CX Shares slip below HK8

[kahaha]

And so has been the case for the last few months, the sinking feeling of the plummeting value of Cathay Pacific. Another 10% and we will be in uncharted territory regarding possible takeover bids or share swops. Cant be long before Qatar wants an increased slice.

But before then , there’s that small matter of fat cat pilots sat on their backsides , ( literally) earning far too much in the current climate.

But hey, at least the hk$ is strong and the GBP weak . Very weak, time to cash in and run to retirement. Lol.

[mngmt mole]

You seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder regarding the higher earning pilots in the airline. The pilots who have dedicated most if not all of their aviation careers to CX and HK (and their families futures as well). I suppose you would simply like us all to walk off the gang plank and drown in the sea. Then the newbies can get what is "rightfully" theirs. Ok, got it Kahaha...thank you.

[cxorcist]

You seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder regarding the higher earning pilots in the airline. The pilots who have dedicated most if not all of their aviation careers to CX and HK (and their families futures as well). I suppose you would simply like us all to walk off the gang plank and drown in the sea. Then the newbies can get what is "rightfully" theirs. Ok, got it Kahaha...thank you.
So well put! So accurate! So sad!

Some are like dogs hoping their owners get full before finishing their meal so they can get the scraps... and scrape a “career” together.

[Oasis]

This always reminds me of crabs in a bucket, all the crabs want to get out, but as soon as one is about to, the other ones drag it back down.

You should only wish that the better paid ones get worse conditions, if you will actually get better ones because of it, otherwise it will just be you next..

[cxorcist]

This always reminds me of crabs in a bucket, all the crabs want to get out, but as soon as one is about to, the other ones drag it back down.

You should only wish that the better paid ones get worse conditions, if you will actually get better ones because of it, otherwise it will just be you next..
Again, so true! Wish the young ones could understand that concept.

[Sam Ting Wong]

One post( allegedly) by "them" is all you guys need to classify and condemn "the" young. Jesus, really?

PS I am surprised Cathay stock is STILL at 8ish. I wouldn't buy it for 5.

[highflyer40]

After the passing of new legislation yesterday and the way China is exerting it’s control do you really think any foreign country would even think of taking over or buying shares in CX?

I would think CX will be a pariah on the international stage.

[Sam Ting Wong]

My guess is you are sitting on huge paper losses. Since I don't, who is the financial moron?

I also never disputed the free float share proportion of Cathay stock, or did I?

I said I personally would not buy Cathay for 5. Cathay will be a different and most probably significant smaller company in the future.
In my opinion this will be reflected in the share price. It's just my opion and I have (obviously) no idea where the price will be in the future. Nobody knows.

A future cash shortage might lead to an increase of the free flow share. Or one of the current institutional share holders might want to exit. Which means existing shares might suffer, regardless how high the proportion of institutional holders is today.I would not claim to be an expert stock trader ( and never have), but as far as I know large institutional ownership share in public traded companies are rather the norm than the exception. Many other airlines have similar shareholder constructs, e.g. easyjet. To conclude this would somehow automatically safeguard a stock from devaluating is certainly wrong.

If you think otherwise, now is the chance to buy for you. No need to insult me, just put your money where your mouth is and reap your profits later.

I personally never understood why employees buy the stock of their own employer in the first place. If your company goes belly up you lose your job and your assets. But that's just me.

[ACMS]

best post I’ve seen all year......

LMAO.



STW and Unitedabx, the two of you clearly have the combined IQ of the yellow pages, i.e zero.
The share price is nigh on irrelevant if the majority is held by institutional shareholders. i.e. it is not traded.
When the share price goes below $8 historically Swire has bought up any stock listed for sale which has in the past pushed the price back up. This time does not seem to be the case. Care to give a thought to the possible reasons why? Perhaps cash may be king when lots of cheap airframes come on the market to fill the void of reduced comeptition.
A quick search will confirm the following :
Swire Pacific Limited 45%
Air China Limited 29.99%
Qatar Airways (QCSC) 9.99%
Public shareholding 15.02%

On a normal trading day less than 1/3 of 1% of the stock is traded.
I am now convinced you both ARE PILOTS because you are financial morons !

[Dan Winterland]

I personally never understood why employees buy the stock of their own employer in the first place. If your company goes belly up you lose your job and your assets.

The best financial advice you can get as a pilot is to see what your colleagues are doing, then do the opposite!

[SaulGoodman]

CX has something a lot of other carriers do not have. An extremely strong home base cargo market. Both belly and full freighters. Which means they have cashflow. Yes, the current climate is dire. But compared to many others CX are relatively well positioned for the future. My 2c

[highflyer40]

CX has something a lot of other carriers do not have. An extremely strong home base cargo market. Both belly and full freighters. Which means they have cashflow. Yes, the current climate is dire. But compared to many others CX are relatively well positioned for the future. My 2c

With the current Covid and the Chinese hardline I would very much disagree with you. At the very least you are in as much trouble as the rest. At the worst you are screwed royally.

The reality will probably lie somewhere in the middle which still puts you worse than the rest. Hold on to your hats, the times are changing!

[azhkman]

After the passing of new legislation yesterday and the way China is exerting it’s control do you really think any foreign country would even think of taking over or buying shares in CX?

I would think CX will be a pariah on the international stage.

If Qatar were to boost its stake it would like only be with a wink & nod to the mainland to go along to get along with the rebranding "Air China HK", or any number of initiatives the board may have later on.

[nike]

If Qatar were to boost its stake it would like only be with a wink & nod to the mainland to go along to get along with the rebranding "Air China HK", or any number of initiatives the board may have later on.


Did you actually put "like" into a written sentence?

It's bad enough having to listen to someone say it every sentence, sometimes twice in a sentence....but now people are actually writing it in, as if, it's actually part of a normal sentence.

[YeahNahYeah]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-09/cathay-swire-pacific-air-china-suspend-trading-in-h-k?srnd=premium-asia

"Embattled Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/293:HK) and its two main shareholders Swire Pacific Ltd. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/19:HK) and Air China Ltd. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/753:HK) suspended trading of their shares on Tuesday, pending an announcement."

Something's afoot!

[Sam Ting Wong]

STW and Unitedabx, the two of you clearly have the combined IQ of the yellow pages, i.e zero.
The share price is nigh on irrelevant if the majority is held by institutional shareholders. i.e. it is not traded.
When the share price goes below $8 historically Swire has bought up any stock listed for sale which has in the past pushed the price back up. This time does not seem to be the case. Care to give a thought to the possible reasons why? Perhaps cash may be king when lots of cheap airframes come on the market to fill the void of reduced comeptition.
A quick search will confirm the following :
Swire Pacific Limited 45%
Air China Limited 29.99%
Qatar Airways (QCSC) 9.99%
Public shareholding 15.02%

On a normal trading day less than 1/3 of 1% of the stock is traded.
I am now convinced you both ARE PILOTS because you are financial morons !

Firewall,

institutional shareholders don't guarantee a minimum price, and even if they miraculously would, the composition and shares of these institutional investors can obviously change.

With the state bail out the latter happened.

Perhaps now we will see a significant dillution. Or maybe not, nobody knows.

Your lectures about how it all works on the stock market, your big insights on trading volumes, imaginary safety nets... not only simply wrong, but ludicrous and arrogant.

[Intrance]

Did you actually put "like" into a written sentence?

It's bad enough having to listen to someone say it every sentence, sometimes twice in a sentence....but now people are actually writing it in, as if, it's actually part of a normal sentence.

I do enjoy how you squirmed out of saying "like it's actually part of..." Like, as if using the word like there would have totally made your point redundant Becky.
Also, I feel the post that got you up on the grammar high horse probably meant to say "likely".

[kahaha]

Shares in CX at hk$6.8 at the end of trading today.
The slide continues, yet what is actually being done to stem the losses?

No layoffs, why? BA 12000 jobs
VA has shed 500 pilots . Ryanair 3000 pilots.
These airlines are now recovering.

Will business ever return to pre covid levels?
Not for years . There is growing anti china sentiment amoung the populations of the developed world. Common folk are trying to avoid Chinese produced products. Currently a different task, but the momentum is building .

But cx management think air travel via hk will rebound before the cash and bonuses run out .

Who knows. I’m betting the shares will continue their slide , the airline will have to lay off some of all those folks they kerp at cx city .

I mean , what do they all really do for those 90 min lunch breaks in the cx canteen?

[Farman Biplane]

When the bailout share split happens then the "real" value of the shares will be below $4.68, which is the strike price for the HKGov warrants/options.
Remember only 15% public float as well.

[AllWobbly]

Shares in CX at hk$6.8 at the end of trading today.
The slide continues, yet what is actually being done to stem the losses?

No layoffs, why? BA 12000 jobs
VA has shed 500 pilots . Ryanair 3000 pilots.
These airlines are now recovering.

Will business ever return to pre covid levels?
Not for years . There is growing anti china sentiment amoung the populations of the developed world. Common folk are trying to avoid Chinese produced products. Currently a different task, but the momentum is building .

But cx management think air travel via hk will rebound before the cash and bonuses run out .

Who knows. I’m betting the shares will continue their slide , the airline will have to lay off some of all those folks they kerp at cx city .

I mean , what do they all really do for those 90 min lunch breaks in the cx canteen?


At the moment I reckon (my guess):
1. Looking at which routes will be viable
2. Working out fleet and headcount reductions
3. Spending a lot of time with lawyers to avoid court cases and seeing how much room they have to manoeuvre re contracts, seniority, residency etc.
4. as per 3 but working out how to implement a new contracts

The bailout gives them breathing space that’s all

[cxorcist]

At the moment I reckon (my guess):
1. Looking at which routes will be viable
2. Working out fleet and headcount reductions
3. Spending a lot of time with lawyers to avoid court cases and seeing how much room they have to manoeuvre re contracts, seniority, residency etc.
4. as per 3 but working out how to implement a new contracts

The bailout gives them breathing space that’s all
That’s a pretty expensive way to take one’s time figuring out what to do. I bet wartime generals wish they had nine months to figure it all out too, but they don’t, never have, never will. Good leadership involves making good decisions IN A TIMELY fashion, not simply taking your sweet time. The pilot contracts have provision for redundancies, either use it or get off the pot. If CX doesn’t like LIFO, then they should never have put it into the contracts.

[kahaha]

The are reluctant to loose the D scale brush wing brigade. A third the price of a B scale FO and when they make command, a much broader saving .

I suspect voluntary redundancies , extended unpaid first . CX don’t want to make anyone redundant, they are the National airline .

[AllWobbly]

That’s a pretty expensive way to take one’s time figuring out what to do. I bet wartime generals wish they had nine months to figure it all out too, but they don’t, never have, never will. Good leadership involves making good decisions IN A TIMELY fashion, not simply taking your sweet time. The pilot contracts have provision for redundancies, either use it or get off the pot. If CX doesn’t like LIFO, then they should never have put it into the contracts.


Sure is. As I said it’s purely a guess. I believe they thought it would be over by the summer, now perhaps by Autumn. Failing that after a vaccine is produced.
Have you seen the latest from BA an airline operating in an environment with “solid” protections?

[AllWobbly]

And so has been the case for the last few months, the sinking feeling of the plummeting value of Cathay Pacific. Another 10% and we will be in uncharted territory regarding possible takeover bids or share swops. Cant be long before Qatar wants an increased slice.

But before then , there’s that small matter of fat cat pilots sat on their backsides , ( literally) earning far too much in the current climate.

But hey, at least the hk$ is strong and the GBP weak . Very weak, time to cash in and run to retirement. Lol.


No thanks
Coronation Street, the weather, the food (I’d be an even fatter cat) , the tax , breakfast tv and the tabloids.

[cxorcist]

Sure is. As I said it’s purely a guess. I believe they thought it would be over by the summer, now perhaps by Autumn. Failing that after a vaccine is produced.
Have you seen the latest from BA an airline operating in an environment with “solid” protections?
No, and I don’t care (although I wish them all the best) because it’s completely irrelevant. Their contract has nothing to do with ours and vice versa.

[doolay]

If CX doesn’t like LIFO, then they should never have put it into the contracts.

I don't think they like LIFO very much, they surreptiously removed it from POS18 a month ago as they can amend it 'from time to time.'
However it is very clearly written in the rest of our COS's.

[AllWobbly]

No, and I don’t care (although I wish them all the best) because it’s completely irrelevant. Their contract has nothing to do with ours and vice versa.

I don’t agree. I would argue that BA crews with BALPA behind them have always been in a stronger position. The reason it’s relevant is if it can happen to BA it can happen to anyone.
I hope you are right.

[cxorcist]

I don’t agree. I would argue that BA crews with BALPA behind them have always been in a stronger position. The reason it’s relevant is if it can happen to BA it can happen to anyone.
I hope you are right.
If CX renegs on their contracts, watch the morale amongst pilots descend to never seen lows, and it’s been REALLY bad at times in the last three decades. By now, CX knows the devastating consequences of having crews work against the Company.

[From a distance]

If CX renegs on their contracts, watch the morale amongst pilots descend to never seen lows, and it’s been REALLY bad at times in the last three decades. By now, CX knows the devastating consequences of having crews work against the Company.


Devastating. Really. Not too much devastation obvious pre Covid. Contract compliance was akin to a mosquito attempting to bite a rhinos arse. I didn’t see one solitary example of anyone taking it further and working against the company.

Those that still have a job will continue to take flight plan fuel, do RETI etc.

For those still here Morale will improve when there is a plan. For those of us finding ourselves on the outside looking in, CX, HKG, HKG public won’t give a damn about our Morale. It’s just business.

[Progress Wanchai]

Devastating. Really. Not too much devastation obvious pre Covid. Contract compliance was akin to a mosquito attempting to bite a rhinos arse. I didn’t see one solitary example of anyone taking it further and working against the company.

Those that still have a job will continue to take flight plan fuel, do RETI etc.

For those still here Morale will improve when there is a plan. For those of us finding ourselves on the outside looking in, CX, HKG, HKG public won’t give a damn about our Morale. It’s just business.

Exactly.

Fear of losing a job can be every bit as motivational as the reward of a pay rise. I’d be guessing but after the restructure is complete anyone still left here will probably have a sense of relief rather than a destructive bitterness.

I know it’s hard for pilots to do but don’t think this is all about yourselves. 90% of the company employees from cabin crew to check in staff to engineers to the sales team don’t have a LIFO clause in their contracts. Yet they are still here just like us. The company is formulating a restructuring plan and once approved it will be implemented. The timeframe to formulate the plan can be questioned, but it’s fanciful to suggest the timeframe is a result of the company “not liking” one clause in one employee groups contracts that is worth no more than the legislation that makes the contract binding.

Again it’s hard for control freaks to get their heads around they aren’t in control of aspects of their future. This belief that it won’t be me because of my seniority number/my contract/my overseas base/my Hong Kong base/my PR status/my title/insert self preservation excuse here, is a case study in human psychology.
The sooner you accept it could quite possibly be you and formulate a plan B that doesn’t involve studying the seniority list then the better off you and your family will be.

[fly1981]

Exactly.

Fear of losing a job can be every bit as motivational as the reward of a pay rise. I’d be guessing but after the restructure is complete anyone still left here will probably have a sense of relief rather than a destructive bitterness.

I know it’s hard for pilots to do but don’t think this is all about yourselves. 90% of the company employees from cabin crew to check in staff to engineers to the sales team don’t have a LIFO clause in their contracts. Yet they are still here just like us. The company is formulating a restructuring plan and once approved it will be implemented. The timeframe to formulate the plan can be questioned, but it’s fanciful to suggest the timeframe is a result of the company “not liking” one clause in one employee groups contracts that is worth no more than the legislation that makes the contract binding.

Again it’s hard for control freaks to get their heads around they aren’t in control of aspects of their future. This belief that it won’t be me because of my seniority number/my contract/my overseas base/my Hong Kong base/my PR status/my title/insert self preservation excuse here, is a case study in human psychology.
The sooner you accept it could quite possibly be you and formulate a plan B that doesn’t involve studying the seniority list then the better off you and your family will be.

well said...

[Farman Biplane]

All valid points, but no reason to ignore the very part of a contract that was established and agreed upon to cater for events such as this one.
Ultimately the COS have a 3 month notice to terminate (or payment in lieu) clause.

[AllWobbly]

All valid points, but no reason to ignore the very part of a contract that was established and agreed upon to cater for events such as this one.
Ultimately the COS have a 3 month notice to terminate (or payment in lieu) clause.

Unless the business you work for is insolvent

[hyg]

Unless the business you work for is insolvent

or if they just pay him the 3 months?

[cxorcist]

Unless the business you work for is insolvent
If CX goes insolvent, then the whole conversation is moot. The point is to keep CX from insolvency by right sizing the airline to meet demand. We have a mechanism for that, so either use it or negotiate with the pilot unions for something different (more basings, early retirements, partial pay leave of absences, etc).

I’m quite fatigued by loudmouth brats claiming protection derived purely from cheapness. That’s a ridiculous claim and one that should be firmly rebuked every time it is raised. It comes from a place of entitlement and ignorance. Pay your dues young pilots. The possibility of furlough is and was reality for every pilot on any seniority list, ever. I swear this new generation has lost the plot.

Who raised these twats? Oh, that’s right, we did. We really did a horrible job. Where did we go wrong? I honestly tried, but obviously failed. Perhaps the influence of technology has convinced these cretins that they can simply ignore the generations preceding them. They want what they want when they want it. No waiting! Socialism now! To hell with the consequences. If it feels good, do it.

[kahaha]

Lets not forget most airlines "may" "Could" or "Possibly" lay off thousands. Its not happened for pilots at BA, and Virgin are now sitting pretty due to
Brandson ringing up his financial mates. Would you really invest a trust fund in an airline over the next 5 years?

The CX and more predominantly KA market is China driven. A global back lash against China will affect yields. No need for 16 flights to PVG every day.

I doubt there will be redundancies. More likely no recruitment and natural wastage. The Gov have bailed the group out, so no issues this year.

CX management will have to show willing though. A drive for efficiencies, streamlining ... Oh , I nearly forgot, that's been going on for the last 2 years, and the net result is ?

Yep, it may suck in HK, but its safer than the rest of the world. Just don't complain about the system to anyone, everyone's being watched by big brother now LOL.

[doolay]

A drive for efficiencies, streamlining ... Oh , I nearly forgot, that's been going on for the last 2 years,

Actually, it's been going on for the last 27 years.

[LongTimeInCX]

Actually, it's been going on for the last 27 years.

Yes indeed!
Who, of those around at the time, could forget the silver haired gerbil master and the "commitment days" of 1994.
The classic upside down graph.

[Dsteve]

all those hoping for LIFO "because it's in our contract"... you are aware who your employer is right?
grabs popcorn

[cxorcist]

all those hoping for LIFO "because it's in our contract"... you are aware who your employer is right?
grabs popcorn
Yep, we know far better than you because we’ve been here a lot longer than a D (scale) Steve.
Grabs bourbon and patio chair...

[controlledrest]

all those hoping for LIFO "because it's in our contract"... you are aware who your employer is right?
grabs popcorn

If redundancies occur they will be LIFO for at least two reasons:

Enough crew are based in civilised countries where contracts are enforceable

POS18 crew bring so little experience to the operation that too much of a push towards them will result in a hull loss (twice when I was a FO, ex-cadet Captains tried to crash the aeroplane due to a lack of real experience and knowledge).

[LLLQNH]

If redundancies occur they will be LIFO for at least two reasons:

Enough crew are based in civilised countries where contracts are enforceable

POS18 crew bring so little experience to the operation that too much of a push towards them will result in a hull loss (twice when I was a FO, ex-cadet Captains tried to crash the aeroplane due to a lack of real experience and knowledge).

LIFO with 3 man long haul coming your way, 600 or so pilots to go is the rumour. Hopefully this can be reduced through measures by working with the pilot body! In order to make lifo work we will have to agree to 3 man long-haul and various other rostering concessions, as the majority of the most junior 600 are second officers and as a result 3 man long haul.

If they can get the number of involuntary redundancies down to bellow 200 through various schemes some might say it's a good result, either way a crying shame. Non the less when the involuntary redundancies come they must be in LIFO order, and it's time for management to address this and stop all this nonsense.

[main_dog]

Many of the last in are quite young. This pandemic will eventually play itself out: if people need to be let go, it would be nice if they were put on a re-hire list and keep the same seniority number.

[LLLQNH]

Many of the last in are quite young. This pandemic will eventually play itself out: if people need to be let go, it would be nice if they were put on a re-hire list and keep the same seniority number.

Thats exactly what would happen the COS mentions this, all airlines the world over have very similar clauses in their contracts! Many of the more senior pilots in Cathay would have been through one or two Furloughs and re-hires already, welcome to the airline industry!

I would guess if and it's still a big if Cathay were to make pilots redundant they would all be back on property flying within 3 years.

[Brown Nose]

3 man long haul, with a **** load of pilots sitting at home doing nothing, that makes perfect CX sense

[LLLQNH]

3 man long haul, with a **** load of pilots sitting at home doing nothing, that makes perfect CX sense

It does make perfect sense after they have made a whole bunch redundant.

[cxorcist]

Wow seems like people are wishing their housing away! Wishing our overtime threshold away! Wishing a reduction in medical! Wishing a reduction in schooling! Make no mistake, this will all go before any pilot!
Be careful what you wish for!

I think it's now time we as pilots work with the company, take a knock on the chin and take a reduction, be it over 2 years, to save all of our pilots jobs. The junior guys will give up 50% of their salary but the question is will the senior guys do that? Maybe have a look what's happing in the states, how the senior guys are stepping aside to preserve aviation and the future of aviation. At a cost of course!
In other words, destroy the contract to save a few jobs. I think not young learner. Break out a history book mate. Once a pilot group makes concessions, they never get those back. Wake up!

[GTC58]

It is quite simple. The restructured CX will be significant smaller then it is now. As such staffing levels will be adjusted accordingly. How this will be done? Cancellation of recognition & GFBA agreement and talk about getting away from legacy thinking should give everyone a good idea what will come in Q4.

[Bekol delay]

It is quite simple. The restructured CX will be significant smaller then it is now. As such staffing levels will be adjusted accordingly. How this will be done? Cancellation of recognition & GFBA agreement and talk about getting away from legacy thinking should give everyone a good idea what will come in Q4.
Exactly this, stop kidding yourselves.

[LongTimeInCX]

Maybe have a look what's happing in the states, how the senior guys are stepping aside to preserve aviation and the future of aviation.
Spoken like a true millennial, who is nervous and close enough to the bottom of the seniority list to start spouting how he thinks it should be done. There's a procedure in the COS to cover this potential reduction in numbers.
No need for Johnny come lately's to try and re-write that aspect to save his shiny new job. Nice try though.
The US majors, and their respective contracts are completely different from the HK environment and the CX CoS. No point to compare Dragon fruit and apples.

[Krone]

It is quite simple. The restructured CX will be significant smaller then it is now. As such staffing levels will be adjusted accordingly. How this will be done? .

Covid is back. Do CX management have the resourcefulness to orchestrate anything significant before the green shoots of recovery are decimated by another lockdown?

Well , the gov bailout has ensured we can all still afford to drink at McSorleys to ease the pain of our sunburn , hick.

here’s to being Dumb, happy & doing F%@k all :)

[Steve the Pirate]

For all speaking of LIFO (which I agree with by the way), what if a contract doesn't have a clause that specifically states that all pilots will be treated homogeneously should redundancies occur? Could that mean that those pilots who do have the provision written into their contract might be affected before those who don't, meaning the latter might benefit from not being on a common redundancy list?

Just a thought.

STP

[kahaha]

One post( allegedly) by "them" is all you guys need to classify and condemn "the" young. Jesus, really?

PS I am surprised Cathay stock is STILL at 8ish. I wouldn't buy it for 5.

You were so right, its now $5.23 , will you be buying when it slumps below $5 this week?

Even the rights shares at 45 cents have had a luke warm response.

CX at sub $4 values will really shake thingsup.
All A ans B scalers really need to look in the mirror and say is it right that Im bleeding my company dry, to keep my boat afloat?
( in some cases literally )

[Bangaluru]

You were so right, its now $5.23 , will you be buying when it slumps below $5 this week?

Even the rights shares at 45 cents have had a luke warm response.

CX at sub $4 values will really shake thingsup.
All A ans B scalers really need to look in the mirror and say is it right that Im bleeding my company dry, to keep my boat afloat?
( in some cases literally )

I had a look, and my moral conscience isn’t bothered at all. But I did have the best laugh of my day at your post so thanks a heap..

[Slasher1]

You were so right, its now $5.23 , will you be buying when it slumps below $5 this week?

Even the rights shares at 45 cents have had a luke warm response.

CX at sub $4 values will really shake thingsup.
All A ans B scalers really need to look in the mirror and say is it right that Im bleeding my company dry, to keep my boat afloat?
( in some cases literally )

When 3 shareholders own 85 percent of the stock (2 of which own 75 percent) its share price is irrelevant. You have what is effectively a holding company partnership — which this airline has been for many many years. The ‘shareholder’ concept being there solely to exploit the liability benefits of a public traded company.

[Dragon69]

CX at sub $4 values will really shake thingsup.
All A ans B scalers really need to look in the mirror and say is it right that Im bleeding my company dry, to keep my boat afloat?
( in some cases literally )

You obviously have little children here like Kahaha and pickuptruck that believe being compensated fairly for your profession is somehow immoral and wrong, you should instead work minimum wage and have a miserable life so that upper management fatten their bank accounts on the backs of the workforce. Talk about the modern slave, management whip not even needed, they're doing a great job whipping themselves ...LMAO!

[Numero Crunchero]

Ahhhh I've missed reading PPRUNE ;-) So entertaining - Jerry Springer meets Aviation

I feel like much of what is said is like the passengers on the titanic arguing about their relative chances of survival- "I am on the poop deck, so I will survive" - "I got a stool at the bar, so I will survive" - "I was the first to book so I will survive" etc etc

For anyone who wants to rely on COS to save you - please read the 49ers book. Or those in the 'first world" read how Joyce grounded QF in 2011 for no particular reason(he made up some). Or look at all the bases closed despite us still flying there. Anything can be justified - and good luck getting a 1st world country's court imposing its' will on a small part of communist china. Study our history - and remember that was when things were 'normal' not under global financial distress.

I can make a business case for closing bases - keeping bases open - shrinking bases - expanding bases. A case can be made for anything - getting rid of senior guys like me, or getting rid of junior pilots. Stop wasting times with theoretical what-ifs; just deal with what actually happens not what might happen.

Pilots hate, more than most people hate, the lack of control. What is clearly NOT in our control is covid/vaccine/things getting back to normal. What is in your control - how you choose to live your life between now and more 'certainty' being provided. Either you have a CX/KA job in a year's time or you don't. What if you had 18months left to live? Would you spend your time worrying/complaining about what is happening.

All I know for sure is I will get 3 months pay if I am terminated. In my time here - things were incredibly uncertain/scary in end of 1992/early 1993 commitment days, 1994(new contract), 1999 sign or be fired, 2001 49ers, 2001 9-11, 2008-09 GFC/Swine flu, 2017 HPE, 2020- covid19.

One thing I know for sure - I was happy before cathay, happy at cathay and I will be happy after cathay. Yes I would like to get some more $$$ given some poor life choices - but whatever. Life is too short to make money, job or title responsible for my happiness.


Enjoy the free time while it lasts- or not - that is up to you.

[Curry Lamb]

Excellent post, señor

[OK4Wire]

Spoken like a true stoic, NC. :)

[Fly747]

Best FH post I’ve seen for a long time NC. Reasoned and pragmatic.

[main_dog]

NC, would you please stop injecting reason, logic and rationality into the discussion.

Normal service will resume shortly.

:}

[crwkunt roll]

All A ans B scalers really need to look in the mirror and say is it right that Im bleeding my company dry,
Is it right that you are bleeding my oxygen supply dry?
Sorry snowflake but I can't afford to retire on my pride or moral conscience either.

[raven11]

First time back on FH for a long time.....

Totally agree with NC...He and I have been on this train for nearly 30 years so its no surprise that we share the same views.

It’s sad watching the world fall apart, most people are losing their minds. People living in fear of expressing an opinion that might incite the mob.

The ancient Greeks, the Romans, the Byzantines...Western evolution through the ages brought down to rubble over a virus with a 99.5% survival rate. Heroes of the ages would be dumbstruck watching the Karens and Kens of the modern world shut down the global economy, while screaming for everyone to wear a mask. Future historians will marvel at how easily it was all brought down.

In case anyone hasn’t yet considered it...the question surely must be...what happens when the next flue virus arrives, and the one after that?

I’ll likely be in a retirement home, please just wheel me closer to the dinner table.

[Sam Ting Wong]

You are massively simplifying and overlooking the real issue, Raven.

The crucial point never was the mortality rate, it is the hospitalisation rate that is the problem. Without measurements against the spread, no health system in any country could cope. Millions would require care within a few weeks. Capacity limits would be breached instantly, and nobody could get hospital or medical help anymore, not for any other illness, nor for any accident, birth or prevention.

And this in return would result in casualties much higher than your 0.5%. People would lay siege to hospitals, parents would beg for help for their children, it would be an absolute catastrophic and apocalyptic scenario.

A Scientific estimate by Imperial is e.g. 40 million deaths without any preventive measurements, and that doesn't even include capacity issues.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196496/coronavirus-pandemic-could-have-caused-40/

Naturally, this in turn would lead to economic collapse as well. The idea we all would happily carry on while morgues overflow is of course absurd.

Imagine stepping out of your door knowing that no medical help will be available no matter what. Mind you, in a world with billions of infected people around you. Would you go to work or shop? On a business trip or holiday? Would there still be police in the street, a fireman, a soldier, a flight attendant willing to work? Would the workers in power stations carry on? In hospitals, in care homes? And also good luck with your amazon order, I am sure the delivery man on minimum wage will risk his life for you.

Now, whether there would have been better strategies time will tell, but it is not as simple as you suggest. Not even close.
For some reason, a lot of pilots seem to always fall for simple and radical solutions, no problem is too complex, we know it all.

Sigh.

[raven11]

Sam,
At the beginning of this pandemic, when we knew little or nothing about it, yes we certainly needed to do all that you suggest. To do otherwise would have been irresponsible. However, we’ve now gone far beyond flattening the curve in order for our hospitals to cope...do you remember when that was the stated intention and goal?

Now that the curve has been flattened, and now that we understand the threat better, we would be wise to tailor our efforts and concentrate our focus on protecting those under the greatest threat: the aged and those with comorbidities.

Most of our hospitals are now empty. Hospital staff are being layed off in some places. People are foregoing all manner of other medical needs, cancer or preventative care...what will the consequences of that be? Combined with a global economic shutdown, our current trajectory is simply not sustainable. It doesn’t matter how smart some people might think that they are. On our current course the unintended consequences will overwhelm us at some point. And make no mistake, that point is not far. This thread is an example of the consequences to come, massive job losses and economic ruin are being anticipated.

A continued shut down of all the sectors of our economic life and individual freedoms will eventually result in wide scale disaster. Now is the time for us to take stock in what we’ve learned and begin to fine tune our strategy. While we wait for a possible vaccine or other therapeutics we must begin to carefully open up our economies while focusing on protecting those that are most vulnerable to the virus. For example, the amazon driver need not risk his life for me, but those people that have contracted the virus and have the antibodies should be allowed to return to their jobs. Instead people under little or no risk of contracting the virus are ordered to remain indoors under penalty of law.

Instead of a nuanced and intelligent approach, all I see and hear are people effectively advocating for an infinite shutdown. There’s even talk of people rejecting a vaccine until it’s efficacy has been proven beyond all doubt. Talk about simple and radical?

You’re right though, time will tell. And it’s judgement will not be kind.

As I alluded to earlier, at my point in life’s journey I won’t be the one most impacted...although I live in fear for my children and grand children. Just wheel this old fool closer to the dinner table.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Agreed in principle, Raven.

I would argue most of your suggestions are in progress, but sure, possibly we went too far. Or not far enough, China ironically seems to be better. I am for sure not claiming to have the answer. 👍

[cxorcist]

Agreed in principle, Raven.

I would argue most of your suggestions are in progress, but sure, possibly we went too far. Or not far enough, China ironically seems to be better. I am for sure not claiming to have the answer. 👍
Anyone believing statistics of any kind from Mainland China needs to have their head examined.

One statistic I do believe is that 53% of COVID deaths come from 0.6% of the global population. Perhaps those and persons with known co-morbidities need to be isolated while the rest of us get on with it utilizing masks, social distancing, ventilation, cleaning, etc.

Of course, anyone wanting to self isolate in fear of the virus can do so (including Presidential candidates), but they cannot tell others that they have to do the same. I reject that and all forms of authoritarianism (ie ChiCom Party).

Just because China released this virus onto the world doesn’t mean we have to respond to it as they do. Perhaps that was their intention all along???

[Sam Ting Wong]

I actually agree, maybe we should explore ways to isolate risk groups. I also share your scepticism about Chinese statistics.

However, there are two flaws in your argument, with all due respect.

First, you reject the right of any government to restrict movement of its citizens, in principle. How can you then order members of the risk group to self- isolate?

Second, you did not address the problem of hospitalization. Your ratio of 0.6% is a mortality rate. A free movement of the remaining 99.4% of the population, as you suggest, would still cause the collapse of any health system.

[cxorcist]

I actually agree, maybe we should explore ways to isolate risk groups. I also share your scepticism about Chinese statistics.

However, there are two flaws in your argument, with all due respect.

First, you reject the right of any government to restrict movement of its citizens, in principle. How can you then order members of the risk group to self- isolate?

Second, you did not address the problem of hospitalization. Your ratio of 0.6% is a mortality rate. A free movement of the remaining 99.4% of the population, as you suggest, would still cause the collapse of any health system.
The US has, for all intensive purposes, free movement with a few states and cities as exceptions. Yes, the infections (and testing rates) are high, yet the hospital systems are nowhere close to being overwhelmed. In fact, many are laying off staff (the opposite of all hands on deck). There have been instances of potential hospital capacity problems (ie NYC, NJ, Houston, etc.); but those have been managed well imo. In those instances, perhaps restrictions are appropriate???

As to your other point, if the 0.6% wants to gamble with their life, that is 100% their choice. Most of those I know are being quite careful without having to be told.

[SloppyJoe]

The reason Hong Kong is talking about the hospital system not being able to cope is because EVERY SINGLE person with coronavirus goes into an isolation ward, even if they have no symptoms but tested positive. The hospital system has not collapsed anywhere. All the extra hospitals built in the UK were pretty much unused and it has so far been one of the worst affected countries. Doctors in the UK are now saying if there is a second peak it is absurd to restrict other non covid patients as more people will die. No one could start cancer treatment during this madness.

In Australia about 250 people have died, they have pretty much shut the country, 1,300 die of flu. WTF is going on. Has the hospital system in the US collapsed? Millions infected. Yes lots have died also but to be honest it is inevitable, the world is just prolonging this and destroying the economy by doing so.

As someone who is not in a risk group although understand it could still kill me, I would happily go about life expecting to get it at some point and take the 0.06% chance so as to not f**k up the world for everyone else. Advise those at risk to isolate and give them all the government support possible, food deliveries, doctor home visits etc, if your not at risk but too scared be an adult and resign so as to not be a burden on society, someone else will take your job. Of course this will never happen as it is all driven by the fear the media creates and politicians wanting to score points. Absolute fing madness.

Who can isolate for 5 years? You can't, so those at risk are going to be at far greater risk. A year is possible, let it rip through society and give those at risk a chance of sticking it out. 85 million died in WWII, willingly going so that their country, children, family could have a better future. This is nothing compared to that, miniscule, yet the world is on it's knees. It's pathetic.