Virgin 2.0 to swap A330s and B777s for Boing 787s

[MelbourneFlyer]

"Latest reports on the shape on 'Virgin 2.0’ say the administrator's vision for the new airline includes replacing its six Airbus A330s (all leased) and five Boeing 777-300ERs (one leased, four owned) with eight Boeing 787 Dreamliners"

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/virgin-australia-boeing-787

This was on the cards anyway, well not the B787s of course, but JB talked several times about moving to a single type, Paul Scurrah was also known to want out of the A330 leases and get rid of the A330 anyway, so moving to that single type would also have been part of his plan. It really sounds like the administrators are simply presenting Scurrah's plan to the bidders, what with Deloitte's earlier comments about keeping LAX and Tokyo, keeping most of the fleet and most of the employees.

[normanton]

It's all lollipops and rainbows.

International is dead for a long time.

[The Bullwinkle]

JB talked several times about moving to a single type
Yes, he did a lot of talking..............

[A320 Flyer]

With all the good news I keep reading about Virgin Australia, I Hope Qantas go into administration too. That way we’ll get the rest of those 50 odd 787s planned and those sunrise aircraft too...... 😏

[Denied Justice]

A330s and 777s for 787s:

Fantasy land - That will never happen

[compressor stall]

Tell 'em they're dreaming.

[machtuk]

Thank God for PPRune cause ya couldn't dream this **** up if ya tried!

[Plastic787]

Boing boing

[Popgun]

Oh God, just let it die or do the humane thing and euthanise!

More people will be assisted in to a sustainable future if the nonsensical fantasy of Virgin 2.0 is abandoned.

Let it die. There will be pain and grief. Many of the former employees will have a more secure (but lower salary) future in the more lean and competitive organisation.

PG

[ozbiggles]

It has been the dream plan for over 5 years now. It is probably dead in the water for a long time. It has just been dug up by slack arse journos who need to try and fill a few column inches. If you believe everything in the ‘aviation’ news at the moment I have an airline to sell you.

[ABP]

This is simply a proposal from Deloitte to bidders of their view of VA moving forward for maximum benefit. B787 leases will be cheap now due to airlines wanting to cancel their orders. 1x B777 and 6x A330s are leased. Administraton allows for these leases to be cancelled. International travel won't occur properly until 2021, giving VA the time it needs for this fleet replacement should it occur. The efficiencies of one aircraft type that's efficient and had maintenance benefits will outweigh parking 4 owner B777s? Medium-long term, this is a good potential. I don't think it's unreasonable that this will occur. VA's long haul is only a handful of aircraft compared to Qantas. Depsite a slow recovery, it won't take as long for VA to get to full capacity, with some widebody for Perth perhaps too and potentially other destinations.

[Buttscratcher]

That's so cute!
but I think they actually need a solid plan for the future of Virgin, not tunes from Frozen.
Let's bookmark this page for this time next year; come back and marvel at the simple elegance of a hope eternal.

[LostWanderer]

This is simply a proposal from Deloitte to bidders of their view of VA moving forward for maximum benefit. B787 leases will be cheap now due to airlines wanting to cancel their orders. 1x B777 and 6x A330s are leased. Administraton allows for these leases to be cancelled. International travel won't occur properly until 2021, giving VA the time it needs for this fleet replacement should it occur. The efficiencies of one aircraft type that's efficient and had maintenance benefits will outweigh parking 4 owner B777s? Medium-long term, this is a good potential. I don't think it's unreasonable that this will occur. VA's long haul is only a handful of aircraft compared to Qantas. Depsite a slow recovery, it won't take as long for VA to get to full capacity, with some widebody for Perth perhaps too and potentially other destinations.

Scotty from marketing said Oz likely won't fully reopen for international travel til next year sometime, but the actual recovery is going to go well into 2025 or beyond is the general consensus.
Maybe the administrators have information that we don't showing something different, but even at cheap rates, buying/leasing a bunch of 787's when you (theoretically) don't have any idea when demand will return seems like its playing into severe danger. I believe it's safe to say domestic will recover far quicker than international, I'd be focusing on getting into a strong position there before heading into spending money on a fleet of new long haul jets. Losing 1x 777 and the A330's would actually be closer to "right sizing" the airline in some respects.

Up side to the plan is, as pointed out is leases/list prices are going to be dirt cheap. And the type rating from my understanding is either the same or only requires a very small amount of differences training. But even still, leasing or buying jets that don't fly or fly empty is still going to be a huge loss maker.

Now if this fabled second wave hits and a vaccine is as far off as they are saying it could be, if ever...well, it's almost too depressing to think about the impact it will have on the flying public. Won't just be VA in administration in that case.

[Ragnor]

Now if this fabled second wave hits and a vaccine is as far off as they are saying it could be, if ever...well, it's almost too depressing to think about the impact it will have on the flying public. Won't just be VA in administration in that case.

There will be a second wave, if you think there won't be well you're just as delusional as Deloitte and PS thinking that everything is A OK and business as usual because QLD gov are to the rescue. The difference now is the general public are educated on the virus for instant how many here clean their hands every time they see a bottle of sanitizer or are more conscious of rubbing their own face I know I do people wearing mask etc, hygiene practice is far higher now so the spread could be contained as compared to when it first broke out.

[InZed]

People are looking past the fact that Virgin actually OWNS four 777s (and an A330)!

In this market of cheap gas + no one wanting/needing extra capacity, it is hard to see how they will be able to offload them.... The article is BS and a classic ExecTraveller hype article with zero substance.

[Rashid Bacon]

The 777s without large cargo doors are virtually worthless - they have very little capital value.

[foam]

JB talked several times about moving to a single type, Paul Scurrah was also known to want out of the A330 leases and get rid of the A330 anyway, so moving to that single type would also have been part of his plan.

Single Type? What kind of nonsense is this you speak of? :D




Was around 2004-2005 when Brett Godfrey was giving one of his staff roadshows, I was in the crew room with the rest of the staff listening to him as he was extolling the virtues of single type. One of his statements was "as long as my bum is in this seat (referring to the CEO position), Virgin Blue would only ever be a single type operator"...

Wasn't too much later, the E180's started showing up, then the tripler, dirty 330, ATR's, Fookers, even 320's... So much for single type!!! :ugh:

[BNEA320]

It's all lollipops and rainbows.

International is dead for a long time.
yes it will probably be a month before TT flights resume on a regular basis. NZ is talking about YVR to start soon, so you'll be able to fly Australia/AKL/YVR in couple of months & maybe SFO & LAX month after that. It should be noted that flights within USA have not been restricted at all, just less flights, but some are rather full. Announcements about having to wear masks, but these are not being enforced.

So my bets for regular passenger flights (without any quarantine) are:-

OZ domestic - 1 JUNE or maybe intrastate only ?
TT-1 JULY
CANADA-1 AUGUST
USA-1SEPT

What dates are you all betting on ?

[BNEA320]

This is simply a proposal from Deloitte to bidders of their view of VA moving forward for maximum benefit. B787 leases will be cheap now due to airlines wanting to cancel their orders. 1x B777 and 6x A330s are leased. Administraton allows for these leases to be cancelled. International travel won't occur properly until 2021, giving VA the time it needs for this fleet replacement should it occur. The efficiencies of one aircraft type that's efficient and had maintenance benefits will outweigh parking 4 owner B777s? Medium-long term, this is a good potential. I don't think it's unreasonable that this will occur. VA's long haul is only a handful of aircraft compared to Qantas. Depsite a slow recovery, it won't take as long for VA to get to full capacity, with some widebody for Perth perhaps too and potentially other destinations.think TT flights will get back to some sort of normal by 1 July. Then Canada maybe month later, then USA maybe month after that.

Surely V2 will be only B738s ?
No A330s, No B777s flying, but will they be able to sell the 4 x B777s. No A320s, no F100s. What about ATRs ?
If Rex go ahead, I think they will be flying ex VA 738s, with ex VA crews & other VA staff.

[rmm]

OZ domestic - 1 JUNE or maybe intrastate only ?
TT-1 JULY
CANADA-1 AUGUST
USA-1SEPT

What year are you talking about? Your off with the fairies on the USA. Approaching 1.5 million cases and growing.
This will only accelerate once all republican states open up fully.

[Chris2303]

NZ is talking about YVR to start soon, so you'll be able to fly Australia/AKL/YVR in couple of months & maybe SFO & LAX month after that.

There has been nothing in the NZ news about Air NZ restarting any international at all for the foreseeable future and, in fact, Saint Jacinda has made it clear that the border is closed until the end of the year (with the possible exception of Tasman).

Air NZ made no mention of starting anything except Tasman in their Webinar yesterday. Even Pacific is on hold due to the lack of medical facilities in those countries.

You Aussies need to stop dreaming and start listening. Your revered Prime Minister has said "no international until after Christmas".

[normanton]

Just ignore BNEA320. They talk a lot of **** with no substance.

[ozbiggles]

Big paint brush saying 320 represents what Australians think. My opinion is we won’t see any international outside the Tasman for 18 months minimum other than VERY limited services mostly for medical supplies with a few pax chucked in. Tasman is months away too, the states aren’t even close to opening their borders.
I have great fears for the states, that really is years away and therefore Canada by default.

[t_cas]

Big paint brush saying 320 represents what Australians think. My opinion is we won’t see any international outside the Tasman for 18 months minimum other than VERY limited services mostly for medical supplies with a few pax chucked in. Tasman is months away too, the states aren’t even close to opening their borders.
I have great fears for the states, that really is years away and therefore Canada by default.

The USA will be fine. They do not need much. Trade with Mexico will keep them going for a while. The domestic market is huge and resilient.

[BNEA320]

There has been nothing in the NZ news about Air NZ restarting any international at all for the foreseeable future and, in fact, Saint Jacinda has made it clear that the border is closed until the end of the year (with the possible exception of Tasman).

Air NZ made no mention of starting anything except Tasman in their Webinar yesterday. Even Pacific is on hold due to the lack of medical facilities in those countries.

You Aussies need to stop dreaming and start listening. Your revered Prime Minister has said "no international until after Christmas.think about it for a second. Both PMs want tourism dollars to stay in each country not go overseas, cos both countries are worse than broke.

You'd think anyone & everyone posting on here would be talking it up. Look at real estate ... it's stuffed as an investment, but every real estate agent in the country is saying it's not & so is media, cos billions are spent on real estate advertising in Australia every year.

The more people holiday at home, the more jobs will be re-created. It's really that simple. Who ever takes what a pollie says as gospel.

Surprise, "tomorrow"(whenever that is) it will be something like, you've all be so good in Qld with only 6 deaths, we'll reopen the borders.

[UsernameGoesHere]

yes it will probably be a month before TT flights resume on a regular basis. NZ is talking about YVR to start soon, so you'll be able to fly Australia/AKL/YVR in couple of months & maybe SFO & LAX month after that. It should be noted that flights within USA have not been restricted at all, just less flights, but some are rather full. Announcements about having to wear masks, but these are not being enforced.

So my bets for regular passenger flights (without any quarantine) are:-

OZ domestic - 1 JUNE or maybe intrastate only ?
TT-1 JULY
CANADA-1 AUGUST
USA-1SEPT

What dates are you all betting on ?
Definitely not 2020 for International to US. I'm in WA so it'll be much longer for International from here but I think it's sensible that way. The regional passenger flights that will start in Phase 4 for all of the state could help our tourism industry after maybe a few years. Of course it will take a long time but it will happen. Interstate travel should start from Phase 4 which would be later this year (maybe September for WA, July/August for over East?) and then possibly the Trans-Tasman bubble will include flights to/from Perth when the Eastern states would have already had NZ flights operating for a little while longer. I know that Air New Zealand postponed their AKL-JFK by 1 year from October 2020 to October 2021, makes a lot of sense to me. It also depends on when other countries open their borders, I think if anyone in Australia wants to do any sort of planning for a holiday in the near-ish future I would say it would be best to choose somewhere within Australia or maybe New Zealand depending on the trans-Tasman bubble.

[Chris2303]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332155

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says any transtasman travel agreement will not happen quickly and is more than "weeks" away.

Ardern said she could not put a timeframe on when travel to Australia might resume - but warned "it won't be weeks" - it would be longer.

She said she did not want travel to and from Australia to endanger the very low rates of the virus in New Zealand.

However, Flight Centre founder and CEO Graham Turner, said on Friday morning international travel between Australia and New Zealand could be July.

I think I've identified BNEA320 - he is Graham Turner from Flight Centre

[rattman]

You have to define what a restart is, because australia <-> Us flights never stopped. American and united have been running daily flights. Singapore have been running daily as well. Qatar have been running twice daily to some aus capital to doha. International flights never stopped they just massively decreased

It will be when changes to quarrantine happens, they will respond to demand and inrease flights if needed

[BNEA320]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332155

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says any transtasman travel agreement will not happen quickly and is more than "weeks" away.

Ardern said she could not put a timeframe on when travel to Australia might resume - but warned "it won't be weeks" - it would be longer.

She said she did not want travel to and from Australia to endanger the very low rates of the virus in New Zealand.

However, Flight Centre founder and CEO Graham Turner, said on Friday morning international travel between Australia and New Zealand could be July.

I think I've identified BNEA320 - he is Graham Turner from Flight Centre
So if extremely dodgy NZ PM means more than few weeks away, it'll be 6 weeks or less. Why do people keep quoting those with vested interests ?

[BNEA320]

You have to define what a restart is, because australia <-> Us flights never stopped. American and united have been running daily flights. Singapore have been running daily as well. Qatar have been running twice daily to some aus capital to doha. International flights never stopped they just massively decreased

It will be when changes to quarrantine happens, they will respond to demand and inrease flights if needed
restart without any quarantine whatsoever

[DanV2]

You have to define what a restart is, because australia <-> Us flights never stopped. American and united have been running daily flights. Singapore have been running daily as well. Qatar have been running twice daily to some aus capital to doha. International flights never stopped they just massively decreased

It will be when changes to quarrantine happens, they will respond to demand and inrease flights if needed

American doesn't fly to Australia atm.

Aside from the QF/VA operating the government subsidised once-weekly LAX repatriation charters, it's only UA doing the regular scheduled Australia-USA non-stops atm (The sole route being SYD-SFO which is mostly empty pax-wise, carrying mostly freight).

[neilki]

The USA will be fine. They do not need much. Trade with Mexico will keep them going for a while. The domestic market is huge and resilient.
Perhaps even more than you think... Loads for our (admittedly much reduced) operation yesterday out of a North Eastern Hub were in excess of 80%...
Airports are still quiet, but people are flying....

[Walrus1]

Mass tourism can’t start until reasonably priced travel insurance, covering covid19, is available. Don’t hold your breath.

[ozbiggles]

Yes, but they won’t be flying to Aus or NZ on QA,VA or NZ aircraft be they 777 or whatever the media is trying to speculate on for VA. That is what I meant by my concern for the US. It seems America is going to let covid rip across the country so I can’t see down under opening up any boarders to our Seppo mates in the next 12-18 months minimum. The media in Oz have been digging up some old plans to replace their 777s. I can’t see what Virgin Australia are going to do with their 777 Now let alone think about replacing them.

[Chris2303]

Yes, but they won’t be flying to Aus or NZ on QA

No such airline

[wheels_down]

There would probably be a 1-2 year lead time to get a 787 program operational so the 777s can hang around for the moment. A330 fleet all leased and can go right now.

[normanton]

I actually think the creditors will be going for every cent they can get. That includes selling the fully owned 777 frames, even if it means they go dirt cheap.

[ampclamp]

I actually think the creditors will be going for every cent they can get. That includes selling the fully owned 777 frames, even if it means they go dirt cheap.

I think they will have that as one of their plans. Cover all possibilities.

I guess it could depend on what the remaining prospective buyers have in mind. We all know international flying will be a long time coming back to anywhere near pre-covid days.

So, despite the 777s being owned, can they justify hanging on to them 'just in case" OS flying opens up?

Keep them in mothballs indefinitely hoping for an improved market, try to sell them soon at fire sale prices into what must be a massively over supplied used airframe market, or hang and sell upon some recovery?

None are ideal by any stretch.

Like most in the industry I think domestic flying should kick off much sooner than OS flying in any scale.

Are new owners interested in OS flying at all? Is a south Pacific bubble really viable and can that justify keeping the 777s to compete with Air NZ and Qantas?

A lot of crystal ball stuff that's beyond me.

[wheels_down]

Many large corporate contracts Virgin have require USA travel. A large chunk of the corporate revenue will go if they drop USA. They were approaching 40% Corp share (growing, QF falling, does not get a mention anywhere) here so it’s largely a big hit to the bottom line that also then flows to domestic, should they axe the states. Pretty vital piece of the puzzle.

New Zealand is the cash burner and not so reliant on Corp traffic.

777 fleet is 80% owned. One can go, some heavy checks can probably take place forward to burn time.

[coaldemon]

If the Administrators can get the Financial institutions who have loaned money against the B777's to take a haircut then yes they will own them. No real secondary market in wide-bodies right now with Leasing companies offering refinancing at low numbers on the dollar. Not a time to sell them really if they can avoid it. USA won't open up for a long time to Australia though so no where to fly them except on freight operations. As for bringing forward the Heavy maintenance that is the last thing you want to do for cash flow purposes. Every time you open a 12 year aircraft up in a C Check you can expect some nasty surprises. I am sure the Administrator doesn't want to deal with that.... Once they are right to operate to the USA though they may be too big for purpose. Let's hope that this COVID issue comes to an end and things can start to get back to 80% of what was happening before by late next year. I don't like the chances though.

[normanton]

It would be great to keep the 777s, but I just don't see it happening. There is no work for them anytime soon. They burn cash sitting on the ground doing nothing. They own 4 of them, and the creditors will be wanting to sell them for the $$$. The administrators would then try and convince (which they appear to be doing) the new owners to get cheap 787 leases for a replacement. But again, I don't see 787s happening anytime soon.

If Virgin 2.0 has any chance of survival, it really needs to focus on the lean domestic market with one fleet type. Drop everything else, and re-build from scratch.

[hoss]

Totally agree 👍

[ampclamp]

It would be great to keep the 777s, but I just don't see it happening. There is no work for them anytime soon. They burn cash sitting on the ground doing nothing. They own 4 of them, and the creditors will be wanting to sell them for the $$$. The administrators would then try and convince (which they appear to be doing) the new owners to get cheap 787 leases for a replacement. But again, I don't see 787s happening anytime soon.

If Virgin 2.0 has any chance of survival, it really needs to focus on the lean domestic market with one fleet type. Drop everything else, and re-build from scratch.


Hard nosed business absolutely dictates a leaner operation, but where do they make their money against a pretty tough competitor both high end and low end?

That was part of or perhaps the the reason for Borghetti's foray into the business market. Stuck between an entrenched full service carrier with a huge and ubiquitous FF program and a lean LCC that gets help from its parent as required.

Even with a clean slate, life will be tough no what market they target.

I wish them every success. Lots of mates there.