Darwin Hub

[slats11]

When all this is over, I suspect many countries are going to look at reducing their dependence on other countries and moving costs / operations onshore.

I wonder if Qantas / Virgin should look at Darwin as a hub to Europe, rather then Perth or Singapore or ME.

So people can fly from east coast, Adelaide, NZ etc to Darwin, and then connect to Europe.

Sydney to London via Darwin = 17,000km, with Darwin-London 13,860km
Sydney to London via Perth = 17,800km, with Perth-London 14,480km

There is going to be a need to rebuild the economy and give people jobs. Upgrading Darwin airport would be a significant project for the NT.

[krismiler]

A Darwin hub would enable a decent Asian network to be offered from all the capital cities using easier to fill narrow bodies. Main trunk routes such as SYD - SIN will still use non stop widebodies, but routes such as Adelaide to Kuala Lumpur or Perth to Manila would come into play. Darwin could be Australia's Dubai and would give local airlines a significant advantage as they could offer a one stop connection from which ever Asian city they fly to into the domestic network.

[Asturias56]

People don't like hubs and they don't like changing planes - direct, point-to-point is what they want

What the airlines offer is a lower cost to get them to use hubs such as LHR or Dubai

[Duck Pilot]

Don’t think it will be what the pax want, it will be what they get!! Airlines will be looking to save every penny they can when business resumes.

The idea appears to be very plausible particularly given Darwin’s close proximity to Asia and beyond in comparison to the eastern and southern states. They certainly have plenty of room to expand the aerodrome infrastructure and I think the current NTG would jump on board with this.

The Darwin economy certainly needs another long term investment project to kick start the local economy since the LNG construction wound down a few years ago, then add the current crisis.

[bankrunner]

Seems to me that QF has very good commercial reasons to have a hub option that's not Perth.

[Ragnor]

I like it, Perth airport......... well I’ll leave it at that.

[Bend alot]

People don't like hubs and they don't like changing planes - direct, point-to-point is what they want

What the airlines offer is a lower cost to get them to use hubs such as LHR or Dubai
I like hubs even a 24ish hour transfer in Singapore is no problem.

What I hate is being stuck in cattle for greater than about 2.5 hours.

Darwin as a hub, great for 6 months of the year - not so much fun landing then waiting on the apron for 15-20 mins for the lightning to have a break, before going to the gate.

[Lapon]

Other than being a conveniently located piece if tarmac I cant see Darwin having much to offer as a hub.

Singapore is not much further and is already an international gateway, and financial centre. The ME is also a well established gateway, and at least Perth/WA has a poplulation that can attract some oncarrige.

If I remember correctly Jetstar have already found that Darwin doesnt work having had a base there sometime ago.

[Blueskymine]

Bruce tried it with JQ and the pan Asian narrow body strategy.

It didn’t work. JQ went point to point with borrowed 330s and then 787s.

Point to point is the future.

[krismiler]

A non stop flight on a widebody is definitely preferable to connecting flights using narrow bodies, the problem is in filling them. Perth - Ho Chi Minh probably wouldn't support a daily A330 but combining pax from other cities into one aircraft in Darwin could make it viable. If the demand is there A330/B787 could even be used on both sectors with flights reverting to A320/B737 in low season. For many Asian destinations you need to transfer in SIN/BKK or HKG anyway. A Darwin hub would give Australia's airlines a more level playing field when competing with Asia's airlines for regional destinations.

It would be ideal if Sydney had been located where Darwin is instead of in NSW. Non stop to London would have been available for years and onward connections to other cities on arrival in Australia would be much easier.

Travel patterns after restrictions are lifted might be very different to last year. Marginal direct routes could be dropped and a transfer needed instead. The B787 and A320NEO could start replacing B777 and A330s, A380/B747 gone from all but the busiest routes. Reduced frequencies. Definitely fewer pax up the front end paying premium fares.

Eventually travel will return to 2019 levels but it will take time and there will be many changes in the short term.

[slats11]

Yep, the world has changed. Probably forever in some ways, and definitely long term in many ways.

There will be fewer people flying. Even after restrictions are eased, people just won't have the money they used to have. After using Zoom etc for many months, businesses will change and there will be less business flying.

So air travel will have to become more economical. If that means using hubs rather than P2P and using smaller planes and using airports with lower charges, then that will be the price of doing business.
https://www.investopedia.com/bank-of-england-predicts-worst-contraction-since-1706-4844284.
https://www.fin24.com/Economy/World/watch-bank-of-england-predicts-worst-slump-in-300-years-20200508

Would the government be more willing to invest in an expansion of Darwin airport?
Or will manufacturers and carriers be more willing to invest in project sunrise aircraft?

Would you get enough pax from east coast, Adelaide, NZ and south pacific to connect to London via Darwin each day? I expect so.
I also expect you would get enough pax to serve other European cities several times a week.

[Going Boeing]

Darwin is 400NM closer to Northern European Airports than Perth (Great Circle tracks) which means that types like the B787 can carry more payload or fuel when destination weather requires it. It would be good to have an alternative to Perth Airport.

[Scooter Rassmussin]

If Qantas paid for the Infrastructure required in Darwin and took ownership of around 50% then half of their Airport fees would go back into their own pocket. Using Darwin is about Australian jobs for Australia, not Singapore.

[Bend alot]

If Qantas paid for the Infrastructure required in Darwin and took ownership of around 50% then half of their Airport fees would go back into their own pocket. Using Darwin is about Australian jobs for Australia, not Singapore.
I think it was intended for Darwin to be the main international entry/exit port for Australia not to try compete with Singapore as a hub for the region.

[Lapon]

It would be great to see, but in reality it will stay nothing more than a dream.

At the end of the day, Darwin would offer no real improvement in convievence or cost over Singapore, China/HK, or the ME. Most of those have plenty of LOCO and full service carriers offering a plethora of onwards connections anyway.

Other than the romantic idea of Australianism and local jobs, there is no real point. Any investment could be better spent elsewhere.

[dr dre]

I don’t think a hub would work in Darwin.

Flights to Europe from there would be fuel limited. When Darwin ATC makes one sit at a holding point for half an hour or vectors them at minimum speed towards Bathurst Island because there’s a single 210 estimating the field within 15 minutes of their ETA it’d probably render the operation unviable 😉

[dijical]

When all this is over, I suspect many countries are going to look at reducing their dependence on other countries and moving costs / operations onshore.


I'm not sure that a virus pandemic will cause widespread on-shoring. Global trade has held up reasonably well given the circumstances. After all, the most notable shortages were of (Australian made) toilet paper!

[Duck Pilot]

I heard there is a plan to build a new RAAF Base south of Darwin in order to get the RAAF completely out. If this happened I'd imagine it would free up a lot of space for infrastructure and I’d say the airspace would be managed by Airservices and not the RAAF. Build the international terminal and associated facilities on the existing RAAF base, that’s were the original terminal was before anyway, plenty of realestate to play with on that side if the RAAF moved out.

[HK144]

That would be Tindal wouldn't it.

[Bend alot]

I'm not sure that a virus pandemic will cause widespread on-shoring. Global trade has held up reasonably well given the circumstances. After all, the most notable shortages were of (Australian made) toilet paper!
Calling Qantas or Virgin to change flights or get refunds was/is pretty much impossible due overseas call center shut downs.

I am not sure there was ever a shortage of toilet paper (Australian made or other), the shops were noticeably short on a number of items. Construction also are waiting on many materials to arrive and certainly PPE is still a very rare item in Australia.

Given a second wave or a repeat of a similar event, it will either be a swift lockdown or no/minor action - a swift action seems to have been effective for this virus. But clearly we need some better onshore capabilities or reserve capacities, neither are cheap options.

Australian owned catering companies for the aviation industry could be a good start, then they could access Jobkeeper payments

[Bend alot]

That would be Tindal wouldn't it.
I think it is best to have two in that neck of the woods. Shift Darwin to Mt Bundy area.

[HK144]

I think it is best to have two in that neck of the woods. Shift Darwin to Mt Bundy area.
Why would they spend over a Billion redeveloping Tindal to house F35, E7 amongst others and USAF Heavies and build another base costing Billions again 2 hours up the road from Tindal to base what?

[krismiler]

Back in 2008 Jetstar were going to have an international hub in Darwin with seven aircraft based there as part of its Asian strategy. This fizzled out the following year over the lack of agreement with the airport authority over contractual arrangements regarding expansion of the terminal building.

[Bend alot]

Why would they spend over a Billion redeveloping Tindal to house F35, E7 amongst others and USAF Heavies and build another base costing Billions again 2 hours up the road from Tindal to base what?
Redundancy and training in an area that military aircraft may actually be required for military reasons (war games at Mt Bundy team A and Team B at Tindal). Tindal to Darwin or Bundy would neither be a 2 hour trip by car or aircraft.

Mount Bundy also is a current military training area, a reasonable drive from Darwin with a few better amenities than K town for the family type. I also believe the water quality is better in Bundy than K town unless the RAAF have recently rectified that.

[HK144]

Redundancy and training in an area that military aircraft may actually be required for military reasons (war games at Mt Bundy team A and Team B at Tindal). Tindal to Darwin or Bundy would neither be a 2 hour trip by car or aircraft.

Mount Bundy also is a current military training area, a reasonable drive from Darwin with a few better amenities than K town for the family type. I also believe the water quality is better in Bundy than K town unless the RAAF have recently rectified that.
It is 207KM by road from Katherine to Mt Bundy so maybe a bit longer than 2 hours; however by air, just a hop. Katherine is far enough inland to be outside of the most severe cyclones (hence the US interest) and also has ready access to Delamere (approx same distance) and Bradshaw (slightly longer. Given the time to build a facility of sufficient size, the water quality in Katherine will be a thing of the past.

[Global Aviator]

Darwin has had many airlines try it over the years.

The biggest as said when Jetstar tried the hub, what was it Singapore, Ho Chi Minh and Manila?

Way back when, Qantas dropped in from Tokyo when Japanese inbound tourism was huge.

Royal Brunei for years, Garuda, Its MyParty, Air Asia, Philippine, no doubt a few more.

Why doesn’t it work? The Darwin population is just not big enough to support it when transit traffic not there?

Apart from that it is the gateway to Asia, good for freight with the Choo Choo train up the middle.

[Duck Pilot]

Rumour was that the proposed base was going to be built somewhere near Noonamah which is less that 1 hour’s drive from Darwin, can’t recall where I heard the rumour however the idea seemed plausible.

[Bend alot]

It is 207KM by road from Katherine to Mt Bundy so maybe a bit longer than 2 hours; however by air, just a hop. Katherine is far enough inland to be outside of the most severe cyclones (hence the US interest) and also has ready access to Delamere (approx same distance) and Bradshaw (slightly longer. Given the time to build a facility of sufficient size, the water quality in Katherine will be a thing of the past.
Not sure the station owners would like your imagined location.

3 h 42 min (377.8 km) via National Highway 1 - but yes a hop by air.

Katherine & a new base ( Mt Bundy near training area) and leaving Darwin for commercial use & military emergency.

Katherine is very prone to cyclones even ex cyclones at a rate of about every 20ish years, so about due another 98 was a record.

Katherine water quality has a 10 year band-aid solution of a limited quantity.

[Bodie1]

I would think that any government worth it's salt would be using this 'crisis' to look at what manufacturing/services must come back to it's country (onshore). What is critical to it's national interests, infrastructure.

The Darwin hub makes complete sense, why pour money into another countries (Singapore) asset? This would assume of course that Darwin airport be named as a national infrastructure asset and remain Australian or government owned. That's a massive stretch of course considering that Darwin port is foreign owned.

This philosophy does not need to be isolationist or protective trade wise, it's just saying to the world some goods and services are staying in this country.

I doubt any of this would happen of course, it requires vision, gumption and seeing beyond one electoral cycle.

[Mr Approach]

It is great to see Pruners exercising their commonsense and thinking outside the box. Unfortunately I very much doubt that anything like that is happening elsewhere.
I have "heard" that far from contemplating leaving, the RAAF has laid acres more of concrete and built a new Control tower at Darwin - this does not sound like an organisation about to build a new base. It's more likely that the US marines will build such a base as the tempo of their pivot to Asia increases.

There is a very interesting document available on the web at <http://www.dica.org.au/wp-content/uploads/AFBaseAccessReview.pdf> that warns the RAAF about allowing access to RAAF airfields. Amongst other things it states
"Defence capability is inextricably linked to the availability of its airfields for training and, if necessary, the conduct of operations. Air Force airfields exist to support the generation, sustainment and deployment of military capability to meet Defence tasking by the Australian Government. Military use shall always have primacy at these locations. Accordingly, military activities may affect or even preclude civil aviation at Air Force airfields"

It also mentions that Darwin and Townsville work because they do not have permanent squadrons in place, and are only used for exercises and deployment. So why are they not civil aerodromes that can support military execises when needed, as is the case at Rockhampton? (There the civil controllers are quite used to handling all sorts of military aircraft, are augmented by RAAF ATCs when required and even host radar units run by the US Marine Corps from time to time.) I believe the answer lies in an ambition by the RAAF ATC wing to be the world's answer to setting up an ATC unit when needed. This was done in Baghdad and I believe offered in other places. In order to provide this they need to train their controllers to operate in civilian environments, this they do in Darwin, Townsville and Williamstown. I think that Dr Dre's comments above sum that up. So expect the RAAF to hang on to Darwin and Townsville solely to provide ATC training.

[rattman]

It is great to see Pruners exercising their commonsense and thinking outside the box. Unfortunately I very much doubt that anything like that is happening elsewhere.
I have "heard" that far from contemplating leaving, the RAAF has laid acres more of concrete and built a new Control tower at Darwin - this does not sound like an organisation about to build a new base. It's more likely that the US marines will build such a base as the tempo of their pivot to Asia increases.


A few months back they announced a 100 million upgrade so they can support P-8's (AIR 7000 Phase 2B) Cant see them leaving darwin anytime soon

[Duck Pilot]

Remember that all theses decisions and proposals/rumours where made well before the COVID - 19 crisis.

What’s happened in the past means nothing as much as we like to think so....

The future winners are going to be the people who can think outside of the square and not use past experiences to move forward.

[HK144]

Not sure the station owners would like your imagined location.

3 h 42 min (377.8 km) via National Highway 1 - but yes a hop by air.

Katherine & a new base ( Mt Bundy near training area) and leaving Darwin for commercial use & military emergency.

Katherine is very prone to cyclones even ex cyclones at a rate of about every 20ish years, so about due another 98 was a record.

Katherine water quality has a 10 year band-aid solution of a limited quantity.

Mate - Don't know where you are getting your mileage - Google Maps has RAAF Tindal to Mt Bundy Station as 223KM and 2h 14mim. But we are getting way off topic. I am well aware of the floods in Katherine. I have lived there. Whilst Katherine may still be exposed to the effects of cyclones, it is nowhere near as severe as Darwin. Hence the works at Tindal.

[slats11]

Remember that all theses decisions and proposals/rumours where made well before the COVID - 19 crisis.

What’s happened in the past means nothing as much as we like to think so....

The future winners are going to be the people who can think outside of the square and not use past experiences to move forward.

Exactly.
The world has changed. Dramatically. And in some ways permanently
Embrace change, or change will embrace you.

An expanded Darwin airport can
1. An Australian hub to Europe and Asia. May serve NZ as well as east coast and Adelaide
2. An expanded military presence.
3. Freight - connected to southern part of country by rail.

We will need infrastructure projects to get the country going. Might as well have a business case ready to go.

[Bend alot]

Mate - Don't know where you are getting your mileage - Google Maps has RAAF Tindal to Mt Bundy Station as 223KM and 2h 14mim. But we are getting way off topic. I am well aware of the floods in Katherine. I have lived there. Whilst Katherine may still be exposed to the effects of cyclones, it is nowhere near as severe as Darwin. Hence the works at Tindal.
From Google maps!!!!
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Katherine,+Northern+Territory+0850/Mount+Bundey+Training+Area,+Old+Jim+Road,+Mount+Bundey+NT+08 22/@-13.5222726,131.1249666,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x2cbabfce87fc8337:0x50217 a82a254fc0!2m2!1d132.2715145!2d-14.4521139!1m5!1m1!1s0x2cb8f14088301e19:0x8972f4593f4ff71b!2 m2!1d131.8221054!2d-12.8595676!3e0

Not the station as is your 223 km - I am talking the training area of the Mt Bundy.

My distance was a copy and paste from google maps.

I guess state of emergency and evacuations in recent years are not severe, but Darwin is a severe area as it is more coastal?

Off topic is one thing but so is off location and Katherine short falls, including RAAF induced ones.

Any aero medical ops happening out of K town these days? or are they still prohibited?

[Asturias56]

"3. Freight - connected to southern part of country by rail."

any freight that comes in via aircraft is high value, time dependent compared to (say) cars.

You're suggesting it be off loaded in Darwin, trucked over to the rail-yard and then spend a day or so on a train to Adelaide? From where it has to be repacked or sent on somewhere else.

I don't think that works.............

[slats11]

"3. Freight - connected to southern part of country by rail."

any freight that comes in via aircraft is high value, time dependent compared to (say) cars.

You're suggesting it be off loaded in Darwin, trucked over to the rail-yard and then spend a day or so on a train to Adelaide? From where it has to be repacked or sent on somewhere else.

I don't think that works.............

I am thinking exports rather than imports.

Agricultural products from rural Australia up to Darwin by rail and then freight up to Asian markets.
We can do it with lobster from Tasmania.
Why not premium agricultural products from rural Australia

[601]

Why not premium agricultural products from rural Australia
Already being/was done from Wellcamp.

Instead of Darwin, Alice Springs is the logical choice.
It is central to all the capital cities, has more local tourist potential for stopovers and no monsoon or afternoon TS.

[Fliegenmong]

It;s done from Wellcamp (Tooowoomba / west brisbane)...but could be well expanded from there..potential large growth

[lc_461]

It;s done from Wellcamp (Tooowoomba / west brisbane)...but could be well expanded from there..potential large growth

Yes I think CX is continuing the 748 freighter once or twice a week unchanged.

[Asturias56]

"Agricultural products from rural Australia up to Darwin by rail "

It's a single line not a network - everything would have to be trucked over to freight points along the railway - and only high value stuff such a s lobsters are sent by air freight - you can't ship wheat that way - well you can but you don't make any money

[slats11]

It's a single line not a network - everything would have to be trucked over to freight points along the railway - and only high value stuff such a s lobsters are sent by air freight - you can't ship wheat that way - well you can but you don't make any money

Yes I get that. But with the line in place, it would be possible to create several side branches that fed into this.

Appreciate that most products would go by sea. But there are foodstuffs other than lobster that could fly.

Anyway, leave the freight issue alone. It does require other infrastructure.

However we have seen major hubs work in many places around the world for many years. There has been a relatively recent shift to P2P flying with smaller twins rater than B747/A380.

suspect the world has changed - there will be fewer travellers, and they will be more prone sensitive. Perhaps this is the time for a hub in northern Australia.

Lots of great infrastructure around the world was built during times of economic difficulty.

[slats11]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-suspends-australian-beef-imports-from-four-abattoirs-20200512-p54s4k.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8285139/Costco-limits-number-beef-poultry-pork-products-customers-buy.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8285139/Costco-limits-number-beef-poultry-pork-products-customers-buy.html)

With falling value of Aust $, China restricting our exports (and this may be just the begging), and a consumer shortage of meat in UK, I can see that beef is the new lobster.

[Asturias56]

"it would be possible to create several side branches that fed into this."

Building railway lines is expensive and worse they are fixed - a truck is a lot more flexible - but then you have the cost of trans-shipping. It's not rocket science that major rail freight routes are generally for bulky non-time dependent things like iron ore, cars, fuel etc - and of course large 'merican tourists on Adelaide - Darwin..............

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Freight - connected to southern part of country by rail.
It's only connected to the southern part of the country by rail (and only took 126 years to built that). Exports from anywhere else in the country intending to be rail freighted to a departure by air in DRW have to travel a long long way to get there. There are no short cuts. Let's face it, DRW is a long way from the rest of the population, manufacturing, and agriculture.

[Bend alot]

It's only connected to the southern part of the country by rail (and only took 126 years to built that). Exports from anywhere else in the country intending to be rail freighted to a departure by air in DRW have to travel a long long way to get there. There are no short cuts. Let's face it, DRW is a long way from the rest of the population, manufacturing, and agriculture.
Some very large agriculture is on the doorstep - The Ord + surf and turf + local NT produce.

[Continue Approach]

I am not an aviator, but I absolutely love the notion of Darwin becoming an international aviation gateway. Having said that, I think that there are a few considerations to be discussed before randomly suggesting that the Top End could become a viable and permanent hub for Asian, European & ME flights.......

1. In my view, Darwin should only be considered as a hub & refuel stop. The city is relatively small and should not be viewed as a pax market (unlike the Perth market which has contributed greatly to the success of the QF9 & 10 direct services);

2. RAAF Darwin is not going anywhere. Don’t listen to any notion that another terminal could be built on the southern side of the field on or about where the old terminal was, unless its built well to the east of the RAFF infrastructure which would place it miles from the domestic terminal – and then only with RAFF agreement.

3. RAAF ATC has always been known for separating aircraft by continents. These ridiculous separation standards along with huge CB’s in the wet season, and random (priority) RAAF ops are well known in the Top End. Pilots of long haul inbound flights would not appreciate any of these scenarios which could place them in a divert scenario - and your only alternate on mainland Australia is an AFB 300km away.

4. What’s to say that QF won’t put a payment embargo on Darwin airport, just like it has in Perth?

5. Is it correct that the NT Government is broke, and getting broker (sic) every day of the week? If so, NTG could not possibly assist with funding any sort of terminal expansion - but I guess that the airport owners are well aware of that. This then means that funding would be sought in the private sector, and I’m not sure that any hopeful suitors would be interested in aviation infrastructure in our current world.

IMHO.

CA

[Asturias56]

Some very large agriculture is on the doorstep - The Ord + surf and turf + local NT produce.

I can see a small market for sea food going out by air - it can be very high value (especially in Asia) but beef & lamb - I don't think so

The local market is small and not going to require a vast amount of imports. If there was some high value factories in Darwin you might attract freighters - but there's not and AFAIK there are no plans to build (say) a new computer chip factory there. If you look round the world at areas dominated by agriculture you don't see many (or any) large airports (other than storage & the military.

Airports go where there are people, and business and money

[Section28- BE]

It's only connected to the southern part of the country by rail (and only took 126 years to built that). Exports from anywhere else in the country intending to be rail freighted to a departure by air in DRW have to travel a long long way to get there. There are no short cuts. Let's face it, DRW is a long way from the rest of the population, manufacturing, and agriculture.

Hmmmm-

'Whom' per-chance 'owns' the Northern-Most Port in AU (ta, Adam....., GOOD JOB)- for the next 99 yrs + The Majority of the ORD........, 'just' a question.........?????

Rgds- (and 'shall' patiently await 'some' 'esteemed/sage' advice and FACT!!!!)
S28- BE

[Global Aviator]

Hmmmm-

'Whom' per-chance 'owns' the Northern-Most Port in AU (ta, Adam....., GOOD JOB)- for the next 99 yrs + The Majority of the ORD........, 'just' a question.........?????

Rgds- (and 'shall' patiently await 'some' 'esteemed/sage' advice and FACT!!!!)
S28- BE

Dat be China aye...

[Section28- BE]

'Yeszim' Mr Global!!!!!

Now then, Bueller...../Bueller...../Bueller, !!!!!?????

Rgds all
S28- BE

[F.Nose]

Pilots of long haul inbound flights would not appreciate any of these scenarios which could place them in a divert scenario - and your only alternate on mainland Australia is an AFB 300km away.

Continue Approach. Darwin is frequently subject to TEMPO requirements during the wet but only extremely rarely requires an alternate. It is also extremely rare for aircraft to divert to Tindal due weather.

Thunderstorms generally blow through or out well within 60 mins. Diverting to Tindal because of TS activity in Darwin would most likely result in touch down Tindal at about the same time or post the reopening of the Darwin Airport.

[Captain Bundy]

It would appear QF may have been reading this forum :ok:

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-eyes-regular-flights-to-london-via-darwin?fbclid=IwAR1hVsRIMU3JbrLKZCqYIcaNq1KMYKXunrd3q3I6FaLn jhb2PNx1XWMLhfc

[Xeptu]

I would think that any government worth it's salt would be using this 'crisis' to look at what manufacturing/services must come back to it's country (onshore). What is critical to it's national interests, infrastructure.

FUEL would be a good start