Some Positives in NZ [Archive]

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Ollie Onion

7th May 2020, 23:04

So it looks as though domestic flying will get the go ahead early in the transition to level two in NZ, this of course has to be good news. Lots of domestic tourism is being promoted and encouraged, how many kiwi’s will start flying again do we think? It seems to me that the perception of aircraft as Petrie dishes is the biggest hurdle, the Government have said that physical distancing will not be required onboard and our leading experts say that the epwearing or masks by passengers is all that is required to make it safe as evidenced by overseas samples. So how does that message get out. Yes I know lots of people are out of work etc but the fact is that most people have remained employed and working and their will be some pent up demand. How do airlines bring a bit of confidence back?

compressor stall

7th May 2020, 23:14

I don’t pin that much hope on aviation massively benefitting from domestic tourism anywhere, either side of the pond, in the short term.

Those out of work won’t be travelling.
Those stood down and subsequently reemployed will have burned up their annual leave and will take 6-12 months to get any back
Those who are able to travel might be a little cautious as I cannot imagine many travel insurance companies covering cancellations from a localised reemergence of COVID.

wishiwasupthere

7th May 2020, 23:37

Those out of work won’t be travelling.
Those stood down and subsequently reemployed will have burned up their annual leave and will take 6-12 months to get any back
Those who are able to travel might be a little cautious as I cannot imagine many travel insurance companies covering cancellations from a localised reemergence of COVID.

We are also looking at this situation through aviation tinted glasses, in one of if not the worst affected industries where we’re in an echo chamber surrounded by people that are either sitting at home or trying to find work in unrelated industries, with little prospect of getting our jobs back in the short to medium term.

I have many friends in other industries completely unrelated to aviation who are not suffering nearly as
much as us in aviation who have a completely different view on the world than us. Amongst them is a building pent up desire to travel, be it domestically or internationally. Minimal reduction in pay because they’re still doing their jobs, just from home instead of in an office. Actually saving money because of reduced ability to spend it on leisure activities at the moment, to the point where buying more property if house prices drop, or pondering whether now is the time to grow their share portfolios.

BNEA320

8th May 2020, 00:55

We are also looking at this situation through aviation tinted glasses, in one of if not the worst affected industries where we’re in an echo chamber surrounded by people that are either sitting at home or trying to find work in unrelated industries, with little prospect of getting our jobs back in the short to medium term.

I have many friends in other industries completely unrelated to aviation who are not suffering nearly as
much as us in aviation who have a completely different view on the world than us. Amongst them is a building pent up desire to travel, be it domestically or internationally. Minimal reduction in pay because they’re still doing their jobs, just from home instead of in an office. Actually saving money because of reduced ability to spend it on leisure activities at the moment, to the point where buying more property if house prices drop, or pondering whether now is the time to grow their share portfolios.
instead of listening to all the doom in the media, focus on the employment rate which may drop to low 90%, which is still very high. Know of many who will be flying o/s as soon as they can. If they have to wear a mask, no big deal. In todays news, even the greeks, who couldn't organise anything, are opening the greek islands up to tourism in July.

https://www.traveller.com.au/travel-to-europe-after-coronavirus-lockdown-greeces-santorini-wants-tourists-back-h1nwl8

Ollie Onion

8th May 2020, 01:53

This is the point, reserve bank has said this morning that economy is at 85% of normal and will rise to 91% under level 2. My nieghbour said to me over the fence this morning that as soon as its official hos son wants to fly for work and him and the wife will be going on holiday and really want to get skiing as well. As stated above just about everyone I know that doesnt work for an airline has worked throughout and has infact saved money which they now want to spend.

ozbiggles

8th May 2020, 02:33

I hope you are right Ollie, but I don’t think the problem is people’s desires or even most peoples finances.
One of the main problems I think,will be the restrictions around travel and where they can go and when . The state premiers have control over their borders now and they love that power and will be very reluctant to give that power back anytime soon. Every day doing a press conference saying how good and strong they are, they love it. The Qld premier was gloating at relaxing COVID restrictions for Mother’s Day, it has become more political now than public health. They will eventually but not until two premiers agree to and then the rest collapse under the weight of public opinion and me tooism. This is where NZ has an advantage and will be a good guide to how willing people are to travel again. Hopefully the NRL won’t be a how to guide for people once they get approval to travel...

mostlytossas

8th May 2020, 03:44

As far as intra state and interstate travel for tourists will come down to airfare prices mainly I think. Many people will choose to drive and take the extra time especially with petrol prices so low at the moment. It is safer than sitting with 100's of others both on board and in airports.
Will be also up to hotels,car hire costs etc to also add into the equation. Will traders try and recoup lost $'s by jacking up prices? Will more modest holidays with caravan or tent be the go?
Just before the lock down I took 3 family members to KI for a few days as they had been going through a tough time after the fires. We flew in on our own aircraft. Hired a car and stayed in a local motel,dined out etc. I was quite surprised at the prices over there. They certainly did nothing to help themselves. The very basic motel was priced at least 30% more than equivalent in Adelaide. So too the hire car which only allowed 200km /day before a per km charge kicks in. You don't get far in 200km whereas most places are unlimited km.
Needless to say I won't be hurrying back. Will be interesting to see if this spreads around the country and if so don't be surprised if few come.

ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE

8th May 2020, 05:12

Plan to have full interstate travel by July according to Scomo.

Light at the end of the tunnel will be good for everyone, even if the goal posts get shifted slightly between now and then.

Ragnor

8th May 2020, 05:33

Let’s hope the state and territories play ball and not drag this out. Realistically Covid is here to stay if hygiene practices are maintained no reason domestic interstate flying can’t resume. I think the public will be surprised hotel/motels will offer cheap rooms to get ppl there as for airfares there will also be sales to get bums on seats JQ will start a sale and so will QF. The travelling public will be winners for the short term.

Mumbai Merlin

8th May 2020, 09:47

It is all a bit premature. Regardless of State or Country.

Just because a Politician lifts the current suspended activity in Australia and New Zealand we still have a winter season to cope with. Influenza and a possible new more virulent form of CV-19 is quite possible.
The smart money would be to wait a month or two and see how winter pans out.
Sadly the death toll from CV-19 in Australia is approx 100 souls to date, for an influenza for which we have no cure. From internet research of government statistics it would appear that during the Aussie winter season we loose about 35 to 40 people a week, mainly senior citizens, to the common flu. I am not aware of any cure for the common cold. A far greater number than from covid 19.

Tourism and Airline activity is a topic of great importance but those in the respective industries tend to forget that large numbers of people have lost job, spent savings, accessing super funds. The unfortunate people will not be holidaying interstate via airlines for possibly a year or two or longer. There is no magic bullet for a recovery in Aviation or Tourism. It will take time, many years possibly up to 5 years. Airlines will come back thinner and tighter.

Regardless loans have to be paid back, jobs regained, savings accounts topped up, super funds restored. For some people this is a lifetime.

Don't rush "back in" people, Covid is here for many year to come in one form or another.

mattyj

8th May 2020, 10:20

Don't rush "back in" people, Covid is here for many year to come in one form or another.

probably been here for many years in one form or another too..

ozbiggles

8th May 2020, 13:39

I thought we all agreed not to discuss the chemtrails anymore.....

lucille

8th May 2020, 20:51

I thought we all agreed not to discuss the chemtrails anymore.....

How else can you explain the toilet paper hoarding madness in Australia?

Ragnor

8th May 2020, 21:01

James 1077

11th May 2020, 01:45

There are two things that I need to know before I'll pay for a ticket again:
1) If my flight is cancelled then will I get my money back within a reasonable timeframe (not credits, no six month delays etc);
2) Will my travel insurance cover any costs (including flights) if there is a flare up of Covid-19 that means that my travel has to be cancelled.

Unless these happen then I won't be travelling until I'm certain that either case is highly unlikely.

mostlytossas

11th May 2020, 02:50

Very good point James. I had visitors (2) from UK stay with me in February. Just before they were due to go home Emirates stopped all flights to Adelaide. They had to pay $5000 just to get home on Qatar via Perth in the end. To my knowledge they are still waiting for any reimbursement for Emirates and of course the Qatar ticket can't be claimed against the travel insurance as it due to an pandemic.
So who going to risk a repeat of that in a hurry? Not me. I was going to return the visit later this year before all this blew up. No way now. Will be at least 18 months before I even look at it. My next holiday will be driving somewhere like up the center of Australia to Darwin.