A New Age In T’s & C’s [Archive]

macdo

5th May 2020, 22:47

I think if you factor in training debt, we reached minimum wage for new pilots ages ago. Didn't Flybe have a bottom rung of about 18k?
For what its worth and having seen 3 major industry setbacks in my career, we ain't seen nothing yet. There are so many factors going against the resurgence of mass air travel that a huge contraction seems inevitable. Just imagine if a COVID19 vaccine is not found in spite of the global effort to make one, ther is no guarantee that this will happen. SO for an indefinite period we are left with an industry hamstrung by distancing rules and public fear. Contraction and immediate reduction to T&C's are likely. But, again if we imagine this is the new normal, the supply and demand for pilots will equalise and T&C's will improve again. Scarcity of labour is the about the only reliable thing that improves pay. Problem is, it may takes years to come to pass. Pray for a vaccine.

Saulman

5th May 2020, 23:50

It’s supply and demand. In 3-5 years we may actually have a pilot shortage and they’ll improve, like everything. For the time being there could potentially be thousands of unemployed jet pilots come July. It’ll be interesting to see how training organisations fair over the new few years.

ElZilcho

6th May 2020, 00:24

There'll be a wide variety in T's & C's across various regions, but for the most part I expect history will repeat itself.

Post COVID there will be a lot of highly experienced crew fighting over the scraps of jobs that remain, including new LCC startups offering barely above a living wage... many will walk away from flying, but others will take whatever they can get.
Fast forward a few years and millions wasted on management bonuses & Salaries, Airlines will attempt to expand again. Short memories will have forgotten the reason why there were so many cheap Pilots in 2020/21 and the Recruitment departments will be puzzled as to why they can no longer find suitable candidates to pay for an overpriced A320 rating, unable to comprehend that their treatment of today's Pilots resulted in Tomorrow's Pilot opting to take a trade instead.

White Knight

6th May 2020, 05:58

industry hamstrung by distancing rules and public fear.

Personally I doubt that this will last as long as some think it will. We're sociable animals, so 'social distancing' will come to pass... And once the news headlines latch onto something else, as they surely will, the fear factor will also fade!

vlieger

6th May 2020, 06:29

One thing I'm worried about is my (reduced) wage not going as far as it did before. Inflation and even hyperinflation will become a serious issue at some point, though it's unclear how exactly it will pan out.

macdo

6th May 2020, 07:53

Personally I doubt that this will last as long as some think it will. We're sociable animals, so 'social distancing' will come to pass... And once the news headlines latch onto something else, as they surely will, the fear factor will also fade!

I agree with this. If you live in parts of the world that have mosquitos, the chance of picking up malaria is a part of normal day to day life including the fact that malaria kills many more people than covid19 has/does. And malaria has an effective medication to both prevent and cure, but millions can't afford to take it. Life goes on.
The question for the airlines is, how long before the 'new normal' attitude to our mortality takes to catch on and can they survive the transition. I have the unenviable task of doing the weekly shop during this lockdown. A few weeks ago people were reasonable sensible except for the insatiable desire for toilet roll. In the last 2 weeks there is definitely a change to a more fearful population jumping out of the way of anyone coming close to them in supermarkets. The message to be afraid has been learnt , no doubt helped along by our sensationalist media, I think it will take a lot of unlearning before mass air transport happens again.

733driver

6th May 2020, 08:35

I agree with this. If you live in parts of the world that have mosquitos, the chance of picking up malaria is a part of normal day to day life including the fact that malaria kills many more people than covid19 has/does. And malaria has an effective medication to both prevent and cure, but millions can't afford to take it. Life goes on.
The question for the airlines is, how long before the 'new normal' attitude to our mortality takes to catch on and can they survive the transition. I have the unenviable task of doing the weekly shop during this lockdown. A few weeks ago people were reasonable sensible except for the insatiable desire for toilet roll. In the last 2 weeks there is definitely a change to a more fearful population jumping out of the way of anyone coming close to them in supermarkets. The message to be afraid has been learnt , no doubt helped along by our sensationalist media, I think it will take a lot of unlearning before mass air transport happens again.

The fearful jumping out of the way is just a phase which passes after about four weeks or so. I have seen it where I live initially but by now many people are pretty relaxed about distancing. A bit too relaxed, probably. I have read an interview with a psychologist who explained that this is normal human behavior. First we over-react with fear to a new threat and then we get used to it and become complacent.

fatbus

6th May 2020, 16:41

rifruffian

6th May 2020, 17:44

Going back to the OP......minimum wage pilots?.......yes,yes,yes........(there always has been)

the_stranger

6th May 2020, 19:36

Travel will recovery but people's disposable income will dictate the rate of return to the new normal . 380/747 and even 773 could be parked for years . LCC will be the new norm. Legacy wages very very slow to recover , if ever .
Just to shine a little light, economists expect that while the economy in Europe will shrink quite a lot this year, it will grow again next year.
Of course this is also just a prediction, but this crisis is not caused by economic factors, like the last one.

PilotLZ

6th May 2020, 20:41

Just to shine a little light, economists expect that while the economy in Europe will shrink quite a lot this year, it will grow again next year.
Of course this is also just a prediction, but this crisis is not caused by economic factors, like the last one.
I can recall coming across a forecast reduction of GDP of 7,75% in 2020, to be followed by a growth of 6,25% in 2021. So, with some luck, the economy will be back to 2019 levels in 2022. As soon as the plague is more or less sorted, people will forget about their fears relatively quickly. Lack of threat and fear + disposable income = more air travel. And, if demand for air travel will be up again in 2-3 years from now, the era of substandard T&Cs will not be too long.

Of course, there's always the slim possibility of an apocalyptic scenario in which everyone going near an airplane in the foreseeable future will have to wear a full Hazmat suit and stay in a state-monitored quarantine centre for 14 days after arrival, but the consequences of this to the entire world (not just to aviation!) would be so devastating that anything and everything will be done to prevent it from happening.

UAV689

6th May 2020, 22:08

Minimum wage? We have already bettered that.

Piloting was probably the only industry whereby us mugs pay 100,000 to get a licence, then pay for a type rating, then pay to sit in the seat on some pay to fly scheme.

Jimmy Hoffa Rocks

7th May 2020, 10:04

guy_incognito

7th May 2020, 11:05

Pilot salaries have been ripe for a "correction" for years now. From the point of view of the bean counters, it is absurd to pay such high salaries for a job that is as aspirational as airline flying. The new normal will probably look like minimum wage FO positions, and train driver-esque salaries for captains, but without any of the myriad benefits that come from being a train driver.

midnight cruiser

7th May 2020, 12:20

Hardly likely IMO. That might attract the Instagram dreamers for a few years, but no-one would stick with the career long term at significantly lower wages than we have now. The job is much more disruptive to home life than driving a train or most jobs, training is self funded to the tune of €150k, and there's a greater potential for a screw-up to cost hundreds of lives... and actually there is more natural strength for industrial action, because grounding airliners costs millions.

Banana Joe

7th May 2020, 12:50

Hawker400

7th May 2020, 13:08

I can't understand why you guys keep saying that training is in the region of €130k+. I paid around a third of the sums you mention, I received some very good modular training and it did not prevent me from obtaining a job at a respectable cargo operator. It doesn't take that much to make this smart decision when deciding what path to take with regards to training.

I agree with you but the cost these airline academies charge is right around the €120k mark. A father of an easyjet graduate expressed his feelings on this board not to long ago about his son losing his contract with a £125k bill 3 days before base training.

It sounds really nice during presentation until they withdraw your contract and your family's house goes to the market as collateral. Or you realize that you'll be living slightly above poverty for the next 6 years.

Ultimately it comes down to a smart training decision but ironically young cadets are nowhere near good decisions. Can't blame them too much when you get those insta-pilots are shilling "free" training at the schools.

GKOC41

7th May 2020, 14:29

This terms and endearment thing might as well be locked for two years. Waste of time now

guy_incognito

7th May 2020, 17:48

RudderTrimZero

7th May 2020, 18:25

If you take a loan, after interest over 10 years which is what most are designed to be repaid over, you're looking at 120k. That was the number I came up with 10 years ago!

NoelEvans

7th May 2020, 21:50

This is not the time to accept low pay or poor conditions. Join a union if you are not in one. You have to look at the total cost of pilots to the operation. Look at our % cost versus the safety of the operation. The unions have to negotiate hard not to let executives take advantage. It is the executives who need to take a pay cut, and work on performance pay. We are the ones out there, if we screw up, people can get hurt. If you pay peanuts you get monkeys!! If aviation wants to have professionals safely you have to pay. We have to stay strong and united.
Have you been "out there" and actually seen all those parked up aeroplanes and empty airports? I really don't think that you have because it is a real eye-opener. (And really, if you have seen it, it is something that you would rather that you had not seen, I know, I've seen it.) Things are really, really bad. Just get off your high horse. The best way out of this is to forget what you were used to and look at ways of supporting as many pilots staying in jobs as possible. For a while that will mean lower Ts&Cs (a lot lower). But pilots accepting lower in order to keep as many other pilots in work as possible has to be the real aim of any fellow pilot. Stick together to save jobs. Ts&Cs can come later.

lear999wa

7th May 2020, 22:52

Have you been "out there" and actually seen all those parked up aeroplanes and empty airports? I really don't think that you have because it is a real eye-opener. (And really, if you have seen it, it is something that you would rather that you had not seen, I know, I've seen it.) Things are really, really bad. Just get off your high horse. The best way out of this is to forget what you were used to and look at ways of supporting as many pilots staying in jobs as possible. For a while that will mean lower Ts&Cs (a lot lower). But pilots accepting lower in order to keep as many other pilots in work as possible has to be the real aim of any fellow pilot. Stick together to save jobs. Ts&Cs can come later.

Sorry but I disagree. I personally will not be agreeing to any concessionary contract. Historically concessionary contracts have just continued the race to the bottom. If they are going to be making redundancies, no paycut will prevent that from happening in my opinion.

Hawker400

7th May 2020, 23:22

I personally will not be agreeing to any concessionary contract.

You won't.

A320LGW

8th May 2020, 00:34

PilotLZ

8th May 2020, 05:23

While I absolutely hate to say this, it's the unfortunate truth... In the present situation one can only turn down new T&Cs either if they don't care about being employed or not or if they just don't realise how easily can they be replaced. While this will not last eternity, it will be a good couple of years before we're in a position to bargain again. That's just how supply and demand works. When you're in high demand, you can bargain for better T&Cs or just go elsewhere if not happy. In times like that, you either agree to whatever is thrown your way or you get kicked out and replaced by someone more agreeable. And then, when the market turns over again, you are no longer current and of limited interest to the ones who offer decent deals.

UAV689

8th May 2020, 07:25

It is quite disgusting how companies are seeing this pandemic, where people are dying, as an opportunity to hedge their staff costs down, as if we are a falling oil price.

guy_incognito

8th May 2020, 07:59

It's a false ideal to think that we can agree to worse T&C's today to save jobs and then when things are brighter we'll have them back.

Once they are gone, they will be gone forever. We either refuse to accept them point blank (and accept that will mean management say some pilots must go) or accept them and by doing so accept that things have changed permanently.

When profits are good we'll get thrown some crumbs and it'll be marketed by management as a bonus and something surplus to what we deserve ... and we will take it and laud their generosity.

Cue next crisis ... rinse repeat.

Exactly this.

This crisis is a wet dream for airline managers who have been waiting for years to take an axe to pilot Ts&Cs. We are going to see a "correction" downwards, and it will be permanent. People need to get it into their heads that this is, for some bizarre reason, still an aspirational career. Kids will sell their grannies to be able to get a perfect picture for their Instagram of themselves in the cockpit of a jet wearing their Ray Bans and Breitling. From a bean counter's point of view, it is utter madness to pay a decent salary to people who would basically do the job for free.

macdo

8th May 2020, 08:35

Exactly this.
Thomas Cook pilots agreed a T&C's cut in the face of a threat to close the UK airline down. It subsequently took an actual strike to get even a part of the package back.

DrJones

8th May 2020, 09:42

Terms and conditions are going to get worse as it is a case of supply and demand.

Problem is even though some airlines have had better terms then say others all bets are now off (only have to look at the BA thread about the zero hour contract).

I got into aviation just as Ryanair started to get big. I believe what they had on offer was an over priced type rating, be based anywhere on the Ryanair network and be employed by a third party who may or may man not give you work. With these fantastic terms people jumped at it. I think not shortly afterwards Easyjet came up with their own scheme which I think was even worse, and people still jumped at it as they were desperate to get their hand on a shiny jet.

It has now come full circle with BA now having this zero hour contract looming over their heads. I don't think BA will personally be on zero hour contracts, but there are people who would jump on it to further their career at the expense of others.

I feel terms and conditions are going to get worse but I belive one way to get these terms increased in the future is to decrease the supply. One way to do this is to increase the required hours to say fly a medium size jet eg 737 and anything bigger to say 1500hrs.

midnight cruiser

8th May 2020, 09:58

Guy, I suspect your motives or role, as you are excessively negative without substantiation.

Yes, pay and terms are going to take a massive dive in the medium term, but it will NOT be permanent. As Jones mentions, it's about supply and demand - but with much poorer pay and job security on offer, no-one in their right mind is going to train up and older Captains are going to call it a day, so there will be a MASSIVE pilot supply crunch in 3-5 years, and that can only lead to a big correction in pay. Unions have a role to play, but the main driver is supply and demand, as multiple airlines all chase the same pilots (think the late 80s, with lesser examples in recent years). Most (but not all!) pilots have memories longer than 5 years, so how airlines treat their pilots now, will be remembered when the boots on the other foot - my airlines one selling point is job security in a crisis - if they sabotage that reputation, then it will avoided like the plague in future.

PilotLZ

8th May 2020, 10:36

Over the last years I have seen more than one airline improving pay and roster significantly simply because pilots walked out en masse for better opportunities, with neither of them being easy to replace because rated and experienced individuals out of employment were virtually non-existent. That being said after all the crises of the last 20 years which drove the conditions down and years after the coming of zero-hour contracts. So, it's not all doom and gloom till the end of time. We are in for a bumpy ride until previous levels of employment return, and that will be at least 2 or 3 years from now - but improvements will inevitably come by as demand outweighs supply again. For now, everyone's task is to do whatever it takes to provide for themselves and their family, stay healthy and sane and maintain their currency, knowledge and contacts. Better days will come, that's for sure.

Jcmcgoo

8th May 2020, 10:41

TCX were a reasonably amenable bunch and though far from perfect, like most outfits you could point to a whole raft of annoying issues however generally speaking the culture of the company was reasonably laid back compared to the more hardnosed styles out there. macdo states correctly the battle royal that ensued which led ultimately to the first strike action in decades taken after a number of years waiting professionally and patiently for return of some proportion of the benefit package and renumeration to be returned after several years of the company commenced posting profits again

The key in this is the "relatively" easy going culture at TCX compared to some of the airlines out there. Id suggest with a resonably balanced view that you dont need a crystal ball to anticipate how easy cuts and reductions will be to retrieve in the future once they are given up. Director bomus and shareholder considerations will always create reasons enough to make you fight tooth and nail for every lost millimeter ov employee value

Survival is one thing we all get that, Power grabs and scything terms and conditions with a view of increasing market share post recovery cloaked under the camoflage of COVID survival are another.

We are entering the first real opportunity since the 1940s to take stock and revisit how we do many things. its hard to see any better opportunity to look at options outside the current practices, companies trying to outstupid and devalue what should be valuable members of their operational teams to cuts costs to the absolute bone to keep tabs and apace with the most ridiculous thinkers in the industry whom see nothing but the current success criteria for airlines presently look less than ideal across the spectrum.

Safe and fulfilling flying careers are possible - but not how the airlines have been run during the recent past

Good luck. Keep your 2m apart.

Luray

8th May 2020, 17:51

There will be no pilot shortage in the next decade or more. Market is supersaturated with pilots and even if half of us leave the industry to work as delivery boys it doesn't mean we quit forever. As soon as opportunity arise we'r ready to jump back in. Rating won't permanently expire unless u keep it expired for more than 3 years and many of us will pay to keep it alive.
It's gonna be a tough year with little flying and little money and even though i believe that covid trend will become obsolete and forgotten by next summer , aviation is still facing a real 'great depression' scale crisis that will come in about 10-15 years from now.
I am still employed but willing to fly for food and mortgage just to keep me and my company alive.

jarjam

8th May 2020, 20:04

Here here. If i’de been in a coma for 20 years and just woken up this opinion would be the “normal”
Flying is too cheap and has been for too long, see capitalism the rest is inevitable.......

FlyTCI

9th May 2020, 00:37

Rant mode on:

It really is sad reading this thread, with what appears being mainly European pilots, saying how they are willing to, what seems, happily help the airlines erode our own T&C’s even further. I have previously lived in the US and most of my aviation network is over there, and I also frequent one of the better aviation web forums over there daily. I can tell you guys, despite the massive layoffs being forecasted there too, the absolute majority of them are NOT prepared to “assist” in bringing their compensation they have fought so hard for over the last several years down. And as many may know, their compensation packages have been double or triple over what has been on offer in Europe (bar a few remaining national carriers maybe) for the last several years. Most of them are saying they would rather leave aviation and do something else for a while and then return when pay is where it should be than work for sub par pay.

Despite being European and having an EASA license (on top of an FAA one) I have never worked in Europe during my more than 20 years as a commercial pilot due to the, generally speaking, crappy terms being offered in Europe mainly due to way too many selling themselves way too short just so they can put on their shiny white pilot shirt while proudly walking through the terminal. I’m actually seriously considering letting my EASA ATPL lapse next year and solely rely on my FAA license for the second half of my career. Much easier and cheaper to keep alive and current anyways.

The US may have its share of problems (which country doesn’t) but at this point I am so thankful I decided to renew my green card just a couple of months ago giving me the option to go back there at some point to make a decent wage. I’d rather live and work there for fair and reasonable wages in an effort to one day being able to retire somewhat comfortably, versus being under compensated due to surrounding myself with a pilot group who appears to generally lack any kind of self respect and accept whatever is being thrown at them. The lack of unity amongst European pilots is absolutely sickening, a case of truly being their own worst enemies.

Until the virus struck I had a contract to fly through a US ACMI carrier for a European airline over the summer. I was recruited by one of the major crewing agencies in Europe and it was actually a pretty good contract being in Europe, so I accepted it. Today I received a questionnaire from the recruiter and below is one of the questions I was being asked. I have, sadly, no doubt that there would be no shortage of pilots in Europe signing up for one of the several ridiculous options (full pay not included) below, in a way basically subsidizing the airlines.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x1792/c20a7eef_901d_4566_9ae2_a39364954eb4_704e5344525d4f0e2b5278d f61eff6b9e4f5f986.jpeg

My bills did not stop coming in just because of the virus showing up, so tell me why I should work for free then? And this is coming from someone who is already on month ten of unemployment due to my last job ending when the plan I was on sold. Luckily I have always managed my personal finances in a way that I can easily take a bump/crater in the road like this one. And I am not saying this to brag, but I have read and heard so many stories over the years from people/pilots who were spending their money as fast (or faster) as they were making them and then ending up in a bind as soon as their job went away, for whatever reason. Hence I have promised myself to never put myself in such a situation. The reason why I have been able to do this is because I refused to accept a job with sub par compensation.

Yes, it has required me to be a bit flexible on where I have worked/lived, but to me it has been well worth it versus constantly feeling the financial stress of not making enough to put away money for a rainy day or two, or even worse, stressing over not even being able to pay my bills. In the end it has allowed me to live anywhere in the world (I returned to Europe) while making a fair/good salary and basically having as many days off in a month as I worked.

End of rant and putting my flame suit on...

DrJones

9th May 2020, 06:03

Here here. If i’de been in a coma for 20 years and just woken up this opinion would be the “normal”
Flying is too cheap and has been for too long, see capitalism the rest is inevitable.......

You are right on the whole fying is too cheap. But putting prices up does not mean as a pilot you will get better terms and conditions, as the greedy airlines might want to keep the money for themselves.

In order to improve terms, we need times to be good (which they are not at the moment) and you need to some how cut down the supply of pilots.

Now how you cut the supply of pilots is anyones guess, I just went with a minimum number of hours. You could alternatively do it on age ie min age to fly on an AOC operation is say 25.

The numbers involved are irrelevant and even my suggestions are too, but in order for terms to improve in the future when times start to become good the supply of pilots need to be reduced.

Rottweiler22

9th May 2020, 07:01

FlyTCI, part of me is gobsmacked about that questionnaire, but part of it just solidifies what I’ve been thinking would happen for the last couple of weeks.

My airline has furloughed most of it’s pilots, but no redundancies planned yet.

The trouble is that so many people in my airline (including the crew council) love the mantra of “You should be grateful to have a job”. The top management also love to say it too. So every time the management try to get more for less, it’s met with a “Well, if it keeps me in a job, then it’s fine by me”. In addition to “I’m sure there’d be people from Thomas Cook or flyBe who would kill for my job, so we’re lucky!”.

I don’t want to argue the semantics of this, because I’ve been made redundant in the past and know how it is. But, when people have the “I’m just grateful to have a job” mentality, T&Cs are only ever going to go one way.

And this mentality gets stronger in times of struggle. So it’s a vicious cycle. The more unemployed pilots on the market, the more the employed ones desperately cling to their jobs, and the bigger cuts they’re willing to take.

In the coming weeks, I’m expecting my company to implement either long-term unpaid leave (6-12 months), forced part-time, or even zero-hour hourly-paid contracts. We’ve already had a pay cut, which people believe to be temporary. My opinion is that we’re never getting that back. Ever. But, whatever gets implemented I know that a vast majority of my colleagues will just accept, shrug, and say “At least I’m still in a job”.

macdo

9th May 2020, 08:39

'You should be grateful to have a job' is a mindf#@k that management regularly have used to undermine an employee groups confidence in their job security. Mostly, it is left unsaid but implied in the way management negotiates with its workforce. Management and BoD's need reminding they should also be grateful to have a job and that job relies on the folks they employ doing their job properly.

NoelEvans

11th May 2020, 11:55

Too many of you here really, really do not understand the true situation out there. Do not try to compare with the Thomas Cook situation, the financial crash, 9/11 or even the first Gulf War. This is nothing like any of those. This graph was in Flight a month ago:https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/984x529/stored_aeroplanes_a0258cfa4756c34000680a185b855b13cfcb60d3.j pg
Please try to find "the Thomas Cook situation, the financial crash, 9/11 or even the first Gulf War." on that graph and compare it with now. I have seen parked and sealed aeroplanes and deserted airport terminals. This is bad. All past ways of doing things are going to need to change to be able to survive. Concepts like'You should be grateful to have a job' is a mindf#@k that management regularly have used to undermine an employee groups confidence in their job security.belong to the past.

Pilots should be doing everything that they can to keep as many pilots as possible in jobs, regardless of 'Ts&Cs'. Anyone digging their heels in to "Defend their 'Ts&Cs'" without any thought about how this will affect other pilots' jobs should probably justifiably be seen as just selfish. Just get on with the real world about you right now and keeping pilots in jobs must be the top priority. PilotLZ has got it spot on: Things will improve and when the shortage 'bites' eventually there will be an improvement in conditions. In the mean time survival is the most important and pilots should be working together to ensure the survival of as many jobs as possible.

But for anyone wanting to dig their heels in and "stand up for their Ts&Cs", I hope that's what you tell them at your first interview in the Jobcentre.

NoelEvans

11th May 2020, 12:14

And, if you have looked at how your pension savings have done, you might need to work a whole lot longer as well. And if you reach the 'age ban' that 'work a whole lot longer' might even be 'stacking shelves', with whatever Ts&Cs that involves...

Tommy Gavin

11th May 2020, 13:29

Please Noel, you build your pension over 40 plus years. To look at pension results during a huge crisis does not make any sense..

You should definately stand up and defend your T&C's. However in this crisis you should offer something like mandatory 50 percent part time or temporary offers eg pay freezes etc.

PilotLZ

11th May 2020, 16:19

The eternal question of whether it's better to screw few by a lot or many by somewhat less... That's a time when everyone will find out what their union is worth. What Lufthansa proposed (45% cut for everyone but no jobs lost) is likely to remain an isolated case because union leaders at many other places will likely defend the hefty paychecks of themselves and their buddies and push those below them under the bus rather than agree to take a cut themselves but keep everyone in employment.

NoelEvans

11th May 2020, 17:59

Tommy Gavin

11th May 2020, 18:40

Tommy, I agree that pension savings are long term. If you have a 40 year career ahead of you that makes sense. In the present circumstances if you have a decade or so to go, not only have your savings taken a huge dent with all economic forecasts not looking promising for a long time for improvements. Added to that, any serious dent to employments prospects will have dented not only earnings, but with that the ability to keep up those pension contributions. Then, just to make it all worse, if you are in Northern Europe you will have an age ban putting you out of work at least a couple of years before you can get your State Pension or equivalent. And if your income prospects have taken a dent, like being thrown out of employment (or pushed under the bus) in the way that PilotLZ has so well explained, that Sate Pension (which is not to be sneezed at) could be so important to your livelihood and a couple of years or more wait for it could be really unpleasant. Yes, it is a long term bit of your planning, but when things go wrong too close to the end, in addition to possible unemployment that long term concept goes out of the window.

Right now, staying in jobs is far more important than 'Ts&Cs'.

Noel I hope that your private pension fund is low risk with only a decade to go. Yes you might lose a bit but a lot less actually than the youngsters with 40 years to go. That should be OK if you are able to keep a job. But I disagree with you that staying in a job is more important than T&C's. Especially since the younger generation will have lower and lower and lower terms for a longer term which makes it even more anti social imo. Redundancy sucks big time but much lower terms over an extended time sucks even harder. Believe me I have been screwed before and most likely will be screwed again.

Modular Halil

11th May 2020, 19:40

the_stranger

11th May 2020, 20:18

What Lufthansa proposed (45% cut for everyone but no jobs lost)
I could be mistaken, but wasn't that an offer from the pilots instead of the company? And that 45% included a whole lot of extra pay, like the profit share, so the actual reduction would be around 20% of basic, normal monthly salary.
Because executive daddy and mommy want little tommy to go to agooxford flight school
It does depend. If you want to fly in my homecountry, you will not get anywhere with a "self made" license.
The 2 biggest airlines require a certain path which does cost the mentioned amount.

Of course you can still go "cheap" and hope for a job abroad, but most would like to stay in the country if possible.

DrJones

11th May 2020, 21:27

A320LGW

12th May 2020, 02:18

Anyone who thinks that terms and conditions are going to improve down the road are extremely niave.

Even in the good times that have passed people are willing to pay for overpriced courses (Easyjet / BA / Virgin) be employed by agencies on low pay zero hour contract to get their hands on a shiny jet (Norwegian / Ryanair).

The airlines see this and they are going to abuse it in the future because there is a never ending line of mugs willing to set the bar even lower just so they can get their hands on a shiny jet.

And where does all this lead to from a training perspective? He who pays wins? Where is the oversight from the safety/SMS boys and girls to ensure the 'right stuff' is being assessed rather than the size of a person's wallet? Have the risks of wallet based hiring been assessed? Are airlines looking for cash cows or employees? How many instances do we need of people who don't know where they are in an aircraft nor a notion as to what is going on all through type rating, making the instructor work extra and causing their partner's development to suffer?

Lots of these questions are rhetorical I admit but must we start speaking up that we aren't happy if it all changes drastically? Is that incredibly naive? Will it take an accident for someone to realise something has gone wrong?

Do we need EASA/CAA law to be that all parts of recruitment (assessment and type rating bar living costs) are expressly not allowed to be funded by the candidate so as to maintain the integrity of recruitment? It would be an easily justifiable regulation from a safety perspective.

I was very lucky to have been hired by one of the few airlines who i never had to pay a penny towards, from assessment to type rating. I had this discussion with one of the decision making pilots in the company and he said the company's view is that it is their responsibility to fund it all. I should hope it stays that way in the post COVID world (along with me staying in employment! :})

finestkind

12th May 2020, 03:00

Not only do people sitting on the sideline still have to pay bills and in some cases accepting different T&C's to stay afloat but also what about the cargo? There is no doubt going to be a turn down in the general public that fly. This will be due to having lost employment and living on credit as most people do (showing my age but when I was a wee bit younger if you did not have money in the pocket you did not buy that hamburger, wine, steak etc as there was no credit/card) with that being maxed out and having to be re-payed. The best case for the public is a delay in holidays due to having to either use leave whilst closed down or leave without pay which means no money for a holiday. Not having bums in seats may drag the recovery out even longer.

Atlantic Explorer

12th May 2020, 04:58

And where does all this lead to from a training perspective? He who pays wins? Where is the oversight from the safety/SMS boys and girls to ensure the 'right stuff' is being assessed rather than the size of a person's wallet? Have the risks of wallet based hiring been assessed? Are airlines looking for cash cows or employees? How many instances do we need of people who don't know where they are in an aircraft nor a notion as to what is going on all through type rating, making the instructor work extra and causing their partner's development to suffer?

Lots of these questions are rhetorical I admit but must we start speaking up that we aren't happy if it all changes drastically? Is that incredibly naive? Will it take an accident for someone to realise something has gone wrong?

Do we need EASA/CAA law to be that all parts of recruitment (assessment and type rating bar living costs) are expressly not allowed to be funded by the candidate so as to maintain the integrity of recruitment? It would be an easily justifiable regulation from a safety perspective.

I was very lucky to have been hired by one of the few airlines who i never had to pay a penny towards, from assessment to type rating. I had this discussion with one of the decision making pilots in the company and he said the company's view is that it is their responsibility to fund it all. I should hope it stays that way in the post COVID world (along with me staying in employment! :})

Yes and Yes.
(My bold)

guy_incognito

12th May 2020, 08:42

Is that incredibly naive? Will it take an accident for someone to realise something has gone wrong?

Do we need EASA/CAA law to be that all parts of recruitment (assessment and type rating bar living costs) are expressly not allowed to be funded by the candidate so as to maintain the integrity of recruitment? It would be an easily justifiable regulation from a safety perspective.

An accident is unlikely to change anything because linking it to a systemic issue will be nigh on impossible.

The regulator has no interest whatsoever in recruitment practices or indeed Ts&Cs. To put it bluntly, as long as the regulatory minimum standards are achieved, the regulator is not interested in anything else.

NoelEvans

12th May 2020, 16:06

I fully agree with guy. Regulation and Ts&Cs are two totally different matters.

Tommy, you are making even a stronger case than I have that pilots are going to have to work longer, especially the younger pilots.

Anyone who thinks that terms and conditions are going to improve down the road are extremely niave.

...Anyone looking at that graph above who thinks that terms and conditions are going to stay the same is extremely naive.

But I will repeat, keeping pilots employed through this will be more important than clinging onto those 'naive' Ts&Cs.

Tommy Gavin

13th May 2020, 09:18

I fully agree with guy. Regulation and Ts&Cs are two totally different matters.

Tommy, you are making even a stronger case than I have that pilots are going to have to work longer, especially the younger pilots.

Anyone looking at that graph above who thinks that terms and conditions are going to stay the same is extremely naive.

But I will repeat, keeping pilots employed through this will be more important than clinging onto those 'naive' Ts&Cs.

Thanks Noel. I see your opinion but I have to disagree with your last sentence. Once something is given it will not come back easily. Hence stick to your contractual T&C's. HOWEVER: For the duration of this crisis I think it is completely acceptable to save money where you can with alternative solutions. Mandatory part time is one of them. You work 50 percent, you get 50 percent (percentages could vary of course)
Instant savings for the company. And you keep the workforce current for when the better times arrive. This is imo where the unions should push for.

You also have to realise that, at least in most countries, redundancies are expensive. You have to pay them severance pay that you can't miss. If LIFO is applied you make your cost per flight hour even higher.

GKOC41

14th May 2020, 05:54

An accident is unlikely to change anything because linking it to a systemic issue will be nigh on impossible.

The regulator has no interest whatsoever in recruitment practices or indeed Ts&Cs. To put it bluntly, as long as the regulatory minimum standards are achieved, the regulator is not interested in anything else.
Wonder when the first incident will be attributed to a crew member fiddling around with face mask at critical point. Its all about risk and mitigation

Banana Joe

14th May 2020, 08:44

Wonder when the first incident will be attributed to a crew member fiddling around with face mask at critical point. Its all about risk and mitigation
What are you talking about? My employer is advising against wearing masks in a flight deck, according to EASA's recommendations. Straight from my DFO's mouth.

NoelEvans

14th May 2020, 12:39

Tommy, I think we are pretty much in agreement in 'concepts', it's just where we see the terminology differently. From what many have been saying here, any reduction to part time, compulsory or other, with the resultant reduction in pay would be seen as a change in Ts&Cs. But I agree with you that it makes an enormous amount of sense to keep as many as possible in jobs. Unless there are contractual agreements for redundancy in the UK "... the maximum statutory redundancy pay you can get is £16,140", so not that expensive. Pilots should get together to avoid other pilots being 'thrown under that bus', as more and more pilots out of jobs will drag down any future Ts&Cs fast.

GKOC41, face masks are not worn on the flight deck. Joe is correct on that one. They are only worn as you are leaving so I don't think that closing the door can count as a 'critical point'!

fatbus

14th May 2020, 20:07

Those claiming a mask cause an incident have not flown a bang seat . Not only a helmet and mask but strapped in tight , very little movement.

Trossie

14th May 2020, 22:33

Methinks they mean different masks...

the_stranger

15th May 2020, 09:55

Those claiming a mask cause an incident have not flown a bang seat . Not only a helmet and mask but strapped in tight , very little movement.
Haven't got a clue what a bang seat is, but would those masks perhaps included oxygen, microphone and certification as well as rigorous training?

sonicbum

15th May 2020, 10:21

Haven't got a clue what a bang seat is, but would those masks perhaps included oxygen, microphone and certification as well as rigorous training?

I believe a bang seat is a seat that emits a "bang" if you pull a specific handle or it could also be a seat that helps you "bang" by telling your war stories to ladies (or gents depending on taste).

the_stranger

15th May 2020, 13:25

I believe a bang seat is a seat that emits a "bang" if you pull a specific handle or it could also be a seat that helps you "bang" by telling your war stories to ladies (or gents depending on taste).
The cockpit seats on some Fokker 50s made a sort of bang sound when the adjustment lever was used. Can't 'member a mask attached.

Maybe more of a crunch or creak though, it has been a while ago...

3Greens

16th May 2020, 06:58

DrJones

16th May 2020, 07:26

You can't cheat economics, as said before it's simple supply and demand.

Whether you decide to save everyone's job or whether you decide to job share terms and conditions will come down.

Now for a few, these terms and conditions in the future will eventually come back to some a degree or another.

But for the masses I don't believe as a pilot you will see great terms for a very long time.

There will be a mass load of pilots on the market, and very few jobs to go around. Furthermore this virus won't just disappear, no drugs are significantly working and vaccine is months / years off, which means with reduced travel, holidays abroad there is probably still a good chance of other airlines still going bust, leaving even more pilots unemployed.

Now born out of every crisis there is likey to be new startup companies to suck up pilots / crew etc. But these startup companies are more likely to follow a Ryanair type of employment, whereby you will be on a zero hour contract, and have to pay for training. And there will be an abundance of pilots signing up to these daft contracts a, ready to shaft one another to see how low they can go. Let's face it, they were doing it in the good times, so they are certainly going to do it in the bad times!

Also soon as there is a glimmer of hope on the horozion of improvement in the job market, your likely to see mentored pilot schemes starting to pop up. Why because it is a fantastic revenue source for training organisations and the airlines. When this improvement happens will these newbie pilots be required, I would say not due to the surplus of pilots on the market, but these schemes will still go ahead, wherby a pilot who is unemployed, will loose a potential job to a newbie, who is strictly probably not required at that time.

If future pilots can not get an employment contract or their training paid what hope have you got for proper terms and conditions in the future.

In order to change things the supply needs to be changed. As I said before one way to change the supply is change hrs required to fly a jet, hrs to become captain, increase age to fly passengers etc. The other thing that's needs to be done is stop these zero hour contracts. If these were stopped there would more of a level playing field wherby other pilots can not undercut other pilots by signing up to dodgy companies.

That said for these things to change, there has to be a change in the law / regulations and I doubt very much that will happen hence why there will not be an improvement in working conditions.

guy_incognito

16th May 2020, 07:45

Furthermore this virus won't just disappear, no drugs are significantly working and vaccine is months / years off, which means with reduced travel, holidays abroad there is probably still a good chance of other airlines still going bust, leaving even more pilots unemployed.

From what I've read, it is 50/50 at best whether an effective vaccine will ever be found. The Chief Medical Officer said in one of the daily briefings that a vaccine may never be found. Unless governments start aggressively promoting the reality of the situation, that this is a virus which overwhelmingly leads to mild or no symptoms whatsoever, then aviation is finished, along with society as we know it.

sonicbum

16th May 2020, 08:43

Unless governments start aggressively promoting the reality of the situation, that this is a virus which overwhelmingly leads to mild or no symptoms whatsoever, then aviation is finished, along with society as we know it.

And the 300k plus deaths due to covid are in fact attributed to chemtrails ?

guy_incognito

16th May 2020, 08:56

NoelEvans

16th May 2020, 09:05

The cockpit seats on some Fokker 50s made a sort of bang sound when the adjustment lever was used. Can't 'member a mask attached.

Maybe more of a crunch or creak though, it has been a while ago...
I can't really remember much of a 'bang' from the Fokker 50's seat, but you could get one from the J41's seat if you pulled the handle to adjust the height without holding your weight with you feet ant legs: the 'bang' was when your seat hit the floor! It was a great one to use on unsuspecting FO's in the middle of their PA -- reach across and pull his/her seat's height adjusting handle and they would drop to the floor with a startled 'bang'! One of the older and wiser FOs that I flew with would always position the metal-clad tech log next to his seat so that if I tried that I would probably have my fingers chopped off!! (Sadly he won't be able to read this but John was great to fly with!)

Another similar story about a 'bang' to the floor, in an aeroplane with masks and all. Someone that I knew (let's call him Ian) who once flew Vampires (the ones with no ejection seats, just the old 'sit on' parachute). He was leading a pair on a 'run and break' on their return to the airfield. He pulled really hard on the 'break'. The pins holding his seat-height in place sheared, with his seat dropping down its runners to the floor with a 'bang' and the extra jolt causing him temporarily to black out. he came to going skywards sitting on the floor, so he levelled off on instruments. His wing-man was startled at his 'trajectory' and called to ATC that he was going to catch up and find out what was going on. As his wing-man caught up Ian head his memorable call to ATC "There's no-one inside!"!! Ian then grabbed the bottom on the canopy to pull himself up and peer over the edge to see his wing-man, to be told later that is was a most memorable "Kilroy was here" fingers with a helmeted and masked face that appeared looking 'over the wall' out of the aeroplane!! (The recovery landing was apparently done with the wing-man 'talking him down' to short final where he 'stood' up and did a rudderless landing...)

Apologies for going off topic, but these stories need to be told...

DrJones, I don't think that many of your 'solutions' are likely ever to happen, but I do agree with you forecast of outcomes. Your first sentence says it all. Hence the need for pilots to work together to ensure that as many of them stay in employment as long as possible (in more ways that one), regardless of what income might be for the next while, to ensure that as many as possible are still able to benefit from any pick-up once this problem is over.

(I also think that your 'market forces' will do away with a lot of the expensive 'get a licence quick' and pay for type-ratings concepts: who would want to plan to go into this industry with any huge debt when it has now been clearly shown that everything could go over a cliff-edge in a matter of weeks.)

guy, I'm not quite so doom-and-gloom about the need for a vaccine. The Deputy Chief Medical Officer recently pointed out that the world is living with, and managing, many deadly diseases (she quoted that only smallpox has been eradicated, all the others are still out there). Not everything has come to a grinding halt because of them. Some genuine management of this one at source could have avoided us all needing such dramatic management of it now. But we will get there, vaccine or not.

guy_incognito

16th May 2020, 09:49

guy, I'm not quite so doom-and-gloom about the need for a vaccine. The Deputy Chief Medical Officer recently pointed out that the world is living with, and managing, many deadly diseases (she quoted that only smallpox has been eradicated, all the others are still out there). Not everything has come to a grinding halt because of them. Some genuine management of this one at source could have avoided us all needing such dramatic management of it now. But we will get there, vaccine or not.

I agree with you! I don't think a vaccine is the holy grail. I think that if the government message had been sensible from the beginning and they'd made it absolutely clear that this was basically a mild infection for the vast majority rather than scaring the hell out of the population with the hectoring "Stay home, protect the NHS, Save Lives" nonsense, we wouldn't be in this mess and we would just be getting on with it.

sonicbum

16th May 2020, 14:56

Even if every single one of those 300k deaths is a direct result of Covid-19 (which isn't the case), it accounts for 0.004% of the world's population. Malaria kills 400k+ people a year. HIV does for around one million. Flu accounts for (according to the WHO, if you can believe anything they say), 250k to 650k depending on the severity of the strain.

The point is that the severity of Covid-19 simply doesn't justify the hysterical reaction.

309k people have died of Covid from the 22nd of January to date (so less than 4 months) and half of these 4 months have been spent on quarantine by most of the countries world wide. I am not a doctor and/or an epidemiologist but I guess that if nothing had been done we would be talking of numbers 3,4,5 or maybe 10 times higher than these. The majority of these 300k deaths were either elderly people or people with other diseases BUT they were living a normal life with all the treatments that modern medicine and science can provide, allowing them to have a longer life expectancy till they hit the Cov2. I would be happier than you are if we could all be proven of overreacting to this disease, but only time will tell and in the mean time we have to play it safe.

Plastic787

17th May 2020, 08:17

309k people have died of Covid from the 22nd of January to date (so less than 4 months) and half of these 4 months have been spent on quarantine by most of the countries world wide. I am not a doctor and/or an epidemiologist but I guess that if nothing had been done we would be talking of numbers 3,4,5 or maybe 10 times higher than these.

Plenty of literature is now emerging from those actual medical experts saying that the lockdowns have been largely unnecessary and have achieved very little (aside from trashing people’s livelihoods of course). Of course from here unfortunately it’s a face saving exercise and we know how important that is to politicians especially.

FlightDetent

17th May 2020, 08:36

Plenty of literature is now emerging from those epidemiologists saying that the lockdowns have been largely unnecessary and have achieved very little (aside from trashing people’s livelihoods of course). Of course from here unfortunately it’s a face saving exercise and we know how important that is to politicians especially.Typically they say lethality is not what the worst case predicted (hint: there is a reason it's called the worst case scenario) and the health system managed to cope. So far I understood the reason behind the restrictions was to slow down the spread so that the health system would cope and lethality could be controlled.

Besides, those people be they right or wrong are given a channel to voice their opinion via media. That media who every single day need a story more shocking than yesterday's to make ends meet.

My best take is the very same information scavengers and their pimping editors who were chasing ambulances 2 month ago, singing praises for nurses and doctors 4weeks ago, who are putting braveheart alternate opinions into the spotlight right now.

Are the facts being reported true? Probably yes. Is the overall picture one of selective reporting, showing a malinformed reflection on reality? Most definitely so.

vlieger

17th May 2020, 19:56

Plenty of literature is now emerging from those actual medical experts saying that the lockdowns have been largely unnecessary and have achieved very little (aside from trashing people’s livelihoods of course). Of course from here unfortunately it’s a face saving exercise and we know how important that is to politicians especially.

I find this argument hard to believe and most alleged proof of this that I’ve seen seems very thin. Without a lockdown hospitals would have been completely overwhelmed.

VinRouge

17th May 2020, 20:39

I find this argument hard to believe and most alleged proof of this that I’ve seen seems very thin. Without a lockdown hospitals would have been completely overwhelmed.

National ICU bed usage didnt exceed 60% in the UK. We were a long way off, plus, ICU capacity was significantly increased, probably one of the success stories from all of this. There were individual hospitals close to breaking, but thats why the military were ready on standby to fly cases to where capacity was available from the capital.

giggitygiggity

18th May 2020, 00:32

National ICU bed usage didnt exceed 60% in the UK. We were a long way off, plus, ICU capacity was significantly increased, probably one of the success stories from all of this. There were individual hospitals close to breaking, but thats why the military were ready on standby to fly cases to where capacity was available from the capital.
I feel like lockdown has really acted as a giant slap in the face to everyone (well, the VAST majority that are following it or trying thier best), basically that all of this really does matter and you should be concerned with hygiene, don't visit your gran, limit opportunity for the virus to spread. Obviously this effect will wain so after an easing, a step up of measures might have to happen to remind people of what's at stake. I've been clinical with it all over the last THREE months as I realise that if I dont do my best, I won't feel like I did everything I could if the worst comes and my job security comes into explicit question. I'm sure that principle (fear) guides a lot of us in other industries too.

I am now happy for restrictions to be eased as I think that in general, people have learned the lesson. I don't think that the government did things vaguely well initially but for me, Stay Alert is a sensible message at this point of time. Schools should certainly be going back with sensible measures and gentle steps. It does annoy me though, I am 32 and have a lot of teacher friends of the same age on facebook etc, so many of them seem publically outraged that they're being sent back into the breach when frankly I cant think of one who could really consider themselves as vunerable. I know they're working their asses off running classes from home, but that's only part of what education does and many parents bluntly don't give a crap.

Uplinker

18th May 2020, 09:19

Even if every single one of those 300k deaths is a direct result of Covid-19 (which isn't the case), it accounts for 0.004% of the world's population. Malaria kills 400k+ people a year. HIV does for around one million. Flu accounts for (according to the WHO, if you can believe anything they say), 250k to 650k depending on the severity of the strain.

The point is that the severity of Covid-19 simply doesn't justify the hysterical reaction.

This is what I said when this all started.

Keep calm, take daily multi-vitamins and minerals, (so your immune system has all the resources it needs to be as strong as it can be), and be considerate and sensible. Those at risk should self isolate. My 80+ Uncle and Aunt both had Covid19 and both have recovered without staying in hospital.

However, a former colleague who had cancer, had her chemotherapy stopped because the hospital she attended concentrated on Covid19. She recently died.

NoelEvans

20th May 2020, 07:21

Being frustrated with the circumstances is understandable. But be careful about simplifying too much and using statistic in one context only. I was sceptical about this at the outset. But this 'thing' has now 'murdered' three times the number of people in the UK in the space of two moths than the estimates for the worst flu season had done in the past two or so decades. (And then there are the additional sad cases, such as mentioned by uplinker.) The Deputy Chief Medical Officer (a specialist in influenza infection) stated recently that the sum total of human knowledge of this virus in humans has been over five months. Two months ago, when dramatic decisions were being made, that sum total was three months. So for myself, my scepticism has reduced massively. This is bad. We are not the only country that has suffered. In others the lockdown has been more harsh (I have seen it) and no doubt the economic recovery is going to be more difficult elsewhere. We are where we are and I do not want to be an armchair specialist saying 'we should have...', this entire situation has been unique. We need to get on with what we can. With hopefully as many pilots in employment as possible.

However, my purchase choices from now on always start with the country of manufacture being the primary 'filter'.