Qantas puts Project Sunrise on hold

[MelbourneFlyer]

Coronavirus has killed Project Sunrise and Qantas' Airbus A350-1000 order!

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/coronavirus-puts-qantas-project-sunrise-on-hold

[f1yhigh]

We will see Project Sunrise sooner than 2023, this much I am 90% certain. Once international travel picks up again, Qantas will be in a unique position, just like the few airlines that will survive this crisis. Expediting sunrise will give Qantas the chance to dominate in a niche market no other airlines will compete with.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

With fuel prices through the floor, subdued international travel demand for at least the next 2-3 years and little appetite for capital expenditure, there really is zero business case to purchase new aircraft anytime soon. I’d imagine a similar decision has been made regarding JQs A321neos, unless there is a post COVID 19 LCC battle with a slim-lined Virgin which can justify the capital expenditure to reduce costs.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

We will see Project Sunrise sooner than 2023, this much I am 90% certain. Once international travel picks up again, Qantas will be in a unique position, just like the few airlines that will survive this crisis. Expediting sunrise will give Qantas the chance to dominate in a niche market no other airlines will compete with.​​​​​​

with all due respect and I hope that I am wrong, I think that idea is delusional and completely at odds with what Alan Joyce has stated in the article.

mr Joyce has had little appetite to order new aircraft, even in the best of times, so to think that he will put in a billion dollar aircraft order when they are trying to recover a destroyed balance sheet post COVID 19 is hard to believe.

[Green.Dot]

QF is very lucky it hasn’t already committed to the 350 order. One of the things working in their favour is they have underinvested in their fleet over the years and all their “older” type aircraft (747 and older 330) are close to going out the door.

Sunrise will be a big player once it turns around in what 2030?!

Well played AJ- just kidding, who would have thought?!

[Maggie Island]

If the travelling public do baulk at the prospect of transiting through traditional hubs in ME/Asia when this is over, QF will almost certainly look to utilise the existing 787 fleet - which means that the non-stop flights won’t be headed to SYD/MEL.

[normanton]

If the travelling public do baulk at the prospect of transiting through traditional hubs in ME/Asia when this is over, QF will almost certainly look to utilise the existing 787 fleet - which means that the non-stop flights won’t be headed to SYD/MEL.
Darwin? Cairns?

[dragon man]

A very different Qantas to paraphrase him. Balance sheet decimated to keep the airline going , once jobseeker finishes mass retrenchments and VR every where means more cash gone. New aircraft order this year , I say no. Next year possibly if things bounce back very quickly.

[dr dre]

A very different Qantas to paraphrase him. Balance sheet decimated to keep the airline going , once jobseeker finishes mass retrenchments and VR every where means more cash gone. New aircraft order this year , I say no. Next year possibly if things bounce back very quickly.

Don't need VR or CR if indefinite stand-downs are in place. Just furlough workers and tell them their jobs will be waiting for them when able to return. Avoid paying out a cash redundancy that way. And a lot will naturally never return due retirement or career change.

[Iron Bar]

Can’t see much money being spent on VR or CR, certainly not for pilots.

Dre beat me to it and he is right.

[dragon man]

Don't need VR or CR if indefinite stand-downs are in place. Just furlough workers and tell them their jobs will be waiting for them when able to return. Avoid paying out a cash redundancy that way. And a lot will naturally never return due retirement or career change.

I think you will find they can’t do that, that’s my opinion only and I’m not going to enter a debate here about that. Only time will tell.

[slats11]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-4-airline-stocks-plunge-warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sell-2020-5-1029160193

This guy gets a lot more calls right than he does wrong. He is very negative on US airlines. These airlines all have substantial domestic operations, so he appears to be not that confident that even domestic will pick up.

[normanton]

I think you will find they can’t do that, that’s my opinion only and I’m not going to enter a debate here about that. Only time will tell.
If you don't want to have a discussion about it then can I recommend you don't post your inaccurate information.

It's been confirmed multiple times through Qantas and AIPA webinars that the stand down legislation in the EBA has no legal time frame. I expect the company to make full use of it, as it is a lot cheaper than VR/CR.

[Chad Gates]

You can only be stood down due to an event out of the airlines control (or any company). It can’t be just because they don’t want to stand people up. How you prove it, don’t know, but they can’t just do it forever.

removing the 747 and the A380 from the fleet, is well and truly an event within the airlines control. My 2c

[Hoosten]

I can't for the life of me see why 'furlough' wouldn't be embraced? Particularly in the case of the Tiger pilots. A company has spent a lot of coin on their training. At some point the industry WILL recover and go beyond where it was prior to the collapse. Surely it's better for an airline to have inducted pilots on recall when needed? Surely it's better than the sack for the affected pilots?

Sure there will be pilots that furlough will hurt, some deeply. But I've known of some pilots putting their hand up (for any number of lifestyle reasons) for a break knowing their job will be there with seniority in place. It also allows those wanting, to take a study break, family break. Sort of win/win.

[dragon man]

If you don't want to have a discussion about it then can I recommend you don't post your inaccurate information.

It's been confirmed multiple times through Qantas and AIPA webinars that the stand down legislation in the EBA has no legal time frame. I expect the company to make full use of it, as it is a lot cheaper than VR/CR.

You are a self opinionated goose.

[ExtraShot]

So, how many in Long Haul are due to hit 65 over the next two training years?

Most likely no 737 slots in that timeframe, at least, to extend the career (not that the majority may necessary want to), so there’s not going to be much choice for them.

Can’t do the old take a slot and then use sick leave to fix the knee/shoulder/etc either at the moment.

If that number is large enough there might be no requirement for CR, etc.

[normanton]

You are a self opinionated goose.
And you are a dinosaur well past your use-by date.

[Telfer86]

what are peoples thoughts on the rate of recovery ?

I would have thought 50 % of domestic & 25 % of international(not including NZ) after two years(march 2022) would be a great result
remembering international starts from zero early months of 2021

the variable is a vaccine which the medicos say 12 to 18 months "best case" then you have to manufacture & distribute , so very slim
chance of that for early 2021

how do you start international to higher infection countries , will countries just do strict bilateral deals with other low infection countries ? , with all sorts
of pre-screening

maybe my eyes don't work so well but I can't see where the international infection or death rate is flattening , I just see about 6000 passing every day in April

[physicus]

Speaking as PAX, QF have to be very careful or they will lose their top end travellers if they phase out the A380 too early without an adequate replacement. Their 787 interior is the worst J class I've ever flown on a new aircraft, and there's no F. J accounts for about 25% revenue, F for 30%, less than half, the remaining 45%, are from the back of the bus. Keeping up with EK will become harder and harder without Sunrise flights. As long as a single connection is required, EK serve far more destinations in Europe with a fantastically painless transit in DXB. LHR is an unmitigated disaster every single time (I couldn't cock up with such consistency if I wanted to), so that's on my avoid at all cost list. CDG is no better, FRA perhaps is, I don't know? But why stop there? Post COVID people will want to minimise stops. This is the time for bold expansion, slots will be available aplenty. I think they should think big and go hard as soon as the restrictions lift. Put the orders in for double the number of A350s, kit them out with mostly J and F, and fly direct to LHR,CDG,FRA,ZRH or GVA (lots of UN and diplomatic business going that way), maybe add FCO. US is already well covered once JFK has a direct.

Travel will resume. And those who have negotiated themselves into pole position will be the winners.

[Colonel_Klink]

how do you start international to higher infection countries , will countries just do strict bilateral deals with other low infection countries ? , with all sorts
of pre-screening



I would have thought something like this would make sense...although it probably starts to get quite difficult on a larger scale. But initially NZ and the Pacific Islands should open up. And possibly ban people who have visited a country in the last 3 months with a high infection rate (even if it’s a transit).

I think the option also needs to be to allow people from overseas the ability to come to Australia, but still have to self quarantine. Quite a few friends of mine have relatives in the UK...relatives who would be desperate to come and see new members of their family, etc.

Also to keep things on an aviation theme, the flying schools around Australia who have cadet contracts would have the ability to bring these students in, have them self quarantine for 2 weeks (whilst having initial theory done remotely) and then kick off flying from there. It seems flight training is one of the only parts of the industry that is continuing at the moment - but as cadet courses finish up, they too will start having significant shut downs in the next few months. This arguably could be the case for all overseas University students (a $12b industry). Admittedly the political appetite for this probably isn’t where it needs to be yet, but I hope it happens sooner rather than later.

[Progress Wanchai]

You can only be stood down due to an event out of the airlines control (or any company). It can’t be just because they don’t want to stand people up. How you prove it, don’t know, but they can’t just do it forever.

removing the 747 and the A380 from the fleet, is well and truly an event within the airlines control. My 2c

Agree.

Once the airline has restructured with Y number of aircraft requiring X number of crew who are all back working, then excess crew would go through a redundancy process. What’s the point in negotiating a redundancy package as part of your terms and conditions if every time a business reforms it can simply indefinitely stand down employees until they eventually resign/retire?

I can see this one being decided in the courts.

[Ollie Onion]

They will just say they will return people as the demand dictates, that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months. No way would a court say to Qantas, you could be making profit there so either return them to work or make people redundant. Qantas won’t make ANY pilots redundant either voluntarily or otherwise whilst they can have people stood down. Why would they, time gives them options.

[Progress Wanchai]

They will just say they will return people as the demand dictates, that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months. No way would a court say to Qantas, you could be making profit there so either return them to work or make people redundant. Qantas won’t make ANY pilots redundant either voluntarily or otherwise whilst they can have people stood down. Why would they, time gives them options.

I’m certainly not a lawyer but I’ve been involved in the courts enough to never predict what a labor dispute finding will be, which is where this will ultimately end up if companies don’t at some stage follow their redundancy provisions.

[Iron Bar]

Alan - Morning Board. We’ve got the outgoing cash flow down to $40 mil a week and the company is looking viable till the end of ‘21, in what’s obviously an economic situation the world has never seen. We’re well positioned to make the most of the recovery when it comes.

Board - Great work Alan, pull this off and you’re a corporate legend.

Alan - Just one thing, we’ve obviously got too many pilots and have to start a multi multi multi million dollar CR and RIN on 74 and 380.

Board - RIN? What’s this RIN?

Alan - Oh it’s where we retrain the senior pilots to fly the planes that the junior pilots already fly, that aren’t flying much anyway. Then make the junior pilots redundant and pay everyone ENORMOUS amounts of money while we accomplish the whole exercise.

Board - Come again?

[ANCDU]

They will just say they will return people as the demand dictates, that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months. No way would a court say to Qantas, you could be making profit there so either return them to work or make people redundant. Qantas won’t make ANY pilots redundant either voluntarily or otherwise whilst they can have people stood down. Why would they, time gives them options.

i think the issue might be that we are getting leave and LSL entitlements building up as we are stood down, this can’t go on for an extended period as over the employee group it will be another cost that the company won’t want on it books especially if recovery is slow.

More than happy to be proved wrong, but I can’t see Alan letting a good crisis go to waste.

[dr dre]

More than happy to be proved wrong,

Accrual of extra Annual and Long Service leave in a stand down is far less than a minimum redundancy payout, even if the stand down goes on for years. Plus the point is to save cash now. That extra leave accrued can be paid out to pilots in 5, 10, 15 years time.

[Telfer86]

from someone above "that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months "

That's saying international flying returns at the same time line for best case vaccine wouldn't you just double the above numbers

The international flying won't even commence until 12 months according to ScoMo , nothing this year

Then cherry pick a few countries you can work with & see what happens , 1 country take it slow , then maybe in a few months another 2

It would be great to go OS we would all like that ; if we are back to 20% by the end of 2021 I would be happy

[cloudsurfng]

It has also killed the 3 787’s that we’re supposed to arrive, as well as the NEO for JQ. No new aircraft across the group.

[Guptar]

Government ministers are saying there could be no international air travel well into 2021.
is this a possibility or scare mongering.

[crosscutter]

20% of what? 2019 Seat Capacity? Revenue?

787s will kick off with London and LA, followed by the usual Asian suspects. A few times a week to begin then more. Similar to route establishment. Honestly, 20% of 2019 international capacity in 12 months might be quite close. However, we are not defined by the creation of the vaccine. Virus recovery drugs are just as important and are easier to develop than vaccines.

There will come a point where the world has had enough. Hospitals will be better equipped and prepared. Better treatment will be known. The world will go on and so will air travel regardless. In short, I think services will have ramped up certainly within 18 months and QF will be back servicing most destinations again by then. No doubt it will be different. Demand will be reduced. A380s may only go to LAX and LHR, so the refurbished 6 might be it. (But I doubt it) Chicago...nup. 747s gone. But Trans Tasman and domestic leisure demand will explode.

Whether a vaccine is available will ultimately be irrelevant. Who’s to say a new variant doesn’t roll around in 12 months.

Have a look at China’s domestic airline recovery. Things are never as good as they seem, they’re also not as bad as you think. JMHO

[wishiwasupthere]

A little bit of positivity, about a 1/3rd recovery in 2 months.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1730x912/1a8360f5_74e6_4111_b7d1_d7710a09f763_934d3fddfc38fdb36e9eed3 e1992ec63435e2e13.jpeg

[normanton]

20% of what? 2019 Seat Capacity? Revenue?

787s will kick off with London and LA, followed by the usual Asian suspects. A few times a week to begin then more. Similar to route establishment. Honestly, 20% of 2019 international capacity in 12 months might be quite close. However, we are not defined by the creation of the vaccine. Virus recovery drugs are just as important and are easier to develop than vaccines.

There will come a point where the world has had enough. Hospitals will be better equipped and prepared. Better treatment will be known. The world will go on and so will air travel regardless. In short, I think services will have ramped up certainly within 18 months and QF will be back servicing most destinations again by then. No doubt it will be different. Demand will be reduced. A380s may only go to LAX and LHR, so the refurbished 6 might be it. (But I doubt it) Chicago...nup. 747s gone. But Trans Tasman and domestic leisure demand will explode.

Whether a vaccine is available will ultimately be irrelevant. Who’s to say a new variant doesn’t roll around in 12 months.

Have a look at China’s domestic airline recovery. Things are never as good as they seem, they’re also not as bad as you think. JMHO
You started reasonably then aliens came or you got carried away

[A little birdie]

Once a decision is made regarding the 747 then by rights the RIN process should commence. That decision is likely to be put off as long as possible- perhaps October or November- given they don't actually want to start that process and there is already likely to be a surplus of crew on the A380 as it is.

[dr dre]

Once a decision is made regarding the 747 then by rights the RIN process should commence. That decision is likely to be put off as long as possible- perhaps October or November- given they don't actually want to start that process and there is already likely to be a surplus of crew on the A380 as it is.

I don't think a RIN was ever designed for such a large scale reduction in numbers of crew and aircraft when there are no current alternatives to replace them. A scenario where a downward cascading training of the more senior crew displacing into the next most junior role, with that pilot then displacing down and so on that could technically involve every long haul pilot could be a possible outcome. It would be prohibitively expensive and there would be almost no ability to conduct the training anyway when there is very little flying going on.

Previously reductions in numbers have also been associated with VR and ability for LWOP to fly at alternative carriers, which have helped avoid the "downwards cascading effect". Lack of cash flow and lack of carriers flying worldwide prevent those two scenarios existing.

[patty50]

Qantas sure seem to be going to a lot of effort to get everyone new jobs, their mates in the media showing how much fun people are having doing whatever.

A significant number, especially Campus critters, won’t come back.


A little bit of positivity, about a 1/3rd recovery in 2 months.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1730x912/1a8360f5_74e6_4111_b7d1_d7710a09f763_934d3fddfc38fdb36e9eed3 e1992ec63435e2e13.jpeg


Departures ≠ bums on seats. Plenty of empty planes flying between Australia and China right now.

[normanton]

I don't think a RIN was ever designed for such a large scale reduction in numbers of crew and aircraft when there are no current alternatives to replace them. A scenario where a downward cascading training of the more senior crew displacing into the next most junior role, with that pilot then displacing down and so on that could technically involve every long haul pilot could be a possible outcome. It would be prohibitively expensive and there would be almost no ability to conduct the training anyway when there is very little flying going on.

Previously reductions in numbers have also been associated with VR and ability for LWOP to fly at alternative carriers, which have helped avoid the "downwards cascading effect". Lack of cash flow and lack of carriers flying worldwide prevent those two scenarios existing.
It's for sure an interesting scenario.

The cost with a RIN and training alone would be unreal. Qantas will go with the cheapest option. Everyone will remain stood down and rotated for flying on seniority. Over time attrition and a recovery of the flying will see everyone back to some normality. I think this will take a good 2-3 years for international.

A lot of pilots wont like that, but tough. Everyone is going to take a hit.

[dragon man]

It's for sure an interesting scenario.

The cost with a RIN and training alone would be unreal. Qantas will go with the cheapest option. Everyone will remain stood down and rotated for flying on seniority. Over time attrition and a recovery of the flying will see everyone back to some normality. I think this will take a good 2-3 years for international.

A lot of pilots wont like that, but tough. Everyone is going to take a hit.

Of course this is fact as you have said it and it’s come direct from AIPA and Qantas.

[Telfer86]

Are you suggesting that International numbers will be the same in two years ? , say April 2022

Not even starting international until 2021 , allow that to slip a couple of months , so from nothing to everything in 14 months

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade & we all want to see this come back asap

But two years means everything goes on rails , vaccine developed in best case time frame , then manufactured and given to 7 B people
, no second wave or hiccup of any kind & also assuming that people won't be scared to travel internationally & there will be the same demand from business & capacity to pay

I reckon getting back to half pre-covid after three years would be a great result

[Ollie Onion]

But it doesn’t have to be a 100% return, even if there is just 20% of the network this time next year at least some will be back at work.

[Telfer86]

Hooray 20% back in 12 months & move it on from there

think the answer relies on what happens in the medical labs

[B772]

BA are to terminate over 1,000 pilots. We are still waiting for the HIV/AIDS vaccine that was promised in 1987. There was a Polio Pandemic in Australia in 1935. This resulted in isolation procedures more severe than today. The restrictions lasted 3+ years. Just in Tasmania over 2,000 were infected with 81 lives lost. The number of Australians infected with paralytic polio was estimated to be 40,000. It took 20 years for a vaccine to prevent polio to be developed.

The following University of Melbourne Faculty of Medicine article published on 18 Jan 2018 in Health and Wellbeing is essential reading.

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/remembering-australia-s-polio-scourge

[f1yhigh]

Speaking as PAX, QF have to be very careful or they will lose their top end travellers if they phase out the A380 too early without an adequate replacement. Their 787 interior is the worst J class I've ever flown on a new aircraft, and there's no F. J accounts for about 25% revenue, F for 30%, less than half, the remaining 45%, are from the back of the bus. Keeping up with EK will become harder and harder without Sunrise flights. As long as a single connection is required, EK serve far more destinations in Europe with a fantastically painless transit in DXB. LHR is an unmitigated disaster every single time (I couldn't cock up with such consistency if I wanted to), so that's on my avoid at all cost list. CDG is no better, FRA perhaps is, I don't know? But why stop there? Post COVID people will want to minimise stops. This is the time for bold expansion, slots will be available aplenty. I think they should think big and go hard as soon as the restrictions lift. Put the orders in for double the number of A350s, kit them out with mostly J and F, and fly direct to LHR,CDG,FRA,ZRH or GVA (lots of UN and diplomatic business going that way), maybe add FCO. US is already well covered once JFK has a direct.

Travel will resume. And those who have negotiated themselves into pole position will be the winners.

This is exactly why I'm optimistic sunrise will be expedited, or at the very least one time. Non stop is the way of the future.

[normanton]

They can't do it with the current fleet.

Qantas would need to purchase new 350's or potentially lease existing ones at cheap prices.

Then there is the problem that the 350's needed the extra fuel tank, and none currently in operation have it. I don't see them dropping $$$ on new planes right now, and I don't see leasing company's buying up aircraft either.

[Beer Baron]

Alan - Morning Board. We’ve got the outgoing cash flow down to $40 mil a week and the company is looking viable till the end of ‘21, in what’s obviously an economic situation the world has never seen. We’re well positioned to make the most of the recovery when it comes.

Board - Great work Alan, pull this off and you’re a corporate legend.

Alan - Just one thing, we’ve obviously got too many pilots and have to start a multi multi multi million dollar CR and RIN on 74 and 380.

Board - RIN? What’s this RIN?

Alan - Oh it’s where we retrain the senior pilots to fly the planes that the junior pilots already fly, that aren’t flying much anyway. Then make the junior pilots redundant and pay everyone ENORMOUS amounts of money while we accomplish the whole exercise.

Board - Come again?
I can envisage another conversation too:

Qantas: Hi there Fair Work Commissioner, we would like to change a section of one of our EA’s.

FWC: Ok, what does it involve?

Qantas: It’s just a minor clause that determines who gets the sack and who keeps a job.

FWC: Woah, that sounds serious! Why does it need to be changed outside a bargaining period?

Qantas: Well no one could have foreseen the effects of Covid19 on our business so the old EA rules just won’t cut it.

FWC: So these “old rules” that won’t cut it, when were they put in place?

Qantas: Ummmmm.... (mumbles under their breath) today.

FWC: What?!? Did you say today? Like today the 5th of May 2020?

Qantas: Errr... yeah, today but now they don’t suit us. Unforeseen circumstances and all that.

FWC: I’m looking at my notes here and it says you put this EA to a vote while 90% of the pilots were stood down due to Covid19, the borders were closed and your fleet was grounded. So what’s changed since then such that you now need to vary this brand new EA??

Qantas: (crickets)

[Icarus2001]

Government ministers are saying there could be no international air travel well into 2021.
is this a possibility or scare mongering. I think nonsense, especially since there are RPT international flights operating right now.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

This is exactly why I'm optimistic sunrise will be expedited, or at the very least one time. Non stop is the way of the future.

wake up and smell the coffee, it ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. The CEO just said today that the orders and the project are on ice. It’ll be lucky to happen by 2023, never mind it getting expedited. Ive lowered my career expectations for at least the next 5 years that I need to get comfy in the seat I’m in, if I’m lucky enough not to get made permanently redundant. Clinging on to fanciful ideas that aircraft orders are coming, or that they will be expedited, will only set you up for severe disappointment.

I also believe that Joyce is beginning to condition the workforce to the idea that redundancies are around the corner given his statements that “the Qantas of 2021 and 2022 will not be the Qantas of 2019... We’re looking at the scope and scale of our businesses going forward.”

[normanton]

So what’s changed since then such that you now need to vary this brand new EA??

Qantas: (crickets)
Just the long term survivability of the company. Nothing major.

[Ollie Onion]

Let’s face it, when all said and done probably 30% of us won’t have a flying job, that is the reality of the situation. This is such a unique situation, I think the only reason we haven’t seen wholesale redundancies at Qantas and Jetstar is the fact that they can’t afford it at the moment. They will keep the stand down as long as they can, Joyce is starting to talk about restructuring, shrinkage etc. Our best hope is that by the time they can afford mass redundancies the market is showing enough signs of life that the number who get shown the door will be minimal.

[dr dre]

A bit of back of the beer coaster calculations, with the current rate of burning through cash through to late 2021, the extreme cost of RINing, retraining and redundancies through the pilot group would burn the cash so quick that date would be reached far sooner. And that’s just in the pilot group.

More likely than that:

Indefinite stand-downs until future retraining is available (as long as there is a plan to fly in the future no matter what the date a stand down can be effected until that point)

Arrangements are made for alternative work positions for stood down crew until pilot positions are available (positions more substantial than Woolies or Coles but not flying aircraft).

Some incentives for crew who take early retirement

But mostly I think stand downs on a rotating basis to allow excess crew numbers to be absorbed until things return to normal. Basically job sharing, but of course will mean a loss of overall income.

I guess the crew as a whole will have to decide whether they would prefer a system of rotating stand-downs for several years and the associated loss of total income but more people will keep their jobs....
.... or a RIN’s retraining and redundancies that’ll be expensive and probably see a fair few of of the most junior and youngest crew made redundant and be on the streets without work....

[ozbiggles]

Why would Qantas or any other company employees be entitled to more substantial employment than Woolies or Coles over and above any other citizen that has lost their job?

[ifylofd]

See the leprechaun down in the southern half globe has been making false promises about dirt cheap fares. What a sham. Blind Freddy could read through those stories and press releases designed to assert a level of forward confidence price/market 'encouragement' which is rubbish, along with the assertion that the alleged cheap fares will be available on a mass basis - like 5 seats a flight. What a devious little leprechaun. Pity the readers of the mass press / fake news promoters - will never really understand the backdoorroom deals that are done under the lampshade of the Chairman's 'lounge'. Do they know what they are in for?

[Australopithecus]

See the leprechaun down in the southern half globe has been making false promises about dirt cheap fares. What a sham. Blind Freddy could read through those stories and press releases designed to assert a level of forward confidence price/market 'encouragement' which is rubbish, along with the assertion that the alleged cheap fares will be available on a mass basis - like 5 seats a flight. What a devious little leprechaun. Pity the readers of the mass press / fake news promoters - will never really understand the backdoorroom deals that are done under the lampshade of the Chairman's 'lounge'. Do they know what they are in for?

I dislike the man as much as the next guy, but in this case he’s doing his job: spruiking the airline and trying to boost confidence in the market.

As far as 2021 goes, no one, including Joyce, has a clue about what that’s going to look like. Post-virus the regulatory and political landscape will be different, the competition regulatory regime may be entirely different and the financial, industrial and demand landscapes are all going to be changed. It is still completely unknown what competition there will be, what the aircraft market will be and when or what destinations will be safe enough to schedule. To say nothing of the economy.

But yeah, back room deals aplenty being made with zero visibility. Sure.

[mates rates]

If Qantas has a straight line pilot seniority system,they are in real trouble with the cost of retraining with fleet rationalisation and the domino effect of that system with retrenchment in reverse seniority order.Virgin on the other hand, should they survive,will retrench with aircraft types that are removed from the fleet.A much more cost effective method in these sad times for flight crew.

[Chris2303]

"the Qantas of 2021 and 2022 will not be the Qantas of 2019... We’re looking at the scope and scale of our businesses going forward.”

The world of 2021 and 2022 is certainly not going to be the world of 2019.

[f1yhigh]

wake up and smell the coffee, it ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. The CEO just said today that the orders and the project are on ice. It’ll be lucky to happen by 2023, never mind it getting expedited. Ive lowered my career expectations for at least the next 5 years that I need to get comfy in the seat I’m in, if I’m lucky enough not to get made permanently redundant. Clinging on to fanciful ideas that aircraft orders are coming, or that they will be expedited, will only set you up for severe disappointment.

I also believe that Joyce is beginning to condition the workforce to the idea that redundancies are around the corner given his statements that “the Qantas of 2021 and 2022 will not be the Qantas of 2019... We’re looking at the scope and scale of our businesses going forward.”

Fair enough, can we at least agree that the flying public will prefer to fly non stop? (hence why there would be a strong business case)

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Fair enough, can we at least agree that the flying public will prefer to fly non stop? (hence why there would be a strong business case)

I’ll meet you halfway, yes, there is definitely a large portion of the market who will pay a premium to fly direct. I still think it’ll happen eventually but Qantas will need to get through and recover from the COVID crisis first. No one knows how long it will take international demand to recover, Qantas certainly won’t be taking premature risks that will spook investors.

[physicus]

The QF fleet is too old, Alan has let that slip during his reign in my view for far too long to make the bottom line look better. And along the same line, the level of cabin quality I'm offered in F and J is outright embarrassing - although I admittedly haven't been on a refurbed A380 yet - but am told F is the same and J is the same as the 787, which is a knee bumping exercise in claustrophobia.

But that could all turn into a blessing in disguise, a dip into the war chest could now provide a fleet renewal that sets QF up for a position to handle non stop ULRs into European destinations and providing a significant edge. Now is the time to negotiate the purchase of the A350s as well as the slots. All can be had at an extra rebate with everyone desperate to make a sale. I hope Alan is just playing the strings of politics with the announcement that sunrise is one ice, to make the upcoming job losses more palatable. It might just be a restructuring in disguise.

I'm sorry to put that so bluntly, I realise several participants here appear to be working for QF. I have for well over a decade brought my money to QF, several $100k all up. As a former airline pilot myself I see below the glitter on the surface and value the safety culture up front (and in the back when they're not too self important about it).

PAX like me are happy to pay a premium to avoid a stopover. But not at the cost of getting dropped off in the slums of Heathrow. And the showers up front in the EK A380s admittedly have been a deciding factor on which outfit I choose (albeit on QF flight numbers, so QF still gets their share). As I like to say to my wife when we're on those flights, at least we'll die in style. And that's all I can say about that.

[V-Jet]

Qantas dropped the ball. No question - now they are fighting for survival (arguable survival) I notice a change in the writer of company missives. At least, they seem far better educated as it appears to me.

This is clearly out in the wild, it's mutating and (I've just read) an even more virulent Italian strain has evolved.

Methinks this will be the gift that keeps on giving - and for years to come. Could I love the Chinese and especially their bio labs more???

[Asturias56]

This is clearly out in the wild, it's mutating and (I've just read) an even more virulent Italian strain has evolved.

Methinks this will be the gift that keeps on giving - and for years to come. Could I love the Chinese and especially their bio labs more???


everyone of those statements is false news..................

[mmmbop]

This thread displays the sort of bottom feeding vermin that write authoritatively without any form of knowledge or valid information but just to incite others. Quite a few posts on here have zero substance.

An article in The Australian claims that there will be at least 4 times the rate of suicides in Australia for at least the next 5 years due to the effects Coronavirus. For the first time, I wish that people on here posting propaganda and essentially just writing rubbish to mislead others could be prosecuted to the fullest extent off the laws. You deserve it - because the cr@p being posted is going to cause someone to tip over the edge. You are never going to know about it directly, and will continue on your smug, bullsh$#ing ways, but in the background that is what you will have left in your path.

And no, I'm not feeling unstable. But I have spoken to a few colleagues who are, and it became quickly apparent that a source of their increased anxiety was reading these threads. Thankfully I've managed to convince them to not come here for information because it has proven over and over again to be the least valid source of that.

But it has proven the greatest source of angst and bs in aviation. By little people, pretending to be all-knowing big people.

[Fatguyinalittlecoat]

With respect, if you’re that close to the edge, might I suggest seeing a professional and don’t come here. This is a rumour network. By definition it is supposed to be full of crap. What is it with the new generation of sooks on here telling everyone else what they can and cannot write, because some snowflake might get their knickers in a twist? Grow up, and seek help.

[mmmbop]

With respect, if you’re that close to the edge, might I suggest seeing a professional and don’t come here. This is a rumour network. By definition it is supposed to be full of crap. What is it with the new generation of sooks on here telling everyone else what they can and cannot write, because some snowflake might get their knickers in a twist? Grow up, and seek help.

It's not the new generation, its the old one. :rolleyes:

Your comments merely prove the point and demonstrate how completely clueless you are about mental health issues. :ugh::ugh:

[Scooter Rassmussin]

I think post Covid the direct flights will be in demand.
A good start would be a hub out of Darwin direct to the UK and Europe with Current 787s.
Im sure Qantas could invest in the infrastructure required in Darwin and purchase a large share if not 50% in the Airport so at least some of the fees go back to QF group, unlike the debacle in Perth.
We need to learn from the Covid Crisis that keeping as much as possible in Australia is the best thing we can do for Jobs and Australia, time to forgo some of the greedy penny pinching for sky-high profits at the expense of Australia.
Im not sure of the technical nature of the possible payloads from DRW to LHR though .

[V-Jet]

Asturias 56 - I didn't make those comments lightly.

Various studies (many published) are categorical about CV mutating. It would be bizarre for it not to!
Two new studies have recently been released analysing SARS-CoV-2 mutations. One study (https://jvi.asm.org/content/early/2020/04/30/JVI.00711-20), from Arizona State University, discovered a large DNA deletion in a virus sample taken from a patient in Tempe.The second study, currently still a pre-print (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2) from the Los Alamos National Laboratory, tracked mutations throughout the outbreak, and hypothesised that one strain of the virus is more infectious than the original Wuhan strain.The Arizona study generated three full-length SARS-CoV-2 genomes from a series of samples; they found that one of these genomes, which they've named AZ-ASU2923, had a large deletion - 81 DNA base pairs - in a gene called ORF7a.The ORF7a gene creates an accessory protein, which helps the virus infect, replicate and spread inside the human host. Specifically, the protein is thought to help the virus to evade our immune system and kill the cell once the replication process is complete.

As for the virus being the product of a Wuhan Lab, whilst there isn't (yet) a smoking gun, it is vey, very likely that it was a military virus - and that is bad for number of reasons.
1) Ground Zero was Wuhan - the 35th largest city in China - 11,000,000 people.
2) Wuhan is the location of the main Chinese Military bio weapons lab.
3) The Chinese have never specifically said who patient zero is.
4) The story is a wet market - selling christ knows what but I would describe all such things as evil.
5) As near as the Chinese have come to a patient zero that person never actually visited the wet market.
6) The DNA sequence released by the Chinese apparently has sequences that don't appear in nature. Mutations are always possible, but what are the odds of a mutation vs genetic engineering?
7) The head of the Wuhan Lab spent ten years working at the University of North Carolina working on Corona virus sequencing. That person left UNC to become head of the Wuhan Bio Weapons Lab.
8) The Chinese are highly defensive on anything to do with this and are publicly alleging that the US released the virus in Wuhan - co-incidentally the very same city as their own bio weapons lab?

Do these facts 'prove' the virus came from a weapons lab? Not quite, but what are the odds of ALL those being true and the virus NOT being an escaped military virus? It's highly unlikely.

Where it's come from now is irrelevant really, except that business is unlikely to recover properly until there is a vaccine and if it is a military virus a vaccine will be a lot harder and more time consuming to arrive at. Airlines, particularly, are at the very front of the front lines of this and it is not going to be a pretty picture for a long time to come.

Don't be so selfish about this either. Think of Alan. Alan must be absolutely beside himself having to borrow money without handing most of it out to himself!

[Sprite]

V-jet...did you get these points from the Epoch Times film? Did you notice it was *heavily* edited. Whoever they interviewed was cut every few seconds, they could have said the opposite to what came out in the film.

A sample from France from December tested positive to the virus, they hadn’t travelled. So many unknowns...

[V-Jet]

Sprite - no, I haven't seen any film from anyone on batflu, but yes for the unknowns. Including we don't know exactly how the thing is spread. It would be hard to say for certain (impossible) that anyone who had this thing in December (or earlier) hadn't opened a parcel containing something from Wuhan.

Only one 'known' is relevant.

We know we don't have a vaccine. No vaccine = at best a very limited travel/tourism/hospitality industry.

[Keg]

Bunch of French military were in Wuhan in October. Many of them report being sick when they returned home. That is currently being investigated as to whether it was COVID.

[ruprecht]

With respect, if you’re that close to the edge, might I suggest seeing a professional and don’t come here.

Yeah, good one.

The trouble with people on the edge is that they don’t realise how close they are. Be kind.

[dr dre]

As for the virus being the product of a Wuhan Lab, whilst there isn't (yet) a smoking gun, it is vey, very likely that it was a military virus - and that is bad for number of reasons.


I hate to thread drift away from the topic but that theory has to be debunked.

SARS-COV-2 is NOT a bioengineered weapon so say the following scientific sources:

The virus evolved naturally (https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html) and has zero hallmarks of human manipulation (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9) or laboratory engineering (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1733440).
The Wuhan Lab (a civilian, not a military facility) has been praised by fellow scientists as world class (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/) and it's lead virologist is considered a global expert in the study of corona viruses (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/).
Multiple Public Health Scientists have praised the work of the lab (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext)and their transparency in sharing information.

[Keg]

It doesn’t have to be bio-engineered to still have escaped from a lab. More likely though it’s mutated it’s way from a more benign disease to this currently more deadly one.

[V-Jet]

Dr dre. - I take your point but I think ‘debunked’ might be too strong a term.

Basically, I hope it’s completely innocent and the Chinese are victims of this, but I suspect that’s not the case.

Whether Xi, Kim or Blofeld concocted this or not, really is largely irrelevant. It has all the hallmarks of a military style ‘weapon’ and has literally stopped the (western) world in it’s collective tracks.

If it’s genuinely natural it will probably be easier to fight.

If it’s a military weapon or similarly created virus it will probably be very much harder to fight.

Until there is a vaccine the travel and hospitality sectors of the world economy are on life support.

This shows no sign of lessening it’s impact and anecdotal evidence suggests that this thing is just warming up in the US.

As of last week there were 30 MILLION Americans out of work. These figures are incomprehensible. Aside from the drain on the public purse, from Pilots perspectives that’s 30MILLION likely not spending (forget travelling) for Thanksgiving, Christmas of course far worse - that’s international, Europe looks like Depression ++ so far (and that worked out well last time!) Aussies not going to Europe, it’s staggering. Not postponed spending either, but cancelled.

We’ve got Depression Era unemployed but we did it in 4 weeks, not 4 years. Jobs lost, but also money lost - evaporated, never to be seen again.

My main point is the only way out is a vaccine. Tested and manufactured in enough quantities to be meaningful. Until that happens there will be little to base a future on.

[Beer Baron]

I find criticism of the QF fleet a bit funny at the moment. I work there and for years I have complained about their underinvestment in mainline aircraft but ironically right now it is probably the company’s saving grace.

If they had spent $5-10B on a new international fleet that is sitting grounded for 12-24 months then the balance sheet would be looking pretty ugly right now.

It used to frustrate me no end that with the 787 fleet they would drip-feed the firm orders on a year to year basis. However if we now had 35 firm orders on the books due over the next 3 years the accountants would be very worried and I’d be worried about my job.

With fuel prices through the floor the existing fleet is still competitive and the refurbished A330’s have the same product (love it or hate it) as the newest ‘Dreamliners’.

So while I’d love to be flying the latest and greatest fleet and have dozens of new aircraft arriving each year, in this new reality we find ourselves in it’s lucky that’s not the case. Not good management, more dumb luck.

[V-Jet]

Even more staggering to me is that I have to grudgingly agree with BB above. Truly appalling management and business acumen (as well as jobseeker) really seems to have worked in Qf’s favour.

I still loathe the little vermin though...

[Lookleft]

Not good management, more dumb luck.

Or it could be good management. QF survived the Asian financial meltdown in the mid 90's, They then coped with 9/11, SARS the GFC and now this. It could very well be the case that the reason they did drip feed aircraft orders is they were aware of the effects of sudden downturns and its effect on the bottom line. That they were very quickly able to convert assets in to cash suggests they had a "black swan event" business plan ready to go.

[maggot]

shame about all the buy backs eh

[George Glass]

Does it? OK Boomer.

Are moderators going to continue to put up with this clown or is mindless invective now the standard on Pprune ?
Given the circumstances I don’t think that would be smart.

[Obie]

So, Beer Baron, I noticed in your post #45 you mentioned ":crickets "...I think I know wot you mean, but, would you like to elaborate? I think Keg would know wot you mean also!?

[Lookleft]

shame about all the buy backs eh

I am not a management apologist and the level of corporate greed amongst the executive is appalling but I am sure events such as this (maybe not on this scale) are considered. Qantas has been around for 100 years so they must know something about how the global aviation market works.

[SecretAngel]

Or it could be good management. QF survived the Asian financial meltdown in the mid 90's, They then coped with 9/11, SARS the GFC and now this. It could very well be the case that the reason they did drip feed aircraft orders is they were aware of the effects of sudden downturns and its effect on the bottom line. That they were very quickly able to convert assets in to cash suggests they had a "black swan event" business plan ready to go.
Yeah, I grudgingly feel this is right. In addition to learning from those crises, it could also be that Joyce learnt from the massive orders he inherited - Qantas has spent years pushing back the last 8 A380s which have no obvious place on the route map, and cancelled 35 B787s which would have arrived right as QF was trying to deal with the ME3 taking over as the dominant hub-and-spoke operators. Qantas seems to be able to restructure the group A320/1neo order multiple times with little difficulty (which I presume they've been able to do, because they built flexibility into the contract), and has been able to pick up exactly as many 787s as it wants to fly key routes. Making massive bets on what the future will look like is inherently risky; giving yourself the flexibility to match the fleet to the times helps manage that risk - to me, that's good management.

The other part, that I think gets overlooked in the whole 'share buybacks' debate, is that QF has been buying the 787s outright, as well as paying back and extending its debt, which means it seems to have had pretty easy access to finance in this crisis.

[V-Jet]

Joyce and the entire management team are a disgrace. That they are incapable of making a single decision that might benefit the airline into the future is written in stone.

They inherited a quasi domestic monopoly and staff who actually cared.

Theyve ruined the staff, and haven’t ordered a single jet. Just for one second imagine what Qf would be like if the 380’s were 777’s.

For not doing anything except paying themselves they have extracted and sold a kings ransom from Qantas shareholders so to describe them as anything but gobsmackingly lucky (I’d say incompetent) is going too far.

They have been lucky beyond belief. Total incompetence has led to a lucky happenstance. Their only talent they have has been in paying themselves ROYALLY and doing so at the expense of the airline, it’s shareholders, the staff, service and engineering,

Gross incompetence, greed and owning a monopoly domestically which they can and have milked disgracefully is the only thing they can claim ownership of.

[Lookleft]

As this thread lurches from one thread drift to the next I would only add that if luck was the only difference between one incompetently run airline in Oz and the other then VA must have just been unlucky. I certainly don't disagree that in the pursuit of profit the staff have been put to the sword and that management are a ruthless pack of bastards but I don't think that Qantas has relied on an exceptional helping of good luck to be in the position they are in now.

[dr dre]

but I don't think that Qantas has relied on an exceptional helping of good luck to be in the position they are in now.

Lufthansa losing $1 million per hour, United Airlines lost $2 billion 1st quarter, BA, AF/KLM, CX all losing similar amounts.

QF losses down to $40m per week, which even accounting for a smaller size is far less. Their domestic competitor filed for VA, they are at least 18 months away from that position. QF is in this position due to good discipline and good management. Even though it did delay career progression for pilots good financial discipline and not spending like drunken sailors on big aircraft orders has put them in an enviable position.