Budget post Covid

[typerated]

I have a nasty feeling that Options for Change and the 2010 cuts will seem small potatoes compared to what is coming over the horizon.

Obviously no fat in the system so what might be vulnerable?

Carriers (One, Both?)

the full 148 F-35's?

Obviously the Arrows, BBMF, Bands and all the none direct stuff will get a good hard look at.

Hard to imagine Arrows moving from Scampton in the short term and all the expense involved.

Personally, If I was treasury I'd scrap all the C-17's and A-400's - if they are gone it is hard to imagine how we could support an war outside Europe - the last thing the budget would need is another Afgan/Irag gig

[trim it out]

Personally, If I was treasury I'd scrap all the C-17's and A-400's - if they are gone it is hard to imagine how we could support an war outside Europe - the last thing the budget would need is another Afgan/Irag gig
Hard to imagine how we'd support any exercises abroad too...

[Green Flash]

The Army has about 500 horses. They can't be cheap to keep.

[racedo]

The Army has about 500 horses. They can't be cheap to keep.

A lot cheaper to keep than fuelling a single F35 for a week.

[racedo]

Obviously no fat in the system so what might be vulnerable?


There is lots of fat in the system. Lots of special interests keeping hold of spending to justify empires.

If you were building the services from sctrach what would you have, start there and compare it to what is now in existence. The start would be to perform intense surgery to get to there. The vested interests would be screaming to the press.

Paring back some of the Foreign office budget that funds overseas expeditions might also be a start. Funding overseas expeditions under "Foreign Office" sounds a bit hollow when staff have not got PPE to look after people in the health service.

A large look at NHS should also happen as £500 million a day is spent on NHS. The veneration of NHS as saviours is wonderful but it should not become a sacred cow where inefficiences, incomptence and fraud are allowed to continue.

[trim it out]

Maybe a reduction in flying pay (Recruitment and Retention) if people flock to the military for stability and don't bang out to the airlines as much? :E

[Green Flash]

Racedo, I take your point but the PR of seen to be getting rid of the nags in lieu of front line kit might be in play, ditto HMS Victory and BBMF (I don't believe I just said that :sad:). Another thought; British Defence Forces, anybody? Have our days of Expeditionary warfare gone?

[felixthecat]

Maybe a reduction in flying pay (Recruitment and Retention) if people flock to the military for stability and don't bang out to the airlines as much? :E

They won’t be banging out to the airlines for a long time now thats for sure ;)

[racedo]

Racedo, I take your point but the PR of seen to be getting rid of the nags in lieu of front line kit might be in play, ditto HMS Victory and BBMF (I don't believe I just said that :sad:). Another thought; British Defence Forces, anybody? Have our days of Expeditionary warfare gone?

When someone can justify expeditionary warfare and pay for it.

Doing it to support big business which is what it has been doing, is no reason to do it.

[esa-aardvark]

No budget cuts

Seeing what the forces have been used for during the Pandemic, I
think they should be formally re-purposed to have a "Civil protection"
role, and then receive budget allocations for that. I gather that after
swine-flu and SARS epidemics meetings and "thought experiments" took place,
but no actual preparations, nor equipment stockpiled. My neighbours company
was actually able to supply 4000 hospital beds for; guess where ? Which they
had previously procured from the Health service and kept in stock.

[ACW562]

Ditch Air Cadet Gliding. Its been massacred any way. Its only pennies in the overall budget. But the Penny pinchers at the MOD / RAF would consider it a tick in the box.(and promotion ! ) PS.. Sorry......just my cynical my showing its self.

[racedo]

No budget cuts

Seeing what the forces have been used for during the Pandemic, I
think they should be formally re-purposed to have a "Civil protection"
role, and then receive budget allocations for that. I gather that after
swine-flu and SARS epidemics meetings and "thought experiments" took place,
but no actual preparations, nor equipment stockpiled. My neighbours company
was actually able to supply 4000 hospital beds for; guess where ? Which they
had previously procured from the Health service and kept in stock.

I am uncomfortable using military for civilian purposes, ok as a very temporary back up but that is it.

[typerated]

No budget cuts

Seeing what the forces have been used for during the Pandemic, I
think they should be formally re-purposed to have a "Civil protection"
role, and then receive budget allocations for that. I gather that after
swine-flu and SARS epidemics meetings and "thought experiments" took place,
but no actual preparations, nor equipment stockpiled. My neighbours company
was actually able to supply 4000 hospital beds for; guess where ? Which they
had previously procured from the Health service and kept in stock.


I really dont think there will be money for much

Tax falls through the floor and benefits sky high.

Probably NHS budget will rightly increase too.

[etudiant]

Surely with massive unemployment and an economy in deep distress, the priority will be on restoring activity, irrespective of the budget balance.
So I think it is the best of times for intelligent spending proposals, stuff that the treasury would have squelched in an instant previously now has a chance to be considered.
What is missing is the actual proposals. Has everyone in the UK military been stricken?

[Big Pistons Forever]

Canada's deficit is projected to go from 19 Billion dollars last year to potentially 200 Billion this year. As a middle power like the UK, albeit at a lower tranche in the power projection pecking order, anybody currently serving in any branch of the Canadian Armed Forces is delusional if they think there is not going to be massive changes in how the CAF is funded in the future.

In a perfect world it is time for the all the branch elders get together and put aside inter service bickering and come up with a plan to manage defense cuts of 10%,20%,30%,40% and 50 % and a doomsday 75%. One thing is for certain, if senior leaders let the politicians make the force capability decision for them, they are not going to like the results

One of the unpalatable realities, is that for Canada, per capita defense dollars go in the order of Air Force - Navy - Army. A 50 % cut, which is my prediction, means an Army centric CAF with just enough air assets to support mobility and just enough other Air Force and Navy assets to meet the national sovereignty mission. It pains me to say this as a Navy veteran but the Army gives the most bang for he buck. It would mean the whole sale parking of a large part of the Air Force and Navy assets and the cancelling of many land warfare capabilities. .

While terrible in the short term. I actually think it would be good in the long term because it would force a total reset and require a cold clear eyed answer to the fundamental question, "Why do we have a Military and what do we as a nation, want it to do" ? The brass hats better have good answers when, not if the budget ax falls......

I would suggest the UK Military is in a broadly similar position to Canada with a special caveat for the nuclear forces.

[typerated]

Canada's deficit is projected to go from 19 Billion dollars last year to potentially 200 Billion this year. As a middle power like the UK, albeit at a lower tranche in the power projection pecking order, anybody currently serving in any branch of the Canadian Armed Forces is delusional if they think there is not going to be massive changes in how the CAF is funded in the future.

In a perfect world it is time for the all the branch elders get together and put aside inter service bickering and come up with a plan to manage defense cuts of 10%,20%,30%,40% and 50 % and a doomsday 75%. One thing is for certain, if senior leaders let the politicians make the force capability decision for them, they are not going to like the results

One of the unpalatable realities, is that for Canada, per capita defense dollars go in the order of Air Force - Navy - Army. A 50 % cut, which is my prediction, means an Army centric CAF with just enough air assets to support mobility and just enough other Air Force and Navy assets to meet the national sovereignty mission. It pains me to say this as a Navy veteran but the Army gives the most bang for he buck. It would mean the whole sale parking of a large part of the Air Force and Navy assets and the cancelling of many land warfare capabilities. .

While terrible in the short term. I actually think it would be good in the long term because it would force a total reset and require a cold clear eyed answer to the fundamental question, "Why do we have a Military and what do we as a nation, want it to do" ? The brass hats better have good answers when, not if the budget ax falls......

I would suggest the UK Military is in a broadly similar position to Canada with a special caveat for the nuclear forces.


Interesting points..I think all you can say is there will be blood on the floor between the services - as usual!

I'd forgotten about Trident replacement - If it carried on it might be THE defence budget!

Also will be interesting to see what happens in the US, especially if Trump stays in power. Can't imagine he will understand the realities and cut back defence spending...
He'll also still be pressing NATO for the 2% commitment!

[Countdown begins]

If you want to ignore the very real and definite threat from the two other massive super powers it’s a no brainer.
It would also be worth looking back to the late 1930s and the aftermath from 1945. It is now time to see if anything at all was learnt.
China and Russia will take what they want, when they want if you want to instantly balance the books.
iF Russia took the Falklands when we have a defence force, if China took New Zealand, if Russia moved into northern Canada- we’d have sent the invite.
The IR has a single chance to put things right for the clear and present danger, if they don’t we will see rude behaviour this decade.
Lets live with the debt, let’s cut many of the nonsense made up roles, let’s become efficient, let’s be ready to fight with The hardware we have, not pens and Word documents. Let’s stop buying Mink carpets and be accountable for the fraud that is still over looked when it comes to CEA etc etc. Lets get ready to see any pay rises offset by higher taxes. Lets stop the vanity projects.
Lets not hand a massive advantage to our opposition, who are better at exploiting our weaknesses than we are at identifying them.

[safetypee]

'Trident replacement'; isn't that already ring fenced with an independent budget, not part of defence ?

'Trump and NATO 2%'; defaulting nations could strengthen the Trump view of not wishing to fund the defence of Europe, thus enabling his defence cuts by tit-for-tat withdrawal, but beware Finland, Norway. Some facets of this could aid the UK; excuse to withdraw from international 'policing' (vs national interest: medical, food, oil).

'Super Powers take what they want'; post WW2 the acquisitions were defensive border buffering opposed to territorial gain. Ensuring vital resources would be a concern now if that involved oil; unlikely if immediate future demand remains low. Prime resources could be the basics, food, water, contributing means of pacifying internal dissent; Russia, China, track record shows both capability and experience in this.
Not so the US, particularly if imported resource is goods and/or people (food / agriculture), those which challenge the complacent, world dominant, 'rich culture' - money. Compare this with post WW2 US dominated economics, but if the US couldn't have their own way, new ground, new politics …

[Not_a_boffin]

[QUOTE=safetypee;10771977]'Trident replacement'; isn't that already ring fenced with an independent budget, not part of defence ?
QUOTE] Urban myth. Has not been so since Polaris. Dwarfs spending on most other projects, including carriers F35 etc.

Watch out for Chally 2 units having been essential to delivery of C-19 tests kits once this is over.

[ORAC]

with the deficit governments are going to be running for the net couple of decades and required defence spending is, frankly, going to get lost in the noise.....

[pr00ne]

Countdownbegins,

"If Russia took the Falklands, If China took New Zealand, if Russia moved into Northern Canada?"

Are you David Icke?

[dead_pan]

Hmm it does make one wonder why we spend all this moolah on our defence (from ourselves) when such damage can be wrought by a strand of RNA.

For me, I'd take a hard look at all that armour and vehicles parked up at all those ex-RAF bases, the Trident replacement, the carriers (we just had a 10+ year capability gap with no real issues), all front line fighters (why so many given we're only probed by the occasional Bear), and all of our overseas commitments

[dead_pan]

I
iF Russia took the Falklands when we have a defence force, if China took New Zealand, if Russia moved into northern Canada- we’d have sent the invite.


Err Russia can barely mount an offensive in its own backyard, let alone half-way around the globe. This bigging up of the threat Russia allegedly poses is the realm of US defence contractors desperately trying to justify some new attack helicopter etc they are hoping to secure the contract for.

[Asturias56]

"If Russia took the Falklands" :cool:

[ORAC]

Not Russia, but China........

https://theasiadialogue.com/2015/10/29/china-and-the-falklands/

.......Beijing’s tradition policy is to explicitly support Buenos Aires’ claims to the Falklands. In December 2011 then Chinese President Hu Jintao’s special envoy Jiang Shusheng, and chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, said (http://en.mercopress.com/2011/12/26/china-and-argentina-ratify-crossed-support-for-taiwan-and-falklands-claims) “solidarity with Argentina on the Malvinas issue is an invariable position of China’s foreign policy”. China is keen to emphasize the alleged parallels, in her view, between the Falklands and Taiwan. Both Beijing and Buenos Aires believe the wishes of the population involved to be no bar to their territorial claims. The PRC may also be interested in the natural resources, oil and fisheries, found around the islands. In addition, China may also see the Falklands through the prism of her growing interest in the Antarctic.......

[Countdown begins]

Err Russia can barely mount an offensive in its own backyard, let alone half-way around the globe. This bigging up of the threat Russia allegedly poses is the realm of US defence contractors desperately trying to justify some new attack helicopter etc they are hoping to secure the contract for.

I’d suggest an immediate anal-head extraction, and a read of the press, Chumley.

[Countdown begins]

"If Russia took the Falklands" :cool:

Just for my understanding are you anything to do with the military, and if so what?
You seem to have plenty to say, but seems there’s no depth.

[VinRouge]

I think the scale of the problem may well lead to drastic measures, of the sort not seen since the great wars. I can definitely see some form of asset haircut - every with net assets over 300k including housing stock, the old pension fund, takes a haircut of between 1 and 20%, the highest percentage for those who have accumulated the most wealth. We may get grannies downsizing from all those massive Home Counties 5 bed properties they have been living in on their own. What ever percentage, you are given it as a loan with rate set to CPI, term the same as the percentage value. This will halve state debt as well as addressing intergenerational inequity which is raising its head more significantly at present than any til I can remember.

if you think this is mad, Cyprus did just this in 2013. It was rather cutely named a “Bail In”. I think the level of pension spending will take a hit, the wrinklies have had years of triple lock with the state pension twice that of Jobseekers on a weekly basis. A lot of miffed unemployed people will see the disparity.

As for the NHS, I think like us previously, they need to find out where it all goes. 107 billion and unbelievable decisions, including holding no reusable PPE stock for a pandemic? Would the military get away with arguing we couldn’t go to war as we have run out of gas masks or filters? Don’t think so.

don’t forget, once this nonsense is over, we have the lunacy of Brexit, the sunlit uplands with herds of non-fruit picking unicorns to look forwards to.

dont like it? nNo.11 gave us a warning when this all kicked off that the bill will require paying. Unfortunately, despite being dead opposed to a lockdown, as the virus didnt look too different to flu (which it has proven to be for the under 60s without conditions) we weren’t really given an option to say no were we? I’m mighty threaders with it all at the moment, not least due to the damage this will do our economy and our children’s futures.

I think the over 67s can wave goodbye to the free TV licence too! 😂

[Countdown begins]

I think the scale of the problem may well lead to drastic measures, of the sort not seen since the great wars. I can definitely see some form of asset haircut - every with net assets over 300k including housing stock, the old pension fund, takes a haircut of between 1 and 20%, the highest percentage for those who have accumulated the most wealth. We may get grannies downsizing from all those massive Home Counties 5 bed properties they have been living in on their own. What ever percentage, you are given it as a loan with rate set to CPI, term the same as the percentage value. This will halve state debt as well as addressing intergenerational inequity which is raising its head more significantly at present than any til I can remember.

if you think this is mad, Cyprus did just this in 2013. It was rather cutely named a “Bail In”. I think the level of pension spending will take a hit, the wrinklies have had years of triple lock with the state pension twice that of Jobseekers on a weekly basis. A lot of miffed unemployed people will see the disparity.

As for the NHS, I think like us previously, they need to find out where it all goes. 107 billion and unbelievable decisions, including holding no reusable PPE stock for a pandemic? Would the military get away with arguing we couldn’t go to war as we have run out of gas masks or filters? Don’t think so.

don’t forget, once this nonsense is over, we have the lunacy of Brexit to look forwards to, the sunlit uplands with herds of non-fruit picking unicorns to look forwards to.

dont like it? nNo.11 gave us a warning when this all kicked off that the bill will require paying. Unfortunately, despite being dead opposed to a lockdown, as the virus didnt look too different to flu (which it has proven to be for the under 60s without conditions) we weren’t really given an option to say no were we? I’m mighty threaders with it all at the moment, not least due to the damage this will do our economy and our children’s futures.

I think the over 67s can wave goodbye to the free TV licence too! 😂
Great post! I too see the drastic fiscal position we’re in. Fingers crossed they don’t try to balance the books in a few years!

[ACW562]

late 1950s. UK 33,000 dead with flue version. 1968 80,000 UK dead with another Chines origin virus. No lock down and society carried on. Those alive that is.

[Pauljw]

Correct ACV562 , I was 8 then at Changi , it was if I remember the Hong Kong flu , It wasn’t good as I caught it 😫
kind regards

Paul

[racedo]

The lets spend billions on the basis that someone may invade us and we need it now mantra has zero chance when faced with an economy collpasing.

Great have lots of toys when 6 million are unemployed.

[VinRouge]

late 1950s. UK 33,000 dead with flue version. 1968 80,000 UK dead with another Chines origin virus. No lock down and society carried on. Those alive that is.
latest research from Bonn is showing that case fatality is well below the previously expected figure 0.37% My bet that by the time this is over, there will be 0.2% CFR, no different than seasonal flu. The country needs to be gripped by the minerals and told to man up (unless you are over 70 or have a chronic condition, in which case hide at home and don’t lick door handles)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

my second bet is that once this passes, the weekly fatality stats will be well below average for at least 6 months. This has just wiped out the unfortunately Ill and aged. And the Ill + aged.

[pr00ne]

ACW562,

All true, but those deaths were spread over a much longer time period, not one of them killed 29,000 in 8 weeks. Not one of them overwhelmed the NHS with so many hospital cases with one in three of those admitted dying.

[PPRuNeUser0211]

latest research from Bonn is showing that case fatality is well below the previously expected figure 0.37% My bet that by the time this is over, there will be 0.2% CFR, no different than seasonal flu.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

my second bet is that once this passes, the weekly fatality stats will be well below average for at least 6 months. This has just wiped out the unfortunately Ill and aged. And the Ill + aged.
I'm getting quite bored of going around and finding myself having to point out the infection rate of COVID 19 in the general population, amongst other things. If you want some actual science check out the following:
.https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

For what it's worth, medical professionals all over the world generally don't call for the world to be shut down over flu. In one city with a decent spread of COVID before going in to lockdown (NYC) more than 19,000 are already dead and the hospitals just about ran out of capacity. I politely suggest you all go speak to any medic there (several of my family are) and ask them how closely COVID resembles flu. I'd wager they're more qualified to talk about it than anyone on an aviation forum.

[VinRouge]

ACW562,

All true, but those deaths were spread over a much longer time period, not one of them killed 29,000 in 8 weeks. Not one of them overwhelmed the NHS with so many hospital cases with one in three of those admitted dying.

Didnt exceed 29,000 in 8 weeks? are you sure? have you adjusted for the change in UK population, then to now?

Next, we didn't have lots and of people living well past their seventies with modern medicine managing multiple chronic conditions. This is a clear-out courtesy of mother nature as unpalatable as it may be. 92% of fatalities are over 70. 95% have single or multiple chronic conditions. You have more chance of dying of an RTA if you are under 10 and healthy this year and there have been only 1400 fatalities in the UK under 60. That includes under 60s with chronic conditions. The solution is very simple. Back to work for those that can, complete lock down (an army of volunteers are available for your shopping) for those who are elderly or vulnerable. Over-70s are 20 times more likely to require hospitalization than the under 60s too.

We also have never had a globalized pandemic of a coronavirus before, meaning this is novel to the human immune system, everyone is getting it. 0.3% mortality rate though is in a similar range to Flu.

All in though, this whole situation is out of proportion and by all accounts,of control by Western Governments. It's such a shame that only one nation, Sweden, has been able to have an adult to adult conversation, without the rabid screechings of mass media driven paranoia taking control.

[VinRouge]

I'm getting quite bored of going around and finding myself having to point out the infection rate of COVID 19 in the general population, amongst other things. If you want some actual science check out the following:
.https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

For what it's worth, medical professionals all over the world generally don't call for the world to be shut down over flu. In one city with a decent spread of COVID before going in to lockdown (NYC) more than 19,000 are already dead and the hospitals just about ran out of capacity. I politely suggest you all go speak to any medic there (several of my family are) and ask them how closely COVID resembles flu. I'd wager they're more qualified to talk about it than anyone on an aviation forum.

Your article completely overlooks the fact that they are discovering that hordes more have had this than originally thought. CFR is not a useful indicator, unless you have had widespread community testing, which they have not in New York.

The issue is not lethality for the bulk of the populace. How many deaths in the UK from the under 70s with no chronic conditions in the UK? If you don't know, look it up. Yet we are still allowing over 70s to do supermarket visits and exercise in inner city areas. Why are we not locking down over 70s and vulnerable people in totality (and of course given support) and allowing the rest to carry on? Utter lunacy. Calling retired NHS workers back to frontline roles, whilst you know that 20% of over 70s catching this will be hospitalized? One of the most ill-thought out plans in this whole sorry experience.

The UK under 60s total fatality figure is 1400 at present, but includes those with known chronic conditions. However sad this figure is, is this fatality rate among the economically productive worth 2.4 billion a day in lost economic production, destruction of livelihoods, lives and the abject poverty this shutdown is going to cause? 10 billion a week in Redundancy prevention? The 1 in 5 small businesses that are never going to open their doors again? How many HS2 programmes could we have funded by the end of the month with all of that? Hip ops, cancer research funding, transplants, decent kit for the Army, Navy and Air Force? How many university grants for people from disadvantaged backgrounds? Utter, utter lunacy.

By the way, do you know how many working aged men committed suicide as a result of the post-2008 austerity programme and how many people died due to mental health issues and poverty? The "cure" is going to slaughter (albeit silently) multiples of the number that will be taken by Covid.

This is a pandemic. Its horrible. But they happen with surprising frequency. We are cratering our economy with impacts to not only current working age people but their children and possibly grandchildren. There will be far more deaths as a result of what we are doing to the country than what this virus is doing to its victims. The net gain is what exactly, mindful a targeted quarantine would provide much of the same effect?

Unfortunately, listening to a select quorum of professionals, such as Ferguson of Imperial has gotten us into this mess. His model lacking any international peer review is a joke among epidemiologists globally. We are too focused on saving every life, rather than minimizing the impact in the medium long term. When did we last have an economist presenting the impact to the public purse from this flight of folly on the 5 P.M. brief?

Also, want to explain where the exponential growth in cases and deaths is in Stockholm, with a higher population density than London have gone? Something is not right with the model, because guess what? they used the Flu transmission model for this virus. NNo one knows how it spreads, yet we chose the most destructive path out of fear. And why? Well, Corona is comparable to Ebola, according to many national newspapers as of two days ago. The wanton fear mongering that caused mass panic in not only this country, but also globally, lead to governments to soil their pants and jump onboard the biggest collective self frag of this century. The Case Fatality rate has fallen consistently from the initial prediction and is now shown across a number of case studies, including the 1/10 of what Ferguson used in his deeply flawed and internationally picked apart model. Do we see this widely televised? Laura Kunesberg fess up that we got it all a but wrong on aunt Beeb? Nope, they dont do that do they? There is going to be a whole load of egg on peoples faces when the wash up is done.

Global flu deaths on average are around 389,000 people per year. The upper range for a bad year is 660,000 Flu (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/) We aren't past the lower figure yet for the supposed doomsday virus, 5 months into the year, with the first cases occurring in late 2019. This isn't a global crisis of health, its a global crisis of leadership and communication.

In terms of qualification, I've had it, family have had it, no worse for 2 of 4 than mild flu. Wife had 0 symptoms but had detectable viral load. I had it the worst and was laid up for 2 weeks with no sense of smell, excessive tiredness but was back in and signed up to fly 3 weeks after I showed first symptoms. I was almost disappointed. at the operational level, sure, its different. For the 99.7% of healthy people under the age of 70 not wanting to get the Scanning Electron Microscope or protein test out,symptomatically its pretty much flu. Im one of 20 at my work who has had it - therefore more like 200-300 who have actually had it.

[LGW Vulture]

Your article completely overlooks the fact that they are discovering that hordes more have had this than originally thought. CFR is not a useful indicator, unless you have had widespread community testing, which they have not in New York.

The issue is not lethality for the bulk of the populace. How many deaths in the UK from the under 70s with no chronic conditions in the UK? If you don't know, look it up. Yet we are still allowing over 70s to do supermarket visits and exercise in inner city areas. Why are we not locking down over 70s and vulnerable people in totality (and of course given support) and allowing the rest to carry on? Utter lunacy. Calling retired NHS workers back to frontline roles, whilst you know that 20% of over 70s catching this will be hospitalized? One of the most ill-thought out plans in this whole sorry experience.

The UK under 60s total fatality figure is 1400 at present, but includes those with known chronic conditions. However sad this figure is, is this fatality rate among the economically productive worth 2.4 billion a day in lost economic production, destruction of livelihoods, lives and the abject poverty this shutdown is going to cause? 10 billion a week in Redundancy prevention? The 1 in 5 small businesses that are never going to open their doors again? How many HS2 programmes could we have funded by the end of the month with all of that? Hip ops, cancer research funding, transplants, decent kit for the Army, Navy and Air Force? How many university grants for people from disadvantaged backgrounds? Utter, utter lunacy.

By the way, do you know how many working aged men committed suicide as a result of the post-2008 austerity programme and how many people died due to mental health issues and poverty? The "cure" is going to slaughter (albeit silently) multiples of the number that will be taken by Covid.

This is a pandemic. Its horrible. But they happen with surprising frequency. We are cratering our economy with impacts to not only current working age people but their children and possibly grandchildren. There will be far more deaths as a result of what we are doing to the country than what this virus is doing to its victims. The net gain is what exactly, mindful a targeted quarantine would provide much of the same effect?

Unfortunately, listening to a select quorum of professionals, such as Ferguson of Imperial has gotten us into this mess. His model lacking any international peer review is a joke among epidemiologists globally. We are too focused on saving every life, rather than minimizing the impact in the medium long term. When did we last have an economist presenting the impact to the public purse from this flight of folly on the 5 P.M. brief?

Also, want to explain where the exponential growth in cases and deaths is in Stockholm, with a higher population density than London have gone? Something is not right with the model, because guess what? they used the Flu transmission model for this virus. NNo one knows how it spreads, yet we chose the most destructive path out of fear. And why? Well, Corona is comparable to Ebola, according to many national newspapers as of two days ago. The wanton fear mongering that caused mass panic in not only this country, but also globally, lead to governments to soil their pants and jump onboard the biggest collective self frag of this century. The Case Fatality rate has fallen consistently from the initial prediction and is now shown across a number of case studies, including the 1/10 of what Ferguson used in his deeply flawed and internationally picked apart model. Do we see this widely televised? Laura Kunesberg fess up that we got it all a but wrong on aunt Beeb? Nope, they dont do that do they? There is going to be a whole load of egg on peoples faces when the wash up is done.

Global flu deaths on average are around 389,000 people per year. The upper range for a bad year is 660,000 Flu (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/) We aren't past the lower figure yet for the supposed doomsday virus, 5 months into the year, with the first cases occurring in late 2019. This isn't a global crisis of health, its a global crisis of leadership and communication.

In terms of qualification, I've had it, family have had it, no worse for 2 of 4 than mild flu. Wife had 0 symptoms but had detectable viral load. I had it the worst and was laid up for 2 weeks with no sense of smell, excessive tiredness but was back in and signed up to work 3 weeks after I showed first symptoms. I was almost disappointed. at the operational level, sure, its different. For the 99.7% of healthy people under the age of 70 not wanting to get the Scanning Electron Microscope or protein test out, its pretty much flu.

And the sad thing is, the doom mongering media are not even questioning the direction that Governments are taking.

You'll probably get a lot of flack for this post but there are many more people that agree with your post I think than care to admit. Our children and children's children might be picking up this mess in 10 to 20 years time. Now that's something worth doom mongering about.

[Bob Viking]

I’m not going to dissect your entire post, mainly because I have no idea what the correct answer is.

However, there is one glaring contradiction that I can’t allow to pass unchallenged.

You mention that a normal flu season kills 3-600000 people but that Covid has ‘only’ killed ~260000 in five months. This willfully ignores the fact that this number comes after a global lockdown of unprecedented scale. This does not happen every flu season.

You seem to base your hypothesis on the fact that you have had Covid and it didn’t kill you so it can’t be that bad. I also guess that your personal stance on it is based, more than a little, on how it has affected your industry.

I don’t know anyone personally who has had a confirmed case yet (I know a few people who may have had it) so I have very little knowledge of the reality of the disease. All I do know is I’ll do as I’m told and trust the government for a little longer at least.

My more relaxed approach is clearly a result of how my livelihood has been relatively unaffected. I would almost certainly feel differently if I were in your shoes.

Please don’t take this post as me picking a fight but I just wanted to highlight a slight air of disengenuity in your maths.

BV

[PPRuNeUser0211]

I generally agree with BV on this one - you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. None of us are epidemiologists and I understand that world is like the world of aviation - ask 3 people and you'll get 4 opinions, including one that matches your particular world model.

I would absolutely say though that the vast majority of people calling for an end to lockdown are, as Vin rightly points out, at relatively low risk of themselves dying of COVID. That is kinda the point of government. To make tough calls that aren't in the interests of every individual. That's also arguably the stated reason why the government delayed entering lockdown - their argument at the time was they knew it was only sustainable for so long (for a myriad of factors). How you exit it is tricky and nuanced, but make no mistake - easing the lockdown will directly cause people to die. Not easing the lockdown will, as Vin points out, directly cause people to die. Neither of them are good outcomes, so which one is the best to do pretty much sits with which demographic you happen to be in.

​​​​​​To argue that lockdown wasn't necessary because COVID is only as bad as flu - see BV's point. It's a total fallacy. Mortality rate is only one part of the puzzle, infection rate is the other. If as many people have died with the lockdown as flu, then it's definitely a lot worse. Google the R0 for UK before and after lockdown, admittedly with limited testing, then make a simple spreadsheet leaving the R0 up around 2.5-3 and see how many people end up in ICU/dead. It isn't pretty.

It's an emotive subject. This thing is screwing people over left, right and centre, and I'm frankly glad I'm a) not in a risk category b) in a country that is supporting it's furloughed workers albeit in the short term and far from perfectly and c) has universal healthcare.

[typerated]

I also read (google) that 4.6 million people die each year from air pollution.
yet we still dig coal and oil
1.3 million die on the roads but we don't ban cars/ reduce speed limit etc.

Still - we are here now - and staring down a totally changed economy

And this thread is what defence will look like and be able to pay for in this new world - perhaps start new thread about the whys of how we got here.

[VinRouge]

All fair and valid points. But I ask one question. If this outbreak was to continue growing exponentially around the globe with no lockdown, why are we now seeing that Stockholm’s infection rate seems to have peaked? It’s not behaving anything like how the models we used previously behaved as they should. The models are potentially wrong. How has it burned out much quicker than expected, with the Swedish government now saying they will have Herd immunity in a few weeks?

There are very good reasons why R0 was so high to begin with. The fact remains, if vulnerable categories were to lock down further, I.e. no leaving the house unless to an area isolated of others, no shopping and real effort was made to supply
them (by using those as suppliers who have antibodies for example) and the rest continue and get back to work, then the same outcome desired can be obtained, low overall death rate, with the added bonus many many more will be developing immunity.

In respect to who has had it, we have vulnerable family members so it was essential we knew, you can get tests done privately. We have had 3 other cases in our relatively small village (family of skiers who went to Zermatt).

The UK government have been absolutely useless in the main. They have lurched from one populist crisis response to the other. The initial shutdown, Ventilators, PPE, testing. It’s all been handled as a piecemeal approach. I get things are moving quickly but the biggest mistake they made was by allowing a scaremongering media to continue unchecked (and they do have the legal means and political means to control this) we have lost control of a sense of reality.

All I do know is I’ll do as I’m told and trust the government for a little longer at least.

History has shown blind obedience to the government is not a good thing. Please don’t wait too much longer.

[OmegaV6]

All this bleating about why "the Government" didn't supply/stock Ventilators/PPE etc etc is a total red-herring put out for political reasons .

The Chief Executive of my local NHS trust was paid £177,500 last year .. I wonder what for ?? IMHO it is HER job to ensure HER staff have the right equipment at the right time. When we need supplies eg toilet roll... we ensure we buy it.. we don't expect the local town council to suddenly turn up with a truck ... we take resposnsibility for our company.. that is the job of management... same goes for care homes .. why were/are they charging £2000 a month to house a person, and then demanding that "someone" (read taxpayer) gives them the supplies they should have obtained using those fees.

[typerated]

All this bleating about why "the Government" didn't supply/stock Ventilators/PPE etc etc is a total red-herring put out for political reasons .

The Chief Executive of my local NHS trust was paid £177,500 last year .. I wonder what for ?? IMHO it is HER job to ensure HER staff have the right equipment at the right time. When we need supplies eg toilet roll... we ensure we buy it.. we don't expect the local town council to suddenly turn up with a truck ... we take resposnsibility for our company.. that is the job of management... same goes for care homes .. why were/are they charging £2000 a month to house a person, and then demanding that "someone" (read taxpayer) gives them the supplies they should have obtained using those fees.


For those hard of reading... this is about the defence budget... create your own thread if you want to whinge about the government. NHS, Care home or conspiracy theories..please

[dead_pan]

For those hard of reading... this is about the defence budget... create your own thread if you want to whinge about the government. NHS, Care home or conspiracy theories..please

There's a thread for all things Covid over on Jet Blast. FWIW the above arguments have been done to death.

Re the defence budget, weirdly I am sort of in agreement with Racedo. Strange times....

[Big Pistons Forever]

So what in the Defense budget for a middle power is

- Must do:
- Should do
- Nice to do
- Fluff
Is the best strategy to keep a bit of everything so you can quickly rebuild, or cut whole capabilities so you can preserve what are considered core capabilities at existing or neat existing strengths ?
Thoughts ?

[Asturias56]

I think all military budgets are in for deep cuts - the amount spent so far, the amount still to be spent and then the sums to guard against the next time will be enormous

Imagine a UK Govt . Minister having to get up and explain why he isn't going to put more $$$ into the NHS going forward? Sure some taxes will go up - but the search for cuts will also be wide ranging.

What capabilities do you keep?

[Bob Viking]

What about this...

What if the government were to realise that the world threats haven’t changed in the last five months? What if they actually concluded that what we are living through shows us those threats are potentially increasing?

Obviously we need to pay the piper for the Covid costs but is it at all possible the military will be one place where savings are minimal?

I have no more idea than any of you but it is a possibility.

Instead of living in a world of doom and gloom why not just wait and see what happens once we have a little certainty back in our lives.

Sorry if this doesn’t fit with anyone’s agenda of misery.

BV

[downsizer]

Normally I agree with you Bob, but I can't see any area that could be cut to the extent of defence....

[Bob Viking]

I’m not saying for one second I’m right. I’m just saying it’s a possibility. A remote one perhaps, but still a possibility.

BV

[typerated]

More chance of the toothfairy coming in the middle of the night and converting your Hawks into F-22's!

[racedo]

Your article completely overlooks the fact that they are discovering that hordes more have had this than originally thought. CFR is not a useful indicator, unless you have had widespread community testing, which they have not in New York.

Snipped for brevity
.

Good post.

[racedo]

There's a thread for all things Covid over on Jet Blast. FWIW the above arguments have been done to death.

Re the defence budget, weirdly I am sort of in agreement with Racedo. Strange times....

Welcome to the real world or the dark side :E or somewhere in between.

[racedo]

I think all military budgets are in for deep cuts - the amount spent so far, the amount still to be spent and then the sums to guard against the next time will be enormous

Imagine a UK Govt . Minister having to get up and explain why he isn't going to put more $$$ into the NHS going forward? Sure some taxes will go up - but the search for cuts will also be wide ranging.

What capabilities do you keep?

NHS budget is bloated, has been for decades and will remain so.

Govt has got the balls to do a root and branch review which is why you have some hospitals that are world beater and others where the paint is peeling and no money in decades.

[Asturias56]

"What if the government were to realise that the world threats haven’t changed in the last five months? What if they actually concluded that what we are living through shows us those threats are potentially increasing?"

it doesn't matter Bob - they've spent the last 2 months in the UK telling people their only hope of staying alive is more spending on the Health Service, that these people are heroes, that they are Saints. The Govt is pouring cash into to "save the economy" - you have kids making posters and videos about the health system

They can't turn round in 6 months and say " we've changes our minds - we need the money for some more F-35's" - actually they can - but they'd be hanging from lamp posts in Westminster before the night was out........

[Roland Pulfrew]

NHS budget is bloated, has been for decades and will remain so.

Govt has got the balls to do a root and branch review which is why you have some hospitals that are world beater and others where the paint is peeling and no money in decades.

Where is the 'Like' button?

[tucumseh]

but they'd be hanging from lamp posts in Westminster before the night was out........

Not sure if it was deliberate A56, but that rather enticing vision would have had a few older Tories and the Scottish legal establishment choking on their breakfast. A little episode involving Nicholas Fairbairn MP, QC and his bit of secretarial fluff in 1981.

[Asturias56]

I'm sorry I don't get the reference Tuc........ he was a "character" IIRC but a bit hard to pigeonhole.

[bigsmelly]

Soo... isn't everyone's defense budget gonna be hit by COVID?

China won't sell as much to the west.
Russia is heavily dependent upon the oil price.

Playing devils advocate - perhaps there will be less sabre rattling, and hence a safer world...

[JG54]

Soo... isn't everyone's defense budget gonna be hit by COVID?

China won't sell as much to the west.
Russia is heavily dependent upon the oil price.

Playing devils advocate - perhaps there will be less sabre rattling, and hence a safer world...

I'd venture that, as is often the case when national economies get all wobbly & promises of "Jam tomorrow" ring hollow, there will likely be MORE sabre rattling, not less.

Anyhoo, it's all an illusion. The money isn't real, the majority of 'debt' is internal and interest rates are at historic lows. Print more of the stuff and move on. There are plenty bigger issues looming on the near & medium horizons for this Ponzi scheme to occupy overly much of the national hand - wringing resource. As the 'yout' of today might opine; "Meh"...

[racedo]

Soo... isn't everyone's defense budget gonna be hit by COVID?

China won't sell as much to the west.
Russia is heavily dependent upon the oil price.

Playing devils advocate - perhaps there will be less sabre rattling, and hence a safer world...

Russia has spent the last 6 years buying gold and reducing debts. Its reserves in US$ are greater than its external Debt and has a nice few pipleines already constructed that are pumping gas and oil.

Add in 100 billion £ in Gold reserves and you will see why it is not as worried as others.

Obama's sanctions forced them to become self sufficient, in 2019 it exported more Wheat than the US............ a situation unthinkable 20 yrs ago.

[Asturias56]

Times today has a quote from various eminent folk saying the UK Defence budget will be hammered - more spending on health care, more spending on business relief until October, big hole in national finances, no plans to increase tax dramatically in case it stalls the come-back

"Something has to give" & " Several capabilities will have to go""