Future Pilots

[Callsign Bro]

Hi everybody, I hope this finds you well despite all the doom and gloom surrounding aviation and Covid.

My question, or rather an endless thought that seems to go around my mind while in isolation..... flying is in the blood, once you start, it's a love affair for life. As a student pilot all we hear about is the current weathering of the aviation industry and the anticipated lack of pportunity for us to progress into the industry post Covid.

My understanding is though, we had a pilot shortage due to a compound of issues:
1. Industry growth outstripped the global ability to train pilots. Covid hasn't dented people's confidence in flying, only taken the ability away for now. I believe a full recovery will be quite swift (provided we have ready pilots to answer the demand).
2. Certain other countries are training their students to FO or SO standard in a bid to fill the right seat to keep aircraft in the air. Progression for these pilots to Captain though will be slow as there is further training required to bring them to "Captain Ready" standard. This slows succession planning to a degree but it's a mountain that's not insurmountable.
3. An interesting statistic I read suggested that pilot influx (if not increased) was not going to match pilot retirements in the future. Sadly, the depth of knowledge leaving or stepping back in the industry was not matched by the introduction of pilots to continue to hold the mantle. How many of these seasoned, near retirement Captains and pilots are going to want to revisit their type currencies after such a long break if they're close to retirement though? (Not that I want to see distinguished pilots leave the industry, more a question of cost vs return time to the chair before having to reassess their career progression - I hope I put that tactfully enough)

My thoughts are, and I invite and appreciate further opionions, surely the future for up-and-coming pilots can't be that bad? We have an industry that suffered no hit to consumer confidence or it's ability to execute task to an excellent standard. We have a situation where a certain number of pilots are FO and SO ready but won't swiftly progress to the Captain's table and we have a question mark over the likelihood of near retirement (commercial) captains that need to evaluate their type currency, career progression and associated costs vs remaining career timeframes.......

Surely the outlook for us can't be that bad considering all of the above?

[eimin]

Hi everybody, I hope this finds you well despite all the doom and gloom surrounding aviation and Covid.

My question, or rather an endless thought that seems to go around my mind while in isolation..... flying is in the blood, once you start, it's a love affair for life. As a student pilot all we hear about is the current weathering of the aviation industry and the anticipated lack of pportunity for us to progress into the industry post Covid.

My understanding is though, we had a pilot shortage due to a compound of issues:
1. Industry growth outstripped the global ability to train pilots. Covid hasn't dented people's confidence in flying, only taken the ability away for now. I believe a full recovery will be quite swift (provided we have ready pilots to answer the demand).
2. Certain other countries are training their students to FO or SO standard in a bid to fill the right seat to keep aircraft in the air. Progression for these pilots to Captain though will be slow as there is further training required to bring them to "Captain Ready" standard. This slows succession planning to a degree but it's a mountain that's not insurmountable.
3. An interesting statistic I read suggested that pilot influx (if not increased) was not going to match pilot retirements in the future. Sadly, the depth of knowledge leaving or stepping back in the industry was not matched by the introduction of pilots to continue to hold the mantle. How many of these seasoned, near retirement Captains and pilots are going to want to revisit their type currencies after such a long break if they're close to retirement though? (Not that I want to see distinguished pilots leave the industry, more a question of cost vs return time to the chair before having to reassess their career progression - I hope I put that tactfully enough)

My thoughts are, and I invite and appreciate further opionions, surely the future for up-and-coming pilots can't be that bad? We have an industry that suffered no hit to consumer confidence or it's ability to execute task to an excellent standard. We have a situation where a certain number of pilots are FO and SO ready but won't swiftly progress to the Captain's table and we have a question mark over the likelihood of near retirement (commercial) captains that need to evaluate their type currency, career progression and associated costs vs remaining career timeframes.......

Surely the outlook for us can't be that bad considering all of the above?

I am sorry. I do not mean to be rude, but have you just landed back from Mars?

Unemployment in the two most notorious continents, over 26m in US, ECB estimates 56m in Europe.
Some countries will suffer terrible consequences in their GDP and purchase power in their population.

BA firing pilots, Wizzair, Ryanair, Norwegian, Icelandair, etc.

We are talking about, in many cases, +10000h cpt and very experienced fos.

Airbus struggling for survival (won’t go bust), Boeing slashing thousands of employees.

Where exactly do you place any future “pilot shortage”?
I would venture you can forget of any shortage well into end of this decade.

[Meester proach]

I admire your bonhomie , but this is utterly disastrous for those of us in airliners and those of you trying to get in

There will be thousands of rated and current pilots on the market. Thousands . I have type ratings on four Boeings and 10000 plus hours , but I’m looking outside aviation for five years I reckon.

[Baldeep Inminj]

I have to agree 100% with eimin, although I wonder if ‘end of this decade’ might be a bit optimistic...

My company (aviation but not an airline), employed around 14000 people worldwide until recently. We just layed off almost 5000. We travelled all over for business. My company was aware of teleconferencing etc but we liked to travel and we could afford it - until now. Travel has stopped, but we have not. We are using the internet to run our meetings etc and it is working very well - too well for us to justify flying to meetings anymore. So, my company has learned it can save millions in Airfares, and we can work from home. We also don’t have to get into a tube full of other peoples air, which millions will now be reluctant to do.
This same scenario is playing out in companies all over the world. Flying for business will take a huge hit.

Secondly, look a tourist aviation - how many people are having a financial scare right now? I don’t know the number, but it includes virtually everyone I know including me. So, take that foreign vacation (in the tube of recycled air), or keep the money in the bank and maybe have a few days somewhere more local?
Flying for pleasure will take a big hit.

Aviation is a necessity and will not die, but it will shrink rapidly and I believe permanently. For those who dreamed of a flying career, that is a hard fact to face.

Be realistic and look elsewhere would be my advice. I lived in America for many years and I cannot tell you how many Actors and Authors served me in restaurants...they had a dream, which is great, but could not accept it was almost certainly not going to happen.

You mention retirement and the need to replace people. Yes this is a truism, but shrinking fleets will delay this need for years, and look at how many qualified and experienced pilots will be chasing those jobs...you might be lucky, but be realistic.

If you really must fly (and I get it, I was the same) the consider joining the Military. I spent 29 years as a pilot in the RAF and it was wonderful.

Of course I could be wrong and it might be back to normal in 2 years...but I will bet my pension it won’t.

[PilotLZ]

It's anyone's guess how long it will take for demand for pilots to pick up again. There are way too many variables which just cannot be quantified. Any forecast at this stage is merely an educated guess based on data which may or may not be close to how things will actually play out.

When will borders reopen? When will economic activity pick up again and with what amount of damage? How long will it take to get close to the pre-COVID levels of GDP, unemployment, company revenue and individual disposable income? When will individuals be willing to travel again and when will the majority be able to afford it? Which airlines will make it and what will they look like in terms of fleet numbers, route networks and pricing? And a huge number of other questions which simply cannot be answered at this stage. That's what will determine the future of the pilot market in the years to come.

Unfortunately, right now it may appear as the end of the world. And, sadly, terms like "carnage" and "bloodbath" would not be inappropriate to describe the present state of affairs. The good news is that, with 99,99% confidence we can assume that it's not going to last forever. And not even for a decade. Solutions will be found to get the world moving again, to get people working, earning and spending. But the exact timeline of recovery depends on all those things which we don't know yet. So, for now, patience is king. Make sure you find a way to provide for yourself and your loved ones, keep an eye on the situation as many things can change quicker than we expect and, if you are certain that you want it badly enough - one day your turn to take the hot seat will come. It might not be as soon as you would like, but it will.

[Callsign Bro]

I am sorry. I do not mean to be rude, but have you just landed back from Mars?

Unemployment in the two most notorious continents, over 26m in US, ECB estimates 56m in Europe.
Some countries will suffer terrible consequences in their GDP and purchase power in their population.

BA firing pilots, Wizzair, Ryanair, Norwegian, Icelandair, etc.

We are talking about, in many cases, +10000h cpt and very experienced fos.

Airbus struggling for survival (won’t go bust), Boeing slashing thousands of employees.

Where exactly do you place any future “pilot shortage”?
I would venture you can forget of any shortage well into end of this decade. Mars was lovely thank you.
And this is what I was hoping to discuss - let's bounce some ideas around.

We HAD a shortage but what happens when the economy re-invigorates? Trying to look at both sides of the coin, the only people who can fill pilot roles are pilots. I'm hoping to get a feel for people's gut instincts or even personal experience/s when it comes to re-entering or choosing to stay out of the industry.

As far as I can see, a certain percentage will return either from redundency or furlough (will there be enough to fill industry need - who knows?). A certain percentage will choose early retirement or change path to instructing/chartering etc opening opportunities in commercial flying and a certain percentage will need up-skilling to further their career into captaincy.

I appreciate what you're saying about terminations and I'm sorry to those who have been affected but with every industry collapse/crisis there is a dissipation of skilled workers that goes along with it. Some of that dissipation takes years to recover and I don't mean just in terms of manpower but depth of knowledge as well.

I'm looking for opinions and thoughts to that end - what does your gut instinct tell you about what's coming in the future?

[The Deec]

Why put your life on hold for something that may never happen. You've got to explore other avenues and reinvent yourself, otherwise you'll become sad and miserable.
The RAF pilot summed it up, it's all about acceptance. You've got to ask yourself what will I do with myself if it doesnt work out. Some times you've got to accept that its over and it's never going to happen. It's very difficult to do but once you come to that way of thinking it gets easier knowing that you gave it your best shot and now it's time to move on.
I wish I was back in the saddle but realistically don't think it's going to happen due to age ,bad luck etc. I think I reached my peak career about 15yrs ago and that was only for a short period.. I achieved what I wanted to in Aviation and had a fantastic experience.
Like Charles Lindbergh said "In flying I tasted a wine of the gods."

[Superpilot]

Callsign Bro, I won't repeat the above, I think you've probably realised by now your specs are tinted a little towards the pink. All I'll say is 2 years, 3 years or 5 years. However long it takes, just be ready. Ready, both in terms of multiple life skills and finances. I've had my hopes and despair spread across an entire decade. The knock backs made me who I am today (a man with some great experience in two highly paid industries), so I count it as a blessing. This is the position you should hope to be in when things return to normality. As people keep singing...this industry is highly cyclic (meaning another down turn will likely feature in your early years as a commercial pilot). Good luck.

[speedrestriction]

I have been flying for 15 years or so, currently an Airbus skipper SH European low cost airline, 9000ish hours. I wouldn't be shocked if I have captained my last commercial flight. This is not like anything commercial air transport has had to weather before. Don't listen to the spin from the training outfits. IATA don't know, Airbus don't know, Boeing don't know, training organisations definitely don't know. The last think I would be doing is spending money on commercial training. There are too many unknowns. A lot of commercial flying is about risk assessment. To me, to spend tens of thousands on training is a case of committing to a course of action without gathering the required information first. Be patient, wait until you have a better idea of what is happening in the industry before making any major decisions. This is the first scene of the first act of the play. Don't be impetuous, take a deep breath and wait as long as it takes for the trajectory of the industry to become clearer.

[oceancrosser]

A young man (21) in my family is doing his PPL. He asked my advise for continuing towards CPL, and I told him not for now. Go to University, get a 3 year degree, then you have something to fall back on. Check back on flying after those 3 years.

[PilotLZ]

Wise move. A degree is well worth it even in the best of times. It's a backup qualification - but not only. A degree teaches you a number of skills which the ATPL tests never will. Examples of these are working with sources of information, researching a topic with very minimal guidance from outside, team work, perseverance and whatnot else. Not to mention that some airlines still require or at least strongly prefer candidates educated to University level. So, that would indeed be a good way to spend the time which the industry needs to recover and come back more employable and better-rounded overall.

[TheAirMission]

Not to mention that some airlines still require or at least strongly prefer candidates educated to University level.

If you are referring to airlines in Europe, as per your declared location, then I'm sorry but that is just completely untrue

[guy_incognito]

Secondly, look a tourist aviation - how many people are having a financial scare right now? I don’t know the number, but it includes virtually everyone I know including me. So, take that foreign vacation (in the tube of recycled air), or keep the money in the bank and maybe have a few days somewhere more local?
Flying for pleasure will take a big hit.. I've just picked out this bit to quote, because fundamentally I agree with everything else you wrote.

I think if you get out of the aviation bubble you'll find that most people actually aren't struggling right now. The people on our estate, none of whom are pilots or involved in aviation in any way, are currently working from home but apart from that it is very much business as usual. It's business as usual for accountants, lawyers etc., in other words middle class professionals who take at least one relatively expensive family holiday a year. It's also business as usual, if that's the way to put it, for the well off retirees who are still planning to head to the Canaries this winter. From speaking to the neighbours, I'm yet to find anyone who is worried about getting on an aeroplane, or going to another country. What I am hearing is a universal desire to get away on holiday as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I think the one area of aviation that will suffer the least in the UK (note I haven't said it won't suffer at all) is bucket and spade, package holiday flying within Europe. Business travel and long haul is of course an entirely different matter and is going to suffer massively.

[Yury Gagarin]

Less than 35.. find a other job. Aviation will never go back to the absurd pre COViD levels. The pay to fly story is over...thanks God.​​​​​

[Busdriver01]

The pay to fly story is over...thanks God.​​​​​
The way airlines are behaving, I struggle to believe that they'll be the ones paying for the training...

[ManFlex40]

Thought I'd throw in my penny's worth. I am a PPL, was hour building and planned on sitting my ATPL's in the autumn. I know now that career in aviation, as I envisioned it a year ago, just isn't a reality anymore. I've had my A Levels and now my hopes of a future career all but dashed due to this crisis. Whilst this has been very hard to accept, it's just the way the world is. I have a stable job to go back to at McDonalds thankfully, so I can keep afloat financially. I have applied for the RAF and Navy in the hope of pursuing some sort of aviation career, but like I say, my hopes and dreams are somewhat dashed for a while.

[squidie]

Thought I'd throw in my penny's worth. I am a PPL, was hour building and planned on sitting my ATPL's in the autumn. I know now that career in aviation, as I envisioned it a year ago, just isn't a reality anymore. I've had my A Levels and now my hopes of a future career all but dashed due to this crisis. Whilst this has been very hard to accept, it's just the way the world is. I have a stable job to go back to at McDonalds thankfully, so I can keep afloat financially. I have applied for the RAF and Navy in the hope of pursuing some sort of aviation career, but like I say, my hopes and dreams are somewhat dashed for a while.

Apply for the military no problem but there is going to be struggles everywhere. I also wouldn’t give up on ATPL straight away. Once you can go flying again under your PPL then keep doing so and see how the industry evolves. There is going to be no growth in the industry for a few years but it will recover to more prosperous levels and maybe then is your chance. Again it’s not going to be easy for anyone for several years or more.

I think training-wise then modular is one of the safest ways to go from now.

[planesandthings]

I've had my A Levels and now my hopes of a future career all but dashed due to this crisis.

With a slight bit of hope, if you're only just completing your A Levels you have more time ahead than nearly everyone in this forum. If you can get a military career fantastic, keep flying for fun, take whatever opportunities you find. A degree in something useful or aviation experience elsewhere will always be helpful. Life experience is valuable and in some cases there have been people up the front end of airliners who really haven't had enough.

[Callsign Bro]

Thank you all for your feedback, there's some really interesting reading above.

I probably should have mentioned some of my backstory earlier: I'm 40 this year, studying an Bachelor of Aviation (including ATPL's) - a late bloomer, I know right!? - I'm about to complete CPL's with a job offer to instruct on the table upon completing CPL + Instructor Rating. I haven't suffered quite so much hardship with Covid as I still have a job and truth be told, startup costs for university/flying equipment broke me harder than the Covid situation so I by no means have experience with the catastrophic lows some people are experiencing and maybe (mentioned earlier) this tints my glasses a little bit rose. I''m close to completing CPL's now so I still have a couple of years of ATPL 's and hours building to go so I'm not even "Industry ready" yet - mentally and life experienced yes but skill set, depth of knowledge and type rated no. I feel I've committed to the longest part of my training as it's now well past the halfway mark and like my original post mentioned (like pilots with lapsed currencies) I think there is value to push on and complete my course, even if for the moment it is just a case for my resume to say "Degree".

In saying that, instead of being a human sheep and falling for all the clickbait and horror stories out there, I'm trying to find a broad spectrum view and evaluate (risk assess) things that may sway the industry one way or the other.

There are some very valid points coming in and I value both the optimistic and not-so optimistic perspectives posed. I'm by no means misguided enough to think things will be hunky dory straight away but I'm also influenced by my grandfather's 5P's - Pre-Preparation Prevents Poor Performance so I do find a degree of value in completing my degree.... at least if things change for the better, I'll have my skills in the pocket, which is more than I can say for some classmates who are deferring from next semester just to observe the situation a little longer. I don't feel pressing on or deferring are bad decisions either way, more a case of personal circumstances at play.

In the end, none of us really know how it will play out. I have neighbours on my street who are itching to get away once restrictions are lifted, on the other side my eldest kids lost their jobs months ago so are doing it a little hard but as a general we're all getting through it. On a personal level, I'm by no means put off flying in the future. I concede, will be scrupulous with my destination but not the mode of how I get there.

At the moment, I'm taking this as a life lesson in tenacity but I AM watching the media vigorously too. Hence, I've presented here - we as a group may have more rounded and less hype fuelled views. It seems to me, I've placed my thoughts in many capable hands here, so thank you all.

[shamrock_f22]

Hi everybody, I hope this finds you well despite all the doom and gloom surrounding aviation and Covid.

My question, or rather an endless thought that seems to go around my mind while in isolation..... flying is in the blood, once you start, it's a love affair for life. As a student pilot all we hear about is the current weathering of the aviation industry and the anticipated lack of pportunity for us to progress into the industry post Covid.

My understanding is though, we had a pilot shortage due to a compound of issues:
1. Industry growth outstripped the global ability to train pilots. Covid hasn't dented people's confidence in flying, only taken the ability away for now. I believe a full recovery will be quite swift (provided we have ready pilots to answer the demand).
2. Certain other countries are training their students to FO or SO standard in a bid to fill the right seat to keep aircraft in the air. Progression for these pilots to Captain though will be slow as there is further training required to bring them to "Captain Ready" standard. This slows succession planning to a degree but it's a mountain that's not insurmountable.
3. An interesting statistic I read suggested that pilot influx (if not increased) was not going to match pilot retirements in the future. Sadly, the depth of knowledge leaving or stepping back in the industry was not matched by the introduction of pilots to continue to hold the mantle. How many of these seasoned, near retirement Captains and pilots are going to want to revisit their type currencies after such a long break if they're close to retirement though? (Not that I want to see distinguished pilots leave the industry, more a question of cost vs return time to the chair before having to reassess their career progression - I hope I put that tactfully enough)

My thoughts are, and I invite and appreciate further opionions, surely the future for up-and-coming pilots can't be that bad? We have an industry that suffered no hit to consumer confidence or it's ability to execute task to an excellent standard. We have a situation where a certain number of pilots are FO and SO ready but won't swiftly progress to the Captain's table and we have a question mark over the likelihood of near retirement (commercial) captains that need to evaluate their type currency, career progression and associated costs vs remaining career timeframes.......

Surely the outlook for us can't be that bad considering all of the above?

Training to become a pilot has made little sense at the best of times but especially now. It was always my dream and until very recently I gave it everything I had. I was utterly devastated to be rejected by AL on their cadet programme at the last hurdle... Then covid19 happened just a few weeks later.

Other than following my dream, a career as an airline pilot still didn't make much sense but now I thank my lucky stars I didn't get through and give everything up only for this to happen.

What do I have to fall back on? A decent career as an Engineer and now sales person. I've made €60k in commission alone in the last year which is more than some pilots make full stop from what I've heard.

Honestly I think you should go elsewhere for now. The airlines treat people like dirt, they're incredibly arrogant, the jobs won't be worth the crap salary they offer new starters and you can enjoy a decent lifestyle until it all picks up again in the future.

[bringbackthe80s]

Training to become a pilot has made little sense at the best of times but especially now. It was always my dream and until very recently I gave it everything I had. I was utterly devastated to be rejected by AL on their cadet programme at the last hurdle... Then covid19 happened just a few weeks later.

Other than following my dream, a career as an airline pilot still didn't make much sense but now I thank my lucky stars I didn't get through and give everything up only for this to happen.

What do I have to fall back on? A decent career as an Engineer and now sales person. I've made €60k in commission alone in the last year which is more than some pilots make full stop from what I've heard.

Honestly I think you should go elsewhere for now. The airlines treat people like dirt, they're incredibly arrogant, the jobs won't be worth the crap salary they offer new starters and you can enjoy a decent lifestyle until it all picks up again in the future.

Thanks for your very useful piece of advice.
I, like many on these forum, have been flying for 21 years, military and commercial from gliders to jets. Thankfully you finally explained how to go about the situation we’re in.

[shamrock_f22]

Sorry a couple of points I forgot to add - airline and training centre recruitment teams love to give candidates a hard time and come up with all manner of questions that make you feel bad for not having given your blood, sweat, DNA, and family life savings in the pursuit of becoming a pilot.

Human Remains in particular love to grill people with banal questions like "well if you were really that dedicated why have you only had 4 flying lessons since x date?".

Just remember your circumstances are often unique to you. Follow what's right for you.

I had to explain to that particular individual that I came from a working class family who had nothing in an environment where we were encouraged to work as plumbers or go on the dole by school (nothing wrong with being a plumber btw!). Every time I saved up, something would happen - 9/11 (I'm an Asian Muslim from the UK), local airport being shut down, paying my way through uni, looking after family, moving country, getting married etc. On top of that I worked 70-90 hour weeks so a second job to pay for lessons wasn't feasible. Life happened and I wouldn't have changed a thing - doesn't mean I didn't want to be a pilot still and found other ways to keep current with what was going out. It just always felt out of reach.

The pilot sat in the interview just smiled knowingly and said "That's exactly the journey I went through"

I'm just highlighting the above because there will always be people who will tell you it's all or nothing. Now or never. That's not true. Follow what's right for you but always make sure you have an alternative path to follow if for whatever reason things don't work out or you just find its not right for you :)

[cats_five]

A young man (21) in my family is doing his PPL. He asked my advise for continuing towards CPL, and I told him not for now. Go to University, get a 3 year degree, then you have something to fall back on. Check back on flying after those 3 years.

Depends which degree, and what you do with it as to if it's a backup. My last job was for my local council in their IT section and what got it wasn't my degree, but acing their aptitude test (and spotting the error in it!) and that they knew me from my previous employer who had seen fit to make me redundant just as they started major work for this customer. Go figure. Certainly having a degree doesn't usually guarantee you can walk into a job.

[FL Tree6]

Training to become a pilot has made little sense at the best of times but especially now. It was always my dream and until very recently I gave it everything I had. I was utterly devastated to be rejected by AL on their cadet programme at the last hurdle... Then covid19 happened just a few weeks later.

Other than following my dream, a career as an airline pilot still didn't make much sense but now I thank my lucky stars I didn't get through and give everything up only for this to happen.

What do I have to fall back on? A decent career as an Engineer and now sales person. I've made €60k in commission alone in the last year which is more than some pilots make full stop from what I've heard.

Honestly I think you should go elsewhere for now. The airlines treat people like dirt, they're incredibly arrogant, the jobs won't be worth the crap salary they offer new starters and you can enjoy a decent lifestyle until it all picks up again in the future.


Back in 2005 I went to AL to find out some information on their cadet programme. Bumped into one of their interviewers instead. He told me if I really wanted to fly then I would find a way and he was right. Best advice I ever got. No salary will ever match that feeling as you takeoff. I've been trying to make ends meet since 2005 and still wouldn't trade it in for all the commission in the world.

[shamrock_f22]

What’s best? Integrated or modular?
Whatever suits your budget and timescales.

[no more nite flights]

I think anyone even considering a Professional Pilot career for the next 10years must need a brain transplant!

1000;s of experienced Capts and F/Os on the market with absolutely zero prospects of ever getting back in the Flt deck..that is the reality we face now.

I was lucky and retired from aviation as a A310 Cpt. and now run a business with my own Seneca aircraft. My son is a CPL/IR (FATPL-£100k in debt to me) and I advised him to look at the following options:

1. Fly pleasure flights from Lytham st. Annes(if he can get a job)

2. Drive a truck at Tesco deliveries.

3. Become a window cleaner.

He opted for the latter and now makes £1500 pw 6 day week with zero pressure and a quality lifestyle.

Not being negative, but there are many ways to make an honest living with a quality lifestyle beyond aviation. Just accept the Flt deck was just a dream.

Hope we all survive the present lockdown!....... .

[pilotmike]

what does your gut instinct tell you about what's coming in the future?
It's dire. It's terrible.

[sbetts]

I'ts all very sad, my heart goes out to everyone..
I qualified in 2002 right in the middle of another notorious downturn, I kept positive though and Instructed for a couple of years, hoping things would improve, but my age was against me I was 38 at the time.
Sometimes you just have to bow to the inevitable and move on, or at the very least have a plan "B". A lot of the guys who qualified at the same time as me refused to accept that it just may not happen for them, and wasted years when they could have been re-training for something else.
Stay positive but be realistic.


Good luck all

[Wirbelsturm]

Don't touch aviation with a barge pole. Thankfully my son listened when we advised him to go to University before looking at some sort of cadet scheme.
Even when this mess blows over the unscrupulous accountants egged on by even more unscrupulous management will decimate terms and conditions to remove any 'benefit' from an already tiring and stressful job.

Go become a plumber.

[maxred]

you'll find that most people actually aren't struggling right now. The people on our estate, none of whom are pilots or involved in aviation in any way, are currently working from home but apart from that it is very much business as usual. It's business as usual for accountants, lawyers etc., in other words middle class professionals who take at least one relatively expensive family holiday a year. It's also business as usual, if that's the way to put it, for the well off retirees who are still planning to head to the Canaries this winter.

Dear God. And there lies the problem. The ''I am alright Jack'' from the top of the hill as thousands upon thousands suffer in abject misery and poverty. 1.6 billion jobs globally lost and the individuals left with nothing to eat and no earning ability. Suggest you have a look at Possil, Maryhill, Liverpool, London, open your eyes and see what is happening with the vast majority who have nothing.

To all in aviation I wish all the very best and seek ways for us all to navigate through this mess.

Round of applause for the well off retirees who will have nothing if this all goes to plan. (Except a Starbucks take away)

[Antichristpilot]

Don't touch aviation with a barge pole. Thankfully my son listened when we advised him to go to University before looking at some sort of cadet scheme.
Even when this mess blows over the unscrupulous accountants egged on by even more unscrupulous management will decimate terms and conditions to remove any 'benefit' from an already tiring and stressful job.

Go become a plumber.


Future Payscales will have 787 captains on £35k a year tops and first officers on £15k tops. It'll be a close call between becoming a pilot or an Uber driver (but then again, Uber probably won't survive this either). Plumber. Electrician, Chippy, Fruit Picker OR a PHD in AI, Astrophysics or Life Sciences.

[vikdream]

To the original poster, you initial post is non-sense. Although I think some people are being over pessimistic, I do think we will struggle to get back to 80-90 % of the flight demand we had in 2019. Probably around 2-3 years. We will never recover that extra 10-20 %, simply because some businesses have realized that skype/teams/zoom does the job too for meetings, and for free.

Once these 2-3-4 years maybe are gone, you will be behind many other wannabees, and many qualified pilots who were sadly fired during this crisis.

Training to become a pilot has made little sense at the best of times but especially now. It was always my dream and until very recently I gave it everything I had. I was utterly devastated to be rejected by AL on their cadet programme at the last hurdle... Then covid19 happened just a few weeks later.

Other than following my dream, a career as an airline pilot still didn't make much sense but now I thank my lucky stars I didn't get through and give everything up only for this to happen.

What do I have to fall back on? A decent career as an Engineer and now sales person. I've made €60k in commission alone in the last year which is more than some pilots make full stop from what I've heard.

Honestly I think you should go elsewhere for now. The airlines treat people like dirt, they're incredibly arrogant, the jobs won't be worth the crap salary they offer new starters and you can enjoy a decent lifestyle until it all picks up again in the future.

So basically you were unsuccessful, and now you're blaming the airlines because they play people like dirt? Well seeing your post, I am not very surprised.

Most pilots in decent companies get more than 60.000/year in year 1, probably 100 % in year 3-4. I made around 75.000 in year 2 in a very well known British Airline, which is not amongst us any longer. Obviously, that's RHS in the very first years.

But even if pilots made less than you, you will always look up to the sky and think "I never made it". Pilots will never look down and say "shXXXt, I lost my comission".

Sorry to be such an idiot, but it is very oportunistic to come around amid the worst crisis in this century and say that an aviation career never made much sense. I do not think every pilot thinks that. It is hard, schedules are harsh, but hey! it is the best job by far. I think we pilots know we are extremely lucky and feel very proud of what we do. And to be honest, we have been pretty well paid in decent airlines.

There are only 3 downsides of this career:
- Getting into it (and I come from a very modest family too).
- Crisis hit aviation very hard (like now)
- Not the best career for your health, but probably compensated by many other factors.

Now you can go to the traders professional forums and post there how much you love your job. Being a pilot is shXXXt, that is why you are still here.

[shamrock_f22]

Nope that's not why I'm blaming the airlines. There's a huge cultural issue within the airline industry and generations of successive pilots have done nothing to change it because they made it so sure look, why rock the boat now.

I don't have any kind of chip on my shoulder about it. Of course I'll always look up longingly at the job I thought I wanted to do since before I could even speak. The point I was making to OP was that there's plenty of other things to do in the meantime because you just don't know what's around the corner. Find your own way.

And I used the money as an example because the financial struggle is a huge issue and always has been. Some people are motivated by the money and perceive that pilots are rolling in it. Again the point I was making was that with my base + commission I make more than most captains in long haul do much earlier on in my career and I'm incredibly lucky for that. It's one way OP could end up funding their training if they needed to.

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[shamrock_f22]

Back in 2005 I went to AL to find out some information on their cadet programme. Bumped into one of their interviewers instead. He told me if I really wanted to fly then I would find a way and he was right. Best advice I ever got. No salary will ever match that feeling as you takeoff. I've been trying to make ends meet since 2005 and still wouldn't trade it in for all the commission in the world.
Yeah I totally understand. My personal circumstances are a little different to before and there's other things keeping me from pursuing it now.
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[Baldeep Inminj]

To add to my earlier point, I am not living in an aviation bubble.
My neighbours and friends are doctors, lawyers, accountants, landscapers and sales people. Also some retired couples sitting on good investments.
ALL of them are worried, and 2 of my friends who retired around 8 years ago (not pilots) and who were living off investments are both considering going back to work and/or selling their homes, such has been the financial hit.
Somebody May be living in a bubble but it isn’t me - everyone is affected by this, and tourism will take a huge hit.

[pilotmike]

From an earlier post:
I've made €60k in commission alone in the last year which is more than some pilots make full stop from what I've heard. .​​​​​​
followed by:Some people are motivated by the money and perceive that pilots are rolling in it. Again the point I was making was that with my base + commission I make more than most captains in long haul do much earlier on in my career​​​​​​
Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's clearly time for a reality check. I don't know what exactly you heard, but long haul captains make a heap more than you,.. unless your base pay is over £150k, which seems most unlikely.

At least, they did until a month or 2 ago - which turns us full circle back to the very point of this thread!

[halbeir]

I am an LCC tagged cadet due to start integrated training commencing at the end of this year. The school has told me that the airline has not informed them of any intention to void the contracts of this cadet intake. I can imagine a couple of reasons for this, the main one being that the two years training means we wouldn't be taking a salary until around 2023, and that given the type rating will be bonded, we are a source of revenue and return on investment in simulators etc. Equally one would expect that cadets would be the first to go given what the the job market for FOs may look like in 2023 and a potential abundance of desperate experienced pilots, so I can't quite understand why I haven't been cast off, and of course I would be devastated to recieve such news.

[jpsingh]

I dont think I fit in the “Future Pilots” category as I retired in Mar 2018 so more like “ Past Pilots”. There are pilots of all hues. Some of them are there for the Love of flying, others for the money and the glamour. I have been through the Indian Air Force and have flown everything from Gliders to Fighter jets. In 1993 took premature retirement and after obtaining ATPL joined civil Aviation . Started with cargo Airlines and flew later with domestic Airlines in India and flew for Oman Air for the last nine years. Flying is a profession like none other . It is demanding and challenging and that is why it is so exhilarating and satisfying! Its not a job per se
Its profession ,hobby ,pleasure all rolled into one. If some young man is attracted to it for money and glamour, I think it will take a bit of time .It took about 4 years after 9/11 when the damage was localised . Now when the pandemic is worldwide the recovery may take a lot longer. The business traveller has also learnt that you can achieve better efficiency by video conferencing. We can all expect a new Normal. Cargo Airlines will continue to be in demand and cruise ships may actually pick up because they can have better facilities in terms of medical and social distancing . Wish you luck and in the end too much planning some times doesn't necessarily mean a good decision. As per aerodynamic Laws , a bumble bee should not be flying but the bumble bee does not know aerodynamics so it flies anyway! Cheers !

[zulucharlie]

I am a future cadet and i am yet to start my training, having indefinitely pulled the plug on starting training due to this overwhelming crisis. I don't believe for one second the people on this forum who say that cadet pilots will have a wait of 10 years after graduating flight school in order to find a job as nobody can possibly place a timeframe on this. However in my personal situation I am going to wait at least a year until I even think about starting flight training dependent on how I vision the pilot job market in 2 years time from that point. For those in training i would recommended finishing your training to the highest of your ability regardless of time taken as the higher results you get would help you to stand out from the crowd in a few years when we have a cadet pilot job market again. For those on here talking about starting training now is simply dazzling when the extent of the damage to the industry is not known. My main message to aspiring pilots is don't give up hope but just to please realise the extent of the crisis and take the foot off the gas a little in order to analyse the industry in the coming months/years as I wouldn't recommend starting training until we see significant signs of recovery that suggest there will be cadet pilot jobs 2 years after that point.

[shamrock_f22]

From an earlier post:

followed by:
Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's clearly time for a reality check. I don't know what exactly you heard, but long haul captains make a heap more than you,.. unless your base pay is over £150k, which seems most unlikely.

At least, they did until a month or 2 ago - which turns us full circle back to the very point of this thread!
Not sure what bubble you think you've burst - and not sure what qualifies you to think you know how much I earn!

There's plenty of current and former pilots who talk about their pay on the website and those who are most vocal are the ones who have added their 2p to wannabe and future trainee forums. Go have your reality check discussion with them.

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[pilotmike]

You clearly stated that you made 60k Euros commission last year, plus base pay, as well as boldly claiming that you make more than most long-haul captains.
From a recent FT article:
Lufthansa... Top level captains earn a fixed salary of about Euro240,000, rising to Euro285,000 with the additional pay benefits. At Air France, the average salary for long-haul captains is Euro230,000, which does NOT include benefits, bonuses or profit shares.
From those figures, you'd be needing base pay over Euro170k to live up to your optimistic boast that "I make more than most captains in long haul". I simply said that seemed most unlikely, and I stand by that.

As that appears to irk you, possibly with hindsight you might have been slightly less brazen than coming to a pilot's public forum to boast openly about out-earning long-haul captains. Of course you're more than welcome to come back and tell us all exactly what you earn, if you still feel the need to do so. We'll stand by to be impressed, indeed in awe of you if you really do earn such unlikely, high sums.

As for advising me to go to another forum for a reality check, I have no need, thanks. It appeared - and still does - that you're the one who will benefit most from the reality check.

Now, whether you're right or I am: whether you're blessed to out-earn those long-haul captains or not, it really doesn't matter two hoots to anyone, except you. So long as you are happy with what you earn, that is all that matters. If you want to believe you out-earn long-haul captains, again, that's completely fine. And obviously, if you still feel the need to prove to everyone that you do indeed out-earn those captains, then I'm sure you'll be straight back with the relevant numbers to impress us all over again. Standing by.

[Spid]

https://www.axios.com/future-air-travel-coronavirus-bcee181c-1d3a-4305-992d-053d5c80a909.html?utm_source=newsletter

This article shows how aviation might change. Summing up, a bigger pain in the ass to what it changed after 9/11.

it’s true that this is a bad moment make decisions, as spirit is as low as it can get, and we are all full of pessimism.

I’m 2 months into ATPL integrated course. I dropped my aerospace engineering job to follow this dream.

Now I have to re-rethink my life.
This pandemia affects all. Some die, some loose loved ones and others see their dreams crushed.

I still can’t accept reality and every thought of going back to a plan B hurts like nothing before. But it will get better. Time heals everything.

My recommendation to those like me that just started the course, is go modular and take it easy.

No one can foresee what is going to happen, but most likely is not good for our purpose.

[covec]

Good article, Spid. Well, by “good” I mean “informative in a pessimistic way”.

I assume that you are young enough to try again “one day”. I’m not. Well into 50s but Loganair were kind enough to offer me a Sim Assessment for FO. Cancelled. I’ve basically been told by HR “no chance, now”. At least I have an FI job that relies upon MOD sponsors (but we’re grounded at mo’ and have a full complement of FIs).

My daughter & fellow mums in their circle say that no way will they fly abroad with youngsters - it’s the whole air travel infrastructure thing - underground, buses, taxis, security, security trays, retail areas...then trusting that an aircraft is cleaned thoroughly. And that’s before getting to destination.

Damn and damn again. Damn.