China's expansionist strategy

[Imagegear]

Noting China's recent push into the South China Sea, sabre rattling noises regarding Taiwan, and the latest Australian "Gum under the Shoe" insults, I cannot help but
see remarkable parallels with Hitler's annexation of Austria and the masquerade at the Polish border crossing. Russia's annexation of the Crimea, and the ongoing activities in eastern Ukraine, etc.

I am fully expecting Chinese troops to start to infiltrate borders, or create diversions with various countries in the region.

Where do we think that a scenario is likely to be played out first?

IG

[DirtyProp]

North Korea? Sorry, couldn't resist....:O

[Asturias56]

Image - none of these things are new

Why would they start a war with anyone when they're still trying to get the country back on its feet after the CV-19 problem?

the "It's Hitler all over again" has been (mis-used) to justify every military intervention since WW2 - especially Vietnam and Iraq. If you want to repeat that exercise..............

[Imagegear]

North Korea? Sorry, couldn't resist....:O

Actually that's not way off the mark. Should NK go super-critical, there will be a need to lock down the nuclear arsenal very quickly.

IG

[Imagegear]

Arcturias56

Yes - there is an impact from COVID but if they are to strike anytime it is while the world is distracted, and they don't seem to be particularly focussed on their own internal COVID issues and more concerned with leveraging power.

I agree that it will not be Hitler all over again, but the parallels are there.

IG

[Easyheat]

China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire, but it does consider Taiwan to be a part of China. The building of small airports in the SCS is a first line defence against the American PO Fleet.

The thing is that they want a unification with Taiwan before 2049, 100 years for the CM Mao era, and China as we know it today. But not only that. They want a big celebration in 2049, not being remembered for the however the Taiwan was handled. In general it took 20 years for the Chinese to not being in bad standing after the 1989 tiananmen sq, so that means that they have 10 years from now, to handle the Taiwan issue also including a military solution. The US, Brits and French know this, hence they have upgraded their attention and patrols in the international waters at the straits of Taiwan. China will not risk a WW, but for Taiwan, a destruction will be acceptable for them. Therefore is the solution to keep patrolling, these international waters.

The Hong Kong issue will be over soon. But clock is ticking fast regarding Taiwan.

Just MHO.

[bridgets boy]

1. Realise that waiting a year or 10 until the next major pandemic comes along is better that conjuring up plausible deniability if you release a virus from a lab.
2. Prepare the battle space in any areas of interest that have a long lead time (e.g. South China Sea).
3. Be able to absorb the effects of a pandemic in your own population.
4. Do some window dressing by knocking up a hospital or 2 in very short order.
5. Be able to hide the real effects on your own population by controlling the media, medical stats reporting etc
6. Be ready to act the good guy and win influence in key areas (PPE to Italy to undermine EU).
7. Know that your own economy will recover quicker than the Wests's, so you will be able to take an even more dominating share of markets as your economy recovers.
8. Time your moves in to your other areas of interest when the World's attention is most distracted.

All you need is a large enough group of people to be able to handle operations on more than one front...

[Imagegear]

That's it then bridgets boy - the Chinese have everything in place - so we are going to have to man up or shut up.

IG

[Imagegear]

China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire, but it does consider Taiwan to be a part of China. The building of small airports in the SCS is a first line defence against the American PO Fleet.

The thing is that they want a unification with Taiwan before 2049, 100 years for the CM Mao era, and China as we know it today. But not only that. They want a big celebration in 2049, not being remembered for the however the Taiwan was handled. In general it took 20 years for the Chinese to not being in bad standing after the 1989 tiananmen sq, so that means that they have 10 years from now, to handle the Taiwan issue also including a military solution. The US, Brits and French know this, hence they have upgraded their attention and patrols in the international waters at the straits of Taiwan. China will not risk a WW, but for Taiwan, a destruction will be acceptable for them. Therefore is the solution to keep patrolling, these international waters.

The Hong Kong issue will be over soon. But clock is ticking fast regarding Taiwan.

Just MHO.

With China grabbing large swathes of the South China sea which borders on many countries in that part of Asia, it's not a stretch to see something being engineered in the littoral. We are also talking Oil here, not a rare commodity at the moment but in the future, may becomes so. China playing the long game.

IG

[diginagain]

https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/belt-and-road/overview.html

[Not_a_boffin]

Noting China's recent push into the South China Sea, sabre rattling noises regarding Taiwan, and the latest Australian "Gum under the Shoe" insults, I cannot help but
see remarkable parallels with Hitler's annexation of Austria and the masquerade at the Polish border crossing. Russia's annexation of the Crimea, and the ongoing activities in eastern Ukraine, etc.

I am fully expecting Chinese troops to start to infiltrate borders, or create diversions with various countries in the region.

Where do we think that a scenario is likely to be played out first?

IG

No reason for them to put troops anywhere. They've set out to pursue a zone of influence into the Pacific which both provides a buffer zone to PRC itself and also massively increases their proximity / influence to other Asian nations. They said they'd do it, drew maps about what they were going to do, built islands / atolls where they said they would and have essentially proceeded as per plan. Other than the odd FoNEx and some stiff words in the UNSC, no meaningful challenge to this presented.

A fair bet they've managed a fait accompli.

[Imagegear]

Boff,

Yes, but when does island hopping stop, and peninsular grabbing begin?

I fear it's on the cards (or in the tea leaves)

IG

[BirdController]

Up to a point, I'm with IG. Before this evil that has befallen us, I spent considerable time in Vietnam working alongside the locals. Asking the Man on the Saigon Omnibus what he fears for the future and the answer is invariably China and invasion. And surely now is the very time for China to act, while the world's attention is elsewhere. Should it want to, of course?

[magyarflyer]

should watch the German documentary "the new Silk Road" very enlightening
confirms the below ideas about Chinese expansion, worrisome about the balkans and expansion into Eastern Europe (Hungary etc)
worth the 2 episodes

[safetypee]

magyr, :ok:

Viewing the China expansion as an economic policy opposed to a military intention; to date it has made significant progress. There will be military defensive positioning to follow up - providing support to foreign nations in return for use of ports or infrastructure, most likely defending a much needed resource. Look towards Africa.

Thus it is interesting to reconsider this aspect post Covid.
China's manufacturing capability appears to be faring as well as any in the current economic climate. The dependance on oil may not be as significant now as would be basic materials, food, cheap manufactured goods. Thus world positioning vs essential resource could dominate - consider the focus on rare earth metals used in computers, phones, etc.

In parallel there is high level education, technology development, energy resource, and a relatively low cost infrastructure to support these.

[Imagegear]

….and of course Australia is a significant mineral resource supplier to China.

One only has to look at the sheer number of Chinese ore carriers waiting to load in the Northern Territories. They have also of course, "Acquired access" by buying out the Port of Darwin.

In 2015, the Chinese-owned Landbridge Group won the bid for a lease of Port Darwin. The Northern Territory Government granted the company a 99-year lease for A$506 million.

The question is whether the market for Chinese products will continue post COVID. Personally I see a punitive tariff framework coming to the fore.

IG

[Fareastdriver]

In 2015, the Chinese-owned Landbridge Group won the bid for a lease of Port Darwin. The Northern Territory Government granted the company a 99-year lease for A$506 million.

By the time that lease is up Australia will be an atoll.

[Asturias56]

"China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire, but it does consider Taiwan to be a part of China."

Ermmm the Govt of Taiwan also considers it is part of China

"The question is whether the market for Chinese products will continue post COVID. Personally I see a punitive tariff framework coming to the fore." - that assumes those imposing the tariffs can source things from elsewhere - I don't think they can in many cases - or not in the volumes and prices voters expect.

In my opinion there is only one thing that would cause the Chinese to kick of a major military action - and that would be Taiwan declaring full independence. That is something the mainland will never, ever, countenance.

[Just This Once...]

Ermmm the Govt of Taiwan also considers it is part of China.

I doubt that Govt of Taiwan considers itself as part of Communist China in any shape or form. Pretty hard to be a functioning democracy if did.

About the closest you could get to the 'One China' or the 'One Country, Two Systems' is the Communist (revisionist) view of the '1992 Consensus', but that view is not shared by Taiwan.

Consider this statement from the Taiwanese President in early 2019:First, I must emphasise that we have never accepted the "1992 Consensus." The fundamental reason is because the Beijing authorities' definition of the "1992 Consensus" is "one China" and "one country, two systems." The speech delivered by China's leader today has confirmed our misgivings. Here, I want to reiterate that Taiwan absolutely will not accept "one country, two systems." The vast majority of Taiwanese also resolutely oppose "one country, two systems," and this opposition is also a "Taiwan consensus."
The govt of Taiwan would support China rejecting the current totalitarian communist system and 'bravely move towards democracy'. Not sure anyone was holding their breath with that one.

[aviation_enthus]

Despite the aggression in the SCS, the Chinese military is not ready for a large scale confrontation.

Their economy would be devastated because it’s so highly geared towards exports. In about 10 years when there is more domestic demand maybe they’ll consider it.

If you look through all the noise regarding building LHD’s in ‘months’ (rubbish), the navy has at best two training carriers and a very limited amphibious assault capability. The bases in the SCS make up for this lack of power projection but wouldn’t stop the US Navy sitting off the east coast of Taiwan assisting in a war overhead Taiwan tomorrow.

The Air Force is the same, the development of stealth fighters and bombers will be much further advanced 10-15 years from now. By then all the US will have is more F-35’s!!

The PLA is being reorganised into regional commands and reduced in size to improve its quality.

Today China could give the USA/Japan a decent sting in the western pacific and SCS. But they wouldn’t win. Give them 10-15 years on their current trajectory and the USA may find it difficult operating west of Hawaii. Guam will need significant work (SAM defence and hardened shelters) to make it more than a fighter outpost in any conflict. I’d argue the US would not risk bombers landing there in a US-China war.

China has changed under President Xi and will not return to being a ‘cuddly panda’. But there is plenty of grey areas to be exploited before we find ourselves at war.


“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”

[Imagegear]

Aviation Enthus

Your comment re President Xi is an indication that China's ideology is under threat so they must manufacture a territorial threat in order to justify its existence. All the West can hope for is that the population see through this subterfuge and manufacture a new democratic ideology. I too am not holding my breath but if I did I may not have to hold it for too long.

IG

[Timmy Tomkins]

And if these fears are realised, how well could the west cope? Given what we see in the UK with cuts over the llast 10 years trashing vital areas of the NHS, how about our military, which has been pared back big time as well.

[masalama]

This is a blog written by one of our ex-colleagues at Jet Airways, India and talks about what’s being discussed here , quite illuminating👍
https://insightful.co.in/2020/04/19/world-war-iii-has-begun-and-we-are-unaware/

[Big Pistons Forever]

Interesting calculation on China’s part. When push comes to shove is the West willing to invest blood and treasure to stop China from invading Taiwan. My guess is no

With respect to broader military action, I would suggest that Military’s that prioritize senior leadership political purity over military competence, which is a feature of all dictatorships, don’t do well when they come up against a modern Western military.

China’s military might look pretty on the parade square, but when the fights on I think they will prove a lot less capable then they look.

[FullWings]

China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire
Funny old thing, I’ve always thought that historically, China was more interested in China than anywhere else. Yes, they’ve been buying up assets all around the World but that’s sensible, long-term thinking. If they were planning to invade other countries, why pay for them first?

Looking at a lot of Chinese backed Western businesses, they appear to be doing well on a mix of long-term investment and hands-off management... So far so good and possibly a better solution that the boom-and-bust that Wall St. and their ilk represent?

[4runner]

Image - none of these things are new

Why would they start a war with anyone when they're still trying to get the country back on its feet after the CV-19 problem?

the "It's Hitler all over again" has been (mis-used) to justify every military intervention since WW2 - especially Vietnam and Iraq. If you want to repeat that exercise..............

they are willing to take “acceptable casualties”. Covid deaths were acceptable to the Party and by design. This is all premeditated. They’re thinking 100 years ahead and without emotion. The West is thinking of next election and quarterly stock reports. We also have a hostile free press and social media. They have a politically controlled propaganda machine press and they control social media. We act with emotion and attempt to avoid offense. They are cold and calculated with 1.4 billion mouths to feed. They are neither sentimental or guided by religion or morals. They have already colonized Africa. They have made “loans” to corrupt leaders in Africa. The construction of the projects that they loaned the $$$ for, are done by Chinese construction companies. They know the loan won’t be paid back. They will then repossess the infrastructure. This was also premeditated. They want Africa, but with no Africans there. They ship counterfeit malaria medication and do nothing for health or education.

[4runner]

Interesting calculation on China’s part. When push comes to shove is the West willing to invest blood and treasure to stop China from invading Taiwan. My guess is no

With respect to broader military action, I would suggest that Military’s that prioritize senior leadership political purity over military competence, which is a feature of all dictatorships, don’t do well when they come up against a modern Western military.

China’s military might look pretty on the parade square, but when the fights on I think they will prove a lot less capable then they look.

acceptable losses and shear numbers. Also, they don’t need to establish military superiority if they own everything. No one can project power like the US. The Chinese can occupy though.

[carmel]

When push comes to shove is the West willing to invest blood and treasure to stop China from invading Taiwan.

As Lord Palmerston once observed "nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests".

[Imagegear]

So with the understanding gained from the above, and the prospect of total world economic and military domination, what would be an appropriate counter-strategy to address the balance of power?. It seems to me that the remaining options are very limited and most include military action, so "first strike" anyone?

I am also reminded of Obama's outgoing remarks to Trump on his way in - "...and don't mess with the balance of power". In my opinion, Trump has done just that - for better or worse will be debated in history.

IG

[dr dre]

All the West can hope for is that the population see through this subterfuge and manufacture a new democratic ideology. I too am not holding my breath

IG

China has bought several hundred million out of poverty into the middle class in the last few decades. Tens of millions of Chinese now travel overseas each year (and don’t try to claim asylum despite portraits of the country being an authoritarian gulag).

The Chinese see Western democracies suffering a decline in their middle classes, a decline in wealth, an increase in debt, a rise in populism and a decrease of stability. Truth be told they probably don’t wish to move from their current system.

[Imagegear]

China has bought several hundred million out of poverty into the middle class in the last few decades. Tens of millions of Chinese now travel overseas each year (and don’t try to claim asylum despite portraits of the country being an authoritarian gulag).

The Chinese see Western democracies suffering a decline in their middle classes, a decline in wealth, an increase in debt, a rise in populism and a decrease of stability. Truth be told they probably don’t wish to move from their current system.

Yes, absolutely: To the victor, the spoils"

Parallels with the British Empire of a century ago. So another 100 years, a couple of world wars, and we are back to square one, less a significant block of earths population.

IG

[PPRuNeUser0139]

I can unreservedly recommend this analysis (https://tinyurl.com/yc2scr66) of China's strategy by H. R. McMaster, a retired United States Army lieutenant general, who is a former White House national security adviser.
China has become a threat because its leaders are promoting a closed, authoritarian model as an alternative to democratic governance and free-market economics. The Chinese Communist Party is not only strengthening an internal system that stifles human freedom and extends its authoritarian control; it is also exporting that model and leading the development of new rules and a new international order that would make the world less free and less safe. China’s effort to extend its influence is obvious in the militarization of man-made islands in the South China Sea and the deployment of military capabilities near Taiwan and in the East China Sea. But the integrated nature of the Chinese Communist Party’s military and economic strategies is what makes it particularly dangerous to the United States and other free and open societies.
It's a long piece - so make yourself a coffee first.

[Asturias56]

"what would be an appropriate counter-strategy to address the balance of power?. It seems to me that the remaining options are very limited and most include military action, so "first strike" anyone?"

Are you crazy????

A nuclear war - just what the world needs - not now, not any time..........................

As a number of posters observe countries rise, countries fall - it's the way of the world and generally the causes are far far deeper, and far longer in gestation than a few years. In the long haul the last 100 years of China NOT being a great power is the odd period.

[Imagegear]

"what would be an appropriate counter-strategy to address the balance of power?. It seems to me that the remaining options are very limited and most include military action, so "first strike" anyone?"

Are you crazy????

A nuclear war - just what the world needs - not now, not any time..........................

As a number of posters observe countries rise, countries fall - it's the way of the world and generally the causes are far far deeper, and far longer in gestation than a few years. In the long haul the last 100 years of China NOT being a great power is the odd period.

A first strike does not have to be nuclear or global but simply a matter of removing a tentacle or two in the right places.

IG

[currawong]

The assumption is China will act rationally.

The current rhetoric coming from China runs contrary to that notion.

There is precedent for China invading Taiwan, that did not end well.

The Vietnamese fear of China is also based on precedent.

A Korean "Berlin Wall moment" would be unacceptable to China. The "uncertain" status of the North's leadership raises questions.

It could be any or all, depending on how they feel on the day.

[Bigpants]

If it is of any comfort to readers the Chinese were writing much the same stuff about the British Empire in the 19th century. Back then we got China hooked on opium and used military muscle to prevent them stopping the trade while today they have us hooked on cheap disposable consumer goods and use their financial muscle to keep it that way.

We really are in no position to:

a. complain about it.
b. do anything to stop them

[currawong]

Someone already mentioned punitive tariffs.

I think at a consumer level that might be more "organic", shall we say. Some might say "backlash".

Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China.

How that plays out strategically remains to be seen.

[Timmy Tomkins]

It does rather reinforce the view that allowing Huawei into 5G is a very bad idea indeed and always has been. Only a small thing but if the western governments don't wake up and oppose much of what China is doing we will all be the losers. This pandemic is an opportunity for China but it could also be an opportunity for the US & Europe with others to stop a lot of Chinese hegemony; will they get it? I won't be holding my breath..

[Not_a_boffin]

Boff,

Yes, but when does island hopping stop, and peninsular grabbing begin?

I fear it's on the cards (or in the tea leaves)

IG

If one controls the sea around a peninsula, why would one have to grab it? This is not about military action, it is about positioning such that military action is not required, because your potential opponent is faced with such a high cost of action, that he lives with the cost of inaction. Noting that the longer the inaction, the higher the ultimate cost of action.

[Imagegear]

Slightly red faced, I, as the OP, mentioned punitive tariffs but I had not considered it be a strategic gamechanger - do we now believe that it could bring about a significant decrease in the global influence of China?

IG

[currawong]

Slightly red faced, I, as the OP, mentioned punitive tariffs but I had not considered it be a strategic gamechanger - do we now believe that it could bring about a significant decrease in the global influence of China?

IG
Now would not be a good time, their current bluster stretches the term diplomacy.

Sensitivity to criticism has left them "in no mood".

Calls for "investigation" into this catastrophe met with threats.

Not rational by our measure, but then they are not us.

[hunterboy]

I wonder how many people that post here have been to China? I’m no apologist, but you have to see for your own eyes what they are achieving over there. It is like the wild East, but firmly controlled. My impression is that many Chinese are perfectly happy at the way they live. I appreciate that they are looking for some lebensraum, and that will take some managing. Thankfully, it is on the other side of the globe to Europe, as I wouldn’t like to have this China on my doorstep. The only way, lMHO, is economic. Stop buying and trading with China. The US could go one step further and default on its treasuries that China holds, effectively writing off its debt. I appreciate these are unbelievable, black swan scenarios, however, we are seeing an awful lot of instability caused by the equivalent of butterflies flapping wings in the Amazon. It’s certainly going to be an interesting century.

[kontrolor]

China is expanding for some time now. First economically now seeking food and other sources in every corner of the world. Africa is hit hard in this regard....
Chinese long-range fishing boats are everywhere

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-47698314/is-china-s-fishing-fleet-taking-all-of-west-africa-s-fish

[Asturias56]

"Now would not be a good time, their current bluster stretches the term diplomacy"

I see your President Xi and I raise you..


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/275x183/download_ccad49655cfc7a904d0f2a6fee9eab18dbb5d87c.jpg

[Asturias56]

"Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China."

examples please?

[Toadstool]

"Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China."

examples please?

https://www.businessleader.co.uk/japan-announces-incentives-for-companies-to-move-production-out-of-china/82975/

Japan has joined other countries around the world in creating an economic stimulus package to avoid one of the biggest financial disasters in modern times. However, part of the package included 220 billion yen (£1.6 bn) to encourage companies to shift production away from China and back to Japan. Should other nations follow the lead of the Japanese?

[Video Mixdown]

I wonder how many people that post here have been to China? I
It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it.

[unmanned_droid]

https://www.businessleader.co.uk/japan-announces-incentives-for-companies-to-move-production-out-of-china/82975/

Japan has joined other countries around the world in creating an economic stimulus package to avoid one of the biggest financial disasters in modern times. However, part of the package included 220 billion yen (£1.6 bn) to encourage companies to shift production away from China and back to Japan. Should other nations follow the lead of the Japanese?

Yes, I believe every country should have a minimum capability.

[Deltasierra010]

The problem is that China has no conscience, in the developing world they have mostly replaced the west in infrastructure, trade and development, they will buy from and sell to anyone regardless, they do not interfere with internal politics. Take a flight in Africa, walk down the street in any town to see the Chinese influence.

China is not like Russia, they are a major economic power and well able to defend its interests if needed, despite Trump sabre rattling over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the US is treading very carefully. If it came to a skirmish the US would back down very quickly, they may well have a dozen super carriers, which are usefull for bullying countries that cannot hit back, try to bully China I don’t think so, they could hit very hard.

Economically how long will it be before the Chinese economy is larger than the US, will the Yuan become the reserve currency, there is no doubt the Chinese want to be the dominant power and they will do it economically

[ex-fast-jets]

I am beginning to dream of the Cold War as being so much more a world under control - albeit under a Mutually Assured Destruction mantra.

We now seem to have a world economically destroyed by Covid 19 - which, according to the media I read, started in China. Was it a biological experiment that went wrong? Or a transfer of a virus from wild creatures to humans - I don't know.

But we currently have a US President who disliked China for business reasons before Covid 19, and a situation in the USA where Covid 19 is having some pretty dramatic domestic, political and economic effects.

I have no idea where the November presidential elections will go - but history has many examples of where domestic problems are put aside by external visions for greater adventures.

I do worry that China, exercising its military and economic power over the South China Seas area, and a US President who I now consider to be less diplomatic than some of his predecessors and who just might feel the need to "Make America Great Again" by entering into conflict with China to justify a perceived (perhaps justified) belief that China deserves some retribution for the world-wide Covid 19 disaster, could start something that we really don't want, and which neither can control.

The rhetoric from both sides over the next several months might be interesting.

Let's hope it's only interesting.

[tdracer]

There is a major movement in the US to bring the manufacture of both basic and critical items back 'on-shore'. The difficulties in obtaining basics like personal protective equipment and medicines because they'd been outsourced to China have been a big wake-up call.
Short term, expect a major decline in US imports from China when the economy reopens. The question is what happens longer term - the US often has a notoriously short memory.

[Fareastdriver]

It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it.

I worked there on and off from 1994 to 2008 and had a fantastic time. When I first arrived there it was only just starting to get into gear. Continuous roadworks and massive holes in the scenery where basic necessities like power, water and sewers where going in. In the late nineties the fareast slump happened and then the scenery was full of concrete skeletons. This didn't last long and in the 21st Century I saw a country expand at a mind boggling rate.

We are talking about a country that can build 30,000 kilometres of expressways in a decade, conurbations for 30,000 people in five years. Since Deng Xiaou Ping opened up China 1/2 billion people have become the new middle class. In the country there is still another 1/2 billion staring at a communal television and seeing all the high life in the cities and asking "when is it my turn?" That is the Chinese government's problem and after that, in fifteen years, there will be another 1/4 billion asking the same question.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT is the alter that Beijing has to kneel to. Anything that upsets that is a major disaster. It is unbelievable the they would deliberately engineer Covid 19 which would, at whatever level, upset economic activity. Especially just before Chinese New Year where half the population is miles away from their normal place of work. GNP is paramount and they are not going to upset that by going into any international adventure which might effect the flow of goods and services.

Taiwan is a thorn in the side. It reminds them that the War of Liberation is not complete. Invade it using force? Forget it. The majority of Chinese have been born to a new China and they would not tolerate Chinese killing Chinese and anybody who thinks that Beijing can ignore that feeling is dreaming.

Even though life has improved beyond recognition for a large part of Chine they still have some stupid rules and regulations thrown at them on a whim. It would help if all provinces followed the same rule book but they don't. What is perfectly acceptable in one part of China is a heinous crime in another.

China has a long History of being pushed about, certainly in the 19th and early 20th century.. It had major cities taken over by foreign countries administered and policed by them. A lot of this was self inflicted with a corrupt Imperial Court run by Queen Victoria's opposite number Tzu Hsi. Having pulled out of the chaos that was the legacy of Mao Tse Tung China is flexing its muscles and restoring what it thinks is its position in the world.

With 1/5th of the worlds population the it is entitled to.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Well if history is a guide WWW 3 will be caused by a tragic miscalculation that inflames a world experiencing profound economic and structural upheaval. I see the situation today having many scary similarities to the world in 1912 and 1934. Will the spark be a Chinese military adventure to distract from domestic economic troubles that goes terribly wrong, or something else ?

Personally I predict WW3 will start with an exchange of Nuclear missiles between Pakistan and India.......

[Lonewolf_50]

We really are in no position to:
a. complain about it. Wrong. The year is 2020, not 1865.
Pro Tip: Bismarck is also no longer Chancellor in Germany. (Well, "Reich" to be pedantic)
That you can't do anything about it is a self defeating attitude.
If you think that you are beaten, you are.
Kypling, one of your own poets.
Also: there was no UN during the Opium Wars.
The world has changed.
China is a UN member. You have every right to complain.
It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it. My brother felt the same way; he traveled therer quite a bit with his company over a decade ago. Stopped ages ago.

For Big Pistons: tough to bet against your estimate. That's one of a number of ways for this to all go pear shaped.

[dr dre]

I wonder how many people that post here have been to China? I’m no apologist, but you have to see for your own eyes what they are achieving over there.

I have. Unlike some suggest it isn’t an authoritarian gulag. China is not North Korea. Plenty of Chinese grateful for their recent explosion in wealth and the ability to travel freely overseas. People are pretty much free to go about their daily lives, but collective well being is the most important value. Harmony of society is considered more important than individual rights in Asian not just Chinese culture, and this is something a lot of Westerners (especially Americans) need to understand. You are not going to change thousands of years of culture.

It’s not just their advances in China. Look at their Belt and Road Infrastructure program to build transport and utility links all over Eurasia, Africa and the Pacific. Yes, some can argue it’s a ploy to catch third world countries in a debt trap. But they still are providing brand new critical highways, railways and ports in countries which would never be able to afford them. What is China’s biggest western competitor (US) doing? Drone strikes? Foreign bases? What do you think the average citizen of the third world will appreciate more? China is shipping a lot of medical supplies overseas at the moment, gaining good favour and influence. Where’s the boxes of supplies with the US flag stamped on them?

It is like the wild East, but firmly controlled. My impression is that many Chinese are perfectly happy at the way they live.

I wouldn’t describe the country as “wild”. More civilised than a lot of poorer Asia. Brand new infrastructure criss crossing the country to a far better standard than some first world countries. Fairly safe to walk around most of the country at night alone. Low crime rate. A lot of communities socialise openly on the streets with their neighbours in some of the less urban areas instead of locking themselves in their homes which is what western society has evolved to. A big part of this social interaction is the so called “wet” market (in reality a farmer’s market), which holds an important place in Chinese culture. If any westerner thought their calls for them to be shut down permanently were going to be taken seriously they were deluded.

[racedo]

I worked there on and off from 1994 to 2008 and had a fantastic time. When I first arrived there it was only just starting to get into gear. Continuous roadworks and massive holes in the scenery where basic necessities like power, water and sewers where going in. In the late nineties the fareast slump happened and then the scenery was full of concrete skeletons. This didn't last long and in the 21st Century I saw a country expand at a mind boggling rate.

We are talking about a country that can build 30,000 kilometres of expressways in a decade, conurbations for 30,000 people in five years. Since Deng Xiaou Ping opened up China 1/2 billion people have become the new middle class. In the country there is still another 1/2 billion staring at a communal television and seeing all the high life in the cities and asking "when is it my turn?" That is the Chinese government's problem and after that, in fifteen years, there will be another 1/4 billion asking the same question.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT is the alter that Beijing has to kneel to. Anything that upsets that is a major disaster. It is unbelievable the they would deliberately engineer Covid 19 which would, at whatever level, upset economic activity. Especially just before Chinese New Year where half the population is miles away from their normal place of work. GNP is paramount and they are not going to upset that by going into any international adventure which might effect the flow of goods and services.

Taiwan is a thorn in the side. It reminds them that the War of Liberation is not complete. Invade it using force? Forget it. The majority of Chinese have been born to a new China and they would not tolerate Chinese killing Chinese and anybody who thinks that Beijing can ignore that feeling is dreaming.

Even though life has improved beyond recognition for a large part of Chine they still have some stupid rules and regulations thrown at them on a whim. It would help if all provinces followed the same rule book but they don't. What is perfectly acceptable in one part of China is a heinous crime in another.

China has a long History of being pushed about, certainly in the 19th and early 20th century.. It had major cities taken over by foreign countries administered and policed by them. A lot of this was self inflicted with a corrupt Imperial Court run by Queen Victoria's opposite number Tzu Hsi. Having pulled out of the chaos that was the legacy of Mao Tse Tung China is flexing its muscles and restoring what it thinks is its position in the world.

With 1/5th of the worlds population the it is entitled to.

Good post

Seem some on here believe it ok to take military action against any country they like, overthrow whom ever they like, destabalise anybody they like and enslave countrys by offering their leaders mega loans which often just to buy arms with lots of kickbacks and do nothing for these nations.

China goes in builds the infrastructure and the west screams about how China is looking to rip these countries off, when asked what has the west done to help people it goes quiet.

Reading about how China doesn't care who they trade with is laughable bearing in mind the people whom the west has happily supplied and kept in power provided they do as they are told.

People citing democracy seem to want to ignore the democratic wishes of the people of Chile in the 1970's, Venezuala in this century and countless other countrys who did not do as they were told.

Freedom of navigation is laughable when you using military to blockade Venezuala, who refuse to do as they are told and accept an unelected puppet as their president and then has their embassy property siezed in Washington.

The Covid-19 crisis show how the much vaunted west has made many Millionaires but seems not to be able to provide the basics of equipment for its health care staff, their food industry is staffed in the UK (and US) by immigrants paid little more than minimum wage and people wonder why things are imploding..

Perhaps a little bit of inward persepctive would be good by some of the nations who seek perpetual warfare.

[currawong]

"Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China."

examples please?

Included the third one out of interest/ concern, does a fair job looking at some of the ramifications.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/09/business/japan-sets-aside-%C2%A5243-5-billion-help-firms-shift-production-china/#.Xqt4TqgzbIU

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/01/trump-ordered-us-firms-to-ditch-china-but-many-already-have.html

https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/03/international-manufacturing-update-china-down-mexico-up.html

[4runner]

It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it.

well put. My wife asked me what religion they are. I said they worship the God “money”. No curiosity, no sentimental thoughts and no value system or code of ethics. Mao destroyed 5000 years of civilization in less than 25 years. China has never recovered.

[dr dre]

well put. My wife asked me what religion they are. I said they worship the God “money”. No curiosity, no sentimental thoughts and no value system or code of ethics.

What a heap of bull. If you think 1.4 billion Chinese are nothing more than a bunch of brainwashed zombies who have no human feelings then the West is doomed to be replaced as the dominant civilisation sooner than I thought.

There is no greater danger than underestimating your enemy - Lao Tzu.

[Timmy Tomkins]

Thanks to Masalama & Sidevalve for two informative posts. Like others, I have travelled extensively in China but back in '94. The progress it has made since then is astonishing but it is an authroitatian state, will not play by the rules and is a serious threat to western democracy. I left there convinced they would take over the world and they are trying hard to do just that by one method or another.
All empires fall and the empire of western demcracy built up over many years of global dominance is being challenged like never before.

[Lonewolf_50]

Thanks to Masalama & Sidevalve for two informative posts. Like others, I have travelled extensively in China but back in '94. The progress it has made since then is astonishing but it is an authroitatian state, will not play by the rules and is a serious threat to western democracy. I left there convinced they would take over the world and they are trying hard to do just that by one method or another.
All empires fall and the empire of western demcracy built up over many years of global dominance is being challenged like never before. I'll offer a different look at this though I mostly agree with you.
They are not interested in conducting an experiment in democracy or self government, as we are (and as a lot of the west has done).
Perhaps that is because they look at the current results and find it not to their liking.
Who is they?
Their 1%; their ruling class.
And so, they apply a model more suited to their culture (authoritarian) and adapt what they need/want where they think it fits.

[ex-fast-jets]

I am almost frightened to enter this debate.................

But, noting the comment by 4runner........

My wife asked me what religion they are. I said they worship the God “money”.

When my wife and I were on exchange in the USA (Alabama) in the late 80's, my mother came for a visit. She was quite religious, so I looked at a very popular local Church that she could go to so that she could satisfy her religious desires. They were very welcoming initially and said that they looked forward to her joining their congregation, until it was evident that she was just a visitor for a month, and would not commit to a percentage of her income to the church. She went just one Sunday - sat alone and was not felt welcome, so she did not go back.

We were absolutely convinced that the Church was more interested in the financial contribution that she might make rather than any religious camaraderie as a congregation.

Where does religion - of whatever manner - sit in all of this?

Is Trump's God money - or a deity?

I don't know.

[racedo]

I'll offer a different look at this though I mostly agree with you.
They are not interested in conducting an experiment in democracy or self government, as we are (and as a lot of the west has done).
Perhaps that is because they look at the current results and find it not to their liking.
Who is they?
Their 1%; their ruling class.
And so, they apply a model more suited to their culture (authoritarian) and adapt what they need/want where they think it fits.

Guess they have looked at the way the really wealthy buy their influence / power and the have nots get ignored. They always tried to do it but there were checks from other side and the media but all are in the same cesspool now.

After all what is another trillion from Congress to support their supporters while thousands of people die with little or no access to medical assistance.

The American dream sadly finished a long time ago, which is a pity, it was something people aspired to but when Govt becomes more concerned about semantics rather than helping people it is what happens.

[Green Flash]

BomberH, Is Trump's God money - or a deity?, methinks Trump's God is Trump .....

[Fareastdriver]

You would be surprised how much Christianity is rooted in China. I know of at least two large active churches in Shenzhen and when I was up at Wenzhou there were half a dozen spires visible from air traffic. Most of them in Wenzhou had been taken over during the Cultural Revolution but not far down the road was a brand new church. Not a small one either, about the same size as a four storied block of flats.

There is a running spat between Beijing and the Vatican. The problem mainly revolves around people. China demands total loyalty to the State but it can accept loyalty towards gods, be they Christian, Muslim, Hindu or whatever. The problem with the Catholic Church is the Pope, and the infallibility therefore. He is a living thing, not a deity so that belief is unacceptable.

I believe that the Catholic Church in China has now reduced the importance of the Holy See to acceptable levels.

[racedo]

You would be surprised how much Christianity is rooted in China. I know of at least two large active churches in Shenzhen and when I was up at Wenzhou there were half a dozen spires visible from air traffic. Most of them in Wenzhou had been taken over during the Cultural Revolution but not far down the road was a brand new church. Not a small one either, about the same size as a four storied block of flats.

There is a running spat between Beijing and the Vatican. The problem mainly revolves around people. China demands total loyalty to the State but it can accept loyalty towards gods, be they Christian, Muslim, Hindu or whatever. The problem with the Catholic Church is the Pope, and the infallibility therefore. He is a living thing, not a deity so that belief is unacceptable.

I believe that the Catholic Church in China has now reduced the importance of the Holy See to acceptable levels.

The Pope is only infallible in matters of spiritul doctrine which really no Govt is interested in.

China like UK and many other countrys before it hates the idea that people do not buy into the state sponsored religion and this goes as far back as Henry VIII.

[Deltasierra010]

“The American dream sadly finished a long time ago, which is a pity, it was something people aspired to but when Govt becomes more concerned about semantics rather than helping people it is what happens.”

Thats rubbish.

If a black man (Obama) from a poor background can rise to be president the dream is still there.

The problem with the US is that it thinks that it’s model of democracy suits all countries which clearly it does not, the progress China has made in the last 40 yrs would not have been possible, there would have been far to many groups opposing progress. Although it is nominally communist, it is in fact a plutocracy, you might call it a “natural plutocracy”, where those that follow the party line become the ruling elite. That ensures that there are party members at every level to ensure that everybody else falls in line and those that rebel are sent to a re-education camp. There is no opposition and Xi has declared himself president for life, their model of government is very efficient the west really does need to take notice.

[Imagegear]

Wow,

I'm impressed, I got lessons in economics, history, politics, religion, military strategy and democracy from many on this thread.

So I guess the key question is: China: Do we "fight" it, or embrace it.

IG

[safetypee]

Imagegear, neither fight or embrace; we have to manage the current and future situation with the best understanding of China possible, and learn without bias.

Thus the challenge is to learn about and understand China as it is, not as portrayed or wished for by some nations, then to interact, diplomacy, economics, and culture.

[racedo]

If a black man (Obama) from a poor background can rise to be president the dream is still there.


No sure what gave you that idea.

Father was a paid for Kenyan student, which was still part of British Empire, on a Russian language course in Hawaii, remember Kenya wasn't yet indepenent but in 1960 he wanted to learn Russian and in Hawaii. Guess London was too cold.

His mum was a student when most people could not afford to go to Uni, moved from there to Seattle also at Uni and then back to Hawaii also at Uni. His step dad was a paid for post Grad student as well, who then returned to a clear well paid role in Indonesia as they lived in a wealthy suburb.

The idea that poverty was he grew up poor similar to black people around the US in 1960's is not borne out by his own version history as how many poor black families were moving from University to University and visiting Indonesia / Kenya.

[Big Pistons Forever]

No sure what gave you that idea.

Father was a paid for Kenyan student, which was still part of British Empire, on a Russian language course in Hawaii, remember Kenya wasn't yet indepenent but in 1960 he wanted to learn Russian and in Hawaii. Guess London was too cold.

His mum was a student when most people could not afford to go to Uni, moved from there to Seattle also at Uni and then back to Hawaii also at Uni. His step dad was a paid for post Grad student as well, who then returned to a clear well paid role in Indonesia as they lived in a wealthy suburb.

The idea that poverty was he grew up poor similar to black people around the US in 1960's is not borne out by his own version history as how many poor black families were moving from University to University and visiting Indonesia / Kenya.

That still doesn't make the fact that the US elected a black man to be president historically significant.

With respect to China, it would appear to me that the country can be thought of like a transoceanic flight where the plane is past PNR but a sudden huge unforcasted increase in headwind makes it doubtful they can make land. Just because they are flying fine now does not mean they are OK

A bit of an oversimplification, but I believe fundamentally accurate summary of the Chinese model. Chinese citizens accept one party rule with no political dissension allowed in return for a steady and significant increase in opportunity and wealth for almost everyone in the country. So far the government has delivered, but to do that requires a real GDP annual growth of at lest 6 %. This is an extremely high bar and will be impossible to achieve this year and likely for at least the next 2 years. The inevitable result will be a huge increase in unemployment and a significant reduction in individual wealth for many.

The Chinese government has only one tool to manage unhappy people, the ruthless use of coercive force.
Will that work with a population that increasing is well educated and media savvy ?

Traditionally dictatorships that are in trouble embark on foreign military actions to distract from domestic troubles. There are many ways for that to end very badly, not just for the Chinese people but for the entire world.....

[racedo]

A bit of an oversimplification, but I believe fundamentally accurate summary of the Chinese model. Chinese citizens accept one party rule with no political dissension allowed in return for a steady and significant increase in opportunity and wealth for almost everyone in the country. So far the government has delivered, but to do that requires a real GDP annual growth of at lest 6 %. This is an extremely high bar and will be impossible to achieve this year and likely for at least the next 2 years. The inevitable result will be a huge increase in unemployment and a significant reduction in individual wealth for many.

With 27 million people now unemployed and growth dead for a while it will be interesting to see how US fares. The model you assume applies equally well.

[etudiant]

With 27 million people now unemployed and growth dead for a while it will be interesting to see how US fares. The model you assume applies equally well.

Last time there was a similar problem it was solved by war. Not comfortable with that alternative, have you any others?

[ex-fast-jets]

In the middle of the night when I have my most deeply considered thoughts, I do worry that the good old days of the Cold War were so much more certain, even when I spent hours on exercise with my Gas Mask on and my NBC suit on.

If I want to have a sleepless night, I think of November 2020 - Trump just might not get re-elected - and we all know that he hates China. So he has some 6 months to develop a campaign against China - Covid19 and the origins of it are very obvious ammunition - plus the very ongoing aspirations of China over the South China Seas - so - without too much provocation, he exercises the undoubted capabilities of the US military to divert or concentrate opinion at home about domestic issues. It has been done before.

A cornered animal??

And then where do we all go?

North Korea, China, Iran - and potentially a USA operating without any old-fashioned diplomatic restraint or a President who can be seen to be occasionally out of control and hell-bent on personal aggrandisement.

I know - fake news has led me down this path.

Should I sleep well tonight??

[Kit Sanbumps KG]

BomberH,

I feel an enormous and very personal desire to make china suffer for what they have done. The eventual and whole consequences of this pandemic are unthinkably terrifying.

If this virus was released by chance via the wet market, then their filthy habits with animals, which they knew were gravely hazardous, are to blame. If it came unintentionally from a lab, they are responsible too, just as if a nuke launch occurred without authorisation and took out thousands, and precipitated a depression. In both of these scenarios, they are responsible by action or inaction for the present destruction of our lives. I don’t see any credible evidence that it arrived through another route, despite the conspiracy theorists’ ramblings.

Developed peoples have military resources to defend themselves and project power.

If China was not a nuclear power, I would be screaming for military intervention to teach them a lesson they would never forget, and make sure they are the last to get up off their knees. (I’m informed by my perspective on their contribution to my world: cheap crap which should have been made better at slightly higher cost; that doesn’t give them a dog in this fight).

Sadly, I fear history will record a different story.

I’ll close by appealing to everyone here to do as we have done, and have no truck whatsoever with Chinese products or business, ever again.

[racedo]

Last time there was a similar problem it was solved by war. Not comfortable with that alternative, have you any others?

I don't but the possibility of an internal conflict is I would suggest way above average in the US in next couple of years. Polarised Govt, hatred against opponents, unsustainable debt, media all over the place, likely millions of have nots and a recipe for serious unrest.

[racedo]

BomberH,

I feel an enormous and very personal desire to make china suffer for what they have done. The eventual and whole consequences of this pandemic are unthinkably terrifying.

If this virus was released by chance via the wet market, then their filthy habits with animals, which they knew were gravely hazardous, are to blame. If it came unintentionally from a lab, they are responsible too, just as if a nuke launch occurred without authorisation and took out thousands, and precipitated a depression. In both of these scenarios, they are responsible by action or inaction for the present destruction of our lives. I don’t see any credible evidence that it arrived through another route, despite the conspiracy theorists’ ramblings.

Developed peoples have military resources to defend themselves and project power.

If China was not a nuclear power, I would be screaming for military intervention to teach them a lesson they would never forget, and make sure they are the last to get up off their knees. (I’m informed by my perspective on their contribution to my world: cheap crap which should have been made better at slightly higher cost; that doesn’t give them a dog in this fight).

Sadly, I fear history will record a different story.

I’ll close by appealing to everyone here to do as we have done, and have no truck whatsoever with Chinese products or business, ever again.

Isn't that why the NHS is spending millions buy Chinese kit then.

[NutLoose]

My take on it is, it will be the reverberations that will take place when the current crisis comes to an end.
I feel China will be held partially responsible even though to be honest it could have started anywhere.

The biggest change I foresee is the World has woken up to the fact you cannot put all your core manufacturing capabilities into one country, because when the world turns to poo you cannot source those essential products.

so I can see various manufacturing being brought back into home country production and that will be to the detriment of the Chinese economy, which probably means it will contract and have a ‘knock on effect to their planned growth. In a way it shows the disadvantages of a global economy.

[m0nkfish]

BomberH,

I feel an enormous and very personal desire to make china suffer for what they have done. The eventual and whole consequences of this pandemic are unthinkably terrifying.

If this virus was released by chance via the wet market, then their filthy habits with animals, which they knew were gravely hazardous, are to blame. If it came unintentionally from a lab, they are responsible too, just as if a nuke launch occurred without authorisation and took out thousands, and precipitated a depression. In both of these scenarios, they are responsible by action or inaction for the present destruction of our lives. I don’t see any credible evidence that it arrived through another route, despite the conspiracy theorists’ ramblings.

Developed peoples have military resources to defend themselves and project power.

If China was not a nuclear power, I would be screaming for military intervention to teach them a lesson they would never forget, and make sure they are the last to get up off their knees. (I’m informed by my perspective on their contribution to my world: cheap crap which should have been made better at slightly higher cost; that doesn’t give them a dog in this fight).

Sadly, I fear history will record a different story.

I’ll close by appealing to everyone here to do as we have done, and have no truck whatsoever with Chinese products or business, ever again.


Why not let the dust settle first before deciding who is to blame and what punishment they should get? There is a lot of crap on the internet about China, wet markets, labs in Wuhan, etc. Wet Markets are not exclusive to China, they operate across the entire world. Even live animal wet markets can be found in places like the US, but of course are more prevalent around South East Asia. I've seen them in operation in Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand. This virus could have started just about anywhere, and scientists still need time to figure out exactly where COVID-19 actually first jumped from animal to human.

There are quite a few 'if' statements in your post, really you should be dealing with facts before you start making inflammatory calls to arms.

[Imagegear]

Yesterday I approached the big river company with a request to offer the option to select which manufacturing countries to eliminate from my search and presentation criteria.

I can confirm that Jeff and his underlings do not care where he sources his tat, so long has he gets to boost his personal wealth. $140 BILLON Dollars by the way. A very large proportion of which originates from flogging Chinese stuff.

I acknowledge that he is just a market trader, the real issue lies with those (including myself) who go for the one stop shop, place to go to.

IG.

[Ascend Charlie]

Has the number of Covid deaths in the US reached the annual gun deaths yet?

[A_Van]

I am not a fan of China at all and share some feelings of those who wrote they felt uncomfortable while staying in that country. I was very interested to travel there to see various "wonders of the world", but would not like to live in the world where they dominate.

However, sad irony is that it were the US (and the EU to a certain extent, too) who were "feeding the monster" for decades letting it grow on steroids by placing their manufacturing in that part of the planet.

Speaking about "punishment" (for whatever reason), it is too late now, IMHO.

Military wise, even with conventional weaps the US have no chances because the Chinese would operate from the land. And its Navy is now quite comparable with what US can deploy there.

On the economic side, if Uncle Sam decides to overpress with sanctions, the Chinese may claim back trillions of bucks that the (US) government owes them, and it will destroy most of the international trade based on dollar. And if this debt is unilaterally nullified, the Chinese might start confiscating industries that belong to the US on their territory and this may really lead to military confrontation.

With all that said it looks like all sides should calm down and avoid too aggressive actions. The West is not able to put China on the knees, but can stop feeding it further on. China will likely accelerate efforts to take third-world markets (Asia, Africa, Latin America) but would it help them get the same level of profit is a question.

[Asturias56]

" to teach them a lesson they would never forget, and make sure they are the last to get up off their knees."


Youe really are upset mate. But history teaches that revenge is a poor basis for action - how many people would you kill to feel better?

[Cool Guys]

China has no expansionist strategy from a military perspective. They are just taking back their territories as decreed by Mao Zedong in 1949. They have almost completed. Its only really Taiwan to go but this could take some time. It will be achieved without bloodshed providing outsiders such as the US don’t stir the pot. Once this is completed China will be happy regarding their territories for a couple of thousand years. I'm not saying I agree with this, just saying how it is. China is building a strong military because they don't want another occurrence of the raping and pillaging of their country that occurred in the 19th and 20th century.

From an economic perspective it would seem like China has an expansionist strategy but this is just an inevitable occurrence when you have 1.5 billion people with a high work ethic and a desire to make a bit of money. It is not China’s fault that a good portion of the US is either on drugs, obese, or struggling to make ends meet because they have been screwed big time by Wall street.

I have been to China many times. it’s a great place, very vibrant, safe, friendly & warm people, interesting history and amazing cultural sites. But I can understand why some people may feel a bit uncomfortable. It is a different culture. The US is a great place also.

I did some work for a high-tech international conglomerate in China. They made a lot of money from their Chinese business. Sure, they had to hand over a bit of technology but they just handed over some old technology and kept the latest to themselves. It was a win-win situation. I don’t buy this story that China has screwed American companies. If they got screwed it was due to their own stupidity. I agree that Huawei is an issue but there are a lot better ways of handling it than what Trump is doing. The US is afraid of China because they do not conform with US interests. There are better ways of handling this than blame, revenge and bullying.

No country is perfect and I don’t think the US is in a position to criticise. When it suits the US interests, they are quite happy to rape and pillage a country and then stand on their moral high ground as if everything ethical and just. The world under Trump makes the world a far more dangerous place than anything China has ever done.

[dr dre]

Cool guys,

I concur with your thoughts.

I think this is just the inevitable final stages of a declining power. It was always going to be inevitable that the US declined from their world power status, and I think that we are seeing an acceleration of that via Trump and their ineptitude on the pandemic response. Maybe they could’ve kept their powerful status for a few decades more but the election of the orange one put an end to that.

So my question would be:

How is it possible for the United States to prevent China from overtaking it or at least stop China from being the dominant Asian power?

IMO - they can’t do it militarily, China’s military is too large for a quick conflict, a long conflict would be unpalatable with the American public and the threat of nuclear weapons use too great.

They can’t do it economically. China (and the rest of Asia) can defeat the US on a trade war as we’ve seen over the last few years. They’ll never outperform non first world manufacturing.

They can’t do it by dominating trade routes. China’s Belt and Road Infrastructure has to be one of the greatest strategic moves in history which will see China dominate trade routes for 85% of the world population.

They can’t appeal to things like moral righteousness. Things like the Iraq War and their inability to deal with their gun problem have put rest to any moral authority they could have claimed.

They can’t do it via sanctions and restrictions. China and even Europe now are ignoring US sanctions on Iran.

Soon they won’t be able to do it monetarily. Use of the US dollar as the reserve currency is declining, the swift payment system will soon have a competitor.

So in a geopolitical sense I can’t see how the US can stop its inevitable decline. Maybe the only thing going for them is the ability to influence popular culture. But Hollywood can only inject a limited amount of pro-American-ness into their movies before it becomes ridiculous. And even they want the Chinese market, so I can’t see China being portrayed as the baddies in the next Hollywood blockbuster anytime soon.

I really think the US is out of options. And seeing how the nation is creeping further and further in massive internal divisions they can’t even provide a united front at home.

[NutLoose]

Yesterday I approached the big river company with a request to offer the option to select which manufacturing countries to eliminate from my search and presentation criteria.

I can confirm that Jeff and his underlings do not care where he sources his tat, so long has he gets to boost his personal wealth. $140 BILLON Dollars by the way. A very large proportion of which originates from flogging Chinese stuff.

I acknowledge that he is just a market trader, the real issue lies with those (including myself) who go for the one stop shop, place to go to.

IG.


Yep, even their latest TV advert showing staff isolating at work, PPE provided for working staff , and the we are still delivering attitude, was nothing to do with the fact that they were looking after their staff, it came across as we are still here maximising profit at a time of difficulty.

[currawong]

I don't see a US in decline.

I do see a China on the rise. But only really filling the vacuum formally occupied by the USSR.

Does Mr Trump hate China? I wouldn't call it that. He could have imposed travel restrictions at the same time as Vietnam or North Korea or Taiwan.

But held off till the WHO called it, I believe, to avoid a diplomatic incident.

That looks more like someone that wants to be seen to be acting correctly. That the WHO took so long to call it, that got some hate.

Others won't see it that way, nothing surer....

[racedo]

" to teach them a lesson they would never forget, and make sure they are the last to get up off their knees."


Youe really are upset mate. But history teaches that revenge is a poor basis for action - how many people would you kill to feel better?

Think he wants a billion or two.

Wonder would that include the Chinese people who live down the street from me ? The Hong Kong Chinese who I go to mass with every Sunday ? or is it a "Any chinky will do" type effort ?

Wonder can all the old British Empire countries take a similar view on the deaths from the British Empire? Lets see island of Ireland population was 8.3 Million in 1841 but even that was believed to be an undercount by 1 million, by 1851 population was 6.6 million and allowing for births with a fertility rate of circa 4.2 then population decline is really close to 4 million people in 10 years. Well 5 years really as famine was from 1846 but 1831-41 population was growing at 3% annually hence real figure is close to 5 million. Population of Island of Ireland now is 6.6 million................. still less than it was in 1821.

What about India and the other places as well ?

Likely 50,000 will die in the UK, many of those wil be because UK Govt refused to take the issue seriously, did not have the correct equipment and also complete incomptence in the way they have acted but hey it is easy to want to start a war somewhere else.

Amazing all those Brexiteers are not talking about immigrants now because the NHS and Food Industries are reliant on them 25% of NHS doctors are immigrants. In total 1 in 8 working in NHS are migrants. At Food industry basic roles it is circa 80%.

[safetypee]

An interesting reflection; see the sections on The Rise of China, and America Values.

Lee Kuan Yew Reflects -- Printout -- TIME (http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/printout/0,8816,1137705,00.html)

"I cannot judge what he did, because I did not have his information."

"You must have contention, a clash of ideas. If Galileo had not challenged the Pope, we would still believe the world is flat, right? And Christopher Columbus might never have discovered America."

"There were two groups of people in his camp. Those with convictions survived, and those who had no deep convictions died."

[MPN11]

China? Nice people who play a long game ... very long, unlike “here today, gone tomorrow” Western politicians.

You know those little reefs in the “South China Sea”? The ones that can control all the commercial sea routes in that region? The Spratly Islands were on my desk on a weekly basis in the DIS in the mid-80s. Did anyone do anything? No, of course not. Some decades later, people are getting fluffy about what China is doing building its little chain of “unsinkable aircraft carriers”.

The Russian Bear is tactical. The Chinese Dragon is strategic.

[fitliker]

​​​​​Russia's response as the disease spreads will be interesting . Initial Russian noise blamed Britain .
China Blamed the US military . Who will Russia Trust after the disease has spread to all parts of Russia . Interesting that flights out of Wuhan to Beijing were banned , but not flights to Russia ?

How long before we can fly to Wuhan ?
i wanna try that bat soup .
It must be way better than that Japanese sushi blow fish . At least if the blowfish is prepared wrong only a few people die . If you get a bad bat soup you can be patient zero in the next pandemic .

​​​

​​

[A_Van]

​​​​​ Russia's response as the disease spreads will be interesting . Initial Russian noise blamed Britain .
​​

Russia blaming who? Britain? Are you kidding? Never heard about that. Of course there might be some idiots who even blame e.g. Israel.
It's like blaming UK for remains of hurricanes that sometimes arrive here from North Atlantic.
Most of the people who brought this virus to Russia came from Italy, but nobody here blames Italy as a state.

China Blamed the US military . Who will Russia Trust after the disease has spread to all parts of Russia . Interesting that flights out of Wuhan to Beijing were banned , but not flights to Russia ? ​​

It has already spread to all parts of Russia.

​Regarding China, the land border was closed early enough and import of the virus was prevented (also because there were not many cases in Northern China).
But local idiots in Moscow were not so quick to stop flying to/from Europe (maybe because many of them or their relatives were themselves on resorts in Italy and France).

Flights to China were cargo only. Planes had 2 or 3 crews who did not leave the airplane while it was unloaded/loaded and immediately flew back.

[fitliker]

The blame Britain was reported in RT website . A dig and usual dig at the Porter Down chappies over the novichok stuff.

​​​​​​RT has become less supportive of China in tone lately , more neutral . That puts Xi in the same frame as others who have attacked Russia.

That should worry the Chinese more than what the Donald says . Stalin went neutral just before he destroyed 80 percent of the German armed forces .
They were almost friendly until they weren't.

​​​I suspect the favourite party members have already been vaccinated . We need to get some bio samples to find out why none of the elites in China have got sick and yet the Prime Minister's of Britain ,Russia and the Canadian PM wifey got sick from this . And not forgetting Chuckles . ​​​​

[racedo]

The blame Britain was reported in RT website . A dig and usual dig at the Porter Down chappies over the novichok stuff.

​​​​​​RT has become less supportive of China in tone lately , more neutral . That puts Xi in the same frame as others who have attacked Russia.

That should worry the Chinese more than what the Donald says . Stalin went neutral just before he destroyed 80 percent of the German armed forces .
They were almost friendly until they weren't.

​​​I suspect the favourite party members have already been vaccinated . We need to get some bio samples to find out why none of the elites in China have got sick and yet the Prime Minister's of Britain ,Russia and the Canadian PM wifey got sick from this . And not forgetting Chuckles .
​​​​​​​
​​​​​

RT publishes a lot of Op Eds and it makes it very clear that that is what they are. Not the view of RT but the view of the person who wrote the piece.

As for why elites did not get sick. May their security details are a bit more up to scratch.

Russia has had 130k cases and 1300 deaths, Germany has had 170k and 7000 deaths, UK has has 190k and 29k deaths.

[fitliker]

Private Eye is more credible than RT . I usually read both as entertainment . Penthouse forum readers letters had more credibility than RT . Although I would never admit to reading them or writing them :)

[FakePilot]

Believe it or not, I actually agree with all the comments here. However I find it ironic that the cudgel of "Other Western Nations" in domestic political arguments has left those "Other Western Nations" in a position of having to suck up to a new power.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Capitalism is always messy, communism always strives to look neat and perfect. In China's case that has involved increasing and heavy handed repression of its citizens to maintain that image of CCP managed perfection. They have screwed the safety valve on the boiler down hard but the heat keeps building. Personally I think China is in much more danger than the US.

The US is IMO a much more resilient society and the entrepreneurial outlook that seems to be baked in to the American psyche will find a way to make lemonade from the the COVID 19 lemons. In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks who won't give bad news to the big guy. This I would suggest is not a receipt for effectively dealing with a historic disruption to world trade and intergovernmental relations.

For China a brutal lockdown of the country to flatten the COVID curve plays to the strength of the communist system. Dealing with the domestic economic and foreign relations "so whats" that are being generated by the COVID pandemic, all of which are very resistant to simple top down generated solutions, is going to be much harder for China's leadership to deal with. Their clumsy and tone deaf propaganda campaign linking revoking support support for Taiwan as a condition for receiving medical supplies is one example of policy failure both in conception and execution, and is not an encouraging sign....

The scary part is the standard playbook for a dictatorship dealing with internal strife is a foreign adventure to distract the populace. Personally I think there is a increasing probability China will invade Taiwan in late October. The US will be distracted with the presidential elections so they will not react militarily, and China will use the invasion to rally the people

[Asturias56]

"In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks "

You need to look at the UK Government mate.................

[Asturias56]

"q"Other Western Nations" in a position of having to suck up to a new power."

i'm afraid new powers attract adherents - and that's not just country to country - look at all the folk who fawned over Harvey Weinstein or Bill gates or the Sage of Omaha, Human nature :(

[etudiant]

Capitalism is always messy, communism always strives to look neat and perfect. In China's case that has involved increasing and heavy handed repression of its citizens to maintain that image of CCP managed perfection. They have screwed the safety valve on the boiler down hard but the heat keeps building. Personally I think China is in much more danger than the US.

The US is IMO a much more resilient society and the entrepreneurial outlook that seems to be baked in to the American psyche will find a way to make lemonade from the the COVID 19 lemons. In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks who won't give bad news to the big guy. This I would suggest is not a receipt for effectively dealing with a historic disruption to world trade and intergovernmental relations.

For China a brutal lockdown of the country to flatten the COVID curve plays to the strength of the communist system. Dealing with the domestic economic and foreign relations "so whats" that are being generated by the COVID pandemic, all of which are very resistant to simple top down generated solutions, is going to be much harder for China's leadership to deal with. Their clumsy and tone deaf propaganda campaign linking revoking support support for Taiwan as a condition for receiving medical supplies is one example of policy failure both in conception and execution, and is not an encouraging sign....

The scary part is the standard playbook for a dictatorship dealing with internal strife is a foreign adventure to distract the populace. Personally I think there is a increasing probability China will invade Taiwan in late October. The US will be distracted with the presidential elections so they will not react militarily, and China will use the invasion to rally the people

Taiwan produces about 25% of the world's integrated circuits and rather more of the most sophisticated examples. I think the US would find the election a minor issue compared to losing Taiwan.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Taiwan produces about 25% of the world's integrated circuits and rather more of the most sophisticated examples. I think the US would find the election a minor issue compared to losing Taiwan.

Yes but is the US willing to spend American blood and treasure to save Taiwan especially given Trump’s aversion to international engagement ? My bet is there would be lots of bluster but when push came to shove there would be no military response, especially if China threw in some trade sweeteners for the US to look away. For Trump everything is transactional.

[Fareastdriver]

Yes but is China willing to spend Chinese blood and treasure to annexe Taiwan

Invading Taiwan might take a lot of explaining to the Chinese population. They are not foreigners, they are their own blood. The Chinese economic miracle owes a lot to Taiwan as their engineers and developers taught much of what makes China tick.
The last adventure that China went on was an invasion of Vietnam: That was an unmitigated disaster so don't knock off Taiwan yet.

[Doors To Manuel]

Cool guys,
. Maybe the only thing going for them is the ability to influence popular culture. But Hollywood can only inject a limited amount of pro-American-ness into their movies before it becomes ridiculous. And even they want the Chinese market, so I can’t see China being portrayed as the baddies in the next Hollywood blockbuster anytime soon.

Last time I wandered round shopping malls in several major cities in China the one thing that struck me about the cinemas was the almost complete absence of Western films. Just like Bollywood produces more output than Hollywood, the Chinese have their own language film industry. OK, Harry Potter and James Bond may still do it for them, but quite rightly their heroes and heroines these days are home grown.

[Asturias56]

"the Chinese have their own language film industry."

Better not tell Trump - he'll have another grievance to rant on about............

[currawong]

Last time I wandered round shopping malls in several major cities in China the one thing that struck me about the cinemas was the almost complete absence of Western films. Just like Bollywood produces more output than Hollywood, the Chinese have their own language film industry. OK, Harry Potter and James Bond may still do it for them, but quite rightly their heroes and heroines these days are home grown.

Do you think that is market forces at work?

Or state policy? Given that -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_websites_blocked_in_mainland_China

[A_Van]

Last time I wandered round shopping malls in several major cities in China the one thing that struck me about the cinemas was the almost complete absence of Western films. Just like Bollywood produces more output than Hollywood, the Chinese have their own language film industry. OK, Harry Potter and James Bond may still do it for them, but quite rightly their heroes and heroines these days are home grown.

Exactly. 3-4 years ago we traveled to the island of Hainan with my wife using Hainan airlines. I had tons of reservations about Chinese carriers but this one had a perfect dept/arr times and ideal stopover. Onboard the plane I did not see any screen (for inflight entertainment) and was proudly told that they were so advanced that gave every pax smth like Ipad (maybe Surface Pro, don't remember) that was located in the pocket of the seat in front. ОК, but when I opened it I only found movies about Mao and their revolution in 40's. Number of f...cks that I sent outloud in the air was endless. Most of the passenger were not Chinese, but Russian plus many from Europe.

[Fareastdriver]

Onboard the plane I did not see any screen (for inflight entertainment)

You're lucky. One trip I went on about twenty five years ago was in a 737 still with Spanish seat signs. When the screens pivoted down from the ceiling they were doing Karaoke. Apparently my ticket placed me as No 11 to sing but I turned it down.

Nearly got killed by blokes trying to get hold of the microphone.

[etudiant]

Yes but is the US willing to spend American blood and treasure to save Taiwan especially given Trump’s aversion to international engagement ? My bet is there would be lots of bluster but when push came to shove there would be no military response, especially if China threw in some trade sweeteners for the US to look away. For Trump everything is transactional.
Electronics are the lifeblood of modern industry and Taiwan has the most advanced and largest piece of that sector, twice the capacity of the US. Loosing Taiwan would be a game changing catastrophe for the US.
Even Trump would need to act to preserve it.

[Easy Street]

"In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks "

You need to look at the UK Government mate.................

Fair enough, there is a closed and suspicious cadre pulling the strings in the UK too. But they were put there all of 5 months ago by an electorate who knew pretty much what they were getting: it’s not like the Boris/Gove/Cummings axis has been a secret. And their freedom to act is always constrained by the prospect of the next election. So, a bit different................................................... ..................................

[pr00ne]

"In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks "

You need to look at the UK Government mate.................

I do look at the UK, mate, and I see a vastly different political system compared to the single person president for life dictatorship of China, a different political system where Cabinet Government by an elected political party is held to account by Parliament, numerous select committees that can, and do, grill the cabinet decision makers, live in public, and an inquisitive and hostile press​​​​​​ as well as a voting population who have the chance to revisit their choices every five years.

[Barksdale Boy]

prOOne

My thoughts entirely.

[Fareastdriver]

I see a vastly different political system compared to the single person president for life dictatorship of China

China has been like that for nearly all of the last three thousand years. They do not know any different.

[pr00ne]

Fareastdriver,

Very true, although mainly as regional based Warlords of one sort or another, rarely as "greater China" but your point is valid. There is one HUGE difference now though, and that is that now they DO know something different...

70 odd separatist and secession movements in China, who are as adept at blowing up train stations etc as the likes of terrorist movements a lot closer to home. Going to be hard to keep a lid on that lot for ever.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Invading Taiwan might take a lot of explaining to the Chinese population. They are not foreigners, they are their own blood. The Chinese economic miracle owes a lot to Taiwan as their engineers and developers taught much of what makes China tick.
The last adventure that China went on was an invasion of Vietnam: That was an unmitigated disaster so don't knock off Taiwan yet.

I hope you are right but things have a way of spiraling out of control in times of global uncertainty......

[Asturias56]

"held to account by Parliament", - a Parliament in which governing party has a majority and can steam roller the opposition ? When did they last hold anyone to account ? probably the expenses scandal - and that was only because of public outrage

[Imagegear]

Asti,

China has a system of government which rules by decree, consequently it acts like a super tanker steaming at 17 knots and cannot stop or change course for centuries, even when headed for the rocks.

There is a reason why the UK government has a "thumping majority", obviously the British people were not particularly interested in individual MP's conduct, despite what the media would try to foist on us. More that they preferred a government which executed the will of the people who elected them. Not going to happen in China is it.

And why do Her Majesties Loyal Opposition not get enough traction to steer the people in the direction they espouse? Perhaps the reason was that they do not receive enough support for what they are selling so they remain candidates for"Steam Rollering".

That's democracy.

IG.

[racedo]

Asti,

China has a system of government which rules by decree, consequently it acts like a super tanker steaming at 17 knots and cannot stop or change course for centuries, even when headed for the rocks.

There is a reason why the UK government has a "thumping majority", obviously the British people were not particularly interested in individual MP's conduct, despite what the media would try to foist on us. More that they preferred a government which executed the will of the people who elected them. Not going to happen in China is it.

And why do Her Majesties Loyal Opposition not get enough traction to steer the people in the direction they espouse? Perhaps the reason was that they do not receive enough support for what they are selling so they remain candidates for"Steam Rollering".

That's democracy.

IG.

Explain Iraq war then.

[Imagegear]

Explain Iraq war then.

When a world event such as the twin towers attack occurs, then the British system of Government (which does not have a written constitution) can expect all parties to support the government of the day in the best interest of the British people.

That is why when this type of situation arises, dissenters can record their dissatisfaction with all parties without fear of terminal consequences. Having had a conversation with George Bush where he committed to act in concert with the Americans, together with Germany's Schroeder and France's Jacques Chirac, and having suffered a poke in the ribs by Alistair Campbell, the die was cast. As you suggest, democracy and the oppositions position got shoved into the background in the shadow of world events. It has happened before and will happen again.

The very fact that two political parties can come together in this way, is also a form of "flexible" unformalized, democracy.

IG

[Imagegear]

Tell that to David Kelly.

UK democracy was shown to be a sham where US told them what they were doing and UK had to get the story straight to fall into line.

Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. They played no part in it, had no citizens piloting the planes, did not have their Embassies providing any support for it yet the country was destroyed where as the instigators get UK weapons.

That is true, Tony Blair did not even know what the Americans were going to do when he committed to support them 100%. As I said - the die was cast.

Without wishing to stray too far from the original purpose of the thread, no one really knows why David Kelly took the ultimate option, and yes, parallels could be drawn between the actions of totalitarian regimes and the demise of David Kelly but I do not believe that it is relevant to this thread.

Perhaps the West (Europe) is now too weak and dysfunctional, as a certain Comrade Putin spouted in his Russian TV interview yesterday, and consequently would not be able to offer a more robust response to China's strategy,

IG

[dr dre]

The scary part is the standard playbook for a dictatorship dealing with internal strife is a foreign adventure to distract the populace. Personally I think there is a increasing probability China will invade Taiwan in late October. The US will be distracted with the presidential elections so they will not react militarily, and China will use the invasion to rally the people

Not likely.

The notion is a bit laughable. The evidence is the public in China are beginning to return to life as normal, with no large signs of discontent. No where in the world is that evident with any lockdown really, even the gun toting rednecks in America protesting would be in a minority. China has bought several hundred million people out of poverty into the middle class in the last few decades, why would you think that the public at large is ready for revolution?

And China is not on the verge of invading Taiwan, the chance of that happening is about the same as this virus being engineered in a lab in Wuhan. Over 100 flights a day (normally) between the mainland and Taiwan, trade agreements signed between the two within the last decade. 400,000 Taiwanese work on the mainland, tens of thousands of mainland student on exchange in Taiwanese schools. Doesn’t sound like mortal enemies on the brink of war to me.

China’s SOP is economic and trade not military domination. There’s no point fighting a bloody war with your own kin and trade partners for no real benefit. Money usually trumps ideology.

[Fareastdriver]

dr dre: Good one. Having worked and lived in China since the mid nineties I couldn't agree more.

[Asturias56]

IQ test may have some validity within a single country - for comparisons between countries they're useless due to cultural and historic differences.. An IQ of 70, the AVERAGE for countries such as El Salvador, woudl put you in the lowest 13% in the UK. I'm willing to accept differences but not that half the good folk in Salvador are verging mentally deficient I'm afraid.

[Big Pistons Forever]

dr dre: Good one. Having worked and lived in China since the mid nineties I couldn't agree more.

It is good to get a perspective from the coal face. Good to see my scenario is unlikely

[Imagegear]

I do not think one can separate the economic and financial components of China's strategy from the territorial expansion criteria. Taiwan obviously exists in a cultural and historic framework as part of the greater China, however, the need to occupy territory with "boots on the ground" is a prerequisite for ensuring supply of critical raw materials and possibly technology. I am not yet convinced of China's peaceful intentions in this regard, it may be the "long game" but it has a certain inevitability which will need to be confronted sooner or later.

IG

[Video Mixdown]

I am not yet convinced of China's peaceful intentions in this regard, it may be the "long game" but it has a certain inevitability which will need to be confronted sooner or later.

IG
We should remember Orwell’s warning about people like Xi and Putin:
“If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.”

[GoldenGooseGuy]

As China'a economic power grows, it will claim more assets in the South China Sea because naval power has always been a prerequisite for the next world empire. The US is become less inclined to fight for such global supremacy at a cost it increasingly can't sustain.

[dr dre]

As China'a economic power grows, it will claim more assets in the South China Sea because naval power has always been a prerequisite for the next world empire.

China’s history is remarkable in the fact that unlike it’s western counterparts it really never has had much of a desire to be a world empire. I remember lots of UK, Spanish, Portugese, French and Dutch ships sailing around the world to plant their flags in new lands, not really the Chinese. Their tendency to invade and conquer other nations hasn’t been really evident since the Qin Dynasty, about 2000 years ago. Since then they’ve really only fought border conflicts with neighbouring states, not far flung expeditionary conquests launched towards the other side of the world. The plan to build the infrastructure on the Belt and Road initiative isn’t a 5 year plan, it’s a 2200 year plan in reality. Just an upgrade to the trade routes of Eurasia that have existed throughout most of recorded history.

I think they looked at overstretched empires like the Romans or the current day Americans, and easily saw the folly of attempted military control of the known world. Their goal is economic, manufacturing, monetary, innovation and trade domination, not empirical or military domination. I think what really stuffed the US up was their disastrous serious of wars in the Middle East post 2001. Not only did they kill and devastate millions, not only did they destabilise and upend an entire region with worldwide ramification, what they also did was show the Chinese government the lunacy of a national doctrine to establish security via military supremacy, which only really has gained debt, bloodshed, loss of influence and loss of respect for the US whilst not achieving any of their original goals. Whilst the Chinese GDP has almost tripled since the Iraq War 2003 they were smart enough to not make the same mistake of launching similar wars themselves as they’ve grown, which is quite telling in how their mindset works. In fact after the loss of 4000 US soldiers in Iraq who became Iraq’s largest trading partner without firing a shot? Wars of conquest are so 20th century.

Chinese memories go back a long way before 1949. It’s no surprise the topic of the Opium Wars have been mentioned In the US-China trade negotiations, probably followed by US officials scrambling for their phones to find out what the hell that was all about. China’s plan to populate and develop the Spratleys and Paracels has more to do with avoiding a repeat of 1842 than as a springboard to launch imperialistic wars of conquest of far flung foreign lands.

[Barksdale Boy]

dr dre

You say that "Chinese memories go back a long way before 1949". It's a shame that the Chinese government's memory can't seem to stretch back as far as 1989, 1966 or 1958. As to the purpose behind China's activities in the South China Sea, perhaps it might be instructive to ask the Japanese, among others, about that.

[Imagegear]

dr dre,

Somehow I can't see how China’s plan to populate and develop the Spratleys and Paracels equates with the building of fixed base aircraft carriers, logistic and supply stores with associated port facilities, without talking about personnel or facilities.

Well I suppose one could "develop" a "resort" in one corner of the "flight deck" to give an impression of propriety but it's not easy to position the deckchairs.

IG.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-would-lose-any-war-fought-in-the-pacific-with-china-7j90bjs5b

US ‘would lose any war’ fought in the Pacific with China

The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of “eye-opening” war games by the Pentagon.

American defence sources have told The Times that simulated conflicts conducted by the US (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/united-states) concluded that their forces would be overwhelmed. One war game focused on the year 2030, by which time the Chinese navy would operate new attack submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers.

The analysis also found that Beijing’s accumulation of medium-range ballistic missiles has already made every US base and any American carrier battle group operating in the Indo-Pacific Command region vulnerable to overwhelming strikes. The Pacific island of Guam, a base for American strategic bombers such as the B-2 and B-52, is now considered wholly at risk.

“China has long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic [more than five times the speed of sound] missiles,” a US defence source said, meaning that US carrier groups could not oppose their Chinese counterparts “without suffering capital losses”.

The conclusions, described as “eye-opening” by one source, are supported by the most recent analysis provided by America’s leading experts on China.......

A defence source said that repeated warnings by Admiral Philip Davidson, the regional commander, and a drive from within the Pentagon to fund hypersonic weapons to counter the Chinese threat had led to a significant switch in resources. “Mark Esper [the defence secretary] is aggressively moving to build the capabilities that we need to deter China from committing to a major confrontation,” the source said.

Hypersonic weapons are viewed as key to taking out China’s ballistic missiles capability, and the US also plans to deploy long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. Marine units are also to be armed with anti-ship missiles, along a string of islands enclosing China’s coastal seas.

President Trump announced yesterday during a White House ceremony to receive the flag of the Space Force from military leaders that the US was developing a “super-duper missile”.

“We are building incredible military equipment,” he said. “We have, I call it the super-duper missile, and I heard the other night 17 times faster than what they have right now, when you take the fastest missile we have right now. You’ve heard Russia has five times and China’s working on five or six times, we have one 17 times.”........

[pr00ne]

Look at what happened to Russia after the invasion and occupation of Crimea. Do you really think that China would risk something similar happening?

[Fareastdriver]

The last thing you do is have a punch up with your best customer.

[Imagegear]

Its not like China sees itself as a global colonial power...

.China in Greenland (https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1283033/china-news-US-china-america-arctic-greenland)

Just creeping in through the back door

IG

[Asturias56]

"a drive from within the Pentagon to fund hypersonic weapons" - another boondogle to be financed by the long suffering taxpayer in other words.

I can't see the advantage of a hypersonic weapon in a fight with China - you'd have to be sure you could hit every one of their anti-carrier batteries to risk a CVN in close to Taiwan.

[TBM-Legend]

"a drive from within the Pentagon to fund hypersonic weapons" - another boondogle to be financed by the long suffering taxpayer in other words.

I can't see the advantage of a hypersonic weapon in a fight with China - you'd have to be sure you could hit every one of their anti-carrier batteries to risk a CVN in close to Taiwan.


Heard of Virginia Class nuke subs that can locate targets and launch these weapons..

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijings-african-port-ready-for-aircraft-carriers-2kdns0xsg

Beijing’s African port ready for aircraft carriers

A huge extension to China’s naval base in Africa has given Beijing its first permanent overseas military port capable of accommodating aircraft carriers, satellite images have shown. Although China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china) calls its presence in Djibouti a logistics base, the new 330m pier indicates a grander strategy: a forward-operating facility for Beijing’s rapidly growing “blue-water” navy that can operate around the world.

US defence sources said that China seemed intent on developing strategic facilities allowing it to base parts of its navy in key parts of the world. Djibouti (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/global-power-game-over-djibouti-is-doing-little-for-its-citizens-6nwqv037c), where China opened its naval base in 2017, is strategically located at the mouth of the Red Sea on one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. On the other side of the Arabian Sea, at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman, Beijing has largely financed a huge development of a port at Gwadar in western Pakistan. US defence sources say that it also appears to be interested in building a naval facility in South America.........

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1383x1042/image_754d3e6e4d45af746350e730f862591d9e768c08.png


The satellite images of the Chinese naval base, built at a cost of nearly $600 million, were published by Forbes magazine. They show further excavation under way, suggesting that a second pier might be planned. The People’s Liberation Army Navy, which runs the base, has two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning, which is 304m long, and the 315m Shandong, each of which could have just enough space to dock in Djibouti. A third one under construction is estimated to be 400m.

A senior US defence source said: “After 9/11 we thought that China was largely defensive militarily . . . There was no blue-water navy and no long-range missiles or any basing strategy outside their region . . . all that has changed. In the 20 years since, China has a blue-water navy and an offensive missile capability, they have man-made islands in the East and South China Seas for military purposes and they have a base overseas [Djibouti] and, we believe, plans for one in Pakistan.”.......

[Fareastdriver]

A bit difficult to run secretly with this lot next door.

From Wiki: Djibouti's strategic location by the Bab-el-Mandeb (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bab-el-Mandeb) Strait, which separates the Gulf of Aden (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Aden) from the Red Sea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea) and controls the approaches to the Suez Canal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal), has made it a desirable location for foreign military bases. Camp Lemonnier (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Lemonnier) was abandoned by the French and later leased to the United States Central Command (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Central_Command) in September 2002. The lease was renewed in 2014 for another 20 years.[85] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti#cite_note-85) The French Foreign Legion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Foreign_Legion)'s 13 DBLE is still stationed in Djibouti as the largest French military presence abroad, the only one commanded by a 3-star general (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-star_rank). The country also hosts the only overseas Chinese support base (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People%27s_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti) and the only overseas Japanese military base (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Self-Defense_Force_Base_Djibouti).[86] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti#cite_note-NYT-86) The Italian National Support Military Base is also located in Djibouti.[87] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti#cite_note-87)

The hosting of foreign military bases is an important part of Djibouti's economy. The United States pays $63 million a year to rent Camp Lemonnier,[86] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti#cite_note-NYT-86) France and Japan each pay about $30 million a year,[88] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti#cite_note-88) and China pays $20 million a year.[86] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti#cite_note-NYT-86) The lease payments added up to more than 5% of Djibouti's GDP of US$2.3 billion in 2017.

[ORAC]

Nobody said secret - difficult to hide major fleet facilities. Quite aggressive as well - the US has had to protest after the base started using lasers to blind the crew if USAF aircraft landing at the adjacent a Marine base.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/04/china_laser_attack_djibouti/

[pr00ne]

So, the Chinese have established a base in a country where the French, the Americans, the Italians AND the Japanese already have bases?

Nasty sneaky expansionists!

:ugh:

[dead_pan]

The base looks quite modest to my untrained eye. Nothing like some of the sprawling US bases around the globe.

Of course, the waters around there are notoriously troubled so it makes perfect sense from a logistics perspective.

[West Coast]

"a drive from within the Pentagon to fund hypersonic weapons" - another boondogle to be financed by the long suffering taxpayer in other words.

I can't see the advantage of a hypersonic weapon in a fight with China - you'd have to be sure you could hit every one of their anti-carrier batteries to risk a CVN in close to Taiwan.


Can you provide a basic outline of your military experience/expertise please? No matter the topic, you seem to have a definitive opinion.

[Asturias56]

Same as everyone else on here Coastie. The people who really know don't/can't post

You post a lot on the US politics forum - are you a politician?

:ok:

[West Coast]

You feel the need to fill the void as those can know don’t/can’t post? Doesn’t that by definition mean you don’t know?

Safe to say you’ve not analyzed the pros and cons of hypersonic weapons using the relevant materials that would be needed to make that decision.

[dr dre]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/708x433/11ea867c_a449_4825_9032_6a920e41c479_9549693ea3535bb3f79226a 24358e8b51398f62a.jpeg


That’s a map of all US military bases in Eurasia. There should also be a flag above Okinawa, and one above Guam which isn’t in the picture. Of course this doesn’t include carrier battle groups or long range air power.

China I think has a small base in Djibouti and some smaller bases on some shallow islands in the South China Sea.

So remind me again which superpower is the “expansionist“ one?

[Imagegear]

Yes, of course,

It's not like the US bases are there for no purpose.

Some countries have demonstrated their determination to "annex", invade and subvert independent nations, their legitimate governments and their people.

Tell me which nation was under threat in the South China Sea that required the uninvited annexation of islands in the direct path of international trade routes, and then require vessels and aircraft to request permission to pass through those international waters? All the while surrounded by military assets.

Sometimes it is necessary to squeeze the puppet back into it's box. Very few countries have the capability to project that influence.

IG

[dr dre]

Yes, of course,

It's not like the US bases are there for no purpose.

And then you state that purpose:

Some countries have demonstrated their determination to "annex", invade and subvert independent nations, their legitimate governments and their people.

Good on you for stating what US military bases are actually used for!


Tell me which nation was under threat in the South China Sea

The key being in the name - South China Sea. It’s complicated but China does have a little more right to be in the area than the US.

Imagine if you a will a map like I posted of Eurasia but instead of North America. All the way across the Canadian border, the Mexican border and on Cuba and the Caribbean there were Chinese flags denoting Chinese bases. How do you think Americans would feel? Can you see how China reacts in a similar situation?



Sometimes it is necessary to squeeze the puppet back into it's box. Very few countries have the capability to project that influence.

IG

Hasnt the US Navy just admitted they can’t defeat China in a conflict scenario. That’s a long way from “squeezing them back into a box”.....

[Imagegear]

Dr dre

The South China Sea does not belong to China, any more than it does to all the other nations that border it such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan. A number of which are subject to a direct threat from bases established on disputed Islands annexed by China. That why the nations under threat are seeking protection from the USA and other nations against what is intimidation and coercion.

Your assertion regarding hypothetical Chinese bases on the borders with Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and even Cuba is ridiculous. These nations are not seeking defence assistance from other nations because of a direct military threat, and there is no potential stranglehold on trade between these nations and any other country in the world. Commercial and Military vessels of all nations are fully entitled to travel wherever they wish in International waters. Naturally they will be shadowed because some will be capable of aggression and intimidation. Even the Russians and the Chinese pass through the English Channel without let or hindrance. Some do not even announce their intentions by radio and other vessels must be redirected to stay clear of them.

Do not take for granted everything that you read regarding US capabilities in an election year. Everyone wants their piece of the pie when it is served up. You can also be assured that if the time comes to act, the USA will not act alone.

I see that your location is : The World - is that an aspiration?

IG

[A_Van]

.....
Imagine if you a will a map like I posted of Eurasia but instead of North America. All the way across the Canadian border, the Mexican border and on Cuba and the Caribbean there were Chinese flags denoting Chinese bases. How do you think Americans would feel? Can you see how China reacts in a similar situation?
.....

No need to imagine. Just look back into early 60's. The US deployed Jupiter missiles in Turkey that could reach Moscow in some 10-15 min. In return, Khruschev deployed missiles in Cuba (and Castro welcomed it because of the previous Bay of Pigs operation to "liberate" Havana). The whole world was hanging on a thin rope because of some stupids on the opposite sides of the pond.
After Mao, China demonstrated more patience in politics than the US and USSR/Russia, but who can guarantee that it is forever?

[Imagegear]

Well if you want to go back we could start with 1945 and the Yalta agreement for the Allies to stop their advance at Berlin. The Russians did not.

As for missiles 15 minutes from Moscow, I lived with the 4 minute warning for years in the 60's and 70's from a country that did not keep it's side of the deal.

China was simply waiting until they could steal the military technology of the West and reverse engineer it to the point where they can now threaten their smaller neighbours

IG.

[Jackonicko]

Dr Dre,

China is an undemocratic, tyrannical, authoritarian, repressive dictatorship which tramples roughshod over human rights, and will never embrace anyone's rights to self determination.

China persecutes its own Muslim minority Uighur population.

China has persecuted Falun Gong adherents.

China imprisons and executes political opponents.

China illegally occupies Tibet, and has practised repression and ethnic cleansing.

China hectors, bullies and threatens Taiwan.

China has shown itself to be without honour when it comes to Hong Kong.

Let's not bother arguing about what China has and hasn't done during the COVID crisis, and whether the spread of the virus beyond China was deliberate, or whether it has merely been exploited by China. Let's not waste time condemning Chinese cyber attacks against Western infrastructure.

But do let's look at your characterisation of the South China Sea.

Have you looked at a f*cking map? Have you seen how much of the area within the nine dash line is far closer to China's neighbours than it is to China itself? Have you worked out how much of it is international waters? Can you seriously characterise the PRC as anything other than aggressive and expansionist?

[West Coast]

All good points Jacko, unfortunately Dre’s fascination lies with the US.

[Imagegear]

Jacko

One might also have included as a despotic proxy, that other haven of freedom and expression - NK. Being used to lubricate China's credentials for forays further to the South.

IG

[A_Van]

Well if you want to go back we could start with 1945 and the Yalta agreement for the Allies to stop their advance at Berlin. The Russians did not.
....
IG.

Could you please elaborate more with proven facts?

Here are the facts that I studied in the course of WWII history.

1. The agreement (Protocol) concerning division of the post-war Germany (occupation zones) including Berlin was signed by the USSR, UK and US on Sept. 12, 1944. In Feb 1945 during the Yalta conference it was just confirmed (they more talked about Europe on the whole) and also France was later (March 1945) added to the "club".

2. USSR was following the agreements. Though its army lost about 80K during the battle for Berlin, the pre-agreed zones were then given to the allies.
Eisenhower did not attempt to fight for Berlin, and it was his decision. Some say that he decided to save lives of his soldiers (letting the Russians to do this hard job). Some say that he decided not to conflict with the USSR since the latter promised to declare war on Japan in 2-3 months after Germany was defeated (and it declared).

Sorry for an off-topic....

[Jackonicko]

Van,

You have a very good grasp of some of the facts, but are also ignoring key aspects of the Yalta agreement, and of Stalin's failure to honour the commitments he made to the USA and UK.

The Russian view of Yalta was that she recognised and respected the agreed spheres of influence, stuck to the agreed occupation zones in Germany and Austria and left Greece and Turkey well alone.

I believe that Stalin probably assumed that all the stuff in the Yalta agreement about establishing democracies in the former occupied nations and axis allies was irrelevant hot air and window dressing purely intended for public consumption in the USA and UK. I suspect that he genuinely believed that Russia would be left alone to run its sphere of influence exactly as it saw fit. Perhaps he was encouraged in this belief by the supine return of the Cossacks who had fought on the German side?

But the Western Powers believed that the provisions of the Yalta agreement guaranteeing free and fair elections in all liberated European and former Axis satellite countries would be honoured, and viewed it as being of paramount importance. The Allies agreed to recognise the pro-Soviet Lublin government (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Committee_of_National_Liberation) in the short-term, but only with the proviso that it should be "reorganized on a broader democratic basis with the inclusion of democratic leaders from Poland and from Poles abroad."

It should be obvious to anyone that Stalin failed to live up to his side of the bargain on this!

Having gone to war to try to save Poland from domination by one totalitarian dictatorship, it was never likely that the UK and France would happily see Poland dominated by another one.

It was Stalin's unwillingness to implement this free and democratic aspect of Yalta that led directly to the Cold War, and ultimately to the defeat and collapse of the USSR.

[pr00ne]

Jackonicko,

A nice summing up of China in post 151.

[racedo]

Having gone to war to try to save Poland from domination by one totalitarian dictatorship, it was never likely that the UK and France would happily see Poland dominated by another one.

It was Stalin's unwillingness to implement this free and democratic aspect of Yalta that led directly to the Cold War, and ultimately to the defeat and collapse of the USSR.

UK and France provided little or no direct assistance in 1939 to the Poles when they were fighting an invasion.

UK and France were provided the opportunity where Stalin indicated a willingness to provide 1 million men with tanks, aircraft and artillery to German border in summer 1939 to prevent German invasion, UK and France ignored it with the senior UK/French people indicating there would be no discussions, a week later Molotov - Von Ribbentrop pact was agreed.

The free and fair democracy concept is great until one looks at this bringing Hitler to power, allow him swallow up Austria, take over Czechsloakia (as agreed by free and democratic countries) and allow other despots to power. This almost allowed UK under Lord Halifax to offer a peace treaty with Germany who would then have sent all its military against Russia. Russia would look at UK with its Empire and see a country proclaiming Democracy while holding onto its Empire by military means. It is difficult to envisage why Stalin would trust the west.............. by 1944 Russia has seen 3 Western invasions, WW1, Russian Civil war and WW2.

Democracy is a wonderful flawed concept that man uses to achieve its own ends at the expense of others.

The other methods are even worse.

[Gnadenburg]

All good points Jacko, unfortunately Dre’s fascination lies with the US.

The choice of map by dr dre was not a useful one. US bases are far more extensive and arguably, it's the US Navy that has kept oil supply lines to Northern Asia & China, as well as critical trade routes open, allowing the rise of modern China.

[racedo]

The choice of map by dr dre was not a useful one. US bases are far more extensive and arguably, it's the US Navy that has kept oil supply lines to Northern Asia & China, as well as critical trade routes open, allowing the rise of modern China.

Remind me who was seeking to shut these ?

[Asturias56]

" I suspect that he genuinely believed that Russia would be left alone to run its sphere of influence exactly as it saw fit."

From all I've read Stalin never gave it a thought - he had the boots on the ground and that was that. What he was determined to avoid was any military clash with the west as the USSR was in dreadful shape - plus they had no A-bomb. He was quite happy to hang the Greek CP out to dry (they were, in modern terms "non-core") and allow the division of Berlin but any idea that he ever had any intention of "free and democratic" elections in E Europe is crazy. Of course Churchill realised this but Roosevelt was taken in by "uncle Joe" to some extent - besides - he had a large number of voters at home who had roots in E Europe - Churchill didn't.

[Big Pistons Forever]

As soon as Hong Kong is assimilated you have to think Taiwan is next......

[Fareastdriver]

Back in early 1997 I was chatting to a fairly important Chinese official about the impending handover of Hong Kong.

"After that it will be Macao," I said.

"Yes; and after that it will be Singapore."

"Singapore? That has never been Chinese."

"It is governed by Chinese so it belongs to China".

Fortunately he wasn't that important.

[racedo]

Back in early 1997 I was chatting to a fairly important Chinese official about the impending handover of Hong Kong.

"After that it will be Macao," I said.

"Yes; and after that it will be Singapore."

"Singapore? That has never been Chinese."

"It is governed by Chinese so it belongs to China".

Fortunately he wasn't that important.

Strange how a "foreign" officials comments are always given weight as to what Foreign Govt will do but comments from UK Govt officials are seen as just comments.

Everybody assummes that because some foreign official states something that it is defacto Govt policy and they will follow it to the letter.................. wonder if everybody though the same about the comments of a US Senator or UK Govt MP what would happen.

[ORAC]

US, UK and other democratic foreign policies are really debated in parliament, discussed on television and written up in political articles.

With Chinese policy you have to read the runes and listen carefully to what titbits they let drop.....

[racedo]

US, UK and other democratic foreign policies are really debated in parliament, discussed on television and written up in political articles.

With Chinese policy you have to read the runes and listen carefully to what titbits they let drop.....

Remind me what Foreign policy of arming and supporting Al Qaeda (and their offshoots) was debated in Parliment and Congress and what was the result of the vote ?
When was it discussed on TV and debated with people being told clearly what they were signing up to ?

[Just This Once...]

Back with your tinfoil hat again racedo. Until you ever find proof of the UK government arming and supporting Al Qaeda you should probably restrain yourself from posting such extremist, radical and alarmist nonsense on this forum. I have no doubt there are other forums on the web where you can sit in your underpants freely exchanging such stuff.

[West Coast]

Remind me what Foreign policy of arming and supporting Al Qaeda (and their offshoots) was debated in Parliment and Congress and what was the result of the vote ?
When was it discussed on TV and debated with people being told clearly what they were signing up to ?


Stay on topic. If you feel the need to discuss this, take it to the US politics thread.

[Gnadenburg]

Remind me who was seeking to shut these ?


Sorry I don't follow you.

"These" ? Okinawa?

[kiwi grey]

You guys have it all wrong.
Chinese policy is not "expansionist" it is "restorative"
For a long time the Chinese people were held back from their proper place in the world by the superior industrial and military might of the western powers and their allies, aided by the treachery of the former Chinese ruling classes.
Now that Chinese society has been reformed through the work of the People led by the Party, and China's industry is pre-eminent in all the world, the Chinese nation will be restored to its proper place in the order of things:

Chinese sovereignty and control over the seas and islands defined by the Nine Dashed Line will be restored.
The rebel province of Taipei will be restored to its proper place in the bosom of the great Chinese Peoples' Republic.
Good order and proper discipline will be restored in the misled and unruly province of Hong Kong.

Peace and harmony will prevail, led by the wisdom of the Chinese Communist Party and its visionary leader Xi Jinping.


It's just a matter of looking at things from the right point of view

[Imagegear]

Not being party to the innermost thinking of the praesidium, I must accept that your insight is legitimate knowledge..

Perhaps the time has come to rearrange some outdated points of view.

IG

[Barksdale Boy]

"Province of Taipei"? "Province of Hong Kong"? Shome mishtake, surely? (Ed)

[racedo]

Stay on topic. If you feel the need to discuss this, take it to the US politics thread.

What you mean highlighting how despotic regimes where the people at the top make all the big decisions. Nobody way way down the food chain is ever given an inkling of what is occuring........ as claimed all the time in the West.

But we should believe a lowly official who has zero input into anything, supposedly knows everything because he/she has a chat with a foreigner who claimed they said it.

Doesn't that fact that people claiming it is despotic, non democratic etc etc kinda kill the likelihood that anything would be shared other than to those with lots of real power ? or maybe my understanding of depotic regimes is different in that they share everything with everybody.

[West Coast]

What you mean highlighting how despotic regimes where the people at the top make all the big decisions. Nobody way way down the food chain is ever given an inkling of what is occuring........ as claimed all the time in the West.

But we should believe a lowly official who has zero input into anything, supposedly knows everything because he/she has a chat with a foreigner who claimed they said it.

Doesn't that fact that people claiming it is despotic, non democratic etc etc kinda kill the likelihood that anything would be shared other than to those with lots of real power ? or maybe my understanding of depotic regimes is different in that they share everything with everybody.

This is a thread focused on a particular topic. There are a number of generic threads that are more appropriate to your tangent.

[Jackonicko]

You guys have it all wrong.
Chinese policy is not "expansionist" it is "restorative"
For a long time the Chinese people were held back from their proper place in the world by the superior industrial and military might of the western powers and their allies, aided by the treachery of the former Chinese ruling classes.
Now that Chinese society has been reformed through the work of the People led by the Party, and China's industry is pre-eminent in all the world, the Chinese nation will be restored to its proper place in the order of things:

Chinese sovereignty and control over the seas and islands defined by the Nine Dashed Line will be restored.
The rebel province of Taipei will be restored to its proper place in the bosom of the great Chinese Peoples' Republic.
Good order and proper discipline will be restored in the misled and unruly province of Hong Kong.

Peace and harmony will prevail, led by the wisdom of the Chinese Communist Party and its visionary leader Xi Jinping.


It's just a matter of looking at things from the right point of view

That is exactly what they believe.

[rjtjrt]

Dr Dre,

China is an undemocratic, tyrannical, authoritarian, repressive dictatorship which tramples roughshod over human rights, and will never embrace anyone's rights to self determination.

China persecutes its own Muslim minority Uighur population.

China has persecuted Falun Gong adherents.

China imprisons and executes political opponents.

China illegally occupies Tibet, and has practised repression and ethnic cleansing.

China hectors, bullies and threatens Taiwan.

China has shown itself to be without honour when it comes to Hong Kong.

Let's not bother arguing about what China has and hasn't done during the COVID crisis, and whether the spread of the virus beyond China was deliberate, or whether it has merely been exploited by China. Let's not waste time condemning Chinese cyber attacks against Western infrastructure.

But do let's look at your characterisation of the South China Sea.

Have you looked at a f*cking map? Have you seen how much of the area within the nine dash line is far closer to China's neighbours than it is to China itself? Have you worked out how much of it is international waters? Can you seriously characterise the PRC as anything other than aggressive and expansionist?

China currently reminds me of 1930's Germany.
All we need now is a politician coming back and proclaiming "peace in our time".

[HAS59]

Not that it matters much but Neville Chamberlain didn't say 'Peace in our time' what he said was 'Peace for our time'.
Okay he didn't get as much as a full year's worth of peace, but it did buy us some time to continue rearming and getting ready for the inevitable.

As for the Chinese occupation of the South China Sea, this is a debate which, if held five or six years ago might have had some relevance.
The world has lost this battle - the island fortresses are there to stay.
Some of them are actually 'Chinese Soil' ship-loads of it were moved there.

Do we seriously imagine a conflict situation whereby 'the West' would go into combat to remove the Chinese military from these 'islands'?

If you care to look you'll find their expansionist plan set out for the coming decades.
This is just one of the steps ...

[pr00ne]

rjtjrt,

Er, give ONE example of how 21st Century China is behaving like 1930's Nazi Germany?

[downsizer]

rjtjrt,

Er, give ONE example of how 21st Century China is behaving like 1930's Nazi Germany?

Herding Xighurs into concentration camps?

[Easy Street]

rjtjrt,

Er, give ONE example of how 21st Century China is behaving like 1930's Nazi Germany?

Pervasive censorship and propaganda which ensures that citizens see, hear and read only that which the government allows them to?

[Fareastdriver]

Pervasive censorship and propaganda which ensures that citizens see, hear and read only that which the government allows them to?

A bit difficult when over 100 million Chinese go on overseas tours every year.

[rjtjrt]

rjtjrt,

Er, give ONE example of how 21st Century China is behaving like 1930's Nazi Germany?
Not interested in doing so at your request. I note you are a lawyer. You aught to be able to work it out yourself.

[Vortex Hoop]

rjtjrt,

Er, give ONE example of how 21st Century China is behaving like 1930's Nazi Germany?
trampling over the democratic rights of Hong Kongers and overtly threatening the Republic of China on Taiwan with destruction if they declare sovereignty

That enough for you yet?

[Vortex Hoop]

A bit difficult when over 100 million Chinese go on overseas tours every year.
...only the trusted middle classes and party members.

[Lonewolf_50]

trampling over the democratic rights of Hong Kongers and overtly threatening the Republic of China on Taiwan with destruction if they declare sovereignty

That enough for you yet? Is Taiwan the Sudetenland analogue here, or Hong Kong?

[ORAC]

The People’s Court (Volksgerichtshof), seems most apposite.......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Court_(Germany)

[Fareastdriver]

.only the trusted middle classes and party members.

Where on Earth did you get that rubbish from. I happen to know a lot of Chinese who have toured overseas and not one of them is a Party member. There are also about 50,000 Chinese studying at Western Universities so there is no shortage of experience of the West.

The fantastic growth in China in recent years has happened because of the lack of political choice so people can get on with improving their life instead of wasting all their energy whinging about politics.

[ORAC]

8(4) and (5) are the killers........

https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/632008-china-s-expansionist-strategy-10.html

https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/07/13/one-passport-two-systems/chinas-restrictions-foreign-travel-tibetans-and-others

[HAS59]

This makes quite interesting reading on this topic.

"China's National Defense in the New Era"
it can be found at "The State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China". the first edition is dated July 2019.
I downloaded my copy as a 51 page 'Word Document'

It sets out what China sees as 'its property' and it does challenge the US and others.
It seem to be their 'Official Party Line' on the topic.

[Jackonicko]

84 4 and 5, ORAC?

[ORAC]

Sorry Jacko, Article 8 parts 4 and 5 here.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cgny/eng/lsqz/laws/t42218.htm

[Jackonicko]

Is there a link for that, HAS59

[ORAC]

Easy to find Jacko

Full Text: China's National Defense in the New Era - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-07/24/c_138253389.htm)

[Easy Street]

A bit difficult when over 100 million Chinese go on overseas tours every year.

Germans were allowed to travel overseas during the 1930s so my example stands. But please do go ahead and explain the ‘Great Firewall’ and the Hong Kong bookseller disappearances (to name just the two most obvious examples).

[Lonewolf_50]

"China's National Defense in the New Era"
it can be found at "The State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China". the first edition is dated July 2019.
I downloaded my copy as a 51 page 'Word Document'

It sets out what China sees as 'its property' and it does challenge the US and others.
It seem to be their 'Official Party Line' on the topic.
Might this be their version of "The Monroe Doctrine" vis a vis regional affairs?
I'll take a read this weekend and get back to you. Thanks for the link.

[Asturias56]

Whatever way you look at it no-one is going to go to war with China over some islands in the S China Sea - and that includes the locals.

Try explaining "Freedom of the Seas" to your average voter in Dallas, Birmingham or Frankfurt.

I can only see it happening if due to idiocy or accident someone sinks a CVN or a CV

[Vortex Hoop]

Where on Earth did you get that rubbish from. I happen to know a lot of Chinese who have toured overseas and not one of them is a Party member. There are also about 50,000 Chinese studying at Western Universities so there is no shortage of experience of the West.

The fantastic growth in China in recent years has happened because of the lack of political choice so people can get on with improving their life instead of wasting all their energy whinging about politics.

do you really think they would get an exit visa if they were Uighurs or dissidents? And that growth doesn’t look so good when they choke us out with rampant emissions and overpopulation.

[ORAC]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6927913/China-Naval-Modernization-Implications-for-U-S.pdf

China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress

Updated May 21, 2020

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.eu/article/pompeo-china-has-taken-hong-kongs-autonomy-away/

Pompeo: China has taken Hong Kong’s autonomy away

WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo formally certified to Congress on Wednesday that the Trump administration no longer views Hong Kong as an autonomous region of China, a move that effectively terminates the city's special status under U.S. law that has helped it flourish as destination for trade and investment.......

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-02/what-u-s-congress-is-and-isn-t-doing-about-hong-kong-quicktake

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-must-prepare-for-war-says-xi-hm8t8bjw3

US halts trade deal with Hong Kong in protest at China

..... On Sunday Robert O’Brien, the president’s national security adviser, said that if Mr Pompeo could no longer certify Hong Kong’s autonomy then “there will be sanctions that will be imposed on Hong Kong and China”.

The end of special trading status would mean that goods from Hong Kong would become subject to the same tariffs now applied by the US to ones from mainland China. Economic and visa restrictions on China would also be expanded to the territory, dealing a significant blow to Hong Kong’s role as a multinational business hub......

It came hours after President Xi said that China must be ready for war as relations between Beijing and Washington hit a new low.....

In surprisingly forthright remarks carried by the official Xinhua news agency, Mr Xi said China must get ready for war. “We must explore ways to train and to prepare for war when pandemic control efforts are getting normalised,” he said. “We must hasten to step up preparations for armed warfare, carry out real-combat military training with flexibility, and to comprehensively enhance our army’s abilities to perform military missions.”

He said the pandemic had made a profound impact on the global order, as well as China’s security and development. Although Mr Xi refrained from identifying the enemy, his defence minister was less circumspect.

Wei Fenghe, who is also a general in the army, said: “The United States has intensified the suppression and containment of our side since the outbreak, and the Sino-US strategic confrontation has entered a period of high risk. We must strengthen our fighting spirit, be daring to fight and be good at fighting, and use fighting to promote stability.”

Beijing is set to increase its defence budget by 6.6 per cent to reach $178 billion this year, far outpacing economic growth, which is estimated to be 1.5 per cent over the course of the year......

[West Coast]

https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/xi-jinping-tells-chinese-military-to-prepare-for-war-is-it-against-india-us-or-taiwan-1682384-2020-05-27?fbclid=IwAR1xSv5kKPwwZ_irCZHGA9lgj0omAnSthBV4ZxmlKoM7QDax dx9dNHLKciU

Rather cryptic messaging from Xi directed at no one in particular but intended for a number of parties I’m sure.

[Finningley Boy]

If I may be allowed a wee conspiracy theory, and one which has done the rounds a few times, and I have no proof but I could be easily convinced of the accusation that Covid 19 is a laboratory engineered virus and it wasn't released accidentally. The virus is far too efficient, we have scant information about how it is being handled in China. It is wide spread across Western nations, scarcely registered in the African Continent where China has many interests. In fact, Covid 19 doesn't appear to have made any kind of impact anywhere around the equator?

President Trump says some outrageous and unfathomable things which is manor from Heaven to his political enemies, of which he has several Garden sheds full. However, within the madness are the odd, albeit cockamamie sounding accusation/claim, but when you stop and think about the direction of his statements there is the makings of a rational, perhaps lateral thinking uttering, but none too popular at all.

FB

[Imagegear]

I prefer to think a little more conventionally, it would not be beyond the bounds of reason to conclude that China is constructing a series of diversionary tactics (South China Sea, India/China Border tensions, Australia, Coronavirus, etc.) to mask it's real strategic intentions.

The more I think about it, this is very likely to result in concluding the outstanding annexure of Taiwan.

IG

[ORAC]

No, you may not be allowed a conspiracy theory.

Too much of a straw man which can be raised then demolished in order to exculpate the CCP’s other actions.

[ProudIndian]

In the meanwhile, there is something serious brewing between Indian and China. China it seems has moved 3-4 km inside Indian territory. I read a great article on this subject ’India China: Eyeball-to-Eyeball’, on WordPress(insightful.co.in). You guys may check it out.

[Asturias56]

"The virus is far too efficient,"

Actually it isn't - it currently has only infected 270,000 people in the Uk in over 4 months - 4% of the population - and its only killed 1 in 1700 of the population - and 90% of them are over 60 and already sick. One reason biological weapons are more widely used is exactly this issue - they are unpredictable and slow. The real damage to the world is the lock down - but that is voluntary and could be reversed immediately if a "hot" war broke out

[Finningley Boy]

"The virus is far too efficient,"

Actually it isn't - it currently has only infected 270,000 people in the Uk in over 4 months - 4% of the population - and its only killed 1 in 1700 of the population - and 90% of them are over 60 and already sick. One reason biological weapons are more widely used is exactly this issue - they are unpredictable and slow. The real damage to the world is the lock down - but that is voluntary and could be reversed immediately if a "hot" war broke out
Ok it isn't efficient, but the reaction is highly jittery. The statistics, as you've explained show it isn't making the kind of inroads that the overall reaction justifies. But there is certainly paranoia about this virus, if we've got Bookshops wanting to disinfect books which have been picked up, browsed then put back. If not disinfect, they want to trolly them away for several days quarantine.

The reaction across the Globe may vary somewhat, but this kind of behaviour seems irrational, I say that because such standards of safeguarding largely can not and will not be maintained. Ponderous action like that we're seeing in bookshops isn't going to make any difference. As usual, however serious this situation it is, we've lost sight, not just the government, but the press and opposition voices are too combative for all political reasons. The government can't lead as opposed political groups are getting their digs in to try and counter the government advice.

FB

[etudiant]

I prefer to think a little more conventionally, it would not be beyond the bounds of reason to conclude that China is constructing a series of diversionary tactics (South China Sea, India/China Border tensions, Australia, Coronavirus, etc.) to mask it's real strategic intentions.

The more I think about it, this is very likely to result in concluding the outstanding annexure of Taiwan.

IG
Seems a bit less than subtle, to rattle your various neighborhood fences before launching a major fight.
Perhaps an easier explanation is that China has serious economic issues and blaming 'foreign devils' for the troubles they are causing is a good way to get public acceptance of the problem.

[Imagegear]

As the Disney song said: "Keep 'em guessing"

IG

[ORAC]

https://youtu.be/10oHg_NRKSI

[Asturias56]

Seems a bit less than subtle, to rattle your various neighborhood fences before launching a major fight.
Perhaps an easier explanation is that China has serious economic issues and blaming 'foreign devils' for the troubles they are causing is a good way to get public acceptance of the problem.


That I think is probably closer to the truth.

[ORAC]

And a popular war is even better?