Losing recency

[C152Heavy]

Wondering if the ones losing recency will be fired first....

[Aero Vodochody]

More likely to be the ones with a join date of April 2020!

[Oasis]

Wondering if the ones losing recency will be fired first....

no, seniority.

[cabbages]

Bases first?

[LLLQNH]

Bases first?

Unlikely because they can simply return to Hong Kong it's global seniority! Makes more sense to offer early retirements and incentives to more senior people to take redundancy before working the way from bottom to top on forced layoffs, but non the less it has to be bottom to top!

[cabbages]

I am as clueless as everyone else out there about this. There is a clause in the PBPA, 15.1, where it outlines crew can elect to return to HK other than in 'abnormal circumstances'. Could the company close a base and use this clause to prevent crew returning to HK?

[MENELAUS]

I am as clueless as everyone else out there about this. There is a clause in the PBPA, 15.1, where it outlines crew can elect to return to HK other than in 'abnormal circumstances'. Could the company close a base and use this clause to prevent crew returning to HK?

Yes. Yes. And...yes.

[LLLQNH]

I am as clueless as everyone else out there about this. There is a clause in the PBPA, 15.1, where it outlines crew can elect to return to HK other than in 'abnormal circumstances'. Could the company close a base and use this clause to prevent crew returning to HK?

15.1 refers to a Voluntary return to Hong Kong base closure/reduction in crewing levels on home base falls under section 13.

13.1 clearly lays out what would happen in the event of a base closure/reduction in overall crewing levels and it doesn't include such language, so the based crew would return to Hong Kong if they wanted too.

The big concern here is actually what would happen in Hong Kong if they needed to reduce the workforce as the employment ordinance might allow Hong Kong based pilots to be made redundant out of Seniority given the circumstances, very concerning!

[cabbages]

Let's hope we get some clarity after the meeting with the AOA on the 29th.

[MENELAUS]

15.1 refers to a Voluntary return to Hong Kong base closure/reduction in crewing levels on home base falls under section 13.

13.1 clearly lays out what would happen in the event of a base closure/reduction in overall crewing levels and it doesn't include such language, so the based crew would return to Hong Kong if they wanted too.

The big concern here is actually what would happen in Hong Kong if they needed to reduce the workforce as the employment ordinance might allow Hong Kong based pilots to be made redundant out of Seniority given the circumstances, very concerning!

HTF did you get to any of that. ? Please supply the supporting reference. Last in, first out. At least in HK. And they ain’t going to waste any money repatriating anybody on a base back to HK. To elevated salary, or benefits.
You rather pre suppose that any of this is anything other than moot. No money left, lights go out. Make your own way home. And the obligation to repatriate guys ( condition of employment visa. Not a condition of HK permanent ID ) is again moot if there’s no money left.

[LLLQNH]

HTF did you get to any of that. ? Please supply the supporting reference. Last in, first out. At least in HK. And they ain’t going to waste any money repatriating anybody on a base back to HK. To elevated salary, or benefits.
You rather pre suppose that any of this is anything other than moot. No money left, lights go out. Make your own way home. And the obligation to repatriate guys ( condition of employment visa. Not a condition of HK permanent ID ) is again moot if there’s no money left.

The question was raised if bases would be the first to be laid off, and it was pointed out that they wouldn't as based pilots through the Basing agreement and their individual COS will be returned to Hong Kong in the event of a base closure or reduction on a base! The reference is the basing agreement and the COs all inline with Global seniority.

yes you are correct it is last in first out in Hong Kong and on all of the bases as it is a common seniority list globally! However the concern as several have pointed out is that the HK employment ordinance might allow out of seniority layoffs due to the situation, further more as the AOa have questioned it seems to be a bit of a concern that the Cos18 pilots aren't on the common redundancy list or something like that! If your an AOa member log in and have a look there they sent a letter to the DFO questioning this.

Anyhow its all a bit silly as you suggest, the way it has to be done and the way it has always been done around the world is last in first out regardless of base etc, after all this is the main advantage of seniority and a reward for staying with an employer even if better jobs are available!

[MENELAUS]

Where does it say the HK EO allows for out of seniority lay offs. ? It makes no such pronouncements. In fact it doesn’t even discuss seniority. Our C of S does. And again if they have reached the situation that they are impoverished enough to consider lay offs you can kiss goodbye to individuals returning from their bases to HK, so called global seniority or not. And our C of S are worthless then anyway.
And what recourse would these based individuals then have. ? If things are that dire they are hardly unlikely to be able to sue a non existent organization. Take a look at what can be done with an allegedly superior EBA (Oz vs HK as an example). Hasn’t done them too many favours there, has it ?

[Fly747]

Cargo is currently the company’s lifeline. Do you really think that they are going to lay off junior 747 pilots and then pay to retrain others to fill those slots? I don’t, never mind the time involved. They will do whatever they need to in order to survive and it isn’t going to be pretty.
Our current lifestyle is over and no-one knows what the near future looks like, let alone 5-10 years down the line.

[cxorcist]

If your name is in the bottom 1/4 to 1/3, maybe even 2/5, I would have an exit plan.

If you’re on a base and unwilling to return to HK, I would have an exit plan.

If the Swires sell out to the ChiComs, we all need to be ready for mayhem, beyond the normal fuel hedging debacles, 49er episodes, 13th month shaftings, policy changes, punitive rostering, etc...

[MENELAUS]

747 captains are hardly junior these days...in the main. You downsize the Company, force draft guys to the jumbo if nec....they’d probably get enough volunteers anyway. And backdraft the guys that recently went to the bus. Very senior, all of them. If they don’t like it, well the door is always open. Someone has stolen it.
Lower ranks... s/o’s are easily trained. 777 conversion to a -8 fairly straightforward.
As you say all bets are off.

[cxorcist]

Cargo is currently the company’s lifeline. Do you really think that they are going to lay off junior 747 pilots and then pay to retrain others to fill those slots? I don’t, never mind the time involved. They will do whatever they need to in order to survive and it isn’t going to be pretty.
Our current lifestyle is over and no-one knows what the near future looks like, let alone 5-10 years down the line.
It’s a very short and quick course from the 777 to the 747. CX is already training pilots on the 747, might as well be guys and gals who are going to be around in 6 months.

[MENELAUS]

It’s a very short and quick course from the 777 to the 747. CX is already training pilots on the 747, might as well be guys and gals who are going to be around in 6 months.

Yes. You have to train them how to fly again. Apart from that the -8 is a more advanced machine than the 777. So conversion is a fairly short matter.

[SanMig]

Canadian base agreed to a 20% cut to basic salary for no flying in May and June. Add that to total loss of credit for those months and it’s a 30% pay cut overall. That’s 100 pilots who will run out of recency and it will take months to get them all recurrent as long as we have enough trainers to do it! They might be back on the line in September just in time for the second wave of Covid19 to hit. Bases are dead!

[LLLQNH]

Where does it say the HK EO allows for out of seniority lay offs. ? It makes no such pronouncements. In fact it doesn’t even discuss seniority. Our C of S does. And again if they have reached the situation that they are impoverished enough to consider lay offs you can kiss goodbye to individuals returning from their bases to HK, so called global seniority or not. And our C of S are worthless then anyway.
And what recourse would these based individuals then have. ? If things are that dire they are hardly unlikely to be able to sue a non existent organization. Take a look at what can be done with an allegedly superior EBA (Oz vs HK as an example). Hasn’t done them too many favours there, has it ?

Have a look on the Labour Department website you'll be able to find it in about 2 mins, of course it doesn't mention Seniority and airline specific items it's about employment contracts in Hong Kong and how companies can break them or amend them in certain situations.

https://www.labour.gov.hk/eng/faq/cap57k_whole.htm#q4

here you go even done the hard work for you! Question 4

[cxorcist]

Canadian base agreed to a 20% cut to basic salary for no flying in May and June. Add that to total loss of credit for those months and it’s a 30% pay cut overall. That’s 100 pilots who will run out of recency and it will take months to get them all recurrent as long as we have enough trainers to do it! They might be back on the line in September just in time for the second wave of Covid19 to hit. Bases are dead!
Bases might be dead, but it has NOTHING to do with recency. Almost seems like wishful thinking from SanMig, as if s/he will benefit somehow. More probable... YVR and YYZ bases close and some of those pilots come to HK while SanMig gets made redundant.

Also, 70% pay for zero work seems like a pretty good deal to me. Where do I sign up?

[cxorcist]

Have a look on the Labour Department website you'll be able to find it in about 2 mins, of course it doesn't mention Seniority and airline specific items it's about employment contracts in Hong Kong and how companies can break them or amend them in certain situations.

https://www.labour.gov.hk/eng/faq/cap57k_whole.htm#q4

here you go even done the hard work for you! Question 4
If you think that little snippet changes out of seniority redundancy, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Why are so many junior pilots eager to trample on the careers of their seniors?

[MENELAUS]

Have a look on the Labour Department website you'll be able to find it in about 2 mins, of course it doesn't mention Seniority and airline specific items it's about employment contracts in Hong Kong and how companies can break them or amend them in certain situations.

https://www.labour.gov.hk/eng/faq/cap57k_whole.htm#q4

here you go even done the hard work for you! Question 4

Thank you. Yes. I don’t know how long you’ve been here, if you are indeed employed by CX, however this doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t know already.
Forgive me; if I were a scalphunter or a bean counter ( I’m not ) the last thing I’d be doing is recovering guys to HK from a base, reinstate or indeed commence expat benefits, only to lay them off 3 months later. I know airlines are honours’ graduates in pissing away cash, however, this will not fly in any scenario. So, simplistic views aside, we have no leverage, no real protections and they’ll do wtf they want. And there’s not a whole lot we can do about it. Just pray it ain’t your turn in the barrel. And buy a bigger crash helmet.
All that said they have, so far, not gone for the nuclear option. And I’m as surprised as the next man. Such is the dichotomy that is CX.

[mngmt mole]

Globo, good assessment btw. I suggest that the nuclear option is coming. They are simply tinkering with the fuses at the moment...! Sadly, the arrangements on the bases are almost certainly going to be either extended, or more likely, closed altogether. The economics no longer favour the bases, and the company certainly isn't going to continue with the arrangement as it currently exists. As for HK, have been told that this week or next will reveal the bigger picture. It is hard to imagine that CX will not use this crisis to clear away several of the aspects of our contracts that they have been targeting for decades. Certainly what i've been told suggests big changes to come. The initial reaction to Covid is what has plunged us all into crisis, but the bigger problem is the domino effect on the world economy, and then the "fear factor" that has now been ingrained into peoples psyche, something that will prevent a return to "normal" for a very long time. This is not like prior crises. This is an epochal reset in human history.

[Slasher1]

Globo, good assessment btw. I suggest that the nuclear option is coming. They are simply tinkering with the fuses at the moment...! Sadly, the arrangements on the bases are almost certainly going to be either extended, or more likely, closed altogether. The economics no longer favour the bases, and the company certainly isn't going to continue with the arrangement as it currently exists. As for HK, have been told that this week or next will reveal the bigger picture. It is hard to imagine that CX will not use this crisis to clear away several of the aspects of our contracts that they have been targeting for decades. Certainly what i've been told suggests big changes to come. The initial reaction to Covid is what has plunged us all into crisis, but the bigger problem is the domino effect on the world economy, and then the "fear factor" that has now been ingrained into peoples psyche, something that will prevent a return to "normal" for a very long time. This is not like prior crises. This is an epochal reset in human history.

It does not help that many nations' plans have been feckless. Destroying the economic engine that supports everything else. Including medical care.

It's like a doctor saying "Hey--I've got a cure for the flu. We just shoot the patient !"

[cxorcist]

It does not help that many nations' plans have been feckless. Destroying the economic engine that supports everything else. Including medical care.

It's like a doctor saying "Hey--I've got a cure for the flu. We just shoot the patient !"
Oh, you must be one of those tinfoil hat conservatives who thinks we should not listen to medical doctors as experts in all things... social science, economics, public policy, etc. If the epidemiologists say keep the world shut, we must blindly follow because we are science based, moral people of goodness. You capitalists don’t care about human lives, only the mighty dollar to line your slimy pockets of greed. Nevermind that poverty from this global depression will kill millions and create misery for many more. We saved people from the dreaded Chinese Origin VIrus Disease - 19. Soon, we will go back to our fundraisers and cocktail parties and congratulate ourselves for how virtuous and righteous we are. Off to the next misguided cause in which we can save a select few at the expense of the rest of the world.

[LongTimeInCX]

To the people who say bases are dead, whilst this is possible, it is unlikely.
Those of you employed by CX are able to view the seniority list to see the position on the list of based pilots.
It is not hard to work out, that the crew on a base are generally more senior, and were they to be based in HK, would cost the company significantly more, courtesy of various allowances such as: housing, travel, education etc.
CX are clearly trying to preserve cash.
They clearly know that crew on the bases are saving them plenty of money.
In the short term, having had the based pilots lead the pay cuts by example, I think they will then approach the hk pilots first, then cabin crew, and finally the ground staff.
My thoughts are it will be a mix of asking guys to retire (with possible decent $ incentives), more voluntary unpaid leave, and if insufficient pilots take it up, then standby for a one size fits all common COS20 with some grandfathering (time limited) for housing and HKPA reduced, or a simple 20% pay cut for those barely working, be prepared to be asked to accept a greater cut. Note the % cut the directors took. Unlikely to be greater - unless you were unlucky and were based in Aus!
With the pilots out of the way, and as many will see COS20 as a bridge too far and leave, numbers for a leaner crew compliment will fit the start up plan. Then the Cabin Crew will also be easy to reduce in numbers as they scramble over each other to keep a job by signing up for whatever cost saving deal is offered.
That just leaves the hardest of all - the groundstaff - but, having seen the worldwide based pilots, followed by hk pilots, then cabin crew suffer cuts, they'll know they have to toe the line and accept.

Should all be tied up and signed off in 4-6 weeks, just as a very slow recovery starts.
A new lean lower cost base cx will be well placed to make monstrous profits in 9-12 months time as aviation starts a slow steady resurgence.

[MENELAUS]

Well longtime. If that is the scenario it’s one of the more optimistic ones I’ve seen yet !!

[LongTimeInCX]

If one looks at the command courses alone that are still planned for this year,?that alone indicates to me they are unlikely to be cutting huge numbers of crew. I won't deny they would like cheaper crew, and in simplistic terms, a new captain is cheaper than a 17+yr Captain on the top scale. I'm sure creative ways have been looked at, in how to circumvent the LIFO aspect in our COS. Time will tell, and the next 4-6?weeks will be interesting to say the least.
Good luck boys and girls and those inbetween - whatever you call yourselves these days.

[MENELAUS]

If one looks at the command courses alone that are still planned for this year,?that alone indicates to me they are unlikely to be cutting huge numbers of crew. I won't deny they would like cheaper crew, and in simplistic terms, a new captain is cheaper than a 17+yr Captain on the top scale. I'm sure creative ways have been looked at, in how to circumvent the LIFO aspect in our COS. Time will tell, and the next 4-6?weeks will be interesting to say the least.
Good luck boys and girls and those inbetween - whatever you call yourselves these days.

Grazie. Although I’ve not been called a boy in a long time.

[Farman Biplane]

The dilemma for CX is that if they massively reduce their pilot numbers, they have NO option of rapid expansion in the future.
A laid off pilot in USEUROAUSNZ etc will get a barista/truck driver job in situ and will jump at the opportunity to return to the pilot ranks as it is an easy transition.
The expat (although on local terms) pilot in CX has to relocate back to home country, set up a new life for family etc, and then become barista/driver.
When/if CX want them back it is not a simple transition back to HK. If they keep the bases open, that might make it easier, but then there is the flood of whoever remained in HK onto the bases before new hires. Catch 44!!
There is no incentive for an expat pilot to stay in HK if they are let go, thereby there is no pilot base in HK to rapidly re-hire. Yes there will be many out of work pilots in the world chomping at the bit to work for CX for minimal wage, but the recruiting/screening/visa/intl move/licensing/training issue Will create significant lag and the opportunity may indeed be lost again....
Lots of negativity in this thread, what ever happened to “sitting on your hands”?

[mngmt mole]

Farman, I believe you are looking at this back to front. Firstly, the bases aren't economical (I won't go into the minutia of why, but you can be certain that for a whole host of reasons, they are not, and i've had that explained to me at the highest level). As for the command courses, not too hard to understand why: CX is planning on a large exit of quite senior people. To be replaced by more junior ranks on much lower pay and conditions. You can be certain that the deal we enjoy in HK now is about to come to an end (there will be a fairly short notice period (24 months) for those on ARAPA, and everyone can expect COS18 (or worse) beyond that. As for worrying about the cost of "attracting people back to HK when things pick up". CX will have thousands of desperate people willing to show up in HK the very next day to take a job. They will hardly worry about the grounded ex-CX pilots how may demure. I take no pleasure in stating these scenarios, but it is best if people plan based on reality. "Hope" is not a strategy. "Sitting on your hands" is probably the very best suggestion overall. Btw, I sincerely pray I am dead wrong on every single thing discussed here.

[OK4Wire]

mm, normally I read your posts with at least some degree of interest, but today you lost me as soon as you said: "...I've had that explained to me at the highest level."

I know a handful of pilots who are always running up to the 3rd or 9th floor to get the latest goss. You are obviously one of them, so good on you. The bit you don't understand is that the highest level enjoys feeding you with info to take back to the masses.

[mngmt mole]

I'll ignore the rather impertinent swipe. I've laid out what I know, in as much clarity as I am able without compromising the confidences entrusted to me from "friends". You can take my comments as you wish. I have very little love for anything to do with our current management, and I certainly don't need to be ashamed of what i've done over the years to support the profession. We'll see if my cautions prove correct or not. Ad hominem attacks are rather unbecoming...

[MENELAUS]

I'll ignore the rather impertinent swipe. I've laid out what I know, in as much clarity as I am able without compromising the confidences entrusted to me from "friends". You can take my comments as you wish. I have very little love for anything to do with our current management, and I certainly don't need to be ashamed of what i've done over the years to support the profession. We'll see if my cautions prove correct or not. Ad hominem attacks are rather unbecoming...

I think that your choice of “handle” rather invites ad hominem attacks. Sadly. Perhaps change it to “Gerald” ?

[OK4Wire]

Ignore my impertinent swipe if you wish, but then don't mention it in your last sentence!

I agree that ad hominem attacks are unbecoming; questioning someone's source isn't.

[Brown Nose]

I think the scraping of ARAP with grandfathering for a period is possible as it is policy, but how can one be forced onto COS18 without individual agreement?

[mngmt mole]

I think suggesting I "run up to the 3rd or 9th floor" is certainly an ad hominem attack. That isn't "questioning the source", it's impeaching the source. Ergo, an ad hominem attack. But you know that. Why not focus on the main point of my comments. There are plans to attack our pay and conditions. They may or may not come to pass. My conclusion is that there is no escaping the reality of our situation, and the company will not miss the opportunity to radically change the dynamics of their cost structure. It's a "rumour" network, hence....rumours. If you disagree with my comments, fine. Try not to make it personal though, ok OK.

[mngmt mole]

BrownNose. In 1999, the company simply gave us 7 days to either accept our new reduced contract, or resign (be fired effectively). As a point of debate, what is stopping them from doing so again. Certainly, under HK labour law, they have wide latitude in their action under "force majeure" conditions, and I certainly think they would be on safe ground claiming that at the moment.

[Oasis]

BrownNose. In 1999, the company simply gave us 7 days to either accept our new reduced contract, or resign (be fired effectively). As a point of debate, what is stopping them from doing so again. Certainly, under HK labour law, they have wide latitude in their action under "force majeure" conditions, and I certainly think they would be on safe ground claiming that at the moment.


did they fire the ones that didn’t sign?

[mngmt mole]

If you didn't return a signed contract to the company, your employment was terminated. You had the choice to voluntarily resign, with a payout based on a formula. One or two of my friends chose that option. You could not just ignore the package and not submit a choice. No choice meant no job after 7 days.

[MENELAUS]

Well now we have United’s input we can take that, discount it by around 150%, and then invite him to shove it up his chocolate starfish.
Education is now a local benefit as well so doubt that will be arbitrarily scrapped. Reduced perhaps; it is subject to an element of co pay as it stands anyway.
Admittedly I don’t think it will be pretty.
Salary and PF require our agreement. Whether they go down the ‘99 road and sign or be fired remains to be seen.
ARAPA. Yes suspect that will be revised downwards with individuals expected to pay more towards their accomm or mortgages. It’s been in their sights for ages and was a great gig whilst it lasted.

[AllWobbly]

Well now we have United’s input we can take that, discount it by around 150%, and then invite him to shove it up his chocolate starfish.
Education is now a local benefit as well so doubt that will be arbitrarily scrapped. Reduced perhaps; it is subject to an element of co pay as it stands anyway.
Admittedly I don’t think it will be pretty.
Salary and PF require our agreement. Whether they go down the ‘99 road and sign or be fired remains to be seen.
ARAPA. Yes suspect that will be revised downwards with individuals expected to pay more towards their accomm or mortgages. It’s been in their sights
for ages and was a great gig whilst it lasted.



”Letters in the mailbox by the end of March”

[main_dog]

For heaven’s sake everyone, just stop fear-mongering already and don’t do management’s job for them!

We shall see what we shall see, meanwhile stay calm and stay safe.

[okm]

For heaven’s sake everyone, just stop fear-mongering already and don’t do management’s job for them!

We shall see what we shall see, meanwhile stay calm and stay safe.
best post so far.

[Dilbert68]

For heaven’s sake everyone, just stop fear-mongering already and don’t do management’s job for them!

We shall see what we shall see, meanwhile stay calm and stay safe.

Spot on. None of you have a clue what is coming so why post your theories here? Deal with whatever comes but no need to give management ideas.

[Apple Tree Yard]

And you seriously think that management haven't thought of every single scenario posted here, and a few others besides...? Ok. Good luck with that.

[Flex88]

I think that your choice of “handle” rather invites ad hominem attacks. Sadly. Perhaps change it to “Gerald” ?

Not many will get that ;)

[Flex88]

Spot on. None of you have a clue what is coming so why post your theories here? Deal with whatever comes but no need to give management ideas.

1. It's a "Rumour" network !!
2. I think your go home and "Deal with whatever comes" strategy is one of the most pathetic I've ever heard.. Anyone who relies on that strategy should never be in a position of responsibility, professionally or personally !!

[MENELAUS]

Not many will get that ;)


i thought they’d be reading more ? Lockdown etc ?

[Dilbert68]

1. It's a "Rumour" network !!
2. I think your go home and "Deal with whatever comes" strategy is one of the most pathetic I've ever heard.. Anyone who relies on that strategy should never be in a position of responsibility, professionally or personally !!

WTF are you going to do about it anyway Flex? You going to fight back? Yeah right, another spineless keyboard warrior.

No point in bleating on about it here you tw@t. When the attack comes, you either decide to stay or leave, simple.