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BNEA320
24th Apr 2020, 03:04
If V2 doesn't happen for some reason & Alliance were to pick up VARA F100s (think VARA have 14) that would give them a huge Fokker fleet.

As far as aware, any Fokkers on FIFO contracts don't fly hard, so a certain % of F100s & F70s could be flown much harder & do any domestic routes now flown by VA jets, except East Coast to Perth & back, but think some F70s could do that.

SYD curfew going temporarily would mean they could fly into & out SYD maybe 0500-2359 with no risk of fines.

hotnhigh
24th Apr 2020, 03:12
320. Great idea. No curfew in Sydney, awesome. You might want to give Paul stoddart a call.

ebt
24th Apr 2020, 03:13
That supposes that QQ actually want to touch RPT, which I can imagine they wouldn't want to do unless somebody was handling the distribution or underwriting it. Their biggest opportunity would be to pick up the VARA business (or even just the contracts) and focus on those. Those Fokkers won't hold up well doing regular runs up and down the coast with multiple sectors, short turns etc. Plus, there is the small issue of Qantas holding the largest stake in QQ at the moment - subject to the ACCC investigation.

BNEA320
24th Apr 2020, 03:16
320. Great idea. No curfew in Sydney, awesome. You might want to give Paul stoddart a call.if v2 doesn't happen, there will have to be a lot of back of clock flying. Remember around xmas 2001, there were lots of flights out of BNE & MEL very late.

All it takes is a decision by govt. saying it's an emergency to keep airfares low.

Bloody SYD curfew means no airlines (with possible exception fo QF) wants to schedule a flight arriving in SYD later than 2100 as aircraft might get stuck in SYD.

QF have aircraft parked at SYD overnight, that could probably be brought in at short notice, if inbound aircraft looked like arriving too late to meet current curfew & couldn't get out by 2300.

wishiwasupthere
24th Apr 2020, 03:33
Is it school holidays?

morno
24th Apr 2020, 03:45
Is it school holidays?

Well they’re all still at home and they all have computers at the moment, close enough.

BNEA320
24th Apr 2020, 03:57
without V2, alliance & any other australian or NZ charter airline, along with air nz could fill some of the gap, before even letting in foreign carriers, like during pilots dispute. (obviously NZ is foreign but a special case as has traffic rights in OZ already)

Remember Yugoslavia airline JAT (DC10s I think), Air Méditerranée (737), RAAF & other carriers flying domestically filling void.

What did RAAF carry pax in ?

missy
24th Apr 2020, 05:37
Bloody SYD curfew means no airlines (with possible exception fo QF) wants to schedule a flight arriving in SYD later than 2100 as aircraft might get stuck in SYD.

TT had 4 airframes overnight at SYD, JQ about 8-10, VA anywhere between 10 &15, whilst it's true that a disruption causes QF fewer issues it's still likely to cause issues.

Removal or even relaxation of the curfew, yeah, good luck with that one!

Toruk Macto
24th Apr 2020, 05:43
What did RAAF carry pax in ?

HS748’s

Remember being instructed to not leave until I’d seen all the engines started as with the work those engines ( darts from memory ) where doing they where overtemping on startup a lot . We picked up many passengers after they offloaded .

BNEA320
24th Apr 2020, 06:18
TT had 4 airframes overnight at SYD, JQ about 8-10, VA anywhere between 10 &15, whilst it's true that a disruption causes QF fewer issues it's still likely to cause issues.

Removal or even relaxation of the curfew, yeah, good luck with that one!if they don't get rid of SYD curfew in short term, then without V2, less capacity in & out of SYD & higher fares on average.

Maybe they could just get rid of fines but have no scheduled flights landing or departing after 2259.

It's crazy that if a pax fakes a heart attack at 2301, an aircraft near SYD can land without fine. Pax then has a sudden recovery & refuses medical help.

BNEA320
24th Apr 2020, 06:22
That supposes that QQ actually want to touch RPT, which I can imagine they wouldn't want to do unless somebody was handling the distribution or underwriting it. Their biggest opportunity would be to pick up the VARA business (or even just the contracts) and focus on those. Those Fokkers won't hold up well doing regular runs up and down the coast with multiple sectors, short turns etc. Plus, there is the small issue of Qantas holding the largest stake in QQ at the moment - subject to the ACCC investigation.Who said anything about RPT ? QQ could just do unlimited charters.

If they let JAT, Air Med in during pilots dispute, any OZ carrier would surely be allowed unlimited charter flights. Not up to CASA, up to transport minister, who would have tourism operators screaming at him for flights & therefore employment.

Of course QQ would need back up aircraft, but dont' they have 30 ish F70/F100s ? Add 14 of VARAs & you have nearly 50. Assuming 15-20 could be freed up, that's a decent fleet.

mmmbop
24th Apr 2020, 06:30
if they don't get rid of SYD curfew in short term, then without V2, less capacity in & out of SYD & higher fares on average.



So the airline that Qantas owns 20% of, takes up the slack left by V2, and it is going to mean that these higher fares don't occur? :hmm:

smiling monkey
24th Apr 2020, 06:56
Not up to CASA, up to transport minister, who would have tourism operators screaming at him for flights & therefore employment.



Ever heard of this thing called an AOC?

morno
24th Apr 2020, 08:43
Ever heard of this thing called an AOC?

Monkey, BNE320 is simply a travel agent or aviation enthusiast, one of those, who has very little idea about the real world and comes up with all these stupid ideas that would not work. So no, he probably doesn’t understand what an AOC is.

TBM-Legend
24th Apr 2020, 09:21
if they don't get rid of SYD curfew in short term, then without V2, less capacity in & out of SYD & higher fares on average.

Maybe they could just get rid of fines but have no scheduled flights landing or departing after 2259.

It's crazy that if a pax fakes a heart attack at 2301, an aircraft near SYD can land without fine. Pax then has a sudden recovery & refuses medical help.

Thee should be higher fares to cover costs. Virgin has just proved that you can't sell $10 tickets for $9 and stay in business. As for Alliance as an option that is not on Scotty's radar...

exfocx
24th Apr 2020, 10:09
ebt ! :*

Do some homework first; what a turkey you are ...
The Fokker 70, 100, F28, has been the backbone of Air Niugini for 40 years now in one variation or another.
Robust, reliable, can take enourmus punishment and they even fly very short sectors of of 15 to 30 minutes.
Take a look at the time expired airframes at Port Moresby on the rubbish dump. No modern aircraft can match a Fokker.

And as an added bonus PX ignored the volcanic ash warnings of recent times and there is plenty of video on the internet of the Fokker's landing in the ash at Hoskins and Tokua. I did not see anu of the "Roller" engines being changed!

Maybe you shouldn't live in the past. The reason Alliance have so many F100s is because they are tired and break down, The oldest RJ in Australia is younger than the youngest F100, and that's saying something. They're great for FIFO as they aren't worked hard and obviously cheap, but aren't up to the tempo of RPT.

Saintly
24th Apr 2020, 13:27
Could F50s return to WA with Alliance as well?

Australopithecus
24th Apr 2020, 20:59
Sigh. I sometimes wonder if the original poster is regaling us with snippets of his fever dreams.

Here's a gem that I had last night: Some bloke on gumtree was selling a low hour 737-800, mostly in QF colours, but it also had some army camouflage and one wingtip had Tiger stripes. Make of that what you will.

BalusKaptan
24th Apr 2020, 21:06
Australopithecus, love to see a photo of that!

tail wheel
24th Apr 2020, 21:47
Someone forget

Alliance is 19% owned by Qantas.
I doubt F70 and F100 seat/mile costs are lower than a modern B737 or Airbus seat/mile costs.
They would need a lot more than an extra 14 x F100's to even scratch the trunk route markets.

Airlines don't usually run a major domestic scheduled air service with aircraft over 24 years old, built by a company that went bankrupt and ceased operating 24 years ago.

Australopithecus
24th Apr 2020, 22:09
Well no, especially when you consider how cheap more modern airframes are and will be for the next couple of years. Although I do like the idea of staying up all night for a chance to fly on a geriatric jet to SYD.

Speaking of aircraft values...there’s going to be some balance sheet adjustments soon for everyone once the true market value of parked jets becomes known. I expect the values of 717s and F-100s to be pretty much zero.

B772
25th Apr 2020, 00:24
Australopithecus: There are airlines and leasing companies that are currently defaulting on new aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Boeing. With aircraft being repossessed the used aircraft market is starting to become awash with cheap aircraft. Values could decline by up to 40% before the world economy is back on track. This presents opportunities for new airlines to start up. A replacement for Virgin Australia will be a good example. They will not have many dollars at risk.
Ps. Boeing has 3 x B717's for sale or lease at present 125Y built 2004.

Australopithecus
25th Apr 2020, 00:55
There was a time when there was demand for 717s from both Qantas and Delta, but can you see any real demand for them in the future? As you wrote, values are currently down and falling. The Americans are about to see how stupidity and fecklessness in a time of crisis can strip value from everything.

BNEA320
25th Apr 2020, 13:21
Ever heard of this thing called an AOC?wtf ? Think Alliance might have an AOC.Expert reveals the Qld airline which could replace ‘tainted’ Virgin AustraliaConcerns the collapse of the “tainted” Virgin Australia would create an airline monopoly in Australian skies has been dismissed by an industry expert, who points out Queensland has another airline ready and able to fill its void.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/business/expert-reveals-the-qld-airline-which-could-replace-tainted-virgin-australia/news-story/3afc03cd98c18bd40838f25da188ee72

smiling monkey
25th Apr 2020, 14:21
wtf ? Think Alliance might have an AOC.

No sh!t Einstein. It’s CASA who regulates operations based on an operator’s AOC and not the Minister for Transport as you were alluding to.

RENURPP
25th Apr 2020, 22:47
Australopithecus: There are airlines and leasing companies that are currently defaulting on new aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Boeing. With aircraft being repossessed the used aircraft market is starting to become awash with cheap aircraft. Values could decline by up to 40% before the world economy is back on track. This presents opportunities for new airlines to start up. A replacement for Virgin Australia will be a good example. They will not have many dollars at risk.
Ps. Boeing has 3 x B717's for sale or lease at present 125Y built 2004.

Delta own “about” 20 x 717s and lease another “around” 70.
they are attempting to get out of lease costs therefore maybe sending back a large number if not all the 70 leased 717s.
whilst they were in demand pre-covid, that may change, or the bargain basement lease costs may see some operator see them as a good alternative.

pax numbers are going to be down for a considerable time post covid, 125 seats may end up more suitable/economical.

BNEA320
26th Apr 2020, 00:42
No sh!t Einstein. It’s CASA who regulates operations based on an operator’s AOC and not the Minister for Transport as you were alluding to.& who tells casa what to do ? Transport minister ? PM ?

ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE
26th Apr 2020, 00:55
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.couriermail.com.au/business/expert-reveals-the-qld-airline-which-could-replace-tainted-virgin-australia/news-story/3afc03cd98c18bd40838f25da188ee72

REGIONAL Queensland charter group Alliance Airlines is among the best-placed to fill Virgin’s void if it fails to emerge from voluntary administration, a leading aviation industry expert believes.

neville_nobody
26th Apr 2020, 01:17
Do some homework first; what a turkey you are ...
The Fokker 70, 100, F28, has been the backbone of Air Niugini for 40 years now in one variation or another.
Robust, reliable, can take enourmus punishment and they even fly very short sectors of of 15 to 30 minutes.
Take a look at the time expired airframes at Port Moresby on the rubbish dump. No modern aircraft can match a Fokker.

So why are the Australian operators having so many engine failures/depressurisations/Fume event/hydraulic failures etc etc?

BNEA320
26th Apr 2020, 01:24
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.couriermail.com.au/business/expert-reveals-the-qld-airline-which-could-replace-tainted-virgin-australia/news-story/3afc03cd98c18bd40838f25da188ee72

REGIONAL Queensland charter group Alliance Airlines is among the best-placed to fill Virgin’s void if it fails to emerge from voluntary administration, a leading aviation industry expert believes.
Handsford an expert ? Self appointed ?

smiling monkey
26th Apr 2020, 02:35
& who tells casa what to do ? Transport minister ? PM ?

You obviously have NFI how the industry works.

aussieflyboy
26th Apr 2020, 02:52
Rumour is Cobham have been advised of 2 more 717s inbound early next year - Fokker replacements?

Chris2303
26th Apr 2020, 03:08
Rumour is Cobham have been advised of 2 more 717s inbound early next year - Fokker replacements?

Are they ex Delta?

Going Nowhere
26th Apr 2020, 04:11
Rumour is Cobham have been advised of 2 more 717s inbound early next year - Fokker replacements?

With the entire East Coast fleet and crew stood down and no indication of a full schedule anytime soon, I doubt it.

B772
26th Apr 2020, 05:06
Australopithecus (https://www.pprune.org/members/423601-australopithecus): I see limited demand for the B717 going forward. In my opinion the life of the aircraft will terminate after the second gear change life expires. This will occur for the latter builds in 2026 which is the date Qantas has previously nominated. I suspect the latter builds will still be flying until this date as they are a 'cheap' low cost efficient aircraft over short to medium routes. Whether it extends this far remains to be seen. The scrap value in the aircraft will be the engines.
Ps. I would not be surprised to see Alliance show interest in the B717. The seat km cost can not be matched in the under 150 seat category.

VH DSJ
26th Apr 2020, 05:21
Ps. I would not be surprised to see Alliance show interest in the B717. The seat km cost can not be matched in the under 150 seat category.

It would match closely to the seat km cost for the Ejet E195, would it not, with plenty of availability for spares in the long term?

aussieflyboy
26th Apr 2020, 05:54
Network to eventually become A320 only ops and Cobham/whatever entity to operate the soonish to be (from early next year onwards) the larger B717 fleet. Virus may adjust timelines but the west will always need that 100+ seat aircraft.

Lapon
26th Apr 2020, 06:27
Network and Alliance to go B717 in addition to Cobham if/when Delta exit thiers :ok:

Des Dimona
26th Apr 2020, 09:19
I think Alliance, who are financially pretty savvy, would have to think twice about introducing another aircraft type. Their spares holding on the Fockers is very extensive and they own most of it.

neville_nobody
26th Apr 2020, 13:31
Alliance can't flog the F100 forever and now is probably a good time to be buying a replacement type as there will be alot of distressed sales out there. What can you replace it with will be the question.

B772
26th Apr 2020, 13:55
VH DSJ (https://www.pprune.org/members/31182-vh-dsj): Yes I agree the E195 costs would be a close match. I have some concerns about the viability of the loss making Embraer in the present financial climate. If Boeing do not proceed with control of Embraer (I believe Boeing will walk) who have a lot at stake and debt with the second generation series they may become an orphan. Ps. I believe the E195 E2 is a great aircraft and kills the A320/B737-800 over anything less than 100 minutes.

rattman
26th Apr 2020, 20:04
VH DSJ (https://www.pprune.org/members/31182-vh-dsj): Yes I agree the E195 costs would be a close match. I have some concerns about the viability of the loss making Embraer in the present financial climate. If Boeing do not proceed with control of Embraer (I believe Boeing will walk) who have a lot at stake and debt with the second generation series they may become an orphan. Ps. I believe the E195 E2 is a great aircraft and kills the A320/B737-800 over anything less than 100 minutes.


They already have walked it was announced during the weekend.

mrs nomer
26th Apr 2020, 22:14
What can you replace it with will be the question.

That's the question - another F100?

The F100 hull purchase prices were so low, they became immensely attractive. They could (with spares support) be around for some time. My understanding is that the engines are the limiting factors.

IAW
26th Apr 2020, 22:17
Network and Alliance to go B717 in addition to Cobham if/when Delta exit thiers :ok:

Hey, pass the crackpipe over this way would ya?

​​​​

BNEA320
26th Apr 2020, 22:18
That's the question - another F100?

The F100 hull purchase prices were so low, they became immensely attractive. They could (with spares support) be around for some time. My understanding is that the engines are the limiting factors.
qq must be thinking about those 14 vara f100s for fifo etc.

mrs nomer
26th Apr 2020, 22:34
qq must be thinking about those 14 vara f100s for fifo etc

That's probably the most true statement in all of these posts

Rabbitwear
26th Apr 2020, 23:38
What about Network, perfectly placed in Perth ready to take the mining contracts in larger Aircraft ,A320 orders on tap , containerised loading .
sure it’s QF group but it’s better than a. Chinese operator !

Going Nowhere
26th Apr 2020, 23:56
What about Network, perfectly placed in Perth ready to take the mining contracts in larger Aircraft ,A320 orders on tap , containerised loading .
sure it’s QF group but it’s better than a. Chinese operator !

larger aircraft might be in order if the mines Hang onto the social distancing limits for a while.

cheap A320’s that can move 120 pax each way would be the best bet.

Anyone who thinks the 717 is expanding or even staying at its current levels is dreaming.

F100’s are dirt cheap and the Alliance examples would have to be close to the best looked after in the world. They also have the world’s largest pool of spares.

They aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Alliance is very good at what they do and that is run the things on the smell of an oily rag at a reliability that a 717 or Network could only dream about!

Icarus2001
27th Apr 2020, 01:24
larger Aircraft ,A320 orders on tap , containerised loading . Neither of which would be popular at the mine site airports.

ebt
28th Apr 2020, 02:51
ebt ! :*

Do some homework first; what a turkey you are ...
The Fokker 70, 100, F28, has been the backbone of Air Niugini for 40 years now in one variation or another.
Robust, reliable, can take enourmus punishment and they even fly very short sectors of of 15 to 30 minutes.
Take a look at the time expired airframes at Port Moresby on the rubbish dump. No modern aircraft can match a Fokker.

And as an added bonus PX ignored the volcanic ash warnings of recent times and there is plenty of video on the internet of the Fokker's landing in the ash at Hoskins and Tokua. I did not see anu of the "Roller" engines being changed!

Gobble, gobble!

Fokkers are great aircraft, no doubt, but they were never designed to do 12-14 hours of utilisation per day flying up and down the east coast, with the occasional back-of-the-clock transcon in as well. Look back 10 years ago and there was a reason that QQ would go and buy another couple of frames whenever they got a new contract that would add 1-2 flights per week. The values of the type meant it was cheap for them to do, and at some point when an E190 or another similar jet gets there, they will start replacing them.

TT738
1st May 2020, 23:26
aren't most of Alliance fleet parked Friday to Sunday, except for a few that were doing VA RPT ops ?

That's a lot of aircraft that could be doing busy Friday & Sunday pm ops.

Australopithecus
2nd May 2020, 00:03
aren't most of Alliance fleet parked Friday to Sunday, except for a few that were doing VA RPT ops ?

That's a lot of aircraft that could be doing busy Friday & Sunday pm ops.

You can’t get far running a weekend only airline. And the F100 is ill-suited for any holiday charter destinations.

morno
2nd May 2020, 00:30
Ohh look he’s talking to himself again. Did the conversation die in the ass TT738?

TT738
2nd May 2020, 00:44
You can’t get far running a weekend only airline. And the F100 is ill-suited for any holiday charter destinations.
no but a smaller VA will have to do more with less & the regional routes will suffer. Alliance have already done quite a few of VAs thin routes.

Fokker 70/100s could be used Fri & Sun pm, not with 30 min turns, but maybe til late.

VFR traffic will fly late. Tourists both domestic & international want to fly to places like CNS.

Less supply means higher fares which tourism industry doesn't need. They need as much supply as possible.

If I remember correctly during pilots dispute, Keith Williams chartered Lloyd aviations F28 so HTI wasn't left with no flights. Not sure how many flights the F28 did a week into HTI.

TT738
2nd May 2020, 23:10
QQ must be looking at a number of expansion opportunities right now.

On a slightly separate topic, air travel in USA doesn't seem to have any restrictions
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/flying-across-the-us-during-a-pandemic-was-a-breeze-20200502-p54p6g.html

surely this would mean, that our domestic air travel can get back to some sort of normal very quickly, which is probably why VA administrators, want to get it sorted ASAP, otherwise QF will grab market share. If VA not sorted fast, surely that leaves the gate open for QQ & other airlines to start filling the void.

Does QQ have any aircraft parked, that could be brought back online very quickly ?

lc_461
3rd May 2020, 00:59
TT738 you continue to advocate this line but why would Alliance even want to move in to large scale RPT, and the associated risks and complexities? They are consistently profitable with little debt and are seeing increased demand in their existing business due to social distancing. If VA falls over then they will almost certainly pick up more contracts in their chosen niche. Changing from charter to RPT is a totally different ball game... just because a market opening exists doesn't mean that it's a responsible business decision to fill it.
Also lets not forget QF owns 19.9%....

mates rates
3rd May 2020, 01:36
Fokker jets were built for one hour sectors around Europe,20 mts climb,20 mts cruise 20 mts descent.They were not designed for long sectors,so the FIFO contracts would include that inefficiency in their pricing plus the old generation RR Speys are very thirsty by modern standards.

Des Dimona
3rd May 2020, 08:15
The Fokkers don't have Speys - they are RR Tays

mates rates
3rd May 2020, 11:27
Sorry RR - Tay’s.The F28 had Spey’s.

TT738
4th May 2020, 00:37
TT738 you continue to advocate this line but why would Alliance even want to move in to large scale RPT, and the associated risks and complexities? They are consistently profitable with little debt and are seeing increased demand in their existing business due to social distancing. If VA falls over then they will almost certainly pick up more contracts in their chosen niche. Changing from charter to RPT is a totally different ball game... just because a market opening exists doesn't mean that it's a responsible business decision to fill it.
Also lets not forget QF owns 19.9%....
or maybe QQ will do more thin routes for "new VA". Will be plenty of routes or routes at certain times/days that can't justify even a very cheaply leased B738 & besides new VA will almost certainly have less aircraft than VA had.

Don't think QQ lost much out of old VA. They must have bene paid very regularly.

Saw NRL used QQ F70 for charter NZ to Tamworth yesterday. Didn't think they had rafts etc. for extended overwater ops. Apparently they couldn't do a charter with F100 BNE/AKL/BNE with full load unless stopped at Norfolk for fuel.

rammel
4th May 2020, 02:48
QQ have a 52 seat F70. I've done BNE-ZQN-BNE in it. Norfolk Island was planned for the return, but on the day we were able to operate ZQN-BNE direct.