Tough times ahead

[TBM-Legend]

Overseas news summary from a UK colleague:

​​​​​​Latest news

-Virgin Atlantic fires more than 3000 people including 600 PNT
-Finnair returns 12 planes and lays off 2,400 people
-You makes 22 planes and fires 4,100 people
- Ryanair grounds 113 planes and gets rid of 900 PNT contractors for the moment, 450 more in the coming months
- Norwegian completely stops its long-haul activity !!! The 787 are returned to the lessors
- SAS deletes 14 planes and licenses 520 PNTThe Scandinavian states are studying a plan to liquidate Norwegian and SAS to rebuild a new company from their ashes- Ethiad cancels 18 orders for A350, groundes10 A380 and 10 Boeing 787, so far 720 redundancies
- Emirate grounds 38 A380, cancels all orders for Boeing 777x (150 aircraft, the largest order for this type). They "invite" all employees over 56 to retire
- Wizzair returns 32 A320s and lays off 1,200 people, including 200 PNTs, another wave plans 430 layoffs in the coming months. Remaining employees will see their wages reduced by 30%
- IAG: abandons the takeover of Air Europa (and will pay 40 million compensation for that), they are considering the closure of Level France. Iberia: 56 ground planes, British Airways 34 ground planes. Everyone over 58 at IAG should be retired
- Luxair reduces its fleet by 50% (and associated redundancies)
- CSA abolishes its long-haul sector and keeps only 5 medium-haul aircraft
- Eurowings in bankruptcy
- Brussels Airline reduces its fleet by 50% (and associated redundancies)
- Luftansa plans to ground 72 aircraft (in two installments)
- Hop is studying the possibility of reducing fleet and staff by 50%

Additional info:
Currently 60 new aircraft stored at Airbus with no buyer in sight (order cancellations) including 18 A350s
In September, they predict a minimum of 8,000 ground planes. With an average of 5.8 crews per plane (medium and long haul combined), that makes more than 90,000 unemployed pilots worldwide. I'll let you do the calculations for the cabin crew.

[das Uber Soldat]

You must be fun at parties.

[A320LGW]

This message has been sent around on whatsapp. I received it too. Apart from the English being questionable to say the least, I don't think it's all entirely true.

And what does PNT mean?

[air bubble]

WhatsApp is not the most reliable source. I'd like to see some proof of these data.

[vlieger]

Not very accurate indeed, some of the airlines mentioned have the wrong figures, though the gist of it remains correct of course.

[Cirrus1203]

A32OLGW, I don't know if it's relevant, but PNT in french is the "technical" crew (i.e. pilots). According to a pilot's union in France those numbers are fake, and they warned their personnel to not share this text.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

Yes yes we know.....the industry is stuffed.....add this to the long list of similar articles relating to the economy, the housing market, the unemployment rate etc etc.

Don't really see the point in continuing to post stuff like this. Everybody knows what is going on.

[dragon man]

I’m not going to comment on each individual item above however here’s a link to do with Virgin Atlantic, if correct it will be more than 3000 staff. The numbers in the USA post September when the airlines can get rid of staff following the ending of their baleout undertakings are reported at 100,000. It is horrendous and I doubt any airline will be spared from this. Good luck to all and sundry.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/virgin-atlantic-s-co-owner-raises-specter-of-administration

[Sunfish]

I want to go on record that I think the economy is going to bounce back quicker than expected, assuming we can come up with an effective treatment. The difference between this and earlier recessions is that we know the cause. The service industry has been hit hard and fast, but it is also capable of bouncing back very fast. Restaurants and cafes can start up with food and a few phone calls - fast. Unlike manufacturers who have to be slow. Airlines are somewhere in the middle.

[73qanda]

I agree with Sunfish.
Oil is cheap. Money is cheap. The losses came quick and fast. The cause is obvious. Those things combined make me optimistic that confidence will rebound and bring the economy with it.

[Potsie Weber]

I’m predicting a strong domestic travel market by Christmas. Whilst international borders remain effectively closed, there would have to be significant pent up domestic travel demand by then. More Australian tourist travel was taken overseas than foreign visitors to Australia before this all happened. A huge chunk of those are still going to want to travel somewhere within Australia, for a short break or family visits. The caravan and camping industry is expecting massive boom times ahead once restrictions are eased.

I don’t think it will be about hundreds of thousands flocking to the Gold Coast, but more like heading off to different places, hiring a car for a few days and exploring towns and areas.

[TBM-Legend]

You must be fun at parties.
At least there are girls at the parties I go to...

[Gnadenburg]

I agree with Sunfish.

Me too. I want to eat crayfish and drink Leeuwin Estate chardonnay.

C'mon Australia! Hook in ASAP. You bang on about the best country in the world and then go to Bali for your holidays.

[Turnleft080]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJmqssxtxe0

I think this guy sums up this thread and I agree we need to fill all 737s A320s which will have a flow
on effect to filling hotels, tour operators, restaurants etc. To get the economy moving again people need to spend money.

[Oriana]

MISERY LOVES COMPANY.

[Dookie on Drums]

At least there are girls at the parties I go to...

Haha!! ok that was a very good comeback. :D Well played sir!

[LostWanderer]

I’m predicting a strong domestic travel market by Christmas. Whilst international borders remain effectively closed, there would have to be significant pent up domestic travel demand by then. More Australian tourist travel was taken overseas than foreign visitors to Australia before this all happened. A huge chunk of those are still going to want to travel somewhere within Australia, for a short break or family visits. The caravan and camping industry is expecting massive boom times ahead once restrictions are eased.

I don’t think it will be about hundreds of thousands flocking to the Gold Coast, but more like heading off to different places, hiring a car for a few days and exploring towns and areas.

That would be great news for us all if the market does stage a recovery.
However I have been hearing an awful lot about this potentially worse second wave in the past few days. From what I saw on the news the other day the CDC in the US is all but expecting it now, alarmist? that is entirely possible.
Assuming we don't get hit with this in the near term, your theory could be spot on...if we do get it, I think all bets are off for the industry to even begin to slightly recover for a long time.

Truly truly hope this isn't the case, like most all of you, I miss my old office.

[j3pipercub]

All I get on Whatsapp are photos of Barry...

j3

[dr dre]

That would be great news for us all if the market does stage a recovery.
However I have been hearing an awful lot about this potentially worse second wave in the past few days. From what I saw on the news the other day the CDC in the US is all but expecting it now, alarmist? that is entirely possible.
Assuming we don't get hit with this in the near term, your theory could be spot on...if we do get it, I think all bets are off for the industry to even begin to slightly recover for a long time.

Truly truly hope this isn't the case, like most all of you, I miss my old office.

I think the risk of a second wave may be country specific. It may just be the importation of more virus carriers back into the country than a true second wave. As far as the US goes their second wave will probably be a second spike that occurs when certain parts of the country decide that money is more important than lives and re-open to re-spread the virus.

In Australia we've taken a more sensible approach and should be close to no new infections soon so a return to near normal Domestic and possibly trans Tasman flying should be possible by year's end. International will take longer, and probably much longer for the USA.

[exfocx]

That would be great news for us all if the market does stage a recovery.
However I have been hearing an awful lot about this potentially worse second wave in the past few days. From what I saw on the news the other day the CDC in the US is all but expecting it now, alarmist? that is entirely possible...........................

Really, the CDC possibly alarmist!! Given that disease control is their remit, I doubt it.

[exfocx]

I want to go on record that I think the economy is going to bounce back quicker than expected, assuming we can come up with an effective treatment. The difference between this and earlier recessions is that we know the cause. The service industry has been hit hard and fast, but it is also capable of bouncing back very fast. Restaurants and cafes can start up with food and a few phone calls - fast. Unlike manufacturers who have to be slow. Airlines are somewhere in the middle.

You do follow the news, don't you? Finding an effective treatment anytime soon is not likely and this is not my expert pilot opinion speaking, this is from reading what the real experts say.

Btw, cv19 is just the straw that broke the camels back. The issues go all the way back to the GFC and the increasing levels of debt. If it wasn't CV19 it would have been something else.

[Transition Layer]

All I get on Whatsapp are photos of Barry...

j3
We must have some mutual friends :}

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

All I get on Whatsapp are photos of Barry...
His name’s actually Wood.
Well his stage name at least.

Can anyone confirm those numbers of 350s sitting unwanted at Toulouse?

[pineteam]

All I get on Whatsapp are photos of Barry...

j3

HAHA! Same here and the meme with the funny black dancing guys with the coffin! xD

[j3pipercub]

They're the heroes we need in these dire times.

[Fuel-Off]

Emirate grounds 38 A380, cancels all orders for Boeing 777x (150 aircraft, the largest order for this type). They "invite" all employees over 56 to retire

EK hasn't cancelled any 777X orders (yet). They changed a few 777-9s for 787-9s but still have 115 on order so far.


Fuel-Off :ok:

[SOPS]

Have EK asked all over 56 to retire?

[smiling monkey]

United losing $100 mil a day seems hard to believe. Or do they mean $100 mil a month?

[Lambswool]

Haha!! ok that was a very good comeback. :D Well played sir!

Still waiting for a return witticism by DasUber.

It is sure to happen. But nothing yet.

[halas]

@SOPS. No.

halas

[das Uber Soldat]

At least there are girls at the parties I go to...
Its called "recess". And you've been told before, not within 400 yards.

[Lambswool]

and there it is! :}

[Paragraph377]

United losing $100 mil a day seems hard to believe. Or do they mean $100 mil a month? Hard to believe, not really. VA are losing an estimated $4.5m per day, or thereabouts, with a fleet of around 110 aircraft from memory, serving 23m residents in Aus. Happy to be corrected. In comparison United Airlines has approximately 790 jets in its fleet, within a country of 320m residents. Keep in mind this isn’t $100m per day in PROFIT, it’s $100m per day which includes profit, fuel, wages, the whole gamut. Delta is losing $60m per day and has a round 870 aircraft in its fleet. The more aircraft type you have in your fleet = the more money it costs to run your business. Even Fedex has around 650 aircraft.

You can’t compare apples with oranges as both have different business structures, aircraft type and so on. Both have different passenger and freight operations too. But the sheer size of these fleets is bigger than anything we will ever see in Australia by comparison. So losses of $60m, $100m per day or even more is certainly conceivable and realistic.

Shutting down the world is serious **** and the costs to businesses and ultimately countries is not measurable, it is that big. This is a disaster that will take more years to repair than most of us have left in us to live.

[Buster Hyman]

And what does PNT mean?
Probably Not True.

[Ollie Onion]

And the US airlines big problem is that they have kept a good proportion of their flights going as travel in the US is not restricted. Grounding an airline might cost money but flying empty aircraft around the skies will cost you more.

[Ragnor]

Well two states have relaxed social distancing rules from next Saturday, hopefully others follow and the public look to travel and we see a demand for air travel. Hopefully back by end of June start July.

[KRUSTY 34]

Well two states have relaxed social distancing rules from next Saturday, hopefully others follow and the public look to travel and we see a demand for air travel. Hopefully back by end of June start July.

Perhaps a tad optimistic Ragnor?

[BNEA320]

I want to go on record that I think the economy is going to bounce back quicker than expected, assuming we can come up with an effective treatment. The difference between this and earlier recessions is that we know the cause. The service industry has been hit hard and fast, but it is also capable of bouncing back very fast. Restaurants and cafes can start up with food and a few phone calls - fast. Unlike manufacturers who have to be slow. Airlines are somewhere in the middle.
economy was heading for recession way before Corona. It's tge recession we had to have as otgers postponed by crazy wasteful govt spending eg. $2m tuckshop which should have cost $100k.

When people start thinking they should be paid for doing nothing, we need a recession.

[BNEA320]

You do follow the news, don't you? Finding an effective treatment anytime soon is not likely and this is not my expert pilot opinion speaking, this is from reading what the real experts say.

Btw, cv19 is just the straw that broke the camels back. The issues go all the way back to the GFC and the increasing levels of debt. If it wasn't CV19 it would have been something else.
seems to be an expert on every street corner like councils in Sydney.

but seriously the media must run around getting someone to say something they want said & hey presto he/shes an expert while real experts disagree but aren't heard.

[Ragnor]

Perhaps a tad optimistic Ragnor?

I am an optimistic person, I don't see the point in sitting around pessimistic. Either way how you feel, the public will be keen to get away and be somewhere other than home. Before you say ppl don't have money to travel, most of the traveling public who use air travel are still employed a big chunk of the current unemployed from COVID-19 are under the age of 20 accounting for approximate 8.8%, most of those would suggest they're in hospitality. There is a lot of other data out there but overall I'm confident of a return soon.