Future of Jetstar

[krismiler]

Qantas are looking to exit from Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam. They are probably looking at a period of consolidation and belt tightening in preparation for the post COVID-19 era. Divesting themselves of loss making foreign ventures is likely to be high up on the agenda. Jetstar Asia in Singapore have suspended flights until 19 May and might not be too far behind. What is Jetstar Australia's place likely to be, as mainline will certainly make sure they are looked after first ? With Virgin likely to be a shadow of their former size if they survive at all, and excess capacity from reduced international flying, JQ might be inline for restructuring.

A future JQ could be an important part of QF, catering to a new era of very budget minded passengers and also keeping any new airlines from being too profitable. It could also much less important with the competition crippled and reduced mainline international flying leaving spare capacity. If Virgin go under and there is no replacement it may have to be spun off to prevent QF having a monopoly.

In any scenario if anything is losing money, be it routes, bases or subsidiaries it will be on the chopping block.

https://vietnaminsider.vn/will-jetstar-pacific-be-wound-down-as-qantas-seeks-to-offload-shares/

[dontgive2FACs]

If Virgin fall over (unfortunately, looking possible), I can see a period with Qantas holding a monopoly until the end of COVID.

Thereafter, I can imagine the space being filled with a foreign-backed carrier. I believe revenues on tickets are relatively much higher in Australia than Asian and may other parts of the world.

I would think Singapore Airlines will also be hit hard by COVID. Speculating that they don’t have their own ‘domestic’ market (ie closed borders affect them as a small island nation). They might be looked to invest in a market that does and can operate within its own borders. Singaporeans are indeed astute businessmen. I heard they just raised some capital. Whether that’s to find heir fight or else, we can only take blind guesses. Maybe both?

Whatever carrier fills the space of Virgin, you can be sure it will be a lean and mean operation. Any previous non-profitable routes cut, rock-bottom contracts with suppliers and workforce. (Not to mention also assisted/facilitated entry by Aus Govt). What specific section of the market will they aim for? We will have to wait and see.

The dual-brand strategy might yet be needed to fend off the new entrant. Time will tell.

Regardless, I do hope that all find their way back to flying one way or another.

To my colleagues over fence who fly for VA, please take care and look after one another. We are all going to be affected by this and stand with you. If anyone is in a spot of bother, please reach out to your friends in industry. Families don’t understand the pressures we work with. Remember that you’re their hero; whether you drive a haul truck or Airbus truck, they don’t care. (Your perception they do is all in your mind).

Good luck to all. Merry Easter....

[Derfred]

The way I see it, Jetstar serves 3 purposes for the Qantas Group:

1. To operate routes at a lower cost base than mainline to destinations where mainline’s higher cost base cannot achieve a worthwhile return.

2. To make business difficult for any other competing low-cost operators (or indeed medium-cost carriers such as VA, which has sadly had an identity problem ever since JB took over).

3. To provide a point of significant differentiation from the full-service mainline product.

It does not exist to directly add a significant profit to the bottom line, although it’s nice when it does. The bottom line is improved merely by it’s existence and it’s negative effect on competition.

No matter what anyone might like to think, this strategy has been enormously successful for the Qantas Group. It has kept VA struggling and has successfully neutered any new or potential entrants to the market. Of course I am talking about JQ domestic here, the JQ 787 operation is a different animal, and no-one has ever worked out why that still exists.

Selling JQ would completely go against the entire philosophy.

Being forced by the ACCC to split off JQ (in the event of a failure of VA), whilst not impossible in the current environment (nothing is!), would be extremely unlikely in my opinion. QF would easily be able to argue that the two airlines are complementary, and there is plenty of room for a new entrant once the market picks up.

In fact, many would argue that if JQ was spun off, it could struggle to even survive. Its critical mass could make it possible, but QF has bigger pockets, and if QF decided that the company they were forced to sell is now the enemy (which it would be), they could go on the offensive against it! And probably succeed. Network would pick up a whole bunch of cheap A320’s and crew overnight, and suddenly we’re back where we started, only worse.

Furthermore, Government leaders have already suggested that should VA fail, they would assist a new start-up to prevent an ongoing monopoly (whatever that means). Will it be Richard Branson’s Virgin MkII, Strategic MkII, SilkAus, LionAus, AirNZAus, RyanAus? Who knows. Maybe SouthWestAus, that could be nice. Or Alliance might just decide to fill in the gap, that could be nice, too.

Please let me end by saying that I desperately hope that VA makes it. I really feel for my VA colleagues going through this, I think about it several times per day.

[Sunfish]

Qantas will use the pandemic to exit all Jetstar Asian brands. They were never a profitable proposition. Renewed nationalism will destroy them anyway.

[DanV2]

A "AirNzAus" or a "SilkAus" are extremely unlikely. Both owners of those brands got bailed out by their governments, and Silk is being absorbed into their mainline SQ brand.
Also to add both companies' previous attempts in the Australian market had ended in dismal failures.

SIA (Singapore Government) or Air NZ (NZ Government/NZ Investors) aren't that stupid to have a 4th attempt (or 3rd attempt in NZ's case) at the Australian market.

Especially when pointing out the incompetence both SIA and Air NZ had when they had full 100% control on one of their Australian attempts (For SIA that was Tiger Airway AU and Air NZ that was Ansett), and yet still couldn't get that attempt right due to a mixture of incompetence and egos.

[DanV2]

Getting back on topic re Jetstar. The companies QF owns less than 49% of, I can see them exiting (Jetstar Pacific, Jetstar Japan, etc). As for Jetstar NZ, there's also a good chance of JQ exiting that and transferring those aircraft back to Australian Domestic/Trans-Tasman runs. JQ has already exited regional NZ operations and transferred those aircraft back to QFLink.

Assuming that SIA doesn't have a 4th attempt at the Australian domestic market, I could see QF exiting 3K (Jetstar Asia) being a possibility by selling their 49% stake to another company.

Either way, JQi in Australia is a good chance of being decimated if not folded up entirely. A post COVID-19 JQ-i could have their international flying reduced to just Trans-Tasman, Fiji and Bali "bogan-bus" flying with A320neos and A321LRs, whilst exiting long-haul completely with the 788 fleet transferred to QF mainline.

[krismiler]

Some very well thought out scenarios posted above, my take is fairly similar.

1. If Virgin are resurrected into a chopped down operation then JQ can be pulled back as well. Keep it for flying bogans to the Gold Coast and other routes which can't support mainline. No need to use it on major city pairs to undermine the competition anymore. Use COVID-19 as the perfect excuse to abandon the pan Asian strategy which wasn't working anyway. Lose most of the international routes especially the B787 ones, possibly retain AKL and DPS flights with inconvenient times so as not to pull pax away from mainline. Keep enough aircraft as a deterrent to anyone who may consider going head to head with QF again in the future.

2. If Virgin go under and another operator steps in then close the loss making entities as described above, but retain a larger domestic network to keep the new entrant in check.

3. If Virgin go under and no one else steps in, then a permanent monopoly won't be allowed. The ACCC will want competition and the government won't want the QF unions to have them by the short and curlies like the MUA do on the waterfront. In this case they can structure JQ so as to sell it for a decent price whilst making sure it can't compete too aggressively with it's former parent.

Funnily enough, Qantas seem to come out ahead whatever happens.

[George Glass]

Jetstar was started up because QF had to respond to Virgin undercutting them on price because of a lower cost base. Simple solution was to subsidise JQ to beat Virgin at their own game. Secondarily JQ could replace mainline QF operations where there was little demand for business class. QF has been ruthless in managing yield and put the screws on Virgin. Borghetti responded by trying to compete for the premium market and bingo, cost went through the roof and we are now where we are. That means that QF will keep JQ , keep its cost base as low as possible and make sure nobody is stupid enough to try and replace Virgin when it fails.

[blow.n.gasket]

Post Covid , assuming Virgin folds , with a subsequent Qantas monopoly, divesting Jetstar might be a Government mandated necessity?
Jetsarts lower cost base may very well be non existent come a depressionary post Covid induced rejig of the way things were ?
Qantas May very well end up 1/2 the size it was if the economic reset is anywhere near as bad as what some pundits are predicting !
Sorry but which business entity would have more chance of survival , particularly with a global meltdown ?
Alan’s , johnny come lately folly , or a 100 year stalwart ?

[Buster Hyman]

As I posted on another thread, JQ to take the lions share of Domestic & QF going back to mainly INTL flying. My 2c.

[Derfred]

Kris,

I think you are close to the money with points 1 and 2.

I can’t see point 3 happening. This is still a free market economy. The ACCC don’t just get to walk in to a business and break it up because they “want competition”, and especially not just because the competition went bankrupt.

The ACCC is quite happy with monopolies all over the country.

If there is a temporary airline monopoly I’m sure the Govt will take steps to temper the gouging, but a monopoly won’t last.

In fact, during the recovery, and I don’t think any of us can predict exactly how the recovery will take place, even with only one airline, I don’t predict too much gouging. Look at it this way, you have an airline in a slowly recovering economy with too many aircraft, and too many employees. What would you do? Raise prices? I don’t think so. I think you would offer bargain basement prices to get all the employees and aircraft working again, boost the economic outlook, and do everything you can to persuade the travelling public that flying is suddenly cool again. After all, you know you won’t get back in the black until all those planes are back in the air and full of punters.

It will be down the track, once the economy is back on track and the load factors are sustainable that the gouging becomes a potential problem. And don’t forget, the airline that survived this will have burned billions in cash getting through it. The economy is going to have to pay for this little social experiment one way or another. Expecting slightly higher taxes for the next decade or two? Or course! Higher airfares? Maybe! Is that unreasonable?

But as for competition? Something will emerge. Airline Entrepreneurs can’t help themselves, especially when a State Government is getting toey for a bit of investment. And they will be. But they won’t be interested until they have someone to undercut! And there won’t be any potential to undercut until the planes are full again. Don’t forget, the LCC model relies on full aircraft.

[krismiler]

JQ is a very useful and proven weapon to retain against anyone trying to go into Qantas's 2/3 of the market, however if no one steps up into the remaining 1/3 within a year or two of a Virgin collapse they may not be able to keep it. In this scenario a Scoot take over of JQ may not be as far out of the field as it first seems.

SIA should come through this but its primary market of premium passengers won't. Those suites and lie flat business class seats will be mostly empty and the economy seats heavily discounted so they need to look for a growth area. Tiger Airways Australia was a debacle, going up against three much larger and well entrenched opponents with a handful of aircraft managed from a portacabin in the car park wasn't going to work anyway. When you add in someone at the top who thought he could play fast and loose with the rules it would never succeed.

The Chinese have a culture of not repeating failure and in a vastly different environment it could be 4th time lucky. Few entities will have any spare cash going and even fewer will be keen to risk it on an airline. Singapore Incorporated should have something left in the kitty and might consider the risk acceptable this time based on:

1. No competition, 2/3 for QF and 1/3 for Scoot, each respects the others market. QF set the fare and Scoot go in 15% under ie too much for the bogans to trade up and not worth it for the top end to trade down. Why have a price war when they can both make more money without one ? This time no one is out to destroy them, peaceful coexistence in a comfortable duopoly. If Virgin had gone along with this strategy instead of starting price and capacity wars they wouldn't be where they are today, going for the corporate market was unforgivable.
2. The operation is already up and running at a decent size with CASA approved people and structures in place. No year long ramp up.
3. Same aircraft as used by Scoot already.
4. AirAsia, Cebu Pacific, the Indonesian, Chinese,Vietnamese and Indian low costs all have a large home market and operate domestic flights. Scoot have a small home market (relatively wealthy though) and no domestic flights. Australia would give them that and fit well into the overall network.
5. SIA could stress the benefits to Australia of maintaining competition on the domestic front and providing connections to the all important Asian markets. There are strong ties between Australia and Singapore already, if a local entity can't take over JQ then Singapore is the next best thing.

[Derfred]

As I posted on another thread, JQ to take the lions share of Domestic & QF going back to mainly INTL flying. My 2c.

Really?

In the short term I predict almost the opposite.

In the early stages of the recovery, I predict very little JQ domestic, and QF INTL flying will remain at the skeleton freight/govt subsidised level.

Do you think JQ will pick up because Jack and Shazza missed out on their Easter Gold Coast apartment booking, and they might get to re-use their credit in September? Do you think the $89 credit that Jetstar is withholding from Jack and Shazza is going to hold up the business so they can shut down QF mainline?

QF domestic wiill increase in accordance with demand based on relaxations to business travel, not leisure. That is why JQ will not recover as quickly as QF domestic. Look, I think both will recover equally in the end, really, but I think business will lead the charge.

For example, I predict that one of the first relaxations will be that for example a Mining Engineering Consultant from Melbourne will be allowed to finally visit their minesite project in QLD that they were supposed to inspect 2 weeks ago until they suddenly weren’t allowed to. These jobs aren’t going away, they are building up while the poor sods in charge of serious jobs they are responsible for are supposedly working from home. With every day, these companies are losing more millions, and they won’t tolerate it for long. These will be the first people to be “relaxed” in a gradual wind-down of Covid-19 protection measures, and they are the high-value clients of Qantas domestic. Not Jetstar, sorry. They pay $500 for a ticket, not $50.

I suggest that the pent-up demand in business travel required by those who actually have and would need to travel to get this economy happening again will surprise even Qantas. There is only so much you can do on Skype when you have a multi-million dollar project happening in another state, which is only stalled on the basis of the whim of a government official, and could be revoked next week, next month, 3 months, next year, who knows?

[Derfred]

a Scoot take over of JQ may not be as far out of the field as it first seems.

Hi Kris,
Either I’m not understanding your posts or you are not understanding mine.

You’ve given many reasons why SQ might like to buy JQ from QF and re-brand it as Scoot.

But you haven’t given a single reason why QF would want to sell it. I’ve given you many reasons why it won’t be for sale. I’ve also given my reasons for why I don’t believe there will be a forced sale.

I don’t speak for QF, but as far as I can predict, JQ is not for sale. So, what’s your point?

[Chris2303]

Post Covid , assuming Virgin folds , with a subsequent Qantas monopoly, divesting Jetstar might be a Government mandated necessity?

And what if Qantas Group just tells the Government "If you want JQ as a separate entity you pay for it or we close it down."

Bearing in mind all the rumours on here in particular that JQ bills QF for a lot of it's outgoings such as fuel and maintenance, spinning JQ off could end in it's demise anyway

[Australopithecus]

All of these scenarios imply that the business and political environment will be the same post-covid as before. We still don’t know anything about the recovery horizon yet. There are lots of hopeful stories about possible vaccines, possible treatments etc, but nothing that you can hang your hat on.

During the recovery there will be a glut of cheap airframes, and still cheapish fuel, but perhaps the revenue side of the equation will be diminished. I winder if there will be many backers left willing to invest in airlines when there will be many more obvious bargains to be had in other industries.

Here's a mostly rhetorical question: why would a government facing a crippling debt allow foreign airlines, or really any corporations, to operate carte blanche within its borders? Would it not make more sense to insist that employees and head offices are locally based and locally taxed? Or at least taxed on the portion of their assessed profits earned locally? Protectionism may be necessary for a decade or so to restore the world to an even keel. It seems from down here in the cheap seats that globalisation as a strategy is going to get some serious re-thinking.

I am (reluctantly) reading opinions in the conservative media suggesting that the economy (profits) are more important than the death toll. Apparently serious people in the UK and the US are advocating this, although mostly in media affiliated with the Murdoch press. Why do you think that the very wealthy are afraid of pandemics? Its because afterward the door will be wide open for a new politics that focuses more on the commonwealth than the very few very wealthy. That is how revolutions happen, and apple carts get upset. We seem to be a long way from that today, but who knows where this road ends?

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Really?

In the short term I predict almost the opposite.

In the early stages of the recovery, I predict very little JQ domestic, and QF INTL flying will remain at the skeleton freight/govt subsidised level.

Do you think JQ will pick up because Jack and Shazza missed out on their Easter Gold Coast apartment booking, and they might get to re-use their credit in September? Do you think the $89 credit that Jetstar is withholding from Jack and Shazza is going to hold up the business so they can shut down QF mainline?

QF domestic wiill increase in accordance with demand based on relaxations to business travel, not leisure. That is why JQ will not recover as quickly as QF domestic.

I think you’ll find that businesses who have been using Skype/zoom meetings for 6,12,18 months (however long this crisis lasts) will begin to wonder why they’re spending the time and money to send people around the country for business meetings. That’s the feedback from my friends in the corporate world. It obviously won’t disappear entirely but a percentage of that traffic may not exist in the post COVID 19 world.

However Shazza still can’t skype in that holiday to the Gold Coast. If restrictions are lifted in time for schoolies or the Christmas school holidays, I think you’ll find there will be plenty of leisure demand.

[v1r8]

For example, I predict that one of the first relaxations will be that for example a Mining Engineering Consultant from Melbourne will be allowed to finally visit their minesite project in QLD that they were supposed to inspect 2 weeks ago until they suddenly weren’t allowed to. These jobs aren’t going away, they are building up while the poor sods in charge of serious jobs they are responsible for are supposedly working from home. With every day, these companies are losing more millions, and they won’t tolerate it for long. These will be the first people to be “relaxed” in a gradual wind-down of Covid-19 protection measures, and they are the high-value clients of Qantas domestic. Not Jetstar, sorry. They pay $500 for a ticket, not $50.

I suggest that the pent-up demand in business travel required by those who actually have and would need to travel to get this economy happening again will surprise even Qantas. There is only so much you can do on Skype when you have a multi-million dollar project happening in another state, which is only stalled on the basis of the whim of a government official, and could be revoked next week, next month, 3 months, next year, who knows?

and here is where I think you are wrong. Many companies will find video conferencing works pretty well nowadays. For those who do need face time after months and months of bleeding money they will absolutely spend 50 over 500 bucks to get from A to B if offered by a LCC instead of QF. In good times LCCs fly a lot of people who normally don’t fly much. In bad times they fly people who want to scale down / start watching their bottom line more. Business and leisure wise.

[crosscutter]

Jetstar, Qantas and Virgin will be smaller for quite a while. It’s not rocket science! Who else are going to lose their job? Seriously bad situation.

Its hard to know if the speculation on here is delusional or hopeful? Probably both.

[krismiler]

But you haven’t given a single reason why QF would want to sell it.

QF won’t want to sell JQ, it gives them a bigger market share, enables them to run routes which mainline can’t make a profit on and enables them to undermine the competition on price whilst they maintain fare levels, it’s brilliant. Whilst the actual numbers might show a loss, the overall contribution to the big picture is huge. Full service airlines running low cost subsidiaries doesn’t usually work too well but it certainly has here.

If Virgin go under, maintaining air services will be the priority rather than competition and having QF/JQ as the only airline might be acceptable for a couple of years but ultimately there will have to be an independent alternative or the government may require JQ to be sold off.

A QF monopoly may be acceptable with price controls and full regulation regarding routes and schedules but that’s the last thing they want. There needs to be an Australian version of Southwest Air or easyJet rather than another full service airline trying to go head on at QF. There is an acceptable degree of competition and both companies can make money.

[Des Dimona]

In lean economic times, Qantas uses Jetstar domestic more because of the low operating cost base compared to mainline.

When times are good, the profit margin is greater on domestic mainline and Jetstar tends to suffer.

So, in view of the undoubted recession (or depression, depending on your view) ahead, I don't see Jetstar domestic going anywhere soon.

However, Jetstar's international 787 operation has a huge question mark over it, as worldwide border controls are likely to force massive reductions in operations even after the initial restrictions are slowly removed. If it resumes, the 787 operation will be very small for some time. During this period of restarting international routes, Qantas will also probably want to take advantage of greater margins using the mainline fleet by removing the LCC element. This is a significant advantage, given that there will probably be fewer international operators and at a much less frequency.

[Potsie Weber]

In lean economic times, Qantas uses Jetstar domestic more because of the low operating cost base compared to mainline.

When times are good, the profit margin is greater on domestic mainline and Jetstar tends to suffer.

So, in view of the undoubted recession (or depression, depending on your view) ahead, I don't see Jetstar domestic going anywhere soon.

However, Jetstar's international 787 operation has a huge question mark over it, as worldwide border controls are likely to force massive reductions in operations even after the initial restrictions are slowly removed. If it resumes, the 787 operation will be very small for some time. During this period of restarting international routes, Qantas will also probably want to take advantage of greater margins using the mainline fleet by removing the LCC element. This is a significant advantage, given that there will probably be fewer international operators and at a much less frequency.


Probably more depends on leasing arrangements. I believe for domestic, QF own most of its 737 and over half A330 fleet whilst Jetstar relies more on leasing, but it does own some. I would expect it much easier to arrange cheaper storage leases than when the aircraft are flying. Thus, using mainline with its fully owned fleet could be the cheapest option.

[3 Holer]

And what if Qantas Group just tells the Government "If you want JQ as a separate entity you pay for it or we close it down."


The last thing the Government will want (even if it could afford it - and it won't) is an airline. This country (and the world) is headed for one of the biggest recessions we will probably ever witness and it will be deep and long lasting. "Things" are not going to be as they were in six months time. Tourism, sport, theatre, small business, big business etc., are going to take years to regain profitability, many won't rebuild and those that do will come out a very different model.
Forget about overseas travel as most of the countries that the tourists frequent will be in the same boat as Australia (probably worse, (given the demographics). Most of us won't be able to afford it anyway.

On the bright side, we will be able to tour this fine country and this may be the catalyst for reestablishing the manufacturing industries in Australia that were sold off during the "good times"! The AFL,NRL and Cricket Australia will, through necessity, be leaner and more attuned to the needs of the supporter rather than the corporates. We may even get to see a AFL Grand Final for a reasonable priced ticket!

Priority now is to look after our families and Mates so we can come out the end of this in reasonable shape.

Happy Easter to all and don't eat too many eggs!!!!

[Blueskymine]

In lean economic times, Qantas uses Jetstar domestic more because of the low operating cost base compared to mainline.

When times are good, the profit margin is greater on domestic mainline and Jetstar tends to suffer.

So, in view of the undoubted recession (or depression, depending on your view) ahead, I don't see Jetstar domestic going anywhere soon.

However, Jetstar's international 787 operation has a huge question mark over it, as worldwide border controls are likely to force massive reductions in operations even after the initial restrictions are slowly removed. If it resumes, the 787 operation will be very small for some time. During this period of restarting international routes, Qantas will also probably want to take advantage of greater margins using the mainline fleet by removing the LCC element. This is a significant advantage, given that there will probably be fewer international operators and at a much less frequency.

And what data do you base that on? During the GFC JQ was 3 years old. Qantas took advantage of the vacuum left by Ansett and the cheap aircraft at the time to expand aggressively. It also did this to leverage a growing virgin with a cheaper cost base.

Times are different now and Qantas is Qantas. If it comes down to it, it’ll save itself and mothball or shed the rest.

Jetstar is a great operation. It stimulates the
market and allows many to fly who ordinarily wouldn’t. However it caters to a price sensitive market and that market will be savaged by what’s coming.

It also depends on what happens over the fence. If the worst happens, Qantas has no urgent need to stoke up the Jetstar boiler. It can focus on yield and it’s core business. If the competition survives, Jetstar will be needed as before. It’ll also be needed if another player enters the market.

[SandyPalms]

The cost base difference between QF and JQ would be totally different now than it was at JQ's inception or the GFC. I doubt the future of JQ is in doubt, but it too won't be the airline it once was.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

Times are different now and Qantas is Qantas. If it comes down to it, it’ll save itself and mothball or shed the rest.

I think this quote highlights a misunderstanding of the structure of the Qantas Group. The ‘us and them’ mindset that some frontline staff have between the airlines I don’t believe is the mindset at a CEO/Board level.

The Qantas Group is just that, a group of airlines. Qantas domestic, qantas international, QantasLink, Jetstar. Each a seperate and equal part of the group.

Joyce came from Jetstar, now group CEO. His most likely successor, Gareth Evans, currently the Jetstar CEO. This idea that Qantas will ‘save itself’ doesn’t really stack up. Jetstar is as much a part of the Qantas group as any other airline from a CEO/board level perspective.

Even now, with zero demand we’re running 1 qantas 737, 1 Jetstar A320 and 1 qlink Dash 8.
Each part of the group still running.

[wheels_down]

It remains to be seen if Virgin will return its Tiger brand. They said they would, and was fairly defensive when questioned, but things have deteriorated further since then, and it’s more overheads gone if they are going down the route of a more basic 2008 level of 50 73s and 4 777.

Tiger had 17-18 aircraft recently. That’s a lot of capacity given to Jetstar when the Dom market bounces back in 2021.

JQ also have a monopoly in many markets. Cairns, Gold Coast. These flights largely are filled with Chinese tourists. And it appears these travelers will be back again more so before our own domestic local traffic.

They operate 6 flights a day A321 Melbourne to Cairns between May to September. Tiger had 1. Virgin and have one. These flights are full. They also have 15 flights a day Melbourne to Sydney A321. On some days they carry more passengers than Virgin. It’s the price sensitive corporate traffic which is growing and even more so now.

[SandyPalms]

Even now, with zero demand we’re running 1 qantas 737, 1 Jetstar A320 and 1 qlink Dash 8.
Each part of the group still running.

I don’t think that point is true. I think what AJ meant was these aircraft operating between Syd-Mel, as He was comparing the group to VA in that they would operate 1 flight a day on that route. There are many 737’s operating out west, for example.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

I don’t think that point is true. I think what AJ meant was these aircraft operating between Syd-Mel, as He was comparing the group to VA in that they would operate 1 flight a day on that route. There are many 737’s operating out west, for example.

ah, I may have misunderstood! Happy to be corrected if wrong :)

but I guess it still backs up my point, even in these dark times they’re splitting the flying between the different parts of the business.

[Keg]

I think you’ll find that businesses who have been using Skype/zoom meetings for 6,12,18 months (however long this crisis lasts) will begin to wonder why they’re spending the time and money to send people around the country for business meetings. That’s the feedback from my friends in the corporate world.

The feedback from friends and siblings in the corporate world is that Zoom meetings have enforced how important it is to get proper face to face time. Body language, verbal inflections in the voice that are hidden in Zoom meetings, the ability to have quick side chats with multiple players once the ‘formalities’ are done. They all indicate that they can’t wait to get moving again.

They also won’t be travelling Jetstar. Not reliable enough in terms of OTP, not enough schedule flexibility, too many cancelled flights without the fallback of another flight in 15-30 minutes, no lounges.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

The feedback from friends and siblings in the corporate world is that Zoom meetings have enforced how important it is to get proper face to face time. Body language, verbal inflections in the voice that are hidden in Zoom meetings, the ability to have quick side chats with multiple players once the ‘formalities’ are done. They all indicate that they can’t wait to get moving again.

They also won’t be travelling Jetstar. Not reliable enough in terms of OTP, not enough schedule flexibility, too many cancelled flights without the fallback of another flight in 15-30 minutes, no lounges.

Not every suit has the same opinion I suppose. Jetstar already carries plenty of SME price sensitive business traffic. When budgets get slashed during recessions, I don’t think lounges matter so much or the minor annoyances of Skype/Zoom.

I’ve read a few articles which differ in opinion as to whether business travel will rebound strongly post COVID 19. I won’t cherry pick the articles that suit my contention but it’s fair to say there are varied opinions. Only time will tell.

[crosscutter]

Theory is all well and good. JQ and QF is a formidable set up. How the new world order will shake out has as much to do with the ownership structure of the aircraft as it does customer demand. There is no V shaped bounce back in demand. For the next couple of years managing the surplus aircraft (lease or debt repayments) will be as important as trying to match segmental demand.

[Ollie Onion]

Let’s face it everyone, nobody has any idea what will happen, there are just too many variables. Jetstar in Oz and NZ has a lower cost base so could be cheaper to run and will limit losses, although they are primarily leisure airlines which may or may not be the last domestic market to come back to life. When redundancy is needed it will be cheaper in the short term to cut Jetstar pilots but in the long term cheaper for cost to weaken the mainline group. Maybe Joyce can be taken at face value when he says he wants to retain everyone as many are saying recovery of most operations will happen within 5 years. Remember how they were struggling to find pilots, if China has beaten this thing then it won’t be long before their airlines will be wanting people back. Emirates is already starting some limited flying again and will no doubt be straight back in the air when a vaccine is found or international travel starts again. I am sure that airlines like Qantas do not others to get the jump on them, on the other hand they have said they will only increase flights as demand dictates so they may dribble capacity back into the system. Maybe they will shut the whole thing down. Air NZ’s apparent plan to make so many redundant will take 18 months to action with the amount of down training required, this will be a a huge cost and will probably be finished just in time to start recruitment again, maybe Qantas thinks that LWOP is the answer as they expect to need everyone back. The last airline I took voluntary redundancy from during the GFC stated it was required due to the outlook and there would be no recruitment for between 2-5 years, I had only been gone 8 months when they contacted me asking if I wanted to come back, so who the hell knows.

[SandyPalms]

so who the hell knows.

Yep. That sums it up

[27/09]

Especially when pointing out the incompetence both SIA and Air NZ had when they had full 100% control on one of their Australian attempts (For SIA that was Tiger Airway AU and Air NZ that was Ansett), and yet still couldn't get that attempt right due to a mixture of incompetence and egos.

You conveniently overlooked something or don't remember history all that well.

In the case of Ansett, yes there was some egos involved, but there was a significant degree of underarm bowling involving the Australian regulator working as a proxy for QF or other entities.

Anyhow I don't see Air NZ bothering with the Australian market for a multitude of reasons. They'll stick to their knitting.

[krismiler]

I think we can stop using the word "recession", once the lights go back on we'll realise we're in a depression like we've never seen before. Recovery will be like the aftermath of a major war and there won't be a strong United States to bail Australia out. The lockdown can only last for so long, it won't eliminate COVID-19 and enable us to walk out our front doors into a virus free world. However with everyone now taking precautions that they weren't taking in the early days it might be enough to break the back of the pandemic and reduce it to a manageable level. People will keep getting infected and some will die but hopefully at a rate that the health system can cope with.

The easing of the lockdown will be gradual and in measured stages, we ground to a halt fairly quickly but the return to normality will take a lot longer. Domestic flights will be the first to resume but at a greatly reduced rate as the demand simply won't be there. International will take longer due to dearer flights and much of the world being off limits eg Africa and India won't be able to bring the virus under control in the same way that New Zealand and South Korea have.

Many QF international destinations are direct routes and with Australia not being a hub, QF will be far less impacted than Emirates who will lose substantial portions of their network for a long time and be avoided by passengers who won't want to mix with people from multiple countries when changing aircraft. In the early stages EK may have to operate SYD - LHR with the same aircraft and pax load with the stop in Dubai simply to change crew and refuel. This could build up to limited transfers involving safe countries in a separate terminal after a while, but the major hub operation will take a long time to return. Much of QFs international network is to countries which are likely to be able to recover from the outbreak within a reasonable time. The loss of Africa won't be that important for QF but it will be highly significant for EK. The partner/competitor will be nobbled, QF and BA could be the preferred airlines on the kangaroo route, just like the old days.

The wave hit first in East Asia and this region will likely be the first to recover, a holiday or business travel to Australia may be a better option than Europe or the USA for Chinese, Japanese and Koreans with health certificates.

[TACQANAVIAVEC]

Couldn't agree more with your comments. The longer this hibernation goes on for the more likely there will be barely enough work for a perhaps up to 1/2 of the pre COVID 19 QF. There will be enough space for other entrants to attempt to enter the market once things pick up again.

[directimped]

[QUOTE=Keg;10747269]The feedback from friends and siblings in the corporate world is that Zoom meetings have enforced how important it is to get proper face to face time. Body language, verbal inflections in the voice that are hidden in Zoom meetings, the ability to have quick side chats with multiple players once the ‘formalities’ are done. They all indicate that they can’t wait to get moving again.

/QUOTE]
that is not what I have been hearing at all, quite the opposite in fact. My parents in law (both office workers, one self employed) are both planning to switch to more online communication. Especially being of an older generation, this has been a forced introduction to technology. Othes are hoping to push for more working from home, if only a few days a week. On top of that, many businesses will need to recover losses in the years ahead and any non essential travel will be the first to go.

Not to say that business travel is over, of course not. However it will be significantly reduced and I think it isn't hard to draw that conclusion. It's about time too, we weren't fully utilising video conferencing in the way that we should have been.

​​Why do we spend hours each day sitting in cars/trains only to sir at a desk etc when such work can be done from home? Quite frankly it's ridiculous. It isn't 1950 anymore.

[Ken Borough]

Joyce came from Jetstar,

And what was he doing before he was CEO at JQ?

[chookcooker]

I think we can stop using the word "recession", once the lights go back on we'll realise we're in a depression like we've never seen before. Recovery will be like the aftermath of a major war and there won't be a strong United States to bail Australia out. The lockdown can only last for so long, it won't eliminate COVID-19 and enable us to walk out our front doors into a virus free world. However with everyone now taking precautions that they weren't taking in the early days it might be enough to break the back of the pandemic and reduce it to a manageable level. People will keep getting infected and some will die but hopefully at a rate that the health system can cope with.

The easing of the lockdown will be gradual and in measured stages, we ground to a halt fairly quickly but the return to normality will take a lot longer. Domestic flights will be the first to resume but at a greatly reduced rate as the demand simply won't be there. International will take longer due to dearer flights and much of the world being off limits eg Africa and India won't be able to bring the virus under control in the same way that New Zealand and South Korea have.

Many QF international destinations are direct routes and with Australia not being a hub, QF will be far less impacted than Emirates who will lose substantial portions of their network for a long time and be avoided by passengers who won't want to mix with people from multiple countries when changing aircraft. In the early stages EK may have to operate SYD - LHR with the same aircraft and pax load with the stop in Dubai simply to change crew and refuel. This could build up to limited transfers involving safe countries in a separate terminal after a while, but the major hub operation will take a long time to return. Much of QFs international network is to countries which are likely to be able to recover from the outbreak within a reasonable time. The loss of Africa won't be that important for QF but it will be highly significant for EK. The partner/competitor will be nobbled, QF and BA could be the preferred airlines on the kangaroo route, just like the old days.

The wave hit first in East Asia and this region will likely be the first to recover, a holiday or business travel to Australia may be a better option than Europe or the USA for Chinese, Japanese and Koreans with health certificates.


which major war? Because both world wars had polar opposite recoveries.
ww1 was followed by recession

ww2 recovery is also called the “golden age of capitalism”

[lederhosen]

The UK had rationing until 1954, nine years after the end of world war 2. It may have been the golden age of capitalism, but it was not a time of plenty.

[chookcooker]

The UK had rationing until 1954, nine years after the end of world war 2. It may have been the golden age of capitalism, but it was not a time of plenty.

“The post–World War II economic expansion, also known as the golden age of capitalism and the postwar economic boom or simply the long boom, was a broad period of worldwide economic expansion beginning after World War II and ending with the 1973–1975 recession.”

”In the US, Gross Domestic Product increased from $228 billion in 1945 to just under $1.7 trillion in 1975.”
-wikipedia

[lederhosen]

I think you are missing my point, which is that those of us hoping to resume flying soon, may be faced with a long wait before things start recovering. Viewed in 50 years this may seem like a small blip (I certainly hope so). But right now passenger airline operations are likely to be impacted for some considerable time.

[exfocx]

And what if Qantas Group just tells the Government "If you want JQ as a separate entity you pay for it or we close it down."...............

Yeah nah. If the gov wants competition and it sees an independent JQ as it, it just changes the law (if it needs to) and the ACCC forces QF to divest it for competition purposes.

[thec172man]

Yeah nah. If the gov wants competition and it sees an independent JQ as it, it just changes the law (if it needs to) and the ACCC forces QF to divest it for competition purposes.
And how is that going to attract any business to operate in Australia? If your competitor fails, we'll force you to break up your company so we can have "competition", seriously?

[2theline]

The feedback from friends and siblings in the corporate world is that Zoom meetings have enforced how important it is to get proper face to face time. Body language, verbal inflections in the voice that are hidden in Zoom meetings, the ability to have quick side chats with multiple players once the ‘formalities’ are done. They all indicate that they can’t wait to get moving again.

I think your friends and siblings are telling you this to keep you positive my friend. The reality is that Covid19 is showing a lot of businesses how cost effective Skype, Zoom and working from home really is. Unfortunately this will mean a sharp decline in business class and corporate travel in general post Covid19. I am hearing this from people in the corporate world who are licking their lips at the chance to reduce such overheads on the other side of this pandemic.

As for JQ v QF for whatever corporate travel remains post Covid - well you just have to look at the shift that has occured over the last few years in Europe. Many businesses that once flew their employees business class now use Easyjet, Wizzair and even Ryanair to keep costs down. This pandemic will only accelerate the same shift here in Aus in my opinion.

[Climb150]

Cutting travel budgets was spruiked post GFC. As soon as companies got back on their feet biz travel took off.

[Sunfish]

We are still planning a european trip next july.

[Chris2303]

We are still planning a european trip next july.

Hopefully Australia will have lifted it's border closure by then.

[Mach E Avelli]

Hopefully Australia will have lifted it's border closure by then.
Experts are saying that at best we could have a vaccine in 12 months. Once that happens, expect mandatory vaccination before many countries will allow entry.
At best in the meantime, some limited travel between countries where the virus is well controlled and with reciprocal arrangements may become possible, eg Australia and New Zealand perhaps.
But with what is happening in Indonesia, Turkey, the USA and enough other places around the world, to get to an agreeable country in Europe would probably require a direct flight. Transit through the usual Middle East suspects is likely to remain a no no.
I have deferred my plans for Europe this year by 12 months.

[longjohn]

I think your friends and siblings are telling you this to keep you positive my friend. The reality is that Covid19 is showing a lot of businesses how cost effective Skype, Zoom and working from home really is. Unfortunately this will mean a sharp decline in business class and corporate travel in general post Covid19. I am hearing this from people in the corporate world who are licking their lips at the chance to reduce such overheads on the other side of this pandemic.

As for JQ v QF for whatever corporate travel remains post Covid - well you just have to look at the shift that has occured over the last few years in Europe. Many businesses that once flew their employees business class now use Easyjet, Wizzair and even Ryanair to keep costs down. This pandemic will only accelerate the same shift here in Aus in my opinion.

Maybe, but maybe a lot of people now have a better understanding of the value in face to face communication and the limitations of said technology.

whether this returns us to pre-COVID levels of travel I don’t know.... but I have no doubt the corporate travel market will be alive and well post Covid.

[ampclamp]

If the Queensland Uni vaccine follows the current path its vaccine could be ready by January. Still a long time from here but faster than originally expected.

[Sunfish]

I add this comment as input to discussion of the future. If Virgin folds and there is no effective competition to jetstar, then I would expect the Qantas group to strangle the Australian tourist industry. Australia is borderline tourism competitive now(pre covid) there MUST be a competitive travel market or Qantas/Jetstar will just increase prices.

So far for our cancelled winter travel to Europe, we have recovered our airfares and cancelled our accommodation bookings with a loss to date of around $600. The yacht charter in Croatia was moved forward a year at no charge. The italian ferry company is supposedly bankrupt so no refund there.

The saddest part is that we had just perfected our holiday travel methods; A very small car, AirBnB in small towns, avoiding European air travel and substitute car ferry or train. Google and suchlike for restaurants and Waze on the iPad for navigation. If you are not time poor, such an approach is pretty economical compared to say staying in Australia and visiting Broome, Port Douglas or Hamilton Is.

When we look at it overall, two economy tickets with Vietnam Airlines and a couple of nights in Vietnam each way to break the jet lag plus the travel methods mentioned above are pretty good value compared to any Australian destinations. I remember the bad old days - when Qantas had virtual mono poly rights. I did the Melbourne sydney heathrow thing about seven times because I had a homesick British wife. The cost in those days was about $7000 for the three of us. I do not wish to see a return to that pricing (and never Heathrow) if Qantas once again dominated the market. As for domestic travel the charges were astronomical.

.

[Kiwiconehead]

The reality is that Covid19 is showing a lot of businesses how cost effective Skype, Zoom and working from home really is. .

Also showing them the security holes in apps like Zoom.

Company I was working for sent out a specific warning about using Zoom for confidential discussions and the ADF has apparently banned the use of it.

[2theline]

Cutting travel budgets was spruiked post GFC. As soon as companies got back on their feet biz travel took off.

This is nothing like the GFC. Most of the impact back then was centred on the US. China was in a position to cushion the blow. Sure the world felt it but recovery was relatively quick. This time round is much different. No country will be sheltered or spared a financial battering. Yes business travel may eventually rebound but the rebound will be very slow and take many years. What happens in the meantime? Do QF run aircraft around half full, heavily discount prices to fill aircraft or worse still, reduce fleet size? Does AJ focus his attention on JQ which has the ability to offer $50 tickets, as this is where demand sits post Covid? Time will tell.

Instead of drawing similarities to the GFC many financial experts are saying that we should be likening this to the great depression. This will give us a better idea of what things will look like post Covid. One thing is certain, airlines will look very different on the other side of this.

[Lookleft]

Yet during the Great Depression commercial aviation, particularly in the US established itself and flourished. That was at a time when air travel was expensive so if the economists are looking to that period of history for precedent then the future of commercial aviation is not as dismal as some would think.

[Buster Hyman]

Once that happens, expect mandatory vaccination before many countries will allow entry.
Gee, that took me back. Who remembers all the shots you used to have to get before you could travel OS?

[Sunfish]

Who remembers all the shots you used to have to get before you could travel OS?

I may even have my yellow international health certificate book somewhere.

[Buster Hyman]

I may even have my yellow international health certificate book somewhere.
:ok: I know I've still got that TB scar!

[210Terry]

Getting back on topic re Jetstar. The companies QF owns less than 49% of, I can see them exiting (Jetstar Pacific, Jetstar Japan, etc). As for Jetstar NZ, there's also a good chance of JQ exiting that and transferring those aircraft back to Australian Domestic/Trans-Tasman runs. JQ has already exited regional NZ operations and transferred those aircraft back to QFLink.

Assuming that SIA doesn't have a 4th attempt at the Australian domestic market, I could see QF exiting 3K (Jetstar Asia) being a possibility by selling their 49% stake to another company.

Either way, JQi in Australia is a good chance of being decimated if not folded up entirely. A post COVID-19 JQ-i could have their international flying reduced to just Trans-Tasman, Fiji and Bali "bogan-bus" flying with A320neos and A321LRs, whilst exiting long-haul completely with the 788 fleet transferred to QF mainline.

They exited regional because there isn't enough work in NZ for two regional carriers. You're joking right? Why would they pull their NZ jet operation? ANZ is already weakened their position in NZ. Now would be a good time to capitalize on that. If things really start looking bad towards 12 months and most of their cash burnt through they will sell off 3K (vietnam) and JQ japan.

[normanton]

I add this comment as input to discussion of the future. If Virgin folds and there is no effective competition to jetstar, then I would expect the Qantas group to strangle the Australian tourist industry. Australia is borderline tourism competitive now(pre covid) there MUST be a competitive travel market or Qantas/Jetstar will just increase prices.

So far for our cancelled winter travel to Europe, we have recovered our airfares and cancelled our accommodation bookings with a loss to date of around $600. The yacht charter in Croatia was moved forward a year at no charge. The italian ferry company is supposedly bankrupt so no refund there.

The saddest part is that we had just perfected our holiday travel methods; A very small car, AirBnB in small towns, avoiding European air travel and substitute car ferry or train. Google and suchlike for restaurants and Waze on the iPad for navigation. If you are not time poor, such an approach is pretty economical compared to say staying in Australia and visiting Broome, Port Douglas or Hamilton Is.

When we look at it overall, two economy tickets with Vietnam Airlines and a couple of nights in Vietnam each way to break the jet lag plus the travel methods mentioned above are pretty good value compared to any Australian destinations. I remember the bad old days - when Qantas had virtual mono poly rights. I did the Melbourne sydney heathrow thing about seven times because I had a homesick British wife. The cost in those days was about $7000 for the three of us. I do not wish to see a return to that pricing (and never Heathrow) if Qantas once again dominated the market. As for domestic travel the charges were astronomical.

Yes Sunfish we get it. You hate Qantas. You would prefer to spend your money flying Wuhan Airlines on your overseas adventure, then spend a single $ at Qantas.

I'm sure Qantas doesn't miss you. You would be one of those passengers with a 'history' in the system. The cabin crew would know all about you, right down to when you whinged about being forced to sit next to a fat person, or how your economy meal wasn't up to standard.

Jetstar is here to stay. The cheap fares available 12 months in advance are here to stay. You know why? Because peoples plans change 12 months out, and Jetstar make a killing on no shows. If you think Jetstar prices will go up overnight you are a moron. As if Allan would give any foreign carrier a chance of setting up shop. Jetstar will remain where it is, as it still serves a purpose.

I may even have my yellow international health certificate book somewhere.
If you actually knew anything about aviation outside of Australia, you would know that foreign crew still carry it.

[Ragnor]

Jetstar is here to stay. The cheap fares available 12 months in advance are here to stay. You know why? Because peoples plans change 12 years out, and Jetstar make a killing on no shows. If you think Jetstar prices will go up overnight you are a moron. As if Allan would give any foreign carrier a chance of setting up shop. Jetstar will remain where it is.

Well I do agree with this, however the days of $50 return tickets to where ever will be gone for a few yrs, rightly so!

I hear certain radio personalities, Government ppl etc demanding SM step in and pay up to keep fares fair! Well someone needs to tell those ppl prices will go up after this we need to pay the debt back somehow. If SM comes to the party how else will VA pay back the debt! Not by lowering ticket prices that’s for sure.

VA will survive not as an Airline not with 330s,777 and the 70 737s. This will be JQ new competition, stopping a reformed VA from growing.

[novice110]

Questions for anyone in the know.....?

Is there a minimum staffing level from a regulatory point of view to keep an AOC going ?

I hear J* and QF are still running very limited domestic flights. Is it not possible to completely hibernate one of them for a few months ?

Surely one of them could handle any increase when it comes, and the other could be woken up at the end of the year / next year?

Thx

[mattyj]

Questions for anyone in the know.....?

Is there a minimum staffing level from a regulatory point of view to keep an AOC going ?

I hear J* and QF are still running very limited domestic flights. Is it not possible to completely hibernate one of them for a few months ?

Surely one of them could handle any increase when it comes, and the other could be woken up at the end of the year / next year?

Thx

stop it! That’s sensible talk you’re makin’ ...CASA will have you shot!

[Going Boeing]

I hear certain radio personalities, Government ppl etc demanding SM step in and pay up to keep fares fair! Well someone needs to tell those ppl prices will go up after this we need to pay the debt back somehow. If SM comes to the party how else will VA pay back the debt! Not by lowering ticket prices that’s for sure.

It’s not SM’s money to stump up, it’s tax payers. If tax payer money is used to bail out Virgin, the government has to have a fairly good chance of recovering it.

I want Virgin to survive but not at massive tax payer expense.

[Ragnor]

I want VA to survive as much as the next person, I am not in favour of $1.4B of tax payer money given to them as a loan, has anyone figured out how they would pay it back?! $1.4B should be given to the industry not a single business.

[NzCaptainAndrew]

Any news on JQ EBA? Pay freeze? Pay cuts?

[novice110]

Have heard 9% pay cut is already baked in due to the expired EBA ?

[PoppaJo]

Unfortunately VA won’t survive, too high cost base.
You living on mars?

[Kickstarter]

it appears to me, QF are going to use JQ to try to combat lower cost Rex & new VA domestically & think JQ might ramp up trans-tasman before VA starts flying internationally

[Ollie Onion]

VA have already announced a number of Tasman services ex-OZ starting on 31 March. As for the EBA, most Jetstar pilots have already taken a 50% paycut this year. Joyce has said that whatever Virgin secures is what he will be looking for across the Qantas Group, I see Virgin have basically locked in a pay freeze. So for Jetstar the 50% pay cut and then a pay freeze for the next EBA will then say the Company 3% rises compounding.

[NzCaptainAndrew]

VA have already announced a number of Tasman services ex-OZ starting on 31 March. As for the EBA, most Jetstar pilots have already taken a 50% paycut this year. Joyce has said that whatever Virgin secures is what he will be looking for across the Qantas Group, I see Virgin have basically locked in a pay freeze. So for Jetstar the 50% pay cut and then a pay freeze for the next EBA will then say the Company 3% rises compounding.
50% cut to base?

[Roj approved]

50% cut to base?

I think Ollie is referring to the fact that the majority of JQ pilots have been stood down for most of the year and will therefore not earn base wage. Jobkeeper was $3000/month, dropping to $2200/month, so if you didn't work for 9 months, you will likely earn about 50% of base wage.

That is still better than redundancy or Stand down without pay.

[PoppaJo]

You will be cutting yourself to be paid less than a Rex pilot to the idiots that even contemplate it. It’s bad enough Rex used Jetstar as a pawn in determining how to craft it’s own pay scales, looking at the worst paid then taking 10% off it!

Nearly 2 decades in operation and you want to earn less than some new startup who had not even launched yet?

Nothing to cut. They have saved enough over the years as it.

[Ragnor]

I would actually be surprised if Rex even launch their 737 operation in March now. They will surely not fly it empty. Maybe ADL-PPH for the inaugural.

[NzCaptainAndrew]

Have heard 9% pay cut is already baked in due to the expired EBA ?
Is this true?

[minigundiplomat]

Flew VA yesterday.

Nothing worked; it was like Ryanair with red uniforms - their core will drift elsewhere.

[Icarus2001]

Have heard 9% pay cut is already baked in due to the expired EBA ?

An ENTERPRISE AGREEMENT remains in force after its' expiry date until a new agreement is approved or it is otherwise terminated by the FWC.

https://www.fwc.gov.au/enterprise-agreements-benchbook/content-enterprise-agreement/nominal-expiry-date#:~:text=Agreements%20continue%20to%20operate%20after,af ter%20the%20nominal%20expiry%20date.

SO MUCH MISINFORMATION, do some research.

[novice110]

Yes remains in force. However no pay increases since expiry ?

3% + 3% + 3% = 9%

[NzCaptainAndrew]

An ENTERPRISE AGREEMENT remains in force after its' expiry date until a new agreement is approved or it is otherwise terminated by the FWC.

https://www.fwc.gov.au/enterprise-agreements-benchbook/content-enterprise-agreement/nominal-expiry-date#:~:text=Agreements%20continue%20to%20operate%20after,af ter%20the%20nominal%20expiry%20date.

SO MUCH MISINFORMATION, do some research.

so does this mean they have permanently lost 9%?

[Ragnor]

They won’t even contemplate looking at an EBA until 100% of schedule is reached domestic and international and for some time. So it could be 18% by the end of it at least.

[wheels_down]

A321N, +50 extra bodies (could go 244), is the future fleet. Pay should reflect that change in workload also.

[Global Aviator]

A321N, +50 extra bodies (could go 244), is the future fleet. Pay should reflect that change in workload also.

Not being a smart arse here. What extra workload for pilots with +50 bodies?

Certainly take a little longer to load/ unload the SLF.

Also you can certainly fly a little longer so no doubt more overnights.

[Ragnor]

321N still classified as a NB aircraft so I’m not expecting anything. More overnights... yes please I want that I don’t want to do the daily grind in SY traffic and high toll prices.

[Bula]

Workload, no. Responsibility yes. They’re asking us to increase our responsibility of our day to day by 12%.

anyway, this is a conversation for another time. Let’s focus on getting people their livelihoods back.

[Fujiroll76]

Noticed the JQ 787 sim was going the other day.

Is this just a recency thing or something in the works for these guys?

[Buster Hyman]

Noticed the JQ 787 sim was going the other day.

Is this just a recency thing or something in the works for these guys?
Same people that are taking the parked ones out for an occasional spin round the block from AVV I'd imagine.

[Ollie Onion]

Are you serious saying that you should get paid more for flying an A321N?

[John Citizen]

Are you serious saying that you should get paid more for flying an A321N?


Did Qantas seriously pay their pilots more to fly a B747-400 compared to the classic?

[NzCaptainAndrew]

Are you serious saying that you should get paid more for flying an A321N?
Probably a good thing if the guys are already 9% and more down on pay.

[wheels_down]

Are you serious saying that you should get paid more for flying an A321N?
What I’m saying is your workload is increasing, your company is squeezing more out of you, your responsibility is increasing, but your pay is either flat or heading backwards, and is way off where it should be. This is a Jetstar specific issue, Virgin pilots are paid significantly more than you (well on the current EBA) so I wouldn’t expect any allowances for the MAX10.

Overall base should take into account, half a fleet of 244 seaters. I’d argue your base isn’t even reflective of a 180 seat machine let alone something bigger. Your way behind. The Jetstar base isn’t a competitive offer vs what is on offer out in the western world. It’s one of those, do more for less Agreements. I do give you lot credit though for trying to change that during recent negotiations, it’s certainly no trade secret, that the current deal is poor.

[MacTrim]

...and JetStars pay will tied to NETWORKs F100 pay as it introduces its A320 service coast to coast... been happening since ‘93 when the NJS BAE146 was brought in to parasite the mainline B737 operation , AJ is finally bringing Dixon’s grand plan to its final conclusion thanks to a worldwide pandemic... I hope that at least a skeleton B737 service will continue operations to keep all the mainline pilots heads above water , but JetStar has been parasiting their flying for years.

[Going Boeing]

Did Qantas seriously pay their pilots more to fly a B747-400 compared to the classic?

The hourly rate was a few % higher on the B744 compared to the classic B747. The pilots were taking on some of the duties previously performed by the Flight Engineer although the recording of parameters was performed by onboard systems.

[LH777]

If you're negotiating with the company then I wouldn't look at it from a "we're working harder" point of view I'd push the increased productivity point of view - speak $$$$ - their language.

[neville_nobody]

If you're negotiating with the company then I wouldn't look at it from a "we're working harder" point of view I'd push the increased productivity point of view - speak $$$$ - their language.

Yes generally you get paid for what you carry rather than how much you fly. However management these days just make up whatever theory that suits their narrative.

You can bet your house though that if they introduced a smaller aircraft then they will be asking for a lower salary. It just doesn't suit them that pilots of a 30% bigger aircraft should get paid more.

[ROH111]

For the ones claiming you should be paid more to fly the A321...

i guess you’ll be happy to take a pay cut when the A319’s arrive... less responsibility... less pay

[John Citizen]

i guess you’ll be happy to take a pay cut when the A319’s arrive... less responsibility... less pay


Since when were any A319's ever coming? :ugh:

[neville_nobody]

For the ones claiming you should be paid more to fly the A321...

i guess you’ll be happy to take a pay cut when the A319’s arrive... less responsibility... less pay

You renegotiate the contract to have a A319-A321 rates. Thats how the US airlines do it. It's a bit of freebie to the company to carry 30% more for free.

[John Citizen]

Once again, why renegotiate A319 rates if there aren't any?

Why not just include everything down to a C152 for a much lower rate if you want to be stupid?
​​​​​​


​​​

[Buster Hyman]

Since when were any A319's ever coming? :ugh:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/300x200/9469c2cf287d3120396d5060b1953286_49dec0cd11c78fa00f3cb0d9ea2 ec032f6174e21.gif

[Trevor the lover]

Spot on Buster. Though probably they've missed your point too.

[krismiler]

Do B787 pilots get paid more than the A320 pilots on the basis that it is a larger aircraft ? That would tend to support the argument for a pay increase.

However, does a B787-10 pilot get more than a B787-8 pilot ? That would tend to counter the argument.

Unfortunately, there is enough commonality between the A320 and A321 for management to claim that it’s simply a variation and not a different type. A320 to A330 would be a different matter.

[PoppaJo]

Delta Captain 5 years. 900hrs

A319/20- $217 usd
A321- $227k usd

763- $233k
764- 265k

[krismiler]

Legacy airline with a strong union, no comparison. :(

[Climb150]

Legacy airline with a strong union, no comparison. :(
I don't think it's the amount that is the subject. Pay rates in USA are heavily based on weight and aircraft complexity.

[krismiler]

Pay rates in USA are heavily based on weight and aircraft complexity.

It's probably because of the strong union that they have the extra pay for the slightly larger varients. An extra $32k when going from a B763 to a B764 is a major increase.

[Transition Layer]

Closer to home, once upon a time the QF SH award saw pilots operating the B734 (approx 140 seats) and B738 (approx 170 seats) for the same pay rates.

[Kenny]

Delta Captain 5 years. 900hrs

A319/20- $217 usd
A321- $227k usd

763- $233k
764- 265k

I understand your point with weight/size/seats vs pay but it’s probably worth pointing out, for a fairer picture, that those figures would be the absolute minimum. They don’t take into account all the additional pay due to “soft pay” clauses in the DAL contract and certainly not the US equivalent of super contributions or for that matter, profit sharing payments. The average PS in 2019 was probably around $30-40k, across the entire pilot group. Not that anyone will be getting PS for a long time to come.

[Climb150]

Also, there is no way on earth a Delta 767 Capt will fly 900 hours a year.

[C441]

Delta Captain 5 years. 900hrs
A319/20- $217 usd
A321- $227k usd
763- $233k
764- 265k
Is that per hour or thousand per annum - not that there's a lot of difference unless they're doing a lot less than 900 hours?

[PoppaJo]

Is that per hour or thousand per annum - not that there's a lot of difference unless they're doing a lot less than 900 hours?
Per year. Excluding all the allowances.

Probably works better for FOs who still have the same sort of pay jump at the lower base.

Delta Pilots have had significant increases over the last few years, more than most others, and at a rate that AJ would go into cardiac arrest if he had a glance at some of the increases.

But yes, it’s a fairytale down under, forget it.

[neville_nobody]

Not sure where these figures are coming from as US Airlines generally get paid per flight hour.

The latest pay table for Delta: https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/legacy/delta_air_lines

If you want a US LCC comparison go look at the Spirit figures here:
https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/major-national-lcc/spirit_airlines

Even Spirit manage to pay a little bit extra for flying the A321!!:rolleyes:

[wheels_down]

Even Spirit manage to pay a little bit extra for flying the A321!!:rolleyes:
Spirit pays more than Jetstar full stop.

[Lookleft]

Would anyone really want to work to the US airline system? Your pay and pension (superannuation) can be cut at anytime and the furlough provisions make our current standowns look like a short break. It doesn't really matter what they are getting paid lets look at their conditions under which they work. Personally I would not want to be facing a standown everytime the economy had a hiccup.

[Pundit]

Surely this is the time to focus on getting back to work and seeing the economy and tourism working. It is EBA time!

[Lookleft]

EBA time was December 2019.

[Paragraph377]

Had to laugh watching newly anointed COO fookin Gerry Turner speaking dribble on his latest YouTube clip. He is really starting to look like a small Peter Garrett. But to his credit, always cheery and smiling. I guess I would too if I had Uncle Alan looking after me for all these years making sure I get paid top dollar to do nothing spectacular. It’s good to be the king.

[wheels_down]

Had to laugh watching newly anointed COO fookin Gerry Turner speaking dribble on his latest YouTube clip. He is really starting to look like a small Peter Garrett. But to his credit, always cheery and smiling. I guess I would too if I had Uncle Alan looking after me for all these years making sure I get paid top dollar to do nothing spectacular. It’s good to be the king.
Was half expecting him to appear over at Virgin however it appears he has it too good so I guess not.

[Paragraph377]

Was half expecting him to appear over at Virgin however it appears he has it too good so I guess not.
Anything is possible. While Alan is at Qantas Gerry will always have a wing to hide beneath. Mates rates runs very strong with Alan. If Alan ever leaves, then Gerrys lifeline will be gone and he would eventually follow Alan to another airline or somebody like Jayne would pick him up. It’s one big club and none of you are invited!

[Ragnor]

Will the new COO be any good?

[wheels_down]

Anything is possible. While Alan is at Qantas Gerry will always have a wing to hide beneath. Mates rates runs very strong with Alan. If Alan ever leaves, then Gerrys lifeline will be gone and he would eventually follow Alan to another airline or somebody like Jayne would pick him up. It’s one big club and none of you are invited!
I sort of figured if he didn’t pull him back down under, she most certainly would have. Looks like he moved first.

I am sure Jayne will find someone else in ops to plant in Brisbane.

[Paragraph377]

I sort of figured if he didn’t pull him back down under, she most certainly would have. Looks like he moved first.

I am sure Jayne will find someone else in ops to plant in Brisbane.

Agreed. The initials JC come to mind. And that’s not Jesus Christ.

[Kenny]

Would anyone really want to work to the US airline system? Your pay and pension (superannuation) can be cut at anytime and the furlough provisions make our current standowns look like a short break. It doesn't really matter what they are getting paid lets look at their conditions under which they work. Personally I would not want to be facing a standown everytime the economy had a hiccup.

Not just yes but f#ck yes. My last full year with Virgin I got paid AU$150k as a 5th year 73 FO. My tax summary for 2019 after 4 years with United was for US$230k as a 75/76FO. Flew about 600’ish hours. That’s just the pay. The work rules that I work under are iron clad and protected by ALPA in a way VIPA and the Feds couldn’t even begin to match.

I had about AU$70k in a super with the 9% Virgin put in by the time I left. I have US$570k in my US 401k after 5 years with United. They put in 16% and I add 10%. The conditions weren't bad at Virgin but they’re far better at United.

Oh and when I go to training, it’s a pleasure. The complete opposite at Virgin. In fact, I’d never been screamed at in 15 years as a commercial pilot, in the sim, until I experienced Virgin. It was an eye opening experience.

Not a d!ck swinging exercise but you made a statement without knowing the facts.

[Paragraph377]

Oh and when I go to training, it’s a pleasure. The complete opposite at Virgin. In fact, I’d never been screamed at in 15 years as a commercial pilot, in the sim, until I experienced Virgin. It was an eye opening experience.
Mr Ansett Trevor ‘TJ’ Jensen and former CASA DAS and Cathay zealot John ‘screaming skull’ McCormick set the bar for screaming angry, outbursts. And not in the SIM, try the live flight deck!!

[Lookleft]

Kenny you have obviously done very well by getting into United at the start of first airlines golden age of the 21st century. I would be interested in hearing what you have to say after the next 5 years. I have never operated in the US but there is plenty of information about the US system. I reckon this bloke had a good idea of a career in the US: "Since September 11 2001, the airline industry has been ailing, and as a result of cutbacks, I've lost 40 percent of my salary. Meanwhile, the US Airways pension I thought I could count on was terminated in 2004, and a government-backed replacement plan is a very weak substitute."

So make hay while the sunshines, as history shows that you will face lean times and many disruptions in your career with United.

[Kenny]

Lookleft,

This is a JQ thread and I don’t want to derail it but quickly....

I'm not under any illusion that it’s all rainbows and unicorns; I’m not a millennial and I just celebrated my 21st year in this wondrously glamorous career but your view, respectfully, is clouded by events of 20 years ago. It’s a view that many who haven’t worked here have and I do understand why.

US aviation was a very different animal in the years leading up to and post 9-11. The legacies had been mismanaged in an almost criminal way for years and 9-11 was the proverbial straw. I was here during that time and I’ve had many 2am chats somewhere over the Atlantic about it with guys that are are trying to make up for it, so I’m very aware of the pain that that time caused. Your quote is by a US airways pilot. A group that couldn’t have been more affected by what happened during that time and lost pretty much everything, not least pay and then seniority with a merger they tried to fight. For them it was the perfect storm of pain.

The legacies are now run by a very different breed and at least here, they do seem to have learnt from the past. Certainly from what I’ve seen and had the current sh!tstorm not happened, I think they would have continued on the path of constant improvement.

The question I responded to was “would you want to work in US aviation”. My reply was looking through the lenses of post 2010, pre Covid-19 and yet mindful of the events of 20 years ago. It obviously wasn’t the place to be before then because I went through the nightmare of moving thousands of miles and starting at a new airline on a different continent. Had it not changed, I wouldn’t have then gone through that same nightmare again but for me, it was more about the pension and that I could afford to live where I wanted to, rather than where I could simply afford to. It should be pointed out that pensions are no longer controlled by the airlines.

I've always approached a job here, with the mindset that it could all disappear in a heartbeat but the irony is, had I stayed in Oz I would be out of a job and probably not have a roof over my head. I don’t have a McMansion, while german my cars aren’t brand new and I’m a bit OCD with saving money for a rainy day, so at this point I could be out of work for two years and still pay all the bills. I am extremely lucky, I know that and I speak weekly to my mates at VA, so I’m acutely aware of what an absolute nightmare it is downunder at the moment.

That’s the professional viewpoint. From a personal point of view, of course I wish I could bring my kids up in Oz or Euroland but it would come at a huge financial cost that I don’t have the years for. Hopefully, we all make the best decisions we can, considering all the information we have. As you said, the next 5 years will be interesting.

Now back to JQ and apologies for the thread drift.

[Lookleft]

Thanks Kenny for giving us the context of your earlier post. I hope you continue to do well over there. BTW the quote I gave was from Chesney Sullenberger. Back to the topic Jetstar will always be a place that you work hard and get paid well by community standards. As for its future I think it will devolve to a NB fleet that serves domestic and short range international leisure destinations. At the moment in Oz the most secure place to be is a NB pilot within the QF Group.

[PoppaJo]

Come back in 5 years!

[MelbourneFlyer]

Jetstar's Boeing 787s fly into extended storage at Alice Springs: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/jetstar-787-storage-alice-springs

[ManillaChillaDilla]

The word is external recruiting will soon start.

MCD

[Ollie Onion]

Yep, starting to have a genuine squeeze on 320 pilots, 787 starting back soon with some domestic runs, multiple cabin crew courses now running. Aircraft deliveries to restart soon as well, it will not be long before a few externals are required.

[ManillaChillaDilla]

The issue being that 787 pilots are mostly still stood down without pay. Management excepted of course.

Recruiting outside the current pilot group while this is the case will certainly be a test for the unions. Noting that every 787 pilot except for SOs is type rated on the 320.

Shades of the late 80s.

MCD.

[wheels_down]

They will pick up the Tiger share which at one point hit 18 aircraft so significant market share available.

More aircraft coming from Japan and Singas it seems.

[SHVC]

With the majority of 787 guys stood down, while hard for them, but , do they think they’re entitled to be trained on the 320 (most will need full type ratings again) then in12months time be entitled to go back to the 787 because their seniority allows it.

If JQ were to train them, I think it would only be fair on the company given the enormity of cost in training they agree it’s a one way ticket back to 320 or pay full cost of the 320 training and being re trained on 787

[aussieflyboy]

A bit of PIA should help get the ball rolling with the EA Negotiation.

Remember that bottle of milk down the shops will cost you an extra 2.5% this year but your pay will stay the same...

[t_cas]

With the majority of 787 guys stood down, while hard for them, but , do they think they’re entitled to be trained on the 320 (most will need full type ratings again) then in12months time be entitled to go back to the 787 because their seniority allows it.

If JQ were to train them, I think it would only be fair on the company given the enormity of cost in training they agree it’s a one way ticket back to 320 or pay full cost of the 320 training and being re trained on 787


From the perspective of the company, it would be cheaper to down train senior pilots and retrench last on. The costs of redundancy for long serving employees is high.
The cannibalism being displayed in the Australian aviation industrial landscape is pitiful. It is like watching Game of Thrones.

[ManillaChillaDilla]

SHVC I think you may have illustrated perfectly in your post the mindset that has plagued this industry for decades now.

I cant remember anyone suggesting that " Entitlement " was a factor. To even suggest that now really speaks as to the quality of your character.

Not a good look at all, but a sadly relevant window to the bigger problems faced by many innocent parties left stranded on Stand down Island.

People simply trying to put food on the table.


MCD

[SHVC]

My point was, do the 78 crew think the company should be paying to down train from 78 to 320. Then when the 78 starts back up be expected to go back to the 78 at the companys expense?! I don’t believe the company should be liable for these cost.

Covid is a **** sandwich for everyone I know I’ve been dealt a $hit sandwich also.


Stand down Vs Redundant I know which I’d prefer, I’m putting food on the table via other means now.

[wheels_down]

1/4 of the 78 Fleet was put up ‘EOI’ For Sale pre COVID. Whilst that might not be needed while we cycle through some heavy local demand in the short term, that day will probably return again in the medium to long term.

I would be getting off that fleet type while the opportunity is there. For those facing retirement this decade in the left seat on the big girl, might as well just sit still.

[John Citizen]

From the perspective of the company, it would be cheaper to down train senior pilots and retrench last on.


Maybe not.

If senior pilots are down trained, then so is everyone else who is displaced by these senior pilots taking their position.

100 senior wide body pilots being down trained and displacing 100 narrow body pilots means a total of 200 pilots to train.

Plus what happens when the wide body positions return?

These senior pilots will now need to be retrained to fly the wide body again, plus other pilots will need to be retrained to fill the vacated positions on the narrow body.

[t_cas]

Maybe not.

If senior pilots are down trained, then so is everyone else who is displaced by these senior pilots taking their position.

100 senior wide body pilots being down trained and displacing 100 narrow body pilots means a total of 200 pilots to train.

Plus what happens when the wide body positions return?

These senior pilots will now need to be retrained to fly the wide body again, plus other pilots will need to be retrained to fill the vacated positions on the narrow body.


i don’t think you have thought this through.

[nvfr]

So Jetstar Australia are looking at recruiting yet across the Tasman they have screwed the NZ Pilots who are all sitting around do sweet f all flying and getting paid about 40% of what they normally do. Sounds fair!!!

[j3pipercub]

So Jetstar Australia are looking at recruiting yet across the Tasman they have screwed the NZ Pilots who are all sitting around do sweet f all flying and getting paid about 40% of what they normally do. Sounds fair!!!

Well, it is an Australian company firstly and secondly, has your domestic market recovered to the extent of Australia's without international tourism?

Should QF have gone down the path of VANZ and wound up JQNZ completely?

[Mail-man]

Not comparable to VANZ as they didn’t operate domestically. I think the nz domestic market is taking more time due to lack of intl tourism but that seems like a great opportunity to utilise nz based crews to plug gaps in Australia. Just like they used Aussie crews to plug gaps in nz in the before times....

[Ollie Onion]

Watch this space, NZ crews will be overnighting in Australia shortly to fly some Tasman services which can only originate in OZ due to aircraft shortage in NZ. Aircraft can't be moved to NZ due to the massive subsidised services being operated domestically in OZ and the capacity war underway there. I know it stinks but the NZ domestic market has not recovered to anywhere near the extent of Australia due to the Jacinda Fairy not bestowing any support to the domestic travel or tourism sector, it as simple as that.

[goodonyamate]

So Jetstar Australia are looking at recruiting yet across the Tasman they have screwed the NZ Pilots who are all sitting around do sweet f all flying and getting paid about 40% of what they normally do. Sounds fair!!!

oh dear me.

[kev2002]

Watch this space, NZ crews will be overnighting in Australia shortly to fly some Tasman services which can only originate in OZ due to aircraft shortage in NZ. Aircraft can't be moved to NZ due to the massive subsidised services being operated domestically in OZ and the capacity war underway there. I know it stinks but the NZ domestic market has not recovered to anywhere near the extent of Australia due to the Jacinda Fairy not bestowing any support to the domestic travel or tourism sector, it as simple as that.

Really? Foran says AIRNZ domestic at 85% of pre-Covid levels and the domestic market in NZ kicked off again before Oz’s

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

So Jetstar Australia are looking at recruiting yet across the Tasman they have screwed the NZ Pilots who are all sitting around do sweet f all flying and getting paid about 40% of what they normally do. Sounds fair!!!

Given what plenty of Australian pilots have been getting paid (and in some cases may be for the next couple of years), you’d best keep quiet about your 40% or you might find you’re getting hit up for a loan.

[John Citizen]

I don’t think you have thought this through.


Very nice counter argument.

I just can't argue against your thorough explanation how it won't be otherwise.

[morno]

So Jetstar Australia are looking at recruiting yet across the Tasman they have screwed the NZ Pilots who are all sitting around do sweet f all flying and getting paid about 40% of what they normally do. Sounds fair!!!

Cry me a river

[WillieTheWimp]

Getting paid 40% to do "sweet f all flying" sounds pretty fair to me.

[Wear the Foxhat]

Maybe not.

If senior pilots are down trained, then so is everyone else who is displaced by these senior pilots taking their position.

100 senior wide body pilots being down trained and displacing 100 narrow body pilots means a total of 200 pilots to train.

If 100 senior wide body pilots displace 100 narrow body pilots, what training does this trigger for narrow body pilots? Aren't they out the door? The only reason 100 senior wide body pilots get to displace narrow body pilots is if there is redundancy. Therefore your math is wrong.


Plus what happens when the wide body positions return?

These senior pilots will now need to be retrained to fly the wide body again, plus other pilots will need to be retrained to fill the vacated positions on the narrow body.

If the company makes redundancy on the wide body, I don’t think you need to worry about what happens when the wide body positions return, I’d be asking if the wide body positions ever return.

[Wear the Foxhat]

So Jetstar Australia are looking at recruiting yet across the Tasman they have screwed the NZ Pilots who are all sitting around do sweet f all flying and getting paid about 40% of what they normally do. Sounds fair!!!

Did Jetstar screw the NZ Pilots, or did the NZ pilots screw themselves? I thought the NZ pilots agreed to a EBA variation to casualise themselves and give themselves a pay cut. You can hardly blame Jetstar for being exploitative ruthless pricks, particularly when NZ pilots agreed to it!! Jetstar have proven time and time again what type of people they are. The scorpion and the frog fable comes to mind.

Jetstar Australia are still screwing plenty of Australian based EBA pilots.

[Ollie Onion]

Really? Foran says AIRNZ domestic at 85% of pre-Covid levels and the domestic market in NZ kicked off again before Oz’s


remind me again where Air NZ’s current funding is coming from, eating $40 million per month out of the Government loan to keep the airline flying is not something that exactly shouts some grand recovery. Just because Air NZ are flying 85% of thier domestic schedule doesn’t mean there is solid demand there without losing money. By the way Jetstar NZ is flying 75% of their precovid schedule....... sadly though they are crewed for 100% domestic with another 2 airframes worth of crew to cover the Tasman. Things will return quickly for the kiwi’s ONCE a Tasman bubble is up and operating, no plans can be announced or schedule crewed until the Pixie in Wellington actually makes a firm announcement. Blame her, not Qantas.

[John Citizen]

If 100 senior wide body pilots displace 100 narrow body pilots, what training does this trigger for narrow body pilots? Aren't they out the door? The only reason 100 senior wide body pilots get to displace narrow body pilots is if there is redundancy. Therefore your math is wrong.

If 100 senior wide body pilots displace 100 narrow body pilots and there is redundancy, some junior narrow body captains will have to be displaced to become an FO, because there will be too many narrow body captains plus many of the junior narrow body FO's will be made redundant and need to be replaced. This is the training. This my maths.

If you retrench the 100 most junior FO's, this means 100 junior captains will have to be retrained to be an FO again.

[nvfr]

Did Jetstar screw the NZ Pilots, or did the NZ pilots screw themselves? I thought the NZ pilots agreed to a EBA variation to casualise themselves and give themselves a pay cut. You can hardly blame Jetstar for being exploitative ruthless pricks, particularly when NZ pilots agreed to it!! Jetstar have proven time and time again what type of people they are. The scorpion and the frog fable comes to mind.

Jetstar Australia are still screwing plenty of Australian based EBA pilots.


agree to this variation or we will make you all redundant is hardly a negotiation and agreement by the pilots

[nvfr]

remind me again where Air NZ’s current funding is coming from, eating $40 million per month out of the Government loan to keep the airline flying is not something that exactly shouts some grand recovery. Just because Air NZ are flying 85% of thier domestic schedule doesn’t mean there is solid demand there without losing money. By the way Jetstar NZ is flying 75% of their precovid schedule....... sadly though they are crewed for 100% domestic with another 2 airframes worth of crew to cover the Tasman. Things will return quickly for the kiwi’s ONCE a Tasman bubble is up and operating, no plans can be announced or schedule crewed until the Pixie in Wellington actually makes a firm announcement. Blame her, not Qantas.


jetstar has come out and told the NZ pilots that Aussie EBA pilots will be flying the Tasman.

[nvfr]

Cry me a river


what a well thought out rebuttal.

[cLeArIcE]

Hell will freeze over before wide body pilots displace narrow body pilots at Jetstar. Their EBA is as clear as mud on the issue. A few SO and FO upgrades might happen but no 787 captain is going to displace a 320 captain. Anyone that thinks JQ will spend money on this is living in dream land.

[Ollie Onion]

jetstar has come out and told the NZ pilots that Aussie EBA pilots will be flying the Tasman.

Thats just not true, Jetstar started on this weeks townhall that the Tasman will be operated 50/50 between NZ and OZ based crew with Jetstar moving most Tasman work back to NZ as aircraft become available. Some Taxman will remain in OZ as EBA Crew we’re doing a proportion of it pre covid so will retain that.

[SHVC]

If you retrench the 100 most junior FO's, this means 100 junior captains will have to be retrained to be an FO again.

JQ EBA is pretty clear, it’s at their discretion if they wish to down train and displace as seniority is “major consideration” this clause could be argued by the unions but they would loose this one. given most 78 crew have used most of, if not not all of their leave and long service making them redundant wouldn’t be all that expensive now.

[morno]

what a well thought out rebuttal.

Mate you’re sitting around on 40% for doing nothing. I know plenty of people sitting around without even a job.

[nvfr]

Mate you’re sitting around on 40% for doing nothing. I know plenty of people sitting around without even a job.
no we aren’t sitting around on 40% doing nothing. Instead of a salary now we are paid on a daily rate when we fly only. Get your facts right before jumping to conclusions.

[nvfr]

Thats just not true, Jetstar started on this weeks townhall that the Tasman will be operated 50/50 between NZ and OZ based crew with Jetstar moving most Tasman work back to NZ as aircraft become available. Some Taxman will remain in OZ as EBA Crew we’re doing a proportion of it pre covid so will retain that.


town halls mean nothing. In negotiations with NZALPA they said 3 aeroplanes have gone back to Australia therefore the Tasman will have to be flown from Australia.

[Ollie Onion]

town halls mean nothing. In negotiations with NZALPA they said 3 aeroplanes have gone back to Australia therefore the Tasman will have to be flown from Australia.

I don’t know what you are reading but the latest update from NZALPA clearly says the Tasman will be flown on a 50/50 split with NZ and EBA pilots. You make it aound like the 3 aircraft were sent to OZ to fly the Tasman, they were not. They were returned to OZ to take advantage of the subsidised domestic market, a decision made assuming a Tasman bubble wasnt coming until the second half of the year. Jacindas about face caught them offguard, the NZ aircraft are due to return as the A320s from Japan arrive.

[morno]

no we aren’t sitting around on 40% doing nothing. Instead of a salary now we are paid on a daily rate when we fly only. Get your facts right before jumping to conclusions.

Are you paid on an NZ EBA? If yes, then I’m not sure as to the legality of you flying routes in Australia.

[nvfr]

Are you paid on an NZ EBA? If yes, then I’m not sure as to the legality of you flying routes in Australia.
We don’t and never have flown routes in Australia. We fly domestic NZ and Tasman. However the Aussie EBA pilots do fly domestic NZ. Particularly when we are negotiating our contract.

[Derfred]

Please be nice, morno.

We are all pilots here.

[ManillaChillaDilla]

Derfred makes a good point.

Pilots fighting amongst themselves and backstabbing their own company collegues is a golden ticket for any modern day airline manager.

Game over when it gets to that poiint.

MCD.

[Ollie Onion]

Derfred makes a good point.

Pilots fighting amongst themselves and backstabbing their own company collegues is a golden ticket for any modern day airline manager.

Game over when it gets to that poiint.

MCD.

mate, it is at that point and has been for years. Jetstar has created groups within groups who would gladly throw others under the bus. It is happening again and again, where were the protests or action from Virgin pilota when Tiger or VAANZ were canned, where are the EBA pilots at Jetstar demanding that NZ Pilots go back to full pay, where are the A320 pilots demanding that 787 pilots get some flying or they will down tools. We dont look after each other anymore, it is each to their own, just donwhat is right for you.

[ManillaChillaDilla]

Ollie,

I am acutely aware of the issues at hand.

That " culture " has been fostered most carefully by experts in the field.

The real point here is that it doesnt have to be that way. It is possible for pilots to work as one for the greater good. The weak link is almost always the character of the induviduals involved.

To give up and give in to that poor example set by many is not a viable or sustainable solution. It will catch up with you somewhere around the world. Guaranteed.

Thats the australian industry unfortunately. It doesnt have to be.

MCD

[PoppaJo]

The real point here is that it doesnt have to be that way. It is possible for pilots to work as one for the greater good. The weak link is almost always the character of the induviduals involved.

The old boys mates for mates clubs in this pathetic carrier and others will sort itself out, once this seemingly entitled generation cycles out.

The future is those, today, in their 20s and 30s. I have hope that they don’t carry all the baggage. They will be better places to work in 20 years. We just need to cut off much of the fat first.

I hate to be horrible but that’s how I see it.

[Lookleft]

That is a very large chip displayed on your shoulder PJ. To paraphrase a well known aviation saying "Not all P%&#@ks are ex-Ansett" People are the same regardless of the airline they came from and some of the F/O's in the 20 and 30 age bracket are no different. If they are the baggage free wunderkinds you are hoping will make for better working places then you are in for a big disappointment.

[cLeArIcE]

The problem with this generation coming through is the same as the previous.
The majority of the good individuals (that would be great managers) have no interest in being a part of management teams.
They just want to fly then go home. Some may like to be involved in check and training etc but, they want the best lives for their family and colleagues, for the least amount of work and stress.
Management positions often attract certain types Of individuals that tend to be incompatible with the wishes of the previous group. The next generation of "managers" won't be any different... Who do you think train's them...

[PoppaJo]

The majority of the good individuals (that would be great managers) have no interest in being a part of management teams.

We need to work on that. I don’t know how, but the chance of stumbling across such a good person who actually wants to be a CP, is probably 1 in 1000. These people get discovered and taken fairly quickly.

[Derfred]

We have IR consultants and beancounters constantly trying to divide and conquer us because history has shown that it works.

That is what is taught at Bain and Boston Consulting, and guess what, they are the people running our IR.

That doesn’t mean we have to take the bait.

No, we can’t down-tools to ensure a B787 pilot keeps their job, or to ensure a NZ pilot gets paid - because that’s how the IR rules are laid down by the government that we voted for.

But we can be nice to each other here.

We can also choose not to shun the pilot from the other subsidiary in the airport, or on a car-park bus. Instead we could say, “G’day, how was your day?”

And we can also choose not to undercut each other - although that one gets very tricky because the Company EA negotiators are well skilled at instilling Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) - straight out of Bain/Boston.

A classic example of how important the IR consultants consider this to be: for many years, QF spent money ensuring that QF mainline and JQ pilots never sat on the same bus together - because they might form friendships. That didn’t suit the agenda.

[blow.n.gasket]

"War is when managers tells you who the enemy is -

Revolution is when you figure it out for yourself".

Apologies to Ayn Rand

[NzCaptainAndrew]

wonder what will happen with the EBA

[Blueskymine]

wonder what will happen with the EBA

Better off to put it on ice and revisit in 12-18 months when the world is ramping up and other airlines are waving cash for qualified crew.

[ManillaChillaDilla]

Given both unions either inability or unwillingness to effect positive change for the JQ pilot group over many years now, you would have to assume that things wont be getting better any time soon.

Personally I think JQ will be used as a test bed to try out blue sky thinking IR ideas within the group. As has been done before. In a COVID safe manner of course.

The symbyotic relationship between unions and companies will only enable this process. All under the guise of " Constructive talks ".

No comms from my union with anything substantive for the last 10 months. Thats a poor investment in my books.

MCD.