Coronavirus- Rostering and Seating Issues

[Rossair]

Coronavirus has created a new problem for airlines to manage:



It seems to me that there could now be at least 6 groups of passengers and crew sharing the air in the confined space of an aircraft.

It is important to distinguish these Groups when seating passengers and rostering crew.



Group A

Persons who have had Coronavirus and who are no longer infectious.

Group B

Persons who have had Coronavirus asymptomatically without realising they had it and who are no longer infectious.

Group C

Persons who currently have Coronavirus asymptomatically and genuinely do not know it but who could infect the people around them.

Group D

Persons who have not yet had Coronavirus and who could become infected with potentially fatal consequences.

Group E

Persons who think they have had Coronavirus because they suffered from Influenza or a similar condition during the Coronavirus pandemic but do not have Coronavirus. They too could become infected

Group F

Persons who are currently suffering from Coronavirus and suspect they are suffering from it but, for different reasons, do not care about infecting others.



This raises some interesting questions:



For example: Should you roster a Group E captain with a Group C first officer?

One problem is that Group E and F persons will probably declare themselves to be in Group A. Another problem is that Group B persons will think are Group C persons.

How do you seat these different groups of passengers?

Do you allow 2 meter spacing ?

Does it matter if you do not know for certain who is in which group?



No doubt the airlines will have robust and carefully designed plans to manage these issues before they resume their flying programmes.

Discuss.

[Herod]

No doubt the airlines will have robust and carefully designed plans to manage these issues before they resume their flying programmes.[/color]]

Always nice to see a bit of humour on this site.:ugh:

[Pistonprop]

I'm curious to know how you think they could manage these issues? For me it's just quite simply a non starter.

[Rt Hon Jim Hacker MP]

I’d call in Sir Humphrey. He could sort this out for you....probably.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyJh3qKjSMk

[MrKipling]

You are kidding surely? Most airlines cant even get people in the seats they have booked.

[bex88]

It’s simple, like swine flue etc the majority of the population will get it at some point. You can’t hide from it forever and for the vast majority it is mild. The measures put in place are to increase the time frame over which the population becomes infected. This allows healthcare systems to put measures in place to cope without being overwhelmed. The airflow through my aircraft type ensures the cabin air is completely replaced every three minutes. There is not much we can do other than be strict with hygiene and aircraft cleaning. Is there a case for restricting load factor? Possibly.

I speak as someone who has a family member who has in all probability had Covid 19. It is not a wild guess either as it was my father who until retirement was a doctor his whole working life. I won’t pretend it is nothing and his symptoms would probably be on the mild to moderate side. Swine flu put him in bed for two days. Covid put him in bed for five days and he continued to feel pretty rough for a good 10-12 days. He had muscle pain, fatigue, a dry cough, loss of smell, loss of taste and a temperature of 37.9 for close on a week. The temperature seemed worse later in the day.

Anyway I forget my point but essentially sensible precautions without throwing ourselves into a health disaster or a global depression.

[Emma Royds]

Ah but you forgot about Group G:

The myriad of individuals that could unknowingly carry the virus that you encounter during a duty such as security staff, dispatchers, engineers and catering staff and frankly, anyone at all that will be within very close proximity to you or has touched something that you later touch yourself. How do we isolate ourselves from those unsuspecting biological villains? :confused:

Do you think those filthy trays at security that you put your iPad and liquids in have ever been cleaned, never mind disinfected?

[Meester proach]

Doesn’t matter, because there won’t t be any airlines left to have this problem at this rate

[VinRouge]

Everyone that doesn’t want to risk, what is for 96%, a mild/moderate dose of flu with a 2-3 week recovery time, stay at home and risk redundancy.

Exceptions for those living with vulnerable people, pilots with vulnerable conditions themselves and pilots of latter generations, aged, doddery, whichever politically incorrect label you choose.

The rest of us, like the rest of the healthy, young population need to crack on and prevent economic collapse of our countries. All this flattening the curve nonsense is doing is creating a situation whereby natural immunity is weakened by the length of time this is being drawn out thereby risking re-infection. I don’t see any vaccination this side of September at the earliest, which will be rightly reserved for Frontline key workers and the vulnerable.

this, despite media protestations, is not Ebola nor the Black Death. Neither are irresponsible medical predictions of 500,000 deaths which seem to have been forgotten coming true. I don’t see a single excel centre bed being used, I think in the wash up, a few doomsaying data modellers are going to have a lot of explaining to do. Some involved are wanting to be scalped by the farming community for having over three times the number of cattle slaughtered than later was determined required to contain foot and mouth.

2.4 Billion a day cost in the U.K.to economic production. That doesn’t include the money the government have increased expenditure by to cover social protection.

[Satoshi Nakamoto]

Also I think the exit from the lock down will be done in phases with some airports open while others remain closed. The government is talking about having corona virus passports for those who can prove they are immune and can return to work. It's going to be a big problem getting staff who are healthy and qualified/current to return to their work.

[sonicbum]

Everyone that doesn’t want to risk, what is for 96%, a mild/moderate dose of flu with a 2-3 week recovery time, stay at home and risk redundancy.

Thanks for the advice and the highly detailed scientific explanation. You must be a Nobel prized highly qualified immunologist to be able to make these kind of statements with what is happening in the world right now.

[VinRouge]

Thanks for the advice and the highly detailed scientific explanation. You must be a Nobel prized highly qualified immunologist to be able to make these kind of statements with what is happening in the world right now.

Nope, just personal experience of having it, my family having it, a load of colleagues having it, my neighbour having it and likely, at least 10% of the U.K. population having it.

of whom, 50% didn’t even know they had it.

check out the Iceland survey results.

[sonicbum]

Nope, just personal experience of having it, my family having it, a load of colleagues having it, my neighbour having it and likely, at least 10% of the U.K. population having it.

of whom, 50% didn’t even know they had it.

check out the Iceland survey results.

I assume You, your relatives and your colleagues got tested for antibodies to ensure you actually got the covid and not the seasonal flu ?

[VinRouge]

I assume You, your relatives and your colleagues got tested for antibodies to ensure you actually got the covid and not the seasonal flu ?
yep, all paid for privately. Plus, I had the seasonal flu jab, with my wife and kids in December. No point in testing with the kids as we knew we had it and it was all over the house. They had very mild symptoms. It’s all over work and all the colleagues I spoke to have had this years flu jab (which we get free as part of our package).

if you get it, you know as the symptoms are distinct enough from flu. Would describe the severity though as mild/moderate flu. It’s not what it is being made out to be for the vast majority of healthy working people will have no issue with this. A damn sight less than the number transplant patients, cancer patients and other people with life threatening disorders will be killed if this nonsense lockdown continues, for healthy working age people.

[Dark Stanley]

Suggest you watch ITV (UK) report, “ Into the red zone”. Trip into Lombardy and in particular Bergamo hospital.
State of the art hospital, completely overwhelmed. Dedicated highly skilled care workers close to exhaustion, not to mention the time bomb of PTSD. But that’s ok, you’ve had it, so it’s not so bad. What is it fake news? Jesus it’s nutters like you that have contributed to the misery that thousands are experiencing because you know better. I’ve always known that the intelligence spread within the pilot community is spread, I just didn’t know it was so thin, or more correctly so dim.....

[wiggy]

I really don't buy into the "it's just a bit of flu" argument but VR has a bit of a point....People very definitely are having treatments for some chronic conditions delayed/postponed because resources are committed to countering CV-19, possibly with life changing results.

BTW Interesting news coming out of France this lunchtime that about 30% of the crew of the Charles de Gaulle have tested positive for CV-19, as I understand it about 20 are in some form of intensive care....The effect of CV-19 on that young healthy population of just under 2000 will no doubt be of interest to the statisticians/epidemiologists..

[VinRouge]

Suggest you watch ITV (UK) report, “ Into the red zone”. Trip into Lombardy and in particular Bergamo hospital.
State of the art hospital, completely overwhelmed. Dedicated highly skilled care workers close to exhaustion, not to mention the time bomb of PTSD. But that’s ok, you’ve had it, so it’s not so bad. What is it fake news? Jesus it’s nutters like you that have contributed to the misery that thousands are experiencing because you know better. I’ve always known that the intelligence spread within the pilot community is spread, I just didn’t know it was so thin, or more correctly so dim.....

Most people dying of it (over 98%) are over 70. Many would have bought the farm in winter if we hadn't had an exceptionally effective flu jab this winter season, meaning lots of vulnerable people were left in the population. The figures for the UK over winter were around 8K down on the normal weekly death stats. The CURRENT Uk weekly death stats currently match the worst flu outbreak in the last 10 years and are nowhere near where we were during the 1957 flu pandemic.

Yet instead of dealing with this rationally, we have decided to put the UK into the worst recession in over 300 years. So please, less reading of irrational media reporting, which seems to have gotten you a little bit excited and a little less lecturing about relative intelligence. You may want to have a look at the impact of a 1% GDP fall on poverty and subsequent life expectancy.

And I didn't mention fake news. My perspective is people need to come to terms that around 0.5% of the global population are going to succumb to this, many of whom would have been on the way out anyway in the next 2-3 years, with the chronic medical conditions that have left them vulnerable to NCov. We shouldnt be succumbing to media driven public hysteria and should be looking instead of the relative impact of our decisions. Sweden for example look as if they are past peak infection and instead of hiding behind the sofa at the 5 O'clock news for the next 6 months, will be through this much quicker than most western countries. With probably a similar total mortality count, compressed into a few months.

We also shouldn't be writing off thousands of Cancer patients and transplant list patients because the sexy disorder of the moment is NCov and Government are so scared of their shadow and criticism, they refuse to take difficult decisions. That in itself is a disgrace. Many of these people are of a working age with much life ahead of them, yet they are being written off to save people in the sunset years.

[152wiseguy]

Most people dying of it (over 98%) are over 70. Many would have bought the farm in winter if we hadn't had an exceptionally effective flu jab this winter season, meaning lots of vulnerable people were left in the population. The figures for the UK over winter were around 8K down on the normal weekly death stats. The CURRENT Uk weekly death stats currently match the worst flu outbreak in the last 10 years and are nowhere near where we were during the 1957 flu pandemic.

Yet instead of dealing with this rationally, we have decided to put the UK into the worst recession in over 300 years. So please, less reading of irrational media reporting, which seems to have gotten you a little bit excited and a little less lecturing about relative intelligence. You may want to have a look at the impact of a 1% GDP fall on poverty and subsequent life expectancy.

And I didn't mention fake news. My perspective is people need to come to terms that around 0.5% of the global population are going to succumb to this, many of whom would have been on the way out anyway in the next 2-3 years, with the chronic medical conditions that have left them vulnerable to NCov. We shouldnt be succumbing to media driven public hysteria and should be looking instead of the relative impact of our decisions. Sweden for example look as if they are past peak infection and instead of hiding behind the sofa at the 5 O'clock news for the next 6 months, will be through this much quicker than most western countries. With probably a similar total mortality count, compressed into a few months.

We also shouldn't be writing off thousands of Cancer patients and transplant list patients because the sexy disorder of the moment is NCov and Government are so scared of their shadow and criticism, they refuse to take difficult decisions. That in itself is a disgrace. Many of these people are of a working age with much life ahead of them, yet they are being written off to save people in the sunset years.

Where do you get your figures from? The weekly death rates published on the news are double of those we'd normally expect at this time of year and they lag the data by a number of days. Given these are the death rates with the lockdown measures in place, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect even higher death rates without any measures? Are you seriously trying to say everything the country has done is unnecessary just because your symptoms were mild?

[DonTrumpet2020]

Emirates Airlines Tests Passengers For COVID-19 Pre-Flight


https://www.forbes.com/sites/lauriewerner/2020/04/15/emirates-airlines-tests-passengers-for-covid-19-pre-flight/

[Dark Stanley]

What you are describing is a state based on the ethics of barbarism, the ultimate end point of capitalism, market value above life, as doomed to failure as any other extreme system. Again look at Bergamo hospital, a more modern facility you won’t find anywhere in the world outside of purely privately funding establishments. Overwhelmed. Do you think they were able to carry out anything other than caring for dying patients. Triage was being practiced, much as you prescribe, didn’t much matter. Coffins being taken out by the military. But hey they’re in their “ sunshine” years. Herd immunity rules....

So, with your new found God authority, what age do you cut of, what criteria do you use, any thing that’s deemed by you as “sexy”? Or maybe now of no further use to society, even after contributing to building the society you now benefit from.

As an example of extremes, there’s you Vin Rouge, and there’s Cpt Tom Moore. 99 years old, raised 14million, but obviously condemned to DNR and useless in the Vin Rouge society of capitalistic judgement. God help us all.,,

[VinRouge]

Where do you get your figures from? The weekly death rates published on the news are double of those we'd normally expect at this time of year and they lag the data by a number of days. Given these are the death rates with the lockdown measures in place, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect even higher death rates without any measures? Are you seriously trying to say everything the country has done is unnecessary just because your symptoms were mild?

I'm saying it was pointless to lock down the economy to the large numbers of people that this virus is a negligible risk. The lockdown should have been totalitarian for those demographics affected and at risk by NCov. Those groups are well known. By locking down the economy to everyone, we are literally burning the economy around us. Instead, the government crapped its pants to the exceptionally poorly managed communications and handling surrounding "Herd Immunity" (utterly the wrong phrase to use). How many over seventies are we still seeing using the supermarket? I counted at least thirty at the last visit. I cannot think of a higher risk area at present than the supermarket (other than a hospital) yet the highest risk groups are still avoiding the advice, refusing assistance and putting themselves at risk. This in turn risks the NHS from being completely inundated with patients requiring lengthy ICU care or death for them and other aged and vulnerable members of their homes. What I am saying is that what the country is doing is an utterly blunt instrument when a more intelligent application of lock down needs to be applied, but to only those at risk of clogging the pipes of the NHS. Exactly what Sweden are doing.

Yes, the figures are double those for this time of year. But this virus has not followed the timelines that the typical respiratory viral outbreak follows. And as a disease that is brand new to humanity, why would it? have a look at the weekly death figures for the past 10 years and have a look at what the typical peak in deaths are during the peak of seasonal flu.

There is significant evidence to suggest that a lot of the additional deaths are due to the fear that mass media and public hysteria has caused, meaning they are staying at home instead of ringing 999 for a suspected heart attack or stroke. A and E attendance is down to 1/3 its normal figure. You need to know what the statistics are saying rather than take them at face value.


Good to see this introduction by Emirates, ultimately sensible and where we will be going as an industry for the next 2 years. Even if a test is only 95% effective, better to have this data than not. 1 in 20 may continue to spread the disease, or there may be false positives, but it keeps things going.

Here is a question for you. How many heart transplants, cancer operations, nurses, schools, small business loans could the tax revenue on the 2.4 billion that we are losing in GDP take a day fund for my kids, your kids and their kids when they need it? Because what we are doing is stealing tomorrow’s money to save today’s problem and it’s a complete abrogation of responsibility of any government in managing a country’s finances.

[wiggy]

How many over seventies are we still seeing using the supermarket? I counted at least thirty at the last visit. I cannot think of a higher risk area at present than the supermarket (other than a hospital) yet the highest risk groups are still avoiding the advice

Happens in other countries outside the UK as well...as long as they agree to "DNR/Do not ventilate" I guess they can carry on:ooh: .............

What I am saying is that what the country is doing is an utterly blunt instrument when a more intelligent application of lock down needs to be applied, but to only those at risk of clogging the pipes of the NHS. Exactly what Sweden are doing.


Ah....I think it's a bit early to claim Sweden has got this right and everybody else has been heavy handed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

[VinRouge]

Happens in other countries outside the UK as well...as long as they agree to "DNR/Do not ventilate" I guess they can carry on:ooh: .............



Ah....I think it's a bit early to claim Sweden has got this right and everybody else has been heavy handed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

ONS data section 7/8 interesting....
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020#covid-19-and-the-overall-mortality-rate-for-march

more and more people seem to think my earlier idea will be used as the means to unlock the country:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8227821/Keeping-locked-cause-deaths-cripple-generation-claims-HUGH-OSMOND.html


Cancer charities now struggling too:https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/long-running-charity-founded-liverpool-18105919

[Rossair]

An acceptable trade off ?



Yes I know that the Lockdown is extremely damaging to the economy and it might seem to be an excessive response to protect the 99% of victims who are very old or who have multiple medical conditions.



But consider this :



Among the remaining 1%, there are thousands of people with very productive lives ahead of them. This includes many highly skilled and experienced healthcare professionals., people that we may all need to depend on one day. They are courageously putting the lives on the line now to treat Coronavirus patients at close quarters.



Most troubling of all is that, as of 15th April, TWENTY SIX public transport workers in London (mainly bus drivers) have also died. They did not have to get as close as clinicians to their customers but they still caught it. If we come off lockdown too early, I fear a second spike which may kill many of our friends, relations and colleagues. Many will be in customer facing roles. Can we really return to ‘normal’ before we have a vaccine? Who will want to work in a customer facing role ? Who would want to go on a plane? What sort of a normal will that be ?



A terrible dilemma.

.

[Dark Stanley]

Quote


more and more people seem to think my earlier idea will be used as the means to unlock the country:

...are you Donald Trump by any chance?

and “You’re idea” was the idea for a primary strategy before the elected political realised that pursuing it would render them unelectable for the foreseeable future. Most of the “ sunshine” expendables have sons, daughters, brothers, sisters, grandchildren etc...

Recently had a report from a healthy fellow crew member, totally outside of Vin Rouges demographic, that had a dose of Covid. Makes for sobering reading. Wondering if Vin R would be so eager to recommend the infection to everyone if his experience had been similar...

[MrKipling]

Vinrouge you make some interesting points. Does the fact that you have had (private testing??) the virus change your point of view?

If you had lost a close young family member and had another plugged into a ventilator would you still be wanting to get back to work so you could maintain what is I presume an expensive lifestyle?

[guy_incognito]

Public sentiment certainly seems to be moving in the direction proposed by Mr. Rouge from what I can see.

[MrKipling]

In what way exactly? Just go back to work and let the NHS get completely overloaded? Maybe they could do the chemo therapy in the car parks.
it's an impossible situation and everyone has a point of view.
If it's just like a normal flu then why are the ICU struggling?

I realise old people die anyhow so maybe someone needs to start making some even more difficult decisions but as aircrew I dont feel we are in full possession of the relevant facts or particularly well qualified to comment.

[VinRouge]

How will ithe NHS be overloaded, when those that are causing 95% of ICU admissions are still on total lockdown? Nationally, we did not get anywhere near ICU overload. It was localised only and the military was ready to step in to use specialist intensive care transport support to move the burden around? If at risk groups stick to lockdown and regular test/contract trace of logistics personnel are established for people supplying them at home, there is no reason why at risk groups will be facing any enhanced risk. If people want to cut out all risk, they need to stay at home 24/7.

FACT - 93% of deaths have chronic healthcare issues.
FACT - 95% are over 75.
FACT - deaths amongst under 50s are less than 1 in a hundred of all deaths. Including those with known chronic conditions.

Id like to see from the limp waisted hang wringers where they suggest the money is coming from to make up the money that is being stolen from my children to pay for this economy destroying shutdown. We aren’t talking reduction in living standards. We are talking about long term damage to the economy with strife inflicted far worse than the impact of NCov.

[[color=#000000]If you had lost a close young family member and had another plugged into a ventilator would you still be wanting to get back to work so you could maintain what is I presume an expensive lifestyle?

have you seen the statistics for the number of under 18s, with no chronic condition who have ended up on ICU or have died? A hysterical Uninformed comment doesn’t stand up to the facts.

i don’t have an expensive lifestyle. I just don’t want this generation stealing even more of my children’s future for no long term goal. If a more stringent lockdown is established for vulnerable and aged, there will be no icu overload, reduced economic catastrophic impact with will mean more of us will maintain recognised living standards than what will happen with the mismanagement currently established.

Ive spent extensive time in Central America and central Africa. I’ve seen what happens when NICE cut the cost of a life from the current 50k to under 50 quid. You can have that, I won’t be taking it. Like others will be happy to take your job as a result of the carnage you are proposing.Watch a 4 year old kid bin pick for their next meal and it will change your perspective. I saw that in Argentina, not a third world country by any stretch. Economically illiterate.

[VinRouge]

I know that facts, better than you I would suspect.

So what do you suggest?

You obviously have all the answers.

I feel sorry for your kids I really do, not because of the future but because you are their father, I presume you are their father (as do you I guess). Do you not get a free test for that too like your Covid 19 test and Flue jab?

I think we all want to get back to work but for me, not at the cost of those like my parents, who paid for the privilege of using the NHS unlike your children.

if they paid for it, where has the cash from North Sea oil gone and why do we have a public debt of over 1.8 trillion? Why are we now spending far less on education, policing and infrastructure and more on pensions and health as a proportion of gdp than any time in modern history? Get gramps and granny locked up. They will then be safe. Also, Give over on childish insults about paternity. It demonstrates your lack of intelligence.

You are going to have to accept that we cannot wrap everyone in cotton wool at a time like this. Our elected grown ups will make those decisions on our behalf in the next 2 weeks. It will be you and not I that has to deal with dislocation of expectation.

[Fly Better!]

I dont know where the cash from the North Sea oil went, we have already established Im not that clever.

So what do you suggest?

[MrKipling]

It seems you are in Germany vinrouge, things are different there to the UK I would suggest.

[VinRouge]

It seems you are in Germany vinrouge, things are different there to the UK I would suggest.
no longer. Came back off from military exchange years ago,

[Dark Stanley]

The suggested return to normalisation I’m afraid isn’t an option. What are you trying to preserve for your children? That’s an open question for us all.

A continuation of our current life style choices and way of life will eventually just guarantee a repeat of the current situation. Capitalism only survives with continuous growth, expansion, consumption, market value rules over life. Continual encroachment of pristine rain Forrest, loss of habitat pushing species ever closer together making cross contamination of pathogens ever more likely. It’s nothing new, Jesus even Hollywood managed to predict it 5 years ago.Can you imagine a pathogen with the same incubation period as Covid19, with the mortality rate of MERS? Most of the time a virus will mutate to a less potent state, Ebola has several strains.....if you want to sleep well don’t search for what the worst does...

We need less consumption, less drive for efficiency, less drive for expansion. There are amazingly a myriad of jobs that are literally unneeded, created and sustained to support the system, a bit lit Ryanair putting an airframe on a route that never previously existed, but make it cheap enough and they will come.
I don’t have the answers, I’m not clever enough, but I do know what we’ve got isn’t...

So maybe we don’t need to throw our elderly parents under the bus in the name of a short term return to normality...maybe we need to accept that we’ve got it wrong, and if we don’t our children won’t have any future at all, let alone one that is less than we’d all hoped for....

[Fly Better!]

Its not just the elderly. What about my friends 16 year old diabetic son, young parents with MS.

It is an incredibly difficult situation for everyone. Personally I would rather do without (I have done before) and keep the people around me safe and trust in those who specialise in dealing with this just like they trust me to do my job properly when I take them on holiday.

[VinRouge]

Its not just the elderly. What about my friends 16 year old diabetic son, young parents with MS.

It is an incredibly difficult situation for everyone. Personally I would rather do without (I have done before) and keep the people around me safe and trust in those who specialise in dealing with this just like they trust me to do my job properly when I take them on holiday.

If there is a single vulnerable member of the household, as per what I have said before, the whole family Will have to remain on lockdown. But that is no different than the status quo. The difficult decision government will have is if it turns out ethnicity is a significant risk factor. A whole load of moral hazard may be about to rear it’s head.

A point though. No vaccine is 100% effective. Most, around 80%+ fortunately. . So, what do you suggest people do? Stay locked at home indefinitely just in case they are part of the 20% that have no immunity. There will still be residual risk for those with chronic identified conditions, even once the jab has been deployed.

[VinRouge]

The suggested return to normalisation I’m afraid isn’t an option. What are you trying to preserve for your children? That’s an open question for us all.


My answer to that would be, did we start wearing sandals, long socks and revert to socialism en masse after 100 million died of Spanish flu In 1918 and then nearly a million globally from the 1957 outbreak (from a much lower global population). Or did we just get on with it? I’ve never suggested throwing the elderly or vulnerable under a bus. But there are more intelligent and effective ways of handling this crisis.

This situation is not unique. The global community has been here before and had it much worse. What has changed is some bizarre notion that we all have a right to live to past 100, despite ignoring scientific advice about smoking, obesity, drinking and type 2 diabetes.

If you want to look for a reason things are going off the rails, it’s not globalisation. It’s too many people on a planet that is past capacity. We don’t have a too much co2 problem for example. We have a too many people emitting Co2 problem. Nature has a pretty good track history of correcting global imbalance.

Most of the time a virus will mutate to a less potent state, Ebola has several strains.....if you want to sleep well don’t search for what the worst does...

I was at the front line of the U.K. response to the last major outbreak on and off for a number of weeks, with flights to West Africa. I saw it first hand In some of the U.K. repatriations and evacuations we were involved in. All UK were caught by testing at a very early symptomatic stage, runny nose that sort of thing. The briefings we had (including some disturbing photosfrom the last stages) made it quite clear you didn’t want to get it. Fortunately, Ebola has a pretty low Transmissivity, certainly much lower than NCov. when foreign assistance first turned up, survival rates were pretty much zero. By the end, it was more like 60-80% in the patients favour. Most of international help cut the outbreak in 2014/15 by education in how to handle dead bodies. There were a lot of cultural norms which were massively increasing transmission and took a lot of work/education to break those norms.


What I would say a lot was learned from that outbreak, more than you will ever know at a deep research level. I hope that some of what has been learned is being deployed in fighting NCov from a potential treatment perspective.

[Fly Better!]

Vinrouge you obviously have all the right answers, why not ring Boris when hes back in the office and tell him.

Theres loads of people still working not least the NHS. Maybe the tourist industry is screwed. Being skint isn't the end of the world, I've been there, its character building.

Spanish flu caused a million deaths, would it have been much less if they had all stayed home? Just saying. Who knows?

[VinRouge]

Vinrouge you obviously have all the right answers, why not ring Boris when hes back in the office and tell him.

Theres loads of people still working not least the NHS. Maybe the tourist industry is screwed. Being skint isn't the end of the world, I've been there, its character building.

Spanish flu caused a million deaths, would it have been much less if they had all stayed home? Just saying. Who knows?

we aren’t talking about being skint though. Just as you think I am downplaying the impact or severity of NCov, you are doing the same with the economic impact. Shutting 90% of
your economy down is going to have a wider impact than tourism. And not temporarily either.

ive done my time being a public servant. 20 years of it and absolutely no interest in going back to inefficiency, waste and poor leadership. I grew up skint as a kid and it was turd, not sure about character building. No thanks.

No use telling these loons. They are the ones that promised the nation sunlit Brexit uplands, whilst not having enough British interest to pick veg and having to beg the international community for ventilators. Mainly in Europe. Let’s also not forget Michael “we are done listening to experts” Gove. It appears that no one is in charge at the moment anyhow.

Coronavirus: Lack of political leader leaves scientists in charge, say Tories

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lack-of-political-leader-leaves-scientists-in-charge-say-tories-z72sdfcdn

[Dark Stanley]

Globalisation and over population probably go hand in hand. You seem to welcome the opportunity of a mass extermination of people you deem to be of either the wrong demographic or of a lesser intelligence. It’s not a new view point, the last really big reduction in world population was brought about by similar elitist agendas not by Gaia.

As for reverting to socialism, there are still remote South Pacific islands that exist in perfect harmony with their environment. Not by any other means than coexisting with themselves and nature. Perfect socialism, not that they’d know it.

pulling our socks up isn’t going to cut it anymore. Less consumption, less expansion, more conservation might give us a chance. We have no idea what pathogens are waiting to cross over in pristine Rain Forrests. And that is very Gaia, and very scary....

[VinRouge]

Globalisation and over population probably go hand in hand. You seem to welcome the opportunity of a mass extermination of people you deem to be of either the wrong demographic or of a lesser intelligence. It’s not a new view point, the last really big reduction in world population was brought about by similar elitist agendas not by Gaia.

As for reverting to socialism, there are still remote South Pacific islands that exist in perfect harmony with their environment. Not by any other means than coexisting with themselves and nature. Perfect socialism, not that they’d know it.

pulling our socks up isn’t going to cut it anymore. Less consumption, less expansion, more conservation might give us a chance. We have no idea what pathogens are waiting to cross over in pristine Rain Forrests. And that is very Gaia, and very scary....

Is it mass extermination though when it occurs due to a natural occurrence? If the next one is a big one, say 60%+ fatality rate, is nature the Nazi? I’m not welcoming anything, nor have I suggested anywhere this needs to be such an event, just that we are causing unnecessary damage, due to media hysteria and a rudderless U.K government. You seem to have a pet peeve with the capitalist structure we live under. We don’t live on a Pacific Island by the way, not too sure Pacific islands have a health service and state pension system financed to the time of 240 billion pounds a year either, funded through the collection of corporation tax and income tax/NI for individuals working for those corporations.

[MrKipling]

You talk as if it's just the UK that is to blame for your children's lack of a future.

Where in the world right now are you planning on flying all the people who are queuing up to go on holiday?

Last time I looked large chunks of the world are closed down is this the UK governments fault too?

Why not go and do some volunteer work, especially as you know you and all your children have had the virus. It might help you relax about the situation that you cant control.

[VinRouge]

I already have and am doing active volunteering locally. it’s not me that needs to take a chill pill. Some people need to wake up though. I don’t do leisure.

Todays headline in the Times:

The second “amber” phase, beginning in late May or early June, would see more shops and businesses reopen, all employees urged to return to work and some small social gatherings permitted. Pubs and restaurants and larger events such as sport and concerts would not be phased in until July or later in the summer.

However, ministers warn that the over-70s and those who are particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus will be stuck on a “red” light for months. They will have to wait until there is a vaccine before resuming normal life. This third phase may not be possible until the autumn of next year.

The reason:

Ministers have been spooked by an “apocalyptic” Treasury report, warning that failure to ease restrictions in “the next few weeks” would mean six out of 10 businesses will be out of cash within 12 weeks. One source said that failure to act would mean “there won’t be anything left of the economy”.

This isn’t risking the leisure industry. It’s risking the whole economy. personally think it needs to be the over 55s and much earlier. The medical establishment have had too much control.

Other countries will have to choose to destroy their economic output or do the same. Things will get moving pretty quickly, supply chains cannot do half way house with Just in Time. It’s either on or off.

[Fly Better!]

There you go then, things are moving on :ok:

[Trossie]

Globalisation and over population probably go hand in hand. ...Wrong.

The fastest growing populations are in the least 'globalised' parts of the world.

Man is the only life-form that is actively involved in deliberate nature conservation. And it is the wealthier, more capitalist of man's societies that does the most. All other lifeforms just devour as much as they can.

Cat, pigeons, etc.

Back to the topic. It's difficult. The best is to keep a crew together for as long as possible, then have a significant break before being rostered with someone else. Not many places can do that easily. (Although with present rostering in most airlines right now that is probably no problem at all!)

[Dark Stanley]

[QUOTE=Trossie;10755249]Wrong.

The fastest growing populations are in the least 'globalised' parts of the world.

Man is the only life-form that is actively involved in deliberate nature conservation. And it is the wealthier, more capitalist of man's societies that does the most. All other lifeforms just devour as much as they can.

Of course there’s no spill over from globalisation, especially from the highly evolved western world that throws away more food than it consumes, especially with all the conservation and all that. The worlds ills are all the fault of the over reproducing third world. Let’s just carry on shall we...Comparing mankind to the greedy natural world is, frankly absurd. As far as we’re aware there’s only one species on the planet that is truly consciously aware. Pigeons you say....I truly want to cry. If you’re a professional pilot surely you can see how fundamentally ridiculous that comparison is...

There are many, many, more educated and informed and vastly more intelligent commentators that are and have been warning for a long time, that the current course that we are on will not end well.

Do I have a pet peeve with the current world capitalist structure? No.....I’m absolutely terrified that we seem to have no idea how to evolve from it....

[VinRouge]

[QUOTE=Trossie;10755249]Wrong.

The fastest growing populations are in the least 'globalised' parts of the world.

Man is the only life-form that is actively involved in deliberate nature conservation. And it is the wealthier, more capitalist of man's societies that does the most. All other lifeforms just devour as much as they can.

Of course there’s no spill over from globalisation, especially from the highly evolved western world that throws away more food than it consumes, especially with all the conservation and all that. The worlds ills are all the fault of the over reproducing third world. Let’s just carry on shall we...Comparing mankind to the greedy natural world is, frankly absurd. As far as we’re aware there’s only one species on the planet that is truly consciously aware. Pigeons you say....I truly want to cry. If you’re a professional pilot surely you can see how fundamentally ridiculous that comparison is...

There are many, many, more educated and informed and vastly more intelligent commentators that are and have been warning for a long time, that the current course that we are on will not end well.

Do I have a pet peeve with the current world capitalist structure? No.....I’m absolutely terrified that we seem to have no idea how to evolve from it....
we start by accepting that a few tens of millions less on the planet at the end of this year is probably no bad thing for the planet.

Unfortunately, the crowd that seem to support locking down the economy and laying a nuclear wasteground to our state finances are usually the same people who bleat on about a lack of anti malarial drugs, inequality and protecting everyone from NCov, no matter what the cost. The two don’t add up. Either you want to “save the planet” (hint, nature doing a pretty good job at the moment) or you want to save everyone. You can’t have both.

[Flying Clog]

Absolutely VinRouge. It's all me me me. This chinese bat flu is perhaps doing exactly what is needed. A bit of a population correction. Because therein lies the problem.

I don't know quite how Greta, the anti-vaccine crowd and the rest of their ilk are going to square that circle. But boo hoo.

The me me me and snowflake brigade are going absolutely mental at the moment. We should sit back and relax.

[poporange]

It is saddening that Corona Virus hs affected a lot of people and industries. We have high hopes that this shall pass. Stay healthy and always keep things clean.

[VinRouge]

It is saddening that Corona Virus hs affected a lot of people and industries. We have high hopes that this shall pass. Stay healthy and always keep things clean.

Im hoping it does pass, or we at least lift this ridiculous lockdown for The young and genetically lucky.

As for the situation we find ourselves in, I more concerned for the 100000 poor people now starving to death a day as a result of supply chain lockdowns. The west’s actions are one of the most selfish responses in history - protect those at end of life here whilst the economic impact results in millions starving globally. As well as future reductions in aid as a result
of cost savings to recover national finances.

And easily predictable. Go have a look on the world food programme website.

[Dark Stanley]

we start by accepting that a few tens of millions less on the planet at the end of this year is probably no bad thing for the planet.

ten million equates to about 0.1% of the worlds population. That’s not going to make that much of a difference.
if you want nature in the form of disease and illness to make a real difference then why stop there. Stop the fight against Ebola, stop the cancer treatments, the terrible truth is that for many cancers the 10 year survival rate is 50%. So just delaying the future burden on the economy. Stop antibiotics. The list could go on. Or do you cherry pick the demographic, the most useful?

So ten million die, then what, carry on regardless. It’s like a smoker losing a leg to thrombosis then buying twenty Marlboro on the way out of hospital. Except in this case ten million is like losing a toe nail. But if we carry on then maybe the next loss to mankind may well be a collective leg. The outcome from such an occurrence and indeed carrying on with our current rate of consumption is bleak.

A systematic change is desperately needed, not just a temporary reduction in population...

[VinRouge]

we start by accepting that a few tens of millions less on the planet at the end of this year is probably no bad thing for the planet.

ten million equates to about 0.1% of the worlds population. That’s not going to make that much of a difference.
if you want nature in the form of disease and illness to make a real difference then why stop there. Stop the fight against Ebola, stop the cancer treatments, the terrible truth is that for many cancers the 10 year survival rate is 50%. So just delaying the future burden on the economy. Stop antibiotics. The list could go on. Or do you cherry pick the demographic, the most useful?

So ten million die, then what, carry on regardless. It’s like a smoker losing a leg to thrombosis then buying twenty Marlboro on the way out of hospital. Except in this case ten million is like losing a toe nail. But if we carry on then maybe the next loss to mankind may well be a collective leg. The outcome from such an occurrence and indeed carrying on with our current rate of consumption is bleak.

A systematic change is desperately needed, not just a temporary reduction in population...

you have completely missed my point haven’t you?The only solution to your proposed predicament (not mine, it’s called getting on the Greta bus) is a long term significant reduction human population. But you lack the balls of your convictions to face up to what that means.

edit: worth pointing out that the price of
a barrel of oil on the futures market got down to -37 dollars. If that isn’t a sign of impending doom for the environmentalists, I don’t know
what is. The cost effectiveness of renewables have just been blown out of the water. All secondary effects of this ridiculous shutdown.

[Dark Stanley]

I haven’t missed your point I’m taking it to your logical conclusion. You were the one carrying out Ebola relief and criticising cancer treatment postponements. All pretty pointless in the drive to significant population reduction by nature don’t you think. And that was you too don’t forget.
So I’m a proponent of systemic change, and you propose millions of people dying from basically suffocation. Or maybe there’s a more humane way of reducing population and consumption, I really hope the world has the balls to find a way, for all of us and our children.

[VinRouge]

I wasn’t proposing anything. You read it as that.

Thats what I was getting at when I said
you were missing the point. I think the world is doing fine, certainly not going on about Gaia.

[vlieger]

So I’m a proponent of systemic change, and you propose millions of people dying from basically suffocation. Or maybe there’s a more humane way of reducing population and consumption, I really hope the world has the balls to find a way, for all of us and our children.

Agree with this, systemic change is the only way out. The other option VinRouge is proposing amounts to neo-Malthusian ecofascism, i.e. let the weak die.

[VinRouge]

Agree with this, systemic change is the only way out. The other option VinRouge is proposing amounts to neo-Malthusian ecofascism, i.e. let the weak die.
Again, I’m not proposing anything. I am simply stating that it is odd that the crowd that stomp their feet about the threat to the planet don’t seem to have the mettle of their convictions.

anyhow, back on thread, a worthy listen to this chap.
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

[Dark Stanley]

we start by accepting that a few tens of millions less on the planet at the end of this year is probably no bad thing for the planet.


ok, not proposing, my mistake. Maybe endorsing....



Quote...
As for the situation we find ourselves in, I more concerned for the 100000 poor people now starving to death a day as a result of supply chain lockdowns.

Is this no longer a good thing for the planet then? This is where cherry picking leads you to. Among the number you quote above are the sunshine people that would have died anyway. Pesky successful flu jab.....

As for the dreaded “ Greta” slights that inevitably get flung at anyone that agrees with widely accepted scientific reasoning.....well even Clarkson agrees that climate change is a reality.

Short term solutions only only get us so far, if nothing changes it’s out of the frying pan and into the fire....

[Trossie]

..well even Clarkson agrees that climate change is a reality.Of course climate change is a reality.

It's the causes that are claimed by the extremists that are questionable.

Wealthy capitalist societies have the lowest population growth rates, some even contracting. So there's your answer to overpopulation: more capitalism.