Air NZ pilot redundancies

[oldm8ey]

I think you might be wrong but I don’t know for sure. Staff costs p/a will be only a bit less than fuel bill if Air NZ is anything like my last Airline. (Annual report will tell you.)
A big part of everyone taking a greater % cut is that it impacts greatly on the lives of the 205 and their sons and daughters and husbands and wives.
The other big incentive is to save your company the massive headache and cost of everyone swapping seats and the risk to the company ( jobs) that brings.
Is it too late for you guys to organise a variation like this?
Given the variation ratified with 95% I suspect there may be more support out there for bigger cuts than anyone appreciated.

[ElZilcho]

Given the variation ratified with 95% I suspect there may be more support out there for bigger cuts than anyone appreciated.

I sincerely hope so. If the company make good on their promise to save jobs I'll be on 50% in the coming weeks. I'd like to think I wont be alone.

[73qanda]

Thanks for the explanations. I hope it works out as well as it can for all of you at Air NZ.

[ZKSUJ]

These 'job savings'. Are they permanent or long term or is it just delaying a redundancy? If the variations are 9 months or 12 months etc... and after that everything goes back to the status quo aernt the numbers still in surplus for where the airline needs staffing levels to be?

I'm not being a smart ar$€. Just asking. It seems no one can clarify the intent of it. I understand that its a fluid situation and things change etc... but I'm wondering for example if the 74 jobs are saved only for the duration of the FFA or if its permanent based on the calculation of 387.

[InZed]

You have to wonder why the company elected to take the conservative route rather than try and get agreement to negotiate redundancy packages, especially in these times of HPE and all. Another agenda perhaps?

I agree 100%. I think the thoughts on everyone's lips is that there will be another round of redundancies shortly. So they want to get rid of people, rather than pay large exit packages.

[InZed]

Given the variation ratified with 95% I suspect there may be more support out there for bigger cuts than anyone appreciated.

Then why the f*** was the % pay cut not a vote. I half way up the list but would still have voted for 50% pay for my same seat, rather than 100% of the seat I will end up in!!

[ElZilcho]

The whole thing was rushed.
If the AFFA was voted down we wouldn't of been given a second chance and the Axe would of fallen. I agree, it would of been better to run a member survey to determine how much of a cut we were prepared to take, but we were given the deadline of Roster 5 to get an agreement. I suspect however, one of the reasons for the 95% in favor was because we matched the Exec cut. That was a very popular opinion right from the beginning, and if we were to take 25% the Exec should match it.

I believe this agreement will certainly delay a 2nd wave for now. Yes, the saved jobs might only be temporary but we have the option to extend the AFFA at the completion of 9 rosters. I don't doubt the company will threaten the Axe if we don't agree, but they'll also force a No vote by swinging the axe again before then.

Until COVID is over, everything we agree on is "temporary". Right now, we're working to a predicted schedule in 12 months. If/when that changes, the process will start again. However, I suspect what will change is the timing not the Schedule.. that is, it might not be April 2021 we're back to 70% but April 2022, however 70% seems to be the long term goal.

[Inverted Flat Spin]

Then why the f*** was the % pay cut not a vote. I half way up the list but would still have voted for 50% pay for my same seat, rather than 100% of the seat I will end up in!!

Yep. C20 here. I’d rather stay where I am on 50% for years than take 100% F20 pay.

[kangaroota]

It's now a matter of who can salvage what out of this fiasco. For some it will be the difference between buying their fifth rental property or not.
And for some it will be a question of whether or not they can keep their first home.
One thing is for sure, the current model of seniority is gone.
Once the carcass of Air New Zealand has been picked over and the post mortem is complete, no financial backer is going down that road again.
Seniority if it exists will be on a fleet by fleet and / or base by base basis.
To be honest, if you were investing in an airline, would you buy into Air New Zealand,s redundancy model?

[AerocatS2A]

Yeah, like investors pore over the CEAs (which can be changed periodically) and vet the seniority system. :D

I am certain the seniority system in Air NZ will largely stay the same.

[ElZilcho]

Air NZ rejected the voluntary severance of around 40 777 Captains because it's too expensive.
If redundancies were by fleet and not last on first off, they would be liable for Redundancy payments for a larger number of 777 Captains (and FO's) than they just rejected. It would of cost them an awful lot more to do the redundancies by fleet than by seniority.

The cost of down-training isn't a real cost while we're all sitting around at home doing nothing. It's more the logistical timeframe that makes it undesirable.

[crosscutter]

Airlines like ANZ love the seniority system...it’s going nowhere fast so relax.

A plan agreed to by the unions will pass, where to minimise costs the 320 pilots will still fly the 320 but a bit of seat shuffling will/may occur. No wide body pilots are going anywhere for a while...so use up that leave, go drive a truck if you have to. All this training talk nonsense is just that...until the world starts spinning again.

The company has an idea of number of pilots required on the other side. There will still be the usual destinations and excessive redundancies are counterproductive to this plan. Once a new international flying program is developed there will be downward movements but why/how can they form decisions regarding crewing allocations at the moment. It’s a mugs game. This is highly unsettling times. ANZ has taken decisive action, and compromises will still be required before the status quo recommences...and it will.

All the very best.

[hownowbrowncow]

Yep. C20 here. I’d rather stay where I am on 50% for years than take 100% F20 pay.

Especially if you’ve done less than two years in the left seat and are expected to go through the whole rigmarole of command training again when you eventually get back there...

[kangaroota]

Yeah, like investors pore over the CEAs (which can be changed periodically) and vet the seniority system. :D

I am certain the seniority system in Air NZ will largely stay the same.
That's exactly what I'd expect a prudent investor to do. It's called due diligence.

[Out there]

Don’t confuse the redoing of the command course (4 days in the classroom over 2 sessions) with a initial command upgrade. Look at the chapter on requalification training 4.25.

[Point 92]

Course Specs 3.8.1; Current policy says returning after less than 2 years in the left seat is treated as an first command upgrade. Fun times.

[hownowbrowncow]

Don’t confuse the redoing of the command course (4 days in the classroom over 2 sessions) with a initial command upgrade. Look at the chapter on requalification training 4.25.

Looks like you’re correct, I’d heard from a few people you that you had to do it all again. That manual is as clear as mud.

[Flash Blackman]

Air NZ rejected the voluntary severance of around 40 777 Captains because it's too expensive.
If redundancies were by fleet and not last on first off, they would be liable for Redundancy payments for a larger number of 777 Captains (and FO's) than they just rejected. It would of cost them an awful lot more to do the redundancies by fleet than by seniority.

The cost of down-training isn't a real cost while we're all sitting around at home doing nothing. It's more the logistical timeframe that makes it undesirable.

cost of the sim?

[ElZilcho]

cost of the sim?

Well the SIMS, much like the Aircraft, are simply sitting there waiting to be used. To my knowledge, the Instructors and Techs, like the Pilots, are sitting at home twiddling their thumbs during Lockdown.
Obviously there are some costs associated with running the Sims, but again, like the Aircraft, a portion are fixed costs whether we use them or not.

I could be wrong here, but my understanding is that while everything has a "cost" to be counted, some are simply accounted for on the Balance sheets and don't actually "cost" cash. As an example, a Pilot doing a conversion costs the same daily rate as they do when operating, so the "cost" is the fact they've moved from a revenue generating service to a non-revenue generating service (training).

Right now, we're all being paid to sit at home, so we wouldn't be taken off revenue flights to be paid for a non-revenue generating conversion.
Besides a bit of power and maintenance for turning the SIMS on, there effectively is no "cost"... actually it could save money as Pilots complete type ratings and get down-trained to a lower salary.

I'd say the biggest hurdle to mass down training (at the moment) is time and the availability of line sectors.

[Ollie Onion]

The training department have been told that the down training will take 38 rosters and realistically those who are needed on the Bus will be down trained and everyone else will just be allowed to become un-current and paid to sit at home with no work. This is a financial disaster for Air NZ and will lead to more job losses. Air NZ have just been on the morning news saying they now expect their domestic network to only be 50% until all travel and border restrictions are lifted.

[ElZilcho]

The training department have been told that the down training will take 38 rosters and realistically those who are needed on the Bus will be down trained and everyone else will just be allowed to become un-current and paid to sit at home with no work. This is a financial disaster for Air NZ and will lead to more job losses. Air NZ have just been on the morning news saying they now expect their domestic network to only be 50% until all travel and border restrictions are lifted.

I'm not so sure it'll lead to more Job losses.

As I said above, Wages and Fuel make up approx $2.6B of the $4.6B Annual expenses. Fuel is obviously way down and wages are dropping with redundancies. There's another $2B of expenses there which will need addressing.
Jet Pilot wages have probably reduced from ~$230M to ~$175M after Redundancies and the 14% Paycut.

If they make another 200 Pilots redundant, that could reduce the wage bill by another ~$25M, but also risks the remaining Pilots voting against extending the 14% cut beyond 9 rosters. It would also ground the Airbus fleet and require even more down-training.... $25M will not save Air NZ.

I expect we'll be asked to take a larger % Paycut before they make more Pilots Redundant.That's the only solution that keeps Pilots in their current seats, removing the need to re-shuffle everyone, and the only way to reduce the costs of the higher paid Pilots who are protected from Redundancy by Seniority.

[normanton]

The training department have been told that the down training will take 38 rosters and realistically those who are needed on the Bus will be down trained and everyone else will just be allowed to become un-current and paid to sit at home with no work. This is a financial disaster for Air NZ and will lead to more job losses. Air NZ have just been on the morning news saying they now expect their domestic network to only be 50% until all travel and border restrictions are lifted.
Welcome to the downside of seniority.

Air NZ should be going to the courts with the argument its not financially viable.

It's unfortunate they can't just leave you stood down like here in OZ.

[ElZilcho]

Welcome to the downside of seniority.

Air NZ should be going to the courts with the argument its not financially viable.

It's unfortunate they can't just leave you stood down like here in OZ.

That would cost more.
Redundancy for a junior SO/F20 is ~$20- $30k
Redundancy for a 777 Captain is closer to $400k... more when you payout their accrued & long service leave.
Plus Court costs.

[normanton]

That would cost more.
Redundancy for a junior SO/F20 is ~$20- $30k
Redundancy for a 777 Captain is closer to $400k... more when you payout their accrued & long service leave.
Plus Court costs.
Well that's my point. Don't forget that one training movement at the top can make countless more down the line. Training costs, sim costs, allowances etc. it all adds up.

The most cost effective way here is an option that allows the company to stand people down. Not an option in your current EBA, but again, with the survival of the company at priority #1, Air NZ should be going to the courts.

[AerocatS2A]

Well that's my point. Don't forget that one training movement at the top can make countless more down the line. Training costs, sim costs, allowances etc. it all adds up.

The most cost effective way here is an option that allows the company to stand people down. Not an option in your current EBA, but again, with the survival of the company at priority #1, Air NZ should be going to the courts.
Is it legal to force LWOP in New Zealand? I suspect it isn't but haven't found good information on it.

[ElZilcho]

Well that's my point. Don't forget that one training movement at the top can make countless more down the line. Training costs, sim costs, allowances etc. it all adds up.

The most cost effective way here is an option that allows the company to stand people down. Not an option in your current EBA, but again, with the survival of the company at priority #1, Air NZ should be going to the courts.

Air NZ rejected 40+ 777 Captains offer of Voluntary severance, which, unlike Redundancy, could of been paid fortnightly. I'm just a simple line Pilot, but seems they aren't interested in losing people off the top (thus reducing down-training) unless they take early Retirement and walk. I don't believe down-training will cost any "cash" while we're sitting at home with nothing else to do.

Again, the Jet Pilot wage bill will have reduced from ~$230M to ~$175M out of the total $4.5B in expenses. Standing us down (which isn't legal in NZ) would buy them enough cash for maybe another 2 months.
I have no doubt if COVID drags on we'll be asked to make to accept further paycuts, and I would expect the Executive to lead by example.

Well Jetconnect and Jetstar NZ are all on LWOP.

I believe they were told to accept LWOP or face closure of the NZ operations, thus Redundancy.

[Lepper Messiah]

I believe they were told to accept LWOP or face closure of the NZ operations, thus Redundancy.

Well not exactly. Qantas decided very early on that as a group they basically need to shut down to preserve cash. 20000 people were stood down without pay with the idea of not making anyone redundant and having everyone return to work when the crisis is over and things lift.

In NZ obviously the labour laws are a little different and a stand down was not possible in the same way as oz so a temporary amendment to the cea was required and voted in very quickly without fuss from the staff.

Air NZ is an absolute mess. I'm surprised they didn't do the same thing, early on, just shut down and not pay people rediculous amounts to sit around and do nothing. It must be costing them millions.
There's been no threat or talk of redundancies at qf, in oz or NZ, and everyones doing their bit and making the sacrifices in order to preserve the company and jobs.

If there's work to be done then people are stood up to do it and paid accordingly, as are those vital to keeping the company going.

Since then Australia has introduced the jobkeeper subsidy and NZ has the wage subsidy which every one who was stood down without pay are receiving the basic subsidy from their governments

​​

[Lapon]

Again, the Jet Pilot wage bill will have reduced from ~$230M to ~$175M out of the total $4.5B in expenses. Standing us down (which isn't legal in NZ) would buy them enough cash for maybe another 2 months.

On those numbers it's almost hard to believe it's worth the hassle of down training. Have the guys needed fly, those that dont sit at home and get paid.
It's not a long term solution, but as elzicho mentions, it not going to make or break the survival of the company in the short term. I suspect they have bigger fish to fry than pilot efficiencies.

[ElZilcho]

Well not exactly. Qantas decided very early on that as a group they basically need to shut down to preserve cash. 20000 people were stood down without pay with the idea of not making anyone redundant and having everyone return to work when the crisis is over and things lift.

In NZ obviously the labour laws are a little different and a stand down was not possible in the same way as oz so a temporary amendment to the cea was required and voted in very quickly without fuss from the staff.

Air NZ is an absolute mess. I'm surprised they didn't do the same thing, early on, just shut down and not pay people rediculous amounts to sit around and do nothing. It must be costing them millions.
There's been no threat or talk of redundancies at qf, in oz or NZ, and everyones doing their bit and making the sacrifices in order to preserve the company and jobs.

If there's work to be done then people are stood up to do it and paid accordingly, as are those vital to keeping the company going.

Since then Australia has introduced the jobkeeper subsidy and NZ has the wage subsidy which every one who was stood down without pay are receiving the basic subsidy from their governments

​​

Having worked for the QF group on this side of the ditch, I think I can safely say all those involved were well aware of what the outcome would be if they didn't agree to being stood down, even if it wasn't explicitly stated.
QANTAS would also be in the exact same situation as Air NZ if not for the different employment Laws around standing people down. Everyone's "doing their bit" because they weren't given a choice. I doubt those 20,000 would of voluntarily taken LWOP after being locked out by AJ back in 2011.

The Australian Wage subsidy is also worth about twice what the NZ one is.

Air NZ not interested in keeping staff long term.
Wouldn't be surprised if the staff reduction is permanent. Apparently Foran thought the airline was 20% bigger than it should be in his vision when he joined the airline.

Probably right. Even after Redundancies we still have more Pilots than 5-6 years ago.
Redundant Pilots will likely be called back to cover attrition (~30 per year) and possibly a bit of "cautious growth" in the years after COVID.

Based on the CEA Redundancy clauses though, they could of justified making 700 of us redundant. (less than 60 hrs average for 3 consecutive rosters)
I'd say they are interested in keeping *most* staff for the long term.
Redundancies seem to be based around reverting Luxons expansion and consolidating routes to the money makers once the border re-open.

[Anti Skid On]

Air NZ not interested in keeping staff long term.
Wouldn't be surprised if the staff reduction is permanent. Apparently Foran thought the airline was 20% bigger than it should be in his vision when he joined the airline.

The latter bit is a really interesting statement. I have often thought that the bods in route planning have made some 'interesting' decisions. For example, who thought Buenos Aires was a good idea, especially when there was a competition to the same region via Latam? NZ has had an influx of people from India; would it not have been better to tap that market with a direct route. Were all the US routes making money (thinking Chicago, Houston, etc)?

[AerocatS2A]

US routes were doing better than expected apparently.

[RevMan2]

I'm not so sure it'll lead to more Job losses.

As I said above, Wages and Fuel make up approx $2.6B of the $4.6B Annual expenses. Fuel is obviously way down and wages are dropping with redundancies. There's another $2B of expenses there which will need addressing.
Jet Pilot wages have probably reduced from ~$230M to ~$175M after Redundancies and the 14% Paycut.

If they make another 200 Pilots redundant, that could reduce the wage bill by another ~$25M, but also risks the remaining Pilots voting against extending the 14% cut beyond 9 rosters. It would also ground the Airbus fleet and require even more down-training.... $25M will not save Air NZ.

I expect we'll be asked to take a larger % Paycut before they make more Pilots Redundant.That's the only solution that keeps Pilots in their current seats, removing the need to re-shuffle everyone, and the only way to reduce the costs of the higher paid Pilots who are protected from Redundancy by Seniority.
Fuel *won't* be way doiwn - it'll be exactly where it was when the beancounters hedged it, which is a few (or more...) degrees north of today's spot prices

[ElZilcho]

Fuel *won't* be way doiwn - it'll be exactly where it was when the beancounters hedged it, which is a few (or more...) degrees north of today's spot prices

Yes, fuel was hedged, how much and at what rate I'm not sure. However I wasn't referring to the cost per tonne, but the fact that 95% of the fleets grounded thus we aren't burning $1.3B this FY.

[InZed]

The latter bit is a really interesting statement. I have often thought that the bods in route planning have made some 'interesting' decisions. For example, who thought Buenos Aires was a good idea, especially when there was a competition to the same region via Latam? NZ has had an influx of people from India; would it not have been better to tap that market with a direct route. Were all the US routes making money (thinking Chicago, Houston, etc)?

Anti Skid On They talked about this last year on a Pilot Expo Day. They looked at India closely, particularly with the demand. But the issue is around the aircraft that would have to be operated on the route, as those from India are notoriously price conscious (read: do not fly in premium).

For example (let's call premium = Premium Economy, Business or First Class).
Air India B773 has just 39 premium seats. Economy seating of 303 pax.
Air NZ B773 98 premium seats (over 2.5 times the number). Leaving space for only two economy cabins seating 244 pax.
Jet Airways (Indian-based carrier that has folded) had similar; 38 premium to 308 economy.

Boeing 747-400 comparison
Air India B744 has just 38 premium seats, with 385 economy
Air NZ B744 (retired) had 85 premium seats, to 294 economy.

The comparisons get even more start when you compare an Air India 788 vs Air NZ 789 (apples and oranges I know). But:
Air India has just 18 premium seats. Fitting in 238 economy.
Air NZ has 60 premium seats (almost 4 times the number). Only leaving space for 215 economy seats, despite the -9 being over 6m longer (approx. seven rows of seats).

So I've been told it's the balance. Finding a route that (particularly on ULR) is a very business traveller heavy market, but will also appeal to economy pax. Considering that Business Class is where the money is made... It's crucial that this is full. And Buenos Aires obviously ticked the business traveller market box. And India does not.

We do not operate the right config for Indian flights and probably never will.

[PRD Area]

Looks like Winnie is threatening to shake up Air NZ: Stuff Article (/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz). Unfortunately it's going to be too little too late for those drivers shortly to be made redundant. Maybe one of the first questions the nationalised owner will ask is why didn't they accept those voluntary severances from those pilots on the big bucks? They're going to pay them to sit around for 54 weeks anyway...

[InZed]

Looks like Winnie is threatening to shake up Air NZ: Stuff Article (/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz). Unfortunately it's going to be too little too late for those drivers shortly to be made redundant. Maybe one of the first questions the nationalised owner will ask is why didn't they accept those voluntary severances from those pilots on the big bucks? They're going to pay them to sit around for 54 weeks anyway...

Working link here:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz

[waren9]

Working link here:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121364096/winston-peters-hints-at-big-changes-for-air-nz


I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.

[ElZilcho]

I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.

For the whole Airline or just the Executive?

[Ollie Onion]

Full state ownership may not save anymore jobs and would lead to the airline becoming a political tool used as a bargaining chip every election. Also it would make a joke of competition in NZ, how would Soundsair, Air Chatham, Origin, Jetstar etc possibly complete with a SOE, they would have to be allowed to operate competitively..... hell why not nationalise all of them. You certainly would have to subsidise competitors in some way to level the playing field unless of course you don’t view that their jobs are as important as yours and that is a whole other argument. Any aviation package needs to be distributed fairly to ALL entities that serve NZ.

[waren9]

Its not going to happen anyway, I wouldn't panic. Winnie just thought it was about time for another populist headline.

At worst, the $900m loan will be converted to an increased shareholding diluting everybody elses shares, just like last time.

[RubberDogPoop]

For the whole Airline or just the Executive?

For the whole airline - without a shadow of a doubt! God help us!

[Anti Skid On]

Anti Skid On They talked about this last year on a Pilot Expo Day. They looked at India closely, particularly with the demand. But the issue is around the aircraft that would have to be operated on the route, as those from India are notoriously price conscious (read: do not fly in premium).

For example (let's call premium = Premium Economy, Business or First Class).
Air India B773 has just 39 premium seats. Economy seating of 303 pax.
Air NZ B773 98 premium seats (over 2.5 times the number). Leaving space for only two economy cabins seating 244 pax.
Jet Airways (Indian-based carrier that has folded) had similar; 38 premium to 308 economy.

Boeing 747-400 comparison
Air India B744 has just 38 premium seats, with 385 economy
Air NZ B744 (retired) had 85 premium seats, to 294 economy.

The comparisons get even more start when you compare an Air India 788 vs Air NZ 789 (apples and oranges I know). But:
Air India has just 18 premium seats. Fitting in 238 economy.
Air NZ has 60 premium seats (almost 4 times the number). Only leaving space for 215 economy seats, despite the -9 being over 6m longer (approx. seven rows of seats).

So I've been told it's the balance. Finding a route that (particularly on ULR) is a very business traveller heavy market, but will also appeal to economy pax. Considering that Business Class is where the money is made... It's crucial that this is full. And Buenos Aires obviously ticked the business traveller market box. And India does not.

We do not operate the right config for Indian flights and probably never will.
Thank you for your clear and insightful explanation

[Mendi Matt]

Well said. Terrible times indeed.

[MCDU2]

I can see the last ounce of Forans enthusiasm for this job evaporating if that happens. He's already stated becoming an SOE would be a terrible outcome for the airline.

Supermarket sales are hitting record highs. Bonus heaven for Walmart senior management. I would be making the call back to base and getting out of dodge if I was Foran. He has little experience in turn around management so isn't best placed for the role anyway.

[kangaroota]

Supermarket sales are hitting record highs. Bonus heaven for Walmart senior management. I would be making the call back to base and getting out of dodge if I was Foran. He has little experience in turn around management so isn't best placed for the role anyway.
Foran isn't in it for the money. Who knows, maybe trying to save a corpse flat lining on life support is the sort of challenge he's up for.

[kev2002]

This should help a bit

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2005/S00034/air-new-zealand-signs-government-deal-to-take-cargo-to-the-world.htm

[Ollie Onion]

Good news indeed but the money went to several airlines:

‘The first successful applicants were Air New Zealand, China Airlines, Emirates, Freightways Express, Qantas and Tasman Cargo’

[kev2002]

Didnt suggest Air NZ was getting all of the money. They should receive a healthy share though. Link has a breakdown of routes and carriers

https://www.transport.govt.nz/air/government-support-for-the-aviation-sector/

[oldm8ey]

From the sounds of Uncle Greg's email on Friday it looks like redundancy round 2 is coming sooner than we thought.

[ElZilcho]

From the sounds of Uncle Greg's email on Friday it looks like redundancy round 2 is coming sooner than we thought.

Whilst possible, we’ve been warned not to read too much into company wide information and assume it relates specifically to Pilots. Further redundancies was mentioned in a previous Live-stream with Foran a week or 2 ago, and when the Pilot group followed up with the GM Pilots, she said it was a generic statement and there were no current plans for further Pilot redundancies.

I’d say Air NZ would be treading on legal eggshells if they announced further Pilot redundancies mere weeks after signing a 9 month agreement with us on pay concessions which was supposed to (and did) save 74 jobs. There are, I believe, certain employment laws around bargaining in good faith.

Right now, the notional list for down training and directions is being worked on. I admit, it’s delay has caused me some pause for concern, but it’s no easy task as I expect they’re exploring options to minimise seat changes. Once it’s released however, and the down training begins, any further redundancies would largely effect the Airbus FO ranks and require the notional process to start over again.

The company have told us multiple times they plan to be 70% size post COVID. This has been pushed out another year to April 2022 so I have no doubt they request an extension to the AFFA beyond 9 rosters, but I can’t see more Pilot redundancies on the horizon unless they revise post Covid size to be 60% (for example). Other departments however, who are cheap to lay off and re-hire/train will unfortunately see more cuts.

[myturn]

The 70% pre Covid projection was over 2 months ago, things have seriously gone down hill since then. Round 2 is unfortunately inevitable.

[ElZilcho]

The 70% pre Covid projection was over 2 months ago, things have seriously gone down hill since then. Round 2 is unfortunately inevitable.

And yet for those 2 months, the company did not revise their Pilot Redundancy numbers, and agreed to the AFFA as a means to reduce Redundancies as little as 2 weeks ago.
Greg Foran's latests communication changed the timeframe, but not the 70%. That is what they're sticking with and that is what Pilot Redundancies were based off. If Redundancies were based on the current flying schedule, 700+ would of gotten letters last week.

To approach this with a bit more common sense. In 3 months time (redundancy notice Period) the Airbus fleet will lose over half it's First Officers right as Domestic (and potentially Trans-Tasman) begin to pick back up. Under normal circumstances it takes approximately 3 months (Sim + Line training) to facilitate a fleet change. Obviously they can't have 100 Pilots training simultaneously. If they decide to take another swipe off the bottom, say 200 for example, that would be all the Airbus FO's gone, and probably a few Captains. The only fleet with much work on would be grounded.

I've said it countless times, and until proven wrong, I'll keep saying it. COVID-19 is a disaster, but it wont be solved with more redundancies. Pre-Covid, Jet Pilot wages made up approximately 17% of the Total Wage bill and ~4-5% of the total annual expenses. Redundancies have shaved off about $20M, while the AFFA will be closer to $30M (annualized). The AFFA savings are immediate while the Redundancies have yet to come into effect.
If Air NZ are serious about being 70% size (which Foran confirmed a few days ago, merely pushing it out to 2022), any Pilot Redundancies beyond those numbers will result in even more strain on the training department as Pilots get recalled and down-trained Pilots get another direction back up the list.

Those most Junior Pilots, post redundancy, are about 4 years in, so their redundancies wont be as cheap (unless of course they take Furlough). On average, I'd say another 200 Pilot redundancies would cost 6-7 months Pay (notice period + redundancy). The Company then run the risk of the remaining Pilots not agreeing to extend the AFFA, which is worth more in cost savings than Redundancies.

Don't get me wrong, COVID isn't over by a long shot, but the next battle wont be the Axe chopping another 200 off the bottom. It'll be the Company requesting an extension to the AFFA and/or more concessions the the CEA.

[oldm8ey]

All sounds quite logical. I hope you're right.

[InZed]

And yet for those 2 months, the company did not revise their Pilot Redundancy numbers, and agreed to the AFFA as a means to reduce Redundancies as little as 2 weeks ago.
Greg Foran's latests communication changed the timeframe, but not the 70%. That is what they're sticking with and that is what Pilot Redundancies were based off. If Redundancies were based on the current flying schedule, 700+ would of gotten letters last week.

To approach this with a bit more common sense. In 3 months time (redundancy notice Period) the Airbus fleet will lose over half it's First Officers right as Domestic (and potentially Trans-Tasman) begin to pick back up. Under normal circumstances it takes approximately 3 months (Sim + Line training) to facilitate a fleet change. Obviously they can't have 100 Pilots training simultaneously. If they decide to take another swipe off the bottom, say 200 for example, that would be all the Airbus FO's gone, and probably a few Captains. The only fleet with much work on would be grounded.

I've said it countless times, and until proven wrong, I'll keep saying it. COVID-19 is a disaster, but it wont be solved with more redundancies. Pre-Covid, Jet Pilot wages made up approximately 17% of the Total Wage bill and ~4-5% of the total annual expenses. Redundancies have shaved off about $20M, while the AFFA will be closer to $30M (annualized). The AFFA savings are immediate while the Redundancies have yet to come into effect.

If Air NZ are serious about being 70% size (which Foran confirmed a few days ago, merely pushing it out to 2022), any Pilot Redundancies beyond those numbers will result in even more strain on the training department as Pilots get recalled and down-trained Pilots get another direction back up the list.

Those most Junior Pilots, post redundancy, are about 4 years in, so their redundancies wont be as cheap (unless of course they take Furlough). On average, I'd say another 200 Pilot redundancies would cost 6-7 months Pay (notice period + redundancy). The Company then run the risk of the remaining Pilots not agreeing to extend the AFFA, which is worth more in cost savings than Redundancies.

Don't get me wrong, COVID isn't over by a long shot, but the next battle wont be the Axe chopping another 200 off the bottom. It'll be the Company requesting an extension to the AFFA and/or more concessions the the CEA.

:D

Credit where credit is due ElZilcho...

A coherent, sensible and well written few paragraphs of text there. (Highly unusual to see this on this forum these days)...

[captsf]

ElZilcho, you are quite possibly one of the most level headed posters on ANZ related issues. A bit of sanity in these times is greatly appreciated. Thank you sir!

[InZed]

Heard the rumour today that they're about to move most 772s to Alice Springs for long term storage before winter and the associated moisture issues with storage.

Feel for the guys at the bottom of the new list, I can only imagine removing the 772 fleet will cut another 100 pilots off the bottom of the list.

[here_we_go_again]

Heard the rumour today that they're about to move most 772s to Alice Springs for long term storage before winter and the associated moisture issues with storage.

Feel for the guys at the bottom of the new list, I can only imagine removing the 772 fleet will cut another 100 pilots off the bottom of the list.
I think you need to re-read your company and union emails. The 2021 numbers are all done on only having two 773s in service. The removal of the other 13 frames is already factored in (all 200s and balance of 300s).

[ElZilcho]

We have 15 777's. 7x 300's and 8x 200's (excluding the SQ & EVA leases which have been returned). The Notional Seniority list provides crewing for 2x 777's, so parking most of them was always the plan.

[Chris2303]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/417523/live-covid-19-updates-in-new-zealand-and-around-the-world-on-26-may

"Air New Zealand says it will make a loss because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The airline says it has had little revenue over the past six weeks under the level 4 and 3 lockdowns, having cut its capacity by 95 percent.

It's given no precise figure of the loss, but last year's earnings before tax and other charges were $374 million.

Chief financial officer Jeff McDowall said the airline is taking every step to limit its costs through redundancies, deferral of plane purchases, grounding a large part of its fleet and a freeze on non-essential spending.

He said the airline will take one-off financial hits because of the virus of between $554 million and $694 million.

McDowall says Air New Zealand has about $640 million in cash and hasn't yet touched the government loan of $900 million."

[Logan31]

More redundancies to come I suspect???

[Ollie Onion]

The word around the unions is possibly another 100 pilots to go in round 2.

[Wingman09]

More redundancies to come I suspect???
Yip, Greg has the axe on the whetstone as we speak!

[Slezy9]

The word around the unions is possibly another 100 pilots to go in round 2.

I know it has to be bottom up to be IAW the CEA, but wow, the mountain of training that is being created! The A320 will be the biggest fleet in the near term but there will be almost no FO's left and a good chunk of Capt's will be down-trained (with many not choosing to do the simple seat swap and heading off to be a widebody FO)

Supposedly 40 senior pilots accepted a voluntary redundancy, then the company only offered approximately 50% of what is in the contract! Unsurprisingly no one accepted the offer!

[Ollie Onion]

The down training is a killer for the business but how else should it be done. I know that I prefer a straight LIFO as opposed to allowing management to ‘select’ who they want to go. Also there should be a massive cost associated with making people redundant, hopefully the down training and cost may dissuade Air NZ from carrying out any more redundancies and the 100 mentioned above will turn out just to be a rumour.

[waren9]

The word around the unions is possibly another 100 pilots to go in round 2.

JFC.

Any time frame on that Ollie? Starting to wonder if the 14% cut and FLXF thing will end up actually saving any jobs at all. Just maybe G McG was right all along?

[Pundit]

Will seniority be applied? This is going to be an issue if QF starts redundancies.

[Slezy9]

Will seniority be applied? This is going to be an issue if QF starts redundancies.

Yes. Everyone who has been given notice is at the bottom of the list.

[ElZilcho]

Well, none of the Reps I’ve spoken to have heard anything along these lines so I’d suggest it’s come from an individual speculating, or perhaps someone with a close contact in exec who leaked a long term strategy. To my knowledge, there have been no recent union meetings with the Exec as they’re still working with CC and Engineers.

The timing is also suspicious. The inks barely dried on the AFFA, which combined with other voluntary measures, saved 91 jobs. As I said above, I’d suggest the Co. would be walking a very tight legal line to announce 100 redundancies on the back of signing agreements that spared 100 jobs.

Will there be a round 2? Possibly, but I’ll be extremely surprised if it happens so soon.
Again, that would be mostly Airbus FO’s and we haven’t even started to replace those already made redundant.

I could be wrong, time will tell, but I’ll be campaigning to throw the AFFA in the bin if the company do a bait and switch on us.

Lastly, while the down training appears absurd, the company refused voluntary offers from 40+ 777 Captains as it was too expensive and instead offered them a “bonus” to take early retirement, which most rejected.

[Ragnor]

Will seniority be applied? This is going to be an issue if QF starts redundancies.

I would think QF would hold of on those due to the massive cost involved.

[Inverted Flat Spin]

There’s nothing in the AFFA to prevent further redundancies. The numbers would have to be based around 60hrs rather than optimal IP, as that’s what saved jobs.

It would be a down training disaster... Most F20s would be gone. Junior C20s would only have notional seniority to be SOs.

Fingers crossed it doesn’t happen.

[ElZilcho]

There’s nothing in the AFFA to prevent further redundancies. The numbers would have to be based around 60hrs rather than optimal IP, as that’s what saved jobs.

It would be a down training disaster... Most F20s would be gone. Junior C20s would only have notional seniority to be SOs.

Fingers crossed it doesn’t happen.

I'd say it all comes down to the timing. The AFFA states the following:

4.4 The parties acknowledge that this temporary Variation has been agreed as
part of considering alternatives to compulsory redundancies, and the parties
agree that as an outcome of this temporary Variation, any savings achieved
will be taken into consideration in determining the number and timing of any
redundancies including, but not limited to, the likely number of redundancies
will reduce by 74 pilots. At the time of ratification of this temporary Variation,
it is acknowledged by the parties that the final number of redundancies is still
to be confirmed.

A further 17 jobs were saved through voluntary measure which took the total to 91.

If Air NZ chops another 100 in 12 months time, I'd tend to agree, the AFFA doesn't prevent that. If they do so a month after the AFFA was signed however, I'd suggest the Company was not bargaining in good faith. Lets also not forget those who took early retirement, LWOP or 50% contracts on the basis it would save jobs as well.
The excuse that "things have changed" doesn't carry much weight in my opinion, as the depth of COVID was felt before the numbers were finalized. The Coalition stated a long time ago they planned to keep the borders closed long term (possibly until a Vaccine). If anything, things are improving slightly with talks of a Tasma/South Pacific bubble.

However, for now, this is mostly academic, as agree with your position. The Company gave us a notional list predicted on April 2021... it's only a week old (maybe 2?) and nothings changed in that time. Once the process starts, taking another swipe at the bottom will invalidate the entire process and they'll have to start again.

[Slezy9]

This isn't a comment on the pros and cons of either countries workplace laws....

Air NZ must be looking across the Tasman with some jealousy at QF and the rest. Aussie airlines can just "stand down" everyone indefinitely on zero pay (unless I'm mistaken). Meanwhile Air NZ have been paying all their pilots at least 86% of their full time salary to do (in most cases) almost nothing. I have a friend over there who will lose their job at the end of July, they will not have worked a day for 12 weeks at the end of June, and the chance of them working in their last month close to zero. That's 16 weeks on full pay!

I know some people have commented that Air NZ moved quickly to get rid of people, but when you look at the above case you see their side of the argument.

[crosscutter]

I agree. Air NZ has for the last decade been a nimble, creative and flexible example of excellence. I can only assume there is a reason why something like leave without pay wasn’t implemented. Considering the international recovery is going to be slow, you can’t help think they’ve missed a trick here.

[NGsim]

I agree. Air NZ has for the last decade been a nimble, creative and flexible example of excellence. I can only assume there is a reason why something like leave without pay wasn’t implemented. Considering the international recovery is going to be slow, you can’t help think they’ve missed a trick here.

Because it’s against NZ employment law or they would have gladly stood down 90% of their workforce

[crosscutter]

Because it’s against NZ employment law or they would have gladly stood down 90% of their workforce

I understand. I never mentioned the stand down provisions. Leave Without Pay is very much part of NZ employment law. It just has to be agreed to by both parties.

For one reason or another, it didn’t happen.

When borders re open it’s not going to be all nice and friendly between airlines. There is potentially going to be blood on the streets. You want to be in tip top shape for that day.

[Lapon]

Because it’s against NZ employment law or they would have gladly stood down 90% of their workforce

Jetconnect and (I believe) Jetstar NZ would suggest otherwise.
I assume it has never found its way into the NZ eba because the need for it had never been envisaged.

Nobody wants to be on leave without pay, but other than a few of the most self entitled individuals, I'm sure most would agree that such a provision would be in the interests of the greater good right now.

[Ollie Onion]

Quite right I don’t work for them but do know people who are very senior managers and others who are union people. Just passing on info that has been told to me directly. I don’t work for anyone at the moment in aviation and may never again but hey that’s life.

[galdian]

Quite right I don’t work for them but do know people who are very senior managers and others who are union people. Just passing on info that has been told to me directly. I don’t work for anyone at the moment in aviation and may never again but hey that’s life.

Always enjoyed Ollie's contributions, personally may see things differently at times but FFS read the last four words "...but hey that's life"
Don't blame the universe for sh*t happening - deal with it as best you can....but never concede control.

Cheers

[Lepper Messiah]

Yea because they were told either you agree or we're closing the operation. Somehow I don't think that would work in air nz.

I wasn't told that. Nothing like it

[InZed]

I agree. Air NZ has for the last decade been a nimble, creative and flexible example of excellence. I can only assume there is a reason why something like leave without pay wasn’t implemented. Considering the international recovery is going to be slow, you can’t help think they’ve missed a trick here.
The international recovery is going to be extremely slow... Especially as seen with North America + Europe literally giving up on containment and reopening borders. USA and Europe still has widespread community transmission and no sign of that rectifying any time soon with the riots. I doubt NZ will have any form of North America passenger service even in 12 months.

Except there are some glimmers of hope that NZ could launch back into PVG/TPE first. Taiwan has had 3 new cases in roughly a month (similar to NZ/AU numbers and the much hyped 'Tasman Bubble'). Could we see PVG/TPE entering this bubble in the coming months? Australia released estimated dates that show the Tasman bubble reopening in one month, if that works well, there's no reason NZ couldn't launch daily PVG/TPE and drive international demand.

Speaking for myself on this one, as soon as they launch a new international destination, I want to be on that first plane for a holiday. I have AirNZ$$ (they kindly credited me :mad:) so have to spend ASAP, otherwise it's going to be a lot of NPE returns to use it all up.

I wasn't told that. Nothing like it
VANZ were told that immediate LWOP may save the NZ operation. It did not.

Additionally, Air NZ Link pilots were told last week that forward bookings are better than expected and the schedule requires all 'hibernation' crew to be brought out and utilised. They had excess crew and could not keep everyone current, so some went into hibernation. Friends that work the Milford flights said that they're really busy and that NZMF airport was full over the weekend with Kiwi Tourists. Makes you wonder if the Air NZ Link redundancies will be brought back this side of Christmas.

And if demand really continues with domestic tourism increases so much, it makes you wonder whether some furloughed Jet guys might be offered contracts to help out the Links.

[viatheairporthold]

Additionally, Air NZ Link pilots were told last week that forward bookings are better than expected and the schedule requires all 'hibernation' crew to be brought out and utilised. They had excess crew and could not keep everyone current, so some went into hibernation. Friends that work the Milford flights said that they're really busy and that NZMF airport was full over the weekend with Kiwi Tourists. Makes you wonder if the Air NZ Link redundancies will be brought back this side of Christmas.

And if demand really continues with domestic tourism increases so much, it makes you wonder whether some furloughed Jet guys might be offered contracts to help out the Links.

Supposedly Foran was in the Auckland regional crew room the other day saying July bookings are 80% better than they forecast. Fingers crossed it isn't just a post-lock down blip and it is kept up. Once socially distancing on planes is gone hopefully they can do some better deals and full the planes entirely.

[KiwiAvi8er]

The international recovery is going to be extremely slow... Especially as seen with North America + Europe literally giving up on containment and reopening borders. USA and Europe still has widespread community transmission and no sign of that rectifying any time soon with the riots. I doubt NZ will have any form of North America passenger service even in 12 months.

Except there are some glimmers of hope that NZ could launch back into PVG/TPE first. Taiwan has had 3 new cases in roughly a month (similar to NZ/AU numbers and the much hyped 'Tasman Bubble'). Could we see PVG/TPE entering this bubble in the coming months? Australia released estimated dates that show the Tasman bubble reopening in one month, if that works well, there's no reason NZ couldn't launch daily PVG/TPE and drive international demand.

Speaking for myself on this one, as soon as they launch a new international destination, I want to be on that first plane for a holiday. I have AirNZ$$ (they kindly credited me :mad:) so have to spend ASAP, otherwise it's going to be a lot of NPE returns to use it all up.


VANZ were told that immediate LWOP may save the NZ operation. It did not.

Additionally, Air NZ Link pilots were told last week that forward bookings are better than expected and the schedule requires all 'hibernation' crew to be brought out and utilised. They had excess crew and could not keep everyone current, so some went into hibernation. Friends that work the Milford flights said that they're really busy and that NZMF airport was full over the weekend with Kiwi Tourists. Makes you wonder if the Air NZ Link redundancies will be brought back this side of Christmas.

And if demand really continues with domestic tourism increases so much, it makes you wonder whether some furloughed Jet guys might be offered contracts to help out the Links.

Don’t jump the gun too much on the Link recovery. With level 1 likely next week and the removal of social distancing on flights things are looking promising. However, we haven’t seen the full brunt of unemployment in this country yet.

People are traveling around NZ for tourism but most will only be able to afford one or two trips a year. That won’t be sustainable to get the Link schedule anywhere near pre Covid with slip crewing in regional ports etc. Signs are good but talk of the few made redundant returning before Xmas or even recruiting Jet guys temporarily is extremely optimistic and hopefully those affected, if they’re reading this don’t get their hopes up needlessly.

[Slezy9]

People are traveling around NZ for tourism but most will only be able to afford one or two trips a year. That won’t be sustainable to get the Link schedule anywhere near pre Covid with slip crewing in regional ports etc. Signs are good but talk of the few made redundant returning before Xmas or even recruiting Jet guys temporarily is extremely optimistic and hopefully those affected, if they’re reading this don’t get their hopes up needlessly.

Pre-COVID 60% of domestic pax were on an international journey. That's a lot of Kiwi's flying around domestically to make it back up!

[InZed]

Greg Foran just sent out this... so more redundancies coming.

“Today, we start Phase 2 to remove around $150 million additional from our wages bill as part of a suite of other changes to our cost base to put Air New Zealand in the shape to be able to meet our 800-day ambition for August 2022.

As soon as possible we will be engaging with you and your unions as we investigate how best to reduce the labour bill. We are open to explore all options with unions that help meet our cost saving goals, but I do want to be clear that we need to brace ourselves for more discussions around leave without pay, reduced hours, job share, voluntary exits with redundancies as the last option. Thinking this through carefully will be important so that as the airline regains more customers and routes we are ready to take that volume on. I am really sorry we are in a situation of needing to reduce our wages bills further, but I believe this is what we need to do with some urgency to get through the Survive phase.

...

As we Thrive we will not focus on size, but on quality. We will be smaller, flying fewer routes but we will not change our outstanding reputation for care, compassion and heart. The pride that comes with being our country’s national carrier.“

[waren9]

Starting to look like Ollie Onions senior mgmnt/union sources may've been right

[KiwiAvi8er]

Will there be any appetite to further the Flexi-Flying to say 70% or 50% as a collective to once again defer a number of redundancies?

A much harder sell for the unions this time round I think.

[oldm8ey]

Will there be any appetite to further the Flexi-Flying to say 70% or 50% as a collective to once again defer a number of redundancies?

A much harder sell for the unions this time round I think.
Given the 14% was voted up ay 95% I would say there is more appetite. Hard to quantify though.

[InZed]

Given the 14% was voted up ay 95% I would say there is more appetite. Hard to quantify though.

Makes you wonder if the unions knew there would be deeper cuts to begin with, so just started with a 14% pay cut. I will expect to see the SLT take a further cut before pilots do though.

Does anyone know the news on the NZ engineers? They've managed to avoid all media it appears.

[Ollie Onion]

All as I can say the information I got came from someone very senior and this looks to be the ground work for those cuts. I am hoping that there is enough flex and willingness in the workforce (not just pilots) to get the gains required to reduce those proposed losses to zero. Pilot terms and conditions in ALL airlines will take a while to recover back to 2019 levels.

[Chris2303]

Greg Foran just sent out this... so more redundancies coming.

“Today, we start Phase 2 to remove around $150 million additional from our wages bill as part of a suite of other changes to our cost base to put Air New Zealand in the shape to be able to meet our 800-day ambition for August 2022.

As soon as possible we will be engaging with you and your unions as we investigate how best to reduce the labour bill. We are open to explore all options with unions that help meet our cost saving goals, but I do want to be clear that we need to brace ourselves for more discussions around leave without pay, reduced hours, job share, voluntary exits with redundancies as the last option. Thinking this through carefully will be important so that as the airline regains more customers and routes we are ready to take that volume on. I am really sorry we are in a situation of needing to reduce our wages bills further, but I believe this is what we need to do with some urgency to get through the Survive phase.

...

As we Thrive we will not focus on size, but on quality. We will be smaller, flying fewer routes but we will not change our outstanding reputation for care, compassion and heart. The pride that comes with being our country’s national carrier.“

One word: Walmart!

[73qanda]

Would the target be met if all employees voted to go on 50% salary for 3 months?

[BO0M]

Makes you wonder if the unions knew there would be deeper cuts to begin with, so just started with a 14% pay cut. I will expect to see the SLT take a further cut before pilots do though.

Does anyone know the news on the NZ engineers? They've managed to avoid all media it appears.

Unfortunately the redundancies have started there as well, large numbers were given their notices on Wednesday.

Ginger Bears had similar issues to the jet pilots where a lot of the older boys close to retirement put their hands up to go early but Air NZ management turned it down becasue it's cheaper to get rid of the younger boys and girls.

Bloody shame.

[whisperjet146]

Pre-COVID 60% of domestic pax were on an international journey. That's a lot of Kiwi's flying around domestically to make it back up!

the vast bulk of that 60% will have been tourists on Air NZ National trunk flights to and from the AKL hub. AKL-ZQN,CHC,WLG.

Most of the regional pax with international journeys travelled either first flight out or evening tie down. Especially for AU and pacific connections.

[purplemonkydishwashr]

RNZ interview with Foran says Airports, Cabin crew and Pilots (and others) as targets for further cost cutting.

[ElZilcho]

I was expecting them to ask for deeper cuts, but not so soon after signing the AFFA... guess the patients really are running the asylum. The agreement was signed for 3 rosters extendable to 9 and the inks barely dried. The amount of time wasted to basically start the process all over again....

Anyway, Foran wants to slash costs (wages) now, during his “survive” phase through to the end of August. Pilot notice period for redundancy is 3 months meaning it wouldn’t have any effect until September... probably October after we go through the motions again. There would also be no F20’s if they made another cut significant enough to have any tangible effect on costs.

Take note of the table in the AFFA agreement. We signed for 14% but it goes to 50%. 777 will soon be grounded until at least the end of the year. I expect we’ll be faced with Fleet/Rank proposals for varying amounts of Flexi or LWOP.

Should we refuse, the CEA and AFFA still apply. Foran might chop the bottom again, but I don’t see he would crew the Bus if he did. Word is, with the Tasman bubble looking likely, the Airbus fleet will be at its 70% target by the end of the year and they simply can’t train 180 FO’s in the next 6 months.

I’d say things are about to get ugly. The most Senior fleet is grounded, the most Junior will be doing to bulk of the work. We all know how redundancies work, but how many 777 Pilots will voluntarily sign up for 50% or LWOP? Would Carrie? :}

[inthenightgarden]

Thoughts go out to all the affected employee's, its not a nice situation to be in but hang in there.

In my humble opinion Air NZ have really dropped the ball of late. The redundancies don't seem to have been particularly well handled and personally I feel there are times when the CEO should front the media and not send out one of the troops. And lastly, although it's not legally required, I would argue its morally required to provide refunds to pax rather than credits. People are hurting out there and every dollar counts.

[oldm8ey]

Thoughts go out to all the affected employee's, its not a nice situation to be in but hang in there.

And lastly, although it's not legally required, I would argue its morally required to provide refunds to pax rather than credits. People are hurting out there and every dollar counts.
I suspect that the cash situation is so dire that they can't give refunds and remain solvent.

[waren9]

I agree, the PR handling of the refunds issue has been poor. GF is in the media now as saying offering refunds would sink the joint.

They have gone to ground on the communication. Getting a refund even on fully refundable tickets is near impossible. They have removed that option from the phone app, the website and try getting hold of anyone on the 0800 number. It wont even let you hold, after a pre recorded message it just ends the call. Accessing any credit to book another flight also requires using the uncontactable call centre.

No wonder it took one passenger to take out a classified ad in the newspaper asking to be contacted by them.

Badly handled.

[ElZilcho]

PR has been terrible yes, as the Exco need to say what they mean and not simply infer through management speak. However, are things really so different across the ditch? Or anywhere in the World where Airlines are not legally required to refund? (genuine question as I haven't really being following it).

Not sure how many of you (or the general public) have worked in a call centre before, but you simply cannot throw more staff into one overnight and call it a day. Assuming there's enough floor space, they need desks, chairs, phones which the IT guys need to patch back tho the main switch.. assuming it's not full. They need training... now try do all that during level 4 lockdown (our call centre hasn't been sent offshore yet).

So my question to the PPrune panel of experts, how should it of been handled differently? How does one reduce wait times in a call centre when the Government has locked the country down? How do you roll out new software to deal with credits overnight?

Worlds going to **** yet somehow there's also infinite resources to deal with customer demands.

[InZed]

PR has been terrible yes, as the Exco need to say what they mean and not simply infer through management speak. However, are things really so different across the ditch? Or anywhere in the World where Airlines are not legally required to refund? (genuine question as I haven't really being following it).

Not sure how many of you (or the general public) have worked in a call centre before, but you simply cannot throw more staff into one overnight and call it a day. Assuming there's enough floor space, they need desks, chairs, phones which the IT guys need to patch back tho the main switch.. assuming it's not full. They need training... now try do all that during level 4 lockdown (our call centre hasn't been sent offshore yet).

So my question to the PPrune panel of experts, how should it of been handled differently? How does one reduce wait times in a call centre when the Government has locked the country down? How do you roll out new software to deal with credits overnight?

Worlds going to **** yet somehow there's also infinite resources to deal with customer demands.

Well said EZ. I appreciate a lot want refunds (I am also in the boat of holding a credit) but if the company issues refunds to everyone and risks insolvency, it will benefit no one. The negative media isn’t great, but a lot of companies are in this boat.

Much like this affected by Virgin’s voluntary administration, no one is getting refunds there (including some family members of mine). But everyone is more concerned about the airline actually surviving to be able to use the credit!

The media and the public are creating a **** storm, and everyone seems to think that the company is unsinkable.

People agreed to the terms and conditions of the tickets. And now it doesn’t suit them... I think the scape goat that is occurring isn’t entirely fair. And now Fair Go is attacking the company for refunds.

[waren9]

PR has been terrible yes, as the Exco need to say what they mean and not simply infer through management speak. However, are things really so different across the ditch? Or anywhere in the World where Airlines are not legally required to refund? (genuine question as I haven't really being following it).

Not sure how many of you (or the general public) have worked in a call centre before, but you simply cannot throw more staff into one overnight and call it a day. Assuming there's enough floor space, they need desks, chairs, phones which the IT guys need to patch back tho the main switch.. assuming it's not full. They need training... now try do all that during level 4 lockdown (our call centre hasn't been sent offshore yet).

So my question to the PPrune panel of experts, how should it of been handled differently? How does one reduce wait times in a call centre when the Government has locked the country down? How do you roll out new software to deal with credits overnight?

Worlds going to **** yet somehow there's also infinite resources to deal with customer demands.


I didn't have any trouble getting a hold of the call centre during the depths of level 4. May have been lucky? Only since. Just seems to me they have done a "Jetstar" and purposely gone out of their way to make customers lives hard particularly around the refunds for genuinely refundable tickets and those trying to meaningfully use their credit without getting stung extra.

There's been a definite and intentional shift in how customers are being treated and it's at odds with the "So, Thrive" paragraphs in Gregs recent email.

[ElZilcho]

When speaking to someone I know in the Call Centre, it got a bit chaotic during level 4 but when the Airline pleaded with people to only call in for flights within 48hrs (from memory), it became more manageable... although some people were still calling in about their 2021 bookings.
Once the full scale of COVID was realised however, it went nuts, especially in respect to refunds, but again, resources are not endless and you can't just bolster the call centre at the drop of the hat. Especially a local one. I'm sure "Off-shore" Call centres have people they can move around to bolster specific companies requirements as demand changes. Probably another reason why so many companies no longer keep them in house.

Unfortunately, whenever someone has to wait X hours to get through (or can't) the Media will write a full page article about. But Joe Blogs who got through and received a full refund, well, you need to sift through the reader comments on social media if you want their version of events. People have been getting refunds on compassionate grounds, but it's extremely time consuming as it's on a case by case basis. Something people don't like to admit, is there are people out there trying to take the piss so it has to be done manually. Plenty of refund requests have been for flights that weren't actually cancelled, but the event the people were flying to was... or for future flights that have not been cancelled yet.

At the end of the day, none of us are blind to how the media operate. Yes, it has been a shambles and the Airline(s) are playing catch up, but the media thrives on negative articles not positive ones. We also know that Airlines, like many Business, survive on future bookings revenue. If we want to talk about an industry wide shakeup then I'm all for it, but that's a discussion for tomorrow. People need to read the T's & C's of the tickets they purchase not just the Grab a Seat price.

[crosscutter]

Air NZ is burning through about $35M a week.
Qantas as a comparison is burning through about $40M a week, but has much more revenue coming in today and into the immediate future.

Qantas is soon to announce their restructure...significant job losses are inevitable. This is no speculation on what will happen to pilots though. Qantas is no shining light when it comes to employment relations. My point is, and I’ve made it before, getting paid 50,60,70 or 90% of your salary whilst you are not working is shooting yourself in the foot. Agreeing to a further small pay cut to save some jobs is putting a band aid on when surgery is required. I’m gobsmacked at the piecemeal process which is costing not only jobs now but also potentially the rate of reemployment at the other side.

I genuinely don’t like seeing pilots lose their job. I see a better way but the leadership seems lacking. I respect people will disagree with me. My thoughts to all.

[ElZilcho]

The biggest problem Crosscutter, is we simply can't do anything "by fleet". Air NZ is ruled by Seniority and the only way around it is either by agreement or legal challenge... sadly, I worry me might force ourselves down the latter path if/when all the Senior Pilots sit arms folded when Foran asks 777 Pilots to take LWOP or Part-time.

Because of how our CEA works, a senior Pilot on the 777 can sit at home doing nothing and demand to be moved to a fleet that is flying in order to retain their paycheque. This is essentially the notional process, and under normal circumstances it works. But there's nothing "normal" about COVID. I'd say Air NZ has chopped about as much off the bottom as they can without facing the "double training" problem.. that is, a senior Pilot gets down-trained to the A320 for 6-12 months then re-trained back to where they were when the Redundant Pilots are recalled.

Based on the current number of redundancies, I cannot see the above occuring anytime in the next 2-3 years. If they take another cut however, a lot of down-training movements will be temporary.

I'm all but certain Foran will propose 777 Pilots (in particular but not exclusively) accept LWOP or maybe 50% Pay for the next 3-6 months. If that is refused on the basis of "Mah Contract!" then he will be left with only 2 options. More Redundancies or a Legal Challenge against Seniority... both come with additional costs and logistical problems, but if there were ever a time to successfully challenge the "Iron Clad" Seniority clauses in our CEA, it's now. I hope my colleagues can see that and don't force his hand. The "survive" phase is only for the next 3 months. I hope we don't see permanent damage to our CEA for the sake of 3 months sacrifice.

[Ragnor]

Qantas is soon to announce their restructure...significant job losses are inevitable. This is no speculation on what will happen to pilots though. Qantas is no shining light when it comes to employment relations. My point is, and I’ve made it before, getting paid 50,60,70 or 90% of your salary whilst you are not working is shooting yourself in the foot. Agreeing to a further small pay cut to save some jobs is putting a band aid on when surgery is required. I’m gobsmacked at the piecemeal process which is costing not only jobs now but also potentially the rate of reemployment at the other side.
.

I don’t think QF will be making to many redundant in the group due to cost and the fact they will need all 73 and 320 crew reality is one airline is struggling and the future does look bleak. Australia EBA and IR laws allow the provision of stand down if no useful work which. Having QF and JQ international crew on stand down will not cost all that much, cheaper than redundancy payouts anyway.

[viatheairporthold]

Any word/rumours on what this new round of wage cutting will have on regional crew? Jet I guess hasn't changed much since the last round but regional I understand has picked up quicker than expected.

[27/09]

I was expecting them to ask for deeper cuts, but not so soon after signing the AFFA... guess the patients really are running the asylum. The agreement was signed for 3 rosters extendable to 9 and the inks barely dried. The amount of time wasted to basically start the process all over again....

Anyway, Foran wants to slash costs (wages) now, during his “survive” phase through to the end of August. Pilot notice period for redundancy is 3 months meaning it wouldn’t have any effect until September... probably October after we go through the motions again. There would also be no F20’s if they made another cut significant enough to have any tangible effect on costs.

Take note of the table in the AFFA agreement. We signed for 14% but it goes to 50%. 777 will soon be grounded until at least the end of the year. I expect we’ll be faced with Fleet/Rank proposals for varying amounts of Flexi or LWOP.

Should we refuse, the CEA and AFFA still apply. Foran might chop the bottom again, but I don’t see he would crew the Bus if he did. Word is, with the Tasman bubble looking likely, the Airbus fleet will be at its 70% target by the end of the year and they simply can’t train 180 FO’s in the next 6 months.

I’d say things are about to get ugly. The most Senior fleet is grounded, the most Junior will be doing to bulk of the work. We all know how redundancies work, but how many 777 Pilots will voluntarily sign up for 50% or LWOP? Would Carrie? :}

Would Carrie? I bet not. She's like a cockroach, I don't know how she's survived so long at the Koru.

[KiwiAvi8er]

Would Carrie? I bet not. She's like a cockroach, I don't know how she's survived so long at the Koru.

She ticks all the diversity boxes so she won't be going anywhere. During the search for the new CEO her name had popped up in a few conversations, thank christ that never eventuated.

[dragon man]

For what it’s worth there will be redundancy of pilots in Qantas. They are working on a package for the over sixties at the moment and my guess is if that doesn’t get enough it will be compulsory redundancy.

[cloudsurfng]

For what it’s worth there will be redundancy of pilots in Qantas. They are working on a package for the over sixties at the moment and my guess is if that doesn’t get enough it will be compulsory redundancy.

do you have a guesstimate on the number? I would have thought around 300-350 :{

[Ragnor]

Well either way, to be on any international fleet wether at Virgin, QANTAS, AirNZ or Jetstar there will be downsizing by how much who knows. I was referencing Domestic I do t think QF or JQ will get rid of to many from what I have seen over the last week people want to holiday and soon as borders open the gradual increase will commence. Jetstar already ran a lean ship always relied on WOD payments to crew flights so maybe they could have the right numbers. Virgin will be smaller that’s the only definite at the moment and QF will be ready to pick up the slack.

[dragon man]

do you have a guesstimate on the number? I would have thought around 300-350 :{

I was thinking a bit higher however it depends if they choose to shaft the Jetstar 787 pilots as they are cheaper to make redundant then repaint those aircraft in Qantas colours and crew them with Qantas pilots. As I see things jobkeeper at the moment finishes on September 30 Qantas is required to give 90 days notice of redundancies, so I’m thinking October it will start and it won’t only be pilots.

[Ollie Onion]

I think Jetstar will handle it by not re-opening bases, it is in the EBA and the CEA in NZ that pilots can be made redundant according to effected BASES and RANK and EQUIPMENT so it would be easy to say, CNS, PER and CHC won’t reopen. It seems to be the way they are going as all planned flying at the moment and for the foreseeable future is out of the main bases.

[cloudsurfng]

I was thinking a bit higher however it depends if they choose to shaft the Jetstar 787 pilots as they are cheaper to make redundant then repaint those aircraft in Qantas colours and crew them with Qantas pilots. As I see things jobkeeper at the moment finishes on September 30 Qantas is required to give 90 days notice of redundancies, so I’m thinking October it will start and it won’t only be pilots.

are you referring to group wide as higher or mainline? I was thinking 300-350 mainline. Unaware of anything relating to JQ 787...are they going?

just so sad for everyone...no matter your tail. Look after each other, call a mate, whatever. China have a lot to answer for.

[Chad Gates]

the number I've heard being circulated is 400 in QF mainline.

[Blueskymine]

You guys are just speculating rubbish.

QF haven’t made a pilot redundant in most of our lifetimes.

There is a demographic problem at the top with retirements this decade from lack of recruitment. There is also the stand down provisions in the eba to cover any surpluses.

So my guess is there will be a bit of fruit offered to the 747 guys to avoid an expensive RIN. Everyone else will roster share and the use of stand down will be applied for as long as needed.

Shorthaul will be largely back at work by the fourth quarter.

Jetstar? Who knows. But it’s a lesson to put all your eggs in the Bali basket. The entire operation is exposed to any hiccups over there. It’ll be a volcano next. Those 787s would come in mighty handy on the QF 2 crew network in the future. Jakarta, Bali, transcontinental, NZ etc.

[cloudsurfng]

Mate I hope you’re right

all depends on the plan they e just come up with. AIPA will know next week

anyway, apologies to the ANZ crew.

I hope you guys and girls can have some certainty soon.

[27/09]

She ticks all the diversity boxes so she won't be going anywhere. During the search for the new CEO her name had popped up in a few conversations, thank christ that never eventuated.
I understand from a few mates that her last stint as a CEO (Eagle GM) didn't go all that well. I heard a bit of "Stitching" was prescribed in an attempt to rebuild the relationships with staff.

[6080ft]

Every employee group at Air NZ, who has had Carrie as a manager has been shafted and disrespected in some way. Just look at her run in with the engineers early last year.
She destroyed the moral at Eagle, and had a total lack of respect for the CEA with her novel interpretations of long standing clauses.

I wouldn’t trust her as far as I could throw her.

[ElZilcho]

Every employee group at Air NZ, who has had Carrie as a manager has been shafted and disrespected in some way. Just look at her run in with the engineers early last year.
She destroyed the moral at Eagle, and had a total lack of respect for the CEA with her novel interpretations of long standing clauses.

I wouldn’t trust her as far as I could throw her.

This is my biggest concern. Her “management” style is confrontational and vindictive, almost like a spoiled teenager trying to get their way. I fear she’ll do more damage to the Relationship between Pilots and Management than COVID will.

Look at the engineers. They worked tirelessly to keep us operating through the RR engine debacle only to have their overtime attacked and select details of their CEA released to the media out of context to garner public support.

HPE was already on life support, I’d say she’s about to kill it.

[6080ft]

This is my biggest concern. Her “management” style is confrontational and vindictive, almost like a spoiled teenager trying to get their way. I fear she’ll do more damage to the Relationship between Pilots and Management than COVID will.

Look at the engineers. They worked tirelessly to keep us operating through the RR engine debacle only to have their overtime attacked and select details of their CEA released to the media out of context to garner public support.

HPE was already on life support, I’d say she’s about to kill it.

Totally agree. Her behaviour was totally contrary to the code of conduct. Oh but guess who the code of conduct does not cover?!!

[Kiwiconehead]

Her “management” style is confrontational and vindictive, almost like a spoiled teenager trying to get their way.

She would get a gig at Qantas no problems

[Kiwi9]

Has anyone seen the latest of BA? Im just worried that the company might take more drastic action and make a heap of redundancies and rehire on a completely new contract or get rid of people by fleet if no one is willing to come to the party for short term concessions.

[ElZilcho]

Has anyone seen the latest of BA? Im just worried that the company might take more drastic action and make a heap of redundancies and rehire on a completely new contract or get rid of people by fleet if no one is willing to come to the party for short term concessions.

Our CEA prevents either from happening. They could of course take it up with ERA, particularly Seniority, but that will cost both time and money. I agree, backing them into a corner would be ill-advisable, but as ALPA said in today's email, we're the only Unionised group (so far) that has agreed to a Salary reduction on top of Redundancies and included Furlough into our CEA to reduce the immediate cost of those Redundancies.

Will they ask for a higher % Salary reduction for the next 3 months in accordance with the AFFA table? Or will they ask specific fleet/ranks to "voluntarily" take LWOP? Hard to say. As they can crew the (few) Widebodies with Capt's and FO's, perhaps they'll pressure the SO's (under fear of rendundancy) to accept 3 months LWOP. Time will tell I suppose, but if we accept Greg's email as written, he sees further redundancies as a last resort (as they too cost time and money before having any effect).

[Lapon]

Every employee group at Air NZ, who has had Carrie as a manager has been shafted and disrespected in some way. Just look at her run in with the engineers early last year.
She destroyed the moral at Eagle, and had a total lack of respect for the CEA with her novel interpretations of long standing clauses.

I wouldn’t trust her as far as I could throw her.

Is this the Carrie H who supposedly held a 'close relationship' with a certain NZ exec (who long ago departed for Airways) for her rise out of nothingness?
How the hell is that incompetent woman still on the payroll? :yuk:

[viatheairporthold]

Regional pilots are to be back on full pay from next roster with the RAFFA agreement ending due to being back to over 60% July 2019 capacity. Due to inefficiencies in the schedule that is a requirement for 85% the crew they had July 2019 already.

[InZed]

Regional pilots are to be back on full pay from next roster with the RAFFA agreement ending due to being back to over 60% July 2019 capacity. Due to inefficiencies in the schedule that is a requirement for 85% the crew they had July 2019 already.

Correct. But their RAFFA doesn't have the same clauses in there that the Jet AFFA does for the returning of their redundant/furloughed pilots.

For the Jets, when the rosters hit (or are set to hit) 60 hours, then redundant/furloughed pilots must be brought back to reduce it below 60 hours. And only WHEN all redundant/furloughed pilots have returned, can they cancel the AFFA, should it still be in place.

It is unfortunate that the RAFFA didn't retain similar wording, because now there are 50-odd guys and girls struggling to find supermarket jobs while the people just above them on the seniority are back on full-time pay and rosters.

[viatheairporthold]

Yes that is unfortunate, I assume that means the deferred crew who kept their jobs for the life of the RAFFA are now safe (for now at least), but my understanding is there is no clear wording regarding them either once the RAFFA is canned. It would be interesting to see how many new pilots started since July 2019 so we can gauge how many pilots '85% July 2019' actually is.

[InZed]

Yes that is unfortunate, I assume that means the deferred crew who kept their jobs for the life of the RAFFA are now safe (for now at least), but my understanding is there is no clear wording regarding them either once the RAFFA is canned. It would be interesting to see how many new pilots started since July 2019 so we can gauge how many pilots '85% July 2019' actually is.

Just found the info from a mate. Apparently:
578 pilots on the RSL as of 8th July 2019.
621 total including a group starting in March 2020.

[viatheairporthold]

Ok so 85% of July 2019 crewing requirements means they currently need 491 pilots but I guess if things continue to improve that could increase reasonably quickly

[InZed]

Just to be clear here, and please correct me if I’ve misunderstood, but rehiring of redundant pilots if incentive goes over 60 hours only applies during the AFFA. The AFFA can be extended out to Jan 21 as it stands. Once the AFFA ends in Jan 21 then all terms return per the CEA. The CEA has no clause detailing when pilots will be rehired having been made redundant, meaning that per the CEA the Company can operate the fleets to as high an incentive value as they like without rehiring.

Correct. But everyone knows the AFFA will get through a second 9-month extension out to almost the end of 2021.

Considering that all we are waiting on is a vaccine, I would say that the end of 2021 is about when everyone sees it all picking back up. After all, it took 20 months to create a SARS vaccine. 7 months for an EBOLA vaccine and less than 6 months for ZIKA.

Covid vaccine trials started just after 65 days. I imagine the world will see worldwide vaccine spread by the end of 2020.

[Yeah nah]

Correct. But everyone knows the AFFA will get through a second 9-month extension out to almost the end of 2021.

Don't count on it. I don't think that there will be that many willing to accept ongoing reductions in conditions.

[Slezy9]

After all, it took 20 months to create a SARS vaccine.....
Covid vaccine trials started just after 65 days. I imagine the world will see worldwide vaccine spread by the end of 2020.

There has never been a Corona virus vaccine (SARS is a corona virus) and there is no vaccine for SARS. I think it’s folly to pin hopes on a vaccine. Unfortunately I don’t see much international flying to and from NZ any time soon.

[ElZilcho]

There has never been a Corona virus vaccine (SARS is a corona virus) and there is no vaccine for SARS. I think it’s folly to pin hopes on a vaccine. Unfortunately I don’t see much international flying to and from NZ any time soon.

True, there is no vaccine for SARS, but they also stopped developing it (at least vastly cut funding) when it mutated and subsequently disappeared. The World got incredibly lucy SARS but didn't really learn much.

With COVID-19, the amount of money being pumped into finding a vaccine is substantial, with a few looking promising. However, even if they did create a vaccine tomorrow, it would take a solid 12 months to have any appreciable effect due to production and distribution.

[Ragnor]

7.8 Billion ppl in the world, they 7 types of vaccines to make it effective. Don’t pin your hopes on a cure.

[patty50]

There are already a significant number of vaccines, now we just wait and see if they get sick less than the placebo.

Apparently paying millennials to intentionally receive the virus and see if they get sick is unethical so we sit and watch 7k people per day die while we wait.

[InZed]

I think that any extension past Jan 21 will not pass with the same majority as last time. Seeing the trouble the Company is in currently with manning due to making so many F20 redundant I think they are bluffing when they hint at more redundancies. Either that, or probably more likely, they simply haven't thought it through properly, much like the other decisions they've made recently.

I know I'm probably on the pessimistic (realist?) side but I cant see any hiring for at least three years, more likely five.

Edit: ps. Having looked back at 2019 rosters I think average incentive only went over 60 twice. Average incentive is always dragged down so low by all the inclusions that clause 5 in the AFFA has no chance of playing a part.

Didn't go over 60 hours more than twice? Well we know which fleet you were on then 😂 because other fleets went over 90hrs numerous times. And I heard that some SOs hit over 90hrs in December.

Not too different from the 777 rosters this month, with all crew almost hitting 60hrs. And the 787 SOs also almost hitting 60hrs. While the 787 Captains and FOs roster average hitting almost 82hrs...

Furloughed jet cabin crew have already been called back and offered immediate reemployment, while ones that have turned it down have been offered a September course as an alternative.

Regionals pilots are all back full time in a few weeks and those furloughed are rumoured to return in time for Summer.

With Qantas announcing the following largely double-daily services (below), plus Jetstar.... I think you’ll see AirNZ launching a huge amount of flights to combat the threat... Especially with Virgin even set to try punch some services back into NZ despite the recent article claiming the “NZ operation never made any money”. Granted the 14-day quarantine is still in place, but there will be a battle in the near future and if it’s not this school holidays, it’ll be the next one.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1027x1570/f4cb87ec_dc21_423b_86e4_9fb5f6c91e23_510e5f9963c2852348fc816 393e02fd128d7ab14.jpeg

[ElZilcho]

Don't get me wrong, Im hoping you're right! But for R6 and R7 all long haul are under 60IP, with plenty of room for 777 pilots to move to 787 and lower the IP there.

And if hours do start to get up by then what will the response be from the pilot group. As I said before, I don't think there will be the same ballot response if the question is maintaining the pay cut for another year vs rehiring pilots.

Yes once the 777 Pilots move across IP will likely go down on the 787, however 787 Pilots are also being moved down the A320.
Still yet to hear exactly how the shuffle is going to happen. Company seems adamant they can do the notional process in one sweep. There's been some push-back on this from the Pilot group however, as it should be done by fleet/rank so any notional vacancies can filter down (specifically C20).

As I read section 11 of the CEA, especially 11.5.2.1, I don't think they can keep flogging the 787 crews above 75 hours for more than 3 rosters. Desperate times and all with COVID, but it seems silly to not utilize the 777 a bit more to spread the work around during the re-shuffle.

In terms of the Ballot, they go hand in hand. The 60IP trigger to re-hire Pilots is only valid for the duration of the AFFA. If we vote not to extend it, then the we give the Company the ability to flog us on max hours without hiring anyone back. Even at 100hrs, IP is still cheaper than hiring more Pilots. I believe being consistently above 80-85 causes Flight and Duty limitations and increase in sickness, but if that becomes the re-hiring trigger then it could be a long wait for those to come back.

Personally, as long my colleagues are redundant I'll be voting to extend it.

[InZed]

Yes once the 777 Pilots move across IP will likely go down on the 787, however 787 Pilots are also being moved down the A320.
Still yet to hear exactly how the shuffle is going to happen. Company seems adamant they can do the notional process in one sweep. There's been some push-back on this from the Pilot group however, as it should be done by fleet/rank so any notional vacancies can filter down (specifically C20).

As I read section 11 of the CEA, especially 11.5.2.1, I don't think they can keep flogging the 787 crews above 75 hours for more than 3 rosters. Desperate times and all with COVID, but it seems silly to not utilize the 777 a bit more to spread the work around during the re-shuffle.

In terms of the Ballot, they go hand in hand. The 60IP trigger to re-hire Pilots is only valid for the duration of the AFFA. If we vote not to extend it, then the we give the Company the ability to flog us on max hours without hiring anyone back. Even at 100hrs, IP is still cheaper than hiring more Pilots. I believe being consistently above 80-85 causes Flight and Duty limitations and increase in sickness, but if that becomes the re-hiring trigger then it could be a long wait for those to come back.

Personally, as long my colleagues are redundant I'll be voting to extend it.

I agree with your last statement 100%. And with IP I believe it’s long haul vs short haul IP... so the average of 60 hrs across the 787/777 (eg. 85hrs on the 787 and 25hrs on the 777 is still under the threshold). If I understand correctly.

I really feel for the regional guys that are furloughed and in no mans land right now. No time frame and no promises. If regional captains aren’t moving to the jets, then they’re not going to get rehired anytime soon either. They could be there for years... although that’s was the furloughed jet guys are realistically looking at, even if the AFFA goes for a round 2 (18mths) or even round 3 (27mths).

We are all just sitting around anxious at the uncertainty...

Meanwhile, a friend from Menzies said that Emirates is limiting the number of passenger arrivals into AKL due to the MOH running low on available hotel rooms in the north half of the north island... Glad I’m sitting at home tbh.

[theSOD]

Meanwhile, a friend from Menzies said that Emirates is limiting the number of passenger arrivals into AKL due to the MOH running low on available hotel rooms in the north half of the north island... Glad I’m sitting at home tbh.

Why not utilise CHC? Only 3 hotels in Christchurch currently catering to quarantine returnees into NZ. Plenty of empty hotels in the city. Besides the weekly SQ arrival, all are being flown down domestically, why not reduce the pressure on AKL a little?

[ElZilcho]

Why not utilise CHC? Only 3 hotels in Christchurch currently catering to quarantine returnees into NZ. Plenty of empty hotels in the city. Besides the weekly SQ arrival, all are being flown down domestically, why not reduce the pressure on AKL a little?

Probably because “they” can’t agree on who will pay for the domestic flight to CHC (and back?).

I’ve heard through the gossip channels that many of the “kiwis” retuning home are non-English speaking relatives of citizens already here... mostly from India and other Asian countries looking for a COVID-19 shelter and all expenses paid 14 days in a hotel. With more foreign carriers returning to NZ with “citizens” requiring a 14 day Quarantine, the big questions now are how many can we realistically take and who’s going to pay for it?

[theSOD]

Probably because “they” can’t agree on who will pay for the domestic flight to CHC (and back?).


I was more meaning why not allow EK or other airlines for that matter to fly into CHC or even WLG rather than funneling everyone into AKL and then scrabbling to put on domestic flights (payed by us) for the ones that don't live around the north half of the north island.

[Chris2303]

I was more meaning why not allow EK or other airlines for that matter to fly into CHC or even WLG rather than funneling everyone into AKL and then scrabbling to put on domestic flights (payed by us) for the ones that don't live around the north half of the north island.

EK are already flying the occasional service into CHC, but via MEL.

[InZed]

Getting this back on track... I would LOVE to know why we have had no word from CM :} and his ALPA council in THREE WEEKS. There has been a number of announcements and changes over this period, with no word. The Regional ALPA council have sent out numerous updates in this time, and I know the jet council have been in a lot of meetings... But no word.

Over three months into this pandemic and I think the total amount of updates comms from ALPA has yet to hit double digits... Meanwhile, FANZP have sent out weekly updates, if not more frequently as required. CM :} definitely will not be getting my vote in the next round... :mad:

[2bigmellons]

I agree with your last statement 100%. And with IP I believe it’s long haul vs short haul IP... so the average of 60 hrs across the 787/777 (eg. 85hrs on the 787 and 25hrs on the 777 is still under the threshold). If I understand correctly.

Actually, the AFFA doesn't mention that, rather it refers to (5.1 of the temporary variation) "if the company is projecting the internal or external jet operations will operate at greater than a roster average of 60 hours IP for any 3 consecutive roster periods...

Based on that, and since the A320 and the 787 are flying both internal and external operations, I'd imagine any fleet that is projected to operates above 60 hours IP for 3 consecutive roster periods will trigger re-employment. I'm no expert with this, and I am curious to know what others think. How are they tracking internal and external hours? If the 787 is adding "10,000 extra" seats over the school holidays - an internal operation, how do we know what the average internal hours are up to? Additionally, I understand they have used the word 'projected', does that mean any additional flying that is added to the live roster (as has been happening) and could potentially take a fleet average over 60 hrs IP, won't count towards one of the 3 consecutive roster periods?

[myturn]

I think you will find that the ALPA team are working pretty hard behind closed doors with the company structuring the inevitable next round. Surely the reality is that you cant have a significant part of the workforce sitting at home on 6 figure salaries with no productivity opportunities for the foreseeable future. Something has to give...............

[InZed]

I think you will find that the ALPA team are working pretty hard behind closed doors with the company structuring the inevitable next round. Surely the reality is that you cant have a significant part of the workforce sitting at home on 6 figure salaries with no productivity opportunities for the foreseeable future. Something has to give...............

“Inevitable”???

Last I heard, ALPA was going to question the latest figures. And a lot of rumours that a second round right now would create a second wave of down training and cost the company even more money - delaying complete down training beyond the supposedly projected 4 year 4 month trainjng timeframe.

Other than that, as far as I know, my union fees are paying CM to sit at home doing **** all.

[InZed]

Actually, the AFFA doesn't mention that, rather it refers to (5.1 of the temporary variation) "if the company is projecting the internal or external jet operations will operate at greater than a roster average of 60 hours IP for any 3 consecutive roster periods...

Based on that, and since the A320 and the 787 are flying both internal and external operations, I'd imagine any fleet that is projected to operates above 60 hours IP for 3 consecutive roster periods will trigger re-employment. I'm no expert with this, and I am curious to know what others think. How are they tracking internal and external hours? If the 787 is adding "10,000 extra" seats over the school holidays - an internal operation, how do we know what the average internal hours are up to? Additionally, I understand they have used the word 'projected', does that mean any additional flying that is added to the live roster (as has been happening) and could potentially take a fleet average over 60 hrs IP, won't count towards one of the 3 consecutive roster periods?

Ahhhh yes... Had to re-read it to refresh my memory of the exact wording. Thanks 2BM.

5. Re employment and recall of pilots made redundant or furloughed
5.1 If the Company is projecting the internal or external jet operations will operate at greater than a roster average of 60 incentive hours for any 3 consecutive roster periods then a pilot made redundant will be offered re-employment and a pilot who chose furlough will be recalled in accordance clause 5.2 of this temporary Variation and s19 of the CA.
5.2 Re-employment or recall will occur at the necessary level to keep the roster average for any 3 consecutive roster periods at 60 incentive hours or less.
5.3 For the avoidance of doubt, for the duration of this temporary Variation, the Company will not operate the internal or external jet operations at greater than a roster average of 60 incentive hours for any 3 consecutive roster periods unless all redundant pilots have been re-employed and all furloughed pilots have been recalled.

Sooooooooo... if the internal jet operation hits 60 hours (even if the external jet operation is less than 60 hours), does this trigger re-hiring?

[ElZilcho]

I think you will find that the ALPA team are working pretty hard behind closed doors with the company structuring the inevitable next round. Surely the reality is that you cant have a significant part of the workforce sitting at home on 6 figure salaries with no productivity opportunities for the foreseeable future. Something has to give...............

Honestly that's a piss poor excuse. It doesn't take long to draft an email to the troops, even that email is "we're working hard behind closed doors". There are a lot of assumptions and rumours going around right now and at least one Council member has had enough of CM and walked. For the last few years ALPA has had a real "PR" problem in terms of it's membership and COVID has amplified it. Instead being informed of the meetings with the company and topics being discussed we simply hear nothing for weeks or months on end and then get a "this is what we've agreed to" email. As someone else said, either in this thread or somewhere else, ALPA runs the risk of losing a lot of younger members to the federation over their handling of COVID-19, let alone the Tag & Release cluster. For example, many of our younger colleagues, at ALPA's advise, burned through all their annual leave by waiving the notice period to only then be made redundant.

Anyway, as for the topic of Pilots on 6 figure salaries doing nothing, more redundancies won't solve that. They could chop another 300 Pilots and it still wouldn't touch the 777 Crews waiting to be moved. A retrenchment takes time. We only have so many Sims, so many line sectors and so many hours in the day to move people. If the Exec have an issues with 777 Crews not working, then perhaps they shouldn't of grounded the fleet... a fleet which just last year was carrying the International Airline thanks to RR engines. I a recent communication, they said the A320 Fleet should be back to 65% shortly. The Tasman bubble might be pushed out to next year, but the Islands are pushing hard for a bubble with NZ and it's about time the Government (our major shareholder) gave it serious consideration.

Air NZ have actually scored a few own goal with their handling of this pandemic, and taking another swipe off the bottom before they've even started to replace the first round of redundancies would be another one. I mean, who thinks grounding the Domestic fleet right now would be a good idea?

Perhaps in time, once they've down-trained enough C20's to F20 they'll take another swipe off the bottom. But that's not without it's problems. The notional list will require re-writing and the entire process will start again. We all know if there's another 100 Redundancies, those 100 places will come from the 787 Ranks, so that has to filter down and they run the risk of double-training... then re-up training again in 2022 (assuming the 800 day plan works out).

It's outside the CEA, but I strongly suspect they're working on a deal with ALPA where Pilots on non-active fleets take larger pay cuts (50% or even LWOP) until their down-training course... or something to that effect. They can't enforce it of course, as our CEA doesn't allow it, but they can make a deal then put it to a vote.

Sadly, if my assumption is correct, history will repeat itself. ALPA will agree on a "deal" with the Company without consulting the membership, They'll simply put it a vote and get defensive when everyone revolts about back door deals and the lack of consultation.

Or perhaps I'm just cynical.

Sooooooooo... if the internal jet operation hits 60 hours (even if the external jet operation is less than 60 hours), does this trigger re-hiring?

I believe this where the CEA comes into play.

11.5.2.1 The Company will not operate any higher equipment category positions above a roster average of 75 incentive hours when any lower equipment category positions are projected to fall below a roster average of 60 incentive hours in three consecutive roster periods.

C8/F8's are doing 80+ hours at the moment. They are required to bring that average down within 3 rosters due to the Airbus doing less than 60. They will achieve this by moving 777 crews.

How the CEA and AFFA interact are a bit unclear.
If after 3 rosters the 787 is still doing 60+ IP, but the A320 and 777 are <60, technically they should be re-hiring. However, we all know it takes more than 3 rosters to move people.

Hypothetically, we could be a situation where the re-hire clause in the AFFA is triggered, because they simply cannot move people fast enough onto the 787, so we re-hire redundant Pilots. Then, 9 months or so later, as more Pilots have been moved, we trigger the redundancy clauses in the CEA again and those re-hired Pilots lose their jobs again. Obviously, this wouldn't happen.

This is where I think the company (from a contractual perspective) has stuffed up. They're flogging the 787 crews in breach of section 11 of the CEA and run the risk of triggering the re-hire clause. Not because we're short on Pilots, but because we're all on the wrong fleets due the 777 grounding.

[Slezy9]

Meanwhile, FANZP have sent out weekly updates, if not more frequently as required. CM :} definitely will not be getting my vote in the next round... :mad:

How many on the Air NZ ALPA council? 8 - 10?? Last round of voting for members of the council CM recurved the lowest number of votes to get onto the council. But, seemingly this was not interpreted by the individual in question that perhaps his style wasn’t really liked.

[InZed]

ALPA runs the risk of losing a lot of younger members to the federation over their handling of COVID-19, let alone the Tag & Release cluster. For example, many of our younger colleagues, at ALPA's advise, burned through all their annual leave by waiving the notice period to only then be made redundant.

EZ - I am one leaving the business shortly and in catch ups with other mates, I would say about a dozen of us are seriously looking to walk. We all agree that right now is not the time to walk as we have signed furlough contracts with references to ALPA documents etc.. But when it comes back to rehire, I believe I will go to FANZP. IMHO they do not have the stigma they once did attached to their name.

We get trained on the importance of communication in sims, there's networks for assistance with personal problems, EAP, and even human factors / every fleet refresher... heck the latest FR with the BA 777 crew and piss poor communication by the Capt causing evac with engines running... And here we have the command/dictator & chief of the Air NZ council screwing up the very basics of CRM and communication. I think communication and mental health is extremely important in life. It's particularly difficult in a macho culture particularly when it's predominantly male. John Kirwan lead the charge on this change... But I have heard CM :} talking in a group of individuals about how he thinks the "PAN network is bulls**t" and "a waste on time", and that everyone "just needs to harden up". I did not vote for him last time, and I will not vote for him (if I get the chance to vote) next time. Attitudes like that filter down. CEO/Execs/Managers or even Council Heads... that negative, archaic and self-righteous attitude is abhorent.

Perhaps in time, once they've down-trained enough C20's to F20 they'll take another swipe off the bottom. But that's not without it's problems. The notional list will require re-writing and the entire process will start again. We all know if there's another 100 Redundancies, those 100 places will come from the 787 Ranks, so that has to filter down and they run the risk of double-training... then re-up training again in 2022 (assuming the 800 day plan works out).
...
This is where I think the company (from a contractual perspective) has stuffed up. They're flogging the 787 crews in breach of section 11 of the CEA and run the risk of triggering the re-hire clause. Not because we're short on Pilots, but because we're all on the wrong fleets due the 777 grounding.

Jesus Christ. Dare I say that letting KW or JW walk in the middle of all this process and replacing them with Carrie... might not have been a great move. Gotta feel for the new guy with no pilot knowledge walking straight into the middle of this **** show and trying to get his head around all of the contracts, variations and clauses/protections.

Some clear direction and CONSISTENCY is important during times like this. Jacinda saw the importance of this and kept David Clarke as Health Minister even after his numerous F ups... And the Qantas board has asked Alan Joyce to stick around for consistency of delivery for the recovery also. Took the helm in 2008, and will stay on until at least 2023 now... That's an exceptionally long run for a CEO in aviation.

[RubberDogPoop]

Correct. But everyone knows the AFFA will get through a second 9-month extension out to almost the end of 2021.

Ouch! Thats a hell of a leap. I for one won't be rubber-stamping it without a lot of personal due diligence. Creating a variation to an existing CEA every time there is an "unprecedented" situation, to "help out" ends up diluting the original document. It'll need to be weighed up carefully against the significant downward pressure coming in May on our T&Cs. "New-normal" has an expiry date. GF will have to change the record at some point, as will ALPA.

Considering that all we are waiting on is a vaccine, I would say that the end of 2021 is about when everyone sees it all picking back up. After all, it took 20 months to create a SARS vaccine. 7 months for an EBOLA vaccine and less than 6 months for ZIKA.

Covid vaccine trials started just after 65 days. I imagine the world will see worldwide vaccine spread by the end of 2020.

While I agree with the sentiment - the whole world is invested in this vaccine - I've never heard such optimistic numbers around development timeframes. 7 months for Ebola???? Last I heard it was the fastest ever vaccine at Five years! I'd love to see your sources. Despite every other article that you read being a full 180 on the last, I've not seen deviation from the idea that (wrongly) no Corona virus vaccine currently exists (we have of course a 'Flu vaccine of 45% effectiveness), and that developments are measured in years, not months. You are correct that Oxford via their Vietnam lab plan to have most of Europe and the US covered by the end of the year - if their final trial doesn't throw up any issues. If there are, I'm afraid IATA disagree wholeheartedly with you and see in their baseline prediction - 2019 levels at the start of 2023. How many roll-overs should we give without any thought to the consequences?

[RubberDogPoop]

Zilch, I think in your hypothetical scenario, to separate the two LH fleets is not the intent. They would be the "external" operation for mine, and as long as we have just two 777s, we'll never see that threshold met. (The cynic in me would say - what a great reason to hang on to an otherwise inefficient fleet of 2+1 spare...)
Anyone know what the Bus is doing average roster-wise at the moment? I'd be surprised if that was over 60, if it is, beyond school hols it's not going to be a 3 month thing.
Make no mistake - this is a restructure, there'll be no appetite to be increasing pilot numbers.

[InZed]

Ouch! Thats a hell of a leap. I for one won't be rubber-stamping it without a lot of personal due diligence. Creating a variation to an existing CEA every time there is an "unprecedented" situation, to "help out" ends up diluting the original document.

Have you looked into the document at all? I think you might need to re-read the title of the document. I'll underline the keyword for you in case you miss it again.
COVID-19 TEMPORARY VARIATION TO NZALPA AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED PILOTS’ COLLECTIVE EMPLOYMENT AGREEMENT

While I agree with the sentiment - the whole world is invested in this vaccine - I've never heard such optimistic numbers around development timeframes. 7 months for Ebola???? Last I heard it was the fastest ever vaccine at Five years! I'd love to see your sources. Despite every other article that you read being a full 180 on the last, I've not seen deviation from the idea that (wrongly) no Corona virus vaccine currently exists (we have of course a 'Flu vaccine of 45% effectiveness), and that developments are measured in years, not months. You are correct that Oxford via their Vietnam lab plan to have most of Europe and the US covered by the end of the year - if their final trial doesn't throw up any issues. If there are, I'm afraid IATA disagree wholeheartedly with you and see in their baseline prediction - 2019 levels at the start of 2023. How many roll-overs should we give without any thought to the consequences?

Have you looked into this at all? There are numerous sources quoting this information. Will a Harvard article suffice?
HARVARD | Ending an Epidemic: The when and how of vaccines (https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/07/jhj-ending-an-epidemic)

"In fact, from the time of the public release of the SARS-CoV-2 sequence to the injection of a BARDA-supported vaccine “into the first volunteer’s arm…in a phase-1 safety test,” Bloom notes, took just 62 days."

There are three phases of vaccine testing; each phase being months long. But there are numerous companies that are already, or about to start, the third and final phase. Should this be successful, the world should have a mass produced vaccine by the end of the year.
I take it you probably want me to do your research for you on this one also?
XINHUA | China's inactivated COVID-19 vaccine starts phase-3 clinical trial internationally (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-06/24/c_139164415.htm)
TIME | Moderna Plans to Start Phase 3 Testing of Its COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate in July (https://time.com/5852032/moderna-vaccine-phase-3/)

[ElZilcho]

EZ - I am one leaving the business shortly and in catch ups with other mates, I would say about a dozen of us are seriously looking to walk. We all agree that right now is not the time to walk as we have signed furlough contracts with references to ALPA documents etc.. But when it comes back to rehire, I believe I will go to FANZP. IMHO they do not have the stigma they once did attached to their name.

We get trained on the importance of communication in sims, there's networks for assistance with personal problems, EAP, and even human factors / every fleet refresher... heck the latest FR with the BA 777 crew and piss poor communication by the Capt causing evac with engines running... And here we have the command/dictator & chief of the Air NZ council screwing up the very basics of CRM and communication. I think communication and mental health is extremely important in life. It's particularly difficult in a macho culture particularly when it's predominantly male. John Kirwan lead the charge on this change... But I have heard CM :} talking in a group of individuals about how he thinks the "PAN network is bulls**t" and "a waste on time", and that everyone "just needs to harden up". I did not vote for him last time, and I will not vote for him (if I get the chance to vote) next time. Attitudes like that filter down. CEO/Execs/Managers or even Council Heads... that negative, archaic and self-righteous attitude is abhorent.

Jesus Christ. Dare I say that letting KW or JW walk in the middle of all this process and replacing them with Carrie... might not have been a great move. Gotta feel for the new guy with no pilot knowledge walking straight into the middle of this **** show and trying to get his head around all of the contracts, variations and clauses/protections.

Some clear direction and CONSISTENCY is important during times like this. Jacinda saw the importance of this and kept David Clarke as Health Minister even after his numerous F ups... And the Qantas board has asked Alan Joyce to stick around for consistency of delivery for the recovery also. Took the helm in 2008, and will stay on until at least 2023 now... That's an exceptionally long run for a CEO in aviation.

Yes ALPA is treading on thin Ice with CM. He subscribes to the old school ways of thinking, when Pilots had punch-ups in the hotel lobby's. Hey, if he wants to go a few rounds I'm sure he'll find plenty of takers, but I'd say as a collective we've moved on from that.

The old guard is unfortunately also part of the problem. I recall a Captain telling me "not to worry young fella" (I'm into my Forties and about as grey as he is) because the Government will never let Air NZ go under. We'll just be a smaller Airline with 4-500 Pilots. Of course, he's in the top 200 and just wants a Salary for next 18 months. Couldn't give 2 ****s about the 700 Pilots in total who would lose their jobs if we down-sized to 500.

I fear Air NZ is becoming rudderless. They've lost a lot of good people during this, and replaced some average people with even worse ones. Pretty sure we all know what job Carrie was brought in to do.. but with Pilots, CC and Engineers under her, she's in the perfect position to absolutely destroy the Airline.

Ouch! Thats a hell of a leap. I for one won't be rubber-stamping it without a lot of personal due diligence. Creating a variation to an existing CEA every time there is an "unprecedented" situation, to "help out" ends up diluting the original document. It'll need to be weighed up carefully against the significant downward pressure coming in May on our T&Cs. "New-normal" has an expiry date. GF will have to change the record at some point, as will ALPA.

We're not helping the Airline. We're helping ourselves and our mates/colleagues. I wish more Pilots would see it this way. Management will always pay themselves bonuses, and share options, and celebrate each other in media. Capitalism at its finest. We need to ensure however, that all sacrifices are in deed made to help the collective and not the Exec.

In the Manual of the various Aircraft we fly/have flown, there's almost always a statement that says (in so many words) "While extensive, these procedure are not exhaustive and cannot cover every possible Scenario". QF32 is a good example of this.
The CEA is not an all-inclusive document, and has been shaped by historical events. Ever heard an American say you cannot change the Second Amendment? Why's it called an Amendment then? Every single negotiation round we push for changes/tweaks to the CEA and yet when a pandemic rolls around, suddenly it's written in stone handed down to moses by the almighty himself.

Perhaps adding a Pandemic section (since we're probably going to get one every decade or so) isn't such a silly idea.

Zilch, I think in your hypothetical scenario, to separate the two LH fleets is not the intent. They would be the "external" operation for mine, and as long as we have just two 777s, we'll never see that threshold met. (The cynic in me would say - what a great reason to hang on to an otherwise inefficient fleet of 2+1 spare...)
Anyone know what the Bus is doing average roster-wise at the moment? I'd be surprised if that was over 60, if it is, beyond school hols it's not going to be a 3 month thing.
Make no mistake - this is a restructure, there'll be no appetite to be increasing pilot numbers.

You're probably right. So long as we have a 777 Fleet, with crew on "standby" they'll likely average the 2 somehow.
I haven't seen the latest Bus roster. Is it out yet? Probably wont be over 60 no... need the Regional flying for that. A 50 hour domestic roster can still feel like a flogging some days.

[NZ1]

I fear Air NZ is becoming rudderless. They've lost a lot of good people during this, and replaced some average people with even worse ones. Pretty sure we all know what job Carrie was brought in to do.. but with Pilots, CC and Engineers under her, she's in the perfect position to absolutely destroy the Airline.

Never a truer word spoken. The CEO is invisible and the exec are in disarray. I fear they have way over-reacted and reduced numbers to the point it is starting to put operational integrity at risk, especially in ground ops support areas with the latest drive to save a further $150m off the wage bill. Some areas are so lean they risk blunting their knives on the bone. Carrie is dangerous - she is only just getting started. Wait until she has implemented the full contents of the Oliver Wyman report that was commissioned.

[RubberDogPoop]

Have you looked into the document at all? I think you might need to re-read the title of the document. I'll underline the keyword for you in case you miss it again.
COVID-19 TEMPORARY VARIATION TO NZALPA AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED PILOTS’ COLLECTIVE EMPLOYMENT AGREEMENT

Wow! Fundamental Attribution Error, Confirmation Bias, and Projection all rolled into one response. I can see the lock-down did wonders for you patience. Read a post, filtered it through red mist, completely altered its meaning, and voila - proved you didn't comprehend anything at all. I'll rephrase your honour:
How many roll-overs of a temporary variation are needed for it to no longer be temporary?
How many variations of an existing CEA are needed before the original is no longer relevant?

Are you happy that CEA protections around leave notice periods were waived, in order to "help out" - and in return you were sent down the road sooner than you needed to be? (To help with your perception problem - that little question mark means it's an actual question. Like the ones in the original post. It's an invitation for you to answer, not for you to decide what I think - because so far, you've largely been wrong on that score).
By your own admission, you feel let down by your union and you're thinking about jumping ship. Which is it?
Since you like internet reading, go have a look at what IFALPA think is the next train coming down the line - it aint Covid...
See also: "full pay 'till the last day" - an american view of what happens to T&Cs when you "help out" "temporarily" in the aftermath of 9/11...
(sorry, I'm not going to give you links - get a balanced view).


Have you looked into this at all? There are numerous sources quoting this information. Will a Harvard article suffice?
HARVARD | Ending an Epidemic: The when and how of vaccines (https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/07/jhj-ending-an-epidemic)

"In fact, from the time of the public release of the SARS-CoV-2 sequence to the injection of a BARDA-supported vaccine “into the first volunteer’s arm…in a phase-1 safety test,” Bloom notes, took just 62 days."

There are three phases of vaccine testing; each phase being months long. But there are numerous companies that are already, or about to start, the third and final phase. Should this be successful, the world should have a mass produced vaccine by the end of the year.
I take it you probably want me to do your research for you on this one also?
XINHUA | China's inactivated COVID-19 vaccine starts phase-3 clinical trial internationally (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-06/24/c_139164415.htm)
TIME | Moderna Plans to Start Phase 3 Testing of Its COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate in July (https://time.com/5852032/moderna-vaccine-phase-3/)

Those are all very nice, and perhaps, despite bolding, and specifically asking about the FIVE YEARS claim on the Ebola vaccine, you've somehow conflated that to my suspicion of a Covid vaccine. This in-spite of my opening statement of agreement with you, and acknowledging the Oxford University/AstraZenteca are well under way with their third phase trial of their vaccine.
You are correct that Oxford via their Vietnam lab plan to have most of Europe and the US covered by the end of the year - if their final trial doesn't throw up any issues.
The bolding is the elephant in the room don't you think? Given that the latest from Oxford is that their September timeframe for rollout of the vaccine in Europe has slipped (ironically because so few of the 10000+ volunteers will "catch" Covid with the dropping daily infections in the UK), and those very same articles that you so dutifully linked quote "4 years" for Mumps (the fastest yet), and that the Moderna and Oxford trials have a "20%" chance of successfully navigating the phase 3 trials - I really can't see why you're so p!ssy at what was said. And try not to seem so pleased with yourself that you could shout "will a Harvard article suffice" - appeals to authority on the internet are beginner level. I can see why I walked away from prune 20 years ago....

Because it seems I need to be less nuanced in my replies, I'll say again - I agree, a vaccine is more likely than not, and in record time.

[RubberDogPoop]

We're not helping the Airline. We're helping ourselves and our mates/colleagues. I wish more Pilots would see it this way. Management will always pay themselves bonuses, and share options, and celebrate each other in media. Capitalism at its finest. We need to ensure however, that all sacrifices are in deed made to help the collective and not the Exec.

...so waiving the rights of our colleagues to 42 and 60 day notice periods of leave allocation, prior to their 3 months redundancy notice was not helping the airline? Don't make the mistake of the young fella above and conflate my discussion points as my personally held views. I totally agree that a pay cut was appropriate - socially, and strategically - but that did not in, and of itself "save" jobs. The part-time job arguably did that - though given the rhetoric from Walmart HQ, would you bet the house on it? This is a restructure. There is no need to carry hundreds of extra, expensive employees if your aim is "a smaller airline". BTW that's my bolding up there...

In the Manual of the various Aircraft we fly/have flown, there's almost always a statement that says (in so many words) "While extensive, these procedure are not exhaustive and cannot cover every possible Scenario". QF32 is a good example of this.
The CEA is not an all-inclusive document, and has been shaped by historical events. Ever heard an American say you cannot change the Second Amendment? Why's it called an Amendment then? Every single negotiation round we push for changes/tweaks to the CEA and yet when a pandemic rolls around, suddenly it's written in stone handed down to moses by the almighty himself.
1.) QF32 is a bad example of a lot of things.
2.) I see you're a fan of Jim Jefferies...
3.) True, nice turn of phrase. Did we not have a clause that related to "redundancy" that would have worked already? Does/did the modality of redundancy require an alteration to the wording - a variation? Maybe. As you rightly point out there are myriad scenarios that may drive a redundancy scenario. Should we rush to a variation every time? Should we waive built-in protections for those most vulnerable? If you believe genuine job cuts are coming your way - absolutely, self-interest trumps critical thought every time. I'm sure that never crossed the company mind...
Do we not have a clause that relates to "seniority", and "direction"? Are/were they not fit for purpose? (I'll give you that one is a difference in interpretation of different clauses though..).
Back to the original though experiment - when do multiple variations alter the original intent of the CEA?

To assist those prone to attributing their perception of my thoughts, to my thoughts:
I agree the pay cut was appropriate.
​​​​​​​I agree this is an "unprecedented" situation - in the near term.
I agree "out-of-the-box thinking was/is required.
I acknowledge that this was no negotiation - we have no leverage, we could have simply have been told what was going to happen. (Funnily enough, that's exactly where we'll be in May next year - confident in our "strategic partnership" with Gollum and Carrie aboard are you?)
I like the method of achieving the pay cut - it's not one, we just agreed to work part-time. A better solution than a flat 25% actual pay cut as proposed by FANZ IMHO.
I think it likely that a roll-over of the variation after 9 months will be appropriate - in the absence of a effective treatment, or vaccine. But not necessarily if the company follows-through on another round of cuts. (yes, I acknowledge your thoughts around the realities of actually making them). Because that will be taking the p!ss, and not "good faith". And let's remember, despite InZed's smartar$e protestations to the contrary, I have read the variation - there is a review every THREE MONTHS isn't there? 9 months is a poorly understood misnomer.
I will not do anything without thinking about it first. I understand InZeds self-interest in promoting a roll-over as a fait accompli, and that a vaccine is right around the corner, we all have that - should we suspend critical thought because of it?

Let's just make sure we are "helping ourselves and our mates/collegues". That was the point. Nothing more, nothing less. I wish more pilots would see this....(hopefully, if you're comprehending this post in its entirety instead of red-misting your response half-cocked, and halfway through, you'll see I'm actually largely in agreement with both of you).

​​​​​​​As someone said in another forum "trust but verify". (props to SR there ;) )

[ElZilcho]

We seem to agree on most things RubberDogPoop. Wile your post was the one I quoted, a lot of what I said wasn't directed specifically at you and more at some of the attitudes I've seen floating around.

Waiving the rights on notice periods was a monumental f:mad:k up, no argument there.
Forans done his re-structure to the 70% Airline. Yes, we're carrying extra due to the AFFA and 50%/LWOP agreements, so if he turns around and sacks them he'll probably never get another agreement signed by the Pilot group as long as he's CEO. Rough math suggests the AFFA is worth about $30M P.A while 100 redundancies would be worth around $12-$15M, after 3 months notice. I'm going to assume, further redundancies will be used as the threat to extend the AFFA and/or increase the cut (although 787 Pilots could not fit their current hours into a 75% roster). My only comment here is it's easy to act "tough" and "stick it to the company" when it's not your (not you specifically) job you're gambling with. I just hope whatever the next hurdle is, we don't play hardball just for the sake of it.

Over the last few weeks I've caught up with a few who lost their jobs. Some have already left due to 6 weeks notice, most are about to complete their 3 months. One thing I can say for all of them (who I've spoken to), is that they're incredibly relieved to have the re-employment clauses strengthened. Particularly waiving the currency requirements and the change of wording around "preference" of re-employment. Some took Furlough, but will re-evaluate before 3 years to decide if they'll take redundancy or not. Again, it appeared those most against amending that section of the CEA were so far above the Redundancy zone they couldn't hear the pleas from their distraught colleagues at the bottom.

I mentioned QF32 because there was no procedure for the specific event they encountered. There are various opinions as to how that event was handled, just like there are various opinions as to how ALPA and the Company are dealing with COVID... my point is, we're going off script here. It's even been acknowledged that the notional process wasn't really designed for a company wide retrenchment, but more for fleet retirements... there's a great thread on the ALPA forums which discusses "Perceived" Seniority Violations of the notional process after we were told Seniority is Sacrosent multiple times during the Zoom meetings.

Jim Jefferies is one of the better things to come out of Australia yes :ok:

We definitely should not make a habit of amending the CEA everytime we (the company) are faced with the unforeseen. But I also don't think we should outright dismiss it. I'd argue a global pandemic is a good exception. Even if the AFFA were extended for the entirety of Forans 800 day plan, it's still temporary, thus far more valuable than making permanent concessions. I do agree that a line needs to be drawn eventually.


The AFFA automatically rolls over every 3 rosters if the external operation is still projecting <60 IP for the nest 3 rosters, it isn't specifically reviewed, just has self extending/termination clauses. Once we get to 9 rosters however, it requires another Ballot to extend.

I will not do anything without thinking about it first.

Absolutely. Unfortunately, there are some members (a minority I hope) who hold such blind hatred for the company that they don't want to think about it. They want to dismiss everything right from the onset because of some grievance that happened 30 years ago under entirely different circumstances... that was made painfully apparent from some of the accusations during zoom meetings. Clearly, several colleagues had not even read the documents, and/or have gone their whole careers without understanding how IP is prorated when not working a full roster.

Anyway, panic slowly, trust but verify :ok: (I'd argue Verify then trust!)

[go123]

Any update on what the options are that Jet pilots are being asked to consider at the moment?

[Ollie Onion]

a - 75% roster,
b - 50% pay with no work required for 24 months but return to whatever fleet needs you in 2 years,
c - ‘early exit’, retire/leave early for up to a years pay.

Seems like a good set of choices to me.

[ElZilcho]

a - 75% roster,
b - 50% pay with no work required for 24 months but return to whatever fleet needs you in 2 years,
c - ‘early exit’, retire/leave early for up to a years pay.

Seems like a good set of choices to me.

Just to expand on this.

A.) The 75% Roster is a Flexi-Flying/Part-time agreement which also includes a 50% option. I believe the Company are also open to all offers outside of the the normal 50/75. Flexi-Flying, like LWOP, are not specifically linked to COVID and have been Lifestyle options for a few years. While Pilots who sign up for these due to COVID will be accounted for in the cost savings, it's not a new offering.

B.) There's actually 2 options here. Leave with Pay for 2 years on 50% with Recall, or 30% with limited Recall. On 50%, you can be recalled with 2 months notice, must keep your Medical Current and must attend annual refresher courses. If you opt for 30%, you can be recalled with 3 months notice after the 50%'s have been recalled but are not required to attend annual refreshers (still required to maintain your Medical).
The 30% option also includes the ability to convert to LWOP if recalled. You can also take LWOP up to 5 years or a combination 2 years 30% + LWOP to a maximum of 5 years,

C.) There are 2 options here. Early Retirement for Widebody Pilots or Early exit for anyone else. Early Retirement is a larger offering than the Severance pay in our CEA, but paid over 2 years instead of in a Lump sum. Early exit, (aimed at over 65 Airbus Captains I assume), is basically the equivalent of Severance pay, but also paid over 2 years. Given Severance pay (as per the CEA) is not payable to Pilots over 65, this might be a decent Carrot to get them to retire.

[go123]

Interesting! They sound like pretty great options to be honest. Surely there’ll be some punters who are keen. Not great for those who already took voluntary in the first round

[InZed]

Just to expand on this.

A.) The 75% Roster is a Flexi-Flying/Part-time agreement which also includes a 50% option. I believe the Company are also open to all offers outside of the the normal 50/75. Flexi-Flying, like LWOP, are not specifically linked to COVID and have been Lifestyle options for a few years. While Pilots who sign up for these due to COVID will be accounted for in the cost savings, it's not a new offering.

B.) There's actually 2 options here. Leave with Pay for 2 years on 50% with Recall, or 30% with limited Recall. On 50%, you can be recalled with 2 months notice, must keep your Medical Current and must attend annual refresher courses. If you opt for 30%, you can be recalled with 3 months notice after the 50%'s have been recalled but are not required to attend annual refreshers (still required to maintain your Medical).
The 30% option also includes the ability to convert to LWOP if recalled. You can also take LWOP up to 5 years or a combination 2 years 30% + LWOP to a maximum of 5 years,

C.) There are 2 options here. Early Retirement for Widebody Pilots or Early exit for anyone else. Early Retirement is a larger offering than the Severance pay in our CEA, but paid over 2 years instead of in a Lump sum. Early exit, (aimed at over 65 Airbus Captains I assume), is basically the equivalent of Severance pay, but also paid over 2 years. Given Severance pay (as per the CEA) is not payable to Pilots over 65, this might be a decent Carrot to get them to retire.

You managed to explain the three options about ten times better than the ALPA email.

[myturn]

So what happens to the 777 guys, does the 50% LWP cover re training?

[ElZilcho]

You managed to explain the three options about ten times better than the ALPA email.

Yea, ops normal with the Comms... infrequent and lacking.
Emailing Council (in my experience) has always resulted in a rather quick, concise response, so it baffles me as to why they'd rather have to field questions individually opposed to simply sending out more comms.

So what happens to the 777 guys, does the 50% LWP cover re training?

None of the above is "Fleet specific" aside from perhaps limiting the number of slots available on a per fleet/rank basis.
Anyone who takes 50% LWP will require re-training on their return, regardless of Fleet.

It's all about preserving Cash for the next 2 years (at this stage). Many of us will require a full TR anyway as we're being directed, so the cost is the cost be it today or in 2 years.

Specifically to the 777, as the fleets effectively grounded, I'd say anyone who applies for any of the above will have it approved and their direction course delayed (or cancelled if they're retiring). 787/A320 Fleets however, still have some work on, so depending on how many EOI's are submitted, they might be forced to limit how many are accepted.

[Slezy9]

You managed to explain the three options about ten times better than the ALPA email.

If it wasn't for the MBF I'd not be a member of ALPA anymore. Despite the repeated requests for more regular updates nothing has changed... I rely on the FEDs emails that are forwarded to me.

[waterbottle]

If it wasn't for the MBF I'd not be a member of ALPA anymore. Despite the repeated requests for more regular updates nothing has changed... I rely on the FEDs emails that are forwarded to me.

FANZP insurances are structured slightly differently but the net effect is exactly the same. The process from going on sick leave through to losing a medical and receiving the loss of licence payment results in the same amount of money. Everyone I’ve spoken to who has used the system has been very happy with the support.

If you have any questions feel free to email [email protected]

[InZed]

FANZP insurances are structured slightly differently but the net effect is exactly the same. The process from going on sick leave through to losing a medical and receiving the loss of licence payment results in the same amount of money. Everyone I’ve spoken to who has used the system has been very happy with the support.

If you have any questions feel free to email [email protected]

Thanks Matt.

I sincerely hope there’s a name change away from a federation for FANZP. Remove the stigma for many decades ago. It’s already glaringly obvious that they’re superior in terms of support and communications in a time of crisis (the most important time for a union to be good at the basics). A lot of ALPA members are already aware that they have got their cart attached to the wrong horse.

IMO a name change, more public information (particularly around the similarities between the two unions) and a more user friendly website. Voila. There will be no reason not to move.

From my conversations, I understand a large number of furloughed ALPA members will be returning as FANZP. They’ve been let down, left hung out to dry, no replies to emails to the council, no communications, no representation of many pilot groups (particularly newer members) and over support of ARPs. Their dictator in chief (DIC) has shown a level of corruption on multiple levels - as has been discussed in detail on ‘other’ forums.

[6080ft]

I’ve seen the FANZP comms and to be honest there was nothing in them I didn’t already know. They seem to contain a lot of pontificating, opinion, and graphs, that add nothing to what is already out there.

Can someone elaborate exactly how to the furloughed pilots feel let down? Do they think union membership would have affected wether or not they got furloughed or made redundant?

I have also read the “other” forums, and whilst there’s been the odd goood point made, it struck me that most of the posters hadn’t read their CEA, or the comms from the company and their union.

And no, I’m not an elected union offical or council member for either NZALPA or FANZP.

[waren9]

I’ve seen the FANZP comms and to be honest there was nothing in them I didn’t already know. They seem to contain a lot of pontificating, opinion, and graphs, that add nothing to what is already out there.

Can someone elaborate exactly how to the furloughed pilots feel let down? Do they think union membership would have affected wether or not they got furloughed or made redundant?

I have also read the “other” forums, and whilst there’s been the odd goood point made, it struck me that most of the posters hadn’t read their CEA, or the comms from the company and their union.

And no, I’m not an elected union offical or council member for either NZALPA or FANZP.

point well made. i agree entirely.

[kev2002]

I’ve seen the FANZP comms and to be honest there was nothing in them I didn’t already know. They seem to contain a lot of pontificating, opinion, and graphs, that add nothing to what is already out there.

Can someone elaborate exactly how to the furloughed pilots feel let down? Do they think union membership would have affected wether or not they got furloughed or made redundant?

I have also read the “other” forums, and whilst there’s been the odd goood point made, it struck me that most of the posters hadn’t read their CEA, or the comms from the company and their union.

And no, I’m not an elected union offical or council member for either NZALPA or FANZP.

Agreed.. FANZP comms added no new information to what was already out there

[Out there]

I’ve seen the FANZP comms and to be honest there was nothing in them I didn’t already know. They seem to contain a lot of pontificating, opinion, and graphs, that add nothing to what is already out there.

Can someone elaborate exactly how to the furloughed pilots feel let down? Do they think union membership would have affected wether or not they got furloughed or made redundant?

I have also read the “other” forums, and whilst there’s been the odd goood point made, it struck me that most of the posters hadn’t read their CEA, or the comms from the company and their union.

And no, I’m not an elected union offical or council member for either NZALPA or FANZP.

Agreed totally. I do wonder sometimes about the competence of some pilots who ask questions, when the answers are in the documents available.

[Slezy9]

I’ve seen the FANZP comms and to be honest there was nothing in them I didn’t already know. They seem to contain a lot of pontificating, opinion, and graphs, that add nothing to what is already out there.

Can someone elaborate exactly how to the furloughed pilots feel let down? Do they think union membership would have affected wether or not they got furloughed or made redundant?

I have also read the “other” forums, and whilst there’s been the odd goood point made, it struck me that most of the posters hadn’t read their CEA, or the comms from the company and their union.

And no, I’m not an elected union offical or council member for either NZALPA or FANZP.

Perhaps if you have a background from the links you probably have your “ear to the ground” a little more than those of us from the outside. I learnt more from Fed updates that were timely and frequent. Unlike the ALPA updates that came out after I’d read it from the Fed updates.

Anyway, you can think what you like. Unless there’s a change in leadership with a focus on the majority (not a select few, ARP??) I’m not the only one who won’t be back with ALPA when/ if we get rehired.

[InZed]

Anyway, you can think what you like. Unless there’s a change in leadership with a focus on the majority (not a select few, ARP??) I’m not the only one who won’t be back with ALPA when/ if we get rehired.

100% agree.

[6080ft]

Perhaps if you have a background from the links you probably have your “ear to the ground” a little more than those of us from the outside. I learnt more from Fed updates that were timely and frequent. Unlike the ALPA updates that came out after I’d read it from the Fed updates.

Anyway, you can think what you like. Unless there’s a change in leadership with a focus on the majority (not a select few, ARP??) I’m not the only one who won’t be back with ALPA when/ if we get rehired.

I get where you are coming from with the comms. There was at times I was early waiting on an update that felt like it took far too long to come out. I’d like to think it was due to the fact NZALPA wanted to publish a newsletter that contained known facts, and a bit of an idea of way forward, instead of a 10 page thesis that was the opposite. If in the early days we had gone down the line FANZP quickly ‘ratified’ we would have taken a bigger base pay cut and still be available for a full roster. Good on them for their unified stance tho! I stand corrected on that one tho.

Regarding the ARP’s - I doubt there is a member out there who was interested in letting that happen. But I believe it was better for NZALPA to be at the table rather than not. Not being there has shot ourselves in the foot in the past. NZALPA rules are such that the union can’t pick and choose who it supports in that regard.

At the end of the day, I don’t care what union people choose to belong to. I have good friends in both. What bothers me is when misinformation is spread without people knowing the full story. I wonder how many concerned members went to any council meetings, to sit in and hear what is discussed? My guess is none as engagement is so low - until it affects an individual member. From what I’ve seen, the loudest most disaffected members eventuality put theirs hands up and get involved - and then go silent. Perhaps because they suddenly have a more detailed view of the massive amount of work the council do, and how that work is done. After all the union is us - the members.

For me, NZALPA is not perfect and it would be very easy to change unions, pay less fees and have access to the same licence insurance. But for me it’s not about who’s the cheapest. I’m proud to be part of a union that has the interest of aviation in general in New Zealand. Remember when Air New Zealand was attempting to get pilots added to the skill shortage list, thereby being able to import some cheap labour? It was NZALPA that fought that one through multiple channels. NZALPA has also done a phenomenal amount of work in the medical, drone, and airport certification (WLG RESA springs to mind) areas.

My sympathies go out to all those pilots who have been made redundant or furloughed. It’s a **** sandwich that’s for sure. I’m now not far off the bottom of the list myself.

[ADFUS]

12 months on... when will this nightmare end :}

[InZed]

12 months on... when will this nightmare end :}

Don’t worry. Jacinda’s elimination strategy will mean that NZ will stay in perpetual lockdown.

AM show this morning has a UK Govt specialist on who said that Jacinda needs to be real, drop her elimination strategy and learn to live with it. AUNZ are the only ones in the world in lockdown… I’m sure the world looks on at us and laughs.

Let’s get the furloughed guys back to work and start reopening like everywhere else in the world.

[ADFUS]

Jacinda’s elimination strategy will mean that NZ will stay in perpetual lockdown.

Will no-one rid me of this turbulent priest?

[Chris2303]

AUNZ are the only ones in the world in lockdown… I’m sure the world looks on at us and laughs.

A "UK Government Specialist" has little credibility to this Kiwi. After all, look how well the UK has done so far.

I find it very difficult to understand that, with 210 community cases in NZ due to one person on a red zone flight, they are talking of restarting red zone flights from next month.

Public feedback on this has mirrored my thinking

[InZed]

A "UK Government Specialist" has little credibility to this Kiwi. After all, look how well the UK has done so far.

I find it very difficult to understand that, with 210 community cases in NZ due to one person on a red zone flight, they are talking of restarting red zone flights from next month.

Public feedback on this has mirrored my thinking

Don’t worry. Based on the half billion dollar loss today, in 18 months, the business will have used its full government loan and will be shut down.

[Ollie Onion]

Holy moly, just over $100 million in cash is not much for an airline.

[NZScion]

In case there was any doubt: B772s are gone for good. B773s will be gone by 2027. Long haul to be made up of 20 B789/B78X.


Newshub Link (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/08/air-new-zealand-to-operate-dreamliners-on-all-long-haul-routes-as-boeing-777s-phased-out.html)

[go123]

Don’t worry. Jacinda’s elimination strategy will mean that NZ will stay in perpetual lockdown.

AM show this morning has a UK Govt specialist on who said that Jacinda needs to be real, drop her elimination strategy and learn to live with it. AUNZ are the only ones in the world in lockdown… I’m sure the world looks on at us and laughs.

Let’s get the furloughed guys back to work and start reopening like everywhere else in the world.

Not the case mate, Ho Chi Minh is in a military lockdown, unable to leave your house at all. Food is brought to you!

Most provinces in Thailand are in lockdown too, that’s why if you’re after a Ford Ranger or Hilux in NZ you’re looking at even bigger delays as the factories are closed.

Delta is airborne now, it truely is like a new virus, not enough has been reported on how bad it really is.

[InZed]

In case there was any doubt: B772s are gone for good. B773s will be gone by 2027. Long haul to be made up of 20 B789/B78X.


Newshub Link (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/08/air-new-zealand-to-operate-dreamliners-on-all-long-haul-routes-as-boeing-777s-phased-out.html)

So the company had 21 widebody aircraft for the past two decades, but in the future, they’re planning on having a smaller widebody fleet? Despite the NZ pop growing by 20%?

As they will own the remaining 77W’s - it wouldn’t surprise me if they do what a lot of airlines do, and the retirement date looms closer, and they keep them going.

[Anti Skid On]

So the company had 21 widebody aircraft for the past two decades, but in the future, they’re planning on having a smaller widebody fleet? Despite the NZ pop growing by 20%?

As they will own the remaining 77W’s - it wouldn’t surprise me if they do what a lot of airlines do, and the retirement date looms closer, and they keep them going.

Meanwhile in the UK BoJo is saying it's acceptable to have 1000 deaths per week; so you're saying you are happy to have 80 deaths per week? He has said they'll only go back into lockdown when they reach those numbers. The UK had 33000 new infections yesterday, that would equate to well over 2000 here. They have 6900 in hospital, that would be 500 cases in hospital

Then there's the costs associated with running every hospital flat out ($5000 per ICU bed per day) for months. You're happy to support the long-term consequences of 'Long Covid', lots of people on long-term sickness benefit for years, requiring home oxygen support?

As much as you may hate lockdown's, we haven't had 1000's die, our economy is stronger than our competitors and our unemployment is lower than others, and to be fair, we had 176 days living a pretty normal life.

[continue#1]

As much as you may hate lockdown's, we haven't had 1000's die, our economy is stronger than our competitors and our unemployment is lower than others, and to be fair, we had 176 days living a pretty normal life.
Your right, we havent had thousands die from covid but due to our governments response and the billions borrowed and spent, the outcome is far from over. The economic cost and the underlying mental and socio-economic factors will be felt worse in our small country for decades to come. We have to stop this thinking that we are any better than another country because we had these 'purchased freedoms'. I know people not getting cancer treatment they need during lockdowns and they will unfortunately die not to mention suicides ballooning and more poor people dying in emergency housing, These are DUE TO COVID but not counted.
AirNZ wont survive if we keep locking down fullstop.... I cant see the public having an appetite for many more billlion dollar bailouts(Loans written off in the future).

[Ollie Onion]

So what do you see as the exit strategy from this then? At the end of the day COVID is now with humanity forever and ALL a of us at some point will have COVID. We can now pretty much ensure that we don’t get seriously sick or die by having a vaccine, how long do we keep the borders shut after reaching 80% plus vaccination rate to protect those who don’t have the jab. You say are you ‘willing’ to accept 80 deaths a week, is this based on Boris saying 1,000 per week is acceptable in the UK, they currently and running at around 400 per week from COVID with a population of 60 million and his no doubt will drop as more get the jab. If we were to have a similar rate that would be about 30 per week. NZ currently has a death rate of just under 40,000 per year or 770 per week, in the UK COVID is killing about 1/5 of the number who die each week from cancer and about 1/5 the amount who die from Heart Disease, should we ban meat, nitrates, cigarettes and alcohol to try and reduce these down as well? So what is your plan, given Covid is going to be with us forever, how many more businesses do we sacrifice, how many peoples lives do we ruin, how many more suicides are acceptable in our quest to eliminate.

[dctPub]

Your right, we havent had thousands die from covid but due to our governments response and the billions borrowed and spent, the outcome is far from over. The economic cost and the underlying mental and socio-economic factors will be felt worse in our small country for decades to come. We have to stop this thinking that we are any better than another country because we had these 'purchased freedoms'. I know people not getting cancer treatment they need during lockdowns and they will unfortunately die not to mention suicides ballooning and more poor people dying in emergency housing, These are DUE TO COVID but not counted.
AirNZ wont survive if we keep locking down fullstop.... I cant see the public having an appetite for many more billlion dollar bailouts(Loans written off in the future).

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1402x614/money_printer_d3f9f38e0be374f3b9145835b9db21fe68b3c735.png

200 Billion in debt hype!!! But as long as we keep the "eCoNoMy" going it's all good my bros!

[Chris2303]

and they will unfortunately die not to mention suicides ballooning and more poor people dying in emergency housing

As Wikipedia says "citation please"

[Anti Skid On]

So what do you see as the exit strategy from this then? At the end of the day COVID is now with humanity forever and ALL a of us at some point will have COVID. We can now pretty much ensure that we don’t get seriously sick or die by having a vaccine, how long do we keep the borders shut after reaching 80% plus vaccination rate to protect those who don’t have the jab. You say are you ‘willing’ to accept 80 deaths a week, is this based on Boris saying 1,000 per week is acceptable in the UK, they currently and running at around 400 per week from COVID with a population of 60 million and his no doubt will drop as more get the jab. If we were to have a similar rate that would be about 30 per week. NZ currently has a death rate of just under 40,000 per year or 770 per week, in the UK COVID is killing about 1/5 of the number who die each week from cancer and about 1/5 the amount who die from Heart Disease, should we ban meat, nitrates, cigarettes and alcohol to try and reduce these down as well? So what is your plan, given Covid is going to be with us forever, how many more businesses do we sacrifice, how many peoples lives do we ruin, how many more suicides are acceptable in our quest to eliminate.

You really don't get it do you? They are at 70% Vaccination and they are having over 400 deaths per week, Most of the other causes you mention are PREVENTABLE; yes we have policy to reduce tobacco, alcohol and drug use = why is booze and tobacco taxed? We encourage exercise and we have public health measures to improve outcomes in relation to poverty.

Regarding suicides - you do know the rate went down during lockdown one? Also, debt. We have debt that is 24% of GDP; most of Europe, the US and Canada have borrowing well over 100% of GDP. Our economy is stronger than post. There were FEWER business closures during Covid than the GFC. Remember the UK had over 135K dead, and this is a guess, not a realistic calculation as the numbers have been fudged.

The way out is to keep up what we are doing until we get as close to 100% vaccination as we can. In Aussie everyone, except NSW, are continuing to do the same.

[Ollie Onion]

Let me guess, you have been paid throughout? Economy in great shape my arse, I know many people who have lost everything as they were not privileged enough to work for an airline with an endless line of credit from the government. I ask you again, when we get as close to 100% vaccination as possible (what does that mean by the way, is it 80% or 73%) where too from then? Please answer that, are we opening borders, are we still locking down, are we allowing free travel for the vaccinated. WHEN Covid becomes endemic which it will what is the plan? Everyone else has realised that once Covid is in we have no choice but to live with it, the Governments own report even said that. Now I can see if you are sitting at home retired on the pension, or indeed working for Air NZ on full pay then lockdowns wouldn’t be a problem, that is not the reality for many people.

as for suicides, most countries in the world that used lockdowns have seen a dramatic rise in suicides and attempts in their young populations, here is an example: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9896667/Coronavirus-Australia-Alarming-rise-teenage-girls-taking-lives-shadow-pandemic.html

Our own PM is becoming increasingly concerned about our mental well-being, she spent 10 minutes of her press conference yesterday promoting various mental health resources…. Why, because they can see the trend and the toll this is taking on people.

get the jab and let’s get on with life,

[go123]

This is the problem - we have recently had an email from ALPA saying there are lawyers crawling over legislation on whether the government is able to mandate vaccinations within our international pilot group. This is pretty shocking and disappointing. If our own colleagues, who are presumably ‘reasonably intelligent’ aren’t prepared to get a jab, what do you think the final vaccination rate will be with the general public. Skeggs report and recent commentary has admitted that 2021 is the ‘Golden Year’ there will be more lockdowns next year, guaranteed.

[continue#1]

This is the problem - we have recently had an email from ALPA saying there are lawyers crawling over legislation on whether the government is able to mandate vaccinations within our international pilot group. This is pretty shocking and disappointing. If our own colleagues, who are presumably ‘reasonably intelligent’ aren’t prepared to get a jab, what do you think the final vaccination rate will be with the general public. Skeggs report and recent commentary has admitted that 2021 is the ‘Golden Year’ there will be more lockdowns next year, guaranteed.

Totally agree! Can’t say I’m happy with NZALPA throwing resources into this . Just get the jab or not, if not, resign and let pilots come back from furlough.

[Konyagi]

This is the problem - we have recently had an email from ALPA saying there are lawyers crawling over legislation on whether the government is able to mandate vaccinations within our international pilot group. This is pretty shocking and disappointing. If our own colleagues, who are presumably ‘reasonably intelligent’ aren’t prepared to get a jab, what do you think the final vaccination rate will be with the general public. Skeggs report and recent commentary has admitted that 2021 is the ‘Golden Year’ there will be more lockdowns next year, guaranteed.

Agreed. Wasting resources on this for a handful of conspiracy theorists is ridiculous.

If you’re an anti vaxxer, maybe a career in the international travel industry just isn’t for you.

[Anti Skid On]

Let me guess, you have been paid throughout? Economy in great shape my arse, I know many people who have lost everything as they were not privileged enough to work for an airline with an endless line of credit from the government. I ask you again, when we get as close to 100% vaccination as possible (what does that mean by the way, is it 80% or 73%) where too from then? Please answer that, are we opening borders, are we still locking down, are we allowing free travel for the vaccinated. WHEN Covid becomes endemic which it will what is the plan? Everyone else has realised that once Covid is in we have no choice but to live with it, the Governments own report even said that. Now I can see if you are sitting at home retired on the pension, or indeed working for Air NZ on full pay then lockdowns wouldn’t be a problem, that is not the reality for many people.

as for suicides, most countries in the world that used lockdowns have seen a dramatic rise in suicides and attempts in their young populations, here is an example: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9896667/Coronavirus-Australia-Alarming-rise-teenage-girls-taking-lives-shadow-pandemic.html

Our own PM is becoming increasingly concerned about our mental well-being, she spent 10 minutes of her press conference yesterday promoting various mental health resources…. Why, because they can see the trend and the toll this is taking on people.

get the jab and let’s get on with life,


Daily Mail; sorry not buying that, not a reliable source.

100% is 100%; we will never get that, as under 12's aren't eligible (yet),plus there will always be those who can't or won't have the jab (I've had both). The plan was recently released by the government and developed by Professor David Skegg..

If you cannot accept we are in a better situation than other countries, then I'll respect your view, but disagree with you. I personally do not wish to see this in NZ.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/30/oregon-coronavirus-deaths-hospitals-morgues

[ElZilcho]

Agreed. Wasting resources on this for a handful of conspiracy theorists is ridiculous.

If you’re an anti vaxxer, maybe a career in the international travel industry just isn’t for you.

At the moment, there is no more Green flying so at best (if/when we come out of Lockdown) they could fly Domestic only as any Legal Challenge through the Courts will likely take a very long time, especially with Lockdowns clogging up the system.​​​​​​
But, Even if they manage to win the Battle against the Government mandate
And if they go onto win against the Company requiring Vaccines (currently being discussed),
What will it matter when the entire World is taking steps towards COVID Passports for future travel? Who will they take to Court then?

The ARP's (Age Restricted Pilots, over 65's) could only claim rights to Domestic/Tasman/Pacific Island flying because those Countries were aligned with NZ in regards to mandatory retirement age.
How many Countries will allow unrestricted entry for Unvaccinated arrivals in the next few years?

I suppose we'll soon find out just how convicted they are with the deadline looming. Again, even if they're confident of beating this in Court, I doubt they'll get to bring it before a Judge anytime soon.

[Ollie Onion]

Daily Mail; sorry not buying that, not a reliable source.

100% is 100%; we will never get that, as under 12's aren't eligible (yet),plus there will always be those who can't or won't have the jab (I've had both). The plan was recently released by the government and developed by Professor David Skegg..

If you cannot accept we are in a better situation than other countries, then I'll respect your view, but disagree with you. I personally do not wish to see this in NZ.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/30/oregon-coronavirus-deaths-hospitals-morgues


so what you are saying is you don’t accept any information that conflicts with yours as a ‘reliable’ source. I will ask you once again, what is you plan, if we get say 80% vaccination, is your solution we keep the borders closed and using lockdowns as we are to keep covid out forever........

I can’t see that we are better off, we are stuck in a level 4 lockdown when the rest of the world is moving on. My mates in the UK are back to flying full time, are taking holidays in Europe and the USA and their kids are back at school, they know that they won’t be locking down again so the certainty they have is much better than ours. Skaggs also said in his report it is unrealistic to think we can keep Covid out and at some point elimination will be a failed strategy, I am asking you what is your plan to prepare for this.

by the way, you realise those States that are asking for extra morgue space are having to do so because the vaccine uptake is so bad and the unvaccinated are getting very sick.

[Anti Skid On]

so what you are saying is you don’t accept any information that conflicts with yours as a ‘reliable’ source. I will ask you once again, what is you plan, if we get say 80% vaccination, is your solution we keep the borders closed and using lockdowns as we are to keep covid out forever........

I can’t see that we are better off, we are stuck in a level 4 lockdown when the rest of the world is moving on. My mates in the UK are back to flying full time, are taking holidays in Europe and the USA and their kids are back at school, they know that they won’t be locking down again so the certainty they have is much better than ours. Skaggs also said in his report it is unrealistic to think we can keep Covid out and at some point elimination will be a failed strategy, I am asking you what is your plan to prepare for this.

by the way, you realise those States that are asking for extra morgue space are having to do so because the vaccine uptake is so bad and the unvaccinated are getting very sick.

The plan is to get as close to 100% and then open the border, accepting only vaccinated people from countries where they have limited spread. That is exactly what we need to do; we cannot cope with a large outbreak. WE will open when WE are ready. It is also the model Australia and others will have.

We are only in lockdown because we had community transmission of delta variant; we have been in level 1 for 6 months; where I live I'll be in L3 at midnight and hopefully in L2 next week, and L1 soon after.

If Europe and the USA are so great, feel free to go there; if you remember, our kids have been at school for over 6 months without any issues and everyone has been living normally. Our GDP continues to grow https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/gross-domestic-product-march-2021-quarter

As for our economy tanking and us borrowing so much; our debt to GDP ratio is currently around 24%; our GDP is US$20,000,000,000; which means we could borrow US$15,000,000,000 and still have less debt than the US, UK, Japan, France, etc.

[Ollie Onion]

Sounds like unvaccinated pilots will be down the road on long term LWOP, that is what I am hearing. And that is going to be Air NZ Group Wide.

[ElZilcho]

The plan is to get as close to 100% and then open the border, accepting only vaccinated people from countries where they have limited spread. That is exactly what we need to do; we cannot cope with a large outbreak. WE will open when WE are ready. It is also the model Australia and others will have.

We are only in lockdown because we had community transmission of delta variant; we have been in level 1 for 6 months; where I live I'll be in L3 at midnight and hopefully in L2 next week, and L1 soon after.

If Europe and the USA are so great, feel free to go there; if you remember, our kids have been at school for over 6 months without any issues and everyone has been living normally. Our GDP continues to grow https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/gross-domestic-product-march-2021-quarter

As for our economy tanking and us borrowing so much; our debt to GDP ratio is currently around 24%; our GDP is US$20,000,000,000; which means we could borrow US$15,000,000,000 and still have less debt than the US, UK, Japan, France, etc.

We are losing Herd immunity to Measles due to the spread of Anti-Vaxx rhetoric and thus will never get anywhere close to 100% Vaccination uptake given how many people, who aren't strictly Anti-Vaxx, refuse to accept the severity of COVID.
So if We will open when we are ready, and the definition of ready is close to 100% Vaccination status, then we won't be opening. Ever.

Sounds like unvaccinated pilots will be down the road on long term LWOP, that is what I am hearing. And that is going to be Air NZ Group Wide.

Potentially yes. Up to 10 years LWOP, retaining service benefits for the first 5. But this hinges on the Companies decision to require Vaccination for all frontline staff. The Government mandate would allow non-vaccinated Pilots to crew the A320 on Domestic services and possibly Tasman/Pacific returns if bubbles return, as the mandate relates to Layovers.

However, similar to QF (I believe) Air NZ are considering mandating the Vaccine for all frontline staff which would prohibit these Pilots from operating entirely and thus LWOP would avoid termination.

[Logan31]

Get use to the new normal....Air NZ will become a short haul operator as will Qantas
..just a matter of time
..sad really but it is what it is

[Chris2303]

Carrots work a hell of a lot better than sticks.

$1000 staff travel vouchers perhaps?

[Ollie Onion]

Does that get paid to everyone who has done the right thing and got the jab for the good of everyone.

[MCDU2]

The anti vax issue has been thrown around a fair amount and the lawyers are starting to get their teeth into it over here in Europe. Regular articles and opinions are being put out there by learned colleagues as we are out of lockdowns and businesses are now returning to offices. The general consensus within the aviation sector is that being an anti vaxxer won't fly. You can argue discrimination and infringement of human rights all you like but the reality is most of us have standard T&Cs in our employment contracts requiring us to have unrestricted travel, valid passports, obtain background checks for AICs, pass visa checks and comply with local and international laws whilst undertaking company business etc. The legal view in Europe at least would appear to be that our employers will be well within their rights to insist on having all employees vaxxed and whilst they will undoubtedly "respect" your inherent human rights to not partake unfortunately this will do harm to their business and you will be in contravention of your obligations as an employee as set out in your employment contract. The only avenue remaining to you is to hope that you have an understanding employer who is prepared to write rosters that will enable you to fly to countries in the future that do not require you to be vaccinated. I think we can figure out the chances of that happening.

[6080ft]

As far as I am concerned the anti Vax brigade can be shown the door, and some of the furloughed pilots can be brought back.

The anti vaxers will be the first ones to have the company up over heath and safety if they end up seriously sick from catching COVID.

[27/09]

Totally agree! Can’t say I’m happy with NZALPA throwing resources into this . Just get the jab or not, if not, resign and let pilots come back from furlough.
I think it was money well spent.

I have no idea if or how many "anti vax" crew there might be. No doubt like any group of the population there will be some.

My take on what ALPA said was we have done the research and our advice is if you're contemplating any court action be prepared for a whopping legal bill and your chances of success are very slim. It was basically a wake up call for anyone caught up the in the Vaccination Order who were thinking they may fight to retain the their job if they refuse the vaccine.

I thought it was very good advice and the sort of stuff any worker organisation should be giving to their members. Personally I think the anti vaxxers are being short sighted and selfish in refusing the Covid vaccine. This sort of information allows then to make an informed choice about choosing their job or not having the vaccine.

[Ollie Onion]

I also think the NZALPA email was great, they have spent a bit of time and money now so that they can say that any thoughts of court action are likely to lead to a lengthy and costly exercise. From talking to senior ALPA people they will use this advice as the basis for refusing to fund any challenges to vaccine mandate, this is a win for the majority of NZALPA members. Alan Joyce said it best last week when he said 'if you want to be involved in Aviation going forward you will need to be vaccinated'.