Becoming a pilot After COVID-19

[DvEsp787]

Hey, this is my first post on PPRuNe.

I am hoping to start my Integrated ATPL course by the end of this year/next year but, I have been seeing threads on PPRuNe saying that the bonanza of pilot shortage would simply not exist for the next 5-10 years/after COVID.
To quote, Flying Clog posted under Rumors and news: "The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019".
I am just another aspiring airline pilot but looking at the current and predicted situation should I look for something else rather than becoming a pilot?

Please correct me if I am wrong and I would love some advice, feedback, thoughts or whether I should pursue this dream forward...

[covec]

Hey, this is my first post on PPRuNe.

I am hoping to start my Integrated ATPL course by the end of this year/next year but, I have been seeing threads on PPRuNe saying that the bonanza of pilot shortage would simply not exist for the next 5-10 years/after COVID.
To quote, Flying Clog posted under Rumors and news: "The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019".
I am just another aspiring airline pilot but looking at the current and predicted situation should I look for something else rather than becoming a pilot?

Please correct me if I am wrong and I would love some advice, feedback, thoughts or whether I should pursue this dream forward...

Personally I would go Modular. I have 1000 hours albeit as a GA Flying Instructor. My airline Sim Assessment was cancelled in November and since then the HR department for that airline has stated that it is seeking qualified Flybe crew or Type Rated crew only. And now they are seeking government aid.

In the UK, with BMI, Monarch, TC & Flybe all gone & other airlines (including easyjet) are struggling. There are a lot of experienced, redundant crews out there and it will take time to reabsorb them back into flying (if that is what they wish).

Get a job or alternative profession to fall back on. Save your cash. Train Modular. Go for a Single Pilot Licence not MPL so that you could add an FI Rating if you wished.

The flying public are going to need time to recover before discretionary spending picks up - the economy is likely badly damaged. Choice of a holiday abroad or saving for a rainy day then I suspect that a lot of people will now go for the latter - my family certainly are: might look at a holiday next year - no way are we going to fight our way through crowded airports and transport infrastructure only weeks after a pandemic!!!

[DvEsp787]

It is sad to see these airlines closing down one after the other. Though, I think I will take up a job and go ahead with modular training.

Thanks!

[flocci_non_faccio]

There will be no jobs for ANY pilots, let alone cadets, for the next decade at least. It is beyond belief that people are still even considering training now.

Conservatively, there will shortly be 3-4000 unemployed pilots on the market in the UK alone once the inevitable redundancies kick in. The majority will never get a flying job ever again.

[Northern Monkey]

While the hysterical reaction of the preceding post is likely nonsense, I do think now is a terrible time to consider going into flight training. There will likely be a surplus of pilots worldwide for the foreseeable future and getting a job anytime soon will be impossible.

If you have your heart set on it I would reassess the situation in 12 months and see where we are.

[flocci_non_faccio]

Anyone who thinks it's a hysterical reaction has their head firmly in the sand.
easyJet are talking about shrinking by a third: that is 1000+ pilots gone straight away. BA I'd expect to do the same: that's another 1200+ gone. Virgin may well not survive: I'm not sure of their pilot numbers but 8-900 would be a reasonable guess. TUI and Jet2 will shrink by an undetermined amount: let's be optimistic and say they get rid of 500 pilots each. That's 4000+ pilots gone without even considering the smaller carriers or Ryanair which isn't a UK carrier (albeit with a huge UK presence). It's also to say nothing of those still employed after the collapses of TCX and Flybe. Now I've actually looked in more depth, my original estimate of 3-4000 unemployed pilots looks wildly optimistic. It is probably closer to 6000, the majority of whom will never fly again and will never get a job which pays even an appreciable fraction of their current salary.

Be in no doubt that there is absolutely no reason to have even the faintest glimmer of hope.

[bingofuel]

Assuming you are fairly young, Initially get a job/ skill that will give you a good standard of living as your main employment. Join a flying club and learn to fly to PPL standard, slowly develop your skills and enjoy your flying. Then in 10 years time if the Pilot market recovers you should be financially stable and can take the risk of modular training ( or whatever the system is then) and gain a professional licence. At that point you will have some experience, and be ‘freshly’ out of training which is beneficial when job hunting. If you really want to fly you will manage it at some point in your life but it may be a ‘second career’ much later on.

[Northern Monkey]

Anyone who thinks it's a hysterical reaction has their head firmly in the sand.
easyJet are talking about shrinking by a third: that is 1000+ pilots gone straight away. BA I'd expect to do the same: that's another 1200+ gone. Virgin may well not survive: I'm not sure of their pilot numbers but 8-900 would be a reasonable guess. TUI and Jet2 will shrink by an undetermined amount: let's be optimistic and say they get rid of 500 pilots each. That's 4000+ pilots gone without even considering the smaller carriers or Ryanair which isn't a UK carrier (albeit with a huge UK presence). It's also to say nothing of those still employed after the collapses of TCX and Flybe. Now I've actually looked in more depth, my original estimate of 3-4000 unemployed pilots looks wildly optimistic. It is probably closer to 6000, the majority of whom will never fly again and will never get a job which pays even an appreciable fraction of their current salary.

Be in no doubt that there is absolutely no reason to have even the faintest glimmer of hope.

What are you basing those projections on, other than licking your finger and sticking it up in the wind? Why do you think BA will shrink by a third and not one half, or a quarter, or an eighth?

The reality is no one knows how this is going to play out, exactly. We can't say for sure what demand will be in 5 years from now. Anyone claiming otherwise is full of hot air and nothing else. What is needed is a common sense approach. Do not start pilot training now. Build up your cash reserve as much as possible and adopt a wait and see approach. That's the most any of us can do, whether we are currently employed or not.

[VariablePitchP]

Hey, this is my first post on PPRuNe.

I am hoping to start my Integrated ATPL course by the end of this year/next year but, I have been seeing threads on PPRuNe saying that the bonanza of pilot shortage would simply not exist for the next 5-10 years/after COVID.
To quote, Flying Clog posted under Rumors and news: "The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019".
I am just another aspiring airline pilot but looking at the current and predicted situation should I look for something else rather than becoming a pilot?

Please correct me if I am wrong and I would love some advice, feedback, thoughts or whether I should pursue this dream forward...

Firstly, if Flying Clog could actually predict the future he wouldn’t be posting on here, he’d be counting his twentieth billion as a stock trader in Manhattan. You get my point... Not saying it’s an invalid opinion, but it is just an opinion.

I think it depends on how you’re funding the training as to what you should do. 3 options really

1. Your parents are loaded and are paying for the course, then go integrated. Money isn’t an issue so don’t need to worry about being modular and working on the side. Even if it takes you a bit of time to get the job you’ll have fun training and it’ll all be reasonably consistent if it’s from one provider. And in the unlikely event you never get a job it doesn’t really matter.
2. Parents are providing you security to remortgage/get a loan. I’d be careful going down this route at the moment because, whilst the economy may well rebound and you could get hired quickly, it might not. You don’t want to turf your parents out of their house because you can’t repay your loan. To be honest in this scenario the funding is all or nothing so I’d just leave it a year and reassess. 80k vs 100k modular vs integrated isn’t the issue here.
3. You’re saving to pay for it. Therefore you’re presumably in a good job already? If not, go and get one that allows you to save. Then go modular, worst case you slowly get hours and keep working. Best case you can suddenly turn on the taps and fire out all your licence requirements sharpish.

Advice about 10 years in another career first? Bit extreme for a backup job. Remember, most people have a back up job only as a backup, most don’t actually use it and if they do only for a short time. Unless you lose your medical or are just terrible at flying, there’s no reason why you wouldn’t be able to be a pilot for most of your working life. Don’t find many accountants who first got a two year plumbing qualification as a ‘backup’. 9/11 passed, as did the global crash. COVID is worse, no doubt about it, but the worlds population will keep increasing, as will people’s desire to fly. Long term this will be a (long and somewhat painful) blip.

You wouldn’t suddenly sell your pension fund just because the markets have crashed and never buy shares again? Why? Because you know it will recover if you ride it out, just the same for flying.

[flocci_non_faccio]

What are you basing those projections on, other than licking your finger and sticking it up in the wind? Why do you think BA will shrink by a third and not one half, or a quarter, or an eighth.

I'm basing them on observation and common sense. I actually think that my numbers are still massively optimistic. I'd be very surprised if more than half of currently employed pilots in the UK keep their jobs.

[Northern Monkey]

I think maybe you need to go and sit in a quiet room and listen to some headspace for a while. Turn off the news. Unplug.

Doom mongers are two a penny at the moment and your "observation and common sense" are worth precisely diddly squat right now. You can't see the future any more than I, or anyone else for that matter.

[bluewhy]

Well said NM. Totally agreed. Keyboard terrorism is not helping anyone at the moment. Especially people that are dead worried about their training and investments.

Some people need to seriously take a break.

[PPRuNeUser0185]

A lot of scare-mongering here frankly. I understand people trying to advise, but there's a lot of personal opinion in how they think the industry will fair, and ultimately, no one knows what's going to happen so making rash predictions isn't helping.

Undoubtedly, the aviation industry has been severely disrupted by COVID-19; not a surprise. However, before people start plucking these numbers off the top of their head "oh yeah it'll be a decade before the industry gets back to normal" or "don't even think about training", people need to realise that the industry simply cannot be predicted accurately in this current moment.

The coming weeks and months will be the decider in how the industry will fair in the foreseeable future. I acknowledge that it will be a rough regeneration of the industry, but it will get back to some form of normality. When and how? No one knows and that's a fact.

If you're sitting here and thinking about starting training, I wouldn't do anything soon. Just wait. As I said, these coming months will give a better insight into how the industry will cope, because frankly, we haven't seen the worst yet, therefore we don't know what to expect and thus base our predictions on.

You have got to remember that most training courses last 18+ months, so you'll be entering the industry in 2022 or there abouts. By 2022 and beyond, the industry we're looking at today will be very different. That's something you should consider.
Whether the industry in 2022 is actually healthy, once again, no one knows. It could be that there is a large pilot surplus, and thus little room for new cadet vacancies; or it could be a recovering industry with signs of hope and growth.

Bottom line, no one knows. Best advice I can give is to just monitor the industry in these coming months, it will give a good indication in how the industry will recover in the future, and when you've got that, then you'll be able to make more solid decisions on training. At the moment, it's too early to make predictions because a lot can happen in a very short space of time in this current climate.

[A320LGW]

Hey, this is my first post on PPRuNe.

I am hoping to start my Integrated ATPL course by the end of this year/next year but, I have been seeing threads on PPRuNe saying that the bonanza of pilot shortage would simply not exist for the next 5-10 years/after COVID.
To quote, Flying Clog posted under Rumors and news: "The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019".
I am just another aspiring airline pilot but looking at the current and predicted situation should I look for something else rather than becoming a pilot?

Please correct me if I am wrong and I would love some advice, feedback, thoughts or whether I should pursue this dream forward...

If you have your heart absolutely set on becoming a pilot, then you become a pilot. Do not let anyone on here or elsewhere convince you otherwise.

In this industry there are lots of people who chose to become pilots without having their absolute heart and soul set on it, these are the naysayers of today and people who complain as much as they breathe. Non-coincidentally these are also 'the sky is falling' doomsday folk on here.

I can happily say that despite every downside to the job and uncertainty of the industry I still would not give up this career for anything. You will have found out for yourself by now that a number of our colleagues do not share the same opinion and think we're better off being in all manner of other jobs. I personally feel that opinion is absurd, yes we are going through a hard time, but name me an industry other than health services, petrol stations and supermarkets that isn't? Things will get better.

For anyone to imply no one will hire pilots post this event for 5-10 years, that's fanciful. We will need pilots before then and i would bet my house there will be an airline hiring again within the next 2/3 years, it is as sure as day. There will always be unemployed pilots, throughout one of the biggest hiring booms this industry has seen (2015-2018) there were still unemployed pilots. That's the nature of the world, that doesn't mean no one will be hiring!

If i was pre-ATPL i would consider starting sometime later this year or early next year. It's a good 20 month lead time from start to finish anyway, so between right now and then is about 3 years if you start early 2021, the entire landscape will be different again.

I wish you all the very best.

[macdo]

Thought I'd add a personal experience. I qualified on the exact month the UK job market for pilots collapsed a couple of decades ago. It took 2 1/2 years to get a foothold in a turboprop and a further 2 years before a jet job came along. During that time I continued to Instruct and scratched out a meagre living. Eventually, due to family circumstances I had to give up flying and loaded bags at Heathrow for a year to survive. By lucky chance in conversation with a management pilot on the ramp I got told that an airline was recruiting and I got a job. After countless CV's sent and banging on doors in person, my only interview and job offer was by chance. The point I wanted to make is that you must be able to plan a survival strategy for however long you think this Covid19 earthquake will take to pass. Potentially, there could be literally 1000's of qualified and experienced pilots on the market this time next year, all of whom will get a look in before you. Airlines are ruthless scavengers of talent. If one of my children was intent on flying I would advise them to delay for at least 3 years and use the time to gain another way of earning a crust to fall back on before following their dream.

[student88]

Anyone who thinks it's a hysterical reaction has their head firmly in the sand.
easyJet are talking about shrinking by a third: that is 1000+ pilots gone straight away. BA I'd expect to do the same: that's another 1200+ gone. Virgin may well not survive: I'm not sure of their pilot numbers but 8-900 would be a reasonable guess. TUI and Jet2 will shrink by an undetermined amount: let's be optimistic and say they get rid of 500 pilots each. That's 4000+ pilots gone without even considering the smaller carriers or Ryanair which isn't a UK carrier (albeit with a huge UK presence). It's also to say nothing of those still employed after the collapses of TCX and Flybe. Now I've actually looked in more depth, my original estimate of 3-4000 unemployed pilots looks wildly optimistic. It is probably closer to 6000, the majority of whom will never fly again and will never get a job which pays even an appreciable fraction of their current salary.

Be in no doubt that there is absolutely no reason to have even the faintest glimmer of hope.

Unfounded speculation and work of fiction at best. It's estimated over 700,000 new commercial pilots will be needed worldwide over the next 20 years. In the mean time:

Hold your position, learn about the industry (preferably not from PPRuNe or airliners.net - there are a number of 'industry experts' on these sites who have no idea what they're talking about).
Focus all your attention for now on your education and/or get a well-paid job which gives you plenty of time off (you'll need it when it comes to ATPLs/modular training).
Save, save, save as much money as you can over from now onwards, you need to minimise your exposure to debt as much as possible from start to finish.
Don't start your PPL until you have enough money to finish it.
Go on eBay and find yourself some decent second hand PPL textbooks and start learning the theory (I recommend the Air Pilot's Manuals).
Apply for a PPL scholarship next time around with GAPAN or Air BP.
Look into joining a gliding club.

[q400_driver]

No economic downturn in the history has ever lasted for 8-10 years, not even Great Depression, no post war recessions, nothing. In 2011-14 if you would go for a CPL, people would call you crazy, same doomsday agenda, the only way to get a job, even in low costs was to go fly in Africa/Asia for a while, get 1500h and then MAYBE somebody would even bother to invite you for an assessment. Times changed over night and we saw some of the best years for young cadets in decades.

Nothing has really changed in the dynamics of global Economy. Sure, next few years will be tough, but as always, things will pick up. Right now most likely most decent schools in Europe have shut down already or will close shortly. Wait it out a little bit, there's nothing else you can do. Having a second career for times like these is a good advice.

Once the restrictions start to lift, one can assume an influx of high quality instructors into training industry. You want to do your pilot training when the economy is down - this typically means you get a good product for a low price. When times are good for the airlines, schools see high turnaround of instructors and you will deal with many instructors who will only have some 50-100h more than you do. Prices will be high and the attitudes from schools will go down. Nobody gives a toss about you when there are other students piling up.

Yes airlines are firing a LOT of pilots at the moment, but here's the thing..
First of all, airlines also have a LOT of metal sitting on the ground. These planes cost ridiculous money in leasing every month and there's no way out of it. Some airlines will go bankrupt but the machines will still make losses to somebody, be it a lessor, bank, an oil magnate, it doesn't matter - at some point they will need to fly again to pay themselves off and you will need people for that.
The second thing is - our human ability to listen to news, be intimidated, living in a lock down can only last for a year at best. Pretty soon the number of covid victims becomes nothing more than statistics and we will want to get back to our lives. It is in our DNA to travel. People need to get places, be it for study, business, family or pleasure. I can easily see governments starting to lift restrictions on many different things in next couple of months- ideally we could lift travel restrictions tomorrow with condition that everybody must wear a mask and people with symptoms are denied travel, we could make it a norm for most of our daily activities. Covid won't go away any time soon, but we will learn to live with it.

[DvEsp787]

Yes I think reassessing the situation after a period would be best.

Thank you for your response.

[flybyschool]

This is an extremely controversial topic... but I agree we need to take some time to breathe and think.

I would suggest monitoring this source of information to see how deep and more importantly, how long will this have an impact on airlines.
You will see scheduled flights have taken an huge drop in the last weeks. Some countries are dropping by nearly 90%!!!
On the brighter side (if any), China dropped by 71% then to recover to 37% (and then drop again)
By looking at this data, my interpretation is that the drop will be extremely significant but will also be limited in duration.

The issue is that most airlines have razor-thin margins...so, without support from governments, a lot of them will collapse... but i believe some others will come up!
The desire of people to travel and do business is much stronger than the individual companies
Stay strong, stay safe!
Alex
https://www.oag.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Coronavirus%20Web%20Page%202020/tracking-coronavirus-charts-300320/30-March-Global-Table.jpg?width=942&name=30-March-Global-Table.jpg
https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data

[Christopher Robin]

I would like to wish you luck and say enjoy your flying see you on the flight line one day

Oh and it is not the end of aviation full stop.

[covec]

I have 1000 hours FI. Assessment cx. Friends flying with the airline tell me that all TR training stopped. And only Flybe or ATR TR crews will be considered now. This was before CV-19, so Lord knows now.

[Banana Joe]

I suggest modular, but not sure I would suggest the same to a UK national with Brexit, Flybe, Monarch and possible redundancies at BA.

[Banana Joe]

No economic downturn in the history has ever lasted for 8-10 years, not even Great Depression, no post war recessions, nothing. In 2011-14 if you would go for a CPL, people would call you crazy, same doomsday agenda, the only way to get a job, even in low costs was to go fly in Africa/Asia for a while, get 1500h and then MAYBE somebody would even bother to invite you for an assessment. Times changed over night and we saw some of the best years for young cadets in decades.

Nothing has really changed in the dynamics of global Economy. Sure, next few years will be tough, but as always, things will pick up. Right now most likely most decent schools in Europe have shut down already or will close shortly. Wait it out a little bit, there's nothing else you can do. Having a second career for times like these is a good advice.

Once the restrictions start to lift, one can assume an influx of high quality instructors into training industry. You want to do your pilot training when the economy is down - this typically means you get a good product for a low price. When times are good for the airlines, schools see high turnaround of instructors and you will deal with many instructors who will only have some 50-100h more than you do. Prices will be high and the attitudes from schools will go down. Nobody gives a toss about you when there are other students piling up.

Yes airlines are firing a LOT of pilots at the moment, but here's the thing..
First of all, airlines also have a LOT of metal sitting on the ground. These planes cost ridiculous money in leasing every month and there's no way out of it. Some airlines will go bankrupt but the machines will still make losses to somebody, be it a lessor, bank, an oil magnate, it doesn't matter - at some point they will need to fly again to pay themselves off and you will need people for that.
The second thing is - our human ability to listen to news, be intimidated, living in a lock down can only last for a year at best. Pretty soon the number of covid victims becomes nothing more than statistics and we will want to get back to our lives. It is in our DNA to travel. People need to get places, be it for study, business, family or pleasure. I can easily see governments starting to lift restrictions on many different things in next couple of months- ideally we could lift travel restrictions tomorrow with condition that everybody must wear a mask and people with symptoms are denied travel, we could make it a norm for most of our daily activities. Covid won't go away any time soon, but we will learn to live with it.
Excellent post. I agree with everything said.

[kpd]

I would urge you to do your own research and make your educated decision based upon facts, rather than taking my opinions or anybody else’s. Personally I like the truth. Unfortunately very few people are true realists and therefore a lot of the guidance you receive here will be influenced by the insecurities of the poster.

The facts to research should be:

- how many licensed ATPL’s exist and how many are in employment
​​​​​​- how many airframes are on order and how many orders have been cancelled
​​​​​- what is the UN’s objective from the cop26 climate change summit
​​​​- insurance companies’ current and future approach to virus cover
- the extent of quantitative easing and the impact upon the value of the £
- which airlines are making unsustainable losses and how many pilots they employ
- the level of investment being made into virtual connectivity
- the level of investment being made into aviation

Once you’ve gained a reasonable background knowledge of these key influencers the answer will be black and white, even if it’s not the answer you, or I, want to hear.

I will leave personal opinion out of this reply as I very much respect your position and genuinely hope that you make the right decision.


very informative reply. I have always wondered about the first point"- how many licensed ATPL’s exist and how many are in employment?"

how do you find that information say for UK? Thank you

[planesandthings]

I don't think there is a comprehensive way to do so, but a quick search of social media currently shows a number of pilots in the UK working minimum wage jobs to survive because they have been made redundant or their company has gone bust. . After the flying schools keep spewing cadets out, Flybe's demise and Thomas Cook (A number of the pilots who had new offers have now lost them) there must be up to 2000 people out of work.

[qwertyuiop]

I have had a fantastic career in aviation. It looks like it has been cut short by about a decade. I have 20k hours on a mix of military, Boeing and Airbus.
if you want to enjoy flying I reckon buying a C150 or similar is the best bet. Sad but true.

[Black Jake]

Newby pilot with no experience in next couple of years? Seriously? Suggest you invest your parent's savings in a trade likely to be needed - how about undertaker?

[tsvpilot]

I couldn’t agree more.

It is refreshing to see somebody of your experience offering truly useful insight as the OP could be about to make a monumental mistake and your unselfish comments may just help him / her.

There is plenty of dramatic end of the world "insights". The only useful insight anyone needs right now is to have patience and wait, we are still in mere weeks into this. The worst thing you can do is to rush into final conclusions of any kind.

[parkfell]

Those with an absolute passion (and ability) about becoming a pilot will continue to train when the restrictions are lifted, despite what the doom merchants say. Those without a burning desire to fly will hold back and might even go off the idea of becoming a junior birdman.

This may be regarded as the acid test, as a not inconsiderable number decide to train because of the perceived status/glamour associated with this profession.

Give me someone who demonstrated their passion as a “hangar rat” at their local flying club, or avid spotter any day of the week.

Sir Paul Nurse at the Crick Institute believes it will be a year before a vaccine is available for C-19.
That will bring some much needed certainty and confidence back to everyone.

[VariablePitchP]

Those with an absolute passion (and ability) about becoming a pilot will continue to train when the restrictions are lifted, despite what the doom merchants say. Those without a burning desire to fly will hold back and might even go off the idea of becoming a junior birdman.

This may be regarded as the acid test, as a not inconsiderable number decide to train because of the perceived status/glamour associated with this profession.

Give me someone who demonstrated their passion as a “hangar rat” at their local flying club, or avid spotter any day of the week.

Is that not a concern though? Now that the jobs market will dry up, no airline will be sponsoring people so the pool of talent is yet again reduced simply to people with rich parents who can afford to do the training and not worry about the risks of not getting a job.

You say you want to fly with a load of spotters? Really?! Surely you want a flight deck filled with pilots with a diverse background, people who have real life experience in previous jobs not just a load of flight sim nuts, I couldn’t think of anything worse, imagine having to sit through that chat for 12 hours every time you go to work :{

You say you want people with passion and ability to do it, this will achieve the opposite. You don’t need ability to be a pilot, just a big wallet sadly.

[parkfell]

Is that not a concern though? Now that the jobs market will dry up, no airline will be sponsoring people so the pool of talent is yet again reduced simply to people with rich parents who can afford to do the training and not worry about the risks of not getting a job.

You say you want to fly with a load of spotters? Really?! Surely you want a flight deck filled with pilots with a diverse background, people who have real life experience in previous jobs not just a load of flight sim nuts, I couldn’t think of anything worse, imagine having to sit through that chat for 12 hours every time you go to work :{

You say you want people with passion and ability to do it, this will achieve the opposite. You don’t need ability to be a pilot, just a big wallet sadly.

The only airline fully sponsoring prior to C-19 was Aer Lingus, and their students are both enthusiastic and talented. A few other outfits sponsor the type rating with bonding.

Yes, rich parents will continue to fund their children, although that is likely to be fewer in the short term with their investments taking a hit. A significant number of parents have remortgaged their houses to fund the training. I suspect that it would be a concern to parents if the opportunities for employment where minimal?

The modular route undoubtedly does produce the most diverse source of pilots, and doesn’t necessary require the “big wallet” up front, if you continue to work and save like the majority of those on this route. I do maintain that a passion and determination are essential ingredients for this route, or in my day the “self improver route”. No courses as such. Simply apply for the written exams, and sufficient flying training to pass the flying tests.

Regarding the spotters ~ I should have said in ones youth, with others being “hangar rats”. A stage which young people go through; part of the metamorphosis which embryonic pilots go through before they start their journey.

The “flight sim nuts” invariably stay as ‘flight sim nuts’. They have been known to have their live on line flying skills assessed by a current TRE. I know at least airline pilot who carried out this rôle !! I was surprised when I was told that by a reliable source.

[A320LGW]

The “flight sim nuts” invariably stay as ‘flight sim nuts’. They have been known to have their live on line flying skills assessed by a current TRE. I know at least airline pilot who carried out this rôle !! I was surprised when I was told that by a reliable source.

I maintain that a 4 sector day in an aircraft is infinitely less stressful than trying to do a flight on any flight sim, between the system bugs and sim crashes combined with the nightmare of trying to navigate the various online tools for vatsim etc for which you need a degree in IT, I shudder to think back to all the bad memories.

Strolling down to the gate at 6am coffee in hand and getting on board to start with the prelims and getting the show on the road has proven to be a far more stress free and unimaginably more enjoyable experience.

Anyhow, I agree, those with a burning passion for flight and to be upfront, those who feel their life wouldn't be complete without becoming a pilot - they will make it. This situation is very serious, but it will pass, like all other storms.

My advice to anyone sitting around, be they in school or university or laid off from another job they got involved with, I would advise doing something useful. Try to learn a new language, get a job in the local supermarket or volunteer, do something. When all this is over, it wouldn't be beyond reason to be asked in an interview what you did with your time during the COVID crisis. It will be a great indicator of what kind of a person you are. Did you lounge about all day or did you try to advance yourself in another area? Lots of brownie points I expect for those who can say they signed up to an online language course or helped the local volunteer group in checking up on the elderly neighbours etc.

[kpd]

According to the CAA there were 13,321 licensed ATPL’s and CPL’s in 2018
thanks for that

[UAV689]

If anyone is still considering flying training, do it modular at this time. Keep down a job at the same time. Pace it out. I chose this path in 2008, and dragged my training out, came out of it with no debt, and a backup career.

All the the lads I know that went to the glossy and beautiful integrated schools regretted it, they all sat on the job pile for years but with 100k loans for themselves or their parents to service, which at the time of a recession is madness. Many never got a job and walked away with a 100k beermat.

It it took me a number of years after the recession to get that job, and it was on the other side of the world as a bush pilot, until I got picked up by a lcc in Europe.

Be be prepared I am afraid for a long wait, so slow down training, try and get into as minimal debt as possible. Do not fall for the big schools lies in that they can get you into the right seat with their connections, airlines will not hire now for r, with exception being perhaps ryr and wizz. Salaries will take years to recover.

The effects are already happening. Lufty shutting down German wings. Do not forget that legacy carriers make a large portion of money from business travel, and that is not just in business class seats. Companies outside of aviation are shedding staff, current staff are getting used to working remotely, video conferencing has increased dramatically and it will take a long time for customers to change this mentality.

When legacies stop hiring, they are at the top of the food chain, it slows everything else. I expect even the RAF will slow down as short serve commissions sign on again as there is no civvy street work for them.

Post 2008 it took Ba and AF years to hire again. I expect something similar.

[parkfell]

The issue as ever is one of confidence. That will only start to improve once you are eventually vaccinated, or having experienced / suffered from C-19 you acquire the antibody immunity. And then the question arises how long protection will last.

I would not be entirely surprised that “evidence” in some shape or form will be required before you travel?

Although the air con cabin filters are extremely effective (99+%), anyone within say 2-3m of your seat is a potential threat. Would you want to take that risk whilst unprotected?

ATOs will clearly have a reduction in new customers until a much clearer picture emerges.
Historically supply has always lagged behind demand.

[CaptainCriticalAngle]

I received an email two days ago from L3 saying that they were now conducting assessments online and are still encouraging people to apply. Apparently they are also giving ATPL theory lessons online, which is good for the students I guess.

I'm a modular fan myself and have never bought into these expensive pilot factories. I'm just slightly perturbed by the nature of the email; they are still pushing people to apply. I guess if you started now, in 18 months the outlook could be better, but what a gamble.

For what it's worth, here's my tuppence for any wannabe pilots reading this - avoid MPLs, avoid the factories. Big is not always safe. Small schools are great and you won't be just a number. Modular produces better all-round pilots. Any training captain worth his salt (and it's normally a he) will know that.

[planesandthings]

L3 never ceases to amaze. Then again any ATO will become desperate with this current situation.

Learning from home with L3? Why on earth would anyone pay for partial distance learning at full whack. Who knows what they're marketing about the future, but it certainly isn't the truth.

Anyone thinking about signing for training on the dotted line right now needs to seriously question their own decision making processes. Anyone graduating now will be waiting two years for a job behind all the unemployment created.

Wait it out. Concur with the above comments completely.

[tsvpilot]

For what it's worth, here's my tuppence for any wannabe pilots reading this - avoid MPLs, avoid the factories. Big is not always safe. Small schools are great and you won't be just a number. Modular produces better all-round pilots. Any training captain worth his salt (and it's normally a he) will know that.

Anything to back up the above generalizations, other than mere speculation? I doubt there's any correlation with modular generally producing better pilots than integrated, nor small schools generally being better than big. All comes down to the individual level of talent & motivation and the quality of the training provided, regardless of how it's done. And you are also suggesting that male training captains are generally more capable than females, how so? To me, your comment sounds more like ignorance than knowledge.

[CaptainCriticalAngle]

Hello tsvpilot,

Right then, where do I start. Well, it's certainly been a long time since anyone called me ignorant, but look, I accept that this is not a scientific argument and neither side can actually win. But I'm sticking to my opinion that modular studies produces more well-rounded pilots. I could probably write a book about it but this isn't the place for a 20,000-word analysis.

I have been to most of the big integrated school, on more than one occasion. I know people who have been through the system and they tell me they felt like a number and not a student. I know people who have forked out £110,000 to study at a big school in Spain and are currently completing their ATPL theory studies online in London. They have mixed feelings about the system. Certainly, FI/student ratio is an issue, among others.

And I reiterate that I would never recommend anyone do an MPL. Well before the commercial aviation sector recovers to the level where they're taking on cadets in large numbers, there will be jobs to apply for in other sectors (just look at the NPAS website). An MPL will be useless here unless you spend another small fortune in training.

And I really do believe smaller schools have a more extended family-like atmosphere and that suits some people better. You can do an 'integrated modular' of course and you still have the flexibility to take a break and it's significantly cheaper because smaller schools don't have massive marketing overheads.

Lastly, and most crucially, where did I state that men are better pilots than women? My guess is that English is not your first language and that something has been lost in translation. I could have written 'every training captain worth his/her salt'. And anyway, the fact remains that most training captains are men, although I am sure this will change with time.

Happy Landings!

[UAV689]

Look out for the usa total workforce, 10% have lost their jobs in 2 weeks.

The secondary fall out of mortgage defaults could be worse than 2008. There is a phrase, if America sneezes, we catch the cold. Well this is worse than a sneeze, this is going to be bad.

I really do hate to say it, to train now is mad, but if you must, do it modular over a number of years.

To hand a mortgage amount of cash to an integrated school does not show good situational awareness!

[Cistor]

I received an email two days ago from L3 saying that they were now conducting assessments online and are still encouraging people to apply. Apparently they are also giving ATPL theory lessons online, which is good for the students I guess.

I'm a modular fan myself and have never bought into these expensive pilot factories. I'm just slightly perturbed by the nature of the email; they are still pushing people to apply. I guess if you started now, in 18 months the outlook could be better, but what a gamble.

For what it's worth, here's my tuppence for any wannabe pilots reading this - avoid MPLs, avoid the factories. Big is not always safe. Small schools are great and you won't be just a number. Modular produces better all-round pilots. Any training captain worth his salt (and it's normally a he) will know that.

Understatement. But you know it's all shiny...

[Banana Joe]

Go modular. Start now if you have a place nearby where they do training at this moment, otherwise wait but you can start studying. Good Oxford Aviation Academy's CBTs are available on YouTube for both PPL and ATPL level and Phil Croucher's books (paco on here) for both PPL and ATPL are great. A good read.

[covec]

Al Jazeera reporting UK new epicentre...be awhile yet afore the UK slides back into normality...then BREXIT...

[Northern Monkey]

I don't subscribe to the doom laden scenarios peddled by some whereby there are no new jobs for 10 years. However, now is categorically NOT the moment to start flight training, modular or otherwise. Despite whatever some flying schools may try to tell you.

[MaverickPrime]

I did all of training at small schools/clubs up until the CPL course. The rest was at a big ATO and I regret going to them.

[TryingToAvoidCBs]

Agree with virtually everything mentioned already, now is not the time to start training. It's the time to start looking at training providers, what you realistically can afford and where you realistically see yourself in the next 5-10 years with and without a pilots licence.
Integrated is a bad move, MPL even worse. If you are determined to start this year, as everyone has said, go modular. Take your time and don't plan on being finished until around 2025 at the earliest as I can't see any airlines hiring newbies within that time frame.
Remember if you finish earlier you're going to have to keep your licences and medical current anyway which is at least £1,000+ every year. Also remember once you've done your ATPLs, you've got 36 months to get everything else finished, so plan ahead and plan to be finished when you start to see positive changes in the industry. This is the beauty of the modular route, you can change your rate of training to match what's happening in the industry. And if you need to completely stop for a year or two, you can.

[parkfell]

..........If you are determined to start this year, as everyone has said, go modular. Take your time and don't plan on being finished until around 2025 at the earliest as I can't see any airlines hiring newbies within that time frame...........

Whilst it is quite correct that it will take a while, even considerable time, before ‘normal service is resumed’, no one knows just yet when that will be.
A clearer picture will emerge later this year, if not in months.

Do not despair.

If everyone took the advice above, then there would be no ATOs left when the upturn comes?
So deals will be available. Get your negotiating skills finely tuned. But be careful.
Avoid any payments up front for large discounts.

Carry out DUE DILIGENCE.

Fortunately the potential junior birdmen have sufficient grey manner to weigh up what is what.
They will decide the best time to commence, be it Modular or Integrated.

Provided your Class One Medical is renewed within 5 years of expiry, your AME (Class one) can renew it.
Ratings again: there are rules regarding those which have expired and need to be renewed. Look them up for the latest regulations.

I know that these are unbelievable times.
Far worse than the aftermath of 9/11.
Above all keep the faith.

[VariablePitchP]

Hello tsvpilot,

Right then, where do I start. Well, it's certainly been a long time since anyone called me ignorant, but look, I accept that this is not a scientific argument and neither side can actually win. But I'm sticking to my opinion that modular studies produces more well-rounded pilots. I could probably write a book about it but this isn't the place for a 20,000-word analysis.

I have been to most of the big integrated school, on more than one occasion. I know people who have been through the system and they tell me they felt like a number and not a student. I know people who have forked out £110,000 to study at a big school in Spain and are currently completing their ATPL theory studies online in London. They have mixed feelings about the system. Certainly, FI/student ratio is an issue, among others.

And I reiterate that I would never recommend anyone do an MPL. Well before the commercial aviation sector recovers to the level where they're taking on cadets in large numbers, there will be jobs to apply for in other sectors (just look at the NPAS website). An MPL will be useless here unless you spend another small fortune in training.

And I really do believe smaller schools have a more extended family-like atmosphere and that suits some people better. You can do an 'integrated modular' of course and you still have the flexibility to take a break and it's significantly cheaper because smaller schools don't have massive marketing overheads.

Lastly, and most crucially, where did I state that men are better pilots than women? My guess is that English is not your first language and that something has been lost in translation. I could have written 'every training captain worth his/her salt'. And anyway, the fact remains that most training captains are men, although I am sure this will change with time.

Happy Landings!

You can’t say modular makes ‘better pilots’, everyone passes the same CPL/IR tests, someone who spends five years doing the training will be fat rustier than a fresh integrated student.

Yes, L3 will treat you the same way they’d treat someone that had just poured a tonne of raw sewage into their head office. But that doesn’t mean their instructors are any less capable; they just happen to have got a job there.

I do agree with your point about the family atmosphere, FTE will never feel like a flying school and that is something I would have loved to have had that during my training.

Making the decision to go modular does not make you divinely gifted or morally superior, it’s just another way of training. It’s what I’d do at the moment, but that’s just because of the circumstances, not because it’s inherently better.

[A320LGW]

You can’t say modular makes ‘better pilots’, everyone passes the same CPL/IR tests, someone who spends five years doing the training will be fat rustier than a fresh integrated student.

Yes, L3 will treat you the same way they’d treat someone that had just poured a tonne of raw sewage into their head office. But that doesn’t mean their instructors are any less capable; they just happen to have got a job there.

I do agree with your point about the family atmosphere, FTE will never feel like a flying school and that is something I would have loved to have had that during my training.

Making the decision to go modular does not make you divinely gifted or morally superior, it’s just another way of training. It’s what I’d do at the moment, but that’s just because of the circumstances, not because it’s inherently better.

I'm not sure. I have seen some people who quite simply cannot fly, I have done assessments with them. I have no idea how they have a license, they were modular students ... yet they should not hold a license. Obviously some examiner somewhere thought otherwise and it really isn't my call, but to say I wouldn't like my family to ever be on board on aircraft with them is an understatement to say the very least.

The situational awareness of a blind chicken hopping about the farmyard coupled with the hand eye coordination of a 2 legged cat on steroids. It truly is astonishing what a simple sim session can reveal.

Unable to hold an altitude, not knowing how to use a VOR, not knowing how to intercept a radial, setting heading on course and vice versa, not knowing how to hold (forget how to join one), unable to fly towards intercepting a localiser and certainly unable to fly a stable ILS approach.

So one cannot simply say modular = good and integrated = bad, I am sure both systems have produced good and bad people.

What you perhaps could say is that those who went modular generally speaking (I emphasise generally speaking) are more mature and appreciative of the whole experience than someone who walked out of school straight into integrated flight school funded by their parents?

Ability wise though, it's totally unfounded that any training method delivers better pilots. Natural, raw ability is born in the person, it is not and cannot be taught by any training programme, regardless of the type.

[tsvpilot]

Hello tsvpilot,


Hi. You were right by saying bigger is not always better, but then to state that small schools are great (because you know a lot of people with bad experiences with big schools??) is a mere assumption. A well-run school is good regardless of its size and vice versa. The same applies to airlines, small airlines are not somehow better than bigger ones are they? And yet you are a number to most of them because after all, it's a business, but you can still expect a professional service as a customer. Often times the only difference is that a small company just has fewer planes & staff, but they can still have the same ratio of students as the bigger ones do. Small companies do not have a better organizational structure or better staff by default, this is entirely dependent on the competency and mindset of the management. The greater number of bad reviews towards bigger companies is of course because they train multiple times more students than smaller ones do. A size simply has nothing to do with how good/bad the school might be.

Then to claim that modular pilots are considered to be better pilots by the industry is just nonsense. There's nothing to base this upon other than your assumption/opinion. The training is essentially the same, same syllabus, same hours, same exams. The only variables are on the individual level and the flight training quality which are independent of the paths.

[Cistor]

You can’t say modular makes ‘better pilots’, everyone passes the same CPL/IR tests, someone who spends five years doing the training will be fat rustier than a fresh integrated student.

Yes, L3 will treat you the same way they’d treat someone that had just poured a tonne of raw sewage into their head office. But that doesn’t mean their instructors are any less capable; they just happen to have got a job there.

I do agree with your point about the family atmosphere, FTE will never feel like a flying school and that is something I would have loved to have had that during my training.

Making the decision to go modular does not make you divinely gifted or morally superior, it’s just another way of training. It’s what I’d do at the moment, but that’s just because of the circumstances, not because it’s inherently better.

Sorry if that's a but out of topic but what about the fact you take the CPL or IRME exam with the same guys that train you in your ATO?

I mean, does conflict of interest resonate in anyone's mind? I've always found that very questionable, especially if there's any intention to squeeze you out of a few more dollars...

[shaun ryder]

CaptainCriticalAngle
Small schools are great and you won't be just a number. Modular produces better all-round pilots. Any training captain worth his salt (and it's normally a he) will know that.

BS. I fly (well used too until this pandemic) with both modular and integrated cadets, you can NOT tell the difference. Admittedly you get the odd cocky bar steward who’s been to Uni then an integrated school. I will say that the modular people display more gumption rather than arrogance, the operating ability is generally the same. You are going to screw up regardless of where you have trained, it’s whether or not you can take the friendly advice and learn from your mistakes. You are always going to get some action man who knows better though.

I'm not sure. I have seen some people who quite simply cannot fly, I have done assessments with them. I have no idea how they have a license, they were modular students ... yet they should not hold a license. Obviously some examiner somewhere thought otherwise and it really isn't my call, but to say I wouldn't like my family to ever be on board on aircraft with them is an understatement to say the very least.


Don’t kid yourself, they aren’t all ‘modular’ students, see above. In a bygone era (ended a few months ago) the sausage factories pumped out these junior jet pilots to the various airline training depts, who then process them and lump them on the line captains. You’ve got the licence and rating, passed the line check, you only learn for real once on the line. That takes time regardless of an integrated or modular background. Passing the exams vs passion for aviation?

On to topic now; what’s more to say? Don’t blow your resources, be smart, the wind has changed for sure. Integrated ‘may now’ be the only way in for a new CPL just out of nappies. Supply and demand = the bar being raised.

[parkfell]

..........Unable to hold an altitude, not knowing how to use a VOR, not knowing how to intercept a radial, setting heading on course and vice versa, not knowing how to hold (forget how to join one), unable to fly towards intercepting a localiser and certainly unable to fly a stable ILS approach.

So one cannot simply say modular = good and integrated = bad, I am sure both systems have produced good and bad people..........

........ Natural, raw ability is born in the person, it is not and cannot be taught by any training programme.......

A320LGW is making some interesting and valid points.

Unless the ATOs Standards Departments ensure that new FIs are competent before being released to instruct, there are going to be issues. They set the ‘standard’ and also act as the QUALITY DEPARTMENT.

Carrying out a Progress Test can be very revealing as to the way the students are taught, and the quality of instruction.
Having multiple instructors in any phase of training is not recommended. Continuity is very important especially for the weaker brethren.

The fundamental skill which must be taught early in the training is accurate TRIMMING for the various visual attitudes and becomes a critical skill to fly a stabilised ILS approach.

The best way to teach students in the applied IF phase is to practice the route/approaches in the simulator the day before flying it the following day. The more routes and airports used during training the better.
A far greater awareness and airmanship develops.
Simply flying routes A & B prior to IR test does not develop the necessary skills, and results in the comments made by A320.

There is also high degree of correlation between learning curve demonstrated in IR training phase for CPL/IR issue and that seen during the MCC/JOC/APS course.
The experienced IR instructor will predict with a high degree of certainty whether the student is the “right stuff”.

[Richard Dangle]

Ironically Pprune is probably about the worst place to get advice about a career in commercial aviation right now, simply because most posters will be posting through emotion rather than rationality - they would lack humanity if they were not, because many on here are deeply attached to flying and will be in bits at what is happening right now...especially those whose mortgage currently depends on it, and my heart goes out to them.

There is far too much speculation as to what the future holds, especially as we are probably months away (2021) before any sort of normality returns to global commercial aviation and people are only guessing at the likely outcomes before we get going again, let alone afterwards. But I think it is inevitable that economics will not be the only factor in play. Globally the world will prepare for the next Covid or some such, so going forwards there is going to be some form of stringent medical border control, where currently there is very little (usually none). This will inevitably make international borders less porous than they were/are and significantly add to the costs of international travel.

It is also inevitable that business travel (not just air travel, all of it) will hugely reduce. This was happening anyway; Covid 19, has jammed the foot down on the gas pedal and then some. This is not speculation it is commercial business reality and it will spread to all sectors.

And before any of this was happening , there was an embryonic youth demographic emerging against the enviromental consequences of flying...that's not gone away, and that's tomorrows passengers we are talking about. As my boss puts it...flying is just not cool anymore.

I have no idea what commercial aviation will look like post Covid 19 and I doubt many people do. But I'm comfortably certain of two things:

1. We are not going back to what we had before.
2. Comparisons with previous events, not matter how dramatic, offer very few clues as to how this one will turn out.

My advice to prospective students wanting to enter the industry. Unless you or your parents have money to burn, now is not the time. And it fills me with sadness to say that, but anything else is hardly rational.

[MaverickPrime]

It is also inevitable that business travel (not just air travel, all of it) will hugely reduce.

They said similar in the wake of the 2008 recession; business travel wouldn’t recover and more people would holiday from home.

All of these managers and executives love an excuse for a cheeky ‘business’ trip, as soon as they can fly again they will.

As for the masses as soon as they can afford to and think it’s safe enough, they’ll be back in Benidorm and Tenerife.

I hear your sentiments about flying not being cool anymore, but I just don’t think this matters to the silent majority.

I’d be more worried about how this virus will accelerate the devaluation of money and increase the rate of inflation world wide which is what is making us all poorer.

[Richard Dangle]

^^

I'm not here to enter an debate about the future of flying, because none of us know it. All of your points are valid, but also debateable. As are mine.

I'm just here to give an honest, rational point of view (and its just one of many) to anybody thinking of spending money on flying training right now.

And my view is...wait until this over (completely over, ie a vaccine is operational). Then take stock and proceed with caution. Have a credible plan B.

And done. Stay safe all.

[3Greens]

And what If there isn’t a vaccine forthcoming? Like for all the other coronavirsues out there, like the cold? The whole world is throwing money at it, with the best scientists and big pharmaceutical companies and universities...and yet no one is even close right now because of the very nature of how corona viruses mutate.

[rudestuff]

Is there ever a good time to start training? Probably when others aren't. Sure, you could wait until the industry has recovered but then you'll be in the same position as everyone else. Or you could go for it now and spend a fortune keeping current only to be passed over because you qualified too long ago.
If someone has the money and the dream, then my advice would be to go for it 80%. By that I mean get a PPL, do some hour building, take the ATPL exams, get an IRR, CBIR and CPL - but do it all single engine.

​​​​Then stop.

You've just spent £30k to get within a month of the finish line, with all hoops jumped through. No need to worry about ATPLs expiring (for at least 7 years!) Nothing to keep current - just let everything lapse until you're ready for the last step - because you've only got 10 hours of MEP training and an MCC/JOC course left to do. When the time is right, you're a fATPL with a one month lead time. And when you write your CV the important bits (The MEIR and MCC/JOC) will be brand new.

[PilotLZ]

Is there ever a good time to start training? Probably when others aren't. Sure, you could wait until the industry has recovered but then you'll be in the same position as everyone else. Or you could go for it now and spend a fortune keeping current only to be passed over because you qualified too long ago.
If someone has the money and the dream, then my advice would be to go for it 80%. By that I mean get a PPL, do some hour building, take the ATPL exams, get an IRR, CBIR and CPL - but do it all single engine.

​​​​Then stop.

You've just spent £30k to get within a month of the finish line, with all hoops jumped through. No need to worry about ATPLs expiring (for at least 7 years!) Nothing to keep current - just let everything lapse until you're ready for the last step - because you've only got 10 hours of MEP training and an MCC/JOC course left to do. When the time is right, you're a fATPL with a one month lead time. And when you write your CV the important bits (The MEIR and MCC/JOC) will be brand new.
Very well said. One never knows what world we might be living in after 2, 3, 4 or 5 years. And getting up to the MEP IR, MCC and JOC bit is by no means quick business. I would say that 2 years from scratch to this point is a fairly optimistic timeline. Possibly more if you have to juggle it with a full-time job, a degree and less-than-perfect weather for most of the year.

[UAV689]

Norwegian crewing subsidiary’s failed

virgin oz now in administration
virgin Atlantic on shaky ground
Logan needs government support
cityjet Ireland administrators called in

alone these will put at a rough guess nearly 5000 qualifed pilots on the market?

not even started the shrinking of bizjet world yet, with the recession bizjet operations gets hit very hard.

now really is not the time to go anywhere near a training school!!!

and shame on the big schools for still peddling lies.

[Alex Whittingham]

Shame indeed, but it is easy to catastrophise these failures. The airline market has been so good for so long that there are a number of highly leveraged and struggling airlines around that would not have survived in a harsher market. A correction like this, or 9/11, or 2008 is like the lions taking out the Wildebeest from the edges of the herd. Considering Norwegian and VA, for instance, they are both competing to an extent in the same market, and both were struggling in the best market for years. Likely at least one will go to the wall but the survivor will pick up the spare business when life returns to normal, hire extra crews etc. The bigger question is what 'normal' will be like in the extended period post-lockdown when it is v likely there will still be travel restrictions in place for how long? 9 months? a year?. Logan and Flybe are different cases, the government could take the position that supporting them is a duty to maintain regional connectivity in a post-lockdown market that may not naturally give them a working business case. It's a 'wait and see'. IMHO the MPL shiny school model is seriously fractured, but people forget over time...

[CurlyB]

Is there ever a good time to start training? Probably when others aren't. Sure, you could wait until the industry has recovered but then you'll be in the same position as everyone else. Or you could go for it now and spend a fortune keeping current only to be passed over because you qualified too long ago.
If someone has the money and the dream, then my advice would be to go for it 80%. By that I mean get a PPL, do some hour building, take the ATPL exams, get an IRR, CBIR and CPL - but do it all single engine.

​​​​Then stop.

You've just spent £30k to get within a month of the finish line, with all hoops jumped through. No need to worry about ATPLs expiring (for at least 7 years!) Nothing to keep current - just let everything lapse until you're ready for the last step - because you've only got 10 hours of MEP training and an MCC/JOC course left to do. When the time is right, you're a fATPL with a one month lead time. And when you write your CV the important bits (The MEIR and MCC/JOC) will be brand new.
Great advice, thanks

[P40Warhawk]

virgin oz now in administration
virgin Atlantic on shaky ground
Logan needs government support
cityjet Ireland administrators called in



In Germany:
Today sadly bankrupt Luftfahrtgesellschaft Walter. About 120 Dash8 Q400 Pilots. Mother company WDL is also on shaky ground as Eurowings terminated Wetlease contract with LGW with the result LGW going bankrupt.

Another one which might fall soon is Condor as LOT was to take over Condor, but as LOT is having hard time as well the merger with Condor is cancelled.

Long message short, do NOT start any training. If you have finished already and thinking of doing TR, DONT do it. Dont waste any money on Aviation. Aviation is completely dead. Study for smt useful and maybe later do modular training without having any debt after the training.

[UAV689]

Shame indeed, but it is easy to catastrophise these failures. The airline market has been so good for so long that there are a number of highly leveraged and struggling airlines around that would not have survived in a harsher market. A correction like this, or 9/11, or 2008 is like the lions taking out the Wildebeest from the edges of the herd. Considering Norwegian and VA, for instance, they are both competing to an extent in the same market, and both were struggling in the best market for years. Likely at least one will go to the wall but the survivor will pick up the spare business when life returns to normal, hire extra crews etc. The bigger question is what 'normal' will be like in the extended period post-lockdown when it is v likely there will still be travel restrictions in place for how long? 9 months? a year?. Logan and Flybe are different cases, the government could take the position that supporting them is a duty to maintain regional connectivity in a post-lockdown market that may not naturally give them a working business case. It's a 'wait and see'. IMHO the MPL shiny school model is seriously fractured, but people forget over time...

This is a millions miles from 08 or 9/11. Both those times airlines still flew! Airlines here are not flying for months! When they do fly again, they are in effect having 3 winters in a row of buisness at best. At worst, 3 winters worth of traffic coupled with awful recession.

nas and vs are only competitors for about 30 of nas fleet. They will dump 120 airframes worth of 737 drivers on the market if it goes bust in its entirety. Probably 1200+ pilots. Where are they going to go? If they all go to ryr, that is 2 years of zero recruitment required at ryr for cadets.

We are going into a huge whammy of changes in customer behaviour far worse than 9/11 or 08 ever was.

Buisness are shrinking in terms of staff size and turnover, buisness traffic will take years to recover.
Companies have been forced to embrace remote working, they will now know its possible and works perfectly well, and less travel is needed in the future.
Many customers will be unwilling to travel, they do not want to queue at supermarkets,they will not want to sit in a tube, thats if they can afford it in the first place with the fact potentially 2m will lose their jobs according to the OBR.

Then we could also end up with this crazy idea of removing seats on aircraft for social distancing, driving up ticket fares, putting off more from flying.

You are absolutely correct in saying it is easy to turn this into a catastrophe. I think catastrophe is not a strong enough word for what is about to happen.

I cannot see the legacies needing to run a cadet course now for 10 years. Ezy are deferring orders, wizz laying off, ryr boeing fleet has not grown for 2 years now, lufty predicting years to recover with a permanent fleet reduction. The list is endless.

Stay away from training unless you have won the lottery!

[RoyHudd]

Alex W is a top-drawer trainer. Credit and respect.

As regards airline jobs, just forget them. The big number of experienced and type-rated pilots on the market means there are no jobs for new folk for many years. Nobody will want you, however poor the pay. There will be so many who are desperate for jobs, all of whom have plenty of experience.

[parkfell]

Alex W is a top-drawer trainer. Credit and respect.

As regards airline jobs, just forget them. The big number of experienced and type-rated pilots on the market means there are no jobs for new folk for many years. Nobody will want you, however poor the pay. There will be so many who are desperate for jobs, all of whom have plenty of experience.

When ‘eventually’ the market improves, opportunities on turbo props may well be the first jobs openings for novice *junior birdmen*.

Post 9/11, it took 18 months for the first Loganair Saab 340 FO to move to the big silver birds. And of course with over 1000+ hours on Saab, her transition to jet operations was straightforward, with increased airmanship & situational awareness. Loganair is one of the best airlines, if not the best, for a novice to start their apprenticeship.

The availability of mass vaccinations will be a critical catalyst in returning towards normality.
Prof Sarah Gilbert’s Oxford vaccine trials start today.

To paraphrase (modified) Captain Oates:

“ I am going out, and I might be sometime”

THE PHRASE “Junior Birdmen” is a generic phrase not identifying any gender, or non binary orientation.

[portsharbourflyer]

18 months seems quite quick for that era. I would say most instructors and turboprop pilots were stuck for nearly the best part of 5 years before moving on (if at all) in that post 9/11 era between 2000 to 2014 (slight recruitment peak around 2007).

However what everyone is overlooking is the return of the pay to fly schemes, Eagle-jet adverts which have disappeared during the recruitment boom have now reappeared with a resurgence on latestpilotjobs. While I disagree with pay to fly, the fact remains the low hour qualifiers which can afford to do it probably will. In the last down turn many low costs ran pay to fly schemes (Easyjet via Johnathan Kurds company, Wizzair via Storm Aviation), which invariably halted the progress of experienced turbo-prop pilots.

[UAV689]

Ba to shed 12,000, with rumours this morning of 800 pilots.

ryr delayed the max til 2021

there will be no jobs for years

[squidie]

Definitely no display of respect here to people both suffering job losses and those embarking on pilot training right now. Not that I’m saying peoples opinions are wrong or inconceivable but quite knee jerk at best.

Absolutely the industry is going to take one of the biggest hits in the commercial industry life line, if not the worst in the last twenty years. But quote "5/10" years of no growth must be a random guess right?! Is there anyone around that actually was ATP during both the 9/11 and 2008 crisis and knows the actual figures of recovery when it comes to time?

Modular routes have their benefits; more time to study and better control financially and that’s my opinion because that’s what I did. I didn’t do any integrated training and unlikely won’t if it comes to it.

I am still seeing youngsters embarking to this day on new integrated courses with all the risks that come with a global pandemic and heavily industrial shutdown…

My opinion; wait until later this year or next to figure how the industry has responded to the crisis. I also see very little (if any growth) in the short term but have no thoughts on it never recovering because that’s more unlikely then anything. There is yet to be more airline and job losses because we’re all still in the chip pan right now.

EDIT: IAG (BA) response today regarding their plans and outlook: "Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years, necessitating Group-wide restructuring measures"

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/IAG/14520454.html

[polax52]

Definitely no display of respect here to people both suffering job losses and those embarking on pilot training right now. Not that I’m saying peoples opinions are wrong or inconceivable but quite knee jerk at best.

Absolutely the industry is going to take one of the biggest hits in the commercial industry life line, if not the worst in the last twenty years. But quote "5/10" years of no growth must be a random guess right?! Is there anyone around that actually was ATP during both the 9/11 and 2008 crisis and knows the actual figures of recovery when it comes to time?

Modular routes have their benefits; more time to study and better control financially and that’s my opinion because that’s what I did. I didn’t do any integrated training and unlikely won’t if it comes to it.

I am still seeing youngsters embarking to this day on new integrated courses with all the risks that come with a global pandemic and heavily industrial shutdown…

My opinion; wait until later this year or next to figure how the industry has responded to the crisis. I also see very little (if any growth) in the short term but have no thoughts on it never recovering because that’s more unlikely then anything. There is yet to be more airline and job losses because we’re all still in the chip pan right now.

EDIT: IAG (BA) response today regarding their plans and outlook: "Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years, necessitating Group-wide restructuring measures"

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/IAG/14520454.html

I was around during the Pilot glut of the early 90's caused by a number of factors; house price crash, UK dropping out of the ERM, bankruptcy of Dan Air and Air Europe... That glut lasted about 6 years from 1990 to 1996.
Then I was also around for the aftermath of 9/11. That was a relatively short lived downturn. It was early days for the low costs and they were growing fast. I think full recovery occured by 2003.
Then I was made redundant towards the end of the financial crisis, June 2009. There was a glut of Pilots then. My colleagues started to get jobs by the end of 2010. Full recovery by 2011. However a lot of the recovery was to do with an extremely rapidly expanding China at that time.
My forecast for the current downturn depends largely on whether it's scaled up testing or a vaccine which is required to turn the tide. Assuming that it's a vaccine:
- We'll get domestic and some regional flights by Summer 2020 when lockdown finishes
- They say a Vaccine in 18 months. That would mean initiation of worldwide flights by Autumn 2021
- Peak summer 2022. I would expect worldwide flights to be back at 50% 2019 levels
- Then due to limitations on training within the industry, expansion would occur at about 20% per year.
That would have us back to 2019 levels in 2025. This could be a little quicker, maybe 2024, if testing works well.

Let me just say though, this current situation is entirely unprecedented. No look at history will decipher the outcome.

[squidie]

Obviously some of your factors take into account that the economic way of life resumes to the same activities before, I.e normal business travel and social travel. That is to be the main contributing factor over time.

[polax52]

In my opinion that will happen. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, post vaccine, you'll have an abundance of cheap aircraft, cheap crew, and cheap fuel (entrepreneurs dream). People, especially young people have not stopped wanting to travel. Cargo still needs to be moved. Business still needs to be done. This is just a reset of the industry, maybe one that needed to happen. It will take time though, we're talking about 2019 levels in 2025, that could be a little optimistic but thereabouts.

[Aviator172s]

Hi everybody,

Firstly, just introducing myself cause I just registered in this forum. I am a recent PPL holder, 32 years old, and as most of us here, always dreamt of being a professional pilot.

I work in a very different field, and was just about to start ATPL theory (after a well thought and not easy decision), combining my now full time job to what it would have become a part time job, when covid suddenly exploded. By the time being, I have postponed this important step and my question is, am I now left with no future at all for achieving my goal/dream?

Many thanks in advance.

[Northern Monkey]

The simple and brutal answer is probably yes.

There will be no recruitment in to airlines for the foreseeable future. Huge numbers of experienced pilots will be seeking jobs when eventually recruitment does restart. No one knows exactly how this is going to play out, and while some of the worst predictions being written on PPRuNE are likely too pessimistic, it would be fair to suggest your chances of getting a flying job as a newly qualified pilot with no experience are, in the next 5 years, close to zero.

After that, who knows? But the question you should be asking yourself is are you prepared to sit around for years and years foregoing other career opportunities in the meantime. The sensible answer to that question should be no. But I appreciate how depressing it must be to hear that. We were all once in your shoes, desperately looking for a way in to the industry. Many of us may well be again.

Good Luck.

[Pearly White]

There will be no jobs for ANY pilots, let alone cadets, for the next decade at least. It is beyond belief that people are still even considering training now.

Conservatively, there will shortly be 3-4000 unemployed pilots on the market in the UK alone once the inevitable redundancies kick in. The majority will never get a flying job ever again.
Here's a job, right now: 747-400 Captain - Freight (https://www.cae.com/civil-aviation/aviation-jobs/find-a-job/asl-belgium-b747-captain-22247) and there's about 24 more on CAE's website - so some organisations ARE looking for pilots, I imagine all of them are box-shifters due to the huge increase in cargo volumes.

You're welcome.

[skyblue12]

Right now is a tough time to find a normal job let alone a job within aviation.

My advice for anyone who is somewhere in the training pipeline or waiting to start would be to get a job in a different sector. Perhaps look at further education if you can afford it, but stay very clear of aviation for at least 18 months to 2 years. Then reassess the options. Everything is still too unknown to make any credible decisions. If a career in aviation is what you want then waiting a couple of years will make no discernible difference 20 years down the line.

[felixflyer]

Sorry but you would have to be insane to be thinking of commercial pilot training now. What is coming is probably the worst downturn in commercial aviation we have ever seen. This will be a perfect storm for the airlines. 9/11 was an unwillingness to travel. 2008 was an economic crash that meant people couldn't afford to. What we will see next will be both on a bigger scale. At the moment we are seeing the effects of restrictions in travel. Next will be the recession and a drying up of money and credit.

Many businesses are being forced to resort to remote working and video conferencing where they would have previously been sending people in person. Once they have these systems in place and see the cost benefits they won't go back to paying for business class seats.
Airlines which have their main assets listed as slots at major airports like LHR see the value of these slashed as traffic decreases and these airlines will become vitually worthless.
Villas and apartments in places like Spain will be flogged off cheap or repossessed. Holiday resorts will go bust due to lack of visitors over this summer and won't survive winter to be back next year. People will be unwilling to book a holiday abroad and those that can afford a holiday will start booking domestic holidays instead by car.
Airports themselves will be going bust left right and centre and we will see the closure of some regionals.

Then we have the training industry. Now more than ever DO NOT PAY FOR ANYTHING UP FRONT!
Banks will tighten lending or stop altogether.No bank in their right mind will lend for flight training.
The parents house that would have been used as security will plummet in value and make lending against it impossible. Those that have done this over the last few years could see a move into negative equity.
Parents stock related pensions will also be heading south.
All recruitment will stop except those airlines that see the chance to run crappy pay to fly schemes to help keep themselves in business. With no credit available only those with ready funds will apply and get rinsed before being spat out the other end.
Any pilots recruited over the last few years will likely be out of work and looking. Competition for the very few jobs there are with be insane and if you have 250 hours with a fresh CPL/IR then you won't even get a reply. All airline tie-ups with the big schools will be gone apart from some cash grab pay to fly schemes aimed more at paying the schools/airlines bills than training pilots.
Instructors will be working for free or min wage to keep their hand in.

I would expect some big name flight schools to go to the wall in very short order. Any cash paid up front will vanish.

If you want to fly then best thing to do would be to get a cheap PPL from a small club only paying as you go and wait for all the cheap shares and aircraft to come up for sale. People will be desperate for you to take it off them as they cannot afford to have it even sitting on the ground let alone fly. Pick one up cheap and enjoy your flying. Just ring the destination airfield before you set off to check they haven't gone bust.

If you want to make money from aviation then take the cash you were going to use for flight training and short any business associated with commercial flying.

This all sounds very pessimistic but that is the way we are headed IMHO. I really do pity the people who are lumbered with large loans from flight training over the last few years.

[Chief Willy]

I hate to say it, but if you wanted to become a pilot and are now around the age you would start training, I think you might have missed the boat. There will not be any recruiting for many many years. Mckinsey & Co predict airline travel not returning to pre-Covid levels until 2023, if at all. All airlines are looking at significant redundancies. Unlike 9/11 or 2008 there are no other growing airlines around the world for pilots to go to.

This is probably a good thing for you if you haven't started training yet, as you wont waste any money training on a career that just doesn’t have the legs to sustain a full career for your age.

After COVID is passed we’ll have another challenge to tackle, climate change. The failure of the industry to properly address the carbon issue means we are seen as the bad boys, which means less public support and a perhaps a lowering of demand over the next decade. Then for pilots in 20+ year’s time we’ll have to deal with increased autonomy of the role. Cruise relief pilots etc could be a thing of the past.

The job, whilst enjoyable at times is not what you picture it to be whilst you are a wanabee. You have to put up with a load of cr@p and the
pay and conditions are constantly going downhill. The novelty of flying a plane wears off very quickly and then it becomes more routine. You are not soaring around the sky like a bird,
more just following rules and procedures.

I’ve enjoyed the lifestyle aspects of job up until now. Being in a collapsing industry is no fun though. By all means do some flying for fun, get a PPL. But use this time to skill-up in something else completely, walk away from commercial aviation. For god’s sake do not start paying money to train as a pilot today!

[Bridgestone17]

I concur whole heartedly

[Aviator172s]

Thanks a lot for all your responses. Main conclusions I see is that you consider I am too old for starting a career in aviation, but I'd rather think is Covid situation what triggers this statement, since two months ago I frankly did not consider age fact as a major impediment (I know people who started older than me and reached an airliner position, not very good conditions at the beginning, but still goal/dream fulfilled)
Probably best thing to do now in mi case is keep on my current job, enjoy the PPL I recently obtained, fly for pleasure and sum hours up to the timebuilding, then revalutate in 12-18 months time when situation is clearer than now. Uncertainty is a killer, specially in aviation industry in my opinion. But honestly, I do not want to assume I have any option at all, since is my professional dream from many years, and my decided goal, including a 180º career-change, since a couple of years ago.

Best

[covec]

Very sad to give up a dream but at least I have an FI job courtesy MOD.

Loganair’s issues (had an assessment due) followed by Monarch, TC, Flybe & the aviation mayhem caused by CV-19 has done for that.

The fellow modular students with me during my MEIR have gone back offshore or back to airport ground ops. for “couple of years”.

BA’s announcement today re 12000 staff redundancies not good either.

[UAV689]

neither. But if a gun was to my head modular and drag it out over 5 years.

wizz air 1000 laid off
ba 800-1200 (tel:800-1200)
ryanair started laying off buzz crews and delayed max until next year.
flybe pilots out of work
easy defering aircraft orders
sas laying off half their staff
norwegian not to fly until next year, with at least 50 less aircraft if they fly again
icelandic air laying off staff
lufty shrinking
af/klm wont hire now for another 5 years minimum

Just where is there going to be a job in europe over the next couple of years with all this experience looking for work.

It is equally as bad elsewhere in the world.

[squidie]

What would be best to start just now? Integrated or Moduar?Modular hands down. You can control the money you put into it and put as much or little studies as you like and also work along the side if you require. There is very little upfront costs to things as well. Unlike integrated then you have to put money upfront in large quantities but obviously the upside is you’re getting a course delivered to you but do know that right now that’s a very big risk.

But train only if you must...

[EatSleepFlyRepeat]

Given the current circumstances I would go modular. It will take a good 12-18 months for get through the theory so you can see what the market is doing and pace your training accordingly. If you can afford to do the flying then treat it as a fun hobby which at the same time will develop a whole number of persona skills and your character. It’s not easy but I did it alongside a full time job and raising a family and still enjoyed it.

Clearly the outlook is not exactly great and while there will be losers there will be some opportunities and therefore some winners. I’m sure some airlines will get rid of some ‘dead wood’, other pilots will retire, lose medicals etc. Also new cadets will probably be cheaper to hire than experiences pilots so I live in hope.

Regarding age, I was not that long ago in a RYR assessment with a chap in his early 40’s with no flying background and I'm not far off that age albeit some FI experience. Suffice to say we got straight in and all successful candidates have been recently notified that our employment offer still stands although TR’s delayed. Of course I am remaining cautious and struggling to see it happening but I remain hopeful. Fortunately I have a decent job to pay the bills, so my final piece would be to seriously consider a back up plan and perhaps put the same energy into that than any flying training.

I would also take most comments on here with a pinch of salt, and perhaps mine also, but we have to hope and keep our dreams alive!

[Andre Meyer]

It is never a good time to become a Pilot neither is it ever a bad time to become a Pilot. It is, however, important to become a Pilot.

[PPRuNeUser0185]

https://t.co/EmCKXHE9Cs

An interesting article; obviously no one knows how it’ll pan out, but this gives some options to consider in how they will get back to some form of normality.

[Sholayo]

On the contrary to many pessimists here.
If you have money and are below 30 - just go slowly. In couple of years from now most likely we'll be in the same place we were 6 months ago. If not - you'll at least keep memories of flight training and hours building. Pessimist view of 'climate change BS' killing aviation would mean the world would be so different that money you spend on the training will be worthless in 5 years from now.
Assuming aviation will not come back to where it was means also that too many other things will not be back too. You may learn sewing. Tailors will be in high demand with no cheap supplies from China. Maybe shoemaking or carpentry? Because in recession IT will not pay much and being an GP/MD will be too dangerous.
Is that the world we expect to see?
C'mon - be reasonable. There IS a scenario where in 3-4 years from now there will be again demand for pilots and pipeline of those furloughed now will dry up. Now some will be too old, some will realize that anything else than be a pilot is better (as far as i can guess reading PPRUNE), some will lose their currency and with no money to renew you will be able to beat them in the recruitment battle ;)

[DAVPILOT2]

I too have finally "grown up" and started my PPL training, currently powering through the ground exams despite the the circumstances in the industry. I told myself just before the crises emerged, I will be a first officer in 10 years. quite a modest goal, but a more difficult one now!

Either way, we do it for the love of it, and flying a Cessna 172 will always put a smile on my face regardless!

[flyingkeyboard]

I too have finally "grown up" and started my PPL training, currently powering through the ground exams despite the the circumstances in the industry. I told myself just before the crises emerged, I will be a first officer in 10 years. quite a modest goal, but a more difficult one now!

Either way, we do it for the love of it, and flying a Cessna 172 will always put a smile on my face regardless!

Same here, I’m 34 and most of the way through the PPL course. Slim chance I’ll ever get a job in aviation, but I’m doing it for the love of flying primarily. Also helps that I have an established career so taking it slowly can’t do any harm. Decision point for me will be in 3-4 years - do I go for the CPL or not.

[giggitygiggity]

Just where is there going to be a job in europe over the next couple of years with all this experience looking for work.

You answered your question, not with the current airlines/brands you recognise.

There will be thousands, probably tens of thousands of flying jobs over the next 5 years, but none, bar the odd cargo one for the next 2. An incomprehensible number of airlines will go bust, maybe not today, but soon. They’ll come out of this so riddled with debt; this will open up many many opportunities new solvent airlines to form. They’ll be able to buy slots, planes and crew very very cheap, on far worse terms than those employed now are on. There will be thousands of pilots looking for work around Europe and these new airlines will need to take on many experienced guys. To a guy that was earning 200k was a captain at BA made redundant from the 747, after a year on job seekers he’ll be chomping at the bit to be paid 40 or 50k a year to be a first officer at Covid-air (or whatever the new companies are going to be called). There will be plenty of jobs by 2025 for experienced guys, but these airlines will need to create a bit of an experience base before they can start recruiting low houred pilots or cadets.

My airline (easyJet) will certainly be around in a years time, but three or five years time? I’m not sure I fancy those odds. We’ll have so much debt in order to survive this that any profit we make will just be repaying the debt. That’s whilst the new debt free competition can undercut us on price as they’ve bought a repossessed Airbus for 10m instead of the 50m we’ve paying for ours. Their flight deck will cost 100k a year as opposed to the 250k a year a crew at easyJet costs. No amount of government loaning is going to solve our/the upcoming debt crisis. We’re built to fly 100m passengers this year, anything less than perhaps 75m will undoubtably result in a massive loss. If we carry 50m between now and the end of 2021, it will frankly be a miracle, although I imagine the total might disturbingly be lower than that. Time will of course tell, but precise figures won’t solve the debt crisis.

Would anybody be able to hazard a guess as to what a used A380 might be going for today? The list price was $400m. I’d be very surprised if anyone would be willing to pay more than $60-100m today. There are going to be massive winners out of this, but the brands you recognise I’m afraid, aren’t going to be the champions.

Many threads on here are asking experienced pilots what they’d do after having to end their aviation careers early. My advice would be to write a business plan for the launch of an entirely new low cost airline. There will be an absolute fortune to be made, but not in the past.

[guy_incognito]

I think that the post above addresses one of the most salient points: yes, there will probably be jobs available in the future. However, while training costs will remain absurdly expensive, the terms and conditions offered by airlines will be absolutely appalling.

First officer contracts will most likely be at the zero hour, minimum wage level with no additional benefits, and captains will be earning £60k. Why anyone would want to take on mortgage levels of debt to train for that is beyond me.

[CAT3C AUTOLAND]

I too have finally "grown up" and started my PPL training, currently powering through the ground exams despite the the circumstances in the industry. I told myself just before the crises emerged, I will be a first officer in 10 years. quite a modest goal, but a more difficult one now!

Either way, we do it for the love of it, and flying a Cessna 172 will always put a smile on my face regardless!

Tough times ahead I am sure, however DAVPILOT2 I admire your determination. In 1995 I did my PPL through the modular route, (working, studying and saving at the same time), 12 years later joined a major UK airline. Sadly I had to retire early though ill health, however spent 12 wonderful years in the airlines, thoroughly enjoyed the job, and ended my career as a Captain on the A320, and now training new aspiring pilots to fly jets which is equally enjoyable!

Fair play to you, I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

All the best.

[parkfell]

. .............However, while training costs will remain absurdly expensive, the terms and conditions offered by airlines will be absolutely appalling.

First officer contracts will most likely be at the zero hour, minimum wage level with no additional benefits, and captains will be earning £60k. Why anyone would want to take on mortgage levels of debt to train for that is beyond me.
SIMPLE ECONOMICS

I suspect that when the training machine starts up again, the established ATOs will recognise that they will have to be ‘creative’ to get new customers through the door, as demand for new pilots will be somewhat minimal.
Survival of the fittest will undoubtedly play its part, and their pricing will be governed entirely by the economic principle of supply & demand.

What the market will bear.

Until the point is reached where airlines are crying out for junior birdmen, airline T&Cs are unlikely to improve, and training costs will not increase significantly.

As has been alluded to, a lot of airlines will either go to the wall, as will ATO training organisations. For the stronger ones, metamorphosis may well occur.
Phoenix from the ashes, aided by State Intervention in a number of cases for the AOC holders.

The picture painted above, in relation to the airlines, is one of excessive supply with not a lot of demand; a situation not dissimilar to the present price of crude oil.

As to when a significant recovery will occur ~ 3 to 5 years. Normal service fully resumed by 7 years.

Let us hope Prof Sarah Gilbert’s team at Oxford produces a vaccine in the not to distant future.

[felixflyer]

Because what they are sold is a dream, a fantasy. Have a look at all the marketing from the big schools and its all images of pilots walking through the terminal in uniform. This is what a large number of wannabes want. They will say it's all about the flying and they just love to fly but if that was the case why are so many already in their 30's with 50k available for pilot training but not even a PPL? Any marketer knows you sell the dream not the reality.

It was always going to be the case that the job of pilot eventually lost the glamour and took on the same kind of image as a train or bus driver. We probably had another decade or so of people (and banks) willing to pay huge amounts to train for something that might pay them back in 10 years. What we will see now however will be a quick decline in T&C's and paying to train will just not be viable. Pilots on old contracts will be given an option to leave or sign a new one, the legacy carriers will offload a ton of experienced crew and the loco's will be rubbing their hands at how cheap they can pick them up.

The training industry will be decimated. No money or lending and parents in negative equity will be the end of that. We might see a couple of large schools remain as sponsored training comes back but it will be very, very compettive and require the pilot to remain with the sponsoring airline for a very long time on very low income to pay for it.

As for new airlines starting up, possibly but you wouldn't want to work for them. It's more likely that existing ones downgrade even further. BA will be more like Ryanair and those A380's will become cargo haulers. We are seeing a big push towards businesses embracing technologies that allow remote working. The mindset has been forced to change and many are now getting rid of the big office already as they realise the savings to be made. Why use their electric, water, rent when the worker can use their own? The business travel sector will never come back to what it was.

People will still fly though but it will mostly be the leisure travellers and they all want to pay less for their flights than they do for their airport parking.

There will however be plenty of other opportunities to make money if your smart enough. There will also be a large amount of capable light aircraft going very cheap. If you really do really want to fly then make your money outside of Aviation, get qualified and fly yourself around IFR on your own time. The only money that will be made in aviation over the next decade is by those shorting the market.

[Chris the Robot]

The training industry will be decimated. No money or lending and parents in negative equity will be the end of that. We might see a couple of large schools remain as sponsored training comes back but it will be very, very compettive and require the pilot to remain with the sponsoring airline for a very long time on very low income to pay for it.

I do wonder if there will be enough parents and career changers out there who can fund the cost of an integrated course without a loan to enable the airlines to deal with any future expansion? I suppose quite a lot of it depends on whether a lot of the experienced pilots who are made redundant wish to resume a flying career post-virus.

If the training industry contracts massively and self-funding becomes a thing of the past, then BALPA and the various other unions need to absolutely prevent the self-funding of airline training ever being a thing in the future. A lot of pilots have suffered T&Cs being reduced over the years, unfortunately that's what an oversupply of cheap freshly-trained pilots looking for their first job leads to.

[wiggy]

felix

Have a look at all the marketing from the big schools and its all images of pilots walking through the terminal in uniform. This is what a large number of wannabes want. They will say it's all about the flying and they just love to fly but if that was the case why are so many already in their 30's with 50k available for pilot training but not even a PPL?

Interesting observation...

Chris

BALPA and the various other unions need to absolutely prevent the self-funding of airline training ever being a thing in the future.

..and how do you suggest they do this?

[TRENT210]

felix

..and how do you suggest they do this?

it seems to work quite well in the rail industry

[wiggy]

it seems to work quite well in the rail industry

Please explain further.

Whenever this issue has been raised before the counter argument raised is that to try and stop a private individual signing a contract with an private ATO would amount to restraint of trade (or something along those lines).

[Chris the Robot]

If I'm not wrong, the union at SAS managed to curtail the airline's plans to have a subsidiary in Ireland, so it can be done. I believe TREs/TRIs/LTEs can revert back to normal flying duties if they wish to do so? If they refused to sign off people who had gone down the P2F, or the self-funded with 200 hours career routes, what would an airline do? Likewise, there's a lot of action short of a walkout which pilots could take to make their displeasure at the situation clear, overtime bans, instructor bans, work-to-rule to name a few. I appreciate that the industry is it dire straits and industrial action is probably the last thought on most pilots' minds, however if/when the industry begins to recover, you will need to take a firm stance on protecting whatever T&Cs you have left.

Since the railway has been mentioned, it's very rare on the mainline in Britain that a strike is actually called, usually an overtime ban does the trick. If people tried to buy their way into a train cab, then I think the instructors would refuse to teach them. If there were any reprisals, then all the instructors would simply hand their instructor tickets back and revert to normal driving duties, so there would be no trainees at all, paid or unpaid.

Edited to add:
If this seems a bit too militant, then BALPA et al should lobby for a test similar to the DLR in Germany to be introduced as a pre-requisite to airline employment or even to hold an ATPL. if there was a minimal pass percentage (single digits if possible) and a very limited number of attempts allowed, it would filter out so many people that supply/demand would be controllable. We have something like that on the railway, it's actually the law that you must pass it (it varies slightly from one country to another) to hold a train driving licence anywhere in the EU, about 10% who reach the tests actually pass them.

[TRENT210]

Please explain further.

Whenever this issue has been raised before the counter argument raised is that to try and stop a private individual signing a contract with an private ATO would amount to restraint of trade (or something along those lines).

My point is, and correct me if I’m wrong, can you train to be a train driver without being trained by the company that’s employing you ?

Like is there a school where I can hand over a pile of cash to get a train driving qualification and then go out, CV & Licence in hand, to all the railway operators and look for a job?

Don't get me wrong I don’t agree with banning self funding because the chances are I wouldn’t be employed As a pilot right now. I’ve never had the interview skills and academic mind to beat potentially thousands of applicants for airline sponsorships. All I had was the work ethic and determination to do it on my own.

[portsharbourflyer]

Well the industry could follow the FAA way and bring in an hours requirement.

The pre-JAA CAA self improver route required 700 hours to hold a CPL (the BCPL was obtained at 150 hours and that was used for Aerial work or Instructing to get the hours), that originally was the key advantage of the Integrated course it allowed you to hold a full CPL at 200 hours without needing to obtain 700 hours. However in the CAA days the Integrated course (or whatever it was known as in those days, CAP509 course I believe, sightly before my time) was mainly limited to sponsored Airline students. So the UK had an hours requirement in the past so why not bring that back.


The FAA have the 1500 hour rule in place. While I will agree there may not be much relevance of GA flying to Airline flying, the FAA situation has shown the 1500 hour rule led to an artificial shortage, but it did nearly double First Officer salaries at Regional Airlines.

The other advantage of having an hours limit is it removes the wannabe Airline Pilot who doesn't really have a true passion for flying; I am certain there are a small number who are only interested in flying airliners who will soon be put of by the idea of two years or so of instructing or glider towing.

[Chris the Robot]

That would work equally well I think so long as the "new CAP509" had an "airline pays" requirement, or like BOAC at Hamble, included an extended amount of time in a real aircraft to the extent that no reasonable trainee would be able to afford it themselves.

I think one of the most important things is to normalise whatever T&Cs improve so they become an expectation rather than a rarity. One of the reasons I suspect training courses were sponsored in the past is that most airlines had one, therefore it was much easier for the board to justify to shareholders, it was simply an accepted cost of doing business. So, when one or two airlines began to recruit lots of cadets who had paid their own way, the shareholders of the other airlines could better put senior management under pressure to also expect cadets to pay. I have heard some people say that BALPA was very BA-focused to the extent that it didn't react in the other airlines until it was too late, though I don't know first-hand is this is true. In the US, the massively higher salaries after the 1500 hour rule presumably became accepted as the going rate, though I guess this may change once the recovery starts.

I know this is all probably a long way off but if the pilots do ever see an improvement in T&Cs, they need to make sure to hold on to them.

[UAV689]

Having seen people pay huge training sums to be a glamourous named “white tail” there will still be a long queue of gullible children and parents getting mugged off by the big ato’s.

nice glossy brochure saying wages are 100k a year, they will not know any different...

I bet the brochures are already getting reprinted now, saying its the best time to train now as in 18 months everyone will be crying out for crews.

These kids want that instagram picture of the cloud and raybans.

[tsvpilot]

Because what they are sold is a dream, a fantasy. Have a look at all the marketing from the big schools and its all images of pilots walking through the terminal in uniform. This is what a large number of wannabes want. They will say it's all about the flying and they just love to fly but if that was the case why are so many already in their 30's with 50k available for pilot training but not even a PPL? Any marketer knows you sell the dream not the reality..

Right, so how should the websites and ads for flight schools look like, just black text on a white background? Wouldn't you expect a medical school to feature a surgeon with fancy white jacket and gloves? And what should a person who undertakes +60k£ flight training want if not flying jets and walking through terminals wearing a fancy pilot uniform? You also gotta fancy flying to some degree to bare through an endless amount of touch & go. And to your last bit, because flying for fun is ridiculously expensive!

[felixflyer]

My point is that whilst the job is still seen as a prestigious career that image can be used to sell to those who want the status that comes with it rather than just being paid to fly. Once the T&C's are driven down to rock bottom levels and we start seeing min wage pilots then that image will cease to exist and with it the ability to sell £100,000 courses to get there.

It will then be left to those who just wish to be paid to fly and would do so no matter what.

Flying for fun is expensive which is why you need a well paying job or business to finance it. There will be opportunity in the coming years if you know where to look and it might be the case that this route is better than doing it as a career for many.

[wiggy]

And what should a person who undertakes +60k£ flight training want if not flying jets and walking through terminals wearing a fancy pilot uniform? !

That comment nicely makes the point felix and others have been making upthread...

[pug]

My point is that whilst the job is still seen as a prestigious career that image can be used to sell to those who want the status that comes with it rather than just being paid to fly. Once the T&C's are driven down to rock bottom levels and we start seeing min wage pilots then that image will cease to exist and with it the ability to sell £100,000 courses to get there.

It will then be left to those who just wish to be paid to fly and would do so no matter what.

Flying for fun is expensive which is why you need a well paying job or business to finance it. There will be opportunity in the coming years if you know where to look and it might be the case that this route is better than doing it as a career for many.

Whilst I know where you’re coming from, most of what you’ve said was also said 12 years ago, and prior to this current situation the market for new opportunities has been the best seen in many years. Obviously this is a game changer, for how long who knows? And it’s irritating to see the ‘pilot shortage’ mantra trotted out, but flying schools are businesses too and have to make a living somehow.

I think the onus is on the student to apply due dilligence, but it’s not necessarily a time to stop training altogether.

[tsvpilot]

That comment nicely makes the point felix and others have been making upthread...

And the point is, or better the problem is? There is something wrong about wanting to fly jets after undertaking training that qualifies you to fly jets?

[squidie]

Whilst I know where you’re coming from, most of what you’ve said was also said 12 years ago, and prior to this current situation the market for new opportunities has been the best seen in many years. Obviously this is a game changer, for how long who knows? And it’s irritating to see the ‘pilot shortage’ mantra trotted out, but flying schools are businesses too and have to make a living somehow.

I think the onus is on the student to apply due dilligence, but it’s not necessarily a time to stop training altogether.Over the next few years, if people have any financial sense, then integrated courses are going to be rare. Self-funded modular approaches after the next few years no doubt will pick up because that’s allays been the smartest route to a flying job.

[polax52]

Right, so how should the websites and ads for flight schools look like, just black text on a white background? Wouldn't you expect a medical school to feature a surgeon with fancy white jacket and gloves? And what should a person who undertakes +60k£ flight training want if not flying jets and walking through terminals wearing a fancy pilot uniform? You also gotta fancy flying to some degree to bare through an endless amount of touch & go. And to your last bit, because flying for fun is ridiculously expensive!

Maybe not but you need a big "buyer beware" notice very visibly on the brochure as historically more than 50% of the time a student completes training to face a glut of Pilots.

I understand that the MPL's are a bit different.

[pug]

Maybe not but you need a big "buyer beware" notice very visibly on the brochure as historically more than 50% of the time a student completes training to face a glut of Pilots.

I understand that the MPL's are a bit different.

Surely if anyone is to pursue a career in flying (or any other sector which requires significant financial investment), then the onus is on the prospective student to make that call?

Im not trying to defend the FTO’s, but I do wonder how many flight training graduates are out there now that did nothing but buy into the glossy brochures? I tend to think not many given the significant financial outlay. Perhaps I’m just naive?

[wiggy]

Surely if anyone is to pursue a career in flying (or any other sector which requires significant financial investment), then the onus is on the prospective student to make that call?

Im not trying to defend the FTO’s, but I do wonder how many flight training graduates are out there now that did nothing but buy into the glossy brochures? I tend to think not many given the significant financial outlay. Perhaps I’m just naive?

Not just the FTOs though was it?

Every six months or so somebody would be on here breathlessly linking to an article claiming the world would be short of 100,000, 500,000 or 1,000,000 pilots within the next...and it wasn't just those who were actively looking at sitting in the seat that got carried away - there's no doubt some parents saw funding their nearest and dearest as a financial investment and were looking for a return, rather than a way of facilitating their offspring get into a personally rewarding career.

[guy_incognito]

Well the industry could follow the FAA way and bring in an hours requirement.

The post-Colgan hours requirement in the States was a knee jerk reaction.

It is not a regulator's job to improve pilot Ts&Cs. As long as it was being done safely, the CAA couldn't give a toss if the two people at the front were getting paid nothing, or indeed paying to be there. There is no plausible safety case for a return to the BCPL days, therefore it will not happen.

[Alex Whittingham]

Confirmation bias is a powerful thing. A good sell, once made, is actually very difficult to unsell!

[LTCTerry]

There is a lot of good information here. I'll share a few thoughts.

Flying is expensive. Try to pick a reasonable way to manage the costs.

Join a glider club. You can learn to fly inexpensively. Become a glider instructor. You will gain knowledge and influence w/in the club. Find out what's required to be a tow pilot in the glider club. Get a PPL and pursue those requirements. If it helps, instruct in TMGs to get hours to be able to tow. Once you've established yourself you can fly as a tow pilot. EASA doesn't count glider flying 1:1, but being "tuggie" counts.

Flying is not cheap. But you can make it more affordable. Never borrow for training money you can't afford to pay back without the new job. Get a job and live well within your means. Fly gliders. Get a PPL. Research your options. Be a tow pilot. Or a skydive pilot. Work. Save money to pay as you go. Instruct. When you fly, practice to the highest standards you can - if +/- 100 feet is OK, work to stay +/- 50. Maintain high standards from the beginning.

You will read people say, "I've spent 100,000 Pounds, Euro, Dollars and have been looking for a job for three years." When I was a young Army officer an old retired Sergeant told me, "Plan your work, and work your plan." That advice has worked for me for the last 35 years! I saw a sign recently "A goal without a plan is just a dream." Make a plan. Make the goal into reality. Without being destitute at the end. Work through the next couple years. It will be OK.

Good luck!

[Airgus]

There is a lot of good information here. I'll share a few thoughts.

Flying is expensive. Try to pick a reasonable way to manage the costs.

Join a glider club. You can learn to fly inexpensively. Become a glider instructor. You will gain knowledge and influence w/in the club. Find out what's required to be a tow pilot in the glider club. Get a PPL and pursue those requirements. If it helps, instruct in TMGs to get hours to be able to tow. Once you've established yourself you can fly as a tow pilot. EASA doesn't count glider flying 1:1, but being "tuggie" counts.

Flying is not cheap. But you can make it more affordable. Never borrow for training money you can't afford to pay back without the new job. Get a job and live well within your means. Fly gliders. Get a PPL. Research your options. Be a tow pilot. Or a skydive pilot. Work. Save money to pay as you go. Instruct. When you fly, practice to the highest standards you can - if +/- 100 feet is OK, work to stay +/- 50. Maintain high standards from the beginning.

You will read people say, "I've spent 100,000 Pounds, Euro, Dollars and have been looking for a job for three years." When I was a young Army officer an old retired Sergeant told me, "Plan your work, and work your plan." That advice has worked for me for the last 35 years! I saw a sign recently "A goal without a plan is just a dream." Make a plan. Make the goal into reality. Without being destitute at the end. Work through the next couple years. It will be OK.

Good luck!

A great advice from LTCTerry.
You will glide through the crisis, by the time it is over, you will be meeting the requirements with low expenses and no debt.

[TRENT210]

I think people need to ask themselves why they want to become a Pilot in the first place?

Although it may sound stereotypical and there will be exceptions to what I’m about to say but...

From my current colleagues and pilots I met through training there is a marked difference in job satisfaction between the Integrated pilots and the modular pilots.

My modular trained colleagues seem to love aviation and the job whether they’ve been in it 2 years or 20 years.
They were the ones taking trial lessons at 15 and getting PPL’s at 17 or they’re ex mil or midlife crisis guys who went into flying at 35+

However a lot of integrated pilots I’ve met seem to become dissatisfied very quickly. Almost like they woke up one day, thought being a pilot is a cool job, ready a glossy brochure and asked their parents for £100k. 18 months later they’re waking up at 03:00, flying the magenta line to Alicante and bored out of their tree.
A few years down the line and despite what their Instagram shows it’s turned into “just a job” that pays well.

If you or your parents are loaded and you don’t mind laying out £100k at testing the waters To see if the job and the lifestyle suits you then by all means go for it. But if it’s going to financially set you back I’d have a long hard think why you want to fly in the first place. I’ll let you into a secret... nobody looks at you as you walk through the airport in your uniform.

I’ve been flying for a living for 2 years and I still get excited when my alarm goes off at 3am, I still get excited when crewing ring me at 6am to pull me in off standby, after 2 days off I can’t wait to fly again but I that’s because I’ve wanted to do this job since I was 5. I’ve worked office, customer service and restaurant jobs, 60 - 70 hours a week, to pay for this career.

If you just want a well paid job; work in IT, become a train driver because I guarantee it won’t cost you £100k to become one. You can fulfil your Instagram ego by learning to fly helicopters and dropping into the local pub on a Sunday afternoon.

[Modular Halil]

What would be best to start just now? Integrated or Moduar?

Don't mean to be rude, have a read about i don't kmow 5 posts up...

[Modular Halil]

I think people need to ask themselves why they want to become a Pilot in the first place?

Although it may sound stereotypical and there will be exceptions to what I’m about to say but...

From my current colleagues and pilots I met through training there is a marked difference in job satisfaction between the Integrated pilots and the modular pilots.

My modular trained colleagues seem to love aviation and the job whether they’ve been in it 2 years or 20 years.
They were the ones taking trial lessons at 15 and getting PPL’s at 17 or they’re ex mil or midlife crisis guys who went into flying at 35+

However a lot of integrated pilots I’ve met seem to become dissatisfied very quickly. Almost like they woke up one day, thought being a pilot is a cool job, ready a glossy brochure and asked their parents for £100k. 18 months later they’re waking up at 03:00, flying the magenta line to Alicante and bored out of their tree.
A few years down the line and despite what their Instagram shows it’s turned into “just a job” that pays well.

If you or your parents are loaded and you don’t mind laying out £100k at testing the waters To see if the job and the lifestyle suits you then by all means go for it. But if it’s going to financially set you back I’d have a long hard think why you want to fly in the first place. I’ll let you into a secret... nobody looks at you as you walk through the airport in your uniform.

I’ve been flying for a living for 2 years and I still get excited when my alarm goes off at 3am, I still get excited when crewing ring me at 6am to pull me in off standby, after 2 days off I can’t wait to fly again but I that’s because I’ve wanted to do this job since I was 5. I’ve worked office, customer service and restaurant jobs, 60 - 70 hours a week, to pay for this career.

If you just want a well paid job; work in IT, become a train driver because I guarantee it won’t cost you £100k to become one. You can fulfil your Instagram ego by learning to fly helicopters and dropping into the local pub on a Sunday afternoon.

I cant wait to wake up at 3am to get to the airport in 5 years time, as for everyone no matter your fuselage or weather you're integrated or modular let's hope we are all flying and training then this trauma is over.

[speedo777]

I would like to wish you luck and say enjoy your flying see you on the flight line one day

Oh and it is not the end of aviation full stop.
I totally agree with you. It's not the end of aviation.

[ced0802]

Just got result, passed my assessment with FTE Jerez, starting September integrated. Can’t wait. They’ve said there will be a ton of jobs waiting when I finish.
As they would say the contrary..

[Bridgestone17]

Just got result, passed my assessment with FTE Jerez, starting September integrated. Can’t wait. They’ve said there will be a ton of jobs waiting when I finish.

They would say that wouldn't they!
Like lambs to the slaughter. It is very irresponsible of them to give you false hope just because you want to be a Pilot. They simply want your money.
Consider the worldwide economic downturn - will people have spare money to go on holiday? There is possibly a major financial depression about to happen.
Consider public confidence in the travel industry - look at the way current customers are not being refunded for cancelled trips. Most will become reluctant to commit large sums of money for what could be a non-event.
Consider a suitable public immunisation programme - a vaccine hasn't even been developed yet. There will have to be a universal agreement on health requirements at point of entry and departure otherwise 2 weeks holiday PLUS 2 weeks quarantine will be unrealistic for most travellers.
There was a major shortage of Flying Instructors at most schools so will there be enough staff for them to carry out these courses?
Consider all those experienced unemployed Pilots chasing after too few jobs
Two years is too soon. Try 5, go Modular and save a fortune.........

[PilotLZ]

Just got result, passed my assessment with FTE Jerez, starting September integrated. Can’t wait. They’ve said there will be a ton of jobs waiting when I finish.
Of all examples of trolling I've seen on that forum that was well and by far the finest. Great irony - but, sadly, that's what any overexcited and underinformed candidate will hear if they ask the marketing department of any FTO that has one... As long as they have done their job, yours becomes entirely your own problem.

[squidie]

They would say that wouldn't they!
Like lambs to the slaughter. It is very irresponsible of them to give you false hope just because you want to be a Pilot. They simply want your money.
Consider the worldwide economic downturn - will people have spare money to go on holiday? There is possibly a major financial depression about to happen.
Consider public confidence in the travel industry - look at the way current customers are not being refunded for cancelled trips. Most will become reluctant to commit large sums of money for what could be a non-event.
Consider a suitable public immunisation programme - a vaccine hasn't even been developed yet. There will have to be a universal agreement on health requirements at point of entry and departure otherwise 2 weeks holiday PLUS 2 weeks quarantine will be unrealistic for most travellers.
There was a major shortage of Flying Instructors at most schools so will there be enough staff for them to carry out these courses?
Consider all those experienced unemployed Pilots chasing after too few jobs
Two years is too soon. Try 5, go Modular and save a fortune.........

Not the first time I’ve heard that recently, but only from integrated schools that will go under if they ARE honest to their students. Try ask this question to an FTO that offers only modular training? Or someone who has been working in the industry? I agree that businesses need to survive, but I also agree that they should be honest with their students and not lead them down the wrong path.

Any upfront costs into aviation training for the next several years is going to be very risky. If you have hundreds of thousands to potentially waste then yeah you go for it. Having just the right amount of money for an integrated course then I’d suggest save it for when the industry begins to recover because if you loose it now you’ll probably never get the chance again.

It’s not rocket science this, it’s all over the main stream media so there is very little digging to actually do. IAG, Ryanair, BALPA all saying its going to take several years to get back to the pre-covid19 demand. So why a school offering a massively expensive course would know any better. Beyond me.

[parkfell]

Just got result, passed my assessment with FTE Jerez, starting September integrated. Can’t wait. They’ve said there will be a ton of jobs waiting when I finish.

I think this person is a local Prestwick spotter of a certain vintage, who might have done his PPL in the USA a number of years ago. Search function will reveal postings in the Ryanair recruitment / simulator thread warning against training just now. See the Interview section. I have replied on that thread and captured his posting as a quote.

The posting has all the hallmarks of being a ‘wind up’ to get a reaction from those he likes to antagonise. Quite a few of them given the reaction.

Demonstrating a lack of maturity, as he likes to have a laugh at others misfortune. I believe the Germans have a word for those who like to see others suffer. SCHADENFREUDE

Probably best to give this individual a wide berth in future and disregard any future idiotic postings.

[squidie]

I think this person is a local Prestwick spotter of a certain vintage, who might have done his PPL in the USA a number of years ago. Search function will reveal postings in the Ryanair recruitment / simulator thread warning against training just now. See the Interview section. I have replied on that thread and captured his posting as a quote.

The posting has all the hallmarks of being a ‘wind up’ to get a reaction from those he likes to antagonise. Quite a few of them given the reaction.

Demonstrating a lack of maturity, as he likes to have a laugh at others misfortune. I believe the Germans have a word for those who like to see others suffer. SCHADENFREUDE

Probably best to give this individual a wide berth in future and disregard any future idiotic postings.I did suspect troll a tad, but at least my info is out there for others to take into account.

[pug]

Not just the FTOs though was it?

Every six months or so somebody would be on here breathlessly linking to an article claiming the world would be short of 100,000, 500,000 or 1,000,000 pilots within the next...and it wasn't just those who were actively looking at sitting in the seat that got carried away - there's no doubt some parents saw funding their nearest and dearest as a financial investment and were looking for a return, rather than a way of facilitating their offspring get into a personally rewarding career.

I fully take your point, and I think what Alex Whittingham said about confirmation bias is true - perhaps those articles being linked were the deal clincher? But in my experience seeing people coming through they all seemed to know the risks involved and were highly commercially aware. Perhaps some of the integrated students are different, I’ve not come across so many from that background to make a judgement.

I do have great sympathy for those at the end of their MPL training to find that their jobs are no longer there, or their mentored airline is no longer in existence! It can’t be denied that even the more ‘realistic’ members on this forum had been advocates of only training if tagged by an airline.

Hopefully in a couple of years things won’t be looking so bleak, where some airlines may struggle there may be new opportunities once confidence returns. I find it hard to believe that it won’t eventually improve.

[therapist]

Very sensible advise. Belt and Braces = back up plan.

[18greens]

Whilst COVID has given our government a chance to meet its co2 emissions targets I fear we will be back to messing up the planet before we know it.

Inevitably that will mean more cars, more planes and more pilots sooner than you think.

[tsvpilot]

Of all examples of trolling I've seen on that forum that was well and by far the finest. Great irony - but, sadly, that's what any overexcited and underinformed candidate will hear if they ask the marketing department of any FTO that has one... As long as they have done their job, yours becomes entirely your own problem.

Not sure who is more naive student falling for a glossy brochure or people calling FTOs out for making them. It would be rather poor marketing if instead of a glossy brochure they were sending out matte flyers informing their potential clients that flight training is an incredibly risky investment and there is no guarantee of a job. If I go to a realtor I don't expect them to advise against buying a house because it's better to rent. It's indeed a business and they are marketing their business most efficient way possible. By no means is it FTOs job to act as a career & financial adviser to ensure their potential client doesn't make a bad investment by buying their service.

[uncle dickie]

Not sure who is more naive student falling for a glossy brochure or people calling FTOs out for making them. It would be rather poor marketing if instead of a glossy brochure they were sending out matte flyers informing their potential clients that flight training is an incredibly risky investment and there is no guarantee of a job. If I go to a realtor I don't expect them to advise against buying a house because it's better to rent. It's indeed a business and they are marketing their business most efficient way possible. By no means is it FTOs job to act as a career & financial adviser to ensure their potential client doesn't make a bad investment by buying their service.

The ATO must be honest and trustworthy in all communications with prospective customers. This means that they make clear the limits of their knowledge and make reasonable checks to ensure the information given is accurate.
When advertising services they must ensure that the information published is factual and can be checked and does not exploit their vulnerability or lack of aviation knowledge.
They must ensure that any document is not false or misleading.
They must not deliberately leave out relevant information.

A honest business will always get customers as ‘word of mouth’ is the best form of advertising possible, as this website often demonstrates.

[tsvpilot]

The ATO must be honest and trustworthy in all communications with prospective customers. .

Is there any public demonstration of any ATO doing dishonest marketing? I checked the mentioned FTEjerez I could see them doing nothing wrong on their website. I don't think anyone is claiming to offer a guaranteed job. Saying "now it's a good time to start training" or "airliners will start hiring again" isn't more dishonest than saying the opposite.

[parkfell]

..........I don't think anyone is claiming to offer a guaranteed job. Saying "now it's a good time to start training" or "airliners will start hiring again" isn't more dishonest than saying the opposite.

Whilst you are quite correct that no ATO can ever guarantee employment for a ‘whitetail’ customer, you miss the point by cherry picking part of Uncle Dickies post.

You must take the whole post as best practice, as it is, in essence, an indivisible framework to adopt.

It is true that “airliners(sic) will start hiring again”. The question is when. Given the number of known ‘unknowns’ that generates a wide range of starting dates.

What would be a honest answer to give a potential customer? Honesty is what you sincerely believe to be true.

I would suggest the best anyone can do just now is an inspired guess, even with Ryanair announcing today that they intend to operate 1,000 flights by 1 July, subject to restrictions being lifted
[TIMES on line article today]

.......” a good time to start training”. I would opine that the answer may well be inextricable linked to the hiring question.

Whilst the Integrated training route is invariably the quickest way to qualify, the Modular route allows you to set you own pace as the present crisis unfolds.

[RedDragonFlyer]

.......” a good time to start training”. I would opine that the answer may well be inextricable linked to the hiring question.

Whilst the Integrated training route is invariably the quickest way to qualify, the Modular route allows you to set you own pace as the present crisis unfolds.

I think anyone reading this would be sensible to follow this advice.

Nobody knows when things will 'pick up' again in terms of hiring. We all hope it will be as soon as possible, but we all need to be realistic. It is unlikely to be anytime soon and 2022 seems the soonest it could feasibly be and we could very well be looking closer to the middle of the decade.

Remember: Never lend money that you couldn't afford to pay back without a flying job. Always have a back-up plan if things don't work out as you expect them. Don't expect to walk into a shiny jet cockpit when finishing your training. Always give yourself as much flexibility as possible.

Flexibility means going modular and it has many advantages. You can take a break when training. Perhaps do the PPL and ATPL exams and take a break to see how the market is developing - You have 36 months to do the CPL and IR after finishing them. It is overall much cheaper to go modular as well.

[Jimmy The Big Greek]

Just got result, passed my assessment with FTE Jerez, starting September integrated. Can’t wait. They’ve said there will be a ton of jobs waiting when I finish.

May the force be with you, Luke Skywalker :}

[PilotLZ]

Timing is king and you need to be realistic about it. Right now, I can't see any significant opportunities for 200-hour beginners until mid-to-late 2022 at the very earliest. I'm actually tempted to say 2023, to err on the safe side. That's all based on interpolation from the numerous forecasts I studied in the past weeks.

How does this translate to you? If you intend on starting tomorrow full-time and finishing it all in 18 months, you will graduate in November 2021. Factor in at least 6 months for job hunting (that's often the case even in good times) - and you will still fall short of the window when significant improvement of the market is likely to happen. If, however, you start in a year from today with the same time to completion - you will likely find yourself in a far better position when you graduate. Or, alternatively, you can start now but space it out some more, aiming to finish by about Christmas 2022 for example.

The question of whether to start anything right now and follow a more spaced-out timeframe or start in a year and do everything in a more condensed manner depends entirely on your personal circumstances. Money? Job? Location? Situation at intended FTO - i.e. can they be trusted with any amount of money upfront or do they look even remotely likely to go under with it? If you start anything anytime soon, will you be able to travel to the training location? Will they have adequate resources to train you in a timely and efficient manner since there's likely to be a backlog on courses which were cut short by the lockdown? Research those questions, and research them very thoroughly. You can only make the right decisions with the right information in hand.

[TRENT210]

Would big ATO’s not strike a deal with Airlines like EasyJet to prioritise their future fresh graduates first?

Its beneficial to both the ATO’s and the airline.
The ATO’s can keep selling the £120k dream and the airlines have a steady stream of fresh graduates they can pay less.

Obviously the airlines could just pay the future experienced pilots they hire less, but by taking on fresh meat they could strike a deal for cheaper ongoing access to sim time etc with the ATO’s. Then just bridge any gap in experience with a few direct entry FO’s

Everybody wins... except experienced FO’s

[parkfell]

Would big ATO’s not strike a deal with Airlines like EasyJet to prioritise their future fresh graduates first?

Its beneficial to both the ATO’s and the airline.
The ATO’s can keep selling the £120k dream and the airlines have a steady stream of fresh graduates they can pay less.

Obviously the airlines could just pay the future experienced pilots they hire less, but by taking on fresh meat they could strike ,a deal for cheaper ongoing access to sim time etc with the ATO’s. Then just bridge any gap in experience with a few direct entry FO’s

Everybody wins... except experienced FO’s

If previous experience is any guide, they only wanted your “fresh meat” which means completed the CPL/IR/MCC in the last month, when they need junior birdmen on the hurry up.

Those competent juniors even ‘in store’ for say 3 months had past their ‘sell by date’ in the eyes of EZY on that occasion.

Now, that was then, and just what they say in future is a matter for conjecture.

Being in the right place at the right time will as ever play a crucial part in getting that all important first job.
Timing will be of the essence.

[Alex Whittingham]

"Would big ATO’s not strike a deal with Airlines like EasyJet to prioritise their future fresh graduates first?"

But what on earth could the ATOs offer to the airlines to make that deal stick? Ryanair have shown that you can get good pilots from both integrated and modular, there is NO difference.

[Banana Joe]

Actually Ryanair have agreements with three modular schools. None with the big ones.
​​​​​​

[portsharbourflyer]

Everyone has very short memories, history is normally a very good way to predict the future.

Trent210, to a lesser extent that is exactly what seemed to be happening in the period when recruitment levels were low (which to me is actually situation normal) in previous years.
Between 2008 until 2014 and to an extent between 2000 until 2007, there was certainly a trend where the mainstream airlines and the low cost were recruiting either low hour integrated via some form of SSTR scheme, or those with 500 hours time on jet preferably Airbus or Boeing. Alot of instructors and turboprops pilots in those times were stuck where they were unable to progress in that time. So Trent210 it is very feasible we could see the past practices return. While a cadet may entail extra training requirements in year 1 (if a SSTR scheme then the cost is partly or fully mitigated), by year two the lower salary starts to offer a saving.

The last 3 years were exceptional recruitment levels and the first time modular has seen an even keel in airline recruitment. The last 2 years did see BA take low hour modular via a SSTR scheme,absolutely unheard of in the previous 15 years.

However Look at LPJ, the Eaglejet Adverts for pay to fly have reappeared with a resurgence in recent weeks.

[fcom]

It only feels like yesterday when I was in the same position as you guys.I started my training in 1989 and when I became qualified Air Europe and Dan Air went bust. There were 600 qualified pilots actively seeking work and of course guys like myself were at the bottom of the list. It took me 4 years to get my first flying job when the glut finally reduced. I now work for a major U.K. long haul airline and once again pilots will be flooding the market in unprecedented amounts. This crisis will only go away with a vaccine. It started with one case 5 months ago there are now 4 million, we locked down with 3000 in the U.K. and unlocking with 300K, now I’m not a mathematician but it doesn’t take a genius to work out how serious this will become over the next 5 months it can only get worse.
The airlines are delusional when they predict only a 40% reduction in passenger travel over the next 12 months. The airlines are losing millions per week and the government loans will only give them about 8 months breathing space before they are back to square one. This is only phase one of redundancies and many more will follow after September when the passengers don’t return in sufficient numbers, aviation will never be the same again because without a vaccine in the next 12 months airlines will fail and recovery will take a minimum of 5 years to recover but once again only with a cure. Although I hope to survive this first round of redundancies sadly I am not confident that I will ever fly again. My advice is think very carefully about starting your training anytime soon, wait for a vaccine and then start and by the time you finish you may be in the right position to get your dream job. Good luck

[guy_incognito]

There's a very good chance that there will never be an effective vaccine for this virus. However, there is also a very good chance that the mortality rate is going to end up looking like seasonal flu (in the order of 0.1-.3%). Despite all the hysterical, media driven hype this remains a virus that overwhelmingly causes no or mild symptoms, except in statistically very limited cases.

In other words, we are going to learn to live with it. Leisure travel in particular is likely to rebound strongly, because people will want to go on holiday. Business travel is another story and I fear that it may be irreparably damaged.

With all of that said, I don't see there being any jobs for cadets within three years. Training now would be foolhardy, unless you have £10s of thousands that you can afford to lose.

[TRENT210]

"Would big ATO’s not strike a deal with Airlines like EasyJet to prioritise their future fresh graduates first?"

But what on earth could the ATOs offer to the airlines to make that deal stick? Ryanair have shown that you can get good pilots from both integrated and modular, there is NO difference.

There may not be any difference in quality but there is a difference in how much people pay.

My modular training cost £70k vs £100k+ that integrated students are paying. How much of that £70k is profit? More importantly how much of the £100k+ is profit?

What’s stops integrated schools looking to stay afloat / keep their reputation from offering some kind of legal “kickback” out of their profit margin to partner airlines ?

So you’ve got 2 freshly trained pilots; both with licences, both with their heads screwed on. One is modular and the other is from an integrated school who’s offering a £10k bounty to the airline that takes them on

Which graduate would the airline take ? They’re both of a high calibre but one stands to earn them £10k.

£10k might not seem a lot but when you multiply that by how many pilots they’ve needed up to now...

[flyingkeyboard]

There may not be any difference in quality but there is a difference in how much people pay.

My modular training cost £70k vs £100k+ that integrated students are paying. How much of that £70k is profit? More importantly how much of the £100k+ is profit?

What’s stops integrated schools looking to stay afloat / keep their reputation from offering some kind of legal “kickback” out of their profit margin to partner airlines ?

So you’ve got 2 freshly trained pilots; both with licences, both with their heads screwed on. One is modular and the other is from an integrated school who’s offering a £10k bounty to the airline that takes them on

Which graduate would the airline take ? They’re both of a high calibre but one stands to earn them £10k.

£10k might not seem a lot but when you multiply that by how many pilots they’ve needed up to now...

I suppose the question to ask in that situation would be, will students pay the premium knowing that the kickback is in place, or will they still take their chances and save money by going modular? And would there be sufficient students taking the integrated option to provide the schools with sufficient revenue to stay afloat?

[parkfell]

I suppose the question to ask in that situation would be, will students pay the premium knowing that the kickback is in place, or will they still take their chances and save money by going modular? And would there be sufficient students taking the integrated option to provide the schools with sufficient revenue to stay afloat?

They will stand a better chance “to stay afloat” if they start to market Modular Courses. At GA department will shortly appear on their websites. Additional competition for the present small schools.
Somewhat more admin intensive than the long Integrated course.

They will need to get the tick in the box from the Regulator.

Waters might be slightly muddy with BREXIT v. EASA. But I am sure the new Chairman of the UK 🇬🇧 CAA will ensure that a smooth transition is achieved.

Is there actual evidence of ‘kick backs’ ? Dangerous territory if Inspector Knacker of the Yard starts to nose about.....?

[TRENT210]

I suppose the question to ask in that situation would be, will students pay the premium knowing that the kickback is in place, or will they still take their chances and save money by going modular? And would there be sufficient students taking the integrated option to provide the schools with sufficient revenue to stay afloat?

Forgetting COVID19 for a second, if people were eager to pay £100k 12 months ago I doubt they’d have an issue paying £100k in the future knowing they’re at the top of the list for a job. Do people really care what the profit is used for ?

But as you’ve said... are there sufficient eager people ?

[PilotLZ]

We're yet to find out which way the modular VS integrated dilemma will go. I do find it extremely unlikely that integrated will become a thing of the past, but it might lose some of its premium status after all the failed cadetships. Most who went integrated up until disaster struck were ready to pay double for the sole reason of getting ahead of the pack when it comes to recruitment, with prestige, fun etc being secondary considerations at best. Whether this will still be the case in a year or two remains to be seen. And it's also heavily dependent on which part of the world you consider. In many countries integrated was never a big thing and even their legacy carriers filled their entry-level pilot vacancies with modular students.

[spitfirejock]

I posted this on another thread yesterday and copied it here as I thought it was relevant...........


I have, so far, resisted the temptation to join the hot and current thread about life after COVID, but I very much enjoyed reading the last posting by rudestuff, I wholeheartedly agree and it prompted me to join in.
Trying to avoid getting into the 'integrated vs "modular debate I would still at least hope by now, it is be clear to everyone who really has done their research, there is no difference, its simply about the quality of the training and the school's standards and moral compass.

I also admit, my crystal ball does NOT allow me to predict the future either, and despite many on here that think they are right (many gloomy and some optimistic), no one really knows, so in my opinion it boils down to money - spend as little as you can to follow your dream, but this would be my best advice even before the virus!!

There will be people that will strongly argue "you get what you pay for', perhaps an over generalization to justify the 100K plus price tag, but let the facts speak for themselves, Rudestuff is factually correct, I personally also know many great commercial pilots who paid an equivalent sum (different amounts depending which year they trained, of course), and today that is the right and sensible amount to spend if you want to start now.

I certainly do not subscribe to gloom and doom approach. Flying is fantastic, flying as a recreational pilot is incredible fun and rewarding, gaining a full commercial and looking for an airline job in the future is commendable and it still is for many, the greatest job on earth despite those that suggest otherwise, although maybe for them they hate it. So certainly do not stop the dream and give up, just take enjoyable affordable steps and be ready for the next hiring boom, whenever it might occur.

So to the pundits that predict Armageddon - they say flying is finished, no one will travel again. I cant say they are wrong, just as I cant say I am right, however, learning to fly and holding a PPL is fulfilling the dream of flying, you can do most things and go most places (especially with an IR), you can even share costs with friends, you just cant be paid or fly for an airline yet, but later, its an easy jump if by the time everything returns (if it does) to normal, you have a couple of hundred hours in your logbook and have enjoyed every minute of it.

SJ

[Northern Monkey]

The other thing I would just mention here for consideration: Even assuming you could find a job, what will pilot terms and conditions look like post COVID?

It is fair to assume the cost of training will not go down. However, the contract waiting at the far end may be materially different. For some people, the so called "wannabe zombie army" that may not matter, but for the more considered viewers of this forum, I would keep a close eye on how airlines are changing their terms and conditions. There is limited visibility on this yet because most employers are still at the option generation stage. When the cuts start to be announced, they may be very unpalatable.

Speaking from my experience, during training you are excited about flying jets. Once you have been flying for a while you realise that what actually matters (just like any other job) is the life your job allows you to lead, both financially and socially. How much will I have left at the end of the month once I've paid for my flying loan, car, rent etc. How many days off will I have? How much holiday? Will I be able to get a mortgage? The list goes on, but these are the important things.

One other thing to consider which, frankly, because I was young and naive, I did not. The aviation industry, as is being demonstrated with horrible consequence now, is uniquely exposed to the perils of world events. Which basically makes the whole recruitment market for pilots just a big lottery. I feel for the Thomas Cook pilots who having found another job must have been elated, only to immediately be at risk of redundancy again. Or the Flybe pilots who find themselves working at Tesco. Ours is an industry which is always going to be exposed to this kind of thing and while the current situation is without precedent, its worth bearing in mind that working in aviation will, periodically, come with a large dose of stress during major crises. I doubt there is anyone working in aviation at the moment who isn't, on some level, contingency planning in case the worst happens. It is not a pleasant feeling.

Aviation will recover at some point. The world isn't going back to the stone ages. People will still want to fly and go on holiday. But if you are determined to become a pilot it will be more important than ever to do the sums properly and go into it with your eyes open.

[guy_incognito]

Speaking from my experience, during training you are excited about flying jets. Once you have been flying for a while you realise that what actually matters (just like any other job) is the life your job allows you to lead, both financially and socially. How much will I have left at the end of the month once I've paid for my flying loan, car, rent etc. How many days off will I have? How much holiday? Will I be able to get a mortgage? The list goes on, but these are the important things.

This is all absolutely spot on, and as you say it's what a lot of wannabes are least likely to actually consider.

I don't see how it's possible for anyone working in aviation from now on to even consider buying a house, leasing a car, enjoying any discretionary spending whatsoever. Unless your partner works and has a secure and well paid job, I don't see how it's possible now for a pilot to plan for a family, knowing that their job security is and always will be non-existent.

The cuts to Ts&Cs are going to be absolutely brutal. The old maxim attributed to Churchill is "Never waste a good crisis." and you can rest assured that airline management are rubbing their hands with glee at the opportunity that has presented itself to take a scythe to contracts. The reality is likely to be that salaries and conditions will never again return to anything close to what we had prior to the crisis. It was never justifiable from a bean counter's point of view to pay £40k for entry level (FO cadet) jobs and £six figures for captains, when this has always been an aspirational career path with a vast oversupply of applicants. The "new normal" contracts are not going to make nice reading.

[TRENT210]

Ours is an industry which is always going to be exposed to this kind of thing and while the current situation is without precedent, its worth bearing in mind that working in aviation will, periodically, come with a large dose of stress during major crises. I doubt there is anyone working in aviation at the moment who isn't, on some level, contingency planning in case the worst happens. It is not a pleasant feeling.

I’m stressed at the moment as are most of my colleagues, I imagine.

However I would gladly take periodic stress and job insecurity over going back to join the headphone wearing zombies, I used to see on the train to my old job, commuting to the same steady 9-5 office job and counting down the days until the weekend everyday for the next 40+ years. No thanks.

This movie scene was one of the reasons I never gave up chasing my dream:

https://youtu.be/TkX-TPaodoM

[PilotLZ]

Pay and general T&Cs will not be down forever. Once things pick up again, companies will inevitably need more pilots. Especially experienced ones as it's simply not realistic to run flight operations entirely on 200-hour cadets and freshly upgraded Captains. You need instructors and examiners. You need senior FOs for inexperienced Captains to fly with. You also need experienced and capable Captains to fly with the FOs who are fresh out of line training. What's the way to attract experienced individuals from other establishments or to prevent them from quitting flying for better careers? Offer them more in return. Simple supply and demand.

For some time, it will not be pretty. Especially for the beginners. Think self-funded type ratings, zero-hour contracts, a new advent of P2F and whatnot else. But it will level out in a couple of years.

[awair]

There is an incredible depth of wisdom and advice in this thread, but I'll add my 2-cents anyway, as it's probably better to learn from the mistakes of others, than your own?

But first it simply boils down to this:
It is never a good time to become a Pilot neither is it ever a bad time to become a Pilot. It is, however, important to become a Pilot.


Once the restrictions start to lift, one can assume an influx of high quality instructors into training industry. You want to do your pilot training when the economy is down - this typically means you get a good product for a low price.

Yes airlines are firing a LOT of pilots at the moment, but here's the thing..
First of all, airlines also have a LOT of metal sitting on the ground. These planes cost ridiculous money in leasing every month and there's no way out of it. Some airlines will go bankrupt but the machines will still make losses to somebody, be it a lessor, bank, an oil magnate, it doesn't matter - at some point they will need to fly again to pay themselves off and you will need people for that.


I agree with @q400_driver, this will be a great time to train, good instruction and possibly unique opportunities ... but watch your budget!


There will be thousands, probably tens of thousands of flying jobs over the next 5 years, but none, bar the odd cargo one for the next 2. An incomprehensible number of airlines will go bust, maybe not today, but soon. They’ll come out of this so riddled with debt; this will open up many many opportunities new solvent airlines to form. They’ll be able to buy slots, planes and crew very very cheap, on far worse terms than those employed now are on.

No amount of government loaning is going to solve our/the upcoming debt crisis.

There are going to be massive winners out of this, but the brands you recognise I’m afraid, aren’t going to be the champions.


There are grounds for optimism as well as pessimism. Those pilots in their mid-50s, will leave the industry early, in an attempt to carve a second career. Some, who are young enough will switch as well, and others, thinking of training, will fail to continue. This 'natural selection' will not make jobs available for all, but there will be opportunities for those willing and eager.


I also admit, my crystal ball does NOT allow me to predict the future either, and despite many on here that think they are right (many gloomy and some optimistic), no one really knows, so in my opinion it boils down to money - spend as little as you can to follow your dream, but this would be my best advice even before the virus!!

So to the pundits that predict Armageddon - they say flying is finished, no one will travel again. I cant say they are wrong, just as I cant say I am right, however, learning to fly and holding a PPL is fulfilling the dream of flying, you can do most things and go most places (especially with an IR), you can even share costs with friends, you just cant be paid or fly for an airline yet, but later, its an easy jump if by the time everything returns (if it does) to normal, you have a couple of hundred hours in your logbook and have enjoyed every minute of it.
SJ

So rather than "Modular or Integrated?", maybe reconsider your goal: do you want to fly? Do you want to be a pilot, or be paid to be a pilot? That £70k or 100k could go a long way to a much better solution, if the earnings curve doesn't match what has been historically available.

My advice would be to enroll in a US aviation-centric University (Purdue, UND, Ohio State etc). Follow a non-flying degree with earning potential, and over the 2-4 years duration, qualify for PPL, IR etc, as your budget allows. Keep an eye on the market, and accelerate your flying training as appropriate.

Most of all, enjoy every hour you spend aloft, rather than rushing through a never-ending treadmill to a destination that disappears.

Good luck!

[parkfell]

AWAIR gives sound advice and points to institutions the other side of the pond.

For those obviously very disappointed embryonic pilots, C-19 will delay your plans for the time it takes to obtain a good degree / post graduate qualification.

It doesn’t have to be aviation related such as aeronautical engineering.

It always amazes me that those enrolling think it is all about aeroplane design. It is not. 90% of the course is mathematics:
disappointed / frustrated potential aviators often emerge.

Great if you enjoy maths as much as aeroplanes. Potential TPs.

Obtaining a degree in a totally non aviation discipline is fine, although you need to avoid degree courses which might come under the broad bush heading of “Underwater Basket Weaving”.

One of the consequences of this present tsunami is that those who think aviation will somehow help with their insecurity and improve their kudos, by walking through the terminal in a pilot’s uniform will think again.

Only those with a burning desire to fly will emerge from these dark days.
The analogy I often use is about those contemplating (for the right reasons!) joining the Church ~ you have to believe in GOD.

I have my faith in Prof Sarah Gilbert’s Oxford team producing a vaccine this year.

[portsharbourflyer]

"It always amazes me that those enrolling think it is all about aeroplane design. It is not. 90% of the course is mathematics":

While what you say is in essence correct, I think the better way to phrase that is mathematics is a major element to aircraft design (well any engineering subject really). To add Aero Engineering is actually more challenging than a maths degree, in engineering you have to learn how to apply those mathematical principles to the physical application (by definition that is what engineering is).
Design without calculations is product design (designing fancy desk top pencil trays and such forth) not engineering.

You are however correct that many studying aeronautical engineering do fail to realise that it is just a variation on mechanical engineering. Also the fact that most of the content is mechanical engineering, means that it is equally useful for gaining employment in engineering sectors outside of aerospace, which considering the potential layoffs at RR, Boeing and Airbus means some Aero Engineering graduates will have to look to other sectors in the short term.

[PilotLZ]

Any engineering degree, even if it's in a broad discipline like mechanical, chemical or civil engineering, will not only give you a respectable and versatile qualification for backup but will also teach you transferable skills which will eventually make you a better pilot and more efficient all-round. Being able to research a problem independently or as part of a team, propose a solution to it and present it appropriately is a major part of many jobs, not just of airline flying. The same goes for time management, processing large volumes of information, adapting to a new and diverse environment, getting your work-life balance right and whatnot else that you will naturally learn at uni and will never learn solely by drilling through ATPL question banks. The latter reminds me of the proverbial cadet who was asked a simple aerodynamics question in an airline interview and replied with "What are the options?". Don't be that person.

And, to reiterate on what some members rightly said above - even if you're doing an aviation degree, never forget that it's an entirely different cup of tea than flight training. If you go in with the expectations of doing a three-year course in "flying with partying", you will be frustrated AF by the end of semester one. Rather than that, treat it as an opportunity to expand your skills and knowledge and as a broad base, allowing you to easily specialize in flying at a later time. And, of course, get the most of it, have a lot of fun and build some lifelong friendships and memories on the way.

[flying25]

I should (hopefully) be starting my Integrated ATPL program in July and with that will be spending the first six months completing the 14 ATPL exams. As I have a bit of time before I start the course, I was wondering whether there is anything useful I could be doing to prepare for the theory aspect to make it easier once I am there. I am brushing up on my maths/ physics but feel this could be better spent actually focusing on the ATPL content?

The sheer volume of content is making it hard for me to know what the best strategy is prior to starting the course.

Any help/advice would be much appreciated.

[Spid]

I need some advice, as this is the most important and uncertain decision I have ever faced.

I am a 29 year old aerospace engineer. I quit my job on January to start integrated ATPL. Now I’m 4 months into the course and seems the worst moment to start this huge investment as the future looks bad for pilots. I don’t want to make a decision such as quitting the course, just in the very peak of pessimism. I would need some more time to understand what the near future is gonna be like, as for now we know nothing. But the longer I take to decide, the more money I loose in this ATPL attempt. I might not get back 7-12K€ for this 4 months.

If I were to start the course now, the decision would be easy. I’d just do modular course. And if things went well I would continue, if bad, I would just stay at PPL, and at least experience flying.
I want to be a pilot no matter what, but current reality is a continuous big slap on my face.

Looking for a non pilot job, for the next 3-10 years is a reality. But sooner or later I’ll pursue this dream again, as there is nothing else I want to do. But could I get hired in the future, in maybe 10 years from now, me being 39?

To understand my risk, I’d be paying the course remortgaging a house I own, shared with my sister. But the next years look bad to find a job also for me, having an engineering degree. Won’t be the best moment to have a 80K€ debt.

Im asking for advice to friends, pilots, engineers, and everyone I trust.
It would be helpful a to see some opinions here.
so, what would you do?

[parkfell]

........I might not get back 7-12K€ for this 4 months......
..... It would be helpful to see some opinions here.
so, what would you do?

Cut your losses NOW. Damage limitation exercise. Spend no more on training.

Revert to the modular flying element route once a vaccine becomes available.
There will be a significant lag between that future moment, and airlines gearing up again.

The C-19 will invariably mutate, and in common with seasonal flu, a yearly vaccine will be produced.

Do not have a large debt with no prospect of repaying it. Severe impact on future credit worthiness.

[Bridgestone17]

[QUOTE=fcom;10781904
The airlines are delusional when they predict only a 40% reduction in passenger travel over the next 12 months. The airlines are losing millions per week and the government loans will only give them about 8 months of breathing space before they are back to square one. This is only phase one of redundancies and many more will follow after September when the passengers don’t return in sufficient numbers, aviation will never be the same again because without a vaccine in the next 12 months airlines will fail and recovery will take a minimum of 5 years to recover but once again only with a cure. My advice is think very carefully about starting your training anytime soon, wait for a vaccine and then start, and by the time you finish you may be in the right position to get your dream job. Good luck[/QUOTE]

I agree totally with this.....Flight Schools are being irresponsible by promoting Integrated Courses at this time and should switch everyone to Modular.

[Northern Monkey]

One thing to consider, and I stress I have no inside information whatsoever but I offer this as a general point of principle.

Once upon a time (otherwise known as January this year), the big integrated schools looked like rock solid businesses where your cash would be safe as houses. Now? Who knows. You have well established airlines talking about the current situation as an existential threat. Could these business ultimately fail over the coming months/years? Almost unthinkable until recently but if I was looking at sizeable payments for integrated training I would be thinking carefully about my exposure to these sorts of risks.

Yet another reason why, second only to postponing your training, modular looks like the smartest option right now.

[kpd]

remember cabair?

[Alex Whittingham]

TBH the integrated schools did not look like that in January, they looked like there was already something badly wrong. Look back on the posts

[Bridgestone17]

remember cabair?

Certainly do - I worked there when they went bust and they still owe me money. Some chance eh?

[parkfell]

I should (hopefully) be starting my Integrated ATPL program in July......

The sheer volume of content is making it hard for me to know what the best strategy is prior to starting the course.

Any help/advice would be much appreciated.

Presumably you are aware that a tsunami has hit aviation?

What is your assessment as to when you might gain employment?

Your best strategy is to delay the course until a vaccine is available, unless of course money is no object and the course will not create a mountain of debt.....

Modular might be the wiser option until Crystal Balls are fully “S”.

[Peter Ahonsi]

Modular student currently doing my PPL at Redhill aviation. Given the current state of the industry i am u sure where continuing my training is the right thing to do for now i plan to finish my PPL first. I was wondering what people thought of the timeline is spacing out a good idea would i end up finishing my training potentially during a next hiring wave.
Night Rating - October 2020

Hour Building: September 2020- February 2022

ATPLs: September 2022 - December 2023 (15months ATPLs Passed ) -

Commercial Training- June 2024 Multi- Engine Piston Rating : Multi- Engine instrument rating: CPL

[Northern Monkey]

I just thought you were a bit of an idiot to be fair.

[OlsAconye]

Time and patience...Aviation has weathered many a storm. We can arm chair quarterback this till we are blue in the face but negativity will only make things worse.

[parkfell]

honestly did anyone believe me when I wrote this. Irony obviously missed.

What isn’t missed is your total lack of empathy for those unfortunate trainees caught up in this tsunami.
You are a feckless imbecile.

[portsharbourflyer]

Peter_Ahons, if you are worried about finishing training in a hiring wave then its best for you to stop flying now and go find a different industry.
In the last 20 years the only hiring boom was probably the previous 3 years just before the covid.

Anytime out side of that it was always difficult to get the first flying job, often people would have taken 3 to 5 years to find the first multi crew job in the period between 2000 to 2014 (the main exception to that were those placed by the integrated schools and those paying 30k to Ryanair for a rating). There was a small peak around late 2007 followed by the downturn in 2008.
I doubt we will see recruitment levels of the previous three years ever again (again based on the trend of the last 20 years then in 17 years time, who knows), and I will say this again the last three years was the exception not the normal, the last three years has given too many people a false perception of the industry. Flight training was always a gamble.
If you are single with no commitments then generally there are/will be opportunities somewhere at some point.

[rudestuff]

Modular student currently doing my PPL at Redhill aviation. Given the current state of the industry i am u sure where continuing my training is the right thing to do for now i plan to finish my PPL first. I was wondering what people thought of the timeline is spacing out a good idea would i end up finishing my training potentially during a next hiring wave.
Night Rating - October 2020

Hour Building: September 2020- February 2022

ATPLs: September 2022 - December 2023 (15months ATPLs Passed ) -

Commercial Training- June 2024 Multi- Engine Piston Rating : Multi- Engine instrument rating: CPL

Good idea? Only if money is a problem. Spacing out training makes it more expensive. You have no idea when the next hiring will take place so you want to be ready when it happens. But you don't want to be in possession of an "out-of-date" licence either (where it's been too long since you passed your test)
You should finish your PPL and night rating then take your ATPLs then aim to get your IRR, CBIR and SECPL as quickly as possible. That saves the ATPLs. You won't have a fATPL but you will have a CPL/IR. You'll have spent in total about 4x the cost of your PPL (circa £30k) and when the hiring starts, you can upgrade to a fATPL in a few weeks, then apply for jobs with a 'fresh' MEIR and MCC/JOC. That last bit might not happen quickly, so there's nothing stopping you becoming an FI in the mean time.

[parkfell]

Modular student currently doing my PPL at Redhill aviation.

WITHOUT PREJUDICE

Just one thing to add ~ confirm that you have been issued with a Class One Medical.
It will lapse eventually into a Class Two, and finally expire.

You can renew it before the expiry of the Class Two, or, if you pause the flying, ensure that it expires by no more than 5 years, otherwise full Initial is required again.

As the outcome of BREXIT v. EASA is still to be resolved, check the validity of the above paragraphs early 2021.

[klm1234]

Hi guys,

I am organising a webinar on this issue for young aspiring pilots to ask questions from someone who is an experienced pilot has work experience in alternative industries and recently completed a degree .Having gone through a crisis myself I can imagine the dilemma you all are facing. You will be able to ask questions as it will be a live webinar. If any of you is interested you can register on:
https://she-pilots.com/webinar-registration-planb/

[harveyst]

What amazes me is how these conversations ALWAYS descend in to name calling and arguing! People are genuinely looking for advice and help, common sense would say ‘go to a forum with pilots and ask them for assistance’. Give it a few days and it’s chaos.
I understand that people will have different ideas about the way to proceed with training and the effect of COVID on the industry. But let’s try and be mature, help each other out and be respectful to one another.
every thread is full to brim with ‘glossy brochure this’ and ‘mummy and daddy that’ with the odd splattering ‘You are an idiot if you don’t go modular’.
it’s not helpful.
rant over! Peace

[WarrenFlight]

Well said! So many bitter comments that aren’t helpful on here and other threads.

[squidie]

Hello,

Hope all are keeping well.

Despite our current extraordinary circumstances. I have been looking into two integrated flight training courses. Those being FTE Jerez and also L3 Harris.
Any information on them? I have read about L3 having a few issues.

What is the general thoughts on going modular, is that more suitable with the issues in the industry?

I am fully aware that the industry is currently in turmoil... would that encourage the modular route being the better?

Thank youModular course right now just depends on what your local FTOs offer; it’s definitely the safest approach to flight training. I’d spread it out over a few years, PPL then CPL and re-evaluate before going for MCC/IR etc. With a modular course you can at least put the brake on training if you feel you’re not heading in the right direction for whatever reason.

I have the money myself sat in a bank account and a well paid job so I would suite a modular course better anyway. But I wouldn’t dream of doing an integrated course over the next several years. The risk of financial loss due to upfront costs and lack of jobs plus security mostly.

The industry will recover but we are in no sensible position to predict it any further than what the airline boards have already, which were based on Q1 and partial Q2 figures.

[pilotssky]

Hi guys,

What is better to get a job when aviation recovers, a pilot with 1500hrs flown in a Cessna 172 or a pilot with 350hrs but with a type rating in the airplane to be flown in the airline?

[MADMAX190]

What amazes me is how these conversations ALWAYS descend in to name calling and arguing! People are genuinely looking for advice and help, common sense would say ‘go to a forum with pilots and ask them for assistance’. Give it a few days and it’s chaos.
I understand that people will have different ideas about the way to proceed with training and the effect of COVID on the industry. But let’s try and be mature, help each other out and be respectful to one another.
every thread is full to brim with ‘glossy brochure this’ and ‘mummy and daddy that’ with the odd splattering ‘You are an idiot if you don’t go modular’.
it’s not helpful.
rant over! Peace
Yes, exactly! Very well said.

[Rolercoaster79]

Modular student currently doing my PPL at Redhill aviation. Given the current state of the industry i am u sure where continuing my training is the right thing to do for now i plan to finish my PPL first. I was wondering what people thought of the timeline is spacing out a good idea would i end up finishing my training potentially during a next hiring wave.
Night Rating - October 2020

Hour Building: September 2020- February 2022

ATPLs: September 2022 - December 2023 (15months ATPLs Passed ) -

Commercial Training- June 2024 Multi- Engine Piston Rating : Multi- Engine instrument rating: CPL
I would advise you to start ATPL theory caurse right after PPL and do some hour building along in order not to forget flying.
ATPL also covers CPL theory and IR theory. You have quite enough time to get those ratings after ATPL theory and postpone huge payments for advance courses like SEIR, ME, and CPL are. Don’t forget once you have a rating you have to prolong it every year.

[Bjornolf]

Hi guys,

What is better to get a job when aviation recovers, a pilot with 1500hrs flown in a Cessna 172 or a pilot with 350hrs but with a type rating in the airplane to be flown in the airline?

Hello,

I recommend you take type training which is sponsored by airline.

A lot of European companies give their own type rating training to new graduates.

Type rating will be a burden for you without 500 or 1000 hours on A320/B737/etc.

Actually even the first officers that have 500 hours on A320/B737 are in danger. Because many small charter airlines are in trouble due to the coronavirus at the moment.

[MADMAX190]

Hi guys,

What is better to get a job once aviation recovers, a pilot with 1500hrs flown in a Cessna 172 or a pilot with 350hrs but with a type rating in the airplane to be flown in the airline?

This depends on so many factors, not least, how the industry is doing for experienced candidates....which right now, there is a glut of.
Whether or not the European carriers, especially the low cost ones, are going to be more interested in hiring experience, or in hiring low time guys is anyone's guess. On the one hand, it would be sensible to hire experience, it would make training easier and more cost effective, as well as adding to safety. On the other hand, experienced guys are less likely to tolerate poor conditions and BS, so some low costs may be more inclined to take low time pilots as they will be more easily controlled, and have less to compare their ****ty conditions/treatment to.
If the majority of carriers decide to hire the experienced guys first, then I'd say 1500 on a C172 is going to be more beneficial, as you're more likely to pick up a job flying a turboprop with this, not to mention, if you go that route, you'll pick up valuable decision making skills, as well as hand-flying skills which, I don't care what anyone says, you will NOT pick up in the RHS of an A320. Those skills will help you a lot in your simulator checks once you are flying that jet. It will also make you appreciate your job on that jet far more when you do get there, and probably make you less insufferable for the majority of captains! ;-)

On the other hand, it can't be denied that most of us want to get into that jet as soon as possible, IF airlines decide to go with the "cadet" route and hire low time guys, then obviously a type rating on said jet will make you more employable in what is going to be a VERY competitive market.

On the whole I'd probably say 1500 hours in a C172, or better still, 500 in a C172 and 500 in a twin, will get you a job somewhere, whereas the 350 hour option will be a risk. Unless you're a sponsored cadet with a "guarantee" (airlines use that term loosely sometimes so be careful) of joining an airline once graduated, I'd say option 1 is your best bet.
Good luck out there, this is a cruel industry.

[portsharbourflyer]

Yes you can renew the medical without even flying. If you are under 40, while the class 1 medical expires after 12 months, it is still then gives you a Class 2 medical for a further 4 years (5 years from the date of initial class 1 issue) . So you don't even need to renew the class 1 immediately at the expiry date, you wait until you need a class 1 again.

[pilotfromhk]

Well a bit opinion from Hong Kong.
I dont know whether you guys have heard of "SARS" in 2003. It was also a pandemic disease which had an outbreak in mainly Asia.
Hong Kong was one of the most seriously affected place and the death rate of the disease we had here was up to 15-20%.
At that time, as a major global hub, the number of flights in Hong Kong were decreased by almost 80%.
Of course the crisis ended eventually but there is still no vaccine for the virus up to this day actually. The virus itself just magically disappeared.
One concrete data can be shared is that after the end of the crisis (which lasted for around 4-5 months in 2003), the tourism in Hong Kong had been in its historical low.
And eventually it took us around 3 months after the crisis had ended to restore to the pre-SARS level of passenger flow.

I'm not being too optimistic but what I can say is that once the situation of C-19 is controlled, the industry will definitely recover in a very rapid rate.
So let's cross our fingers and hope that the situation will soon get better.

[parkfell]

Well a bit opinion from Hong Kong.......
........And eventually it took us around 3 months after the crisis had ended to restore to the pre-SARS level of passenger flow. I'm not being too optimistic but what I can say is that once the situation of C-19 is controlled, the industry will definitely recover in a very rapid rate.So let's cross our fingers and hope that the situation will soon get better.

The rate of recovery will be a function of the “circulation of money”

[first year Economics 1973 by one Dr. Reeky ~ Newcastle]

That in turn is a function of being in employment to earn the money, and the confidence to spend it, and not saving it all for a rainy day.

It follows that (excessive) unemployment will delay recovery.

The reported comment of “Christ” from Boris is the realising that lockdown is a double edged sword.

My money is on a vaccine available by December 2020. The Oxford team seem reasonably confident. Eight other teams also “working on it”

As for the recovery; well, green shoots in Q.2 of 2021.
Even keel Q.3 of 2022

[PilotLZ]

Now that the shock and fear from the pandemic are gradually abating, people have already started thinking about travel. And the number of naysayers who believe in any sort of "new normal" involving far less travel long-term is getting smaller and smaller. Public confidence will be regained not too long after the restrictions are lifted and the economy will most likely recover fairly quickly as it entered the crisis in pretty good overall shape. Sure, there will be a period of re-absorption of experienced pilots into the market, leaving little space for new entrants. Some jets will inevitably have their tails repainted, many personnel will go to bed being employed by one company and wake up being employed by a different one. But saying that there's no future in airline flying and no efforts to enter this profession are worthwhile is pure nonsense.

I would still advise any newbie against going much further than a PPL, the odd hour once or twice a month to keep current and at-home studying of the ATPL subjects (since they require a fair bit of work and it's never too early to get started on that) for at least a year from now. I'm absolutely not saying this in the sense of "steer clear and get into something else". I'm saying it as in "not just yet, have some patience until the dust settles". If you can do a degree in the meantime - fantastic. If not - you can still acquire some valuable new skill or work experience. In some time, flying will be there for you. Just be patient and take your time.

[Bridgestone17]

Let this pandemic be a warning to all you wannabe's how quickly your dreams can go up in smoke through no fault of your own. To borrow the ridiculous sums of money required to go on an overpriced course is sheer madness. The travelling public has been treated shoddily by the airlines and travel companies and this has shaken their confidence in making holiday arrangements. Business travel and a limited amount of bucket and spade bookings will not be enough to sustain some airlines so expect to see a few companies go under. This will have a knock-on effect on their recruitment and opportunities will become few for several years. Do not rush and make sure you have a plan B not involving Aviation.

[speedrestriction]

I would say that the mid 2022 is likely to be the earliest that wannabies should consider starting their commercial training if there sufficient indication of improvement. Be super careful about paying up front for any training - there will be lots of financially stressed companies out there. Willie Walsh has just been on LBC - BA won't return to 2019 size until 2024 which is probably a reasonable window for any large companies which survive. Bear in mind that when you do pop out the far end of the training system, salaries may be lower than they have been for the past few years - frequently in times of turmoil, pilot unions are asked to sell the next generation down the river to protect their own contracts by allowing companies to offer a diminished package to new joiners. Personally I have been flying for about 15 years and this is the second time I am having to assess options outside the industry in case I am made redundant. If you are smart enough to fly commercially, you are smart enough to succeed in many other professions which are less turbulent.

[stoneangel]

two words

good luck

[African_TrouserSnake]

Well a bit opinion from Hong Kong.
I dont know whether you guys have heard of "SARS" in 2003. It was also a pandemic disease which...

How can you even compare this with the current situation? 'Rapid rate of recovery' and your basing this on the SARS outbreak a few years ago? It is quite dillusional to be honest, I don't know if you've noticed but major carriers are on the verge of bankruptcy atm.
I get that this 'it will get better, just look at [random example]' is a way of cognitive coping for many, but it will only lull newbies into selling their parent's house since their confimation bias will be reinforced by these 'hopeful messages'.

I invite you to take a look at the "European Airline Pilots" FB group to get a sobering view on the situation. created the 31st of may and 10k+ members already.
Fresh F/O's, SFO's, CPTs, ex-mil drivers, all in **** or about to be, meanwhile driving delivery trucks just to get by.
Daily stories of people who just got into RHS, 3-4-5-6 years after finishing their fATPL, now on furlough/dismissed.

Yes it will get better, but just be real.:ugh:

[PilotLZ]

It will get better, that's for sure. But, with all that unemployed experienced crew, a 200-hour junior birdman will be far behind the pack when jobs start coming up - simply because airlines will have so many more convincing candidates to choose from for quite a while. Just put into perspective the fact that former A380 pilots will be applying for the same jobs as you. And that will likely be the case for at least three years from now. Of course, with some degree of variation by region.

So, it's down to you to accept that this will take a bit longer than you hoped for and spend your time and money wisely rather than rush straight into it the moment lockdown is lifted and then spend a year or two struggling with debt, frustration and diminishing skills and knowledge. Whether you will be studying for a degree, starting up your own business, getting vocational training in a trade, working and saving money to do the entire fATPL without getting into any debt or a combination of those - that's up to you. But making the most out of that inevitable waiting time can pay you massive dividends in the long-term run. You can choose to come out of the other end as a well-rounded, financially sound and confident individual with a fATPL. Or you can choose to become a minimum-wage worker with a fATPL, hamstrung with debt, struggling to keep current and devoid of any prospects anytime soon. Your call.

[eimin]

People must be out of their minds if they believe they will have any chance, in the next 3-5 years, against A380 captains or pilots with +3 years experience and rated.

[RedDragonFlyer]

What amazes me is how these conversations ALWAYS descend in to name calling and arguing! People are genuinely looking for advice and help, common sense would say ‘go to a forum with pilots and ask them for assistance’. Give it a few days and it’s chaos.
I understand that people will have different ideas about the way to proceed with training and the effect of COVID on the industry. But let’s try and be mature, help each other out and be respectful to one another.
every thread is full to brim with ‘glossy brochure this’ and ‘mummy and daddy that’ with the odd splattering ‘You are an idiot if you don’t go modular’.
it’s not helpful.
rant over! Peace

Couldn't agree more! There are lots of slurs being thrown around in threads on this forum. I am sure people could be a bit more cordial - manners cost nothing after all.

Many people are in difficult situations. Take me for example. I am studying for my ATPLs at the moment and would have sat exams this month if it weren't for the cancellation of them. I'm in a real pickle with what to do. My current plan is to sit them as slowly as possible, probably stretching the exams out until next summer. Then to take a break and find a full-time job and see how the market looks after that. Only three years to get the CPL/IR after finishing the exams of course.
Another part of me is thinking that I should just give up now and start again when the market looks like it's picking up.

I don't think there is a right answer, and, TBH, I'd be a little scared to ask here in case someone describes me as an 'idiot' or 'out of my mind'. Nobody is against honest advice, but the way some people put it...

[PilotLZ]

As unpleasant as it is to read that you are delusional and out of your mind and you need to have your head checked, it's usually nothing personal. It's not about you; it's about some colleagues having coping problems and relieving them by preaching doom and gloom all over the place. I've seen that a number of times in real world as well. Many seem to feel some relief by making those around them upset.

There's no denial that the current situation is not pretty and it will not get miraculously sorted by next month. But by moaning about how screwed we are we won't make it any better. So, everyone shall ask themselves two things. First, what do I need to do to survive this financially? Second, how do I keep my skills and knowledge sharp for that day when a suitable job comes up? As long as you have those answered, it's a matter of patience.

[parkfell]

I am studying for my ATPLs at the moment and would have sat exams this month if it weren't for the cancellation of them.........My current plan is to sit them as slowly as possible, probably stretching the exams out until next summer. Then to take a break and find a full-time job and see how the market looks after that.......

The clock starts ticking once the first sitting occurs, and as we don’t know when ‘midnight’ might be, you probably need to delay that clock starting.

Full time job now, and ideally do the necessary without incurring debt. Class One Medical issued?

Gentle hour building, IR(R), night rating, QCC and once the green shoots have firmly established, write the exams, followed by the modular CPL/IR courses.

Just bear in mind, when airlines talk about recovering etc, that is not talking about active recruitment. Retirements will be more frequent than expansion.

Confidence and ‘circulation of money‘ are the essential drivers for recovery.

[RedDragonFlyer]

The clock starts ticking once the first sitting occurs, and as we don’t know when ‘midnight’ might be, you probably need to delay that clock starting.

Full time job now, and ideally do the necessary without incurring debt. Class One Medical issued?

Are you sure about that?

https://www.iaa.ie/personnel-licensing/pilot-licences-(eu-regulations)/licensing-faq/faq---pilot-examinations
''At ATPL level, a pass in the theoretical knowledge examinations will be accepted for the grant of a CPL and/or an Instrument rating (IR) for a period of 36 months, counted from the end of the calendar month when a pass in all required examination papers was achieved. Provided that both a CPL and IR are granted within the aforementioned 36 month period, ATPL level examination results will be accepted for the grant of an ATPL for a period of seven years from the most recent validity date of the IR entered in the CPL.''

Yes, I have a PPL and class 1. I suppose I am quite lucky in some regards. The only money I have paid for upfront at the moment is for the ATPL theory which is pennies in comparison to other parts of training. I have no debt and have already saved up enough money through working to pay all the way through to MCC. For me personally, I've waited a fair while and waiting a few more years to finish at the ideal time is not a massive issue in the grand scheme of things.

[portsharbourflyer]

Parkfell, you are partly correct, there is an 18 months time limit to complete the exams once the first exam is sat, the 36 months for completing the training starts from when the exams are completed. So yes the clock does start ticking at the first exam effectively.

[rudestuff]

Are you sure about that?

https://www.iaa.ie/personnel-licensing/pilot-licences-(eu-regulations)/licensing-faq/faq---pilot-examinations
''At ATPL level, a pass in the theoretical knowledge examinations will be accepted for the grant of a CPL and/or an Instrument rating (IR) for a period of 36 months, counted from the end of the calendar month when a pass in all required examination papers was achieved. Provided that both a CPL and IR are granted within the aforementioned 36 month period, ATPL level examination results will be accepted for the grant of an ATPL for a period of seven years from the most recent validity date of the IR entered in the CPL.''

Yes, I have a PPL and class 1. I suppose I am quite lucky in some regards. The only money I have paid for upfront at the moment is for the ATPL theory which is pennies in comparison to other parts of training. I have no debt and have already saved up enough money through working to pay all the way through to MCC. For me personally, I've waited a fair while and waiting a few more years to finish at the ideal time is not a massive issue in the grand scheme of things.

The SEIR is the perfect placeholder. And cheap, too - the cost of doing the IRR twice effectively. Do that first, then a SE CPL course, and you'll have effectively 'saved' the exams.

[asmith474]

Hey guys looking for some advice. Currently I hold a PPL and was about to start sitting my atpl exams. Do you recommend delaying it? My only worry is about the changes they are bringing regarding '100 KSA'. I would be sitting all my exams in Poland

[Chief Willy]

Hey guys looking for some advice. Currently I hold a PPL and was about to start sitting my atpl exams. Do you recommend delaying it? My only worry is about the changes they are bringing regarding '100 KSA'. I would be sitting all my exams in Poland

100% delay. There will be no jobs for years and by starting exams you start the clock on getting your ratings. Most airlines are firing and wont be recruiting again for at least 3 years.

[rudestuff]

Don't delay, take the exams. You were ready to press the button, right? So presumably you have the money for training. Take the exams, get the CBIR, get the CPL. All single engine. Now the exams are safe, you've spent a lot less than you planned and you've got options.
You can 'finish off' with MEP/MEIR/MCC when the market recovers, which means you're a finished pilot with a lead time of a month instead of 18 months. In the meantime, become an FI or an Uber driver...