Career advice for Pilots..

[Flying Clog]

To anyone who has entered into a flying career since 2010, or any pilot that has less than 5 years on a loco seniority list or 10-15 years on a legacy seniority list;

I think it's time to wake up. You will likely never see the inside of a flight deck again.

The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019.

The UK and Europe are propping up employers, pilots, and airlines with up to 80% and 90% pay up to a certain amount. But that's obviously not going to play out well if there is a 50% contraction of the industry for the foreseeable future. Completely unsustainable and ridiculous.

So you must take the time now to learn another trade. Do an online university degree. Use your time now, preferably to get yourself into a semi recession proof trade or skill.

All the best and fingers crossed for all of us,

FC

[Bloated Stomach]

Can you send me this weekend Euro numbers as well please. Cheers

[Riskybis]

To anyone who has entered into a flying career since 2010, or any pilot that has less than 5 years on a loco seniority list or 10-15 years on a legacy seniority list;

I think it's time to wake up. You will likely never see the inside of a flight deck again.

The aviation sector is going to contract by 50% for at least the next 5-10 years, and will never, in our lifetimes, recover to the dizzy heights of 2019.

The UK and Europe are propping up employers, pilots, and airlines with up to 80% and 90% pay up to a certain amount. But that's obviously not going to play out well if there is a 50% contraction of the industry for the foreseeable future. Completely unsustainable and ridiculous.

So you must take the time now to learn another trade. Do an online university degree. Use your time now, preferably to get yourself into a semi recession proof trade or skill.

All the best and fingers crossed for all of us,

FC


love people like you ! I give it 5 years and it will all be back to normal probably even busier

[Flying Clog]

I'd sooner spend my money on some sort of online course, while I'm on unpaid airline leave, than the lotto thanks.

Thanks for the sarky response though.

[Flying Clog]

Excellent, I hope you're right!

Probably not though. Plan accordingly.

[flocci_non_faccio]

I think this will prove to be absolutely spot on. Many of us have done our last ever flights in the past week or so.
There are lots of heads in the sand.

[Flying Clog]

Just please take our advice, from the relatively old hands who've been flying since the 90s - we've seen SARS, 9/11, the GFC etc, and this is about 10 times worse than all those pesky ones rolled into one.

Let's keep our fingers crossed, great, we all are in this sector. BUT, take your time off now to learn another skill or trade. Whether that be brick laying, or rocket science. Preferably something recession proof.

[Livesinafield]

Regardless of how this pans out, its not a bad idea using your off time to get another skill/trade as a back up anyway. I flew with many fairly new Fo's over the last few years that are new to the industry and countless times I explained that how it is now is not the norm and it won't last and something will crash the industry as its so fragile and here we are...chaos, I want to be optimistic and it will recover again everything does its part of the cycle of everything over decades, but will it return to the same ? Probably not, and the new guys new to the game will be at the bottom of a long list of very experienced guys, ask anyone who flew through the 2008 onward era

Bets of luck to all of us

[Commander Taco]

I’m with Riskybis. The number of “end-of-days” pronouncements I’ve heard in a career that started in 1974.....I remember circa 1988 operating a flight as a B727 F/O. We had a young guy, who had just been to his pilot interview with us, ask the captain if he could ride the flight deck with us. After we finished the round of introductions, the very first question the captain asked was: “Why would you want to come with a dying airline”.

That same interviewee has himself been a captain for close to 20 years and is currently a very senior B787 captain. Yes, this one is very bad, but it too shall pass.

’Taco

[flocci_non_faccio]

The only way NONE of us ever fly again is if they find out that Covid 19 is actually caused by prolonged aircraft cabin air exposure.

I don't think anybody is saying none of us will ever fly again. Unfortunately though, many pilots ARE going to lose their jobs, and a very sizeable proportion will never fly again. I don't see any reason airlines in Europe will have to recruit again before 2030.

[ATC Watcher]

Well nobody can predict (yet) how this will play out a year from now. But I very much doubt it will be business as usual.
Even if the supply is back in at a flip of a coin , the demand might not be there anymore. If the web-based meeting systems works well , and environment/climate change continues to become a major issue, it might take a while for the passengers to come back to fill airplanes again .
Not to mention a likely economic recession if this thing last more than a few months ..
Learning a new trade for young F/Os is not a bad idea., would it be only to bridge the gap until or if it picks up again....
But OK, just saying, ..See you back here in 2-3 months ..

[Less Hair]

Look how the industry recovered after 9-11. It will come back including this time. Well not every airline. But people want and need to travel. And then pilots will be needed again.
How long this all takes? Nobody knows.

[Whitemonk Returns]

Ignoring the nonsensical scare mongering above, and as someone who works for a large UK airline I can assure you recruitment will start in some capacity 1 month after all this blows over. How do I know this, because any large airline has a recruitment department that by its very nature has basically one job to do. While learning a new trade is always a good idea, can anyone explain how you are going to learn a trade at the moment? Unless it is a trade you can do from your laptop, or still live with your parents, one of which has a trade they can teach you from their own house? Never mind the fact you will struggle to find a suppliers shop open right now to do anything. Stop panicking, wash your hands, spend quality time with your loved ones and get ready to kick ass when this is all over. I'm done!

[fastidious bob]

Chinese airlines are up to 90% capacity already (short haul). It’s only been three months. This is not like 9/11. Seeing aircraft being flown into buildings made people extremely nervous about flying. Although the COVID19 crisis is acute, it will not be long lasting in my opinion. Oil prices are rock bottom, and people need to travel. I predict 6 months until the recovery begins.

[flocci_non_faccio]

can anyone explain how you are going to learn a trade at the moment?

Absolutely agree. A large number of pilots, myself included, are going to be forced into taking any job going just to pay the bills. It is unlikely that many will have the time or money to commit to undertaking a university degree to retrain, and realistically entering another profession is the only way we're likely to achieve even a reasonable fraction of our current salaries. Because I already did a degree twenty years ago I'm not entitled to further student funding but unfortunately my degree is utterly useless as a back up plan because it is so out of date that I'd be better off not having it at all.

When the inevitable happens and I lose my job in the coming weeks, my future "career" probably involves stacking shelves in a supermarket until I retire, but of course with no chance of building a decent pension I'm unlikely to be in a position to retire, so more likely stacking shelves until I drop. We deliberately didn't overstretch ourselves when buying a house because I wanted to be able to pay the mortgage on an FO salary; naively I assumed that given the length of time I've been in the industry, the likely worst case scenario was being forced into taking a demotion and the associated paycut. Instead, we're looking forward to trying to pay the mortgage with me on minimum wage at best.

We shouldn't delude ourselves that we have any useful transferrable skills to offer employers in other sectors. Getting another flying job in the (distant) future is likely to prove an impossible task for many. Ratings will have lapsed, skills and knowledge atrophied. I don't see a reason for any positivity as an airline pilot right now.

[fastidious bob]

Absolutely agree. A large number of pilots, myself included, are going to be forced into taking any job going just to pay the bills. It is unlikely that many will have the time or money to commit to undertaking a university degree to retrain, and realistically entering another profession is the only way we're likely to achieve even a reasonable fraction of our current salaries. Because I already did a degree twenty years ago I'm not entitled to further student funding but unfortunately my degree is utterly useless as a back up plan because it is so out of date that I'd be better off not having it at all.

When the inevitable happens and I lose my job in the coming weeks, my future "career" probably involves stacking shelves in a supermarket until I retire, but of course with no chance of building a decent pension I'm unlikely to be in a position to retire, so more likely stacking shelves until I drop. We deliberately didn't overstretch ourselves when buying a house because I wanted to be able to pay the mortgage on an FO salary; naively I assumed that given the length of time I've been in the industry, the likely worst case scenario was being forced into taking a demotion and the associated paycut. Instead, we're looking forward to trying to pay the mortgage with me on minimum wage at best.

We shouldn't delude ourselves that we have any useful transferrable skills to offer employers in other sectors. Getting another flying job in the (distant) future is likely to prove an impossible task for many. Ratings will have lapsed, skills and knowledge atrophied. I don't see a reason for any positivity as an airline pilot right now.

I understand people are concerned, but don’t blow it out of proportion. I’ve been an airline pilot for 20 years, and survived many career ending events, but always managed to be in work. I’m not down playing COVID19, but if I was a betting man, I’d give it six months and the recovery will begin.

[Flying Clog]

Fantastic fastidious bob, I hope you're right. But we ALL need to be working on plan B right now. And not hoping that things will be just fine in 3-6 months.

I'm currently doing an online course, you all should be too.

And I'm an 18 year 747 captain with a legacy airline which has allegedly got VERY deep pockets.. But who knows what's going to happen right?

Use your time wisely.

[cabbages]

'Chinese airlines are already up to 90% capacity...……..'

As is always the case with China, everything is not quite as it appears. The increase in seat capacity has been ordered by the Chinese Communist Party and is not a result of passenger demand, despite massive government subsidies on ticket prices. If that 90% figure is an accurate quote from the Chinese regulator, then it has been artificially manufactured purely for propaganda.

[fastidious bob]

'Chinese airlines are already up to 90% capacity...……..'

As is always the case with China, everything is not quite as it appears. The increase in seat capacity has been ordered by the Chinese Communist Party and is not a result of passenger demand, despite massive government subsidies on ticket prices. If that 90% figure is an accurate quote from the Chinese regulator, then it has been artificially manufactured purely for propaganda.

is that Chinese whispers?

[Flying Clog]

I've been chatting to my mates from back in the UK days, now that I've got so much time on my hands, who are a having a right old knees up on the Wirral, up in the Dales, in the Alps, and on the Costa. All of them on the piss. Enjoying their time off with their friends when they should be doing an online course in taxidermy or whatever suits your fancy!

But the impression that I get is they've all got their blinkers on with the 80/90% government bail outs, which isn't going to last more than a few months. And then bang.

[Banana Joe]

So what degree would you suggest?

[Flying Clog]

I would say IT or an Engineering degree.

[JustinHeywood]

'Chinese airlines are already up to 90% capacity...……..'

As is always the case with China, everything is not quite as it appears. The increase in seat capacity has been ordered by the Chinese Communist Party and is not a result of passenger demand, despite massive government subsidies on ticket prices. If that 90% figure is an accurate quote from the Chinese regulator, then it has been artificially manufactured purely for propaganda.

so..., the Chinese airlines story is not true, and if it is true then it’s still not true, cos YOU know we’re all doomed.

Covid is undoubtedly a global catastrophe, but NOBODY knows how it will play out. It virtually came out of nowhere, and the severity and longevity of its effects are unknowns.

I’m not sure what the doomsayers are trying to achieve with posts like this, but they add nothing to the crisis or it’s solution.

[Flying Clog]

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Chinese are laying on flights to make FR24 look a bit lively, and boost the economy with some empty flights knocking about, but who cares?

The point I'm trying to make is most of us who aren't relatively senior in their legacy or loco airlines should be using their time wisely.

[Spunky Monkey]

Could I put a different point of view, that might help.

On 11 Sept 2001 I was studying for my ATPLs having just resigned my Military Commission. I was sat in a classroom with other students when the horrific news came in. Driving home that night I thought the aviation business was finished and I would never get a flying job.

I set up a small business the next day, which grew and I still run to this day.

However I made a big mistake, the aviation business was not done for, infact it probably had the greatest rise ever from there. I was on the outside looking in and due to the growth of my business I couldn't leave. Eventually it grew large enough to employ managers and I started my career as an FO. Only 2 years later to hit a proper recession and was made redundant. I went back to my business and grew it.

Late last year I started applying for jobs again and was hoping to start in May!

Business is cyclical, you can stare at your navel and wonder why me, or you can batten down the hatches, cut costs and ride out the storm. Because it will come back. The Proles want holidays to the sun, a lot of business is still face to face and there is too much money involved for aviation not to recover.


There are a lot of people who after this will be so looking forward to their summer holiday that as soon as flights start again and countries open their boarders it will be all hands to the pump.

[AIMINGHIGH123]

I would say IT or an Engineering degree.

No, if you want recession proof job.

Accountancy. Doctor probably number 1 but I doubt many have time to retrain for that.

Im banking on things picking up it 6 months. Why?
Governments are pumping all this money in. They wouldn’t be doing it if they thought this would go on for a long time.

[Flying Clog]

Yes, I was going to say Accountancy as well, but 25 years in aviation makes my stomach crawl when it comes to bean counters. But you're not wrong. And most of us 40 year olds are too old to retrain as doctors, even if we weren't thick as planks.

[cabbages]

Calm down dear, I said nothing about being 'doomed'. I offered an opinion about whats happening with domestic flying in China. But thanks for your input, I'm sure we can all rest a lot easier now.

[FLCH]

Burial business never goes out of style.

My wife's ex is in that gig, he works six days a week.

[RexBanner]

If it all goes as bad as you say I wouldn’t put too much faith in your 10-15 years seniority, the courts will tell you LIFO in isolation (as far as Europe goes anyway) is dead in the water as it’s tantamount to age discrimination. Not only that but good luck getting an airline strapped for cash to shoulder the bill of retraining virtually the entirety of their remaining seniority list. What you’ll be seeing is redundancies by fleet and by seat, your position on the overall MSL will be largely irrelevant to this process. It will be dependent where in relation to the rest of the fleet you sit in your respective seat and even then it won’t be pure LIFO as it will have to be done within a matrix that encompasses other criteria.

[cappt]

Clog may be right. I’ve been flying since ‘98 and this time feels different. This morning I rode in back with three other crew members to reposition. This flight had two paying pax and four DHD crew, the crew (myself) have six booked pax for the return flight, of which three may show up. Why are we doing this? The season of 2020 is over. I along with twenty percent of my fellow pilots at our airline will be taking a thirty day leave starting April 1. Good luck everyone.

[ILS27LEFT]

The mother of all Crises...and then the Mother of all the rebounds.
i genuinely believe the rebound will be massive.
A vaccine or new anti viral cure will allow the industry to fully recover.
It will not happen overnight but people will travel again and even more than before Covid19. The world response to new viruses will be completely different in the future, there will be an anti virus global Alliance similar to NATO. This Covid19 will change it all for the better. It is a one off event. The recovery will be massive.

[FE Hoppy]

I've been in the business, first military and them civil since 1989. In all my time i've never felt this negative about the industry. Realistically we are looking at 3 months before internal flights will start and maybe 18 months before a vaccine will allow international travel to open up. Now ask yourself, can my employer bleed cash long enough to exist that long? I understand the LH group is bleeding 1 Billion Euro's a month.

Good luck everyone. See you on the other side.

[giggitygiggity]

I've been in the business, first military and them civil since 1989. In all my time i've never felt this negative about the industry. Realistically we are looking at 3 months before internal flights will start and maybe 18 months before a vaccine will allow international travel to open up. Now ask yourself, can my employer bleed cash long enough to exist that long? I understand the LH group is bleeding 1 million Euro's a month.

Good luck everyone. See you on the other side.

I assume you mean billion, if LH are only losing a million a month then we'll all be fine!

All of them on the piss. Enjoying their time off with their friends

Really? Everyone I know is just staying at home.

[mattyj]

Some people must be the life and soul of the party..
..if they ever get invited to one..

[Kenny]

Mate of mine on a 73 contract in China told me a couple of days ago, that they were planning to be back at 80% but only enough demand for 50%.

[cappt]

So what degree would you suggest?

Health care, nurse, radiology, physical therapy, etc.

[Retired DC9 driver]

I’m with Riskybis. The number of “end-of-days” pronouncements I’ve heard in a career that started in 1974.....I remember circa 1988 operating a flight as a B727 F/O. We had a young guy, who had just been to his pilot interview with us, ask the captain if he could ride the flight deck with us. After we finished the round of introductions, the very first question the captain asked was: “Why would you want to come with a dying airline”.

That same interviewee has himself been a captain for close to 20 years and is currently a very senior B787 captain. Yes, this one is very bad, but it too shall pass.

’Taco
If you are talking about an airline with a leaf on the tail, I just heard they are going ahead with a new-hire course in a month. Someone said a large course..People will need to fly.

[Johnny_56]

The main difference between this catastrophe and many of the others is the speed with which bad news is spreading.

We didn’t have smartphones at hand to pick up 100 times a day to double check how many people were infected. We didn’t have an easy way to access the rumours and predictions of those on PPRUNE.

Perhaps if we did the sky would have fallen harder during SARS/Swine fly/911. Perhaps things will recover like they did after those events.

The response is definitely more severe but hopefully the recovery will be just as effective.

There will still be 7 billion people on the planet and hopefully they will want to go on holidays at some stage.

[Cusco]

So what degree would you suggest?

Forget degrees : London Underground drivers earn a nice little wad, more than many an O’Leary employee for doing a very similar job and getting to sleep in their own bed every night

[marchino61]

Forget degrees : London Underground drivers earn a nice little wad, more than many an O’Leary employee for doing a very similar job and getting to sleep in their own bed every night

How much do they earn? If it's good, I might apply.

[yogi4t4]

If you are talking about an airline with a leaf on the tail, I just heard they are going ahead with a new-hire course in a month. Someone said a large course..People will need to fly.

That definitely won't be happening. They need to cut the flight ops budget by 50% to preserve cash. That direction came from the top!

[dr dre]

Mate of mine on a 73 contract in China told me a couple of days ago, that they were planning to be back at 80% but only enough demand for 50%.

Two months ago China was the virus epicentre and looked like it would implode on itself.

Even if the demand is back up to just 50% after only two months since lockdown then that’s realistically a fair amount.

[mothy1583]

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/500x209/tumblr_meuadalei91qfzgyio1_500_9aae46d6c098b275e624164bec578 4f71d80bdfb.gif

[flocci_non_faccio]

I've been in the business, first military and them civil since 1989. In all my time i've never felt this negative about the industry. Realistically we are looking at 3 months before internal flights will start and maybe 18 months before a vaccine will allow international travel to open up. Now ask yourself, can my employer bleed cash long enough to exist that long? I understand the LH group is bleeding 1 Billion Euro's a month.

Good luck everyone. See you on the other side.

It’s clearly not going to take 18 months for international travel to start again. It will be up and running within a couple of months. The issue is the volume of travel, which isn’t going to be nearly enough to sustain aviation jobs at the level they’re at now.

The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again. Hence, the majority of those about to lose their jobs will never fly again.

[marchino61]

It’s clearly not going to take 18 months for international travel to start again. It will be up and running within a couple of months. The issue is the volume of travel, which isn’t going to be nearly enough to sustain aviation jobs at the level they’re at now.

The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again. Hence, the majority of those about to lose their jobs will never fly again.

A third the size? Not a quarter, nor a half, nor a fifth?

[rigpiggy]

Burial business never goes out of style.

My wife's ex is in that gig, he works six days a week.
FIL passed 1200$ for a cardboard box for the fire. great margins

[RexBanner]

The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again.

If I were a betting man I’d suggest that this quote is going to age really badly. I’m as worried as anyone about job prospects in the near term but this is just absolutely ludicrous.

[Chris2303]

How much do they earn? If it's good, I might apply.

Google is your friend

https://www.aslef.org.uk/article.php?group_id=3449

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/tube-driver-salary-holidays-working-conditions-a3982211.html

[Johnny_56]

Never is a long time

[Mooneyboy]

Fantastic fastidious bob, I hope you're right. But we ALL need to be working on plan B right now. And not hoping that things will be just fine in 3-6 months.

I'm currently doing an online course, you all should be too.

And I'm an 18 year 747 captain with a legacy airline which has allegedly got VERY deep pockets.. But who knows what's going to happen right?

Use your time wisely.

Its tricky knowing what else to do and I’m genuinely trying to rack my brains for a second career.

What online course are you doing? I seen quite a few but always wary if they’re any value or fake.

[Clandestino]

What you’ll be seeing is redundancies by fleet and by seatI do not find the scenario where fleet, seat or seniority is relevant probable.

I I don't see any reason airlines in Europe will have to recruit again before 2030.Methinks the most probable scenario is unprecedented scale recruitment in Europe, including planeloads of DECs, later this year or early next at the latest.

[Herod]

Not of help in the present situation, but. The current lock-down aside, have you ever come across an unemployed plumber or electrician? Yes,I know, it takes an apprenticeship, at least in UK. Apart from events like this, the job is very dependent on things like medicals. I had to retire medically just before turning 58. Luckily the pension kicked in at 60, but that two years was a case of living on savings, and being unable to find a job anywhere. Advice to a young man: train as a plumber/electrician/welder/ heavy-goods driver. Then go fly.

[Mooneyboy]

Not of help in the present situation, but. The current lock-down aside, have you ever come across an unemployed plumber or electrician? Yes,I know, it takes an apprenticeship, at least in UK. Apart from events like this, the job is very dependent on things like medicals. I had to retire medically just before turning 58. Luckily the pension kicked in at 60, but that two years was a case of living on savings, and being unable to find a job anywhere. Advice to a young man: train as a plumber/electrician/welder/ heavy-goods driver. Then go fly.

I know an FO whose first career was an HGV driver. He says if you got the right licenses/category there’s plenty of work.

[RexBanner]

I do not find the scenario where fleet, seat or seniority is relevant probable.

But you do find probable a scenario where a company thats having to make large scale redundancies because they’re running out of money make available a vast sum of time and money to retrain their remaining pilots onto new fleets (because they’ve just indiscriminately chopped let’s say the bottom 50% of their seniority list without regard to the numbers left on each fleet)? Not happening, see Flybe in 2013 for the answer to that one.

Or are you saying there won’t be any redundancies? An optimistic outlook which I like but not necessarily the most realistic if this thing goes on for months like it’s predicted to. I take no pleasure in this, I’m one of the ones right in the firing line.

[GS-Alpha]

If this virus completely went away tomorrow, what position would the global economy and airlines be in? If no lock downs or government economic intervention or virus spread suppression occurred, and no vaccine was ever found, what position would the global economy or airlines be in? Neither of these two extremes are likely to happen, but how close to either extreme is history going to record? Nobody knows! We can either be pessimistic for the future, or we can be optimistic. I knew back in January that we would arrive at the position we see ourselves in today, because whilst I saw China doing an amazing job, the rest of the world was not taking the situation seriously enough. Most people I spoke to, thought I was being incredibly pessimistic, but I was just being a realist. (I bet the world’s leaders are wishing they had immediately shut down all travel out of China and had traced and tested every individual who had travelled out the previous month; a massive undertaking which complacency at the time, deemed to be an over the top reaction. Now look where we are? I doubt they will make that mistake again).

However, I am optimistic that we can control this pandemic to quite a large extent, even before a vaccine comes along. Antigen and antibody testing does not require anything like the testing of vaccines, and as they soon become readily available, they will be very important tools to help us suppress the spread of the virus. The need to recover the economy ASAP is leading to a lot of money being being thrown at research and innovation to combat the effects of this virus, (and that learning will also be incredibly useful for the inevitable next virus to come along).

So whilst I agree this pandemic does have the potential to become the aviation game-changer being suggested here, (and I believe things are going to get a lot worse over the next month and lead to far more popular belief that this will indeed be the case), I am confident that the science will rapidly evolve, enabling us to move further away from the disastrous end of the spectrum of possibilities, and much closer to the more optimistic end. The possibilities for the economy follow a similar spectrum. The governments of the world are giving the science more time by pumping large amounts of money into the economy. The overall outcome will depend on how much time the science requires. That is pure guesswork at the moment, but I for one am choosing to remain optimistic.

[torvalds]

Its tricky knowing what else to do and I’m genuinely trying to rack my brains for a second career.

What online course are you doing? I seen quite a few but always wary if they’re any value or fake.
I have never done an online course, but also have never met a software engineer who did. I say for sure, don't waste time and money on any of the "IT" courses. All of them are worthless (don't know about others but suspect to be a similar case). It's kinda logical, if many training organization offers it and it can be done by watching videos and slide shows, then probably it is only good for flooding the market with "certificates".

[Doors to Automatic]

I retired from the industry last Summer after 25 years as an airline economist. I spent most of that time working with airports providing them with data and advice on attracting new routes and understanding the performance of their existing networks. Here is my take:

I think this crisis is by far the worst the industry has seen in its 70 year or so history. Short of a nuclear war, it is hard to imagine what other scenario would result in the shutdown of virtually the entire industry for an undetermined time but likely to be at least two months.

9/11 was a tremendous shock, yes, but this is on a completely different scale. Back in 2001 the timing, leading into the low season accelerated the demise of many inefficient carriers that had been teetering on the brink for some time. The low cost revolution was just beginning and the event seemed to prime the market further for the explosive growth which began the following year. By the Spring of 2002, with no further attacks, people started flying again in droves, demand stimulated by the low fares, especially in Europe and by 2003 the LC industry was booming.

Similarly people still flew during the global financial crash, and although demand (and capacity) dropped, airlines still had cash-flow and the efficient ones were able to ride the storm. Again, the worst hit in the Autumn of 2008 so the Summers of 2008 and 2009 were still able to generate some profit.

This is different. We don’t know when flying will begin again, and when it does, which will either be in June or July, the forward bookings for the lucrative Summer season will not be there. People will still be reluctant to travel because of the virus and many will be tightening their belts in the face of a recession whose depth or duration no one will know at that point. This is the time when airlines drive yield which gives them two months of exceptional profitability which essentially pays for the rest of the year. Without it next Winter will be brutally tough.

So we have a situation that is at least as big as 9/11 and the crash combined, with worst possible timing added in.

I think we will see capacity cuts of 30-40% but possibly higher this Summer. Next Winter will be dire and the recovery will only begin a year from now. I think most airlines will lose money until 2022.

My prediction is that it will be at least 2-3 years but possibly more before capacity returns to pre-virus levels. Much will depend on how quickly the recession is over and how deep it ends up being.

Yes, the industry will recover but it will be in years, not months.

[733driver]

I retired from the industry last Summer after 25 years as an airline economist. I spent most of that time working with airports providing them with data and advice on attracting new routes and understanding the performance of their existing networks. Here is my take:

I think this crisis is by far the worst the industry has seen in its 70 year or so history. Short of a nuclear war, it is hard to imagine what other scenario would result in the shutdown of virtually the entire industry for an undetermined time but likely to be at least two months.

9/11 was a tremendous shock, yes, but this is on a completely different scale. Back in 2001 the timing, leading into the low season accelerated the demise of many inefficient carriers that had been teetering on the brink for some time. The low cost revolution was just beginning and the event seemed to prime the market further for the explosive growth which began the following year. By the Spring of 2002, with no further attacks, people started flying again in droves, demand stimulated by the low fares, especially in Europe and by 2003 the LC industry was booming.

Similarly people still flew during the global financial crash, and although demand (and capacity) dropped, airlines still had cash-flow and the efficient ones were able to ride the storm. Again, the worst hit in the Autumn of 2008 so the Summers of 2008 and 2009 were still able to generate some profit.

This is different. We don’t know when flying will begin again, and when it does, which will either be in June or July, the forward bookings for the lucrative Summer season will not be there. People will still be reluctant to travel because of the virus and many will be tightening their belts in the face of a recession whose depth or duration no one will know at that point. This is the time when airlines drive yield which gives them two months of exceptional profitability which essentially pays for the rest of the year. Without it next Winter will be brutally tough.

So we have a situation that is at least as big as 9/11 and the crash combined, with worst possible timing added in.

I think we will see capacity cuts of 30-40% but possibly higher this Summer. Next Winter will be dire and the recovery will only begin a year from now. I think most airlines will lose money until 2022.

My prediction is that it will be at least 2-3 years but possibly more before capacity returns to pre-virus levels. Much will depend on how quickly the recession is over and how deep it ends up being.

Yes, the industry will recover but it will be in years, not months.

That seems like a well-reasoned analysis to me.

[torvalds]

If this virus completely went away tomorrow, what position would the global economy and airlines be in? If no lock downs or government economic intervention or virus spread suppression occurred, and no vaccine was ever found, what position would the global economy or airlines be in? Neither of these two extremes are likely to happen, but how close to either extreme is history going to record? Nobody knows! We can either be pessimistic for the future, or we can be optimistic. I knew back in January that we would arrive at the position we see ourselves in today, because whilst I saw China doing an amazing job, the rest of the world was not taking the situation seriously enough. Most people I spoke to, thought I was being incredibly pessimistic, but I was just being a realist. (I bet the world’s leaders are wishing they had immediately shut down all travel out of China and had traced and tested every individual who had travelled out the previous month; a massive undertaking which complacency at the time, deemed to be an over the top reaction. Now look where we are? I doubt they will make that mistake again).

However, I am optimistic that we can control this pandemic to quite a large extent, even before a vaccine comes along. Antigen and antibody testing does not require anything like the testing of vaccines, and as they soon become readily available, they will be very important tools to help us suppress the spread of the virus. The need to recover the economy ASAP is leading to a lot of money being being thrown at research and innovation to combat the effects of this virus, (and that learning will also be incredibly useful for the inevitable next virus to come along).

So whilst I agree this pandemic does have the potential to become the aviation game-changer being suggested here, (and I believe things are going to get a lot worse over the next month and lead to far more popular belief that this will indeed be the case), I am confident that the science will rapidly evolve, enabling us to move further away from the disastrous end of the spectrum of possibilities, and much closer to the more optimistic end. The possibilities for the economy follow a similar spectrum. The governments of the world are giving the science more time by pumping large amounts of money into the economy. The overall outcome will depend on how much time the science requires. That is pure guesswork at the moment, but I for one am choosing to remain optimistic.

Naturally everyone wants to get back on their feet right after they fell and without much delay. Even after getting wounded the adrenaline kicks in, but then again, so as reality.

[Less Hair]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kH9vOLOF3x8

[Olympia463]

I can sympathise with the people on here. I was made redundant twice in my career. I am a professional mechanical engineer, trained by Rolls-Royce, with a First Class Honours degree. I changed jobs seven times in a 40 year career, mainly on promotion, and was twice head hunted. I never made money, like you chaps at the sharp end of an aeroplane, but I did, quite early on, save enough to keep a year's pay in a separate account. That turned out to be a good idea,

I wanted to be a pilot, but didn't get into the Glasgow UAS (my legs were too long for the Harvards they flew!) and the chit I was given on being turned down, which might have taken me to Cranwell on a three year commission in the RAF when called up for NS, was useless, as I became an aircraft engine designer at R-R (Conway and RB 211) and was thus permanently exempt. So I had to learn to fly at my own expense later when I could afford the time and money. I agree that training as a plumber or electrician, if you can manage it, would be a good line of business as some of my friends do that and they earn more than I ever did. I think the advice to have an alternate career before training as an airline pilot might be sound in these days. Do airlines not prefer trainees with degrees in science or engineering these days anyway? I ought to mention that my career spanned all the way from railway locomotives to laser guidance for bombs. If you choose mechanical engineering you do widen your prospects!

[Snr]

I retired from the industry last Summer after 25 years as an airline economist. I spent most of that time working with airports providing them with data and advice on attracting new routes and understanding the performance of their existing networks. Here is my take:

I think this crisis is by far the worst the industry has seen in its 70 year or so history. Short of a nuclear war, it is hard to imagine what other scenario would result in the shutdown of virtually the entire industry for an undetermined time but likely to be at least two months.

9/11 was a tremendous shock, yes, but this is on a completely different scale. Back in 2001 the timing, leading into the low season accelerated the demise of many inefficient carriers that had been teetering on the brink for some time. The low cost revolution was just beginning and the event seemed to prime the market further for the explosive growth which began the following year. By the Spring of 2002, with no further attacks, people started flying again in droves, demand stimulated by the low fares, especially in Europe and by 2003 the LC industry was booming.

Similarly people still flew during the global financial crash, and although demand (and capacity) dropped, airlines still had cash-flow and the efficient ones were able to ride the storm. Again, the worst hit in the Autumn of 2008 so the Summers of 2008 and 2009 were still able to generate some profit.

This is different. We don’t know when flying will begin again, and when it does, which will either be in June or July, the forward bookings for the lucrative Summer season will not be there. People will still be reluctant to travel because of the virus and many will be tightening their belts in the face of a recession whose depth or duration no one will know at that point. This is the time when airlines drive yield which gives them two months of exceptional profitability which essentially pays for the rest of the year. Without it next Winter will be brutally tough.

So we have a situation that is at least as big as 9/11 and the crash combined, with worst possible timing added in.

I think we will see capacity cuts of 30-40% but possibly higher this Summer. Next Winter will be dire and the recovery will only begin a year from now. I think most airlines will lose money until 2022.

My prediction is that it will be at least 2-3 years but possibly more before capacity returns to pre-virus levels. Much will depend on how quickly the recession is over and how deep it ends up being.

Yes, the industry will recover but it will be in years, not months.


I agree, a well reasoned argument, however with one missing viewpoint. When this dies down, be it mid-summer, or late autumn, many billions of people around the world will have been in isolation for months. The majority of those will probably still have jobs to go back to (due to various unprecedented stimulus packages from governments), will have been getting paid while sitting at home (the UK's 80% salary Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being an example), and not have spent a penny on anything other than food and utilities. They'll be desperate to fly - whether to get some sun, or to visit family they haven't seen for months.

Add to that the fact that every major event has been postponed from the first half of 2020, but still planned to go ahead, the economic rebound will be huge. The Olympics, Formula 1, football, rugby, music events, business conferences, all taking place over the course of the following year.

Naturally it goes without saying that this is all conjecture - it could go either way, this is just the optimistic view of one pilot currently sitting on their couch.

[cats_five]

Not of help in the present situation, but. The current lock-down aside, have you ever come across an unemployed plumber or electrician? Yes,I know, it takes an apprenticeship, at least in UK. Apart from events like this, the job is very dependent on things like medicals. I had to retire medically just before turning 58. Luckily the pension kicked in at 60, but that two years was a case of living on savings, and being unable to find a job anywhere. Advice to a young man: train as a plumber/electrician/welder/ heavy-goods driver. Then go fly.

Plumber, electrician, gas fitter, welder, joiner, car mechanic all good. The problem with being an HGV driver is that a medical issue as a pilot might be one as a driver as well.

[torvalds]

I agree, a well reasoned argument, however with one missing viewpoint. When this dies down, be it mid-summer, or late autumn, many billions of people around the world will have been in isolation for months. The majority of those will probably still have jobs to go back to (due to various unprecedented stimulus packages from governments), will have been getting paid while sitting at home (the UK's 80% salary Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being an example), and not have spent a penny on anything other than food and utilities. They'll be desperate to fly - whether to get some sun, or to visit family they haven't seen for months.

Add to that the fact that every major event has been postponed from the first half of 2020, but still planned to go ahead, the economic rebound will be huge. The Olympics, Formula 1, football, rugby, music events, business conferences, all taking place over the course of the following year.

Naturally it goes without saying that this is all conjecture - it could go either way, this is just the optimistic view of one pilot currently sitting on their couch.

Makes me wonder why do we ever resort to austerity and why can't we just get rid of poverty once and for all? Just imagine, if the governments can "give" unlimited free money to spend, then we could have an even bigger economy already and would be better prepared when the ****e hits the fan. This is a no-brainer. We have the wrong set of decision makers in power.
I am convinced now, just sit tight and wait it out. Not even the sky will be the limit. Spend quality time with your loved ones and don't worry about a thing. Imagine it is a bad dream or you are on a holiday and the weather turned bad.

I agree though, most of the skilled labour type jobs are probably a good choice (if you give a toss)

[lederhosen]

I do not find the scenario where fleet, seat or seniority is relevant probable.

Methinks the most probable scenario is unprecedented scale recruitment in Europe, including planeloads of DECs, later this year or early next at the latest.

I don't always agree with Clandestino, but in this case I think there is certainly a possible scenario, where there is a massive shuffling of the cards and existing or quite probably new airlines hire a lot of qualified people including some currently working in Turkey, China, the Middle East etc. Some older pilots in previously gold plated jobs when faced with new perhaps less attractive conditions will choose to retire. The overall market may take a while to return to current levels, but generally after a big downturn like the oil crisis, the gulf war, twin towers, 2008 financial crisis etc. things recovered quicker than was expected at the time. Of course the pandemic is different and we don't know for sure what the consequences will be like medium term. If it mutates, immunity does not develop and it carries on over several years like the flu of 1918 then we could get to the situation described by the thread starter. But if that is the case then we probably all have more to worry about than not having a job. I remain so far more optimistic.

[thetimesreader84]

A small little point of data on a massive field, but the local radio station has been running a competition - when a particular song plays, phone in, caller 100 (or whatever) wins £1000.

When the DJ asks what the lucky winners are going to spend it on, every answer has been “A holiday, as soon as this is done”.

The demand will be there, just as soon as these lockdowns are over. People don’t just forget 15+ years of cheap city breaks and weeks in the sun.

[torvalds]

A small little point of data on a massive field, but the local radio station has been running a competition - when a particular song plays, phone in, caller 100 (or whatever) wins £1000.

When the DJ asks what the lucky winners are going to spend it on, every answer has been “A holiday, as soon as this is done”.

The demand will be there, just as soon as these lockdowns are over. People don’t just forget 15+ years of cheap city breaks and weeks in the sun.

It is the sixth day of the restrictions and pretty much all paid for by the "free" money flow. Unlimited QE's, trillions of "stimulus", etc. Wait a bit after the free money river dries up and count again the number of upbeat "spend on a holiday" callers, or if the radio show still offers the prize (shows need advertisement to pay for their airtime, no working economy => no revenue => no production to broadcast).
I really doubt that any sane person would argue the fact, if it was a short term crisis, then it wont have much impact at all. However, we don't know. The caller didn't know it either, only noticed the withdrawal signs of "living beyond his means".
Absolutely agree with your other point though, people are addicted to the current system and wont let it go easily. They need their SUV's, the holidays and all the other perks coming with the debt based society.

[CDRW]

From the very first post by Flying Clog.
"To anyone who has entered into a flying career since 2010, or any pilot that has less than 5 years on a loco seniority list or 10-15 years on a legacy seniority list;

I think it's time to wake up. You will likely never see the inside of a flight deck again."

I tried to read all the posts so I might be repeating. 30 years airline expat flying. Two gulf wars, 9-11, SARS, GFC. Have been around for a while. To put it politely, I think that very first post is utter rubbish. Doomsday mumbo jumbo.

June or July the recovery will begin, and when a vaccine is found, hold onto your aviation hats!

Well that's my 5 cents worth.

[sonicbum]

I agree, a well reasoned argument, however with one missing viewpoint. When this dies down, be it mid-summer, or late autumn, many billions of people around the world will have been in isolation for months. The majority of those will probably still have jobs to go back to (due to various unprecedented stimulus packages from governments), will have been getting paid while sitting at home (the UK's 80% salary Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being an example), and not have spent a penny on anything other than food and utilities. They'll be desperate to fly - whether to get some sun, or to visit family they haven't seen for months.

Add to that the fact that every major event has been postponed from the first half of 2020, but still planned to go ahead, the economic rebound will be huge. The Olympics, Formula 1, football, rugby, music events, business conferences, all taking place over the course of the following year.

Naturally it goes without saying that this is all conjecture - it could go either way, this is just the optimistic view of one pilot currently sitting on their couch.

Respectfully disagree. A pandemic is not something You turn off using a switch unfortunately. Leisure travel will be almost non existent till there will be a vaccine on the market or a highly effective cure. Once all the different countries will be through their worst moment in terms of new cases, they will slooowly start to resume daily life activities with highly stringent measures but opening up boundaries for leisures travellers will be the last priority to avoid a new increment in active cases. IMHO, according to what is available to be read on the web, every country will have to sort it out first before any further "mix" can occur, and this will take a long time. I believe that if we are really lucky we will see some leisure travel in the summer of 2021. I would love to be proven wrong, and I hope it happens.

[A320LGW]

It’s clearly not going to take 18 months for international travel to start again. It will be up and running within a couple of months. The issue is the volume of travel, which isn’t going to be nearly enough to sustain aviation jobs at the level they’re at now.

The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again. Hence, the majority of those about to lose their jobs will never fly again.

I see you posting very precise numbers on numerous threads, yet every flying colleague I have the discussion with, some who've been in the business decades and seen it all, have absolutely no clue how we'll come out of this. Your sharp and seemingly certain figures are astounding.

Anyway, my humble opinion is that things will recover and will in time reach pre-covid levels, if not greater. There will be aggressive expansion at some point post all this. (cue cries of the never ending pilot shortage again... all part of the circle of life in this industry)

People are desperate to get away, this clearing will be like the end of a prison sentence for everyone. People will want to travel, you never realise how valuable something in life is until it's gone ... a lot of people are feeling that way. If it is at least managed by June/July, I wouldn't be surprised to find many try to salvage something of a summer holiday in August/September. It of course won't be 100% of what was initially planned, but those fearing blank rosters may have something to at least pay the bills and stay current in an aircraft.

Could we see a busier winter schedule from all those who didn't manage to get away in May/June? Who is to say no for sure? ... there are numerous possibilities, so far any major event has only led to great expansion post event (9/11 etc) ... why will this be any different?

Bottom line is it will recover, precisely at what point we reach pre-covid levels is anyone's guess.

[S speed]

Leave the speculation to the C suite airline exec's and their respective governments, us drivers don't actually know the high level financials of these companies.

Instead of sitting on the couch guessing what will happen, use the time to lose a few of those extra kilos, kick a bad habit and maybe learn something new. Don't spend unnecessarily and plan for the worst possible outcome.

Much more than that is a waste of energy and time.

Edit: if you have the means, consider trying to help those that are really suffering now.

[Driver airframe]

Give it a few months . It will all be back to normal .

[Meester proach]

A lot of the people I fly with at least have a background in IT they can go back to......they hated it so much first time round that they self selected themselves to be pilots but ho hum.

i think the idea you can just retrain is incredibly naive and simplistic. Most captains pay is in line with say, a junior NHS consultant, ie it’s not something you can do a 6 month correspondence course and be back at the pay level you were before.

And if not, do something in demand, like bus driver that requires a bit of training but no rocket science .

the notion bricklaying is recession proof , seems a tad dubious as well

[Clandestino]

I don't always agree with ClandestinoOur agreements are usually product of misunderstanding, the last one being no exception.

But you do find probable a scenario where a company thats having to make large scale redundancies because they’re running out of money make available a vast sum of time and money to retrain their remaining pilots onto new fleets (because they’ve just indiscriminately chopped let’s say the bottom 50% of their seniority list without regard to the numbers left on each fleet)? No, I do not.

Or are you saying there won’t be any redundancies?No. Quite the opposite.

I take no pleasure in this.Neither do I. It's Galgenselbsthumor, rather than Schadenfreude.

If this virus completely went away tomorrow, what position would the global economy and airlines be in?

The global economy? What would that be? The societal system that claims that your food, clothing, shelter, education, vaccine and flight ticket are not worthy having unless those who made or provided it did so at profit? Currently, stockmarkets are fine. There are about three million more Americans filing for unemployment benefits this week than last.

Welcome to meltdown.

[Mikehotel152]

The great unwashed were happy to keep flying until - and after - the lockdown. But for government rules, many aircraft would be flying with good load factors even today. I think the rebound will be very quick. Summer 2021 will see pax levels back up to whatever capacity is left.

[Passenger 99]

I know an FO whose first career was an HGV driver. He says if you got the right licenses/category there’s plenty of work.


I can't stop laughing. The shortage of HGV drivers is a myth. There are plenty of drivers, there just aren't enough prepared to work for peanuts, ie minimum wage AND be treated by everyone like they have just stepped in something nasty. Try looking at a few HGV drivers' fora to see what the job is really like. It wouldn't keep you in peaked caps.

[Laurence25]

Thanks for the heads up. Pretty cool of you to post such impressive insight...

I’m pretty sure this is helping massively with their mental health and focus. Also, I’m pretty sure they’re all aware professional piloting is risky business. Your attitude leads me to believe you’re a semi senior in a national airline? Certainly smells familiar.

i hope you’re having a terrible day.

regards...

ignorantly ignored a lot of the posts before posting my own- 747 captain with 18 years.. so I answered my own question. Retire, pal. Go and spend your life boring the sh!t out of people in your local. I promise, they really won’t give two hoots. Again, I trust you’re having a truly awful day.

[CargoOne]

Yes, I was going to say Accountancy as well

It is rather a bad advise I would say. Mass accounting jobs are under serious pressure for quite some time now due to outsourcing to India and smart technologies are getting smarter all the time, requiring less and less personnel. Financial management and analytics are in better shape for the years to come but it will take 5+ years of getting experience before you can expect a decent job in this field.

[CW247]

What some of you doomsters are not factoring in is that 2020 represents a vastly different social landscape compared to 1929, 1973, 2001 and 2008. Sure we were human then and we're still human now with the same basic needs, but those experiences have made us stronger and more resilient. We are more resilient to and more accepting of debt now. We are less accepting of a poor outlook in life. It is this attitude which sets us on course for the stars. We simply know no other way of making a living other than the way in which we do now. In 1929, the average person was as qualified as their parents and children, and society offered nothing by way of innovation and advance in understanding of science/tech.

The present generation of 'doers' (I guess not you 60+ types) know and understand that our prosperity lies in a quick recovery. We would therefore do anything we can to bring that about to make our lives easier and prosperous. Regarding QE, if we can have a monetary system based on fiat currency and fractional reserve lending (i.e. fake numbers on a screen), then why should the fixing/patching of such a monetary system be any more real? QE creates inflation, but clever accounting by the central banks can "fix" that too. Watch this video, and gasp:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kCIoq5F7O4

[lucille]

There’s only one variable which will effect the speed of recovery of this industry: Widespread immunity from this virus. Either acquired via having recovered from an infection or by application of a vaccine.

As for acquired immunity? Presently it’s the best kept secret - no where is there even educated speculation on whether it exists or not. And the vaccine? I’m reading it’s two years away.

While the global population remains susceptible to being infected there will be lockdowns, border controls etc none of which is good for the airline business.

[procede]

There’s only one variable which will effect the speed of recovery of this industry: Widespread immunity from this virus. Either acquired via having recovered from an infection or by application of a vaccine.

And then the virus is also mutating, so there might be a new form for which the immunity is different...

[torvalds]

What some of you doomsters are not factoring in is that 2020 represents a vastly different social landscape compared to 1929, 1973, 2001 and 2008. Sure we were human then and we're still human now with the same basic needs, but those experiences have made us stronger and more resilient. We are more resilient to and more accepting of debt now. We are less accepting of a poor outlook in life. It is this attitude which sets us on course for the stars. We simply know no other way of making a living other than the way in which we do now. In 1929, the average person was as qualified as their parents and children, and society offered nothing by way of innovation and advance in understanding of science/tech.

The present generation of 'doers' (I guess not you 60+ types) know and understand that our prosperity lies in a quick recovery. We would therefore do anything we can to bring that about to make our lives easier and prosperous. Regarding QE, if we can have a monetary system based on fiat currency and fractional reserve lending (i.e. fake numbers on a screen), then why should the fixing/patching of such a monetary system be any more real? QE creates inflation, but clever accounting by the central banks can "fix" that too. Watch this video, and gasp:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kCIoq5F7O4

What's a couple of trillion between friends. C'mon you can't be that illiberal. Only few years before that we didn't care about the trillions disappeared from the defence budget either, so why would it count.
Just keep the party going and the peasants wont notice a thing.
I think it's time to let it go. And at any rate, it is an ancient history (2008). Didn't you hear that a (who cares) "singer" married some hillbilly "lady" yesterday and they spend their honeymoon in Wuhan? Now, there, there, back to the program.

[NoelEvans]

Career advice for Pilots..
Cargo ... ... ... ...

[FlyingStone]

Cargo ... ... ... ...

Cargo has been in decline for more than a decade. I doubt the current demand will last a long time.

[Herod]

Divorce Lawyer? I know, it needs training, but Marriage Counselor doesn't (at least in UK) and will be in BIG demand.

[jan99]

With respect to a return to a semblance of 'normal': not until we get widespread testing for both antigens and antibodies that puts people in one of three groups: 1. immune, 2. sick or carrier, 3. 'virginal'. Wait for that to develop. Looks like months at present.

[Falling_Penguin]

My old Nan used to say: "Misery loves company". I always wondered about that but reading most of the contributions on this thread I am starting to see what she meant...

[finestkind]

Interesting conversation. 1999/2000, if I remember correctly, had an article in one of the aviation magazines on the shortage of pilots and the safety issue associated with this. Where once you needed X amount of hours PIC to be looked at by the commercial airlines this had drastically reduced over the preceding years causing concerns about the safety in the cockpit. This was due to inexperience, particularly in the regionals due to rapid promotion of F/O to fill the seat left vacant of those leaving on min hours to the biggies. 9/11 appeared to solve that problem for a few years. So will this current situation put a brake on the recruitment situation, undoubtedly. The other part of the equation, as mentioned by a few, is the economic situation. After lifting of restriction many people will remain unemployed. They will not be able to afford to fly (even on credit as most people appear to live on). Those that still have employment will not have any leave so no holidays for possibly in excess of 12 months. Business’ with what was once a requirement for face to face dealings probably found during this time that business could be conducted without face to face dealings.



What I am implying is that it is unlikely that aviation will return to “normal” in a short period of time. Just as many business will not reopen their doors it is unlikely that aviation will return to pre virus status within months. I do not see an airline holding onto personnel for months nor personnel hanging in limbo for months without an income.



Best of luck to you all.

[Sholayo]

I would say IT or an Engineering degree.

I am afraid that by the time you get that 'IT or Engineering degree' airlines will hire again.
With all respect, earning degree in the above would take you longer than it would take me to get through Integrated ATPL. The latter is more expensive of course, but you need solid 2-3 years of study to get the the level anyone would like to hire you. Yes, it is easier to get an interview, but after 18 moths of online courses your salary would match FA and not FO level ;)

&

[torvalds]

Interesting conversation. 1999/2000, if I remember correctly, had an article in one of the aviation magazines on the shortage of pilots and the safety issue associated with this. Where once you needed X amount of hours PIC to be looked at by the commercial airlines this had drastically reduced over the preceding years causing concerns about the safety in the cockpit. This was due to inexperience, particularly in the regionals due to rapid promotion of F/O to fill the seat left vacant of those leaving on min hours to the biggies. 9/11 appeared to solve that problem for a few years. So will this current situation put a brake on the recruitment situation, undoubtedly. The other part of the equation, as mentioned by a few, is the economic situation. After lifting of restriction many people will remain unemployed. They will not be able to afford to fly (even on credit as most people appear to live on). Those that still have employment will not have any leave so no holidays for possibly in excess of 12 months. Business’ with what was once a requirement for face to face dealings probably found during this time that business could be conducted without face to face dealings.



What I am implying is that it is unlikely that aviation will return to “normal” in a short period of time. Just as many business will not reopen their doors it is unlikely that aviation will return to pre virus status within months. I do not see an airline holding onto personnel for months nor personnel hanging in limbo for months without an income.



Best of luck to you all.

Was there an increase in accidents and incidents after the PIC hour regulation's change?
Could anyone please point me to a research on this subject?

[PeterWeb]

There’s only one variable which will effect the speed of recovery of this industry: Widespread immunity from this virus. Either acquired via having recovered from an infection or by application of a vaccine.


Agreed, that's the main variable. But we'll also be influenced by firmer infection fatality rate figures if they turn out to be significantly lower than current estimates. We will likely also be influenced by improved prevention and treatment strategies, and for sure the threat level felt by a 20 year old is already vastly different to that felt by a 70 year old.

Remember, economies like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have not shut down completely to tame this virus - there may be ways it can be either greatly suppressed or potentially lived with, even in closer-contact situations like an airplane.


As for acquired immunity? Presently it’s the best kept secret - no where is there even educated speculation on whether it exists or not. And the vaccine? I’m reading it’s two years away.


On the contrary, there is indeed educated speculation, mainly based on the experience with other coronaviruses, with SARS, and on monkey studies. Acquired immunity is not likely to be short-lived. That is, it should last months or years rather than weeks or months. Furthermore, the rate of mutation of coronaviruses in general make them less of a vaccination-defeater than the flu. No guarantees of course, but this is probably the least-bad part of what we know about this thing so far.


While the global population remains susceptible to being infected there will be lockdowns, border controls etc none of which is good for the airline business.

International air travel will resume when we have five-minute serological tests we can take at the border - these are probably 10-20 weeks away, not years. Travellers may also carry cards showing they were tested and shown to be immune at home, but I dare say most countries will want independent checks before boarding and perhaps again on arrival.

Nothing I've said above is intended to understate the seriousness of what we're facing and how bad it might get in the short term, especially for the most vulnerable and for health workers. We certainly need the current lockdowns to, at the very least, buy time to come up with smarter measures.

But the human race can be very adaptable when under pressure.

(Speaking as an SLF who cancelled a five-week trip in early March and who is very keen to resume travelling at the right time).

[ferry pilot]

There will be hard times ahead, but there will also be entrepreneurs and opportunity. Cheap fuel, airplanes for the asking and qualified crews willing to go where the work is may not look anything like where the industry was a few short weeks ago but it may be where much of it is going when the dust settles, if it does not do so soon. For those who cannot return to the comfort and routine of familiar equipment, routes and schedules, a change in expectations and location might be a better option than a change in career. No matter how bad things get, there will always be an airplane sitting on the ground somewhere in the world because it does not have a pilot.

[marchino61]

Mutations are not always for the best. A chance "bad" mutation could result in disaster for the virus. In fact, it happens all the time in the natural world, otherwise we wouldn't be around to tell the story.

If a mutation is harmful to the virus, it will simply be eliminated from the population. The unmutated viruses will carry on as before.

[mothy1583]

An interesting development that is being looked into is the relationship between Covid infection and those that have been inoculated against TB.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-old-vaccine-investigated-as-a-weapon-against-coronavirus

Lots of advancements in science that can piggy-back on older developments.

[jvr]

Mutations are not always for the best. A chance "bad" mutation could result in disaster for the virus. In fact, it happens all the time in the natural world, otherwise we wouldn't be around to tell the story.

i think Darwin would disagree

[3Greens]

Regardless of how this pans out, its not a bad idea using your off time to get another skill/trade as a back up anyway. I flew with many fairly new Fo's over the last few years that are new to the industry and countless times I explained that how it is now is not the norm and it won't last and something will crash the industry as its so fragile and here we are...chaos, I want to be optimistic and it will recover again everything does its part of the cycle of everything over decades, but will it return to the same ? Probably not, and the new guys new to the game will be at the bottom of a long list of very experienced guys, ask anyone who flew through the 2008 onward era

Bets of luck to all of us
how on earth is anyone supposed to learn a new trade in a few months, given that all the trades are also on lockdown? Bricklaying, plumbing, welding all takes a dam sight longer than 3 months to learn. I don’t mean one of those zero to hero college courses, I mean proper time served trades, the kind I’d let actually do some work for me.
oh, and they’re also sat at home too, only they’re worried because the government has left them high and dry with the wage bailout.

[flocci_non_faccio]

Exactly the above. If you're not already qualified (and current, to use an aviation term) in another profession or trade, it is simply fanciful to suggest that you're going to find a job paying even a fraction of current salary. The priority is going to be finding any job to bring in a wage, especially for those of us with a family. It is unlikely that many will have the time (at least three years just to do a degree for example) or money to re-qualify in a different field, so the majority of pilots will be seeing out their working lives in minimum wage employment.

[Mooneyboy]

Why not turn this into a more pro active thread instead of a ‘everyone is doomed’ thread.

Does anyone have any experience of being made redundant as a pilot and what jobs did you go into or what advice do you give others?

Is there any ( I know someone clever will say McDonald’s) jobs or career where pilots skills are transferable or regarded as a positive that can be used to support a family?

I’m hoping not to have to use the advice but might be useful to work out a plan for those of us with long aviation careers and not much else.

[dcoded]

Why not turn this into a more pro active thread instead of a ‘everyone is doomed’ thread.

Does anyone have any experience of being made redundant as a pilot and what jobs did you go into or what advice do you give others?

Is there any ( I know someone clever will say McDonald’s) jobs or career where pilots skills are transferable or regarded as a positive that can be used to support a family?

I’m hoping not to have to use the advice but might be useful to work out a plan for those of us with long aviation careers and not much else.

There is ATC training where you work as a "sim-pilot". NATS/Country equivalent must be training for ATCs somewhere, and surely there a "sim-pilots" employed there to be a counter part in training.
Worth checking out.

[Sholayo]

Why not turn this into a more pro active thread instead of a ‘everyone is doomed’ thread.

Does anyone have any experience of being made redundant as a pilot and what jobs did you go into or what advice do you give others?

Is there any ( I know someone clever will say McDonald’s) jobs or career where pilots skills are transferable or regarded as a positive that can be used to support a family?

I’m hoping not to have to use the advice but might be useful to work out a plan for those of us with long aviation careers and not much else.

Frankly I find it hilarious that ideas many pilots have here on this forum are jobs like plumbers or bus drivers. I always thought (and even expressed this here some time ago in totally different thread) that ability to work under stress, quick problem solving and decision making along with 'practical engineering' makes any pilot excellent candidate for project manager in many areas. And trust me - even in IT I see many great IT project managers who are not of IT background. It always help but is not critical. All you have to do is to be able to be humble, learn quick, listen to others. Does it sound familiar?

&

[The Foss]

the majority of pilots will be seeing out their working lives in minimum wage employment.
Honestly you need to give this line a rest. In the very very worst case scenario where a ‘majority’ of pilots aren’t able to find work in the next 3 years, are you really suggesting that people who have been airline captains have so little about them that they are suitable for nothing other than a minimum wage job for the rest of their life?
Yes you won’t be walking into a job with the same level of pay, or likely even reach that again in your career but provided you’re less than say 60 there is still plenty of time to build up another career from the bottom just like any other person does.

[giord]

Do You think lack of recency will be a big problem when (and if) airline will start hiring again ?

[Papa_Golf]

If the world is doomed I'd like to become a local warlord.

[Herod]

If the world is doomed I'd like to become a local warlord.

Can I apply to be your vice-chief? I like the idea of being in charge of vice.

[greeners]

I always thought (and even expressed this here some time ago in totally different thread) that ability to work under stress, quick problem solving and decision making along with 'practical engineering' makes any pilot excellent candidate for project manager in many areas. And trust me - even in IT I see many great IT project managers who are not of IT background. It always help but is not critical. All you have to do is to be able to be humble, learn quick, listen to others. Does it sound familiar?

&

Completely agree. I was medically grounded out of professional aviation at one stage and found that a lot of the skills translated well into an Investment Banking environment, especially in the Risk Management arena.

[neville_nobody]

Completely agree. I was medically grounded out of professional aviation at one stage and found that a lot of the skills translated well into an Investment Banking environment, especially in the Risk Management arena.

If one has a previous background in Finance, I would agree however you don't just walk into an investment bank with no experience and get dropped into the Risk Management team without some sort of experience and qualification in the area. Who you went to school with would probably help in some establishments.

[torvalds]

If one has a previous background in Finance, I would agree however you don't just walk into an investment bank with no experience and get dropped into the Risk Management team without some sort of experience and qualification in the area. Who you went to school with would probably help in some establishments.
Why? Do you think those qualified in finance would do (did) any better? It's all fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. You just gotta feed the geese to keep the blood flowing. Anybody can do it.

[torvalds]

You had a dream to become a pilot and you made it happen. You can do anything else you'd like if you work really hard for it. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise

[Busdriver01]

Why? Do you think those qualified in finance would do (did) any better? It's all fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. You just gotta feed the geese to keep the blood flowing. Anybody can do it.

*beats chest*

“hmm hmmm hm.”

[Caroline Lane]

As someone who wanted to be a pilot since I was a little girl, who never got there as it wasn't the done thing, Every time I get on a plane I wish I was up the front flying. I read the comments with great sadness.

So many of you loosing your jobs. I'm the enemy it seems. Lol An accountant. My opinion is that once the virus calms down people will take off again. We came back to Australia cutting our holiday to Japan short when our PM told us to get home. We haven't even finished our 14 day quarantine and already talking about starting our holiday again next january.

Many would have postponed their holiday and I think will take off once they know the virus is under control.

My fingers are crossed for you all that this will be over quickly.

Keep safe.

Caz

[neville_nobody]

Why? Do you think those qualified in finance would do (did) any better? It's all fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. You just gotta feed the geese to keep the blood flowing. Anybody can do it.

There are whole postgraduate courses on Financial Risk Management. Usually done by people with 2 degrees and a postgraduate qualification already. What you probably don't realise is that when you start talking about Investment Banking the Talent Pool is not a pool it's the Pacific Ocean. Ridiculously smart people come of out the woodwork to work there. That is why pilots are talking about doing trades or working in supermarkets, flying around the world in a jet doesn't get you very far in most industries without some sort of relevant qualification and experience.

[bringbackthe80s]

If it all goes down the drain this is our chance to simplify our lives. Go Build a cabin somewhere in the woods or close to the water, open a small coffe shop or something. Whatever gets you by. And give the middle finger to this rotten system we created.
Not sure what I’m going to do, but I sure know what I am NOT going to do: spend one more minute feeding the 5% who own the 50%. If in the finance world even more so, the bonuses and dividends these days are an utter shame. My kids will hopefully learn there is always an option.

[inabw]

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x607/fb_img_1585635929330_5e915ad3692ed3927c64b58dfb4121a1c54cac5 6.jpg

[marchino61]

Not sure what I’m going to do, but I sure know what I am NOT going to do: spend one more minute feeding the 5% who own the 50%.

I have news for you. In all probability you are part of that 5% (of the world population) who own the 50%.

[marchino61]

Eurocontrol's pessimistic scenario is my optimistic one. I can't see any way that lock-downs will be lifted in the next two months. The USA will just be peaking in May, I reckon.

[Herod]

That Eurocontrol graph needs to be moved at least four months further down the line. I don't see much of Europe coming out of total lockdown until mid-June at the earliest, and travel won't become possible until maybe August. Then we shall see.

[NoelEvans]

Cargo has been in decline for more than a decade. I doubt the current demand will last a long time.
Please justify your comment on the "decline for more than a decade"?

I know this report is about two years old now, but:Air cargo has recovered and is on track to grow 4.2% over the next 20 yearsAir cargo traffic grew 10.1 percent in 2017, more than double the long-term average growth rate. In the next 20 years, air cargo traffic is expected to more than double and the world freighter fleet will grow by more than 75 percent.E-commerce will continue to boost air cargo demandGlobal retail e-commerce sales were $2.3 trillion in 2017, more than double the $1.1 trillion spent in 2012. With no signs of slowing down, the e-commerce market size is forecast to double again by 2021, reaching nearly $4.9 trillion.


I can't track them down right now but Flight International's report on cargo two years ago said that short-haul cargo in Europe was the fastest growing sector of the airline industry in the world at 11% growth. Their report a year ago stated that the USA/China trade scuffles had led to declines in cargo, mostly long-haul, but the growth in European short-haul cargo had reduced to 'only' 8%.

All the massive building work at both ends of East Midlands Airport over the past few years does not point to "decline".

Right now and for quite a bit into the future my "Career advice for Pilots.." would be Cargo.

[deltahotel]

NoelEVans. Shhhhhhh

[flash8]

Interesting discussion.

I was once on an Aer Lingus flight back in the late 90's on the jumpseat and the Captain enquired why I was leaving a well paid IT career for flying... I told him IT was boring... he then recommended I stick with IT and if he could have had the chance he would have studied IT and not had a career flying.. Unfortunately I ignored him.

Finished my CPL/IR back in the early 2000's and due to personal issues left in early 2006 after a few years on the 737, before flying I saved for my licence with IT work (having a Computer Science Degree) and after I went back to IT, and within a few years my career returned back on track effectively.

There are HUGE advantages to having a steady 9-5 (possibly well remunerated) job, family life stable, time to enjoy yourself and hobbies.. have a life... I mean you only have one!

This may well be a chance for some to reevaluate things and decide a change is long overdue.

Sorry can't offer career advice though.

[finestkind]

Was there an increase in accidents and incidents after the PIC hour regulation's change?
Could anyone please point me to a research on this subject?

Torvald thanks for the question. Given we are talking a 12month to 36 month period (from the issue of the article to 24 months prior) until 911 the likelihood of an increase in accidents is minimal. However as I stated the article raised the concern about safety. It did not state an increase in accidents (hard to find stats on this given the numbers involved around the world and the quick name changes from bankruptcy) . From a logical point of view having someone up front on a small regional as PIC, well most people would like someone with 1000 hours under their belt as opposed to 400hrs. A bit like the surgeon doing his first cut as opposed to one that has successfully done the operation 100 times.

[bringbackthe80s]

Interesting discussion.

I was once on an Aer Lingus flight back in the late 90's on the jumpseat and the Captain enquired why I was leaving a well paid IT career for flying... I told him IT was boring... he then recommended I stick with IT and if he could have had the chance he would have studied IT and not had a career flying.. Unfortunately I ignored him.

Finished my CPL/IR back in the early 2000's and due to personal issues left in early 2006 after a few years on the 737, before flying I saved for my licence with IT work (having a Computer Science Degree) and after I went back to IT, and within a few years my career returned back on track effectively.

There are HUGE advantages to having a steady 9-5 (possibly well remunerated) job, family life stable, time to enjoy yourself and hobbies.. have a life... I mean you only have one!

This may well be a chance for some to reevaluate things and decide a change is long overdue.

Sorry can't offer career advice though.

With all due respect, this has nothing to do with the current situation. Most people (used to, at least) fly out of passion, the idea of spending a life on a computer in an office is simply unbearable to some, no matter how secure it is. If it all ended tomorrow I am sure most pilots would do it all over again, most pilots who started flying in their teens, maybe joined the air force or what have you. Like I said before, if it all goes down the drain I will do my best to find my place outside of the system, not sitting in an office for the rest of my life, this is possibly a time to work on plan b/c/d and some of these plans could actually work for the better.

[Northern Monkey]

Seriously? I've only briefly worked in IT after uni but all those who "persevered" in the industry work 9-5, sit in traffic both ways. Time to enjoy yourself? On the weekend when everyone else is off too?
None of my previous colleagues have 12-15 days off a month, 3-5 days off in a row. I work way less and enjoy myself a lot more. The ones who are paid on par with me are all contractors and guess what? They have been laid off before any pilots.

If I had my time again I would not change a thing. Even if that means I am not going to be employed as a pilot for the next 3-10 years.

Edit: I love the boomers who lived through THE BEST possible time in human history to be a pilot and say they would do something else instead. Absolutely deluded that they would earn even close to what they have.

Agree with all the above.

Where else am I going to find 10-15 days off per month whilst avoiding the nightmare of commuting during rush hour and whilst getting plenty of downtime in the week when everything is quieter? I am also far more involved as a Dad than I would be in virtually any other 9-5 job. I look at some of my friends and they barely see their kids at all during the week, leaving for work at the crack of dawn and getting back after bed time.

The job has plenty of stresses and downsides which we are all too familiar with, but time off and time at home isn't one of them.

[Herod]

As I used to say, way back when. "Dear Lord, save me from ever having to commute in rush-hour, and I'll never complain about doing a walk-round at four in the morning, with de-icing fluid dripping on my hat."

Long, long retired, but I hope you guys all get back in the seats as soon as possible.

[torvalds]

Torvald thanks for the question. Given we are talking a 12month to 36 month period (from the issue of the article to 24 months prior) until 911 the likelihood of an increase in accidents is minimal. However as I stated the article raised the concern about safety. It did not state an increase in accidents (hard to find stats on this given the numbers involved around the world and the quick name changes from bankruptcy) . From a logical point of view having someone up front on a small regional as PIC, well most people would like someone with 1000 hours under their belt as opposed to 400hrs. A bit like the surgeon doing his first cut as opposed to one that has successfully done the operation 100 times.

Thanks finestkind. I am afraid you are right and it will be hard to find a study on this subject, but it is absolutely fascinating.

[Less Hair]

How about moving to cargo?

[Banana Joe]

Good luck finding a cargo airline looking for pilots now. The pilot turnover will probably be at its historic low.

[OPEN DES]

Interesting discussion.

I was once on an Aer Lingus flight back in the late 90's on the jumpseat and the Captain enquired why I was leaving a well paid IT career for flying... I told him IT was boring... he then recommended I stick with IT and if he could have had the chance he would have studied IT and not had a career flying.. Unfortunately I ignored him.

Finished my CPL/IR back in the early 2000's and due to personal issues left in early 2006 after a few years on the 737, before flying I saved for my licence with IT work (having a Computer Science Degree) and after I went back to IT, and within a few years my career returned back on track effectively.

There are HUGE advantages to having a steady 9-5 (possibly well remunerated) job, family life stable, time to enjoy yourself and hobbies.. have a life... I mean you only have one!

This may well be a chance for some to reevaluate things and decide a change is long overdue.

Sorry can't offer career advice though.

And here you are.
Browsing on a pilots forum....

[flash8]

Originally Posted by OPEN DES View Post (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/630977-career-advice-pilots-7.html#post10735837)
And here you are.
Browsing on a pilots forum....

You have a point, fair enough, however I didn't say I lost interest, merely I find my current career more suited to my mental health, home life, family and general well being, and my participation here is usually confined to the social forums. I know plenty of folk who I flew with who are now in changed professions, captain who is now a lawyer, one owns a guesthouse (or a few should I say, granted not a great business at the moment) and another (FO) is running a nightclub. There is no such thing as a profession for life nowadays. My post was to emphasise there is a life after flying, although I concur some might not be in agreement.

[Sholayo]

I in the camp like 'how can you complain about being a pilot'? If it is THAT bad, why don't you leave that industry? Were you randomly selected and forced to get a license and airline job?
Or you spent crazy amount of time and effort to get one?
Still if you hate that job that much, now it is best time ever to leave this crap behind and get your dream job of desk jockey or bus driver.

That would leave sooo many vacancies for those who dream of your job when this covid thing and the crisis will be over. Who knows, if enough of those bored pilots leave even I, in my 45, will get a chance for an airline interview?

&

[JRK]

There is hardly such thing as a "9-to-5" job. Most 9-5 jobs that pay anything descent are, in reality, more like 7-to-6, or 8-to-9, or "burn out on all-nighters" kind of jobs.

[sheikhthecamel]

I would say IT or an Engineering degree.
Data science if you have the aptitude.

[finestkind]

Layman.

Without sounding too caustic my daughter works in the Public Service and yes she does work 9-10 hours a day and also has that flexi day once a fortnight. So long hours no compensation such as flexi days or good super or very hard to be fired?

[macdo]

Silly conversation about public service. The range of employment is enormous and some will work long hours. However, I have had cause to have dealings with several government departments over the last 6 months for the first time ever. I have been frankly amazed and appalled at how the system works. Painfully slow and inefficient, the employees look and sound beaten by their own system. They may well be the last to lose their jobs, but I'd rather take my chances with aviation than live a halve life in the civil service.

[Jerry Springer]

The long term reality of aviation is a string of great years followed by a string of bad years.
For anyone who has not experienced a string of bad years, this downturn has probably come as something of a shock.

Anyone who started in aviation within the last 5 years (perhaps a little longer) had a much easier time finding work than pervious generations, and they enjoyed a lightening fast career progression compared to their predecessors. That is terrific, however I think it has left some vulnerable to the perception that their skills were going to be in demand all around the world throughout their career, and they imagined employers would be begging them to come to work until their dyeing day.
And so now it comes as a bit of shock for them to suddenly discover this industry can spit you out pretty fast, and we’re not the golden boys and girls that we may have imagined ourselves to be.

There is a lot of luck and timing in an aviation career and that is beyond our control.
What I wrote before referring to the good times, still applies now to the bad times, “We don’t create the supply-and-demand employment metric, we can only position ourselves to gain from the climate at the time.”

I won’t be surprised if we soon see people paying for type-rating, and basally working for nothing to get hours. These are the folk you’ll soon be competing against for work, and as much as they will be ridiculed by their peers, depending on your level of experience, you may have to join them or take a job outside aviation for a while.

Aviation will boom again in years to come, and then go bust again. Make hay while the sun shines, but don’t get yourself into a financial position of being dependent on a stable salary at any time during your career. Good luck!

[Private jet]

I'm sure in the UK the government would love for you all to get out into the fields and pick cabbages or lettuce or whatever for minimum wage to support some farmers fortune.

[Clandestino]

don’t get yourself into a financial position of being dependent on a stable salary at any time during your career.

Marie-Antoinetteish moments were truly abundant in this thread but this one really takes the cake.

I guess we should all strive to be born into wealthy families.

Or at least marry into one.

[Webby737]

As an engineer, I personally enjoy working in this industry, if I had my time again I wouldn't change it.
I've been working in the aviation industry for about the last 25 years and it's always been boom and bust so work wise it's always been a feast or a famine.
I understand that having the security and routine of an office job might suit some people but it certainly would not suit me.
Over the years I've had the opportunity to travel to weird and wonderful places, meet and work with weird and wonderful people and had many unforgettable experiences, all this whilst getting paid to do it.
Yes, sometimes the hours are a bit rubbish and the pay has not always been good but 90% of the time I feel like I'm getting paid to do a hobby.
These days I'm self employed (not a great idea at the moment!), pretty much dictate my own working hours and earn about the same as a captain flying for a low cost airline.
This year might be hard but we'll get over it and in 12 - 24 months time we'll all be complaining there's a shortage of trained, experienced personnel.

[Jerry Springer]

Marie-Antoinetteish moments were truly abundant in this thread but this one really takes the cake.

I guess we should all strive to be born into wealthy families.

Or at least marry into one.

Getting married - something else to be avoided in my opinion! But hey, each to their own! But please, not this ‘born into a wealthy family' crap again. Why is there always some fool who assumes that? I was born into the bottom end of income earners, it took me about five years of working long hours to pay for my CPL, and longer to get my ATPL. I lived in a hanger, youth hostel, and caravan behind my car to save on rent.

There is nothing unusual about struggling for a decade to land a decent job flying. And yet, there are always fools who think everything must have been handed to folk on a golden plate if a pilot..I assume they’re either total jerks, or just too lazy to get out there and struggle of 10 years or more, and they’re looking for excuses as to why aviation has not provided them with a big mansion on the hill. ”Oh it’s all because I wasn’t born wealthy.” Boo hoo. Grab a box of tissues and wallow in self pity dude.
There are plenty of commercial pilots who worked hard for years to pay for their training, and who ended up doing well. And if you come from a background like that, you might even appreciate the importance of keeping debt to a minimum, and savings to a maximum.

Took me about 13 years in the aviation industry and until my mid 30s to get a decent wage flying - first flying job paid less than the unemployment benefit. But eventually I landed a decent job and I bought an inexpensive apartment for cash some years after that. I never wanted a bank loan as I’ve seen how work can dry up fast. I’m now out of work again due to this virus, so I’m glad I have no debts and a place to stay. Might have to do something outside of aviation for a while - who knows!

Another thing anyone who earns good money should do, is save up one years worth of living expenses in cash. Impossible to do on a low salary, but everyone who was in a lucrative flying job during the recent aviation boom should have that - although most choose to spend it.
I’ve seen many people buy crazy expensive houses and cars on credit, save zero cash, and then loose their job and end up in a financial mess.
It’s a common theme - earn more, spend more - save no more, and end up no better off than when you earn a minimum salary.

Aviation is boom and bust. If you position yourself with the assumption that the boom is always going to last, then sooner or later you’re going to be in deep financial trouble. Nothing is is secure in life - work within the assumption that things can turn on a dime and you’ll be a little more prepared, or accepting, when that happens. Boom and bust - that is the reality of aviation and if you choose to keep your head in the sand, or pretend people have to be born into wealthy families to do ok in aviation or be financially cautious, then good luck...you’re going to need it!

[Longtimer]

I'm sure in the UK the government would love for you all to get out into the fields and pick cabbages or lettuce or whatever for minimum wage to support some farmers fortune.
I don't know may "rich" farmers, some pilots on the other hand. (original crews at WestJet for instance) :cool:

[Jerry Springer]

I'm sure in the UK the government would love for you all to get out into the fields and pick cabbages or lettuce or whatever for minimum wage to support some farmers fortune.

Nothing wrong with picking cabbages! I spent a summer in Herefordshire doing that...It was the strawberries that were the killer!

[marchino61]

Marie-Antoinetteish moments were truly abundant in this thread but this one really takes the cake.

I guess we should all strive to be born into wealthy families.

Or at least marry into one.

So you think you have to be wealthy to live within your means and save some cash for a rainy day? Most airlines pilots should easily be able to do this.

[marchino61]

I don't know may "rich" farmers, some pilots on the other hand. (original crews at WestJet for instance) :cool:

Given that most UK farms are large and subsidised by the EU, there are plenty of rich farmers out there.

[Clandestino]

Getting married - something else to be avoided in my opinion! Don't start a family - now there is sound financial advice. Can we have some more like this one?

So you think you have to be wealthy to live within your means and save some cash for a rainy day? Most airlines pilots should easily be able to do this.I was always wondering about airline pilots, how much they earn, how much they needed to invest in their training etc. so could you please expand a bit?

[marchino61]

Don't start a family - now there is sound financial advice. Can we have some more like this one?

I was always wondering about airline pilots, how much they earn, how much they needed to invest in their training etc. so could you please expand a bit?

Yes, in Europe they earn around EUR 100K per year. Should be enough to be able to save a bit.

[Clandestino]

Wow. That's quite a lot. Is it before or after tax & contributions? Can one start earning this much straight outta flight school? Pray tell us more!

[Jerry Springer]

Don't start a family - now there is sound financial advice. Can we have some more like this one?

I was always wondering about airline pilots, how much they earn, how much they needed to invest in their training etc. so could you please expand a bit?


Not getting married and not having a family is very sound financial advice. These cost the average chap an absolute fortune. I’d rather go on holidays where and when I want, shag around as I please, and retire 15 or so years earlier than I’d have been able to do had I bought a family - but life is about choices hey - each to their own - but if you choose to pay for a family, no point complaining about not having enough money for quality cocaine and hookers. You can’t have it all dude.

Want some more sound financial advice? Well another thing that has saved me money is not owning a car for about 15 years. Of course that’s not practical for everyone, but it probably saves me the best part of 10k a year.

I can’t speak for others, but I invested about 5 years of working 60 hours a week to pay for my flight training - living in a caravan, hanger and hostels for that period...yeah if frigging sucked, and I often wondered if it was worth it...but if you’re broke and want to be a pilot, that’s about what you have to do. I tried to get a bank loan, but I got rejected every time. But life is also about making some sacrifices - you can have everything and you can’t have it all at once - as much some millennials (and others) seem to think otherwise, to their frustration.

How much do airline pilots earn? I have no idea. There are flying jobs outside the airlines you know.
If I had to wear a tie and one of those silly hats to fly, then I wouldn’t be so interested. But again, each to their own hey!

[Jerry Springer]

Can one start earning this much straight outta flight school? Pray tell us more!
No. You’ll have to suck it up and struggle for years first - just like everyone on a good salary in aviation did. And even after landing a high paying job, you may end up unexpecdely out of work for some time, or having to take a job you’d rather not do. That’s life....
What’s with this entitled attitude of expecting a high salary straight out of flight school?

[AVIM]

Some really interesting dicussion in this thread.

This seems to be a real gut check for many people, the boom years of the past decade+ were long enough that we have a whole generation that has never known the famine times. (ME included.)
Now we've hit an inflection point. No doubt about it, If you've been "Levering Up" for the past decade in all Areas (Credit Card, Conspicous Consumption, Family/Kids, Travel) riding the razor thin margins on the wave of the expansionist boom years, it's a painful one.

All the advice about switching to a trade? Well as a couple of astutue commentators have already elucidated, it's TOO LATE.
Sure, if you're ALREADY a plumber, (electrician, nurse, etc. etc.) then you have a nice little safety net, but how are you going to pick up from 0 as both sides of all markets contract (so spending cutting back) and bills need to be paid? This advice only works if you're taking the full 180 Option, I.e. leaving flying for good.

That said, the intent of the advice is sound - the industry will survive (people are still going to want to fly, etc. etc. airplanes are not going away) but this is where a lot of young cats will need to look in the mirror and decide if they want to "stay in the game" or not and wait out the painful years.

That said It's not all doom and gloom. I am a bit schocked at how low many of us seem to set our aim. Stocking Shelves? Pilots follow complex decision trees/procedures (checklists),work within large organisations (airline) as well as lead functional teams (cockpit), are accustomed to quick decision making under stress (command decisions), international exposure, understanding of company branding, the list goes on and on.

All of these = valuable business skills. Combine this with some light industry knowledge (pick an industry), add a little bit of polish and you're not far away from any respectable professional gig.

Sure we're in for some hard times but if the people in this forum are looking to pump gas or pick cabbages for work then you know we're really in the deep of it.

Take care all.

[DaveJ75]

So you must take the time now to learn another trade. Do an online university degree. Use your time now, preferably to get yourself into a semi recession proof trade or skill

Great idea but you're assuming there'll be available jobs in other sectors then? Expect to be in a long queue of people after those jobs at supermarkets and toilet roll manufacturers!!
I just hope this virus was worth crashing the economy for!

[DaveJ75]

All of these = valuable business skills. Combine this with some light industry knowledge (pick an industry), add a little bit of polish and you're not far away from any respectable professional gig

Taking aside the apparent assumption that there are CEOs everywhere with available roles that they wish could be filled by an ex-airline pilots, does this argument work the other way round then? You swap places with David Brent and after accruing some light industry knowledge and adding a little bit of polish, he can fly an airliner too?

Yeah... ridiculous isn't it? I agree with you that you have some great skills but I hate to break the news to you - there are lots of people with those skills already experienced in doing the roles that you think you'll walk into. Those people have a 'type rating'. In this context, you have a frozen ATPL. So I wish you luck with but you must realise being a pilot / ex-pilot isn't going to get you further up the queue!

[AVIM]

Taking aside the apparent assumption that there are CEOs everywhere with available roles that they wish could be filled by an ex-airline pilots, does this argument work the other way round then? You swap places with David Brent and after accruing some light industry knowledge and adding a little bit of polish, he can fly an airliner too?

Yeah... ridiculous isn't it? I agree with you that you have some great skills but I hate to break the news to you - there are lots of people with those skills already experienced in doing the roles that you think you'll walk into. Those people have a 'type rating'. In this context, you have a frozen ATPL. So I wish you luck with but you must realise being a pilot / ex-pilot isn't going to get you further up the queue!

Thanks for the astute comment, you are correct, this does not work the other way around. Hope the rest of the thread will continue to give us the 'Mood in the Room'.

[sonicbum]

That said It's not all doom and gloom. I am a bit schocked at how low many of us seem to set our aim. Stocking Shelves? Pilots follow complex decision trees/procedures (checklists),work within large organisations (airline) as well as lead functional teams (cockpit), are accustomed to quick decision making under stress (command decisions), international exposure, understanding of company branding, the list goes on and on.

All of these = valuable business skills. Combine this with some light industry knowledge (pick an industry), add a little bit of polish and you're not far away from any respectable professional gig.

Sure we're in for some hard times but if the people in this forum are looking to pump gas or pick cabbages for work then you know we're really in the deep of it.

Take care all.

You are very correct and I do agree with your thoughts but at the end of the day what really matters are the academic titles you have achieved, if any.
Unfortunately a very senior captain, instructor, examiner etc.. with no academic qualifications other than those related to the technical aspect of the pilot profession (college tuition, university, masters, etc..) has zero or close to zero chances of getting a socio-economic equivalent position outside the aviation world.

[FE Hoppy]

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x607/fb_img_1585635929330_5e915ad3692ed3927c64b58dfb4121a1c54cac5 6.jpg
lol someone has been on the pop

[wigbam]

Pessimistic scenario which only assumes 10% less traffic than the optimistic one? Was that graph prepared by some intern?

[ZAZ]

Curious how so many Flying School Light Aircraft continue to train? Solos?
When a girl caught on L plates with her mother got slugged $1600
a yatchie also took boat to Gippsland Dock for food $1600.
One fleeing Vic for Tassie ran aground at heads will pay for SAR and a $1600 fine after being rescued.
A local here took his plane out Friday for a sortie over the town local cops went to airport for a please explain?
Vic Roads put out an announcement cars only to be used for
work, food supplies, meds, essential trips.
If classic cars reconsider using them for any purpose.
SE Aus lots of 172 training flights by day and night on radar.
So do flying schools have exemptions?
Maybe China needs graduates to top up its infected pilot pool?
typo

[Skyfaring]

You are very correct and I do agree with your thoughts but at the end of the day what really matters are the academic titles you have achieved, if any.
Unfortunately a very senior captain, instructor, examiner etc.. with no academic qualifications other than those related to the technical aspect of the pilot profession (college tuition, university, masters, etc..) has zero or close to zero chances of getting a socio-economic equivalent position outside the aviation world.

Whilst Sonicbum is partially right in saying the above, academic qualifications aren’t going to get you to the top of any recruitment list - any recruiter/future employer will ask “what can this candidate offer, and will this candidate stay if the aviation industry picks up again”. As such, regardless of any Open University or online qualification, you will need to make THE decision that many of us have already made - am I in this for the long term or is this a fad? If the latter then don’t bother as you’ll only disappoint yourself.

I had a previous career before Aviation which came from a University Degree, and I can tell you now after many years away from that industry, no one will accept me open arms knowing the financial and personal investment I’ve made in Aviation. The most useful academic achievement I have is my Air Transport Diploma I gained during my flight training.

sonicbum , you say a pilot with experience has zero chances outside their current role without qualifications - I wholly disagree. Does an Army Officer (climbing ranks without a degree) do nothing after they leave the forces? No they utilise their skill set much like Willie Walsh did after retiring his license.

My advice, dig in and stock shelves if you have to, keep absorbing aviation industry knowledge, and keep in contact with the recruiters. Take the initiative to actually speak to a recruiter instead of relying on email/DM/WhatsApp! And if you aren’t committed to this industry then please feel free to leave and start again, as there are hundreds more with passion for aviation who will put in the hard work, will take the rough with the smooth, and are invested until retirement.

inabw - great link from Eurocontrol
AVIM DaveJ75 - spot on

[Halfnut]

Yuge USA retirement numbers in the next ten years for those who hang on.

If you are 21 you have a great career in front of you.

If you are 41 and just thinking about getting in go look at anything else but this.

If you just soloed at 16 you might be #1 at any major airline that survives.....the world is your oyster.

That said get a four year college degree in a real major that can support you and a family if something like this rears it's ugly head once again.

Best of luck big, small, heavies, supers and all.

[PilotLZ]

Agreed. I don't think either that aviation is going to collapse once and forever, even though there are certainly a couple of difficult years ahead. Difficult for the ones already in the game and even more so for the new joiners. Demand for pilots will come back and grow even larger in a couple of years as a combination of economic recovery and retirements. But we won't be quite there for at least another three years, I think.

So, my advice to future new joiners is... If you haven't started training yet - make sure you have some backup qualification to fall back upon before you invest ANY money into flying. Even if this means postponing flight training by a year or two. If you are fresh out of school, it is worth taking the time to do a proper degree in a well-established subject area. Think Engineering, Law, IT, Finance... If demand picks up while you are studying and you can afford some flying - you can start your modular route alongside your studies. If not - focus on your studies, get a job in the end and start saving. Doing your CPL entirely off your own back is a long way better than accumulating a huge amount of debt without a guaranteed quick start in the end. And I am led to believe that someone with actual professional experience and the maturity coming with it will be better positioned in an airline interview as compared to someone who has never done anything other than go to high school and to an ATO right after.

While the answer may be black and white for the youngsters, it's more complicated for the career changers past their mid-30s. By that time in life, one usually has many other major commitments. And it's down to the individual to decide on their very own course of action. I can only say that you would be best off keeping your present job until some certainty draws up. Whether or not you will be doing any flight training in parallel with it - that's not for me to say as it depends on one's cash reserves and their willingness to gamble it onto something with an uncertain outlook.

Anyways, best of luck to everyone. As long as one is happy with their decisions and does not regret anything - it's all well and good.

[Flying Clog]

Very well put PilotLZ.

[sonicbum]

sonicbum , you say a pilot with experience has zero chances outside their current role without qualifications - I wholly disagree. Does an Army Officer (climbing ranks without a degree) do nothing after they leave the forces? No they utilise their skill set much like Willie Walsh did after retiring his license.


No, that is not what I have written in my earlier post. I have written that it is unlikely that a pilot will be able to relocate in another business whilst maintaining the same socio-economical position he had in his former role, unless of course he had some previous background studies in college, university and so on.
An Army Officer gets a chance to learn many different skills during his career that he can easily "resell" outside his current role, such as - for example - IT skills, security, intelligence, weapons knowledge, etc..
An airline pilot has many valuable skills, but most of them are strictly related to flying an aircraft and what is immediately surrounding it, ie. ops control / flight planning, rostering.
Can't really see how that could be applicable in another sector.

[Busdriver01]

No, that is not what I have written in my earlier post. I have written that it is unlikely that a pilot will be able to relocate in another business whilst maintaining the same socio-economical position he had in his former role, unless of course he had some previous background studies in college, university and so on.
An Army Officer gets a chance to learn many different skills during his career that he can easily "resell" outside his current role, such as - for example - IT skills, security, intelligence, weapons knowledge, etc..
An airline pilot has many valuable skills, but most of them are strictly related to flying an aircraft and what is immediately surrounding it, ie. ops control / flight planning, rostering.
Can't really see how that could be applicable in another sector.

I would argue that, increasingly, the 'soft' skills such as CRM, Workload Management, etc etc are what really make a good pilot, and these are skills which other industries have actively shown that they desire / would like to incorporate and so a pilot can just as easily 'resell' these as an army officer. I agree getting a job with the same pay grade in todays economy may be a challenge.

[Flying Clog]

I know what I'd be doing right now - buying up all the hairdressing/cutting equipment I can possibly get my grubby hands on. Setting up a business plan to strike as soon as the social distancing measures are relaxed and perhaps using, recruiting, or putting on retainer, 100s of hairdressers in the UK with a compelling business model. A national door to door service at a sensible price. Used reliable cars will be going cheap too to equip the fleet. Learn to cut hair in the mean time myself.

Go absolutely ballistic once the social distancing measures are relaxed. There's no way that the current number of hairdressers in the UK will even be able to keep up with even 25% of the demand they'll have in the first 3-6 months of recovery. There will be a massive backlog. Good luck trying to book in to get your barnet cut any time soon.

Then use the profits you've made from this venture, and the business experience gained to open more doors. Perhaps simultaneously get a degree in business or something even more left field like Engineering, with the profits you've just drummed up. And away you go.

But sadly, as I alluded to in the opening of this thread - anyone with less than 10 years flying at a major airline or 5 years at a loco probably won't ever see the inside of the flight deck again. It's very sad and I feel for all my colleagues.

I started flying in the 90s, went through the Asian Crisis, 9/11, SARS and the GFC of 2008... and this one will be an order of magnitude of 10 of all those previous inconveniences COMBINED. And my good friends who were in the wrong place at the wrong time had their careers set back 5-10 years even with those (now minor) hiccups in the road. This one............

Swallow that pill, act fast, and forget about the flying career.

[guy_incognito]

Unfortunately I also can't see anyway back to flying for most who are about to lose their jobs. Even if we're extremely optimistic and assume that there'll be limited hiring of pilots within five years, by that time ratings will have lapsed and skills will have atrophied. Plan B (or C or D) for most is going to be needed I fear.

[Busdriver01]

If we needed proof that the thread starter was plucking random ideas from the air while searching for those lost marbles, we have it. I'll take the sympathetic approach here - are you ok, FC? Has lockdown got to you? Maybe speak to someone...

[sonicbum]

I would argue that, increasingly, the 'soft' skills such as CRM, Workload Management, etc etc are what really make a good pilot,

Absolutely.

and these are skills which other industries have actively shown that they desire / would like to incorporate

Very true but it is not enough, you also the need the technical knowledge of the different industries you are approaching and for most of them it can't just be built overnight, it takes time, most likely some university-level education.

and so a pilot can just as easily 'resell' these as an army officer.

I have got a few friends that have a past in the army. One learned IT in the army and now works in the IT field for a multinational company. Another one was in the special assault troop forces and now works for a security / bodyguard company. Another one is a weapons' store manager as he gathered enough knowledge in the army for that purpose. Which "skills" can you resell as a pilot, other than non-technical ones ?

[Flying Clog]

OK BusDriver01, you just keep burying your head in the sand. I'm sure everything will be back to normal in 3 months and aviation will be back to 2019 levels in no time. Absolutely no point on working on a plan B.

FC

[Master1975]

Dear Aviation Enthusiast,

we all love our job it is the best place to work in it.....but.....after already 3 insolvency's and a little time outside the European country i must realized it was just a delayed step out of aviation because many of us jumped already from other insolvency's to another one. Where we are right know....the airlines even the few that have a lot of money like Ryanair will survive and they will use CORONA to push down the TC's...working under the short time work allowance will be realistic until the 12 month are over. All the companies can and will do it because the use money from the governments. We a cheap employers right now believe me. We will and have already lost our power for a long time...is anyone here that thinks the unions will have any power in the future to fight for FAIR not better TC's....it will not be the fact...the airlines and the management will always put the COVID-19 cleaning rag on the table and will say SORRY but you know CORONA happened we can just reduce the TC'S

Aviation shrink's, at the end of the year 30 airlines or more will be bankrupt, the others reduces the size of the fleet.....Lufthansa already decided to closed Phoenix and Bremen in a few weeks...because who need young pilots if the market it full of us....we all are replaceable and with the crises know there a so many of us on the job market that the next 10 years all pilots can be recruited from the pool of fired pilots with sometimes more then 10000 hours on the shoulders.

Pls. youngsters don't and again don't trust the ATO's there all a liars and just want your money....to start to become a pilot right now is in fact burning of money...look to the left and right side...Airbus is just a step away to kick us out of the flight deck (automatic guidance during take off)...of course a lot will now say that will never happen....like "the aviation will never go down".....the aviation is DOWN and CORONA is like a emergency brake. The latest numbers from the ICAO says more then 30 Million of us from the lady that clean the toilet over the Lady on the information desk, the Lady at MC Donalds and all the others that made it possible for us to practice our profession. These people will never get back what they had passion.....very sad to see.....

i just started a training to become a professional truck driver and have 9 years until i can enjoy my pension.....i forget to say.....i'm was not employed by Lufthansa or Ryanair and was never in China....so far i will be an average pensioner....

Hope that the youngsters under us that just started a few months ago can survive this and have the chance to experience the same moments like we had in the past with all the feeling and sometimes tears in our eyes....and during i write this i have tears in my eyes remembering all the good moments that i had with my crew on duty and during layovers
For all others which thinking about to start with pilot training...DON'T DO IT....

For all uf us stay healthy

[JanetFlight]

Good luck with your truck driver career,,,however Corona, Covid, what you may wish to choose, like any other things its not perpetual neither immortal...yeap, could be 1, 2 or 3 years, but as other things in life, aviation will return to previous numbers sooner or later. And when im writing about aviation, the same applies to transport, travel, tourism, economy, etc....some things may change, some for better of us, but this is my humble opinion...stay safe, happy roads, peace!

[Sholayo]

@Lord Farringdon (https://www.pprune.org/members/428293-lord-farringdon)
Yeah, exactly my thought. I wrote it couple of pages ago but in much poorer language :D
This is the type of inspiration we need now and not that discouraging, almost full of shadefreude BS which was dumped by the guy who started the thread.

Cheers,
&

[advent]

Very well written. Takes a more experienced pilot to fully understand and agree with your comments.. Nothing intended there to offend anyone of any age or experience..

Some very good thoughts and engaging ideas for the pilot community as a whole to look at .. Thanks


Ad..

[guy_incognito]

It's a lovely sentiment, and I'm sure we'd all love to believe that what LF has written is true. Unfortunately however, the reality of the situation is that there's a world of difference between an experienced military officer and an airline pilot, except I suppose for those who have previously been military officers. In the real world, "transferable skills" may look good on a CV but they're not really going to put you above the fresh graduates you'll be competing with in most cases, let alone anyone with experience in the industry/ industries you're targeting.

One major hurdle (of many) that we'll be facing is the perception that we're going to be off as soon as a flying job crops up. There is no incentive for any company to invest a penny in an airline pilot, unless they can show that they've invested a significant amount in themselves to remove any doubt that they're serious about a career change, for example by getting a degree or similar. I'd think that would rule out the vast majority of pilots who simply can't afford to take three years away from work, and pay university fees of £9000 a year. With a mortgage, nursery fees etc. to pay I know it would be impossible for me. When the seemingly inevitable happens and I lose my job in the next couple of months, the priority is going to be an immediate income. Therefore, sad to say but I think for most of us, being a "checkout chick or forklift guy" is likely to be the reality for the foreseeable future and probably much longer than that.

[Citationcj2]

The OP needs to wake up from the nightmare hes having!
Im still flying on daily bases and loving my cockpit and the view of 4 engines. Not all aviation is dead.

And hopefully things will pick up, granted not as before, but we certainly not be prisoners of our homes for the rest of our lives

[Geriaviator]

Based on several careers in my long and happy life, Lord Farringdon says everything I would like to say, only he says it better. I can also understand subsequent posts by seeing the glass half full or half empty. My heartfelt good wishes to all those pilots and engineers now struggling in the shattered dreams I once aspired to and eventually made reality. May you find the good fortune that once smiled upon me.

[Baldeep Inminj]

I do have a very small piece of possible advice for those youngsters who dream of a career in aviation.

I am in my early 50’s. I wanted to fly for as long as I can remember - I genuinely never wanted to be anything other than a pilot. I was very fortunate to have quite wealthy parents who supported this aim. When I turned 20 I had a frozen atpl, was an instructor and had around 1000hrs in various piston singles and twins. I was lucky.
However I could not seem to make that next leap on the ladder and get somebody to pay me to fly rather than the other way round.
I had a long conversation with my uncle who had been in the RAF. He told me that the Military offered far better flying than a civilian could dream of, but demanded an awful lot in return. He said I needed to be honest about my goals and asked if it was the actual flying I craved or the lifestyle of being an airline captain.
I applied to the RAF, I was accepted, and then spent 29 wonderful years doing the most amazing flying - things I shall remember for a lifetime.
However, my friends who got into the the airlines at an early age are now pretty much all a lot wealthier than me...but I have much better stories! It’s horses for courses.

Now I really hesitate to call it a silver lining but the instability in the world, not to mention the current crisis, has only served to solidify the need for military aviation. It will not suit all, indeed it may not suit many, but for those that simply have to fly, it is there as an option and they are recruiting.

Just my thoughts 😁

[Flying Clog]

The OP needs to wake up from the nightmare hes having!
Im still flying on daily bases and loving my cockpit and the view of 4 engines. Not all aviation is dead.

And hopefully things will pick up, granted not as before, but we certainly not be prisoners of our homes for the rest of our lives

Citationcj2 - I'm the OP. I'm not having a nightmare. I'm just trying to help. Personally I'm one of the lucky ones, been flying 747 freighters for many years, and we're busier than ever now. But thanks for your concern.

Back to the topic - anyone have any other ideas of possible career paths for those who might not be able to get back into the flight deck for many, many years?

[NoelEvans]

...
However, my friends who got into the the airlines at an early age are now pretty much all a lot wealthier than me...but I have much better stories! It’s horses for courses.
...That falls very much into the "do you work to live or do you live to work" situation! Who is happier?

I liked Lord Farringdon's very well written optimism. But then there are some quite justified 'glass half full' comments following that. For example, will a future employer think that you're only going to be there until another flying job comes up?

Don't knock the idea of any of those 'menial' jobs in the mean time. Go and do one if you can. And don't think of it as 'menial' think of it as different. It will keep you occupied rather than moping at home. It will make your C.V. look better for whatever comes up in the future from two aspects: no long empty gaps and it showed that you were prepared to do something. That 'something' will help you to readjust your thinking to what may lie ahead and get you into a more suitable frame of mind. It would definitely help with your 'references trail' for whatever the future holds (possibly another airline job that will need that 'trail'?). But it will keep you busy. If you go down the sort of route that Lord Farringdon has done I am sure that it will put that "Is prepared to try something different" thought into a prospective employer's mind when looking at applicants to interview. And you will probably find if you go into it with the right frame of mind that you will enjoy it! Don't see it as 'underselling yourself', see it as filling a gap while you prepare for whatever comes next. And even if you do end up back in a flying job, it'll give you more to talk about in future years!!

I myself have had a gap between jobs and went to do what many might consider a 'menial' job, effectively sorting bits of paper and feeding them into envelopes. I met a huge range of people doing it for all sorts of reasons: fill gaps as I was (a lot of them from all walks of life!), people who just went from one temporary job to another, students earning extra cash or pensioners earning a bit more for that extra holiday the next year (in one case, one in his 70s for his annual scuba-diving holiday!). They were a great bunch of people. I never said what I did. Most never asked. If they did I said I was involved in 'transport' (until my last day, when I told a few!). I enjoyed it so much that a couple of years later I went and did it again for a few days in my spare time (again not talking abut what I do) and found that the new starters had been told that they have a huge range of people working there, they even had an airline pilot once! I would thoroughly recommend that anyone with time on their hands look into doing something! It would be valuable not just for whatever your C.V. might be needed for, but also for your own mind. It should add that little bit more to the way that you see the world which could be hugely valuable if it is not a flying job that you will go into.

But don't be too pessimistic about those flying jobs either. There have been huge ups and downs in this industry and it always bounces back, somehow. I have worked with lot of people who have been thrown aside by this industry but have clambered back. (And I have usually enjoyed flying with them a whole lot more than those who have ended up with everything 'handed' to them on a plate.) If you're really in it for the flying, don't give up. (If not, then please leave it for those who do enjoy the flying!)

But don't sit at home and mope, go and do something 'different' in the mean time. If you are going to do as Lord Farringdon suggested, it could be that first tiny step that gets the mind thinking differently. If you are intending to get back into flying it could be an important step to keeping your mind going!

Whichever way you go -- Good Luck!!

[Flying Clog]

Well said NoelEvans.

Get any job you can, and don't stick your head in the sand and/or get depressed. Preferably get a job that's mentally stimulating and perhaps learn some skills in a trade that's recession proof.

I would say; driving trucks, haircutting, electrical work, plumbing, engineering, IT. But I'm just throwing ideas out there.

And of course, never give up on the dream of getting back in the flight deck..

[guy_incognito]

I would say; driving trucks, haircutting, electrical work, plumbing, engineering, IT. But I'm just throwing ideas out there.

Qualifications (and therefore money) are required for all of those, except arguably driving (small) trucks. Unfortunately I'd say they're a little out of reach of the average airline pilot at the moment. Try stacking shelves, manning tills, picking fruit.

[cats_five]

Qualifications (and therefore money) are required for all of those, except arguably driving (small) trucks. Unfortunately I'd say they're a little out of reach of the average airline pilot at the moment. Try stacking shelves, manning tills, picking fruit.

In addition regulations for electricians & plumbers are forever changing, and there are manual skills that require practice.

[PilotLZ]

In an ideal world, said backup qualification should be acquired before you set foot in a flight school. And the main reason is far more trivial than the possibility of a pandemic halting international travel. As a pilot, one will only last as long as their medical. Sadly, there are a lot of health conditions with which one can live a long and high-quality life but forget about flying commercially ever again.

As for the current situation and the ways and means to keep yourself afloat until aviation recovers again - I can imagine that it depends on one's individual circumstances. Many pilots possess other skills and qualifications. Many even practice them as a second job in their downtime and now that second job can temporarily become the main one. Many hold degrees which could help now. Some have access to vocational training, others don't. Someone has a good grasp of fixing cars, real estate or foreign languages, someone else doesn't. And that's what will, to a large extent, decide who will spend the next months or years stacking shelves and who will be doing something else.

[GS-Alpha]

This thread is hugely entertaining. I am loving the idea that pilots are somehow better qualified/suited to becoming hairdressers, plumbers or electricians, when compared to the other couple of million people who will soon find themselves out of a job. Why would someone who enjoys flying aircraft enjoy cutting hair? I am laughing just typing that question. I am amazed you have not got driving instructor on your list - for the training Captains 😂

If I find myself without a job, (and I do agree the current chances of that happening are far higher than they have previously ever been), I think I will be considering something a little more suited to my skills, attributes and qualifications. I find myself wondering how you ever ended up jumping through all of the hoops and becoming a professional pilot when your next best career idea is to become a hairdresser or a plumber?

[Herod]

your next best career idea is to become a hairdresser or a plumber?

Don't disparage the jobs. We'd be stuck without plumbers, and you try finding a hairdresser in England today!

PilotLZ; I agree with you about qualifications. I fact I said something very similar way back at the beginning of this thread. I lost my licence medically at 58, and had no back-up qualifications. An experienced and capable airline pilot; yes and ?????

[GS-Alpha]

I am not disparaging those career choices. Plenty of people thoroughly enjoy hairdressing and it is most definitely an important profession with a level of skill requiring lots of training. I just do not see the crossover in skill set, qualification, or interests which would suggest that airline pilots might be well suited to it. Likewise with the other suggestions.

[Webby737]

Don't disparage the jobs. We'd be stuck without plumbers, and you try finding a hairdresser in England today!

PilotLZ; I agree with you about qualifications. I fact I said something very similar way back at the beginning of this thread. I lost my licence medically at 58, and had no back-up qualifications. An experienced and capable airline pilot; yes and ?????

I think some sort of self employment is the way to go.
Many pilots would have the skill set to run their own business, the question after Covid-19 is what business ?

[Meester proach]

Simple way to do it , is work backward from how much money you need to survive with a little extra.

I’m fortunate that I never lived up the salary and thus need about 2/5 of it to live .

I feel sorry for those who pushed it every month to the max , but I’ve been distrustful of this “ career “ for 20 years . It’s way too sensitive to terrorism/ recession / crazy stuff like now .

[Chris the Robot]

I've never really understood why people max themselves out on spending, anyone who is in a well-remunerated job you'd think would be able to get six months' living costs together fairly quickly. In my case, I was saving up for the modular route, though given the situation I don't think I'd consider self-funded training unless the recovery is very strong indeed or some other major event happens. I'd consider going for any fully-funded airline schemes, though I doubt they'll exist for a while.

Over on the railway, in the UK, a well known train operator who runs the West Coast expresses is currently recruiting for trainee drivers right now. Even though it's not especially difficult to find capable trainees given the numbers that apply, those who are successful won't have to pay a penny for their training which lasts over a year and which will cost their employer well over £100k. Instead, they'll be paid a smidge under £40k a year to sit in a classroom and after a few months drive under supervision and route learn, they'll then go up towards full money which they'll get once they've been qualified a year or two. The entire time, they'll be on a defined benefit pension scheme. That's what put into perspective for me. I may be a bit biased though at the end of the day and if I had the choice I'd rather be flying a plane than driving a train, however it is just a job at the end of the day. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Chris2303]

And driving a train requires some of the skills required of an airline pilot, with concentration being the main thing. Situational awareness, for instance, is as important on the track as it is in the air.

Lots of cab ride videos available on youtube if you want to check it out.

[happyjack]

Many years ago with another aviation downturn I found myself out of work. I applied for a crewmember position on a ferry boat. It was incredibly difficult to secure the position as once they knew my background they knew that as soon as a flying position became available I would be off. They were not wrong. I did get the job, through mutual acquaintances but I was gone after just a couple of months. On reflection it was not a good idea to tell them my background but how do you avoid it? Not only is it 90% of my CV but it's historical so what "were" you doing? The reality is that being Buck Rogers qualifies you for nothing once it's over. :ugh:

[PilotLZ]

And driving a train requires some of the skills required of an airline pilot, with concentration being the main thing. Situational awareness, for instance, is as important on the track as it is in the air.

Lots of cab ride videos available on youtube if you want to check it out.
True that, but how many train driver jobs are out there waiting for someone with zero railway experience? Most people becoming train drivers are there to stay and expansion is not in orders of magnitude even in the best of times. Vacancies are few and are often filled by internal promotion. So, as lucrative as it may sound, it's probably not quicker or easier to achieve than another flying job. The big question is, how does one keep some cash coming in the meantime...

[FZRA]

Many years ago with another aviation downturn I found myself out of work. I applied for a crewmember position on a ferry boat. It was incredibly difficult to secure the position as once they knew my background they knew that as soon as a flying position became available I would be off. They were not wrong. I did get the job, through mutual acquaintances but I was gone after just a couple of months. On reflection it was not a good idea to tell them my background but how do you avoid it? Not only is it 90% of my CV but it's historical so what "were" you doing? The reality is that being Buck Rogers qualifies you for nothing once it's over. :ugh:

happyjack hits the nail on the head. The boss of a small airline I used to work for purposely excluded pilot CV's from office type roles as he knew they'd have zero commitment to the company during an upturn.

From those who have actually made a move elsewhere, any tips on how to target non-aviation type jobs? I'm thinking specifically here about how to adapt a CV that only has flying or other aviation roles. It's all well and good saying that we've got the skills to be useful outside of flying, but how to make it clear that we're committed to trying something else and won't bolt the moment a new airline comes along!

[guy_incognito]

happyjack hits the nail on the head. The boss of a small airline I used to work for purposely excluded pilot CV's from office type roles as he knew they'd have zero commitment to the company during an upturn.

From those who have actually made a move elsewhere, any tips on how to target non-aviation type jobs? I'm thinking specifically here about how to adapt a CV that only has flying or other aviation roles. It's all well and good saying that we've got the skills to be useful outside of flying, but how to make it clear that we're committed to trying something else and won't bolt the moment a new airline comes along!

As I've previously mentioned, it's a bit of a catch-22. The only way you can show that you're committed to a new career is to have made a significant investment in terms of money, time or both in that new career. But time and money are two things most pilots won't have now with bills needing to be paid. Hence, it is only the lucky few or those with prior skills and qualifications who will be finding non-menial work.

[Chris the Robot]

True that, but how many train driver jobs are out there waiting for someone with zero railway experience? Most people becoming train drivers are there to stay and expansion is not in orders of magnitude even in the best of times. Vacancies are few and are often filled by internal promotion. So, as lucrative as it may sound, it's probably not quicker or easier to achieve than another flying job. The big question is, how does one keep some cash coming in the meantime...

On my course a few years ago, 7 out of 8 were externals, 2 out of 8 were over 50 years of age. It's perfectly normal to see people well north of 50 who've never worked on the railway to be offered a place on a training course. That said, the process is just as competitive as an airline mentored programme, the aptitude tests are tough and the companies really like life experience. One of the reasons I mentioned it is that it might be worthwhile for pilots out of work to consider it as a career since a lot of the flying experience would be deemed beneficial. The train companies will expect a return of service post-training, 3 years is the norm, so any pilots would need to convince them it was a one-way move.

There's a massive retirement boom in the UK at the moment whereby the more "prestigious" companies which used to only take internals as trainee drivers are opening up to external applicants. I don't know if the situation will continue post-virus but it 's been a drivers' market for a few years.

[Norodnik1812]

Speaking as someone who has years in IT I can advise the following.

As Pilot's are ,in general, intelligent and methodical, I would suggest looking at roles in Project Management (Look for Agile or Scrum Master keywords) - and/or - get yourselves trained/certified using SFDC (salesforce.com) or SAP. There are big skill shortages in these areas, you can get qualified in months, there is tonnes of help on the internet and it doesn't cost that much (relatively speaking) to get certified. Most of the above is just learning a process and once mastered you just rinse and repeat (sound familiar!).

[tommybuk]

To add to christherobot's post I too work on the railway and found that my company at least didn't discriminate when it came to age and external candidates.

When I attended the psychometric testing day, of 10 candidates, 6 were internal and 4 were external. Only two of us made it to the end and we were both external candidates. There was a trainee driver on my course who was 52 and had never seen the inside of a train cab before in his life.

I've now been on the railway for nearly 12 years and I can honestly say it's the best job I've ever had, I obtained my PPL in 2008 and considered the modular route to a career in aviation but never did in the end and I'm now happy to fly for pleasure.

During my PPL training one of the other students was a Driving Instructor for (then) Virgin Trains West Coast. He was happy to explain the processes of recruitment and gave me some handy pointers when applying.

As mentioned there are normally many more applicants than positions and the testing requires some preparation and practice.

Like Chris says above I'd rather be flying planes than driving trains but there aren't many jobs that pay 50k-60k basic for a 4 day week, strong union, every night in my own bed and overtime opportunities that see drivers at my depot earn over 100k.

I didn't have to pay a penny towards my training however I was bonded to my company for 3 years once qualified.

Just my tuppence worth.

Tommy

[Flying Clog]

Well there you have it, it sounds like training to be a train driver would be the way to go under normal circumstances. But obviously with social distancing and limited travel the next few years, people might choose to drive private cars instead of get a season rail pass. So I don't think there will be many train driving jobs going.

Starting a business is an option, but what?!

Again, I think my hairdressing business option from many posts ago is viable.

I also have many colleagues who retired as pilots and became driving instructors and are very happy with their lot.

[Jerry Springer]

And driving a train requires some of the skills required of an airline pilot,.
you mean like the concentration required to not spill a coffee when on autopilot in a straight line for five hours, followed by the concentration required to not fall asleep for another three hours?

here we go....

[Chris the Robot]

I meant to add earlier that Network Rail are, to the best of my knowledge, looking for signallers at the moment. The role is structured by Grades, numbered 1-9, with 9 being the highest (though these days most boxes are at least a 3 or 4 it seems). It is possible to go in as a Grade 7 or higher off the street if you have the aptitude and life experience. The smaller boxes will get gradually closed and replaced as signalling upgrades are put through, though I reckon there will be semaphores and levers for the next 20 years in some places.

Flying it isn't I'm afraid but it is the sort of job a redundant pilot could apply for off the street and get if they were considering a long-term/permanent move away from aviation, it might be a nice top-up to a pension in the case of early retirement. Training salary is/was only one grade below the grade you'd be in post-qualification, I believe this salary lasts for a year or until qualified, whichever is longer.

The commuter and freight sectors will still be strong I think, there won't be much parking in the big cities and the freight will still need to be moved around. The intercity sector is a bit different because these trains can become commuter trains for part of their journey. For example a 6am out of Euston for Liverpool will pick up a load of Liverpool bound commuters at Crewe at about 7:40-ish. Lots of season ticket holders commute into London from a long way out and even with video conferencing they'll still need to get in. Sadiq Khan wasn't very popular when he cut the tube services and whilst the Train Operating Companies is privatised, almost everything the operators do (including timetable/service changes) has to go through the DfT.

[KRviator]

I may be a bit biased though at the end of the day and if I had the choice I'd rather be flying a plane than driving a train, however it is just a job at the end of the day. Nothing more, nothing less.I'm the opposite. I gave up a career in commercial aviation to drive trains - something I have been doing for 15 years now and will probably retire from doing in another 20 or so.. I have the potential to earn more money than most pilots in Australia who aren't in seat 0A (and even some that are..), but by choice have gone part time to give me 4 weeks off in every 6 weeks, yet I still earn well over $100K AUD. I still get paid to chase the horizon, I still get to listen to the ABC in the wee hours. The big difference between flying and the railway? I still have an RV-9 I can fly for fun when I want, where I want, but talking to a few tech crew over the years who are interested in trains, they can't go work a freight train somewhere to get their kicks.

True that, but how many train driver jobs are out there waiting for someone with zero railway experience?There's probably more than you'd think, at least in Australia. You might need to move inter/intrastate to get a gig, but that's no different to flying. I got one of the positions years ago due to a contract expansion and the willingness to move to take up the role.

[bringbackthe80s]

This thread is getting totally out of control.

[Olympia463]

The comments about being 'over-qualified' are quite apposite. I hit that problem the day I graduated from university. The company I had worked for in my student vacations turned me down - they said they didn't need people with First Class Honours degrees. British Railways (my father was a senior officer) wouldn't take me either, same reason. Rolls-Royce were less fussy, and I eventually became a senior aircraft engine designer with them. Hey! you may even have flown planes with my engines in - anybody flown with R-R Conways? - I was in the team that designed the Conway, the first by pass engine. I think the rest is history as they say.

This problem of holding above average or specialised qualifications will often bite you. Later on in my career I was made redundant, when the outfit I was in went bust. It took quite a time to find a new employer - they all thought I would not stay long. `sound familiar? One company saw my potential, hired me anyway into a 'created' job, and then moved me rapidly up their engineering management chain, till I was right at the top. They saw potential, not problems.

[RetiredBA/BY]

Yes, BOAC and BA VC10s !

[NoelEvans]

This thread is getting totally out of control.
Why?

The immediate few posts before that one should have been really useful to many.

[tommybuk]

There's a couple of flying jobs going with West Yorkshire Police if anybody is in the vicinity.

Unable to link but the details are:

NPAS (fixed wing)

£57825-£60942 plus £7k Factor payment

Based at Doncaster

4 on 4 off 12 hour shifts.

All details can be found on West Yorkshure Police's jobs website.

Tommy

[Flying Clog]

That's a good one tommybuk, I'm sure many of us would jump at that opportunity!

[Flying Clog]

Why on earth is the in the 'wannabes' forum?

I'm pretty sure nearly every one of us is a current pilot posting here. Except for the odd train driver, who we all envy now.

[Meester proach]

I've never really understood why people max themselves out on spending, anyone who is in a well-remunerated job you'd think would be able to get six months' living costs together fairly quickly. In my case, I was saving up for the modular route, though given the situation I don't think I'd consider self-funded training unless the recovery is very strong indeed or some other major event happens. I'd consider going for any fully-funded airline schemes, though I doubt they'll exist for a while.

Over on the railway, in the UK, a well known train operator who runs the West Coast expresses is currently recruiting for trainee drivers right now. Even though it's not especially difficult to find capable trainees given the numbers that apply, those who are successful won't have to pay a penny for their training which lasts over a year and which will cost their employer well over £100k. Instead, they'll be paid a smidge under £40k a year to sit in a classroom and after a few months drive under supervision and route learn, they'll then go up towards full money which they'll get once they've been qualified a year or two. The entire time, they'll be on a defined benefit pension scheme. That's what put into perspective for me. I may be a bit biased though at the end of the day and if I had the choice I'd rather be flying a plane than driving a train, however it is just a job at the end of the day. Nothing more, nothing less.


Sounds good, but these companies don’t seem keen on commuters - every train driver job seems to be “ must live 45 mins max “ from base .

[Chris the Robot]

Sounds good, but these companies don’t seem keen on commuters - every train driver job seems to be “ must live 45 mins max “ from base .

It's due to something called the "fatigue index". Drivers who have a long commute before and after their shift are more likely to be fatigued and are considered to be at greater risk of an operational incident. Some companies will allow potential trainees to relocate, though quite a few won't since they took people on who had moved and those people moved to a qualified driver role in their original area after qualifying. The greatest amount of recruitment is always usually in and around London, though Cross Country and Avanti have a lot of retirements coming up, TPE are short and GWR expanded services by quite a lot over the past couple of years.

It's pretty much a one-way career move and it may well appeal to any pilot who takes a pessimistic view of the future of the pilot role.

[parkfell]

Didn’t a bunch of Harrier pilots redeploy as train drivers ?