Post Covid19 Aviation

[f1yhigh]

I am a realist, as I'm sure many of you are. What can we expect when all this is over? Some have reason to believe there will be no more flying for the VA A330s, QF 747s/A380s and some are even speculating that Project Sunrise will be expedited and could be flying as early as late next year.

[directimped]

Who knows. However I think it is safe to assume that some of us won't be invited back when this is over. Irrespective of where you work: Oz, Asia, ME, grounding fleets for such a period of time is going to have consequences.

Best wishes to all, but it would pay to have a plan b in the back of your mind just in case.

[Australopithecus]

The restoration of international flying is going to take some time, especially to the US. I cannot even imagine what a recovery looks like domestically after everyone is broke or behind a year in their repayments. Uncharted waters.

On the other hand, its not too farfetched to imagine a return to regulated fares and protectionism. I would be very surprised if any ME carrier ever has more than one or two services a day to Oz. The government is going to have to abandon its free market ideology in order to restore local jobs ( and crucially, the local tax base)

[Paragraph377]

There will probably be 20 major airlines worldwide. Qantas will be one of them. None of them will be in good financial standing initially, but that will change as they rebuild. Smaller players, regionals airlines, charter and GA will be gone, all of it. Freight operators will slowly grow.

This event has and will change society collectively. Don’t be surprised if in a few months time the World emerges from this with almost all terrorism eliminated, church doors never to be allowed to open again and we have a cashless society now using a global digital currency. Realestate as you currently know it will crash back to earth and they will ban the private use of Gold as currency or trade. Governments will retain the special emergency powers they have implemented and we will be watched and monitored in everything we do. Governments will capitalise on this crisis to do things they have never done before and none of the plebs will fight it.

[deadc]

There will probably be 20 major airlines worldwide. Qantas will be one of them. None of them will be in good financial standing initially, but that will change as they rebuild. Smaller players, regionals airlines, charter and GA will be gone, all of it. Freight operators will slowly grow.

This event has and will change society collectively. Don’t be surprised if in a few months time the World emerges from this with almost all terrorism eliminated, church doors never to be allowed to open again and we have a cashless society now using a global digital currency. Realestate as you currently know it will crash back to earth and they will ban the private use of Gold as currency or trade. Governments will retain the special emergency powers they have implemented and we will be watched and monitored in everything we do. Governments will capitalise on this crisis to do things they have never done before and none of the plebs will fight it.

Wow! That made me feel better. Cheers for that.

[Paragraph377]

Wow! That made me feel better. Cheers for that.
Don’t intentionally want to depress you, but people who understand the machinery of Government and understand how high level international agendas work can see that this crisis is much bigger than just a disease outbreak. The actions Governments are taking worldwide is unprecedented and far outweighs the risks. They will use this crisis to bring about plans and agendas years in the making.

[TWOTBAGS]

Aviation as we know it will change substantially. At the top end of the industry the days of the Quad jet are done, maybe on a few select routes but the worldwide pax volume will not return anywhere as quickly as most people here hope and as the 787/350 have demonstrated lower volume point to point is the new norm and the 77W will be the big boy in town. Oil prices will see the NG & CEO stay for a longer time than NEO & MAX (cough cough) would have liked, airframe residual prices will falter as demand will be much weaker.
With a more focused view on Aus, TT's days are numbered but JQ will return with LR & XLR picking up quite a bit with their lower cost base and the punters in saving mode. The QF group 65% line in the sand total market share will be challenged, VA will become a leaner beast. VARA, Network & QQ will fight it out for world Fokker domination as the fuel price remains low until they can no longer sustain spares support and then cheap as E170/E190 will take over.
A lot of the old salts will actually enjoy LWOP and say bugger it and take up residence at the holiday house, go fishing in their tinny on the goldy or die worrying about the share price of their portfolio... but all three of those options will be much better than EA10 and 22hr TOD in a "sunrise special A350".
Personally having survived the last 30 years in aviation this is the flush the toilet needed and whatever comes back will not be as big as before, management will chase yield, volume wont exist because there are too many punters that are scared enough to buy too much bog roll and every freezer in the metro area.
Cash is king right now and if your like me and out of a job, enjoy it, the sun will still come up. Fix up the pushy and go for a ride just not to the pub and watch the footy 'cause that pleasure palace is gooooone to.

[Chris2303]

Personally having survived the last 30 years in aviation this is the flush the toilet needed and whatever comes back will not be as big as before, management will chase yield, volume won't exist because there are too many punters that are scared enough to buy too much bog roll and every freezer in the metro area.
Cash is king right now and if your like me and out of a job, enjoy it, the sun will still come up. Fix up the pushy and go for a ride just not to the pub and watch the footy 'cause that pleasure palace is gooooone to.

Very well said and I agree entirely

[The Bullwinkle]

just not to the pub and watch the footy 'cause that pleasure palace is gooooone to.
The way St Kilda's started the season, probably not a bad thing!!!

[Anti Skid On]

The restoration of international flying is going to take some time, especially to the US. I cannot even imagine what a recovery looks like domestically after everyone is broke or behind a year in their repayments. Uncharted waters.

On the other hand, its not too farfetched to imagine a return to regulated fares and protectionism. I would be very surprised if any ME carrier ever has more than one or two services a day to Oz. The government is going to have to abandon its free market ideology in order to restore local jobs ( and crucially, the local tax base)
I think you've got the ME market a little wrong. For traffic to/from Australia and NZ the ME acts as an incredible hub from mainland Europe as well as Africa. They can consolidate passengers from regions with 100's of millions population.

However, having multiple carriers in close proximity (e.g. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) dilutes that potential market. I can see the first two merging, but they will still serve multiple cities between them, and they will still sardine backpackers into A380's

[Icarus2001]

The actions Governments are taking worldwide is unprecedented and far outweighs the risks. They will use this crisis to bring about plans and agendas years in the making.

Just to be clear, do you believe that the lunar landing was real?

[Bend alot]

charter and GA will be gone, all of it.

Given Cahills Crossing has been blocked with boulders and all remote communities shut QLD, NT & WA - charter and GA will continue in the top end states and territory.

Mustering shall continue - aviation is still essential in the regional areas.

[Australopithecus]

Given Cahills Crossing has been blocked with boulders and all remote communities shut QLD, NT & WA - charter and GA will continue in the top end states and territory.

Mustering shall continue - aviation is still essential in the regional areas.

And I imagine that the RFDS and other aeromed operations wont be drying up anytime soon.

[Australopithecus]

I think you've got the ME market a little wrong. For traffic to/from Australia and NZ the ME acts as an incredible hub from mainland Europe as well as Africa. They can consolidate passengers from regions with 100's of millions population.

However, having multiple carriers in close proximity (e.g. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) dilutes that potential market. I can see the first two merging, but they will still serve multiple cities between them, and they will still sardine backpackers into A380's

I understand the crossroads model pretty well because its pretty basic. I was speaking to the end of open skies and a return to a more protectionist model. Ie: local traffic with limited beyond rights. Its going to be a different, much poorer world. Expect to see some old fashioned remedies.

[Paragraph377]

Just to be clear, do you believe that the lunar landing was real?
Are you that ignorant that you believe everything will return to normal and the Government(s) won’t retain some of the draconian laws that they have rushed through and sneaking through as we speak? You are not aware of Western Governments reducing large cash denominations over the past few years? You are not aware that it is now illegal to spend over $10k in cash without declaring it? You obviously believe there is no such thing as fractional currency and you believe that quantitative easing (printing money) eventually reduces debt and doesn’t create inflation? You certainly don’t believe that a cashless society is bad and you are happy that we will end up with only electronic money and transfers, all which can be tracked and monitored by big brother, just like with crypto currency? Printed on nothing and backed by nothing.

And no, not a conspiracy theorist. Happy to answer the lunar question - yes it was real. And no, I don’t believe Mossad was responsible for 9/11 either nor do I believe that Elvis is alive.

[Icarus2001]

Can you name three of these "draconian new laws" passed in Australia? Other than the public health ones on isolation.

[sheikhthecamel]

Just to be clear, do you believe that the lunar landing was real?

Clearly you didn't get the memo that the Illuminati are making their move ;-)

[SecretAngel]

What the post-Covid aviation world looks like will depend heavily on how this crisis plays out over the next 6-18 months, or thereabouts. For example:

is the outbreak largely controlled within 6 months, or does it linger
is the death rate kept (relatively) low, which might limit the long-term impact on the public psyche - or is there a deep social change in mindsets about (among other things) being in close quarters on airplanes
how deep is the economic harm, and how quick is the economic recovery - which will affect how quickly demand for travel picks back up, especially in premium classes, corporate travel and leisure travel (so most travel)
how do the airlines fair, themselves - do they reduce fleet sizes during the shutdown, are they in a financially weak position coming out of it, how do key competitors come out of it etc.

But, I think there are a few things I'd be willing to bet on:

demand between Australia and Asia (possibly excepting Japan) will be lower, for longer, due to perception that travel there is higher risk - that may be a problem for Qantas, which has been wanting to redeploy the A380s onto Asian routes for a while
Qantas is going into this in a far stronger position than Virgin, and so will come out of it in a far stronger position - I'd expect Virgin to downsize aggressively (TT fleet, A330s etc) and to have limited capital to invest in 2021-23, which may allow Qantas to pick up market share and profits (Government assistance may affect this equation - it's becoming pretty clear that the Government wants to retain Virgin as a strong competitor)
if there is a bias towards Australians travelling to Western countries (Europe, US) or Latin America/South Africa - that might boost Qantas' PS plans (provided that premium travel recovers enough to fill the large premium class sections)
Qantas will hold onto the 747s until it can work out whether demand will pick up enough to fill the A380s.

[Dannyboy39]

I think some of the end games mooted in this thread are a bit OTT. I am fairly certain that confidence in flying will return pretty quickly. Right now it is very easy for people to think of a short-termist armageddon, but airlines do look at the longer term picture. People won't just stop travelling, especially with the cost base lowered even further. That said, clearly it'll take time to get up and running to full speed. In China, already you're seeing domestic traffic back up to 90% of previous levels so there's a glimmer of hope there already.

It's inevitable that some of those in the unfortunate position to be out of work right now (myself included) will not be asked back. In Europe we're seeing many airlines "not letting a good crisis go to waste", but it has been proven time and time again that the aviation industry is immensely resilient.

[machtuk]

Whatever is left of the world's devistated economies after this history making event Aviation will take a huge hit!
It will be a brave new world, Aviation will continue on but it won't continue on for all!

[SOPS]

There will probably be 20 major airlines worldwide. Qantas will be one of them. None of them will be in good financial standing initially, but that will change as they rebuild. Smaller players, regionals airlines, charter and GA will be gone, all of it. Freight operators will slowly grow.

This event has and will change society collectively. Don’t be surprised if in a few months time the World emerges from this with almost all terrorism eliminated, church doors never to be allowed to open again and we have a cashless society now using a global digital currency. Realestate as you currently know it will crash back to earth and they will ban the private use of Gold as currency or trade. Governments will retain the special emergency powers they have implemented and we will be watched and monitored in everything we do. Governments will capitalise on this crisis to do things they have never done before and none of the plebs will fight it.

Well they are very happy thoughts! Would you mind expanding on why all churches will be closed forever, money will disappear and Real Estate will crash. ( i agree it does not look good for Real Estate.. but you seem to suggesting the end of days.)

Could you kindly inform the rest of us how and why all this will happen? Im
very interested.

[73qanda]

The crappier the world gets, the more valuable land becomes. Whether it’s value is measured in dollars or potatoes doesn’t really matter. It provides security.

[SydAusSLF]

Very regular SLF and reader of pprune, I registered just now to post this to tell you guys to keep your chins up. Your industry is not dead - just in hibernation. I can tell you that there are plenty of people lile me who are already waiting to get back in the air - for me I know my travel pattern will be double what it's been pre-covid. So it's not all doom and gloom! The industries suffering right now will be filled by those industries like mine that are not currently in decline.

[neville_nobody]

People are forgetting that fuel is heading toward 5-10 cents a litre. That makes flying ludicrously efficient compared to most other forms of transport.

[dragon man]

The reality is that people need money to travel, premium class more money so successful business people and retirees. Many businesses will go broke here very quickly, retirees have seen their super go backwards, 80,000 people lost their jobs yesterday alone, landlords will either get no rent or reduced rent for a long time. Realistically without a quick return to normality unemployment in Australia will probably reach 15%. The AUS$ has also lost a lot of value so IMO there will not be anywhere near the demand for international travel. The wheels of commerce have jammed up badly, this is very very serious. My estimation is that for the next 18 months Qantas will survive with 14 787s and some of their 330s.

[Paragraph377]

Well they are very happy thoughts! Would you mind expanding on why all churches will be closed forever, money will disappear and Real Estate will crash. ( i agree it does not look good for Real Estate.. but you seem to suggesting the end of days.)

Could you kindly inform the rest of us how and why all this will happen? Im
very interested.
Why not? Religion is filled with Pedo’s, are exempt from paying tax, cost the Commonwealth hundreds of millions in inquiries and they are worth billions of dollars, possibly more. Doors were shut yesterday so why not take advantage of that and leave them shut for good and take all of their money to prop up the rest of society. Got nothing to do with end of days mate. More like commonsense.

[Buster Hyman]

Sweet! I was waiting for the first Nostradamus thread! So, who are we backing as the Third Anti-Christ???

[Heavy Metal]

I am a realist, as I'm sure many of you are. What can we expect when all this is over? Some have reason to believe there will be no more flying for the VA A330s, QF 747s/A380s and some are even speculating that Project Sunrise will be expedited and could be flying as early as late next year.

Qantas A380 OQI arrived in Dresden today, next inline, for the advancing fleet refurb, ferried direct from Sydney. So, the A380 is not left for dead yet, even by those planning Sunrise. For the A380, the Sydney-Darwin-London demoed over the next few days, could come back much earlier then the rest of the world, preceded by the B787 out of Perth, IF we can make the islands of Australia and UK virus free, and lock down the borders. Yes, an optimistic IF. All bets are off, until the virus is contained.

[Turnleft080]

Really disappointed in the way our PM, Premiers, health ministers, doctors, the whole western world have approached this whole thing. Not one of them have said,
do not be scared of this virus what you should be scared of is your own immune system? In the past month not one mention of your own immune system.
The human body was designed with a self defence mechanism. So use it. Boost it. Food is your medicine, not the corner drug store. We all know
that any drug you take lowers your gut flora hence lowers your immune system. If your going to eat junk food, smoke, don't get enough sleep, no proper nutrition
no exercise then the coronavirus can't wait to incubate inside you. However if you do the reverse your immune system will be bullet proof. So the pollies advise
you to stay indoors get depressed, no sunlit Vit D vital for fighting infections, look at screens all day which all lower your immune system. So in one paragraph
I've mentioned immune system 5 times. I believe that's 5 nil to me health minster. I preach what I say I'm in my late 50s and never bought a drug in 20 years, only
supplements, and the last time I caught the flu was in my 20s. Don't forget to drink your 8 glasses of water too. Now if everybody did this
the virus would die in it's own tracks within weeks. Hence no one would of lost their jobs. No economy melt down.

[neville_nobody]

The reality is that people need money to travel, premium class more money so successful business people and retirees. Many businesses will go broke here very quickly, retirees have seen their super go backwards, 80,000 people lost their jobs yesterday alone, landlords will either get no rent or reduced rent for a long time. Realistically without a quick return to normality unemployment in Australia will probably reach 15%. The AUS$ has also lost a lot of value so IMO there will not be anywhere near the demand for international travel. The wheels of commerce have jammed up badly, this is very very serious. My estimation is that for the next 18 months Qantas will survive with 14 787s and some of their 330s.

But the cost of traveling will decrease exponentially. At the current fuel prices it will cost around $4 in fuel per pax to do something like a SYD-MEL or BNE (That's around a 700km of travel). The Fees and Taxes will start looking absolutely outrageous at those sort of fuel prices.

[Bend alot]

Really disappointed in the way our PM, Premiers, health ministers, doctors, the whole western world have approached this whole thing. Not one of them have said,
do not be scared of this virus what you should be scared of is your own immune system? In the past month not one mention of your own immune system.
The human body was designed with a self defence mechanism. So use it. Boost it. Food is your medicine, not the corner drug store. We all know
that any drug you take lowers your gut flora hence lowers your immune system. If your going to eat junk food, smoke, don't get enough sleep, no proper nutrition
no exercise then the coronavirus can't wait to incubate inside you. However if you do the reverse your immune system will be bullet proof. So the pollies advise
you to stay indoors get depressed, no sunlit Vit D vital for fighting infections, look at screens all day which all lower your immune system. So in one paragraph
I've mentioned immune system 5 times. I believe that's 5 nil to me health minster. I preach what I say I'm in my late 50s and never bought a drug in 20 years, only
supplements, and the last time I caught the flu was in my 20s. Don't forget to drink your 8 glasses of water too. Now if everybody did this
the virus would die in it's own tracks within weeks. Hence no one would of lost their jobs. No economy melt down.
You sound almost as bullet proof as the school kids are - when did they give up smoking, bad food and screens?

Much of Italy and Europe in general eat very well.

[Turnleft080]

Bend alot OK put it this way, when you walk down the street or do the gardening you are exposed to thousands of germs. Your immune system fights them
off. The more you boost your immune system the less sick you get. The Italians they may eat well which is good, so why are they dying. What other things
will destroy your immune system. It comes down to other things relying on drug stores, no exercise, and yes smoking. When I was in Europe last smoking was
out of control. That's another 3 to me heath minister.

[Bend alot]

Bend alot OK put it this way, when you walk down the street or do the gardening you are exposed to thousands of germs. Your immune system fights them
off. The more you boost your immune system the less sick you get. The Italians they may eat well which is good, so why are they dying. What other things
will destroy your immune system. It comes down to other things relying on drug stores, no exercise, and yes smoking. When I was in Europe last smoking was
out of control. That's another 3 to me heath minister.

You missed it - kids that only eat nuggets and chips, wrapped in cotton wool since birth and spend all day on screens are not getting sick (in any numbers so we are told).

They do the complete opposite to you, yet no recorded case even in Australia.

At over 50 you are at risk and a good diet will not help if you have underlying health issues, they can not be known to you now.

All people in Australia have a higher chance of dying from this virus in 2020 than an aircraft crash & I think we only have 7 to date from the virus, with possibly around 20 in aviation.

[nnc0]

The outcome would differ greatly the sooner a cure or effective treatment is identified and put into practice.

(I don't have a lot of faith in our medical systems and scientists so I am not particularly optimistic on that happening sooner rather than later).

[alleyquit]

It's now a big problem and we need to be careful and avoid every kind of crowd.

[krismiler]

The big question is of course, how long this goes on for. A vaccine available in mass quantities tomorrow would end the immediate crisis and we could concentrate on the economy, a second wave of a more severe virus strain with a higher mortality rate would plunge us into a depression that would still affect our grandchildren.

Generally people will downgrade a step or two, first class to business, business to economy, full service to low cost. Long haul holiday destination to regional, regional to domestic. The problem experienced in the UK after the financial crisis was that people's spending levels didn't instantly rebound once things improved. Money saving habits were ingrained and once it was realised that supermarket own brands did the same job as premium ones, you didn't actually need to upgrade your cell phone every year and a take away with supermarket wine was as nice as a meal in a poncy restaurant, at 1/4 of the price, it was hard to justify going back to the old ways. This was especially applicable if you were caught with your pants down financially having little in the bank and heavy monthly commitments.

After this pandemic and worldwide depression I predict a much smaller airline industry to emerge, similar to before deregulation. Airlines without a very healthy balance sheet before this started, or government backing will go under. What’s left will be nationalised or subject to heavy controls regarding routes, timetables and fares.

For most A380s it’s almost certainly long term storage for a couple of years and only back on a few limited routes where the numbers add up, if and when it does return. A small number of airlines might have the critical mass in terms of viable routes to operate them on. The B777-300 becomes the new A380

Probably the final nail for the B737 MAX as well. Why waste billions in patching up a fundamentally flawed design for which future demand has evaporated ? There may have been a case for a solution when the order book was in the thousands, but not any more. The current number of narrow bodies already flying will be able to cope with the reduced demand and the lower oil price will extend the life of the older less efficient versions. Far fewer reasons to spend on a new airframe when there isn't that much difference in the operating cost vs a 10 year old model.

The US government will likely take over Boeing due to its importance to the economy and as a defence supplier. The downturn could be used to develop an all new replacement aircraft.

I believe that the future is now all twins, with A320/B737s being used to the limits of their range and B777-200/B787s taking over from there. These types are already in existence in significant numbers and economical to operate, even though fuel price won’t be much of an issue for a while. High density seating in the narrow bodies with 10 and 9 across in the Boeings, possibly a couple of rows of business class will be the new norm. The A350 may be a better aircraft than the B787 but it won't be able to compete with second hand B777/B787s being sold at fire sale prices by bankrupt or downsizing airlines. The newer and larger Airbus variants such as the A321NEO could replace widebodies on many routes which would be unable to sustain a 300 seat aircraft.

Suites and lie flat seats won’t be filling up anytime soon. A holiday is likely to be an annual trip to a short/mid range destination on a low cost airline, rather than long haul on a premium carrier. Domestic tourism replaces international holidays for many people. Bali and Fiji become exotic destinations rather than run of the mill for Australian travellers.

[palebird]

You sound almost as bullet proof as the school kids are - when did they give up smoking, bad food and screens?

Much of Italy and Europe in general eat very well.

Europeans tend to eat well but they smoke and drink. As far as kids go I have raised a number of them. Made them eat healthy but lot's of their friends survive on junk food and do not exercise. The general population is also addicted to pharmaceuticals which is a tragedy. People have gotten lazier and stupider. Oh well. Why are the numbers so high in Italy? Do some real looking at how they are collecting and presenting the numbers in Italy and you should be able to figure it out. This entire panic is nothing but a big cloud of bulls..t. But, yes, we needed a good flush. Something had to happen and here it is.

[Neektu]

Are you sure you are not a direct descendent from Nostradamus? :E

[j3pipercub]

I’m so glad I have got the truth from PPRUNE, not the illuminati shills...

[oicur12.again]

“Can you name three of these "draconian new laws" passed in Australia?”

Not sure about oz but here in the US, the DOJ is requesting the right for “indefinite detention without trial” under the cover of caronavirus.

I agree with the OP, cunning governments never waste an opportunity to obtain more power.

The Patriot Act was introduced shortly following Sep11 and most members later admitted they did not read the proposal.

The results are playing out now with arguments raging about data collection and spying.

[woptb]

The travelling public has a very short memory.
In a year to 18 months,apart from the sad loss of some familiar outfits,people will have forgotten. People are far more resilient and selfish and will want to fly. As for freight flying dropping off,quite the opposite,certainly the last outfit I worked for is balls out!

[EXEL1966]

I believe that if this crisis is contained within 3 months there will be an almighty surge for air travel once again, but If it goes on any longer than that it will be very different!

[Lead Balloon]

“Can you name three of these "draconian new laws" passed in Australia?”

Errrm, just passed a TV where the ‘tickertape’ news said “Nationwide crackdown on social gatherings”. Borders have been closed. Overseas travel has been ‘banned’.

Have you been living under a rock?

Before this started, a criminal trial was held in complete secrecy in Canberra - in a country that claims to be governed by the rule of law. Journalists’ homes were raided as they had the temerity to try to discover and disclose the truth about the actions of members of the ADF. You now have to explain why you want to spend $10,000 or more in cash. The bureaucrats who think all these things are “good” for us will be licking their lips at the controls being put in place now.

[SITTINGBULL]

I am a realist, as I'm sure many of you are. What can we expect when all this is over? Some have reason to believe there will be no more flying for the VA A330s, QF 747s/A380s and some are even speculating that Project Sunrise will be expedited and could be flying as early as late next year.


She'll be right

[Icarus2001]

Lead B, these are patently temporary "laws" under the public health act not the stealthy introduction of George Orwell type laws, you know very well what he and I were referring to. The trial "in camera" and the journalists raids were pre-virus so not really relevant. If a journalist has been seen to break the law why should the police not investigate? Why do they get a free pass?

[directimped]

L. If a journalist has been seen to break the law why should the police not investigate? Why do they get a free pass?
Good question, why don't you ask Angus Taylor? The cops dropped that case pretty quickly.

Or maybe Bridget McKenzie.

So many examples to choose from. Such a trustworthy government we have here.

[poteroo]

The immediate future for the travel industry is probably dependant on what all we elderly travellers decide to do: call quits on overseas travel, (insurance/superannuation losses/increasing physical difficulty), or, limit the longer distance travel and keep closer to home. From what I hear in my age group, it is going to be some of both. The real determining factor is probably financial - we just won't have the discretionary spending power of before. In my case, it has been 2 overseas trips, often cruises + air travel), per year, and many older than me,(79), do 3 per year. I have already lost a quantum equal to my GFC losses: from which we never completely recovered. This time it is going to be bad, and many, many of my fellow SMSF owners will begin the Age Pension in the very near future. Our future travel prospects are dim, and this will take some time to replace. The Boomers were a 'once-in-a-lifetime' phenomena.

[Lead Balloon]

Lead B, these are patently temporary "laws" under the public health act not the stealthy introduction of George Orwell type laws, you know very well what he and I were referring to. The trial "in camera" and the journalists raids were pre-virus so not really relevant. If a journalist has been seen to break the law why should the police not investigate? Why do they get a free pass?
The “pre-virus” stuff is directly relevant: It shows the steady erosion of individual rights and basic precepts of the rule of law.

Re the journalists, it’s about who the police choose to investigate versus those they don’t. Hunt down and punish any outsider who exposes the truth. Don’t hunt down and punish insiders who are responsible for the conduct that is exposed.

The ease with which all these “temporary” arrangements are imposed will give the bureaucracy a ‘taste’. History demonstrate that practically unfettered power is very addictive.

From my perspective the most interesting aspect of this experiment will be how the authorities practically react to disobedience. Are they going to build and fill new gaols with the dozen people who attend a funeral and the two dozen who attend a wedding? If a bunch of mates jump in a car and go for a drive ‘just for the fun of it’, are the authorities going to put the lads in gaol? Some governments are talking about releasing existing ‘low risk’ prisoners from gaol.

Does a person who has lost everything care about a $13,000 fine? Might as well make it $13million. Probably get to court in around 2022.

[ADawg]

I was employed in the finance industry during the GFC. Maybe some here were still in short pants at school when that blew through town. Here is a snapshot what I witnessed while servicing clients.

Many lost their home/investment property/car
Some committed suicide
Many lost their jobs and never returned to their original occupation or pre GFC salary level
Many superannuation accounts halved (yes they came back eventually) this delayed many retiring which completely screwed opportunities for the young.
Some experienced mental illness and were never the same.
Many went bankrupt.

Considering this appears many times more damaging then the GFC (this is a health crisis and an economic crisis) I wouldn't expect to see the bounce in air travel as many have stated.
The wealth of millions of people has been destroyed and I suspect we are still in the early days of an undefined timeline. How is the government going to bail out all of these people and the companies they work for? More money printing? Taxation?
Some other points to consider:
Consumers are carrying far more debt than in the GFC. Australians have the highest private debt levels per capita in the world.
Anyone under say 35 hasn't seen bad times as a working adult thus the appetite for risk in many was extreme.
Interest rates were higher at around 7% from memory and the RBA had plenty of room to move - today they are out of ammunition with regards to rates
The issues of the GFC were never resolved - "the can was just kicked down the road" as they say

I suspect this is a brave new world where the excesses and luxuries experienced by so many are gone for now including air travel and holidays.

This is a huge sh*t sandwich and we are all going to take a bite - unfortunately even our kids and grand kids.

If you weren't working with a mortgage over your head during a recession or the GFC you wouldn't understand why so many people have a grim outlook.

[Lead Balloon]

The voice of experience. Thanks ADawg.

And don’t forget: During the GFC (and in the wake of the ‘87 ‘crash’) government was not directing businesses not to operate. The schools were still open and the hospitals operated as normal.

[kingRB]

Interest rates were higher at around 7% from memory and the RBA had plenty of room to move - today they are out of ammunition with regards to rates
The issues of the GFC were never resolved - "the can was just kicked down the road" as they say


Oh they have more room to move (for the immediate time being)... into the negative. Thats where the 10K cash ban, bail in laws and banks sudden "inability" to allow anyone to withdraw large sums of cash will all come quickly together in the worst possible way for the average punter.
Totally agree though - most of the general public think there is just a health crisis going on at the moment. While true - this is just most likely the catalyst that sets off total economic collapse. Either through depression, or, more likely, hyper inflation. All federal reserves that matter have the money printers going at maximum now.
We are now edging closer and closer to people realizing the total con that is going on here and losing complete confidence in Government issued fiat.

[zanthrus]

Thinking of withdrawing most of my cash from the bank in case it all collapses. Maybe safer under the mattress than in a bank?

[Lead Balloon]

If the hyper-inflation to which kingRB referred occurs, any cash you stash under the mattress will be worth less than toilet paper. Maybe that’s why people are hoarding toilet paper!

[kingRB]

Indeed LB. It's pretty clear since the GFC governments don't have the stomach to allow a wash out the system with a hard reset (depression) - so on the endless money printing goes. Sorry, economic "stimulus". All evidence leads me to the opinion of an incoming currency crisis.

Depression or hyper inflation, cash in the bank or cash under your mattress you are going to be screwed either way. Do your own due diligence, obviously don't take my word for it - but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.

[Buster Hyman]

Thinking of withdrawing most of my cash from the bank in case it all collapses. Maybe safer under the mattress than in a bank?
See! Malcolm was right!!!!

[Buster Hyman]

How is the government going to bail out all of these people and the companies they work for?
The queues at Centrelink seems to illustrate a lack of understanding in this regard. There's only so much they can hand out.

[krismiler]

After nearly 30 years without a recession, it's only Australians in their mid 40s and older who have any grasp on what really difficult times are like. For those of us our mid fifties, we would have seen a reasonable amount but still nothing like our parents and grandparents experienced during and after WW2, particularly if they originated from Europe. There seems to be very little resilience and it's surprising to see what's happening this early on in the crisis with Centrelink offices being overwhelmed and panic buying after only a few days. It's like mass hysteria has gripped a large section the country. Other nations seem to be faring better, especially in Asia where there isn't a nanny state mentality.

I feel most sorry for those close to retirement who have had the value of their investments decimated and don't have enough working years left to recover, their golden years won't be quite so shiny. Being broke at 30 is bad enough, at 60 it's a disaster.

A recession is when your neighbour loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours.

[Lead Balloon]

Indeed LB. It's pretty clear since the GFC governments don't have the stomach to allow a wash out the system with a hard reset (depression) - so on the endless money printing goes. Sorry, economic "stimulus". All evidence leads me to the opinion of an incoming currency crisis.

Depression or hyper inflation, cash in the bank or cash under your mattress you are going to be screwed either way. Do your own due diligence, obviously don't take my word for it - but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.
One of the other interesting things I will be watching is whether the Federal government continues to try to bring in a few hundred thousand migrants each year, to continue to feed the residential property Ponzi scheme. Won’t it be great when everyone’s house is worth a few million on average. We’ll all be ‘wealthy’.

[Homesick-Angel]

My guesses (And that’s all they are)

Still pain in 6 months but plenty getting their jobs back before then (in some form)

Quite A few boomers close to retirement pulling the pin early

In 12 months a certain level of normalcy for the drivers, but under a drastically different model for the airlines.

The airlines will use this to aggressively reduce wages and conditions for the next 5-10 years.

people still have a need and want to move around the world and there will be a vaccine within 6 months.

Who knows..

[SOPS]

My guesses (And that’s all they are)

Still pain in 6 months but plenty getting their jobs back before then (in some form)

Quite A few boomers close to retirement pulling the pin early

In 12 months a certain level of normalcy for the drivers, but under a drastically different model for the airlines.

The airlines will use this to aggressively reduce wages and conditions for the next 5-10 years.

people still have a need and want to move around the world and there will be a vaccine within 6 months.

Who knows..


The ‘ boomers’ as you love to call us.. have just had millions knocked of their super. What makes you think we will
be in a position to retire early?

[Jock p]

Really disappointed in the way our PM, Premiers, health ministers, doctors, the whole western world have approached this whole thing. Not one of them have said,
do not be scared of this virus what you should be scared of is your own immune system? In the past month not one mention of your own immune system.
The human body was designed with a self defence mechanism. So use it. Boost it. Food is your medicine, not the corner drug store. We all know
that any drug you take lowers your gut flora hence lowers your immune system. If your going to eat junk food, smoke, don't get enough sleep, no proper nutrition
no exercise then the coronavirus can't wait to incubate inside you. However if you do the reverse your immune system will be bullet proof. So the pollies advise
you to stay indoors get depressed, no sunlit Vit D vital for fighting infections, look at screens all day which all lower your immune system. So in one paragraph
I've mentioned immune system 5 times. I believe that's 5 nil to me health minster. I preach what I say I'm in my late 50s and never bought a drug in 20 years, only
supplements, and the last time I caught the flu was in my 20s. Don't forget to drink your 8 glasses of water too. Now if everybody did this
the virus would die in it's own tracks within weeks. Hence no one would of lost their jobs. No economy melt down.
Excellent post and spot on. The importance of self management in these times is real and will mitigate greatly any effects of the virus. I learnt this the hard way with fatigue overwhelming me and compromising my career. I hope people take this opportunity to spend time on yourselves and others while seeking the knowledge that exists to get the mind and body back into its natural state. Im 60 and have never felt better!!

[Jock p]

If the hyper-inflation to which kingRB referred occurs, any cash you stash under the mattress will be worth less than toilet paper. Maybe that’s why people are hoarding toilet paper!
If credit markets lock up physical cash will be 'valuable' It can happen.

[Paragraph377]

The ‘ boomers’ as you love to call us.. have just had millions knocked of their super. What makes you think we will
be in a position to retire early?
And whatyou are really going to hate hearing is that all Politicians superannuation is protected under legislation. That means, currently if a pilot has $2m in super, he has probably lost around 10%, or $200k. If a slimey Pollie has $2m in super he has lost.......$0. Plus he isn’t out of a job either. They naturally don’t like people knowing about this huge perk, but it’s true. So now you know why they really don’t give a **** if they crash the economy due to incompetence or deliberately. The Dealer never loses.

[Sholayo]

Dear lamenting friends,
I am more hopeful than you for the same reason I was pretty sure Greta's BS will not kill air travel
.
There's so many jobs depending on air travel in non-direct way. Travel & leisure industry is obvious - but remember: these are restaurants, car rentals, diving schools, street food vendors, even groceries and pharamcies all around the glob. There are countries which depend mostly on tourism It's also very likely that some many national parks around the glob would be deserted and with most of it's animals killed to decorate houses and feed "traditional Chinsese medicine". I doubt that rhinos of Nepal, gorillas of Virunga and such would survive without rich visitors.

So there will be a lot of effort put to bring tourist back to Barcelona, Venice, Phuket and so on.

Have faith, brothers and sisters.
&

[Sorath]

Dear lamenting friends,
I am more hopeful than you for the same reason I was pretty sure Greta's BS will not kill air travel
.
There's so many jobs depending on air travel in non-direct way. Travel & leisure industry is obvious - but remember: these are restaurants, car rentals, diving schools, street food vendors, even groceries and pharamcies all around the glob. There are countries which depend mostly on tourism It's also very likely that some many national parks around the glob would be deserted and with most of it's animals killed to decorate houses and feed "traditional Chinsese medicine". I doubt that rhinos of Nepal, gorillas of Virunga and such would survive without rich visitors.

So there will be a lot of effort put to bring tourist back to Barcelona, Venice, Phuket and so on.

Have faith, brothers and sisters.
&
Hope it's true... COVID hitting hard in Spain... mind-blowing. I was hoping to start training in April and I have postponed till October. Hopefully in two years it washes away and we can continue the tendency of growth, but it all depends on how harsh the economical situation is after COVID is no longer a major issue... peoples pockets are going to be empty.

[oicur12.again]

“but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.”

Agreed. There is a ****storm on the horizon the likes of which we have not seen.

Not sure what is happening in oz but here in the US, you can no longer find gold bullion for sale.

[rattman]

Hope it's true... COVID hitting hard in Spain... mind-blowing. I was hoping to start training in April and I have postponed till October. Hopefully in two years it washes away and we can continue the tendency of growth, but it all depends on how harsh the economical situation is after COVID is no longer a major issue... peoples pockets are going to be empty.

Yeah spain is bad, if you are into aviation youtubers mentour pilot is based in pain is on lockdown atm

[kingRB]

If credit markets lock up physical cash will be 'valuable' It can happen.

credit markets wont be locking up - just look at what the US Federal Reserve announced on sunday night

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-23/coronavirus-fed-s-infinite-cash-tested-in-world-of-leverage

"“there is an infinite amount of cash in the Federal Reserve. We will do whatever we need to do to make sure there’s enough cash in the banking system.”

If that statement alone doesn't chill you to the bone, I don't know what would.

When people start wondering why we pay taxes when Federal Reserves can print "infinite cash" - the system is going to collapse.

[Okihara]

Don’t intentionally want to depress you, but people who understand the machinery of Government and understand how high level international agendas work can see that this crisis is much bigger than just a disease outbreak. The actions Governments are taking worldwide is unprecedented and far outweighs the risks. They will use this crisis to bring about plans and agendas years in the making.
Watch that video by the Intercept on that. And for heaps of very, very good investigative journalism, tune in to https://theintercept.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niwNTI9Nqd8

[Australopithecus]

Suddenly those people lining up at the gun shops don’t seem quite so stupid.

[Paragraph377]

credit markets wont be locking up - just look at what the US Federal Reserve announced on sunday night

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-23/coronavirus-fed-s-infinite-cash-tested-in-world-of-leverage

"“there is an infinite amount of cash in the Federal Reserve. We will do whatever we need to do to make sure there’s enough cash in the banking system.”

If that statement alone doesn't chill you to the bone, I don't know what would.

When people start wondering why we pay taxes when Federal Reserves can print "infinite cash" - the system is going to collapse.
Yep. They’ve got to keep that Ponzi scheme going until the very last minute. Quantitative easing, zero to negative interest rates, whatever they can do to keep a dead system alive. The USA alone has a likely debt of $250 trillion. The collapse has started and a painful reset is inevitable. The Federal Reserve is a joke, it isn’t even a bank. It’s a private cabal. People don’t even realise that.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Yhe Federal Reserve is a joke, it isn’t even a bank. It’s a private cabal.
It is actually owned by the banks themselves. Congress even studied the interlocking relationships between the banks and directors in 1976: Federal Reserve Directors: A Study of Corporate and Banking Influence : Staff Report for the Committee on Banking, Currency and Housing, House of Representatives, Ninety-Fourth Congress, Second Session (https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1058)

[Paragraph377]

“but i'd be getting out of any cash positions and into precious metals / hard stores of value as quickly as you can.”

Agreed. There is a ****storm on the horizon the likes of which we have not seen.

Not sure what is happening in oz but here in the US, you can no longer find gold bullion for sale.
Totally agree and have been doing this for years. However, my concern is that they will ‘pull a Roosevelt’ on the people, again. For those who have mot studied economics or history in general; “Executive Order 6102 is a United States presidential executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States".

The bastards can change any rule or law as and when they see fit. Goal posts that are not set in stone. I do not trust any western Government to ever act honestly and in the best interest of the people. There is always a catch.

[AerialPerspective]

Why not? Religion is filled with Pedo’s, are exempt from paying tax, cost the Commonwealth hundreds of millions in inquiries and they are worth billions of dollars, possibly more. Doors were shut yesterday so why not take advantage of that and leave them shut for good and take all of their money to prop up the rest of society. Got nothing to do with end of days mate. More like commonsense.

If it did happen and they stayed shut, my only response would be ‘about bloody time’.

We could then get on with moving society forward without lingering rubbish from Bronze Age myths.

[towrope]

Here in the US we don't have any viable choice but to travel by air for long distances. I think it'll pick up here sooner and faster. Our passenger rail infrastructure has been purposely neglected to the point of near obsolescence and people aren't interested in a three or four-day drive. How and which US airlines will survive is an interesting thought exercise since regionals tend to be more on the edge, and keeping service on the non-major routes may require regionals to be completely absorbed into the surviving majors. The aircraft are already configured so we'd have to accept the pitch and density inside, though for the interim middle seats could be kept empty, etc.

[krismiler]

Regionals will be subsidised if required to maintain essential services. Possibly a single turboprop flight a day but communities won’t be cut off.

[f1yhigh]

Rumour spreading that Cobham to grow and become new domestic competition for QF if VA goes under? I don't see Cobham 737s being a thing but it's just a rumour after all...

[splat72]

Rumour spreading that Cobham to grow and become new domestic competition for QF if VA goes under? I don't see Cobham 737s being a thing but it's just a rumour after all...

Has anyone told Cobham about that!

[blow.n.gasket]

Would a post COVID19 predicted secular Bear market environment , be conducive for the breaking up of the Qantas / Jetstar bastardised Union ?
A perfect excuse to fend off accusations of a monopoly in the event of Virgin not existing if and when the forced shutdown of the Worlds economy is finally reversed .

[Buster Hyman]

Would a post COVID19 predicted secular Bear market environment , be conducive for the breaking up of the Qantas / Jetstar bastardised Union ?
A perfect excuse to fend off accusations of a monopoly in the event of Virgin not existing if and when the forced shutdown of the Worlds economy is finally reversed .
Can't see QF giving up their LCC, who would subsequently undercut them with a lower cost base from Day 1. If anything, I'd foresee QF running a diminished Domestic network & leaving most of that to JQ, and JQ running a diminished International network (read Bogan destinations) with QF going back to its roots predominantly.
That's my Nostradamus moment.

[B772]

The Socialists pushing global extinction, global warming, climate change etc etc would love to see QF/JS prosper without VA. Even here in Vic we have a Labor Premier who would love to see the private hospital network collapse and then take them over.

[directimped]

The scientists pushing global extinction, global warming, climate change etc etc r.

There fixed that for you 772, must have been that damn autocorrect again.

[Lapon]

Rumour spreading that Cobham to grow and become new domestic competition for QF if VA goes under? I don't see Cobham 737s being a thing but it's just a rumour after all...

An 80 year old defence contractor all of a sudden wants in on RPT you suggest? :rolleyes:

[f1yhigh]

An 80 year old defence contractor all of a sudden wants in on RPT you suggest? :rolleyes:

It's something I heard from someone else, which is why I came here to see if anyone in the know can shed more light on it. Clearly I have been fed horses**t.

As for JQ running a diminished international network, would that be the end of the 787s (over to QF?)?

[Blitzkrieger]

An 80 year old defence contractor all of a sudden wants in on RPT you suggest? https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies2/icon_rolleyes.gif

Cobham already operate somewhere between 10% and 20% of the QF domestic (RPT) schedule on behalf of Qantas. Whether Qantas intend to expand that operation to absorb any under supply is doubtful, Network would be the obvious choice.

[Lapon]

Very true Blitz, rather I roll my eyes at the suggestion of operating (in a business sense) RPT vesus operating (actual flying) RPT under contract with Qantas.

I dont think Cobham or Alliance have any desire to put thier own skin in the Australian RPT game - a sensible decision in my opinion.

[kiwi grey]

Would a post COVID19 predicted secular Bear market environment , be conducive for the breaking up of the Qantas / Jetstar bastardised Union ?
A perfect excuse to fend off accusations of a monopoly in the event of Virgin not existing if and when the forced shutdown of the Worlds economy is finally reversed .

If QANTAS needs a bailout, I would expect that one of the conditions would be a 'structural separation' of QANTAS & JetStar. That's because if QANTAS needs a bailout, Virgin Australia will already have gone under.

[VH DSJ]

An 80 year old defence contractor all of a sudden wants in on RPT you suggest? :rolleyes:

That's no longer the case. Cobham was taken over by Advent, a private equity company, earlier in the year. https://www.adventinternational.com/advent-completes-4-billion-takeover-of-cobham/

A private equity company would want a return on its investment so where Cobham goes from here is anyone's guess, but it will surely depend on market forces post Covid-19.

[f1yhigh]

If post lockdown in China is any indication of how people are going to react, I see a surge of people wanting to escape, to holiday, to experience, to adventure and to just live life.

I see a strong rebound in tourism, the business side maybe the issue. With trillions being pumped into the economy, that doesn’t just disappear, it’s where it ends up that will be the deciding factor of the business rebound.

Which begs the question, and I hope everyone can be honest about this... who is considering switching to Cargo ops after the dust settles? I could see a mass exodus from mainline to EFA.

[Lapon]

A private equity company would want a return on its investment so where Cobham goes from here is anyone's guess, but it will surely depend on market forces post Covid-19.

Not withstanding the fact that anything in the universe is possible, a return on its investment would hardly come from deviating into Australian RPT, even before considering Qantas own the B717s anyway.

I suspect any rumour stemmed from a momentary thought of 'I wonder who the next biggest operator after VA is?' and decided 'oh Cobham!' (or Alliance I dont know).

Hopefully VA stays put, but I suspect that in the worse case the probable outcome would be a foriegn investor rebuilding VA in a new brand in and under a different business model.

[Icarus2001]

If post lockdown in China is any indication of how people are going to react, I see a surge of people wanting to escape, to holiday, to experience, to adventure and to just live life. I see a strong rebound in tourism, I agree. I think there will be a great deal of pent up demand. Families isolated at home are spending very little money (assuming they are receiveing an income) when they are permitted to travel again people will want to "reward" themselves with a holiday, preferably overseas. Someone made the point on another thread that Bali could rebound early. I totally agree. The Indonesians can just sweep Bali clean and it matters not what happens elsewhere in Indonesia so long as they can say "Bali is safe". People have not had much choice in where to spend their discretionary spending (delivered food) so those with jobs will be keen to spend. Of course money is going to be very cheap for the next five years at least. Cheap money (debt) and pent up demand, what could go wrong?

[Potsie Weber]

Whilst a vaccine is a long way off, if at all, a return to a more normal life in the near future will be dependent upon improvements in testing, treatments and tracking.

No doubt more sophisticated and timely tests will become available that will enable travel to open up again. It’s probably more up to how society will react to such measures. Would you accept being screen tested before you got on a flight? Disembarking? Test positive and you are taken to quarantine (perhaps paid for by ticket levies). Would you be willing to be tracked so that contact tracing could be done efficiently? Lots of big brother stuff here.

Treatments should also improve significantly over the coming months, as long as the health system doesn’t get overloaded, treatments will improve outcomes with better facilities, equipment and new drugs.

I do have confidence that life will return to a new normal in around 6mths and that will include the ability to travel and enjoy life.

[PoppaJo]

Bali will go nuts. Agree. My 18 Year old Son and his entire year level are on standby to head there right when the thing dies off. They were originally going in May, so got the travel credits and accommodation vouchers for future use.

There would have been tens of thousands possible more, bookings and plans canceled, refunded, or vouchers which people need to use.

Jetstar did not refund anyone also, so there are millions with travel credits and they have to use these within a tight timeframe.

[Turnleft080]

I do have confidence that life will return to a new normal in around 6mths and that will include the ability to travel and enjoy life.

My judgement 2 months if everyone I mean everyone took a flu shot everyday. That consists of garlic, ginger, onion,Vitamin C fruits & veggies
little bit of sun Vit D, little bit of fermented food good bacteria, 8 glasses of water, exercise, calcium etc ...
We go to the expense of using the correct grade of fuel/oil for you car, protecting your computer with the best anti-virus, though people
forget how to look after the human body.

[Stickshift3000]

My judgement 2 months if everyone I mean everyone took a flu shot everyday. That consists of garlic, ginger, onion,Vitamin C fruits & veggies
little bit of sun Vit D, little bit of fermented food good bacteria, 8 glasses of water, exercise, calcium etc ...
We go to the expense of using the correct grade of fuel/oil for you car, protecting your computer with the best anti-virus, though people
forget how to look after the human body.

You should definitely be advising the medical experts with such wisdom.

[dragon man]

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/qantas-to-ground-six-a380-post-covid-19/

[Derfred]

I do have confidence that life will return to a new normal in around 6mths and that will include the ability to travel and enjoy life.

My judgement 2 months if everyone I mean everyone took a flu shot everyday. That consists of garlic, ginger, onion,Vitamin C fruits & veggies
little bit of sun Vit D, little bit of fermented food good bacteria, 8 glasses of water, exercise, calcium etc ...
We go to the expense of using the correct grade of fuel/oil for you car, protecting your computer with the best anti-virus, though people
forget how to look after the human body.

If that’s what floats your boat, knock yourself out.

But none of those things will prevent you from catching and spreading a virus like Covid-19. They won’t even reduce the likelihood.

So keep your crap to yourself, please.

[f1yhigh]

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/qantas-to-ground-six-a380-post-covid-19/

Sounds a bit far fetched, early retirement for A380s that haven't had the refurbishment? I don't think so.

[Turnleft080]

Mr Derferd
I preach what I say haven't caught the flu in 30 years still jog 2 hours at 60 years young.
I am so sorry for being healthy. I really am.

[ADawg]

Sorry folks, I think the demand for holidays and travel will be very low for some time.
The economies of the world have effectively stopped. Prior to this mess starting the world economic growth was the slowest since the GFC. Numerous industries have been decimated from this virus - Retail, tourism, education and I dare say the housing market isn't too far away.
Very big employers. We are still dealing with the health issue of this virus. The economic issue has really just started.
Anyone who was a casual or a contractor is applying for benefits. Guess what those who have been stood down are doing? Burning through their annual leave. The rest of us who still have jobs and leave balances are too **** scared and will hang onto the dollars.
If you're a self funded retiree well you have just taken a 30% hit to your super - sort of dampens the spirit to spend cash even when the balance of the account starts to recover.
The call is out for governments of the world to spend big to get the wheels turning again - so where is all of this money coming from? I suspect increased taxation, cancellation of projects, goodbye tax free super. All of this kills discretionary spending.
Sure it will bounce back but my guess is it will be far different to what it was 8 weeks ago.
I hope I am wrong but this is a 1-100 year event - nobody really knows what is behind door number 2.

[Progress Wanchai]

Bali will go nuts. Agree. My 18 Year old Son and his entire year level are on standby to head there right when the thing dies off. They were originally going in May, so got the travel credits and accommodation vouchers for future use.

There would have been tens of thousands possible more, bookings and plans canceled, refunded, or vouchers which people need to use.

Jetstar did not refund anyone also, so there are millions with travel credits and they have to use these within a tight timeframe.

Can’t fault 18 year olds for not understanding what’s happening. For them a recession is something that only happens in history books. In fact very few Australians under the age of 50 have seen a recession in their working lives. We’d arguably have been better off had Rudd let Australia correct its debt levels/asset prices in 2008. By deferring that boom/bust cycle we’ve simply set ourselves up for a bigger fall this time around by having world record levels of personal debt. Never mind, it was fun while it lasted.

My best guess is it’ll take 5 years to recover to 2019 levels of economic activity in a typical boom/bust credit cycle. That’s providing we’re now entering a standard recession and aren’t descending into a 1930’s depression. In that scenario then it would seem the government is determined to turn on the money printing machine and we enter the slow decline that Japan has been experiencing for 20 years rather than a short, sharp shock followed by a rebound.

[SOPS]

I’m sorry ..did I just read this right .. ‘Bali will go nuts?’. What dont people understand? This is not your common cold. This is not going away. This is like smallpox before a vaccination.

I
There wont be ‘Bali going nuts’ for years. ( unless you want to die). Things have changed big time. You won’t get travel insurance for Covid.My sister in law is a doctor .. and she says .. don’t except to travel overseas for the next 2 years..


we are in a whole new world

[Going Boeing]

The number of A380’s being permanently grounded around the world is steadily increasing, Lufthansa has announced that it is disposing of 6 (out of 14) A380’s. Other retirements being made by the airline include 7 A340-600’s, 3 A340-300’s, 5 B747-400’s & 10 A320’s, along with their entire German Wings subsidiary.

[dragon man]

I’m sorry ..did I just read this right .. ‘Bali will go nuts?’. What dont people understand? This is not your common cold. This is not going away. This is like smallpox before a vaccination.


There will be ‘Bali going nuts’ for years. ( unless you want to die). Things have changed big time. You won’t get travel insurance for Covid.My sister in law is a doctor .. and she says .. don’t except to travel overseas for the next 2 years..


we are in a whole new world

A voice of reason, anyone who travels overseas without travel insurance needs their head read, will you get travel insurance when the skies open up? Who knows but it will certainly exclude the virus and anything that can be attached to it like cancellations due to an outbreak somewhere.

[rattman]

A voice of reason, anyone who travels overseas without travel insurance needs their head read, will you get travel insurance when the skies open up? Who knows but it will certainly exclude the virus and anything that can be attached to it like cancellations due to an outbreak somewhere.

They already have for a few years, many travel insurances had a pandemic clause thanks to ebola, sars, swine and bird flu

[kingRB]

Yep. They’ve got to keep that Ponzi scheme going until the very last minute. Quantitative easing, zero to negative interest rates, whatever they can do to keep a dead system alive. The USA alone has a likely debt of $250 trillion. The collapse has started and a painful reset is inevitable. The Federal Reserve is a joke, it isn’t even a bank. It’s a private cabal. People don’t even realise that.

did you catch this little gem that just popped up last few days?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/yellen-says-the-fed-doesnt-need-to-buy-equities-now-but-congress-should-reconsider-allowing-it.html

Now the Federal Reserve is petitioning Congress to be able to purchase public equities.

[Paragraph377]

did you catch this little gem that just popped up last few days?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/yellen-says-the-fed-doesnt-need-to-buy-equities-now-but-congress-should-reconsider-allowing-it.html

Now the Federal Reserve is petitioning Congress to be able to purchase public equities.
Sure did kingRB. They are making things up as they are going along. They are desperate. The house of cards is collapsing and they know it. They will stop at nothing to keep the Ponzi alive. You can only kick the can further down the road for so long. The worlds financial day of reckoning has arrived. Some of us having been expecting and waiting for this to happen for some time. Not wanting this to happen, but knew it was coming. If ever there was a time to ‘end the Fed’ it is now. Quantitative easing, negative interest rates, seriously, what’s next????

[Islandlad]

Sure did kingRB. They are making things up as they are going along. They are desperate. The house of cards is collapsing and they know it. They will stop at nothing to keep the Ponzi alive. You can only kick the can further down the road for so long. The worlds financial day of reckoning has arrived. Some of us having been expecting and waiting for this to happen for some time. Not wanting this to happen, but knew it was coming. If ever there was a time to ‘end the Fed’ it is now. Quantitative easing, negative interest rates, seriously, what’s next????
If that is step 1 what next. Based on what you have said above you have a fully developed recovery plan?

[Paragraph377]

If that is step 1 what next. Based on what you have said above you have a fully developed recovery plan?
Recovery plan? You mean contingency and preparation plan. Debt free and invested in hard metals and stones for the best part of 20 years.

[kingRB]

If that is step 1 what next. Based on what you have said above you have a fully developed recovery plan?

There is no recovery plan in the US or the rest of the Western Governments, because virtually everyone is oblivious to how debt based currency really works. Those that do understand are going to do everything they have left in their power to retain control of that system until it collapses.

One thing is certain - the USD as a reserve currency is in its final death throes. What happens after that - and what replaces it is going to be historic. Like P337 says - there will not be any immediate or smooth transition, and we are likely in for some very dark times economically and socially.

[Islandlad]

Recovery plan? You mean contingency and preparation plan. Debt free and invested in hard metals and stones for the best part of 20 years.
That's a little on the micro scale for the country.

Good luck with it. Watch out for the guy with a bigger gun than you.

[Islandlad]

There is no recovery plan in the US or the rest of the Western Governments, because virtually everyone is oblivious to how debt based currency really works. Those that do understand are going to do everything they have left in their power to retain control of that system until it collapses.

One thing is certain - the USD as a reserve currency is in its final death throes. What happens after that - and what replaces it is going to be historic. Like P337 says - there will not be any immediate or smooth transition, and we are likely in for some very dark times economically and socially.
Over time this will be a bump in the road. Resources rich countries like the US always spring back.

[TACQANAVIAVEC]

Over time this will be a bump in the road. Resources rich countries like the US always spring back.

Argentina is amongst the most resource rich nations in the world and was once amongst the richest ones as well yet it has been broke for close to 60 years.

History time and time again has shown that a nation or empire that repeatedly debases its currency eventually looses its power. The US has virtually been able to print
money at will only because the USD is the world reserve currency, once this isn't true then like the ROME, the Dutch, the Spanish, The Uk there will a power shift away from the US.

[Islandlad]

Argentina is amongst the most resource rich nations in the world and was once amongst the richest ones as well yet it has been broke for close to 60 years.
Political instability and a run on the currency was the cause. Comparisons with the USA are not accurate.

[directimped]

There is no recovery plan in the US or the rest of the Western Governments, because virtually everyone is oblivious to how debt based currency really works. Those that do understand are going to do everything they have left in their power to retain control of that system until it collapses.


Something interesting I came across recently during a bit of light reading on history and economics; "our current period of economic growth (200 years) represents only 0.01% of human presence on this planet". Obviously it went into a lot more detail than that, however it makes a valid point. Our current lifestyle that we enjoy is merely a blip on the scale of human history. People feel safe and assume that nothing can or will ever change. I don't know what the reason for this belief is, but it is a false sense of security. None of us are prepared for anything abnormal that could occur. We can't assume that our current economic system will never collapse or suffer a severe shock. It has happened countless times before and it can easily happen again. In fact, one could argue it will definitely happen eventually, as it is more horrendously unstable than it has ever been before.

[Paragraph377]

That's a little on the micro scale for the country.

Good luck with it. Watch out for the guy with a bigger gun than you.
Seriously, that’s all you can come back with? Most who have invested in precious metals etc don’t have them a) Locked in a bank vault where the bank can lock you out and keep your investment for themselves, and b) if they’ve been smart enough to buy the hard asset they don’t have it sitting in their house for some muppet to come in and steal. That said, ‘gold, guns and getaway plan’ are worthy of considering. Well, probably too late now, but worth considering. Anyway, each to their own. If you studied up on ‘great depressions’ you will see that it’s not about survival of the country or the masses, it IS about micro scale - saving your family and yourself. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

[Vindiesel]

Borders to stay closed, travellers urged to 'see Australia first' once curbs ease

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/borders-to-stay-closed-travellers-urged-to-see-australia-first-once-curbs-ease-20200410-p54iw4.html

Seems a best case outcome here for the end of 2020 is generally unrestricted travel domestically and between AUS and NZ.

[LeftBehind]

I doubt anyone knows (even the academics who specialise in public health) know how COVID-19 is going to play out. It sure makes it interesting betting the sheep station at the big table. Consider the following possibilities:

Until a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available (if it ever does) or herd immunity is reached, any international travel into AU will require a quarantine period (of some description) at journey’s end. Unless there is a pressing reason (business or personal), this will make international travel unattractive for most.
It is possible that the current AU public health directions will result in the COVID-19 being contained and supressed, without the development of any AU herd immunity. If one listens to the entire briefings of various Federal and State representatives, the words “six months” keeps being repeated. This indicates September 2020 at the earliest. It is possible that Governments will slowly remove domestic travel restrictions. Key word is “slowly”. Expect incremental step, watch what happens, then another incremental step. However, any flare up will trigger a new lock down.
Non-business travellers (including the bogans) will have taken a big hit to their free cash. Until the economy recovers, suppressed demand. Factor in higher tax take (which will dry up household free cash) for the next decade to pay off the COVID-19 government debt.
Business travel will be watched closely. Not for costs, but for possible cross contamination of the office. Expect travel approver to ask, “do you really need to travel to location X”. Sales droids, show ponies, and those who seek self-esteem by obtaining frequent flyer miles will always find a good excuse. All others will defer if possible. Until vaccine is available, expect suppressed business travel, even inside AU.
Keep in mind that containment and suppression strategies are applying selection pressure on COVID-19. Only the strong survive, and this seems to be applying to COVID-19 S type.
The current AU government is unpredictable and not running to type (mainly in a good way).

[layman]

LeftBehind

Good summary.

Another possibility is if there is success in the search for a full, or even partial, ‘treatment’. A long bow but may be a useful adjunct to a vaccine.

Your (6), I’d make one change - governments (plural). Ideology largely seems to be lockdown too.

I thought this was a good article on progress toward a COVID-19 vaccine:
https://theconversation.com/where-are-we-at-with-developing-a-vaccine-for-coronavirus-134784

[kiwi grey]

For those running a "everything will be back to normal in a few months" line, maybe read: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-12/wa-records-three-new-coronavirus-cases-taking-total-to-517/12143322, headlined "WA ... COVID-19 restrictions to last at least six months"

That's internal 'border' checks until at least October, I can't see external borders in Australia or NZ being opened until there's a vaccine, or all passengers go into quarantine on arrival. That's international tourism and short-term business travel stone dead in this part of the world until (I guess) March or April 2021.

[f1yhigh]

What the post-Covid aviation world looks like will depend heavily on how this crisis plays out over the next 6-18 months, or thereabouts. For example:

is the outbreak largely controlled within 6 months, or does it linger
is the death rate kept (relatively) low, which might limit the long-term impact on the public psyche - or is there a deep social change in mindsets about (among other things) being in close quarters on airplanes
how deep is the economic harm, and how quick is the economic recovery - which will affect how quickly demand for travel picks back up, especially in premium classes, corporate travel and leisure travel (so most travel)
how do the airlines fair, themselves - do they reduce fleet sizes during the shutdown, are they in a financially weak position coming out of it, how do key competitors come out of it etc.

But, I think there are a few things I'd be willing to bet on:

demand between Australia and Asia (possibly excepting Japan) will be lower, for longer, due to perception that travel there is higher risk - that may be a problem for Qantas, which has been wanting to redeploy the A380s onto Asian routes for a while
Qantas is going into this in a far stronger position than Virgin, and so will come out of it in a far stronger position - I'd expect Virgin to downsize aggressively (TT fleet, A330s etc) and to have limited capital to invest in 2021-23, which may allow Qantas to pick up market share and profits (Government assistance may affect this equation - it's becoming pretty clear that the Government wants to retain Virgin as a strong competitor)
if there is a bias towards Australians travelling to Western countries (Europe, US) or Latin America/South Africa - that might boost Qantas' PS plans (provided that premium travel recovers enough to fill the large premium class sections)
Qantas will hold onto the 747s until it can work out whether demand will pick up enough to fill the A380s.



The plot thickens. Farewell queen :(