Australia Border enforced isolation 12am Monday

[wheels_down]

Effective 12am this evening. This will be law also.

Self isolation compulsory for all international arrivals for 14 days from midnight. To be reviewed weekly. Analysts expect minimum 30 days. Realistic expectation is 60-90 days.

Will effectively shut down Trans Tasman flights. As seen with EU/US, there will be a large influx of people wanting to get home.

Still not much info if this is relative to Air Crew.

The states will be responsible for those laws surrounding those who wish to break 14 day quarantine. However, I am sure A Current Affair and Social Media will have a field day with exposing those who even try.

Whilst inbound International Tourism is now obviously dead, it will be interesting to see the impact on Domestic Tourism. VA and QF can wear the higher margin Corporate traffic. JQ is obviously largely at risk here. Markets like Cairns/Gold Coast will be of interest. Tiger is obviously either going to be closed or temporary grounded.

[slats11]

Well that stops tourism.
No point coming if you have to isolate.
Guess immigration will ask tourists their isolation plans and if not satisfied back you go.

Returning residents won’t reliably quarantine themselves. But they won’t be travelling themselves

[Ragnor]

Well that stops tourism.
No point coming if you have to isolate.
Guess immigration will ask tourists their isolation plans and if not satisfied back you go.

Returning residents won’t reliably quarantine themselves. But they won’t be travelling themselves

Well if they don’t, they will be charged, considering the hype surrounding this virus I'm sure there wouldn’t be a shortage of citizens keeping others honest. Government fast tracking a law tonight maximum penalty could be imprisonment.

[slats11]

It ain’t hype. Trust me.

comments that this was an overreaction will not age well.

[Berealgetreal]

About 6-8 weeks too late. Better than nothing I suppose however already a large number of cases in Australia.

[Captain Bundy]

Will there be an exception for air crew?

[Tommy Bahama]

Will there be an exception for air crew?

It won't matter the airlines won't be flying empty aircraft for very long....standby for "stand down" clauses to be implemented.

[SilverSleuth]

Others counties will quickly follow this.
add to this US travel is going to banned any day now. effectively suspending all international flying.
how many pilots does Qantas have on international.? could be a long time not flying.

[clark y]

So does this mean all the international students hanging out in various parts of the world “self isolating” will have to self isolate upon arrival?

As for Australian domestic tourism, might be time to have some staycations and see what Australia has to offer.

[Berealgetreal]

Might as well close the borders all together. As if people are going to self isolate. Impossible to police.

[slats11]

Read this if you think this initiative is over the top.

do you think Italy wishes it could replay the last 2 weeks?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

[crosscutter]

Domestic tourism...tick. But don’t rule out entire city isolation requirements from domestic arrivals.

[TBM-Legend]

It's amazing that this bogan country wants to whinge and whine and push-back on measures that will attempt to stop us becoming another Italy or Spain and shortly France.

Let's not be selfish and take this seriously and not fool ourselves. It reminds me of those who disobeyed the mandatory evacuations in the recent fires and then expected to be "rescued" by others..

[Ragnor]

Let’s just hope ppl listen, self isolate. Those who were going to travel over seas I hope they decide to fly within Australia. All our Jobs depend on that our pockets are only so deep before jobs start being affected.

[B772]

Seeing that we have been advised to have 2 weeks of supplies on hand at any one time until further notice I was astounded to see how little stock my local Woolworths in Melbourne has. The frozen food section has been decimated. I can understand the dry goods area taking a hiding.

[SilverSleuth]

If it keeps going expected domestic aviation to be restricted next.

[Foxxster]

Read this if you think this initiative is over the top.

do you think Italy wishes it could replay the last 2 weeks?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true


well we are only a few weeks behind Italy. We went from 200 to 250 cases overnight. Or 25% increase. We have been tracking other countries growth of around 20% a day. Now we have reached a reasonably large number, the increase will be noticeable. After all 20% of 10 is only 2. Nobody notices. But now... numbers will double every 5 days or so. 5 days, 500, 10 days , 1,000. 40 days, 64,000.

now you know why these actions are being taken.

things are going to get very ugly very quickly. For airlines, hotels, restaurants, and when like Italy and France they close all shops...

[Transition Layer]

Seeing that we have been advised to have 2 weeks of supplies on hand at any one time until further notice I was astounded to see how little stock my local Woolworths in Melbourne has. The frozen food section has been decimated. I can understand the dry goods area taking a hiding.

Where is your advice from...some one on Facebook? Here is the real advice from the authorities...
The advice from Australia's health authorities to shoppers spooked by endless empty supermarket shelves and images of overflowing trolleys is to have a few days worth of food - but no more.

Australia's chief medical officer Brendan Murphy on Sunday called for 'sensible' purchasing of necessities in the wake of self-isolation fears, as supermarkets across the country struggle to restock.

"For most people we don't want to encourage major panic buying at the moment," he told ABC's Insiders program on Sunday morning.

"We've seen that with the supermarket chains. But I think it is probably sensible to have a few days of supply."

[J.O.]

Preventing community spread is a far more effective measure than closing borders. That is what China focussed on in the Wuhan area and the results have been excellent.

[ericsson16]

This whole travel ban is insane. How can you stop giving the virus to someone if they already have it.In a couple of weeks thousands and millions will have this virus worldwide. Sorry you can't come into my country because you may have the virus. Totally insane.

[wheels_down]

Where is your advice from...some one on Facebook? Here is the real advice from the authorities...
The advice from Australia's health authorities to shoppers spooked by endless empty supermarket shelves and images of overflowing trolleys is to have a few days worth of food - but no more.

Australia's chief medical officer Brendan Murphy on Sunday called for 'sensible' purchasing of necessities in the wake of self-isolation fears, as supermarkets across the country struggle to restock.

"For most people we don't want to encourage major panic buying at the moment," he told ABC's Insiders program on Sunday morning.

"We've seen that with the supermarket chains. But I think it is probably sensible to have a few days of supply."
The Victorian Chief Medical officer was out telling everyone to have two weeks supply. He is now retracting that statement to a few days of supply now.

You tell people two weeks supply they will go for two months. Tell them a few days then they will stockpile for two weeks. I don’t know how the Australian Brain works.

[slats11]

Preventing community spread is a far more effective measure than closing borders. That is what China focussed on in the Wuhan area and the results have been excellent

You need both measures.

But closing schools, mass transit, factories affect far more people than closing the airline industry. It will need to get a lot worse before that is politically acceptable.
However we will almost certainly get there and I expect very long Easter school holidays.

this is surprising politicians also. On Thursday that Vic Premier still thought he had a car race.

[Transition Layer]

Can anyone confirm if the travel restrictions apply to crew? The NZ restrictions specifically exempt aircrew.

[B772]

Transition Layer: Dr Brett Sutton Victoria's Chief Health Minister today (15 March) recommended a 2 week supply of food and a 2 month supply of prescription medication. Harvey Norman and the Good Guys have sold out of freezers hence the run on frozen food.

[wheels_down]

QF and JQ now letting all customers cancel all domestic and international flights for flight vouchers for travel until end of May. I imagine this will give them a good idea of the right network size for the next few months.

[virgindriver]

So can aircrew disregard the self isolate laws?

Big fine but it’s ok if you are aircrew and are immune to Corona Virus...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-15/coronavirus-queensland-schools-not-cancelled/12054306

[Angle of Attack]

Aircrew will not have the self isolation rules apply, but it’s sort of a moot point because I don’t think there will be many planes at all flying in and out over the next 2 months..

[SOPS]

Angle of Attack beat me to it. We are entering a strange new world. You won’t have to worry about if air crew need to isolate, you won’t be flying anywhere.

[73qanda]

So can aircrew disregard the self isolate laws?
Disregard might be slightly strong but essentially....yes.
This isn’t about preventing the virus from coming to Australia.
This is about controlling the rate at which case numbers increase. By lowering the rate there is greater prospect of the health system being able to provide top notch care for each serious case as they come in. If we can do that, less people will die.

[SevenTwentySeven]

Preventing community spread is a far more effective measure than closing borders. That is what China focussed on in the Wuhan area and the results have been excellent.

It astounds me that anybody believes the propaganda coming out of China at the moment.

​"Wuhan city, ground zero of the new coronavirus outbreak, reported five new cases on Friday, the second day in a row the tally has been less than 10, while no locally transmitted infections were reported in the rest of the country."

All back to normal. Nothing to see here!

Do you really believe that??

[dr dre]

It astounds me that anybody believes the propaganda coming out of China at the moment.

Do you really believe that??

Well do you believe the South Koreans?:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

The Singaporeans?:

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/coronavirus-affected-countries-singapore-covid-19-2019-ncov-impact-tourism-economy-travel/

Evidence that strict control measures reduce the spread of the virus.

You're right in saying you can't trust the numbers coming out of China, but there's tangible evidence on the ground that the virus transmission numbers are on the decline. The temporary hospitals in Wuhan have all closed (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan-medical-workers-remove-masks-after-last-temporary-hospital-closes-2020-3?r=US&IR=T), the country is sending excess medical staff to Italy (https://simpleflying.com/china-italy-medical-supplies/), factories and other businesses are re-starting production (https://www.gulf-times.com/story/658306/Foxconn-restarts-production-at-factories-in-China-). Of course it only happened after 7 weeks of lock down in Hubei province. But that brutal measure seems to have worked

[Bend alot]

Let’s just hope ppl listen, self isolate. Those who were going to travel over seas I hope they decide to fly within Australia. All our Jobs depend on that our pockets are only so deep before jobs start being affected.
I will as long as the greedy airlines give me a credit on my domestic travel for my O/S vacation - I do not want a refund just a credit to use for my family and not to go to Sydney as my current flights are.

[Berealgetreal]

China is just at a point where they can’t keep factories closed anymore. Time to roll he dice.

Only countries that have it under controls are Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. I believe South Korea are all over the testing.

Another issue we have is winter is on its way and the virus likes the cold. It will go rampant in Melbourne, then onto Syd. I can see domestic flights being grounded as well.

Pretty scary.

[Caroline Lane]

I will as long as the greedy airlines give me a credit on my domestic travel for my O/S vacation - I do not want a refund just a credit to use for my family and not to go to Sydney as my current flights are.

Good luck. Qantas left us stranded in Japan. Flights cancelled. We tried to get on another flight. As we flew on FF points and didn't have enough points to change to a different carrier sorry no flights for you. Plus we loose our points as we had started our trip.

Tried to get through again later after buying points but after a day nothing from Qantas so had to buy flights.

Like I said good luck.

[LapSap]

I’m surprised so many on here seem so surprised. Did you not see the pictures of 300+ aircraft parked on aprons and taxiways at HKIA 3-4 weeks ago?? More since then...
Traffic numbers have gone from almost 1250 per day to less than 400. Almost exclusively cargo/Bizjet.
You didn’t think it would end up happening downunder as well?
Aussies and Kiwis are becoming more insular than the Yanks if that’s the case.

[Angle of Attack]

I’ve also been surprised at all the aloof offhand comments regarding it’s no worse than a cold etc etc, It was obvious when China took those extreme precautions that this will turn into a bloodbath economically. I think it’s human nature, unless it’s affecting right in your face at the current time we tend to overlook or downplay it. I think you will find there will be pretty much no international flights except for a feeder trickle over the next 90 days at least, and domestic will probably crash by 80-90 % once the full lockdown comes into place. The timing is pretty horrendous though with Winter coming so 5-6 months of a shutdown is not impossible. There is going to be massive global shifts and consolidation in the Airline Industry too.

[slats11]

Be very interesting to see what happens in China as they reopen.

epidemiologists have stated the epidemic will burn itself out once ~ 50% of us have been infected and are immune. This is heard immunity.

China has 80,000 cases of 1.47 billion people
= 0.006% of population. So zero heard immunity.

OK, so allow that they only diagnosed 8% of cases and there were many asymptomatic people never tested and never diagnosed
= 1,000,000 actual cases
= 0.07% of population

Based on these figures, it should run rampant as China reopens. Yet (so far) that is not happening according to business associates in Beijing and Shanghai.

it is all very odd.

if it doesn’t take off, then maybe most of the population were infected without getting sick.

We will need blood tests on large sections of the population to answer that. But maybe the true incidence is much much higher, and the % of serious cases & deaths is much much lower.

[topend3]

100 odd new cases in the last few days indicates the horse is halfway out the gate and down the driveway.

[slats11]

https://www.covid19data.com.au/

Good site for Australia

It took many weeks to get first 100 cases. That was 4 days ago.
it then took 3 days to get next 100
Then just one day for next 50

[Foxxster]

https://www.covid19data.com.au/

Good site for Australia

It took many weeks to get first 100 cases. That was 4 days ago.
it then took 3 days to get next 100
Then just one day for next 50


good world site, not sure if already posted. Watch out for the exponential growth.. the next week will be telling.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[F.Nose]

100 odd new cases in the last few days indicates the horse is halfway out the gate and down the driveway.

We will all eventually get COVID-19, its not about trying to stop it. The important thing is to try and prevent to many people becoming infected at the same time... flatten the bell curve if you like.

The following written by Dr Adam Visser explains.

"I’m an intensive care specialist in a small city.

Coronavirus isn’t just like the flu, but it’s only really very dangerous to the elderly or the already unwell. Quite a lot of people in their 80s will die, but most of the rest of us will probably be okay.

If you’re in your 70s and you get Coronavirus, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 60s and you have a heart attack, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 50s and need bowel cancer surgery, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 40s and have a bad car accident, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 30s and have terrible pre-eclampsia as a complication of pregnancy, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 20s and have a bad reaction to a party drug, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

I have 7 beds equipped with life support machines. We have a plan to increase to about 25. Getting more isn’t a matter or more equipment or more money, that bit is easy. There are not enough skilled staff, even if we all work double shifts every day for six months (and we probably will).

If 50% of my city gets infected, that’s 75,000 people. If 5% of them need life support (which is the estimate), that’s 3750 people. For 25 beds.

And then I might not have a bed for you.

So it’s up to you to flatten the curve. Wash your hands. Stay home."

[Transition Layer]

Transition Layer: Dr Brett Sutton Victoria's Chief Health Minister today (15 March) recommended a 2 week supply of food and a 2 month supply of prescription medication. Harvey Norman and the Good Guys have sold out of freezers hence the run on frozen food.

What a muppet. Pretty irresponsible for him to come out and say that when it’s at odds with what the National authority is saying.

[Sunfish]

Supermarkets generally hold about 2 days worth of food. They are replenished via “just in time “ logistics systems (kanban). So it takes about 6-7 days of panic buying for customers to get that buffer.

New York has only 8 hours worth of food in its stores....

[Occy]

Pilots are experts and just super knowledgeable about everything.

How to run an airline better than everyone else, kinda goes without saying I suppose.
Economics.
Government.
Epidemiology.
And now, supermarket supply chain management.

[neville_nobody]

Pilots are experts and just super knowledgeable about everything.

How to run an airline better than everyone else, kinda goes without saying I suppose.
Economics.
Government.
Epidemiology.
And now, supermarket supply chain management.

Pilots come from all sort backgrounds, I have worked with pilots who have who have experience in all those fields except for Epidemiology. ( but I have meet 2 pilots who have become Drs.) I even have experience in one of those fields. Unlike a lot of other industries where people tend to go to Uni then work in their given field their whole career Pilots tend to come from a broad background of experience. There are also professionals in other fields who have an interest in aviation and post here.

[noclue]

Pilots are experts and just super knowledgeable about everything.

How to run an airline better than everyone else, kinda goes without saying I suppose.
Economics.
Government.
Epidemiology.
And now, supermarket supply chain management.

🤣🤣 filler words

[Mascot PPL]

A data science prof at UCL in london has been publishing some good data on progression rates in various countries to show what could be coming in the near future for those just starting to see in country transmissions e.g. UK is about 14 days behind Italy. He's not a epidemic expert but the data appears robust and the analysis seems logical to me.

Worth checking it out - COVID 19 Growth Rate (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/)

Good news for OZ is that hotter climates seem to have a less aggressive growth line than colder climates (see graph about 2/3rds of the way down the page).
NB for any folks not used to log graphs (hopefully not too many) a straight line graph is NOT a good thing - shallower slope is better (i.e. less bad) but still not good....

As someone who has just returned to the UK after 4 weeks in WA in 30+ degrees not so reassuring :-)

Stay safe.

This too shall pass....

[SevenTwentySeven]

Be very interesting to see what happens in China as they reopen.

epidemiologists have stated the epidemic will burn itself out once ~ 50% of us have been infected and are immune. This is heard immunity.

China has 80,000 cases of 1.47 billion people
= 0.006% of population. So zero heard immunity.

OK, so allow that they only diagnosed 8% of cases and there were many asymptomatic people never tested and never diagnosed
= 1,000,000 actual cases
= 0.07% of population

Based on these figures, it should run rampant as China reopens. Yet (so far) that is not happening according to business associates in Beijing and Shanghai.

it is all very odd.

if it doesn’t take off, then maybe most of the population were infected without getting sick.

We will need blood tests on large sections of the population to answer that. But maybe the true incidence is much much higher, and the % of serious cases & deaths is much much lower.

That's why I've been saying the China figures are bogus. All of a sudden they are back to normal and no one else in the country is getting infected?

China is desperate to show they have beaten this.

Hmmmm. I don't think so.

[slats11]

Very odd
NSW told to prepare for 8,000 deaths
USA modelling 1.5 million deaths

and China just 3,000.

Sure I get that unprecedented isolation measures put the virus back in its box.

But relax the measures and it has to break out. If it doesn’t (and it isn’t so far), then very odd indeed.

[mickjoebill]

Might as well close the borders all together. As if people are going to self isolate. Impossible to police.

UK are set to close pubs and restaurants, if Australia follows, it will be time to dust off the camping gear and head for the bush.

mjb

[Av8rMarc]

Very odd
NSW told to prepare for 8,000 deaths
USA modelling 1.5 million deaths

and China just 3,000.

Sure I get that unprecedented isolation measures put the virus back in its box.

But relax the measures and it has to break out. If it doesn’t (and it isn’t so far), then very odd indeed.

I agree. The other thing that hasn't been considered is the few reinfection cases of people who previously had it. Maybe they were misdiagnosed initially, but that is a scary prospect if there isn't inherent immunity in those who have already theoretically kicked it. China is about to find out, it seems.

[601]

"For most people we don't want to encourage major panic buying at the moment,"
I wonder if all those people who panic bought TP, have checked the expiry date on each roll?

[slats11]

These NAAT tests have a few issues. The one you are alluding to here is that they are probably only 70-80% sensitive (that is, they will be negative 20-30% of the time when they should be positive). This has more to do with the adequacy of sampling than it does with the the test per se. So it is quite possible to have a false negative test followed by a true positive test a week later. You have been positive throughout, but a test came back false negative as it missed the virus.

This isn't reinfection. This is a function of the performance of the tests when applied to real world collection and processing of samples. With 100's of thousands of people who have been tested, there are going to be countless examples of this pattern.

At the end of the day, this is just a resp virus. A bit more lethal than others, and we don't have any heard immunity to it. So the virus needs to be taken seriously. But it doesn't have magical properties.

It is likely you can only get it once, although it is possible you could get a 2nd (likely milder) case some years later.

And the virus could be unstable (like influenza) that changes each year. But it will be less deadly in future as we will likely retain a degree of heard immunity.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

"For most people we don't want to encourage major panic buying at the moment,"
So there are some people who we do want to encourage??

[Sunfish]

Still think the Pandemic thread belongs in jet blast?

[Chris2303]

So zero heard immunity.

Try "herd" as in herd of cattle

[kkbuk]

These NAAT tests have a few issues. The one you are alluding to here is that they are probably only 70-80% sensitive (that is, they will be negative 20-30% of the time when they should be positive). This has more to do with the adequacy of sampling than it does with the the test per se. So it is quite possible to have a false negative test followed by a true positive test a week later. You have been positive throughout, but a test came back false negative as it missed the virus.

This isn't reinfection. This is a function of the performance of the tests when applied to real world collection and processing of samples. With 100's of thousands of people who have been tested, there are going to be countless examples of this pattern.

At the end of the day, this is just a resp virus. A bit more lethal than others, and we don't have any heard immunity to it. So the virus needs to be taken seriously. But it doesn't have magical properties.

It is likely you can only get it once, although it is possible you could get a 2nd (likely milder) case some years later.

And the virus could be unstable (like influenza) that changes each year. But it will be less deadly in future as we will likely retain a degree of heard immunity.
It is herd immunity, as in a herd of cows etcetera, not, as you so quaintly put it, 'heard'. Sorry to be such a pedant. Apologies to Chris, I have just noticed his post

[J.O.]

It astounds me that anybody believes the propaganda coming out of China at the moment.

​"Wuhan city, ground zero of the new coronavirus outbreak, reported five new cases on Friday, the second day in a row the tally has been less than 10, while no locally transmitted infections were reported in the rest of the country."

All back to normal. Nothing to see here!

Do you really believe that??

I believe the virology expert from the USA who recently returned from the front lines in Wuhan and stated categorically that China has been nothing but transparent throughout this outbreak. Shocked the heck out of me but he’s been on the front lines of epidemics since the days of SARS and has no motivation to lie about it.

[SevenTwentySeven]

I believe the virology expert from the USA who recently returned from the front lines in Wuhan and stated categorically that China has been nothing but transparent throughout this outbreak. Shocked the heck out of me but he’s been on the front lines of epidemics since the days of SARS and has no motivation to lie about it.

So when an atomic inspector gives Iran the all-clear you believe that too?

[Australopithecus]

I tend to believe the Chinese numbers right now...the same way SARS was stopped has put the brakes on the rate of infection. To follow the bushfire analogy however, there are still hidden embers that may flare up again once containment measures are relaxed.
I think this is still early in the first innings.

[Berealgetreal]

Herd of sheep. More appropriate.

[Old Dogs]

So when an atomic inspector gives Iran the all-clear you believe that too?

Yes, actually.

The International Atomic Energy Agency gave Iran the "all clear" in 2003 and nothing has changed since then.

[machtuk]

Hysteria and panic is far more destructive than some URTI virus!

[dc9-32]

Assuming QF don't cancel the flight, is there any restriction in place currently to prevent Brits returning PER-LHR direct ?

QF appear to not be sending out any updates to passengers already booked in the coming weeks.

[Lantern10]

The UK is letting it run according to this article.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/herd-immunity-why-britain-is-actually-letting-the-coronavirus-spread-20200315-p54a5h.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584299823

[dr dre]

Hysteria and panic is far more destructive than some URTI virus!

Some “URTI virus” generally doesn’t get to the point where hospitals in modern nations are so choked they are refusing to admit patients over 65 years old to preserve resources for others.

It’s also not an URTI, it’s affecting the lower respiratory tract, not the upper.

[Berealgetreal]

The UK is letting it run according to this article.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/herd-immunity-why-britain-is-actually-letting-the-coronavirus-spread-20200315-p54a5h.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584299823

Trump might want to close that one as well!

[bekolblockage]

Frequent SLF between HK and Oz here due to my work.
One of the problems with the Gov announcing this sort of thing on a Sunday afternoon is that none of the info on the various Department websites aligns and is quite brief and therefore not giving the complete picture right now.
Has anybody seen any official notification regarding temporary visitors (Australian citizen but non-resident) who are staying in the country less than 14 days??
The simple publication on the Dept of Home Affairs website says everybody has to self-isolate for 14 days. What if you are only planning to stay 3 days? Provided you self-isolated at home for those 3 days,can they stop you hopping back on an aircraft and leaving the country again?
For info, QANTAS is telling pax that is permitted. Grateful if anybody has an official link confirming that.

[topend3]

probably irrelevant as the majority of short stay trips are going to cancel before they get here.

[givemewings]

IMHO the panic buying was started by the media taking a comment by one of the medical officials completely out of context. He advised to have about '2 weeks' of provisions for anyone requiring to SELF QUARANTINE, but of course the dumbo division just heard 'two weeks' and presto, there we have WWE for bog roll in the aisles of Woolies.

I'm glad they're finally waking up and cancelling large gatherings, but the flipside to that is our events/entertainment industry will take a massive hit as well. Where do those people generally work in the off season? Hospitality and tourism, another taking a big hit.

Glad I'm not flying any more. Currently at the start of 3 days off as my employer has wisely decided to spilt the work group into two, with neither group working at all with the other and deep cleaning/sanitising happening during the workday and after hours

[Ozdork]

So is Norfolk Island considered “overseas” (for the purpose of this directive)?

[mothy1583]

Technically, you would have to break quarantine to get yourself to the airpor. Catch 22

[Foxxster]

Very odd
NSW told to prepare for 8,000 deaths
USA modelling 1.5 million deaths

and China just 3,000.

Sure I get that unprecedented isolation measures put the virus back in its box.

But relax the measures and it has to break out. If it doesn’t (and it isn’t so far), then very odd indeed.


I can assure you that 8,000 for NSW is nowhere near what is being planned by at least one major hospital where I have a close relative working in ICU. They had a meeting about a week ago and were told the modelling is saying to prepare for at least 135,000 Australia wide. That would equate to about 40,000 for NSW.

[slats11]

I can assure you that 8,000 for NSW is nowhere near what is being planned by at least one major hospital where I have a close relative working in ICU. They had a meeting about a week ago and were told the modelling is saying to prepare for at least 135,000 Australia wide. That would equate to about 40,000 for NSW.

Working in ICU, I completely agree.

But 8,000 is the figure the government ran in the SMH, so I used that.

If you assume 8 million in NSW
x 50% infected
x 1-2% fatality rate
That = 40,000 to 80,000 deaths The vast majority over 60, and the majority over 70, and very few under 30.

Which makes 3,000 in all of China even harder to explain.

It is a very strange world.

[givemewings]

If you think a temporary shutdown won't help, take a look at this:

Comparison of cities in the US 1918-19 influenza epidemic. Comparing those who took delayed measures, early but singular measures, and early, combined measures:

Non-Medical Interventions During Epidemics (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354)

[pilotguy1222]

HKG got their **** together a few weeks ago. Cathay slashed the March schedule, but because of the fight to stop the spread, HKG is now one of the better (safer?) places and Cathay is now scrambling to ramp up the flight schedule.
A relatively short timeframe of discipline and effort for the good end result.

[Sue Ridgepipe]

HKG got their **** together a few weeks ago. Cathay slashed the March schedule, but because of the fight to stop the spread, HKG is now one of the better (safer?) places and Cathay is now scrambling to ramp up the flight schedule.
A relatively short timeframe of discipline and effort for the good end result.
I'm not sure how that's going to work out for them (if it is in fact happening) as more and countries introduce bans or quarantines, they may not have many passengers.

[Xeptu]

The fatality rate is 1 death per 23 infections globally, the greater majority are over 60 yrs of age. I think that because Australians are not as disciplined as the Chinese, we can expect the toll to be in line with Europe and the US. Going into our flu season "June to Sept" I would be surprised if its less than the spanish flu. 15,000 from a population of 5 million. These are going to be big numbers and I fear I'm likely to be one of them.

[Berealgetreal]

The fatality rate is 1 death per 23 infections globally, the greater majority are over 60 yrs of age. I think that because Australians are not as disciplined as the Chinese, we can expect the toll to be in line with Europe and the US. Going into our flu season "June to Sept" I would be surprised if its less than the spanish flu. 15,000 from a population of 5 million. These are going to be big numbers and I fear I'm likely to be one of them.

Information is coming out that in Europe there are a great deal of young people getting it as well. It’s in its infancy and the word is it’s 10-20 times worse than the flu. As I said in another thread it’s going to make the GFC look like a fun day out.

The exponential nature of it is about to shock the world. Borders closed quarantine and masks everywhere is what is/was needed. Strict conditions. Been following it closely from day dot.

[Xeptu]

Yes, it doesn't discriminate, everyone who is exposed gets it, it's a case of young people appear to not be showing any symptoms that they have it, barely a runny nose, We over 60's is a different matter all together. That makes it even more risky, young people will think "so what" and happily go about infecting people, without really knowing for sure if they have it.

[slats11]

The fatality rate is 1 death per 23 infections globally, the greater majority are over 60 yrs of age.

Not to discount the seriousness of this, but the odds are significantly better than than that. Let me try to explain.

The global case fatality rate is about 3.4%. That is, 3.4% of diagnosed cases have died.

But for every diagnosed case, there are many undiagnosed milder cases who don't die - maybe by a factor of 2-3 times. We don't know the size of this group - we can't measure what we can't see. Its like the bit of an iceberg that is under water.

We expect that about 50% of the global population will be infected by this virus. But many (probably most) will never know they had it. The CFR only relates to the minority who are sick enough to get diagnosed - not to the broader pool of people who get infected.

The italian CFR (5.8%) is higher than this 3.4%. However
i) Italy has a very old population - oldest in Europe
ii) Italy is not testing nearly as many people as China did. China was very active with testing (people were trying to avoid being tested to avoid going to a grim quarantine facility, and so testers were going round to peoples houses and checking temperatures and testing if febrile). Hence China found more of the milder (and lower risk) cases who were not seeking medial attention and who were hiding out at home. Korea was also very active at testing and finding mild cases and so also has a low CFR.

Trying to compare CFR between countries is like comparing apples and oranges. Because we are not calculating how many infected people die. We are calculating how many diagnosed cases died, and different countries are diagnosing in different ways.

Best guess is that the number of infected patients who die is perhaps 1 - 2%, although it could be even lower. We won't know that figure for a while. But it will be significantly less than the CFR.

So if 50% of population get infected (whether diagnosed or not) and if 1% of these die, then we are talking 0.5% of population - mostly elderly. Thats still bad and still a lot of people, but way better than 1:23. The total number of deaths look confronting because we have a global population > 7 billion.

Look at the Italian graphic below. Overall CFR 5.8%. But it is overwhelmingly the elderly. Even through your 60's, your risk of dying is significantly less than the 5.8% overall CFR. Even in the 70's (where the CFR does go up to 9.6%), late 70's will be significantly worse than early 70's.

Comorbidities are an issue. But they have plenty of comorbidities in Italy. Of 14,000 diagnosed cases, only 2 deaths < 50 years old, only 16 deaths < 60 yrs, and only 81 deaths < 70.

It is confusing, so I hope that makes sense.

The Italian data is probably the most useful right now:
Large enough number of cases for statistics to be meaningful
High degree of transparency and honest reporting
Similar demographics and health system to Australia.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1546x928/screen_shot_2020_03_16_at_23_55_40_a37da0e238d3b9b569c70fcf9 23805378b0b56eb.png

[Mascot PPL]

slats11 - great post.

I think the South Korea data is probably the best for looking at CFR (circa 1%) - they have done the greatest level of testing as far as I can see and also have one of the lowest CFRs. So either a) they have a best treatment/health service response, or b) they have weaker "strain" of Covid (2 have been identified but no one seems to think one is more or less virulent than the other) or c) they have a much better (and higher) count of overall cases as they have been testing the most people?

This sort of assumption also works for the current UK CFR numbers that to me look high as a proportion of overall cases but we've only been testing folks who have presented at hospitals with significant symptoms.

There's no way to prove any of this is true/false at the moment as we don't have apples or oranges to compare. That being said your analysis looks sensible to me.

[slats11]

slats11 - great post.

I think the South Korea data is probably the best for looking at CFR (circa 1%) - they have done the greatest level of testing as far as I can see and also have one of the lowest CFRs. So either a) they have a best treatment/health service response, or b) they have weaker "strain" of Covid (2 have been identified but no one seems to think one is more or less virulent than the other) or c) they have a much better (and higher) count of overall cases as they have been testing the most people?

This sort of assumption also works for the current UK CFR numbers that to me look high as a proportion of overall cases but we've only been testing folks who have presented at hospitals with significant symptoms.

There's no way to prove any of this is true/false at the moment as we don't have apples or oranges to compare. That being said your analysis looks sensible to me.

We would all like Korea's CFR. It is low because
1. A lot of cases were in the religious cult = young adults
2. They rounded up and tested the members of that cult - and diagnosed cases where people were positive but had no symptoms (= very mild disease). It is hard to die from a resp infection if it is not causing any resp symptoms. All these subclinical cases got bundled up into their CFR. In Australia, these people are walking around spreading the disease.
3. Unlike UK, Italy, USA, Aust etc, Korea has increased its number of beds over time in line with its ageing population. Oddly enough, we have done the opposite. So they have a greater surge capacity.

China did a neat trick for 48 hours. Allowed clinical and radiological diagnosis (rather than microbiological confirmed) for 48 hours to get a whole lot extra cases (15,000 from memory) into their dataset - and significantly lower their CFR.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1358x710/screen_shot_2020_03_17_at_01_36_19_7265580a1c7dd3eacd7cf89cb 4b899f9d23c8288.png

[Mascot PPL]

slats11 - thanks for that - interesting.

If I was china I'd be selling my "Build a 1,000 bed hospital in a week" model around the world right now.....

Given the number of bed blockers in UK hospitals (no local care places) I can't believe we can't bulk purchase hotels (as per the heathrow quarantine location a few weeks back), shift a load of "low nursing requirement" folks out to these "hospitels" and use final year student nurses and medics to keep an eye on them to free up beds in proper hospitals for the surge to come. Mind you - given the volumes expected this probably buys 1-2 weeks capacity at best...... Enough time for china to build us a few 1,000 bed units?

[slats11]

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15/first-results-of-general-population-screening-about-1-of-icelanders-with-coronavirus/

So they already had 180 known cases (zero deaths). Thats a fair number in a small country (0.05% of their population), but they do like to travel.

They then swabbed volunteers from their population. Found another 7 positive results from 700 swabs (1% positive). That number will firm up with a few thousand more swabs coming back over the next few days.
The true number of people who should have a positive swab will be a bit higher than 1% as swabs miss 20-30% of cases. So maybe they had 10 positives, and the swabs found 7 of them - something like that.
Hence perhaps 1.2% of their population currently could have a positive swab if the swabs were perfect.
Then there is going to be even more people who would have previously had a positive swab a week or two back, but are now negative.
So perhaps 1.5% of the population currently have the virus, or have already cleared the virus.

Playing with the math a bit more (and this is stretching things a bit I accept, we don't know if the 700 swabs are a representative cross section of their society):
Population Iceland = 365,000
They already knew about 180 cases from routine medical care
But there could be another 5,475 unknown cases (1.5% population).

So not that many cases will ever get diagnosed.

Note that half the cases didn't have any symptoms, and the rest thought they had a cold.

Anyway if somewhere like Iceland (small and remote from China) now has something like 1.5% of its asymptomatic / minimally symptomatic population infected, it is going to be way higher than 1% in Australia (and about 100% in Sydney)

This suggests there is a fair chunk of under-water ice with the corona iceberg.

[J.O.]

So when an atomic inspector gives Iran the all-clear you believe that too?
Yes. Two reasons:

The data supports their findings.
I don't have a tinfoil hat. Conspiracy theorists love to be suspicious of everyone else - no matter what their level of qualification and commitment to their craft - but would lose their minds at the suggestion that they themselves would violate their own professional ethics for some nefarious reason.

[Berealgetreal]

slats11 - thanks for that - interesting.

If I was china I'd be selling my "Build a 1,000 bed hospital in a week" model around the world right now.....

Given the number of bed blockers in UK hospitals (no local care places) I can't believe we can't bulk purchase hotels (as per the heathrow quarantine location a few weeks back), shift a load of "low nursing requirement" folks out to these "hospitels" and use final year student nurses and medics to keep an eye on them to free up beds in proper hospitals for the surge to come. Mind you - given the volumes expected this probably buys 1-2 weeks capacity at best...... Enough time for china to build us a few 1,000 bed units?

We are too slow moving and have leaders that are paralysed by fear of making the wrong decision. In the end what will get us will be an overwhelmed medical system.

I hate to say it but this is really serious on multiple levels. Media, Business, Government and the WHO have totally misled the public.

Best example of this is masks. They don’t want YOU to wear a mask so THEY (hospitals) can wear one. You should not only wear a mask but also eye protection. Have you seen the doctors in Italy and China? They are dressed like they are at Chernobyl 1987. I’ve been following this very closely (non main stream media). Why won’t they close schools? Doctors and nurses have children at schools. No schools=No medical staff.

Real dog eat dog. Protect yourself and your family. Good luck.

[Massey1Bravo]

We are too slow moving and have leaders that are paralysed by fear of making the wrong decision. In the end what will get us will be an overwhelmed medical system.

Yep.

e-XPL91r0uk

Best example of this is masks. They don’t want YOU to wear a mask so THEY (hospitals) can wear one.

Governments around the world should've seized all retail stocks weeks ago like France did, and tell everyone to DIY masks.

[dr dre]

Yep.
Governments around the world should've seized all retail stocks weeks ago like France did, and tell everyone to DIY masks.

If you are a healthy person, not only is wearing a mask useless, you’re also limiting the supply for those who need them.

You need to wear one if you are sick (flu like symptoms) and going out in public, Ad you should only be going out of sick if it’s absolutely necessary. Otherwise don’t wear a mask.

Our vulnerable populations are those ones who will need the masks, so don’t be a tosser and deprive them of masks.

[Berealgetreal]

If you are a healthy person, not only is wearing a mask useless, you’re also limiting the supply for those who need them.

You need to wear one if you are sick (flu like symptoms) and going out in public, Ad you should only be going out of sick if it’s absolutely necessary. Otherwise don’t wear a mask.

Our vulnerable populations are those ones who will need the masks, so don’t be a tosser and deprive them of masks.

Sorry that’s wrong, you limit the amount of exposure giving the body a chance to mount its own defence. If it made no difference why are France and hospitals scrambling to get them. Don’t believe the media government your company or the WHO, they have THEIR agendas your agenda is YOUR health and YOUR family.

[dr dre]

Sorry that’s wrong, you limit the amount of exposure giving the body a chance to mount its own defence. If it made no difference why are France and hospitals scrambling to get them. Don’t believe the media government your company or the WHO, they have THEIR agendas your agenda is YOUR health and YOUR family.

Silly fearmongering nonsense:

Surgical masks in the community are only helpful in preventing people who have coronavirus disease from spreading it to others. If you are well, you do not need to wear a surgical mask as there is little evidence supporting the widespread use of surgical masks in healthy people to prevent transmission in public

Coronavirus (COVID-19) information on the use of surgical masks (https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-information-on-the-use-of-surgical-masks-coronavirus-covid-19-information-on-the-use-of-surgical-masks.pdf)


If you are NOT sick: You do not need to wear a facemask unless you are caring for someone who is sick (and they are not able to wear a facemask). Facemasks may be in short supply and they should be saved for caregivers.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fco ronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fprevention.html)


Stop with the conspiracy theorist rubbish. It’s those who tell others to ignore the guidance of health professionals that causes these problems. Just like the toilet paper hoarders.

A Comment like that are the last thing that needs to be made in the current environment.

[777Nine]

I'm not surprised Italy has it so bad. Ageing population and a pretty ****ty health system. Even at the best of times you wouldn't want to get sick in Italy.

I sincerely hope that we can deal with this a bit better.

[Berealgetreal]

So you would be happy for someone with the condition to sneeze in your face?

Northern Italy hasn’t got a **** health system. Lombardy is one of the wealthiest parts of Europe. There’s a good chance the reporting is accurate and therefore showing the reality unlike Indonesia or China who suddenly is cured!

[dr dre]

So you would be happy for someone with the condition to sneeze in your face?


I’ve never had someone sneeze into my face in public so close that they will pass on a virus that will cause me significant health problems. That is a one in a billion chance that is so small it isn’t worth worrying about.

You know who is at risk from that? Healthcare workers, who are around sick and vulnerable people 24/7. They are the ones who need a well stocked supply of masks. So situations like these are avoided which are perpetuated by BS conspiracy theorist fearmongering hoarders like yourself who are putting our frontline healthcare heroes at risk:

Coronavirus COVID-19 mask shortages mean GPs are shopping at hardware stores for supplies (https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-05/coronavirus-covid-19-gps-cant-get-face-masks/12023752?pfmredir=sm)

[TimmyTee]

1 in a billion chance that someone in your vicinity does a dirty big sneeze without covering up? You know aerosol/airborne particles don’t just drop straight down to the ground yeah?

[dr dre]

1 in a billion chance that someone in your vicinity does a dirty big sneeze without covering up? You know aerosol/airborne particles don’t just drop straight down to the ground yeah?

I'm not worried about it enough to start panic hoarding masks and depriving frontline health workers and vulnerable populations of them.

[slats11]

Believe whatever you want about the general public's need for high grade PPE. Social distancing will do far more than a N95 with no eye protection. But believe whatever you want.

But believe this also. When the PPE is gone, so are the frontline staff.

[Icarus2001]

So next steps?

No foreign arrivals allowed, only citizens? Malaysia announced that yesterday.

After that it is NO ARRIVALS at all.

Just stop and think about that for a minute,

[topend3]

It’s practically no arrivals now anyway as with the 14 day policy give it a few weeks and nobody’s coming.

[slats11]

Bit of freight. That's it.

We won't let foreign nationals in as they very often can't quarantine for 14 days
Other countries won't let Australians in for the same reason.
Thats the international ball game.

Domestic operations only 60% down for now. But will go deeper - people are already scared of airports and flying, and the people haven't seen anything to be really scared about yet.

Notice Flight Centre squealed about these measures and Qantas didn't.
Guess who has been told there is a bail-out if he plays ball.

[Berealgetreal]

I’ve never had someone sneeze into my face in public so close that they will pass on a virus that will cause me significant health problems. That is a one in a billion chance that is so small it isn’t worth worrying about.

You know who is at risk from that? Healthcare workers, who are around sick and vulnerable people 24/7. They are the ones who need a well stocked supply of masks. So situations like these are avoided which are perpetuated by BS conspiracy theorist fearmongering hoarders like yourself who are putting our frontline healthcare heroes at risk:

Coronavirus COVID-19 mask shortages mean GPs are shopping at hardware stores for supplies (https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-05/coronavirus-covid-19-gps-cant-get-face-masks/12023752?pfmredir=sm)

You’re getting a bit carried away now. You’re now calling me a fearmogerer and horder with no evidence.

I’ve got some masks in my shed for working around the house. Have I used them to protect myself from Covid-19? No not yet. Will I use them? Don’t know, I’ll judge it on the day.

My issue is with Governments, the WHO and business telling lies about about the effectiveness of protective masks. It’s patently clear that if someone sneezes and you have a mask on you have reduced (probably not eliminated) the number of particles entering your body via nose and mouth thus giving the body a greater chance of mounting some defence. As far as I’m concerned the spread of this misinformation is negligent at best.

I’ve told my elderly parents (lung issues) to buy a couple of masks to use if they venture out along with the other precautions. They initially said it won’t help as that’s what they’ve been told. Not ideal as that puts them at risk when they don’t need to be. In my case mine are in the shed, hardly hoarding.

It’s pretty simple to ask outlets to restrict sale or not put them on the shelf rather than confuse and mislead people that might have them in a cupboard or could make something at home.

The evidence indicates the larger the number of particles inhaled the more aggressive the symptoms and outcome. Possibly why the youngsters in Italy (too much romance) are coming down with terrible pneumonia.

[Car RAMROD]

Be prepared for the borders to be closed in the not too distant future.

DFAT has said to Aussies overseas should return home before the virus caused more borders to close. They didn’t state which borders though.

Couple that with the below advice issued today from Smarttraveller:
We now advise all Australians: do not travel overseas at this time. This is our highest advice level (level 4 of 4).

If you are already overseas and wish to return to Australia, we recommend you do so as soon as possible by commercial means.

Regardless of your destination, age or health, our advice is do not travel at this time.



reading between the lines, Australia closing its borders entirely is not beyond the realm of possibility.
Alarmist? Maybe a little. But beware of the possibility, soon.

[Nervous SLF]

A New Zealander who arrived home from Thailand yesterday morning says the Covid-19 measures at Auckland Airport
are "loose" and she felt safer in Southeast Asia."the customs officer who checked her passport casually said, "Are you well?"

"Of course you're going to be like, 'yup' - you just want to get in there."

"It seemed like butt-covering rather than thorough investigation,"

She was also amazed to see travellers greeted in the arrivals hall by friends and family.

"There were planes coming in from category-1 countries... and these people are picking them up and having a hug with them."

She overheard a man in front of her in the queue for Customs saying he was from the United Kingdom and was
in New Zealand for two weeks. She later saw him pick up a brochure on tourist hotspots to visit in New Zealand.

She called out to him and asked why he was picking up a site-seeing brochure if he would be in self-isolation the whole time
he was here, but he looked at her, looked away and walked off.

Alas she didn't then say that she reported this person so that he could be investigated.

[Chris2303]

A New Zealander who arrived home from Thailand yesterday morning says the Covid-19 measures at Auckland Airport
are "loose" and she felt safer in Southeast Asia."the customs officer who checked her passport casually said, "Are you well?"

"Of course you're going to be like, 'yup' - you just want to get in there."

"It seemed like butt-covering rather than thorough investigation,"

She was also amazed to see travellers greeted in the arrivals hall by friends and family.

"There were planes coming in from category-1 countries... and these people are picking them up and having a hug with them."

She overheard a man in front of her in the queue for Customs saying he was from the United Kingdom and was
in New Zealand for two weeks. She later saw him pick up a brochure on tourist hotspots to visit in New Zealand.

She called out to him and asked why he was picking up a site-seeing brochure if he would be in self-isolation the whole time
he was here, but he looked at her, looked away and walked off.

Alas she didn't then say that she reported this person so that he could be investigated.

Never mind - look forward to a New Zealand border closure sooner rather than later.

[Harbour Dweller]

Sooner just arrived! NZ shut.

Australia also announced it's closing its borders to any non-citizen or non-resident of the country.

Mr Morrison said he had consulted New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern about Australia's new travel ban prior to announcing it.

"The New Zealand arrangement, in the same way as it has in the past, doesn't apply to Australians living in New Zealand as New Zealand residents," he said.

"Equally for New Zealanders living in Australia as Australian residents, these are the same rules that apply in both countries.

[plainmaker]

Sooner just arrived! NZ shut.

Australia also announced it's closing its borders to any non-citizen or resident of the country.

I sincerely doubt that Australia is closing its borders to residents - in fact ScoMo is telling people to come 'home'

[das Uber Soldat]

I sincerely doubt that Australia is closing its borders to residents - in fact ScoMo is telling people to come 'home'
Do you really not know what he meant, or are you just happy to nitpick at utterly trivial errors that other people make?

[nonsense]

Might as well close the borders all together. As if people are going to self isolate. Impossible to police.

Straightforward to police; randomly show up at the designated isolation address several times in the 14 days. Won't take much in the way of resources.
The penalties for non compliance are serious; why would you risk fines of around $10k?

[Asturias56]

"I sincerely doubt that Australia is closing its borders to residents - in fact ScoMo is telling people to come 'home'

Problem will be finding an airline who is operating - and of course transit will be a problem in a lot of places

[gtseraf]

too true, soon the borders will not have to be closed, as there will be no vehicles (aircraft, ships) to pass through the borders.

Many people who are not where they want to be right now, may very well end up having to stay where they are for the next couple of months.

[Icarus2001]

Straightforward to police; randomly show up at the designated isolation address several times in the 14 days. Won't take much in the way of resources.

Technically yes, it is possible. How many police get allocated? They work in pairs, they can check maybe one address in 15 minutes? Thousands of arrivals since the isolation rule came in. Not possible even to sample a small percent. This relies mainly on self control, people cannot be seen at work or out of their house by neighbours as they may get dobbed in, what a strange situation.

"Designated Isolation Address"? No such thing. On the immigration arrival card you write your "intended" address but your intentions may change. The numbers make it difficult to effectively control.

I think circumstances will overtake the isolation rule anyway, pretty soon many venues will be closed, so not much choice but to stay home. Are friends really going to gather at each other's houses as the spectre of infection grows?

[Lantern10]

We have three people stuck in this situation now. The sales manager and his wife are stuck in Thailand trying to get back. they were due back this weekend anyway, and the GM has his teenage son stuck in Spain.

[givemewings]

The "masks don't help you unless you're sick" held up before.

Not now we know theres a high chance of asymptomatic carriers.

The worst thing the WHO did was perpuate this mask myth. They should have been honest, said yes, they can help to a degree, however at this time they need to be prioritised for HCW until supply catches up as that's the best chance of stopping this.

The "mask stigma" has prevented many who should be wearing them from doing so earlier...

[Sunfish]

Icarus, the Police were sampling the self quarantine population and it was reported they found 20% non compliance. That is why we now have involuntary quarantine under guard and $1600 on the spot fines fo non compliance with voluntary quarantine.

[Asturias56]

Amazes me they didn't go to this a week away - all the evidence from Europe , and especially the UK , shows you are forced to go to lock-down eventually .

[Foxxster]

The "masks don't help you unless you're sick" held up before.

Not now we know theres a high chance of asymptomatic carriers.

The worst thing the WHO did was perpuate this mask myth. They should have been honest, said yes, they can help to a degree, however at this time they need to be prioritised for HCW until supply catches up as that's the best chance of stopping this.

The "mask stigma" has prevented many who should be wearing them from doing so earlier...


I wouldn’t listen to a thing the entirely corrupt WHO says. There are plenty of other experts to listen to.

Maybe the WHO can order some from India. I imagine that some health worker will end up wearing these. They would be better off with nothing. How many other places like this exist in India, China etc. Can any mask be trusted.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sB8Vr_1585541392&fbclid=IwAR2-3ZX4et1nv3PIwtlSqyewIx-Dq6xYb08XDyzmPwymjgcRmmgIlZB9aLs

[SOPS]

The WHO can’t even answer a question about Taiwan.. pretending not to hear the question. It makes we question everything it says regarding this virus, seeing it came out of China.

[Dookie on Drums]

I wouldn’t listen to a thing the entirely corrupt WHO says. There are plenty of other experts to listen to.

Maybe the WHO can order some from India. I imagine that some health worker will end up wearing these. They would be better off with nothing. How many other places like this exist in India, China etc. Can any mask be trusted.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sB8Vr_1585541392&fbclid=IwAR2-3ZX4et1nv3PIwtlSqyewIx-Dq6xYb08XDyzmPwymjgcRmmgIlZB9aLs

Exactly right. Many experts encourage wearing them. If there's no point wearing a mask then why are the police, Defence forces, nurses, doctors, etc wearing them? It is merely a ploy to stop people hoarding them as there is/was a shortage and the frontline needed them.

[Icarus2001]

all the evidence from Europe , and especially the UK , shows you are forced to go to lock-down eventually Depends what you call "lock down" as in the UK people can go out to shop and exercise, go to a pharmacy etc. In Spain similar, not TOTAL lock down.

Australia's numbers (the curve) is looking quite good at present.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/760x447/new_and_cumulative_covid_19_cases_in_australia_by_notificati on_date_9_4287a074ae976e112c3da342040782cf885285ae.png

[Dookie on Drums]

Depends what you call "lock down" as in the UK people can go out to shop and exercise, go to a pharmacy etc. In Spain similar, not TOTAL lock down.

Australia's numbers (the curve) is looking quite good at present.

Only because less testing was done in the last few days.

[Icarus2001]

Only because less testing was done in the last few days. Can you provide a source or link for that assertion?

[Dookie on Drums]

Can you provide a source or link for that assertion?

I shall try but it came out this morning either on TV or radio by one of our Medical Advisors..Standby

[Foxxster]

Exactly right. Many experts encourage wearing them. If there's no point wearing a mask then why are the police, Defence forces, nurses, doctors, etc wearing them? It is merely a ploy to stop people hoarding them as there is/was a shortage and the frontline needed them.

I wasn’t saying masks were not effective. The P2 or N95 can block the saliva drops that the virus is carried on. They also block you from touching your mouth and nose.

my point about being better off without masks relates to the video in the link I provided. I wonder how many millions are being produced in similar disgusting conditions but nicely packaged so the end user is none the wiser. And seeing as many of the N95 masks are made in the home of counterfeiting, China, how many fakes are being sold to hospitals etc..

[Dookie on Drums]

Can you provide a source or link for that assertion?

It was just mentioned again on the evening news that a case of "weekenditis" stopped a lot from getting tested. However, most agree not to get too excited yet. Let's see how this week pans out.

[Dookie on Drums]

I wasn’t saying masks were not effective. The P2 or N95 can block the saliva drops that the virus is carried on. They also block you from touching your mouth and nose.

Sorry, perhaps I was unclear but I am agreeing with you.

[Foxxster]

Sorry, perhaps I was unclear but I am agreeing with you.

yep, just wanted to make sure people watched the video and realised that was what I was referring to. Unbelievable..

[Chris2303]

Only because less testing was done in the last few days.

Only yesterday Saint Jacinda said that there had not been enough testing done, especially over the weekend. She said that from now on clinicians will test if the patient has any of the symptoms without regard to any recent travel. The new mantra is "test, test, test"