More people training to be professional pilots??

[Kapooley]

Is it just me or is there more people (since Sept 11) training to be professional pilots?

Exam halls are now full of people taking their ATPL exams as are the brushup courses at Oxford and probably other schools.

You can call me an old cynical b***ard but doing some simple sums tells me that theres going some very unhappy people around in a few years when it comes to jobs!

At the height of airline travel just before Sept 11, BA only employed around 3000 pilots. It would seem that half this number are graduating every year with new CPLs.

Please this is just one man's opinion and I'm in the dark as everyone else is, but its quite worrying to think that the airline world will need somekind of revolution in order for all these to gain jobs!!!!!

[tacpot]

The numbers in the UK Government's consultation papers of Airport expansion have to be seen to be believed!

For the Midlands, they are predicting a near four-fold increase in passenger flights. Either the aeroplanes will have to get four times bigger or they will be needing four times as many pilots!

The numbers go out to 2030, so this growth isn't going to happen overnight. But I think it probably will happen pretty much as the governement see it.

I think for some people there are no longer the barriers to entry to the profession that there once were. The only people who can't re-mortgage their house and get £60K instantly, are the poor s*ds who couldn't afford to buy a house in the first place.

[foghorn]

Possibly some people going for it now that the JARs have bedded in who were previously standing back waiting?

Plus the financial factor tacpot mentions.

[scroggs]

I agree, if your impressions of the numbers taking exams now are correct, there will be a lot of disappointed wannabes out there over the next few years.

[Dr.Evil 2002]

I must beg to differ here, from what I can see at Oxford the number of courses has dropped (anyone from Oxford admin - if there is such a thing - to give the figures here?)
When I started my course at the tail end of last year it was a busy place, now there are a lot of Algerian Air Force and Khalifa courses but not as many AP courses starting.

[Kapooley]

It just appears that the airline industry would need an exponential rise in passenger numbers to support the numbers of guys now qualifying- and thats just for today, not to mention the guys who will qualify two or three years from now. Seems that almost all new PPL holders are heading off to do ATPLs and hour building.

I chose Oxford as an example. I know even though there have been redundancies it is still a popular school for the ATPL writtens.

Does anyone know how many CPL/ATPL holders actually go on and fly for the majors after self-funding?? Perhaps 25% of them or even less??:rolleyes:

[fibod]

I don't have numbers to hand, but there must be a dramatic drop in the number of European pilots training for the fATPL now. All the decent sponsorship programmes are dead (bmi, BA, Aer Lingus to name 3). WMU has closed its doors to JAA training. PPSC, 4 forces & SFT are out of business. We've had a huge number of redundancies. We are also blessed with large Algerian contracts to keep us afloat. The CAA has reduced the number of staff Flight Examiners. (Were down to 2 from 3, the Exeter examiner has retired and not been replaced). Other than that, you may be right. ("What else did the Romans do for us" for Monty Python fans).

Never, in the history of PPRuNe, has my signature been more applicable.

[juggernaut]

It seems to me the number of people in the training system is a lot less than two years ago, I know that only 8 people at Glasgow poly at the last intake and for a fact only a few people completing CPL modular in the North, however at the moment there is no throughput to the airlines and there are plenty of qualified instructors waiting for that elusive job. I know of at least eleven bods with over 1000 hours and ATPL /IR . This lack of prospects doesn't seem to stop people dreaming and lots of PPL hopefuls are starting off down the long expensive road, I just hope they bear in mind that its a long queue and there at the back!

[Kapooley]

Good point there fibod. Hadn't thought about 4 forces etc. Although saying this I heard a few months back that Jeppesen ran out of those student pilot manuals. So unless they were hand made :) there must have been some kind of surge in people taking ATPLs; apart from my own observations!!!!

[Gazeem]

This thread is a depressing read, but it is based upon impression not facts.

The real facts to monitior are the CAA figures for the issue of new CPLs and IRs. This is the indicator of the amount of newly qualified pilots emerging from the system to available jobs.

Also:

Not all PPLs who begin ATPLs will finish.

Until recently if you wanted a PPL/IR you had no choice but to take the full suite of ATPL exams.

Some people may want to become professional instructors or carry out aerial work.

A proportion of people will be retaking exams..so that room full of people is not rolling off the production line every month.

So chin up people! Let's not talk ourselves into despair!

[skysheriff]

wannabes must be crazy to start training for a fATPL after 11/9.
before 11/9 there was a glimpse of hope for any low-hours wannabe with a British/JAR fATPL but thereafter...
there are lotz of qualified and experienced skippers out there with 1000s of jet hours waiting for any decent job.

What do those wannabes hope ? They will end up working in Macdonalds (i am not even sure Macdonalds will hire them) and living in a slum with a repossed house if they mortgaged theirs in order to finance their training ! this is totally irresponsible.

[monkeyboy]

Cheers mate!

:eek:

[pg123608]

I did my Class 1 medical in May this year. One of the examiners told me that there had been a drastic drop in the number of people coming for the Class 1 since September 11th. It's a casual relationship, but I reckon a lower number of Class 1's issued now may well mean fewer CPL's coming through in the next couple of years.

[scroggs]

Gazeem,

you're quite right, this thread is based on subjective impressions, not objective facts. However, it does address the ever-present concern that there will be more candidates than positions when you come to try and find employment.

The fact is, there have always been more wannabes than flying jobs. Fortunately for you Pprune Wannabes, who tend to be a bit more determined and resourceful than average, many of your peers not so resolute will drop out of the game at a relatively early stage. That doesn't exactly leave the way clear, because you will always be subject to the variables of the market. Right now, things aren't great. It's a fair bet that the excess of wannabes over jobs is higher than for a good long while, and the numbers coming through, while possibly lower than usual, are sufficient to perpetuate that situation for some time.

Unfortunately, desire and ability aren't always enough to get what you want; opportunity plays a huge part. If there are no new jobs, no-one gets employed. Call it luck if you like, but that's life. That's why we always advise you to have a back-up plan so taht you can survive until things improve.

[Nigey]

Scroggs

I've been off line for absolutely ages. After 9/11 you were talking about losing your position at Virgin. Did that happen? What are you up to these days??

I know it's nosey of me but I'm interested...

NigelS

[TRon]

The graduate with a Science degree asks, "Why does it work?"

The graduate with an Engineering degree asks, "How does it work?"

The graduate with an Accounting degree asks, "How much will it cost?"

The graduate with a CPL/IR asks, "Do you want fries with that?"

[foghorn]

Good one.

And the university graduate with a CPL/IR thinks 'thank god for my backup degree as I never fancied flipping burgers'.

All of you young wannabes thinking about dumping your education in pursuit of a CPL/IR take note.

cheers!
foggy.

[Limey]

Juggernaught I think that your queue is in your own head

Luck and providence play a big part in the equation, also it is a fact that who you know is sometimes as important as what you know. Any qualified pilot who has top notch networking and presentation skills (as well as good flying skills and experience) will jump the queue every time !

[Dr.Evil 2002]

As for Skysherrif's comments I think a good bit of positive thinking is needed. Mcdonalds may not take on you my friend but im sure they would take on the rest of the professional, positive and resourceful individuals that visit this site, the "Wannabes" as you so kindly put it.
Nice to see your so supportive of your fellow colleagues!

[scroggs]

TRon

I'm sure that joke was originally about navigators......:D

Nigey

See this thread. (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=62178)

[Gazeem]

Here's a thought, the Wannabe conference was full with a long list of reserves after about 2 weeks last year - from what I remember.

This year only about 10 peeps are up after a few weeks. I'm sure IFR has the full details.

Now, too many people training??

I'd call this a combat indicator!

[BEagle]

Another point - this time regarding military pilots leaving for the airlines.

Whilst it is much more straightforward now for an 'experienced' Qualified Service Pilot to obtain an ATPL/IR (e.g. if you have 2000TT, of which 1500 are on an approved ME type with at least 1000 P1C on that type and you're a graduate of an approved ME OCU, then all you need to do is to pass JAA Air Law, get a CAA Examiner to watch your IRT, get yourself a Class 1 medical, pay the money and the ATPL/IR is yours), fewer are leaving right now due to financial retention incentives and general shrinkage. This has lead to the people at Binnsworth being more robust with manning decisions - but once the airline job market picks up again, there will be quite a few QSPs who now have that little green book in their back pocket beating a path to the airline recruiters' doors......

There has been an increase in the number of RW mates getting FW licences at PPL level and FJ mates sorting out their hours requirements for civil professional licences. Even though they may have no intention of using them right now, the fact that there are military pilots out there with several thousand hours and current licences just sitting and waiting must be a very bitter pill for many Wannabees to swallow......

The military ATPL accreditation ruling was introduced to improve recruiting and retention in the Armed Forces. The excellent rights under this accreditation will encourage more to join, stay for the length of time it takes them to qualify for an ATPL and then leave in their mid-30s with plenty of experience and another potential 20-25 years of flying ahead of them having given 10-15 years to HM.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Alex - have you seen much of a downturn in people booking/enquiring ATPL theory courses?

Obviously a commercial sensitive question but a generalised outline would be useful in this discussion.

Cheers

WWW

[Gazeem]

BEagle,

QSPs in light blue will never be a threat, civil air requires pilots to fly in cloud!:)

[fibod]

Spoken like a true underdog ;)

[Alex Whittingham]

Overall it has been fairly constant since August last year. The surprise was that there was no detectable downturn after September 11.

All the UK airlines I talk to have been recruiting quietly for some months. I doubt there are many type rated B737 Captains and FOs left out there.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Thanks Alex. I concur with your observations. I note BA are now recruiting albeit their previoulsy mothballed cadets.

With the expansion of easyJet/Go, Astraeus, BMIbaby, Channex and Excel ALL usuing B737's then I cannot imagine there are many unemployed 73 drivers out there. Of course Brit World, Sabena and BMI laid off quite a few but they must have been soaked up by now methinks.

Look out for non-type rated adverts this Autumn! :)

WWW

[RVR800]

There was a loss of 1150 pilot jobs reported by Balpa after
9/11. Many of these type rated experienced people are still
unemployed.

JAA licensed pilots can now work anywhere in Europe
and many pilots are getting jobs in the expanding UK low
cost sector however Go routes are being axed by EZ as consolidation occurs

It will improve - Jam tomorrow ?

[Gin Slinger]

Alex, as a one of your students, I've noticed just how many ex-PPSC and SFT students there are at Bristol - these must be inflating your numbers upwards somewhat.

[Hap Hazard]

:eek: Its pretty quiet out there, I have 600hrs Turbo time and 1000hrs jet and am finding it pretty hard to get any interest.
I think it will be some time yet before we see better times.
Hi Alex, from one of your ex students......

[RVR800]

"The airlines lost last year as much as they had ever made since the Wright Brothers started flying in 1903"

[Land ASAP]

How come, when I went to the CAA in Feb to get the words A319/320 put in my Greenie, was I the only person in the waiting room for the whole hour it took to get it validated?
The previous time I was in there I waited 4 hours having joined a queue of around 20. That was in '98.

My point is there is a serious impending shortage. The original post might well be trying to give the 'employed' amongst us the opinion that there's plenty wannabees out there to take our place at half the cost....Yeah right......

[foghorn]

In the two years March 2000 - March 2002 the CAA issued 300 IRs to CPL(A) holders. That's 150 per year.

All through the late nineties, the CAA was issuing 400 IRs per year, year in year out.

This from the CAA's own published licensing statistics.

cheers!
foggy.

[RVR800]

What one really needs to know is how many
of the

10,475 ATPL(A) and 3,352 CPL(A) holders on the
CAA site stats hold ratings for multi-crew aircraft?

We know that about 3000 work for BA and about
3000 work for the rest that leaves about 8000?

What exactly are they doing - sitting at a desk
like me?

We should be told. This info is highly sensitive.
so you wont get it. It would affect future revenue
for the CAA?

[no sponsor]

Now, I've been PPRUNing for some years (despite having all my posts reduced to zero some months ago) and I disintictly recall:

- in 1999-2001 there was:

A - an influx of high houred Aussies and Kiwis and SAs competing with 509ers and low houred chappies from the UK. Remember Easyjet and BM advertising in the Oz post?

B - an constant stream of European nationals coming to this country to take up positions

It was still hard then, and now we are saying these are gloomy times - but the truth be known it has always been tough.

I know of several 'modular' students who took 2-3 years to secure a job only in the months leading up to 11/9. I personally do not see what has changed. Things are still tough. OK the influx of foriegn pilots may account for the lack of CAA licence issue for those with grandfather rights, but anyone from the EU has the right to come and work here with their JAA licence. Therefore, looking at the CAA does not show the true story.

Don't you think that when the 'good times roll' it will just revert to how it was a few years ago?

[foghorn]

a few thousand instructors?

[Andy@Aviation]

SKY SHERIFF,

Have you not got anything positive to add to this forum??

We need all the support we can get right now and you don't help any?


A@A.

[redsnail]

From one of the CAA examiners in June 02. They had to convene a meeting because they are flat out doing initial IR's for the antipodeans arriving in the UK. Many with 737, 146, J31, CRJ and Saab 340 time.
It will improve again. Just when for the low houred pilots is another question. My tip is 2003/2004.