Future of the USN Carrier Force

[ORAC]

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/03/beyond-uss-ford-navy-will-study-next-generation-aircraft-carriers-exclusive/

Beyond the Ford: Navy Studies Next-Gen Carriers

WASHINGTON: The Navy is launching a deep dive into the future of its aircraft carrier fleet, Breaking Defense has learned, even as the Secretary of Defense, dissatisfied with current Navy plans (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/esper-to-navy-rethink-your-shipbuilding-plan/), conducts his own assessment. The two studies clearly show the deepening concern over how China’s growing might and the Pentagon’s eroding budgets could affect the iconic, expensive supercarriers.

The Future Carrier 2030 Task Force, which the service plans to announce next week, will take six months to study how carriers stack up against new generations of stealthy submarines and long-range precision weapons being fielded by China and Russia. It comes at a fraught moment time for the fleet, as Defense Secretary Mark Esper has taken personal ownership over the service’s force planning while publicly (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/exclusive-secdef-esper-seeks-detente-with-hasc-new-navy-plan-this-summer/)lambast (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/exclusive-secdef-esper-seeks-detente-with-hasc-new-navy-plan-this-summer/)ing the Navy’s deployment model (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/exclusive-secdef-esper-seeks-detente-with-hasc-new-navy-plan-this-summer/) as broken.......

For decades, American aircraft carrier strike groups, led by massive big decks bristling with fighter planes and surveillance aircraft, have been the key to US power projection. But with new generations of long-range precision weapons that can smack into a carrier from well beyond the horizon, military planners have started rethinking the risks of putting a 100,000-ton supercarrier anywhere near a contested coastline.

“The Navy is realizing they need to change that approach and perhaps think about using carriers in more peripheral ways in a fight,” Bryan Clark, senior fellow at Hudson Institute, said. Instead of launching aircraft for strike missions deep inland, as they’ve been used in Iraq and Afghanistan, they’re more likely to “hang out out of range and do sea control,” covering down on large swaths of ocean.

In February, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower performed just such a mission (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/uss-eisenhower-leads-exercise-to-clear-atlantic-shipping-lanes/), sweeping a path across the Atlantic for cargo ships full of Army equipment bound for major ground exercise in Europe. The expercise, run under the newly reconstituted 2nd Fleet, was the first drill simulating a contested crossing of the Atlantic since 1986.

The Ike, along with an unidentified submarine sweeping the depths of the ocean for unexpected Russian guests, sailed well ahead of the convoy while fighting off simulated electronic warfare and undersea and aerial attacks in a stress test for how prepared the Navy is to punch its way across the Atlantic.

As the Pentagon and Navy hash out what the Navy of the future should look like to meet challenges posed by China, they are experimenting everywhere. Navy and Marine Corps leadership have warmed to the “lightning carrier” concept (https://breakingdefense.com/2019/11/ford-aircraft-carriers-not-ready-for-f-35s-so-aging-vinson-gets-the-call/), designed to pack amphibious ships with Marine Corps’ F-35Bs and sail them to the hotspots to cover places the big decks aren’t.

Late last year, the USS America photographed in the Pacific with 13 F-35s on its deck, something the services want to do more of as the so-called Gator Navy reinforces more decks to handle the fifth generation fighter. The Marines and Navy are working on a new strategy (https://breakingdefense.com/2019/10/commandant-marine-not-optimized-for-great-power-competition-or/) to more closely align their operations, which would allow both to provide more punch, and give the Marines the ability to launch from both ships and from small ad-hoc land bases to support the fleet.

Any potentially smaller carrier of the future will not be as small as an amphibious ship, as those ships can’t support high sortie rates over long periods of time like a Nimitz or Ford carrier. They would, however, certainly be smaller than the hulking Fords...........

[racedo]

In February, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower performed just such a mission (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/02/uss-eisenhower-leads-exercise-to-clear-atlantic-shipping-lanes/), sweeping a path across the Atlantic for cargo ships full of Army equipment bound for major ground exercise in Europe. The expercise, run under the newly reconstituted 2nd Fleet, was the first drill simulating a contested crossing of the Atlantic since 1986.


I believe there was an exercise in last 15 years relying on a NATO convoy enforcement across the Atlantic which provided lots of learnings and none of them good.


The Ike, along with an unidentified submarine sweeping the depths of the ocean for unexpected Russian guests, sailed well ahead of the convoy while fighting off simulated electronic warfare and undersea and aerial attacks in a stress test for how prepared the Navy is to punch its way across the Atlantic.


But sitting on bottom completely silent waiting for convoy was what Wolfpacks did 75 years ago, irrespective of escorts that were ahead. Why would that strategy change ?
Add in underwater drones etc etc and it becomes a bit more of a difficult exercise to protect shipping.

What is airlift capacity required for transferring a complete division from US to Europe ?
Yes I know it woukld be substantial but aircraft would be doing 14 flights a week V shipping.


As the Pentagon and Navy hash out what the Navy of the future should look like to meet challenges posed by China, they are experimenting everywhere. Navy and Marine Corps leadership have warmed to the “lightning carrier” concept (https://breakingdefense.com/2019/11/ford-aircraft-carriers-not-ready-for-f-35s-so-aging-vinson-gets-the-call/), designed to pack amphibious ships with Marine Corps’ F-35Bs and sail them to the hotspots to cover places the big decks aren’t.
Late last year, the USS America photographed in the Pacific with 13 F-35s on its deck, something the services want to do more of as the so-called Gator Navy reinforces more decks to handle the fifth generation fighter. The Marines and Navy are working on a new strategy (https://breakingdefense.com/2019/10/commandant-marine-not-optimized-for-great-power-competition-or/) to more closely align their operations, which would allow both to provide more punch, and give the Marines the ability to launch from both ships and from small ad-hoc land bases to support the fleet.
Any potentially smaller carrier of the future will not be as small as an amphibious ship, as those ships can’t support high sortie rates over long periods of time like a Nimitz or Ford carrier. They would, however, certainly be smaller than the hulking Fords...........

They still fixated on manned aircraft where as the unmanned are a fraction of the cost. Services will want mega budgets even when they are unsustainable.

[SamYeager]

But sitting on bottom completely silent waiting for convoy was what Wolfpacks did 75 years ago, irrespective of escorts that were ahead. Why would that strategy change ?
Add in underwater drones etc etc and it becomes a bit more of a difficult exercise to protect shipping.

I believe you'll find the wolfpacks primarily operated on the surface up till mid 1943 as since they were faster than the convoy they had no problem keeping up with it. This continued until the widespread introduction of radar and air cover across the Atlantic forced them to submerge.

[racedo]

What is airlift capacity required for transferring a complete division from US to Europe ?
Yes I know it woukld be substantial but aircraft would be doing 14 flights a week V shipping.
.

Reading a piece today on M1 Abrams which indicated that during GW1 using C5 Galaxy that US transported tanks, 2 at a time to Saudi Arabia and did a maximum of 2000. However weight now is 20 % greater so this will reduce carrying capacity.

[GeeRam]

I believe you'll find the wolfpacks primarily operated on the surface up till mid 1943 as since they were faster than the convoy they had no problem keeping up with it. This continued until the widespread introduction of radar and air cover across the Atlantic forced them to submerge.

Yep. The most numerous type the Type VII were not true submersibles, in fact they were very agile boats on the surface, and could only go to a max depth of around 200-240m, and not for long periods either, so no way were they sitting silently on the bottom waiting for the convoys.

[Capt Kremmen]

Reading a piece today on M1 Abrams which indicated that during GW1 using C5 Galaxy that US transported tanks, 2 at a time to Saudi Arabia and did a maximum of 2000. However weight now is 20 % greater so this will reduce carrying capacity.


Submersible unmanned carriers carrying unmanned strike aircraft.

[SASless]

Any potentially smaller carrier of the future will not be as small as an amphibious ship, as those ships can’t support high sortie rates over long periods of time like a Nimitz or Ford carrier. They would, however, certainly be smaller than the hulking Fords...........

Sounds like they are talking about a couple on non-nuclear powered Aircraft Carriers designed for the F-35 and operated by a somewhat friendly nation.

[Chidken Sangwich]

Reading a piece today on M1 Abrams which indicated that during GW1 using C5 Galaxy that US transported tanks, 2 at a time to Saudi Arabia and did a maximum of 2000. However weight now is 20 % greater so this will reduce carrying capacity.

C5M upgrades add 20% to payload with new uprated engines so that should counter the above.

[racedo]

Submersible unmanned carriers carrying unmanned strike aircraft.

It is another option or aircraft (large drone) dropping drone swarms circa 100km from target and the drones having capacity to stay in the air for 24 hours or longer to attack if needed or large drone drops smaller drone which heads target and then 10km before target breaks further down into mega swarm.

[racedo]

C5M upgrades add 20% to payload with new uprated engines to that should counter the above.

Gets back to original question. A rough estimate of tonnage required to be shipped by air or sea for 10,000 personnel from US to Europe including all their equipment and ammunition / spares. Assumming can use current Military airlift capacity and whatever is required from Fedex / UPS etc.

[racedo]

Sounds like they are talking about a couple on non-nuclear powered Aircraft Carriers designed for the F-35 and operated by a somewhat friendly nation.

But are the not also major targets ?

Is this the old - Lets fight the new war on basis of old war, when an enemy is not wedded to this because it hasn't invested so heavily in it. Like Capital ships in WW1 / 2.

[SASless]

Racedo,

History proves that we do seem to fight the new War using the last War's equipment and strategy.

That certainly is not the wise way of doing it.....and what is worse we. have found no new ways to lose a way as efficiently as we have from Vietnam forward.

[Not_a_boffin]

Gets back to original question. A rough estimate of tonnage required to be shipped by air or sea for 10,000 personnel from US to Europe including all their equipment and ammunition / spares. Assumming can use current Military airlift capacity and whatever is required from Fedex / UPS etc.

It isn't just tonnage. There are area and volume limits and flying bulk ammo is also "interesting" in terms of load plans - for ships - and I would assume for aircraft as well. Vehicle transport tends to be measured in LIMS (Linear metres) which are the number of metres of a standard width (somewhere between 2 and 2.2 m if memory serves). There are outsize elements to that (mainly heavy armour which is weight limited and some vehicles / aircraft which are height limited) which need careful planning.

The attached paper, gives you some idea of the quantities of vehicles involved, but not any additional spares, ammo etc. There's a reason no-one in their right mind considers intercontinental large scale deployment by air. You'd probably only get one return sortie a day out of your airlifter, which for a fleet of 50 aircraft (of which you might have 40 available) is going to take a long time to move 5000 vehicles (broadly what's in that paper). You're also assuming the reason for doing so is that they're somehow more survivable.

http://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a264943.pdf

Trying to make an armoured force air-portable is how you end up with a comedy like FRES.....

[racedo]

Racedo,

History proves that we do seem to fight the new War using the last War's equipment and strategy.

That certainly is not the wise way of doing it.....and what is worse we. have found no new ways to lose a way as efficiently as we have from Vietnam forward.

True

The best way to win a war is to decide whether you should be fighting it first, FDR / IKE etc understood that with sole aim of overthrowing the Austrian Painters regime being the only focus.

Sadly everytime US gets involved there is a huge long list of what they want to achieve rather than a single aim, think it was Congressional Audit Office that looked at Afghanistan aims of this administration, there were pages and pages of them such that everybody could find something they supported, problem was it is great supporting it from Topeka but no one in Afghanistan knows or cares. This didn't even look at the private companies that sucking billions out of wars, if your company is making $50 million a year from a war then your house image and lifestyle will ensure you fund politicians who continue the war.

[sandiego89]

Sounds like the carriers could use a carrier based twin engine MPA/ASW aircraft with good endurance, good sensors and payload capability for these cross ocean sea control operations. Oh wait, the US Navy retired the S-3 Viking, that still had plenty of fatigue life left, went with helos for short range ASW, and abandoned any replacement aircraft to pay for more "fighters" for the land strike mission ........

[SASless]

The current edition of "Proceedings", published by the US Naval Institute, has several articles about interoperability of Allied Fleets and the need to be able to counter multiple nation threats rather than just the Russian Navy.

Some studies show the USN needs to have 355 ships....and can not reach that number until 2034 or so with new construction.

A companion article raises the concern that USN Cost Cutting Measures has focused upon Manpower cuts rather than other areas.

We saw a similar issue back during the Reagan/Lehman buildup when ships were built without adequate attention being paid to later years support and crewing demands.

[MightyGem]

Oh wait, the US Navy retired the S-3 Viking, that still had plenty of fatigue life left,
Nice to know that the UK isn't the only country to do things like that.

[megan]

Oh wait, the US Navy retired the S-3 Viking, that still had plenty of fatigue life leftAs at 2015 Eighty-seven S-3s are being kept in mothballs at Davis-Monthan

[Lonewolf_50]

Sounds like the carriers could use a carrier based twin engine MPA/ASW aircraft with good endurance, good sensors and payload capability for these cross ocean sea control operations. Oh wait, the US Navy retired the S-3 Viking, that still had plenty of fatigue life left, went with helos for short range ASW, and abandoned any replacement aircraft to pay for more "fighters" for the land strike mission ........ The roles and missions debate after the Gulf War of 1991, and the BRAC that followed, left a lot of stuff bleeding on the floor, the S-3 being only one of them. Rummy's aim to shrink the Navy before the decision to head into Iraq sealed the fate of some other systems ... but it took until 2008 to finally retire the T-2 Buckeye. back on topic ...
Ever since I was (in a very small corner of a large room) involved in some JSF (and then F-35) stuff, early 00's, and once I'd operated for real with Global Hawks, Predators, and a few other drones, it occurred to me that F-35 is the last manned fighter we'll ever need. The X-47B UCAV trials on a CV only underscores my feeling on that.
They'll start with unmanned tankers, or at least that's what they said last year. (https://news.usni.org/2019/05/22/navy-has-no-plans-develop-lethal-carrier-uav-before-mq-25a-hits-flight-decks)
It may take a few decades, but what I think will happen is that fewer and fewer manned aircraft will be flown or needed, and they'll operate in conjunction with unmanned aircraft from seaborne platforms. But that's gonna take a while to implement and flesh out.
How many carriers are needed, how big they are, and how many people to man them, is the next hard problemn to solve in the mid to long term.
Short term: necessary.
And when we do transition, we still have a whole family of large amphibs that may provide the deck and hangar space needed.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/04/20/defense-department-study-calls-for-cutting-2-of-the-us-navys-aircraft-carriers/

Defense Department study calls for cutting 2 of the US Navy’s aircraft carriers

WASHINGTON – An internal Office of the Secretary of Defense assessment calls for the Navy to cut two aircraft carriers (https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/06/with-china-gunning-for-aircraft-carriers-the-us-navy-says-it-must-change-the-way-it-fights/) from its fleet, freeze the large surface combatant fleet of destroyers and cruisers around current levels and add dozens of unmanned or lightly manned ships (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/surface-navy-association/2020/01/13/heres-5-things-you-should-know-about-the-us-navys-plans-for-big-autonomous-missile-boats/) to the inventory, according to documents obtained by Defense News.

The study calls for a fleet of nine carriers, down from the current fleet of 11, and for 65 unmanned or lightly manned surface vessels. The study calls for a surface force of between 80 and 90 large surface combatants, and an increase in the number of small surface combatants – between 55 and 70, which is substantially more than the Navy currently operates.

The assessment is part of an ongoing DoD-wide review of Navy force structure and seem to echo what Defense Secretary Mark Esper has been saying for months: the Defense Department wants to begin de-emphasizing aircraft carriers as the centerpiece of the Navy's force projection and put more emphasis on unmanned technologies that can be more easily sacrificed in a conflict and can achieve their missions more affordably.

A DoD spokesperson declined to comment on the force structure assessment. "We will not comment on a DoD product that is pre-decisional,” said Navy Capt. Brook DeWalt.........

The Navy is currently developing a family of unmanned surface vessels (https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/21/the-us-navy-gets-its-large-unmanned-surface-vessels-in-2020-with-strings-attached/) that are intended to increase the offensive punch for less money, while increasing the number of targets the Chinese military would have to locate in a fight. That’s a push that earned the endorsement of the Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday in comments late last year.

“I know that the future fleet has to include a mix of unmanned,” Gilday said. “We can’t continue to wrap $2 billion ships around 96 missile tubes in the numbers we need to fight in a distributed way, against a potential adversary that is producing capability and platforms at a very high rate of speed. We have to change the way we are thinking.”

[Asturias56]

They're probably going to finish up with around 9 anyway - the build-time of the Fords is getting towards 8-10 years and the cost of refurbing a Nimitz to keep it service for another 10+ years is likely to be stupendous

IIRC the original out of service date for the CVN-68 Nimitz was 2025 which reduced numbers planned in service to 10 anyway until about 2030.

[ORAC]

The Nimitz class has a service life of 50 years and they are refuelled and overhauled once at their midlife point if 25 years.

Nimitz is planned to be retired in 2022 and replaced by the first of the Ford class, U.S.S. Ford. Only 3 Ford class presently under contract. U.S.S. Ford, currently in sea trials; the U.S.S. JFK, just launched and crewed and being fitted out; and the U.S.S. Enterprise, under construction and due for delivery in 2025.

First carrier they are, currently, considering retiring at the midlife point is the USS Truman in 2024.

[falcon900]

Interesting to note that the Chinese have put at least one US carrier out of action without a shot being fired......

[Arclite01]

“I know that the future fleet has to include a mix of unmanned,” Gilday said. “We can’t continue to wrap $2 billion ships around 96 missile tubes in the numbers we need to fight in a distributed way, against a potential adversary that is producing capability and platforms at a very high rate of speed. We have to change the way we are thinking.”


Potential adversary being China ??

Arc

[Asturias56]

ORAC - I thought they'd contracted CVN-81 "Doris Miller" earlier this year?

With a mid life RCOH costing around $ 5 bn and taking at least 40 months extending the life of a Nimitz beyond 50 years is probably not worthwhile - but they're going to have to up the tempo on the "Fords" to get back to 11 ships IMHO

The carriers are very definitely a "nice to have" (if you can afford them) - but if they aren't going to play such a front-line role against China then maybe a reduction over time isn't the end of the world.

[Asturias56]

Potential adversary being China ??

Arc


Who else? The Russians aren't a big player right now and it's hard to see they'll ever get back to anything like their pre-1990 capabilities. They are getting some new kit but it's in tiny volumes cp the USSR days

[ORAC]

Well with the U.S.S. America charging off into the South China Sea in support of the Malaysian West Capella drillship in a stand-off against the Chinese, maybe they’ve decided the large carriers are too big to risk and somewhat of an unusable asset to risk in combat against a peer opponent?

[Asturias56]

Brave men to take on a bunch of oil field trash................ :E

[ORAC]

https://news.usni.org/2020/04/20/uss-america-now-steaming-near-south-china-sea-standoff

[meleagertoo]

Submersible unmanned carriers carrying unmanned strike aircraft.

Yes. They're called Ohio class.

[weemonkey]

I believe there was an exercise in last 15 years relying on a NATO convoy enforcement across the Atlantic which provided lots of learnings and none of them good.



But sitting on bottom completely silent waiting for convoy was what Wolfpacks did 75 years ago, irrespective of escorts that were ahead. Why would that strategy change ?
Add in underwater drones etc etc and it becomes a bit more of a difficult exercise to protect shipping.

What is airlift capacity required for transferring a complete division from US to Europe ?
Yes I know it woukld be substantial but aircraft would be doing 14 flights a week V shipping.



They still fixated on manned aircraft where as the unmanned are a fraction of the cost. Services will want mega budgets even when they are unsustainable.

Always the negatives....

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/310x163/images_4c4c2ae3ce10ff87785285b5a5df1f54b4ceb189.jpeg

[sandiego89]

Well with the U.S.S. America charging off into the South China Sea in support of the Malaysian West Capella drillship in a stand-off against the Chinese, maybe they’ve decided the large carriers are too big to risk and somewhat of an unusable asset to risk in combat against a peer opponent?

Or perhaps just a case of using a platform for its intended role? The AMERICA is an aviation heavy LHD, differing from the WASP class she is derived from. With larger spaces for aviation fuel and designed to support larger aviation elements including the F-35B (with the loss of the well deck and some vehicle storage).

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/06/01/us-navy-upgrades-more-ships-for-the-f-35-as-the-future-of-carriers-remains-in-flux/

US Navy upgrades more ships for the F-35 as the future of carriers remains in flux

[Asturias56]

Certainly makes sense - relatively small investment to multiply your options

An LHD with half a dozen F-35Bs would be powerful enough to intervene in a lot of places without sending an expensive CVN

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/2020/06/15/with-the-future-us-navys-carrier-air-wing-murky-congress-demands-a-plan/

With the future of the US Navy’s carrier air wing murky, Congress demands a plan

WASHINGTON – The US Navy will need to develop a roadmap for developing future fighter aircraft years after it became apparent that the Navy’s mainstay F/A-18 Super Hornet (https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/07/27/the-us-navys-fighter-woes-are-boosting-boeings-bottom-line/)would struggle to keep the carrier outside of range to be effective against Chinese anti-ship missiles (https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/06/with-china-gunning-for-aircraft-carriers-the-us-navy-says-it-must-change-the-way-it-fights/)......

The SASC mark “requires the Navy to create a fighter aircraft force structure acquisition strategy and report on aircraft carrier air wing composition and carrier-based strike fighter squadrons to better prepare for potential conflicts envisioned by the National Defense Strategy,” according to a summary posted on the Committee’s website (https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/FY%2021%20NDAA%20Summary.pdf).

The Navy likely upset the congressional apple cart by zeroing out a planned buy of at least 36 Super (https://www.defensenews.com/air/2020/06/01/at-a-budgetary-crossroads-the-us-navys-aviation-wing-must-choose-between-old-and-new/) Hornets that would have spanned FY22 through FY24. That move that should save $4.5 billion that the service plans to redirect to its sixth-generation fighter program, known as Next Generation Air Dominance or F/A-XX.........

[Asturias56]

" the service plans to redirect to its sixth-generation fighter program, known as Next Generation Air Dominance or F/A-XX"

ORAC - any idea when this next WonderPlane is scheduled for service?

[ORAC]

The point is they're not - they want to cut the money for the F-18s without actually having a program in place to replace them - which is what Congress is complaining about. The last Naval Secretary said they wouldn't build a new manned fighter after the F-35.

https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-cuts-super-hornet-production-to-develop-next-generation-fighter

[Lonewolf_50]

The last Naval Secretary said they wouldn't build a new manned fighter after the F-35. https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-cuts-super-hornet-production-to-develop-next-generation-fighter A position that I have held for over a decade, that F-35 would be our last manned fighter, seems to have become policy. Fair point on the trade offs ORAC, but not every use of the Navy will be with China. Perhaps F-18 E/Fs will be phased into Reserve Squadrons ... not every mission requires stealth, right?

[Asturias56]

The point is they're not - they want to cut the money for the F-18s without actually having a program in place to replace them - which is what Congress is complaining about. The last Naval Secretary said they wouldn't build a new manned fighter after the F-35.

https://news.usni.org/2020/02/10/navy-cuts-super-hornet-production-to-develop-next-generation-fighter
oh................... :eek:

[ORAC]

F/A-XX Office......

https://news.usni.org/2020/08/18/navy-quietly-starts-development-of-next-generation-carrier-fighter-plans-call-for-manned-long-range-aircraft

Navy Quietly Starts Development of Next-Generation Carrier Fighter; Plans Call for Manned, Long-Range Aircraft

After nearly a decade of fits and starts, the Navy has quietly initiated work to develop its first new carrier-based fighter in almost 20 years, standing up a new program office and holding early discussions with industry, USNI News has learned.

The multi-billion-dollar effort to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and electronic attack EA-18G Growlers beginning in the 2030s is taking early steps to quickly develop a new manned fighter to extend the reach of the carrier air wing and bring new relevance to the Navy’s fleet of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers......

To kick off the NGAD initiative, the Navy formally stood up the Next Generation Air Dominance program office, which the service is calling PMA-230, in May and tapped Capt. Al Mousseau to serve as the program manager. Mousseau officially started the job in May, after previously serving as the program manager for the Mission Integration and Special Programs Office, also known as PMA-298.

The Navy has already begun convening industry days for NGAD, according to a source familiar with the ongoing process. Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are the three likely competitors for the manned fighter, USNI News understands......

[Asturias56]

" steps to quickly develop " and " beginning in the 2030s" don't seem to be off the same page

It would eb interesting to find out just how fast you COULD get a decent new fighter designed and built if you adopted the J V Stalin style of management say..............

[West Coast]

" steps to quickly develop " and " beginning in the 2030s" don't seem to be off the same page

It would eb interesting to find out just how fast you COULD get a decent new fighter designed and built if you adopted the J V Stalin style of management say..............

Probably quite quickly if your life depended on having the aircraft flying by a particular date. Would you be doing the warfighter any favors by using a calendar rather than proper testing to determine when a new airframe and new avionics are ready, that a big negative ghostrider.

[dead_pan]

Probably quite quickly if your life depended on having the aircraft flying by a particular date. Would you be doing the warfighter any favors by using a calendar rather than proper testing to determine when a new airframe and new avionics are ready, that a big negative ghostrider.

Even quicker if you pinch critical technologies off your opponents, them having done all the investment and legwork.

[Harley Quinn]

Has anyone actually issued a specification or RFPs yet? Until then timescales are no more than than a finger in the wind.

[etudiant]

Absent a much better new engine, which is currently at best in the research and development stage, it is hard to see how much more capable this aircraft could be.Yet there is no engine maker mentioned.

[ORAC]

Etudiant - AETP program now in the design/hardware stage with GE and P&W

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pratt_%26_Whitney_XA101

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/03/01/detailed-design-complete-for-ges-revolutionary-adaptive-cycle-fighter-engine/

[Not_a_boffin]

Biggest issue likely to be debate over weapon system - or more precisely, future weapon system.

Because it'll be a clean sheet airframe with likely long range / ToS, there shouldn't be the same compromises forced on SuperBug or F35C. As long as you're at or below the spot factor of an F14 it'll be fine.

What is likely to cause extended debate / argument is what provision (space, weight and electrical power) is made for anything exotic weapons wise, given likely service out to 2060.

[ORAC]

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/budget-shows-flightworthy-sixth-generation-fighter-engines

Budget Shows Flightworthy Sixth-Generation Fighter Engines Ready By 2025

Details of the first of two mostly secret initiatives to support the U.S. Air Force’s five-year-old pursuit of a sixth-generation successor to the Lockheed Martin F-22 are now released and reveal that a critical technology for the Next-Generation Air Dominance program could become flightworthy by mid-2025.

GE Aviation and Pratt & Whitney are scheduled to complete separate competitive designs for a Next-Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) system by the second quarter of 2022 and finish assessments on a full-scale engine three years later, according to Air Force budget documents........

In fact, the NGAP program reappeared in the fiscal 2021 budget documents for the first time in more than six years. The Air Force has kept all details about the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program highly secret since 2016, but there was a brief, two-year window in 2014-15 when senior defense officials provided information about the underlying technology development efforts.

The NGAP was first referenced in testimony by Alan Shaffer before House Armed Services Committee in March 2014. Shaffer is now the deputy to Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. Six years ago, he was the principal deputy to the director for research and engineering. In that role, Shaffer introduced the NGAP as an enabler to the NGAD program, along with another, complementary initiative focused on new airframes. “This program will develop and fly two X-plane prototypes that demonstrate advanced technologies for future aircraft,” Shaffer said in 2014. “Teams will compete to produce the X-plane prototypes, one focused on future Navy operational capabilities, and the other on future Air Force operational capabilities.”

A year later, Frank Kendall, then undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, elaborated on the Aerospace Innovation Initiative (AII). The development of the X-planes would be led by DARPA, he said. “To be competitive, the Navy and the Air Force each will have variants focused on their mission requirements,” Kendall said. “There will be a technology period leading up to development of the prototypes. This will lead to the systems that ultimately will come after the F-35.”

The results of the AII program have not been released or even acknowledged by Air Force or defense officials since 2015, but the initiative suggests that one or two X-plane aircraft could be in testing now.......

[Asturias56]

" finish assessments on a full-scale engine three years later, " - I read that as 2 options- 1 is they will be finished BUILDING AND ASSESSING a full scale engine by 2025 ORi n 2025 they will finish three years of pushing paper around about building possible full scale engine

Which is most likely?

[ORAC]

I read that as 2 options- 1 is they will be finished BUILDING AND ASSESSING a full scale engine by 2025 ORi n 2025 they will finish three years of pushing paper around about building possible full scale engine Which is most likely?
apparently the first, as deliverables include both hardware and test rig data....

...”Funding for the NGAD and NGAP programs is accounted for separately in Air Force budget documents. The fiscal 2021 budget justification documents reveal that the Air Force spent $106 million for the NGAP in fiscal 2019. Another $224 million is allocated to the NGAP this year. But the program has requested an additional $403 million in fiscal 2021, the budget documents show.“The Next-Generation Adaptive Propulsion effort consists of four phases: preliminary design, detailed design, engine fabrication and engine assessments,” the Air Force’s budget documents state.

“Program deliverables include military adaptive engine detailed design parameters and models, engine hardware (plus spare parts), matured technologies, major rig assessment data (controls, combustor, etc.), program reviews, and technology, affordability and sustainability studies for next generation fighter aircraft,” the documents add......”

[ORAC]

https://news.usni.org/2020/10/06/secdef-esper-calls-for-500-ship-fleet-by-2045-with-3-ssns-a-year-and-light-carriers-supplementing-cvns

SECDEF Esper Calls for 500-Ship Fleet by 2045, With 3 SSNs a Year and Light Carriers Supplementing CVNs

Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced a new future fleet plan for the Navy that would grow the attack submarine force, supplement nuclear-powered aircraft carriers with light carriers to achieve greater day-to-day presence, and invest heavily in small and unmanned ships for distributed operations.......

Second, Esper stated that nuclear-powered aircraft carriers would remain the most visible deterrence on the seas, but he said a new future air wing would have to be developed to increase their range and lethality, and that light carriers would have to supplement the Nimitz- and Ford-class supercarriers to help achieve greater day-to-day presence while preserving limited CVN readiness, which has been strained recently by overuse and backups at maintenance yards.

Up to six light carriers, possibly based on the America-class amphibious assault ship design, would operate both instead of and alongside the CVNs.

“While we anticipate that additional study will be required to assess the proper high/low mix of carriers, eight to 11 nuclear-powered carriers will be necessary to execute a high-end conflict and maintain our global presence, with up to six light carriers joining them,” Esper said in his remarks......

Sixth, he said, the Navy would need unmanned aircraft launching off carrier decks to cover all the missions of today’s air wing: fighters, refueling, early warning and electronic attack. He alluded this recently while speaking to sailors aboard USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), USNI News previously reported (https://news.usni.org/2020/09/18/esper-unmanned-vessels-will-allow-the-navy-to-reach-355-ship-fleet)........

On demand, Esper acknowledged that the Navy has been strained to keep up with demands for presence in U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, U.S. Central Command and U.S. European Command.......

Esper said NDS calls for INDOPACOM to be prioritized, and other COCOM requests to be scaled down so more forces can be sent to the Pacific or sent back home to rebuild readiness. It’s unclear when that will start happening for the Navy or what that will look like........

[Asturias56]

I don't have any problems with the plans but isn't building the fleet up going to need a major investment in the construction yards? I'm sure I read inteh last year that production of several classes are really constrained by the building facilities

[Lonewolf_50]

I don't have any problems with the plans but isn't building the fleet up going to need a major investment in the construction yards? I'm sure I read inteh last year that production of several classes are really constrained by the building facilities Esper's idea on larger and smaller carriers is a good idea, and I think with an increas in unmanned flying vehicles it may be achievable. But that build rate requires serious plus ups to the infrastructure. (as you noted).

It's not just that, it's also the manpower bill to be paid that will probably make this dream of 545 ships fall short. You have to recruit them and then keep them sailors and junior officers, so that they become mid grade petty officers and officers and finally chief petty officers and senior officers to fill all of those currently non-existent billets.

One of the little known details in a previous Sec Nav (James Webb) initiative to pursue the Cold War objective of a 600 ship navy, was that the Manpower people never came up with a number that said "this is how we can support this" at a time when President Reagan was throwing money at the DoD and we dreamed of a 15 CVN Navy (from which the 600 ship number was derived)

That 600 ships never happened.

Ships have gotten significantly more expensive and we should note the 15 year time horizon. That's two or three presidents worth, with varying motivations to increase, flatline, or decrease Defense Spending.
I recall that the F-22 had a number ... that got cut.
The C-17 had a number .. that got cut.
The B-2 had a number ... that got cut.
IIRC the Zumwalt class had a number ... that got cut.
One of our recent submarine programs fared similarly. (I'd need to check back on some old newes, the name of the class escapes me)

Though I tend to favor things "pilot" I agree with plussing up the submarine force (though those manpower billets are some of the most expensive), and pushing for an increase. .
To expect that the political and funding momentum to achieve that 15 year build plan will be sustained?
I'll have some of what Secretary Esper is smoking.
Politics isn't that easy, and the House of Representatives hold the purse strings.
That's where funding comes from for ship building programs (and the associated aircraft building programs) like this (proposed) one.

[etudiant]

Esper's idea on larger and smaller carriers is a good idea, and I think with an increas in unmanned flying vehicles it may be achievable. But that build rate requires serious plus ups to the infrastructure. (as you noted).

It's not just that, it's also the manpower bill to be paid that will probably make this dream of 545 ships fall short. You have to recruit them and then keep them sailors and junior officers, so that they become mid grade petty officers and officers and finally chief petty officers and senior officers to fill all of those currently non-existent billets.

One of the little known details in a previous Sec Nav (James Webb) initiative to pursue the Cold War objective of a 600 ship navy, was that the Manpower people never came up with a number that said "this is how we can support this" at a time when President Reagan was throwing money at the DoD and we dreamed of a 15 CVN Navy (from which the 600 ship number was derived)

That 600 ships never happened.

Ships have gotten significantly more expensive and we should note the 15 year time horizon. That's two or three presidents worth, with varying motivations to increase, flatline, or decrease Defense Spending.
I recall that the F-22 had a number ... that got cut.
The C-17 had a number .. that got cut.
The B-2 had a number ... that got cut.
IIRC the Zumwalt class had a number ... that got cut.
One of our recent submarine programs fared similarly. (I'd need to check back on some old newes, the name of the class escapes me)

Though I tend to favor things "pilot" I agree with plussing up the submarine force (though those manpower billets are some of the most expensive), and pushing for an increase. .
To expect that the political and funding momentum to achieve that 15 year build plan will be sustained?
I'll have some of what Secretary Esper is smoking.
Politics isn't that easy, and the House of Representatives hold the purse strings.
That's where funding comes from for ship building programs (and the associated aircraft building programs) like this (proposed) one.

Reading the text, what leaps out apart from the 500 ship hopium number, is the first indication of a formal reduction in large carriers to 8. Sure it is couched as 8-11 plus 6 smaller new carriers,but afaik this is the real message.
Maintaining a forward presence with 8 carriers means leaving one or more theaters, perhaps starting with the Med.

[ORAC]

It's not just that, it's also the manpower bill to be paid that will probably make this dream of 545 ships fall short. You have to recruit them and then keep them sailors and junior officers, so that they become mid grade petty officers and officers and finally chief petty officers and senior officers to fill all of those currently non-existent billets. Read the rest of the article - its a major push to unmanned, or minimally manned, naval combat units.....

.......Third, Esper called for between 140 and 240 unmanned and optionally manned ships on the surface and under the sea, conducting missions ranging from laying mines, conducting missile strikes, resupplying manned ships, surveillance, serving as decoys and more.“They will add significant offensive and defensive capabilities to the fleet at an affordable cost in terms of both sailors and dollars,” he said.

“Earlier this month, the Sea Hunter prototype completed operations with the USS Russell, demonstrating that unmanned surface vehicles are technologically feasible and operationally valuable.”

[Arcanum]

One of our recent submarine programs fared similarly. (I'd need to check back on some old newes, the name of the class escapes me)

Seawolf? 29 cut to 3.

[racedo]

The limiting factor on manned aircraft is the G Force the human is capable of withstanding, (yeah I know "No Sh*t Sherlock").

What is the fesability of a human compartment that operates at a different g level to the rest of the aircraft ?. The G force of the machinery then becomes the limiting factor not the person inside, without the need for expensive suits.

[Asturias56]

"I recall that the F-22 had a number ... that got cut.
The C-17 had a number .. that got cut.
The B-2 had a number ... that got cut.
IIRC the Zumwalt class had a number ... that got cut.
One of our recent submarine programs fared similarly."

All of these programs suffered from enormous cost inflation - much of it due to the desire to go to the absolute cutting edge of technology on several fronts at the same time (the Zumwalts are typical). Sometimes you need a program like the F-16 - low risk and relatively cheap that you can deploy quickly in numbers.

Interesting that Esper mentions "increased range" which is of course an issue with the F-35 - but then why have the USN not built on the MQ-25 technology immediately for strike purposes? Kicking the can down the road seems to a classic case of vested interests in the manned fighter community

[SLXOwft]

I know I may be stating the obvious but isn't all this just speculation if the polls are right about the result of November 3's voting.

Joe Biden has stated he doesn’t foresee major reductions in the U.S. defence/defense budget but (shades of Dominic Cummings in the UK) priorities may change:

“We have to focus more on unmanned capacity, cyber and IT, in a very modern world that is changing rapidly,” Biden said. “I’ve met with a number of my advisors and some have suggested in certain areas the budget is going to have to be increased.”
Source: DefenseNews September 11, 2020


Although that may align with (as posted by ORAC):

Sixth, he (Secretary of Defense Mark Esper) said, the Navy would need unmanned aircraft launching off carrier decks to cover all the missions of today’s air wing: fighters, refueling, early warning and electronic attack. He alluded this recently while speaking to sailors aboard USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), USNI News previously reported (https://news.usni.org/2020/09/18/esper-unmanned-vessels-will-allow-the-navy-to-reach-355-ship-fleet)........