Is the hiring boom over?

[Mrpeewee]

2016-2018 - plenty for low hour guys
2019 - slowed down
2020 - Cockpits full?

What are your thoughts?

Peewee

[PilotTrainingUK]

There’s still quite a few opportunities for low hour pilots - RYR recently reopened recruitment, Jet2 pilot apprenticeship & Flybe to name a few.

[ced0802]

Let s hope it will pick up again 🤞

[Ronaldsway Radar]

I know people (low hours) who within the past 6 months have been hired at:

Jet2
Titan
Flybe
Stobart
Loganair
FlyWales
Dragonfly

So yes absolutely there are still opportunities out there for low hour pilots, however I'd say that the numbers are obviously a lot lower than previous.

[Richard Kenneth Reed]

EasyJet are recruiting 1000 new pilots over the next 5 years through CAE.

[r10bbr]

the Integrated students have preference over modular guys applying thru CAE

[Richard Kenneth Reed]

the Integrated students have preference over modular guys applying thru CAE
Sorry just to be clear are you saying the MPL students who are doing the integrated course have preference or the ATPL white tail students have preference over someone who is on a modular course?

[Rottweiler22]

Sorry just to be clear are you saying the MPL students who are doing the integrated course have preference or the ATPL white tail students have preference over someone who is on a modular course?

There used to be a pecking order. The most lucrative students get the most attention, and down the ladder it goes.

The MPL students were the top (self-sponsored MPL with the orange airline). They got the lion’s share of attention and resources. It was no holds barred to get these people finished on time.

This was followed by the fully-sponsored Middle-Eastern cadets (the Middle Eastern airlines know their cadets struggle with training, so they give very generous time frames to complete their training).

Then followed by the “tagged” ATPL cadets (on a self-funded ATPL course but have passed an airline selection prior to starting, have a conditional job offer, and wear an airline lanyard).

Then the ordinary self-sponsored integrated ATPL students. During the flying stage it was very common for you to be removed from scheduled flights at a day’s notice, and your flight given to one of the above “higher priority” students. The same with losing your instructor, aircraft, etc, to the above folk. Horrifically frustrating when you’re already months behind schedule as it is and you keep getting leapfrogged.

The bottom of the bottom are the modulars. Even the self-sponsored integrated ATPL lot get it better than them. But, they pay the least money, so that’s what it’s all about.

But for the jobs at the end, a few times a year airlines will recruit through the school. This can be as many as 6 in a year, to as little as none. The orange airline used to come in around twice per year to recruit (and take a dozen or so self-sponsored folk who weren’t already tagged). These tend to be schemes with expensive self-sponsored type ratings (£38k for EZY, etc), as the respective school also provides and sells you the type rating.

But yes, the integrated students got first dibs, and if they couldn’t get enough interest for the particular selection then they’d invited the modulars. (And even if you do apply to and get a job outside of they school’s schemes and off your own back, the school will still take credit and use you as a statistic and advertise that X amount of students went to Y airline.

Back to topic, yes, it is a bit ropey for new pilots looking for first jobs at the moment. Thomas Cook was a big hit to the UK market, as 600 experienced Airbus drivers were suddenly in it. Ryanair closing recruitment late summer didn’t help either (4 out of 5 of my flight school mates went to Ryanair). It goes in peaks and troughs, and I would say it’s half way down one. EZY will always recruit, but they do it primarily through the big schools where it’s lucrative to all involved. Jet2, TUI and BA tend to want experience (barring apprentice scheme). Wizz and Lauda will need base moves to Europe. flyBe and Eastern are recruiting, but as far as I know Loganair aren’t.

[Ronaldsway Radar]

Loganair are recruiting at the moment. They have an assessment day in Dundee this week, and have made offers to a handful of NTR low hour people last month. Some of whom were modular guys.

[gordonquinn]

Loganair are recruiting at the moment. They have an assessment day in Dundee this week, and have made offers to a handful of NTR low hour people last month. Some of whom were modular guys.

Hope this keeps up, I've just started ATPLs and Loganair is my dream job. Guessing they are hiring for their new ATRs?

[Wertytg]

Loganair are recruiting at the moment. They have an assessment day in Dundee this week, and have made offers to a handful of NTR low hour people last month. Some of whom were modular guys.

Do you know the noticed period ? I've sent an email on monday and received the confirmation on tuesday by HR and told me it will be reviewed in due course, do you know how much time it could be? as they won't contact me if is unsuccessfull
Thanks!

[PilotRoger]

All the low cost are recruiting, big focus on their MPL/academy programs. It might get more difficult for old chaps for sure, due the vast number of fresh grads coming through. Commander recruitment might slow down thought, most airlines are focusing to upgrade their SFOs than external placements, that's the trend.
Well, RYR will need a bunch when the max comes back, i would say the same will be with Norwegian and other with orders in line. WZZ is having their expansion to Abu Dhabi, so there you go a bunch more.

[Rottweiler22]

All the low cost are recruiting, big focus on their MPL/academy programs. It might get more difficult for old chaps for sure, due the vast number of fresh grads coming through. Commander recruitment might slow down thought, most airlines are focusing to upgrade their SFOs than external placements, that's the trend.
Well, RYR will need a bunch when the max comes back, i would say the same will be with Norwegian and other with orders in line. WZZ is having their expansion to Abu Dhabi, so there you go a bunch more.

DEC recruitment is always a controversial issue, as it often leapfrog’s SFOs and FOs who’ve paid their dues and been in the firm longer. It does cause a lot of grief and in-fighting. EZY and RYR tend to be quite similar; cadets fill the right seat, who eventually move to the left seat, and DECs plug the gaps. I agree that as an FO you have much more flexibility in the job market (or even more so a Captain willing to go RHS).

It’s good Loganair are recruiting again. They definitely stopped at a point because they made a load of Embraer pilots redundant late last year. Take Loganair over flyBe any day of the week, with the state they’re in.

[Meester proach]

All the low cost are recruiting, big focus on their MPL/academy programs. It might get more difficult for old chaps for sure, due the vast number of fresh grads coming through. Commander recruitment might slow down thought, most airlines are focusing to upgrade their SFOs than external placements, that's the trend.
Well, RYR will need a bunch when the max comes back, i would say the same will be with Norwegian and other with orders in line. WZZ is having their expansion to Abu Dhabi, so there you go a bunch more.

i doubt it, especially with Norwegian, as base closures of both short and long haul have caused a surplus of pilots , even if the MAX returns.

[wiggy]

From Rumours and News

https://www.businessinsider.com/iata-airlines-warn-coronavirus-recession-shrink-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

[Banana Joe]

I don't think the virus outbreak is going to affect Europe a lot unless it becomes as critical as in Asia. The main problems in Europe are caused by fuel price and the MAX grounding. Once the MAX returns to service I expect airlines will need pilots to operate flights on intra-European and transatlantic routes.
Norwegian cash flow issues seem to have come to a stop after their restructuring but they need the MAX and RR issues to be fixed for good.

[wiggy]

IMVHO even if the outbreak doesn’t arrive in Europe the european pilot market could still be effected by this...

A lot will depend on how quickly the Chinese market recovers it’s appetite for expat pilots....

Time will tell....

[Chris the Robot]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/24/airline-shares-crash-coronavirus-fears/

Considering the above, I don't think it is a great idea to start commercial training now. It just goes to show how important it is to have a Plan B when trying to start a flying career since the outlook for the industry can change so quickly.

Hopefully, the virus will be contained and/or some sort of medication will be able to limit the effect it has, though it looks like Europe is going to be affected more than previously thought.

[wiggy]

“Non paywall” analysis here:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2020/feb/24/easyjets-tumble-marks-the-moment-when-investors-collided-with-reality

If there is a “dip” in demand for air travel (and it’s getting harder to believe there won’t be, even in Europe) then hopefully it will be short lived.

[Rottweiler22]

FlyBe going bust (which seems to be looking increasingly likely) would put another 600 pilots just on the UK market. The coffin would be nailed shut in the UK for finding an airline job, probably for the next couple of years.

If this Coronavirus gets much worse, it comes with it a downturn in air travel, and then the possibility of airlines closing recruitment, redundancies, or even the weaker airlines being unable to keep heads above water and going under. That’s another few hundred experienced guys on the EU market.

This is worse case scenario, and if it were to happen I imagine the effect would be much more mild. Still, I reckon the flyBe issue will the biggest factor in determining the amount of jobs going. Especially how it could be another 600 pilots on the market just months after Thomas Cook’s 600.

I wouldn’t put anyone off beginning their training at the moment (although it’s a bit dodgy now, the market can be a different kettle of fish in 2 years). But, as mentioned by someone else, a plan B is vital. A job you can pay your way with in the event of not finding an airline job, or whilst looking for one. Simply going straight from school into fight training is a big risk, with no skills to fall back on. Definitely not worth the risk remortgaging your parent’s house over.

[Richard Kenneth Reed]

FlyBe going bust (which seems to be looking increasingly likely) would put another 600 pilots just on the UK market. The coffin would be nailed shut in the UK for finding an airline job, probably for the next couple of years.

If this Coronavirus gets much worse, it comes with it a downturn in air travel, and then the possibility of airlines closing recruitment, redundancies, or even the weaker airlines being unable to keep heads above water and going under. That’s another few hundred experienced guys on the EU market.

This is worse case scenario, and if it were to happen I imagine the effect would be much more mild. Still, I reckon the flyBe issue will the biggest factor in determining the amount of jobs going. Especially how it could be another 600 pilots on the market just months after Thomas Cook’s 600.

I wouldn’t put anyone off beginning their training at the moment (although it’s a bit dodgy now, the market can be a different kettle of fish in 2 years). But, as mentioned by someone else, a plan B is vital. A job you can pay your way with in the event of not finding an airline job, or whilst looking for one. Simply going straight from school into fight training is a big risk, with no skills to fall back on. Definitely not worth the risk remortgaging your parent’s house over.

Good advice. Worth noting that these collapses (Thomas Cook, maybe Flybe) are not as much as a threat to new cadets as they first seem. Reason being is that firstly cadets are cheaper than employing experienced pilots. More importantly though is that a lot of these collapses result in other airlines getting hold of new routes and so their capacity will increase albeit not immediately.

Short term it's testing times in the industry - medium to long term - who knows - proceed with caution i suppose.

[Rottweiler22]

Good advice. Worth noting that these collapses (Thomas Cook, maybe Flybe) are not as much as a threat to new cadets as they first seem. Reason being is that firstly cadets are cheaper than employing experienced pilots. More importantly though is that a lot of these collapses result in other airlines getting hold of new routes and so their capacity will increase albeit not immediately.

Short term it's testing times in the industry - medium to long term - who knows - proceed with caution i suppose.

Fair point. I know it was mentioned somewhere that EZY didn’t take a single ex Thomas Cook pilot. Yet, the cadet schemes were still going strong. The cadet schemes are lucrative for all involved, so they will keep ticking over. Still, another 600 pilots on the market is no good for anyone (perhaps except airlines who use it as an excuse to lower Ts&Cs).

My old airline went bust within hours. Not one
person saw it coming. It was mental. So believe me mate, anything can happen, at any time. There’s
no such thing as “unbelievable” in this game.

[Chris the Robot]

What do BALPA do when an airline goes bankrupt, do they try and negotiate with other airlines to help the redundant pilots get taken on elsewhere?

As for cadets being prioritised, it's in the interest of the airlines for the pilot market to be as flooded as possible, as has been seen in the US, when there is a shortage, the T&Cs on offer can go through the roof. In my view, it's up to BALPA and indeed, other unions abroad, to try and put a stop or some sort of limit on the seemingly endless supply being run through the flying schools.

[G SXTY]

At a Pprune wannabe seminar many years ago, an airline DFO gave a presentation about the job market for low-hours pilots.

He started by drawing a graph of pilots jobs over time, and noted the way the job market tends to build steadily for several years, before an ‘event’ precipitates a cliff-edge collapse. His observation was that the market tends to follow a (roughly) 10 year cycle, with the bottom falling out in 1990 (1st Gulf War), 2001 (9/11 terrorist attacks) and 2008 (the financial crash).

It’s now 2020 . . .

I would give some thought to that, particularly if I was considering starting an integrated course.

[Chief Willy]

Rumours of cadets on various UK airline schemes being delayed start dates. I’d be very wary of starting any training course now. Things are rapidly slowing and may well reverse if airlines go bust. If you are in training now do all you can to suspend/slow down your training. This industry can get very ugly very quick.

[Daddy Fantastic]

At a Pprune wannabe seminar many years ago, an airline DFO gave a presentation about the job market for low-hours pilots.

He started by drawing a graph of pilots jobs over time, and noted the way the job market tends to build steadily for several years, before an ‘event’ precipitates a cliff-edge collapse. His observation was that the market tends to follow a (roughly) 10 year cycle, with the bottom falling out in 1990 (1st Gulf War), 2001 (9/11 terrorist attacks) and 2008 (the financial crash).

It’s now 2020 . . .

I would give some thought to that, particularly if I was considering starting an integrated course.

Well the European market has been rubbish for about 12 years now anyway since about 2008 so Its not like the US market which is booming and could go completely bust. The last few years in Europe have been okay but nothing spectacular when compared to the rest of the world, especially North America and Asia. I have been flying in the US and Europe and European aviation can only be described as depressing when comparing the 2 markets

The COV-19 virus certainly has not helped things but unless we have another 2008 GFC where the markets were decimated I dont think it will get too bad here. It may slow down but in 2009/10/11/12/13 it came to a grinding halt.

If you really want to be a pilot then it could be a good time in Europe because it is a bit slow and if the glory days of 2003-2007/8 ever return it will only be in a few years from now.

[kingairplane]

What boom ? Salaries are still low for FO, paid like a secretary to be an airline pilot , everyone should leave the industry

[Sorath]

Well the European market has been rubbish for about 12 years now anyway since about 2008 so Its not like the US market which is booming and could go completely bust. The last few years in Europe have been okay but nothing spectacular when compared to the rest of the world, especially North America and Asia. I have been flying in the US and Europe and European aviation can only be described as depressing when comparing the 2 markets

The COV-19 virus certainly has not helped things but unless we have another 2008 GFC where the markets were decimated I dont think it will get too bad here. It may slow down but in 2009/10/11/12/13 it came to a grinding halt.

If you really want to be a pilot then it could be a good time in Europe because it is a bit slow and if the glory days of 2003-2007/8 ever return it will only be in a few years from now.
God I hope you are right... Starting in April in Madrid my ATPL

[Chris the Robot]

I don't suppose many of the heavily delayed white-tail trainees on certain integrated courses will be best pleased by this. Had their training been run to schedule, they'd have qualified during a much better time for airline recruitment.

[Buenas]

Everybody starting a MPL or ATPL at this moment with borrowed money (loan) from the bank is MAD !!!! Sorry to say but you need to be realistic.

[Banana Joe]

Mad? A training takes on average 2 years. Everything could happen in 2 years. We might either have a massive recession or another hiring boom in 2 years. It is unpredictable.

But I strongly advise to go modular and keep your actual job.

[Sorath]

Mad? A training takes on average 2 years. Everything could happen in 2 years. We might either have a massive recession or another hiring boom in 2 years. It is unpredictable.
But I strongly advise to go modular and keep your actual job.

Wise words. I will stop working for my ATPL theoryy period, aprox 10 months, and resume working after that while I finish my flight training and flight examinations. ... after that, I guess it will be just applying to anything open at the time and maintaining my licence as current as possible by my own means.

[Buenas]

BJ, it's just my opinion, I realize many young people don't know how much 125 k is and how difficult it is to save let alone pay back with interest..

I used mad as in using your parent's house as a security on a 125 k loan. Even in good times is something mad to do, imagine now with hundreds of experienced pilots on the market....

But, If you have it on the account and want to take the risk ... do it by all means...

[Sorath]

BJ, it's just my opinion, I realize many young people don't know how much 125 k is and how difficult it is to save let alone pay back with interest..
I used mad as in using your parent's house as a security on a 125 k loan. Even in good times is something mad to do, imagine now with hundreds of experienced pilots on the market....
But, If you have it on the account and want to take the risk ... do it by all means...

I absolutely have to get a loan... 70K to be exact (not accounting for TR expenses)... but It's all or nothing. I don't want to die without saying I tried... There is always time to NOT pay the bank, in the case of a worst worst case scenario.

[Banana Joe]

I am working already. I am just going to suggest what I did: modular and spend less than half of the amount you mention.

[covec]

With today’s appalling news re Flybe...maybe the UK boom is over.

Loganair are not recruiting, neither is Eastern. Hunkering down time.

[giggitygiggity]

Well the European market has been rubbish for about 12 years now anyway since about 2008...

That's perhaps a bit overstated! IThe real game is when exactly to train if you're determined to do it.

I graduated uni in July 2008 straight into an frankly awful recession. I had planned to go and do flight training almost immediately, initially with the RAF but that dried up and then with CTC etc. It was obvious that it wasn't the time to do it so held off. I applied to CTC 2 years later, so mid summer 2010 and got offered a course October 2010 and managed to get them to delay me until spring 2011 guessing that things might be better when I completed due to a further 6 months, also had a decent job by then that I could easily return to. My course all had a mini-panic for the double dip recession worries in 2011, but fortunately that all blew over.

Finished it all late 2012 and waited 3 weeks before easyJet took most of my course with a start date 3 days after the phone call! I did my command in 2018 in less than 5 years from joining.

I know I was lucky but I can't see how you couldn't call that a boom and call it 'rubbish' instead. We were the first course to graduate and be in jobs in less than 3 months since before the recession. That boom took nearly 5 years to hit after the preceding recession. Bottom line, beware at the moment. Gut feeling is that aviation is about to have a big readjustment.

[rudestuff]

Anyone in their right mind would go modular in this environment. If people stop training - great. That means there will at some point be a shortage again, it's just a matter of waiting it out. The safest thing is to keep your job, get a PPL, reassess your finances. Do some hour building and start your ATPLs. If you spread out it, that'll give you 4½ years from the first exam to ATPL expiry. You'll only have spent £20k and you'll have £20k left to spend on the CPL/IR, but only when you're more confident of the market.

[Buenas]

I absolutely have to get a loan... 70K to be exact (not accounting for TR expenses)... but It's all or nothing. I don't want to die without saying I tried... There is always time to NOT pay the bank, in the case of a worst worst case scenario.


why ? why ? why ?

Why dont you work a couple of years and save the money you need ? why put yourself in debt that will hunt you the rest of your life ??

just mad !

[Sorath]

why ? why ? why ?
Why dont you work a couple of years and save the money you need ? why put yourself in debt that will hunt you the rest of your life ??
just mad !
Less than 15K interests... 8 year loan, aprox 800-900 monthly, "the rest of my life" is a bit of an overstatement .... some people mortgage a house and 2 cars for well over 400k... I find that mad.... I guess I'm investing in my future. A future I want. Plus, I want to get started asap; turning 30 this year. Eventually if all goes right I'll earn more money than being and Engineer in Spain. Risk vs Reward seems OK to me, I guess someone with a bit of more financial apprehension could see it with other eyes.
The only problem I see really is that by the time I'm finished with flight school I don't land a job straight away... but I have my plan B financially speaking, so really it's just a matter of time.. That doesn't take away my that I will be incredibly annoyed with the fact that I'm not flying in an airline or elsewhere by the time I'm done training...it will, certainly, eat me up inside.

But overall, I will not deny that asking for a loan with this level of uncertainty does give me the chills.

[Buenas]

Less than 15K interests... 8 year loan, aprox 800-900 monthly, "the rest of my life" is a bit of an overstatement .... some people mortgage a house and 2 cars for well over 400k... I find that mad.... I guess I'm investing in my future. A future I want. Plus, I want to get started asap; turning 30 this year. Eventually if all goes right I'll earn more money than being and Engineer in Spain. Risk vs Reward seems OK to me, I guess someone with a bit of more financial apprehension could see it with other eyes.
The only problem I see really is that by the time I'm finished with flight school I don't land a job straight away... but I have my plan B financially speaking, so really it's just a matter of time.. That doesn't take away my that I will be incredibly annoyed with the fact that I'm not flying in an airline or elsewhere by the time I'm done training...it will, certainly, eat me up inside.

But overall, I will not deny that asking for a loan with this level of uncertainty does give me the chills.

Did you also included a 30 k loan for your TR and maybe another 10k to keep your licences current? Or do you expect to enter a legacy with all paid from the start ?

I hope it works fine for you and wont look back at this post and think “i should had...”. While working as an engineer and paying 900€ per month. Which in Spain is nearly your whole monthly salary.

Buenas

ps: have you checked salaries at vueling and volotea when you looked at risk vs reward?

[Sorath]

Did you also included a 30 k loan for your TR and maybe another 10k to keep your licences current? Or do you expect to enter a legacy with all paid from the start ?

I hope it works fine for you and wont look back at this post and think “i should had...”. While working as an engineer and paying 900€ per month. Which in Spain is nearly your whole monthly salary.

Buenas

ps: have you checked salaries at vueling and volotea when you looked at risk vs reward?
Evidently I do not plan to enter a Legacy carrier...
I will not take into account TR costs as I will try/hope to find an airline that bonds or partially pays your TR straight from flight school. There it always time to ask for more money later.
Yes I do have money saved to keep my licences current.

I believe you might be a bit mistaken with salaries In Spain... I earn well over 2k so, it might be tight but it's fine.

I have checked the salaries in vueling volotea and they are lower than your average low cost in Europe... but I'm not getting into this to get rich, just to be happy with my job.

Cheers, thanks for your concerns, I don't mind people being realistic (perhaps a little pessimistic). It's good to see all sides of things.

Hasta luego

[flocci_non_faccio]

The music has well and truly stopped. Anybody thinking of training now is quite frankly certifiable unless money is no object and they don't need a job at the end of it.

There are going to be mass redundancies over the coming years; the consequence of a serious contraction in airline capacity within Europe. I would be surprised if there's any significant airline recruitment over the next five years or possibly longer. Anybody made redundant now, regardless of experience, will have to face up to the fact that there's a strong likelihood that they will never find another flying job.

[gbotley]

But overall, I will not deny that asking for a loan with this level of uncertainty does give me the chills.

And as it so should! -- It's a lot of money.

My advice to you is to look very closely at the expected salaries at airlines you want to end up at. Ideally, those that take low hour pilots. My own forecasts for finance were based on full time salary not in the slightest aware some airlines force RESERVE or part time as you progress in your career. The latter case representing a reasonable drop in salary over winter. Could you afford your loan repayments in that event?

All the best though!

[Sorath]

And as it so should! -- It's a lot of money.

My advice to you is to look very closely at the expected salaries at airlines you want to end up at. Ideally, those that take low hour pilots. My own forecasts for finance were based on full time salary not in the slightest aware some airlines force RESERVE or part time as you progress in your career. The latter case representing a reasonable drop in salary over winter. Could you afford your loan repayments in that event?

All the best though!
I have heard/read about low hour pilots being put in reserve for low season... I guess that is the financial model some low costs have... I can certainly wait it out, I'm only living with "living expenses", I don't have a mortgage nor am I paying rent, guess I'm lucky my house is paid for. It would be insane to do this otherwise, the numbers just wouldn't add up.

[covec]

The answer is “Yes”.

Regrettably.

[jamestkirk]

Like an idiot i gave my life up and trained just after 2001. thinking the market would pick up. Got an FO job then in 2006. I spent the meantime as a flight instructor and I will say, not fulfilling.

This feels exactly the same situation developing as it was back in the days of no opportunities.

Please everyone , think before you really commit to this life as i had a torrid time trying to find work.

Flying aircraft is great but its not worth massive sacrifices.

[Chief Willy]

I worry this will not be a “V” shaped recovery at all and it will take a protracted time for confidence to return to aviation. There is already a huge surplus of pilots and with more airlines set to go under this will only get worse. You’d fail the sanity part of the Class 1 medical if you think now is a good time to start training. Walk away, do something else for the next couple of years, don’t make a massive financial mistake which you will possibly never recover from.

[Rottweiler22]

For the time being, yes, the hiring boom is over. I would say that coming out of training now is the same as just after 9/11, or in 2009. In the UK alone, there are 600 ex flyBe pilots out of work. But, on the other hand I would say now could be a good time to start training, as in 2-3 years time we could be on the up again. Please note the words “could”. There are never any guarantees (look at what BA have just done, cancelling signed contracts...), and flight training is always an expensive gamble.

Much like the virus itself, my guess is that it will have devastating effects on the airlines already with serious health problems. It’s already happened with flyBe. Only the strongest airlines, with the healthiest balance sheets, cash reserves, and operational flexibility will survive. So sadly, yes, I do think that in the coming weeks there will be more airline bankruptcies, administrations, or liquidations. This will put even more pilots on the market.

But, we have to remain positive. As it stands, stronger airlines are confident that coronavirus is a short-term thing, hence the majority of which implementing “unpaid leave”, as opposed to redundancies. As a return to normality is expected once the virus has burned out, productivity is hoped to return to normal levels, making redundancies pointless. Providing this continues to happen, and employees are willing to take unpaid leave or go part time in order to alleviate the lack of income due current low numbers of bookings, as well as the implementation of cost cutting by the airlines, they will be able to keep heads above water and preserve jobs. This was highlighted brilliantly in a speech by the Southwest CEO.

If airlines take the hits, be pro-active, get through the next couple of months, and work on making their booking trends positive again, then there IS hope. There will be light at the end of the tunnel. It will be the end of the trough, and the very beginning of a long journey to a peak. Thankfully, most European airlines are doing this already, so I am confident this will not the end of commercial aviation, and come early Summer the bookings will be rising again. And when it gets past a certain level, recruitment will begin again.

[The Foss]

I would wait at least 6 months to a year to commit to any self funded training to see which way this is headed.
If this does turn out as the next 9/11 you do not want to be entering the market with a debt to pay in the next few years.
To jump in now would be nothing more than a blind gamble.

[flocci_non_faccio]

It's incredibly optimistic to think that this is "the next 9/11". The impact on aviation is far, far worse than that, and it's only going to get much, much worse.

Without government intervention, it's hard to see how any airline in Europe is going to survive this.

[SkyTeam95]

It's incredibly optimistic to think that this is "the next 9/11". The impact on aviation is far, far worse than that, and it's only going to get much, much worse.

Without government intervention, it's hard to see how any airline in Europe is going to survive this.

Guys dont be overdramatic. We have to wait and watch out what happens in the next couple of months. The Max is also on its way and airlines will need pilots again. Of course we will see some airlines go bancrupt but thats not new for us and normal. All big players will survive this and in the worst case they will get help from the goverment. Aviation is still booming and pilots are still needed. In the last few weeks we had a dramatic overreaction or hysteria. Lets wait and look how its finaly went out. The Max desaster could help us low hour pilots. I am also a little bit scared by this situation but we are on a peak of hysteria and it has a reason why airlines think that everything could be back to normal in a couple of months. According to some news the number of new infected people in China is dropping and some vaccines are in blind trials.

[covec]

Not the time to be saddling yourself (& family?) with large scale debt.

Save up. Wait. There are already a large number of qualified pilots out of work in the UK: Monarch. Thomas Cook. Flybe.

[wiggy]

I am also a little bit scared by this situation but we are on a peak of hysteria and it has a reason why airlines think that everything could be back to normal in a couple of months..

TBH I’m struggling with that comment.....

Having read internal briefings and e-mails written by people not given to be hysterical, and seeing some of our aircraft starting to be parked up and with the advantage of having seen what happened during GW 1 and 9/11 I’d say the that there are vanishingly few airlines, if any, where everything could be back to normal in two months......

There’s been a lot of good advice in previous posts that I can heartily second : now is not the time to leap into an integrated course, it is the time for keeping other income streams available and not committing yourself or nearest and dearest to shouldering debt funding a course

[Citationcj2]

The only people that benefited in the aviation boom were flight schools. Nobody else
They sell an amazing story to vulnerable new pilots who are willing to put their life savings at stake or even more.
100€K to be a pilot.
It reminds me of the day I attended my first pilots seminar with PTC ( pilot training college) a company that promised doom and gloom, which soon after went bust. Glad I went modular then.
40€ K in total, and still had a capital left in my aircraft share!

Who ever has a job now, either lost it, or is waiting to be made redundant or even worse let go.

It the next thing after 9/11.
Keep your money guys, and don’t believe all the insta fake people that pretend its a heaven of a job! You only see one side of a story.

But the boom is over thats for sure. And there will be a very long road ahead, especially with tons of qualified pilots currently on the market. So think twice

[jamestkirk]

What Citation said.

I have heard: BA cancelling courses for new people and offering (soon to be compulsory) unpaid leave, Ryanair cancelling courses, resignations not being allowed to be rescinded, the general rumours about Norwegian and others, Flybe has put 600 pilots on the market, global slowdown that may cause global recession.

Not the time to train!!!!

Oh, the 'it will pass in a few months'. I applaud the optimism but this will be years.

[jamestkirk]

Sorry, after posting that, I just saw this.

​​​​​​https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51875271

[aileron]

Airlines will now lay staff off, park airplanes and reduce salaries (which will never increase to their former levels). Aviation is getting increasingly chaotic. After cv19, there’ll be something else.

[Hawker400]

https://www.eurocockpit.be/news/change-gonna-come


Recommended reading by all.

The airli​​​​​ne industry that emerges from this crisis, will not look like the one that went into it. A change is indeed gonna come. Grit your teeth and hang onto your hats.

[covec]

https://www.eurocockpit.be/news/change-gonna-come


Recommended reading by all.



Sobering article. I’m sticking to my FI work. Forget chasing airlines.


Re airliners being clean: yes, but it’s the airport. The lifts. Escalator handrails. Queues. Cafes. Cashpoints. Taxis. Trains. People everywhere, from everywhere. The passenger behind sneezing over the back of your head.

And then there’s Climate Change...

The UK market hiring boom is well and truly dead for what...5 years? 10 years? How long will it take for those made redundant & lucky enough to be picked up by say, Loganair to work through their airline careers?

[Chief Willy]

Even Ryanair have frozen recruitment now. Airlines are closing up shop and bracing themselves for a torrid 2020. Things should hopefully improve by 2021 but these things tend to come back slowly.

If you haven't committed any or much money to flight training yet, don't! Pull out of training if you must. Save your money, find a job, delay your training until we have a better idea of what aviation will look like in the medium-term.

Walk away, and look back when the dust has settled.

[Sorath]

I think that I'll still get into training in May... I'm 30 can't afford to wait longer... I hope that by 2022 things will be better, if not, I'll stay in my current job I guess until time is right... worst thing is that I'll have to keep my training current... other than that I still think aviation is going up...

When all of you guys are recommending to bot get into training do you speak of U.K. alone or do you really have insight for all Europe...

[gbotley]

Sorath, I guess it's referencing most of Europe really. The industry is actually very small comparative to the geography of Europe. Big players of newly qualified pilots and those which hold most of the market are typically easyJet and Ryanair plus a few other outfits like Wizz, EuroWings etc that tend to take less. If the coronavirus and border lockdowns continue then the industry will be a very different place for a fair few years. Airlines with deep pockets will ride the wave, but others will fail. Norwegian is perhaps one of the weaker links based on recent press. Who is to join them? We don't know. If you continue down your training journey I wish you the best of luck with it. It's a hard but rewarding process and I'd like to hope for both your own sake and my own that the industry is still a float in a healthy fashion by the year 2020 as you say.

[Sorath]

Sorath, I guess it's referencing most of Europe really. The industry is actually very small comparative to the geography of Europe. Big players of newly qualified pilots and those which hold most of the market are typically easyJet and Ryanair plus a few other outfits like Wizz, EuroWings etc that tend to take less. If the coronavirus and border lockdowns continue then the industry will be a very different place for a fair few years. Airlines with deep pockets will ride the wave, but others will fail. Norwegian is perhaps one of the weaker links based on recent press. Who is to join them? We don't know. If you continue down your training journey I wish you the best of luck with it. It's a hard but rewarding process and I'd like to hope for both your own sake and my own that the industry is still a float in a healthy fashion by the year 2020 as you say.
Thanks for your insights. I truly hope things get better. I'm so sorry for those newly graduated pilots right now... must be a devastating blow... specially for those that have no backup profession.
Hang in there guys.
Can't imagine what it's like to finish with so much hope and suddenly... this crap going on.

[Smooth Airperator]

I don't think it's a bad suggestion to continue or even start your flight training this year. Provided you do it modular and do it part time, you won't be ready for another 14-18 months anyway. The trick is to take your time with just enough exposure to keep you in touch with aviation whilst not sacrificing your other job. If you're ready by end of 2021 / early 2022 but there's still no pilot jobs, so what, go back to your old jobs. Then save your cash, ready to hand over for type ratings and the like. When hiring booms come, they can also be gone in a matter of months or even weeks. The important bit is to be ready. A 2 year old bare bones fATPL is just as good as a 3 month old one. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

[Sorath]

A 2 year old bare bones fATPL is just as good as a 3 month old one. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Sure , but you'll need to keep it fresh right? I mean you'll be tested in your interviews after all ... so as far as practicality goes... the fresher you have it the better.... and if your "waiting job" let's call it, has nothing to do with commercial aviation... It's going to be harder.

[Smooth Airperator]

I went through two major downturns before finally landing a pilot job. I had to keep my ATPL fresh for 4 years and some I know even longer. No major drama. Many guys being made redundant today will have to do the same. This desire to be and concept of being "fresh" is cute but nothing more. Most people end up waiting years.

[SeventhHeaven]

It took me 2 years to get a foot in the door at a major airline as well, and I was EXTREMELY lucky. Recruiters don't have trouble finding candidates, there are dozens of applicants for every job. The first ones out are the ones with poor ATPL results and skills test failures. The second ones out are those that have been out of training for a while (a year+) and stop flying. Recruiters are even open about this, it's not a secret at all.

**** even flybe, known for hiring low hour cadets and paying a TR for them, had an application checkbox for 'I have flown 50hrs + in the last 12 months' and for 'glass cockpit IFR'

I agree that it's unfair and ridiculous and unscientific. But it's reality.

[Sorath]

It took me 2 years to get a foot in the door at a major airline as well, and I was EXTREMELY lucky. Recruiters don't have trouble finding candidates, there are dozens of applicants for every job. The first ones out are the ones with poor ATPL results and skills test failures. The second ones out are those that have been out of training for a while (a year+) and stop flying. Recruiters are even open about this, it's not a secret at all.

**** even flybe, known for hiring low hour cadets and paying a TR for them, had an application checkbox for 'I have flown 50hrs + in the last 12 months' and for 'glass cockpit IFR'

I agree that it's unfair and ridiculous and unscientific. But it's reality.
If you don't mind the question, did you work as a pilot for those 2 years until you landed the job?

[arrowcapitan]

it's simply over ......The industry stated to slow down last year , there was a boom in the industry because of lack of experienced pilots and companies had money to pour in 2016 ......Now we lost both . I cannot understand people who are saying there will be a big demand in the near future . This is not true at all . I wish everyone good luck .

[slate100]

British scientists are now saying that forced suppression and social distancing will be required until a vaccine is developed. That could be 12 to 18 months away.

This will spell the end for the airlines (except cargo) for the next 1.5 years.

Then I expect a slow, slow recovery. It will not be V shaped. People are going to be scarred by this. People will be afraid to travel for a long time.

[Daddy Fantastic]

Its funny how I have a new found passion for aviation. Being an airline pilot again is no longer important to me. I have been doing it but to be honest a good cargo job or medical evac pilot job and many others would be just as rewarding with none of the airline heartache.

I for one can honestly say airlines are now probably behind me and just not worth pursuing anymore. Those who still want it, good luck to you and I hope it works out...

[flocci_non_faccio]

British scientists are now saying that forced suppression and social distancing will be required until a vaccine is developed. That could be 12 to 18 months away.

It will not go on for 12-18 months. That may well solve the virus issue, but it would be at the cost of destroying the entire social order. There would be rioting, looting etc. At some point the scale will tip in favour of just allowing people to become infected and die.

With that said, airline flying is in my opinion terminally damaged. There may be room for a very limited airline sector, but I'd be surprised if it was any larger than a quarter to a third of its current size. That means mass layoffs and many experienced pilots who will never find another flying job and will be seeing out their working lives on minimum wage at best as they have zero transferrable skills, and in many (most?) cases no other relevant qualifications. I would not expect to see any pilots hired within the UK market until 2030 at the absolute earliest.

[Citationcj2]

It will not go on for 12-18 months. That may well solve the virus issue, but it would be at the cost of destroying the entire social order. There would be rioting, looting etc. At some point the scale will tip in favour of just allowing people to become infected and die.

With that said, airline flying is in my opinion terminally damaged. There may be room for a very limited airline sector, but I'd be surprised if it was any larger than a quarter to a third of its current size. That means mass layoffs and many experienced pilots who will never find another flying job and will be seeing out their working lives on minimum wage at best as they have zero transferrable skills, and in many (most?) cases no other relevant qualifications. I would not expect to see any pilots hired within the UK market until 2030 at the absolute earliest.

Now whilst I agree with most of your comments, but I certainly don’t think its going to be that bad.

This whole current scenario is very much vaccine dependent.

If the people can work their magic soon enough, this could be the sharp end of it, and this means the reintegration will starts asap!

lets hope for that

[slate100]

Now whilst I agree with most of your comments, but I certainly don’t think its going to be that bad.

This whole current scenario is very much vaccine dependent.

If the people can work their magic soon enough, this could be the sharp end of it, and this means the reintegration will starts asap!

lets hope for that


The vaccine is 12 to 18 months away based on every expert I've read.

After that, it's going to be a slowwwww recovery for the travel and tourism sector.

My money is on 4 to 5 years before aviation is back at pre-virus levels...

For those of you who think this is just an ordinary flu, so who cares.... read the stories of Spanish and Italian doctors who are basically taking away ventilators from people over age 65 and instead giving them pain killers to ease their death.

Wait for that to start hitting close to home... when it starts hitting the English speaking world....

[Mrpeewee]

Well, the current hiring boom at the moment I hear are funeral homes and crematoriums

aviation is dead

[vermont]

I don't think it's a bad suggestion to continue or even start your flight training this year. Provided you do it modular and do it part time, you won't be ready for another 14-18 months anyway. The trick is to take your time with just enough exposure to keep you in touch with aviation whilst not sacrificing your other job. If you're ready by end of 2021 / early 2022 but there's still no pilot jobs, so what, go back to your old jobs. Then save your cash, ready to hand over for type ratings and the like. When hiring booms come, they can also be gone in a matter of months or even weeks. The important bit is to be ready. A 2 year old bare bones fATPL is just as good as a 3 month old one. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Not sure what to believe, half are saying you'd have to be an idiot to keep training, and the job is total **** if you ever get hired (which will happen next in 2030???) The other half are saying you're lucky and there will be less competition when you finish...

[A320LGW]

It will not go on for 12-18 months. That may well solve the virus issue, but it would be at the cost of destroying the entire social order. There would be rioting, looting etc. At some point the scale will tip in favour of just allowing people to become infected and die.

With that said, airline flying is in my opinion terminally damaged. There may be room for a very limited airline sector, but I'd be surprised if it was any larger than a quarter to a third of its current size. That means mass layoffs and many experienced pilots who will never find another flying job and will be seeing out their working lives on minimum wage at best as they have zero transferrable skills, and in many (most?) cases no other relevant qualifications. I would not expect to see any pilots hired within the UK market until 2030 at the absolute earliest.

What absolute hogwash. The trouble is people on here may actually believe you 😩

[Sorath]

What absolute hogwash. The trouble is people on here may actually believe you 😩
So true... I'm a wannabe and a lot of what I read here is just making me doubt myself for wanting to become a pilot, as if I were crazy or something... I do believe this situation will change industry forever as 9-11 did but I seriously doubt there will not be a place for cadets some time in the future, hopefully there will be in a near future (two years) than far future (ten years).

Some people should start hoarding aluminum foil for their tin hats instead of so much toilet paper...

[portos8]

My money is on 4 to 5 years before aviation is back at pre-virus levels...



Mine too. So if you are about to start with training, as mentioned so many times by others, go modular and SPREAD IT OUT. Do not pay flight schools large sums up front as some will go bankrupt in the near future. And be mean, you do not want to come out of this process with a big debt to service. Actually try to come out of this with a basic fATPL and no debt at all. It is possible, it has been done before. You have time.

[Citationcj2]

So true... I'm a wannabe and a lot of what I read here is just making me doubt myself for wanting to become a pilot, as if I were crazy or something... I do believe this situation will change industry forever as 9-11 did but I seriously doubt there will not be a place for cadets some time in the future, hopefully there will be in a near future (two years) than far future (ten years).

Some people should start hoarding aluminum foil for their tin hats instead of so much toilet paper...

Theres two sides of every story!

One is people wanna train and they believe its the right thing, as we all believed at one stage

Then you have people who “been there, done that” are telling you not to do it.

I’m personally of the opinion to keep your cash as long as you can. Dont give up, but dont be going all out on this as this could be a lengthy process.
Theres still a few airlines possibly to go belly up, and realistically speaking market will be flooded with professional and rated pilots.

The problem is, the true reality hasn’t kicked in yet, and people still think the pre-virus way.

Give it some time and you will see the changes, firstly flight schools will start to drop their prices, you might be in a better position.

But as it stands, the aviation is dead. All you have to do and look at the FR24 to see it happening.
No EZY Planes, No RYR, No Norwegian, No Iberia, etc.

And me a current and thousands of hour pilot Im out of job for foreseeable future!

good luck

[Pinuz89]

Guys, finishing the entire training, ("zero to hero") in 18 months / 2 years is the best case scenario.
Loads of other factors are involved, school organisation, training outcomes, eventually exams to be repeated, aircrafts which go on maintanance, no slots for flying (eg. between CPL and IR).
I can tell, I ran around 4 schools.

So I wouldn't be too scared about the current situation, consider 2 years as minimum.
If you consider also the time to get a type rating and a line training (like MPLs) add something like 8 months more, the pandemic will be over sooner.

[Pinuz89]

Furthermore a modular route, can be furtherly spreaded, allowing also people to keep their current jobs.
I'm my opinion if you have to sell you house to become a pilot, of course, think it twice.
If having a loan is not such a huge problem, I wouldn't be so concerned, considering a time lapse of 2/3 years.

Airlines which were booming before the pandemic, will expand even more with emptier skies (look Wizz).

[Sorath]

Guys, finishing the entire training, ("zero to hero") in 18 months / 2 years is the best case scenario.
Loads of other factors are involved, school organisation, training outcomes, eventually exams to be repeated, aircrafts which go on maintanance, no slots for flying (eg. between CPL and IR).
I can tell, I ran around 4 schools.

So I wouldn't be too scared about the current situation, consider 2 years as minimum.
If you consider also the time to get a type rating and a line training (like MPLs) add something like 8 months more, the pandemic will be over sooner.
The question is.. what will be left over those 2years+8months... will there be spots for fresh fATPLs or not. Is it worth it to wait it out having to pay for your "current status".... we all hope it just blows away but even if everyone wanted to fly again, airlines will be damaged economically and they might not be able to operate or expand as they desire...
I truly hope this is a V shape recovery pattern but the more time the airlines are grounded the more U shape the recovery will be... a long U that is.

[flocci_non_faccio]

What absolute hogwash. The trouble is people on here may actually believe you 😩

What exactly is unbelievable? Take easyJet for example: they have a relatively young pilot workforce, with no real retirement bubble imminent. There is no reason to suggest that attrition will be particularly high. Considering that it is highly likely easyJet will shrink their fleet by a third or more, resulting in significant pilot redundancies, why would you think that they'll have any need for new hires within the next ten years? Bear in mind that easyJet has been one of the major hirers of pilots for the past couple of decades.

There will be hundreds, perhaps thousands, of pilots laid off in the UK alone over the coming months. A sizeable proportion will probably never get another flying job.

[Sorath]

What exactly is unbelievable? Take easyJet for example: they have a relatively young pilot workforce, with no real retirement bubble imminent. There is no reason to suggest that attrition will be particularly high. Considering that it is highly likely easyJet will shrink their fleet by a third or more, resulting in significant pilot redundancies, why would you think that they'll have any need for new hires within the next ten years? Bear in mind that easyJet has been one of the major hirers of pilots for the past couple of decades.

There will be hundreds, perhaps thousands, of pilots laid off in the UK alone over the coming months. A sizeable proportion will probably never get another flying job.
Perhaps attrition may come from legacy carriers with retirement bubble employing them since they have better conditions as a company, therefore generating a void.
But if the industry shrinks... there will be overpopulation, yes..

[flocci_non_faccio]

But if the industry shrinks... there will be overpopulation, yes..

If the industry shrinks?!

Some people really need to get their head out of the sand.

[weimaraners]

Anyone thinking on getting a job in any type of airline in EU land anytime soon is just dreaming on. Not stating just my own opinion, but also stating reality facts. Have a little research on how many airline have disappeard in just last 3 years: Monarch, Air Berlin, WOW, Germania, Primera Air, Cobalt, XL , Aigle azur, Air italy, flybe... that's just in EU in 3 years. It gives cold chills down my spine.

Is true the saying in aviation that "In hiring/good times you compete with 100s of pilots, and in bad times you compete with 1000s of pilots". So the reality is that there is a lot of experienced chaps on all types (737/320/330 etc) with thousands of hours of commercial flying that are or will be looking for a job. For a new CPL pilot i can not imagine a worst scenario at this moment.

Be really wise on the decision to embark on a career flying in this exact moment, as it could be said without exagerating that even if you would start training now from scratch you are likely to never find a job. How long the recovery will take nobody can tell, as no one can see the future.

[covec]

Perhaps attrition may come from legacy carriers with retirement bubble employing them since they have better conditions as a company, therefore generating a void.
But if the industry shrinks... there will be overpopulation, yes..

Well, Sorath here in the UK with BMI, Monarch, TC & Flybe all gone, now CV-19, flight schedule reductions from Loganair, BA & Easy I cannot see a quick return to hiring low hour FOs straight out of school.

I know because I had my Loganair Sim Assessment cancelled and only Flybe or ATR rated crews are being recruited. Eastern want their FOs to have 1000 hours (I do) and 500 multi (I don't: 52).

Then there's Norwegian. Delta. Qantas. Air New Zealand. VA & Gulf states various all cutting back. Missed anyone?

Then of course we are leaving EASA allegedly. But here in Scotland we may rejoin if independent. Talk about slowing to Va...

Maybe Spain is doing better? Any recommendations? ;)

[Mrpeewee]

Ask 100 Pilots

Get 100 different answers

At the end of the day!

No one really knows what’s going to happen?

PeeWee

[Douglas Bahada]

I foresee zero expansion in the short to midterm. Command prospects will slow for those fortunate to keep working. There may even be redundencies in the low cost sectors with "junior" Captains reverting back to right hand seats. If you are very newly employed you might find yourself seeking an alternative workplace. easyJet for example has 330 ISH aircraft with 100 orders BUT a majority shareholder who wants in the region of 250 aircraft which he considers the most cost /profit effective number.

[covec]

Mrpeewee, Agreed.

Other than the DTOs/ATOs will still happily take your cash whatever...that’s def.

[Citationcj2]

Ask 100 Pilots

Get 100 different answers

At the end of the day!

No one really knows what’s going to happen?

PeeWee

You don’t need to be too smart to see what will happen.

Avalon just cancelled their multi million order of 75 B737Max aircraft, and many other airlines are doing the same, not only with Boeing, but Airbus order are being slashed too.

So based on that, take it that there will be no expansion, but downgrade only, and as it stands theres 1000s of over qualified Pilots on the market already.

So to commence the training now, just to be another sardine in the water... hmm Id think twice.

[Banana Joe]

It's just impossible to make any predictions. It could be a horrible couple of years with orders being cancelled and airlines going bankrupt, or the industry could contract this year and then start recovering again next year and boom for a few more years.
It's a cycle, at some point it will go up again. How much will it sink? How much will it bounce back? Impossible to tell. I think the next 2-3 months will be crucial to get a picture of what the industry will do. If restrictions start being lifted gradually, we may experience a gradual, slow but steady recovery, with pre-Covid levels to be reached in a couple of years.

Much depends on the outcome of a possible vaccine.
​​​​​

[Less Hair]

The summer season is lost. So winter will be the earliest to see some tiny recovery in demand. This thing will take some years to buff out for sure. Aircraft manufacturing rates will tell us a lot about the industry's recovery assumptions. GE cut the engine production by half already.

[cefey]

Wizz just fired 250 great lads. My guess a lot more will follow throughout the Europe if COVID situation doesn´t improve

[truckflyer]

The summer season is lost. So winter will be the earliest to see some tiny recovery in demand. This thing will take some years to buff out for sure. Aircraft manufacturing rates will tell us a lot about the industry's recovery assumptions. GE cut the engine production by half already.

Winter the airlines have to many pilots always, so assume rest of this year lost, assume another few thousands of pilots loosing their jobs in Europe, Asia and Middle East, in addition to FlyBe, Thomas Cook now recently.

2021 will be very hard for any new guys to get a job. All the guys on courses have had they courses frozen, and expect a lot to hire unemployed guys first, through various union agreements. 2022 is the earliest, and that is being extremely optimistic of the aftermath of this current situation. Sit tight, hold on to your cash.
Expect house price crash, negative equality, millions defaulting on their mortgages, rent etc., because unprecedented number of people all over the world are loosing their jobs and their income.
Travel will not be the priority for most when the economy starts to open up.

I know guys few days before their command courses just got stopped, guys working their notice periods in their current company getting told by their new company that contract was cancelled, back in the hold pool for unknown time. People with job interviews lined up, all just stopped up, within few days notice. It has been brutal out there in the world of aviation, and it's going to get worse over the next few months unfortunately.

[guy_incognito]

It is hard to see anything other than very limited recruitment in very limited markets in the next 12-18 months.

[jamestkirk]

Yes, the boom is over for a while at least.
As the cyclical nature of aviation it will pick up. My back of fag packet prediction FWIW is about 3+ years.
If you are just out of training and young then just be nothing more than frustrated. It will pick up and if the airlines etc keep their relationship with the FTO's then you will get the assessment when the market picks up and any rated experience jet pilots are absorbed back in the system.
Its more worrying for pilots in the turbo-prop/different type of flying category who historically airlines were not overly interested in. For example, anyone here (like i was) in the mid late noughties with Tprop time trying to get a job with an airline over a new integrated student. It rarely happened and i believe this will be the case again.

[planesandthings]

If you are just out of training and young then just be nothing more than frustrated.

Perhaps a few that had rich family or inheritance to pay can feel this way, but I certainly would be feeling more than frustration if I had borrowed a large amount of money requiring repayment.

Serious question, how likely could this bankrupt an individual out of training with debts, if they do not get a job for 2 years?

[jamestkirk]

Yes, sorry there is that. I had similar financial woes when looking for work.
its a harsh move to claim bankruptcy. Your scuppered for everything for five years. Someone could probably enter into an interest only Repayment on a loan as a less drastic move.
I did consider it at one point many years ago When I was out of training and no substantially paid work for years. I got a couple of CCJs but after five years they were gone and now have a clean credit rating.

[planesandthings]

Yes, sorry there is that. I had similar financial woes when looking for work.
its a harsh move to claim bankruptcy. Your scuppered for everything for five years. Someone could probably enter into an interest only Repayment on a loan as a less drastic move.
I did consider it at one point many years ago When I was out of training and no substantially paid work for years. I got a couple of CCJs but after five years they were gone and now have a clean credit rating.

Good insight! Thanks:)

[Meester proach]

Yes, you might as well forget it for five years to be honest .

[parkfell]

William Pitt the younger in 1806 :

“roll up the map of Europe, it will not be needed for 10 years”