UK - Botched Nuclear Warhead Projects - The Economist

[Asturias56]

Botched nuclear projects put the future of Britain’s defences at riskCosts have ballooned as decrepit facilities remain in use Britain (https://www.economist.com/britain/) Feb 6th 2020

FOR OVER 50 years without pause, there has always been a British submarine hidden somewhere in the depths of the world’s oceans, loaded with thermonuclear weapons. This unceasing prowl—known as a Continuous At-Sea Deterrent (CASD)—depends on a sprawling infrastructure of nuclear sites across Britain. But a report published in January by the National Audit Office (NAO), Parliament’s spending watchdog, suggests that Britain’s nuclear complex is in the throes of crisis.

The NAO reviewed three construction projects: a facility to build the Dreadnought-class submarines that are scheduled to carry British nukes from the early 2030s, another to produce their nuclear reactor cores and a third, known as MENSA, to assemble new warheads and dismantle old ones. All three have been fouled up. Costs have ballooned by £1.35bn, over twice the original estimate, with half of that caused by construction starting prematurely. Badly written contracts left the government, rather than contractors, on the hook. And MENSA is so severely delayed, by over six years, that decrepit 1960s facilities are being used long after they should have been decommissioned.

The report makes for “grim reading”, says Tom Plant, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, and formerly an official at the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE), which builds and maintains Britain’s nuclear warheads. But the situation is even worse, he says. Two other desperately needed facilities have also been botched. AWE was supposed to have built a £634m site for handling enriched uranium—the fissile material, along with plutonium, which goes inside bombs—four years ago, but the project was put on ice years ago. The facility used instead is so rickety that it had to be shut down for safety reasons in 2012-15.

Then there is the question of designing the warheads in the first place. For over 18 years Britain’s nuclear scientists have said that they need better data from hydrodynamic experiments, which model the high pressures and shock waves that occur when fissile material implodes inside a warhead. Britain has not conducted a live nuclear test since 1991, and signed a treaty forgoing all tests in 1996. But a planned facility which would have allowed three-way X-ray photographs of implosions was canned in 2010, though not before blowing through £120m. An equivalent capability, based in France as part of an Anglo-French agreement, is not due to turn up until 2022 at the earliest.

All this could have serious implications for Britain’s status as a nuclear-armed country. Its stockpile of 200 warheads is expected to become obsolete in the late 2030s. Extending their life or making new ones (a decision is due shortly) would require modern facilities in good working order. If delays persist or the new sites are sub-par, “then clearly CASD as we currently know it would be at risk”, warns Mr Plant, “perhaps from a safety-related shutdown to an ageing programme-critical facility, or from a lack of data or components to design and produce new warheads.”

Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s chief aide, is already on the warpath over mismanaged defence projects and profligate spending. The nuclear complex may be next in his sights.■

[Doctor Cruces]

Not surprised by this. HMG has an appalling record when it comes to costing, contracts and the ability to deliver anything at all from new computer systems to Chinook helicopters. This is what happpens when appointment at these very senior levels depends more on being "the right sort" than actual ability.

[Asturias56]

I suspect it's more that the "decision takers" aren't experts nor are they in post for very long. How many defence secretaries have there been in the last 10 years? Worse than football management :(

[Airbubba]

Here's the report if anybody is interested.

[Capt Kremmen]

Perhaps someone will correct me but. I cannot remember - within the last forty years - any capital project, either taxpayer funded or privately that has been finished on time and within budget. At a fundamental level, I wonder whether it has anything at all to do with grade inflation in the State educational system in GB.

At first glance, that might seem rather remote but, if, as I know from first hand experience, youngish middle manager material cannot properly express themselves because they are inadequately trained in basic literacy and numeracy then their professional career could stumble when expected to write reports prepare estimates and illustrate summaries

[tiddles52]

Perhaps someone will correct me but. I cannot remember - within the last forty years - any capital project, either taxpayer funded or privately that has been finished on time and within budget. At a fundamental level, I wonder whether it has anything at all to do with grade inflation in the State educational system in GB.

At first glance, that might seem rather remote but, if, as I know from first hand experience, youngish middle manager material cannot properly express themselves because they are inadequately trained in basic literacy and numeracy then their professional career could stumble when expected to write reports prepare estimates and illustrate summaries

Project inflation in the public sector has a simple cause : If the company told the Govt the proper full price at the start they'd never start the project! So a digestible figure is supplied, signed off, then the slow creep up begins. Same as the builder on your house does - quotes the job then starts adding to the bill as you make changes. That's the jam on the job.

G

[Easy Street]

Perhaps someone will correct me but. I cannot remember - within the last forty years - any capital project, either taxpayer funded or privately that has been finished on time and within budget. At a fundamental level, I wonder whether it has anything at all to do with grade inflation in the State educational system in GB.

London 2012 Olympics under budget (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/20041426)(needless to say they were on time!)

Quite often the trouble in the public sector is that during planning, costs are driven down in a blind push for ‘efficiencies’ so that they match the limited sums available. These ‘efficiencies’ get the expenditure approved and the work on contract but turn out to be unachievable in practice, especially when gold plating gets continually added to requirements. Then, the vulnerability of the masses to the ‘sunk cost fallacy’ ensures that the extra money is found to finish the work and avoid embarrassing failure being plastered all over the front pages. All in a year’s work on Whitehall.

[EricsLad]

To think, the Polaris project was within budget - but it was late. By 15 milli-seconds.

That included the weapon system, warheads, the boats and the infrastructure.

[Asturias56]

" I cannot remember - within the last forty years - any capital project, either taxpayer funded or privately that has been finished on time and within budget."

IIRC the recent monster revamp of Reading Railway station and the surrounding tracks (about £ 500 mm??) came in under budget and effectively a year early.......................

Of course we only get headlines for projects which fail so you have to assume that at least SOME come in on time and budget.................

[Martin the Martian]

The government of the day decides that it wants something shiny and new but is never prepared to pay the money needed for it.

[Sandy Parts]

Easy Street - re Olympics, the linked report states "The original budget was set in 2007 and was almost four times the estimated cost at the time London bid in 2005.

It was revised upwards after taking into account previously overlooked costs such as VAT, increased security costs, and an expanded brief to regenerate the lower Lea Valley area"

Not hard to be 'under budget' when you inflate the budget massively in order to achieve a political 'head above the parapet' goal....

[RedhillPhil]

" I cannot remember - within the last forty years - any capital project, either taxpayer funded or privately that has been finished on time and within budget."

IIRC the recent monster revamp of Reading Railway station and the surrounding tracks (about £ 500 mm??) came in under budget and effectively a year early.......................

Of course we only get headlines for projects which fail so you have to assume that at least SOME come in on time and budget.................
".........the monster revamp of Reading railway station......"
Unfortunately that's been negated by the mahoosively sexual intercourse-up of the Great Western electrification -much of which has been effectively canned- and the continuing delay/defer joke that is crossrail.

[Bing]

If it helps other countries are no better, see Berlin Airport (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308)and Hamburg Opera House (https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2016/nov/04/hamburg-elbphilhamonie-herzog-de-meuron-a-cathedral-for-our-time) for examples of massively over-budget and late projects.

[Vortex Hoop]

Time to scrap CASD and get a cheaper WE177-type option back for the Typhoon/Dave methinks?

[Capt Kremmen]

It used to be the case that bidders for most, if not all, private or State funded capital projects, had to submit as a vital part of their bid a banking device called a performance bond. These were designed to operate as per their title. All contract bidders would buy from their bank a performance bond to a pre-set value. This value would represent a percentage of the total value of the contract and the bank issuing or selling the bond would charge usually a fraction of one percent of the bond value.

If the contractor bid was successful, the bond would form a vital part of the contract terms. If the contractor failed to complete the contract on time or required additional funds to enable the contract to be completed, the bond would be forfeit and that could mean a very hefty penalty.

Other forum contributors might know differently but, I've yet to see any evidence that this device is still in use and used to encourage bidders to properly do their sums.

One other matter worth a mention and which still staggers me is the modern way of rewarding failure. The stupidity and incompetence of many of the people supervising capital projects is, to my mind, beyond all understanding. Yet, when they are uncovered no sanctions are applied, instead promotion follows with a commensurate increase in salary! Work that out! I know that some will say that that is a convenient way of getting rid of trouble. Really ? I think it is simply moving it along to create hassle for some other poor bu**er.

[golfbananajam]

Perhaps someone will correct me but. I cannot remember - within the last forty years - any capital project, either taxpayer funded or privately that has been finished on time and within budget. At a fundamental level, I wonder whether it has anything at all to do with grade inflation in the State educational system in GB.

At first glance, that might seem rather remote but, if, as I know from first hand experience, youngish middle manager material cannot properly express themselves because they are inadequately trained in basic literacy and numeracy then their professional career could stumble when expected to write reports prepare estimates and illustrate summaries


Looks like even more money is to be wasted.
Work is under way "by a range of government officials" to look at the idea of building a Scotland-Northern Ireland bridge, Number 10 has said. see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-5144319 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51443191)1 for the detail

[chevvron]

Looks like even more money is to be wasted.
Work is under way "by a range of government officials" to look at the idea of building a Scotland-Northern Ireland bridge, Number 10 has said. see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-5144319 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51443191)1 for the detail

Surely the EU will fund that.
Oh hang on...

[Asturias56]

Back on subject aren't both Aldermaston & Burghfield in private hands these days?

[AnglianAV8R]

Project inflation in the public sector has a simple cause : If the company told the Govt the proper full price at the start they'd never start the project! So a digestible figure is supplied, signed off, then the slow creep up begins. Same as the builder on your house does - quotes the job then starts adding to the bill as you make changes. That's the jam on the job.

G
I don't disagree with your view on how it works, generally. Indeed, Nimrod 2000 stands out as the classic example of such incremental creep in costs. However, I believe there is a fundamental legal meaning to the word "quote" as opposed to an estimate of cost.

[hunterboy]

If cost is the only driving factor, I’m surprised the UK government doesn’t just award the contracts to a Chinese or Russian firm. They seem to be cheaper for these big UK infrastructure projects.

[Less Hair]

Why not buy in the US again?

[RAFEngO74to09]

Why not buy in the US again?
The SLBM warheads have never been bought from the US - only the Polaris and Trident rockets.

UK Polaris, Polaris "Chevaline" MIRV upgrade and Trident warheads were all UK built.

https://www.tiki-toki.com/timeline/entry/59244/The-History-of-the-UK-Nuclear-Weapons-Programme/#vars!date=1962-10-21_21:31:40!

https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Uk/UKArsenalDev.html

https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/united-kingdom/nuclear/

[Whenurhappy]

Back on subject aren't both Aldermaston & Burghfield in private hands these days?
Government owned, contractor operated since 1993. The current consortium is Lockheed-Martin/Jacobs/Serco.

And I must take issue with the gross inaccuracies in the article. There are 1940s facilities still in use on both sites - Aldermaston was a MOS/USAAF airfield and Burghfield a shell-filling factory.

[Whenurhappy]

The SLBM warheads have never been bought from the US - only the Polaris and Trident rockets.

UK Polaris, Polaris "Chevaline" MIRV upgrade and Trident warheads were all UK built.

https://www.tiki-toki.com/timeline/entry/59244/The-History-of-the-UK-Nuclear-Weapons-Programme/#vars!date=1962-10-21_21:31:40!

https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Uk/UKArsenalDev.html

https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/united-kingdom/nuclear/
Yes, the Russian disinformation that the US controls Britain's warheads is strong and difficult to shift.

The concern should be is whether the UK has sufficient SQEP to design, manufacture and NDT a new range of warheads, whilst decommissioning the present stock of REVs. The last time AWE did this was in the early 1990s with the introduction of the Trident, decommissioning of the Chevaline upgrade and sustainment and then early retirement of the WE177 variants. Most of those then junior engineers and scientists will be retiring over the next few years.

[weemonkey]

Time to scrap CASD and get a cheaper WE177-type option back for the Typhoon/Dave methinks?

Nope.

The RAF neither has the technical expertise or corporate knowledge to maintain an airborne nuclear weapon system.

Of course there are still some active old gits going around who may have the skills, but they would have to make an extremely attractive offer to get us out of bed in the morning...

[Rocket2]

"but they would have to make an extremely attractive offer to get us out of bed in the morning"

Jeez the thought of having to do 100 day checks again (that usually took 30 days to complete on the V's) sends shudders down my spine - more brandy nursey :p

[pax britanica]

Surely its true that our nukes are US controlled- lets face it they have the highest regard for us when it comes to security and intelligence matters but as we could at anytime elect someone who in their eyes was a Commie why on earth wouldnt they have a backstop to stop such a person using them or not using them against US interestes.
As to the comment about Russian disinformation they might have been true once but these days they might already be in control of our defence network without us knowing it. After all they helped get us out of Europe and elected Boris didnt they?

Of course the words tongue and cheek sort of apply to above.
As for over budget projects they do exist everywhere except possibly France where Napoleans tactic of executing dodgy ship builders still lives in some memories but then the french seem accept that all such projects are run by crooked politicians and crooked contractors-if the overrun isnt obscene and the project works then its just c'est la vie.

The issue with HS2 is that is it really worth it given the Birmingham isnt far from London anyway and does it really matter to anyone if a train takes 55 minutes or 1 hr 20, its not going to make day trips easier or businessmens ives more efficient and certainly not cheaper , in terms of real improvments LHR 3 would be a better investment along with better cross country rail to diversify things away from London. Lets face it if phase 2, the northern part ,was to be built first it would never have left the drawing board

[beardy]

Nope.

The RAF neither has the technical expertise or corporate knowledge to maintain an airborne nuclear weapon system.
..
That was also true before they adopted nuclear weapons and look where that got us.

[weemonkey]

That was also true before they adopted nuclear weapons and look where that got us.

Yep!

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x786/20200211_152437_efeb84a36c27e0757af91808e6b2b79278e2c24f.jpg

[SASless]

You lot could not even the wheels on straight!:p

[Harley Quinn]

Yep!

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x786/20200211_152437_efeb84a36c27e0757af91808e6b2b79278e2c24f.jpg ⁹

Point of order, that aircraft just about maintaining flight is a naval aircraft; there's quite a big clue written on the side. I believe the RAF rightly hung their bombs off proper jets, flown by lantern jawed heroes, not scruffy bearded blokes. 🤓

[Whenurhappy]

Nope.

The RAF neither has the technical expertise or corporate knowledge to maintain an airborne nuclear weapon system.

Of course there are still some active old gits going around who may have the skills, but they would have to make an extremely attractive offer to get us out of bed in the morning...
it was briefly considered at senior levels by the RAF back in 2009 in the run up to SDSR 2010 and quickly dismissed as being a bonkers idea.

[Asturias56]

I agree - you'd never get them out of bed before the pubs open.......

[Whenurhappy]

Yep!

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x786/20200211_152437_efeb84a36c27e0757af91808e6b2b79278e2c24f.jpg
who in their right mind would strap a tactical nuke (in this case?a WE 177) to a helicopter? Presumably the crew drew lots to avoid this mission.

[[email protected]]

I'm sure the concept of the RN delivering a nuclear weapon at a max speed of about 90 kts and with regular stops for fuel really had Ivan quaking in his boots:)

[weemonkey]

I agree - you'd never get them out of bed before the pubs open.......

Aye, aye, a Pie and a Pint, you make it seem like a bad thing ;)

[Asturias56]

Ah - but remember the Swordfish? It flew so slowly and was soooo out of date it was success....................

[Chipzilla]

Perhaps someone will correct me but. I cannot remember - within the last forty years - any capital project, either taxpayer funded or privately that has been finished on time and within budget. At a fundamental level, I wonder whether it has anything at all to do with grade inflation in the State educational system in GB.

Manchester Metrolink Trafford Park extension?

[aw ditor]

A14 upgrade?

AS'

[tucumseh]

As this is the military forum, why not mention a controversial one?

BOWMAN HF replacement. Under cost, ahead of schedule and to a better spec; deployed in theatre before BOWMAN was contracted.

General Officer Commanding Afg - 'Comms system of choice'. He would know.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

All the black programs and secret R&D are funded by piling cost over runs on open projects. Every Western military is the same. It can't be a coincidence.


WWW

[Treble one]

Wasn't there a quite detailed concept paper (shared on here I think) when the Trident replacement discussion was ongoing, advocating the use of the F-35 force as both a land and sea based Nuclear strike force (carrying a 'WE177-like' weapon, possibly of US origin) as it was a much cheaper option than building replacement SSBN's? I think the general discussion on here was largely dismissive based upon vulnerability to a first strike or 'bolt from the blue' scenario, in much the same way that did for the V-Force in the Strategic Nuclear Role......leading to Polaris.

[Asturias56]

Fine if you want to drop a bomb on Kalingrad - that's 650 nm away - and the (optimistic ) current number for the F-35A is around 670 nm combat radius............................ worse for the one's the UK are buying............