View Full Version : nCoV and its effect on aviation

7th Feb 2020, 00:55
To avoid derailing other threads I thought the time is right to have a dedicated thread on nCoV and its effect on aviation. I would prefer that this thread stay here and not be moved to, say, Passengers and SLF forum as another thread was. A post by someone on the Australia, New Zealand and Pacific forum said this:

With lots of expat guys in China being put on leave without pay at short notice and others told donít bother coming back from leave it has a lot more to do with aviation than some of the other threads on here . It threatens the industry as a whole . Just the fear , wether justified or not will see a significant drop in passenger loads .
More info the better in my opinion . Exponential or not !!

7th Feb 2020, 01:07
Some data on the number of cases to date, and by how much they are increasing per day. Total number of cases first:


"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart are lines of best fit to mainland China data showing the daily increase in number of cases.

The rate of increase each day is plotted next:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/943x530/200206_ncov_rate_4d1669b0de5afc6bd42eaf4d7569426bd649879e.pn g

"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.

The rate of increase each day is trending downwards which is good. Even though the number of cases increased by a record amount, this was from a high total; the %age increase has declined.

Some posters express doubt about the actual number of cases in mainland China, claiming that they are under-reported. However, the trend in the number of cases in mainland China tracks very similarly to the rest of the world, which probably wouldn't be the case if there was significant under-reporting in a particular area.

7th Feb 2020, 03:22
I posted this in the other R&N forum on coronavirus. It probably belongs here:

China grows isolated as airlines cancel more than 50,000 flights amid coronavirus epidemic (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-china-becomes-increasingly-isolated-as-airlines-pull-out.html)

Published Thu, Feb 6 2020 1:46 PM EST
[. . .]
These steps have left China, the world’s second-largest air travel market after the U.S., more isolated. Airlines in dozens of countries — from New Zealand to Finland to the United Arab Emirates — have scaled back service or in the case of U.S. airlines canceled flights altogether to the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong as the coronavirus spreads. This will drive down airlines’ 2020 revenue and deprive other segments of the travel industry, including hotels and retailers, of high-spending tourists.

More (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-china-becomes-increasingly-isolated-as-airlines-pull-out.html)