Flights from China [Archive]

Rated De

31st Jan 2020, 05:48

It might also be pertinent to ask why the national carrier, who only yesterday claimed that person to person transmission was highly unlikely (BS that was sent to pilots also from their union-thanks to the QF folk that forwarded it!) has continued to operate there.
The list of airlines ceasing mainland China flying is growing and a lot of it is the purview of "workplace safety"

Air France
KLM
Turkish Airways
British Airways
American Airlines
Cathay Pacific (Halving capacity)
Finnair (something similar)

Christian Porter, the Attorney General of Backwater Australia, will need to get a hustle on to push through the union busting bill..
Those pesky unions keep getting in the way...

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/cancel-all-flights-calls-to-cancel-flights-between-australia-and-china/news-story/6b85bbbac4aabc05d122a16e4f9aa692

Where is the pilot leadership?
Is the Qantas pilot union doing anything other than vying for management office positions? Only yesterday they repeated to fallacy that person to person transmission is unlikely.

Aircraft filtration systems are more than adequate to effectively filter the air.
The virus is not easily transmitted from person to person; unlike SARS.

Phew, just as well, the Germans, Japanese and Americans must be lying.

Don't worry though there will be a conga line of volunteers, coming in on a day off, carrying minimum fuel, all resplendent with those white plastic hats.

Foxxster

31st Jan 2020, 06:00

Just heard we are evacuating our people from China using a normal Quant Arse crew. They will do a normal passenger run from Sydney to HK tonight before resting for about 36 hours. Then fly to China and on to Darwin landing 2.30 am Monday.

And yes we should ban all flights from China.

Rated De

31st Jan 2020, 07:30

Probably not a good idea to tech stop in WADD or anywhere else in Indonesia.
Might incur Little Napoleon's displeasure if you add fuel though..

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/that-s-a-problem-indonesia-s-coronavirus-vulnerability-revealed-20200130-p53wc9.html

SOPS

31st Jan 2020, 13:23

A week ago we were told in Australia .... Human to Human spread was low...now Deputy Cheif Medical Officer, Paul Kelly, says it's very possible.

And no health screening will at airports will help. It takes 2 weeks until you appear to be sick.

i think we are in serious trouble. Simply because the government won't lock down the borders because they are fearing to upset China.

Singapore has just announced its closing its borders to people from China.

Russia has closed its borders.

AerialPerspective

31st Jan 2020, 19:04

Rated De

31st Jan 2020, 19:26

I think the entire thing is a monumental overreaction. Some of the airlines that have suspended flights I'm sure are because of low loads. We are not talking about bubonic plague here, more people die of flu every year in Australia (which is a form of Coronavirus incidentally).

There's a bit of truth in the attached, although it is from a whimsical perspective. Just to balance out some of the panicking that's going on. I'm pretty sure I heard the WHO said the other day they do not recommend stopping flights.

https://thebeaverton.com/2020/01/report-outbreak-of-idiocy-spreading-10000-times-faster-than-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1z1X52xHtzIjYwipiH4CzfpXdO53npd7Io_D1pNP1rL-jhM7WIcjOS5fc

The problem with the WHO is that it is a political organisation, it's second biggest donor is China.

With respect to influenza, what is its R0?

If you didn't know it is 1.28.
This thing is estimated between 2.4-2.5.
If you care to extrapolate through cycles transmission rates with this R0 you will very quickly concede that it is nothing like influenza.

The New England Journal of Medicine has published very good case study research on the person to person transmission event in Germany.
What is very interesting is:

1. Incubation period was short.
2. Asymptomatic transmission was confirmed in three cases
3. Point 2 was further confirmed in that several patients had no contact with the index patient.

Only three days ago certain organisations including the Australian government refused to concede that person to person transmission was possible.
If there are asymptomatic transmissions occurring outside China, then it begins to fit the criteria of pandemic.

Wingspar

31st Jan 2020, 20:25

A great PR exercise for Qantas.
Helping Australians when they need it.
Qudos for the crew.
With all the cameras I hope to see AJ stepping down from the aircraft when it arrives in AUS!
Leadership from the front.

patagonianworelaud

31st Jan 2020, 21:25

What duty of care does an operator have in regards to crew operating into Wuhan?

I imagine the cabin crew (and pilots) will be wearing company issued masks which in itself is an acknowledgement that an increased risk to their health exists. Can an individual reasonably refuse to crew if that is the case and the company should call for volunteers instead?

Then, having been potentially exposed to the virus - after all the proposed QF exercise is to take people into isolation because they may be infected/contagious – can the crew expect to be quarantined as well?

Why isn’t the RAAF used for this proposed evacuation? After all they sign up in the knowledge they may need to operate in a hostile environment and with the attendant risks – it’s part and parcel of being in the military.

Chris2303

31st Jan 2020, 21:27

Why isn’t the RAAF used for this proposed evacuation? After all they sign up in the knowledge they may need to operate in a hostile environment and with the attendant risks – it’s part and parcel of being in the military.

It was mentioned in NZ that the RNZAF should be doing the job but the reply was that approvals for military airplanes took a looong time compared to approvals for a civilian airplane

gordonfvckingramsay

31st Jan 2020, 21:42

What duty of care does an operator have in regards to crew operating into Wuhan?

Basically there is none required while the government provide the company an out by denying the severity.

From what we've seen recently, airlines are reluctant to acknowledge the threat on either international or domestic flights within Australia. And as incidences of this virus spread to other countries, we will be receiving infected individuals from everywhere, not just China.

Rated De

31st Jan 2020, 21:54

Basically there is none required while the government provide the company an out by denying the severity.

From what we've seen recently, airlines are reluctant to acknowledge the threat on either international or domestic flights within Australia. And as incidences of this virus spread to other countries, we will be receiving infected individuals from everywhere, not just China.

The duty of care is enshrined in statute; clearly.

The Australian government has shown an incredibly lack of duty of care to Australian citizenry by not restricting anything.
The big donors to both sides of politics are most pleased.

In Europe and the US it is the airline unions pushing workplace health and safety, not airline management.
It is not a surprise that airlines are now cancelling China mainland flying for the duty of care is clear and their unions know it.

That the Australian government, airline Qantas and surprisingly the union representing flight crew continue to refute the likelihood of human to human transmission while it is now acknowledged that this does in fact occur:

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery.

This study is the German based one into asymptomatic transmission.
That it is spread without symptoms is a real concern.

Australopithecus

31st Jan 2020, 21:54

The US has this morning banning all visitors who have even been to China recently, let alone direct flights.

Please do not parrot the nonsense that flu is a bigger threat than this particular corona virus. There are several articles today claiming just that, but they all say “for now” and they all are US-centric.

The flu infects from 3% to 11% of the US population annually. It kills just under 1 per thousand. Hence around 8000 deaths in the USA.it has a reproduction rate of around 1.28, which means that on average one person infects 1.28 more people.

THERE ARE FLU VACCINES, and some herd immunity, hence the low total infection rate of 3-11%

Coronavirus has no vaccines, and will not for about six months., and there is zero herd immunity anywhere because this is a novel virus: brand new, not seen before, no defences.

2019 nCoV (catchy name) is at least as infectious as flu, perhaps twice as much with R estimates of 1.8-3.6.
Coupled with the lack of immunity, this virus will travel faster than the flu.

It looks like the mortality rate is at least 2.5%, which means that it will kill around 25/1000.

So if this disease infects only as many people as the flu, it will kill 25 times more people. In the US alone thats >200,000. And thats the sunny estimate. It could actually be worse.

“But hey! Don’t worry yourself, keep spending” seems to be the crux of all of these happy horse**** articles

ON EDIT: READ THIS from the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

dragon man

31st Jan 2020, 21:57

Rated De

31st Jan 2020, 21:59

The US has this morning banning all visitors who have even been to China recently, let alone direct flights.

Please do not parrot the nonsense that flu is a bigger threat than this particular corona virus. There are several articles today claiming just that, but they all say “for now” and they all are US-centric.

The flu infects from 3% to 11% of the US population annually. It kills just under 1 per thousand. Hence around 8000 deaths in the USA.it has a reproduction rate of around 1.28, which means that on average one person infects 1.28 more people.

THERE ARE FLU VACCINES, and some herd immunity, hence the low total infection rate of 3-11%

Coronavirus has no vaccines, and will not for about six months., and there is zero herd immunity anywhere because this is a novel virus: brand new, not seen before, no defences.

2019 nCoV (catchy name) is at least as infectious as flu, perhaps twice as much with R estimates of 1.8-3.6.
Coupled with the lack of immunity, this virus will travel faster than the flu.

It looks like the mortality rate is at least 2.5%, which means that it will kill around 25/1000.

So if this disease infects only as many people as the flu, it will kill 25 times more people. In the US alone thats >200,000. And thats the sunny estimate. It could actually be worse.

“But hey! Don’t worry yourself, keep spending” seems to be the crux of all of these happy horse**** articles

We need to be careful, actually bringing factual discussion risks Ad Hominen attack.
Completely concur, that short of the guillotine nothing will move the political class to give up their benefactors interests. Thus, until such time the door is open come on in.

If R0 is found > 3 then despite what the media think of President Trump, they are protecting their citizenry.
Ironically, in Iran, the government already banned all Chinese arrivals.

Rated De

31st Jan 2020, 22:02

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-confirms-first-cases-coronavirus-countries-ignore-who

Read carefully 43 airlines stop flying to China, Singapore won’t allow in anyone who has traveled to China and America is quarantining anyone who has traveled to Wuhan for 14 days.

No no, Dragon Man we are purveying FUD.
Those airlines that have stopped flying are only doing so for commercial reason is the line (collapsing load factors) touted.
Perhaps in part, but it is also a real awareness of two pertinent points:

Workplace Health and Safety and the Unions pushing back
The very real possibility that with an R0>2.5 this thing could well be a pandemic.

gordonfvckingramsay

31st Jan 2020, 22:14

The duty of care is enshrined in statute; clearly.

The problem here is that the duty of care requires action only where there is a perceived threat which, until our government declares that this is the case, will negate the need for a duty of care. Until that changes we will see our borders remain open. Compounding this is the virtual certainty that we now have potentially thousands of people moving through our country who have had contact with those who may be hosts to this virus.

Rated De

31st Jan 2020, 22:21

The problem here is that the duty of care requires action only where there is a perceived threat which, until our government declares that this is the case, will negate the need for a duty of care. Until that changes we will see our borders remain open. Compounding this is the virtual certainty that we now have potentially thousands of people moving through our country who have had contact with those who may be hosts to this virus.

Completely agree Gordon.

It is showing clearly who the government is concerned about. Hint not the nation.

If it continues to develop it may be that the hand is forced.
Or, if an unfortunate Qantas crew member falls ill.

dragon man

31st Jan 2020, 22:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon

lc_461

31st Jan 2020, 23:04

I think you will find a lot of the airline response in dropping flights to China is largely commercial rather than benevolent at this point in time.
The Chinese government has banned group tours and largely outbound tourism, which I imagine is making up a large amount of passengers generally taking these flights - especially in the CNY high season right now.
If you take away the outbound tourism aspect from China (due to the government restrictions) and the inbound travel aspect from other countries (due to businesses/universities/governments restricting travel for their staff, it's a good scapegoat for airlines to drop services which are almost certainly loss making. ??Load factors both ways dropping off a cliff is already an anecdotal scenario.
That combined with the duty of care aspect for flight crew operating and laying over, and any ground staff that they may directly employ in these foreign stations... a legal issue may begin to arise too.

Australopithecus

31st Jan 2020, 23:20

Re post #21

That study has some pretty farfetched conclusions based solely on the authors' inability to imagine that the coronavirus glycoprotein's mutation is the most likely thing to change about a virus. That they say that the advent of GP120 could only be through a mad scientist experiment that escaped is fanciful, without evidence, and hardly helpful.

Viruses, and especially RNA viruses, change their proteins all the time. That’s why there are seven distinct human coronaviruses. The bulk of the RNA in a virus is used to regulate protein production. GP120 in HIV binds to receptors on the T4 cells, as I recall.

Like SARS, The Wuhan virus apparently* binds to ACE2 receptors on those cells which express that, which are found primarily deep in the lungs, the heart and kidneys. The presence or otherwise of GP120 does not seem to be a thing in allowing membrane fusion of the virus with any other kind of cell as evidenced in any papers that I have read.

Conspiracy theories aren’t helpful. Facebook and Twitter have adopted a policy if flagging these kinds of stories.

pull-up-terrain

31st Jan 2020, 23:31

I reckon Qants won’t cancel any flights to China until university starts back in early March. If you look at the pax on board these flights between Sydney to Shanghai/Beijing (especially between late November to early March), I dare say a very large proportion of them are international students.

Once university starts up again in March, there will be bugger all people flying to/from China and Qantas will have no option other than to cancel flights unless they are willing to lose money.

MickG0105

1st Feb 2020, 00:03

...
2. The very real possibility that with an R0>2.5 this thing could well be a pandemic.

R0 is not a necessarily good indicator of pandemicity. Measles has an R0 of 12-16, seasonal influenza has an R0 of 1.3.

73qanda

1st Feb 2020, 00:05

Mick, That’s an interesting observation to a layman like myself. Why is it that such a high RO doesn’t result in pandemic? Is it to do with established immunity?

Australopithecus

1st Feb 2020, 00:19

R0 is not a necessarily good indicator of pandemicity. Measles has an R0 of 12-16, seasonal influenza has an R0 of 1.3.

Herd immunity, courtesy of vaccinations, renders measles inconsequential, except of course in clusters of fact-resistant flat earthers.

So, yeah, the R value alone doesn’t predict spread except for those diseases for which there are no natural limits. Even then, diseases like SARS were eliminated because of behaviour changes and other factors.

73to91

1st Feb 2020, 00:35

A mate working at Port Botany told me that they had a container vessel arrive earlier in the week, directly from China.

Crew had to stay in sleeping quarters unless they had to interact with staff, if there was interaction, they had to stand 2m apart.

I should have asked if that was Aust Quarantine directions, the company, the union or the captain.

He sent me the following from the union which you may find interesting or not.
Below are just some of the MUA’s responses to the Government’s failure to address adequately, the health and ongoing concerns from the public and Unions to the threat of the Coronavirus on Australia’s Ports.

Paddy Crumlin on ABC PM program last night:
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/coronavirus:-scrutiny-over-australian-transport/11915126

Jake Field, MUA National Training & Safety Officer's radio interview on ABC:
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/newcastle/programs/drive/maritime-concern/11910974

The Illawarra Mercury
https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/6604036/government-disputes-union-claims-of-inadequate-coronavirus-checks-at-ports/

The Newcastle Herald:
https://www.newcastleherald.com.a

AerialPerspective

1st Feb 2020, 00:36

gordonfvckingramsay

1st Feb 2020, 00:43

Maritime union is (rightly so) concerned about a large amount of cargo and a few crew. In stark contrast the aviation unions are tight lipped about a huge number of living, breathing, potential hosts.

should have stayed a yachtie...

SOPS

1st Feb 2020, 02:14

“Certain US officials’ words and actions are neither factual nor appropriate,” China’s foreign affairs ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said in a statement.

“Just as the WHO recommended against travel restrictions, the US rushed to go in the opposite way. Certainly not a gesture of goodwill.”

The above was copied from an article about the virus. China is complaining that airlines are cancelling flights.. they are not showing ‘ goodwill’. With an attitude like that.. it worries me what China my actually be hiding.

dragon man

1st Feb 2020, 02:47

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeboyd/2020/01/27/sudden-free-fall-chinaus-air-traffic/#38996b08208c

An interesting article on numbers of pax’s for US airlines.

Double_Clutch

1st Feb 2020, 02:48

So now, after 10 cases, QF will be stopping mainland China flights....

dragon man

1st Feb 2020, 02:59

https://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-to-suspend-services-to-mainland-china-from-february-9-20200201-p53wtv.html

Why wait till the 9th?

Ollie Onion

1st Feb 2020, 03:08

They are not stopping because of the Health and Safety aspect but for the reason that Singapore, UAE and USA have just put a 14day Quarantine in place for any foreign passport holders who have recently visited china. So obviously from a logistics point of you this would cripple all other operations for Qantas. They are taking there time to wind down the services and get the crew and aircraft in the correct placesl

dragon man

1st Feb 2020, 03:10

normanton

1st Feb 2020, 03:16

SilverSleuth

1st Feb 2020, 03:17

I Honestly think Qantas and Virgin should be suspending flights between Australia Hong Kong also. Hong Kong has refused to close its border so there is still movement there. Does any crew seriously want to go to Hong Kong atm?

normanton

1st Feb 2020, 03:19

Does any crew seriously want to go to Hong Kong atm?

Not me.

Stand up for yourself. it's just not worth the risk with kids at home.

Eclan

1st Feb 2020, 04:05

hoss

1st Feb 2020, 04:09

Has anyone told Scotty from marketing about FORDEC or GRADE?

normanton

1st Feb 2020, 04:12

The Rat will now suspend flights to mainland china (https://7news.com.au/news/health/qantas-to-halt-flights-to-mainland-china-c-675902).

Their two flights are a drop in the ocean compared to the hordes coming in on Chinese carriers. I meant "carriers" in the airline sense of course, not the disease sense.
How ridiculous is it. If I was Chinese I'd be buying a 1 way ticket out of the country. Oh look, thanks Australia.

Morrison needs to grow some balls.

C441

1st Feb 2020, 04:22

Why wait till the 9th?
I did hear this morning that they have been reluctant to stop flights until there is a chance to send a flight to Wuhan. If they were to cancel services before then, the Chinese may also 'cancel' any plan to get Australians out of Wuhan.

AerialPerspective

1st Feb 2020, 04:40

How ridiculous is it. If I was Chinese I'd be buying a 1 way ticket out of the country. Oh look, thanks Australia.

Morrison needs to grow some balls.

Morrison is a clown who is too busy on his knees praying to his invisible friend while surreptitiously trying to subordinate the government and institutions to his happy-clappy speaking in tongues cult, he's a Christian fascist. He doesn't care because he's convinced the rapture is coming.

We used to be in trouble because there were some idiots in government who stuffed things up, now it's in the charge of a dangerous cult-follower who is trying to change this country into something it has never been and most of us don't want, a theocracy.

normanton

1st Feb 2020, 05:18

Rated De

1st Feb 2020, 05:26

In other words putting $$$ before welfare of the crews and public.

Their (QF) media release makes it loud and clear, they care little for the pathology of this thing and any "damage" to their crew is cost of business.
May we suggest a slightly asymmetric agenda?

It has been a long held ambition to not only water down the foreign ownership provisions in the QSA1992, but also target a complete merge.
It may be in holding out they are "friendly" prey for a state carrier looking for expansion. Wouldn't that be a "transformation"?

Unfortunately, although tin eared chronically myopic and not terribly sharp beyond self interest, Morrison has had to move,
Australia's political class have demonstrated utter contempt in two stand out cases:
1. Bushfires
2. nCov

Until the lamposts in Canberra have the political establishment swinging from them, better off watching TV.

SOPS

1st Feb 2020, 05:35

What stops people going to Hong Kong and getting on a flight from there?

Rated De

1st Feb 2020, 05:35

Some good news?

Looking at the data trends, and today's figures of 11,374 worldwide cases gives me pause.

The trend over the last two weeks predicts that the current reported cases should be more like 12,400 today.

What has changed? Either control measures like masks and isolation actually are starting to slow the spread, or other factors like the shortage of testing kits and/or political editing is skewing the numbers.

The supply chain would be under enormous pressure.
There must be limits to supply of testing kits, doctors and laboratory resources.

Hopefully, it isn't anything more nefarious than good luck at play.

dragon man

1st Feb 2020, 05:46

He must be reading pprune.

Effective 1st Feb anyone from Mainland china banned from Aus excluding citizens. Citizens required 14 day isolation upon arrival.

That should be enough for the Chinese carriers to stop flights.

Sorry, I haven’t seen this but if it’s correct then how are the crew flying out of Wuhan not been quarantined?

normanton

1st Feb 2020, 05:59

dragon man

1st Feb 2020, 06:01

Many thanks.

Rated De

1st Feb 2020, 06:16

"As of today, all travellers arriving out of mainland China not just Hubei province, as has been the case up until now, being asked and required to self-isolate for a period of 14 days from the time they leave mainland China," Mr Morrison said.
"To substantially reduce the volume of travellers coming from mainland China, they recommend additional border measures be implemented, deny entry to Australia for people who have left or transited through mainland China from 1 February, today."
Mr Morrison said all Chief Medical Officers of all the states and territories and the Commonwealth met today to discuss the changes.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-infection-melbourne-woman-becomes-fourth-in-victoria-to-develop-illness/4390358e-76f1-4170-81e0-2e4fead1567b

Dollars short and weeks late.

Scotty from marketing had a scary dream, distant on the horizon shrouded in fog...a guillotine
Whatever one thinks of President Trump, what the USA did stepped around the weasel words coming out of the WHO and dragged idiots like Morrison into line.

As for Fort Fumble, their press release is smugly indifferent, they couldn't care about the welfare of their crew, their passengers or their country.

Sunfish

1st Feb 2020, 06:21

According to the ABC this evening , entry from China now only to australians and permanent residents returning and 14 day quarantine. Flights suspended.

witwiw

1st Feb 2020, 06:29

No less than GT has the scoop about QF on his website. I think Ch9 and the ABC would have a bigger following, though.

In it he says the RAAF will be transporting the Wu-flu evacuees to Christmas Island. A C17 and a C130 flew the medical teams out of Darwin today to Christmas so there may be an element of truth in his article.

Not sure about his claim "While the 747 can land at Christmas Island the runway is not grooved and at this time of the year subject to heavy rain."

Rated De

1st Feb 2020, 07:22

According to the ABC this evening , entry from China now only to australians and permanent residents returning and 14 day quarantine. Flights suspended.

"Self Quarantine" 100% adherence assured.../sarc

MickG0105

1st Feb 2020, 07:24

Mick, That’s an interesting observation to a layman like myself. Why is it that such a high RO doesn’t result in pandemic? Is it to do with established immunity?
For measles, yes, immunity via the MMR vaccine is a, if not the, key factor.

It's also important to understand what R0 actually represents. It is a measure of potential transmissibility. Importantly, it does not tell you anything about how fast a disease will spread.

And you need to remember that R0 is an average. So if a virus has an R0 of 2 this could mean that every single infected person passes the virus on to two other people. Or, it could also mean that one infected person is what is known in epidemiology as a “super-spreader” and that one person infects 100 people, while 49 other infected people infect no one. You get an R0 of 2 in both scenarios. However, the consistent 1:2 infection scenario and the super-spreader scenario have radically different implications for what will happen during an outbreak. Other coronaviral diseases, such as SARS and MERS, involved super-spreader events. We don't have enough data to say the same for 2019-nCoV.

Australopithecus

1st Feb 2020, 07:36

The super-spreader hypothesis is faulty. Sure, there be such people who shed virus like a fountain, but that theory discounts the plain vanilla person who infects two or three other people the same way that the other coronaviruses (common cold) get spread. Super spreaders are likely rare, amd add a small fraction to the underlying R0 value rather than be responsible for the bulk of the infections.

The super spreader theory also ignores the effects of one host be in close quarters with lots of other people. Anyone can be a super spreader given enough proximity to enough people. One bright spot is the Chinese habit of wearing a mask when ill to prevent the unchecked cloud of virus in every exhalation. That particular habit is something that the government would be wise to promote on TV etc.

Craney

1st Feb 2020, 07:52

Are we out of step here? Shouldn’t all flights to and from China be stopped? Interested in all thoughts, not a Qantas bashing thread.

<link to zerohedge>

Zero Hedge aren't the best source to be relying on... they had their Twitter account (600,000 followers) terminated yesterday for pushing coronavirus conspiracy therories.

dragon man

1st Feb 2020, 07:57

Zero Hedge aren't the best source to be relying on... they had their Twitter account (600,000 followers) terminated yesterday for pushing coronavirus conspiracy therories.

Because they identified someone I believe, however I’m open to any other views and opinions.

PoppaJo

1st Feb 2020, 08:04

I wonder how they are going to handle the influx of CZ flights which are about to land.

These flights are largely tourism, so largely these people need to be sent back, however there ain’t any flights to send them back on, all flights cancelled from their mainland carriers that are not in the air. I guess a few thousand Chinese nationals will be living in Airport Quarantine rooms tonight.

Asturias56

1st Feb 2020, 08:05

Rated De

1st Feb 2020, 08:05

One bright spot is the Chinese habit of wearing a mask when ill to prevent the unchecked cloud of virus in every exhalation. That particular habit is something that the government would be wise to promote on TV etc.

In many ways, once the perils of unfettered trade and travel seemed excessive.
Perhaps nature is telling us a little more loudly.
In times past serious viruses were fought with isolation and eventually defeated.
Perhaps better hygiene at a personal level, which is horrible in certain countries, will when combined with travel restrictions help out this time.

MickG0105

1st Feb 2020, 08:59

The super-spreader hypothesis is faulty.
In epidemiology super-spreaders are not a hypothesis; they are known and documented phenomenon dating back to 'Typhoid Mary'. Super spreader events have been documented in both major previous coronavirus outbreaks - SARS and MERS.

Have a read of Stein's 2010 'Super-spreaders in infectious diseases' or Chun's 2016 'Understanding and Modeling the Super-spreading Events of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak in Korea' if you want to inform yourself.

If you want to argue the toss take it up with your local School of Epidemiology.

Australopithecus

1st Feb 2020, 09:06

In epidemiology super-spreaders are not a hypothesis; they are known and documented phenomenon dating back to 'Typhoid Mary'. Super spreader events have been documented in both major previous coronavirus outbreaks - SARS and MERS.

Have a read of Stein's 2010 'Super-spreaders in infectious diseases' or Chun's 2016 'Understanding and Modeling the Super-spreading Events of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak in Korea' if you want to inform yourself.

If you want to argue the toss take it up with your local School of Epidemiology.

I will, thanks for the references,

Dannyboy39

1st Feb 2020, 09:13

What I don’t understand is why VIR are still operating LHR-PVG when there’s a do not travel notice out from FCO?

When SSH closed, airlines were forced to repatriate passengers back at their cost?

slats11

1st Feb 2020, 09:16

Authorities have been very slow off the mark.

There was a reason why China implemented extraordinary measures several weeks ago. They understood the consequences of exponential growth.

I have been following this guy for the last week. His model has predicted the outcome very accurately so far.

https://twitter.com/matt_barrie

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1070x1196/screen_shot_2020_02_01_at_21_08_57_cf456600a7510afc65fd0a1fe ed40441390ab7d0.png

Understand also that China has cut back testing due to a shortage of test kits.

As of earlier today
11,860 conformed cases
17,988 additional suspected cases
259 died
243 recovered (fewer recovered than have died)

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1490x170/screen_shot_2020_02_01_at_21_13_57_e226197e5adb59df60625614e 1a8b9d237b0642d.png

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Veruka Salt

1st Feb 2020, 09:44

It's ridiculous. Mainland China / Hong Kong should be stopped effective immediately.

The government should be banning ALL flights from China and Hong Kong!

Which moron do we have to put in place as PM to get some decision making happening around here.

Why include Hong Kong, Normanton? At last glance, Hong Kong & Australia had a broadly similar number of confirmed cases. Hong Kong imposed restricted entry access to mainland Chinese visitors several days ago; Australia has only just commenced it. Your chances of catching the virus here in Hong Kong are probably not much different to your risk in the metropolitan parts of Australia.

WingNut60

1st Feb 2020, 09:55

Why include Hong Kong, Normanton? At last glance, Hong Kong & Australia had a broadly similar number of confirmed cases. Hong Kong imposed restricted entry access to mainland Chinese visitors several days ago; Australia has only just commenced it. Your chances of catching the virus here in Hong Kong are probably not much different to your risk in the metropolitan parts of Australia.

Why differentiate Hong Kong, Veruka?
I thought that Hong Kong is China.

Veruka Salt

1st Feb 2020, 10:02

Why differentiate Hong Kong, Veruka?
I thought that Hong Kong is China.

it shares a border WingNut, but not free access.

normanton

1st Feb 2020, 10:04

slats11

1st Feb 2020, 10:06

Originally Posted by MickG0105 images/buttons/viewpost.gif (showthread.php?p=10676741#post10676741)
R0 is not a necessarily good indicator of pandemicity. Measles has an R0 of 12-16, seasonal influenza has an R0 of 1.3.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/mathematical-models~mathematical-models-models.htm~mathematical-models-2.2.htm
The basic reproduction number (R0) is the reproduction number when there is no immunity from past exposures or vaccination, nor any deliberate intervention in disease transmission.

R0 is a theoretical expression of the infectivity of the organism per se. Measles virus has a high R0, hence we immunise against it and there are no pandemics (although isolated outbreaks where vaccination rates are lower). Influenza has a fairly low R0, but spreads quickly as the virus mutates (changes) each year meaning little immunity, because the vaccine is only partly protective, and because many people chose not to vaccinate.

The latest paper suggests this virus has a R0 of at least 4. That is a disaster with no immunity, and a vaccine perhaps 12 months away.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#reproHow contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person.

R0 is the number of uninfected people each infected person will infect on average. While R0 > 1, outbreak increases. Eventually something happens - quarantine, vaccine, or simply most people have already been exposed and can't be re-infected. R0 falls below 1, and the outbreak starts to recede.

A more recent study is indicating a Ro as high as 4.08.[22]. This value substantially exceeds WHO's estimate (made on Jan. 23) of between 1.4 and 2.5[[url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-13]13], and is also higher than recent estimates between 3.6 and 4.0 and between 2.24 to 3.58 [[url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-23]23]. Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5 [[url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-5]5][[url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-6]6][[url=https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-7]7]

Based on these numbers, on average every case of the Novel Coronavirus would create 3 to 4 new cases.

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Finally, the fatality rate for 'flu is very low - perhaps 0.01%
The fatality rate for this is at least 2%, but is almost certainly higher.
Early during an epidemic, the fatality rate is lowered by the rapid growth of newly infected people (who have not yet had time to die).

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#ref-22)
Note that the mortality within Wahun city (the epicentre where the data is more robust as it has been going longer), the mortality is already 5.5%
During the SARS outbreak (another coronavirus), initial data suggested a mortality less than 4%. This was revised to 6-7%. Then revised to 12-14%. People remember that it ended at 12%, but forget early data suggested < 4%.
With MERS (a much smaller coronavirus outbreak), the mortality was 35%. But the current coronavirus outbreak is already orders of magnitude larger than MERS.

And that is why we have belatedly closed the border to Chinese visitors. And that is why it was too little too late

Veruka Salt

1st Feb 2020, 10:07

Because Hong Kong is China.

Not exactly.

Australopithecus

1st Feb 2020, 10:48

"One bright spot is the Chinese habit of wearing a mask when ill to prevent the unchecked cloud of virus in every exhalation. That particular habit is something that the government would be wise to promote on TV etc"

no evidence it helps at all - far better to wash your hands regularly

I wrote that based on this study, which suggests that masks do contain the spread of viruses. Not convinced about the use of masks for healthy people though.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712%2808%2901008-4/fulltext

Double_Clutch

1st Feb 2020, 11:34

What will prevent people from “visiting” Hong Kong, and then flying into Australia?

MickG0105

1st Feb 2020, 12:03

The basic reproduction number (R0) is the reproduction number when there is no immunity from past exposures or vaccination, nor any deliberate intervention in disease transmission.

Yeah, thanks, you're telling me nothing about R0 I don't already know.

The latest paper suggests this virus has a R0 of at least 4.
You do understand that R0 is essentially population/demographic/behaviour specific, right? That's why we're seeing a range of R0s. R0 will inevitably be higher in the nascent population, that's why the estimate for Wuhan is at the high end of the range.

As I said in a separate post, R0 says nothing about speed of spread. And R0 says nothing about the means of contagion or the vector.

In other words, as I said right from the set to, R0 is not necessarily a good indicator of pandemicity. R0 is not destiny, it is not the same as R (actual transmission rate). It is a measure of a disease’s potential.

That is a disaster with no immunity, and a vaccine perhaps 12 months away.
(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro)
No, it is not a disaster because immunity and vaccines are not the only method of containing or curtailing the spread of a disease.

We know that 2019-nCov appears to spread the same way as SARS, that is, close person-to-person contact by respiratory droplet spread. And we know that basic infection control practices, such as hand washing, are very effective in containing that sort of spread. It is worth noting that SARS wasn't contained through the deployment of a vaccine (the SARS vaccine was never deployed), SARS was contained through the deployment of basic infection control practices.

During the SARS outbreak (another coronavirus), initial data suggested a mortality less than 4%. This was revised to 6-7%. Then revised to 12-14%. People remember that it ended at 12%, but forget early data suggested < 4%.

I don't which people remember SARS having a mortality rate of 12%?! There were 8,098 recorded cases resulting in 774 deaths for a mortality rate of 9.55%, or at least that's the way I remember it.

And while we're remembering things, remember that it took about five months for the WHO to declare SARS a global health threat. It's taken them one month this time around. China has reacted faster and more effectively. The global containment and counter-effort has been deployed faster and more effectively.

With MERS (a much smaller coronavirus outbreak), the mortality was 35%. But the current coronavirus outbreak is already orders of magnitude larger than MERS.
... already orders of magnitude larger ...?!!

Do you understand what an 'order of magnitude' is?

The number of 2019-nCoV cases (~12,000) is currently not yet one (singular) order of magnitude larger than the number of MERS cares (~2,000).

slats11

1st Feb 2020, 12:47

Originally Posted by slats11 images/buttons/viewpost.gif (australia-new-zealand-pacific/629323-flights-china-post10676979.html#post10676979)
The basic reproduction number (R0) is the reproduction number when there is no immunity from past exposures or vaccination, nor any deliberate intervention in disease transmission.
Yeah, thanks, you're telling me nothing about R0 I don't already know.

I suspect that you are well informed about R and R0. But my point was that other readers may be falsely reassured by the fact measles is not out of control despite its R0 of 14, and the explanation for this is immunisation.

Originally Posted by slats11 images/buttons/viewpost.gif (australia-new-zealand-pacific/629323-flights-china-post10676979.html#post10676979)
That is a disaster with no immunity, and a vaccine perhaps 12 months away.
No, it is not a disaster because immunity and vaccines are not the only method of containing or curtailing the spread of a disease.

OK. Lets revisit this debate in a week

SARS was contained through the deployment of basic infection control practices.

Sure. But that hasn't worked this time has it?
2019-nCoV has already infected far more people in a little over a month than did SARS in 7 months.
Cities were not locked down and borders closed for SARS.
In the city of Huanggang, people are housebound and 1 family member is allowed outside even 2nd day to get necessities. That didn't happen with SARS.

But if it makes you happier to say it is SARS...... then that's fine.

I don't which people remember SARS having a mortality rate of 12%?! There were 8,098 recorded cases resulting in 774 deaths for a mortality rate of 9.55%, or at least that's the I remember it.

Estimates of SARS death rates revised upward | CIDRAP (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates-sars-death-rates-revised-upward)
May 7, 2003 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) today estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%, significantly higher than previous estimates. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%.

In the early stages of the SARS epidemic, health officials estimated the mortality rate at less than 4%. More recently, officials have cited rates in the 6% to 7% range. Today's SARS figures from the WHO—6,903 cumulative cases and 495 deaths—point to a case-fatality ratio of 7.2%. But WHO officials note that this calculation underestimates the rate, since some currently ill patients will die of the disease.

WHO officials observed that calculating the case-fatality ratio for a disease outbreak is difficult while the outbreak is still evolving. The true ratio cannot be determined until the outbreak is over, when the total numbers of deaths and recoveries are known.

The point is the mortality rate appears to increases over time due to the lag between getting sick and dying.
The final SARS mortality is still disputed due to concerns about the completeness of the mainland Chinese dataset. Maybe it was 10%, maybe 12, maybe 14. It was almost certainly between the range of 10-14% anyway.
MERS was accepted to be 35%
This is the 3rd recent coronavirus outbreak. To accept the current 2% figure is very optimistic. Especially when the data from Wuhan (where the epidemic has been unfolding longer) suggests a mortality of 5.5% (and this too will go up).

Do you understand what an 'order of magnitude' is?

Umm, do you add a zero? Is that right?

So MERS was perhaps 2,494 (858 deaths, fatality 35%)

It is estimated that the number of infected in Wuhan alone could be greater than 75,000. That was the calculation on Tuesday - with continued exponential growth in the 4 days since then.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3048518/coronavirus-case-load-and-death-toll-china-rise-epicentre-hubei-province
Thats just Wuhan city. What about the rest of the province? What about the rest of China?
You realise they have run out of test kits in Wuhan
You realise Indonesia doesn't have a reported case - because it currently has no testing.

So Mick, by what order of magnitude do you believe 2019-nCoV exceeds MERS? Because I suspect it is close to 2.

Eclan

1st Feb 2020, 12:50

"One bright spot is the Chinese habit of wearing a mask when ill to prevent the unchecked cloud of virus in every exhalation. That particular habit is something that the government would be wise to promote on TV etc"

no evidence it helps at all - far better to wash your hands regularly
While not airtight for inhaling and exhaling, the mask does physically stop the movement of larger droplets when sneezing or coughing so yeah it does help to an extent.

MickG0105

1st Feb 2020, 12:58

I have been following this guy for the last week. His model has predicted the outcome very accurately so far.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1070x1196/screen_shot_2020_02_01_at_21_08_57_cf456600a7510afc65fd0a1fe ed40441390ab7d0.png

His model is going to continue diverging from actual cases, more and more so each day.

For R0 = β * c * D, where
β = transmission probability
c = number of contacts
D = average time spent infectious
he is using constants.

And we know that the real world doesn't work that way. As soon as health authorities understand what they're dealing with and start implementing appropriate infection control practices, β declines. Same same with c; simple population awareness, public infection control practices, movement restrictions and quarantines drive the number of contacts down. As a result R (actual) declines over time.

slats11

1st Feb 2020, 13:04

Lets hope the model diverges over time.

But have a read of that Lancet paper calculating 75k cases in Wuhan as of Tuesday 28th.

And lets see what happens when it gets loose in India. Because if China can't control it, what chance India?

SOPS

1st Feb 2020, 13:19

I am starting to think ‘conspiracy theory’

Everything was good.. until it was not

Flights from Australia could continue .. until they could not.

Flights from China to Australia were fine... until they were not.

Something is not adding up... a lot of knee jerking? Or we know something you don’t?

MickG0105

1st Feb 2020, 13:32

I suspect that you are well informed about R and R0. But my point was that other readers may be falsely reassured by the fact measles is not out of control despite its R0 of 14, and the explanation for this is immunisation.

OK. Lets revisit this debate in a week

Sure. But that hasn't worked this time has it?
2019-nCoV has already infected far more people in a little over a month than did SARS in 7 months.
Cities were not locked down and borders closed for SARS.
In the city of Huanggang, people are housebound and 1 family member is allowed outside even 2nd day to get necessities. That didn't happen with SARS.

But if it makes you happier to say it is SARS...... then that's fine.

Estimates of SARS death rates revised upward | CIDRAP (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates-sars-death-rates-revised-upward)

The point is the mortality rate appears to increases over time due to the lag between getting sick and dying.
The final SARS mortality is still disputed due to concerns about the completeness of the mainland Chinese dataset. Maybe it was 10%, maybe 12, maybe 14. It was almost certainly between the range of 10-14% anyway.
MERS was accepted to be 35%
This is the 3rd recent coronavirus outbreak. To accept the current 2% figure is very optimistic. Especially when the data from Wuhan (where the epidemic has been unfolding longer) suggests a mortality of 5.5% (and this too will go up).

Umm, do you add a zero? Is that right?

So MERS was perhaps 2,494 (858 deaths, fatality 35%)

It is estimated that the number of infected in Wuhan alone could be greater than 75,000. That was the calculation on Tuesday - with continued exponential growth in the 4 days since then.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3048518/coronavirus-case-load-and-death-toll-china-rise-epicentre-hubei-province
Thats just Wuhan city. What about the rest of the province? What about the rest of China?
You realise they have run out of test kits in Wuhan
You realise Indonesia doesn't have a reported case - because it currently has no testing.

So Mick, by what order of magnitude do you believe 2019-nCoV exceeds MERS? Because I suspect it is close to 2.
That 2003 article on SARS mortality rate is well and truly trumped by the final WHO stats - 8,098 cases, 774 deaths. Your point on mortality rates is not lost on me; they invariably move over the onset period and not always up. One of the issues is that people tend to pull data from all sorts of places. The WHO is reference authority (unless you're a tinfoil hatter, and you don't strike me as such).

And yes, regarding orders of magnitude, you add a zero on the right or move the decimal place left. So 200,000 is two orders of magnitude higher than 2,000. We're not there yet by any stretch of the imagination.

The WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control puts the total infections for Wuhan at less than 5,000. The Northeastern University's Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems predicts Wuhan might be as high as 25,000. WHO CCIDEC puts total infections elsewhere in China at less than 10,000. The total China figure outside of Wuhan might be higher but not by the same factor as Wuhan so maybe 30,000.

It's early days but we haven't seen any deaths outside of China yet. So, glass half full. And China being China, and having previously dealt with SARS, is probably the only country in the world outside of maybe North Korea that can apply extraordinarily stringent public health measures and restrictions. So, we'll see.

A wild card is seasonality. We don't have any real feel for whether 2019-nCoV has a seasonality component.

Any old how, let's just revisit this in a week and see where we stand. And let's stick to WHO confirmed cases and deaths.

Oh, and as an addendum, while we're wringing out hands over this, 2019/2020 seasonal influenza in the US has killed about 8,000 people (at the rate of 250 people dying of it per day for the week between 16 - 22 January).

slats11

1st Feb 2020, 13:43

When something doesn't add up, its usually because you don't have all the facts

An account of life in Wuhan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZH2oWGrh_OI

This is why China locked down cities
This is why China have deployed 10,000 extra doctors to Wuhan city
This is why people in Huanggang are confined to their houses
This is why Apple and Starbucks have closed their stores in China
This is why China have severely curtailed CNY celebrations
This is why China have delayed the start of the school / university year
This is why China is closed for business
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/at-least-two-thirds-of-china-s-economy-to-stay-closed-next-week

Now, does Australia have that stipulated 90-day minimum of fuel imports? No, no actually we have 18 days petrol, 22 days diesel, and 23 days Jet.
Well then, does Australia still have a domestic oil refining capability? Ooops.

BIZZYBOY

1st Feb 2020, 15:57

Are we out of step here? Shouldn’t all flights to and from China be stopped? Interested in all thoughts, not a Qantas bashing thread.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/6000-quarantined-italian-cruise-ship-due-virus-scare-russia-closes-border-china

Currently no restrictions for Private Jets. Who is tracking those that come into the UK?

kiwi grey

1st Feb 2020, 19:14

It was mentioned in NZ that the RNZAF should be doing the job but the reply was that approvals for military airplanes took a looong time compared to approvals for a civilian airplane
Also, the only vaguely suitable airframe is the RNZAF B757.

These are not fitted with winglets and are relatively short-legged. At least one refuelling stop would be required between Wuhan and NZ: arranging this would be problematic, I think
Maximum seating is about 200, so if you're going to put some medics on board to provide in-flight assistance, you're not going to extract many 'Corona Virus Refugees'

The Air NZ B777-300ER is an altogether better choice

Martin_Baker

1st Feb 2020, 21:01

https://www.smh.com.au/national/qantas-to-suspend-services-to-mainland-china-from-february-9-20200201-p53wtv.html

Why wait till the 9th?

Because there are more than 30,000 Chinese students due to arrive soon at the University of Sydney and University of NSW. They want to get them here before the borders close in time for the start of semester. Full fee paying international $tudent$ are highly lucrative.

Source: Daily Telegraph, 01 Feb 20, pg 3

Green.Dot

1st Feb 2020, 21:12

Because there are more than 30,000 Chinese students due to arrive soon at the University of Sydney and University of NSW. They want to get them here before the borders close in time for the start of semester. Full fee paying international $tudent$ are highly lucrative.

Source: Daily Telegraph, 01 Feb 20, pg 3

Oh yes, that makes sense. Make some short term $$ gains, long term is somebody else’s problem. Didn’t know they made beds big enough to fit the government and all their buddies in

Martin_Baker

1st Feb 2020, 21:19

Oh yes, that makes sense. Make some short term $$ gains, long term is somebody else’s problem. Didn’t know they made beds big enough to fit the government and all their buddies in
Further in that article:
Students from China make up almost a third of the 730,000 foreigners studying in Australia, and are therefore responsible for a large chunk of the $30 billion the tertiary education sector earns from international students.

slats11

1st Feb 2020, 23:29

Continued exponential growth

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections

Despite Australian being a relatively small country, we are the highest number of cases outside China for a country that is some distance from China. We have the same number of cases as USA & Canada combined.

The only countries higher than Australia are countries that are very close to or border China

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Joker89

2nd Feb 2020, 00:38

Further in that article:
Students from China make up almost a third of the 730,000 foreigners studying in Australia, and are therefore responsible for a large chunk of the $30 billion the tertiary education sector earns from international students.

if they aren’t permanent residents they won’t be let in right?

Ex FSO GRIFFO

2nd Feb 2020, 00:40

I wonder what the 'arrangements' are for the necessary Flight / Cabin Crews of the aircraft, both 'civilian' and RAAF (?) who are slotted to transport those who elect to come back, Darwin to Christmas Is.?

Do they also 'volunteer' to sit it out in quarantine for a couple of weeks?

Just curious is all....

Cheers

Martin_Baker

2nd Feb 2020, 00:48

MickG0105

2nd Feb 2020, 00:56

Continued exponential growth

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections

Okey doke, slats, so the data that you are looking at there does not evidence exponential growth, certainly not over the last week at least. The growth MAY have shown some evidence of exponentiality at the outset but it appears to be resolving to simple linear growth for both infections and deaths, particularly over the last week.

Look at the two graphs; notice how the plot is resolving from an initial upward curve to a much straighter line? That's not what you see with exponental growth.

What you are looking from say the 25th onwards is in fact a declining linear change in the infections from initially around daily growth of 40 per cent down to 22 per cent over the last two days. You're seeing something similar with the number of deaths and the fatality rate; since the 25th the fatality rate has fallen from 2.8-ish per cent down to a smidge over 2 per cent.

Now, there's always a potential issue looking at data samples for time periods that are shorter than the incubation period, so let's just wait and see.

Bottom line though, that's not exponential growth (or if it is it is so weakly exponential as to approximate linear).

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 01:13

I think we would both acknowledge confirmed cases are exponential rather than linear.We differ on how exponential.

https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380

Nothing linear about that

Thats confirmed cases where authorities have acknowledged they have outstripped the ability to confirm.

So how many unconfirmed cases? Some suggesting 5,000. Some people suggesting 25,000. Some suggesting 75,000. nothing linear about any of these estimates.

BlackPanther

2nd Feb 2020, 01:22

QFA6031 (VH-OEE) just departed Sydney for Hong Kong. The mission has begun.

MickG0105

2nd Feb 2020, 01:35

I think we would both acknowledge confirmed cases are exponential rather than linear.We differ on how exponential.

https://www.scmp.com/asia
2600 new cases for Saturday.
Total confirmed 14,380

Nothing linear about that

I'm not going to argue about the meaning of widely accepted mathematical and statistical terms.

2600 new cases on top of 11,780 cases the day prior is an increase of 22%. It is exactly the same growth rate of 22% as exhibited the day before that in the Worldometer data. That's linear!

The daily growth rates for confirmed infections for the 28th, 29th and 30th were 32%, 29% and 26%. Note how the daily growth rate is declining? That's not exponential growth!

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 02:17

OK. Mick. I might leave it there. The truth is we don't really know, and we will agree to disagree.

One of us will be closer to the truth, and frankly I hope it is you.

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1223639844829769734?s=20
This video appears authentic. Records 8 deaths (3% of the official total fatality rate) in just 5 minutes in one part of one hospital.

*Lancer*

2nd Feb 2020, 02:32

Number of new confirmed cases may just reflect the maximum testing rate.

Australopithecus

2nd Feb 2020, 02:33

MickG0105

2nd Feb 2020, 02:55

You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including

a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.

early days still.

Reported cases on top, deaths below
My first comment addressed the week's data to 1 February. In any event I acknowledged that there could be some issues with reviewing a small data sample and that we should wait and see.

My point was that what the full data set currently shows does not look exponential growth. And it's just misinformed to say that it does. And it's that sort of misinformation that is unhelpful in dealing with these sort of outbreaks. Underplaying the threat is certainly dangerous but so to is whipping up hysteria.

Number of new confirmed cases may just reflect the maximum testing rate.Or it could reflect the maximum daily administrative output for whomever is entering the data. It could be plenty of things.

Eclan

2nd Feb 2020, 03:50

You guys are arguing about a three day sample in which several factors could be at play including

a refining of the rate value based on the larger numbers
a shortage of test kits, especially outside of Wuhan, and including none in Indonesia and Philippines before Friday
a reluctance to report
beneficial effects of infection control.

early days still.

You, Mick et al, are ALL arguing about something which is described in accordance with the wishes of the CPC who will NEVER tell the truth. Why waste your keystrokes? Chinese culture is paying for either an indulgence in eating raw bat and other things not meant to be consumed or a haphazard approach to their bio-warfare program safety. Take your pick.

What I'm more interested in knowing is how many of the Wuhan escapees who got out before the gate was shut are now in Oz.

j3pipercub

2nd Feb 2020, 03:52

I sincerely hope that this isn’t a case of 3.6 roentgen in an infection sense due lack of test kits...

j3

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 05:01

What I'm more interested in knowing is how many of the Wuhan escapees who got out before the gate was shut are now in Oz.

Good question.For all intent and purpose, you can disregard the number in Hubei and Wuhan. They have run out of test kits and the number of infected has gone beyond the ability of the health system to diagnose and process, and that is assuming they’re not hiding the numbers.

The number in China but outside Hubei is the important thing. They can measure this, and person to person spread is well established. At present these numbers are doubling every two days. It is out of control. Despite the heads up from Wuhan

i have not seen any reason to believe the same will not apply outside China once person to person spread has become established.

And we have plenty from Wuhan. Eating out and catching flights with not a care in the world.

vhtae

2nd Feb 2020, 06:25

I would assume that direct Cargo flights would be cancelled as well?

Stickshift3000

2nd Feb 2020, 06:26

Chinese culture is paying for either an indulgence in eating raw bat and other things not meant to be consumed or a haphazard approach to their bio-warfare program safety. Take your pick.

More likely that bats (either wild or in captivity awaiting being cooked & eaten) have transmitted the virus to humans through faecal matter and poor human hygiene practices.

Bats are known to be very good virus reservoirs. There are many historic cases in Australia of bats spreading hantavirus (and other pathogens) through faecal matter into horse water troughs, which subsequently killed the horses. Obviously when viruses inevitably mutate some mutations can be far more deadly to humans.

On eyre

2nd Feb 2020, 09:47

Not to trivialise the situation but a caller on Macca’s Australia All-over this morning suggested the virus should be given a common name - since Wuhan and Hubei were central to it’s origin he suggested it be named the WooHoo virus.

Eclan

2nd Feb 2020, 10:15

More likely that bats (either wild or in captivity awaiting being cooked & eaten) have transmitted the virus to humans through faecal matter and poor human hygiene practices.

Bats are known to be very good virus reservoirs. There are many historic cases in Australia of bats spreading hantavirus (and other pathogens) through faecal matter into horse water troughs, which subsequently killed the horses. Obviously when viruses inevitably mutate some mutations can be far more deadly to humans.

Yes I'm sure if you mess around with bat **** you'll also get sick but there's a lot of information out there that indicates they were also EATING bats and other animals from the food hall, market, whatever, which weren't really up to scratch and now they all have a disease.

Stickshift3000

2nd Feb 2020, 11:36

Deep frying a bat will easily kill the sh!t out of any virus... just saying.

PoppaJo

2nd Feb 2020, 11:54

I would assume that direct Cargo flights would be cancelled as well?
China Eastern and Air China still operating so the majority of freight will still be going I assume with these guys underneath.

Only China Southern, Xiamen are out of of now, and QF still a week to go

There is a few token direct cargo flights weekly from Sydney.

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 12:22

Wuhan city and Hubei province are likely dysfunctional, with a severe shortage of test kits and with a health system so overwhelmed that it no longer has the ability to diagnose and process new cases. Although Hubei reports 9,074 confirmed cases, total cases have been estimated to be 75,000.

Hence there is no point reviewing the data from Hubei. No one likely knows what is happening there anymore.

Likewise, there is little point looking at the total data as the vast majority of cases are still in Hubei (i.e. the total data is compromised by the uncertainty regarding Hubei).

Instead, it makes sense to look at the data from other mainland provinces. The epidemic is sufficiently established that there will be person-to-person spread, but the provinces should still have the ability to collect accurate data. We all accept Eclan's point that the data is subject to political interference. However we only have the data we have.

Anyway I looked at 7 different provinces, and looked at the number of cases reported at 0002 UTC 1st Feb, and compared it to the number of cases reported at 1021 UTC 2nd Feb (i.e. 34 hours later). On average over these 7 provinces, cases increased by 136% (from 2014 to 2731).

Put another way, 1/4 of cases now were not cases 34 hours ago.

Given this outbreak has been going on for several weeks, this dramatic increase over 34 hours can surely only be described as exponential.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1016x622/screen_shot_2020_02_03_at_00_02_39_871ba59633b0f7f9a6c9d8127 a899e97e276c397.png

Double_Clutch

2nd Feb 2020, 17:46

I am hearing the evac flight May be going to LEA, not DRW.

FlareArmed2

2nd Feb 2020, 18:17

Anyway I looked at 7 different provinces, and looked at [two data points]...

...this dramatic increase over 34 hours can surely only be described as exponential.

Rubbish. It is mathematically impossible to establish an exponential function from only two data points. You have only described a linear function.

"Exponential" means a data series increases changes by x% each time period and requires more than two data points. In the absence of any quarantine or immunisation methods a typical contagious disease exhibits an exponential growth. Note the caveat: as soon as measures are taken to contain an outbreak the function is no longer exponential.

The very data series you quoted shows this (try this website from John Hopkins University (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) for example, WHO (http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88e37cfc43b4ed3baf977d77e4a0667) has a similar page). Up to five days ago the series increased by roughly 50% per day. From four/five days ago the series increased by around 25% per day. You can see this in the data series for the total cases worldwide, the cases of Hubei province alone (which you claimed was false data) and the cases for China outside Hubei province (edited: not sure about outside China, too few data points to be certain). This is typical behaviour for a contagion showing that the extreme quarantine measures in China are having an effect.

And I do mean extreme. I live in Shanghai. No cars, taxis, or busses. No stores, banks or government buildings open. Only a few grocery stores with a handful of patrons. Nothing in the streets. It's eerie in a city of 28 million. Can you imagine this in Sydney, or London, or Tokyo? This has been going on for more than a week now, and given the median incubation period is about that, it should show up as a decline in the rate of increase of cases (note: a decline in the rate, not a decline in overall numbers).

Any statement that begins with the words "If the current trend continues..." is a lie. Try to avoid scaremongering and listen to reputable organisations such as WHO, CDC and so forth. There's a world of expertise out there.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/943x530/ncov_28a616ffc2ceb12655a45e31d0e76c0ef8aee632.png

"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China, from John Hopkins University (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart show daily increase in number of cases reported.

Winemaker

2nd Feb 2020, 19:10

Thanks FA2, I was going to generate a best fit equation for the data but you beat me to it. It's certainly not linear!

I sincerely hope that this isn’t a case of 3.6 roentgen in an infection sense due lack of test kits...

I sincerely hope this too, as adding radiation to the mix would really muck things up!

Martin_Baker

2nd Feb 2020, 19:25

if they aren’t permanent residents they won’t be let in right?
You're probably right. I think the latest is no foreign nationals to be let in, only citizens and permanent residents.

The other reason for ceasing flights from the 9th February is the Chinese New Year festival runs from January 25th to February 8th. So AJ was probably keen on bringing home all those that went to China for the Lunar New Year.

witwiw

2nd Feb 2020, 19:41

On average over these 7 provinces, cases increased by 136% (from 2014 to 2731).

The figures coming out are alarming enough but from 2014 to 2731 is an increase of 36%, not 136%.

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 20:43

Rubbish. It is mathematically impossible to establish an exponential function from only two data points. You have only described a linear function.

Correct up to a point. But this thing has been going on for weeks. If 25% of cases developed in last 34 hours, that's exponential enough for me under the circumstances.

And I do mean extreme. I live in Shanghai. No cars, taxis, or busses. No stores, banks or government buildings open. Only a few grocery stores with a handful of patrons. Nothing in the streets. It's eerie in a city of 28 million. Can you imagine this in Sydney, or London, or Tokyo? This has been going on for more than a week now, and given the median incubation period is about that, it should show up as a decline in the rate of increase of cases (note: a decline in the rate, not a decline in overall numbers).

No I can't imagine this in many places outside China.
Yesterday Wuhan announced that anyone showing symptoms of infection will be sent to dedicated isolation zone. To me, this confirms they can no longer test in Wuhan. If you look sick, you have the disease.
However banks and shops closed is why I have spent the weekend preparing.
It has been going on for much more than a week. It started back in December. The rapid increase in numbers and the rapid growth in containment measures the last 1-2 weeks is what is concerning.
The median incubation period is perhaps a week. But some cases definitely longer. And it is pretty clear that (unlike some other infectious), you are infectious before you are aware you are infected.

There's a world of expertise out there.
Indeed. Try this.
Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9)
This is the paper that estimated there were already 75,000 cases in Wuhan (as of last Tuesday). The authorities almost certainly do not have the ability to measure what is happening in Wuhan anymore.
This was the paper that led to the government over the weekend stopping people from China entering Aust (except citizens and PR). Note the reference to Sydney and Melbourne on page 5.
It calculated that epidemics are growing exponentially in multiple Chinese cities
It also concluded that large cities outside China with close transport links to China are at risk unless substantial measures are implemented immediately.

If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
It is these very experts using the word exponential.

Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately.

Look around Australia today and think whether we have implemented substantial public health interventions. Does stopping some direct flights next week constitute substantial and immediate?

Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

Again, these calculations were done last week and published on 31 January.

We estimated that 75815 individuals (95% CrI 37304–130330) individuals had been infected in Greater Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020.

ACW562

2nd Feb 2020, 21:13

Question......Why not land at Speke or Hawarden. Minutes or so by road to Arrow Park Hospital. AND NO M6. Not that the residents of the Wirral are pleased no matter what they do.

MickG0105

2nd Feb 2020, 21:25

Rubbish. It is mathematically impossible to establish an exponential function from only two data points. You have only described a linear function.

Thank you! Wonderful to see someone else who understands the basics of mathematics and statistical analysis commenting on this.

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 21:36

The figures coming out are alarming enough but from 2014 to 2731 is an increase of 36%, not 136%.

Point taken. Increased by 36%. Or multiplied by 1.36 (or 136%).

But it seems we agree the figures are alarming.

FlareArmed2

2nd Feb 2020, 21:47

Correct up to a point ... It is these very experts using the word exponential.

We are in furious agreement. I also said it was exponential. What I objected to was that you calculated using two data points and claimed that this made the increase exponential. This is mathematically, scientifically and logically wrong. If you don't know why, don't make senseless calculations to draw conclusions that you don't understand. You're entitled to your opinions but not to the facts. Give up gracefully.

I had read the Lancet paper previously, a link to a non-pdf web version is here (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext). You probably shouldn't quote selected sections of it when a more complete exert says differently. Example, you quoted this:

If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China...

Whereas the paper goes on to say this:

Therefore, in the absence of (my emphasis) substantial public health interventions ... local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation (my emphasis). Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that ... transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan.

Which is also what I said: that a contagious disease spreads exponentially in the absence of any quarantine or immunisation methods. I even emphasised this.

I can't be bothered going further. Instead a few points about the Lancet paper (which is quite short and clear).

They showed that there was a "negligible effect on epidemic dynamics" to restricting travel, with very little difference in spread comparing no travel restrictions to 50% travel restrictions (their Figure 4 and associated text); interesting. I wonder if this applies to the international travel bans as well.
There are four caveats to the assumptions made in the paper that would affect outcomes; one of these was if there is any seasonality in the transmission of the virus, similar to influenza. I assume that If true this might have an effect on Australia in a few months.
The assumptions on "cases" are different from the number of confirmed cases published by WHO, John Hopkins etc and used in my post and graph. This doesn't mean the Lancet paper is right and WHO is wrong, or vice versa. They are counting different things. The paper has an expandable panel showing the different definitions of "cases" used by CDC and the Lancet paper.
The paper covers only cases from Dec 31 up until Jan 28, including the Wuhan travel ban that was instituted on Jan 23, so only five days of the Wuhan travel ban.

Your claim that the Lancet paper estimates 75,000 cases in Wuhan bears closer scrutiny. What they actually say is this:

In our baseline scenario, we estimated that R0 was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) with an epidemic doubling time of 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1; figure 2). We estimated that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) individuals had been infected in Greater Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020.

For a start, the Lancet paper has a different definition of "cases" than the CDC (see above). Secondly, this is their "baseline scenario" it's not a prediction and it's not actual data. It's what they consider a reasonable baseline to use when comparing the effects of differing transmission rates and the effects of restrictions on travel. It may be close to the truth, or it may not. The confidence credible interval is very wide (approx -50% to +100%) which shows large changes in the number of cases follows relatively small changes in input.

Thirdly, this isn't necessarily bad news. If the epidemic doubling time is 6.4 days this is a daily increase of 11-12%, less than the daily estimates of 50% (during the same time period as the Lancet study) using CDC case numbers. Furthermore if c. 75,000 have been infected and the death rate is ~300 as at present, this is much better than current estimates of mortality.

This is typical of early stages of disease analysis: trying to estimate the numbers infected. Deaths are relatively easy to count but total infections, including asymptomatic cases, are much harder (impossible?) to count but must be estimated. A larger number of these hidden cases sounds more scary (infection rate is higher) but the consequences are less (mortality rate is lower). And so it goes...

dragon man

2nd Feb 2020, 21:55

Update (1500ET): According to AFP, 20 French citizens evacuated from Wuhan, China have symptoms of Coronavirus. Earlier in the day, officials said that when the flight left Wuhan, none of the passengers had symptoms of coronavirus. They include French, Belgians, Dutch, Danes, Czechs, Slovaks and some citizens of African countries, the Associated Press reported. The happens as around 500 people, including hospital staff, form a human chain in front of the Robert Debré Hospital in Paris to denounce a lack of resources in French public hospitals

Frightening if correct.

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 22:32

We are in furious agreement. I also said it was exponential. What I objected to was that you calculated using two data points and claimed that this made the increase exponential. This is mathematically, scientifically and logically wrong.

So, you are agreeing that it is exponential, but just disagreeing with my method? Is that all we are disagreeing on?

Mathematically, yes you are correct. You can't prove an exponential relationship with just 2 points. But you can sure see something which hints at exponential.

Regardless, the 3rd point (which I respectfully suggest you are missing) is that this started before Christmas. There is no way you can have something start at zero 5 weeks ago, and increase by 25% in the last 34 hours without it being an exponential function.

That notwithstanding, I will update with the next provincial figures when they are made available - hopefully in the next few hours.

The incomplete figures thus far do not look promising.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1262x1250/screen_shot_2020_02_03_at_10_12_21_21dccd0d2ccd50d8f4ea748e4 de88b94adbd232e.png

Therefore, in the absence of (my emphasis) substantial public health interventions ... local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation (my emphasis). Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that ... transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan.

I agree with all that. There are a lot of "mights" in this

Do you see any substantial public health interventions?

The point is that we agree (I think) that it is currently exponential in China. Despite substantial interventions by China that would be very difficult to implement here. .

Where this ends? Who knows. Time will tell. Hopefully I am wrong. But for now, please lets be able to disagree without becoming disagreeable. Otherwise people simply disengage.

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 22:40

According to AFP, 20 French citizens evacuated from Wuhan, China have symptoms of Coronavirus. Earlier in the day, officials said that when the flight left Wuhan, none of the passengers had symptoms of coronavirus.

Who the hell was going to have symptoms leaving Wuhan. They understood what that meant.

FlareArmed2

2nd Feb 2020, 23:16

So, you are agreeing that it is exponential, but just disagreeing with my method? Is that all we are disagreeing on? ... Mathematically, yes you are correct. You can't prove an exponential relationship with just 2 points. But ...

"My brother once told me that nothing someone says before the word “but” really counts." - Tyrion Lannister

... But you can sure see something which hints at exponential.

Maths and science don't work on "hints". If you have two points on a graph and are asked to draw a line between them, you cannot say that it "hints" at being exponential. Why couldn't it be linear, polynomial, logarithmic, hyperbolic and so forth?

I think you're labouring under the misapprehension that the word "exponential" means "big, scary numbers" or perhaps "big scary numbers getting much bigger". It doesn't mean that at all. I showed you graphically that the exponential rise is decreasing quite quickly, from ~50% to ~25% daily increase--this is good news. Yet you persist in putting up a graph showing total numbers with no context on how they are changing.

It's scaremongering and not very useful.

slats11

2nd Feb 2020, 23:30

I think you're labouring under the misapprehension that the word "exponential" means "big, scary numbers" or perhaps "big scary numbers getting much bigger". It doesn't mean that at all. I showed you graphically that the exponential rise is decreasing quite quickly, from ~50% to ~25% daily increase--this is good news. Yet you persist in putting up a graph showing total numbers with no context on how they are changing.

No I do not hold that misapprehension. I really do not. I have studied tertiary level biostatistics.

BUT you are looking at a graph based on data which is overwhelmingly based on a single province which has acknowledged it has lost the ability to test.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048575/coronavirus-45-more-deaths-1921-new-cases-reported-hubei
This is from Wuhan overnight.
If you have symptoms of Coronavirus, you are locked away. No confirmatory test as they can't do that anymore. No self-quarantine as that isn't working.
If you have been in contact with someone with Coronavirus, you are locked away. Presumably families and health workers.

Under a new rule that took immediate effect, the government said anyone suspected of being infected with the virus or having been in close contact with a confirmed case would be relocated to a dedicated quarantine centre, whether they liked it or not.

And with that, on with my day and I wish you well.

CaptainEmad

2nd Feb 2020, 23:37

Shot Nancy

3rd Feb 2020, 00:32

QF6032 is on the way back to YPLM. Interesting the weird cruising levels.
Started at 7400m, then 8350m, then 8412m, none of which coincide with any round FL in feet.
Throw in a bit of poor English... how do Chinese ATC avoid altitude confusion?
Now maintaining 9780m/32100’.

Simples. Do as you are told and if in doubt "say again".
I bet that Chinese ATC's English is better than your mandarin.
Looks like flight level 7 thousand 4 hundred metres, flight level 8 thousand 4 hundred metres, then flight level 9 thousand 8 hundred metres.
All standard metric levels.
You are welcome.

patty50

3rd Feb 2020, 01:40

The numbers coming out are reassuring. We’re well below the doubling every 2 days threshold.

I have no idea why everyone is so sceptical of the Chinese stats. A province of 60 million will still have extensive pathology resources in ordinary times and undoubtedly everything else is getting pushed aside. Other provinces with relatively few cases must be performing thousands and thousands of tests every day.

Furthermore NO ONE has an incentive to lie. The Chinese government will be on a witch hunt after this, finding and punishing anyone who covered up cases. The government only benefits from transparency at this point.

A lot of anti-CCP Chinese and anti-Xi forces within the party will be using the chaos to their advantage, plenty of blatantly fake videos out there.

The deaths numbers are improving, we would expect this to go the other way if hospitals are overwhelmed and only the sickest are getting tested.

In NSW we have had no new cases in a week and huge numbers being tested. Hand hygiene within the population is probably the best it has ever been, fingers crossed that benefit carries over to our flu season.

I have never seen so much FUD in my life. The news sites must be loving the traffic boost.

Australopithecus

3rd Feb 2020, 02:34

Umm...Are we looking at the same data? The incidence rate is still tracking about 21% higher as it has been for the last few days.

Anyway, we should* be seeing a slowing of the spread, but that might have already occurred with the reduction from the earlier rate of 29%/day.

* if isolation and the other infection control measures work. I am hoping the daily delta gets a LOT smaller soon.

patty50

3rd Feb 2020, 03:40

BlackPanther

3rd Feb 2020, 03:58

Anyone else not understand the route this aircraft is taking? Looks like tracking for YPDN

fdr

3rd Feb 2020, 04:57

NEJM noted the saturation of the analysis process for cases from "8 JAN" (data actually shows that occurred the day before). For some period thereafter, there would be a likely underreporting, and then at a later time a slight increase in reported rate as the tail catches up to the head.

took the available info and lagged dates for the Chinese and Non Chinese cases. Even with the awareness of the problem since late December, the Non Chinese cases are showing a progression in case numbers that are close to the Chinese experience, with a 22 day lag. Too early to say that any action in the international response has been particularly effective as yet. The numbers over the next 7 days will tell the story. The fatality overseas in Philippines was of a Chinese national. Fatality rates over the next 7 days will give a picture as to what extent the ACE2 receptor plays in the progression of the illness.

Asymptomatic transfer sucks, and that suggests reduction in contacts is a wise move. The virus like all corona viruses is quite large, and is not aerosolised, so surface and droplet control are tools to be applied.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1738x960/screen_shot_2020_02_03_at_1_55_39_pm_e137ee3c25756b3b1aaf9d8 3b2addb9dc7c293c8.png
x=22

CaptainEmad

3rd Feb 2020, 04:59

Anyone else not understand the route this aircraft is taking? Looks like tracking for YPDN

Word around the campfire is that the Indon Govt wouldn’t pay for the chemtrail. Wait, are we supposed to discuss that here?

Australopithecus

3rd Feb 2020, 05:10

ABC News radio just had a report from Wuhan stating that from tomorrow they were going to have 2000 test kits available every day, up from the current 200!

If they’ve only had 200 kits a day the the data is worse than useless.

BlackPanther

3rd Feb 2020, 05:13

Word around the campfire is that the Indon Govt wouldn’t pay for the chemtrail. Wait, are we supposed to discuss that here?

Ding dong, ASIO calling! :p

Double_Clutch

3rd Feb 2020, 05:17

Maybe forgot to select LNAV?

Australopithecus

3rd Feb 2020, 05:30

. took the available info and lagged dates for the Chinese and Non Chinese cases. Even with the awareness of the problem since late December, the Non Chinese cases are showing a progression in case numbers that are close to the Chinese experience, with a 22 day lag. Too early to say that any action in the international response has been particularly effective as yet. The numbers over the next 7 days will tell the story. The fatality overseas in Philippines was of a Chinese national. Fatality rates over the next 7 days will give a picture as to what extent the ACE2 receptor plays in the progression of the illness.

I read the same report you did, fdr, about the ACE2 receptor and its distribution by race. I was surprised that they even published it showing a higher incidence in the Chinese population based on one sole example. SARS gained entry via the ACE2 receptor; I haven’t been able to find a study showing a higher incidence of ACE2 by race or ethnicity.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1174x1176/0db09839_2d6a_48af_b3f9_d7a1612586c8_5f7fe3aa1e2af44c4dbae5a 5d6fdf91c27a52013.jpeg

Australopithecus

3rd Feb 2020, 05:40

We probably are looking at the same data.

I have repeatedly seen claims that doubling every 2 days would be the benchmark and we are well short of that. Whether that is useful or not I don’t know but I’ll run with it. Based on 446 cases on January 21 we would expect 57000 tomorrow, if there are 40000 new cases announced tomorrow I’ll be the first to run around like a headless chicken.

10 days ago I was envisaging apocalyptic levels of contagion which so far do not seem to be playing out. Every day that goes by the scientists are working around the clock on vaccines, treatments etc.

To top it off we still have almost no transmission outside of China, including in culturally and racially similar countries. If that isn’t cause for optimism I don’t know what is.

Oh, sorry, I hadn’t seen those claims. Doubling every two days would be unlikely...that would get the entire world in two months. Its bad enough going up around 45% every two days, which should take a couple of weeks longer*

*I know that’s not going to happen for several reasons. I think the rate is going to slow down with isolation, etc, but probably not below the level of say flu. Which is of course as much wishful thinking as anything

fdr

3rd Feb 2020, 06:25

I read the same report you did, fdr, about the ACE2 receptor and its distribution by race. I was surprised that they even published it showing a higher incidence in the Chinese population based on one sole example. SARS gained entry via the ACE2 receptor; I haven’t been able to find a study showing a higher incidence of ACE2 by race or ethnicity.

Yup, that was my concern as well, however, the knowledge on the receptor itself is of interest. A sample of one example is of itself meaningless, but given the source, I suspect the authors are well aware of that, and have additional information that is not referenced. The outcomes appear to have variations in severity, and that was the reason for interest in possible co-factors. To date, there has been a less severe outcome outside of the PRC, questions are whether that is just a factor of timing (lag between the PRC and the world looks like around 22 days... ) or environmental, support medical capabilities, or population related. Question is whether at this moment in the life cycle of this virus the PRC population got hit by weather, genetics and demographic factors in an unfortunate way. Sorting that out could lead to a better outcome through more effective global response.

Muttley Crew

3rd Feb 2020, 07:03

I am hoping the daily delta gets a LOT smaller soon.
Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem, especially a billion of the least environmentally-aware and animal-friendly. It'd halve emissions for a start and do more for the planet than recycling every single plastic bottle in existence and this would make Greta secretly very happy. Some of the nations in China's direct sphere of influence are probably quietly hoping the same thing.

Australopithecus

3rd Feb 2020, 07:21

Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem, especially a billion of the least environmentally-aware and animal-friendly. It'd halve emissions for a start and do more for the planet than recycling every single plastic bottle in existence and this would make Greta secretly very happy. Some of the nations in China's direct sphere of influence are probably quietly hoping the same thing.

Yes indeed, that’s the kind of humanistic attitude we all admire.Be careful what you wish for, you could find someone else burning up your former carbon quota. I am personally right in the target audience for an early funeral, and my viking longboat isn’t finished yet so I am hoping for an improvement. For everyone.

Sunfish

3rd Feb 2020, 08:21

Yes, Muttley, the economists and the Greens would be happy to see all those “useless mouths” eliminated. It is a Nazi term - “useless eaters”

Beer Baron

3rd Feb 2020, 09:46

Some of the most disgusting comments I have ever read on this forum. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Sunfish

3rd Feb 2020, 10:15

Que? Baron, you do know what “triage” means? ‘Pithecus I guess is in the same group as me. We already know what treatment is available to us if we catch this bug during a full blown pandemic. We accept it.

BlackPanther

3rd Feb 2020, 10:20

If we can get back onto topic about the aviation aspect here...

Due to the delays, that 747 isn't going to get out of Learmonth into Sydney before curfew (maybe they could have a dispensation if it was full of evacuees, but not as a reposition). So it leaves the question what will happen with the QF crew who have to overnight now in Learmonth? My point being these staff were just transporting possibly infected evacuees, how would a local hotel feel about having them? Or will they get put up in the RAAF quarters?

stiffwing

3rd Feb 2020, 11:17

Dispensation granted.
Aircraft departed YPLM, eta YSSY approx 0300 local.
Pls check your copy of the Sydney curfew act, specifically Sections 18 and 19, and the words ‘in connection with’.

Of more interest is the tech crew that operated ZHHH-YPLM, due to pax to YSSY tomorrow via Perth...

BlackPanther

3rd Feb 2020, 14:43

Right you are mate.

Embarrassed I didn't even consider a dispensation!!

stagger

3rd Feb 2020, 21:24

Beer Baron

3rd Feb 2020, 22:44

Que? Baron, you do know what “triage” means?
My comment is referencing this post from Muttley:
’I am hoping the daily delta gets a LOT smaller soon’
Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem, especially a billion of the least environmentally-aware and animal-friendly.
Relishing the though of one billion innocent people losing their lives is reprehensible and smacks of racism. The comments are disgusting and your question is irrelevant.

Sunfish

3rd Feb 2020, 22:54

My thoughts exactly. But music to the Greens ears.

kingRB

3rd Feb 2020, 23:00

Relishing the though of one billion innocent people losing their lives is reprehensible and smacks of racism. The comments are disgusting and your question is irrelevant.

Virtue signal 5 x 5.

Thanks for pointing this out and policing the internet against bigotry. Your efforts do not go unappreciated.

Ollie Onion

3rd Feb 2020, 23:51

Surely the most likely scenario is that the mortality rate is actually much lower than currently projected. I would think that the stats on those that have died would be fairly accurate due to the majority of those people being in hospital care at the time of death. I am skeptical about the infection numbers though as there is a lot of evidence emerging that people who are suspected of having the virus but with mild to no symptoms are just being isolated at home and won't count in the official infection numbers as they are not being tested. Many scientists are saying the actual infection numbers are likely to be 70,000 plus. So far outside of China we have 151 cases confirmed and 1 death which equates to a mortality rate of less than 0.5-1%, if you use the projected numbers in China of 70,000 infections with 380 deaths it gives a mortality of 0.54%. Obviously we need more time to see trends and true numbers but I am thinking the use of the phrase 'killer virus' is a little hysterical and is helping to create this worldwide panic and rise in racism. Read the NY Times excellent article on the the timeline of this virus and it would appear that it was know about in very early December having infected many people prior to that and it took a good while for the Chinese to front up with the information only after numerous health workers were arrested for posting about the emerging threat. Also in the article there are many case studies of the victims in Germany who self cared at home for two or three days thinking they had a cold or flu and only once recovered found out their work mate had been tested and confirmed to have corona virus which led them to be tested to find that had been infected as well. I am starting to think the WHO are spot on with their advice to NOT have border or trade restrictions and that we have followed the USA in a slightly panicked response driven more by xenophobia than actual scientific evidence. Also they are now saying that it is not transmitted when asymptomatic but in fact those people just had such mild symptoms that they didn't even consider themselves to be ill i.e. a bit of a sore throat but otherwise fine. The shame of the whole thing is that in future China may be much less forthcoming with any information about new virus' after the reaction to this one.

Winemaker

4th Feb 2020, 00:02

dragon man

4th Feb 2020, 00:56

https://wuflu.live/

Best way to see the numbers I’ve found and doesn’t look good to me.

Sunfish

4th Feb 2020, 01:42

The problem currently with CFR figures is that we haven’t yet (I think) got a statistically valid sample size.

Winemaker and Ollie could both be right - there could be under reporting and there most definitely is a lag between diagnosed onset and death which I have heard is about 14 days so far. That means the cumulative deaths so far are from a population size of 14 days ago.

If you look at those numbers today, you get jibberish - 400+ deaths from a reported 300 cases! We need a sample of say 500 patients who are followed until they recover or die - only then will we know. My unfortunate guess so far is for a CFR well above seasonal flu.

But it gets worse, the CFR we are talking about is with first class medical care which won’t be available if this gets out of hand since our medical resources will be overwhelmed.

IF we can’t contact trace effectively and don’t do quarantine properly, then all that is left is social distancing- close schools, universities, sporting events, pubs, restaurants and all non essential interactions until this burns out or we get a vaccine. I think that is where China is at today.

IF we stuff up social distancing then we are in the territory of “continuity of Government” plans, and you had better have your own food and supplies if that happens.

Australopithecus

4th Feb 2020, 01:53

Well, these comments are deteriorating quickly.

On the science side, according to the John Hopkins CSSE counts, in Hubei there have been 13,522 cases with 426 deaths; this is a 3% death rate. Of the entire remaining cases worldwide there are 6479 infections and 12 deaths, for a rate of 0.18%. This either means cases are being massively under-reported in Hubei or there is a lag from infection to outcome. Seems odd.

The New York Times had an article yesterday claiming that the hospitals in Wuhan are saturated, there is a hundreds long wait for ambulances and people are being turned away everywhere. And dying at home, undetected. The article painted a picture reminiscent of the black death.

In any event, we know both cases and deaths are underreported, and we know that people take quite awhile to die, so the deaths are lagging cases by probably a week, give or take.

i am looking for a reason for hope too, but still haven’t found it.

FlareArmed2

4th Feb 2020, 01:59

The shame of the whole thing is that in future China may be much less forthcoming with any information about new virus' after the reaction to this one.

WHO shares that concern as well. They don't think the virus meets the requirements for a cancellation of flights.

FlareArmed2

4th Feb 2020, 02:21

I just look at the data as it is published. A good way to look at infection data is using a logarithm scale. This clearly shows if the rate of increase each day is increasing (very bad), stable (bad), or decreasing (good).

Spoiler alert: it's good news.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/943x530/200203_ncov_1aa992c9fa79ce689f520cd7df3a31f88900ea85.png

"Cases" are number of cases reported in mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).
Y-axis is plotted as a logarithm, so straight lines on graph show the exponential rate.
Coloured lines on chart show examples of specified daily increase in number of cases reported. They are not lines of best fit.

So we can see that in the early stages the number of cases increased at about 50% per day, or more than doubled every two days. From about 28 Jan the rate decreased to about 25%. Recently the rate of increase has dropped even further. Conclusion: the rate of increase is no longer exponential but is moving towards a null rate of increase.

The second graph shows the daily rate of increase for each day. There is large scatter in the early days when the number of cases was low. More recently the data points have become less scattered and show a clear trend downwards. Conclusion: the rate of increase in number of cases is going down, so it is moving in the correct direction. This is very good news.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/943x530/200203_ncov_rate_f3281a622b1ceec39d5c685dc00fa6221420f261.pn g

"Daily change" for mainland China (M. China) and rest of the world (ROW), from John Hopkins University (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6).
Coloured lines on chart are linear lines of best fit.
Lines extending beyond data points are extrapolated and therefore not data-based but are speculative.

It's important not to read too much into this data. There could be further outbreaks in countries with poor medical care, for example, or a cluster of outbreaks elsewhere. But the trend is going the right way. By the end of February it is possible that we will start to see an overall decline in the number of cases (ie the trend becomes negative). I am optimistic that this will occur before the end of February but it may take some time to recognise.

Hot n Heavy

4th Feb 2020, 02:38

Ah but is the slow down due to lower transmission or due to other factors such as hospitals swamped or running out of test kits?

Sunfish

4th Feb 2020, 02:57

The problem, as I’m sure everyone is aware, is how to maintain the trust of the community while advising them of precautions to be taken. If you stuff it up, you either scare the beejesus out of everyone and crash the economy, or worse, or you leave people living in a fools paradise.

FlareArmed2

4th Feb 2020, 03:10

Doctors are perfectly capable of diagnosing nCoV without test kits:

Case definition of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
A suspected or probable case is defined as a case that meets: (1) three clinical criteria or (2) two clinical criteria and one epidemiological criterion. Clinical criteria are: fever; radiographic evidence of pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome; and low or normal white blood cell count or low lymphocyte count. Epidemiological criteria are: living in Wuhan or travel history to Wuhan within 14 days before symptom onset; contact with patients with fever and symptoms of respiratory infection within 14 days before symptom onset; and a link to any confirmed cases or clusters of suspected cases.
The definition of a confirmed case, for the first case in a province, is a suspected or probable case with detection of viral nucleic acid at the city CDC and provincial CDC. For the second case and all subsequent cases, the definition is a suspected or probable case with detection of virus nucleic acid at the city CDC.

Source: The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext)

I cannot speak to the general concern about "running out of test kits". It may be true, or it may not. I don't think it's true of countries outside of China, yet they are also showing a significant decline in the rate of increase in new cases; even better than mainland China. If outside China is declining, why wouldn't cases inside China also decline, albeit at a lesser rate due to the sheer numbers involved?

You can expect the worst if you want to. Look at the this posting from just a few days ago: Post 10676945 (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/629323-flights-china-4.html#post10676945) which says "(this) model has predicted the outcome very accurately so far". The model predicted 52,500 case by 3 Feb whereas the actual number is c. 20,000, hardly "very accurate". This illustrates the problem with extrapolation and assuming that no action shall be taken to reduce spread. That's not what happens in real life.

We have extensive experience in dealing with outbreaks before. They typically follow a pattern of initial exponential growth, followed by reduced increases as quarantine and immunisation efforts take hold. No case is smooth; there are bureaucratic delays, shortages of equipment, and foot-dragging by politicians all the time. Look at the Ebola crisis from a few years ago. It happened before and is happening now.

What is different this time around is the aggressive isolation policy by the Chinese government. We've not seen entire cities and provinces shutdown since the Middle Ages. This makes a huge difference. That, coupled with the data showing the same sort of decline as in other outbreaks, gives me confidence that while the road is not entirely smooth it is at least heading in the right direction.

ZFT

4th Feb 2020, 03:22

Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem, especially a billion of the least environmentally-aware and animal-friendly. It'd halve emissions for a start and do more for the planet than recycling every single plastic bottle in existence and this would make Greta secretly very happy. Some of the nations in China's direct sphere of influence are probably quietly hoping the same thing.

You could always start off by showing us the way by volunteering to be at the forefront of the thinning out!

etrang

4th Feb 2020, 05:06

Australopithecus

4th Feb 2020, 05:57

The instantaneous rate of growth is 18% per day. If that persists, then:

Exponential growth is a phenomenon that occurs when the growth rate of the value of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value, resulting in its growth with time being an exponential function. And just opposite when the value of rate decrease called Exponential Decay.

dragon man

4th Feb 2020, 10:20

https://www.twu.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/TWU-letter-to-Qantas-re-coronavirus-1-Feb-2020.pdf

stagger

4th Feb 2020, 10:22

So we can see that in the early stages the number of cases increased at about 50% per day, or more than doubled every two days. From about 28 Jan the rate decreased to about 25%. Recently the rate of increase has dropped even further. Conclusion: the rate of increase is no longer exponential but is moving towards a null rate of increase.

While this might be a good sign - of course even if the daily increase in the number of cases has dropped to 25% this is still not a LINEAR function. A LINEAR function would be Cumulative Number of Cases = Some Constant x Number of Days Since Start of Outbreak.

Any quantity that grows by a fixed percentage at regular time intervals exhibits EXPONENTIAL growth - in the form y = a(1 + r)^x

E.g. Cumulative Number of Cases = Starting Number of Cases x (1 + Growth Rate) ^ Number of Days Since Start of Time Period

This doesn't map on to public understanding of the term "exponential" when the growth rate is low - but nevertheless it is.

So for 25% daily growth you've got...

Cumulative Number of Cases = Starting Number of Cases x (1 + 0.25) ^ Number of Days Since Start of Time Period

FlareArmed2

4th Feb 2020, 10:54

...this is still not a LINEAR function.

I never claimed that it was. What is your point? My exact words were:

Conclusion: the rate of increase is no longer exponential but is moving towards a null rate of increase...
Conclusion: the rate of increase in number of cases is going down

Just so we're clear... a contagious disease exhibits exponential growth only in the absence of any quarantine of vaccination efforts. As soon as humans start to mitigate the propagation of the disease, it is no longer exponential. We can still use exponential functions to help describe it (lines on a graph), but the theory says that the increase in the number of cases is described by more complicated formula.

You can see that on the graph. An assumption of exponential increase (say, the red 50% or yellow 25% line) clearly fails to match the data beyond approx 28 Jan (50% line), or approx 2 Feb (25% line) for mainland China cases. For ROW (rest of the world) the inflection points are earlier. In other words, the actual data fails to fit an exponential model.

As I said, this is good news.

So for 25% daily growth you've got...

We no longer have 25% growth. Based on the actual data the daily rate of increase has been less than 25% since 29 Jan 2 Feb (mainland China data) or 27 Jan 1 Feb (rest of the world), approx a week a few days ago.

stagger

4th Feb 2020, 11:02

I never claimed that it was. What is your point? My exact words were:
Conclusion: the rate of increase is no longer exponential but is moving towards a null rate of increase...
Conclusion: the rate of increase in number of cases is going down

My point is that where you have a % daily increase in total cases - it is incorrect to claim that it's "no longer exponential". Any daily % increase in total cases can be represented with an exponential function as I've shown above.

Even if the total number of cases only increases 1% each day - that's still technically exponential - although it doesn't fit with public understanding of the term.

Stickshift3000

4th Feb 2020, 11:18

Yawn... nothing to see here folks.

FlareArmed2

4th Feb 2020, 12:05

My point is that where you have a % daily increase in total cases - it is incorrect to claim that it's "no longer exponential". Any daily % increase in total cases can be represented with an exponential function as I've shown above.

Even if the total number of cases only increases 1% each day - that's still technically exponential - although it doesn't fit with public understanding of the term.

Only if the rate (1% in your example) stays constant day-by-day (or whatever the period is). However it is not staying constant but declining (mostly) every single day--the data shows this clearly. So it is not exponential.

Traffic_Is_Er_Was

4th Feb 2020, 13:53

So what's happened to the confirmed cases in Australia? Are they still strapped to a hospital bed at death's door, or did they recover and go home (but that doesn't suit the narrative)?

KABOY

4th Feb 2020, 13:54

Only if the rate (1% in your example) stays constant day-by-day (or whatever the period is). However it is not staying constant but declining (mostly) every single day--the data shows this clearly. So it is not exponential.

However, you are relying on Chinese data which is inherently inaccurate due to political circumstances. The data release of this virus could also be 'controlled' to avoid wide spread hysteria and social instability within the Chinese mainland.......One of their greatest fears as it leads to revolutions.

I would be sitting back and waiting to see the 'peak' of infections before deducing any conclusions from what is known as flawed data........

MickG0105

4th Feb 2020, 23:01

The problem with the WHO is that it is a political organisation, it's second biggest donor is China.

Complete and utter bullsh*t regarding China being the WHO's second biggest donor! They're not even in the top 10.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is the WHO's second biggest donor. China comes in at 14, behind countries like Australia and Norway and organisations like Rotary International.

Ex FSO GRIFFO

4th Feb 2020, 23:35

And......ALL of this current 'discussion' has WHAT to do with AVIATION...???

No Cheers here....NOPE none at all.....

Winemaker

5th Feb 2020, 00:33

Since aviation has been the vector for spreading the virus internationally, understanding what the disease is and how virulent it might be is the first step in understanding its spread and the consequences of that spread. Yes, there is a lot of chaff in some of the comments, but there is also useful information that can help us understand whether there is an over-reaction with the stoppage of flights into and out of China. There might also be information about the risks crew take in flying to infected areas. The spread is exponential (but not by a square factor) and may be slowed to an exponent less than 1 by breaking chains of infection, including not flying. Aviation is a key factor in this.

MikeSnow

5th Feb 2020, 03:06

Only if the rate (1% in your example) stays constant day-by-day (or whatever the period is). However it is not staying constant but declining (mostly) every single day--the data shows this clearly. So it is not exponential.

While you are technically correct, for most people what is most important is the actual outcome in the near future, not how closely it matches a mathematical description.

For example, a constant 3% daily increase rate can be described as exponential. In that scenario, over 365 days, if you start with only one person infected at day 0, you will end up with around 50k people infected. While this is exponential growth, it probably wouldn't cause worldwide panic, because researchers will have a lot of time to find a way to fight it.

Let's say instead you have a 40% daily increase rate, that is itself decreasing by 0.2%, each day. After about 3 months the entire Earth population would end up infected. While this wouldn't be textbook exponential growth, compared to the previous example, it is clearly a much worse situation.

Danny104

5th Feb 2020, 04:23

With lots of expat guys in China being put on leave without pay at short notice and others told don’t bother coming back from leave it has a lot more to do with aviation than some of the other threads on here . It threatens the industry as a whole . Just the fear , wether justified or not will see a significant drop in passenger loads .
More info the better in my opinion . Exponential or not !!

kjvmw

5th Feb 2020, 06:09

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/119283666/coronavirus-is-a-global-misinfodemic

I think we all just need to step back and take a breath. Stop joining in on the hysteria that the media is causing.

Danny104

5th Feb 2020, 08:33

To Kjvmw,
I agree totally and am not concerned personally about contracting it . I was just stating it is already having an effect on our fellow pilots / aviation. The hysteria created will also hit forward bookings until an end as described in the above article is in sight .

dragon man

5th Feb 2020, 13:14

Muttley Crew

5th Feb 2020, 13:20

Yes indeed, that’s the kind of humanistic attitude we all admire.Be careful what you wish for, you could find someone else burning up your former carbon quota. I am personally right in the target audience for an early funeral, and my viking longboat isn’t finished yet so I am hoping for an improvement. For everyone.
That's true. You pays your money, you takes your chances. But is it more "humanistic" or simply hypocritical of you to point the finger while thinking of yourself above the rest of humanity?

It is a fact that a billion or so less people would ease the burden on this planet. China is responsible for nearly half the world's use of coal, nearly a million megawatts of coal fired power, the obsession with dams like Three Gorges which is an environmental catastrophe, air pollution, water pollution, expansionism, totalitarianism, the list goes on...… ask the Tibetans what they think of the crisis.

Animal cruelty, bear bile farms, torture (and consumption) of cats and dogs, shark fin soup, rhino horn to put more lead in their tiny pencils, tigers' genitals for Christ knows what (both re-legalised a year ago), they even eat koala! Have you been to China? I have and I have absolutely no issue with seeing it thinned out by Mother Nature striking back with a disease allowed to develop in a filthy, putrid food market where **** like this (http://www.worldstaruncut.com/uncut/95933)and like this (http://www.worldstaruncut.com/uncut/95933) and like this (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10813308/disgusting-moment-chinese-man-dips-still-wriggling-baby-mice-in-sauce-before-eating-them-alive/) is perpetrated by Chinese against animal life. [If you don't have a strong stomach for abuse of "food" don't click those links.]

This isn't "racism" as some whining do-gooding lefty ignoramus pathetically tried to claim. This is acknowledging that Mother Nature has tried to find a solution for the impact of plague proportions of certain cultures on the Earth. Nature tried with SARS and MERS, now it's trying again with a new version which the Chinese facilitate with their own lifestyle. If this fails, it will happen again with another new version.

I don't have a problem with it (as long as they keep it to themselves) and I couldn't give a toss if you think that's bad.

By the way Sunfish you illustrated Godwin's Law in record time. Great work.

One last "food" video for you guys...…. She's trying to eat a live octopus for christs sake.

like this

dragon man

5th Feb 2020, 13:22

But the biggest hit to the narrative and China's officially reported epidemic numbers came overnight, when a slip up in China's TenCent may have revealed the true extent of the coronavirus epidemic on the mainland. And it is nothing short than terrifying.

As the Taiwan Times reports (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594)in a report first spotted by user @IN_174 (https://twitter.com/IN_174), over the weekend, Tencent "seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures", and were far closer to the catastrophic epidemic projections made by Jonathan Read (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-researcher-predicts-over-250000-people-china-will-have-coronavirus-ten-days).

According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day

ORAC

5th Feb 2020, 21:21

All UK hospitals ordered to prepare “Coronavirus assessment pods” where people can be assessed and Coronavirus isolation areas.

This is not a drill.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51392607

burned_out

5th Feb 2020, 21:36

Because they identified someone I believe, however I’m open to any other views and opinions.
ZeroHedge were removed from twitter because a journo (if you can call them that) from Buzzfeed actively worked to kick them off by labelling one of their articles "doxing" an identity of a scientist involved in the theft of Corona-virus from Canada. Although the information was publicly available in various media releases.
Removing your competition is a well known practice on social media, and is a valid component/tactic of online media outlets. Based on the lefty views of these mung-beans you can see the trend.

Either way, Dr. Francis Boyle, the author of the US Bio-Weapons Act has outed the WHO and China for knowing the nCov is a Bio-weapon.
No vius mutates with HIV insertions while leaving traces of the crispr gene modifiers.
Dont we all feel like a sacrificial lamb, as always.

Sunfish

5th Feb 2020, 21:51

A look at the biology side of this bio weapon/HIV thing shows it is fake news. A “study” was done in India that found that there were minute commonalities in genetic sequences between coronavirus, SARS, MERS, HIV, etc. The authors then alleged that wuflu was therefore an engineered bio weapon.

the paper has since been retracted. But not before the indian media and conspiracy theorists had started spreading it.

The apparent technique of chopping up the virus is called “blast” and scientists say that of course some fragments will be shared among many, many virii.

To put that another way, what. they did was akin to dissecting a cessna and then saying that because it has wheels and a propeller, it is a reengineered P51 Mustang.

dragon man

5th Feb 2020, 23:05

L-Plater

6th Feb 2020, 00:27

Rumours abound from China that deaths are well underreported. Thankfully (at this point) the virus isn’t as transmutable as other viruses but we can’t afford to be complacent.

Sunfish

6th Feb 2020, 01:59

links.

The story of fake news.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/

The idiotic paper:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

Foxxster

6th Feb 2020, 03:10

All foreign pilots working for China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, and a host of smaller mainland Chinese carriers have been placed on indefinite unpaid leave, according to multiple sources and a memo seen by the Post.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3049239/coronavirus-china-southern-hainan-airlines-among-crisis

dragon man

6th Feb 2020, 04:00

Thanks Sunfish

zanthrus

6th Feb 2020, 05:02

Should be paid leave not unpaid. Chinese airlines are cheap ass f#ckers!

Ollie Onion

6th Feb 2020, 05:13

Isn’t that the nature of ‘contracting’, big money whilst there but the downside is it is ‘unstable’ when things go a bit haywire.

Winemaker

6th Feb 2020, 18:17

Mucking about a bit with the Chinese data.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1550/plot_e14db6cc6a0ff34f028b12811a24d7b0ff1882df.jpg

Global Aviator

6th Feb 2020, 18:36

Should be paid leave not unpaid. Chinese airlines are cheap ass f#ckers!

As bad as it is everyone knew the risks of contracting in China. It’s not just China, if your a contract pilot your income is as good as your contract.

Now back onto the Coronas...

Lemon or Lime?

lineupandwait

6th Feb 2020, 22:13

Flights from China are still arriving. The crew are not citizens or permanent residents - are they returning to China on the outbound flight?

Australopithecus

6th Feb 2020, 23:09

The Chinese government has threatened punishment for local government administrators who fail to contain the virus. Amazingly, the rate of increase numbers are showing a big downturn. In other news, reports of many patients being turned away from hospitals and dying unrecorded. The Chinese seem to have adopted the Trumpian doctrine of calling the truth fake, and the fake truth. Pesky facts are getting in the way of a robust economy.

Li Wenliang, R.I.P. You tried to warn us.

dragon man

6th Feb 2020, 23:23

Qantas has just cancelled today’s PEK flight. No cabin crew.

L'aviateur

7th Feb 2020, 02:15

There must be a bit more info from the expat pilots who are still in China on how things are going and whats going on? It's hard to make sense with the media hysteria, are people dying on the streets and starving to death or is life going on with some strong containment measures in place?

normanton

7th Feb 2020, 02:16

Qantas has just cancelled today’s PEK flight. No cabin crew.
I honestly don't blame then.

vhtae

7th Feb 2020, 02:25

China Eastern and Air China still operating so the majority of freight will still be going I assume with these guys underneath.

Only China Southern, Xiamen are out of of now, and QF still a week to go

There is a few token direct cargo flights weekly from Sydney.

Thanks for that.

normanton

7th Feb 2020, 02:41

Bit of a nightmare for the Aussies trying to get out of PEK I guess. Frustrating for sure.

unworry

8th Feb 2020, 07:12

Well I'm not. Earth's plague population could do with some thinning out. Imagine a billion less people in the ecosystem,....

Settle down, Stalin.

I'm hoping this is your "humour as a coping mechanism" moment, but if not - you may yet get your demented wish

The only way to avoid a potential pandemic is for this novel pathogen to remain largely contained in place. If you'd study the various breakout models you'd appreciate that (as is presently playing out in the epicentre) the ability for the medical community to test / isolate / treat is paramount. Once these services are overwhelmed you're facing a probable breach of the dam walls ....and in the absence of a vaccine (6-12 months), it will be everywhere. And I don't mean that metaphorically.

I hope we all get to look back and be thankful that early containment of the virus to predominately mainland China saved the day -- or at least bought us valuable time to develop a vaccine.

Green.Dot

9th Feb 2020, 03:45

JOSHUA

9th Feb 2020, 06:17

The line is starting the bend the other way. That’s a good thing surely?!

I’d imagine that’s dependant on scale/ranges used etc and fear that a number more weeks of data will be required, before any definitive trend changes can be called....

Ollie Onion

9th Feb 2020, 06:23

The total number of cases in Wuhan is starting to flatten so the initial peak may be over, let’s hope the trend continues.

MickG0105

9th Feb 2020, 06:51

The line is starting the bend the other way. That’s a good thing surely?!
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/750x878/dcd09f62_9e04_4f88_bc63_59965b2db106_6abd34a65f0ba93ce714b40 273da81e8099068ef.jpeg
You are looking at data that is being driven by an exponential function. Flick the y-axis scale over to logarithmic if you want to see whether you're seeing accelerating, constant or decelerating growth. SPOILER ALERT: Based on the data, it's decelerating.

FlareArmed2

9th Feb 2020, 06:54

You are looking at data that is being driven by an exponential function. Flick the y-axis scale over to logarithmic if you want to see whether you're seeing accelerating, constant or decelerating growth. SPOILER ALERT: Based on the data, it's decelerating.

Mick's right. You may be interested in my own graphing efforts in this post (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/629265-ba-cancel-all-flights-china-due-coronavirus-8.html#post10683067) on the main forum.

Falling Leaf

9th Feb 2020, 06:57

Saw on the news that India already has 5,000 + diagnosed. That sounds like a bad omen as I imagine their health system in large parts of the country would not be first world.

compressor stall

9th Feb 2020, 09:19

Saw on the news that India already has 5,000 + diagnosed. That sounds like a bad omen as I imagine their health system in large parts of the country would not be first world.
5123 people were under home surveillance as a precautionary measure for coronavirus. At least 741 tests for nCoV have been done so far. Of these 738 have tested NEGATIVE, and 3 found positive.

that’s from the Indian Economic Times. Admittedly a source I’m not that familiar with but I wouldn’t jump at the idea of 5000 infected there yet. That said, it’s because of countries like India that the WHO declared it of concern.

frogville

18th Feb 2020, 21:10

Sunfish

18th Feb 2020, 22:06

Based on my experience of Indians, I wouldn’t give any credence whatsoever to their official figures.

As for China, twitter videos shows them welding doors shut to maintain quarantine.

You do not want this virus in Australia, period.

Global Aviator

18th Feb 2020, 22:26

Has anyone here managed to do any flights in and out of China over the past few weeks, since the outbreak began?

We're due to have a webinar with my group here at 21z this Thursday evening, and I'd really like to get someone in the discussion who can help us on this particular topic - just an overview of what some of the main challenges are with ops to China and Hong Kong at the moment.

On the reality side the rules are changing constantly.

Wanted to fly into China however at the start of the week it was no. Planned to drop pax in Macau and a China reg aircraft and crew could do the Macau - China leg.

Now however China reg aircraft and crew can do a turnaround in Singapore pick pax up and back to China.

Most airlines not operating into China.

Interesting times, busy places are now quiet as a mouse in the house.

Sunfish

18th Feb 2020, 22:36

Early days. I hope that China’s quarantine efforts (and ours) are successful until a vaccine can be produced in quantity.

The “canary in the coal mine” for me was hospital staff getting infected and the deaths (now 2) of young medical specialists who would have by definition the best possible care.

The Americans now reckon Rho is between 4 and 6 - which is bad. The case fatality rate isn’t going to stay at 2% either if medical facilities are overwhelmed.

I will be pleasantly surprised if :

(a) I get to go on my European trip in July, and

(b) I still have some superannuation left, and

(c) I’m alive.

Ollie Onion

19th Feb 2020, 00:02

Sh&t, thats a bit dramatic. The fact of the matter is that the majority of people who contract this only display low to mild symptoms, 30% of those that die are 60+, 30% are 70+ and 20% are 80+, the majority of those have underlying health issues. The death rate outside of Wuhan is much lower than the 2.5% inside China with many scientists saying that the fact that Wuhan has one of the highest rates of respiratory disease due to pollution as a possible contributing factor to a much higher mortality rate inside of China. Most Western countries have more than enough hospital care available to handle an outbreak, it will be a massive issue if it is not contained in countries around the pacific or within Africa. Yes you may miss your European vacation, although that will be your choice as it is unlikely travel restrictions will prevent travel to Europe, yes your super will take a hit but that will recover when this outbreak is over. It is highly unlikely that this virus will kill you unless you have some major underlying issues and you happen to get infected somewhere that doesn't have good hospital care.

Australopithecus

19th Feb 2020, 01:59

In its current iteration the virus does kill more old people. 3.5% mortality for people 60-69, higher of course for the older brackets.
I am not sure about the ability of good care to save the dire cases-so far that does not seem apparent.

krautland

26th Feb 2020, 15:50

Has anyone here managed to do any flights in and out of China over the past few weeks, since the outbreak began?

Hi there from Beijing. Went PEK-HKG-PEK on CX last week. Loads abysmal, airports deserted. Things are slowly beginning to pick up in and around Beijing now with traffic back to 60% normal (from absolutely nothing) but many, many flights are still cancelled. Opening dates for many businesses, universities and schools have been postponed again and again and intra-province travel in China is extremely difficult at the moment. I know of many villages and towns that have built illegal walls on all streets in and out and threatened people who tried to come in. Currently many offices work remote/online. The days of nothing being open are behind us. Now most supermarkets are open and so are at least 30% of restaurants, starbucks and so on. Temperature checks are everywhere.

Hope that helps you.