How much must the airlines be praying for this?

[Blitzkrieger]

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-21/coronavirus-brisbane-person-in-isolation-tested/11886164?pfmredir=sm

[zanzibar]

"At this stage, they're looking at meeting the planes that come directly from Wuhan into Australia," Dr Young said.

"There are three flights a week flying to Sydney airport and they're looking at processes to meet those planes.


Ah, that's good because there's no chance that the virus could have spread rapidly to other parts of China and from where flights originate to Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane

[rog747]

A new direct flight is just about to start up from Wuhan to London Gatwick - Oh great so we could cope it too.........

[mattyj]

A new direct flight is just about to start up from Wuhan to London Gatwick - Oh great so we could cope it too.........


so it’s a flu like virus that causes pneumonia type symptoms, has killed in 3/222 known cases, originates in a northern hemisphere (winter - flu season) city and is thought to come from a fish market??
It also has fairly limited human-human transmission..

I’ll keep an eye out..thanks for the heads up

[The Bullwinkle]

I’ve suffered from “Corona Virus” for years, ever since it arrived here from Mexico!
I usually take 6 Coronas with a slice of Lime!
Fixes most things! :ok:

[Section28- BE]

Look- 'Bridget' from Sports Marketing/& Minister Responsible for defending Border Quarantine- 'shall' be all over this Sucker.........

Going, 'really' well in the job- Apparently!!!!

Rgds
S28- BE

[Paragraph377]

Won’t do Alan’s bonus much good if we have a repeat SARS type outbreak. That’s why you don’t invest in high risk businesses that are vulnerable to overnight challenges from potential things such as SARS/disease, aircraft accidents, wars (causing massive spikes in oil price).

[rog747]

so it’s a flu like virus that causes pneumonia type symptoms, has killed in 3/222 known cases, originates in a northern hemisphere (winter - flu season) city and is thought to come from a fish market??
It also has fairly limited human-human transmission..

I’ll keep an eye out..thanks for the heads up

With due respect these types of virus can as we know transit via sick pax on long haul flights - BBC UK Headliner today https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51202216

The UK is expected to begin monitoring flights arriving from China, as part of a series of precautionary measures after the spread of a new coronavirus.
The measures, set to be announced later, will apply to flights from Wuhan to London
According to government sources, Public Health England will upgrade the risk to the UK population
Chinese authorities have advised people to stop travel into and out of Wuhan, the city at the heart of the outbreak.
They also admitted the country is now at the "most critical stage" of prevention and control.
Let us hope the risk remains Low....

[Australopithecus]

Five Hundred confirmed cases, 1300 estimated. 17 dead, 3.4% mortality rate. Health care workers are now infected, proving human to human transmission. Now wouldn't be a good time to panic. The time for that was last week.

[Sunfish]

Austral: Five Hundred confirmed cases, 1300 estimated. 17 dead, 3.4% mortality rate. Health care workers are now infected, proving human to human transmission. Now wouldn't be a good time to panic. The time for that was last week.


What we need to know is rho - the transmission ratio and the cfr - case fatality rate. The cfr may be 3% now which is bad enough, but consider that is with best medical care. If this thing infects millions then medical facilities are overwhelmed. We then have what’s called a “slate wiper” no need to worry about population pressure on resources for a long time.

[Stickshift3000]

Well it always was going to be a matter of time before another novel virus comes along; air travel truly does bring the world closer.

Many people sweat the big stuff in life, but it’s the microscopic that can end the lives of large numbers.

[zanthrus]

They always seem to come out of sh!tholes like Africa and China.

[Derfred]

They always seem to come out of sh!tholes like Africa and China.
And people like you always pop up like clockwork. Must be nice, your house...

[dr dre]

They always seem to come out of sh!tholes like Africa and China.

Worst pandemic of the last 100 years came out of the West actually (the 1918-20 “Spanish Flu” (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu))

[Rated De]

They always seem to come out of sh!tholes like Africa and China.

That is a very interesting and inconvenient point.
If one considers the data of outbreaks of diseases eradicated in western countries, there is a common element: Excessive immigration.

Australia has experienced outbreaks of diseases eradicated years ago. The WHO report details some uncomfortable reality for proponents of mass immigration.
Bring in GDP serfs from third world countries where due to impoverishment medical science is not as advanced and measles, whooping cough and the like will gain a foothold...again.
The concern is the ability of western health systems to revisit protocols long since disbanded.

[Blitzkrieger]

Paragraph377, I am quite certain that Alan’s bonus is locked in and not affected by circumstances beyond his control. Airline management gained a substantial industrial upper hand during the last major events affecting the industry, I’m sure they are buzzing with excitement once again at the thought of using a crisis to their advantage.

[patty50]

Paragraph377, I am quite certain that Alan’s bonus is locked in and not affected by circumstances beyond his control. Airline management gained a substantial industrial upper hand during the last major events affecting the industry, I’m sure they are buzzing with excitement once again at the thought of using a crisis to their advantage.


Really? Let’s not get too carried away I don’t think they’re excited at all at the prospect of a global pandemic that will annihilate air travel for years.

Personally the response from the company seems pretty good so far. The information they’ve put out has been more useful to me than anything I’ve seen from the government or ABC or anyone else.

We’re lucky the health system infectious disease departments are more or less free to do what they want. From the top it looks like Sweet FA, the Wuhan flight yesterday should not have landed and if the spread gets much worse one would hope they block all flights from China. They’ve basically shut the country down themselves.

[Australopithecus]

Austral:


What we need to know is rho - the transmission ratio and the cfr - case fatality rate. The cfr may be 3% now which is bad enough, but consider that is with best medical care. If this thing infects millions then medical facilities are overwhelmed. We then have what’s called a “slate wiper” no need to worry about population pressure on resources for a long time.

It looks like the R0 is 2 +/- 0.4 based on estimates produced yesterday. Mortality currently running delayed to cases, but around 4% given good care. Age >50 is a factor, as are any pre-existing pulmonary conditions. The R0 value is a worry, and seems to borne out by the rapidly increasing case numbers.
On a bright note those fine folks at the University of Queensland think they have a novel protein clamp scheme which might allow producing a vaccine within six months.

[Sunfish]

Hope you are right about the vaccine Austral. CSL can produce it. The immediate problem is that the cfr currently assumes excellent medical treatment. However this thing is possibly going to overwhelm our medical facilities and on a bad note, it’s infecting hospital staff.

‘The question then becomes one of sustaining our infrastructure until a vaccine or time and natural immunity puts an end to the pandemic.

I would expect triage facilities will be needed soon if we haven’t stopped it at the border. Also cancellation of gatherings, etc. You will know it’s serious when the carefully crafted daily ministerial briefings start being published. My wife and I, as old farts and thousands like us, would be lucky to survive this thing without expert medical care which is not going to be available.

I will be talking to a public health acquaintance later this week and if there is good news I’ll gladly share it.

[bazza stub]

I see our borders are wide open to our “friends” from China. This pi$$ weak government is too scared to offend the Chinese and are importing this disease.

[Rated De]

I see our borders are wide open to our “friends” from China. This pi$$ weak government is too scared to offend the Chinese and are importing this disease.

Yes it is as simple as that.
Decades of unfettered immigration. Hoovering up houses for bundles full of cash. Cash exempt from mandatory reports, of origin unknown.
Loss of amenity is just the beginning.
The WHO is being hammered by playing politics with this virus, just like the last time. Globalisation is great isn't it?
The Chinese are playing games last time with death reported as "respiratory failure" therefore not this virus on death certificates.
If this is tru, the mortality rate may well be higher.

Is it any wonder that whooping cough and other long ago eradicated diseases re-emerge in Australia?
Blame the anti-vac community but when you import third world trash with far lower levels of community and individual hygiene, is it really a surprise?

[patty50]

I see our borders are wide open to our “friends” from China. This pi$$ weak government is too scared to offend the Chinese and are importing this disease.

Think of all that university revenue we’d miss out on and sh1tbox apartments that would go unsold.

Scomo is from the tourism world so he’d prefer to see 100k dead boomers than dent our visitor numbers.

The rest of the world is fortunate China is taking its own measures to mitigate the spread.

[Australopithecus]

Think of all that university revenue we’d miss out on and sh1tbox apartments that would go unsold.

Scomo is from the tourism world so he’d prefer to see 100k dead boomers than dent our visitor numbers.

The rest of the world is fortunate China is taking its own measures to mitigate the spread.

The measures that China are taking are too late. Five million people left Wuhan before the lockdown, and the virus is now out in the wild. It appears that the fatalities are running several days behind reported onset, so its difficult to get an accurate CFR. The early figures show that of those cases hospitalised, around 25% died. Give or take. As Rated De noted, the Chinese often play games with cause of death citations. So an nCoV death in a person with a chronic heart problem gets listed as a heart attack, favourably skewing the numbers.

Authorities seem to trying to prevent mass panic, and that impulse might just allow the pandemic to worsen. The Chinese authorities seem to be panicking in the background as evidenced by their wartime effort in building new hospitals.

Keeping bats and snakes and people in close proximity removes all the ecological barriers to cross-species recombinant viral mutation. That practice has long been predicted to be an infection source and should be permanently banned.

Sorry to say, but the borders should be closed to all flights from China and to all passengers who lately visited China. By now its probably too late for that though.

As it stands today, reported cases are increasing by approximately 50% per day. By mid Feb that trend reaches 7 million cases and deaths, while a lagging number, extrapolate out to the twilight zone.

[Sunfish]

Too late! Schools are opening with students fresh off the aircraft from China. The Victoria Chief medical officer has allegedly said today that the virus is not transmissible absent symptoms. Twitter suggests he might be 12 hours behind the news:


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047636/doctors-warn-china-coronavirus-carriers-may-show-no-symptoms#click=https://t.co/FZr3Es1VwZ

[Australopithecus]

Unlike SARS, this corona virus is transmitted without evident symptoms, so even a well-intentioned sufferer who might self-quarantine will be passing on the virus unknowingly. The current estimates for the reproduction rate go past 3.0, which is very bad. I read today that medical statistical experts suggest the current true infections could be over 20,000 which may be good news for the fatality rate, or it may be the opposite. I expect it will take another week or so to more fully grasp the CFR, and maybe only in hindsight.

I imagine that things must be getting desperate in Wuhan right now with the bans on travel, personal automobiles etc, and the shortage of medical supplies, food etc.

on edit: Wikipedia already has a pretty informative topic on this virus for the curious

[ScepticalOptomist]

How do we explain no deaths outside of China due to this strain?

[Australopithecus]

How do we explain no deaths outside of China due to this strain?

Because, I think:
1. the travellers were asymptomatic until after arrival
2. the travellers that became ill did not generally fit into the age group most at risk
3. the travellers that became ill were all beneficiaries of unburdened, well equipped and aroused health care
4. the best guess mortality rate of 3% suggests that the total ex-Sino population of sufferers might only have two deaths total
5. It’s early days yet.

The infection and mortality rate of this new disease are very similar to the Spanish flu of 1918. I think that the eventual outcome will be better owing to a faster vaccine development, but for the next six months or so I am pretty worried.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Thank you - let’s hope it turns out for the best.

[shortshortz]

https://disrn.com/news/harvard-epidemiologist-says-coronavirus-is-thermonuclear-pandemic-level-bad/?fbclid=IwAR1R0JusxN3Yr5xdcAJl4BuHoBa2OXWmmBwUGuXVl9Fa5-FFqx7GhzDON2E

[Sunfish]

The problem comes when our medical system is overwhelmed by the number of serious cases. At present you will receive intensive care. Later, not so much. If this gets bad we will have triage tents outside hospitals. Old farts like me and those with pre existing conditions are probably only going to receive palliative care and have to take our chances. ICU and suchlike are for those they think they can save without too much effort.

The main issue is how we keep our economy ticking over and our infrastructure intact and functioning.

I don’t know, but I would guess the plan is to minimize social contact until we can get a vaccine. We “may” be lucky since last time I was involved with the science, CSL in Parkville had one of the very few vaccine production facilities in the world. You see, vaccines are not highly profitable because most of them are a one shot dose for poor people in third world countries. Most Pharma investment is focussed on profitable medical issues, ageing, hair loss, sexuality (viagra) and diseases of rich western lifestyles - obesity, diabetes, etc.

[Australopithecus]

I read a study today that said 18% of the ingredients for all the world's medicines come from China, and that Pharmaceutical companies were being urged to secure their supply chains. I wonder where all the N95 masks are made?

Earlier I mentioned that the UofQ had a new technique to clamp or bind a protein to a virus fragment which would allow a fast way to produce a vaccine without the whole RNA sequence. The entire sequence is known now, but it appears that the virus is mutating rapidly and shows variations in the middle of the RNA not seen in prior corona virus strains. There is some speculation that the mutations are also changing the glycoprotein which might render a vaccine useless but might also prevent the virus from so easily breaching host cells.

[Australopithecus]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1198x1135/af627d74_01f4_40c4_b609_770c84f16d83_b673cc929fc221290f8f87b 8ee36030a1f80aa2a.jpeg
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1289x1577/3a546a88_61cc_4dc7_93a9_6119a71cbacc_4c0c719ee6a021419f57e3d d8b8df127ff4d528a.jpeg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1497x962/9e602e4f_8a15_4fd0_acb9_7805fe02d8df_546543fa86799af9afff9f6 3257aa9a94fabf6a1.jpeg

[plainmaker]

Have to wonder about our Quarantine approach though.
Arrived Monday night on CI from AKL into BNE. Quarantine decided to hold all the pax onboard while they did a 'Coronavirus' check. After 40 minutes they let us off. I asked if that was the new process for ALL arriving flights into Aus now, but was stunned at the response. No, only those that originated in China. There was some strange looks when told that the flight had originated in AKL (no it travelled TPE-AKL-BNE was the response). Sorry folks but the routing was TPE-BNE-AKL, so you actually had the check done earlier in the day. 'No' was the response - 'there might be transiting passengers from China'. Just shook my head at the lack of thought. If that is the level of intelligence response at our airports, then God help us.

[Australopithecus]

The temperature checks fall into the category of biosecurity theatre. They are useless since the virus has a long latency period (time from infection until symptoms present) and it is transmissible during the incubation period ie, before fever or other symptoms develop.

Seriously, its too late now to shut the door anyway owing to the sheer number of ex-China passengers allowed in already. The virus is out there, but the math says that we in the west are lagging the Chinese experience by about seven weeks.

[Rated De]

The temperature checks fall into the category of biosecurity theatre. They are useless since the virus has a long latency period (time from infection until symptoms present) and it is transmissible during the incubation period ie, before fever or other symptoms develop.

Yes it is absolute theatre.
SARS was not transmissible asymptomatic.
This thing now is admitted to transmit person to person, transmissivity R>2.5
The checking of temperature does nothing...and they know it.
Chris Martenson has a PhD in toxicology and understands pathology.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk5P_iRYwTY&list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf


Perhaps Little Napoleon will "lead" the mission...

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html

[hawk_eye]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51292590

BA have now cancelled all flights to mainland China. This is starting to escalate quickly.

How long until QF make the same move?

[Sunfish]

I think our leaders are starting to catch up. We are at least now talking of voluntary quarantine for 14 days. Only perhaps about three days after it was discovered that asymptomatic transmission is possible, so we are making progress...

Following from that, we will probably ban travel to/from China a week too late. If we are very, very, very lucky, contact tracing and rigorously enforced quarantine and social distancing (close schools, stop events involving crowds, etc.) might just buy us time until a vaccine is available.

[Rated De]

BA have now cancelled all flights to mainland China. This is starting to escalate quickly. How long until QF make the same move?

Unfortunately for Qantas, no narrative of terminal has been seeded in the duplicitous media, so they will keep flying until the government stops it.
They need time to manufacture a narrative. Do they have a medical department, if they are at all competent they will have told Little Napoleon transmission risk warrants cessation of all flights on Workplace Health and Safety...
If they keep flying he can sit in 1a to "lead from the front" and rescue Australians.

That the Australian education minister Tehan, as late as yesterday claimed that asymptomatic transmission was not possible is a concern both for his competence and knowledge.

Rather like the bush fires, Australia is on its own.

When minutes count these idiots take months.

[bazza stub]

Everyone is calling this a serious pandemic, except Australia.

[Rated De]

Everyone is calling this a serious pandemic, except Australia.


The donors to Australia's two major parties are too worried about the first quarter's trading figures.
The donations are up, the persiflage ongoing.

Chris Martenson knows a little of virus pathology and he details exactly how the WHO has used BS Lawyer speak to refuse to invoke their own criteria to use the word pandemic.

[Chris2303]

Everyone is calling this a serious pandemic, except Australia.

And New Zealand

[Rated De]

Is interesting the two countries the benefactors of China's "migration" reluctant to do anything...

Who knew!

[hawk_eye]

‘Scotty from Marketings’ handling of the bushfire crisis gives you an indication of how this issue will be handled - head in the sand, nothing to see here.....until it’s far too late.

Nothing of any substance is being done to prevent this virus from entering Australia, especially considering that the contagious period is when it’s likely that the patient is not showing any symptoms.

Having a few AQIS people meet aircraft to check if any people have a temperature or are showing flu like symptoms is nothing but window dressing.

This government doesn’t have the courage to act immediately in Australia’s interests. I’m under no illusions of the economic costs of stopping flights from China entering Australia - but one has to wonder, at what cost is the consequence of not implementing this course of action.

[Australopithecus]

There seems to be a reluctance to act against a certain racial group, when in fact that is coincidental to the geographical origins. Most of the cases are in one geographic pool. It makes sense to prevent all people from that pool entry into Australia. Other countries meanwhile are doing what they can easily do to delay reaching epidemic levels of the virus. Delay until a vaccine is available is the only thing we can do.

This is going to cost lots of money. The papers are full of economic hardship stories already, as if money trumps health. (In a rational world). I expect that Scumo is listening to many competing voices and will kowtow to his Chinese benefactors until it is too late anyway. Which, by now, it probably is.

I am reading frankly ignorant stories that the flu kills more people so worry isn’t needed. The flu kills less than 1 in a thousand people. This thing looks like it kills around 30/1000* and is more easily transmitted with zero herd immunity and a reproduction rate at least as virulent as the flu.

*the estimated CFR of 3% is really rough, and is based on a small sample of suspect numbers. I just read a paper full of calculus that concludes about 50 days are needed to really quantify CFR, although CFRs near 3% might take a bit less time.

[wheels_down]

So according to Seven News one of the infected Australians travelled on Tiger Airways last week Melbourne to Gold Coast.

[compressor stall]

Before people get too worked up about that and aircraft recirculating air etc, remember that the cabin air recirc filters are HEPA and equivalent to hospital operating standard for particulate filtering. Also air comes from overhead and out through the floor , so no fore aft air movement.

There is a genuine health concern for the few people around him and they should be quarantined, but not the whole aircraft.

Ps That’s for Airbus- can’t speak for Boeing. I do t know what type he flew on.

[Rated De]

Before people get too worked up about that and aircraft recirculating air etc, remember that the cabin air recirc filters are HEPA and equivalent to hospital operating standard for particulate filtering. Also air comes from overhead and out through the floor , so no fore aft air movement.

There is a genuine health concern for the few people around him and they should be quarantined, but not the whole aircraft.

Ps That’s for Airbus- can’t speak for Boeing. I do t know what type he flew on.

The behaviour of the virus is more the problem than the behaviour of the aircraft.
The WHO will belatedly admit today that it is actually a pandemic.
The way the virus behaves is not yet known.

It was only yesterday Australian shining light of intellect, Dan Tehan (Education Minister) claimed it was not transmissible person to person, despite confirmation that such transmission had occured in both Japan and Germany.

[compressor stall]

Don’t disagree. The asymptomatic transmissibility of this thing is of massive concern.

My post was designed to put some facts not fear into the perception of the relative risk in air travel versus that of any other public place.

[Rated De]

Don’t disagree. The asymptomatic transmissibility of this thing is of massive concern.

My post was designed to put some facts not fear into the perception of the relative risk in air travel versus that of any other public place.

Complete agreement.
If this thing is R>3, given now we have fourth generation transmission, it is going to take more than weasel words from the WHO and the village idiots in Canberra to stop it.

Of course, with Gerry Harvey, Highrise Harry and their slime ilk donating hand over fist, the borders will stay open and it will get every chance to have a GDP impact.

It is interesting that QF's Little Napoleon won't be front and centre leading from 1a, to retrieve Australia's evacuees, that will go to Christmas island err via Darwin.
Much better to talk about marriage equality and gender pronouns.

[wheels_down]

The aircraft involved was a 737-800 VH-VUD and is currently out of service as of 1240 this afternoon

14 flights were conducted between when this pax was on the flight until today

[73qanda]

Well 737’s have HEPA filters for the recirculated air as well. Does anyone know whether they would be effective down to virus sized particles?

[73qanda]

I just searched for the size of the novel corona virus and found a two day old article saying that it’s size is unknown but that SARS was 0.1 micron.

[compressor stall]

Well 737’s have HEPA filters for the recirculated air as well. Does anyone know whether they would be effective down to virus sized particles?
Airbus say Yes. As do CDC and other sources.

[Stickshift3000]

HEPA filters are not particularly effective in filtering virus-sized particles. However, in my opinion, this is not particularly significant to this issue. Transmission may occur much more readily due to ingestion of airborne virus particles (aerosol droplets), person-to-person contact, and infected persons potentially contaminating contact surfaces that others are then in contact with.

Generally when these issues occur, the majority of mortalities are associated with elderly, very young and immuno-compromised persons, however there are usually small numbers of outliers that don’t fit into these groups. I commonly saw these patterns in a previous occupation.

[SOPS]

I know it’s too late, but I think they are really going to regret the reluctance to offend the Chinese, and not closing the borders.

[Rated De]

I know it’s too late, but I think they are really going to regret the reluctance to offend the Chinese, and not closing the borders.

What is very concerning is that information is drying up.
Lots of media feed about hospitals and cheering Chinese.

CNN posted a graphic comparing SARS to this thing.
They claimed the mortality rate was 2.2% and SARS 9.6%.
It is completely disingenuous as from time of diagnosis to death is seven to ten days with this thing. The death rates relate to known infections a week ago....

Chris Martenson does an excellent update.
His projections on a 40% diagnosis rate and around 20% requiring heavy medical support are a concern.
He isn't spreading misinformation, the data is at this point on the log scale, if it really gets exponential and even mutates, SARS was a mere head cold.
So presumably Qantas has a medical department, why haven't they told the little emperor of the risk to personnel and ceased flying?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq3Y9rmlEQE

[patty50]

What is very concerning is that information is drying up.
Lots of media feed about hospitals and cheering Chinese.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq3Y9rmlEQE


For someone who goes on and on about Qantas IR shilling FUD you sure are doing plenty of it yourself, in every thread on this site that mentions coronavirus!

Zerohedge, Goldbug types like this shyster have been predicting the apocalypse since they could talk. If you want to spread some FUD at least pony up someone who doesn’t financially benefit from catastrophe.

Theres plenty of reason to be alarmed -and angry at Scomo, Joyce etc- without paying attention to blokes who constantly delight at the prospect of Armageddon.

Rated, I’m going to go out on a limb and say you’re safely ensconced in your bunker with some bullion in the corner. The rest of us with skin in the game aren’t in need of your predictive services. According to you those us getting QF payslips every fortnight should be unemployed by now!

[Sunfish]

Patty, whistling past the graveyard. Hope you are right but don’t think so.

The issue is not the death rate now when all of our hospitals are working with oxygen, intensive care and suchlike working, it’s the death rate when no hospital treatment is available at all due to the shear number of cases.........

.......and that is assuming we have enough healthy or recovered people to keep our infrastructure running.

[Buckshot16]

Bazza is right ...... but shut them after you’ve returned them. The proposal the US military had in the movie Outbreak comes to mind.

[Rated De]

The WHO has now declared itPublic Health Emergency of International Concern is defined in the IHR (2005) as “an extraordinary event which is determined, as provided in these Regulations:


to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease; and
to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that: is serious, unusual or unexpected; carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and may require immediate international action.

Given China is a big contributor to the WHO budget it was careful language.

Will QF stop flying now?

[Ollie Onion]

^^^ not quite right, they have declared the Coronavirus a 'Health Emergency of International Concern'. This level of alert has NO effect on international travel or trade, it just gives governments more power to co-ordinate their responses to try and limit the spread particularly to areas that don't have robust health systems. Having said that I think that Qantas and Air New Zealand are clearly placing commercial interests above that of public health. I mean the idiot from Air NZ yesterday saying 'don't worry our aircraft filter out viruses', it is staggering.

[Sunfish]

QF has a duty under Occupational Health and Safety Law to provide a safe working environment for ALL its staff, including pilots and cabin crew. I would imagine QF would take that into account.

[Rated De]

QF has a duty under Occupational Health and Safety Law to provide a safe working environment for ALL its staff, including pilots and cabin crew. I would imagine QF would take that into account.

That is the point being made, the duty of care ought be the standard to which management are held.
Air France unions pushed very hard and their statute is very focused on workplace safety.


QF have no ability to say they are "monitoring" the WHO has belatedly spoken.
It will be an interesting day to see whether it continues to track a logarithmic progression or indeed begins to exhibit the exponential elements...

[Sunfish]

NEJM early study shows cases doubling every seven days.

[Australopithecus]

Early cases yes, the more recent data suggests a 29%/day increase, despite being lumpy and being selected for severity.

I read that report too, Sunny,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=

and the article on STAT which urges caution about the early math since the data is so suspect for a lot of innocent reasons*

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/limited-data-may-skew-assumptions-severity-coronavirus-outbreak/

* innocent reasons include complete ignorance of the rate of inconsequential infection- the mild cases which never seek medical attention, the few misdiagnosed and, less innocent, the undereporting early, and the lack of test kits lately.

As the numbers swell we will get a handle on rates of mortality. The virus may end up mutating in one direction or another in such a large petri dish as China. RNA viruses mutate spontaneously due to the lack of proofreading that a DNA virus has to do to reproduce. Mutations are a crap shoot. A mutation in the benign direction may take the heat out of pockets of this particular bushfire.

As I see it there are four broad possibilities when you draw a matrix of R0 and CFR with the caveat of completely uncertain data sets.
As such I am keeping my arithmetic to myself for awhile, but three out of four scenarios look look dire. Its hardly rocket science, and there are lots of unknowns. And Rumsfeldian unknowns too.

I just wish the government was as pessimistic as I am

That said, there are some probable mitigators to the infection rate, like fear, enhanced hygiene, self-isolation and mobility bans.

Anyway, so far this contagion looks just like the start of all the nightmare scenarios we have been warned about.

here’s a recent warning about bat coronaviruses and China from early last year:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/

[Rated De]

Early cases yes, the more recent data suggests a 29%/day increase, despite being lumpy and being selected for severity.

I read that report too, Sunny,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=

and the article on STAT which urges caution about the early math since the data is so suspect for a lot of innocent reasons*

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/limited-data-may-skew-assumptions-severity-coronavirus-outbreak/

* innocent reasons include complete ignorance of the rate of inconsequential infection- the mild cases which never seek medical attention, the few misdiagnosed and, less innocent, the undereporting early, and the lack of test kits lately.

As the numbers swell we will get a handle on rates of mortality. The virus may end up mutating in one direction or another in such a large petri dish as China. RNA viruses mutate spontaneously due to the lack of proofreading that a DNA virus has to do to reproduce. Mutations are a crap shoot. A mutation in the benign direction may take the heat out of pockets of this particular bushfire.

As I see it there are four broad possibilities when you draw a matrix of R0 and CFR with the caveat of completely uncertain data sets.
As such I am keeping my arithmetic to myself for awhile, but three out of four scenarios look look dire. Its hardly rocket science, and there are lots of unknowns. And Rumsfeldian unknowns too.

I just wish the government was as pessimistic as I am

That said, there are some probable mitigators to the infection rate, like fear, enhanced hygiene, self-isolation and mobility bans.

Anyway, so far this contagion looks just like the start of all the nightmare scenarios we have been warned about.

here’s a recent warning about bat coronaviruses and China from early last year:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6466186/


Agreed.

Being pessimistic about this would be wise.
Big assumption that any moron in Canberra does anything other than scrapbook pictures from the daily rags.
As for understanding the mathematics of projection forget it.

[73qanda]

Does anyone posting here know the specifics/mechanics of how a virus of 0.1 microns enters the blood?
I have always imagined that if there was a virus on a handrail for example, and it transferred to the palm of my hand, that it would simply sit outside of my body on the skin and be unable to enter unless I had a break in the skin or transferred it to my mouth/ nose/ eyes.
Is this accurate or can tiny virus’s enter through skin if rubbed/ pushed?

[ACMS]

Calm down people......

zero deaths outside China and a lot have been discharged already.

take a breath

[Australopithecus]

It enters most easily via your airway, via inhalation or one of the hundreds of times a day you touch your nose, mouth, eyes etc. Basically the same way you get a cold.

Wearing a mask, properly, washing your hands often and well, and never touching your face may improve your chances.

A Chinese study suggests that 2019 nCoV binds to the ACE2 receptor, common for these bat coronaviruses, apparently. Heart, lungs, kidneys. Already suppressed ACE2 in diabetics, so you begin to get a feel for where lots of the complications are cropping up: COPD sufferers, those with heart disease and diabetics, to name only three groups.

[Australopithecus]

Calm down people......

zero deaths outside China and a lot have been discharged already.

take a breath

Do math much? The best estimate death rate is around 2.5%, so all of the external cases might see a total of two deaths, within the range of error for a small sample. Also its early yet, and the median age of those infected is lower than the Chinese fatalities.

[Australopithecus]

Looking at today’s numbers, and relying on the larger data sets, it looks now like 25% per day increases in cases and fatalities, so doubling in just under three days.

In about a week, give or take, there will be more reported cases (ie, really sick people) than the 51,900 ICU beds in China.

[Sunfish]

The virus has to enter a living cell to infect you because the virus itself is not “alive”. The virus hijacks the cells function and changes it to replicate more copies of the virus, which then get dispersed when the cell dies.

What happens then is a statistical battle between the virus and your immune system. Whoever can produce more soldiers wins. Your immune system has to learn to recognize and destroy the virus critters. Vaccines teach it.

Do not rely on my explanation, it’s all the physiologists could teach me when I worked with them.

Closest simile, it’s like the battle of britain in your body with the germans being the virus.

[73qanda]

Thanks Aust and Sunny.
Calm down people......

zero deaths outside China and a lot have been discharged already.

take a breath
Thanks Sir, I was beginning to panic.
Or......maybe, I’m enjoying the conversation and learning lots at the same time :)
Ps, your slippers are starting to smoke.

[goodonyamate]

Duty of care to staff? Shows how much we value staff doesn’t it. No way I’d be going to any Chinese destination. Under any circumstances.

[73qanda]

Yeah if I was cabin crew working down the back for the long flight home with a pax coughing away and feeling ill I would be asking myself if I shouldn’t have just rung Ops and said “no thanks”.
Its not like the company is going to say “ your concern is not legitimate”.
They’ll simply replace you and when they get to the point they can’t then the situation is self explanatory.

[Ollie Onion]

Where does it stop though, Australia has a number of cases where as NZ doesn’t, should we stop all Tasman Flights as well?

[nefarious1]

Look, if we all just work from home we can nip this in the bud real quick.

[bazza stub]

Yeah if I was cabin crew working down the back for the long flight home with a pax coughing away and feeling ill I would be asking myself if I shouldn’t have just rung Ops and said “no thanks”.

How about the hundreds of domestic sectors flown with pax who just got off that flight from China?

[Australopithecus]

As I mentioned before, we in Australia might have the same number of cases in the wild right now that China did in early December. Absent any decrease in infection rates, we will likely have the same mathematical outcome in seven weeks regarding total infection numbers. Don't know yet if we will see the same mortality rates. Thinking...

[Ollie Onion]

If that is the case then why worry about it, the cat is already out of the bag and we are now in a situation where we just have to deal with the virus until a vaccine is developed.

[Stickshift3000]

Absent any decrease in infection rates, we will likely have the same mathematical outcome in seven weeks regarding total infection numbers. Don't know yet if we will see the same mortality rates. Thinking...

Unlikely.

It would have taken China several weeks or more to initially understand the situation from December. Australia has been given a head start in this regard and can screen and manage potential cases more effectively.

[Australopithecus]

Unlikely.

It would have taken China several weeks or more to initially understand the situation from December. Australia has been given a head start in this regard and can screen and manage potential cases more effectively.

Yes, hence my qualifying statement about infection rates. I don’t know yet about the difference in mortality rates under our (or any) health care system. To a lesser extent than SARS, certainly, but with some apparent pathology the disease will kill some people regardless of the intervention available (right now).

On another thread a poster was trying to poo-poo concern because of the age demographic most at risk. The ultimate “OK boomer” dismissal.

Early work indicates that this CoV uses the same cell entry as SARS CoV called an ACE2 receptor.as SARS, infecting the same specific cells (which apparently exist in greater numbers in certain subsets of the world population.)

[Rated De]

Meanwhile the list of reputable airlines ceasing mainland flying to China grows:

Air France
Delta
Virgin Atlantic
Air Canada
KLM
SWISS
British Airways
Lufthansa
American Airlines
Seoul Air
Cathay Pacific (halving Capacity)
Finnair (something Similar)


Fortunately, Australians will see portly pilots in the white plastic hats, line up to do their bit.
Only yesterday QF and the pilot union circulated fluff that (and thanks to the QF folk that sent it) person to person transmission was unlikely and that aircraft filters will take care of the virus.



Aircraft filtration systems are more than adequate to effectively filter the air.
The virus is not easily transmitted from person to person; unlike SARS.



Then clearly the Tiger passengers have nothing to worry about.

The FUD campaign is difficulty to detect when you have it from both sides...
Rest assured, carrying minimum fuel, on a day off, should you falter (succumb to the virus) Fort Fumble is right behind you...

About 5,063 miles


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejc1wwRGjFk








Even the CDC is distributing FUD it seems...Fake news!

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html

[ScepticalOptomist]

Fortunately, Australians will see portly pilots in the white plastic hats, line up to do their bit.

Rated De - most of the time your opinions are repetitive and boring, sometimes childish and rude, and sometimes you open your mouth just enough to prove you’re a d***.

[Sunfish]

We are about to perform a small and hopefully negative experiment on the contagiousness of Wuhan Coronavirus. Our houseguest received the email from Tiger this evening. It explains that she shared aircraft with one of the now confirmed cases, albeit not on the same flight, some days ago.

(Update) A little reading this morning suggests Coronavirus might hang around on stainless steel and other surfaces from 5 - 28 days at 20C and low relative humidity, at least according to one published paper. If that were proved correct, unfortunately by Tiger, then all but essential travel on public transport might need to be reconsidered. I doubt that anything will happen, it seems too far fetched.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

[Rated De]

We are about to perform a small and hopefully negative experiment on the contagiousness of Wuhan Coronavirus. Our houseguest received the email from Tiger this evening. It explains that she shared aircraft with one of the now confirmed cases, albeit not on the same flight, some days ago.

(Update) A little reading this morning suggests Coronavirus might hang around on stainless steel and other surfaces from 5 - 28 days at 20C and low relative humidity, at least according to one published paper. If that were proved correct, unfortunately by Tiger, then all but essential travel on public transport might need to be reconsidered. I doubt that anything will happen, it seems too far fetched.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/


Sunfish,

At the risk of some further Ad Hominen attacks...(Not from you)

The NEJOM article relates to the asymptomatic transmission on 2019-nCoV in Germany.
Of note in the study is that the index patient, upon return to China was diagnosed. The first patient had personal contact, but symptoms were mild and he recovered returning to work. Testing diagnosed nCov and high viral loads were still present post recovery.
Person described as patient 2 and 3 had no direct contact with the index patient but contact with patient 1.
Clearly the sample size is too small to draw inferences, but at least in this case the patients found the symptoms and onset mild.


Despite these concerns, all four patients who were seen in Munich have had mild cases and were hospitalized primarily for public health purposes. Since hospital capacities are limited — in particular, given the concurrent peak of the influenza season in the northern hemisphere — research is needed to determine whether such patients can be treated with appropriate guidance and oversight outside the hospital.

If this thing is confirmed R0> 2.5 our "luck" might be that outside China transmission produces milder symptoms

[Sunfish]

Hope you are right.