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RAFEngO74to09
7th Jan 2020, 22:27
Reports from Fox News in USA from military contacts in theatre - IRBM or cruise missiles from Iran - not just unguided rockets reported earlier - fired at US facilities in Iraq - incl Al Assad AB.

tartare
7th Jan 2020, 22:38
And so it begins.
Photos on Twitter already.
Videos also of at least six launches appearing to be from Iran and reports of at least 30 strikes.
All very fluid and lots of misinformation flying around at the moment.

RAFEngO74to09
7th Jan 2020, 22:40
Now also confirmed by BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954

RAFEngO74to09
7th Jan 2020, 22:46
Now on all major US cable news networks - IRBM or cruise missiles fired from inside Iran. White House confirms aware.

Wokkafans
7th Jan 2020, 22:50
Just a note of caution that some of the circulating images are from 2017 and others are dated Jan 3 2020. Regardless, fingers crossed for all on the receiving end.

tartare
7th Jan 2020, 23:11
Reports of a second round of attacks - unconfirmed.

RAFEngO74to09
7th Jan 2020, 23:17
From US DoD: more than 12 - possibly up to 30 - IRBM fired at Al Assad AB.

Military correspondents on Twitter stating Fateh 110 - has 650 Kg warhead - so similar to Scud C.

Airbubba
7th Jan 2020, 23:18
Civilian air traffic in the region normal for now on FlightRadar24.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1075x613/0016z_fr24_fe81b9ffd0755b1677caed786236ae2ea3e7297a.jpg

tartare
7th Jan 2020, 23:28
Dept of State confirming Irbil hit as well.

RAFEngO74to09
7th Jan 2020, 23:34
DoD Statement: "At approx 5:30 pm EST Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against U.S. & coalition forces in Iraq - these missiles were launched from Iran & targeted at least 2 Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. military & coalition personnel at Al-Assad and Irbil."

SecDef + SoS + Chairman JCS just arrived at White House.

davidjohnson6
7th Jan 2020, 23:47
Why are civilian aircraft with pax on board still flying along the Iran-Iraq border ? Even for airlines based in countries that have good relations with Iran (e.g. Qatar Airways) I would have thought that pilots as well as airline management would want to keep their aircraft well away from any area with heavy duty missile activity

RAFEngO74to09
7th Jan 2020, 23:57
Preparations underway for President Trump to address the Nation from the Oval Office - perhaps tonight.

Airbubba
8th Jan 2020, 00:05
Why are civilian aircraft with pax on board still flying along the Iran-Iraq border ? Even for airlines based in countries that have good relations with Iran (e.g. Qatar Airways) I would have thought that pilots as well as airline management would want to keep their aircraft well away from any area with heavy duty missile activity

Maybe they didn't get the NOTAM about the Iranian missile launch.

SASless
8th Jan 2020, 00:10
What will the Iraqi's have to say about Iran attacking its bases with Missiles from Iran Territory?

That does pose a legitimate question.....of course the pro-Iranian segment of the Iraqi Government will have naught to say....but the opposing faction should call foul!

It reminds us of how complicated the whole situation is in the area.

Airbubba
8th Jan 2020, 00:10
Reports that several USAF F-35's have launched from Al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE.

Hawk98
8th Jan 2020, 00:29
CNN reporting that Iran has supposedly threatened to attack Dubai amongst other locations if the US retaliates.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-intl-01-07-20/index.html

tartare
8th Jan 2020, 00:30
Iranians now threatening that if the US retaliates, they’ll hit Dubai and Haifa.

RAFEngO74to09
8th Jan 2020, 00:37
Live coverage rolling updates started on BBC as anticipated: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-51029181

RAFEngO74to09
8th Jan 2020, 00:42
Now confirmed no address or statement from the White House tonight.

TEEEJ
8th Jan 2020, 00:47
Iranians now threatening that if the US retaliates, they’ll hit Dubai and Haifa.

Also threatening attacks inside the US.

Iran threatens to attack inside America if US responds to missile attacks

In its Telegram channel, Iranian Revolutionary Guard says the “Pentagon reports that the US will respond to Iran’s attacks.”

IRGC then says in a footnote, “This time we will respond to you in America”


https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-intl-01-07-20/h_8e12409c0a75864b3d32bde875c534f7

RAFEngO74to09
8th Jan 2020, 00:51
FAA NOTAM https://twitter.com/ethanklapper/status/1214718817361891329

nowhereasfiled
8th Jan 2020, 00:58
Looks like BA134 BOM-LHR has taken quick action to avoid Iraqi airspace.

Airbubba
8th Jan 2020, 01:00
Now confirmed no address or statement from the White House tonight.

So far it looks like no casualties and no aircraft lost in the Ain al-Asad Qiam-1 attacks.

Hawk98
8th Jan 2020, 01:08
Good to hear, so many rumours flying about on social media tonight I don’t think anything will be crystal clear until the late morning (GMT), sincere lack of detail on BBC compared to CNN etc suggesting sketchy sources perhaps?🤔

Thoughts with the guys on the ground in Iraq.

Airbubba
8th Jan 2020, 01:32
Looks like BA134 BOM-LHR has taken quick action to avoid Iraqi airspace.

Yep, 'let's do a 360 and get the hell outta here'.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/928x546/ba134_13b9732414e5043cc4ea4bcddd6212f601531e98.jpg

RAFEngO74to09
8th Jan 2020, 01:35
CENTCOM: 15 missiles fired - 10 hit Al Assad - 1 hit Irbil - 4 failed after launch.

paperHanger
8th Jan 2020, 01:40
At least 6 F35-A's have launched from UAE ...

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/us-news/breaking-us-warplanes-leave-uae-air-base-after-iran-fires-ballistic-missiles-at-us-forces-in-iraq/2020/01/08/

and live footage from inside the bases:

fb /john.swolbrooks.5/posts/588428808675489

Terry Dactil
8th Jan 2020, 01:45
Yep, 'let's do a 360 and get the hell outta here'.
I don't think that a 360 degree turn is much of an exit strategy. :ok:

cockpitvisit
8th Jan 2020, 01:59
All BA flights seem to be avoiding the area.

BA109 and BA105 turned around
BA134 is taking a detour over Saudi Arabia
BA157 seems to be taking a detour over the Mediterranean and presumably Saudi Arabia as well.
BA199 is taking a detour over Turkmenistan to avoid the Iranian airspace

SASless
8th Jan 2020, 02:03
If the Iranian Foreign Minister’s Message of tonight is backed up by no further attacks....and none of the missiles hit inside the two bases and killed no American troops......then the Iranians might just have blinked!

I would think if that is so....Trump will check fires and offer to negotiate with the Iranians.

Airbubba
8th Jan 2020, 02:04
I don't think that a 360 degree turn is much of an exit strategy. :ok:

Who knew? :)

There was a minor delay getting clearance from Jeddah but Kuwait Control got them turned around with vectors and on their way on UL550. Hopefully anybody dispatching to the Gulf area is carrying a lot of contingency fuel these days.

Airbubba
8th Jan 2020, 02:25
So far, so good says President Trump.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/902x227/trump_43af078e15c03c18cf7dc547358078a96bb8b51e.jpg

Airbubba
8th Jan 2020, 05:48
From the Mehr News Agency:

8 January 2020 - 09:12




Over 80 killed in IRGC’s missile strikes on US airbases in Iraq: Informed source (https://en.mehrnews.com/news/154310/Over-80-killed-in-IRGC-s-missile-strikes-on-US-airbases-in-Iraq)https://media.mehrnews.com/d/2020/01/08/3/3345415.jpgTEHRAN, Jan. 08 (MNA) – An informed source at the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said over 80 American troops were killed and some 200 wounded in the IRGC’s missile strikes on the US airbase of Ain al-Assad in Anbar province in western Iraq.

“According to the accurate reports of our sources in this area, at least 80 American troops were killed and some 200 others were wounded, who were immediately transferred out of the airbase by helicopters,” said an informed source at the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, according to IRIB.

“Ain al-Assad airbase was a strategic site for the US which was used to support drones,” the source added.

As many as 20 critical points of the base were hit by 15 missiles and a significant number of UAVs and helicopters were destroyed, according to the source.

“Despite the fact that Americans had been on high alert, their air defense was unable to respond,” the source noted.

“As many as 104 critical points in the US’ positions in the region have been identified, which would be destroyed upon the US’ first mistake,” the source added.

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) targeted the US airbase of Ain al-Assad in Anbar province in western Iraq after launching a wave of attacks in early hours of Wednesday to retaliate the US assassination of IRGC Quds Force commander, Lt. Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

ORAC
8th Jan 2020, 07:21
I presume they targeted air bases because the CEP gave them a 50/50% chance of actually hitting it? With around a 1000lb warhead it’s an expensive way of pounding sand - but if it is enough to satisfy their sense of honour, let them get away with it.

Meanwhile, from The Times:

....”As the crisis escalates (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/british-strike-on-iran-cant-be-ruled-out-mps-warned-sqnc2klfb), Britain is doubling the number of heavy-lift Chinook helicopters within range of Baghdad, The Times has learnt. Up to five of the RAF’s fleet of 60 Chinooks are expected to be dispatched within days, joining four that are stationed in Arbil.

The Times knows the destination of the additional helicopters, which have been put on high readiness to fly out of RAF Odiham in Hampshire, but has agreed not to disclose it on the grounds of operational security.

Chinooks, which are armed with machineguns, are used to transport troops and supplies. Each can carry up to 55 troops or ten tonnes of mixed cargo. The aircraft could be used to remove Britons from Iraq. There are 1,400 British military and civilian personnel in Iraq to support the fight against Isis.

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said that helicopters and warships had been placed “on standby to assist if the need arises”. He confirmed that all non-essential British military personnel had been moved from Baghdad’s green zone....”

ericsson16
8th Jan 2020, 09:01
It's been a False Flag from the get go.The General was getting to big for his boots for the mad Mullahs liking. A lot of noise from Tehran, a few tears shed, no American casualties.

Asturias56
8th Jan 2020, 09:17
If the Iranians were able to accurately count casualties at US bases a couple of hours after an attack we'd have a lot more to worry about that a few old IRBM's......................

Hopefully the US will fire a few cruise missiles, the Iranians will launch a couple more missiles and it'll all peter out over a week

Davef68
8th Jan 2020, 10:03
It's been a False Flag from the get go.The General was getting to big for his boots for the mad Mullahs liking. A lot of noise from Tehran, a few tears shed, no American casualties.


Interesting theory!

Asturias56
8th Jan 2020, 11:09
Iraq PM says His country rejects any violation of its sovereignty and attacks on its soil"

SASless
8th Jan 2020, 11:28
Simple Question for you arm chair Generals.....why the lack of precision in last nights attack when the Iranians have the ability for precision attacks as demonstrated by the attack on the Saudi Oil Complex a few months back?

Did they pick the wrong weapons and just not score any hits....or was it a way of waving their Willy without making the situation worse?

The Iranian Foreign Minister made a very interesting public Statement as the Attack was being carried out which points in a certain direction if it is genuine in content.

The next few weeks will determine which it is I am thinking.

Icare9
8th Jan 2020, 11:30
It does seem strange that apparently US air defences didn't appear to be intercepting the incoming missiles......

If the Americans had been able to destroy them, we'd have heard about that, so perhaps there are casualties...

A_Van
8th Jan 2020, 11:40
Looks like Iran decided to implement a compromised solution. On one hand, they were afraid of making POTUS (or, more generally, Uncle Sam "on the whole") too angry and therefore fired missiles into the sand. On the other hand, after all those cries from their mullahs and top military, they had to shoot at the US troops in one way or another, otherwise they would look weak. And they did fire, and some missiles even hit the territory of a US base.
Let's hope that US would not escalate on the military front. No doubt that economically they are preparing a mortal coil, but that's another story.

SASless
8th Jan 2020, 11:51
Or......they were tracking them and knew they would miss and thus no action required.

ericsson16
8th Jan 2020, 12:43
Genral Qassim Soleimani=Operation Mincemeat.

jolihokistix
8th Jan 2020, 12:45
Most international contingents have reported results openly.
Why the long blanket of silence from the U.S. side?

SASless
8th Jan 2020, 13:22
Perhaps you are not watching American Television very much.

President Trump will address the Nation at 11 AM (East Coast Time).

Auxtank
8th Jan 2020, 13:32
Pentagon official line is "Iran missiles were aiming to miss..."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-launches-missile-attack-us-bases-iraq-latest-news/

SASless
8th Jan 2020, 13:56
US Intelligence agencies had advance warning of the Iranian Missile attack it appears.

Reports suggest intercepts of "chatter" inside Iraq and Iran gave notice of the coming attack.

That comes as no great surprise considering today's technology and capabilities it provides in certain forms of intel gathering.

Also....no doubt there are Humint Sources available to the various Western Powers that could also be providing useful information.

I wonder if they are reading the posts here at pprune.....to see what the strategic experts among us are saying?

just another jocky
8th Jan 2020, 13:58
BBC reports: Three missiles hit north-west of Irbil - Iraqi TVTwo Iranian missiles landed in the village of Sidan, in Irbil province, and a third hit the Bardah Rashsh district in neighbouring Dohuk province, Iraqi state TV reported.

Sidan is about 16km (10 miles) north-west of the city of Irbil, while Bardah Rashsh is 47km (29 miles) to the north-west.

Iraq's military said five missiles were fired towards the Irbil base, where US-led coalition forces are deployed

If Irbil was the airfield targetted, how come the missiles missed by 10 and 29 miles? That would explain why they weren't intercepted. It will be interesting to see the impact points at Al-Asad and may give a better clue as to Iranian capability/intel/intent.

RAFEngO74to09
8th Jan 2020, 14:56
President Trump address on the hour

John4321
8th Jan 2020, 15:29
Why are civilian aircraft with pax on board still flying along the Iran-Iraq border ? Even for airlines based in countries that have good relations with Iran (e.g. Qatar Airways) I would have thought that pilots as well as airline management would want to keep their aircraft well away from any area with heavy duty missile activity Money. They won’t fly around until told that they cannot take the shorter route.

RAFEngO74to09
8th Jan 2020, 15:30
POTUS Statement:

Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon while he is President.
No Americans were harmed - no Iraquis killed.
Only minimal damage sustained at bases.
Iran appears to be standing down.
Early warning system worked.

RAFEngO74to09
8th Jan 2020, 15:46
POTUS Statement in full:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti_dZLZpTXg#t=35m38s

bobward
8th Jan 2020, 16:45
The US obviously had good intel to kill the General in the first place. No, I don't want anyone to break OpSec to speculate.
The question on my mind is: who benefits from his demise? The US of course, but what about within Iran.
Will someone there gain from such a 'popular' soldiers death, which they can conveniently blame on 'the great Satan?'

Sorry just been reading Tom Clancy again...…..

MPN11
8th Jan 2020, 17:14
I’m just grateful that, reading between the lines, the score is deemed by Iran to be 1-1. Let us ALL hope that they leave this particular scenario as closed.

Nothing, of course, will stop Iran’s Shi’te/Sunni conflict.

OldnGrounded
8th Jan 2020, 17:18
The question on my mind is: who benefits from his demise? The US of course . . .

I don't think the US benefits in any material way. Soleimani will be replaced by someone with the same goals and intentions and leading the same forces with the same resources. Trump may benefit from approval of the move by his supporters, unless the widespread disapproval outweighs that.

. . . but what about within Iran.
Will someone there gain from such a 'popular' soldiers death, which they can conveniently blame on 'the great Satan?'

Of course. The leadership is already benefiting because this situation has diverted the masses from recent protests against the government. Soleimani, however, was a close associate of the "Supreme Leader," so it's pretty unlikely that the Iranians would have chosen this move if they were seeking a false flag option.

OldnGrounded
8th Jan 2020, 17:22
I’m just grateful that, reading between the lines, the score is deemed by Iran to be 1-1. Let us ALL hope that they leave this particular scenario as closed.

Yes. Here's fervently hoping. No one should imagine that a full-scale war with Iran and the US as principals would be anything less than a disaster for all concerned and the region in general -- at least.

Nothing, of course, will stop Iran’s Shi’te/Sunni conflict.

Or Saudi's, or Iraq's, or [insert favorite location where both sects live].

Interflug
8th Jan 2020, 17:30
POTUS Statement:

Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon while he is President.
...
He should be cautious. JFK said the same to Israel and lived not even a year longer.

Auxtank
8th Jan 2020, 17:35
I’m just grateful that, reading between the lines, the score is deemed by Iran to be 1-1. Let us ALL hope that they leave this particular scenario as closed.

Yes, I got that impression too.
We can but hope.

SASless
8th Jan 2020, 17:49
When you see your predecessor turned into mince meat....it would tend to focus your mind upon the idea that following his lead might also lead to your own first hand experience with the full power of a Super Power wanting you to leave office with no notice as well.

onload
8th Jan 2020, 18:26
The question on my mind is: who benefits from his demise? The US of course, but what about within Iran.

The US is just about to be kicked out of Iraq, many trillion $ down the drain since 2003 for nothing! Leaving the field to the Iranians, the Russians and possibly ISIS. All the anti-iranian protests in Iraq - gone. The anti-government protests in Iran - gone. Iran rebooting their nuclear program. What a waste of money + time... What good intel? Successor to the general named, won't change a thing.

Toadstool
8th Jan 2020, 18:30
US Intelligence agencies had advance warning of the Iranian Missile attack it appears.

Reports suggest intercepts of "chatter" inside Iraq and Iran gave notice of the coming attack.

That comes as no great surprise considering today's technology and capabilities it provides in certain forms of intel gathering.

Also....no doubt there are Humint Sources available to the various Western Powers that could also be providing useful information.

I wonder if they are reading the posts here at pprune.....to see what the strategic experts among us are saying?

I imagine there are several camps. Those who last served decades ago in different theatres but think they are experts of ME geopolitics. Those who have or are serving currently in the ME who wish to comment or those who have served or are currently serving in the ME who lurk and variations thereof. Either way I’m sure policy makers don’t come here for advice.

TEEEJ
8th Jan 2020, 20:08
Commercial satellite imagery of the damage at Al Assad Airbase, Iraq.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/970x546/xvqfaa8zsuvvqafwayz9ya_970_80_1a1fba79a314e3af4f17a9cef53177 7b45915ad2.jpg

See video at following link.

https://www.space.com/iran-missile-attack-satellite-photos.html

Capvermell
9th Jan 2020, 01:46
Money. They won’t fly around until told that they cannot take the shorter route.

Surely the cost of losing an operating aircraft, the subsequent death compensation claims and the loss of trust in the airline brand in question for the next several years is vastly more expensive than a minor amount of extra jet fuel?

Davef68
9th Jan 2020, 07:49
Of course. The leadership is already benefiting because this situation has diverted the masses from recent protests against the government. Soleimani, however, was a close associate of the "Supreme Leader," so it's pretty unlikely that the Iranians would have chosen this move if they were seeking a false flag option.

One 'Middle East Specialist' on the radio yesterday was speculating that Soleimani's operations outside Iran (Hezbollah in Syria etc) were too expensive for the Tehran Govt to fund in the ongoing sanctions environment

dead_pan
9th Jan 2020, 09:55
Nice round impact site from the photo above, although looks to be a relatively low yield warhead given the extent of the damage.

Not too far off blatting a couple of chinooks...

SASless
9th Jan 2020, 21:51
Were those Chinooks there during the missile attack.....knowing of the advance warning the US Forces had re the attack?

Spooky 2
10th Jan 2020, 02:09
The US is just about to be kicked out of Iraq, many trillion $ down the drain since 2003 for nothing! Leaving the field to the Iranians, the Russians and possibly ISIS. All the anti-iranian protests in Iraq - gone. The anti-government protests in Iran - gone. Iran rebooting their nuclear program. What a waste of money + time... What good intel? Successor to the general named, won't change a thing.


The US isn't going anywhere soon.

Asturias56
10th Jan 2020, 07:07
Were those Chinooks there during the missile attack.....knowing of the advance warning the US Forces had re the attack?

I guess the options were to move them out of country (which would have been seen as "quitting" and win for the bad guys) or dispersing them locally - bu t then you have to protect each one and you have small scattered detachments all over the shop just as Iranian backed militias are looking for Americans to attack................................

Vzlet
10th Jan 2020, 10:55
The accuracy seems pretty good to me if these were ballistic missiles without terminal guidance, but the warhead effects seem more limited than I would have expected. Has anyone seen anything definitive as to the type of missile used?

SASless
10th Jan 2020, 13:28
I guess the options were to move them out of country (which would have been seen as "quitting" and win for the bad guys) or dispersing them locally - bu t then you have to protect each one and you have small scattered detachments all over the shop just as Iranian backed militias are looking for Americans to attack................................



Or you simply go flying and stagger your refuels to minimize your exposure.

In the past I have done exactly that in a Chinook on more than one occasion when we had reliable intelligence indicating an attack was imminent.

You do realize there are Operational needs that would probably have had some of the aircraft "working" that night.

No need to make things more complicated than they need to be.....which shoots down so many theories offered at pprune by some.

TEEEJ
10th Jan 2020, 18:44
The accuracy seems pretty good to me if these were ballistic missiles without terminal guidance, but the warhead effects seem more limited than I would have expected. Has anyone seen anything definitive as to the type of missile used?

It appears that Qiam and Zolfaghar short range ballistic missile types were used.

Remains of a Qiam that missed Al Asad.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x912/iranairstrike0801c_35f09efc8f933d92daa13685069d1530454fad33. jpg

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/qiam-1/

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/zolfaghar/

https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a30444584/iran-missile-attack/

Al Asad damage.

Two Defense Department officials told Newsweek that 18 ballistic missiles struck Al Asad Airbase alone. The attacks wrecked one Blackhawk helicopter and damaged a runway air traffic control tower. Three missiles slammed into the base's runway, leaving large craters.

The attacks also "lightly damaged" a MQ-1 Predator Drone and destroyed 10 military tents. Two of Iran's missiles struck the base in Erbil while the remaining two missiles failed to cross the Iraq-Iran border. A senior Defense Department official told Newsweek that no significant damage was reported at Erbil.


https://www.newsweek.com/military-aircraft-runway-among-damage-iraqi-base-struck-iran-missiles-1481129

ETOPS
12th Jan 2020, 07:01
One of the British tabloid papers (The Sun) is running a set of pictures under the heading "missile cities" showing some pretty impressive underground facilities.

TEEEJ
12th Jan 2020, 18:40
Video of damage at Al Asad.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/11/middleeast/iran-strike-al-asad-air-base-exclusive-intl/index.html

India Four Two
13th Jan 2020, 18:41
A BBC video showing damage and interviews with US servicemen.

The comments about two waves of strikes are interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-51100129/inside-a-us-air-base-hit-by-iranian-missiles

KiloB
14th Jan 2020, 06:54
The apparent total lack of any defensive fire by the Bases being attacked seems strange.
Were they in “ok let them have their fun” mode?

ORAC
14th Jan 2020, 11:00
No US Patriot or other SAW units deployed on the bases, only drones and SF.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/middleeast/iran-strike-al-asad-base-iraq-exclusive-intl/index.html

Lonewolf_50
14th Jan 2020, 18:45
FWIW, I read in a news feed a couple of days back that about 7 months ago the decision was made at "highest levels" that if the opportunity came, Suleimani was to be/could be taken out.
Allegedly, finall call/approval had to come from Oval Office for any proposed chance that arose.
(I'll offer a 50-50 chance that this is how things began, and I'll explain why later).
So, the day came and someone called up and said "we have him, here's our chance (explains plan) and asks "can we go ahead?" and the answer comes back "Affirmative"

Now, that doesn't happen in a vacuum.
Once someone says "get So and So" a whole bunch of other dominos start falling, one of which is to prepare warning orders for a "threat level increase" to coincide with release of Public acknowledgement of the attack.
I'll estimnate that within the hour of the attack at BIAP, everyone in theater would be on a higher alert level/Threatcon, whatever you want to call it: the warning messages would be flying.
All anyone at Al Asad or Balad needed was 'Early Warning says incoming" and people are already primed to haul their butts toward nearest bunker.
Balad seems to have been a favorite spot for rocket and mortar attacks in my day and lately.

That the Iranians tipped of the Iraqis is very credible. They are neighbors, and have a good political reason to say "Hey guys, duck, we are shooting at some Americans on your turf, not really shooting at you" (a short phone call, I imagine)
May or may not have resulted in the Iraqis sending their own tip off "Duck, incoming" to various American counterparts.
(News reports suggest that this was done)

So people headed for the bunkers as soon as the "this is not a drill!" messages got out.
(Whether it went down like this is a guess, but I suspect it was something close to this)

ORAC & KiloB: As to No Patriots ...
When I was in theater over a decade ago. all of the Patriots had long since been sent home.
The risk of missile attack from TBMs or Cruise Missiles was, well, a daily risk. Low but present.
Know where your helmet is, know where your bunker is. Go about your duties.
Can't comment on why and where any Patriots might be at the present; no idea.

OK, about explaining later:
There are these things we used to refer to as time sensitive targets and high value targets.
On a given day or week there was almost a shopping list on the wall.
Associated with that was this ever moving guidance that went something like this:
Scenario 1:
If such and such high value target is spotted, weapons release is pre cleared if all other RoE can be met.
or
Scenario 2:
If such and such high value target is spotted, weapons release after phone home (home being various echelons of command up the chain) may be cleared providing all other RoE etc ...
or

Scenario 3:
If such and such high value target is spotted, Do Not Shoot! This is a New Week! Last week's shoot order was cancelled. Repeat, do not shoot

I suspect that a "Hey, we spotted (this guy)" event happened, and something like scenario 2 transpired.

But given how long it's been, and how things have changed on the ground, there may be a whole new system / logic tree in place.
I look at the calendar and realize, it's been a while.

tcasblue
15th Jan 2020, 02:31
Hi guys,

Does anybody have a flight radar picture of the airliners over Iraq and in the vicinity of the two targets? I am curious to see if any were close by.

TEEEJ
15th Jan 2020, 20:01
Hi guys,

Does anybody have a flight radar picture of the airliners over Iraq and in the vicinity of the two targets? I am curious to see if any were close by.

The earliest reported time of the missile strike was at 1:34 AM local time on 8th January. That would be 2234 UTC on 7th January.

The attack lasted over two hours so it is difficult to narrow down exact times of missile volleys.

Royal Jordanian RJA800 from Amman to Sulaimaniyah had a flight path that passed over Ain-Assad Airbase by 2311 UTC (0211 AM local).

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1805x931/rja800_fc8083911290d4114406a6c957df45729a896bef.jpg

The first missiles fell at 1:34 a.m. They were followed by three more volleys, spaced out by more than 15 minutes each. The attack lasted over two hours.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/13/middleeast/iran-strike-al-asad-base-iraq-exclusive-intl/index.html

When the first fusillade slammed down at roughly 1:35 a.m., while other members of his company were either in a bunker or some kind of shelter away from the soft-topped confines of Scarecrow Compound, Kilpatrick was still out in the open making last-minute checks.

Two hours and five fusillades later, the all-clear signal came through.


https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-01-13/u-s-troops-clear-rubble-from-iraq-base-days-after-iran-strike

Tracklog of RJA800

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/RJA800/history/20200107/2205Z/OJAI/ORSU/tracklog

SnowFella
17th Jan 2020, 06:26
And now there's reports starting to come out that the nil injured US service men statement isn't accurate.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-17/iran-missiles-iraqi-base-11-us-troops-injured-qassem-soleimani/11877814

Less Hair
17th Jan 2020, 08:40
Atlas had a 767 flying injured servicemen to Ramstein and Landstuhl military hospital.

RAFEngO74to09
17th Jan 2020, 22:38
Latest here:

In a statement released late Thursday night, CENTCOM spokesman Navy (http://www.military.com/navy) Capt. Bill Urban confirmed the reporting.

"While no U.S. service members were killed in the Jan. 8 Iranian attack on Al Asad Air base, several were treated for concussion symptoms from the blast and are still being assessed," he said. "As a standard procedure, all personnel in the vicinity of a blast are screened for traumatic brain injury (http://www.military.com/benefits/veterans-health-care/traumatic-brain-injury-overview.html), and if deemed appropriate are transported to a higher level of care."

Eight individuals were transported to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, he said, and three were moved to Camp Arifjan, Kuwait for follow-on screening in what Urban described as an "abundance of caution."

"When deemed fit for duty, the service members are expected to return to Iraq following screening," he said. "The health and welfare of our personnel is a top priority and we will not discuss any individual's medical status."

In a Thursday briefing, Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman credited military early warning systems with detecting incoming missiles and allowing troops to reach shelter as the strikes began.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/01/17/11-us-troops-injured-iranian-missile-attack-iraq-base-officials-confirm.html

NutLoose
24th Jan 2020, 19:17
It now appears that 34 US troops suffered brain injuries :(

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/34-troops-have-brain-injuries-from-iranian-missile-strike-pentagon-says/ar-BBZiEV4

GlobalNav
24th Jan 2020, 19:54
It now appears that 34 US troops suffered brain injuries :(

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/34-troops-have-brain-injuries-from-iranian-missile-strike-pentagon-says/ar-BBZiEV4

To be fair, head injuries without lacerations or loss of blood can take some time to positively diagnose. I can imagine the general sense of relief when there appeared to be no immediate need for body bags, first aid or trauma surgery. I doubt the Pentagon was intentionally misleading the public on this. Hopefully these troops, and perhaps others who may be diagnosed later, will get the needed treatment. Head injury has been a big problem for active troops and veterans over the last few decades.

hunterboy
25th Jan 2020, 00:55
Perhaps it was said as a way of de-escalating the situation? If US troops had been killed or seriously injured, I imagine the US would have had to retaliate.

Buster Hyman
25th Jan 2020, 05:15
Perhaps it was said as a way of de-escalating the situation? If US troops had been killed or seriously injured, I imagine the US would have had to retaliate.
Thought along similar lines at the time. US got their man, Iran got payback...dust settles...

Fareastdriver
25th Jan 2020, 08:43
That must have been what my grandmother got when the Germans planted a V2 in her back garden.

TEEEJ
30th Jan 2020, 16:55
Pentagon Now Says 50 Troops — Not 34 — Suffered Brain Injuries In Iran Strike

The number of U.S. service members diagnosed with traumatic brain injury after Iranian missile attacks earlier this month has risen to 50 — up from the 34 reported last week. The Pentagon announced the increase Tuesday evening and said 32 of those 50 service members have already received treatment and returned to duty in Iraq.


https://www.npr.org/2020/01/29/800770355/pentagon-now-says-50-troops-not-34-suffered-brain-injuries-in-iran-strike

Lonewolf_50
30th Jan 2020, 18:22
When the enemy shoots back, sometimes people get hurt.