737 Max - Europe S20

[davidjohnson6]

We are all aware of talk about when the 737 Max might (or might not) return to service. During S19 a number of European short haul leisure focussed airlines have needed to lease in aircraft from small ACMI operators
At what point will the European airlines with currently grounded 737 Max aircraft likely need to sign leases to ensure availability of aircraft to taken punters on holiday to the beach in S20 ?

Can they defer a decision until Xmas ? Or even later ?

Note - I'm not asking "when will the 737 Max return to service" - I don't believe anyone can given a definite answer on this despite what Boeing may indicate. My question is about when decisions need to be made about leasing in alternate aircraft for S20 in the event that the 737 Max remains grounded beyond Easter 2020

[rog747]

I would imagine TUI have been looking at this for some time now as the S20 IT flying program has to be put to bed by now - So these decisions have to be ''do we bite the bullet now or not....''
The MAX ACMI debacle has cost TUI £600m so far....ouch
ACMI airlines like Titan have expanded their fleet largely for Jet2's work for next year.

TUI's new holiday jet fleet was pivotal on 757 and maybe 767 retirements which should have been completed by now -
TUI have now to decide whether again to still hang on to as many 757's as they can - No doubt expensive MX and C checks are due on the 757's - do we pay for those or do we wait?
Also TUI have some 757's due to be sold on for freighter conversions so they may have to let those go contractually - infact one went this week.

As for Ryanair - I think they are in a different position as they do not sell package holidays but their route expansions must be on hold....
Enter Air and Smartwings also have grounded Max but they are not as badly affected as TUI

[flying phil 2007]

Ryanair were talking about getting hold of the Thomas Cook A320’s for their Lauda Air operation.

[rog747]

Seems from Jethros, the TUI UK 11 x 757's due to go after or during this winter,
TUI have now extended their leases again to cover the 9 MAX groundings and TCK closure
1 x 757 has gone back to lessors this week for conversion to freighter

the 2 x 767's remain in the fleet

[Yeehaw22]

Seems from Jethros, the TUI UK 11 x 757's due to go after or during this winter,
TUI have now extended their leases again to cover the 9 MAX groundings and TCK closure
1 x 757 has gone back to lessors this week for conversion to freighter

the 2 x 767's remain in the fleet

Jethros isn't 100% accurate. The 2 that were extended this year are still going to China as freighters (BG & EV) the rest haven't been finalised and were never all going to be WFU this winter as jethros states. There were also some of the older 738 due to be returned to lessor this winter but no idea if the plans have changed for these.

[rog747]

YH22 many thanks for the updates :)

[EI-BUD]

Good thread topic. As stated it is far from clear when the MAX will re-enter service. I wouldn't expect to see it back flying on airline service until S2021.

When it does make a reappearance it will be headlines, so Boeing and airline operators will need to have a compelling communications message to the travelling public, I can just imagine the tabloid press with sensational headlines about safety etc...

[DaveReidUK]

Good thread topic. As stated it is far from clear when the MAX will re-enter service. I wouldn't expect to see it back flying on airline service until S2021.

You do realise that's 17 months away ?

[rog747]

Frankly Dave I too do not have that much optimism that we will see the MAX fly again in Europe, or the UK in time for S20 season (ie May 1st onwards) so S21 could well be the case....

We still seem nowhere near any fix from the manufacturer that the worldwide Certification Agencies can look at to seek approval.
They will also likely wait for the official ET crash report to be published, then we have the issue of pilot training/re-training etc.

What do you think?
Best R.

[DaveReidUK]

If I was a betting man, my money would be on Q1, or possibly Q2, of next year.

Obviously that would mean that any use of the Max in S20 (starting end of March) would be on an ad-hoc basis, since the schedules are already in place, but many airlines will otherwise be desperately short of capacity for the Summer season.

[Gurnard]

For S19, read S20??

[DaveReidUK]

For S19, read S20??

Er, yes, corrected. :\

[EI-BUD]

You do realise that's 17 months away ?
Yes DaveReidUK, that's my opinion S21..
Besides any reentry into service will have to be on a phased basis airlines will struggle to take backlogs of planes at once... I certainly wouldn't be comfortable in any schedules planning department building a schedule for any sooner given the lack of substitute aircraft in the market...

[rog747]

Yes DaveReidUK, that's my opinion S20..
Besides any reentry into service will have to be on a phased basis airlines will struggle to take backlogs of planes at once... I certainly wouldn't be comfortable in any schedules planning department building a schedule for any sooner given the lack of substitute aircraft in the market...

Plus add in the flight deck crew training/re-training, plus any mandatory SIM work that maybe required by Regulators for crew to RTS on MAX aircraft...

None of this is going to be expeditious.

[SilverCityKid]

It is not impossible that in the future the Certification Agencies (particularly those outside the USA) may require a different Type Rating for the B737 MAX8 compared with the B737-800.
Boeings attempts to avoid a separate type rating for the B737 MAX8 seems to me to have been the root cause of many of the problems with the B737 MAX8.

[DaveReidUK]

Yes DaveReidUK, that's my opinion S20..
Besides any reentry into service will have to be on a phased basis airlines will struggle to take backlogs of planes at once... I certainly wouldn't be comfortable in any schedules planning department building a schedule for any sooner given the lack of substitute aircraft in the market...

Maybe I misread your post. Yes, I agree that airlines plan their schedules a year or more in advance, and planners can't afford to make overoptimistic assumptions about when the grounding will end.

But you said categorically that you don't expect to see the Max flying in airline service until Summer 2021, whereas I fully expect the aircraft to start operating for airlines within a few days of the grounding being lifted (on an ad-hoc basis, obviously), and I'll be amazed if that moment is still more than a year away.

[EI-BUD]

Maybe I misread your post. Yes, I agree that airlines plan their schedules a year or more in advance, and planners can't afford to make overoptimistic assumptions about when the grounding will end.

But you said categorically that you don't expect to see the Max flying in airline service until Summer 2021, whereas I fully expect the aircraft to start operating for airlines within a few days of the grounding being lifted (on an ad-hoc basis, obviously), and I'll be amazed if that moment is still more than a year away.

Sorry DaveReid I am losing my sense of time.
I meant to type S21 in my last post, I think S20 is far to close to overcome all the issues....

[DaveReidUK]

I meant to type S21 in my last post, I think S20 is far to close to overcome all the issues....

Yes, I understood that you meant S21. I still think that's unduly pessimistic.

Time will tell ...

[dc9-32]

At this rate, Boeing would have time to retool up the 757 line and get that back into production and to drop the MAX.

[davidjohnson6]

Fir those unaware, Boeing announced production of the 737 Max will be suspended in January. Large production lines take time to restart after suspension, so this is clearly not going to be just a few days.

Has the decision now been made for airlines operating within Europe for S20 as to what to do ? Should one now expect the likes of TUI and others to be trying to get hold of every 150-200 seat aircraft they can find ?

[Cymmon]

This is almost unprecedented, the time to return to service. I can only remember the comet being grounded longer but that was basically a full rebuild of the aircraft.. Complete Windows redesign from square to round, not "just" a software tweak. The Max problem really must be significant if it's going to take this long. I'm wondering if airlines will switch to other suppliers, but that would depend on them having capacity to make quick deliveries. Maybe Airbus could ramp up in US and China, or the Chinese could step in to fill the gap?

[N707ZS]

Passenger confidence due to media coverage of the accidents and the long term grounding is going to be interesting.

[Superpilot]

As sad as it is to say, it is statistically speaking, quite likely another MAX will accident/incident will take place in the 1-2 years after it is back on line. There is a back log of 400 aircraft to clear. Once the fix has been approved and applied to each aircraft, airlines will be under pressure to get them delivered and on line ASAP . Things will be rushed and shortcuts will be taken ultimately resulting in other more well known factors to take over and contribute to an accident/incident.

One more accident or incident will be enough to put the final nail into the coffin even if it has nothing to do with MCAS. It will cause another media stir with negative publicity for Boeing and airlines alike. The name has been dirtied. Airlines need to start demanding Boeing rebrand the MAX now and go as far as possible to make it appear to the public it is a different aircraft. Right now that is not a priority but it ought to be as it's the next battle they will need to fight.

[BRUpax]

Airlines need to start demanding Boeing rebrand the MAX now and go as far as possible to make it appear to the public it is a different aircraft.

That won't work. The press will know and the public will be informed that the new rebranded Boeing 737 Fiasco is in fact the old MAX ;)

[LTNman]

To placate passengers concerns rub out Boeing from the side of the aircraft and insert Airbus

[EISNN]

Things will be rushed and shortcuts will be taken ultimately resulting in other more well known factors to take over and contribute to an accident/incident.

Airlines need to start demanding Boeing rebrand the MAX now and go as far as possible to make it appear to the public it is a different aircraft.


Firstly I don’t think Boeing, the FAA, EASA or any other aviation authority nor the airlines will rush anything and no shortcuts will be taken. There is too much at stake. Lives, reputation, careers, investment and money to mention just a few key points.

As for a rebranding? “A turd by any other name is still a turd”, comes to mind. Also the media,airline crews and the general public are not fools. I wouldn’t insult them by suggesting that they wouldn’t know it’s still the same aircraft.

[brian_dromey]

Fir those unaware, Boeing announced production of the 737 Max will be suspended in January. Large production lines take time to restart after suspension, so this is clearly not going to be just a few days.

Has the decision now been made for airlines operating within Europe for S20 as to what to do ? Should one now expect the likes of TUI and others to be trying to get hold of every 150-200 seat aircraft they can find ?

I don’t think so. Production and schedules are largely independent. It’s worth considering that airlines have a lot more access to Manufacturer timelines than the public does. Most summer schedules have been written assuming the MAX is unavailable. As you say, a return to service for the start of the summer schedule seems unlikely. The peak July/August is not impossible though, subject to crewing for those airlines with delivered MAX’s.

[EIFFS]

Interesting situation that the regulators and Boeing find themselves in, on the one hand MCAS is needed because without it you could in extreme circumstance be unable to recover the aircraft from an UAS and yet if MCAS malfunctions with the current software it might put you in an UAS

Choice seem limited to "trusting the new software to be sensor failure redundant" or a massive redesign which would probably result in it being a new type rather variant or scrap it and build a new aircraft from scratch ..............

I'd go with the software personally and more detailed sim training.

There is no way to switch off MCAS without disabling the STAB and trying to manually trim the stab in a high speed high work load situation is far from easy

[Wycombe]

Wondering how many Max Customers would have found the NG suitable for their needs (had Boeing not stopped building them)?

Surely better to be operating something that's a bit less capable than having to not operate or not expand at all?

[WHBM]

Wondering how many Max Customers would have found the NG suitable for their needs (had Boeing not stopped building them)?

Surely better to be operating something that's a bit less capable than having to not operate or not expand at all?
Just what Jet2 did (ordered a large NG fleet well after the Max launch). Have to say they seem perfectly satisfactory to me.

I, too, think it will be S21 before the Max is meaningfully back. There are going to be mods to install as well as software, and a lot of training which, as almost no simulators exist for it, will need to be on modified aircraft.

[bad bear]

Can the planes be modified to use previous engines without the need for software or are they completely different from earlier 737s?