Suspect Syrian air defence missile hits Cyprus

[NutLoose]

See

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/russian-made-missile-hits-holiday-island-of-cyprus/ar-AADGrS1

[TBM-Legend]

Interesting development. It is either a long way off target or maybe Cyprus {RAF] is the target!

[Bob Viking]

There aren’t many ‘air defense’ systems that can accidentally stray over 100 miles.

If it is, in fact, an air defense missile then the distance kind of narrows its’ type down a little.

BV

[MAINJAFAD]

There aren’t many ‘air defense’ systems that can accidentally stray over 100 miles.

If it is, in fact, an air defense missile then the distance kind of narrows its’ type down a little.

BV

Part of a S-200 (SA=5) from the looks of it. Syria have been lobbing them about into other countries for the last few years, normally in an attempt to shoot down something Israeli.

[Bob Viking]

The tail fins in the picture on the BBC website don’t look like an S200.

Still, I guess we will all find out the truth eventually!

BV🤔

[jolihokistix]

If it was, then the S-200 was/is designed to explode in mid-air if it does not find its target, according to one news source.

[Just This Once...]

Looks like an SA-5 to me - liquid fuel sustainer section!

The missile does have a crude surface-to-surface mode with basic inertial autopilot guidance. Reasonably effective when nuclear tipped.

[PhilipG]

The reported joint US, Israel and UK F35 exercise in the region must be making things slightly difficult for the Syrians.
As I understand it the UK and US F35s are over Syria in the fight against ISIS whilst the Israeli F35s are over Syria in an effort to take out Syrian or Iranian assets on the ground.
Any ideas on how deconfliction is achieved?

[jolihokistix]

Oh, and the US has just moved F-22s to Qatar.

[MAINJAFAD]

Looks like an SA-5 to me - liquid fuel sustainer section!

The missile does have a crude surface-to-surface mode with basic inertial autopilot guidance. Reasonably effective when nuclear tipped.

S-300 body diameter 500mm S-200 body diameter 830mm. Both missiles use tail steering, there are no moving airfoil parts in the BBC pictures and a sight tapper on the leading edge of the fin (which isn't the front of the section as that not straight), Part of the mid mainbody section of an SA-5 with part of the four main fins (wings) attached. Most likely lost lock and went ballistic.

[racedo]

The reported joint US, Israel and UK F35 exercise in the region must be making things slightly difficult for the Syrians.
As I understand it the UK and US F35s are over Syria in the fight against ISIS whilst the Israeli F35s are over Syria in an effort to take out Syrian or Iranian assets on the ground.
Any ideas on how deconfliction is achieved?

Strange how they don't take action against the funders of ISIS but sell them weapons instead.

[NutLoose]

More images

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/russian-made-missile-explodes-above-northern-cyprus-villages/ar-AADGnkO

[melmothtw]

Strange how they don't take action against the funders of ISIS but sell them weapons instead.

Do take the tin-foil hat off, racedo.

[A_Van]

There was an attack of Israeli AF this night over Syria. Probably it was an old S-200 missile that could not hit any manoeuvrable target and flew into nowhere. Why was not it blown up in mid-course, that's the question. However, this kind of accident already happened some 20 years ago when a Ukrainian S-200 missed a target during training and then hit Tu-154 flying from Israel to Russia. The distance was pretty long (some 250 km), longer than from west Syria to east Cyprus.

[Just This Once...]

...likely lost lock and went ballistic.

Failure mode unknown but SA-5 missiles do not usually go ballistic when lost-lock. The autopilot and downlink remain active, the engine can be throttled and the missile remains alive and awake until the power from the turbine runs out, killing the hydraulic power.

The 3-channel AP, inertial system and variable engine thrust is all about flying the most kinematically efficient profile. It does not guide in the traditional SAM sense, with different control laws for each phase of flight. Only in the short-shot mode does it default to a standard p-nav course guidance. A rather interesting system to operate and ahead of its time. The AIM-54 body shape owes more than a nod of its design to the SA-5.

[Bob Viking]

I concede that it is quite possible that I am wrong about the missile.

However, in my mind there is something fishy about a SAM fired West from Syria (why West) accidentally landing on Cyprus. There is a lot of sea and not much Cyprus in that direction.

I mean, seriously, what are the chances?!

BV

[racedo]

Do take the tin-foil hat off, racedo.

So how come they never seem to bomb them and ISIS get loads of equipment from the west.

[Just This Once...]

I mean, seriously, what are the chances?!


It's not the first Syrian SAM to join Club Med - they have hit the sea, their own beaches, the interior, their own troops, a few of their own aircraft and even a Russian aircraft. You could argue that it would only be a matter of time before somewhere like Cyprus would be hit.

But, unlike most SAMs, this is a system with a rustic surface to surface capability so I am sure the electronic 'take' will be studied with interest. Much like when Libya fired a few SA-5s at US Navy warships (all missed, but 10/10 for effort), not every event is an accident.

[Lima Juliet]

Time to deploy some PAC-3 Patriot missiles to the SBA??

[orca]

Can you imagine the Jt GBAD folk with HVM and Rapier returning the favour. Launched east out of SBA the impact would be...well, easily visible from SBA.

[melmothtw]

So how come they never seem to bomb them and ISIS get loads of equipment from the west.

Such a Mickey Mouse analysis.

The equipment they "get from the West" is invariably recovered off the battlefield from the Western- equipped Iraqi armed forces and from the thriving black market.

And why accuse Israel of supplying Western equipment, and not the US, France, the UK etc? It's a rhetorical question as I know the answer already.

You may have also noticed the abundance of Kalashnikovs and RPGs etc in their hands, but no accusations coming from you and your kind of being equipped by Russia. Odd.

[Blossy]

It seems that racedo holds very odd views.

[TEEEJ]

https://twitter.com/nathanmorley/status/1145598909496139777

https://twitter.com/nathanmorley/status/1145619989933756416

[Easy Street]

It seems that racedo holds very odd views.

That depends whether the ‘western allies supplying ISIS’ he refers to are Saudi Arabia and Israel, backed by US neoconservatives (in which case ‘odd’ is probably too polite a word) or Qatar and Turkey (in which case he may have a point). The situation in the Levant is hideously complex but a look at the much simpler case of Libya makes it clear where the lines have been drawn between Middle Eastern states.

[melmothtw]

That depends whether the ‘western allies supplying ISIS’ he refers to are Saudi Arabia and Israel, backed by US neoconservatives (in which case ‘odd’ is probably too polite a word) or Qatar and Turkey (in which case he may have a point). The situation in the Levant is hideously complex but a look at the much simpler case of Libya makes it clear where the lines have been drawn between Middle Eastern states.

He's talking about Israel.

[peterperfect]

So what happens now to EASAs approach to conflict zone risk ? Particularly CZIB-2017-03R4 that covers Syria.

[jimjim1]

in the BBC pictures and a sight tapper on the leading edge of the fin

I am not that familiar with these systems, can someone please explain the function of the sight tapper?

[AnglianAV8R]

I am not that familiar with these systems, can someone please explain the function of the sight tapper?

I wonder if it was a typo and perhaps, it was meant to be slight taper ?

[jolihokistix]

Haha, excellent. Confucian rains.