Iran claims RQ-4 shootdown

[tartare]

Just breaking now.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/iran-claims-to-have-shot-down-a-us-drone-20190620-p51zmf.html
If correct, that would be a significant escalation?
A rather expensive and important asset...

[Bob Viking]

Any word on the crew?

Or is it too soon for humour?!

BV

[tartare]

Well - Mike Pompeo would struggle to claim one american harmed ;)

[ericsson16]

https://www.apnews.com/56d15bf24be248c88df168a4fa590bf6

[tartare]

Here we go...

[hunterboy]

I wonder if the UAV operator would suffer any PTSD effects from something like this? I’m guessing flying a UAV is quite immersive?

[AnglianAV8R]

BREAKING: President Trump has urged his administration official to "tone down" their talk about Iran, reminding them that he is not interested in a military confrontation with Tehran, despite the hawkish views of some of his advisors

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1141452318610743296?s=19

[tartare]

US now saying it was a Triton.

[57mm]

"Our glorious Revolutionary Guard took down the American Imperialist jackal drone with one of our limpet mines, salvaged earlier from the decadent western tanker......."

[dead_pan]

Eek. No doubt bits of said drone will now be enroute to Moscow and Beijing

[dead_pan]

If correct, that would be a significant escalation?

For the US, perhaps. Iran is entitled to defend its airspace.

[ORAC]

Over international waters monitoring maritime traffic - and Iranian fast inshore patrol craft. I can see how, after last week, it’s presence would have pissed the Iranians off. They fired on the one monitoring the tankers which were attacked a few days ago.

Should be easy to prove one way or the other. It would have been squawking and showing on ATC radar when hit to show it’s location.

[A_Van]

I wonder if there is a rather "neutral" 3rd party in that area to confirm whether the drone was downed in the iranian airspace or over international waters.
Oman?

[AF03-111]

Over international waters monitoring maritime traffic - and Iranian fast inshore patrol craft. I can see how, after last week, it’s presence would have pissed the Iranians off. They fired on the one monitoring the tankers which were attacked a few days ago.

Should be easy to prove one way or the other. It would have been squawking and showing on ATC radar when hit to show it’s location.

Unless they were in Iranian airspace, which (ahem, allegedly) happened all the time in the Khosrowabad area with US aircraft heading SE out of Iraqi airspace.

[SASless]

If correct, that would be a significant escalation?
A rather expensive and important asset...

Nope! Not at all.

It is considered a cost of doing business and can be used for political purposes after the fact to show hostile intent and culpability by Iran in the Tanker Attacks.

If the Iranians are such peace loving and kindly folk they would not interfere with anything or anyone assisting in providing security for commercial ship traffic would they especially in International Waters or International Airspace.

For sure....they have no legal justification for downing any aircraft or firing upon any vessel in International waters do they...unless one of their vessels are being attacked.

The Sanctions must be putting some real hurt on them....and the radical elements within their government must be acting out over it.

[NutLoose]

Any word on the crew?

Or is it too soon for humour?!

BV

I wonder if they have a ribbon for that situation ;)

[NutLoose]

Eek. No doubt bits of said drone will now be enroute to Moscow and Beijing

I thought they already had some stray ones from Afghanistan etc.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93U.S._RQ-170_incident

[CargoOne]

If the Iranians are such peace loving and kindly folk they would not interfere with anything or anyone assisting in providing security for commercial ship traffic would they especially in International Waters or International Airspace.
For sure....they have no legal justification for downing any aircraft or firing upon any vessel in International waters do they...unless one of their vessels are being attacked.


Would you be surprised if the drone was NOT in international waters? While Iranian leadership were not among the honest people for decades, US military ops have had their fair share of stories too.... I guess we will never know as 3rd parties will not be allowed in and it is a word against word.

[SASless]

I would not be surprised by anything re US military and Non-Military Intelligence gathering operations.

One thing I would for sure be surprised at would be anyone posting here at pprune have any real idea about the matter at hand.

Those that know....darn tooting will not be posting here.

From my view point....we could have dozens of Drones overhead Iran on a 24/7 basis and I would not be bothered about the Iranian response at all.

Drone surveillance should be an adjunct to Satellite and other methods of intelligence gathering as they are subject to interdiction.

[dead_pan]

Assuming warnings were given on guard before the engagement, would the drone operator been aware of these?

[1771 DELETE]

I just hope they knew it was a Triton they were shooting down and not a Poseidon. That really would have been a major escalation.

[VinRouge]

I just hope they knew it was a Triton they were shooting down and not a Poseidon. That really would have been a major escalation.
The Iranians have established sfc- Ultd danger areas extending out to the FIR from the coast. I think they were fed up of the 12 mile sovereign border being honoured but assets operating in their FIR without permission.

its all a big game. No one was hurt and the Iranians have established a red line in the sand. Hell, trump probably sees it as a 180 million cash investment in Grumman.

[AF03-111]

I would not be surprised by anything re US military and Non-Military Intelligence gathering operations.

One thing I would for sure be surprised at would be anyone posting here at pprune have any real idea about the matter at hand.

Those that know....darn tooting will not be posting here.

From my view point....we could have dozens of Drones overhead Iran on a 24/7 basis and I would not be bothered about the Iranian response at all.

Drone surveillance should be an adjunct to Satellite and other methods of intelligence gathering as they are subject to interdiction.

Playing devil's advocate for a moment, how would you feel if it were Russian or Chinese drones overflying your own country?

[SASless]

Playing devil's advocate for a moment, how would you feel if it were Russian or Chinese drones overflying your own country?

Play all you want....the truth of the matter is we are talking Iran, whose government is headed by radical muslim clerics who have announced their intent to obtain nuclear weapons and which funds/supports/directs aggressive military and terror activities in the Middle East.

They are bad actors that bear keeping an eye upon.

[pr00ne]

hunterboy,

"I wonder if the UAV operator would suffer any PTSD effects from something like this? I’m guessing flying a UAV is quite immersive?"

Isn't the RQ-4/MQ-4 operated in a rather different manner to things like the Reaper/Protector in that it is an autonomous 'untethered' system?

[AF03-111]

Correct. Whilst still operated by rated pilots, the level of interaction and immersion is quite different.

[racedo]

Play all you want....the truth of the matter is we are talking SAUDI ARABIA, whose government is headed by radical muslim clerics who have announced their intent to obtain nuclear weapons and which funds/supports/directs aggressive military and terror activities in the Middle East.

They are bad actors that bear keeping an eye upon.

Now I have deliberately changed a word for two but just whose citizens have inflicted more damage on the US ?

Lets see Support for Taliban and Al Qaeda, Support for 9/11 with majority of its citizens the hiackers, aided and supported by SA Diplomats, support for War in Iraq in Anbar province where majority were Sunni by supplying weapons (6% of population / 30% of US Casualties).continued support for IS / AQ in Syria, practising genocide in Yemen, paid for Pakistan nuke weapons and now acquiring its own.

But lets worry about Iran.

[SASless]

Racedo,

Who are the belligerent folks...all the time talking about killing, annihilating, supporting terrorism, goose stepping down the boulevards of Tehran parading their military and Revolutionary Guards?

My vague recollection of history is another bunch once did much the same....where they had parallel military forces of standard army and those swearing allegiance to a radical party leadership.

Don't try to paint these folks as being a bunch of misunderstood Boy Scouts wannabee's.

Remember how they put down the large demonstrations against the Regime not so long ago.....murdering their own people in the streets.

I have my own beefs with the Saudi's....but the Iranian religious nutters are a far bigger problem when it comes to what they have gotten up to over the years.

In their bid to assert control over the Middle East and surrounding areas....they are causing lots of problems.

I say a pox on all their houses if they cannot learn to get along after a couple of thousand years.

[VinRouge]

Racedo,

Who are the belligerent folks...all the time talking about killing, annihilating, supporting terrorism, goose stepping down the boulevards of Tehran parading their military and Revolutionary Guards?

My vague recollection of history is another bunch once did much the same....where they had parallel military forces of standard army and those swearing allegiance to a radical party leadership.

Don't try to paint these folks as being a bunch of misunderstood Boy Scouts wannabee's.

Remember how they put down the large demonstrations against the Regime not so long ago.....murdering their own people in the streets.

I have my own beefs with the Saudi's....but the Iranian religious nutters are a far bigger problem when it comes to what they have gotten up to over the years.

In their bid to assert control over the Middle East and surrounding areas....they are causing lots of problems.

I say a pox on all their houses if they cannot learn to get along after a couple of thousand years.

the USA have been the biggest knobbers on the block in that part of the world for a long while now, if we want to get onto “control”.

As for Saudi vs Iran, no contest. Saudi the biggest group of scoundrels hands down. At least the Iranians have a rich cultural history that predates the USA...

as to dick swinging military parades, pot, kettle, black?

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2019/06/20/president-trump-finally-get-his-military-parade-july-4.html

im not sure the US should be singing about Iranian PR as freedom of the press in the post trumpian world of fake nooos accusations and blocking CNN from the press briefing room.

I love the USA and deploying with you chaps on a regular basis. But Marilyn Manson has a point when he talks about needing to be on your knees to smell your own....

[charliegolf]

At least the Iranians have a rich cultural history that predates the USA...

Who doesn't?

CG

[SASless]

When Brits go to slanging the Americans....it reminds one of the costs associated with bad decisions....perhaps ya'll should have closed up shop over there and joined us over here....sort of like a Brexit circa 1776 style!:rolleyes:

[VinRouge]

When Brits go to slanging the Americans....it reminds one of the costs associated with bad decisions....perhaps ya'll should have closed up shop over there and joined us over here....sort of like a Brexit circa 1776 style!:rolleyes:


Bravo! 🤣

We did try and hold on to the colonies for a while to be fair. I think the White House needed a few licks of paint in between scuffles. Ironic that with the history of American independence, we seem to struggle with the concept that other different races don’t like us poking our noses into their business or territory.

Good to see for of all of trumps foibles, he has sensibly decided that the cost in gold and blood is not a sensible route to go down.

[golfbananajam]

Now I have deliberately changed a word for two but just whose citizens have inflicted more damage on the US ?

Lets see Support for Taliban and Al Qaeda, Support for 9/11 with majority of its citizens the hiackers, aided and supported by SA Diplomats, support for War in Iraq in Anbar province where majority were Sunni by supplying weapons (6% of population / 30% of US Casualties).continued support for IS / AQ in Syria, practising genocide in Yemen, paid for Pakistan nuke weapons and now acquiring its own.

But lets worry about Iran.

As opposed to the USA who funded Al Qaeda during the Russian occupation of Afghanistan, funded the IRA while at the same time welcoming them in and thereby giving them political legitimacy, don't recognise the International war Crimes Courts. Need I go on

[pr00ne]

SASless,

Y'all still speak English, even after 1776, and 1812...

[gearlever]

Play all you want....the truth of the matter is we are talking Iran, whose government is headed by radical muslim clerics who have announced their intent to obtain nuclear weapons and which funds/supports/directs aggressive military and terror activities in the Middle East.

They are bad actors that bear keeping an eye upon.

What about the SAUDIS, US friends?

[dead_pan]

Err Trump has just Tweeted and sounds upset, although he hasn't gone full caps lock

[gearlever]

Osama Bin Laden and alikes terrorized the whole world, not the Iran.
Where did ObL grew up?
Where did his allies come from?

Get real !!!

[RAFEngO74to09]

US DoD Press Conference with 3* from CENTCOM on audio - I'll link when uploaded.

US Navy RQ-4 shot down over international waters - never entered Iranian airspace.

[RAFEngO74to09]

US DoD Statement: scroll through to 13:30 for start

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ea7Kr_5f57E

[SASless]

For all of his faults....Trump by nature does not support more war or foreign entanglements.

His first responses have always been to seek accommodation over confrontation.

That being said....some folks should be careful not to confuse meekness of manner for lack of resolve.

The Iranians may have stepped on their own Pee Pee with this latest evolution they have undertaken.

Trump has been said to think perhaps this might have been a rogue event that was not necessarily blessed by the most senior Iranian Officials

Bolton is headed to Israel....the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the CIA Director rode back to work together after a White House National Security Council meeting today.

The President did not attend that meeting....as it was called for the Heads of Agenices and Departments to come up with options for the President's consideration.

[F-16GUY]

Any word on the crew?

Or is it too soon for humour?!

BV

BV,

Dos Gringos made a song about it. Third verse covers your question. The song itself (in the video) also have some other considerations between the verses. Enjoy

The Predator Eulogy

They shot down the predator
That's one less slot for me
They shot down the predator and it fills my heart with glee
I had a smile when I logged on to AFPC
They shot down the predator
That's one less slot for me.

They shot down the predator
I say let's send some more
Let's fly 'em over Baghdad and then see what's in store
'Cause I heard that the Air Force wants another 24
They shot down the predator
I say let's send some more

They shot down the predator
I wonder how that feels
For that operator who lost his set of wheels
It must feel so defenseless
Like clubbing baby seals
They shot down the predator
I wonder how that feels

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkXya5ycUAI

[RAFEngO74to09]

White House has invited Congressional leaders to Situation Room for briefing at 1500 EST - action likely - SAM site location known - probably won't be there tomorrow !

.

[dead_pan]

His first responses have always been to seek accommodation over confrontation.

Hmm, not sure I agree with your assessment. He was all over the place in Syria, which suggests he is rather susceptible to whispers in his ear, which we've long suspected.

[SASless]

Syria was such an easy thing to deal with....right?:ugh:

[dead_pan]

SAM site location known

If fixed it'll either be in the process of being stripped down, or ringed with close-in defences.

You could almost write the Iranian statement now - all cruise missiles shot down, only minor collateral damage, the great Satan defeated blah blah

[VinRouge]

Err Trump has just Tweeted and sounds upset, although he hasn't gone full caps lock
any cvofeee or Stormy Daniels rants? Or is he just going to grab them by the pussy?

[AnglianAV8R]

Bolton is headed to Israel...

To get his orders ?

[racedo]

Racedo,
Who are the belligerent folks...all the time talking about killing, annihilating, supporting terrorism, goose stepping down the boulevards of Tehran parading their military and Revolutionary Guards?
My vague recollection of history is another bunch once did much the same....where they had parallel military forces of standard army and those swearing allegiance to a radical party leadership.
Don't try to paint these folks as being a bunch of misunderstood Boy Scouts wannabee's.
Remember how they put down the large demonstrations against the Regime not so long ago.....murdering their own people in the streets.
I have my own beefs with the Saudi's....but the Iranian religious nutters are a far bigger problem when it comes to what they have gotten up to over the years.
In their bid to assert control over the Middle East and surrounding areas....they are causing lots of problems.
I say a pox on all their houses if they cannot learn to get along after a couple of thousand years.

Saudi's have been slaughtering and bull dozing villages and towns in Shia area for last 10 years.
Even when reported it is Saudi side that is reacting to "terrorists".

These Iranian religious nutters have zero problems with Jews or Christians living there.
Iran not surprisingly seeks no outside interference.

Saudi's using Child soldiers but US scared to report it becuase the cash stops coming in.

https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/12/middleeast/saudi-arabia-awamiya/index.html

[racedo]

Syria was such an easy thing to deal with....right?:ugh:

Obama and HRC Clusterfcuk just like Libya.

[racedo]

For all of his faults....Trump by nature does not support more war or foreign entanglements.

His first responses have always been to seek accommodation over confrontation.

That being said....some folks should be careful not to confuse meekness of manner for lack of resolve.
.

I fully expect him to respond........ without loss of any life.

This should reduce tension for both sides for a couple of weeks while the backdoor diplomacy that is going on continues.

Edit ...... Interesting that President Trump has indicated that Tehran didn't order it but in all probability a rogue General did, seems like there is extensive fast back channel chatter going on.

A hat out of the bag with Bibi / Trump / Iran meeting would be an interesting one with a mutually agreed peace treaty with all sorts of plans coming into play. KSA would not be happy but who lets be honest who cares.

[jolihokistix]

Good luck hitting that truck, then.

"Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it downed the drone at 4:05am local time when the aircraft entered Iranian airspace near the Kouhmobarak district in southern Hormozgan. Iran used its air defence system known as Third of Khordad to shoot down the drone - a truck-based missile system that can fire up to 30km high, the semi-official Fars news agency reported. Iran's state-run IRNA news agency, citing the IRGC, identified the drone as an RQ-4 Global Hawk (https://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/americas/2019/06/global-hawk-spy-drone-shot-iran-190620171325836.html), which can cost close to to $150m apiece, can fly higher than 16km and stay in the air for more than 24 hours at a time. Zarif, in his Twitter post, said the drone had taken off from the United Arab Emirates in "stealth mode" to avoid detection."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/trump-iran-big-mistake-drone-strike-190620142703718.html

https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1141772824086028288/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E11417 72824086028288&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2019%2F06%2 Ftrump-iran-big-mistake-drone-strike-190620142703718.html

[jolihokistix]

Oh, and Indian navy and drones in the mix there too, it would seem.
Indian warships sent to strategic Gulf waters | Arab News (http://www.arabnews.com/node/1513826/middle-east)

[tartare]

DoD releases shoot down video:
https://gfycat.com/knobbyweightykarakul

Pretty expensive cost of doing business SAS - US$150m - and one of only 42 airframes.
I'd imagine CENTCOM would be pretty pissed?
One assumes it was just doin' what such platforms do - cruising along at around FL60 and using sensors etc to look sideways into Iran from the safety of international airspace.
I'm amazed that something of this size and cost doesn't have really sophisticated ELINT countermeasures, and was able to be shot down in the first place.
Or was this just some kind of lucky shot?

EDIT: To improve survivability, the Global Hawk is fitted with a Raytheon developed AN/ALR-89 (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=AN/ALR-89&action=edit&redlink=1) self-protection suite consisting of the AN/AVR-3 Laser warning receiver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_warning_receiver), AN/APR-49 Radar warning receiver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_warning_receiver) and a jamming system. An ALE-50 towed decoy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ALE-50) also aids in the deception of enemy air defenses.

So - what happened? I thought Iranian missile technology was supposed to be pretty basic...

[kiwi grey]

One assumes it was just doin' what such platforms do - cruising along at around FL600 and using sensors etc to look sideways into Iran from the safety of international airspace.
{snip description of sophisticated self-protection suite}
So - what happened? I thought Iranian missile technology was supposed to be pretty basic...

This

Was it maybe being trolled down low as a provocation or was it actually waaay up yonder and Iranian defences proved rather more capable than expected?

[tartare]

An expensive, jet powered drone optimised for high altitude flight being flown low to provoke?
FAA have banned US civilian flights from the area; reportedly aircraft operating within 45nm at the time of the shootdown.
NY Times now reporting Trump had authorised strikes against Iran, and they were in the initial stages of being executed, before he was convinced to pull back.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/21/united-airlines-halts-some-flights-mumbai-to-avoid-iran-after-drone-attack

[bhunt95]

It's a bad situation. This is no Iraq or Libya. Think the snake Russians would give intel on asset locations. Iran could fire a mass # of missiles our defenses may not to eliminate all of them.

I live in middle missouri by a certain air force base and could tell something was up today. Usually see base personal in town at restaurants. Did not see any out this evening

[RatherBeFlying]

Hormuz is open to free passage of shipping as long as they conform to traffic rules.

As far as Iranian airspace is concerned, was the drone squawking and did it have a clearance:=

If not, it was hostile military traffic:E

[West Coast]

It's a bad situation. This is no Iraq or Libya. Think the snake Russians would give intel on asset locations. Iran could fire a mass # of missiles our defenses may not to eliminate all of them.

I live in middle missouri by a certain air force base and could tell something was up today. Usually see base personal in town at restaurants. Did not see any out this evening


The real way to tell is by the number of pizzas delivered to the Pentagon.

[tartare]

...amd here's the view from the other side:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1Q5VJB-N-k

[jolihokistix]

RT’s music is ... er... dramatic.

[BEagle]

From the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48714414

Perhaps the US has realised that their drone's routing was...in error? That's a difficult, disputed part of the world and something like a missed waypoint could easily cause an invisible territorial line to be crossed if the drone cuts a corner, probably unintended.

[racedo]

From the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48714414

Perhaps the US has realised that their drone's routing was...in error? That's a difficult, disputed part of the world and something like a missed waypoint could easily cause an invisible territorial line to be crossed if the drone cuts a corner, probably unintended.

Routing in error / Rogue General..... cooler heads on both sides may be saying lets hold back a bit.

Iran will not back down but a behind the scenes "Diplomatic" conversation where both insist they were in the right may cool it down a bit. Sadly Bolton / Pompeo will still be pushing for war.

[SASless]

Plenty of good questions for both sides and all parties involved in this situation.

The need for up to date effective intelligence gathering is a must these days especially when one has the capability to perform those kinds of missions.

During the Cold War, the RAF and USAF conducted covert (or even some in your face) overflights of Soviet and Chinese territory so the concept is not new.

At least we are not putting aircrew at risk as we did in those days.

The 64 Dollar question is who shall blink first....the Iranians or the Western Powers and their Allies.


Just posted in the news....Trump called off the strikes ten minutes before they were to take place as he determined the likelihood of 150 deaths to not be a proper outcome for the shooting down of an un-manned drone.

That to me is a good call....and certainly puts the Iranians on notice the US Military is capable of measured response to their provocations.

It also puts them on notice that Trump seeks a peaceful outcome to all of this.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-called-off-retaliatory-strike-against-iran-in-last-minute-wsj

[Just This Once...]

Usually the topic of potential casualties comes before the strike decision. Indeed, it is usually the first point before choosing a response option. Somehow the US got very close to a retaliatory strike before establishing the basics. Unbelievably, POTUS is now providing the excuses for Iran by declaring that the original shoot-down was not orchestrated at Iranian government level, suggesting it was someone much lower down. He also seemed to suggest that shooting down an unmanned aircraft in international airspace was more excusable due to the absence of people.

So does the US feel the need to respond to a SAM attack on an expensive aircraft or not?

[dead_pan]

certainly puts the Iranians on notice the US Military is capable of measured response to their provocations

Err do you think the Iranians didn't know that already? Were they really under impression all the hardware deployed was just for show??

​​​

[SASless]

if the attack had been done....ya'll would be howling that Trump was starting WWIII.....but do carry on!

[Toadstool]

Actually, for once I am in agreement with SAS. Much as I completely disagree with most of what Trump does or says, for once he has acted Presidential.

[Just This Once...]

Which action was presidential - reneging on the nuclear deal, or stoking the rhetoric and sanctions against Iran to the bewilderment of allies, or the authorising of action against 3 targets without knowing the probable casualty figures, or changing his mind after deploying his forces or playing down the matter afterwards as the drone was unmanned?

I've no idea if POTUS is going to act or not, even now. Perhaps this will be another 'only small missile' event like with North Korea.

[Tashengurt]

Actually, for once I am in agreement with SAS. Much as I completely disagree with most of what Trump does or says, for once he has acted Presidential.

Yup. Hurts me to say it but it's almost as if he has some sense of statesmanship after all.

[racedo]

Actually, for once I am in agreement with SAS. Much as I completely disagree with most of what Trump does or says, for once he has acted Presidential.

Trump is not war mongerer, despite his critics. Stopping something and pointing out that 150 deaths is unacceptable for losing an unarmed surveillance drone sends a signal, just like the signal that Iran has sent that it could have shot down a P8 but didn't.

Something is happening in background and Oman is in the thick of it. They have become VG friends with couple of countrys in last couple of years, exited GCC etc.

[dead_pan]

Not sure the Iranians will view it this way, more a lack of resolve. You've got to walk the walk in that neck of the woods. Reminds me of the furore about Obama's red line in Syria, and we know how that turned out

[dogsridewith]

Whether vacillation or strategy, it might have been useful to have a lot more than 150 Iranians spending several minutes thinking they were about to get a serving of Shock & Awe. (For one thing, all the other surveillance assets got to see where and how everyone reacted.)

There is a theory that there is some military advantage derived w/ a crazy leader...something like that the enemy can't plan based on strategically logical moves by his opponent. (I might have read this in John Keegan's "A History of Warfare.")

[air pig]

Usually the topic of potential casualties comes before the strike decision. Indeed, it is usually the first point before choosing a response option. Somehow the US got very close to a retaliatory strike before establishing the basics. Unbelievably, POTUS is now providing the excuses for Iran by declaring that the original shoot-down was not orchestrated at Iranian government level, suggesting it was someone much lower down. He also seemed to suggest that shooting down an unmanned aircraft in international airspace was more excusable due to the absence of people.

So does the US feel the need to respond to a SAM attack on an expensive aircraft or not?

Or was the flight deliberate and there was so many EW aircraft around that the Iranians have just opened up their electronic order of battle.

[hunterboy]

My Iranian neighbours here in my neighbourhood have been talking for years about the power struggle between the vast majority of moderate Iranians and the “old guard “ represented by the Revolutionary Guard. What a pity such a historic and cultured people are being held hostage by a small minority of radicals.
The Iranians aren’t doing so well either.

[racedo]

My Iranian neighbours here in my neighbourhood have been talking for years about the power struggle between the vast majority of moderate Iranians and the “old guard “ represented by the Revolutionary Guard. What a pity such a historic and cultured people are being held hostage by a small minority of radicals.
The Iranians aren’t doing so well either.

Year ago at WC in Russia I met both Iranian and Saudi fans, easy to see who were fun to party with with few wearing head scarves, saw no Saudi women and the males were not fun.

[tartare]

An interesting dilemma - just what response is proportionate to shooting down a high-value UAV?

[jolihokistix]

100 speedboats?

[The Sultan]

All seem to miss the obvious. In a battle to control Trumpet’s strings Putin won out over MBS just like in Syria.

[Easy Street]

My Iranian neighbours here in my neighbourhood have been talking for years about the power struggle between the vast majority of moderate Iranians and the “old guard “ represented by the Revolutionary Guard. What a pity such a historic and cultured people are being held hostage by a small minority of radicals.
The Iranians aren’t doing so well either.

Which goes to show what a dilemma the West faces in its policy options. Externally-enforced regime change is (rightly, IMHO) considered toxic by most after the debacles since 2003. But enabling the regime to sit comfortably, as it would do under the JCPOA, is no help to the good people of Iran over the long run. Change has got to come from within to stick, but that’s not to say an external catalyst would be illegitimate. Look at the revolutions that made the West what it is; many were triggered by interference from afar. Trump’s sanctions may be controversial but if they helped to precipitate a counter-revolution then how harshly would history judge them? I don’t pretend to know for a moment what the answer is and am bemused by the absolutely certainty of some that whatever Trump does is wrong wrong wrong.

[dead_pan]

An interesting dilemma - just what response is proportionate to shooting down a high-value UAV?

Plink a hole in a runway intersection at one of their airbases? V low chance of collateral casualties, unless a planeload of orphans and puppies just so happen to be taking off.... On which topic, were there really no such options?

[Easy Street]

Plink a hole in a runway intersection at one of their airbases? V low chance of collateral casualties, unless a planeload of orphans and puppies just so happen to be taking off.... On which topic, were there really no such options?

I think there is plenty of mileage in total restraint. The US can afford to lose more drones without retaliating provided it can produce firm evidence that they were in international airspace. There are downsides for the Iranians to keep shooting at them, too.

[racedo]

Which goes to show what a dilemma the West faces in its policy options. Externally-enforced regime change is (rightly, IMHO) considered toxic by most after the debacles since 2003. But enabling the regime to sit comfortably, as it would do under the JCPOA, is no help to the good people of Iran over the long run. Change has got to come from within to stick, but that’s not to say an external catalyst would be illegitimate. Look at the revolutions that made the West what it is; many were triggered by interference from afar. Trump’s sanctions may be controversial but if they helped to precipitate a counter-revolution then how harshly would history judge them? I don’t pretend to know for a moment what the answer is and am bemused by the absolutely certainty of some that whatever Trump does is wrong wrong wrong.

So when does the West change its imperialism of deciding what is right / wrong and what population can experience genocide this decade ?

[Easy Street]

So when does the West change its imperialism of deciding what is right / wrong and what population can experience genocide this decade ?

I don’t disagree with your general thrust and take the view that people need to fight their own battles, but you shouldn’t make the West out to be uniquely guilty of imposing its values: the Uighurs of Xinjiang and the Christians of the Middle East are both on the path to extinction right now, it’s just that the long game played by the protagonists (including Western ‘allies’ in the latter case) attracts much less attention than the short games which the West repeatedly gets itself tied up in. You can point to sovereignty and the states system all you like but it’s alternately invoked and ignored by pretty much everyone in the bear pit of international politics.

[ORAC]

They’re not sitting comfortably, that’s exactly why they are trying to provoke a reaction - because economic sanctions are killing them.

The USA has, for once, made the sensible decision to use the main weapons they have - the control of the default currency and banking. Which is why Trump was persuaded to back away from a military response - and look implement additional sanctions.

The loss of the Triton cost the USA about $100M in assets, the additional sanctions will cost Iran a lot lot more......

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/21/politics/trump-iran-sanctions-confusion/index.html

[falcon900]

Easy street makes the key point: it is all about the long game. Take a look at the population growth projections by nationality, race , and religion, and ask yourself who is going to win the long game. It shouldn't take you long to work it out, and in some cases, the game might not be as long as you imagine.

[Easy Street]

They’re not sitting comfortably, that’s exactly why they are trying to provoke a reaction - because economic sanctions are killing them.

The USA has, for once, made the sensible decision to use the main weapons they have...


That was my point about the JCPOA and the potentially misplaced criticism of Trump. He is an economic realist by background and seems (along with his generals) to have a better grip of the realities of international politics than Obama, Hillary or the Pompeo/Bolton gang.

[Timelord]

I wonder if GPS jamming or spoofing played a part in this story?

[dogsridewith]

Whether vacillation or strategy, it might have been useful to have a lot more than 150 Iranians spending several minutes thinking they were about to get a serving of Shock & Awe. (For one thing, all the other surveillance assets got to see where and how everyone reacted.)

Oops.

The first morning TV news I got on this mission hold included "...planes were in the air." But, in the commander's words, we were "locked and loaded," with press now saying the hold order came 10 minutes before the planned launch. So I guess air-raid sirens weren't going off in Iran.

Would Iran have noticed any of the mission prep?

[SASless]

Notice "Prep"....probably not.....but they would definitely notice the "execution" part of the OP.

[AnglianAV8R]

the control of the default currency and banking

Nope. The petro-dollar is past its peak. For example, Saudi Arabia is accepting yuan in payment for oil supplies to China. Russia and China have set up new financial mechanisms for mutual trade, circumventing the USD and associated mechannisms. Times are changing.