View Full Version : Iran with nuclear tipped Missiles....Game Changer?
SASless
8th Jun 2019, 11:39
Iran continues testing missiles and recent reports suggest they are within six months of having a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Is this a game changer or what if true?
What should the Western Powers strategy be?
https://www.janes.com/article/89058/israel-says-iran-continues-ballistic-missile-launches
VinRouge
8th Jun 2019, 12:09
Iran continues testing missiles and recent reports suggest they are within six months of having a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Is this a game changer or what if true?
What should the Western Powers strategy be?
https://www.janes.com/article/89058/israel-says-iran-continues-ballistic-missile-launches
Do nothing. Once the west and the Saudis lose the ability to carry out military action in that part of the world, things will become somewhat more stable. West doesnt like the prospect they will lose that course of action.
One question, other nations have them, so why not iran?
Asturias56
8th Jun 2019, 16:58
Exactly - USA, Russia, UK, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, N Korea... quite a mixed bunch but the world seems to be able to cope
TBH if I was Iranian and looking at Bolton lurching about the scenery threatening regime change and Netanyahu still down the road I'd consider it my patriotic duty to get an H Bomb at all costs ASAP
Also odd there has been limited comment on here about the Chinese built Saudi missile plant that was mentioned in some of the press last week.
VinRouge
8th Jun 2019, 17:21
With the state of democracy in the west, growth of the hard, bordering on extreme right with Farage and Trump, I don’t think we have have any moral higher ground to stand on at present. We are quite frankly a disgrace to the rest of the world.
I wish Iran every success in their future endeavour to protect themselves from the lunacy that our supposed superior political system is presently generating.
etudiant
8th Jun 2019, 22:53
Think that any country with a functioning nuclear power infrastructure is within a few months of a nuclear weapon. The technology is well documented by now, so Japan, Germany, Taiwan and Brazil are surely nuclear capable entities,
Meanwhile, if the Iranians see their co religionists getting slaughtered in Yemen, they are not likely to remain passive, any more than the Turks were when the Cypriots declared Enosis and union with Greece.
Unfortunately, the US has trained the Iranian military to adjust to the US way of warfare in Syria and Iraq, so I do not see any easy pickings in any actual confrontation.
Separately, if memory serves, there was a provocative Adelphi Paper about 20 years back by an Arab author which argued that nuclear weapons proliferation would serve as a stabilizer in interstate relations, especially in the Middle East.
I do not think the author was prescient enough to consider the emergence of non state actors such as Al Qaeda, which perhaps erodes the thesis.
melmothtw
9th Jun 2019, 05:48
...our supposed superior political system...
Given the choice, whose political system would you chose to live under, VinRouge?
weemonkey
9th Jun 2019, 07:59
With the state of democracy in the west, growth of the hard, bordering on extreme right with Farage and Trump, I don’t think we have have any moral higher ground to stand on at present. We are quite frankly a disgrace to the rest of the world.
I wish Iran every success in their future endeavour to protect themselves from the lunacy that our supposed superior political system is presently generating.
I concur with the Iranian sentiments, however the cure for our political system is obviously too bitter a pill for you to take.
VinRouge
9th Jun 2019, 08:39
Given the choice, whose political system would you chose to live under, VinRouge?
Its not about choice. The Chinese will trounce the west as the constraints placed upon the county as western nations by going with the majority (self serving?) view, la democracy, mean china have the competitive edge. What people want and what is good for the country are not the same thing. All considered, the version of democracy where educated or accomplished people got more votes than the rest was a much better system for the UK. Non-Plural voting is turning out to be somewhat of a disaster.
melmothtw
9th Jun 2019, 09:16
The Chinese will trounce the west as the constraints placed upon the county as western nations by going with the majority (self serving?) view, la democracy,
Sorry mate, but that's not even English.
VinRouge
9th Jun 2019, 09:22
Sorry mate, but that's not even English.
system 1. National infra and investment in high tech research plus a 5/10/25 year strategy for the country. Massive investment in education.
system 2. Increased state pension liabilities, increased expenditure on health services, and the cast of Jeremy Kyle with the same voting rights as a university professor.
Clearer?
jimjim1
9th Jun 2019, 11:29
Increased state pension liabilities, increased expenditure on health services
"Increased state pension liabilities, increased expenditure on health services"
You seem to be saying that this is a terrible thing and that the Chinese system is much better.
Presumably you think that the Chinese toss their old people and the sick into the Yellow River or otherwise dispose of them to benefit the totality of their civilisation?
Doesn't sound like much of a civilisation to me.
Iran is run by a bunch of lunatics who subscribe to the ways and mores of a medieval death cult. Religious maniacs with nuclear weapons presents a terrifying prospect to me.
As already noted, I am surprised you are not in either China or Iran - you say it's great, why haven't you left yet?. Maybe you are unable to choose between their various heavenly attractions? Maybe you are too poor to afford the fare? If that is the case please start a web fundraiser thing to raise money for your fare and post details here - I promise to donate. I advise China, you might not last long in Iran.
VinRouge
9th Jun 2019, 11:39
"Increased state pension liabilities, increased expenditure on health services"
You seem to be saying that this is a terrible thing and that the Chinese system is much better.
Presumably you think that the Chinese toss their old people and the sick into the Yellow River or otherwise dispose of them to benefit the totality of their civilisation?
Doesn't sound like much of a civilisation to me.
Iran is run by a bunch of lunatics who subscribe to the ways and mores of a medieval death cult. Religious maniacs with nuclear weapons presents a terrifying prospect to me.
As already noted, I am surprised you are not in either China or Iran - you say it's great, why haven't you left yet?. Maybe you are unable to choose between their various heavenly attractions? Maybe you are too poor to afford the fare? If that is the case please start a web fundraiser thing to raise money for your fare and post details here - I promise to donate. I advise China, you might not last long in Iran.
i am not advocating systems as extreme as either China or Iran. Simply pointing out in a system where self interest prevails, a sensible balanced and researched compromise cannot be reached. State pensions currently consume 12% of GDP, yes, gdp, not tax revenue. It’s growing at an unsustainable rate meaning that those of working age currently contributing are likely to either not see a state pension before 70+ or will see it means tested. Mainly in part to the triple lock introduced for political reasons. That is a lot of money to be spending on a system that was supposed to be a safety net and instead had metamorphosed into something much different. Good luck to the politician pointing out to the populace that expenditure on state pension and healthcare has now led to the loss of education grants, massive cuts to the state education system, defence, Infra projects, r and d research and policing. You can’t blame it on all on the financial crisis when it’s being spent elsewhere. We have just had over 30% of the participating population vote for a party in the European elections that doesn’t even have a manifesto. So please spare me excuses that the democratic system is in any way functional.
Whether the other systems are undesirable to you is an utterly moot point. The Chinese are now matching and in some cases overtaking western tech in terms of quality, particularly in the fields of electronics, quantum computing and Generalised AI. We can bang on about moral higher ground as much as we like, in 50 years, it will be them and not us that are setting global trends.
as to Iran “Death cult”, sounds like someone has been falling for the free trump kool aid. Interesting developments over the pond at the moment, something about a big wall to keep the cockroaches out, interment of immigrant children, intelligent creation vs science, climate change denial and banning abortion in a number of states. Not too sure accusations of lunacy need to be thrown Eastward at the moment.
5 and 10 year plans aren’t what they’re cracked up to be, as history proves. The capitalist system of allowing millions, instead of a committee, to decide tends to produce better solutions. No 5 year plan will ever produce an Apple, Google or Hollywood.
Japan was supposed to overtake the USA and didn’t - and China is already experiencing an ageing population, lack of raw resources and a shrinking overseas market. Unlike democratic India.
I await the future with interest.
VinRouge
9th Jun 2019, 12:07
5 and 10 year plans aren’t what they’re cracked up to be, as history proves. The capitalist system of allowing millions, instead of a committee, to decide tends to produce better solutions. No 5 year plan will ever produce an Apple, Google or Hollywood.
Japan was supposed to overtake the USA and didn’t - and China is already experiencing an ageing population, lack of raw resources and a shrinking overseas market. Unlike democratic India.
I await the future with interest.
so do I.
Recent behaviour towards tariffs and action against Huawei shows some desperation rather than strategy. It’s all a bit knee jerk. China’s model has long cast aside the industry by committee model, hence Huawei now rapidly approaching being market leaders in mobile smart phone production.
China own vast swathes of rare earth resources in Africa, if they shut off supply to the west, we have issues, particularly in our high tech sectors.
racedo
9th Jun 2019, 13:42
Anybody got photos of those Saudi Missile silos where they point for a launch in direction of Israel, Iran and An.Other.
Saudi bought and piad for Pakistani nukes and seemingly its not a concern even though they openly kill journalists, promote terror and engage in genocide.
SASless
9th Jun 2019, 14:15
as to Iran “Death cult”, sounds like someone has been falling for the free trump kool aid. Interesting developments over the pond at the moment, something about a big wall to keep the cockroaches out, interment of immigrant children, intelligent creation vs science, climate change denial and banning abortion in a number of states. Not too sure accusations of lunacy need to be thrown Eastward at the moment.
If you had any understanding of the problem on the border you would not be saying what you did.
I would suggest you consider a "for instance".....we are seeing approximately 150,000 illegal aliens enter the Country each MONTH.
How would you cure that problem?
We have already encountered ISIS efforts to utilize that avenue for sending their Fighters here.
It is assumed, as there is no way to know with any real accuracy, there are 15-20 Million Illegal Aliens in the Country.
Care to explain to all of us how that is a "good" thing for the Nation?
Neither Political Party, when each had a Veto proof majority in Congress AND held the White House, have done anything to fix our border or immigration law.
Trump....is trying.
Do give the Man credit when it is due.
He just negotiated an Agreement with Mexico re that problem using the promise of Tariffs if they did not begin to take some real action.
That is one hell of a lot more than all of his predecessors and Congress has done.
Now back to the Thread Topic.....why does Iran, Syria, and other nations seek to obtain Nuclear Weapons?
Are they afraid they cannot find protection against such attacks by the Major Powers that already have them.....and why would they not be able to find a benefactor?
Could it be their support of terror groups and other belligerent activities make them pariahs diplomatically?
China own vast swathes of rare earth resources in Africa Rare earths..... aren’t. The name refers to their low concentrations, not their overall rarity - which is why the are commonly extracted as a by-product of the processing of another element. Other plants which were shut as China undercut their market can easily be reopened.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/17/17246444/rare-earth-metals-discovery-japan-china-monopoly
VinRouge
9th Jun 2019, 15:22
Rare earths..... aren’t. The name refers to their low concentrations, not their overall rarity - which is why the are commonly extracted as a by-product of the processing of another element. Other plants which were shut as China undercut their market can easily be reopened.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/17/17246444/rare-earth-metals-discovery-japan-china-monopoly
36% in their own national reserves and 95% control of global supplies. Sure mine your own. With exponential growth in demand and a limited supply, Tesla can forget its electric car revolution without cost inflation which will make the product completely unaffordable.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_industry_in_China
as for trump protecting the motherland from hordes of terrorists, he could better protect his people with widespread gun control. It’s a shame that a fervent nationalistic agenda seems to take priority over unpopular political measures that may, you know, stop the widespread gun deaths, school massacres and disgruntled employee shoot ups that take place on a daily basis in the USA. Oh, and 140 times as likely to kill you in the USA than terrorism. But go ahead, Make America Great Again.
Could it be their support of terror groups and other belligerent activities make them pariahs diplomatically?
im not entirely sure that the bedfellows we have made with the house of Saud are the best example. Wahabbism isn’t pretty. Neither is chopping up a citizen in the Turkish embassy. The biggest tragedy of course is that Iran have approached Saudi to attempt a diplomatic resolution. To be told clearly and repeatedly that The Saudi people aren’t interested.
SASless
9th Jun 2019, 15:33
You miss the point dear boy.....there are lots of problems and issues that need dealing with...most of which are created by Politicians pushing their own agenda rather than dealing with real problems.
Why do you think trying to reduce the threat of terror attacks is of a lesser priority than the attacks you mention?
The politicians create problems then try to come up with solutions that do not address the root cause of the problem.
Preventing the Iranian Regime from gaining nuclear weapons is just one of those issues....as is illegal immigration...gun violence....deficit spending....protection of intellectual property and a myriad of problems.
I perceive you care not for the Man and that generates an inability to accept he is in fact getting something done despite all of the opposition he faces from the Establishment.
He is not a very likeable person but he was not elected for his good graces and articulate speech....he was elected to effect change....change that is needed.
Congress has failed to get the job done and in far too many cases is the exact cause of our problems.
But then you elect not to explain why you think illegal immigration and failed border control is of no concern to you.
VinRouge
9th Jun 2019, 15:37
Why do you think trying to reduce the threat of terror attacks is of a lesser priority than the attacks you mention?
Because the nationalist agenda it promotes ahem, appeals to the average intelligence and reasoning skills of the electorate. A bit like the moustachioed German Chancellor in the 30s. He is using directed anger generated from the start of the automation revolution (with associated widescale job losses in steel, coal and the like) to get himself votes based upon all of those illegals coming across and taking our jobs.
i am not advocating systems as extreme as either China or Iran. Simply pointing out in a system where self interest prevails, a sensible balanced and researched compromise cannot be reached. State pensions currently consume 12% of GDP, yes, gdp, not tax revenue. It’s growing at an unsustainable rate meaning that those of working age currently contributing are likely to either not see a state pension before 70+ or will see it means tested. Mainly in part to the triple lock introduced for political reasons. That is a lot of money to be spending on a system that was supposed to be a safety net and instead had metamorphosed into something much different. Good luck to the politician pointing out to the populace that expenditure on state pension and healthcare has now led to the loss of education grants, massive cuts to the state education system, defence, Infra projects, r and d research and policing. You can’t blame it on all on the financial crisis when it’s being spent elsewhere. We have just had over 30% of the participating population vote for a party in the European elections that doesn’t even have a manifesto. So please spare me excuses that the democratic system is in any way functional.
Whether the other systems are undesirable to you is an utterly moot point. The Chinese are now matching and in some cases overtaking western tech in terms of quality, particularly in the fields of electronics, quantum computing and Generalised AI. We can bang on about moral higher ground as much as we like, in 50 years, it will be them and not us that are setting global trends.
as to Iran “Death cult”, sounds like someone has been falling for the free trump kool aid. Interesting developments over the pond at the moment, something about a big wall to keep the cockroaches out, interment of immigrant children, intelligent creation vs science, climate change denial and banning abortion in a number of states. Not too sure accusations of lunacy need to be thrown Eastward at the moment.
Sorry Vinrouge, Although it is still lots of money, the UK actually spends less than 8% of GDP on state pensions, not sure where you got 12% from.
VinRouge
9th Jun 2019, 16:37
Sorry Vinrouge, Although it is still lots of money, the UK actually spends less than 8% of GDP on state pensions, not sure where you got 12% from.
Aah, yep, good point. The 12% figure ive read recently, possibly the future projection with anticipated Growth plus accounting from liabilities from the boomer generation hitting state retirement. Ive read David Willetts book "The Pinch" recently so possibly from there. The growth as a percentage of GDP (seeing how much we are devoting as a percentage of the economy) is below. In short, social protection (of which state pension is by far the largest portion) accounts for over 240 billion, compared to 46 billion for defence ad 102 billion for education.
link (https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/rev/google_vis.php?title=UK%20Pensions%20Spending%20Since%20Worl d%20War%20II&year=1947_2019&sname=&units=p&bar=0&stack=1&size=800_600&spending0=0.90_2.96_2.88_2.79_1.98_2.12_2.18_2.11_2.32_2.33_ 2.31_2.87_2.97_2.87_3.09_3.15_3.38_3.40_3.73_3.73_3.73_3.91_ 3.76_3.83_3.71_3.96_4.04_4.49_4.56_4.71_4.70_4.66_4.60_4.68_ 5.00_5.05_5.02_4.86_4.73_4.85_4.68_4.34_4.22_4.20_4.50_4.52_ 5.28_5.96_5.64_5.81_5.96_5.92_6.66_6.73_7.18_7.28_7.01_6.80_ 6.88_6.76_6.68_6.89_6.94_7.53_7.58_7.85_8.14_8.01_8.07_8.08_ 7.84_7.72_7.78&legend=Pensions-total&source=a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a _a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a _a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_e)
melmothtw
9th Jun 2019, 17:00
I'm still struggling to see the link between what the UK spends on pensions and, 'Iran with nuclear tipped Missiles....Game Changer?'
Agreed, melmothtw. This whole thread is getting boring. Ignore at leisure.
beardy
9th Jun 2019, 21:03
It's entertaining reading human vs chatbot 😁
dr dre
11th Jun 2019, 00:00
Preventing the Iranian Regime from gaining nuclear weapons is just one of those issues....
Which is exactly what the Nuclear deal was meant to do, you know the one which every international monitoring organisation (including Trump’s own State Department) said Iran was in compliance with?
I perceive you care not for the Man and that generates an inability to accept he is in fact getting something done despite all of the opposition he faces from the Establishment.
His Secretary of State is a former CIA director.
His Secretary of Treasury is a former Goldman Sachs executive.
His Attorney General was the former GHW Bush Administration Attorney General.
His Secretary of Education is a former politcial lobbyist.
His Secratary’s of Energy and Agriculture are former Republican politicians and every other cabinet Secretary is a former long term government employee in a various federal departments
His Chief of Staff is a long time Republican politician.
His CIA director is a long term CIA employee.
And of course his National Security Advisor is the epitome of the word “establishment” having established himself as the prime neocon of the last few decades.
Every single member of the Trump Administration is a member of this so called “establishment” whether you like it or not. Instead of “draining the swamp” he drained it, found the most disgusting, vile establishment creatures at the bottom and put them in his administration (Bolton, Pompeo etc)
SASless
11th Jun 2019, 02:38
Odd isn't it.....a Republican President enlisting Republicans to serve in his administration....imagine that!
Did not Obama fill his administration with.....Democrats?
Just imagine picking a long term career CIA Employee to be the Director of the .....CIA who would have thunk it?
I think you doth protest too much.
AnglianAV8R
11th Jun 2019, 10:37
Every single member of the Trump Administration is a member of this so called “establishment” whether you like it or not. Instead of “draining the swamp” he drained it, found the most disgusting, vile establishment creatures at the bottom and put them in his administration (Bolton, Pompeo etc)"Keep your friends close and your enemies closer"
Good Vibs
14th Jun 2019, 15:25
Another Proverb....Birds of a feather flock together.
A good word to remember is ....Charlatan
golfbananajam
14th Jun 2019, 16:04
He just negotiated an Agreement with Mexico re that problem using the promise of Tariffs if they did not begin to take some real action.
Sorry, that's not negotiation, it's bullying and one that will likely come back to bite the citizens of USA.
That isn't to say that there isn't an II problem on the US-Mexico border, there is, in the same way that some EU countries face an II problem from places such as Africa. I don't know what the solution is, I suspect you need to go to the country of origin of the II to understand why they think their preferred country of destination is the right place or a better place to be. In the EU, an immigrant is supposed to be "processed" by the country within the EU that they first set foot in, some of the EU member states, most notably France, seem to ignore that.
Until then, we have to be careful that we don't confuse legal immigration with illegal immigration with refugees