View Full Version : Current retirement figures.
OK4Wire
9th Apr 2019, 00:31
A friend showed me the latest seniority list a few days ago, which was interesting.
Here are some numbers compared to the list from 12 months ago (Apr 18 to Apr 19).
The most junior named pilot in April 18 moved up 177 positions (3238 to 3061). This implies that 177 pilots left the company (5.46%).
There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left.
The most junior pax Captain moved up 83 positions, and remained the most junior Captain! In other words, of the 177 that left, 83 were Captains, and no Captains were trained to replace them.
Of the 166 that joined, only 14 were FOs. I don't know how many SOs were in the 177 leavers, but losing front-seaters at a rate of even 100 per year is not sustainable, no matter how much spin is put on "sustainable resignation rate". Any normal, rationally-run business would do something to keep their people (and it's not "forcing trainers").
24 Captains were forecast to retire (to reach age 55 or 65) in 2018, thus we are losing Captains at three times the forecast rate. This year’s forecast retirements are 45.
Those numbers are sound and when retirements hit in 20-21 this place will fall apart. Hence a new contract and demanded training.
markontop
9th Apr 2019, 01:33
Those numbers are sound and when retirements hit in 20-21 this place will fall apart. Hence a new contract and demanded training.
If you cannot think of 13 different reasons not to go into training. Remember this, it should a prerequisite to be able to respect those you work for and with. Otherwise you are rushing towards ' mercenary' territory. In a well established and respected airline those that 'volunteered' were the last people to be asked. As to an individual their motivation was equal measure, notoriety, greed and self interest.
jonathon68
9th Apr 2019, 02:48
2019 44 retirements
2020 58
2021 53
2022 51
2023 58
2024 57
2025 58
2026 47
2027 70
2028 62
2029 73
2030 76
2031 81
2032 101
"The most junior pax Captain moved up 83 positions, and remained the most junior Captain! In other words, of the 177 that left, 83 were Captains, and no Captains were trained to replace them."
No exactly correct, The most junior Capt(747 for various reasons) will actually be way down the seniority list(and will be the most junior Capt for quite a while until a lot of F/O's slot in front of them) and may have moved up 83 spots as a result of F/O's more senior to them leaving as well as Captain's leaving.
I only moved up the Captain list 15 spots in the last year and I am pretty junior on my fleet, so that is net 15 which takes into account Captains senior to me leaving and F/O's senior to me slotting in ahead of me(as happens when guys pass a second kick at it or come back off a base for a command after deferring it for a while)
positionalpor
9th Apr 2019, 08:44
Meantime more chaps are leaving across ranks.
last I spoke with: 2 NA FO 2 Aussies (1 Fo 1 So) and 1 skipper is waiting to hear. This in the last 28 days.
dragon man
9th Apr 2019, 08:54
If the experience in Qantas is anything to go on the bulk of pilots are retiring at or just before 60, plus you have medical retirements which with the bulk of our pilots 50 plus has been accelerating. What I’m trying to say is that the company will lose far more than those numbers above.
Don’t worry, it is all ‘budgetted for’...(by the same staff that did the fuel hedge)
OK4Wire
10th Apr 2019, 01:21
DDOF,
That's why I mentioned most junior PAX Captain, not most junior Captain.
For you to only move up 15 spots puts you in the first three pages of the seniority list, so not sure what you meant by "on my fleet". I didn't look at fleet seniority at all, just the ASL.
DDDOF
10th Apr 2019, 07:52
Sorry, misread that “Pax Capt”
However my seniority number has only change by 15 in the last year and I’m in the low 1200’s
OK4Wire
10th Apr 2019, 08:22
Sorry, misread that “Pax Capt”
However my seniority number has only change by 15 in the last year and I’m in the low 1200’s
Then I'm not understanding what you are looking at.
Our illustrious Pilot "Leader" moved up 31 spots, and he is below 200.
Someone who was 1250 in Apr 18 has moved to 1183 now, a change of 67, so I remain confused how you can only move 15; you are looking at the Master Aircrew Seniority List, not fleet?
DDDOF
10th Apr 2019, 12:08
LOL, i really need to RTFQ sorry for confusion OK4Wire
I have moved up 15 spots so far this year, as in from Jan1 2019.
So totally disregard, my first post of earlier I totally see how the numbers make sense now, Guess I was talking out of my ass again.
Liam Gallagher
10th Apr 2019, 14:09
Post deleted
OK4Wire
11th Apr 2019, 01:13
:ok:
(more characters)
Asturias56
11th Apr 2019, 15:10
"There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left"
a drop of 11 pilots in total out of 3233 = 0.3% less - you wouldn't notice - it's in the noise TBH
If it's as bad as most posters on here say it is why did 166 people join? Did they Shanghai them? (sorry....)
BusyB
11th Apr 2019, 16:17
Doesn't include those that joined after Apr18 and left (or got sacked) before now.
cxorcist
12th Apr 2019, 00:08
"There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left"
a drop of 11 pilots in total out of 3233 = 0.3% less - you wouldn't notice - it's in the noise TBH
If it's as bad as most posters on here say it is why did 166 people join? Did they Shanghai them? (sorry....)
Sorry to burst your bubble, but doesn’t CX/KA have any growth ambitions? If so, how do you do that with declining pilot numbers. Last time I checked, 3 man long haul wasn’t exactly the Savior CX was hoping for. I’m guessing CMP is more of the same. Looks great on paper, but in real life... more broken patterns, fatigue, reserve utilization, etc.
Btw, CX is sending approximately two dozen 777-300ER back to the lessors. I’m thinking all those A50s aren’t actually growth. Every time I pass through HKG, I marvel at how many CX airplanes are parked all over the airport. Then when I leave, hardly any of them have moved. They just sit there all nicely buttoned up and losing money. All is not well in CX land, contrary to the song and dance in the weekly updates.
cannot
12th Apr 2019, 03:15
But CXORCIST ,
you don’t understand fuel is so expensive , it’s actually cheaper to leave the aircraft parked at the bay . Think how much money we are saving by leaving the aircraft parked
24 , 777 300-ER’s is close to half the entire fleet , that should free up some pilots . Crew shortage solved
Sorry to burst your bubble, but doesn’t CX/KA have any growth ambitions? If so, how do you do that with declining pilot numbers. Last time I checked, 3 man long haul wasn’t exactly the Savior CX was hoping for. I’m guessing CMP is more of the same. Looks great on paper, but in real life... more broken patterns, fatigue, reserve utilization, etc.
Btw, CX is sending approximately two dozen 777-300ER back to the lessors. I’m thinking all those A50s aren’t actually growth. Every time I pass through HKG, I marvel at how many CX airplanes are parked all over the airport. Then when I leave, hardly any of them have moved. They just sit there all nicely buttoned up and losing money. All is not well in CX land, contrary to the song and dance in the weekly updates.
talking about parked planes, we were taxying out the other day and counted over 20 are parked behind the midfield terminal, usually it's the 6-7 sitting in front of haeco waiting for work... but 20+ planes including the haeco ones was an interesting sight
Apple Tree Yard
12th Apr 2019, 13:17
It reminds me of the organised "sick out" in 1999. Rows of shiny new aircraft parked at where the new terminal building now sits. Quite a site. It seems we may have effectively accomplished the same thing again, this time by seeing their pool of pilots slowly but inexorably evaporate away. Not surprised, as on my European trip this past week, all three of my crew were leaving for greener (and almost assuredly happier) pastures.
cxorcist
12th Apr 2019, 13:56
I would very much like to see the CX aircraft utilization numbers. Remember, a decade or so ago, when the Management would brag about the very high average daily utilization of the 747-400 passenger and freighter fleets. Now, you never hear a thing about that. I wonder why that is???
Asturias56
12th Apr 2019, 15:57
I'd suggest profitability comes before "growth" - looking around the Airline scene right now the "growth" airlines seem to be the ones going bust
cxorcist
12th Apr 2019, 16:29
I'd suggest profitability comes before "growth" - looking around the Airline scene right now the "growth" airlines seem to be the ones going bust
So, is it profitable to park 77Ws all over the airport? Are you saying CX has mismanaged its fleet size, its pilot group’s size, or both?
They certainly mismanaged the fuel hedges. There’s no arguing that. Paying more for fuel than ALL your competitors certainly doesn’t help profitability.
mngmt mole
12th Apr 2019, 23:40
No, you are absolutely correct. Further, if they hadn't wasted all those billions, they could have improved what is now a "third-world" pay and benefit package, thereby retaining and attracting the pilots they need. Instead, they have now managed to create a situation where they have 3000+ employees actively working against the company's best interests, most of whom are looking for a new employer. Epic own goal. Well done CX management.
Farman Biplane
13th Apr 2019, 00:29
Not quite as epic as Jet and Etihad’s own goals! Standby for some desperate pilots comparing unemployment COS with COS18......
mngmt mole
13th Apr 2019, 00:38
That is the problem for anyone pretending (self-delusion) that CX can provide a career: CX can hire pilots from ANYWHERE, including people who are willing to work for FAR less than you could ever accept. The fact is, CX management have already decided to morph the airline into the sanctuary for the worlds refugee pilots, knowing they will always work for less, and be more willing to accept ongoing degradation's to their COS. That is why someone who is from a first world country must accept it's over and make their way home to a proper employer, one which can't hire from outside their own borders. CX can (and will) always find someone who will work for less than you.
Asturias56
13th Apr 2019, 11:28
I think Mole has it right - and it's not just CX.
The airline business is expanding rapidly in what we laughingly used to call the "third World" - that's where the expansion in jobs will be (just look at the Airbus & Boeing order books). These will be local airlines and they will want their terms and conditions to reflect local values and costs. There will be a big push to replace expat pilots with locals on local terms. And for local pilots those terms and that job will still be very very attractive compared to other jobs on offer.
CX has always been a bit of an anomaly, or rather a colonial era hold-over, with expensive expat crews in what is now a very different place. After 20 years it's not surprising the screws are being tightened - TBH I'm surprised it took so long.
If you work there you either accept that you still (currently) have a damn good package but it will be constantly eroded or you bail out and try and find a similar package elsewhere - tho' I suspect many will find that with the rise of the LCO's in the western world those packages are harder and harder to find.
You can sit and moan about contracts, and the way things were , and what you thought you were getting into 10+ years ago or you can shape up or ship out. It's a choice many people face in all sorts of jobs these days - especially in the ex-pat communities.
cxorcist
13th Apr 2019, 13:59
I think Mole has it right - and it's not just CX.
The airline business is expanding rapidly in what we laughingly used to call the "third World" - that's where the expansion in jobs will be (just look at the Airbus & Boeing order books). These will be local airlines and they will want their terms and conditions to reflect local values and costs. There will be a big push to replace expat pilots with locals on local terms. And for local pilots those terms and that job will still be very very attractive compared to other jobs on offer.
CX has always been a bit of an anomaly, or rather a colonial era hold-over, with expensive expat crews in what is now a very different place. After 20 years it's not surprising the screws are being tightened - TBH I'm surprised it took so long.
If you work there you either accept that you still (currently) have a damn good package but it will be constantly eroded or you bail out and try and find a similar package elsewhere - tho' I suspect many will find that with the rise of the LCO's in the western world those packages are harder and harder to find.
You can sit and moan about contracts, and the way things were , and what you thought you were getting into 10+ years ago or you can shape up or ship out. It's a choice many people face in all sorts of jobs these days - especially in the ex-pat communities.
Mostly reasonable post. However, one would be hard pressed to argue that CX’s mismanagement hasn’t harmed the airline and its employees. They didn’t just face market pressures. They coupled them with horrible decisions about many things. The truth is that Hong Kong is still a VERY lucrative market. Yes, there is competition, but CX is still the only full service airline with a hub in HK. CX’s market position only got stronger as it integrated KA, and it will do so further with HKE. The CX group is one of the world’s ONLY airlines that couples a robust cargo market with passenger flights. Most airlines survive primarily on passenger revenue. Not CX, a significant amount of its revenue comes from freighters and belly space on passenger flights. It’s a very profitable setup. To argue that CX cannot afford expat costs is debatable. If it is true, the gross mismanagement hasn’t helped.
Asturias56
13th Apr 2019, 15:25
CXorcist makes some very good points - my only issue is that I can't think of a single Airline CEO or Board that would see good income figures as a reason to pay their staff more than they absolutely have to.
The old days of reputation, style, image are passing in all but a few, very upmarket industries (such as watches and handbags and maybe hotels)
Personally I regret this deeply - the rise of modern management, high finance and MBA's has seen a terrible cost in jobs, stability, and respect for both workers and customers IMHO
Unfortunately that's the modern world, across the board , and we have no choice (short of winning the Lottery) but to work within a system which is quite unpleasant I'm afraid.........
cxorcist
13th Apr 2019, 17:22
Could you elaborate for this ignoramus what it is that CX does that makes it a "full service airline" that HK Airlines doesn't do?
Thanks.
HKA’s route map and frequencies outside of Asia are minuscule compared to CX. Also, the freight hauling capabilities of HKA are insignificant relative to CX. Lastly, one world and other code share agreements are far lesser at HKA. The cabin product is probably mox nix at this point except first class on some of CX’s main longhaul routes.
Slasher1
13th Apr 2019, 18:19
CXorcist makes some very good points - my only issue is that I can't think of a single Airline CEO or Board that would see good income figures as a reason to pay their staff more than they absolutely have to.
The old days of reputation, style, image are passing in all but a few, very upmarket industries (such as watches and handbags and maybe hotels)
Personally I regret this deeply - the rise of modern management, high finance and MBA's has seen a terrible cost in jobs, stability, and respect for both workers and customers IMHO
Unfortunately that's the modern world, across the board , and we have no choice (short of winning the Lottery) but to work within a system which is quite unpleasant I'm afraid.........
I don't know that I agree with this; at least in terms of doom and gloom for the pilot market.
There are certainly great paying jobs out there -- particularly with US majors. If pay is what you're looking for. So there are great economic opportunities. AND you have to realize that pay is a relative thing--absolute values are completely meaningless because they have to be taken in context to where one lives. Even within a country, there is a HUGE cost of living difference (cost for a certain desired standard of living). What may take 50,000 units in one place can take in excess of 400,000 in another location--even in the same country. Hong Kong is cost of living in most nations' higher priced venues on steroids.
There is ALSO a great deal more to life than just pay.....much much more.
A person spends a great deal of his or her time working. I can think of few things worse than being miserable under job conditions one hates. So if you can't enjoy what you're doing--or somehow make it in to something you DO like doing--I think you're pissing away your life. And will greatly regret the decision not to move on to something you DO enjoy.
You have to remember the person who makes your future is YOU. One can sit and whine about how things suck, or one can take actions to live a life of fulfillment one enjoys.
cxorcist
13th Apr 2019, 20:35
I’ll add to Slasher’s comments that CX has a functioning and viable mechanism to defray the very high cost of living in Hong Kong, overseas bases. Sadly, the company views these as recruitment and retention tools (carrots) more than cost reduction. The pilots on bases receive no expat allowances because the cost of living is generally much lower on bases than in HK. Nevertheless, CX hates bases because they have to comply with local labour laws. They’d rather put downward pressure on wages and work rules in Hong Kong where the laws don’t protect employees particularly well. It’s a sad state of affairs which is causal to a very demoralized and angry pilot group at CX.
plainpilot11
13th Apr 2019, 20:55
I’ll add to Slasher’s comments that CX has a functioning and viable mechanism to defray the very high cost of living in Hong Kong, overseas bases. Sadly, the company views these as recruitment and retention tools (carrots) more than cost reduction. The pilots on bases receive no expat allowances because the cost of living is generally much lower on bases than in HK. Nevertheless, CX hates bases because they have to comply with local labour laws. They’d rather put downward pressure on wages and work rules in Hong Kong where the laws don’t protect employees particularly well. It’s a sad state of affairs which is causal to a very demoralized and angry pilot group at CX.
And one only has to look at the pent-up demand that is backlogged with the current base openings and do some rough calculations to see that with the current prospectus’s for openings, it’ll still be YEARS before anyone but the most senior get a base. Over 100 requests for 5 openings in LAX,
more than that for YVR. There’s no meaningful openings. And there won’t be more that make a dent in the desire for most to be out of HKG. For 95% of Pilot’s that want a base, this current opening was no more than a demoralizing awareness that most will NEVER be on a base.
Time to Flee.
Amber Vibes
14th Apr 2019, 17:53
How do you know how many applied for each base slot, Plainpilot?
And one only has to look at the pent-up demand that is backlogged with the current base openings and do some rough calculations to see that with the current prospectus’s for openings, it’ll still be YEARS before anyone but the most senior get a base. Over 100 requests for 5 openings in LAX,
more than that for YVR. There’s no meaningful openings. And there won’t be more that make a dent in the desire for most to be out of HKG. For 95% of Pilot’s that want a base, this current opening was no more than a demoralizing awareness that most will NEVER be on a base.
Time to Flee.
TurningFinalRWY36
14th Apr 2019, 21:45
Amber Vibes dont be so quick to attack. It is quite simple. Just look at your position on the permanent basing page on crew direct..........
So many guys in CX shoot first and ask questions later. No wonder we are our own worst enemy
Amber Vibes
14th Apr 2019, 22:14
Amber Vibes dont be so quick to attack. It is quite simple. Just look at your position on the permanent basing page on crew direct..........
So many guys in CX shoot first and ask questions later. No wonder we are our own worst enemy
There is no agenda in my post other than to obtain information. No one is shooting, no one is attacking. I was genuinely curious where the figures came from --- that is all.
plainpilot11
17th Apr 2019, 16:59
How do you know how many applied for each base slot, Plainpilot?
No worries. Yup, it’s in Crew direct in the basings page. Just click “view” under my position. FYI I didn’t take your reply to be sarcastic at all! Have a great day!
Amber Vibes
18th Apr 2019, 05:44
No worries. Yup, it’s in Crew direct in the basings page. Just click “view” under my position. FYI I didn’t take your reply to be sarcastic at all! Have a great day!
:ok: Thanks and likewise, Plainpilot.