The utter dishonesty of the Canberra system – MH370

[Dick Smith]

Many will know that the Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has proposed a legislative change in Parliament which reinforces the unique Civil Aviation Act and the words “CASA must regard the safety of air navigation as the most important consideration.”

Of course, this means that safety is more important than anything else, including cost.

If that is true, can I ask a simple question? Why isn’t the Deputy Prime Minister pushing for the search to be reinstated for MH370?

You got it! Because the powers that be have decided that the extra cost is more important than the extra safety they may gained by finding out what actually happened!

It is clear that not only were eight Australians killed, but Australians are flying all the time on the Boeing 777, which could have an inherent fault. Only yesterday, a Qantas pilot said to me that he does not believe in the murder/suicide theory and believes there is an airworthiness problem with the aircraft – it is tied up with an oxygen cylinder that could blow up.

Of course, we see the utter hypocrisy of Canberra – not one word from Mr Carmody (the Director of Aviation Safety) and not one word from the Deputy Prime Minister or his Chief of Staff, or his head of PR.

I have called for a small levy to be put on air tickets. Ten cents would raise $270 million from the 2.7 billion passengers, so the search could continue and the aircraft to be found. After all, small fortunes were spent in finding the African Airways 747 in the Indian Ocean and the Air France Airbus A330 in the Atlantic.

Once the flight data recorders were found, safety was improved. It is unlikely that form of accident would happen again.

Yes, I know, lots of readers here believe it was a simple (if you could call it that) murder/suicide and nothing will be learnt from finding the aircraft. However, anyone who flies, and anyone who has relatives who fly, should be very wary. There is a chance that the Qantas pilot is correct and there is a problem with the aircraft.

I ask everyone to support me in a campaign to get the search going again (this time probably in the correct area would be a good idea), find the flight data recorders, and show that we are really interested in passenger safety.

No, of course! I have suddenly realised – this won’t be paid for by general aviation. Ten cents on an air ticket could mean ten cents less profit per air ticket by the airlines, so they will completely stop this from happening.

I wonder if the Minister will stand up to the powerful and truely put safety as the most important consideration ?

[ANCDU]

A Qantas pilot with extensive knowledge of B777 ! Thats an aircraft we only ever dreamed of getting near fit the last 15 years, let alone any knowledge of.

On a more serious note, I think passenger safety is foremost in every pilots mind. There has been so much money thrown at this investigation and so many theories regarding the aircraft’s fate that I believe even when it is found the truth may be a long time coming.

The B777 is one of the safest aircraft ever built, if it had a design fault, even with its oxygen system, wouldn’t the fact that it has such a long history have identified this fault, and been raised by investigators?

Hey but what what would I know, apparently they are old technology anyway!

[The Banjo]

Dick,

in the time it took for you to type those words more than 8 aussies have died in car accidents/ drug overdoses/cancer/heart disease/ domestic violence/murder/suicide etc etc etc.

While very unfortunate and close to heart for us in the industry one has to step back and keep things in perspective. A death in an aircraft is no more glorious or important than the other multitude of ways one can depart planet earth.

[Dick Smith]

Banjo. Sounds for a second that you actually understand “affordable safety”

[Beer Baron]

So if we raise $270 million and go searching for the aircraft again and it’s not found, what then? Do we keep looking?

Should we spend a billion dollars on the search?

Is it your position that if safety is the number one consideration we should spend unlimited sums of money searching for an aircraft which could possibly have no safety benefit?

[MickG0105]

It is clear that not only were eight Australians killed, ...

Not clear at all, actually. There were six Australians on MH370, not eight.


I ask everyone to support me in a campaign to get the search going again (this time probably in the correct area would be a good idea),


The correct area?! Aye, there's the rub. If you have any idea as to where exactly the 'correct area' might be that would be extraordinarily helpful.

[Sunfish]

Dick is pointing out the hypocrisy of CASA claiming safety is everything when ignoring the cost imposts on the GA industry and then wailing about costs when it comes to MH370. Cost is either important or it isn’t but CASA wants it both ways.

[Dick Smith]

Beer Baron. My position is that I want the CASA act to tell the truth. Despite the fact that it states that safety must be the most important consideration there are many times that CASA clearly considers that cost is clearly more important than the safety improvement that can be made.

The Deputy Prime Minister is going down a risky path supporting “ the lie”

[machtuk]

I'm of the belief that a person or persons unknown knows something of vital importance to this mystery, now whether that person or persons are still alive is the $50Million dollar question cause 5 years is a looooong time to hold a secret of this magnitude & still be living!
It still amazes me that in 1969 we put 2 men on the Moon & safely brought them back with technology that a smart Phone could probably handle these days yet advance time almost 50 years with today's technology we can't locate one of the largest flying objects man has ever made?

Something doesn't add up here !!!!!

[CaptainMidnight]

Dick is pointing out the hypocrisy of CASA claiming safety is everything when ignoring the cost imposts on the GA industry and then wailing about costs when it comes to MH370. Cost is either important or it isn’t but CASA wants it both ways.
Where has CASA been "wailing" about the cost of the MH370 search?

As far as I am aware, CASA has no involvement with the search, its the ATSB.

[cattletruck]

Ultimate safety can be achieved by CASA if they invest more effort in building a time machine.

[cattletruck]

Currently they have built a time wasting machine....

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Why should the travelling public contribute towards the search for a foreign owned and operated aircraft lost in international waters? If the Malaysians can't be bothered looking for it....?

[aroa]

Having kept a file of clips from newspapers, magzines etc.for my own interest since MH 370 took a plunge, putting Amelia in No2 spot in the Great Aviation Mystery Stakes..

I would like the 'oxy bottle theorist' to tell where/ what part of the flight regime that the bottle failed in?? And with that failure what would be the initial result that would lead to bringing the a/c down.?

While there are some other end sites postulated, I think the political whackery about all that ocean being Oz responsiblity, so ATSB blew enough money/ $100mil for nought., when it was Malaysia's aircraft, mostly Chinese pax.
Finding it and closure for all would be terrific Plus the orange boxes and the data therefrom detailing the flight path 'truth'
Those that did the 'no find no fee' search be prepared to go again perhaps if cost covering was available...a la Dicks idea to raise the dosh
Seems like only the bereaved and a few others want a result, Governments have closed the doors/lost interest.

[Dick Smith]

Traffic. The flying public should contribute for self interest.

There is is a small chance that the Qantas pilot is correct and there is a problem with the aircraft.

Personally I would pay $10 extra a ticket to find the real answer and get some closure on this.

[tio540]

Sydney Olympics spend = A$ 6.0 Billion

NBN = A$ 60 Billion

Submarines = A$ 40 Billion

Should I keep going?

[Icarus2001]

Just look at the known flight track of the aircraft after they went NINC. What failure would cause an aircraft to fly accurately along FIR boundaries and lose transponder functions?

Get real.

[jimjim1]

I would like the 'oxy bottle theorist' to tell where/ what part of the flight regime that the bottle failed in?? And with that failure what would be the initial result that would lead to bringing the a/c down.?


I have no theory about MH370 other than it is lost. However here is a case where an oxygen bottle exploded in flight. Flight 30 landed safely with no injuries but the damage was not insignificant.

"The hole in the fuselage – roughly in an inverted T-shape – was up to 2.01 m wide and approximately 1.52 m high, ...
the cylinder valve was found inside the cabin, having punched a hole "at least twenty centimetres in diameter" through the cabin floor"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantas_Flight_30

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4d/Qf30_damage.jpeg/220px-Qf30_damage.jpeg

[MickG0105]

I would like the 'oxy bottle theorist' to tell where/ what part of the flight regime that the bottle failed in??


I'm not 'the 'oxy bottle theorist'' but if you look at the where the two crew oxygen system bottles on the B777 are located the theory is not without some merit. The hypothesised failure of an oxy bottle on MH370 would have been just after TOC about 40 minutes into the flight (on QF30 it was 55 minutes into the flight).

And with that failure what would be the initial result that would lead to bringing the a/c down.?

Unlike the B747 the oxygen bottles on the B777 aren't arrayed vertically in a cargo compartment, they are stacked horizontally in the main equipment centre. Directly ahead of the bottles in the MEC is the E3 rack on which you will find, inter alia, the left AIMS cabinet and the ADIRU. Directly behind the bottles is the E1 rack on which you will find, inter alia, the left VHF XCVR, the left transponder, the left Generator Control Unit, the left Primary Flight Computer and the Audio Management Unit.

If a bottle fails in a B777 it won't simply punch a hole in the aircraft, it will almost certainly take out a stack of fairly important systems that includes items like comms and transponder.

The other big difference is that those bottles are connected to the flight crew, not the passenger, emergency oxygen system. If one fails you would expect to loose the whole system. We know that it took QF30 38 seconds to start their emergency descent after their bottle failed (35 seconds after the cabin pressure warning commenced). If there was a bottle failure on MH370 and the damage punctured the hull, when the crew donned their masks they would not have been getting oxygen. Under those circumstances a hypoxic crew would not inconceivable.

I'm not going to play hypotheticals on every aspect of the flight but suffice to say that the oxygen bottle theory is, as I've noted, not without some merit.

[Dee Vee]

I have called for a small levy to be put on air tickets. Ten cents would raise $270 million from the 2.7 billion passengers, so the search could continue and the aircraft to be found.

I'd happily pay $1 on every flight I take so the search can continue. It should never have been stopped, get the Ocean Infinity out there and don't stop til its found.

[tdracer]

Only yesterday, a Qantas pilot said to me that he does not believe in the murder/suicide theory and believes there is an airworthiness problem with the aircraft – it is tied up with an oxygen cylinder that could blow up.

Would this pilot be one of your 'experts' that has convinced you that ETOPS is unsafe and if cost were no object we'd all by flying around in 4 engine aircraft that statistically crash more often than twins?
But I'll play the game - suppose you do manage to tax every passenger worldwide to finance your search for MH 370. What would you do with that $270 million? All the places where they thought it might have ended up have already been searched, so where would you search? Or would you keep taxing passengers indefinitely and spend billions to search all the worlds oceans (at least the ones within range of it's last known location)?
Besides, haven't you been paying attention? MH 370 was shot down by US Military off the coast of Diego Garcia, and all the major bits were collected and destroyed to hide the crime :ugh::ugh:

[Dee Vee]

in the time it took for you to type those words more than 8 aussies have died in car accidents/ drug overdoses/cancer/heart disease/ domestic violence/murder/suicide etc etc etc.

How it that relevant? If the government can whack a $10 levy on everyone to fund the Ansett failure, it can certainly do something similar to meet its own search obligations.

[Scooter Rassmussin]

I’m sure the Malaysian government knows more about MH370 than they are letting on .
It quite convenient to be in Australian waters to milk a wealthier country .
Nobody really knows where it is and the evidence so far really does point to some sort of human interference, in that case there is nothing to learn .
The B777 is an extremely robust aircraft and I would say having flown it unlikely to have had such catastrophic and multiple failures all at once !

[neville_nobody]

Just look at the known flight track of the aircraft after they went NINC. What failure would cause an aircraft to fly accurately along FIR boundaries and lose transponder functions?

Get real.

Exactly. Add to that fact that no ELT's went off.

Dick's point about CASA is spot on but there should be no levy for MH370. It has nothing to do with Australia. The 777 is a tank just look at the two landing crashes it has survived and evrybody walked away literally.

You can't tell me the NSA/CIA don't have some sort of idea what happened. Those guys monitor everything these days so I am sure they could figure it out if they really wanted to.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Dick's point about CASA is spot on
No it's not. CASA don't conduct accident investigations. The ATSB do. It's not up to CASA to find the thing and find out why it crashed. Their job would be to assess any recommendations or findings arising from that investigation, were it to occur. I note that no other safety regulator in the world has grounded or otherwise restricted the operation of B777's pending the results.

[neville_nobody]

No it's not. CASA don't conduct accident investigations. The ATSB do. It's not up to CASA to find the thing and find out why it crashed. Their job would be to assess any recommendations or findings arising from that investigation, were it to occur. I note that no other safety regulator in the world has grounded or otherwise restricted the operation of B777's pending the results.

I think his point was safety at any cost vs some sort of measured consideration of risk/reward and MH 370 was an example of that playing out in real life.

CASA and ATSB are almost one in the same these days anyhow, https://www.casa.gov.au/files/casaatsbmou201503pdf

[QuarterInchSocket]

Something doesn't add up here !!!!!
Machtuk - Agree 100%! what’s even more amazing is that nothing has been done about it yet. I’m sure a brains trust could engineer a solution

[Car RAMROD]

The flying public should contribute for self interest.


You assume the entire flying public is actually interested.

What if they aren’t?


Further, please tell us where the next search will find MH370.

Otherwise, yawn.

[fdr]

Traffic. The flying public should contribute for self interest.

There is is a small chance that the Qantas pilot is correct and there is a problem with the aircraft.

Personally I would pay $10 extra a ticket to find the real answer and get some closure on this.

I only have 8700 hours PIC on the B777, and have 10 years as an accident investigator on wide/narrow body accidents and incidents. I can say that I cannot join dots on any system failure that would match the data assuming the Inmarsat pings are valid which they still appear to be. The only scenario that places the plane anywhere near that flight path is unlawful interference by some party. The aircraft is not perfect, but it is darn close to that, one of the best designed aircraft out there, and one that makes dealing with system malfunctions. If you are assuming the merits of MickG0105's hypothesis then the dogleg that was reportedly flown needs to be explained.

[harrryw]

I am not sure that a QANTAS pilot should be particularly concerned with that aircraft as the 777 is not part of the fleet. The answer may help aviation safety if it is found but I am certain that the money would provide more safety if used to improve Australian aviation infrastructure.

[George Glass]

fdr and tdracer, just a headsup. You are relying on experience,training,deep knowledge and common sense. However, this is the internet and you are dealing with the tinfoil hat brigade. Argument is futile.

[Nulli Secundus]

Dick Smith, the death of so many passengers and crew is a most sad and tragic event. It has changed peoples lives forever. It will have shattered families and unfortunately many may never recover from their grief.

Prior to yesterday, 27 Feb, you had in fact called for a small levy to be put on air tickets. Its so far proving difficult to find any record of this online. How did you make this call for a small levy and to whom? Was it broadcast on radio or television and when did this call to action take place?

Given you seek everyone's support for a campaign to restart the MH370 search, how exactly will your campaign run, will your campaign monitor and collect the 10c levy worldwide and how will you make the process transparent and accountable. How many staff will be needed to operate the campaign you propose and do you have a launch date? Will you have premises available for this campaign and who do you propose to target in this campaign? What media platforms have you planned to use for this campaign?

Will we see you in the main stream media for this campaign to restart the search for MH370 and if so when?

Given you propose a 10 cent levy be added to every ticket, just explain your position that airlines could lose 10 cents on every airline ticket from their profit?

[rodney rude]

So are Dick and Captain QF suggesting an oxy bottle let go and the FMC got hypoxic and navigated the aircraft across Asia and then Southwest into the Indian?????????? How the hell does a 777 oxy issue explain why the aircraft did not continue Northbound? It went where thew FMC told it too and the FMC was told by SOMEONE where to go.

[Atlas Shrugged]

Agree with the sentiments re CASA, the rest is utter drivel.

It is no longer search for survivors - they are dead.

It is not a recovery operation - no one knows where it is.

NOBODY knows what happened, other than it took off and came down..... SOMEWHERE.

IF it is ever found it will be a salvage operation, responsibility for which will be with the Malaysian owner and/or operator, the Malaysian Government or whoever wants it - nothing whatsoever to do with Australia.

BTW, did anyone ever find that little bug smasher thing that went down in the Barrington Tops? Perhaps a levy for that may be more appropriate...... in AUSTRALIA!

[*Lancer*]

Traffic. The flying public should contribute for self interest.

There is is a small chance that the Qantas pilot is correct and there is a problem with the aircraft.

Personally I would pay $10 extra a ticket to find the real answer and get some closure on this.

There is a significantly larger chance there was nothing wrong with the aircraft and that $10 would be better spent on mental health.

[Tankengine]

Money would be better spent on putting satellite trackers in all RPT aircraft.
Most gliders and sailboats have trackers FFS!

[ampclamp]

Explaining the entire flight takes some doing trying to construct scenario of a failure or failures.

I have no doubt about it being human interference, highly likely the captain. It was not a malfunction that took on extra fuel ,spoke the final words just before going dark, conveniently turned at the FIR boundary, navigated the Thai- Malay border, made the turn at the skipper's home town or had routes to the Antarctic on their flight sim.

He was politically active , a distant relative of the formerly gaoled opposition leader. He was chasing fluff on line with young models half his age and reportedly had marriage troubles ( no wonder)

Framed perfectly, or, like he actually did it.

Malaysia knew it flew back over the peninsula and let good willed countries search in vain in the South China Sea for a week or more before being outed by the satellite ping data. The then PM himself admitted it was done by human hands but to this day will not admit one of their own very likely did it.

I want it found too ,but I'm quite sure there is no safety issue with the aircraft to warrant a levy.

Ocean Infinity have indicated they are willing to return to searching but want better data.

[CaptainEmad]

Crew O2 Bottle goes bang, takes out xpndr, comms and leaves a large hole in the fuselage.
Crew dons masks, starts the process of running through checklists, calling ATC etc.
PF could have easily selected a southerly HDG mode during these initial moments. Nearest runway?

I have experienced hypoxia in a pressure chamber and can understand how it could have caused unexpected and illogical handling as the mental processing power of the crew degraded toward unconsciousness and death.

I am not an investigator, but it certainly seems a reasonable possibility among others.

[Bend alot]

Search away but use Australian resources to do it, nothing wrong designing new stuff if required to do the job.

The spin off in developing new technology, mapping, jobs and possibly core sample data of the deep could be just what we need.

Sadly it would build another government empire!

[mrdeux]

QF30 is a bit of thread drift, but it's worth noting that its outcome was quite dependent upon just which bottle failed. Whilst they are all identical, they are in a couple of locations, and orientations. If the bottle that failed had been one of the two crew bottles, not only would it have affected the cockpit supply, but their orientation is such that the 'projectile' could well have hit the rack of seven in which the failure happened. More than one bottle failing would have been far too interesting.

[ampclamp]

Crew O2 Bottle goes bang, takes out xpndr, comms and leaves a large hole in the fuselage

That's a very selected grouping of independent systems. 2 transponders, 2 HF radios, 3 VHF radios. Different locations, power supplies etc.

Incredibly the accident left enough nav gear serviceable as it seems to have navigated by way points that would not be in the initial flight plan so someone very likely put that into the FMS afterwards. If someone did that why not descend or land? Operate the completely independent ELT?

[tdracer]

Incredibly the accident left enough nav gear serviceable as it seems to have navigated by way points that would not be in the initial flight plan so someone very likely put that into the FMS afterwards. If someone did that why not descend or land? Operate the completely independent ELT?
One of the glaring problems with most of the mechanical failure theories resulting in a decompression is that - if they had enough control to turn around and head back towards Malaysia, why in the world didn't they initiate a descent? That's the number one thing you're taught to do in the event of a decompression after putting on your oxygen masks.
Of course, accounting for the lack of any attempt to descend makes for a lousy conspiracy theory...

[flightleader]

I have just watched the 60minutes on TV. Utter garbage! The whole episode was concentrated in insinuating it was a suicidal mass murder. Please show me his motive! Reporters do not care about the story or the victims next of kin. Politically active or disgrunted doesn’t mean one needs to commit mass murder. The Australian MPs were dropping like flies due to duo citizenship, has anyone of them commited mass murder?

There is no evidence that those waypoints created on the captain’s home computer were meant to linked up to form a route. So why suggest he plotted a route to the South Indian Ocean? Infact, most waypoints were coincide with atypical route to Europe from Kuala Lumpur. Pilots creates waypoints routingly for many-many reasons, e.g. EDTO, High terrain avoidance, ERA ETP...........There were only 2 waypoints almost on the same spot in the far south. There is no evidence to suggest it is the destination!

If the crew O2 bottle blew, what make you think it didn’t kill the captain at that very instant and left the inexperience copilot to deal with the emergency, possibly with very limited resources like lack of O2, system displays that has gone dead or even a big hole in the cockpit? Lets not forget those bottles are mounted on the port side of the nose wheel well wall and not too far aft of the captain’s right butt cheek.

The matter of fact is, no matter how credible a piece of information being presented on this MH370 case, there will be someon across the other side of the world who claimed as an aviation expert coming forward and shoot this information to pieces, discrediting it with all the unimaginable doubts.

Is it fair to the captain and his family that he is being labelled as mass murderer while he could be the very one tried his very best to his last breath to save everyone onboard?

[flightleader]

What is really more sad than this tragedy itself is that the aviation industry hasn’t learn much from it!

[sheppey]

The whole episode was concentrated in insinuating it was a suicidal mass murder.
You mean like the Boeing 737 Silk Air Flight MI-185 "accident".

[Bend alot]

If the crew O2 bottle blew, what make you think it didn’t kill the captain at that very instant and left the inexperience copilot to deal with the emergency, possibly with very limited resources like lack of O2, system displays that has gone dead or even a big hole in the cockpit? Lets not forget those bottles are mounted on the port side of the nose wheel well wall and not too far aft of the captain’s right butt cheek.



The inexperienced copilot sitting in the RH seat would do the same as all of us when the explosion happened - turn away from danger.

[Jetthrust]

Beer Baron. My position is that I want the CASA act to tell the truth. Despite the fact that it states that safety must be the most important consideration there are many times that CASA clearly considers that cost is clearly more important than the safety improvement that can be made.

The Deputy Prime Minister is going down a risky path supporting “ the lie”


Safety is important, and should be the most important aspect, but it’s not the only factor. ALARP - as low as reasonably practical - is a concept that makes a lot of sense, IMHO.

Lets take MH370 as an example. Suppose the location was found. Isn’t there a chance the location could be ambiguous about whether a crew member was flying at the point of impact or not? For example, let’s say the location did not show a long glide had occurred from the last “ping”. That doesn’t mean a pilot wasn’t conscious. It just means, there was no human input. So, it would be ambiguous. Or, maybe the location is half way between the maximum gliding distance, and a “death spiral” impact point. What then? Location would mean nothing.

So, it’s possible, that as well as locating the point of impact, you also have to salvage the wreckage. Finding the CVR for the Lion Air Boeing 737 Max was a difficult activity, and they new exactly where that impacted, and it wasn’t in deep water.

But, even if you pay enough to locate the impact site, and then pay to find and recover the FDR, that still may not show anything. Won’t it just show the transponder lost power? It still will not indicate if it was turned off, or an open circuit occurred (say due to an exploding O2 bottle). So, you still will not know...?

So, we get back to the ALARP principal. Which, while usually applied for risk management prior to an event, can also be applied after the fact. Is it worth spending $X for a possible increase in safety of Y?. Since $’s are finite, they should be spent on the lowest hanging fruit. And, given the Swiss cheers model, do we really need to know exactly the cause? If there are a few possible causes, wouldn’t it be prudent to try and reduce or eliminate them all? I assume potential failures are not only eliminated retrospectively.

As a travelling member of the public, I’d much much rather pay $1 per ticket to help monitor pilot mental health, than $1 per ticket to fund looking for MH370.

Cheers....

[ampclamp]

But, even if you pay enough to locate the impact site, and then pay to find and recover the FDR, that still may not show anything. Won’t it just show the transponder lost power? It still will not indicate if it was turned off, or an open circuit occurred (say due to an exploding O2 bottle). So, you still will not know...?

It will likely show loss of cabin pressure (if any and when), auto deployment of masks, it will likely show from which side control inputs were made along with dozens of other monitored sensors and inputs.Maybe even the cockpit door locking, if monitored.

The CVR area mic could well have recorded someones last moments, all the alarms chimes and assorted aural warnings as events unfolded over the last 2 hours.
My concern is that if it lies 20,000 ft or or more under water the integrity of the memory capsule could well be compromised especially after all this time. Supposedly guaranteed to -20,000 ft but 5 plus years under 8000psi in salt water is a severe test.

The wreckage may offer clues even if the recorders are useless. Cockpit door manual lock bolts in place, certain CB's found tripped, oxy bottle(s) condition ie are all the portables cylinder taps turned on etc. Clearly, it hit the water hard, so any of those possible clues maybe completely obscured by the impact.
Worth looking? I think so. Ocean Infinity have said they would like to return. They have great tech and it is improving all the time.

Certainly mental health is very likely an issue here. There have been several incidents related to mental health over the years. I dont know what is currently in place or what can be done though.

[Bend alot]

Lets take MH370 as an example.

Suppose the location was found. Isn’t there a chance the location could be ambiguous about whether a crew member was flying at the point of impact or not? For example, let’s say the location did not show a long glide had occurred from the last “ping”. That doesn’t mean a pilot wasn’t conscious. It just means, there was no human input. So, it would be ambiguous. Or, maybe the location is half way between the maximum gliding distance, and a “death spiral” impact point. What then? Location would mean nothing.

* Location can tell lots of things. Comparing it to last known flight data and know data such as fuel load. This alone could prove if human inputs were made after a point that all oxygen on the aircraft would have been depleted.

So, it’s possible, that as well as locating the point of impact, you also have to salvage the wreckage. Finding the CVR for the Lion Air Boeing 737 Max was a difficult activity, and they new exactly where that impacted, and it wasn’t in deep water.

* While it would be good to salvage the wreckage it might not need to be, to determine what happened or what did not happen. Certain parts would want to be salvaged other pieces imagery might be enough. The Lion Air 737 did a dive into mud, the MH370 CVR would have lost some velocity before hitting the ocean floor.

But, even if you pay enough to locate the impact site, and then pay to find and recover the FDR, that still may not show anything. Won’t it just show the transponder lost power? It still will not indicate if it was turned off, or an open circuit occurred (say due to an exploding O2 bottle). So, you still will not know...?

* FDR may not show anything or it might show lots - an exploding O2 bottle would send a number of inputs to the FDR (if able to get the data extracted). It could also have been turned off before the transponder. Now if you have the wreckage you could inspect the O2 bottle and include or exclude the exploding bottle theory. The CVR and FDR may or may not still contain data, but they are not required to know some simple answers.

So, we get back to the ALARP principal. Which, while usually applied for risk management prior to an event, can also be applied after the fact. Is it worth spending $X for a possible increase in safety of Y?. Since $’s are finite, they should be spent on the lowest hanging fruit. And, given the Swiss cheers model, do we really need to know exactly the cause? If there are a few possible causes, wouldn’t it be prudent to try and reduce or eliminate them all? I assume potential failures are not only eliminated retrospectively.

As a travelling member of the public, I’d much much rather pay $1 per ticket to help monitor pilot mental health, than $1 per ticket to fund looking for MH370

* The pilots do not want Big Brother in the cockpit monitoring them. Certain groups think removing the pilots from the cockpit is the best way forward, and save the $1.

[oggers]

Crew O2 Bottle goes bang, takes out xpndr, comms and leaves a large hole in the fuselage.
Crew dons masks, starts the process of running through checklists, calling ATC etc.
PF could have easily selected a southerly HDG mode during these initial moments. Nearest runway?

I have experienced hypoxia in a pressure chamber and can understand how it could have caused unexpected and illogical handling as the mental processing power of the crew degraded toward unconsciousness and death.

I am not an investigator, but it certainly seems a reasonable possibility among others.

Well it must have seemed plausible to the Captain of MH370 who had prepared himself for dealing with just such a hypoxia induced change of route by rehearsing it on his home simulator. Twice. :rolleyes:

[Ex FSO GRIFFO]

FIVE YEARS ON...………TODAY!

I wonder just what will happen next re this 'mystery'....??

Another search? More 'conspiracy' theories? The endless supply of armchair experts continues...…..??

[SCPL_1988]

fdr and tdracer, Thanks for the common sense. The ping information and cell phone tower ping plus the radar , the height and track
information makes it clear that an O2 bottle failure is an improbable and does not add up.

While Dick has a point that its only 10 cents a fare its fails to deal with root cause of CASA's madness and corrupt structure.
The problem is a culture of stupidity and economic madness that makes
CASA one of the most hated Aviation Authorities in the world.

First they are political animals, hell bent on promoting and complicating their ever expanding extortion. The word Safety is a political statement not a reality.
They refer to themselves as "officers" when they are public servants.

One only has to read their documents to see how they have copied overseas documents, removed all the nouns, added many times the original number of words, destroyed the clear message of the original document and created a an unnecessarily complex set of rules that is designed to make aviation increasingly more expensive.

The cost of training in Australia is now about double the cost in the USA or Canada and that price difference is largely the result of CASA madness.

At the end of the day, its CASA who over burden the industry with
their propaganda that results in what must be one of the poorest value
for money from an Australian government department.

Scrapping CASA and copying the FAA would cut the cost of aviation dramatically.

[fdr]

Lets take MH370 as an example.

Suppose the location was found. Isn’t there a chance the location could be ambiguous about whether a crew member was flying at the point of impact or not? For example, let’s say the location did not show a long glide had occurred from the last “ping”. That doesn’t mean a pilot wasn’t conscious. It just means, there was no human input. So, it would be ambiguous. Or, maybe the location is half way between the maximum gliding distance, and a “death spiral” impact point. What then? Location would mean nothing.

* Location can tell lots of things. Comparing it to last known flight data and know data such as fuel load. This alone could prove if human inputs were made after a point that all oxygen on the aircraft would have been depleted.

So, it’s possible, that as well as locating the point of impact, you also have to salvage the wreckage. Finding the CVR for the Lion Air Boeing 737 Max was a difficult activity, and they new exactly where that impacted, and it wasn’t in deep water.

* While it would be good to salvage the wreckage it might not need to be, to determine what happened or what did not happen. Certain parts would want to be salvaged other pieces imagery might be enough. The Lion Air 737 did a dive into mud, the MH370 CVR would have lost some velocity before hitting the ocean floor.

But, even if you pay enough to locate the impact site, and then pay to find and recover the FDR, that still may not show anything. Won’t it just show the transponder lost power? It still will not indicate if it was turned off, or an open circuit occurred (say due to an exploding O2 bottle). So, you still will not know...?

* FDR may not show anything or it might show lots - an exploding O2 bottle would send a number of inputs to the FDR (if able to get the data extracted). It could also have been turned off before the transponder. Now if you have the wreckage you could inspect the O2 bottle and include or exclude the exploding bottle theory. The CVR and FDR may or may not still contain data, but they are not required to know some simple answers.

So, we get back to the ALARP principal. Which, while usually applied for risk management prior to an event, can also be applied after the fact. Is it worth spending $X for a possible increase in safety of Y?. Since $’s are finite, they should be spent on the lowest hanging fruit. And, given the Swiss cheers model, do we really need to know exactly the cause? If there are a few possible causes, wouldn’t it be prudent to try and reduce or eliminate them all? I assume potential failures are not only eliminated retrospectively.

As a travelling member of the public, I’d much much rather pay $1 per ticket to help monitor pilot mental health, than $1 per ticket to fund looking for MH370

* The pilots do not want Big Brother in the cockpit monitoring them. Certain groups think removing the pilots from the cockpit is the best way forward, and save the $1.


The available information already tells whether the aircraft was open loop of closed loop for the flight path. Finding the aircraft crash site will not alter those facts. The wreckage that washed up also tells the same story, of the energy state of the aircraft at impact, whether it was open or closed loop control. The possible parties that could provide closed loop control are quite limited, and were apparently refined by the police investigation. A successful search will give some closure to the relatives, primarily from a final report, but will not alter what had to have occurred to put the aircraft onto the flightpath that it conducted. MH370 is the paradoxical risk that came about from the heightened security measures following 9/11. It is not the first, and unfortunately it is unlikely to be the last. When first introduced, for the airline that I was with at that time, the risks of such events was considered, and precautions were incorporated into the procedures. Unfortunately, human nature being what it is, those procedures were less than perfectly implemented.

[hamble701]

Don’t know if these details are elsewhere on the thread but here goes :

ICAO Annex 13 sets out a hierarchy for the State responsible for investigations

1. State of Occurrance (unknown in this case)
2. State of Registration - Malaysia.

There are others listed but in this case we need not go any further. Malaysia is therefor the responsible State, Australia’s role is therefor to provide assistance when requested, I can only assume that Australia led the search after a formal request.

ATSB is the investigation agency, AMSA Is the search and rescue agency. As far as I know ATSB would have had little search expertise (especially search management) when the search began.

Australia’s level of involvement is and has been I suspect a political decision.

Australia’s further involvement ? Political decision again ? What are ATSB’s priorities given their finite resources, their Act is specific (as is Annex 13), re improving aviation safety. Where are our $s best spent ?

[Know I. Deer]

The correct area?! Aye, there's the rub. If you have any idea as to where exactly the 'correct area' might be that would be extraordinarily helpful.

You've nailed it. The technology deployed to search would have located it if the remains were physically in any of the search boxes, both in the original search and the follow-up.

I used to work for the original search contractor, however in a different division. We saw the internal presentations/documents/raw data highlighting system performance and results obtained. As the contractor, we were searching within the location instructed by the client, unfortunately with no success. The data obtained is superb, there's just no indication of aircraft remains within the search box.

[QuarterInchSocket]

Money would be better spent on putting satellite trackers in all RPT aircraft.
Most gliders and sailboats have trackers FFS!

this!

it is the single most available lesson to be learnt from mh370 disappearance and yet still no changes have been made.