Qantas to get A321 NEO

[Tony the Tiler]

Qantas are rumoured to be on the verge of announcing plans to introduce A321NEOs to shorthaul operations utilising some of Bruce Buchannan’s A320 bonanza buying spree options. Might even be as soon as the first half results.

[Transition Layer]

Flown by...?

I’d also heard the short haul replacement type announcement was imminent. Tomorrow might be the day!

[SOPS]

They have to go somewhere!!!

[blow.n.gasket]

They have to go somewhere!!!

Do you mean somewhere that has a chance of making money ?

[SMT Member]

Flown by...?

(Lobs hand grenade)

Well, all the sulky Ozmates returning from Knoteetingham with fresh Airboos ratings, obvs!

(and runs)

[knobbycobby]

That would be awesome!
Fair Work would have everyone on the SH award.

[SixDemonBag]

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/489x253/ha_ha_gif_30914d2defdc3ba6dd6f0b6b0dbb6d0cfa9b56e5.gif

[goodonyamate]

No new aircraft
QF Domestic making record profits again, great news as there is no reason for the SH pilots to accept a sub standard deal
JQ Domestic also doing well
QF International profitable

[Slezy9]

Rumour is that they’re also in talks with NZ to integrate their A321 flying also with the same group of pilots under the new QF/NZ joint venture.

Do you mean Jetstar NZ or Air NZ?

[Flava Saver]

$2 Billion on fuel. (Up 27%).

I wonder if they had of just given the bonus without the strings attached what this would of been. I’m guessing the Joyce Juice would of been a lot less!

[Chris2303]

Rumour is that they’re also in talks with NZ to integrate their A321 flying also with the same group of pilots under the new QF/NZ joint venture.

I can't see the ACCC or the NZ Commerce Commission agreeing to a JV between two major competitors

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

^^I’m pretty sure InZed was joking...

[Berealgetreal]

NEO 321? Incredible machine, Boeing have no answer nor do Virgin (at this stage).

Perfect timing with the SH eba. The old carrot, only issue is that SH 737 guys wouldn’t really want to fly a NEO.

[Street garbage]

Oh, it's EBA time, must have something to scare the worker's with...

[Australopithecus]

NEO 321? Incredible machine, Boeing have no answer nor do Virgin (at this stage).

Perfect timing with the SH eba. The old carrot, only issue is that SH 737 guys wouldn’t really want to fly a NEO.

Since when do we get a vote on fleet decisions? But you’re right about the timing: classic QF IR ploy.

[Berealgetreal]

Just saying it looks impressive, was hoping Max10 could match the range. In Europe it’s opening up new routes.

The other point was that it might not be the carrot people might think.

[Transition Layer]

(Lobs hand grenade)

Well, all the sulky Ozmates returning from Knoteetingham with fresh Airboos ratings, obvs!

(and runs)

Haha yes, a grenade, but with tongue firmly planted in cheek.

However, if they were to add “Link” on the fuselage and a few rows of lie-flat sleeper Business seats, then it’d be an entirely different story unfortunately :(

[crosscutter]

And on which new routes would the ‘Link’ comfy seats be put on....because it wouldn’t be on an existing Mainline route unless Mainline capacity miraculously increased further.

[-438]

There are currently rumours Qantas will be announcing an order of 737 MAX, A321neo, A330neo, A350, 788's returning from Jetstar and 777X. There was even a recent rumour of additional A380's (that rumour is probably dead now!)
Believe what you like, however AJ hasn't ordered any aircraft for Qantas since becoming CEO.
New aircraft orders are not good for his share price!!

[crosscutter]

Correct! AJ also has a habit of over promising but under delivering. Potential aircraft orders...meh...real improvements in lifestyle and conditions..ding ding ding ding.

Nov 2020 may just reinforce what AJ Qantas tenure will be remembered for.

[downdata]

Why buy aircrafts when you can buy back shares? Those LTI options are not going to vest thenselves!

[Going Boeing]

QF Domestic making record profits again, great news as there is no reason for the SH pilots to accept a sub standard deal
JQ Domestic also doing well
QF International profitable, hit by fuel costs but the increase in the first half will be fully recovered in the second half, so no reason to take flight plan fuel everywhere
smoke and haze around JQ international, nothing disclosed as usual.

QF International profitable, hit by fuel costs & STILL HAVING TO PAY SOME OF JQ INTERNATIONAL’s BILLS.

[morno]

QF International profitable, hit by fuel costs & STILL HAVING TO PAY SOME OF JQ INTERNATIONAL’s BILLS.

And your proof is where sir?

[RickNRoll]

There are currently rumours Qantas will be announcing an order of 737 MAX, A321neo, A330neo, A350, 788's returning from Jetstar and 777X. There was even a recent rumour of additional A380's (that rumour is probably dead now!)
Believe what you like, however AJ hasn't ordered any aircraft for Qantas since becoming CEO.
New aircraft orders are not good for his share price!!

Investing in the future isn't good for the share price. And this is an airline business, which runs on technology that is constantly evolving. Shareholders must be stupid.

[help me jebus]

Post edited

[Australopithecus]

Spoken as a Boeing guy, I'd prefer a 320/321/350 mix for everything if fleet commonality and strealined training paths were actually a thing. I think the 321 NEO and 350 both work very well in their respective roles, as probably will the 777-X. The 737Max is a sad answer to the 321...it’s an aeroplane that has roots that go halfway back to the Wright Bros. Lots of lipstick, but still a pig.

Whatever they decide it will be at odds with the hopes of at least half of us, it will be too little, and it will be too late.

[Transition Layer]

Here’s my guesses...

Sunrise/380 replacement - mixture of A350-900 and -1000 (16 total)
A330 North Asian (thinner routes) international flying replaced by B787 including 787-10s - (total fleet numbers around 40)
A330 domestic transcon and triangle, plus thinner short haul international replaced by 797 - (fleet of around 30)
Traditional domestic flying and off peak triangle/transcon replaced by 737 MAX 8 (60 aircraft)

So basically the versatile 797 picks up a portion of 737 and 330 flying, and the 787 does the long thin routes it does now in addition to most of the Asian A330 stuff apart from SIN. 737 MAXs replace the oldest of the 737 fleet and the long lead time on the 797 ties in well with the retirement of the newest aircraft in the 737 fleet.

You’d end up with a Mainline fleet of approximately 140 aircraft versus 129 in 2020 when the 744s go and next tranche of 787s have arrived.

An eye watering amount of capex whichever way you look at it :ooh:

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

An eye watering amount of capex whichever way you look at it :ooh:

But would be a lot more manageable if the CEO actually invested in the company rather than his share portfolio and started ordering jets now, not hospital passing an aging fleet to the next CEO who’d be faced with the need for urgent fleet renewal.

[MACH082]

I think you’ve got that very wrong.

Qantas will put A321 neos on the triangle/trans cont and phase out the 330s.

The 737 fleet will be replaced by 320/321 neos

There will be token 787 services connecting to Europe on the west coast side and the americas on the east coast side.

Mainline will get the 787s from JQ which will become an all
A320/321 operator.

The 787-8 will probably do transcont and thin long distance routes.

They will look at the 797.

The A350 will be the project sunrise winner. Despite the 777 being a great aeroplane, it’s an older design and with AJs emphasis on new technology, it’s a new generation of jet.

This will replace 380s and they will get 20-30 of them.

[MACH082]

From what I understand the tanks are the same size. The engines are de-rated and the config is more dense. Which is why they don’t have the range.

The origanal plan at JQ was to take the -8s setup the network, take some -9s and give the -8s back to QF as transcontinental machines. Hence why they were setup without crew rest etc.

[maggot]

Here’s my guesses...

Sunrise/380 replacement - mixture of A350-900 and -1000 (16 total)
A330 North Asian (thinner routes) international flying replaced by B787 including 787-10s - (total fleet numbers around 40)
A330 domestic transcon and triangle, plus thinner short haul international replaced by 797 - (fleet of around 30)
Traditional domestic flying and off peak triangle/transcon replaced by 737 MAX 8 (60 aircraft)

So basically the versatile 797 picks up a portion of 737 and 330 flying, and the 787 does the long thin routes it does now in addition to most of the Asian A330 stuff apart from SIN. 737 MAXs replace the oldest of the 737 fleet and the long lead time on the 797 ties in well with the retirement of the newest aircraft in the 737 fleet.

You’d end up with a Mainline fleet of approximately 140 aircraft versus 129 in 2020 when the 744s go and next tranche of 787s have arrived.

An eye watering amount of capex whichever way you look at it :ooh:

Yeah I don't see an a330 neo neo order for us despite its suitability but I also doubt 787-10s. Just need a 'regional config' for a dozen or so 789s. Same sized jet as the 333 and better burn, cheaper maintenance (?) And some of the 333s are getting tired.

[Rated De]

Oh, it's EBA time, must have something to scare the worker's with...

Right now in a super secret hiding spot, the covert team at Fort Fumble have spent months working the name of this new project...

'Project Sunset'

So long has Little Napoleon talked of new aircraft that his covert team realised the industry long ago re-equipped and moved on and that the sun has set...

[Roj approved]

From what I understand the tanks are the same size. The engines are de-rated and the config is more dense. Which is why they don’t have the range.

The origanal plan at JQ was to take the -8s setup the network, take some -9s and give the -8s back to QF as transcontinental machines. Hence why they were setup without crew rest etc.

The tanks are the same size, 101 tonnes of fuel.

The engines are 70k (although originally 64k)

335 seats

30 tonnes less MTOW so range would be about the same. (Average 4.5 t/hour burn)

As for the second part, that sounds like it could have been possible, the -8 would be a good City Flyer machine.

[Rated De]

As for the second part, that sounds like it could have been possible, the -8 would be a good City Flyer machine.

That is precisely the specific plan behind the order.
They were to replace the aging 767 fleet, offering dual aisle capacity that was needed in space constrained monopoly airports. It is with more than a little irony that Little Napoleon complains of carpark charges and congestion when his fleet plan created a lot of it airside at domestic airports country wide. Instead Boston Bruce Buchanan then CEO of JQ, pitched the board that JQ was to get a few, then all the 788.
His reasoning was that ironically long haul low cost didn't work. It still doesn't but that is another discussion.

Instead Little Napoleon's preoccupation with JQ now sees QF domestic denied an aircraft that would have provided brand differentiation, yield potential and the ability to swing capacity when needed.
Instead QF cram 737 aircraft into already crowded terminal areas, onto crowded aprons and congested runways and have the temerity to claim that it is 'efficient'

[Beer Baron]

30 tonnes less MTOW so range would be about the same.

Not sure about that. The 30T lower MTOW equates to about 345 passengers, and the stretched fuselage is not 30T heavier so unless the -8 is flying empty then the -9 will have a greater range.

[MACH082]

The higher thrust engines and increased max takeoff weight of the -9 mean it can fill the tanks to the brim and carry a reasonable load.

You cant fill the tanks up in a 335 seat -8 and expect to carry 335 punters.

The ZFW of both is not hugely different from what I understand.

[Roj approved]

Not sure about that. The 30T lower MTOW equates to about 345 passengers, and the stretched fuselage is not 30T heavier so unless the -8 is flying empty then the -9 will have a greater range.

Yes Beer Baron, I see your point. The Basic Empty Weights difference wouldn’t be much, but QF wouldn’t have much over 200 in an -8, so the tanks could be filled and the range would be similar.

Anyway, the QF 787 training manager has flown both so I’m sure he will be able to provide the numbers if this was to happen.

If there was any swapping of -8 for -9 or vis versa, you can guarantee it won’t be done until the new EA’s are signed off in favour of the company.

[RickNRoll]

There are currently rumours Qantas will be announcing an order of 737 MAX, A321neo, A330neo, A350, 788's returning from Jetstar and 777X. There was even a recent rumour of additional A380's (that rumour is probably dead now!)
Believe what you like, however AJ hasn't ordered any aircraft for Qantas since becoming CEO.
New aircraft orders are not good for his share price!!

What about the very soon to be announced in the very near future 797?

[ANCDU]

Yes Beer Baron, I see your point. The Basic Empty Weights difference wouldn’t be much, but QF wouldn’t have much over 200 in an -8, so the tanks could be filled and the range would be similar.

Anyway, the QF 787 training manager has flown both so I’m sure he will be able to provide the numbers if this was to happen.

If there was any swapping of -8 for -9 or vis versa, you can guarantee it won’t be done until the new EA’s are signed off in favour of the company.

If Qantas don’t put more than 200 in a 787 why get it back. From what I read the A321 NEO can take up to 240 pax , I understand J* currently carry 230.Domestically even if you throw a few rows of business in you would still get over 200 pax in , with freight, at a burn of slightly less than a 738. Even trans continental the numbers don’t really stack up for a 787 return to domestic with around 200 seats.

Saying that, and knowing the current management it’s probably on the cards!!

[MACH082]

That’s going to be the conundrum with the 797.

The A321neo can carry over 200 in a dual class layout, and can do up to 4000nm. The 797 will have to be keenly priced and offer significant savings for it to be worthwhile.

The A321neo a very capable machine. Which is why I think the days are numbered for 787s at JQ.

[ANCDU]

That’s going to be the conundrum with the 797.

The A321neo can carry over 200 in a dual class layout, and can do up to 4000nm. The 797 will have to be keenly priced and offer significant savings for it to be worthwhile.

The A321neo a very capable machine. Which is why I think the days are numbered for 787s at JQ.

i agree with the last part, I see J* as being a solely narrow body airline in the not too distance future. The only thing that changes that could be the emergence of new markets that could be targeted by J*.

[Beer Baron]

The 321NEO still wouldn't be able to fly JQ's Japan, Hawaii, Thailand and Vietnam routes would it? (Let alone connect up to Jetstar Hong Kong :ouch:)

[wheels_down]

In a expected dense configuration HNL would be an issue westbound. Cairns to Japan would work.

PR have been flying it MNL-SYD/MEL which is the longest in this part of the world.

Still an an absolute weapon on long distance range over the MAX 10. But I don’t think Virgin intended to use it on 7-10 hour trips so will just carry higher loads domestically which is probably a wise call after seeing recent profit numbers.

They did state they also intend to use them domestically to relieve some of the demand pressure with Sydney which is still over half a decade away from Western opening.

[ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE]

It has been communicated to the JQ pilot group in a video with Airbus representatives and JQ flight ops management late last year that the JQ A321neoLRs are only being configured with one additional fuel tank and its range will be enough to fly Sydney Bali with winter jet streams and around 90 mins fuel over destination. Hence a useable range of around 2,500nm.

This won’t be enough range to allow the LR to replace the 787-8 on most SE Asian routes.

The 4000nm range quoted by airbus is with 3 additional centre tanks and a light cabin configuration​​​​​​.

Don’t forget those 232 pax on the JQ A321neoLRs have to put their bags somewhere and for every additional centre tank that is put in the aircraft a ULD position is taken away.

[Rated De]

Great discussion, however has Little Napoleon actually ordered a solitary aircraft for Qantas in over a decade?

[SixDemonBag]

Does a desk model count???
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/933x700/100_787_qantas_desk_934x700_c6ac2ae769b8d333120dfe79c2411c21 fccf4d96.jpg

[PlasticFantastic]

Great discussion, however has Little Napoleon actually ordered a solitary aircraft for Qantas in over a decade?

He's confirmed that QF will order its ULH aircraft this year, and that they will use the non-ULH version of the same aircraft family for thicker, shorter routes.

He's also confirmed that they'll make a decision on narrowbody replacement next year.

They also have B787 options that can be used to replace the A330s for Asia flying, if required, depending on whether some of that flying goes to B797s or A359/Ks.

In other words, there is a timeframe to begin replacing almost the entire fleet (barring QFLink). We can continue chipping management for not having replaced the fleet sooner, if we like, but surely the more interesting and relevant discussion is what decisions they should make over the next 18 months.

[Rated De]

Does a desk model count???
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/933x700/100_787_qantas_desk_934x700_c6ac2ae769b8d333120dfe79c2411c21 fccf4d96.jpg


Brilliant..

[ConfigFull]

He's confirmed that QF will order its ULH aircraft this year, and that they will use the non-ULH version of the same aircraft family for thicker, shorter routes.

He's also confirmed that they'll make a decision on narrowbody replacement next year.

They also have B787 options that can be used to replace the A330s for Asia flying, if required, depending on whether some of that flying goes to B797s or A359/Ks.

In other words, there is a timeframe to begin replacing almost the entire fleet (barring QFLink). We can continue chipping management for not having replaced the fleet sooner, if we like, but surely the more interesting and relevant discussion is what decisions they should make over the next 18 months.

Plastic, you're right - to an extent. The question is, how much is this going to cost?? Goyder and the next CEO are copping the biggest hospital pass in QF's history.

Let's say it's a fuel-efficient twin, massive fuel savings (until frequency is increased but ignore that for a second) but also: cap raises on market, interest, depreciation - all of which hasn't been happening for years until the handful of 787s turned up.

[Rated De]

Plastic, you're right - to an extent. The question is, how much is this going to cost?? Goyder and the next CEO are copping the biggest hospital pass in QF's history.

Let's say it's a fuel-efficient twin, massive fuel savings (until frequency is increased but ignore that for a second) but also: cap raises on market, interest, depreciation - all of which hasn't been happening for years until the handful of 787s turned up.

It is the capex that will beach the ship.
That Little Napoleon has with the fossil Clifford sat idly by as the rudderless ship drifted ever closer to the lee shore, they quietly loaded up on options with interesting vesting dates. The strategy is either abject stupidity or simple greed. It could be a little from column A and a little from column B.

The cycle drag of the capex is very important and unfortunately if Mr Goyder chooses to sit idly by he may well wake to a nasty surprise.

[PlasticFantastic]

Agreed, capex will have to increase quite a bit over the next decade. But, I'm not as concerned about that as some.

Qantas has paid back about $3b in debt over the past few years, giving it room to take on new debt if required. It has also bought out a number of leases, and paid cash for most (all?) of the new 787s, freeing up cashflow. It has regained an investment grade rating, and has gone to pains to demonstrate that it can produce strong returns for shareholders over time.

All of those things mean that Qantas has a range of options to finance, lease or tap shareholders to pay for its fleet, and can likely do so on reasonably favourable terms - it doesn't have to pay for all of it from cashflow.

[ConfigFull]

Agreed, capex will have to increase quite a bit over the next decade. But, I'm not as concerned about that as some.

Qantas has paid back about $3b in debt over the past few years, giving it room to take on new debt if required. It has also bought out a number of leases, and paid cash for most (all?) of the new 787s, freeing up cashflow. It has regained an investment grade rating, and has gone to pains to demonstrate that it can produce strong returns for shareholders over time.

All of those things mean that Qantas has a range of options to finance, lease or tap shareholders to pay for its fleet, and can likely do so on reasonably favourable terms - it doesn't have to pay for all of it from cashflow.

Certainly not suggesting cashflow should fund capex - that would be nuts from a tax point of view alone; but all of these scenarios (to fund new aircraft) are going to decimate the balance sheet. Have a look at where the margins are: QF International is profitable on fuel price and (little) depreciation alone. Add in there funding costs and the whole thing falls apart. What happens at QF Domestic at the same time? They don't even have the massive fuel benefit (25-30% of all costs) of switching from 4-engine to 2-engine.

[PlasticFantastic]

Certainly not suggesting cashflow should fund capex - that would be nuts from a tax point of view alone; but all of these scenarios (to fund new aircraft) are going to decimate the balance sheet. Have a look at where the margins are: QF International is profitable on fuel price and (little) depreciation alone. Add in there funding costs and the whole thing falls apart. What happens at QF Domestic at the same time? They don't even have the massive fuel benefit (25-30% of all costs) of switching from 4-engine to 2-engine.

Agree, up to a point. It depends on how quickly they replace the fleet. A fair part of the B737 and A330 fleets are fairly young, and the A380s still have 7-12 years of life in them. So, I think they can space out their spending a bit.

That said, the point you make about new planes putting pressure on QFi's balance sheet in particular, is important. Based on Joyce's public statements, ASX statements, and QF's investments over the past few years, I think that it is fairly clear that QF has been trying to figure out whether buying new planes for QFi would create value, or whether QFi's competitive position is so weak that it would lose money on every new plane. The good news seems to be that QF has figured out how to fly QFi profitably again, and by:

lowering fuel and mx costs by replacing 747s and 767s with 787s - as you say, that can cut costs a lot on its own, but that obviously hasn't been enough on its own, or they would have gone a lot harder on purchasing 787s
flying routes that other airlines can't compete (heavily) on, such as LHR-PER, SYD-DFW, SYD-SCL etc - boosting revenue and reducing the risk of capacity wars
focusing on capturing more of the high-yielding traffic, by investing in products that corporate customers want (seats, service, lounges etc), using premium-heavy configurations, flying direct to business-heavy destinations, strengthening QFF, and leaving low-yield pax for JQ, EK, VA and NZ etc to fight over
flying smaller, more flexible planes, which give them more options if a market sours, and
lowering staff costs, by reducing headcount in headquarters, cheaper EBAs for pilots, crew, and ground and front-line staff, and outsourcing.

The fairly clear statements from Joyce and QF is that QFi's margins have gone up, so far, as a result of all of these changes. As long as new investments continue to boost margins, I think QFi will be ok to incrementally replace its fleet, even if that means putting some pressure on the balance sheet. The net result is that QFi looks very different today than it did 5 years ago, and it'll look even more different in 5-10 years if the trend continues. All of the public statements indicate that they are optimistic, and that the plan is to reshape the route map with new aircraft.

I don't think domestic will be as hard to replace. It's highly profitable, and has almost always been that way (except when there is a capacity war on with VA/AN etc). The benefits of moving from 738NGs to A320/1neos, B797s or 737MAXs will probably be fairly significant - upgauging will help a lot, and some of those new planes will open up interesting opportunities for regional international flying as well. Fairly easy to see a world in which QF puts a regional product on some 737MAX-10s, A321neos or 797s, and uses them for transcontinental, as well as SIN/CGK/DPS/AKL etc flying, as well as fairly happily rotating them through the triangle during peak periods.

TLDR: I'm optimistic.

[Rated De]

QF International is profitable on fuel price and (little) depreciation alone. Add in there funding costs and the whole thing falls apart. What happens at QF Domestic at the same time? They don't even have the massive fuel benefit (25-30% of all costs) of switching from 4-engine to 2-engine.

That the board and executive management knew this and failed, when cashflow was in surplus and debt could be sourced cheaply, to do anything other than buy-back shares and having done so, miraculously have a huge number of executive options vest is negligent at best.

[hazohag]

What is the difference in cost to operate for the 320 neo vs 321?
Would a fleet of solely 220, 321 and 350 work?

I'd imagine a lot of cost savings - and the three types could replace the 73, 71, 78, 332, 333, and possibly 74.
The 220 could possibly even replace a lot of Dash and Fokker flying.

Being the one manufacturer, surely a good deal could be done to transition.

[tdracer]

Being the one manufacturer, surely a good deal could be done to transition.
Actually locking yourself into one manufacture makes it far harder to get a 'good deal'. The airlines regularly play Boeing and AB off against each other to get the best possible deal. As soon as Boeing or AB decide that an airline isn't really interested in their aircraft and are just using them to play off against the other guy, they loose interest and all your bargaining power goes away.
That's why, except for some VLC operators who operate a single type, you seldom see an operator who has an all Airbus or all Boeing fleet.

[Lapon]

I'd imagine a lot of cost savings - and the three types could replace the 73, 71, 78, 332, 333, and possibly 74.

I doubt the savings would justify the acquisition costs.
This years iPhone may be better than last years, but probably not worth replacing it for.

Actually locking yourself into one manufacture makes it far harder to get a 'good deal'
Which is why Air NZ were never going to get 738's despite the decision 'being a close call'.

[thec172man]

I wonder with the latest 737MAX issues, would that sway the domestic replacement type decision towards the 320/321NEOs.

[maggot]

I wonder with the latest 737MAX issues, would that sway the domestic replacement type decision towards the 320/321NEOs.
More likely cheap 737 MAX

[thec172man]

More likely cheap 737 MAX

true, it'd be interesting to see how this pans out for Boeing and the 737 MAX program, and whether it'd be an extra incentive for QF to switch to the 320/1 NEO, with some of its advantages in the container loading, and future engine upgrade capabilities.

[machtuk]

Hope Boeing have plenty of clean sheets of paper, you can only milk a cow for so long!:}

[maggot]

true, it'd be interesting to see how this pans out for Boeing and the 737 MAX program, and whether it'd be an extra incentive for QF to switch to the 320/1 NEO, with some of its advantages in the container loading, and future engine upgrade capabilities.
Nah
Purely cheapest Capex for this mob. Then they can make efficiency gain
bonuses all-round!

[wheels_down]

I’d expect ULR order to go with Airbus and part of the agreement would be deferring half the current NEO order to the back half of this decade.

Jetstar Affiliates in other regions seem to be going there own ways in securing aircraft.

Half the fleet doesn’t need replacing. On the other hand the 20 year old 321 ****boxes need to be sent to the graveyard!

[Transition Layer]

Half the fleet doesn’t need replacing. On the other hand the 20 year old 321 ****boxes need to be sent to the graveyard!

...or Network!

[gordonfvckingramsay]

...or Network!

aaahhhhhh, LeCarrot

[morno]

Why not just give Network all the new NEO’s and then let them operate them and get rid of the 737 fleet. Will save money because the crew are more productive for less

[crosscutter]

Yawn. Fair Work Act. Yawn

[goodonyamate]

Why not just give Network all the new NEO’s and then let them operate them and get rid of the 737 fleet. Will save money because the crew are more productive for less

why not get rid of jetstar and let network operate that as well! In fact, why not get rid of everything Australian and just import everything! Jobs, products, who cares!

[Scooter Rassmussin]

Unfortunately the Network growth will be at the expense of mainline , starting in Perth .

[morno]

why not get rid of jetstar and let network operate that as well! In fact, why not get rid of everything Australian and just import everything! Jobs, products, who cares!

That’s a great idea!

[dr dre]

Unfortunately the Network growth will be at the expense of mainline , starting in Perth .

Unlikely, Network can barely keep crews for the aircraft it has now, and those F100’s are getting long in the tooth. Any extra 320’s headed there will be for F100 replacement as consolidation.

This theory that Network will be flooded with 320’s and completely replace SH is ludicrous.

[Jc31]

Unlikely, Network can barely keep crews for the aircraft it has now, and those F100’s are getting long in the tooth. Any extra 320’s headed there will be for F100 replacement as consolidation.

This theory that Network will be flooded with 320’s and completely replace SH is ludicrous.

suplus crews on both fleets at the moment. Network can definitely absorb more frames and flying right now.

[dr dre]

suplus crews on both fleets at the moment. Network can definitely absorb more frames and flying right now.

Thinking of the long run however. A lot of current crew will transfer to mainline, and 320 time in the logbook will open up a world of contract opportunities to others. Don’t see it as much of a viable aspect far beyond their current operations

[Jc31]

Thinking of the long run however. A lot of current crew will transfer to mainline, and 320 time in the logbook will open up a world of contract opportunities to others. Don’t see it as much of a viable aspect far beyond their current operations
A lot of the captain ranks already have Airbus time and for most command on other types of jets. I can’t see many if any chasing contract work overseas. Most people at network are there because they want to live in Perth. As for mainline. A few are leaving but their departure is staggered. This won’t have any effect on crewing numbers.

[ebt]

Unlikely, Network can barely keep crews for the aircraft it has now, and those F100’s are getting long in the tooth. Any extra 320’s headed there will be for F100 replacement as consolidation.

This theory that Network will be flooded with 320’s and completely replace SH is ludicrous.

The F100s will still be the go-to for most new customers for Network on the charter side, and the intrastate RPT work. Only a few sites (mostly FMG) take the A320s, and the weekend work to Broome is just utilising time that they would otherwise be on the ground in Perth, and a handy way of keeping the state government away from regulating the intrastate jet routes.

[Buckshot]

Qantas launches contest to replace small jets

SYDNEY/BOSTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Qantas Airways (QAN.AX) is in talks with several planemakers over plans to renew its main narrowbody and regional airliner fleets and is expected to formalise the negotiations with a tender announcement within days, industry sources said.

The Australian carrier is studying the Airbus (AIR.PA) A220 and Brazilian Embraer's (EMBR3.SA) E2 to replace a regional fleet of 20 Boeing 717s and 18 Fokker 100s, they added.

Boeing's 737 MAX 7, the smallest member of its best-selling single-aisle family, is also seen as a contender.

In the busiest part of the market, Airbus and Boeing (BA.N) are competing head to head as Qantas also seeks to replace Boeing 737-800s, the oldest of which are nearly 20 years old.

The combined moves could lead to staggered purchases of as many as 100 jets including options, the sources said.

In Boston, where airline executives were gathering for an industry meeting, Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce declined to comment ahead of a virtual news briefing scheduled for Monday. Planemakers Airbus, Boeing and Embraer also declined to comment.

Talks over the influential airline's business have been under way for months, but Qantas is expected to set out its requirements publicly within days as it and other airlines eye potential bargains for jets in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis.

"We've said for some time that the renewal of our domestic narrowbody fleet is on our agenda," a Qantas spokesperson said.

"It's a long-term proposition and when we have any material updates to provide, we will.”

Qantas had initially planned to place an order in 2020 but that was delayed by the pandemic. Chief Financial Officer Vanessa Hudson said in February a tender would be launched this year.

Qantas budget arm Jetstar has 109 A320neo family planes on order, but the start of deliveries has been postponed until at least July 2022 due to the impact of the pandemic.

In a separate contest dubbed 'Project Sunrise,' Qantas selected Airbus over Boeing for jets capable of staging the world's longest commercial flights from Sydney to London, but the plans were delayed by the pandemic.

Joyce said in August that order for A350-family jets would not be revisited until international borders reopened.

Australia said on Friday it would begin a staged opening of international borders next month but only vaccinated citizens and permanent residents would be included and they would be required to quarantine at home for seven days on arrival.

The country has not set a date for opening borders to foreigners.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...es-2021-10-03/ (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/qantas-launches-contest-replace-small-jets-sources-2021-10-03/)

[MelbourneFlyer]

Qantas confirms the tender for new mainline and regional jets, deliveries across 2023-2034: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/airbus-a320neo-vs-boeing-737-max-as-qantas-renews-domestic-jet-fleet

[brokenagain]

A350 + A320NEO + A220. :ok:

[dr dre]

Qantas confirms the tender for new mainline and regional jets, deliveries across 2023-2034: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/airbus-a320neo-vs-boeing-737-max-as-qantas-renews-domestic-jet-fleet

Deliveries planned until 2034, meaning they’ll probably keep the newest 738s in service til the end of their service life, may be a consideration for the MAX as a mixed MAX/NG fleet is easier to handle than a mixed 320/NG fleet.

In any case the choice of competitors isn’t surprising, no one expected the Sukhoi Superjet 100 to be in the running did they?

[Goat Whisperer]

In any case the choice of competitors isn’t surprising, no one expected the Sukhoi Superjet 100 to be in the running did they?

what about a surprise bid from China with ARJ21s and CR919s!

(tongue firmly in cheek)

[neville_nobody]

My money is on the 737 Max as they will be the cheapest option and everyone can keep on shoehorning themselves into a domestic aircraft for another 20+ years. Joyce is already winging about prices in that article so we all know what this is about and it's not passenger experience and comfort.

[PoppaJo]

The A320/1 order is still too heavy for the Star, unless they push those deliveries out to early next decade. Japan does not want these.

Perhaps a A220 order with an associated change in dates for the above narrow-body order as part of the deal.

Cheap MAXs will be too hard to ignore.

[ANCDU]

I think with economies of scale and the ability to shift airframes between entities as required as per Jetstar and Network, coupled with the ULA cargo loading, reduced ground handling costs and crews being able to do the load calculations I think the 737 days in Qantas colours might unfortunately me numbered ( as a tear drops from my eye!)

I think the only real question will be does short haul mainline survive or does the domestic fleet become “link” with the associated flying done under an entity, leaving long haul the only mainline brand ??

[PoppaJo]

Boeing won’t let the 737 vanish from the fleet. They will give them 50 for next to nothing if they need to.

MAX and NEO is end of life for this narrow body series, Boeing will want QF in its court for the next 20 years, so they can transition them over to whatever follows the MAX. Otherwise they will be in bed with Airbus forever and ever.

[nivsy]

A350 + A320NEO + A220. :ok:
Absolutely and this post was the first mention of the 220? I suspect the 220 could be Australia bound for the F100s.

[nivsy]

The A320/1 order is still too heavy for the Star, unless they push those deliveries out to early next decade. Japan does not want these.

Perhaps a A220 order with an associated change in dates for the above narrow-body order as part of the deal.

Cheap MAXs will be too hard to ignore.
Yes on the 220....maybe?

[aussieflyboy]

Absolutely and this post was the first mention of the 220? I suspect the 220 could be Australia bound for the F100s.

Too expensive for the work that the Fokker does. Fokker work will be done by Alliance (in QLink colours) into the future, Network will expand into intra-state (ADL and DRW) 320 work, 717 will eventually be replaced with the newer 100 seat jets.

Whatever happens the most important thing is to not let QF make it a competition to bring down Pilot wages. If your flying a 100 seat jet with a Kangaroo on the tail you should be getting paid the same as every other 100 seat company. I think NJS is the leader for wages at the moment so that’s the target for Network F100 and Alliance E-Jets as a bare minimum.

[Potsie Weber]

what about a surprise bid from China with ARJ21s and CR919s!

(tongue firmly in cheek)

Don’t tell McGowan that China makes jets. He’ll be mandating them for WA FIFO

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-01/perth-china-mcgowan-consul-general-forrest-trade-aukus-business/100502212

[Green.Dot]

Don’t tell McGowan that China makes jets. He’ll be mandating them for WA FIFO

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-01/perth-china-mcgowan-consul-general-forrest-trade-aukus-business/100502212

McFlog is sh^t scared of China invading his state so he can’t get enough of sucking up to them. No doubt he will try and use his Navy ties to cancel the subs too, don’t want to prod the bear.

Oops, thread drift, sorry.

[Derfred]

I’m surprised the French haven’t withdrawn their bid… or have they forgiven us already?

[Lapon]

My money is also on the Max.

The group wide economies of scale (regarding the bus) will be negated by Airbus being able to bend Qantas over the barrell with any fleet planning in the long distant future should all (but a few 787s) already be operated by that one manufacturer. Divide and conquer works beyond the pilot group.

Mostly however I say Max because surely they must be cheap which seems to be the priority in local fleet acquisition.
For that reason I also can't see A220s coming. Ever.

[SixDemonBag]

I’m guessing MAX. The big factor before was workers comp payouts for baggage handlers. Isn’t that all outsourced now?

Also, the 73 fleet I spread out considerable from oldest to youngest. Thought it would with transition training being drip fed Nnew max’s…as opposed with a new set of 321’s.

As much as I’d prefer tray tables. 321’s are great on paper, though.

[dr dre]

For that reason I also can't see A220s coming. Ever.

A220 listing price is 50% more than an E-195 for barely any extra capacity and a higher fuel burn, and Embraer have the advantage of a more mature airframe and plenty of existing types operating in Oz, including existing Alliance ones under the Qlink banner. Don’t really need to splash out all the bells and whistles for a regional jet.

[airdualbleedfault]

A220 to Notwork?
Tell him he's dreamin
I guess if they sold the entire Dutch oven fleet they'd have enough for a deposit...... for 1 A220 :}

[AerialPerspective]

I think with economies of scale and the ability to shift airframes between entities as required as per Jetstar and Network, coupled with the ULA cargo loading, reduced ground handling costs and crews being able to do the load calculations I think the 737 days in Qantas colours might unfortunately me numbered ( as a tear drops from my eye!)

I think the only real question will be does short haul mainline survive or does the domestic fleet become “link” with the associated flying done under an entity, leaving long haul the only mainline brand ??

I don't see QF ever allowing Tech Crew to do the Loadsheet. One of the advantages of the way it is done now on mainline is that the Crew are checking someone else's work - the system is too embedded with Altea FM down to a point now where the system is customised with very, very standardised planning and production, for those who knew the old QF ALP Load Control system, FM has something akin to the 'monitor control' in the old system which automated routine W/B functions but FM goes a lot further by taking it down to individual flight/day characteristics. Hence, the LC process is more secure with the Central LC folks doing it and the Captain signing it.

I don't see that changing in Mainline either, even with the A320neo if it ends up becoming the aircraft of choice - the ULD capability will virtually eliminate injuries on the ramp and make for quicker turnarounds. As long as they don't do the egregiously DUMB Ansett act of paying to have the ULD systems removed.

[AerialPerspective]

I’m guessing MAX. The big factor before was workers comp payouts for baggage handlers. Isn’t that all outsourced now?

Also, the 73 fleet I spread out considerable from oldest to youngest. Thought it would with transition training being drip fed Nnew max’s…as opposed with a new set of 321’s.

As much as I’d prefer tray tables. 321’s are great on paper, though.

While it's not containerised/ULD capable, the MAX, like the 738s presumably will be retrofitted with sliding carpet which does virtually the same thing but still requires some stacking of load but not crawling halfway up the compartment crouched down to stack bags - and yes, with it all outsourced now, methinks the workers comp issue is now 'Problem-belongim-ground-handling-pela'

[neville_nobody]

Isn't the issue with the ULD system that you need expensive ground equipment everywhere to make it work? It also makes diversions a bit more complicated. As opposed to just throwing a few bags down a conveyor belt.

[AerialPerspective]

Isn't the issue with the ULD system that you need expensive ground equipment everywhere to make it work? It also makes diversions a bit more complicated. As opposed to just throwing a few bags down a conveyor belt.

Exactly the argument AN used and then proceeded to spend millions over the next 20 years on injuries and compensation, with which they could have bought more loading machines than they ever needed.

Any argument about cost of the equipment is irrelevant these days because there are now many more suppliers on the market and prices are a fraction of what FMC charges (FMC is the better machine but it 3-4 times the cost).

As for diversions, we used to have them occasionally many years ago, on one occasion a QF 743 and a 762 went into CBR - they just sent the pax on TN to SYD and MEL without their bags and flew them down the next day on the aeroplane(s).

Because of JQ, most ports have scissor lift equipment now anyway so I think the diversion point is moot.

[neville_nobody]

Exactly the argument AN used and then proceeded to spend millions over the next 20 years on injuries and compensation, with which they could have bought more loading machines than they ever needed.

Let me guess, the cost of the ground equipment affected someones budget and therefore their bonus but they could pay workers comp forever without impunity.:rolleyes:

Someone should write a book on all the stupid short term self serving decisions made by airline management. It would be quite interesting.

[Roj approved]

Let me guess, the cost of the ground equipment affected someones budget and therefore their bonus but they could pay workers comp forever without impunity.:rolleyes:

Someone should write a book on all the stupid short term self serving decisions made by airline management. It would be quite interesting.

And it still goes on to this day :-(

[AerialPerspective]

Let me guess, the cost of the ground equipment affected someones budget and therefore their bonus but they could pay workers comp forever without impunity.:rolleyes:

Someone should write a book on all the stupid short term self serving decisions made by airline management. It would be quite interesting.

Well, it's no surprise in that organisation, since 'Sir Peter' ordered the A320, an aircraft that had the same mission as the 737-300 and then ordered the 737-300 as well.

And you're probably correct, it was the capex element but the stupid thing about that is their accountants were obviously morons as said ground equipment would have provided an ongoing deduction against profits based on depreciation.

By that point though I suspect the owners of AN in that era (pre-Air NZ) were well into their asset stripping program, TV Stations, Land, Newspapers, all removed from Ansett Holdings and aircraft bought to leverage TNT's entry into Europe.

I can't remember where but I read many years ago about how the entire DC-9 fleet which had a 'written down value' of $600K per airframe, was sold to a shelf company in a tax haven for that value, then on-sold for their individual market value of $6M per airframe. I'll leave it up to people to guess who the TWO owners of the alleged 'shelf-company in a tax haven' were.......

I'm not sure that happens today (it would be illegal in a public company) but certainly manipulation of the market occurs via so-called share buybacks. Buy-backs used to be illegal in the United States until "W" came along because they were considered by the FEC and the Treasury to be market manipulation.

They still are.

[AerialPerspective]

And it still goes on to this day :-(

Even at a micro level such as a CEO deciding its important for his a-se to sit in a premium cabin seat but not a Pilot who is paxing across the country to effect the operation of an aircraft with 200-300 people on board....... that was the epitome of arrogance and self-importance, while on the way to running the company he headed into the ground as evidenced by Administration and on-sale of what was left to a private equity company.

[Blitzkrieger]

A220 to Notwork?
Tell him he's dreamin
I guess if they sold the entire Dutch oven fleet they'd have enough for a deposit...... for 1 A220 :}

The rumour has grown enough legs to get the boys and girls over there to consider bending over for a crappy agreement though. Gotta get that new hardware at all costs hey kids :rolleyes:

[nivsy]

A220 to Notwork?
Tell him he's dreamin
I guess if they sold the entire Dutch oven fleet they'd have enough for a deposit...... for 1 A220 :}
Do they not lease aircraft in Australia then? 🤔 Having said that yes I guess the A220 is to good for Aussie market...🤭

[PoppaJo]

The whole purpose of making these WA contracts work is by not operating factory fresh wizz bang new aircraft. It’s all about maximising profit. They have the contract, they know the earnings available, they are not about to go and burn that all on new French built aircraft.

Virgin are taking on a few A320s, offloads those near new 737s back to the east.

[nivsy]

French built? Ummmm no ....but I get the contracts and the "need" not to concentrate on customer experience and comfort .

[ebt]

The whole purpose of making these WA contracts work is by not operating factory fresh wizz bang new aircraft. It’s all about maximising profit. They have the contract, they know the earnings available, they are not about to go and burn that all on new French built aircraft.

Virgin are taking on a few A320s, offloads those near new 737s back to the east.

That may be the case now, but BHP and Rio are both talking a big game about reducing their Scope 3 emissions, which covers the air transport to/from site. It's likely that will mean stepping from F100s to A320ceos and maybe E1 series E190s in the first instance, but it's conceivable that if QF bought some shiny new A220s/E2s for the east coast that in time they would find their way West in a few years.

[GoldCoastTobacconist]

The rumour has grown enough legs to get the boys and girls over there to consider bending over for a crappy agreement though. Gotta get that new hardware at all costs hey kids :rolleyes:

Like rolling over the current one?