Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

[vp89]

Dear Members of the forum,

After a handful of applications being rejected for myself and my colleagues, after meeting numerous jobless pilots during the airline interviews, I am trying to understand, how it is possible that the industry experiences the shortage of pilots, even though there are loads of licence holders ready to fly and unable to get a position. Hence, after many thoughts I would like you (newbies and experienced pilots) to express your opinions about the pilots' shortage issue. Is it real? Does the airline industry actually needs that many pilots? Or is it just a campaign induced by the airline industry, flight training organisations and aircraft manufacturers to support their revenue by increasing number of pilots trained and reducing their wages at airlines?

[bafanguy]

Hence, after many thoughts I would like you (newbies and experienced pilots) to express your opinions about the pilots' shortage issue. Is it real?

As far as the US goes, I remain a skeptic about the whole shortage notion. There's admittedly pressure on the system in spots; that's not a shortage.

But, we're all largely The Blind Men and the Elephant on the subject.

I get the impression that Europe is also flush with aspiring pilots.

Every pilot on earth began as a 200 hour-ish pilot; not one is born with 10,000 hours large airplane PIC time.

The industry may have to reconsider how those new pilots get from new to experienced but there'll be plenty of aspirants for the industry to bring along.

I suggest the problem lies with the calcified thought processes of the industry itself.

[flyhigh85]

My experience and feel is that it is not a pilot shortage at all. Only the bottom feeders are in demand but that is only because their T&C are ****. Very much induced by airlines and Flight schools, I heard the same in 2010 and it was surely Not a shortage then... u needed 500-1000 hrs on type to even be considered.

[racedo]

When you are in a job there seems to be a complete shortage as everyone needing people, once out of a job there is no shortage and nobody hiring.

[MXer]

I am actually working in recruitment for a company that hires „200hrs-pilots“ and offers a free A320 type rating (2yrs bond- a fair deal I think).
There are enough candidates who apply but there‘s also a high number that just isn‘t suitable for the job.
So I agree that there is a shortage of SKILLED pilots (independent of prev. flight experience).

[stoneangel]

reality.
I found a job, on jet, I would never have found one in 2008 or so...date where I finished my training and was unemployed.
So it is a reality.
Good luck

[His dudeness]

There is no shortage and there never ever has been one. Myth.

[RHSandLovingIt]

Dear Members of the forum,

After a handful of applications being rejected for myself and my colleagues, after meeting numerous jobless pilots during the airline interviews, I am trying to understand, how it is possible that the industry experiences the shortage of pilots, even though there are loads of licence holders ready to fly and unable to get a position.
Unfortunately, simply holding a licence does not necessarily equate to being a fit for the position on offer. I think it has been said a lot... it's not a "pilot shortage"... it's an "experienced/skilled pilot shortage". I know where I am, they stated during the interview and during initial training that while they really really really needed pilots, they had not, and would not, lower their standards.

So, despite the jokes to contrary, airlines in general, require a lot more than "a licence and a pulse"... Unfortunately, in a place like Europe where recruitment of 200 hr pilots onto jets is seen as the "norm"... it's ridiculously easy to get the 200hr part, not so easy to get the "what the airlines want" part. So you end up with a lot of 200hr pilots, a lot of whom cannot get jobs as this particular market is saturated and/or they simply don't have the other qualities that airlines are looking for.

Elsewhere in the world, where things like 1000+ TT for a regional turboprop job is the "norm", there is more of a shortage because, while it is still easy to get the 200hr part (pay your money, do your flight training), it isn't so easy to get the other 800+ hours... and on top of that, the airlines generally want "quality" 800+ hours... like ATO or Turbine or Multi time.

And even if you manage to crack the hours... airlines still want the other things like personality, attitude, ability to cope under pressure etc... I know several experienced guys who were unsuccessful at interviews.

[vp89]

Hence, what the most of you are saying, airlines need pilots with some experience. That is totally understandable as you will find no company in the industry willing to spend money on their employees. However, the airline industry is different as young pilots need a significant investment in their training, whether for ab-initio or type-rating. And this is where the hindrance exists. If there is a guarantee of a position after training, the investment is reasonable. But now the issue is that you are not guaranteed of anything. Thus, the question is how to stop the industry pulling the wool over young pilots' eyes? Moreover, how to stop the industry looking at young people as cash cows? The picture of a pilot job as almost a royal privilege with money raining was created during the decades, but now it looks just like a Ponzi scheme, where the young people are buying uncertainty rather than choosing another careers with less investment.

[ivannafly]

Yes, I agree a giant pyramid or ponzi scheme.
I have said the same. no light at end of tunnel
IF I apply for a FO job on a GV and they want 3000 TT and 500 hours on a jet
and I only have 200 hours multi piston time and they reject me. OK fine
but when I have applied for many jobs for FO on a ce500 and they want
1500 TT and just 100 multi and then they reject me (happened many times)
they should not cry about not being able to find pilots. Ive even written a letter
to FAA OKC explaining who I applied to and what I offer in terms of experience
and licenses etc and am not able to find a job. I did that so if any of these
airlines 121 or 135 cry to FAA about not being able to find pilots the FAA can
counter their claims by using me as an example ! Fortunately I have a cfi job
in california training mainly chinese students and some indians. the chinese
students get free ride 0 to a320 fo job ! the company pays all their training
, food, housing etc.me 80k in all my training, study, hard work. i dont expect anything
from anyone but dont cry about a pilot shortage when i applied to your airline
and you didnt even bother to reply or you told me to spend 65 dollars on some
airline apps web site. im not spending money time just to apply for a job!

[bumpy737]

I would say that there is a kind of shortage. In my previous company in Europe(stable rosters, 5 weeks vacation, no overnights) I could see less candidates coming for the assessments every year. On the other hand, the company never improved their conditions even when the biggest ”hunger” started and I heard some guys rather joined Ryanair for example.

But what definitely got worse was the quality of the candidates. 1st year - everybody was fine with the standard number of sectors in the line training, 2nd year - couple of new colleagues failed the skill test, lot of added sectors in the line training, 3rd year - even morelot added sectors, one guy even fired because he was unable to finish line training...

And if you compare the requirements that some companies posted some 5 years ago with the requirements now you will agree, that they got lower...

[FullWings]

After a handful of applications being rejected for myself and my colleagues, after meeting numerous jobless pilots during the airline interviews, I am trying to understand, how it is possible that the industry experiences the shortage of pilots, even though there are loads of licence holders ready to fly and unable to get a position. Hence, after many thoughts I would like you (newbies and experienced pilots) to express your opinions about the pilots' shortage issue. Is it real? Does the airline industry actually needs that many pilots? Or is it just a campaign induced by the airline industry, flight training organisations and aircraft manufacturers to support their revenue by increasing number of pilots trained and reducing their wages at airlines?
Interesting one. I have lived through several projected "pilot shortages” and they seemed similar to other shortages, like water and food, where the underlying problem was distribution rather than an absolute lack of resources. There is also the issue in our market where one unemployed pilot = surplus but one less than required = cancelled flights, plus the fact that aircraft manufacturers are always extremely bullish about future demand/production, which drives a lot of the “we need X more pilots in the next Y years” stuff.

Things *may* be a little different this time round as there will be significant numbers of the most experienced pilots leaving the industry in the coming decade - you can tell a slight squeeze is happening already as for the right candidates, some of the contracts in places like China are having the T&Cs ramped up considerably. This doesn’t immediately help those down at the 200hr level but it is an encouraging sign.

Back in the day, there were three main routes into the airlines: self-improver/GA, military and airline sponsored. Now, it’s much more difficult/expensive to come in by the hours-building route, the militaries have been sucked almost dry and most airlines have got greedy and let private concerns make a “product” for them. The last item I think will be the most problematic as it has divorced supply from demand: as long as they’re making money the schools are happy to churn out pilots but that is constrained to those who are able to pay for it in the first place. There are rumours of some carriers starting up cadet schemes but the lead times from having the idea to someone qualified and sitting in the RHS are long.

The final problem is that being a somewhat cyclical industry, historically the growth/shrinkage of airline capacity has been rather out of phase with pilot supply, in that you train up a load of pilots and by the time they’re ready to do the jobs they aren't there any more...

[beamender99]

Unfortunately, simply holding a licence does not necessarily equate to being a fit for the position on offer. I think it has been said a lot... it's not a "pilot shortage"... it's an "experienced/skilled pilot shortage". I know where I am, they stated during the interview and during initial training that while they really really really needed pilots, they had not, and would not, lower their standards.

So, despite the jokes to contrary, airlines in general, require a lot more than "a licence and a pulse"...

A few years ago I attended with my son a British Airways presentation re recruitment of young guys and girls to become pilots.
" Hands up who wants to be a pilot" got the obvious response.
" We are not recruiting pilots!!! We are looking for people who can manage a team. They will then be trained to fly."

[Selfmade92]

As far as the US goes, I remain a skeptic about the whole shortage notion. There's admittedly pressure on the system in spots; that's not a shortage.

But, we're all largely The Blind Men and the Elephant on the subject.

I get the impression that Europe is also flush with aspiring pilots.

Every pilot on earth began as a 200 hour-ish pilot; not one is born with 10,000 hours large airplane PIC time.

The industry may have to reconsider how those new pilots get from new to experienced but there'll be plenty of aspirants for the industry to bring along.

I suggest the problem lies with the calcified thought processes of the industry itself.

My salary doubled as a BE99 PIC. My company pays BE1900 captains now 100k/yr. These are entry level gigs, 1,200h TT. Looking at the regionals, making 60k 1st year isn't bad either, or Delta, Southwest, their Captains are making bank, same for their F/Os.

[EDDT]

European Cockpit Association Paper (https://www.eurocockpit.be/positions-publications/pilot-shortage-europe-fact-or-fiction)

[bafanguy]

European Cockpit Association Paper (https://www.eurocockpit.be/positions-publications/pilot-shortage-europe-fact-or-fiction)


"The ‘pilot shortage’ debate is an oversimplified way to brand the ‘coverup’ of many structural problems in the industry."

That's a really good article and supports my notion of "...the calcified thought processes of the industry itself.".

[Denti]

"The ‘pilot shortage’ debate is an oversimplified way to brand the ‘coverup’ of many structural problems in the industry."

That's a really good article and supports my notion of "...the calcified thought processes of the industry itself.".

Indeed. Currently experience that myself. My current employer decided to hire quite a few number of ex captains, that passed the DEC process and then put them in the right seat. Due to its extremely long winded and calcified structures they will not be captains again, either for quite a few years, or forever with that outfit. Therefore, any notion of having a shortage even of qualified and experienced pilots seems to be completely bogus. Now, why do those individuals stay there? Simply, the conditions are still better than with other outfits and the quality of life wins in the end.

[Ian W]

European Cockpit Association Paper (https://www.eurocockpit.be/positions-publications/pilot-shortage-europe-fact-or-fiction)

A good article. It seems to justify the approach of 'Aviation Universities' like Purdue and Embry Riddle where flying is a 'lab' in the degrees awarded. So the more rounded aviation education is provided to bachelors or masters level as 'just another' STEM subject.

[S speed]

It took me 3 years to get my first job, on a single piston. That lasted a few months. After that 2 and a half years later and I got a short gig on a multi turboprop. Another 1 year 10 months in-between jobs I managed to get on a slightly bigger turboprop. That lasted for about 1 and a half years. All the jobs up to that point paid less than $1000 a month. Now finally I'm on a modern jet airliner earning decent money.

There is a massive shortage for experienced crew. For low time guys/gals bite the bullet and keep pushing for that break, or call it a day and throw in the towel.

[Rated De]

Myth. Longer term strategy to drive down terms and conditions.

The airlines need to get more pilots fighting for a job. And it is working, flying schools in Europe have solid bookings for ATPL courses. As supply goes up, conditions go down, fact of life hombre.

I have only ever read article’s from manufacturers and employers saying there is a shortage, NEVER A PILOT/JOBSEEKER.






In demographics is destiny.
The reason why four or five generations of pilots have not seen a shortage is because this one has not been experienced before.

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/


"The ‘pilot shortage’ debate is an oversimplified way to brand the ‘coverup’ of many structural problems in the industry."

With staggering entry costs, a narrow skill band, restrictive state rules and limited employers, the employers had the upper hand with unlimited supply a cornerstone element of their model.
.Acceptance and rejection rates for new hires, and incumbent pilots was all factored on the ASSUMPTION that there existed sufficient additional supply.

Normally the business cycle sees the hiring patterns and processes re-supplied the entry level with fresh applicants. As the retirement rate continued rising, the industry model, mostly adversarial, was simply not equipped to recognise and ultimately address with changed input prices resulting from localised shortage: They continue to try to drive down terms and conditions, for that is what they always did.

Baby Boomer pilots who are the largest number — almost 50% of the pilots flying today — are about to retire. And over the next 20 years, [commercial] passengers are going to double.

From the Forbes article below, the problem the industry faces is that the recruitment, training and promotion paths, indeed the very infrastructure in which this upgrade throughput occurs cannot cope with such a roll-off of experience from the top of the experience pile. It has not been seen before, thus the industry is ill equipped to deal with it. Leaving aside the Boeing projection' of growth, which, after all is marketing, the retirement rate alone is staggering and a function of date of birth. That it represents 50% of all airline pilots in North America is making airlines notice!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2018/07/27/a-perfect-storm-pilot-shortage-threatens-global-aviation-even-private-jets/#cf3aedc15492

[Ian W]

SNIP

From the Forbes article below, the problem the industry faces is that the recruitment, training and promotion paths, indeed the very infrastructure in which this upgrade throughput occurs cannot cope with such a roll-off of experience from the top of the experience pile. It has not been seen before, thus the industry is ill equipped to deal with it. Leaving aside the Boeing projection' of growth, which, after all is marketing, the retirement rate alone is staggering and a function of date of birth. That it represents 50% of all airline pilots in North America is making airlines notice!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2018/07/27/a-perfect-storm-pilot-shortage-threatens-global-aviation-even-private-jets/#cf3aedc15492

The looming demographic shortage purely due to the airlines allowing an age 'bulge' in their pilots, is one of the reasons for the pressure for reduced or remote pilots - with autonomous aircraft. There literally may be no other way of keeping some air carriers running.

[Rated De]

The looming demographic shortage purely due to the airlines allowing an age 'bulge' in their pilots, is one of the reasons for the pressure for reduced or remote pilots - with autonomous aircraft. There literally may be no other way of keeping some air carriers running.

Automated aircraft?
With the pied piper at Tesla promising driverless cars, last year, this year and apparently us all living on Mars by 2020, one needs look a little beyond the marketing

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/31/tesla-car-crash-autopilot-mountain-view

Perhaps before pilots scare themselves, the normal market clearing mechanism will likely become more obvious; improvements in terms and conditions will induce more supply.

[DeepUnderground]

There may be a shortage of (people willing to go 100k into debt for entry level jobs)

[captain8]

If an experienced Airbus Captain/FO , wants to join , say Ryanair, they pay for the rating to work there.
If a similar experienced Boeing Captain/FO wants to join easyjet, they pay for their rating to work there.

If an experienced Airline Captain joins a legacy carrier, they start at the bottom.

Companies now want pilots ready trained, on a plate. So who's actually doing the training?
Ultimately, its the individuals themselves, at some point.

Therefore, there's no shortage of experienced crew, simply its not appealing to now change employer with the constraints of the modern
day recruitment processes and associated financial terms placed on accepting employment.

[Ian W]

To Ensure its Planes have Pilots, Airbus is opening its own flight academy.Aircraft manufacturers have been sounding the alarm of an upcoming airline pilot shortage around the globe.
Boeing has predicted (http://investors.boeing.com/investors/investor-news/press-release-details/2018/Boeing-Forecasts-Unprecedented-20-Year-Pilot-Demand-as-Operators-Face-Pilot-Supply-Challenges/default.aspx) an “unprecedented” demand of 790,000 pilots for airlines worldwide during the next 20 years due to “record-high air travel demand and a tightening labor supply.” Airbus predicts (https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/global-market-forecast.html) that Europe alone will need 94,000 new pilots during the next 20 years. So to help solve the problem, it has decided to start its own pilot academy.
Airbus Flight Academy (https://thepointsguy.com/news/airbus-flight-academy/)

[STEXUP]

This job has simply become not appealing. Who the fiuck wants to spend 90 hours a month in flying tube for half of the money that once was made spending on it half . The life style money career path , beside legacy carrier and not all of them,, just sucks.

[RatherBeFlying]

In the decades after WWII, you got trained by the military and moved to the airlines when your time was up. As previously noted, the military has cut way back on flying and training pilots. Last Summer I bumped into a squadron full of C-17 pilots hiking Logan Pass - all in their 20s with about 200 hours. Bottom line the military can turn out highly capable complex jet pilots in under 200 hours.

Then there was the time when civilian flight training was affordable for the wages on offer to younger folk. Your first job would get you out of your parents' basement and pay for flying. You could then instruct until the next step on the ladder opened up. Much less of that now.

The shortage is of people ready and able to plunk down $100,000+ on a lottery ticket for a long internship in a crap job on starvation wages that may or may not lead to a half decent job.
​​​​​

[Denti]

In the decades after WWII, you got trained by the military and moved to the airlines when your time was up. As previously noted, the military has cut way back on flying and training pilots.
​​​​​

That was not universally the case. In Europe it was airlines training their cadets largely inhouse right from the street in abinitio programs. Which lead eventually to the Lufthansa-developed MPL program that has been ICAO adopted quite a few years ago. The military was at best an additional source, but not the main one. However, both, the airlines and the military used a similar initial selection and training style, assuring a certain quality of trainees. Those selections still exist, however, the cost of the training has now been transferred from the airlines to the applicants.

[BluSdUp]

Hi
I find the facts interesting , something that is hard to come by these days.
The FAA" Estimated Active Airmen Certificates Held" table is very good.
From what gather there was 270 000 ATP and Commercial pilots in 2009.
As low as 254 000 in 2016.
And 262 000 as of December 2018.
I am just using the Fixed wing ATP and Commercial column only.
I would imagine from this there less pilots available for more jobs!
Crisis , not yet.
What I would love to know is the age groups of those ATPs
Regards
Cpt B

[bafanguy]

What I would love to know is the age groups of those ATPs

Table 13 from this link for each year ?

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/

[Big Pistons Forever]

As someone with 30 + years working in commercial aviation I can safely say I have never seen so much movement and so many opportunities for low time new entrants. However IMO I have also never seen such low levels of skill in new hires flying serious iron. Historically new pilots either worked their way up through the GA or 3rd level commuter school of hard knocks or came out of a gold plated airline run cadet program with a high entry bar and a very high level of training quality ( essentially the model that allows the Military to safely and effectively put a 300 hr pilot in a fighter jet).

Now in Europe there is essentially no GA and everyone comes out of an airline puppy mill where ability to pay is the main entry bar.

In Canada there is a real GA sector but there is such a demand that a MEIFR CPL, a pulse, and 500 hrs will force you to choose among multiple employment offers on Q400's and Regional jets.

It is only in the US that the ATPL requirements for virtually all airline jobs forces new pilots to make their bones in the real world before they get on with an airline. I think this process serves to weed out most of the unmotivated and the poseurs with the ones left being the the guys and gals who truly have the flying bug. I don't think it is coincidence that the US continues to leads the world in flight safety incident/accident metrics.

[BluSdUp]

Thanks
So , In 2002 CPL was average age 45,5 and ATPs 46,6 years.
In 2018 per 31 December FAA CPL active pilots was 46,3 so stable.
The ATPs on the other hand is average 51 years old, ie a massive retirement in progress!!!
Keep in mind that in 2009 there was 125 619 CPL and 144 600 ATP total 270 219 Fixed Wing pilots.
In 2018 there was only 262 015 total BUT 162 145 ATP and only 99 880 CPL, ergo the picture is worse then I suspected.

Need to digest this and would love to have the same in Europe.
( PS You can subtract a 54 year old ATP holder from that list, Yours truly.)
Just out of curiosity ,what is the contracted retirement age in the Majors and the Commuters, anyone?
Again BG : Thanks. The facts are out there, indeed!
Regards
Cpt B

[FlightDetent]

I don't think it is coincidence that the US continues to leads the world in flight safety incident/accident metrics. While I agree in general with your thoughts, and could not put most of it better even if I tried, one thing came to mind:

If easyJet in EU could be the overseas equivalent of Southwest: best paying LoCo and the most thoughtful of working conditions (okay okay, one eyed leading...)
- why the staggering difference in landing incidents?

Especially as what you write is really true and the most expensive jet-direct programme rooted from an EZY TRE back in the days.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Average new hire at Southwest has over 3000 hrs, average new hire at Easyjet has 250......

[FlightDetent]

Exactly my point.

[bafanguy]

Just out of curiosity ,what is the contracted retirement age in the Majors and the Commuters, anyone?

As far as I know, it's the regulatory max age at FAR Part 121 operations. Some carriers will have a provision for early retirement with the details varying I'd imagine.

When I retired under a defined-benefit plan with a monthly annuity payout, the penalty was 3% per year early. I left 4 years ahead of the regulatory max age and lost 12% of what the full payout would've been. Then they terminated the pension plan and it all became moot.

I have no idea what airlines are doing today with a defined-contribution retirement plan.

In either case, retirement is based on regulatory max age.

[BluSdUp]

BG
Indeed, and in 2009 Congress decided 60 was to young and 65 was the magic number in FAA Land.
The reason I am asking is that it changed a bit earlier in Europe and KLM for example had 57 as the Contracted retirement age.
But as You say it is all in changing nowadays so my hobby statistics are , shall we say a bit up in the air!
But to conclude for today from what I can see from the FAA stats I can only conclude this.
1 January 2019 there is 162 145 ATPs . Most are Commanders with an average age of 51.
1 January 2019 there is 99 880 CPLs No Commanders with an average age of 46,6.
A grand total of 262 015 airline pilots.
Assuming quite a number of the FOs in the Majors and the Commuters are holding an ATP that means that the average Cpt is well over 51!

Indeed Boeing stated in 2016 that in 2026, 42% of ALL pilots flying for the Majors would have to retire for the 65 year limit.
A pilot crisis, potentially, ABSOLUTELY. Its in the numbers. Simple!
How to avoid?
Crank up the numbers!
On the Pay Check!
Simple!

Happy Days
Cpt B

[slate100]

I've read the Boeing and Airbus public stats that Asia will need some obscene number of pilots over the coming years.

I'm pretty sure Boeing and Airbus just pull those numbers out their ass.

[N1EPR]

There are thousands of US pilots commuting to work in foreign lands. I was one of them and one time. I know most or all of them would be quick to take a job in the US if the pay was right.

[bringbackthe80s]

You’ve got to love pprune. So many gems. That’s usually the case is it, the captain unable to fly and the top gun FO saves the day.

[hec7or]

I think there’s a clue in the username.....

[bafanguy]

There are thousands of US pilots commuting to work in foreign lands. I know most or all of them would be quick to take a job in the US if the pay was right.

Well, in many but not all places in the US, the pay IS right but will come with some affiliated considerations that might not suit everyone, e.g., going to the bottom of a seniority list, etc. Some expats have come back with success while others tried and failed. They can claim there's no age bias in their hiring but I just don't believe that despite seeing them trot out an example or two of some 50 y/o candidate. And experience ? Do they think you might just have a little too much experience to be trainable according to their notions of cultural fit ? They'll never admit that...

But more importantly, it's not as easy as just agreeing to come home to one of those positions with the good pay and career potential. The HR types (and that includes those with a license and medical in their pockets) have some notion of ignoring experience and technical competence in favor of something called a good "cultural" fit...you know, a proper employee. These 30 potential years of employment suitability are determined by 30 minutes across from an interview panel and some shrink-related testing.

They will (and currently do...even the lesser quality carriers) pass up untold numbers of experienced candidates here in the US and have constructed a gauntlet of hurdles to even getting an interview: career "expos" where you spend money and time just getting there to stand in lines for hours for the "opportunity" for a few minutes face to face with some recruiter, meet-the-chief-pilot events (same idea as expo but fewer numbers and much harder to get an invitation), video interviews, online application processes that stymie even the most astute applicant if not completely prevent his data from being submitted at all in the form allegedly demanded by the HR types. All this to just get an interview.

So, all of this mumbo-jumbo in lieu of hiring experienced aviators... proven entities...and then convincing them they made the right choice in accepting the job by not treating them like dirt once on the payroll thereby creating a suitable employee.

[and no, I'm not looking for a job nor is any job looking for me...I just observe]

[eiffel]

It would be interesting to know the 2019 recruitment figures for european airlines……
EasyJet, Eurowings, Volotea, Ryanair, Lufthansa, BA, Air France, Wizzair, Vueling….

[MaverickPrime]

I’m just an outsider looking in, but I see a perfect storm brewing in the USA that could potentially leave them short of pilots.

Take a look at Ryanair here in the EU. A cadet leaves flying school with 250hrs, joins Ryanair straight on to a 737. In their 2nd year they are earning equivalent $98k, 4 years they are a captain earning equivalent $168k, 8 years they are a TRE(check pilot) earning $191k. They can be based near home and have 12/13 days a month off excluding standby duties. They also dont have to pay for their healthcare or kids education and if they’ve any sense, they will pick a low tax EU country to base themselves in. Incidentally Ryanair has a perfect 30 year safety record.

Whilst salaries in the USA can be much higher than this, it takes a long long time to get them. IMVHO, there are no opportunities like Ryanair in the USA and I think that is detering a lot of people from aiming for the airlines in the USA. We moan and groan in the EU about getting a break in the industry, but to be honest I think things in europe are better for pilots than just about any other part of the world.

[MaverickPrime]

It would be interesting to know the 2019 recruitment figures for european airlines……
EasyJet, Eurowings, Volotea, Ryanair, Lufthansa, BA, Air France, Wizzair, Vueling….

Ryanair recruited 1100 pilots in 2018, majority cadets.

[JPJP]

Exactly my point.

Southwest has nearly triple the fleet size (~ 750), and makes ~ 4000 landings per day. I’ve never seen a comparative breakdown of landing incidents between Easyjet and Southwest. How about you ?

[FlightDetent]

Southwest has nearly triple the fleet size (~ 750), and makes ~ 4000 landings per day. I’ve never seen a comparative breakdown of landing incidents between Easyjet and Southwest. How about you? I did not come here to pick up a fight, as you will clearly see in the original post. The ratio seems to be 4:1. Given the difference in operating size, extent of which I was not completely aware of, that looks allright.

[Meikleour]

"Incidentally Ryanair has a perfect 30 year safety record."

I take it that you haven't followed RYR for very long or is your definition of safety simply not killing anyone?!

[polax52]

No not usually. I'm far from a top gun. But when the Captain is an obnoxious piece of work it is quite satisfying when I can fly the aircraft better than him.
Wouldn't you agree?

Lets be honest. You sound obnoxious as well. Rightly or wrongly the Captain is the Captain. If you respect the Captains which you fly with then pretty likely you'll soon be a Captain yourself..

[cumulustratus]

No not usually. I'm far from a top gun. But when the Captain is an obnoxious piece of work it is quite satisfying when I can fly the aircraft better than him.
Wouldn't you agree?

Great that you take satisfaction in doing your job well. You do realise that a pilot's role is so much more than handling the aircraft, right? That's why we have the autopilot.

[ph-sbe]

Take a look at Ryanair here in the EU. A cadet leaves flying school with 250hrs, joins Ryanair straight on to a 737. In their 2nd year they are earning equivalent $98k, 4 years they are a captain earning equivalent $168k, 8 years they are a TRE(check pilot) earning $191k.

Whereas I got my CPL+MEP+IR and instead of flying students for the rest of my life I learned how to code. Now I fly and teach for fun and make way, way more than your TRE pilot in Silicon Valley.

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.

If that pilot shortage really comes, I always have the option to join the airlines: if the price is right.

[JPJP]

I did not come here to pick up a fight, as you will clearly see in the original post. The ratio seems to be 4:1. Given the difference in operating size, extent of which I was not completely aware of, that looks allright.

No worries. My question was genuine, not snark. I hadn’t seen any comparisons :)

[speedrestriction]

The comment about the average new hires having 250hrs to European locos is not accurate - whilst cadets do make a significant proportion of RHS recruitment, there is also a stream of experienced individuals being recruited to both seats. Last month I was working with a recently hired SFO who joined from a legacy European carrier with 16(!) years experience.

[polax52]

The comment about the average new hires having 250hrs to European locos is not accurate - whilst cadets do make a significant proportion of RHS recruitment, there is also a stream of experienced individuals being recruited to both seats. Last month I was working with a recently hired SFO who joined from a legacy European carrier with 16(!) years experience.

Poor bugger, he should have learnt to code.

[mustafagander]

It makes you wonder - 16 years as F/O??

[Easyheat]

In CPH/SAS it is 25+ years before LH Captain.

16 years is nothing if it is LH in a European Legacy Carrier.

[Denti]

It makes you wonder - 16 years as F/O??

Not that unusual in some legacy carriers in the EU. Worked for one where the average time to command was 16 to 17 years.

Still stupid to join as an SFO, buy a command via P2F and then join on the left side, it is easier and faster than internal upgrades.

[iggy]

...buy a command via P2F and then join on the left side, it is easier and faster than internal upgrades.

As usual, pilots are their own worst enemy.

[RatherBeFlying]

Whereas I got my CPL+MEP+IR and instead of flying students for the rest of my life I learned how to code. Now I fly and teach for fun and make way, way more than your TRE pilot in Silicon Valley.

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.

If that pilot shortage really comes, I always have the option to join the airlines: if the price is right.Some decades ago I was much in the same position and found coding paid multiples better than any available flying position.

Then I got downsized at 55 into a job market that was just as brutal to old coders as it was to low hour pilots.

So keep building that Plan A as you will likely be needing it not too long after you turn 35;)

[flash8]

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.Indeed I went from a Computer Science degree to a well paid IT Consultancy position, that funded a CPL/IR after resignation, then 737-300, and then back to IT/Government consultancy. I recall many Captains after I stated my previous pre-airline salary look at me as if I were crazy to give it up, and more than one told me I was foolish.

There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.

[Fotor]

After a standstill lasting a couple of years (about 2009-2013) I see a lot of movement now in the pilot market. I'm working for a semi-lowcost airline in NW Europe, and we are foreseeing problems te get pilots in the future. A lot of our FO's are 'upgrading' theirselves to the main carrier (really a lot, last year more than 10% of all pilots), so we need a lot of new guys. The new pilots are partly firsttimers, partly coming from other airlines like Ryanair. The company is even starting its own flying school to secure enough new pilots for the future.
So I don't know if there is a real shortage at this time (we still manage to attract enough new pilots), but management is taking measures for a possible shortage in the near future.

[EatMyShorts!]

https://youtu.be/j0N7Ede66mY

[ph-sbe]

Then I got downsized at 55 into a job market that was just as brutal to old coders as it was to low hour pilots.


Sad, and weird, to hear. I'm well in my 40s and have not seen anything similar. Every company I've worked for so far has a mix of junior vs experienced SWEs. But then again, I'm in silicon valley where there is always a market for people with skills. For comparison (and not to show off), my W2 income for last year was well above 300k (this includes base, bonus, RSUs etc).Of course, that includes the silicon valley bonus (cost of living is horrible). I've yet to see air crew make that.

My point being that at this point in time, young people interested in aviation must make a choice between cash and their dreams, and potentially have a plan B.

[hans brinker]

Sad, and weird, to hear. I'm well in my 40s and have not seen anything similar. Every company I've worked for so far has a mix of junior vs experienced SWEs. But then again, I'm in silicon valley where there is always a market for people with skills. For comparison (and not to show off), my W2 income for last year was well above 300k (this includes base, bonus, RSUs etc).Of course, that includes the silicon valley bonus (cost of living is horrible). I've yet to see air crew make that.

My point being that at this point in time, young people interested in aviation must make a choice between cash and their dreams, and potentially have a plan B.


Just an FYI, every captain at DL, UA, AA, SW,A FDX, UPS makes more than 300K, and quite a few FOs do too. At least 30,000 pilots make that much money.
And on a totally unrelated note:"ook uit holland??"

[wiggy]

There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.

I guess there might be more than one but the individual starring in the video EatMyShorts provided ended up flying in the Far East but (judging by a follow up video) seemed to hoping for a career change at some point.

[flash8]

I guess there might be more than one but the individual starring in the video EatMyShorts provided ended up flying in the Far East but (judging by a follow up video) seemed to hoping for a career change at some point.Yes, that was the chap!

[MaverickPrime]

Quite a few skippers in China lift $350k net if money is your thing.

[ph-sbe]

Just an FYI, every captain at DL, UA, AA, SW,A FDX, UPS makes more than 300K, and quite a few FOs do too. At least 30,000 pilots make that much money.
And on a totally unrelated note:"ook uit holland??"

I've never seen an FO go above 300k, but good for them if they do. If at flagship carriers, getting to that level requires seniority to get to the left seat, and a mix of skill and luck to get to the left seat of long-haul. In my team, I have newgrads starting at 150+, with midlevel engineers (think early to late 30s) well above 200k. While that for sure is possible at a flagship carrier, we all know that for the average flyboy hopeful, that's simply a dream that is either unattainable or will take a lot of time. Which brings me back to my original point: have a plan B.

Holland is a long time ago. Lost NL citizenship and haven't been back in a long time.

[Alpine Flyer]

And don't go flying for money alone. If you can't say "doing what I love and getting paid for it" at least sometimes, it's not the right job for you. I am not foreign to coding but I would think more than twice about changing from flying to coding just to increase my salary.

[Meester proach]

I got into flying because it looked interesting and glamorous .

I don’t want to write “ code “, even if you pay me a billion pounds TBH.

There wasn’t a version of top gun based on IT...

[FlightDetent]

There's the Matrix movie ... :ooh:

[Ian W]

I got into flying because it looked interesting and glamorous .

I don’t want to write “ code “, even if you pay me a billion pounds TBH.

There wasn’t a version of top gun based on IT...

There is a certain je ne sais quoi knowing that you guys are exercising code I wrote and systems I helped design :)
But don't expect huge sums or any thanks.

[eiffel]

How many WOW's pilots on the market? (European? Americans? Others?)

[booze]

178. Mostly Icelandic and other European nationalities.

[Meester proach]

I think they’ll be ok, plenty of A320 jobs out there

[Sailvi767]

Delta came within spitting distance of their first million dollar in one year Captains and plentry of F0’s will break 500K. 500k is probably pretty close to the norm for a widebody CA.

[Steepclimb]

I was chief pilot of a small skydive operation for several years. It was surprisingly difficult to find suitable pilots. You know pilots who I felt comfortable enough that they were competent enough not to kill our customers.

The good ones were obvious and soon moved on to better things. Others not so much. One lad seemed to fit the bill but after quite a few hours sitting right seat with him I just couldn't let him solo. CPL he might have but no. Saw him lately still floating around.
Not everyone has what it takes. So yes plenty of pilots are out there but not everyone has what it takes.

[mryan75]

Indeed I went from a Computer Science degree to a well paid IT Consultancy position, that funded a CPL/IR after resignation, then 737-300, and then back to IT/Government consultancy. I recall many Captains after I stated my previous pre-airline salary look at me as if I were crazy to give it up, and more than one told me I was foolish.

There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.
Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.

[mryan75]

There may be a shortage of (people willing to go 100k into debt for entry level jobs)
I hear this line all the time. But honestly, if you're spending $100,000 to get a CPL-ME-IA with 25 hours of twinky time, you're a moron.

[Denti]

I hear this line all the time. But honestly, if you're spending $100,000 to get a CPL-ME-IA with 25 hours of twinky time, you're a moron.

Maybe. However, with that experience the entry level jet is then an A320 or 737 and a command in five years. Of course one could get his CPL and a degree at something like Embry Riddle or UND (costs are similar) and then spend another 100k to get the required 1500 hours for his ATPL. Different systems and very different job markets.

[Hangarshuffle]

I fly with BA, KLM, S7, Turkish Airlines, Emirates, Gulf, Saudi, Oman and more and have never been held up by any sort of announcement to the effect that I've been delayed due to staff shortages/ pilots. Trains in the UK, its a different story.
So from my POV, no shortage.

[Falck]

Pilot shortage???
That is what Airbus and Boeing say.
Think about it? If you produce toy airplanes. And you like to sell them worldwide? You know in order to sell them you
have to keep the price down. So you want to make sure if your toy airplane needs batteries that the batteries are cheap.
otherwise you will not sell your toyplane.
So you create a world with to many pilots on the market. Cheap batteries. That works both for Boeing and Airbus plus it works for the airlines.
In the end it is the passengers paying for the Boeing or Airbus in their ticket price.. And they like it cheap.
A lot of flying is needed for business but a lot is also luxury article. Holidays, citytrips etc. So if people cannot or are not
willing to pay the ticket price which they don't have to. That is a big portion of the Airline passengers. They don't have to fly.
You have to attract them on board with cheap tickets. Means cheap labor.

As well getting more women in the flightdeck. They can pilot just as good as man. But is only 97% or so of pilot
community. The reason to use the media and recruit more women in the Flightdeck is the same. As above.
Ask and demand. The more pilots no matter what gender the lower/cheaper their wages. If you can attract even 3% more
female pilots you don't have to increase the wages.

Airbus started their flightschool recently. Boeing was behind MPL with their Alteon training company. All in order to sell their toys.
As long as pilots have to pay for their training, there is to many.
It should be funded by the healthy Airline.

Falck

[cumulustratus]

Pilot shortage???
That is what Airbus and Boeing say.
Think about it? If you produce toy airplanes. And you like to sell them worldwide? You know in order to sell them you
have to keep the price down. So you want to make sure if your toy airplane needs batteries that the batteries are cheap.
otherwise you will not sell your toyplane.
So you create a world with to many pilots on the market. Cheap batteries. That works both for Boeing and Airbus plus it works for the airlines.
In the end it is the passengers paying for the Boeing or Airbus in their ticket price.. And they like it cheap.
A lot of flying is needed for business but a lot is also luxury article. Holidays, citytrips etc. So if people cannot or are not
willing to pay the ticket price which they don't have to. That is a big portion of the Airline passengers. They don't have to fly.
You have to attract them on board with cheap tickets. Means cheap labor.

As well getting more women in the flightdeck. They can pilot just as good as man. But is only 97% or so of pilot
community. The reason to use the media and recruit more women in the Flightdeck is the same. As above.
Ask and demand. The more pilots no matter what gender the lower/cheaper their wages. If you can attract even 3% more
female pilots you don't have to increase the wages.

Airbus started their flightschool recently. Boeing was behind MPL with their Alteon training company. All in order to sell their toys.
As long as pilots have to pay for their training, there is to many.
It should be funded by the healthy Airline.

Falck



Truer words were rarely spoken. Well done for explaining large scale advanced economic machinery in terms everyone can grasp.

Aviation in Lady Europa is about to change drastically in my view. DY is struggling, ezy has stopped DEC recruitment and looks on their careers site as if f/o recruitment is down quite a lot as well. Ryr will need pilots for some time yet, and I guess they shall get them as the only large operator recruiting for all positions. Flag carriers are taking pilots, but not enough to keep disturbing the job market. Wow/germania/monarch/air Berlin gone with Thomas Cook apparently being put in the shop window and alitalia flying way too close to the sun for way too long.

I say gone will be the days of cadet to captain to trainer in the span of 6-7 years, probably never to be seen again as aviation in the eurozone has matured (loco at full possible expansion, legacy adjusted to correct market size)

Get in to a stable operator in the seat you want to be NOW. A recession is on the horizon, things may well look very different on the other side of it.

[MaverickPrime]

There is a lot of people saying “oh Delta skippers get $400k/yr” etc. You’ve got to remember that aviation in the US is very much a climb the ladder game. A lot of these guys started out in their teens or early 20s flying bug smashers and earning peanuts. There is an American guy on YouTube with 40 years experience and still doesn’t have enough seniority to fly LHS on the 777 at one of the majors. It’s the same in other parts of the world I.e. Aus/Nz.

In euroland it’s not so seniority driven and you can progress relatively quickly, even if you are hindered by recession or redundancy. People join airlines in Europe in their 40s and can retire as wide body captains. In Europe you start on a reasonable salary and you progress relatively quickly to captain with a good salary. The spread of earnings in Europe are not the same as the rest of the world, you generally don’t earn peanuts like a crop sprayer or the fortunes of a Dellta captain.

My my point is, if you were willing to sit down in front of excel and work out the career average salary of a US pilot versus a European pilot; you’d probably find they are very similar.

Anyway, if you are becoming a pilot for the money; you are crazy!

[longlayover]

I fully agree that some sort of recession is looming on the horizon, and we will see a change in the pilot job market, with fewer opportunities. However, there is a big difference, when we compare the last two recessions with the current or looming recession. We have to remember that in 2001 most airlines were heavily over staffed and that most authorities changed their regulations to allow pilots to fly until their 65th birthday. This left the industry with a huge surplus of trained pilots, which was not depleted when the 2008 recession hit, one of the worst recession in newer history. This lead to decrease in terms and conditions. The surplus of pilots is now very low, and number of flight students are considerably lower compared to the late nineties and the terms and conditions are slowly changing to the better. For those reasons I predict that the coming/current recession will be short and that we will see even better terms and conditions on the other side of it.

[PPRuNe Towers]

To add some perspective to the extent of the 2008 recession we were around and covering the entire period. Here's the 2008 stats for airlines going broke.

01/01/2008 Alpi Eagles

06/01/2008 Aero Airlines

08/01/2008 BRTJ BritishJet.com

23/01/2008 CST Coast Air

14/01/2008 FFP Prima Charter

30/01/2008 City Star Airlines

11/02/2008 VID Aviaprad Airlines

29/02/2008 Boston-Maine Airways

08/03/2008 BigSky

13/03/2008 GirJet

18/03/2008 DHI Adam Air

25/03/2008 QSC African Safari Airways

30/03/2008 Freedom Air

30/03/2008 Airclass Airways

31/03/2008 JAA Japan Asia Airways

29/04/2008 NTW Nationwide Airlines

28/04/2008 AAH Aloha Airlines

02/04/2008 AMT ATA Airlines

09/04/2008 OHK Oasis Hong Kong Airlines

27/04/2008 ESS Eos Airlines

20/04/2008 VCX Ocean Airlines

07/04/2008 SKB Skybus Airlines

05/04/2008 SYW Skyway Airlines

11/04/2008 SWX Swazi Express Airways

03/05/2008 Mihin Lanka

13/05/2008 AOL Angkor Airways

09/05/2008 EMX Euromanx

13/05/2008 FEA Far Eastern Air Transport

23/05/2008 Club Air

30/05/2008 SLR Silverjet

31/05/2008 CCP Champion Air

10/06/2008 Magnicharters

11/06/2008 Aerocondor

16/07/2008 Yeti Airlines

21/07/2008 Ankair

21/07/2008 One-Two-Go

29/07/2008 Riau Airlines

13/08/2008 GCO Gemini Air Cargo

04/08/2008 SER Aerocalifornia

05/08/2008 Avolar

05/08/2008 Nova Air

28/08/2008 OOM Zoom Airlines

28/08/2008 UKZ Zoom Airlines (UK)

09/09/2008 FUA Futura International Airways

09/09/2008 FGL Futura Gael

11/09/2008 Air Bee

12/09/2008 XLA XL Airways UK

15/09/2008 APKX Air Pack Express

15/09/2008 AeBal

17/09/2008 Dalavia Russia

06/10/2008 Galaxy Airlines (Japan)

09/10/2008 Lagunair Spain

16/10/2008 Flysur Spain

17/10/2008 LTE Spain

17/10/2008 Omskavia

17/10/2008 Interavia

17/10/2008 Tesis

17/10/2008 Vyborg Airlines

18/10/2008 Hansung Airlines

20/10/2008 Flysur

21/10/2008 Aladia (Mexico)

29/10/2008 Sterling AirwaysAirlines

31/10/2008 Air Comet (Chile)

31/10/2008 Kras Air

01/11/2008 Domodedovo Airlines

08/11/2008 Alma (Mexico)

11/11/2008 Inter Airlines (Turkey)

01/12/2008 European Aviation Aircharter

01/12/2008 Primaris Airlines

01/12/2008 Siem Reap Airways International

03/12/2008 Flightline

06/12/2008 OK Air

Rob

[WannabeBus]

Quote -Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.

That would be me. Widebody Twin Captain, mid-thirties. Resigned over a decade ago to be own boss. No regrets

[CaptainProp]

If we don’t have a substantial financial correction in the next 12-24 months, one that’s massively changing the landscape, I think recruitment will continue as air travel is set to increase substantially over coming 10-15 years.

The fact that easyJet (as it was mentioned) is showing signs of not recruiting much at the moment means nothing. For most companies recruitment is semi-seasonal and come August / September they’ll start calling people in for interviews and OCCs as training ramps up again in preparation for 2020. This pattern is true for most airlines in Europe and it’s nothing new.

Will there be more companies going under? Most certainly, but the number of commercial aircraft and passengers travelling will continue to rise.

Don’t forget that even at a moderate fleet increase of say 4-5 % per annum companies like easyJet and Ryanair are adding 15-20 aircraft. Then there are all the smaller t-p operators, regionals, bizjet and cargo operators, legacy airlines etc etc. Add retirements and people who decide to leave the business altogether and it’s pretty clear that there will be plenty of recruitment going on also in the coming years. Just my two cents.

(Added)
.....but a real pilot shortage? Not a chance I’m afraid.

CP

[BluSdUp]

CptProp
Right You are.
No real Pilot shortage!
Just shortage of Real Pilots!
Trust me, there are!
Regards
Cpt B

[KRUSTY 34]

Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.

To those of us who have done the hard yards over many years mryan, your statement makes perfect sense. I know it does to me.

The above case, although extreme IMHO, probably highlights the overarching reason for the problem. A loss of wonder, fascination​​​​​, love whatever, in the profession by a much greater percentage of the population. Especially over the last 20 years.

Realistically there’s probably not much we will be able to do about that. So if it all comes down to money, there is only one viable long term solution.

Of course that would require a paradigm shift in the value placed on those who sit up the front.

[Shrike200]

Myth.

Anybody with reasonable T&C's grounding flights due to insufficient flight deck crew? Nope....

A few entirely self-inflicted shortages don't make the case for actual shortages. We're not even at the stage of first world countries fully opening up their job market to foreigners, which would definitely happen if there was a real shortage.

Edit to add: That previously linked article is a decently thought out piece of work, making some good points. I don't recommend this career to young people nowdays since it's frankly quite horrible for family life. The idea that one partner must stay home and run the household while the pilot works at all sorts of random hours and spends half the time away from home doesn't really appeal to anybody with a brain nowdays.

[compass360]

Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.

anyone who gives up a well paying (higher paying) job in his 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at an LCD/MCDU screen counting down the miles to go ought to have HIS head examined.

To answer the original question, if I look at my T&Cs, it’s definitely a myth.

[Easyheat]

I absolutely agree with shrike and compass. Hated flying low cost 800 hrs/year, with poor t&cs. Never again. 500 hrs/year is max now. My nightmare would be if any of my kids (soon teens) told me that they have decided to become pilots. What a no brainer decision.

[The Ancient Geek]

Rather let them spend a few years hacking around the game reserves, great life for a young single CPL with plenty of variety. Flying jets up and down the same route is boring.

[physicx]

There are plenty of pilots right out of school and in GA. Back in the day all you needed was CPL 200 Hours and you would be snatched up and trained for ME/IR + type rating.
Now you need CPL/ATPL 1500 plus hours, a type rating, time on type, a university degree, pay to fly, pass psychometric etc etc the list goes on!!!!

The shortage is created by flight schools and airlines to keep up business and pay low (insurance companies too).
Laws of demand and supply: If pilot supply increases and demand remains unchanged, then it leads to lower pay.

Some of us have been struggling to survive as pilots. We made a high investment on our training with low/nil returns! While your accountant friend made a low investment and is enjoying high returns.

There is no shortage!

[cumulustratus]

The shortage is created by flight schools and airlines to keep up business and pay low (insurance companies too).
Laws of demand and supply: If pilot supply increases and demand remains unchanged, then it leads to lower pay

​​​​​​IF(!) the pilots allow the pay to go down!

Sticking together, across airlines and across countries, refusing to allow bad times in the business affect our T&Cs, is possible.

Do airlines pay less for the fuel because times are bad? Do they pay less for the aircraft? For the catering? For capex? NO! They pay the market rate!

The market rate of a pilot shouldn't be dictated in a board room, but in the intra European pilot union conferences! If the pilots bodies stick together, they dictate the market rate of their labour. Management will always attempt divide and conquer in order to drive down conditions, and way too many professional (!) pilots are far too eager to help them out. And then they b*tch and moan.

[Impress to inflate]

Found this on linkedin

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-needs-more-pilots-capucine-yeomans/?trk=eml-email_feed_ecosystem_digest_01-hero-0-null&midToken=AQGfnke0DNj7SQ&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=0WgCL2oZQqooI1

[boeingeng]

​​​​​​

The market rate of a pilot shouldn't be dictated in a board room, but in the intra European pilot union conferences! Surely the market rate of a pilot is decided in exactly the same way as everyone else - by supply and demand. If there are enough kids who dont think that loading themselves up with 50k of debt is a great idea then there will be a pilot shortage and T&C's will rise.

[iggy]

with 50k of debt

50k only? More like 300k, counting with the TR and line training. In PTF airlines there are 600 guys waiting in line with the cash ready. I don't see any shortage here.

[cumulustratus]

Surely the market rate of a pilot is decided in exactly the same way as everyone else - by supply and demand. If there are enough kids who dont think that loading themselves up with 50k of debt is a great idea then there will be a pilot shortage and T&C's will rise.

I knew someone would bite and write that. This is such a common thing to hear, especially in our community. But this is false, because it would mean that you see yourself as nothing more than a easily attainable commodity - but it isn't that simple. If the price of oil starts going down, does opec keep producing the same amount of barrels or do they adjust their output? You know the answer, and it's because they have the power to affect the market price by adjusting supply.

Its also false, because we cannot be replaced by average Joe on the street. So if the workforce in an airline disagree with T&C's, they can retract their labour, which also stops the training of their replacements (which by the way is a very slow process due to the nature of our business)

This is a process that was established in the beginning of the previous century, and there are usually very strong laws around Europe to protect the workers in that regard. It's the foundation of a healthy power balance between the provider and customer of the labour.

Personally I find that people from the UK in particular are very reluctant to accept this principle. It seems to be some odd remnant of the Thatcher era, where people seem to think that the profit of the company is the sole concern for all employees.

We're no different from people working in a mine or on a production line in a factory. We can all be replaced with cheaper versions of ourselves, it's up to us to stick together and make sure that costs more (for example by refusing to train our replacements or completely withdrawing our labour if management even try to replace us) than increasing our T&C's to a healthy level which reflects our responsibility and productivity.

Why is a medium size jet captain paid nearly twice as much ( gross, currency equivalent) in the US compared to comparable airlines in Europe? It sure isn't because the US guys fly twice as much.

[Icarus2001]

50k only? More like 300k, counting with the TR and line training.] Why would a PTF pilot pay for line training on revenue flights?

ANY decent career will require a period of study, university is not free and never was, someone always paid. In Australia now you pay later once earning over about $40k a year.

I will take my job as a pilot over a desk job any day.

I think you are overstating the cost of obtaining a licence and MECIR.

[TempoTCu]

Icarus,

While 300k might be a bit of an overstatement, 50k is also a massive understatement. I would love to know where I could log 200 hours, obtaining a CPL & MEIR in Australia for fifty grand.

[iggy]

From those 300k, around 180 are for the line training itself, not counting NOT having a salary. If there was any shortage pilots wouldn't be doing this.

I take that a CPL IR in USA must be around 100k plus lodge for a year.

[zloi]

Where do you take these numbers? EASA fATPL in the Czech Republic from 0 to 200 cost me 33k euro in 2013. Now it's a little bit more expensive, but few grands more.

[iggy]

From the guys on the right seat I fly with. I swear one of them even sold his granny's house.

[booze]

It cost me 26k eur (family loan) spread over a year and a half through various clubs and schools back in 2004-05. Did some part time jobs during, like working in a bar, gardening, flt.ops for a charter company, etc. Got a job flying in the bush down in Africa pretty much straight after qualifying, then worked my way up left and right seats of pistons, turboprops before making it to the left seat of a medium jet couple of years ago. Should work the same these days as well if one is happy to put their shiny jet syndrome apart for a short while, just my 2 cents. No offence intended.

[The Deec]

I recently applied for a job with an air taxi op near Boston flying cessna twins .I had read a story about them having to cancel flights due to a shortage of pilots . Having an Faa Cpl/Ir with some biz jet time, I sent them off my cv with the hope of coming to their rescue and landing myself a handy little number flying back and forward to marthas vineyard only to be told they werent taking on any foreign pilots, period. Ok i dont have a green card and I am a european citizen but surely if the're trying to fill a void in the market and they are "desperate" for crews they will somehow arrange sponsorship/ workpermit for the right guys. Problem solved

Pilot shortage or not, I rest my case.

[pilotchute]

Deec,
Do you have any idea how the USA immigration/work visa system operates?
To sponsor you for a Green Card would cost $15-25k and it isnt quick.

Do you even have an FAA license?

[The Deec]

Yes Faa qualified. Surely its easy to organise a work permit which gives you the right to live and work never mind a green card. A lot more companies need to provide sponsorship to pilots if there is a huge shortage in the US. Correct me if Im wrong but does a employer have to advertise a job in another country if it cant get the requirements in their own as long as the candidate is equally qualified and skilled. There was a big push years ago for truck drivers to come and work in the US, work permits and residency assured... Whats the difference ?Why cant they do the same for pilots ? Problem solved
Rest my case !

[Far Canel]

There is only really the E 3 visa for Australian residents. Not sure if it’s days are numbered

[Icarus2001]

50k only? More like 300k, counting with the TR and line training.

While 300k might be a bit of an overstatement, 50k is also a massive understatement.

Okay so here are some Australian figures, so Australian dollars.

Commercial Pilot Licence - Melbourne Flight Training (http://www.mft.edu.au/course/commercial-pilot-licence/)

PPL ~ $15,000 CPL ~ $ 33,000 Multi IFR ~ $26,000 TOTAL $74,000. Which is around USD$53,000

Add 10% for variables... Around A$80,000 or USD$ 58,000 to end up with a CPL and Multi engine instrument rating.

Now tell me, what is the cost of an arts or accounting degree at university?

https://student.unsw.edu.au/fees-student-contribution-rates

Between A$7000 and A$11,000 pa depending on the subject studied. So a three year degree is between A$21,000 and A$33,000 and a four year degree is between A$28,000 and A$44,000

One third to half the cost of pilot training. Who can train more quickly and start earning? Measured against first year salary.

I don't think it is doom and gloom at all for someone looking to become a pilot in 2019.

[TempoTCu]

Icarus, Interesting that your sums suggest a combined 3yr degree and CPL MEIR add up to $107,000(AUD) (assuming your worst case estimate for course fees) - yet the universities in Australia are charging their students close to 150k for aviation degrees.

[Icarus2001]

Are they really? Do you have a link or can you suggest a university that advertises this?

[TempoTCu]

Sure can.

UniSA require that you complete a bachelor of aviation. This is a three year course at a 'Band 2' rate of $9,359 per year. Total cost is $28,077. In addition to the Bachelor degree, the practical flying component is complete through concurrent enrolment in a Graduate Diploma in Aviation. UniSA's website states that the total cost for this component is $104,500. All up, the total cost is $132,577.

For UNSW, their aviation program states that the practical flying fees are $130,000 and that this is "in addition to the academic course fees for the Bachelor of Aviation". The academic fees are the same as UniSA (i.e. Band 2, $9,359p.a.). Therefore, the UNSW program total cost is $158,077. Admittedly, the UNSW program includes ATPL theory and exams in addition to CPL & MEIR.

[bafanguy]

While this seems to be more of a US issue, it gets kicked around enough that I'll post this article. It's the first time I've seen the media address the subject of the college degree requirement of some US legacy airlines. They don't cover this from the airline management side to get what they're thinking about it:

https://psmag.com/education/what-an-pilot-shortage-reveals-about-higher-education

[vp89]

A very interesting article about redundant requirements for becoming a pilot with major US airlines, bafanguy! I do think that European airline industry also has some redundant requirements. I will give you an example. It used to be time, when nobody needed MCC training. But then somebody said that a pilot with MCC is a better pilot. How? Better engagement with the flight and cabin crew? Let it be - fair point. Now it is a default training that every cadet buys. Then somebody invented JOC training. What is the purpose of it? To understand that jet engines are powerful? Fine, if you are going to fly jets. But if you are going to fly dash q400 for 5-8 years, what is the purpose of asking for JOC training (example of Flybe reqruitment)? And now according to EASA and Ryanair, it turns out that MCC and JOC does not make you a better pilot. So... lets introduce some APS training. Another expensive money making machine, which should make you a better pilot. Will it? Probably not. It looks just a business case to take more money from cadets and/or save the pilots job market from newcomers. The same looks to be the case with US higher education requirements for pilots.

[3Greens]

Anyone who gives up an airline captaincy in his early 30s to sit on his ### for the rest of his life staring at a computer screen ought to have his head examined.
not true, he actually quit BA to go fly in China. Guess he’s chasing the big bucks to fund his wish, which I believe was to code. Unfortunately it seems everyone wants to come up with the next must have app; and get rich quick.

[FlightDetent]

Unless his videos have been completely fake, more likely he's chasing the time off to persue his non aviation, cash cow plan.

[boofhead]

I don't see the logic. If the training is expensive that is one reason why so few pilots can afford it and is one of the prime reasons for the shortage, surely? If it was cheaper there would be more pilots available because more people would be able to afford it.
In the US there is also the requirement for a pilot wishing to fly for an airline to have an ATP with 1500 hours and a very expensive period of time in a major simulator, which all adds a lot to the cost. A youngster in school looks at this and most often decides the cost and time are way not worth it given that she will be nearly as old as Dad when she gets her first real job. Especially if she also wants a four year degree which alone will cost more than the pilot training.
In the good old days one could aspire to an airline job, at least in the Regionals, with around 800 hours which was doable; not much money waiting but there was enough to justify the cost of training. Not so any longer, even with the increase in pilot salaries it will be a long time before any new pilot will break even.

[A320LGW]

The more difficult it is for new entrants to come in the better it is for current pilots, basic supply and demand.

I ain't complaining ...

[boofhead]

The more difficult it is for new entrants to come in the better it is for current pilots, basic supply and demand.

I ain't complaining ...

That is short sighted. If there are not enough pilots then companies will shrink or go out of business, leading to a job shortage which might leave YOU out to dry.

[bafanguy]

I guess we can all relax now and consider the pilot "shortage" solved. The government is on the case:

"The Air Force and the FAA have announced a collaborative effort to counter the national aircrew shortage, May 31."

FAA Announces Partnership With Air Force | Aero-News Network (http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=297c1883-d8c2-4026-bb11-0d0bbfb8491e)

[yoko1]

There is no shortage of pilots. There is a shortage of airlines who wish to pay what a pilot is truly worth.

[A320LGW]

That is short sighted. If there are not enough pilots then companies will shrink or go out of business, leading to a job shortage which might leave YOU out to dry.

That won't happen, right before an airline calls it quits someone will come up with the crazy idea of actually training the pilots they need so bad to stay in business.

Airlines have had it too comfy cos fools like us paid for our training ... tables must turn.

[bafanguy]

There is no shortage of pilots. There is a shortage of airlines who wish to pay what a pilot is truly worth.

On a related note, here's another media example of pilot "shortage". I'd suggest this isn't a pilot shortage but a management shortage:

https://japantoday.com/category/business/budget-airline-jetstar-japan-to-cancel-70-flights-in-june-due-to-pilot-shortage

[Nick 1]

Pilot shortage ? Hal9000 will take care ...
“ Airbus Accelerates AI Ahead Of Looming Pilot Shortage
Guy Norris
As the civil aerospace industry looks increasingly to artificial intelligence (AI) to help improve safety standards, and amid the looming potential for a global pilot shortage, Airbus is stepping up research into autonomous systems and the potential for single-pilot operations.
As part of these efforts, the manufacturer has created Airbus AIGym, a platform that is being used to evaluate the use of AI and machine learning to tackle real issues across the enterprise—including autonomous systems for the flight deck. Through the initiative, Airbus is encouraging research in specific areas such as speech recognition by issuing a series of challenges that are open to companies, research laboratories, academia and individuals.
The air traffic control (ATC) speech-recognition challenge, which closed late in 2018, will be followed shortly by another aimed at devising AI systems capable of identifying and recognizing taxiway signs. The work supports the development of autonomous taxiing capability and is designed to feed into the company’s Automated Takeoff and Landing (ATTOL) demonstration program, which is planned for flight tests in the mid-2020s. The project is intended to leverage computer vision technologies and techniques to enable an aircraft to navigate and detect obstacles during taxi, takeoff, approach and landing.
“How do we reduce the workload on pilots as airspace becomes more congested? How do we continuously improve safety and cope with the envisioned shortage of pilots?” asks Airbus Chief Technology Officer Grazia Vittadini. “Today we have 200,000 type-rated commercial pilots. If we apply market projections, we will have around 50,000 aircraft in service after 2037. That means we will need 600,000 pilots over the next 20 years.”
The threat of an industry-wide pilot shortage is “pushing us toward automated systems with the alternate ambition to go for autonomy powered by artificial intelligence,” says Vittadini. “That’s a challenge not to be underestimated, especially for certification. The certification of systems based on nondeterministic inputs is not trivial. It is a page of aviation we have not yet written, but we are starting to write it now with partners and regulators,” she explains.
Airbus believes areas such as communications and navigation represent early potential opportunities for AI to support or supplement current cockpit tasks. The recently concluded contest to develop ATC speech recognition, for example, focused on areas such as standard audio transcription and call-sign extraction and produced “tangible results” from 25 finalists, says Vittadini. “But it is just the beginning, and we are about to launch another challenge along those lines to identify and recognize taxiway signs,” she notes.
In a related area, Airbus Defense and Space already is working with mobility provider ZF Friedrichshafen to enhance an autonomous system for self-driving cars and self-positioning vehicles using ground-control points calculated using Airbus-derived satellite data. For the work in Germany, the positioning information is being combined with lidar and radar data provided by ZF sensors.
Autonomous sense-and-avoid system technology for ATTOL is being developed by Wayfinder, a project spun out of the Silicon Valley-based Airbus A3 team working on the Vahana electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing demonstrator. “Wayfinder is developing machine learning and one of the bricks of the more automated and autonomous systems work for ATTOL,” says Vittadini.
“We plan to solve the most challenging problems in developing scalable, certifiable autonomy systems to power self-piloted aircraft applications throughout Airbus, from small urban air taxis like Vahana to large commercial airplanes,” Wayfinder's director of engineering, Alex Naiman, says in a recent blog post.
Describing the individual challenge areas as technology “bricks” that will provide the foundation for future demonstrations and development, Vittadini says that beyond the ATTOL program lies the company’s longer-term ambition to create a reduced-crew aircraft and, ultimately, a fully autonomous aircraft. But she cautions that it will take a long time to reach these targets.
“Let’s not forget it took us 60 years to go from four-crew cockpits to two-crew, so we won’t get there anytime soon,” Vittadini notes. “But yes, it is an ambition and we have planned the steps. So we will go from ATTOL to reduced-crew operations in which we can have single-pilot operations in certain phases of flight such as during cruise.”
The initiative is supported by work on a “Disruptive Cockpit” simulator at the company’s Toulouse headquarters. Developed as part of Europe’s Clean Sky 2 research program, the project is focused on demonstrating new functions, computing resources and communications. These include cockpit procedure automation, pilot-monitoring systems such as eye-tracking, head-worn displays, ground collision avoidance, new navigation sensors, voice-recognition systems for communications with ATC and airline operations, multimodal integration for flight crew interfaces, tactile head-mounted instruments and image-based landing systems.
“The flight deck is accessible; we are testing it with our own test pilots and customers. It’s a journey and a long journey, but safety is first, and we will take it step by step,” Vittadini adds. “We are already testing different bricks of a possible single-pilot operation in our enhanced multicrew cockpit where we study what it would mean in cruise to have the copilot resting in his or her seat and an active captain in the left seat. So we are studying several potential combinations of solutions “

[cumulustratus]

That is short sighted. If there are not enough pilots then companies will shrink or go out of business, leading to a job shortage which might leave YOU out to dry.

So in your scenario:

Airline Middle Manager: "Big Boss CEO, we are in trouble! We have a fleet of 200 aircraft, but only pilots to cover 150 of them!"

Big Boss CEO: "That's unfortunate! Let's fire 33% of the workforce and get rid of 100 aircraft. Solved!" *mike drop gesture*

Airline Middle Manager: *teary eyed slow clap*

Anyone else see the flaw in this reasoning?

[TFE731]

That won't happen, right before an airline calls it quits someone will come up with the crazy idea of actually training the pilots they need so bad to stay in business.

Airlines have had it too comfy cos fools like us paid for our training ... tables must turn.

I doubt it. Right before the airline calls quits it will be way too late to start a pilot training program.

[Harley Quinn]

Luckily Icelandair are releasing a bunch of guys, something to do with grounded 737s.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Pilot shortage ? Hal9000 will take care ...
, Vittadini says that beyond the ATTOL program lies the company’s longer-term ambition to create a reduced-crew aircraft and, ultimately, a fully autonomous aircraft. But she cautions that it will take a long time to reach these targets.
“Let’s not forget it took us 60 years to go from four-crew cockpits to two-crew, so we won’t get there anytime soon,” Vittadini notes. “But yes, it is an ambition and we have planned the steps. So we will go from ATTOL to reduced-crew operations in which we can have single-pilot operations in certain phases of flight such as during cruise.”
The initiative is supported by work on a “Disruptive Cockpit” simulator at the company’s Toulouse headquarters. Developed as part of Europe’s Clean Sky 2 research program, the project is focused on demonstrating new functions, computing resources and communications. These include cockpit procedure automation, pilot-monitoring systems such as eye-tracking, head-worn displays, ground collision avoidance, new navigation sensors, voice-recognition systems for communications with ATC and airline operations, multimodal integration for flight crew interfaces, tactile head-mounted instruments and image-based landing systems.
“The flight deck is accessible; we are testing it with our own test pilots and customers. It’s a journey and a long journey, but safety is first, and we will take it step by step,” Vittadini adds. “We are already testing different bricks of a possible single-pilot operation in our enhanced multicrew cockpit where we study what it would mean in cruise to have the copilot resting in his or her seat and an active captain in the left seat. So we are studying several potential combinations of solutions “

The interesting question is that as this thinking becomes more widely diffused and talked about across the industry, will it influence the decision to take the high degree of financial risk to undertake training with the fear that HAL will be coming to take your future job or your pay?

The industry is put in a bind by this type of research, it may actually exacerbate the problem by generating a self fulfilling prophecy. It's not hard to find examples where technology has had a significant determent to employment and renumeration (Uber and Lyft has decimating the global Taxi industry). As software moves up the "human stack" and eats it, humans may choose not to play.

[White Knight]

where we study what it would mean in cruise to have the copilot resting in his or her seat and an active captain in the left seat. So we are studying several potential combinations of solutions “

Well, B*gger Me. We do that already! It’s called ‘controlled rest’🙄🙄

Amazingly sometimes the Captain rests in his or her seat and there is an active FO or Captain in the right seat!!!!!!!!

[bafanguy]

Most all of the articles about the impending shortage just restate the same info. Here's the latest example:

https://aviationvoice.com/pilot-hungry-airlines-struggle-with-global-pilot-shortage-201906101447/

[rigpiggy]

Yet very few articles cover the financial and human costs to being a pilot 42k yr for a 1st yr mainline. Piffle, i am in corporate now and loving it. Last year i was away probably 100 days and making the same as a 10 yr regional captain.

[A320LGW]

Most all of the articles about the impending shortage just restate the same info. Here's the latest example:

https://aviationvoice.com/pilot-hungry-airlines-struggle-with-global-pilot-shortage-201906101447/

The aviation voice is owned by the aviasolutions group. The aviasolutions group also own BAA flight academy. See where this is going?

The same "publication" (put in quotation marks because it is a charade masquerading as a professional magazine) also ranked BAA as the 3rd best and largest school in Europe and subsequently the world ... how surprising.

[Rated De]

The aviation voice is owned by the aviasolutions group. The aviasolutions group also own BAA flight academy. See where this is going?

The same "publication" (put in quotation marks because it is a charade masquerading as a professional magazine) also ranked BAA as the 3rd best and largest school in Europe and subsequently the world ... how surprising.

Well done.

Nothing more important than checking source and motivation.

[737crew]

Totally crap. Projections and surveys only show what Airbus and Boeing want to show. So many pilots unemployed at the moment. Many of them with experience on jet. It is totally sufficient to keep the rates for new pilots adjusted for short term demands and older pilots that retire.

[YRP]

One data point: there is an instructor shortage at flight schools in Canada, to the point that they don't have enough to do ab initio training. Instructors are getting hired up by the likes of Jazz.

[Global_Global]

So many pilots unemployed at the moment. Many of them with experience on jet. Interesting.... The only people we find are people that are rejected for a reason or have been rejected by us.. We had to support an airline with crew and only got people with medical issues, "interesting" CV's, crap IFR skills in the sim, non existent CRM skills, people who lied about their hours, people flown with certain eastern european P2F airlines who were needed more untraining than training, etc... Can you please tell me where these "MANY" are hiding? :8

If you are unemployed in the current market there is generally a reason for it... Either do something about it or maybe start another career.. If you can't find a job now you will definitely not find a job when the next recession hits. Sorry :(

[CaptainProp]

If you are unemployed in the current market there is generally a reason for it... Either do something about it or maybe start another career.. If you can't find a job now you will definitely not find a job when the next recession hits. Sorry :(

Hit the nail on the head.

CP

[bafanguy]

But its impossible to understand how the airlines choose who they call and when. For most getting the call was harder to achieve than passing the actual assessment.

KT,

Yes, this is apparently a universal lament. I can't explain what appears to be irrational except to guess that there must still be pervasive subjectivity in this process despite all the claims that infallible HR "science" has been applied at every step.

[migg48]

I retired recently from an air carrier. I am flying, part time, in a CJ4 and a King Air. I am offered jobs every week, as are most of my friends. Perhaps I am in an unusually busy market (SoCal), but I’m telling you, pilots, including young pilots, are moving up.

[Rated De]

That will take the company "on the way to possibly one day achieve the single-pilot operation target we are aiming at," she told CNBC at the Innovfest Unbound conference in Singapore.

Possibly, one day, maybe having consulted all the relevant stakeholders, circled the wagons, pushed the envelope, built the knowledge base, provided directional leadership...

All spin, helping to soothe the increasingly frayed nerves of HR/IR 'managers' in airlines the world over, as the reality of a pilot shortage means the decades long IR games relied upon no longer work.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/airbus-is-pushing-ahead-in-tech-as-it-aims-for-single-pilot-planes-says-cto/ar-AADx30d

[KT1988]

@Global_Global: May I ask what is the definition of ""interesting" CV's" because all the other weak spots were obvious but I wondered what is an "interesting CV" that is reviewed as bad ? Also do airline employers wish only a CV with stuff related to flying or do they wish the whole story including schools, university, jobs before aviation etc. ?

[Aso]

""interesting" CV's" Where do I start? OK: Lay outs that are from the time DOS and matrix printers where top of the bill, data not matching stories, Medicals that were not up to date, schools that did not exist (!), people fired and with a negative reference, people with level 6 from France and Italy that could not type a readable cover letter in basic English, people that worked for 3 airlines in 7 to 8 months, people with hours not matching age, people that did not put anything about their hours on their aviation CV and the best one the CV that was 50% covered with a photo of a Tom Cruise look a like with 4 bars on his shoulders and only 250 hours on his CV :p

But again: if you don't have a job in the current market go out and spend some money on one of the interview training companies and / or make sure you stay current on your basic flying skills.. And maybe accept that you are not hired for a reason and stop blaming "the industry".. :cool: The fact that you past some exams doesnt mean you are "the right stuff" the airlines are looking for. Even in a market with ever lowering standards..:ouch:

[misd-agin]

Interview with log book review. "These the original logbooks? Accurate times?" etc, etc. Candidate says yes. Interviewer - that's interesting - the 'original logbooks' were produced years after you starting logging 'real' time in them.

In the U.S., at the major airline level, the majority want ALL jobs after college. One major airline wants ALL jobs starting in high school. ALL jobs - flying or not flying related. As one candidate said "I didn't put it down because it was just a restaurant job during college." "What did you do there? For how long?" "I was the manager for the last two years." Wait a minute, you're 21-22 yrs old and you're the MANAGER of a large national chain restaurant in college?!?!!? That's impressive. No, it has nothing to do with flying but it shows a lot about drive, focus, maturity, etc, etc, at a young age.

While not a 'job' I recommended one candidate put down ALL his college activities down. It explained why he switched colleges and took longer to graduate - Div III football player. Home sick and transferred to a community college (poor and couldn't afford college). Worked at a local job. Got a Div I baseball offer. Play the first year as a walk on, if he's successful there'd be a scholarship the next year. So he scrambled to find the money....played, and before the next season the coach said "uh....about that scholarship....", so back to local community college he went. Eventually got his degree after he started flying. He had drive and didn't have much support ($$$) trying to pursue his goals. It's impressive talking to people who had a hard path to achieve their goals.

[av8sean]

North America there is a shortage. Asia is hit and miss. EU not.

This is partly due to the stronger economy in North America and Asia versus Europe, and the employment culture. It's absolutely pathetic that European pilots and citizens allow pilots to work under subcontracts from Ireland, self employment, etc. The American unions learned their lessons from subcontracting to regional airlines after 9/11 but it was never to the extreme you see in Europe now. The constant churn of bogus work contracts will continue to undermine the job market.

In Asia, they are limited by the experience level of the current pilot workforce. This will eventually work itself out, and it's probably an amazing time to be a millennial pilot in Asia. Airlines in East Asia who can afford to send students to North America to training will be fine, Southeast Asian airlines can always get expat captains and rich locals who's parents finance their training.

The North America market is still the strongest. Retirement numbers, union rules, and FAA limits for commerical pilots will keep pay going higher. We are already at the point where a CRJ captain in North America makes more than a 787 LCC pilot in Europe. And with more days off.

[Aso]

EU not

Err let's rephrase that: shortage the biggest in both US and Asia. In Europe there is a shortage but just smaller... All the good guys and girls are gone and we are now debating how low we want our standards to go.. :ouch: That is the signal of a shortage to me :8

[737crew]

And shortage means lack of good experienced pilots. Most young cadets lack the necessary skills required to command an aircraft.
Training is getting cheaper (see east European flight schools) but at the same time more extra modules like APS MCC, JOT or even self sponsored type ratings are required to land the first job. What the industry basically needs is a further consolidation. Then ticket prices get higher, salaries will increase and in the end the training will improve and will be provided in full by the employer again. What can be expected if tickets are still available for 10 bucks? Nothing! We have one of the most demanding and specialized jobs in the world and are paid less than a cab driver. I know a pizza chef who gets double the amount that my former coworkers get. And we're all captains. Sad but true. Think about that

[Meester proach]

North America there is a shortage. Asia is hit and miss. EU not.

This is partly due to the stronger economy in North America and Asia versus Europe, and the employment culture. It's absolutely pathetic that European pilots and citizens allow pilots to work under subcontracts from Ireland, self employment, etc. The American unions learned their lessons from subcontracting to regional airlines after 9/11 but it was never to the extreme you see in Europe now. The constant churn of bogus work contracts will continue to undermine the job market.

In Asia, they are limited by the experience level of the current pilot workforce. This will eventually work itself out, and it's probably an amazing time to be a millennial pilot in Asia. Airlines in East Asia who can afford to send students to North America to training will be fine, Southeast Asian airlines can always get expat captains and rich locals who's parents finance their training.

The North America market is still the strongest. Retirement numbers, union rules, and FAA limits for commerical pilots will keep pay going higher. We are already at the point where a CRJ captain in North America makes more than a 787 LCC pilot in Europe. And with more days off.


Really, so American regional pilots are not sleeping in crewrooms anymore because the pay is so bad ? I’d be interested to know what your mythical CRJ captain makes

[bafanguy]

I’d be interested to know what your mythical CRJ captain makes

US regional captain pay listed here:

https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/regional

[hans brinker]

Really, so American regional pilots are not sleeping in crewrooms anymore because the pay is so bad ? I’d be interested to know what your mythical CRJ captain makes

Senior captain at republic will easily make $150K, third year around $90K. Seen plenty of posts talking about making less than €10K/month in the EU on long haul as PIC.

[CaptainProp]

Yes but direct entry captains, or newly upgraded captains, in a US regional does not make that sort of money the first few years. A long haul captain with Virgin, BA, KLM, Air France, LH, Virgin, Swiss etc etc makes a lot more than €10k / month. The ones making €10K / month are possibly more like Norwegian long haul or HiFly.

CP

[hans brinker]

Yes but direct entry captains, or newly upgraded captains, in a US regional does not make that sort of money the first few years. A long haul captain with Virgin, BA, KLM, Air France, LH, Virgin, Swiss etc etc makes a lot more than €10k / month. The ones making €10K / month are possibly more like Norwegian long haul or HiFly.

CP




North America there is a shortage. Asia is hit and miss. EU not.

The North America market is still the strongest. Retirement numbers, union rules, and FAA limits for commerical pilots will keep pay going higher. We are already at the point where a CRJ captain in North America makes more than a 787 LCC pilot in Europe. And with more days off.

​​​​​​​fillerfiller

[vp89]

Dear All,

Interesting discussion going on about the pilot shortage and their salaries. Just to add some fuel to the fire here is a quick observation: Eurowings, Aerlingus, LOT, even Ryanair have stopped their recruitments recently, while WizzAir and a bunch of other airlines (interestingly, all European) are reducing pace of recruitment. Do they predict approaching another financial crisis? Is it lack of passenger numbers growth at Europe? Is the pilot market so overloaded that the companies simply form a non-ending database of available pilots and call them whenever they are needed? It is a very interesting situation now in Europe...

Best regards,
vp89

[paul_v1]

Dear All,

Interesting discussion going on about the pilot shortage and their salaries. Just to add some fuel to the fire here is a quick observation: Eurowings, Aerlingus, LOT, even Ryanair have stopped their recruitments recently, while WizzAir and a bunch of other airlines (interestingly, all European) are reducing pace of recruitment. Do they predict approaching another financial crisis? Is it lack of passenger numbers growth at Europe? Is the pilot market so overloaded that the companies simply form a non-ending database of available pilots and call them whenever they are needed? It is a very interesting situation now in Europe...

Best regards,
vp89

Its just the end of the summer, every year the same. I saw you mentioned wizz, well wizz is again on PIlot open days in Greece, Romania, UK, Dubai etc.

[Ian W]

Dear All,

Interesting discussion going on about the pilot shortage and their salaries. Just to add some fuel to the fire here is a quick observation: Eurowings, Aerlingus, LOT, even Ryanair have stopped their recruitments recently, while WizzAir and a bunch of other airlines (interestingly, all European) are reducing pace of recruitment. Do they predict approaching another financial crisis? Is it lack of passenger numbers growth at Europe? Is the pilot market so overloaded that the companies simply form a non-ending database of available pilots and call them whenever they are needed? It is a very interesting situation now in Europe...

Best regards,
vp89

Or has the internal and external market suddenly been flooded with Max8 crews who are taking up all the slack for the time being?

[GrandPrix]

Employers that pay poorly = shortage.
Employers that pay well = surplus.

[3MTA3]

To add to GrandPrix's comment:

Pilots: shortage
Panel operators : surplus

[MD83FO]

anyone foresee US Mayors hiring DECs ?

[bafanguy]

anyone foresee US Mayors hiring DECs ?

Nope. Not at a major if the pilots have a union contract. The regionals are different animals even with a union contract.

[hans brinker]

Nope. Not at a major if the pilots have a union contract. The regionals are different animals even with a union contract.
Actually, the regionals are exactly the same. The only reason there is DEC at the regionals is lack of experienced FOs.

[bafanguy]

Actually, the regionals are exactly the same.

The fact that regionals take DECs, for whatever reason, is what makes them different from the "majors" that MD83FO asked about. It may be that after application of seniority to available openings at a major, captain spots could go pretty far down the list but they won't be DECs in the strictest sense. That was my inartfully-made point.

I don't expect to ever see ads for DECs at UAL, AA, DL, SWA, UPS, FedEX, JB, Spirit or Frontier.

[Easyheat]

It is all about T&Cs. You will never see any legacy in Europe either looking for DECs. A high seniority is somehow the best indication, that the working conditions offered are fair, hence a low seniority the opposite.

[misd-agin]

anyone foresee US Mayors hiring DECs ?

At the majors? No. At the regionals? Possibly. You need 1000 hrs Part 121 time to upgrade to Captain. Lots of FO's don't have the required 1,000 hrs so the companies will take junior FO"s with 1,000 hrs of 121 time and upgrade them out of seniority. If the company still doesn't have enough FO's with 1,000 hrs of 121 time to meet the upgrade requirement they'll hire DECS. The DECS will be stuck on the bottom of the Captains list as the FO's eventually get 1,000 hrs 121 time and upgrade.

[hans brinker]

The fact that regionals take DECs, for whatever reason, is what makes them different from the "majors" that MD83FO asked about. It may be that after application of seniority to available openings at a major, captain spots could go pretty far down the list but they won't be DECs in the strictest sense. That was my inartfully-made point.

I don't expect to ever see ads for DECs at UAL, AA, DL, SWA, UPS, FedEX, JB, Spirit or Frontier.

They have had 4 month captains at DL, and 8 month captains at Fedex. The difference between the US and (most of) the rest is how much seniority affects QOL. I worked in the EU before I came to the US, I had no say in my schedule, was on a salary, and vacation wasn't assigned according to seniority. Those guys at Fedex and DL that took the early will be at the bottom of the reserve list, flying every x-mas and 4th of july for years. Just wanted to emphasize how things are different here, not trying to argue with you. :)

[bafanguy]

Just wanted to emphasize how things are different here, not trying to argue with you. :)

No sweat...didn't think you were.

[Oddball77]

I’m currently flying an A320, this is what I’ve seen so far. The guys who have screwed things for us are P2F guys, fact is any employer would rather hire a guy with 500 hrs and current on type than the Non TR guy who might actually be a better pilot.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Airline management don't want "better" pilots because better pilots will cost more, they will strive to set WAWCON at just enough to get pilots who meet the minimum standard. Ryanair has set the bar for all other airline execs in this area.

[beachbumflyer]

"The guys that screwed things up for us were P2F guys"

That was obvious a few years ago, and what was going to happen. Nobody did a thing about it. Now a lot of pilots are facing the consequences.
Now it's very hard to fix that.

[Oddball77]

The company I'm working for now is full of p2f drivers, some of whom are quite proud to tell you in the flight deck that they paid for their 320 ratings plus 50k Euro for 500 hrs of 'line training'. The sad reality is in the EU, if you want to make it anywhere in this industry or fast-track your career onto a jet, you better have very deep pockets.

[bafanguy]

U.S.-centric podcast about the "shortage". Mildly interesting if you've got 40 minutes to listen:

https://www.flight-economics.com/financial-consequences-airlines-listen-latest-pilot-shortage-podcast

[neilki]

The fact that regionals take DECs, for whatever reason, is what makes them different from the "majors" that MD83FO asked about. It may be that after application of seniority to available openings at a major, captain spots could go pretty far down the list but they won't be DECs in the strictest sense. That was my inartfully-made point.

I don't expect to ever see ads for DECs at UAL, AA, DL, SWA, UPS, FedEX, JB, Spirit or Frontier.
Agreed! (and I'm at one of them..)
@Meester proach $150k for a Regional CA is absolutely achievable. Living in base as a Lineholder in your first or second year in the seat.

[787PIC]

I’ve been flying commercially for about 53 years. (40 years airlines and 13 years of private jets after retirement.)
l’ve been hearing about this BS for all those years. Even when airlines were furloughing us every couple of years!
l do however think there is finally a shortage of “STUPID” pilots. Meaning pilots whom used to spend a couple of hundred thousands of Dollars to get a job that pays $20k/yr. Or someone like me who actually flew for $2,000/ mo. as a 727 Captain during furlough from a major airline, because I was too stupid and lazy to go find a real job. Or as the “honey bucket” dumper said “leave aviation?” 😎
Currently the major airlines are spreading this false rumor so they can raise the retirement age one more time. And the commuter carriers are crying Crocodile tears, so the FAA drops the 1,500 hour requirement, in order for them to go back paying their pilots $20K/yr. again!

[Meester proach]

It is all about T&Cs. You will never see any legacy in Europe either looking for DECs. A high seniority is somehow the best indication, that the working conditions offered are fair, hence a low seniority the opposite.


Although that’s exactly what Tui are doing for the ex TC folk, albeit a summer only contract

[bafanguy]

On the corporate side of the "shortage":

"Creative employers are using incentives to help hold on to aviation professionals."

But are they really ?

https://nbaa.org/news/business-aviation-insider/benefits-retention-tools/

[silverstrata]

Looks like Boeing intends recruiting hundreds of 737 drivers, to deliver all these grounded Maxes.

Anyone know who is doing the recruiting?

https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-temporary-workers-737-max-grounding-faa-2019-8?r=US&IR=T

Silver

[bafanguy]

Anyone know who is doing the recruiting?

The article says this about hires:

The workers will "assist and support 737 MAX storage and pre-delivery."

I didn't see a specific mention of pilots being hired to deliver released airplanes. But if Boeing were to make deliveries, they'd need a bunch of pilots. Maybe the airlines buying the stored airplanes would send their own pilots to pick them up ?

The article says to find jobs here. I didn't fizz around to see what specific jobs were listed, if any:

https://jobs.boeing.com/

[kiwi grey]

presumably every airframe will require at least one Boeing / FAA test flight before being delivered, they might need a few extra drivers for that?

[OMAAbound]

Personally the market is short of ‘experienced’ pilots, but the other question is ‘what is an experienced pilot?’

At my current outfit, we have 2 lines of recruitment, which is DEFO 3,000hrs+ or a cadet. There are a few who come DEC, like myself, but this is rare within the industry now.

The other aspect of this is the region in the world, each region is different, Asia, for example is forever recruiting and looking for ‘experienced’ pilots..

So it brings me back to my initial point, someone define to me what an ‘experienced’ pilot is!

OMAA

[Spooky 2]

Looks like Boeing intends recruiting hundreds of 737 drivers, to deliver all these grounded Maxes.

Anyone know who is doing the recruiting?

https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-temporary-workers-737-max-grounding-faa-2019-8?r=US&IR=T

Silver


Silver, you might start by checking CCL Aviation as they do a lot contract work for Boeing. Personally I'm suspect of this report as Boeing has plenty of pilots for this short term problem IMO.