Magnetic change?

[testpanel]

Just found this (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1).
Apparently its changing faster.
What to expect?

[Airbubba]

What to expect?

Someone will figure out a way to tax it...

[Herod]

Someone will figure out a way to tax it... Wasn't that Edison?

[Herod]

Polarity switch on its way? Not due...but..

[KiloB]

If there is a polarity shift, does it become West Anglia?

[Jonty]

Polarity switch on its way? Not due...but..

its overdue isn’t it?

[The Ancient Geek]

Some runways will need to be renumbered but VORs will not change and will be confusing.

[Dan_Brown]

This reminds me of a route we flew years ago, overflying Sudan, east/west.. Somewhere between 100 and 200nm west of Khartoum, the standby compass (float type) would give a pronounced dip, in the direction expected, for a duration of about 5mins. IIRC.

All sorts of theories of course amongst the crew(s). but nothing convincing for me, except it had to have been external influence.

[DaveReidUK]

Some runways will need to be renumbered but VORs will not change and will be confusing.

What makes you think VOR radials won't change?

[The Ancient Geek]

The orientation of VOR antennas is fixed at the time of installation and cannot be changed so the radials refer to the magnetic north which existed when installed.
Note that this refers to the LOCAL magnetic field which may or may not be significantly changed by the magnetic pole wandering as described in the article.

[DaveReidUK]

The orientation of VOR antennas is fixed at the time of installation and cannot be changed so the radials refer to the magnetic north which existed when installed.
Note that this refers to the LOCAL magnetic field which may or may not be significantly changed by the magnetic pole wandering as described in the article.

I don't think that's correct. Here's an example of VOR radials that have changed in line with shifted magnetic declination:


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/970x425/epm_det_ef17780aa4ac0b46ab8bcea4aa209b41f251672e.jpg

[KiloB]

Scientists are not just talking about an increasing Variation Drift. Talk is of a sudden 180 deg shift.
It has happened in the past.

[safelife]

Why don't we switch to true north navigation, just publish all as true, zero all variation databases in the IRS an be done with it!

[Capt Fathom]

Scientists are not just talking about an increasing Variation Drift. Talk is of a sudden 180 deg shift.
It has happened in the past.
It has? When?

[DaveReidUK]

It has? When?

Most recently, about 780,000 years ago.

I don't think that one caused any problem for pilots. :O

Brunhes–Matuyama reversal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunhes%E2%80%93Matuyama_reversal)

[Asturias56]

Short term - change in compass declination, repainting work etc

medium term - gradual decline in field strength and more variability

long term - flip - but that may take 500 years - nothing to much to worry about - its happened lots of times since Homo sap. started

[eglnyt]

The orientation of VOR antennas is fixed at the time of installation and cannot be changed so the radials refer to the magnetic north which existed when installed.
Note that this refers to the LOCAL magnetic field which may or may not be significantly changed by the magnetic pole wandering as described in the article.

Not the case. All VORs can be adjusted. More modern versions with just the tweak of a screwdriver or the press of a few keys on a laptop, older ones sometimes required large spanners and a hammer. The practice in the UK and most states is to adjust them during flight inspection to minimise the predicted difference over the period to the next expected flight inspection. For DVOR that is 5 years in the UK.

[andrasz]

North and South is a Geographical term, referring to the two poles of the earth's rotational axis. In layman's terms, the North is to the left when facing in the direction of the Earth's rotation, and South is to the right. The magnetic poles have simply been named in their relation to the geographical poles. Should the polarity reverse all that needs to be changed is the naming convention, from that moment onwards the former magnetic South becomes North and vica versa, and everything is back to normal.

[fox niner]

A pole reversal, or a N/S polarity change, takes a few centuries to stabilize. That is pretty confusing I reckon.

[Alpine Flyer]

Avionics-wise we should be able to switch to true north by now but wasn't there something about the magnetic field weakening in conjunction with a flip, thus removing the protection against space radiation for some time....

[GordonR_Cape]

The article in the original post implies that they are able to accurately model the expected changes for the next 5 years. The rate of change is increasing, but it is still relatively predictable. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the demise of the earth's magnetic field are greatly exaggerated.

[Bleve]

The biggest issue during pole reversal will be increased exposure to solar radiation. With the magnetic poles currently near the North / South geographic poles, the magnetic field directs solar radiation towards N/S geographic poles. This is what 'feeds' the Aurora's. This is also what protects our equatorial and mid-latitudes from solar radiation. During a reversal the magnetic field strength will weaken and the direction will become variable (hence the increasing fluctuation of magnetic variation). This means that our equatorial and mid-latitude regions (where most of us live) will be more exposed to solar radiation. The significance of this is unknown and subject to debate.

[compressor stall]

It has? When?

many many times. Easy proven where there is continental sea floor spreading in a volcanic place like Iceland. When the lava cools it aligns with the earth’s polarity. Then that lava slowly moves away from the rift and new cooling lava takes its place. You get a neat timeline of flip flops. Older stuff requires more complex dating.

[IBMJunkman]

Maybe birds got confused?

Most recently, about 780,000 years ago.

I don't think that one caused any problem for pilots. :O

Brunhes–Matuyama reversal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunhes%E2%80%93Matuyama_reversal)

[pattern_is_full]

Shouldn't affect GPS/IRU navigation, except for updating databases to "conform" to magnetic navigation where needed. Shouldn't affect GPS satellite orbits - those are based on gravity (and maybe solar wind), not magnetism.

The magnetic poles and declination lines are always squirming around - in this case just faster than predicted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_declination#/media/File:Earth_Magnetic_Field_Declination_from_1590_to_1990.gif

And - yes - VORs can be, and are, updated as needed.

[Maoraigh1]

From Wikipedia:
"A brief complete reversal, known as the Laschamp event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laschamp_event), occurred only 41,000 years ago during the last glacial period (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_glacial_period). That reversal lasted only about 440 years with the actual change of polarity lasting around 250 years. During this change the strength of the magnetic field weakened to 5% of its present strength."
Does any electrical equipment depend on the Earth's field at startup?

[c_coder]

From Wikipedia:Does any electrical equipment depend on the Earth's field at startup?Nothing that I can think of. But with the field down to 5%, low Earth Orbit would be much less habitable than it is now. As long as we can survive radiation on the ground, we should be fine. If the Van Allen belts collapse (partly or fully) higher orbits might actually become safer to use.

[2dPilot]

From Wikipedia:
Does any electrical equipment depend on the Earth's field at startup?

Quite a few items may be affected to some degree by the reduced magnetic field strength. Many phones & tablets for example when using navigation type apps can already get confused by weak/distorted fields (as inside a car)
and require the device to be 'waved' in a figure-of-eight motion a few times to properly orientate. Some Drones too (arguably a good thing), need turning by hand in three axis's to align the field.

More importantly, a reduced magnetic field will eliminate the protection from cosmic rays and other space radiation, potentially killing any or everything from power grids to frying sensitive micro-electronics & radio transmission interference. And heavens knows what to biological systems.

Overall, a reversal - more accurately, the period of reversal change - is definitely not a good thing.

[aterpster]

Most recently, about 780,000 years ago.

I don't think that one caused any problem for pilots. :O

May have missed with the compass in Fred Flintstone's car, though.

[normanton]

Just follow the magenta line and you will have no problems.

[Blackfriar]

Short term - change in compass declination, repainting work etc

medium term - gradual decline in field strength and more variability

long term - flip - but that may take 500 years - nothing to much to worry about - its happened lots of times since Homo sap. started

Yes, no worries, except civilisation as we know it will disappear.

[Asturias56]

One thing no-one is certain about and that's the effect of a low magnetic field during the process of the flip on the ionosphere - it might lead to more (or less) aurora, solar rays reaching sea level, magnetic storms, a significant effect on long range radio transmission etc etc

I guess if it doesn't affect the GPS Satellites etc we can get through

[Asturias56]

Yes, no worries, except civilisation as we know it will disappear.

I thought it has - well according to people on Jet Blast............. ;)

[woodpecker]

I blame it all on the removal of the gasometer on Heathrow's rwy 23L

[DeanoP]

The movement of the North Magnetic Pole is dealt with by applying a correction, Magnetic Variation to the magnetic compass. We have been doing this, successfully, from the early days of air navigation and nothing has changed except the rate of change. Published values of Variation over the earth's surface will have to be updated more often, this includes VOR radials.

[Asturias56]

I blame it all on the removal of the gasometer on Heathrow's rwy 23L
:p - better tell the academics

[andrasz]

Quite a few items may be affected to some degree by the reduced magnetic field strength. Many phones & tablets for example when using navigation type apps can already get confused by weak/distorted fields (as inside a car).
Incorrect. These gadgets rely on a GPS satelite signal (which may get blocked inside a car / building) and have nothing to to with Earth's magnetic field. Other than magnetic compasses (and systems that rely on a derived magnetic compass signal, but these are all adjustable to allow for a changing deviation), there is nothing we use today that is affected.

[Smooth Airperator]

Would you believe me if I told you that last night's dream consisted of me staring at a wonky compass, I then awake to stumble on this thread.

[Chu Chu]

Most phones do have magnetic sensors. I know because my cheap tablet doesn't have one; the compass apps I download won't work. GPS navigation still works.

[aterpster]

Most phones do have magnetic sensors. I know because my cheap tablet doesn't have one; the compass apps I download won't work. GPS navigation still works.
Most tablets don't have GPS unless they have the cellular option.

[Gipsy Queen]

I thought it has - well according to people on Jet Blast............. ;)

Oh gawd - I came here to avoid the seismic disturbance of Jet Blast!

[ve3id]

May have missed with the compass in Fred Flintstone's car, though.
Compass? Didn't he just throw up an albatross to see which way was North in the Summer and South in the winter?