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Nervous SLF
25th Nov 2018, 22:58
So do the Putin fan club on here ( JB ) still think he isn't a nasty person?

Ukraine says Russia has opened fire on its ships in the Black Sea and captured three vessels.
Two sailors have been wounded after two artillery boats were hit in the strikes, the Ukrainian navy
said. Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko has called an emergency session of his war cabinet
after a day of rising tensions off the coast of Crimea.
A statement from Ukraine's ambassador to the UK said Russian special forces had captured three ships
in an "act of aggression"."According to the Ukrainian navy, Russia opened fire at small-sized 'Berdiansk'
and 'Nikopol' armoured artillery boats," the statement said."The 'Yany Kapu' tugboat also lost ability to
move following the Russian assault.
"Two Ukrainian crew members have been wounded. Russian special forces have captured all three Ukrainian ships."

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/russia-opens-fire-on-ukrainian-ships-and-captures-three-vessels/ar-BBQ4PlP

chevvron
25th Nov 2018, 23:32
That's classed as an act of piracy isn't it? Same as Somalian pirates capturing ships in the Indian Ocean

Skipname
26th Nov 2018, 00:07
Here to play the devil's advocate.

Nervous SLF - your post seems rather one sided. For an unbiased report you should have included claims made by the Russians as well and let the reader make his/her own viewpoint instead of pushing your own opinion on them.

Russia claims that the Ukrainian navy boats entered their territorial waters after repeatedly being warned not to do it. I do not know if Ukraine recognises Russia's claim aver the area as their territorial waters but the Ukrainian navy do not deny they were in the location the Russians are saying they captured the boats.
Taking all that into account does it look like Ukraine poked the bear to get a reaction? I think so.
Now the Ukrainian cabinet are in an emergency meeting and are discussing the option of declaring Martial Law and a State of War.

Skipname
26th Nov 2018, 00:14
That's classed as an act of piracy isn't it? Same as Somalian pirates capturing ships in the Indian Ocean

Short answer: No.
Being in international waters and territorial waters are two different things.
Russia claims the boats were inside their territorial waters. If Russia's claim over those waters as their territorial waters has any merit is an entirely different question that I do not have the answer to.

NutLoose
26th Nov 2018, 00:19
And they say nuclear deterrents don't work, if they hadn't given up theirs on the assurances from the USA and the UK that we would protect them, none of this and the Crimea crap would have ever happened.... period. I blame the UK and USA PLC for not honouring their commitments in all of this.

atakacs
26th Nov 2018, 01:07
Just as with everything else in liffe there are two sides (at least) to this story. Given the stakes some some col headed review is warranted.
Anyone willing to get started?

Imagegear
26th Nov 2018, 06:01
I believe that the freedom of navigation to the whole of your national coastline, whether for purposes of trade, or defense cannot be prevented under international law.

The annexing of international waters for purposes of denying that freedom to vessels going about their normal activity is an act of war.

IG

ORAC
26th Nov 2018, 08:09
Russia now blockading the Sea of Azov and access to the Black Sea from Ukrainian ports.

Tensions Between Ukraine And Russia Boil Over In Sea Of Azov As Chances For War Escalate (Updated) - The Drive (http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/25101/tensions-between-ukraine-and-russia-boil-over-in-sea-of-azov-as-chances-for-war-escalate)

jolihokistix
26th Nov 2018, 08:15
The blockade has been pretty much in place for some time now, according to this background video and article on the BBC (for those who haven't seen it). The Russians built their bridge over the strait, restricted Ukrainian shipping passing undernearth, and are now afraid someone will blow it up.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46340283

ORAC
26th Nov 2018, 08:25
That will drag in the UN - and NATO - as it breaches international treaties and conventions on free passage on the high seas, let alone treaties signed by Russia giving free passage into the Sea of Azov.

KelvinD
26th Nov 2018, 08:27
A Russian interviewed on the BBC this morning said the strait had been closed "for a few hours" for security reasons (possibly relates to jolihokistix' note above). The Ukrainian ships allegedly decided it didn't apply to them. If true; serves them right.
It is interesting to hear the Ukraine President pushing for a declaration of military law in his country. This, just 4 months before the next presidential election, with Poroshenko's support dwindling.

ORAC
26th Nov 2018, 08:44
Reading both links above, this is not a one off exercise by Russia, but an ongoing campaign to establish a right to restrict and control passage through the Strait and into the Sea of Azov.

As such I can see it being challenged by many maritime nations, and both the USA and UK sending warships through the Dtarit to demonstrate their right of passage - just as they used to do in the Gulf of Sirte and are now regularly doing in the South China Sea.

A_Van
26th Nov 2018, 08:52
Since March 2018 Ukraine has captured 15+ ships because they have visited Crimea. Many crewmembers were arrested because Ukraine consider them as Ukrainian persons, though they had changed citizenship in 2014.
I am sure these facts were not in a spotlight of the western media.

After this pirate practice started by Ukraine and after many threats from the Ukrainian nazis that the Crimeam bridge would be blown up, the Russians said they would inspect incoming ships. Patience is not endless. This practice worked for a few months.

But now the Ukrainian president is eager to declare a martial law and decided to use the tension in the Azov sea to trigger the action to establish a sort of a state of war. The explanation is trivial: Poroshenko's rating is very low and his chances to be re-elected in spring 2019 are accordingly illusive. And if he is not elected, it would be a catastrophe for him. As all the Ukrainian establishment, he is a very corrupted person and his internal rivals have tons of papers that would allow the next leader to put him behind the bars. Or, in the optimistic case, if he escapes the country, to confiscate all his assets. How to avoid that? Taking a martial law on the table is the obvious solution. No elections, no democracy, etc. You may rule as long as you like.
So, this provocation was quickly implemented. 3 rusted cans started moving towards the Kerch straights. OK, nothing wrong in general, but they were warned that a formal advance notice was needed, as it worked before. This time it was ignored and the boats entered the Russian waters and kept moving towards the bridge. No surprise they were stopped. Unfortunately 3-6 sailors were wounded, but they are in a hospital already.
I wonder what would happen if 3 Russian mil. ships would ignore all the warnings and try to pass some UK or US internal waters. Or military airplanes entered the airspace and declined to leave making dangerous maneuvering.

Imagegear
26th Nov 2018, 10:56
Well of course if one believes that Crimea is part of Russia, then everything you say has an element of truth but as we know....

IG

Martin_123
26th Nov 2018, 12:57
Short answer: No.
Being in international waters and territorial waters are two different things.
Russia claims the boats were inside their territorial waters. If Russia's claim over those waters as their territorial waters has any merit is an entirely different question that I do not have the answer to.

I would argue that only Russia with its minority allies sees these waters as Russian.. for the vast majority of the world these waters are Ukrainian, so Russians were effectively attacking Ukrainian ships in Ukrainian waters

DaveReidUK
26th Nov 2018, 13:02
Since March 2018 Ukraine has captured 15+ ships because they have visited Crimea. Many crewmembers were arrested because Ukraine consider them as Ukrainian persons, though they had changed citizenship in 2014.
I am sure these facts were not in a spotlight of the western media.

After this pirate practice started by Ukraine and after many threats from the Ukrainian nazis that the Crimeam bridge would be blown up, the Russians said they would inspect incoming ships. Patience is not endless. This practice worked for a few months.

But now the Ukrainian president is eager to declare a martial law and decided to use the tension in the Azov sea to trigger the action to establish a sort of a state of war. The explanation is trivial: Poroshenko's rating is very low and his chances to be re-elected in spring 2019 are accordingly illusive. And if he is not elected, it would be a catastrophe for him. As all the Ukrainian establishment, he is a very corrupted person and his internal rivals have tons of papers that would allow the next leader to put him behind the bars. Or, in the optimistic case, if he escapes the country, to confiscate all his assets. How to avoid that? Taking a martial law on the table is the obvious solution. No elections, no democracy, etc. You may rule as long as you like.
So, this provocation was quickly implemented. 3 rusted cans started moving towards the Kerch straights. OK, nothing wrong in general, but they were warned that a formal advance notice was needed, as it worked before. This time it was ignored and the boats entered the Russian waters and kept moving towards the bridge. No surprise they were stopped. Unfortunately 3-6 sailors were wounded, but they are in a hospital already.
I wonder what would happen if 3 Russian mil. ships would ignore all the warnings and try to pass some UK or US internal waters. Or military airplanes entered the airspace and declined to leave making dangerous maneuvering.

Nice try .

Martin_123
26th Nov 2018, 13:11
Since March 2018 Ukraine has captured 15+ ships because they have visited Crimea. Many crewmembers were arrested because Ukraine consider them as Ukrainian persons, though they had changed citizenship in 2014.
I am sure these facts were not in a spotlight of the western media.

After this pirate practice started by Ukraine and after many threats from the Ukrainian nazis that the Crimeam bridge would be blown up, the Russians said they would inspect incoming ships. Patience is not endless. This practice worked for a few months.

But now the Ukrainian president is eager to declare a martial law and decided to use the tension in the Azov sea to trigger the action to establish a sort of a state of war. The explanation is trivial: Poroshenko's rating is very low and his chances to be re-elected in spring 2019 are accordingly illusive. And if he is not elected, it would be a catastrophe for him. As all the Ukrainian establishment, he is a very corrupted person and his internal rivals have tons of papers that would allow the next leader to put him behind the bars. Or, in the optimistic case, if he escapes the country, to confiscate all his assets. How to avoid that? Taking a martial law on the table is the obvious solution. No elections, no democracy, etc. You may rule as long as you like.
So, this provocation was quickly implemented. 3 rusted cans started moving towards the Kerch straights. OK, nothing wrong in general, but they were warned that a formal advance notice was needed, as it worked before. This time it was ignored and the boats entered the Russian waters and kept moving towards the bridge. No surprise they were stopped. Unfortunately 3-6 sailors were wounded, but they are in a hospital already.
I wonder what would happen if 3 Russian mil. ships would ignore all the warnings and try to pass some UK or US internal waters. Or military airplanes entered the airspace and declined to leave making dangerous maneuvering.

I can't comment on Ukrainian government being corrupt (no less more than Russian?) or Poroshenko's attempts to maintain power (no worse than Putins?), but clearly in 2003 both Russia and Ukraine signed a treaty that Kerch strait and Azov sea are shared territorial waters.. on what grounds did Russia put a large cargo vessel in the straight to block access to Ukrainian ports? On what grounds Russians have the right to inspect Ukrainian ships sailing along Ukrainian coast line? This is the reason why no-one likes or believes Russia, you can't backtrack on your own treaties... scumbags don't behave the way Putin does

and forgive me for taking the air out of your sail preemptively, but I know how Kremlin supporters, at the first drop of criticism, like to steer the conversation and point fingers at Americans, as in - how they are bad and doing wrong things and ignoring treaties etc.. No one in the civilized world is regarding US as some sort of symbol of fairness or justice, they receive their own share of criticism which most of them have learned to deal with in one way or another. This is what separates grown people from annoying brats

KelvinD
26th Nov 2018, 15:21
you can't backtrack on your own treaties
Shh! Don't mention that to the Donald!
I am sure Russia signed a treaty relating to the Azov sea but that was before Crimea was restored back to a Russian territory. The bridge and the straight are now totally in Russia.
The Russians had said they were going to close the passage beneath the bridge for a couple of hours for security purposes. The Ukrainians thought it might be a good idea to try a spot of provocation. And they came second.
I am pretty much convinced this was ruse on the part of Poroshenko with the forthcoming election in mind. Why is it that with all the problems they have in the Donbass region they have not declared martial law in the 4 years this has been going on?

ORAC
26th Nov 2018, 15:40
I am sure Russia signed a treaty relating to the Azov sea but that was before Crimea was restored back to a Russian territory. The bridge and the straight are now totally in Russia. Hmmm - no.

The strait is an international waterway with an international right of way for all shipping into the Sea of Azov where Ukraine has major coastal cities and seaports.

Russia has, since the seizure of Crimea, had eyes and plans to seize the coastal region and cities and establish a land corridor between Crime and Russia. An embargo, legal or otherwise, of the cities has long been considered a possible tactic.

A_Van
26th Nov 2018, 16:28
Regarding waters, free passage, etc. - yes, there is a Russia-Ukraine treaty about the Azov sea. But its clauses often refer to the Russia-Ukraine treaty about friendship as a document of a higher level. And the latter was recentrly denonciated by Ukraine, unilaterally. Thus, from a legal standpoint it impacts the former doc, obviously.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian ships, including navy were travelling to and from Ukrainian ports in Azov with no problem. Just in September, a similar group of 3 passed with no incidents. They informed the other side in advance and moved in accordance with international rules: move at good speed, no provocative maneuvering and other hostile actions. Russia even provided a pilot (or a navigator?) to help stay in deep waters during the passage. Why not to follow this way of behaviour this time again? Instead, there was no notice, ships maneuvered in a dangerous and provocative way, declined to listen to orders of the other side. On one ship the crew even took out the cover from the canon, WTF for? Clearly it was a provocation.

But things happen and why to generate such a noise internationally? May I please refer to a similar case happened in Black Sea in 1988 when two US ships (thousand times more powerful than Ukrainian boats) entered Soviet waters, declined to move out and also started dangerous maneuvers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident

(Russian story provides more details - https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BD %D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B 9_%D0%92%D0%9C%D0%A1_%D0%A1%D0%A8%D0%90_%D0%B8_%D0%A1%D0%A1% D0%A1%D0%A0_%D0%B2_%D0%A7%D1%91%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BC_%D0% BC%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5_(1988)

In a similar way the Russian ships bumped them and when the US helis were getting ready to take off, they were warned that they would be shot down without hesitation. Finally the US ships moved away. And AFAIR nobody was crying at that time in UN, talked about martial law, defense emergency, etc.

racedo
26th Nov 2018, 18:02
3 ships, 2 armed "artillery" ships and 1 tugboat. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=73&v=gcTSDaCg5xA

Russian speakers can translate if they so wish. The tugboat captain killed power well before he is hit.

Lonewolf_50
26th Nov 2018, 18:10
I am reminded of the movie Ben Hur( the scene on the galley): Ramming Speed!
If you want to break the blockade, mines and submarines are a handy way to do that.

racedo
26th Nov 2018, 18:11
Regarding waters, free passage, etc. - yes, there is a Russia-Ukraine treaty about the Azov sea. But its clauses often refer to the Russia-Ukraine treaty about friendship as a document of a higher level. And the latter was recentrly denonciated by Ukraine, unilaterally. Thus, from a legal standpoint it impacts the former doc, obviously.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian ships, including navy were travelling to and from Ukrainian ports in Azov with no problem. Just in September, a similar group of 3 passed with no incidents. They informed the other side in advance and moved in accordance with international rules: move at good speed, no provocative maneuvering and other hostile actions. Russia even provided a pilot (or a navigator?) to help stay in deep waters during the passage. Why not to follow this way of behaviour this time again? Instead, there was no notice, ships maneuvered in a dangerous and provocative way, declined to listen to orders of the other side. On one ship the crew even took out the cover from the canon, WTF for? Clearly it was a provocation.

But things happen and why to generate such a noise internationally? May I please refer to a similar case happened in Black Sea in 1988 when two US ships (thousand times more powerful than Ukrainian boats) entered Soviet waters, declined to move out and also started dangerous maneuvers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident

(Russian story provides more details - https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BD %D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B 9_%D0%92%D0%9C%D0%A1_%D0%A1%D0%A8%D0%90_%D0%B8_%D0%A1%D0%A1% D0%A1%D0%A0_%D0%B2_%D0%A7%D1%91%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BC_%D0% BC%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5_(1988)

In a similar way the Russian ships bumped them and when the US helis were getting ready to take off, they were warned that they would be shot down without hesitation. Finally the US ships moved away. And AFAIR nobody was crying at that time in UN, talked about martial law, defense emergency, etc.

In 1988 US were in direct breach of Montreux convention which controls what can be in Black Sea both in number of vessels and in tonnage........ reads as a clear provocation.

racedo
26th Nov 2018, 18:21
The blockade has been pretty much in place for some time now, according to this background video and article on the BBC (for those who haven't seen it). The Russians built their bridge over the strait, restricted Ukrainian shipping passing undernearth, and are now afraid someone will blow it up.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46340283

Bogus claim. If it were the case then expected arrivuals at Mariupol and Berdyansk would not be listed.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ports/766/Ukraine_port:MARIUPOL
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ports/18491/Ukraine_port:BERDYANSK

fitliker
26th Nov 2018, 18:27
Maybe ,if the Ukranians lost the hydrophobic inflammatory anti-Russian rhetoric the Russians might allow them to sail under a Russian bridge in that new part of Russia .

Or we could get the Zombie Apocalypse started early.
If I was a betting man I would bet green Zero ,as nothing is gonna happen .
Just one guy trying to avoid going to the polls :)

West Coast
26th Nov 2018, 21:35
Since March 2018 Ukraine has captured 15+ ships because they have visited Crimea. Many crewmembers were arrested because Ukraine consider them as Ukrainian persons, though they had changed citizenship in 2014.
I am sure these facts were not in a spotlight of the western media.

After this pirate practice started by Ukraine and after many threats from the Ukrainian nazis that the Crimeam bridge would be blown up, the Russians said they would inspect incoming ships. Patience is not endless. This practice worked for a few months.

But now the Ukrainian president is eager to declare a martial law and decided to use the tension in the Azov sea to trigger the action to establish a sort of a state of war. The explanation is trivial: Poroshenko's rating is very low and his chances to be re-elected in spring 2019 are accordingly illusive. And if he is not elected, it would be a catastrophe for him. As all the Ukrainian establishment, he is a very corrupted person and his internal rivals have tons of papers that would allow the next leader to put him behind the bars. Or, in the optimistic case, if he escapes the country, to confiscate all his assets. How to avoid that? Taking a martial law on the table is the obvious solution. No elections, no democracy, etc. You may rule as long as you like.
So, this provocation was quickly implemented. 3 rusted cans started moving towards the Kerch straights. OK, nothing wrong in general, but they were warned that a formal advance notice was needed, as it worked before. This time it was ignored and the boats entered the Russian waters and kept moving towards the bridge. No surprise they were stopped. Unfortunately 3-6 sailors were wounded, but they are in a hospital already.
I wonder what would happen if 3 Russian mil. ships would ignore all the warnings and try to pass some UK or US internal waters. Or military airplanes entered the airspace and declined to leave making dangerous maneuvering.


Van

Are you basing your narrative off media reports or do you have inside information from contacts in the military/govt to bolster your claims?

racedo
26th Nov 2018, 22:36
Van

Are you basing your narrative off media reports or do you have inside information from contacts in the military/govt to bolster your claims?

Provocations have been going on a while

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/112-ua-russias-boat-held-provocation-when-two-ukrainian-military-ships-entered-mariupol-port.html

https://www.rferl.org/a/kremlin-warns-may-act-protect-russian-ukraine-seizes-ships-sea-of-azov/29605057.html
Radio Free Europe talks of 15 vessels held.

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/some-16-ships-almost-all-under-russian-flag-violate-ban-on-entering-ports-in-annexed-crimea-in-august.html

https://112.international/ukraine-top-news/infrastructure-ministry-to-ban-russian-vessels-to-enter-ukraines-inland-waterways-27900.html
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-orders-arrest-cargo-ship-breaking-crimea-sanctions.html

WingNut60
26th Nov 2018, 23:29
I am perplexed as to any logical link between an international incident, such as this, and the need to declare martial law at home??
I can see a logical link, but not to this incident.
I stand to be educated.

Skipname
26th Nov 2018, 23:43
I am perplexed as to any logical link between an international incident, such as this, and the need to declare martial law at home??
I can see a logical link, but not to this incident.
I stand to be educated.

I am just speculating of course, but maybe it has something to do with one’s desire to stay away from polls and “the west” needing an excuse to apply adisional sanctions on Russia since the current ones are not having the desired results. :oh:

WingNut60
27th Nov 2018, 00:37
That is the logical link that I can see too.
But it is not, logically, related to this incident that I can see.

In what manner will martial law act as a deterrent or in anyway penalise anyone except Ukraine citizens?

fitliker
27th Nov 2018, 01:22
Poll dodging stunt .
What country in the world allows military under bridge traffic ,without any control or supervision ?

Try flying under a bridge without permission and it is a license rip .

jolihokistix
27th Nov 2018, 01:47
Bridge over troubled water?

WingNut60
27th Nov 2018, 02:28
Why anyone ever thought that replacing Yanukovych with Petro Poroshenko was going to be "a blow for democracy" is beyond comprehension.

Maybe you just need to be an American to see huge value in having a hard right government.

lomapaseo
27th Nov 2018, 02:34
In what manner will martial law act as a deterrent or in anyway penalise anyone except Ukraine citizens?

it removes the free press and citizen open speculation from view and forces the other side to rely on other sources

meleagertoo
27th Nov 2018, 03:02
Well, from what we've seen in the video the gunboat did have right of way over the tug. Tug was the give-way vessel. Maybe the Russians are just getting heavy over enforcing COLREGS?

WingNut60
27th Nov 2018, 03:16
When you order someone who is crossing your bow to stop, and he does ...................

You need to be a suicidal fanatic or to have made a serious error of judgement to deliberately stop in the path of an oncoming warship.

jolihokistix
27th Nov 2018, 06:35
The Russians are probably irritated after losing their aircraft carrier and the only dry dock they had to fix it. Sabotage theories going around, even?

Maybe that is why Ukraine really should not be playing catch-me-if-you-can near this bridge.

Time for a new binding agreement, methinks.

A_Van
27th Nov 2018, 10:35
The Russians are probably irritated after losing their aircraft carrier and the only dry dock they had to fix it. Sabotage theories going around, even?
.......

Change your sources of information. Or, maybe, your imagination just flies too high.

May I disappoint you, but the aircraft carrier was not lost at all and just got a minor damage when a crane fell down. It will be relocated to another dock but its modernization goes on. And no sabotage theories here. Metal fatigue and rust in one of the dock segments are likely the cause.

Sallyann1234
27th Nov 2018, 10:50
Let's face it. Putin will not rest until he has taken back the whole of Ukraine. And the way Ukraine's present administration are behaving is playing right into his hands.

racedo
27th Nov 2018, 12:47
That is the logical link that I can see too.
But it is not, logically, related to this incident that I can see.

In what manner will martial law act as a deterrent or in anyway penalise anyone except Ukraine citizens?

Ukrainian population is given as 44 Million "officially", reality is that it is closer to 36 million as huge numbers have escaped abroad to EU, Russia or just about anywhere else.

In 2017 Poland issued 235,000 Work permits, 80% were to Ukrainians............... so assumming workers, dependants plus the undocumented then Poland gained 300,000 Ukrainians in 2017. This has been consistently happening since 2014. https://www.forbes.com/sites/freylindsay/2018/09/19/ukrainian-immigrants-give-the-polish-government-an-out-on-refugees/

Russia has approx 2.7 million people of Ukrainian origin and that rose by 1.6 million since 2014 (ignoring Crimea).

Using martial law the Govt can shut borders or initiate a mobilisation etc. This will no doubt explain why many Ukrainians decide not to return home at Christmas in case they end up conscripted. Interesting in the Forbes article the Ukrainians settling in Poland were highlighting corruption in Ukraine as being a major issue.

A_Van
27th Nov 2018, 13:27
Let's face it. Putin will not rest until he has taken back the whole of Ukraine. And the way Ukraine's present administration are behaving is playing right into his hands.

I don't think Putin needs Ukraine. Even the south-eastern part with those self-proclaimed republics. Otherwise they would be recognised as independent states (as Crimea did) and then allowed to be incorporated. If this was not done in 2014, no reason to do it later. As for the rest part of Ukraine, it would be madness to think they could be pulled back, and nobody wants it. The US can easily take Mexico, but what for?
Even if some idiots in Ukraine would declare a war to Russia, the territory would not be taken. The regime would be changed and that's it. Recall that when Georgia attacked Russian peace keeping forces in 2008 and very soon the Russian tanks were rolling towards its capital, they were called back. Even the regime was not changed. Just that mad Georgian pseudo-fuehrer guy was shut up.

A_Van
27th Nov 2018, 13:34
Ukrainian population is given as 44 Million "officially", reality is that it is closer to 36 million as huge numbers have escaped abroad to EU, Russia or just about anywhere else.

In 2017 Poland issued 235,000 Work permits, 80% were to Ukrainians............... so assumming workers, dependants plus the undocumented then Poland gained 300,000 Ukrainians in 2017. This has been consistently happening since 2014. https://www.forbes.com/sites/freylindsay/2018/09/19/ukrainian-immigrants-give-the-polish-government-an-out-on-refugees/

Russia has approx 2.7 million people of Ukrainian origin and that rose by 1.6 million since 2014 (ignoring Crimea).

Using martial law the Govt can shut borders or initiate a mobilisation etc. This will no doubt explain why many Ukrainians decide not to return home at Christmas in case they end up conscripted. Interesting in the Forbes article the Ukrainians settling in Poland were highlighting corruption in Ukraine as being a major issue.

36 mln is too an optimistic estimate. Many experts tell about 30-32 mln remaining in the country. Thus, the percentage of those who left the country for good even exceeds Baltic states who were previous "champions".

BTW, what a strange imposing of martial law yesterday. Poroshenko announced it only in those 10 regions where his position is weak. To shut down the opposition...

racedo
27th Nov 2018, 13:39
36 mln is too an optimistic estimate. Many experts tell about 30-32 mln remaining in the country. Thus, the percentage of those who left the country for good even exceeds Baltic states who were previous "champions".

BTW, what a strange imposing of martial law yesterday. Poroshenko announced it only in those 10 regions where his position is weak. To shut down the opposition...

Amazing how many people can vote when they are not in the country.

jolihokistix
28th Nov 2018, 08:11
According to this article written in the summer of 2018, Russia was already allegedly blockading (or at least restricting movements through) the Kerch Strait in August of this year, so there is some genuine history to this incident, and there must have been increasing frustration for Ukrainian shipping and trade.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-soldiers-killed-as-fighting-flares-in-rebel-held-east/a-45202290

A_Van
28th Nov 2018, 09:43
...
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-soldiers-killed-as-fighting-flares-in-rebel-held-east/a-45202290

"Diode" media as usual. Only bad news about one side, and only good news about the other one. Sometimes even more dangerous than fake news.

Though on the Ukrainian army side the casualties that unfortunately occur are related to servicemen (who at least should be ready for hardships, etc.), on the rebel side it is mostly a civilain population who suffers. Every now and then we here see footage of children and women killed or wounded after artillery strikes of the gov. forces, houses destroyed, etc. Terrible civil war, though in a latent phase now...

Coming back to the ships. The URL below is about Ukrainian maritime pirate policy. In the recent 2 years or so they arrested some 15 civil ships. Their justification is that the ships entered the Crimean ports after 2014:

https://www.uawire.org/ukraine-has-arrested-15-ships-for-visiting-closed-crimean-ports (https://www.uawire.org/ukraine-has-arrested-15-ships-for-visiting-closed-crimean-ports)

Some of the ships were already sold. The whole list contains some 900+ vessels. Their way of doing business....
(it was not easy to find any article in English because western media prefers not to publish such news)

As for the vessels captured 2 days ago, the Ukraine security service confirms that two intel officers (similar to the Russian GRU) were onboard the ships that made this provocation. Note, the link is original Ukrainian (their security service site):

https://ssu.gov.ua/ua/news/1/category/2/view/5463#.5Ci9bewm.dpbs (https://ssu.gov.ua/ua/news/1/category/2/view/5463%23.5Ci9bewm.dpbs)

Then click on news at 18:40 27 листопада 2018

KelvinD
28th Nov 2018, 13:41
Here's an English version confirming the presence of Ukrainian security officers presence:
The head of Ukraine's SBU security service, Vasyl Hrytsak, confirmed Russian reports that members of the service were on board the boats, but added that it was a "routine counter-intelligence mission" of a type that the Russian navy carried out regularly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46356111?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/crr7mlg0d21t/ukraine-conflict&link_location=live-reporting-story
You are right about the 'diode media', A_Van but this morning the BBC has produced Putin's views:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46370619

ORAC
28th Nov 2018, 14:02
POLITICO: Putin is in Control

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-putin-is-in-control/

flash8
28th Nov 2018, 15:24
Russia has yet again shown remarkable constraint in the face of Willy Wonka's (sponsored by the Western powers) provocations
One day State (and the CIA) are going to go to go a step too far in their duplicity.

Those that believe Ukraine is not complcit in this need to look deeper - this is a country run by the Mafia and a Criminal Government who will stop at nothing to achieve their objectives.

I spent four months in Ukraine - Odessa and Kiev - and the utter hatred Ukrainians have for ethnic Russians shocked even me - normally placid individuals spitting venom - this stays with one.

Anyway greetings from Moscow.

A_Van
28th Nov 2018, 16:44
......

Those that believe Ukraine is not complcit in this need to look deeper - this is a country run by the Mafia and a Criminal Government who will stop at nothing to achieve their objectives.

I spent four months in Ukraine - Odessa and Kiev - and the utter hatred Ukrainians have for ethnic Russians shocked even me - normally placid individuals spitting venom - this stays with one.

Anyway greetings from Moscow.




A few words to defend Ukrainian people.... I spent 5 years in Ukraine (in an AF military college) and then visited it regularly. Have (some) relatives and (many) friends there.
IMHO, the problem is that people there (and in Russia too) are easily brain-washed. Comparing it with (Western) Europe where I have many friends and stayed for quite some time too, I tend to think that, on average, people in Europe do more analysis themselves, including critical analysis. And are more skeptical to what government and media are feeding them.
Probably because the level of life is higher, people are more independent and less nervous, so to say.
When you are poor, come home after a hard (but poorly paid) work, see that you and the family urgently need this, this and that but you can't do anything, you are filled with anger. Tired as a dog, you switch on a zombie-box (a TV set) and hear "local kings of the hill" telling you the same very story: all your troubles are because of bloody Russians (Americans, jews, arabs, whoever). Absolute majority will soon follow the line.

We all know what happened to Germany in 30's. A great nation with great history that gave so many natural scientists, writers/poets, philosophers etc. etc. were relatively quickly brainwashed by nazi propaganda based on hatred to other nations.

People need peace, stability and certain level of life to be able to think more unbiased and calmly. Ukrainian people are very nice (and many girls are just stunning - even The Beatles noticed it in "Back in the USSR"), they just need to be pulled out of that black hole where several corrupted governments and then (after 2014 coup) neonazis managed to put them...

racedo
28th Nov 2018, 17:06
A few words to defend Ukrainian people.... I spent 5 years in Ukraine (in an AF military college) and then visited it regularly. Have (some) relatives and (many) friends there.
IMHO, the problem is that people there (and in Russia too) are easily brain-washed. Comparing it with (Western) Europe where I have many friends and stayed for quite some time too, I tend to think that, on average, people in Europe do more analysis themselves, including critical analysis. And are more skeptical to what government and media are feeding them.
Probably because the level of life is higher, people are more independent and less nervous, so to say.
When you are poor, come home after a hard (but poorly paid) work, see that you and the family urgently need this, this and that but you can't do anything, you are filled with anger. Tired as a dog, you switch on a zombie-box (a TV set) and hear "local kings of the hill" telling you the same very story: all your troubles are because of bloody Russians (Americans, jews, arabs, whoever). Absolute majority will soon follow the line.

We all know what happened to Germany in 30's. A great nation with great history that gave so many natural scientists, writers/poets, philosophers etc. etc. were relatively quickly brainwashed by nazi propaganda based on hatred to other nations.

People need peace, stability and certain level of life to be able to think more unbiased and calmly. Ukrainian people are very nice (and many girls are just stunning - even The Beatles noticed it in "Back in the USSR"), they just need to be pulled out of that black hole where several corrupted governments and then (after 2014 coup) neonazis managed to put them...

I am afraid that your belief that Western society is somewhat more challenging and willing to question their leaders is not one I can subscribe to.

Iraq 2003 ........where people just accepted the Western Govt narrative even when proof was available via Scott Ritter than they were wrong, then it was a campaign of destruction against anybody who said anything differently.

Libya 2011............... same story and a hiding of whom West were supporting, "Islamic Fundamentalists" who happily Royal Navy gave a lift to one who slaughtered people in Manchester

Brexit.......... media again pushing same narrative

Trump in US............. media again with a narrative and a bias that is scary, turn it the other way and if you had 90% media echoing everything great the its an easy case for a war.

Media both main stream and social media can easily be manipulated to do what ever the manipulators want and believe it will only be a matter of time where it ends up with disastrous results.

I am quite open with friends in saying I read RT.com and watch as they claim its propganda. But don't say anything when I say I also read BBC / Daily Mail (online as no way paying for it) / Drudgrereport / China News / NYT / Jerusalem Post (plus other Israeli) / Kievpost plus couple of others. Do I ever have the full story ... probably not bit over time you get to see who is promoting what.

Rwanda 1994 used the media to propogate a genocide....................... don't think we that far from a 1st world version. Maybe it will not be the numbers there but it will be numbers.

flash8
28th Nov 2018, 18:02
IMHO, the problem is that people there (and in Russia too) are easily brain-washed.Indeed, even through popular culture, you may recall the Sevastopol scene in the film Brat II (Translation:"You bitches will answer for Sevastopol!"). I saw this in a Moscow cinema and the audience cheered....

A long time ago that was.. but stuck in my mind the sentiment Russia has for Ukraine....

When you have teenage girls in Odessa throwing petrol bombs into a building full of innocent Russians to see them burn... you truly wonder how deep sentiment runs on both sides.

Such a beautiful country though. Odessa is a paradise, utterly beautiful.

jolihokistix
29th Nov 2018, 03:02
More background information came up in the net. Another interesting article and especially the map. Question, would the Russian S-400s be brought in by ship, or by road, ie over that bridge?

If by bridge, the whole system to be set up by the end of this year, then I can finally understand why both the Ukrainians and the Russians would be so nervous now near this new bridge.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/ukraine-condemns-russias-plan-deploy-400-missiles-crimea-181128221940627.html

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1201x1201/kerchbridgeeventmap_0d091f140c029a5fd1f244b9c7ea4e05bfdacb3e .jpg

icarus sun
29th Nov 2018, 03:45
Time for more sanctions. Russia is showing again it cannot be trusted.
This time we need to sanction the Russian financial sector.
Hit the Putin mafia in their pockets.

grateful_pax
29th Nov 2018, 09:15
Change your sources of information. Or, maybe, your imagination just flies too high.

May I disappoint you, but the aircraft carrier was not lost at all and just got a minor damage when a crane fell down. It will be relocated to another dock but its modernization goes on. And no sabotage theories here. Metal fatigue and rust in one of the dock segments are likely the cause.
Are you going to tell us where such a dock is located within ex-USSR?
I can do it for you: Mykolaiv, Ukraine. That's it.

grateful_pax
29th Nov 2018, 09:25
We all know what happened to Germany in 30's. A great nation with great history that gave so many natural scientists, writers/poets, philosophers etc. etc. were relatively quickly brainwashed by nazi propaganda based on hatred to other nations.

People need peace, stability and certain level of life to be able to think more unbiased and calmly. Ukrainian people are very nice (and many girls are just stunning - even The Beatles noticed it in "Back in the USSR"), they just need to be pulled out of that black hole where several corrupted governments and then (after 2014 coup) neonazis managed to put them...
How many pro-ukrainian political advertisements do you see in Russia daily?
Here in Ukraine there's literally over a half of all political ads are pro-Russian.
How many pro-ukrainian TV stations are out there in russia? Here in Ukraine there's a dozen of pro-russia TV stations.
Now tell me more about Germany in their 30's.
And about the liberation of Poland in 1939.
And about the coup in Finland in 1940.
And every time you mention nazi, please tell me more about the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and the infamous Brest-Litovsk military parade.
Accuse your enemies of what you're doing, same ol' story repeats again and again.

jolihokistix
29th Nov 2018, 09:46
A Van: "Diode" media as usual. Only bad news about one side, and only good news about the other one. Sometimes even more dangerous than fake news.

Thank you. Yes, I am aware of the Russian side of the story, for which many thanks, but I collect diode media stories from every angle, not only Russian, to try and understand the poor old truth which is usually abandoned naked and shivering in the middle of the battlefield. Thank you too for your links, although I struggled with the second one. :ok: (Point taken about nothing in English.)

A_Van
29th Nov 2018, 11:25
More background information came up in the net. Another interesting article and especially the map. Question, would the Russian S-400s be brought in by ship, or by road, ie over that bridge?

If by bridge, the whole system to be set up by the end of this year, then I can finally understand why both the Ukrainians and the Russians would be so nervous now near this new bridge.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/ukraine-condemns-russias-plan-deploy-400-missiles-crimea-181128221940627.html

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1201x1201/kerchbridgeeventmap_0d091f140c029a5fd1f244b9c7ea4e05bfdacb3e .jpg

Bridge does not matter in this case. The system is quite transportable. I assume by air or by sea would be better, no turbulence to a usual every day traffic across the bridge. And as it is mentioned in the 2nd line of the artilce you are referring to, it is already the 4th complex. No game changer.

But the bridge is a nervous point, indeed. Because in Ukraine, even on the governmental level (to say nothing of pro-nazi thugs) some mad people say that an action must be undertaken to blow it up.

pax britanica
29th Nov 2018, 11:37
Who to believe on this one. Putin i am sure would like some sort of buffer between him and west but nothing like the Stalin version which russia could no longer afford anyway. My wife has a UK based Russian friend whose view is completely the opposite of UK government and media but these days UK Government and media are no more credible with the Truth than the Soviets and Pravda were as we have all found out.

Putin is no more a troublemaker than Trump with his disregard contempt even for treaties signed by his COUNTRY and Putin is a lot smarter. In the UK it is none of our business being at the very opposite end of Europe and with no ability to influence the outcome at all. of course if we stay in the Eu then our generally accepted diplomatic skills could be deployed from a base that is credible.





.

in

racedo
29th Nov 2018, 13:05
Time for more sanctions. Russia is showing again it cannot be trusted.
This time we need to sanction the Russian financial sector.
Hit the Putin mafia in their pockets.


Yeah that is really working well isn't it.
West cut off funding in the past and those financial people in China were happy to lend the money.

icarus sun
29th Nov 2018, 18:10
Sanctions are causing real problems for Russia.
The Russian mafia under Putin are trying every trick they know to try to get them lifted.

Lonewolf_50
29th Nov 2018, 18:17
icarus, who is this we (https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/615773-russia-opens-fire-ukrainian-ships-3.html#post10323221) that you are referring to?

racedo
29th Nov 2018, 18:19
icarus, who is this we (https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/615773-russia-opens-fire-ukrainian-ships-3.html#post10323221) that you are referring to?

Think he wants some American blood from US Service personnel on Ukrainian soil so rich Nazi supporting Oligrachs can maintain their wealth.

Lonewolf_50
29th Nov 2018, 18:22
racedo, I was pointing toward a post that had to do with sanctions, not armed intervention. There's a difference.
In other news, Mr Trump called off a meeting in Argentina with Vlad, allegedly due to this little fracas. (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-touts-trump-putin-meeting-—-before-trump-cancels-it/ar-BBQeNzv?ocid=spartandhp)

Doubt Vlad cares.

flash8
29th Nov 2018, 19:31
Doubt Vlad cares.No such thing as "Vlad"... the diminutive of Vladimir is Volodya..... in the interests of accuracy :) :)

lomapaseo
29th Nov 2018, 20:48
No such thing as "Vlad"... the diminutive of Vladimir is Volodya..... in the interests of accuracy https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif

Maybe his friends don't call him "Vlad" but we do as it's easier to slur-pronounce

jolihokistix
7th Dec 2018, 10:07
More background information (not just 'diode' @A Van) to this incident, for anyone wishing to dig a little below the surface: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/wag-dog-ukraine-181204123731061.html

grateful_pax
7th Dec 2018, 11:27
More background information (not just 'diode' @A Van) to this incident, for anyone wishing to dig a little below the surface: a link to the article
A small side note.
The article mentions "investigative journalist" Sergei Leschenko.
However, here in Ukraine he is mostly known not as an investigative journalist but as a man who bought a very expensive apartment at the heart of Kyiv shortly after 2014 Maidan while not having any significant source of income.
What's the most intriguing is that the apartment was paid from an account opened in Sberbank of Russian Federation. What a 'spirit' of 2014 Maidan, huh? Hypocrisy everywhere, man.

racedo
7th Dec 2018, 13:59
More background information (not just 'diode' @A Van) to this incident, for anyone wishing to dig a little below the surface: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/wag-dog-ukraine-181204123731061.html

He is wrong in that the "Ukrainian" Orthodox church will not have Canonical status. It will be subservient to Constantinople. Poroshenko is using this as an attempt to "NATIONALISE" religion.

It means than another provocation has to occur within the 30 days of the granting of Martial law.

Kiev was claiming that it only lost a couple of hundred service personnel in the War in the east but having been to Central Kiev in last 2 years there are thousands of photos of men lost around the churches in Cental Kiev. These are, based on disucssions with a number of people the men only from Kiev.

racedo
7th Dec 2018, 14:22
A small side note.
The article mentions "investigative journalist" Sergei Leschenko.
However, here in Ukraine he is mostly known not as an investigative journalist but as a man who bought a very expensive apartment at the heart of Kyiv shortly after 2014 Maidan while not having any significant source of income.
What's the most intriguing is that the apartment was paid from an account opened in Sberbank of Russian Federation. What a 'spirit' of 2014 Maidan, huh? Hypocrisy everywhere, man.

Maidan was about one set of rich oligarchs getting rid of others. But hey the Oligarchs have been buying up property in London so all is well.

After Kiev held EU to ransom over Gas a number of years go. A clear decision was reached by Germany / France / NL and others that it would never happen again, hence why Nordstream 2 is being built which avoids any transit issues. US is opposed to this because it sees EU as a market for its own domestically produced LNG, it has been openly saying it for years. Transiting via Ukraine means they can suggest issues to people to reduce transit which would justify US LNG more attractive even though it costs double.

Southstream that would have supplied Bulgaria was stopped after Bulgaria has visits from the well known "peacemaker" Senator John McCain who made it clear that US would penalise Sofia if it continued. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-south-stream-halted-bulgaria/25418146.html.

Of course Russia is now building Turkstream which will supply Turkey with Gas and EU to support Turkish Stream extension to Bulgaria, CEEC region - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-10/27/c_137561135.htm) Bulgaris will be getting its gas as an extension of this along with Serbia, Hungary and others.

A_Van
8th Dec 2018, 06:28
More background information (not just 'diode' @A Van) to this incident, for anyone wishing to dig a little below the surface: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/wag-dog-ukraine-181204123731061.html

Publication in Al Jazeera is a smart move because it may look like an "independent and non-biased" point of view. In fact, the author - Leonid Ragozin - is not neutral. He worked for BBC for many years and now resides in Riga, Latvia, being funded by anti-Russian customers (one cannot sell any other information there). But he did not dig anything below the surface in this article - just a standard propaganda.

jolihokistix
8th Dec 2018, 07:36
Thanks for the feedback! :ok:

DaveReidUK
8th Dec 2018, 07:48
Publication in Al Jazeera is a smart move because it may look like an "independent and non-biased" point of view. In fact, the author - Leonid Ragozin - is not neutral. He worked for BBC for many years and now resides in Riga, Latvia, being funded by anti-Russian customers (one cannot sell any other information there). But he did not dig anything below the surface in this article - just a standard propaganda.

What parts of his report aren't true and/or what has he omitted? Just interested to know.

jolihokistix
8th Dec 2018, 07:55
Agreed. Actually I learned quite a bit from the article. It does not seem particularly 'anti-Russian' to me, and not especially 'pro-Ukranian' either..

I can find pro-Russian articles easily, and anti-Russian articles too, but I am interested in gaining an overall picture, including both sides' naturally 'diode' views.

A Van, whose articles do you suggest that we read then? :)

racedo
8th Dec 2018, 15:15
Agreed. Actually I learned quite a bit from the article. It does not seem particularly 'anti-Russian' to me, and not especially 'pro-Ukranian' either..

I can find pro-Russian articles easily, and anti-Russian articles too, but I am interested in gaining an overall picture, including both sides' naturally 'diode' views.

A Van, whose articles do you suggest that we read then? :)

RT and Kievpost give a snopis of both sides.

A_Van
10th Dec 2018, 11:30
RT and Kievpost give a snopis of both sides.



Gentlemen, I honestly do not know and I assume Racedo knows better. I do not read RT (and quite rarely watch it on TV) and KyivPost. They both are clearly "diode" news agencies addressing the (foreign) audience that cannot "process raw stuff".

Language is an issue. We here can read both Russian and Ukrainian sources (those who are not just fooling foreigners) and talk to folks involved (there are quite some from Ukraine and Donbass around), but what are adequate sources in English I have a difficulty to advise.

A_Van
10th Dec 2018, 16:57
What parts of his report aren't true and/or what has he omitted? Just interested to know.

Oh, God, the article is so long... OK, here is MHO. Quotes from article are among <<< >>> My lines are in italic font.


<<< On November 25, Russia attacked and seized three Ukrainian gunboats and their crew while they were attempting to transit into the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. >>>

The key word there is "transit" and it sounds like a routine peaceful pass in the author's context. In fact, the goal was to attempt to break through the Russian border. Ideally, being unnoticed (and thus blaze the trail for future hidden operations) or at least challenge the Russians. In any case, do it without prior warning of the other side.
BTW 1: There was a queue of some 160 vessels waiting for their turn to pass through the strait on that day, but those guys ignored this crowd. Would anybody standing in a queue of 160 be happy to see 2-3 arrogant people (showing the charged guns and ready to shoot) passing through it without waiting?
BTW 2: The regimes of some straits imply that an advance notice should be given. Here, even a 24 hr notice is accepted (while, e.g. the US Navy had to give Turkey a 1-2 week notice for their ships recently intended to enter Black Sea), but it was ignored and it was strange because a similar group of Ukrainian mil. vessels made a similar trip in September (with notice) without any problem.
As it became clear from the docs found onboard, the goal was to try to pass the strait ignoring the Russian side completely. The action was controlled by two officers of the Ukraine security service who were on board the boats.


<<< The move caused a wave of international condemnation, with Ukraine claiming it signalled renewed Russian aggression and pleading with NATO to confront Russia in the Black Sea region.On the surface, it seems this is just the latest iteration of the Russian-Ukrainian military and political confrontation which the Maidan revolution sparked back in 2014. >>>

This "revolution" was, in fact, a typical coup d'état performed by Ukrainian ultra-rights with support of the US. What about an assistant of a (foreign) secretary of state distributing cookies to people in riot against a legitimate establishment (yes, corrupted, but not more than the current one) and encouraging them to throw away the president and the government? But this was what Victoria Nuland was doing in Kiev in winter 2013-2014 - see e.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957)
After that talking about (Russian) meddling in the elections by launching some bots in chats for youngsters sounds ridiculous. I cannot imagine a deputy of the Russian foreign minister openly distributing glasses of vodka among "gilets jaunes" in Paris (who shout "down with Macron") or in London among the protesters (pro or contra Brexit or whatever).


<<< In March that year, Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula >>>

Crimea was not occupied by anybody. Crimean people made their own decision to leave Ukraine after the nazi-like ultras who came into power promised them "rivers of blood". This threat was confirmed when those ultras burned 2 or 3 buses with Crimean people going home from Kyiv (several dozens of them were either burned alive or shot after they tried to get out). And there was no need for "occupation" because the absolute majority of Crimeans were considering themselves as Russians living in Ukraine. And after the first referendum (to leave Ukraine), since the threats from Ukraine were escalating, there was a second one asking Russia to incorporate it. This gave the Crimeans certain security. And, BTW, there was no shooting during this process. Out of some 20K of the Ukrainian military in Crimea, some 6K+ gladly accepted the offer to join Russian forces, some 6K+ just said "farewell to arms" and the remaining 6K+ were allowed to relocate to the Ukrainian mainland (and many then returned back after the retirement).
Comparing with the GB "occupation" of the Northern Ireland with decades of revolt, acts of terror, thousands killed, etc. this one was thousand times more peaceful.
And as a more recent example, there is a pseudo-state of Kosovo established by NATO where indeed rivers of blood took place.


<<< and used hybrid forces to start a civil conflict in Eastern Ukraine. >>>

Eastern Ukraine is indeed another story than Crimea. But there, again, local people protested to the coup in Kiev when new establishment promised the locals to totally ban the Russian language in the area (and this is what they are doing now across the country). Russia provided some support with knowledgeable mil. advisors, but there was enough population and hardware (and heavy industry) to oppose the new regime. If there were indeed Russian army units involved, the Kiev regime would fall in a week.


<<< The Kerch Strait separates Russia proper from Russian-controlled Crimea and connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. In the aftermath of the annexation, Russia built a bridge across the strait, which Ukraine never agreed to. >>>

True. Moreover, every now and then there are voices in the Ukrainian establishment (not just by mob in the streets) that the bridge should be blown up. Having heard such threats, anyone with brains would try to take certain measures.


<<< On paper, movement in and out of the Sea of Azov for Ukrainian ships is regulated by a treaty signed in 2003 between Ukraine and Russia, which gives free access to vessels from both countries. Since the Crimea bridge was completed earlier this year, Russia has been impeding traffic of commercial vessels bound for the Ukrainian port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and after last week's incident, it has virtually imposed a blockade on it. >>>

What blockade are they talking about? The traffic was indeed disturbed after the incident, but then restored. Look at statistics, e.g. as per https://crimea.ria.ru/society/20181208/1115713548.html (https://crimea.ria.ru/society/20181208/1115713548.html) From April 1 through Dec. 1, 2018 the total of 18 783 vessels passed through the Kerch strait. Among those 18K, 2052 vessels were inspected (1183 were going to Russian ports and 869 - to Ukrainian ones). I don't think the source is lying because the numbers are verifiable...


<<< Given the subsequent exchange of accusations between Ukraine and Russia, it is important to make a number of points clear. Does Ukraine have the right to send gunboats from Odessa to the Sea of Azov as it did in the prelude to the Kerch Strait incident? Yes, it does. >>>

Agree. But the Russian side shall be duly notified and certain rules of behaviour should be obeyed.


<<< Can it test Russia's patience by ignoring demands to get a permit in order to pass through the strait, as these boats did? Sure it can, as per the Russian-Ukrainian 2003 treaty. >>>

Sure, Ukraine can make such tests, but for its own detriment and losses. BTW, Ukraine recently unilaterally withdrew from the main (framework) treaty with Russia (aboiut friendship and cooperation), which the above 2003 treaty is referring to. Thus making the latter juridically negligible. And it (Ukraine) has started internal hearings to cancel all treaties with Russia. So, the treaty is not an argument here anymore. Also, recall that Japan claims 4 small islands back from Russia (lost to SU as a result of the WWII) but de facto they (the Japanese) do not play such tricks/tests.


<<< Should Ukraine protest the arrest of its men and the seizure of its boats, as well as plead with its Western allies to interfere? It absolutely should. >>>

The boats entered the Russian territorial waters (including those existed before 2014), declined to get out and thus were arrested. Normal practice all over the world. I wonder what US or UK would say if they catch a Russian military vessel in their waters, declining to communicate and making hostile maneuvering. And having 2 GRU officers onboard with a written plan of a provocation :-)


<<< Is it ok for Ukraine to exaggerate the significance of this incident and claim an imminent Russian invasion is being prepared? Well maybe, if it helps to repel the aggression in the long run. >>>

Already mad people are getting more and more mad. It's their choice.


<<< The discourse on the Kerch Strait incident seemed fairly straightforward until the evening of that day when Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko summoned his defence council for what felt like a pre-rehearsed session aired live on TV. The martial law he invoked at that meeting would have given him the right to ban political parties and rallies, detain people without a warrant, seize property and close media outlets. It also explicitly bans any kind of elections during the state of emergency. >>>

Agree.


<<< The Kerch incident did not appear to warrant such a drastic measure, especially since nothing like that was introduced at the height of the war in 2014 and 2015, when Ukrainians soldiers were dying by the hundreds, if not thousands, in the battles for Ilovaisk, Debaltseve and Donetsk airport. >>>

True.


<<< Liberal Ukrainian commentators read this announcement as an attempt to tamper with the upcoming presidential elections. With the official start of the campaign just a month away, polls are showing that Poroshenko is set to lose to the firebrand former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. >>>

Yes, and not only to her. He is currently balancing between 3rd and 4th place.


<<< Investigative journalist and MP Serhiy Leshchenko, who has come to represent the spirit of the Maidan Revolution, wrote a scathing op-ed, comparing Poroshenko's martial law with the dictatorial legislation his predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, proposed in the heady days of the Maidan revolution to suppress the protests. In the first lines of his piece, he also mentioned Wag the Dog, a Hollywood film about a US president staging an imaginary war to save himself from electoral defeat. >>>

Being gutless and "ball-less", Yanukovich did NOT impose the martial law at all, and he considers this (his fear to impose it) as his major mistake. The mob started simply hunting for him and he narrow escaped assassination.


<<< As he spoke in the Ukrainian parliament, the Rada, on November 26, Poroshenko was clutching a stack of papers which he claimed contained intelligence data about an imminent large-scale Russian invasion. On many previous occasions, when middle-ranked Ukrainian officials warned about "imminent" attacks, there were few indications of Russia preparing anything and eventually, all of them failed to materialise. >>>

True.


<<< But the top level of Ukrainian leadership crying wolf is something entirely new.>>>

Poroshenko is now indeed in a difficult situation. His political rivals in Ukraine will not hesitate even a second to open a criminal case against him on the next day after he loses his power. And his chances to be re-elected are quite illusive. Thus, unfortunately, we all are waiting for more provocations from his regime in the end of this 30-day period of martial law (i.e. by the end of December). Donbass area should be given special attention.


<<< Ukrainian MPs didn't quite buy this fear mongering. After a heated debate, a compromise was reached, which Leshechenko later described as "face-saving". State of emergency under martial law was introduced to only 10 of Ukraine's 27 regions for 30 days instead of 60, as suggested initially. >>>

Yes, and these regions are those where Poroshenko has a minor support. Good chance to suppress his political rivals there.


<<< This means that it will end before the official start of the presidential campaign at the end of December. Thus Poroshenko will lose the chance to postpone the election and to shorten his rivals' campaign by a month while enjoying exclusive daily access to TV as a leader saving the country from aggression. >>>

But if a new (larger) provocation takes place while the martial law is in place, he can extend it. The first test was successful (though partially), why not to try again. We will see soon.


<<< But even in its diluted form, the state of emergency may serve Poroshenko's purposes. A key feature of his election campaign is the struggle for the creation of a single Ukrainian Orthodox Church, in place of several churches, the largest of them controlled by Moscow. He has succeeded in securing the backing of the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I in Istanbul, who has promised to grant it official canonical status. A few days after the Kerch incident, the Constantinople patriarchate announced that the text of this decision had been agreed upon by its council. But this project can only be completed if property of the church loyal to the Moscow Patriarchate is seized, particularly the highly symbolic super-monasteries known as the lavras. Days before sending vessels to the Kerch Strait, Kiev tested the waters by rescinding the registration of buildings within the Pochayiv Lavra operated by the church loyal to Moscow in the west of the country. On Monday night, news came in about security agents searching Moscow Patriarchate buildings in Zhytomyr and Kiev on dubious grounds. However, it is another, infinitely more famous, monastery whose historical and political importance could easily spark a conflict that would justify the imposition of martial law: The Pechersk Lavra in Kiev is the Mount Zion of Russian Orthodoxy. An attempt to seize it would cause an upheaval in Russia and would force Putin to respond, whether he wants to or not. There is little doubt that contingency plans for such an eventuality are being drawn up in Moscow and preparations are being made on the ground. >>>

Yes, Poroshenko and his men behave as gangsters trying to confiscate and confiscating some church assets. But I do not think that all this noise in the "church domain" will "cause an upheaval" in Russia and result in any military respond from here.

DaveReidUK
10th Dec 2018, 18:43
OK, thank you for taking the time for such a detailed response.

However much of it sounds like it's come straight out of the Kremlin:

the goal was to attempt to break through the Russian border

Crimea was not occupied by anybody. Crimean people made their own decision to leave Ukraine after the nazi-like ultras who came into power promised them "rivers of blood".

You are clearly Sergei Lavrov, incognito, AICMFP. :O

racedo
11th Dec 2018, 11:58
OK, thank you for taking the time for such a detailed response.

However much of it sounds like it's come straight out of the Kremlin:
You are clearly Sergei Lavrov, incognito, AICMFP. :O

What west is fully well aware of is that the people of Crimea chose not to be part of Ukraine.
4 years after the vote there is no movement there to attempt to rejoin.

Strange that as if they loved Ukraine so much they would be rushing to rejoin but there is no such movement.

Would west be happy if there was another vote completely supervised and run by UN ?
Would they accept that as clear self determination of the people ?

A_Van
11th Dec 2018, 17:08
OK, thank you for taking the time for such a detailed response.

My pleasure :)


However much of it sounds like it's come straight out of the Kremlin:

This makes me feel sad :ugh: I do not like most of the guys residing there...


You are clearly Sergei Lavrov, incognito, AICMFP. :O

Oh, no! I am just an ordinary retired AF officer. Russian ministry of foreign affairs is, IMHO, a shameful collection of non-professionals. Lavrov, perhaps, is among of the few in that campus that seem OK (having patience, no hysteria, etc.), though his English is terrible :hmm:

jolihokistix
12th Dec 2018, 00:20
May I add my thanks too. I have a clearer picture now of the Crimea, and how things stand between Russia and the Ukraine, and I hope that those with humour, cool heads and common sense will prevail.

lomapaseo
12th Dec 2018, 03:09
What west is fully well aware of is that the people of Crimea chose not to be part of Ukraine.
4 years after the vote there is no movement there to attempt to rejoin.

Strange that as if they loved Ukraine so much they would be rushing to rejoin but there is no such movement.

Would west be happy if there was another vote completely supervised and run by UN ?
Would they accept that as clear self determination of the people ?

Well back in the mid 1800's we in the rest of the US didn't accept the clear intention of the south and went to war to prove it

grateful_pax
12th Dec 2018, 07:38
Maidan was about one set of rich oligarchs getting rid of others. But hey the Oligarchs have been buying up property in London so all is well.

After Kiev held EU to ransom over Gas a number of years go. A clear decision was reached by Germany / France / NL and others that it would never happen again, hence why Nordstream 2 is being built which avoids any transit issues. US is opposed to this because it sees EU as a market for its own domestically produced LNG, it has been openly saying it for years. Transiting via Ukraine means they can suggest issues to people to reduce transit which would justify US LNG more attractive even though it costs double.

Southstream that would have supplied Bulgaria was stopped after Bulgaria has visits from the well known "peacemaker" Senator John McCain who made it clear that US would penalise Sofia if it continued....

Of course Russia is now building Turkstream which will supply Turkey with Gas and ... Bulgaris will be getting its gas as an extension of this along with Serbia, Hungary and others.

So sad you do it for free
Others get rich doing exactly the same stuff
or do you?

racedo
12th Dec 2018, 21:06
So sad you do it for free
Others get rich doing exactly the same stuff
or do you?

So why not focus on what was posted and not on the poster.

Are you claiming that peace loving democrats are in power in Kiev ?

KelvinD
22nd Dec 2018, 08:19
BBC is today carrying the news that Gavin Williamson is today sabre rattling in Odessa, stating the UK government is "sending a strong message to Russia" by sending a warship to visit Ukraine. The "warship" is HMS Echo, a hydrographic survey vessel. Armed with a pair of 20mm Oerlikons and a Gympy. That will terrify the Russians, won't it? A spot of ridiculous posturing which, to me, shows our government will support the local W.I. as long as they declare themselves to be anti Russian.

Effluent Man
22nd Dec 2018, 08:27
Playing with fire. What happens if Putin decides to ram and board that one? Still I suppose it would be a very good distraction from Brexit.

goofer3
22nd Dec 2018, 08:58
HMS Echo.https://navaltoday.com/2018/12/19/royal-navy-ship-hms-echo-arrives-in-odessa-ukraine/

Sallyann1234
22nd Dec 2018, 15:12
It's time that all concerned accepted Russia's complete control and annexation of the Azov Sea. There is nothing that anyone can do about it.

fitliker
22nd Dec 2018, 16:02
Are the missile factories in Ukraine still selling engines and designs to North Korea and Iran ?
​​​​​​
​​​​​​If the people knew what a huge target was being painted on them by the corrupted illegal arms dealers , they would all move to nuclear free New Zealand

A_Van
22nd Dec 2018, 16:13
It's time that all concerned accepted Russia's complete control and annexation of the Azov Sea. There is nothing that anyone can do about it.

"You have said so" :-) But seriously, nothing changed. Ships can freely go to the Ukraine ports in the Azov obeying general (and well-known) rules. Just "goggled" some statistics: after the provocation and temporal closing of the strait in end Nov. there were some 400 ships in the queue. A week later there were some 150.

It is interesting to see how Poroshenko will behave in the coming days because the martial law imposed by him (and cut twice by the parliament) will expire on 25 or 26 of Dec. There were several options and specific plans regarding the next provocation that would allow him to extend the martial law. The first one implied offensive along the Azov sea shorline. 5K troops were concentrated there with some dozen of tanks, MLRS, etc. The second direction was in the north where some 20K troops and 100+ tanks were getting ready. In both cases the starting point would be blowing up some infrastructure objects (e.g. chemical plants) with immediate blaming the rebels and accusing them in war crimes against the civilians. It worked in Syria, thus why not to parrot this tactics here. But because of poor information security, these plans became immediately known by the separatists and published with all the details.

No surprise that after that the Ukrainian establishment said that there were no such plans and, conversely, they knew about the separatists' plans to break the ceasefire regime.Then there was an open appeal by the Ukrainian state security secretary (Turchinov) to the West (US, UK, Germany, etc.) to join the next order of the Ukrainian navy ships purposed to repeat the previous attempt to pass the Kerch strait with no notice and ignoring other traffic. Have not heard yet of positive replies from any...

In parallel, there was an event that was given not so much attention, but could be dramatic to Poroshenko. Kurt Walker, the US special representative for Ukraine during his recent visit (a week or two ago) and talks with various Ukrainian politicians expressed his discontent with the risk of failure of the election process (of the Ukrainian president), which was the only goal of Poroshenko with his martial law. This puts Petro in a difficult situation. On one hand, his overseas bosses encourage him to "tease the bear every now and then" with provocations like the previous one, and on the other hand they prefer to make Ukraine look "democratic" with no turbulence on the upcoming (March '19) elections.Poroshenko's opponents in the Ukrainian parliament publicly describe his situation as "a rat in the corner". Indeed, if he is not elected, he will be thrown to the wolves. In such a situation it's difficult to predict his moves...Anyway, we will probably see in a few days which strategy he selects.

Sallyann1234
22nd Dec 2018, 16:25
A_Van, I've no interest in arguing who is right or wrong, only the result.

The simple fact is that Russia has control of the Kerch Strait, and the vessels that pass through now do so only because you permit them. That suits you at the moment, but permission can be withdrawn at any time. There's even a handy tanker available to block the passage when desired. No-one, not even the US, is going to attempt to crash through.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/670x400/blockstrait1_fd5446ad9bef0e63cf9e3b0f138faea926528ba4.jpg

A_Van
22nd Dec 2018, 16:34
A_Van, I've no interest in arguing who is right or wrong, only the result.
The simple fact is that Russia has control of the Kerch Strait, and the vessels that pass through now do so only because you permit them. That suits you at the moment, but permission can be withdrawn at any time. There's even a handy tanker available to block the passage when desired.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/670x400/blockstrait1_fd5446ad9bef0e63cf9e3b0f138faea926528ba4.jpg

Yes, I agree that you described the fact correctly. Except the words "you permit" as I have nothing to do with the current establishment.
But permission is given in the absolute majority of the cases. It's like the transit visa. If I travel to Ireland through London I have to get a UK transit visa and pass thru all the airport securities, etc. But if I am doing nothing wrong, the risk of being bounced back is low.

Sallyann1234
22nd Dec 2018, 16:58
I'm happy to acknowledge that you are not personally responsible. :O
And on second thoughts, I shouldn't have ruled out the US barging through, while the lunatic Trump is in charge.

fitliker
22nd Dec 2018, 23:48
Need more than a barge to get through those waters .
Taking ground is easier than holding on to it .
The Argie Bargie took a lot of land from Farmers and Sheep in the Falklands, but we're unable to hold it against a fighting force of well trained fighting soldiers.
Nobody could hold that bridge for very long .
I would put the life expectancy of any who tried in hours and they might consider it a victory if they survived days .
You might be able barge through once .

Fortunately the Article 5 will not apply if Kiev attempts something stupid .

flash8
25th Dec 2018, 13:33
In parallel, there was an event that was given not so much attention, but could be dramatic to Poroshenko. Kurt Walker, the US special representative for Ukraine during his recent visit (a week or two ago) and talks with various Ukrainian politicians expressed his discontent with the risk of failure of the election process (of the Ukrainian president), which was the only goal of Poroshenko with his martial law. It was predicted some years ago that the US would lose control of Willy Wonka, whose narrative diverges significantly from Washington. I commend the restraint of Putin as Mr Wonka seems determined to start a war. As for democracy in the Ukraine, I've lived just outside of Odessa (Nikolaev) for three months a few years ago, as with Odessa (and Ukraine) rule of law in practice doesn't exist, the only king is the US Dollar (and then only in pristine condition).

Lonewolf_50
26th Dec 2018, 03:33
the only king is the US Dollar (and then only in pristine condition). Oddly enough, in the Soviet Union, aka the Worker's Paradise, hard currency like the US Dollar was the king, if you knew the right people and they had what you needed.
To piss on the Ukranians over valuing hard currency is risible.
I've been in a lot of 3rd world countries where the same is true .. wait, sorry, that includes Italy, but south of Rome it's a bit 3rd world, if you listen to the cnuts in Milan. :p

Nervous SLF
26th Dec 2018, 03:50
What gets me really annoyed is the fact that,in alphabetical order, Russian and the U.S.A. leaders all
seem to think that it's their right to not only risk the lives of their own subjects but also the rest of the World.
There is all this talk about madmen civilians who murder other civilians using guns but what about those
madmen who have access to nuclear bombs. They are millions times worse.

grateful_pax
26th Dec 2018, 09:27
Are the missile factories in Ukraine still selling engines and designs to North Korea and Iran ?
​​​​​​
If the people knew what a huge target was being painted on them by the corrupted illegal arms dealers , they would all move to nuclear free New Zealand
No, in this part of multiverse Ukrainian missile factories are working with Northtrop Grumman for 3 years already

Kremlin has real problems maintaining their Ukraininan-made SS-18... that's why you read that bullshit in NY times
that's a fact

OTOH, which country has an active railroad connection with NK and plenty of missile factories/designs/etc? oops, that's russia

What would be your next question? perhaps taliban sponsorship? oops, that also russia...

and don't forget that Corbyn's best friends from Hezbollah are always welcomed in moscow...

grateful_pax
26th Dec 2018, 09:31
So why not focus on what was posted and not on the poster.

Are you claiming that peace loving democrats are in power in Kiev ?

I would answer your question as soon as you would point me to a region of russia occupied by Ukrainian armed forces
I would also accept a sample of an international treaty violated by Ukraine.

A_Van
26th Dec 2018, 13:11
No, in this part of multiverse Ukrainian missile factories are working with Northtrop Grumman for 3 years already

And so what? This means nothing. Russia is providing (since 2000) RD-180 rocket engines to power the US Atlas launchers (only this year 11 engines were supplied). Does it mean that Energomash is controlled by the US? Tell it to people in Khimki :)

Kremlin has real problems maintaining their Ukraininan-made SS-18...

No problems at all with P-36M and -M2. They are progressively "written off" when their lifetime is expiring. There are way more effective "pencils" of new generations. BTW, P-36 were also used to launch civil payloads (21 launch).

that's why you read that bullshit in NY times
that's a fact ...

NYT published their materials when the Ukraine government (facing obvious facts) had confirmed that there was both "brain drain" and leak of hardware. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html
Tons of publications on this matter orininated from Ukraine, you probably read them.

OTOH, which country has an active railroad connection with NK and plenty of missile factories/designs/etc? oops, that's russia ...
Proof links, please. Nowadays such moves cannot be hidden from satellites, intelligence, etc. And, BTW, it's China, in first instance, concerning the border and support of the NK regime. But even they were not caught with this...

What would be your next question? perhaps taliban sponsorship? ...
Russia's contacts with taliban are similar to those of the US similar services. And this is because the US efforts to establish and maintain current regime in Afghanistan failed and taliban is now controlling a significant part of the country.

You, guys, should start really working hard instead of complaining about "Russian aggression", which is, in reality, your internal conflict (started as a civil war, which, I hope, will not resume).
Some 15-20 percent of the population left the country not because of "aggression", but because of mad economical policy. My former friends in Kyiv can now be found in Geneva, Berlin, Scotland (but more in Russia, BTW).

weemonkey
26th Dec 2018, 13:42
Are the missile factories in Ukraine still selling engines and designs to North Korea and Iran ?
​​​​​​
​​​​​​If the people knew what a huge target was being painted on them by the corrupted illegal arms dealers , they would all move to nuclear free New Zealand

Didn't you ever watch the movie "Pacific Rim"?

flash8
26th Dec 2018, 18:51
Oddly enough, in the Soviet Union, aka the Worker's Paradise, hard currency like the US Dollar was the king, if you knew the right people and they had what you needed.
To piss on the Ukranians over valuing hard currency is risible.
I've been in a lot of 3rd world countries where the same is true .. wait, sorry, that includes Italy, but south of Rome it's a bit 3rd world, if you listen to the cnuts in Milan. :p
You miss my point, valuing so called hard currency is not the issue (unless its Scottish notes as I found to my amazement, refusing to take them!) but the fact that rule of law is controlled by how much you are willing to pay. It wasn't unusual for me to have to pay $100 (1 x Bill) to extract myself from situations that were down to my foolish inebriation... but you live and learn.