BB solves JT 610 crash

[Dora-9]

BB, after an exhaustive investigation of all the facts, states of NineMSN today that it was due "to lack of crew training".

An here I was thinking that GT was the only idiot to rush into print professing to know the cause of an accident within minutes. I thought BB's comments regarding MH 370 were credible, but he's losing the plot now. Anything to appear in print?

[Three Wire]

The man was never a QFI nor a Training Captain.

[Dora-9]

I thought he was a CC with Emirates on the B777 - which actually means he should know better than to rush into print.

[stormfury]

Yep, it’s in print now. There’s some more ‘gems’ he’s offered as to the cause and how to prevent a similar accident.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/2018/10/30/08/40/lion-air-crash-flight-610-update-why-does-a-new-boeing-737-crash

[dr dre]

"The problem with these budgets airlines is that unlike Qantas, Emirates and everyone else, the pilots get in the flight simulator every six months and practice these things.

"But if these guys are running on a low budget, they aren’t getting their simulator training."

I could understand if he was critiquing the quality of their training or the standards being maintained by Indonesian carriers but I wouldn’t have any doubt they actually complete the minimum recurrent sim training as required by the regulator.

[gordonfvckingramsay]

From Wikipedia:Incidents and accidents

On 14 January 2002, Lion Air Flight 386, a Boeing 737-200 crashed after trying to take-off with an incorrect flap configuration at Sultan Syarif Kasim II International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultan_Syarif_Kasim_II_International_Airport). Everyone on board survived but the aircraft was written off[28] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-28).
On 30 November 2004, Lion Air Flight 538 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_538), a McDonnell Douglas MD-82 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_MD-82), crashed in Surakarta (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surakarta) with registration PK-LMN (c/n 49189); 25 people died.[29] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-Lion_Air_Accident_2004-29)
On 4 March 2006, Lion Air Flight 8987, a McDonnell Douglas MD-82 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_MD-82), crashed after landing at Juanda International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juanda_International_Airport).[30] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-asn1-30) Reverse thrust was used during landing, although the left thrust reverser was stated to be out of service.[30] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-asn1-30) This caused the aircraft to veer to the right and skid off the runway, coming to rest about 7,000 feet (2,100 m) from the approach end of the runway.[30] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-asn1-30) There were no fatalities, but the aircraft was badly damaged[30] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-asn1-30) and later written off.[31] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-31)
On 24 December 2006, Lion Air Flight 792, a Boeing 737-400 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_Classic), landed with an incorrect flap configuration and was not aligned with the runway.[32] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-asn2-32) The plane landed hard and skidded along the runway causing the right main landing gear to detach, the left gear to protrude through the wing and some of the aircraft fuselage to be wrinkled.[32] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-asn2-32) There were no fatalities, but the aircraft was written off (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Write-off).[32] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-asn2-32)
On 23 February 2009, Lion Air Flight 972, a McDonnell Douglas MD-82 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_MD-82) landed without the nose gear at Hang Nadim International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hang_Nadim_International_Airport), Batam.
On 9 March 2009, Lion Air Flight 793, a McDonnell Douglas MD-90-30 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_MD-90-30) (registration PK-LIL) ran off the runway at Soekarno–Hatta International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soekarno%E2%80%93Hatta_International_Airport). No-one was injured.[33] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-33)
On 2 November 2010, Lion Air Flight 712, a Boeing 737-400 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_Classic) (registration PK-LIQ) overran the runway on landing at Supadio Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supadio_Airport), Pontianak (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontianak,_Indonesia), coming to rest on its belly and sustaining damage to its nose gear. All 174 passengers and crew evacuated by the emergency slides, with few injuries.[34] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-AH432fa0b7-34)
On 13 April 2013, Lion Air Flight 904 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_904), a Boeing 737-800 (registration PK-LKS; c/n 38728) from Bandung to Denpasar with 108 people on board, crashed into the water near Denpasar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ngurah_Rai_International_Airport)/Bali (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bali) while attempting to land. The aircraft’s fuselage broke into two parts.[35] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-904AVHerald-35) While Indonesian officials reported the aircraft crashed short of the runway,[35] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-904AVHerald-35) reporters and photographers from Reuters and the Associated Press indicated that the plane overshot the runway.[36] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-904Reuters-1-36)
[37] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-904APPhoto-37) All passengers and crew were evacuated from the aircraft and there were no fatalities.[35] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-904AVHerald-35)
On 6 August 2013, Lion Air Flight 892, a Boeing 737-800 (registration PK-LKH; c/n 37297) from Makassar to Gorontalo with 117 passengers and crew on board, hit a cow while landing at Jalaluddin Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jalaluddin_Airport) and veered off the runway. There were no injuries.[38] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-38)
On 1 February 2014, Lion Air Flight 361, a Boeing 737-900ER (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_Next_Generation#737-900ER) (registration PK-LFH; c/n 35710), from Balikpapan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balikpapan) Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultan_Aji_Muhammad_Sulaiman_Airport) to Ngurah Rai International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ngurah_Rai_International_Airport) in Denpasar/Bali (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denpasar) via Juanda International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juanda_International_Airport) in Surabaya (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surabaya), with 222 passengers and crew on board, landed hard and bounced four times on the runway, causing a tail strike and substantial damage to the plane. There were no fatalities, but two passengers were seriously injured and three others had minor injuries.[39] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-JT361-39)
On 20 February 2016, Lion Air Flight 263 from Balikpapan Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultan_Aji_Muhammad_Sulaiman_Airport) to Juanda International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juanda_International_Airport) in Surabaya overran the runway on landing, with no injuries.[40] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-40) The National Transportation Safety Committee (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Transportation_Safety_Committee) investigation into the incident found that failures in crew resource management (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_resource_management) led to improper landing procedures, and recommended that Indonesian airlines improve pilot training.[41] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-41)
On 2 April 2017, about 300 litres [42] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-42) of fuel spilled on the tarmac at Juanda International Airport (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juanda_International_Airport) in Surabaya. Pictures taken by passengers on board showed fuel pouring out of one of the aircraft's wings.[43] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-43) Shortly after, all passengers were evacuated and the plane was grounded for further investigation. No casualties were reported. That same day a representative from Lion Air was summoned by the Indonesian Transport Ministry to clarify the incident. An early statement by a Lion Air representative said that the leak was caused by a non-functioning safety valve and overflow detector.[44] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-44)
On 29 April 2018, Lion Air Flight 892, a 737-800 (registration PK-LOO), made a runway excursion at Jalaluddin Airport after landing under heavy rain conditions, resulting in the main nose gear to collapse. There were no fatalities.
On 29 October 2018, Lion Air Flight 610 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610), a 737 MAX 8 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX), crashed in the Java Sea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Java_Sea) 13 minutes after takeoff from Jakarta, with all 189 passengers and crew onboard missing, presumed dead.[45] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air#cite_note-45)


He's shot from the hip for sure, but he could also be forgiven for thinking what he thinks.

189 dead, the ticket must have been EXTREMELY cheap!

[LeadSled]

Folks,
There is a high probability he is correct.
Tootle pip!!

[Centaurus]

Folks,
There is a high probability he is correct.
I thought that BB gave an excellent summation of the situation given the information published so far. He is a highly experienced and current pilot on jet transport types and knows what he is talking about.

[Weapons Grade]

"current pilot on jet transport types" - okay, I'll ask the obvious: "What types of jet transport category aircraft is Mr Byron Bailey current on?; and a supplementary, "What CAR216 organisation is he permitted to fly under?"

Reading his comments in the above URL, he did fail to mention that even the major airlines, can have an accident. EK's B777 in DXB attempting a simple go-around, does come to mind.

[aussie1234]

He was on Sky news talking to David Speers saying “they were probably at 25000 so it was it was probably catastrophic,” if I were to be interviewed I would have looked at Flight Radar 24 first and also had a look at Pprune to see if someone had more information, (I already had so as soon as he said it I didn’t give him much credibility) I was less than impressed with the aviation expert Sky chose to talk to.

[StudentInDebt]

Reading his comments in the above URL, he did fail to mention that even the major airlines, can have an accident. EK's B777 in DXB attempting a simple go-around, does come to mind.And on the subject of runway excursions......

[gulliBell]

There is a high probability he is correct.


Yeah, probably. Maybe somebody forgot to remove the pitot tube covers. Maybe the ADC was giving some whacky airspeed indicators. More likely it will be something simple that has ended up causing mass confusion in the cockpit. I'd be very surprised if there was anything mechanically wrong with the aircraft to cause the crash. Wait and see what the CVR reveals.

[mrdeux]

He is a highly experienced and current pilot on jet transport types and knows what he is talking about.

Lots of us fall into that category, but it doesn’t mean we know what happened.

[hawkerxp]

I don’t really agree with his conclusions but from experience he has a point about the safety culture.

I have personally witnessed so many dumb things done by these guys here in SEA like accepting 15 knot tail wind departures on wet runways, requesting a RNP approach in an aircraft not certified for it, through to intersection departures at night on wet runways.

The whole system in Indonesia needs overhauling, when the tower will ask you what wind you need to accept the runway they are using you know there is a problem.

I have the photos and videos if anyone is interested too.

[TBM-Legend]

Bales is current on the Falcon 900 and other corporate jets and flies internationally and domestically FYI

[Bula]

kawkerxp, are you saying they illegally accepted those conditions against FCOM, or are you saying they’ve accepted those conditions at limiting weights and if so how do you know they were limiting?

If it’s within limitations, and they have the performance to do so, I don’t see the issue unless being performance limited at TOGA with other options available.

[hawkerxp]

Bula, I’m not sure on the limitations for that particular aircraft but it was pretty silly in my opinion when there is a safer option.

When the tower asked us what we needed the wind to be for take off they subsequently changed their read out even though the wind sock doesn’t lie.

All I am saying is that when you have had a few bingles it might be advisable to go with the conservative options... take for example the airlines that are last to stop and first to fly after the number of volcanic eruptions, do they have better information? Or do they just have a higher risk tolerance? I don’t know the answer but the numbers don’t lie.

[Dora-9]

Lead Sled & Centaurus - I think he's PROBABLY correct too, but to come out and declare that you know the cause within a few hours is simply "off". I'm at least as qualified as BB, though not now current (my last Bizjet, same as what BB flies) was five years ago, and I've long learned to keep my powder dry until all the facts are out.

[Bula]

As long as the performance figures allow for it, I would argue a higher V speed with lower thrust using the into wind can be as safe as a lower V speed and higher thrust setting with a tailwind.

I guess safety and buffers are an individual preference rather than a legal one.

Sad events none the less.

[hawkerxp]

History has shown many times that relying purely on the legal requirements doesn’t always provide for the safest outcome.

Safety should be the first thing that is considered and ingrained in everything that we do as mere mortals.

[Bula]

Absolutely, however a few examples of what “they” did are not necessarily safer. Though we can judge and discriminate about the decisions made, the only people that truly know how close the edge they really are are those in the front seats, and those with the value of hindsight.

To say everything we do as mortals should be safety first would be akin to never getting off the ground in the first place. Aviation as a system is a managed risk. Crossing the road is a managed risk. Telling your wife to calm down, a mismanaged risk.

Following the rules and legal requirements are purely for the strick following of the uninformed , and for the guidance of wise men. I believe that is what you are getting at. As with a lot of these accidents, it’s the decision making that lets the system down.

[LeadSled]

"current pilot on jet transport types" - okay, I'll ask the obvious: "What types of jet transport category aircraft is Mr Byron Bailey current on?; and a supplementary, "What CAR216 organisation is he permitted to fly under?"


Weapons Grade,
Apart from a desire to denigrate or otherwise belittle the person in question, what is the point of your questions.

If you read the Australian at all, you would probably know exactly what he is flying, transport category aircraft, and a few others to boot.

As for "CAR 216" , are you trying to say that being on a list of pilots on an Australian AOC is a pre-requisite for having a valid opinion?? Or being on such a list makes your opinion have greater weight?? What are you trying to say?? I know well pilots on AOC lists that are as thick as two short planks.

The guy is highly experienced, over a broad aviation spectrum, is far more knowledgeable than many pilots I know, and is highly articulate.

Perhaps it is these attributes that upset you?? Tall poppy cutter??

Tootle pip!!

PS: I am assuming you mean CAR 206?

[Derfred]

If the airline has a culture of making the wind fit the performance, that's ignoring the rule-book and accepting reduced safety margins to achieve a desired commercial outcome.

Following the rules and legal requirements are purely for the strick following of the uninformed , and for the guidance of wise men.


I'm sure everyone here has broken rules. Can we conclude that we are all wise men?

You see, the trouble starts when the fools witness the wise men breaking the rules, and assume they can get away with it too. When such behaviour is ignored, or even rewarded by management (for looking after the bottom line, and keeping the show on the road), this evolves into a complacent or dangerous culture, and eventually someone ends up dead.

Most rule books will contain some kind of "out" clause, which is designed to be used when you are satisfied that following the rules will lead to adverse safety. And if you can satisfy that test, and are confident you can defend the decision later, then you aren't breaking the rules. But cost or convenience does not come into this decision.

Of course, a wise man would use his wisdom to try to avoid getting into such situations in the first place. A good start might be to not apply for a job at such an airline, but of course, we don't all have that luxury. Leaving the ground knowingly in breach of performance calculations is neither legal nor safe, and there is a perfectly safe alternative option.

I once thought I was wise, but later realised it was a rather foolish assumption. It's a good goal though. Trying to fly safely and legally, day in, day out, is the wisest thing I've been able to come up with.

But the big question of course is, do airlines such as this one have the culture, the regulatory support, the resources and the training to ensure their pilots can do and are doing the same? (And Maintenance?)

[wondrousbitofrough]

BB... Bronwyn Bishop?

[MickG0105]

"current pilot on jet transport types" - okay, I'll ask the obvious: "What types of jet transport category aircraft is Mr Byron Bailey current on?; and a supplementary, "What CAR216 organisation is he permitted to fly under?"

Reading his comments in the above URL, he did fail to mention that even the major airlines, can have an accident. EK's B777 in DXB attempting a simple go-around, does come to mind.

Funny you mention the EK521 attempted go around with idle thrust. Just six days after the prang and weeks before even the preliminary report had been released BB, who of course flew for Emirates, declared that one was an 'accident waiting to happen' and that 'It was not the fault of the pilots, the airline or Boeing ...'. A bit like that famous Rumsfeldian 'stuff' apparently this one just, you know, 'happened'.

Binger tried to make out that

... on a go-around, all the pilot does is click the TOGA switches, pull back on the control column to raise the nose and — when the other pilot, after observing positive climb, announces it — calls “gear up” and away we go!

But for EK521 away we didn't!

Having clearly misstated the Go–Around and Missed Approach Procedure (which specifically calls for both PF and PM to verify that the thrust increases and for the PM to verify that the thrust is sufficient for the go-around or adjust as needed) when pressed on why he had deliberately misrepresented what the crew should have done he responded;

... we have an Australian co pilot and part of the intent is to help him. The Captain was an Emirati.

[International Trader]

To go on TV ( in uniform) and to blame fellow aviators without getting the facts first is just poor form.
He may be right but, those pilots had families ,friends and deserve better from a professional pilot on TV. A forum ,such as this, is the place for conjecture.
Professionalism and respect for aviators that maybe have not had the luck of others or maybe still have a way to go in their careers would compel one to keep silent.
Don't know if it has been mentioned already but, both the carriers that he held up as model operators have had issues where pilot error and /or cost saving practices have cast a permanent shadow on them. Now these carriers had all the simulator training possible with large amounts of cash and (supposedly) top flight instructors. So what is his reasoning for those issues? Must be pilot error due lack of training and cost saving ( low..er cost airlines) or would he suggest poor quality pilots. Can't be the aircraft because they all have new ones.
I think that if this fellow had more experience, he would know that new types ( and new variants of existing types) do have issues at introduction. I have experienced this during introduction of types into a few airlines that I worked for.

[Dora-9]

Lead Sled:

The guy is highly experienced, over a broad aviation spectrum, is far more knowledgeable than many pilots I know, and is highly articulate.

Deliberately or otherwise, you're missing the point. We all know his qualifications (we're told often enough) and he does indeed write well, but I'm not even sure about the "more knowledgeable" bit (some of his comments about the B777, when discussing MH370, are open to debate). But isn't it arrogance and just bad form to get up there and pontificate publicly, wearing his four gold bars and all, about the cause of the accident when he can't possibly know all of the facts? I suspect (sadly) that he may well be right, but where's the professionalism and respect here? Despite his greater qualifications (no, sorry, at least he's got qualifications), doesn't rushing into print in the immediate aftermath place him in the same category as the much lampooned GT?

And, in today's "Australian", a simply amazing quote from BB:

"This suggests to me that the captain panicked..."

How the hell does he know this, considering they've yet to even recover the CVR? Or did BB swim down there and recover it himself? This comment is insultingly derogatory to a fellow pilot, offensive to the entire proffession and, I suspect, bordering on the slanderous.

[AerialPerspective]

I could understand if he was critiquing the quality of their training or the standards being maintained by Indonesian carriers but I wouldn’t have any doubt they actually complete the minimum recurrent sim training as required by the regulator.



You might be wrong about that...

[LeadSled]

Folks,
Speaking of GT, how does his Airline ratings rate Lion Air and its offshoots?
Tootle pip!!

[Dora-9]

Good one LeadSled - I fell about laughing at this. A deafening silence from the west, isn't there?

[Trevor the lover]

Silence from the West?? Nope, the bag chuckin' boofnut with the square head has been on the box pontificating. Channel 7.

[Global Aviator]

Dora how can you say he writes well? Did you read his article on speed warnings.

Nobody has the facts at this point in time, yes we all have our gut feelings with industry knowledge but why oh why go so public, is it a need for recognition. It’s sensationalist reporting by an ‘expert’ at best.

Stick to the facts, it’s a high profile crash and I am sure Boeing will see to it the proper result.

RIP all on board.

Everyday is precious.

[LeadSled]

Dora-9,
How BB presents himself publicly is a matter from him, that it might be different to how you or I might handle it is not, in my mind, a criticism if him.

And a far more modest stance by many pilots is appropriate, as they have so much to be very modest about!

And, after all, it is the popular media, and, as Kerry Packer said, many years ago: " You can't underestimate the intelligence of the viewing public".

The "viewing public" can count to four and know what it means, just like the viewing public knows: "that CASA regulations stop accidents and keep Australian aviation the safest in the world".

Tootle pip!!

PS: That last quote comes from a question in a CASA public opinion poll many years ago. Needless to say, the poll found, among other things, that "the Australian public" was in favour of more "aviation safety regulations" to keep the Australian public safe from aviation.

[Dora-9]

LeadSled:

But I know from reading all your postings that you wouldn't represent yourself like this either. It's common decency, respect, sympathy and/or just not wanting to get your name in print until you're sure of your facts - maybe we're just showing our age?

I find a photo of the captain, with the accompanying text claiming he panicked, with this allegation unsupported by anything representing a fact, deeply offensive.

He's at it again today, claiming amongst other things, that all Boeing acceptances are completed by the customer (he's basing this on his EK B777 experience I assume). That's not right - certainly a significant number of B737 acceptances, i.e. acceptance test flight(s), are completed by Boeing alone. The customer turns up and simply take their aeroplane away. He also seems critical of a Mayday being declared in the first three minutes of the doomed flight - how the hell can he possibly know - right now - what was going on on that flight deck????

PM sent (not about this subject).

Cheers!

[Capn Bloggs]

Leddie, you're defending the indefensible.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

Between Byron and Geoffrey why do we need the ATSB? They certainly get the job done a lot faster.

[FL11967]

Between Byron and Geoffrey why do we need the ATSB? They certainly get the job done a lot faster.

Add Neil Hansford and we can close down ATSB and CASA ....

[lucille]

kawkerxp, are you saying they illegally accepted those conditions against FCOM, or are you saying they’ve accepted those conditions at limiting weights and if so how do you know they were limiting?

If it’s within limitations, and they have the performance to do so, I don’t see the issue unless being performance limited at TOGA with other options available.

I stand corrected, but I don’t know of any aircraft with a tailwind limitation of greater than 10 knots. This is because that’s all they test fly it to,

Thus a TW of 15 knots will in all likelihood exceed the published limitations.

[Bula]

Can’t speak for other types, Airbus A320/21 can have a 15 TW limit on landing if you pay for it.

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

I stand corrected, but I don’t know of any aircraft with a tailwind limitation of greater than 10 knots. This is because that’s all they test fly it to,

Thus a TW of 15 knots will in all likelihood exceed the published limitations.

The A330 has a 15kt tailwind limitation for takeoff and landing. So did the 767 (at least the GE-engined ones). Probably plenty more that I don’t know about or have forgotten.

[coaldemon]

All Boeings have a 15 kt tailwind limit if you pay for it. That is what they are certified to ...Along with a whole lot of other things if you want to pay.

[dodo whirlygig]

I was just wondering, after it was brought to my attention, of peoples opinions of an airline chairman appearing on national TV (and where that person was clearly identified in his role as the chairman of a specific airline) giving an opinion following Lion's fatal crash.

Was it appropriate/inappropriate, professional/unprofessional? I've an open mind and am yet to decide but am curious as to what others think.

[DaveReidUK]

I was just wondering, after it was brought to my attention, of peoples opinions of an airline chairman appearing on national TV (and where that person was clearly identified in his role as the chairman of a specific airline) giving an opinion following Lion's fatal crash.

Was it appropriate/inappropriate, professional/unprofessional? I've an open mind and am yet to decide but am curious as to what others think.

If you were to tell us who it was, and on what station, we could give you an informed opinion.

[dodo whirlygig]

No, it's not about attacking the man but, rather, playing the ball.

I'm interested, as a principle, whether it is wise or otherwise for any airline chairman to make comments on such a situation at another airline. Not comments espousing condolences but in generality about standards and regulatory oversight. As an independent commentator, yes, but as a chairman linked to a specific airline I'm left wondering.

[hans brinker]

I stand corrected, but I don’t know of any aircraft with a tailwind limitation of greater than 10 knots. This is because that’s all they test fly it to,

Thus a TW of 15 knots will in all likelihood exceed the published limitations.

dash 8 you could buy 20 kts tailwind green pages...

[hans brinker]

BB might be right in his conclusions, but it was absolutely indefensible what he did. The smug and condescending attitude alone would be enough, wearing a uniform while not on duty, unbelievable.

[PoppaJo]

Here we go. The corruption is well underway already.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/lion-air-crash-searchers-lose-ping-from-cockpit-voice-recorder-ng-b881011824z

[hawkerxp]

So now it is revealed it had the airspeed issue on the few previous flights according to the flight data recorder.

This is huge if true and gives an insight into the safety culture of the airline, the previous crews either didn’t realise the airspeed indication was wrong or they did and didn’t report it or they reported it and nothing was done.

I really feel for Boeing as they are copping allot of the heat but at what point is it the operators responsibility.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/lion-air-jet-had-damaged-airspeed-indicator-last-four-flights-10899664

[machtuk]

Aircraft makers can't make the perfect plane but they can put in place systems & procedures to give the pilot/s a fighting chance when things of importance go haywire!
It's the events after the initial problem (most likely critical flight parameter indications) that will need very careful review. The AF447 is the perfect Eg of events that destroyed the plane & lives of many when in actual fact there was no need for it to end like that!
Hope they get to the bottom of this terrible event & everyone can learn something!

[Going Boeing]

It looks like BB didn’t solve it.Boeing nearing 737 Max fleet bulletin on AoA warning after Lion Air crash

This is a breaking story and will be updated.

Boeing will issue a service bulletin to 737 Max operators worldwide warning operators that the jet’s angle of attack sensor can produce erroneous indications causing the single-aisle jet to enter an aggressive dive, according to a senior industry official familiar with the action.

The bulletin comes after a newly-delivered Lion Air 737 Max crashed off the coast of Indonesia on October 29, killing all aboard. The bulletin is expected to say that Indonesian air safety officials have said that Lion Air flight 610 experienced erroneous angle of attack input.

According to the official familiar with the bulletin, Boeing warns operators that the angle of attack issue can occur during only manual flight. The erroneous AOA input can pitch the aircraft’s stabilizer trim down for up to 10 seconds as a time.

The plane maker is expected to caution pilots to use the electric stabilizer trim to reverse the downward stabilizer trim, but the nose-over can begin again five seconds after those switches are released, the official added.

The repeated uncommanded nose down action can be stopped by deactivating the stabilizer trim system, according to the official. Boeing warns that the stabilizer system can reach its full downward position if not counteracted by pilot trimming the aircraft and disconnecting the stabilizer trim system.

The service bulletin is likely to be the prelude to a formal airworthiness directive from the Federal Aviation Administration.

Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The bulletin is expected to be issued as early as Wednesday morning, according to Bloomberg News, which first reported (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-07/boeing-is-said-close-to-issuing-safety-bulletin-on-737-max-jets?srnd=premium)the impending operator notification.

[Rated De]

"It boils down to me to lack of training on the part of the pilots," Australian aviation expert and former Emirates pilot Captain Byron Bailey said today.Captain Bailey, who has more than 45 years experience flying, says when the plane landed in Jakarta, the airline would have likely replaced the malfunctioning air data computer and deemed the problem solved."They probably got airborne again but this captain didn't handle it so well," Captain Bailey said.Despite the pilot, Indian national Bhavye Suneja, and his co-pilot having 6000 and 5000 flight hours respectively, Captain Bailey believes the crash could have been avoided and the pilots were only "experienced on paper".

With the 'quality' of journalism the MSM exhibits extends itself to the piloting profession, that is a new low.
If anyone knows this idiot Bailey, perhaps he can exhibit his 'professionalism' and issue an immediate and complete retraction, with a full apology.

You told me when something's bothering you and you're too damn stupid to know what to do, just keep your fool mouth shut. At least that way, you won't make things worse.

Attributed to Homer Simpson

[jack red]

Geoff Thomas & Byron Bailey.................................what a team:D

[stormfury]

BB and GT - ‘so much winning’.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/lion-air-crash-boeing-withheld-information-on737-max-planes-wsj-says.html

[Rated De]

BB and GT - ‘so much winning’.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/lion-air-crash-boeing-withheld-information-on737-max-planes-wsj-says.html

I hope those two imbeciles browse these pages.
What they both said was a disgrace. Any shred of professional integrity would see these village idiots offer a complete and sincere apology with an offer to pay restitution.
They have slandered deceased individuals which the facts may show were horribly ill prepared.

One sincerely hopes that teams of lawyers litigate Boeing, the FAA and indeed these two classless buffoons.

[KRUSTY 34]

Am I honestly reading this correctly.

A failure of ADC data leads to autopilot disconnect and crew reversion to manual flight. So far so good. Then a secondary failure (or a symptom of the first) leads to erroneous AOA data being sent to the flight control system, even in manual flight mode!?

The crew are now faced with a full nose down trim at low altitude whilst barely commencing the failure management of the initial problem.

Am I missing something?

Why aren’t all 737 Max 8/9’s sitting on the ground until this is resolved?

[Rated De]

Am I honestly reading this correctly.

A failure of ADC data leads to autopilot disconnect and crew reversion to manual flight. So far so good. Then a secondary failure (or a symptom of the first) leads to erroneous AOA data being sent to the flight control system, even in manual flight mode!?

The crew are now faced with a full nose down trim at low altitude whilst barely commencing the failure management of the initial problem.

Am I missing something?

Why aren’t all 737 Max 8/9’s sitting on the ground until this is resolved?

As a listed entity, there are commercial impacts.
The airlines flying this junk are listed entities and there is commercial impact.
The regulator is captured to ensure there is no commercial impact.

[KRUSTY 34]

As a listed entity, there are commercial impacts.
The airlines flying this junk are listed entities and there is commercial impact.
The regulator is captured to ensure there is no commercial impact.

That’s how it appears to me as well mate.

[Mach E Avelli]

Advice to BB. Don't be so quick to shoot your bolt with headline-grabbing rubbish about things of which - unless you have the FDR readouts - you could have no possible knowledge. Some of us in the industry see your credibility descending to that of GT, the erstwhile bag-snatcher and PPL. Not a good look for an ex-airline jock.
And lose the wanky uniform unless actually on flying duty..

[greenfields]

Simple. Everyone who is genuinely a pilot inundate his inbox Captain Byron Bailey - Aviation Expert (http://www.captainbyronbailey.com/contact) in a professional and respectful manner, letting him know just how out of line - disgraceful - his comments were.

"45 years experience" and yet he hasn't learnt the golden rule : sit on your hands when you don't know all the information. His comments were a disgrace, and needs to be removed from the public's eye.

#9TodayShow should also get bombarded so they don't put him on tv again.

[stormfury]

:DAdvice to BB. Don't be so quick to shoot your bolt with headline-grabbing rubbish about things of which - unless you have the FDR readouts - you could have no possible knowledge. Some of us in the industry see your credibility descending to that of GT, the erstwhile bag-snatcher and PPL. Not a good look for an ex-airline jock.
And lose the wanky uniform unless actually on flying duty..

:D

Buy this man a beer (or two).

[Beer Baron]

Why aren’t all 737 Max 8/9’s sitting on the ground until this is resolved?
The airlines flying this junk are listed entities and there is commercial impact.
The regulator is captured to ensure there is no commercial impact.
Wow, so we’ve gone from condemning BB for going off half cocked and prematurely blaming the pilot without all the evidence, to now blaming the plane, the airline and the regulator, without all the evidence.

Tell me Krusty or Rated De, in what exact ways does the Speed Trim System differ on the Max vs the NG?
Why is one safe and the other not?

Or a more simple question, could the pilots at any time use the main electric trim to trim nose up, overriding the STS inputs?
Would the Runaway Stabilizer checklist memory items have alleviated the problem?

I don’t know the answer to all these questions but one ought to before calling for the grounding of a fleet.

[KRUSTY 34]

I know all the facts aren’t in, but I just can’t get my head around what appears to be an “initiative” driven by what seems to be a complete loss of faith in pilots.

A system that can induce a nose down trim, that’s right trim, if the angle of attack exceeds (or the system believes it has exceeded) certain limits. Who the F#ck came up with that idea?

A lot has been said and written about the Colgan crash. Sure the Captain allowed himself to be distracted at a critical phase of fight. Certainly he reacted incorrectly to the onset of the stall warning, and we pretty well know the rest. I know this falls into the realms of speculation, but what if the Captain of Colgan 3407 noticed the decreasing airspeed before the normal stall warning activated. This would have occurred at a much lower airspeed if the ice speed system had been disabled, or not fitted at all? I flew for a company who had fitted the ice speed system to our regional turboprops. The initial results were less than encouraging. False warnings, failure to activate correctly and an enormous spike in inadvertent stall warnings. As a result, this new system that was supposed to save pilots from themselves, was deactivated for more than a year so it could be sorted out.

The role of the ice speed system in the Colgan crash, although touched upon, didn’t get the type of attention that I believe it deserved. I have a feeling however that this latest “Safety initiative” might be a little more difficult to justify.

[Beer Baron]

This “initiative” is nothing new, albeit has been refined in the Max.
This is an excerpt from the 737 NG flight manual:
As airspeed decreases​ towards stall speed, the speed​ trim​ system trims the ​stabilizer nose down and enables trim above stickshaker AOA. With​ this trim ​schedule the pilot must pull more aft column​ to stall the airplane.

It’s fair to say the 737 NG is pretty prolific and there have not been a string of accidents attributed to this system so let’s hold off on suggesting the system is innately dangerous and should not be flying.

[Capn Bloggs]

Beer, that isn't exactly how the FAA describes what could happen in it's EAD:

Unsafe Condition
This AD was prompted by analysis performed by the manufacturer showing that if an erroneously high single angle of attack (AOA) sensor input is received by the flight control system,there is a potential for repeated nose-down trim commands of the horizontal stabilizer. We are issuing
this AD to address this potential resulting nose-down trim, which could cause the flight crew to have difficulty controlling the airplane, and lead to excessive nose-down attitude, significant altitude loss, and possible impact with terrain.

and

The 737-8/-9 uses a Flight Control Computer command of pitch trim to improve longitudinal handling characteristics. In the event of erroneous Angle of Attack (AOA) input, the pitch trim system can trim the stabilizer nose down in increments lasting up to 10 seconds.

It appears that this is not the STS, but a new system called the MACS.

[Beer Baron]

You are quite right and I said from the outset that the STS on the Max is different to the NG but the basic premise is similar. The aircraft will attempt to trim itself during manual flight to correct a speed variation or stall. I’ve not flown the max and I don’t profess to know the intricacies of its system.
However, I believe on both types, you can still use main electric trim to reverse and correct an undesired STS input. (It will wait 5 or 10 seconds and then have another crack at it). And the Runaway Stabilizer checklist will rectify the fault (even if you are left holding the trim wheel).

[KRUSTY 34]

I must admit, after reading Blogg’s post, I rest my case.

Quote:

“The more they overtake the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drains.”

Commander Montgomery (Scotty) Scott.

[Centaurus]

Originally Posted by Wannabe Flyer https://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/614857-indonesian-aircraft-missing-off-jakarta-post10311683.html#post10311683)Any News on the CVR?


It's worth noting - especially in the sea of speculation above! - that, so far as I am aware, there's no specific news on the FDR data either. Nothing that Boeing or the FAA have said so far is explicitly linked to the FDR for this airframe. The FAA directive could be part-based on the FDR data; but it could equally - imho - be based on what is known about the flight from ATC data and communications, plus paperwork and witness statements about the prior difficulties that this particular a/c had recently encountered. So, previous flight crews could all have said that, having gone to manual flight following sensor disagree alerts, they then encountered strong and unexpected nose-down stab trim, uncommanded by them.
............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ................
Interesting observation. If true, does that mean everything written on the accident is nothing more than pure speculation or informed discussion which in turn becomes perceived fact ?

[Capn Bloggs]

If true, does that mean everything written on the accident is nothing more than pure speculation or informed discussion which in turn becomes perceived fact ?

They've got 69 hours of FDR data. https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/614857-indonesian-aircraft-missing-off-jakarta-64.html#post10311886

[zanthrus]

Krusty,

Its “The more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain.”

https://youtu.be/T2NsTi_43g4

My other favourite which is directed at BB and GT.

https://youtu.be/IgSF_MGYDP0 “Up your shaft!”

[KRUSTY 34]

Ha! Gold.

Thanks zanthrus. That'll teach me to quote from an inaccurate memory.

It now makes sense.

[stormfury]

He’s changed his ‘assessment’ quite a bit but still no retraction or apology.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/technical-faults-and-training-issues-central-to-lion-air-catastrophe/news-story/8d9903028094a513018798adc77e0f16

The Lion Air B737 Max crash of October 29 had warning bells and red flags all over it because of ongoing technical problems with the aircraft.

During the flight on October 26, the captain had no speed or altitude information on his PFD (primary flight display). The same occurred on the flight of October 27. On the flight of October 28 after takeoff from Bali, the captain’s stall warning stick shaker activated on rotation. The captain handed control to the co-pilot while troubleshooting the problem.

On flap retraction, they had three automatic nose-down trim occurrences. He declared an emergency and over the next several minutes ran three non-normal checklists in the order of “airspeed unreliable”; “altitude disagree” and “runaway stabiliser” which has the final item, “stab (stabiliser) trim” switches to “cut off”. This solved the automatic nose-down trim events. The captain then told ATC the problem was solved and the co-pilot flew the rest of the flight to Jakarta using manual trim (no autopilot) with the captain’s stick shaker activated.

The technical log entries post flight apparently did not give a clear picture to the incoming October 29 captain of the full extent of what he was to endure. The position of the horizontal stabiliser (STAB) is always set at a negative angle in relation to the wing so as to supply a downforce to keep the aircraft in trim –_balanced so that the pilot has little or no pitch control column pressure from the elevator, which is hinged at the back of the STAB.

I have examined at length the DFDR (digital flight data recorder) traces of the Lion Air fatal flight of October 29, and they paint a damning and tragic picture of what unfolded.

On rotation for takeoff the captain’s stall warning stick shaker activated and remained active for the whole 12-minute flight. Call this takeoff time “0”.

At 0 plus 2 minutes at an altitude of 2150 feet, the flap was retracted and followed by 10 seconds of automatic MCAS nose-down trim (AND). This was followed by manually activated nose-up trim (ANU) while holding the control column back to give up elevator.

At 0 plus 3 minutes, the flaps were extended to 5 degrees and the AND stopped.

At 0 plus 5 minutes the flaps were retracted and the AND ran for 10 seconds and was countered by pilot ANU.

For the next 6 minutes there were over 20 automatic AND, each time followed by a pilot ANU. At 0 plus 11 minutes there were 4 AND, each followed by a very small manual ANU correction until the horizontal stabiliser had full nose-down trim and entered a dive which full nose-up elevator could not prevent.

0 plus 12 minutes end DFDR traces as the aircraft crashed.

It is obvious the captain was totally befuddled by the events occurring. He failed to identify what was happening to the extent that he fought against the automatic nose-down trim instead of disabling it with the stab-trim cut-off switches near the throttle quadrant.

Stabiliser trim motors are designed to reduce load with brief activation. To be running almost continuously, down and up, for over 6 minutes may have brought the electric motors close to seizure.

The cockpit voice recorder is needed to paint a fuller picture of this tragic event and the search is continuing at the moment. It is obvious that this flight should never have been allowed to happen.

[Mach E Avelli]

Not only is there no apology for his earlier libel, he seeks to stick the knife into the Captain further.
Statements like : "It is obvious that the Captain was totally befuddled...." and: "He failed to identify....."
So BB was a fly on the cockpit wall and saw all this befuddlement and failure, did he?

A writer with his technical knowledge but less focused on laying blame before the investigation has been completed would be decent enough to say no more about the crew's performance in this tragedy than: "it appears from information so far retrieved that the crew were overwhelmed by a failure that had not been foreseen and they had never seen in the simulator".

His last statement about the flight should have never been allowed is, however, spot on.

[ramble on]

That Bailey represents aviation professionals in any media sums up the state of the industry here.....dismal.

[Gnadenburg]

I enjoy reading the yarns of an old 70's Mirage pilot in Friday's Australian. Shoots from the hip and believes his own bull$hit. Very entertaining and I wish the articles longer. Actually, I wish he'd sink a few beers and then write, so the yarns could match the "epicness" of a Friday night, or any night for that matter, at an air force mess where there was a fighter squadron.

I do cringe at his comments on civil aviation matters and his fallback as an EK captain. He writes like a mercenary contract pilot with little regard to the holistic complexities of civil airline flying or empathy or understanding of wider piloting issues. Having flown in the Middle East myself, this is not untypical, where anyone from any background, could flourish amongst pretty modest standards, just so long as you don't make a stand on professional agendas commonly accepted in the first world .

[KRUSTY 34]

Well, I’m sorry.

The assertion that the Captain should have done this, or should not have done that, along with the emerging evidence that this poor crew were not properly informed or trained in this so called new safety feature, shows an ignorance of human limitations that frankly I find breathtaking.

At at the end of the day that aeroplane was out to kill them. And it succeeded!

[Rated De]

I enjoy reading the yarns of an old 70's Mirage pilot in Friday's Australian. Shoots from the hip and believes his own bull$hit. Very entertaining and I wish the articles longer. Actually, I wish he'd sink a few beers and then write, so the yarns could match the "epicness" of a Friday night, or any night for that matter, at an air force mess where there was a fighter squadron.

I do cringe at his comments on civil aviation matters and his fallback as an EK captain. He writes like a mercenary contract pilot with little regard to the holistic complexities of civil airline flying or empathy or understanding of wider piloting issues. Having flown in the Middle East myself, this is not untypical, where anyone from any background, could flourish amongst pretty modest standards, just so long as you don't make a stand on professional agendas commonly accepted in the first world .

Very eloquently written.
Emotionally intelligent professional people do not wear spurs.

[megan]

Looks like they've run out of cash in CVR recovery

https://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/101/4211-full.html

[KRUSTY 34]

I smell a rat.

A brand new airliner takes on a mind of it's own after being fed erroneous information from a faulty sensor/unit. Despite the efforts of the crew it crashes violently, killing nearly 200 people. All the while in day VMC, and after less than 15 minutes of flight time. How is this anything but a total disaster, yet it's gone strangely quiet on mainstream media. Now the investigators say they are lacking the resources to locate the CVR!

If this tragic event had occurred over the suburbs of LA or Sydney, it would have been the scandal of the Decade.

My conspiracy meter is running at around 90% at the moment.

[Pinky the pilot]

My conspiracy meter is running at around 90% at the moment.

Krusty 34; Whilst my conspiracy meter does not run that high, I will concede that there may be some similarities in conclusions that could possibly be drawn from the MH 370 episode.

In that particular instance, I have the personal feeling that MH 370 will never be found simply because there are certain people in positions of power/responsibility/whatever who do not want it to be found!:hmm:

May I suggest that the same applies to the inability to locate this CVR?

[Dora-9]

Bingo, Pinky!

[Chris2303]

May I suggest that the same applies to the inability to locate this CVR?

Boeing included?

[Pinky the pilot]

Boeing included?

I lean in no particular direction Chris2303 but am merely making a comment.

Suggest that you draw your own conclusions.

[megan]

Posted by Chris - Boeing included?More than possible, corporations don't like hanging their dirty washing out for all to see, especially when litigants want to relieve them of cash.

[KRUSTY 34]

Just heard on the news, Boeing shares at an all time high!

Funny World we live in.

[Mach E Avelli]

Yet again he gives his adoring readership his c.v. reminding them of how he is qualified on five airline types and 13 corporate jet types. Somehow he weaves that gem into most of what he writes. Plus a valuable lesson on how to fly an engine out procedure, despite it being irrelevant to the subject. Non sequitor or what?
Then simplifies the problem to a mere pitch trim runaway, which of course any well trained pilot such as himself would instantly recognise and deal with.
No mention of the lack of information from Boeing at the time. No mention of a probable lack of updated simulator software to give pilots the additional conflicting cues that likely occurred, ie the other chaos which likely was going on with stick shakers, erroneous airspeeds, trim running, then stopping, then runnng etc

[Rated De]

A useful idiot, nothing more

[industry insider]

GT has been busy solving the ET crash as well.
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/almost-inconceivable-that-same-problem-could-strike-737-twice-ng-b881131613z

[machtuk]

Remember the grubby media make out this GT numbnuts to be some sort of genius! The news in all its formats are aimed at everyone not just pilots/engineers, Mr&Mrs Joe Public are clueless and believe whatever is on the news!
Put a knowledgable engineer or experienced Boeing driver on the news then a proper explanation would go right over the heads of most, hence the media keep it simple for the masses leaving us in the industry shaking our heads! ,

[Capt Fathom]

Both BB and GT have been very quiet on this subject... after their embarrassing comments on Lion Air.
Just sticking their toes back into the water! Hopefully it will be too hot!

[ifylofd]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1806x278/image_03337a6e669638002e6328cf69671cebdc9f55a6.png


WTF??????

[212man]

"The problem with these budgets airlines is that unlike Qantas, Emirates and everyone else, the pilots get in the flight simulator every six months and practice these things.."

Clearly not as eloquent as he might be, saying the exact opposite of what he meant!

[ifylofd]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1658x318/image_e27464e1fc98a65601912ddfea42296fd3828909.png
........in Search of the Truth

Wow. did we miss something?

[LeadSled]

Folks,
Being an public "expert" can be quite lucrative.
Tootle pip!!

[Capt Kremin]

I've read Ean Higgins latest book on MH370. BB doesn't remember too much from his AVMED days regarding contracting the "Bends".

You pre-breathed pure oxygen for an extended time BB. Thats why you didn't get the Bends.
Same for your canopy incident at 40,000 feet. You were on pure oxygen.

But what do I know?

[Rated De]

I've read Ean Higgins latest book on MH370. BB doesn't remember too much from his AVMED days regarding contracting the "Bends".

You pre-breathed pure oxygen for an extended time BB. Thats why you didn't get the Bends.
Same for your canopy incident at 40,000 feet. You were on pure oxygen.

But what do I know?

Captain, the necessary pre-requisites are happy to comment publicly without facts, ego and the ability to comment without facts..

BB has more than ample of the second requisite and an excess of items one and three.
Being right isn't necessary.

[Global Aviator]

So will he release an official apology?

[hoss]

IF it is found that the Stab Trim Switches are not Cutout then BB is on the money. Unfortunately, my suspicion is that both these crews failed to complete the Memory Items in a timely manner. The billion dollar question is what position are the switches in?

[LeadSled]

IF it is found that the Stab Trim Switches are not Cutout then BB is on the money. Unfortunately, my suspicion is that both these crews failed to complete the Memory Items in a timely manner. The billion dollar question is what position are the switches in?
hoss,
I think you are right on the mark.
The long time discouragement of any hand flying is now biting us collectively on the posterior.
Tootle pip!!

[Capt Fathom]

I think the point was BB specifically called out Lion Air and other 'budget airlines' for not training their pilots to the same standard as 'legacy' airlines.

He made that statement the day after the accident, thereby allowing the public to think that the two were somehow connected.

As it turns out, there maybe more to it. The fleet is still grounded.

[hoss]

Sure, it seems there might be a problem with the MCAS. I’m assuming the FCOM vol.2 is ‘light on’ with information on this new system. I would also like to think that Boeing covered all eventualities with this system and were satisfied that the Memory Items would suffice.

Lets face it, both Airspeed Unreliable and Runaway Stabilizer have the pilot remove automation and Fly the aircraft. Simple stuff.

Sadly and with all information so far, I think both accidents were avoidable.

[maesaithwameh]

Anyone know what Geoffrey Thomas's credentials are as an 'Aviation Expert'? Was he a B777 captain too in a former life?

[Australopithecus]

Sure, it seems there might be a problem with the MCAS. I’m assuming the FCOM vol.2 is ‘light on’ with information on this new system. I would also like to think that Boeing covered all eventualities with this system and were satisfied that the Memory Items would suffice.

Lets face it, both Airspeed Unreliable and Runaway Stabilizer have the pilot remove automation and Fly the aircraft. Simple stuff.

Sadly and with all information so far, I think both accidents were avoidable.

1.: A very minor point: FCOM is now contained in one volume
2. The FCOM is mute on the MCAS; No mention is made of it at all except in Brazil apparently. Their regulator didn't accept Boeing's assurances on the subject and hence required at least some crew training on MCAS.
3. Boeing allowed a hidden input to a secondary, but very powerful flight control based on the data from a single source.
4. Boeing maintains that the runaway stabliser checklist adequately addresses inappropriate MCAS activation.
5. Boeing's runaway stabiliser checklist starts with the condition statement “uncomanded stabiliser trim movement occurs CONTINUOUSLY”.
6. The MCAS operates in slow 9.2 second bursts, then pauses for five seconds, then acts again.
7. Depending on your english skills, the MCAS may or may not satisfy your personal trigger threshold for an actual runaway stab. I have had an unrelated stab runaway and it was neither continuous nor as trained.
8. Boeing characterised a MCAS event as less than catastrophic, hence justified their reliance on a single sensor, and a single data path, despite even that being outside the letter of FAR 25
9. Being provides no useful guidance on the ramifications of flight control malfunctions in a holistic sense. There is no mention made of elevator load relief limiting elevator deflection at speeds >300 kts. Nor is there guidance on configuration changes, Nor how to interpret an apparent unreliable airspeed/stall warning on take-off.
10. Try to handle a challenging event with the stick shaker buzzing away and the trim moving in opposition to your control inputs the way the speed trim system does on every take-off and then determine that you have another unrelated failure that needs immediate action.

[Rated De]

1.: A very minor point: FCOM is now contained in one volume
2. The FCOM is mute on the MCAS; No mention is made of it at all except in Brazil apparently. Their regulator didn't accept Boeing's assurances on the subject and hence required at least some crew training on MCAS.
3. Boeing allowed a hidden input to a secondary, but very powerful flight control based on the data from a single source.
4. Boeing maintains that the runaway stabliser checklist adequately addresses inappropriate MCAS activation.
5. Boeing's runaway stabiliser checklist starts with the condition statement “uncomanded stabiliser trim movement occurs CONTINUOUSLY”.
6. The MCAS operates in slow 9.2 second bursts, then pauses for five seconds, then acts again.
7. Depending on your english skills, the MCAS may or may not satisfy your personal trigger threshold for an actual runaway stab. I have had an unrelated stab runaway and it was neither continuous nor as trained.
8. Boeing characterised a MCAS event as less than catastrophic, hence justified their reliance on a single sensor, and a single data path, despite even that being outside the letter of FAR 25
9. Being provides no useful guidance on the ramifications of flight control malfunctions in a holistic sense. There is no mention made of elevator load relief limiting elevator deflection at speeds >300 kts. Nor is there guidance on configuration changes, Nor how to interpret an apparent unreliable airspeed/stall warning on take-off.
10. Try to handle a challenging event with the stick shaker buzzing away and the trim moving in opposition to your control inputs the way the speed trim system does on every take-off and then determine that you have another unrelated failure that needs immediate action.



Very eloquently summarised.
That Boeing fudged FAR25 and permitted a single failure point and self classified the risk as non-catastrophic will likely get the attention of the investigators.

[hoss]

Excellent information mate.

Point 1, there is still a Vol.2, systems description it’s just been rolled into the one manual.

Unfortunately, I don’t have access to your points 2 and 3. I’ll take your word for it🙂.

Point 4, I would have thought so and I hope that goes in Boeing’s favour.

Point 5, how long would you wait to determine continuously?

Point 6, same as 2 and 3.

Point 7, even though your Runaway Stabilizer event didn’t meet the condition statement, did you complete the Memory Items? Boeing admits that it is not possible to develop checklists for all conceivable situations.

Points 8 and 9, I don’t have access to that information. I will say though that I like the ‘less is more’ philosophy in the Vol.2😉. It allows us to just concentrate more on flying and being Pilots not Engineers.

Point 10, I agree. Certainly a challenging event, but very doable with good discipline, standards and training. Remove the automation, set more blue than brown on the PFD, with the appropriate thrust then trim. If the trim is running against the grain do something about it, maintain aircraft control then analyse the situation.

Again, thank you for the info and making me hit the book (not books) 😉

[Australopithecus]

Excellent information mate.

Point 1, there is still a Vol.2, systems description it’s just been rolled into the one manual.

Unfortunately, I don’t have access to your points 2 and 3. I’ll take your word for it🙂.

Point 4, I would have thought so and I hope that goes in Boeing’s favour.

Point 5, how long would you wait to determine continuously?

Point 6, same as 2 and 3.

Point 7, even though your Runaway Stabilizer event didn’t meet the condition statement, did you complete the Memory Items? Boeing admits that it is not possible to develop checklists for all conceivable situations.

Points 8 and 9, I don’t have access to that information. I will say though that I like the ‘less is more’ philosophy in the Vol.2😉. It allows us to just concentrate more on flying and being Pilots not Engineers.

Point 10, I agree. Certainly a challenging event, but very doable with good discipline, standards and training. Remove the automation, set more blue than brown on the PFD, with the appropriate thrust then trim. If the trim is running against the grain do something about it, maintain aircraft control then analyse the situation.

Again, thank you for the info and making me hit the book (not books) 😉

Howdy Mr. Cartwright!

Regarding point four...Not going to go in Boeing's favour, I'm afraid. Hence the grounding, several investigations and several regulators demanding full disclosure of the entire flight test results and every change from the NG that we fly.

On point 5, I don't know. Would you even detect the first few seconds if normal speed trim activity had desensitised you somewhat? And the word continuously means “unbroken”. The word continually (I was reminded today) is a more accurate depiction of MCAS, and indeed other trim failure modes.

The larger point is that in the current tech writing practice much value is placed on economy of words.
My first pilot manual, Stairway to Heaven claimed that sometimes words have two meanings.
We all know that flexibility is the key to air power, and that ambiguity is the key to flexibility, but perhaps not so much when it comes to procedures.

Point 7...It was a long time ago, but it occured slowly in the mid flight levels on climb while I was hand flying. Not an electrical runaway, but rather a brake failure coupled with wear in the jackscrew. The stab trim would run about 1 1/2 turns in opposition to slight pitch control inputs, even after hitting the cutouts. While we found that fascinating we did in fact complete the NNC recalls (recall them?) and did a 360° and got the hell outta there. Maybe it was a 540? Anyway...Not all runaways are dramatic sounding or feeling. At least initially.

​​​​​​​

[hoss]

I wish I hadn’t skipped those English classes at school, doh! 😉

By your knowledge and writing I think I know you, is your ‘local’ the Regatta hotel?

Cheers

[Australopithecus]

The Regatta? No, but I wish it was. I am 7NM west of MOOVI

[hoss]

Mt Tambourine?

Again, thanks for the info and all the best for State of Origin. 😜

I bet Boeing are wishing they had started with a clean sheet of paper rather than the 52 year old Frankenstein that it has become.

[Mach E Avelli]

BB beats the incompetent third world pilot drum at every opportunity.
If these accidents were the result of mere pilot error, or poor training at one or two airlines, the entire world fleet would not be grounded.
Rather, pilots at the guilty airlines would be grounded until they retrained, while it would be ops normal elsewhere.

That said, I would not fly with Lion Air, but only because of their long history of accidents where the crew clearly were at fault. Others in the know claim that Ethiopian’s standards are actually quite good.

[hoss]

Is it true that the MCAS fault has manifest itself quite a number of times and been managed successfully by other crews. Obviously MCAS needs to be upgraded, maybe a second channel. I suspect with both the crashes that the A/P was engaged, something I will be looking for in the reports.

[Capn Bloggs]

I suspect with both the crashes that the A/P was engaged, something I will be looking for in the reports.
MACS is inoperative with the AP engaged.

[machtuk]

Oddly enuf I flew a 0.82 jet for years, no A/T, No protection other than shudder in the airframe (stick shaker but would never trust it) for a stall & somehow we survived, funny about that! Automation brings with it increased risks not less !

[The Bullwinkle]

Oddly enuf I flew a 0.82 jet for years, no A/T, No protection other than shudder in the airframe (stick shaker but would never trust it) for a stall & somehow we survived, funny about that! Automation brings with it increased risks not less !
Try telling that to airline CEO’s who espouse that modern jets are so safe that the overpaid bus drivers who operate them are nothing more than button pushers these days on the verge of becoming obsolete.

[Australopithecus]

There is no chance of the world’s pilot demand being satisfied by the traditional slow drip of GA and military pilots. So, the industry has crafted the new legend that low time pilots are entirely as safe and skilled as their rapidly aging senior crew.

Two observations:

1. Modern transport aircraft are an order of magnitude more reliable than prior generations. A young pilot will likely do 3000 hours or so before command, and that will be mostly the same hour 3000 times.

2. The paralysing fear of litigation prevents many airlines from sharing their collective experience in-house. Hence, only a very few lessons are passed on for reflection. The day-to-day “I learned about flying from that” is almost completely lacking. There remains of course rumours and allegations wherever drinks are hoisted, but those are rarely accurate or informative.

I sometimes despair about the state of the industry-while the same reliability that I mentioned above keeps getting better, its not perfect, and can be compromised by management directive. That said, the young people with whom I fly seem earnest and capable. If the manufacturers can once again build an honest aeroplane without eight implied asterisks in every chapter of the FCOM then inexperience may in fact not matter. Except when my family is onboard, of course.

[barbados sky]

GT has been busy solving the ET crash as well.
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/almos...ng-b881131613z (https://thewest.com.au/opinion/almost-inconceivable-that-same-problem-could-strike-737-twice-ng-b881131613z)

Seems GT is now backtracking in his latest copy and paste attempt at journalism.

https://thewest.com.au/business/aviation/boeings-billion-dollar-737-max-tragedy-will-be-felt-for-decades-ng-b881144100z

[Rated De]

Seems GT is now backtracking in his latest copy and paste attempt at journalism.

https://thewest.com.au/business/aviation/boeings-billion-dollar-737-max-tragedy-will-be-felt-for-decades-ng-b881144100z

One can but hope that litigation is being prepared against this fool, that idiot Byron and the media outlets that allowed sensationalist non-factual rubbish pass as informed commentary.

[Rated De]

Australia does have a few low-time pilots, but they are typically used as second officers after completing training at a top-flight flying school.

So Geoffrey, with your Chairman's lounge membership at risk, can you confirm unequivocally that your pay masters will not be sending any 200 hour pilots to subsidiary airlines? That is of course when they 'graduate' from the yet to be opened, yet to train one student, "academy"

[The Bullwinkle]

6. The MCAS operates in slow 9.2 second bursts, then pauses for five seconds, then acts again.

9.2 seconds is a pretty long time.
Try hanging by your balls for that long!
I certainly think a B737 trim wheel trimming continuously for 9.2 seconds would get my attention!

[CurtainTwitcher]

9.2 seconds is a pretty long time.
Try hanging by your balls for that long!
I certainly think a B737 trim wheel trimming continuously for 9.2 seconds would get my attention!

In isolation, yes, with a heap of commotion going on around you, where it only begins after you retract the flaps with the stick shaker going off and warning flags everywhere, would it be so clear cut? Particularly if you counter trim and the MCAS pauses for 5 seconds before slowly applying the nose down trim again. Remember, at this point in time you don't even know a MCAS exists.

Not only that, as you increase airspeed the nose down effect of the previous controllable mis-trimmed stab that has been ratcheted in overwhelms your physical strength to pitch up due to the airload on the control column. The worst possible thing you could do at that point would be to use the stab trim cutout switches? Why, you now have a severely mis-trimmed stab and no electric trim to recover it quickly, the only way to correct that is through tens-of-turns of the manual trim wheel with you and your mate against a high airload.
I don't think this was a simply or easy scenario to handle.

See my post on this over at R&N Ethiopian thread post #443 (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/618252-boeing-737-max-software-fixes-due-lion-air-crash-delayed-13.html#post10434714).