New Amesbury case is Novichok exposure

[NutLoose]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/amesbury-poisoning-couple-exposed-to-deadly-novichok-that-nearly-killed-russian-spy-sergei-skripal/ar-AAzAwTY?li=BBoPRmx&item=personalization_enabled:false&ocid=spartandhp&MSCC=1530741981

I feel for the people in the area, Salisbury was just recovering and now this. Possible original source?

Poor Army will be left with the clean up again.

[piesupper]

Seems like the #RussianBogeyman story was losing steam as too many people are liking the World Cup and discovering Russians are real people too.

So time to drag up this fantasy again.
Anybody seen Julia Skripal recently?
Believe this and you will believe anything.

[Mogwi]

It is not the Russian people that are the threat, it is their corrupt and patently untrustworthy leadership. No doubt they will cry "fake news", which is the modern version of "not me, Daddy".

Off to dig out my S6.

MOG

[Pontius Navigator]

Running in JB too.

I find my S10 is excellent, Good for BBQs too.

beer through a straw not so good.

[Onceapilot]

I guess this is likely a case of contamination from previous release incident in the area. TBH, I am surprised that similar has not happened before and I was worried some poor child playing might be the one to get contaminated. Of course, the exact circumstances of this incident remain to be revealed. Best wishes for anyone accidentally involved.

OAP

[A_Van]

Seems like the #RussianBogeyman story was losing steam as too many people are liking the World Cup and discovering Russians are real people too.

So time to drag up this fantasy again.
Anybody seen Julia Skripal recently?
Believe this and you will believe anything.

Sorry to be part of this off-topic, but I am just No. 6 :-)


This would look reasonable for Russophobes, but why ordinary English people are targeted now and not anybody explicitly linked to Russia? So, IMHO it looks like the source of this A-232 or -234 substance is in England. It is not so durable to remain deadly for many months in an open air. Versions that come to my mind:

Jack the Ripper is alive and turned from "mechanics" to chemistry. His policy to select victims is yet unknown.
"A Study in Scarlet" (by Arthur Conan Doyle): this second time the poison was purposed for somebody else and not for this couple.
Anyway, this second tragic accident proves that the previous case (with the Skrypals) looked a bit idiotic: if the (Russian) regime was behind, that man - Skrypal - would be in the bottom of the (long) target list. He spent enough time in prison, was released/exchanged and allowed to emigrate, did not knew anything else in addition to information already passed to his "hosts" long before. Lived a quiet life abroad, was not involved in any anti-Russian campaigns. There are tens (if not hundreds) of noisy anti-regime activists (most of them are just criminal elements that stole millions from Russia) who really irritate the (current) establishment. Thus, if the western provocateurs who poisoned the Skrypals had more brains, they would target somebody else. This makes me think that puppeteers thought that such a "fine tuning" was not necessary, any kind of victim would be enough to generate the required noise. And this was true. Maybe they do not bother this time, either. Any event could be linked to Russia - heat/frost, flood, traffic jams, etc.

[beardy]

It is not so durable to remain deadly for many months in an open air.

You seem to know a lot about it. Or are you surmising to justify your opinion?

[Clockwork Mouse]

Interesting to see that the “it’s all a dastardly western plot to discredit the cuddly Russians” movement has now even infiltrated pprune.

[PEI_3721]

Would it be expected for this chemical to degrade over time, if so how long, what effect might the weather have. Or what type of container would be required to prevent degrading.

[falcon900]

Timing is always a consideration, and it does seem notable that this should happen more or less at the same time as England progress to the next stage of the World Cup in, err, ehm, Russia.
Being of a suspicious and cynical disposition, I do wonder whether what comes next is something along the lines of:
Russia: This has nothing to do with us, and proves that others in England have access to this material. Porton Down seem to know a lot about it, and are only a few miles away, Stolen from there. Clearly whoever did this also responsible for previous incident. We demand an apology!
UK; No, no, nothing to do with us. Caused by....... Well, we're not sure at the moment, and are certainly toiling to explain a connection to the Skripals, and know that nobody will believe this stuff survived on its own from the previous incident.
Russia: We demand an apology!
UK: The Police are investigating, premature to comment.
Russia: We demand an apology! Apologise immediately or leave the country........

[Pontius Navigator]

Falcon, you missed

We demand Russia is expelled from the World Cup and the finals be held e Ljubljana elsewhere.

BTW, Wembley is available

[jez d]

I think Falcon has it in a nutshell. I wonder what odds the bookies are giving on the England squad being booted out of Russia before Saturday?

[thunderbird7]

Timing is always a consideration, and it does seem notable that this should happen more or less at the same time as England progress to the next stage of the World Cup in, err, ehm, Russia.
Being of a suspicious and cynical disposition, I do wonder whether what comes next is something along the lines of:
Russia: This has nothing to do with us, and proves that others in England have access to this material. Porton Down seem to know a lot about it, and are only a few miles away, Stolen from there. Clearly whoever did this also responsible for previous incident. We demand an apology!
UK; No, no, nothing to do with us. Caused by....... Well, we're not sure at the moment, and are certainly toiling to explain a connection to the Skripals, and know that nobody will believe this stuff survived on its own from the previous incident.
Russia: We demand an apology!
UK: The Police are investigating, premature to comment.
Russia: We demand an apology! Apologise immediately or leave the country........

Call me a cynic but thats exactly what I thought! What a load of bollox

[BEagle]

Regarding Novichok, personally I reckon that some renegade with a grudge against Skripal from bygone days, obtained a quantity at the time when it was supposed to be being destroyed. Either that or later through an underworld connection.

If Boris-the-bull$hitter, that proven liar (don't take my word for it, just listen to Eddie Mair interviewing the slob), has any real evidence then declare it. Piss or get off the pot, Boris! The juvenile 'russophobia' exhibited by the weak and unstable Tory government appears to have no real justification and simply makes the UK look plain daft.

How the latest exposure to Novichok came about is truly mysterious though. Perhaps the original perpetrator was careless when disposing of the remainder of the substance used in the attempted murder of the Skripals?

[langleybaston]

Safest place to be right now is Russia, of course.

[Davef68]

How the latest exposure to Novichok came about is truly mysterious though. Perhaps the original perpetrator was careless when disposing of the remainder of the substance used in the attempted murder of the Skripals?

Or a false flag operation to make it look like Russia could not be the source of the original incident

[MPN11]

I understood that Novichik was highly persistent, so any mishandling during the pevious incident (either my the perpetrator or my those trying clear up) could easily have achieved a secondary contamination.

My grudging respect for A Van has been somewhat diminished by his earlier post.

[beardy]

The juvenile 'russophobia' exhibited by the weak and unstable Tory government appears to have no real justification and simply makes the UK look plain daft.

I listened to General Sir Adrian John Bradshaw, KCB, OBE recently retired deputy SACEUR speak at Hay-on-Wye. His assessment of Russia and Putin is very interesting and is somewhat at odds with yours BEagle. He probably has more of the inside track on this than you, so I would prefer to consider his judgement over your politically biased one.

General Sir Adrian Bradshaw described the Russian military doctrine – often known as hybrid war – by which it subverts and undermines the stability of its neighbours by combining all of its capabilities. It starts with unmarked troops and gradually builds up, and thus establishes what Bradshaw called “escalation dominance”.

"For NATO, this new way of warfare holds pronounced dangers. You cannot be sure a sovereign nation is behind it,” he said. He then listed the 30 different explanations that Russian media outlets have used to justify the attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury. “The new Russian way of disinformation is to fill the information domain with so much stuff you can't tell what's right or wrong."

This was not limited to Ukraine and Britain, he said that Russian money had been stirring up unrest between Muslims and Christians in Bulgaria and Bosnia, and the Western countries were struggling to know how to respond. "It's very important to keep the momentum behind the things we have been doing in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine."

But Vladimir Putin would get truly dangerous if ever he felt like his position was threatened. “At the moment his domestic popularity is huge, the envy of Western politicians,” Bradshaw said. “I think things get really dangerous if he looks like falling off his perch, particularly if things get particularly nasty.”



and also:An article from all places The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/29/putin-more-dangerous-weak-than-strong-adrian-bradshaw)

[A_Van]

You seem to know a lot about it. Or are you surmising to justify your opinion?

No, I do not know a lot. But as a military aviation man, I was obliged to study, in my youth, the measures to protect from chemweaps, as well as from other WMD. And I recall that all such (phosphorous based)_gases do not have long lifetime (it is measured out in days or few weeks depending on the weather).. To make them work longer they should be in a state close to solid (or at least liquid), but in this case how they could be dispersed?

And linking this case to potential anti-British actions in Russia in the football area is nothing but a paranoia. The championship goes on well, Bristish fans, in absolute majority, feel OK in Russia. English team plays well (while the Russian one plays bad, BTW) and is welcome here.

[beardy]

No, I do not know a lot. But as a military aviation man, I was obliged to study, in my youth, the measures to protect from chemweaps, as well as from other WMD. And I recall that all such (phosphorous based)_gases do not have long lifetime (it is measured out in days or few weeks depending on the weather).. To make them work longer they should be in a state close to solid (or at least liquid), but in this case how they could be dispersed?

I understand that this particular substance is unlike those that you were familiar with in earlier years and so it is unwise to extrapolate old knowledge to new formulations.

I agree this has nothing to do with football, to misquote Bill Shankly It's more important than that.

[MPN11]

ITV News has a non-authoritatve summary.

Novichok: What exactly is it? - ITV News (http://www.itv.com/news/2018-07-04/novichok-what-exactly-is-it/)

http://www.itv.com/news/2018-07-05/amesbury-novichok-poisoning-raises-serious-questions-over-salisbury-clean-up/

[hoss183]

I really can't believe the people denying this happened. Perhaps some of their IP addresses would locate to 55°45'10.26"N 37°37'8.94"E

[Danny42C]

MPN11,

"There have been differing claims about the persistence of Novichok and binary precursors in the environment. One view is that it is not affected by normal weather conditions, and may not decomposes as quickly as other organophosphates. However Mirzayanov states that Novichok would decompose within four months" [Wiki]

Could this be produced in quantity (at reasonable cost) to spread or spray on open ground in order to deny access to troops as effectively as land mines ? Our work at the C.D.R.E. in Cannanore in '44/'46 was concerned with defences against liquid Mustard Gas (Dichlorodiethylsullphide) used for the purpose (but Monsoon rain soon washes it off).

[MPN11]

Oh, so 4 months’ persistence puts the original incident back in the frame, doesn’t it?

Whatever the detail, it seems there’s still some VERY nasty stuff floating around in Darkest Hampshire, and my sympathy goes to those living there who may randomly ‘pick up a dose’.

I will refrain from commenting on a suitable punishment for the perpetrator, but I have some interesting ideas. And that would include an accidental release from CBRE, not that I have them in the frame. My visits there, involving a CBW trial, showed me how careful they are.

[A_Van]

I understand that this particular substance is unlike those that you were familiar with in earlier years and so it is unwise to extrapolate old knowledge to new formulations.
.......

I think we all were taught in old days how to behave in case of sarin or VX attack. Were also told that they would lose their power in a few hours in summer and in a few days in winter. This new substance, A-232 or -234 (BTW, patented in US) is from the same "product line". You are right: quantitive extrapolation can hardly be done, but changing the lifetime from hours to months looks strange and hardly possible.

It looks like that after the second tragedy it makes sense to take a trvial and non politically biased look at all this. Both venues are not far from notorious Porton Down where chem. experts are playing their games for 3/4+ century. Recall the story of Ronald Maddison?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Maddison

IMHO, the Occam's razor would suggest to look for a mentally ill individual (or an intended serial killer) linked to the above facility rather than blame establishments for their direct involvement (Britain blames Russia and vice versa).

[hoss183]

IMHO, the Occam's razor would suggest to look for a mentally ill individual (or an intended serial killer) linked to the above facility rather than blame establishments for their direct involvement (Britain blames Russia and vice versa).

I looked, he's at the coordinates posted above. If you think anything else you have been too long under the state sponsored propaganda.

[cats_five]

<snip>
Darkest Hampshire
<snip>

Wiltshire.

[TEEEJ]

Sorry to be part of this off-topic, but I am just No. 6 :-)

This would look reasonable for Russophobes, but why ordinary English people are targeted now and not anybody explicitly linked to Russia? So, IMHO it looks like the source of this A-232 or -234 substance is in England. It is not so durable to remain deadly for many months in an open air.

Clearly you haven't been following the story. The couple are believed to have handled a contaminated object in the Queen Elizabeth Gardens, Salisbury. Why are you so convinced that the specific nerve agent is not durable months later? Consider that the couple discovered a sealed canister or container. If the likes of VX can remain deadly in a sealed container for years then so can the likes of Novichok.

See post by VP959 on JB.

https://www.pprune.org/10188970-post1536.html

From thread.

https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/606204-sergei-skripal.html

Amesbury poisoning: Couple 'handled contaminated item'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44727191

[beardy]

IMHO, the Occam's razor would suggest to look for a mentally ill individual (or an intended serial killer) linked to the above facility rather than blame establishments for their direct involvement (Britain blames Russia and vice versa)

Ah yes Occam's Razor. The one that would say that Trotsky slipped and fell on his ice pick while trying to chill his vodka, in Mexico City.

[Brian 48nav]

What has this got to do with military aviation?