WW2, what if Hitler had started in 1938

[Pontius Navigator]

There have been lots of discussions on WW2, with one on JB if Hitler had won. What if he had invaded Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1938?

Clearly the RAF would not have been as ready in Sep 1939. Would Britain have declared war or perhaps remained non-belligerent?
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[Harley Quinn]

As the pact between France, UK and Poland wasn't in force until March '39 there would be no requirement for Anglo French support for Poland. Whether Chamberlain's pronouncement of peace in our time would look more hollow?

For my money the real difference would be the timing of the invasion of France and subsequent loss of equipment at Dunkirk which eventually resulted in US support via lend lease.

[Heathrow Harry]

If anything Hitler went too soon - if he'd waited to 1940 or 41 he'd have had an almost fully mechanised Army, a much bigger navy and an Air Force testing jet aircraft

No doubt we'd have slept on with Mr Chamberlain still at the helm.....................

[beardy]

If we open a quarrel between the past and present, we shall find we have lost the future
Winston Churchill

[MPN11]

If anything Hitler went too soon - if he'd waited to 1940 or 41 he'd have had an almost fully mechanised Army, a much bigger navy and an Air Force testing jet aircraftISTR that Albert Speer's autobiography mentioned the general intent to wait a couple more years before kicking off for that very reason. However, Mr Hitler couldn't wait to start more invading.

[rolling20]

I think one needs to remember the Molotov-Ribbentrop Non Agression pact. That allowed the Germans a ‘free hand’ in Poland ,with the Russians taking spoils in eastern Poland and having spheres of influence in the Baltic.This wasn’t explored until late 38 and signed in August 39,literally one week before the start of WW2. I think more importantly, Germany wasn’t ready for war economically in 1938, despite all it’s blustering. The German generals knew this and they needed Russian commodities to address shortfalls. A further agreement for goods was signed in February 1940. Bizarrely, Germany got half its oil from Mexico pre 39 and any naval blockade would have soon ended that source.
It was Russian oil that powered the Luftwaffe, if not during the Battle of Britain, then definitely during the Blitz.

[bobward]

If you search on Amazon, there's quite a lot of 'Alternative History' available. Writers like James Phillip and Stuart Slade offer reasonable plots to follow.
Stuart Slade's series of a Britain that came out of the war in 1940, and the aftermath are quite entertaining. James Phillip starts his alternative world with some very loud bangs over Cuba in 1962.....

[pax britanica]

I think the PM and cabinet ought to reflect on Churchills words today as Conservative party politics threatens the whole nations well being.

Lots of interesting ideas about WW2 , The Czechs had a powerful and very modern army in 1938 and some very comprehensive border defences. Thier view is that if UK and France had attacker Germany in the Rhineland the Czechs from the South east and the generals would have dumped Adolf .
However its always easy to be wise after the event and there are so many ifs, could a 90% Hurricane RAF have won the BoB if it happened in 1938.
Did Chamberlains prevarication actually rescue s giving us time to get rganised

We will never know

[Pontius Navigator]

PB, more Hurricanes, more kills, faster turnaround time and arguably the more flexible airframe.

[Chugalug2]

MPN11:-

Mr Hitler couldn't wait to start more invading.

He couldn't, because he desperately needed to plunder the central bank gold reserves of those invaded countries. He is credited with having pulled off an economic miracle by putting Germany back to work. In reality he (and the Reichsbank) fiddled the books and if he didn't get his hands on more plunder very soon then it would all come unravelled in his hands. Of course he had already started the process by stripping his Jews of everything they possessed and then moved on to do the same with the Jews of every country he occupied, even to the extent of using their very bodies for enhancing the war effort. I wouldn't mind betting that a good deal of that plunder still presides in the bank vaults of neutral Switzerland...

[rolling20]

Don't forget the Spanish Civil War was still ongoing in 1938. The Me109 went straight from trials to the conflict and these were lower powered versions. It wasn't until December1938 that the 109E became available for use in Spain. Are we suggesting the BoB of 1938 was fought on the same terms as in 1940? If so the earlier 109s may not have been up to the job!

[Pontius Navigator]

Rolling, that s the sort of question I was asking. Clearly the RAF would have been more reliant on Hurricanes. Then the numbers game.

[MPN11]

Chugalug2 :ok:

Thanks, an interesting dimension which tends to be missed when we’re all doing “dagga-dagga”. Such practicalities tend to get missed in the noise of HE!

[GeeRam]

Rolling, that s the sort of question I was asking. Clearly the RAF would have been more reliant on Hurricanes. Then the numbers game.

Well, by the mid-summer of 1938 the RAF still had only received just 50 Hurricanes into service, all with 2-bladed Watts prop....so the RAF would have been heavily reliant on its Gladiators and Fury biplane's.

[Pontius Navigator]

Well, by the mid-summer of 1938 the RAF still had only received just 50 Hurricanes into service, all with 2-bladed Watts prop....so the RAF would have been heavily reliant on its Gladiators and Fury biplane's.
Geeram, but it was a year after the war started that Germany was in a position to invade UK.

[Martin the Martian]

You ought to trot over to alternatehistory.com. You'd like it there.

In the meantime, get yourself a copy of this one:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hitlers-War-Harry-Turtledove/dp/034092182X/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1530648374&sr=8-4&keywords=Hitler%27s+War

[thunderbird7]

An interesting read is Ulrich Steinhilper’s autobiographical ‘A Spitfire On My Tail.’ A Luftwaffe fighter pilot leading up to the Battle of Britain and ultimately shot down during it, he gives a fascinating account of the Luftwaffe before the war and in the early stages.

its staggering how unsophisticated they were - radios in planes were regarded with suspicion by Galland and the old Spanish hands. Mechanisation on the ground was sparse and coordination between units was poor.

I would agree with the comments that another couple of years would have seen them almost invincible but an earlier start? I don’t think they had the resources to have made it work.

[Danny42C]

Hard to guess what might have happened in 1938, but if France had reacted in 1936 (when Hitler re-occupied the Rhineland), it is reckoned that that he could have been stopped dead in his tracks - and WWII averted.

[rolling20]

Hard to guess what might have happened in 1938, but if France had reacted in 1936 (when Hitler re-occupied the Rhineland), it is reckoned that that he could have been stopped dead in his tracks - and WWII averted.
I am not sure what was the lesser of two evils. The conflict that was WW2, or no conflict and Von Braun perfected the V2 and it was potentially fitted with an atomic warhead?

[Martin the Martian]

Even in wartime the German atomic bomb project was far behind that of the Allies west AND east. Under peacetime rules I think it would have been a nonstarter.

[rolling20]

Even in wartime the German atomic bomb project was far behind that of the Allies west AND east. Under peacetime rules I think it would have been a nonstarter.
That may be so, but Hitler didn't play by the rules. The Manhattan Project only came about due to WW2, so if the Americans had not entered, then the development would have been a non starter.

[SASless]

If Hitler had waited till the U-Boaft Fleet was complete....perhaps all this other talk would be moot.

He almost won as it was but lost the Naval War due to having far too few Subs at the start.

Llkewise.....had FDR not violated the Neutrality Act....by providing resources, ships, tanks, and other armaments, and naval units for escorts.....the outcome of the early part of the War would have been altered as well.

Consider Hitler could have not declared War on the United States and probably we would have been delayed further from getting involved.

[julianrfox]

Agree with SASless - one of my relatives was in the Kriegsmarine in the late '30s and he told me that the plan was to begin hostilities in '42 when the U-boot fleet was at the required strength. Earlier start would have meant even less capability to interrupt supply chains.

[Pontius Navigator]

As the tread has drifted to a delayed start, what if they had organised the Reichsmarine into a fleet rather than a commerce raiders? Bismarck and Tirpitz, together with the heavy cruisers could have posed a considerable threat to the RN. To add an air element, they might have had an aircraft carrier too, but what aircraft?

[Heathrow Harry]

As the tread has drifted to a delayed start, what if they had organised the Reichsmarine into a fleet rather than a commerce raiders? Bismarck and Tirpitz, together with the heavy cruisers could have posed a considerable threat to the RN. To add an air element, they might have had an aircraft carrier too, but what aircraft?
I seem to remember they were looking at JU87's for the strike element

[Green Flash]

What Harry said. The Hindenburg(?) I think was also going to have Fw-190's as the fighter. I wonder if they would have gone with a jet also/instead?

[Danny42C]

SASless (#22),

Has put the finger spot on it. We were fortunate that Hitler (and Kaiser Bill before him) were both land animals, and could not see that Britain could be brought to its knees without the need for invasion or mass bombing. Simply cut our ocean supply lines - the "Western Approaches" - and we starve in a few months.

Kipling warned about this a century ago (in "Big Steamers"):

"The sweets that you suck, and the joints that you carve
Are brought to you daily by all us Big Steamers
And if anyone hinders our coming, you'll starve".

Churchill said it was his worst worry of the War (and in '41 we were in danger of losing it - tonnage was being sunk far faster than it could be replaced). The convoy system - together with Bletchley Park was our eventual salvation IMHO.

Could we defend our lifeline again today, with what's left of our Navy and maritime
anti -submarine Squadrons ?

[Bing]

As the tread has drifted to a delayed start, what if they had organised the Reichsmarine into a fleet rather than a commerce raiders? Bismarck and Tirpitz, together with the heavy cruisers could have posed a considerable threat to the RN. To add an air element, they might have had an aircraft carrier too, but what aircraft?

They could have fielded commerce raiders in '38, and they would have caused some damage, a la the Graf Spee, until the Royal Navy hunted them down. Adding the carrier is changing the rules somewhat though, it's not 'what if WW2 had started in 1938' it's now 'what if Germany had the armed forces it planned for the mid-1940s in 1938' which isn't an invalid question, but in fairness you'd have to assume the UK and France were similarly better prepared as Germany would have been breaking various treaties to get to that point.

[SASless]

I am sensitive to the U-Boat thing as I live on the North Carolina coast very close to Cape Lookout which is part of what was known as the most dangerous waters in the entire World during 1942.

Ships were torpedoed within sight of land here very frequently in those days.....particularly tankers.

Millions of gallons of oil washed up along the shoreline along with bodies, empty lift boats, and other wreckage.

The wrecks make for good fishing and diving these days.

[Obi Wan Russell]

What Harry said. The Hindenburg(?) I think was also going to have Fw-190's as the fighter. I wonder if they would have gone with a jet also/instead?

Germany's first Carrier was named Graf Zeppelin, she was launched in 1938 but never completed for many reasons, not least passive aggressive opposition from Goering's Luftwaffe. She was intended to be the first of four, a second vessel was laid down (to be named Peter Strasser according to some reports) but eventually scrapped on the slip to divert resources into U Boat production. Graf Zeppelin was captured by the Soviets in Poland at the end of the war, and eventually sunk in the Baltic as a target in 1947.

The air group would have been a sqn of Bf-109T fighters, with extended wings that folded, and a sqn of JU-87C Stukas for both Dive and Torpedo Bombing, also with folding wings. The aircraft were built, but were just absorbed into the Luftwaffe. Ultimately we can thank Herr Goering for preventing the Kriegsmarine from acquiring any carriers; as commerce raiders they would have been a lot more effective than Battleships.