PDA

View Full Version : weather forecast quality


fuelevaporator
16th Apr 2018, 16:06
seen from a pilot perspective for a time window of plus/minus 1hr - suggest to use a more narrow band which has a correlation with minimum available „reserve fuel related flexibility window“ - there are:

- perfect forecasts;
- too optimistic forecasts, sometimes called „political forecasts“;
- too pessimistic forecasts

while too pessimistic forecasts are best friends for the pilot nowadays the aim for cost efficiency favours too optimistic forecasts, leading to things like planning without alternate if destination has two sufficiently independant runways.

since there are pages available allowing an easy comparison between forecasts and actual weather it should be not too difficult to find potentially lethal time frames for arrivals - following now „plus/minus 30‘ around possible arrivals at every minute of the day according to „tempo“ definitions - in forecasts allowing a landing versus metars normally prohibiting a landing.

1. did I miss such a knowledge base eventually existing allready?

2. suggest that we pilots try to set up such a base in „wiki - style“, each starting at own base..

3. even better this quality marker is derived automatically and published for pilots and passengers..

fuelevaporator
16th Apr 2018, 16:35
for some airports „TS“ in metar can be - felt - 50nm away from the field, but suggest to use it anyway as such a „potentially lethal“ time for landing if not forecasted, as in worst case TS could sit over the field..

sonicbum
16th Apr 2018, 16:57
What about creating a survey on forecast weather vs actual weather at landing ? Could that help ?

fuelevaporator
16th Apr 2018, 19:18
What about creating a survey on forecast weather vs actual weather at landing ? Could that help ?

eventually some brainstorming required as should be easy and reflect pilots problem who could be ordering fuel 2 hours before or 6 hours before landing..

BluSdUp
16th Apr 2018, 20:53
I think you just invented the local Met Office!?
If you fly in Europe , I fail to understand what you are trying to fix.
Most pilots I fly with does not have the foggiest idea about weather, so they are the last I am going to ask!

I fly LIDO so the forecast enroute WX and wind is excellent.
With regards to local inaccuracy , load her up.
WX forecast is NOT an accurate science.
But it is based on basic met AND local statistics! Just as you propose!

If other regions have issues , I would not know.