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Highway1
7th Mar 2018, 13:34
Jean-Claude Juncker said last week that a retaliation was on the cards, saying of Trump's move: "This is a stupid process. But we can also do it. We will now impose tariffs on motorcycles - Harley Davidson, on blue jeans - Levis, on Bourbon.

"We can also do stupid. We also have to be this stupid."



far be if for me to disagree with such an august gentlemen but Levis haven't been produced in the USA for 15 years...

meadowrun
7th Mar 2018, 14:03
"Bourbon" Jean-Clod?
How's your wine industry doing these days?


That comedy aside...bigger problem here is the Aluminium and steel thingie threat.


Thing about trade wars is that it is usually the height of lunacy to initiate them with your friends.........with those long standing, quality suppliers of needed goods.....your partners, your allies.
It never ends well and your friends are always less friendly afterwards.

Lonewolf_50
7th Mar 2018, 14:16
I am hoping that the US Congress, both houses, push back and work against this apparent plan by the White House. The beginning of "trade wars' seems to me a lose/lose situation, not even a win/lose situation. As to Herr Juncker, he's playing to crowds, just as that guy in Washington is.

Sallyann1234
7th Mar 2018, 14:39
One for the lawyers I think.
The tariff will apply to aluminum imports, so aluminium should not be affected.

MG23
7th Mar 2018, 15:39
Thing about trade wars is that it is usually the height of lunacy to initiate them with your friends.........with those long standing, quality suppliers of needed goods.....your partners, your allies.

Countries don't have friends. And most of the world doesn't want American 'friendship', it wants American money.

The best thing that could happen for the long term is for America to stop buying everyone else's stuff, so those countries have to build a real economy rather than relying on being a cheap factory for Americans.

NutLoose
7th Mar 2018, 16:53
Levi's and Harley's are small fry, what the World needs to simply decide that in future the currency of all oil purchases will be in some other currency rather than the dollar, he can print dollars to buy oil, but not Euros, Roubles, Sterling, Yen etc. That or put an equal tariff on everything produced in the USA that contains steel or aluminium.

MG23
7th Mar 2018, 16:56
You realize North America is already pretty much self-sufficient in oil, right?

And that demand is about to collapse?

lomapaseo
7th Mar 2018, 17:01
The best thing that could happen for the long term is for America to stop buying everyone else's stuff, so those countries have to build a real economy rather than relying on being a cheap factory for Americans.

and when those countries that lose our business find themselves broke and unable to produce, where will the US turn in order to purchase raw materials that it's own industry cant' afford to make and sell?

Eventually we'll just go back to being hunter-gatherers in mud huts.

me thinks that the issue is "free trade" with enforcement of rules.

MG23
7th Mar 2018, 17:20
and when those countries that lose our business find themselves broke and unable to produce, where will the US turn in order to purchase raw materials that it's own industry cant' afford to make and sell?

Why would they be broke? And why would they not sell raw materials?

The Chinese are pulling vast amounts of raw materials out of some of the poorest countries on Earth. It clearly isn't a problem.

Eventually we'll just go back to being hunter-gatherers in mud huts.No, we're going to be hunter-gatherers in spaceships.

The trade era is coming to an end. The future is local production of pretty much everything, because no-one's going to want to spend millions of dollars and wait months for delivery to ship containers around the solar system. Might as well get used to it.

It's only in the last hundred years or so that trade became a large part of most people's lives, because centralized production became so much more efficient than local production. Through most of history, people only traded for the things they couldn't make themselves. And we're heading back to that lifestyle.

Jetex_Jim
7th Mar 2018, 17:45
It's only in the last hundred years or so that trade became a large part of most people's lives, because centralized production became so much more efficient than local production. Through most of history, people only traded for the things they couldn't make themselves. And we're heading back to that lifestyle.

That's an interesting proposition. Were you by chance raised in a commune by hippies in the 1960s?

Hempy
7th Mar 2018, 18:15
Countries don't have friends. And most of the world doesn't want American 'friendship', it wants American money.

The best thing that could happen for the long term is for America to stop buying everyone else's stuff, so those countries have to build a real economy rather than relying on being a cheap factory for Americans.

You and Trump both seem to share the same delusion that the rest of the world can’t get on without you. There won’t be any ‘trade war’, if America wants to price itself out of the trading game sobeit...the rest of the world will just play by themselves.

The latest rant from Trump is that Canada and Mexico don’t buy the same amount of goods from the US as the US buys from Canada and Mexico, thereby creating a trade deficit with those two countries. Well no shit, Sherlock...Canada: Population 36.3 million. Mexico: Population 128 million. USA: Population 323 million. You work it out, (stable) genius :rolleyes:

Jetex_Jim
7th Mar 2018, 18:21
You and Trump both seem to share the same delusion that the rest of the world can’t get on without you. There won’t be any ‘trade war’, if America wants to price itself out of the trading game sobeit...the rest of the world will just play by themselves.

This is the same kind of argument that Boris Johnson and Farage used (in the topic that must not be mentioned). They too proposed the notion that the EU was going to be so mortified by the UK's imminent departure that they'd cut any deal to keep the UK sweet. That kind of argument appeals to the arrogant and dare I say ignorant.

Uncle Fred
7th Mar 2018, 18:34
Perhaps this is grossly unfair, but when I look at the likes of Jean-Claude Juncker I always think of someone who has money laundering written all over him. After all, he is a banker from Luxembourg and whenever I see the number of banks packed into countries the size of a decent airport car park I cannot help but wonder what business is being conducted. Surely that amount of banking power is not there to help the few citizens with savings and credit card accounts.

Maybe these institutions are vital cogs in the engine of our global business world but then why are they sequestered in these city-states? Would love to pull open the historical records of these municipalities and ask Jean-Claude what all of it means.

Trade wars are rarely, if ever, good things. However, so far no one or nothing holds Mr. Trump back. Heretofore there has been nothing for which he has been held accountable and there is seemingly a good chance that there will not be. He can do what he wants, when he wants, and the faithful fall in line. Give it a day or two and the usual organs of propaganda will fall in to tell the good burghers of the U.S. that he is doing the right thing. Murdoch's minions at Fox being what I mean here of course and they are a 24/7 soundtrack of hosannas for their Messiah. Trade policy can be murky and with the base's fav interpreters from Fox "explaining" it, that base will say crack on even if it is inimical to its interests.

racedo
7th Mar 2018, 18:53
Threatening tarrifs to get a new deal or renegotiate one is just another element of negotiation.

Forces other party to react to prevent it happening.

Similar to a company threatening to move all its business elsewhere unless they get what they want.

Then it goes down to negotiations to get an agreed deal.

People may hate the strategy but like the deal.

vapilot2004
7th Mar 2018, 19:51
far be if for me to disagree with such an august gentlemen but Levis haven't been produced in the USA for 15 years...

Irregardless of where they're produced, the company generated nearly $5 billion in revenues last year and directly employs 13,000 workers in the US.

We currently impose over 150 tariffs and duties on steel imports. According to the majority of economists and industry analysts, increased tariffs will only lead to the loss of many times more jobs in the fabrication and manufacturing sectors than would be gained by the relative handful in production.

Trump's numbers cited are either complete fabrications or half-truths, by the way. He claims to want to reinvigorate aluminum smelting jobs, but the truth is, only 3 in 100 of aluminum industrial jobs involve the energy-intensive process, the rest, 97 out of 100, the jobs that would be at risk, are in fabrication and use of the metal, which, by the way, comes mainly from one of our healthiest trading partners, Canada.

Cohn was able to reign in Trump's proclivity for economic nationalism. Several of the top choices to replace Cohn are free traders, so it looks like "all the best people" are loathe to work for a president that has his head up his ass when it comes to economics and trade.

Uncle Fred
7th Mar 2018, 21:54
Irrespective vice irregardless Old House.

I know it is pedantic and I make my share, but we do have our standards here on Jet Blast :cool:

Mostly Harmless
7th Mar 2018, 22:11
https://images.axios.com/35WZItIIug1DNd-HxCZz9EgAzsY=/0x0:3200x1800/1920x1080/2018/03/02/1520007613994.png

The sequels always suck.

Two's in
7th Mar 2018, 22:19
The EU has smartly targeted what are specifically political products aimed at the States or Districts where, what laughingly passes for adult leadership these days, will be potentially held accountable for local layoffs or losses. All politics are local.

jack11111
7th Mar 2018, 23:20
I am waiting for the "invisible hand of the market" to make an appearance. What a fairy tale.

meadowrun
7th Mar 2018, 23:48
Uncle Fred
Junks was never was a banker.
Lawyer who has never actually practiced law and then career politician.
So, worse.


"He studied Law at the University of Strasbourg, graduating with a Masters in Law in 1979, and although he was sworn into the Luxembourg Bar Council in 1980, he never practised as a lawyer."

Uncle Fred
8th Mar 2018, 00:05
Thank you Meadow. I know I should have checked myself, but for some reason I took it as received wisdom that this bland bureaucratic figure was banking in Luxembourg. As you say, it's perhaps even worse!

Eddie Dean
8th Mar 2018, 00:59
Just goes to show, perhaps Mr Trump is the master negotiator, go in hard then ease back.
I was recently negotiating on getting a new bore drilled and capped, upfront price 350K, asked the contractor if he would negotiate the job, his answer " sure mate, get some other cvnt to do it". After a few beers around the campfire he started to ease back a bit.

tdracer
8th Mar 2018, 01:43
Not a Trump fan (no, I didn't vote for him), but I don't think he is nearly as dumb or dense as his critics claim.
I'm seeing Trump as more of a master of 'Bait and Switch'. While many (including most of the MSM) obsess over his innate tweets, like a magician he's quietly doing what he really wants to do with over there where no one is looking.
It's been mildly amusing to watch his critics claim he'd accomplished nothing during his first year, only to suddenly scream about all the things he did do while they weren't looking...

NutLoose
8th Mar 2018, 11:54
The problem is it is okay sticking taffifs on everything imported and bringing production back to the good old USA, but when your Nike trainers are made by good old Americans and cost 30 to 40 times their previous price, (when they were previously made by children is some flea bitten back of beyond third world country factory for pence ) reality will start to bite home for the American electorate.

Lonewolf_50
8th Mar 2018, 13:17
I was listening to NPR this morning. Former advisor to Pres GW Bush was on discussing some of the trade policies he'd been working on back then, and the grief he got over opposing tariff increases. His remark was: "It's easy to start a trade war, but it's really tough to win one." I think Mr Cohn's resignation was informed by feeling the same way about trade wars: he doesn't think that starting one will be helpful.

WhatsaLizad?
8th Mar 2018, 13:32
Not a Trump fan (no, I didn't vote for him), but I don't think he is nearly as dumb or dense as his critics claim.
I'm seeing Trump as more of a master of 'Bait and Switch'. While many (including most of the MSM) obsess over his innate tweets, like a magician he's quietly doing what he really wants to do with over there where no one is looking.
It's been mildly amusing to watch his critics claim he'd accomplished nothing during his first year, only to suddenly scream about all the things he did do while they weren't looking...


I held my nose and voted for him, and agree totally with your post.


I'm claiming fame to coining the following.


Trump is to the media as is a "laser" pointer to cats. :E


(Anyone else notice what happens when you type "laser" on PPrune? Laser Blaster, Laser Beam, Laser Fusion?)

oicur12.again
8th Mar 2018, 14:24
To understand the factors at play affecting global trade requires an understanding of the Triffin Paradox and the position that the greenback has in the whole system of global currency flows and specifically the crucial role played by the petrodollar.

The Trump administration will be at the helm as the US dollar loses its world reserve status as global trade moves towards alternatives including IMF SDR’s.

A huge nail in the coffin will come when China launches its own crude oil futures contract in several weeks paving the way for huge oil trade’s to be conducted without the petrodollars involvement.

The biggest consumer of oil for the next generation will be China and they sure as hell don’t want to be propping up the failing USD to purchase their energy.

There is a reason why Trump tweeted this late last year:

“Would very much appreciate Saudi Arabia doing their IPO of Aramco with the New York Stock Exchange. Important to the United States!”

There is a distinct possibility that the worlds largest company may IPO in Shanghai instead of New York or London. This would literally signal the end of the greenback as global reserve currency.

“The best thing that could happen for the long term is for America to stop buying everyone else's stuff, so those countries have to build a real economy rather than relying on being a cheap factory for Americans.”

Ok, lets give that a try and see what happens . . . .

“what the World needs to simply decide that in future the currency of all oil purchases will be in some other currency rather than the dollar”

Precisely and this is exactly what the motivating force behind the conflict in the Middle East is about.

“You realize North America is already pretty much self-sufficient in oil, right?”

On paper such an argument could be made (well not really) however there is a big difference between the oil products America imports and the oil products America exports.

America is very much reliant on external oil markets if you want cheap energy to continue the status quo.

“ . . . bringing production back to the good old USA,”

. . . . . will take generations and will not be seen in our lifetimes.


“ . . . . but when your Nike trainers are made by good old Americans and cost 30 to 40 times their previous price”

Exactly.

b1lanc
9th Mar 2018, 02:35
Not a Trump fan (no, I didn't vote for him), but I don't think he is nearly as dumb or dense as his critics claim.
I'm seeing Trump as more of a master of 'Bait and Switch'. While many (including most of the MSM) obsess over his innate tweets, like a magician he's quietly doing what he really wants to do with over there where no one is looking.
It's been mildly amusing to watch his critics claim he'd accomplished nothing during his first year, only to suddenly scream about all the things he did do while they weren't looking...
It's more than mildly amusing. It's a joy to watch the apoplectic MSM idiots. The Gray Lady is already calling it a Trump gamble and a risk. Not master of bait and switch. He's a master of negotiating deals to his (and in this case the US). No sitting American president has ever meet with a NK leader. If it happens, it will be historic and it will have happened directly as a result of this administrations policies both with NK and probably China.

This is not a trade war. Canada and Mexico are exempted. Other countries can apply for exemptions. As Elon Musk put it, why should an import duty of 25% be applied to US cars imported into China but only a 2.5% duty on Chinese cars imported into the US? Everything is on the table. This is not just about steel and aluminum. Let's see if the F-35/FA-18 suddenly resurfaces on the Canadian table.

sitigeltfel
9th Mar 2018, 06:24
Trump to impose a tariff of 25% on cheap Chinese steel...wow!

Here's something for his detractors and Remainiacs to digest..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/07/european-union-import-duties-chinese-steel-port-talbot-tata

reynoldsno1
10th Mar 2018, 02:36
China accounts for 2.9% of steel imports to the USA ...

Jetex_Jim
10th Mar 2018, 11:33
Trump to impose a tariff of 25% on cheap Chinese steel...wow!

Here's something for his detractors and Remainiacs to digest..

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/07/european-union-import-duties-chinese-steel-port-talbot-tata

So Trump is following the EU with tariffs, so what's that about Remainiacs?

But you are not alone. I've also seen a confused Nigel Farage critiquing the EU for imposing tariffs while in the next tweet praising Trump for imposing tariffs!

ExXB
11th Mar 2018, 12:08
China accounts for 2.9% of steel imports to the USA ...
... and the US exports more steel to Canada than they import. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

West Coast
12th Mar 2018, 03:06
and the US exports more steel to Canada than they import.

I believe the latest is that Canada will be exempt.

meadowrun
12th Mar 2018, 10:56
For now. Until Trump can figure out a legal way to use it as NAFTA blackmail.

ExXB
12th Mar 2018, 13:58
And Canada will impose their own tariffs on US steel, and use it as legal NAFTA blackmail. To make it all sillier much of the US steel imported by Canada is used to produce ....

Automobiles for the US market produced by US companies’ Canadian factories.

vapilot2004
14th Mar 2018, 09:58
After reading about the special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district, right smack dab in the middle of an area once host to many a thriving steel mill, now part of the rust belt, a rather dark and nefarious thought crossed my mind.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's willy-nilly tariff games are nothing more than a ginned up fake election promise to voters in that district - home of many former steel workers and their progeny, forced to move on after the mill shuttering and shutdowns, due mainly to foreign competition.

A Democratic win would bloody the noses of Trump and the GOP in a district that the president took by 20 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Lonewolf_50
14th Mar 2018, 16:59
As of this morning, the Dems are declaring victory in a very close vote. We'll see if there's a challenge. Pittsburgh had to remake itself for a few decades, it's not quite the steel town I visited in the late 70's.

Krystal n chips
14th Mar 2018, 18:04
After reading about the special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district, right smack dab in the middle of an area once host to many a thriving steel mill, now part of the rust belt, a rather dark and nefarious thought crossed my mind.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's willy-nilly tariff games are nothing more than a ginned up fake election promise to voters in that district - home of many former steel workers and their progeny, forced to move on after the mill shuttering and shutdowns, due mainly to foreign competition.

A Democratic win would bloody the noses of Trump and the GOP in a district that the president took by 20 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

That's a very plausible summary.

During the campaign, well what was officially called a campaign, the UK's Channel 4 did several pieces on parts of America where the dream had gone very sour.

Pennsylvania featured a couple of times therefore and because of the ethos of the reporting, they interviewed real people whose lives had been affected by the closures....not some gash politician spouting the party line.

Not unsurprisingly, they were all in favour of voting for him. One mill owner said he was now recruiting, albeit in very small numbers, on the basis of the promises.

Which begs a serious question with regard to steel.

How many mills have actually re-opened ?

vapilot2004
14th Mar 2018, 22:09
How many mills have actually re-opened ?


Most are in such a state of disrepair, that the prospects of a new blast furnace facility coming on line are very, very slim KnC. Not only that, but the town of Pittsburgh, while still a proud manufacturing center, has long since moved past its heyday nickname of the "Steel City", seeking instead to move into modern, technology, medical, and service-based industries. Today, US Steel employment is but a fraction (circa 10%) of the current top employer, UPMC, a medical teaching and research hospital.

Pittsburgh had to remake itself for a few decades, it's not quite the steel town I visited in the late 70's.

Indeed, sir. From President Obama's speech, a year after the catastrophic finagler's nightmare of 2008:

Pittsburgh stands as a bold example of how to create new jobs and industries while transitioning to a 21st-century economy. As a city that has transformed itself from the city of steel to a center for high-tech innovation, including green technology, education and training, and research and development, Pittsburgh will provide both a beautiful backdrop and a powerful example for our work.

It's important to note how far we have come in preventing a global economic catastrophe. A year ago, our economy was in a freefall. Some economists were predicting a second great depression. Immediate action was required to rescue the economy.

In the United States, we passed an historic Recovery Act that quickly put money in the hands of working families and is putting Americans to work all across the country, including in Pittsburgh and the surrounding area. That includes companies like East Penn Manufacturing, a third-generation family business which is now building batteries for the hybrid, energy-efficient vehicles of the 21st century. That includes Serious Materials manufacturing plant outside of Pittsburgh that was shuttered last year, which is now rehiring the workers who lost their jobs and giving them a new mission producing some of the most energy-efficient windows in the world.

And at medical laboratories in Pittsburgh, scientists are making advances in tissue regeneration which will help people across the globe, including our troops wounded in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Lonewolf_50
15th Mar 2018, 12:00
Well, as I suspected, the Chinese have one response to a proposed trade war: Bring it! (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-is-ready-for-a-trade-war-with-the-us-%E2%80%94-and-it-could-hurt-americans/ar-BBKeHhO?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp)