The Latest Act of Desperation

[mngmt mole]

It seems that management are seeking out the more "junior" pilots and engaging them in conversation, the gist of which is to ask them what they are paying for rent, and then suggesting that such sums are affordable and reasonable, as well as the size of apartment (450 sq/ft in Tung Chung, 20K/mo...wow, you LUCKY chap!). They are also telling them that the company is "overstaffed" with pilots and that they are luck to have the job.

This is yet another sign of a management in the throes of desperation (and who amongst you upstairs can be convinced to take part in such a pathetic charade?, the cast of usual characters comes to mind). This airline and it's flight operation is about to implode. Now all they have left in their jar of tricks is a pathetic attempt at reverse psychology. One of the FO's who was involved told me that the manager "reeked" of desperation and insincerity, and it was all he could do to not laugh in his face (quote).

So AT, RH and co, is this really what your vast educational background has brought you to?, trying to manipulate younger pilots who have already made up their mind to leave anyway (as was the FO who relayed this story, awaiting course date back home). It would be funny if it wasn't SO sad and SO pathetic.

Know that every FO/SO is onto your little game, is contemptuous of it, and the managers involved. You lost nearly everyone of our aircrew over the past few years. You have no credibility, and this little stunt only confirms to most of them that the sooner they get out of CX the better. Don't try telling a Canadian/USA/European that he/she should be grateful living in a shoebox, with poor pay, poor benefits and even poorer chances of a stable and properous career. For that they know the answer lies with an airline back home, which at least has sane managers. Needless to say, not much chance of ever finding that here.

[Scoreboard]

Easy answer to when they go like that is point that they are such good managers that they should help out the company so much they should live in our shoeboxes as well so they can do their bit for TTW.

Managment normally reply “dont take that tone with me...”

[Shep69]

A good life’s lesson is ya gotta be careful who you trust.

And that not everyone is as honest as you might be.

[cxorcist]

Amen brother. So true. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been burned by trusting and being loyal to people because I expected them to be like me.

[betpump5]

There seems to be a quite a lot of unsanctioned questioning going round at the moment...anyone looked at the recent letter from the Chairman to the GMO?

[22N114E]

Who ever actually penned Darryl's letter did so with exemplary skill. What a pity the distribution list stopped at the DFO!

[cxorcist]

CX is losing billions, and the Swires have no idea what is going on? If so, they are either complicit in the losses or totally incompetent at managing their own businesses. I strongly believe it’s the former. The Swires are pillaging this airline of its cash through fuel and currency hedges. What other explanation makes sense?

[spleener]

CR. Maybe time to take a breath and step back?
Swires know exactly what is going on. It is about a long term strategy and return on investment. Ask yourself where Swires are concentrating their efforts and with which major partner. HK has had its day and CX doesn’t fit with the geopolitics. The Mainland is where profit is to be made.
There is a lot more to this if you wish to dig: CX is a mere pawn.

[cxorcist]

Please expand on this... I have looked extensively and cannot figure out what the Swires are getting at. Taking all the cash out of the airline only makes sense if the intention is to sell the airline for planes, parts, and routes. The problem with that is that shareholder value is destroyed along with the balance sheet. So unless the Swire shares can retain value while the public shares are trashed, I don’t get it. Obviously, the employees will be left with no place to sit when the music stops playing.

[spleener]

Follow the money. Take a look at a cash strapped supply chain company in Singapore with strong Swire Connections and look at the time line comparisons with Swire partnerships and takeover deals.

[cxorcist]

Well, that’s juicy. I’ll look. Got any key words for my search?

[Threethirty]

The word for your search is alchemy

[Frogman1484]

Ask yourself why was Haeco moved out of cx into Swire , why was the trail of us signing in at the airport terminated? Who owns HAS busses?

Follow the money! They know exactly what is goining on. The hedge is going to be the biggest heist in aviation history.

We have no new aircraft orders beyond 2020...that is when we become a Chinese airline.

[mngmt mole]

We already are.

[Freehills]

HAS is 100% owned by CX.

There are 49 aircraft on order beyond 2020 (5 A350, 21 B777X, 23 A321)

Cathay & Dragon became Chinese airlines in 1997 - the registration on the aircraft starts with a B from then

(not defending CX, but do try and get facts correct)

[mngmt mole]

I see UPS ordered an additional 14 -8 Freighters yesterday (and they pay high salaries and proper benefits). Obviously their management are idiots :rolleyes:

[Loopdeloop]

There’ll be a fair number of CX pilots flying those new aircraft I would think!

[mngmt mole]

Especially when the US Govt approves the hiring of foreign pilots, which is awaiting approval.

[Glass Half Empty]

until Trump vetoes it!

[bafanguy]

Especially when the US Govt approves the hiring of foreign pilots, which is awaiting approval.

Do you have any background info on that ? Perhaps a link to a government website where it's discussed ?

[SweepTheLeg]

Guess each Major’s 10,000 applications on file isn’t enough.

But you guys keep planning on the the US Majors hiring foreigners... let us know how that works for you.

[mngmt mole]

Not even going to get into the debate. All you need to do is correlate the number of retirements, the planned number of hires, the fact that the military is recalling thousands, and the fact that there has been a dearth of people learning to fly for 15-20 years. Even without the fact that I have it on good authority that it is being discussed by the airlines and the government, the facts mentioned above clearly say something drastic has to happen. I realise that you 'americans' don't like the idea of 'ferreners' coming over, but it will happen. They did it in the 1960's, so it's not a precedent being set.

[bafanguy]

Even without the fact that I have it on good authority that it is being discussed by the airlines and the government, the facts mentioned above clearly say something drastic has to happen.

It's difficult to dispute what you say without seeing the same info you have.

Can you share your "good authority" with us ?

[mngmt mole]

Actually I can't, but that's irrelevant to the facts. Ultimately, i'll be proven right, or wrong. I have no problem with that.

[iflylow]

You Cathay guys just can't help yourselves. Wow. Was it a perquisite to joining CX to :mad: as much as you do?

Glad you have it on "good authority" that it's going to happen. "Latest Act of Desperation" indeed... just from mngmt mole and his like. You got any financial advice while you're at it?

[Air Profit]

A very good and long time friend is the head of training of a major US airline. I can confirm what MM is saying. Timeline unknown, but it will come to pass. As he mentioned, you only have to look at the facts of the industry and the manning situation to realise that such a move is more than likely. Not sure why such a suggestion is getting you guys so riled up. It's like you have a personal agenda that is at stake (oh, like management of our airline). :rolleyes:

[iflylow]

Yeah... sorry calling B.S. out on that too. No Legacy carrier, Southwest, UPS, or FedEx will ever be sponsoring foreign pilots. EVER. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at these carriers. But keep thinking otherwise, Air Profit!

There are a few regionals taking E3 visas from a few Aussies who are willing to whore themselves out at the expense of all other pilots, but that's as far as these foreign pilots will only go in the USA - the subpar regional level.

Like another poster said above, the above airlines all have 10,000+ applications on file, and that will never change. There will never be a shortage at that level.

Keep believing in your self importance however and how much the US really needs you... it is entertaining to read how completely out of touch you are in your CX bubble.

[Air Profit]

And we are all losing sleep over your calling a 'bs'. :rolleyes: And your "10000" will prove to be about 1 yrs worth of actual available hires. Again, go and have a think about the actual facts of the demographic tidal wave that's about to hit the industry. Regardless, none of us really KNOW what is going to happen, even you.

[cxorcist]

It very well may happen at some point in the future, but I would be very surprised if it were ‘imminent’, certainly not with Trump in office. What it won’t do is change things materially at CX now. There is plenty of pilot hiring, both in the US and around the globe. If you want to leave CX, you can unless you are a SO with little to no previous time.

So in reality, those of us still here are simply finishing up our careers OR gambling against bad odds that CX will turn around its fortunes. The seniority system, ‘golden handcuffs’, and fear of change are the only things keeping reasonable pilots at CX.

Those coming in newly to CX are either using it to start their careers and leave OR are absolutely insane. There is very little that is good for a new hire at CX. It truly is a job of last resort and a place I could not in good conscience recommend to anyone.

[Air Profit]

cxorcist, completely agree. Very well put, and a warning to the wise. Anyone who comes here WILL regret that decision. Save yourselves the agony (especially if you are married) and establish a career with an employer deserving of your dedication and loyalty. CX is not that place. They will chew you up and spit you out.

[bafanguy]

A very good and long time friend is the head of training of a major US airline. I can confirm what MM is saying. Timeline unknown, but it will come to pass.

AP,

Can you at least reveal the context in which your airline friend made his remarks ?

Was he merely musing on the potential need for expats at the US legacy level at some undefined point in the future...or saying there are processes now being put in motion with the appropriate government agencies to allow expats other than the Aussies' E3 demographic ?

Throw us some crumbs here ! :confused:

[Air Profit]

He's the head of training for one of the US majors. All the US airlines have had preliminary discussions with the Government, laying out their concerns regarding replacing the record number of retirements about to hit the industry. There are not enough qualified pilots in the US to fill all the slots opening up over the next 5-10 yrs. I have no idea what the eventual outcome will be, or the timeline, but something has to happen with this issue in order for the US airline industry to continue to function.

[iflylow]

Air Profit

Wow, where to start. I know the command course at CX is about how well you can bullsh*t, but outside the Cathay bubble, it can be spotted a mile away. It's painful how ignorant you come across.

So there are secret meetings going on with The Big 3, Southwest, FedEx and Delta with the US Government about hiring foreigners, and your "friend" at an unnamed "major" and you are the only ones who know. Sounds legit.

As I'm sure you're aware, the above airlines have about 70,000 pilots. Let's be conservative and say 50% of of these pilots retire in the next 10 years, or 3,500 pilots a year.

The average compensation these days at these airlines in over 200K, topping out above 400K, with great work rules and retirement, etc. Do you really think they will not be able to find qualified Americans for these positions? Are they that undesirable?

I mean I know, the US has an almost non existent military, a tiny GA scene, and basically zero aviation universities. It's going to be extremely hard for them to recruit 3,500 pilots a year. Where are they going to come from? Thank goodness for CX pilots! Never mind all poorly qualified guys/girls with thousands and thousands of hours of TPIC airline time who have been waiting for years to get called by one of these airlines.

Maybe you should post on Yammer how CX better be careful before all their pilots get sponsored visas from the US Legacies, Air Profit! It would be par for the course with the rest of the garbage on there.

[tiredofstupidity]

Actually, you are both wrong. It is not all foreign pilots that will be permitted, just Canadians. Negotiators have often tried to have pilots exempted in a similar fashion to other professionals who are able to work in the U.S. but the ALPA lobbyists always made sure to squash it. Not so anymore. Canadian pilots will soon be welcome to live and work in the U.S. It's mostly inconsequential as the Canadian aviation labour market while healthy is small. It is pretty interesting for CX though. Plenty of Canadians in HK willing to go fly the freighter in exchange for being back in North Am...

[gtseraf]

quite sad to see this bickering, just like a bunch of kindergarten kids. I am pretty sure the people running airlines do not bicker like this but actually engage, constructively, to achieve mutual goals. They must love seeing this nonsense going on, divide and conquer at it's best.

When will the greater pilot group worldwide wake up?

[Who stole my meds]

Well said.

Divided we all fall. That's why the CX bosses are winning & you're losing.

[Shep69]

What does Trump have to do with refusing this? If there is no other way to crew planes with 1500-hour pilots, don't you think he wants the airlines, and the economy, to keep flying, too? Do you think CX, China and Korea actually want Americans flying there? Or do they need them?

Although US immigration law is rooted in statute (and sometimes influenced by court decisions) the policy of admission (i.e. the specifics of who gets in on the appropriate visa and how many) is largely determined by executive policy and is an executive function.

Trump is the chief executive.

[SweepTheLeg]

Actually, you are both wrong. It is not all foreign pilots that will be permitted, just Canadians. Negotiators have often tried to have pilots exempted in a similar fashion to other professionals who are able to work in the U.S. but the ALPA lobbyists always made sure to squash it. Not so anymore. Canadian pilots will soon be welcome to live and work in the U.S. It's mostly inconsequential as the Canadian aviation labour market while healthy is small. It is pretty interesting for CX though. Plenty of Canadians in HK willing to go fly the freighter in exchange for being back in North Am...

I read it on the internet so it must be true...

Keep grasping at straws!

[cxorcist]

What does Trump have to do with refusing this? If there is no other way to crew planes with 1500-hour pilots, don't you think he wants the airlines, and the economy, to keep flying, too? Do you think CX, China and Korea actually want Americans flying there? Or do they need them?

Trump is not a big fan of outsourcing jobs. It was one of the major tenets of his presidential campaign. I’d be surprised if he would sign any such legislation, not in his first term anyways.

[bafanguy]

All the US airlines have had preliminary discussions with the Government, laying out their concerns regarding replacing the record number of retirements about to hit the industry.

AP,

No doubt about it and it's been publicly covered. I didn't realize that's the talks to which you were referring.

The USAF and several major carriers (UAL & DL among them) here formed committees to examine this issue. I posted several articles somewhere in R & N discussing this.

To my knowledge, nothing definitive came of it all. The recent legislative effort to alter the 1500-hour law to get people in the system faster has fallen flat due to political wrangling. Not sure where that goes from here.

There's certainly pressure on the system. As far as I know, nothing definitive has been implemented to change the present course of events.

Seats WILL be filled here, I'm confident of that.

[Dilbert68]

There is no shortage of qualified pilots lining up at the US majors and there never will be. You can always dream that Delta or AA will come begging for you to join with a green card with a bow on it but it will NEVER happen.

The major US carriers are hiring a lot of pilots now and for the forseeable future. This may result in a shortage of pilots at the smaller feeder carriers. It is possible that there will not be enough pilots for these airlines and they MAY need to look outside the US, time will tell.

To get a job at one of the coveted majors is still highly sought after and competitive. There are plenty of pilots in the US to fill these vacancies.

[SMT Member]

So let me get this right: US airlines are moaning to their .gov there are not enough qualified pilots in the pipeline, and could they please get some from abroad?

In that case, were I the .gov, the following question would be asked in response: What have you done to address this problem. Please point me towards the ab-initio programs you're running. Oh, that's right, you can't. Well, in that case do see yourself out and solve your own self-inflicted problem, ya' daft pr1ck.

[Scoreboard]

Trump is not a big fan of outsourcing jobs. It was one of the major tenets of his presidential campaign. I’d be surprised if he would sign any such legislation, not in his first term anyways.

Actually he outsources much of his hotel staff...thats in the news regularly

[Luggage]

Yeah... sorry calling B.S. out on that too. No Legacy carrier, Southwest, UPS, or FedEx will ever be sponsoring foreign pilots. EVER. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at these carriers. But keep thinking otherwise, Air Profit!

There are a few regionals taking E3 visas from a few Aussies who are willing to whore themselves out at the expense of all other pilots, but that's as far as these foreign pilots will only go in the USA - the subpar regional level.

Like another poster said above, the above airlines all have 10,000+ applications on file, and that will never change. There will never be a shortage at that level.

Keep believing in your self importance however and how much the US really needs you... it is entertaining to read how completely out of touch you are in your CX bubble.

What a stupid and arrogant comment about Aussies 'whoring' themselves out on E3 visas. Firstly they dont get paid any less than an American pilot. Thats the law and a FACT!

Secondly they are hired because the simple fact is there are more jobs available than there are pilots to fill them which is why they are hiring them because it is not for 'CHEAP Labour' again pay rates prove this.

Thirdly and most importantly you have this arrogance that the world should be blessed with American pilots in China, ME, Asia ec but those guys are not 'whoring' just filling open available slots yet anybody in the US is doing it at the expense of other pilots.

That is not a very friendly attitude to have towards fellow pilots just trying to make a living. As somebody who has a fair few American friends Im thankful they dont have that attitude and genuinly great people.

Maybe you want to check that attitude at the door and be grateful they have contributed to your economy and society as a whole. Hopefully you will come around and recognise them for the positive contribution they are providing.

I am not a CX pilot by the way either.

[Frogman1484]

Well said Luggage!

[mngmt mole]

Dilbert. You sound like an ALPA rep, chapter and verse. As some above have said, you only have to look at the different parts of the equation to realise that there will be a point where the US airlines will not be able to source their pilots domestically. None of us (you either) know what will happen, but my money is on a change of visa category for qualified foreign pilots. It HAS happened in the past btw, so how can you be so sure it won't again? Time will tell.

[Gearupandorrf]

Luggage

Let's not forget all of the American Pilots who found themselves with Ansett and Australian Airlines during and after 1989.
There's a world of difference between acting as a strike breaker as opposed to filling a Seat that otherwise wouldn't anyone to fill it.

[SweepTheLeg]

Yeah all 10 of them, out of the 100,000 airline pilots back in the States.

How is it Australians are coming to the crap paying regionals in the States when there is this huge pilot shortage in Aus? To the point where you’re now recruiting foreigners?

Oh yeah there’s not a shortage, just a way for Aussie companies not to pay what the market demands.

Now think about how American pilots think about Aussies coming to the crap regionals only and doing that.

Pot meet Kettle.

[SweepTheLeg]

Dilbert. You sound like an ALPA rep, chapter and verse. As some above have said, you only have to look at the different parts of the equation to realise that there will be a point where the US airlines will not be able to source their pilots domestically. None of us (you either) know what will happen, but my money is on a change of visa category for qualified foreign pilots. It HAS happened in the past btw, so how can you be so sure it won't again? Time will tell.

Keep hoping! I guess you need some fantasy to get you through each day at CX.

[Air Profit]

Sweeptheleg, you know nothing of fact. Zero. I however have had a detailed conversation with a 35+ year friend, currently the head of training for one of the US majors. He has related FACT to me about the discussions and proposals that are being tendered. So, keep up the "anti-foreigner" bias that ALPA is famous for. A few thousand foreigners won't even blip the needle of what is needed over the next 15-20 yrs. Relax, they won't spil 'murica'....

[SweepTheLeg]

Keep telling yourself that... Let me know when it works out for you! You have some Mark Six lottery tickets for retirement too?

[Airbubba]

Let's not forget all of the American Pilots who found themselves with Ansett and Australian Airlines during and after 1989.
There's a world of difference between acting as a strike breaker as opposed to filling a Seat that otherwise wouldn't anyone to fill it.

Don't let any Ozmates BS you on this one, some will try. :=

Those AFAP folks never went on strike. The union talked those geniuses into faxing in their resignations en masse. And the companies accepted them. :ugh:

A sad situation but there was no strike.

I've been on strike and I know the difference.

I still see some of those AFAP folks scattered in Japanese crew lounges nearly three decades later. :(

[Trafalgar]

Regardless of personal feeling, there is obviously a massive shortage of pilots developing world-wide. The US will be particularly hard hit, as they have the greatest amount of retirements as a percentage of their operation. As AP has said, the discussion is already underway in Washington. What comes of it, no one knows (take note STL). Time will reveal all. The main point should really be, CX management has great reason to fear attracting and keeping experienced and competent pilots (the two things AT seems to think really aren't needed). So stop the transnational bickering and appreciate that the main benefit to ALL of us is the fact that CX management is making a fatal mistake in how they are treating their pilots. :ok: (btw, two more FO's I flew with this week are leaving)

[Adambrau]

As am American, just want to remind any foreigners that when the downturn in aviation eventually happens - you will be the first to be let go if you work for an American co. Sad to hear what is going on at CX and the fractured relationship between management and pilots and frontline. Cathay is still an institution to many of us around the world yet I feel like it's 1991 and I'm reading about Eastern Airlines' demise in the NYT. I know that the oil hedges caused bloody financial statements, it seems the die is cast in union/mgmt relations, but I hope a miracle happens and CX returns to glory.

[Toruk Macto]

I still see some of those AFAP folks scattered in Japanese crew lounges nearly three decades later .

Did you happen go up to them and tell them what you think about that particular episode in aviation history ?

[iflylow]

Future of the Pilot Profession (http://www.alpa.org/en/advocacy/pilot-supply)

Meanwhile, as stated above, certain segments of the airline industry claim there is a pilot shortage, and they often blame the shortage on a law passed by Congress in 2010 (P.L. 111-219). As a result of the law, the FAA implemented key safety enhancements to minimum first officer qualifications. The changes were implemented due to safety deficiencies identified in the aftermath of several fatal airline accidents. ALPA’s perspectives on the importance of these safety enhancements are discussed in greater detail in Maintaining Safety Standards.

The facts are clear—there is no pilot shortage in the United States. The annual number of airline transport pilot certificates issued remains strong. In fact, more than 25,500 certificates have been issued since July 2013. This rate of issuance continues to exceed the most optimistic pilot forecast.

Many airlines have recognized that hiring qualified pilots becomes easier when they increase pay and benefits and create career-advancement opportunities. Regional airlines that have added flow-through programs to mainline carriers have seen their hiring improve significantly. Many of these programs provide a path for employment through their code-share partners.

While the airlines that have increased pay, benefits, and quality of life have had no difficulty hiring qualified pilots, many regional airlines still have first-year salaries below $30,000. Basic economics should drive up these salaries if these airlines want to remain competitive in the U.S. market.

An airline pilot shortage is not responsible for small community air service challenges. Air service to small communities is impacted by economics, not pilot supply. In fact, access to and from many small communities has increased since 2012. Newer and larger aircraft have also increased the number of seats available in many small communities.



It’s rather sad to see these CX pilots desperately want to join a foreign carrier’s union that doesn’t even want them. Keep up the hope!

[swh]

Trump is not a big fan of outsourcing jobs. It was one of the major tenets of his presidential campaign. I’d be surprised if he would sign any such legislation, not in his first term anyways.

Outsourced the First Lady to an immigrant.

[bafanguy]

None of us (you either) know what will happen, but my money is on a change of visa category for qualified foreign pilots. It HAS happened in the past btw, so how can you be so sure it won't again?

MM,

Please refresh my memory on this event in US airline history. They've always hired green card holders...and are doing that to this very day. As a new F/E in the early 70s at a US legacy, I flew with a Norwegian. We also had other nationalities on the list. Nothing new about that.

As for current talks between US government and airlines, I'm only aware of what has transpired in relation to the USAF's pilot shortfall. They've talked with the airlines in some government setting but the airlines themselves have said VERY little as far as I know. The talks appear to have largely centered on the USAF's problems...not the airlines.

I've posted many articles in this thread. The airlines themselves have been largely silent on the subject:

https://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/583871-faa-may-reduce-required-flight-time-commercial-co-pilots.html

I'll bet there is LOTS of talk going on behind the curtain these days but at this point, we're all just the Blind Men and the Elephant.:)

[ToLowFlaps]

There is not yet a pilot shortage at the top US carriers. Alaska Airlines opened there application window for a month and received 2,800 qualified application for around 100 positions. There is a shortage at the lower end flying jobs.

[Dilbert68]

Exactly my point. Take note mole.

[Air Profit]

MM wasn't talking about 'today'. He was mentioning that the US industry is looking ahead to the next few YEARS, and sees a massive shortage of experienced pilots. It's interesting how this issue seems to so rile up the Yank pilots, as though it's somehow a threat to their little world that someone from another part of the world may join their club. It happened in the 1960's and most insiders think it will again. The demographic trend can't be overcome. Too many retirements in too short a period of time, combined with expansion will see the available pool of qualified people run dry. Again, no one really knows the final outcome, so why don't you all calm down and what will be will be. :rolleyes:

[NoAndThen]

just can't let it go Air Profit, can you? There will never be a shortage at any of the legancy airlines. Numbers were posted in previous posts, which you conveniently ignore. It will never happen! I know that is a blow to your CX inflated ego, but you'll just have to figure out a way to accept it. You obviously have no idea about the US airline industry, but keep digging a hole for yourself, you make it a rather entertaining thread.

[Lions Gate]

Noandthen. Let me know what brand of time machine you have, i'd like to get one. Would help with choosing lottery numbers.

[Air Profit]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I'm getting my info from the head of training of a US major. You can argue amongst yourselves. Time will tell who's right.

[Freehills]

The US pilot unions didn't end up where they are by rolling over whenever heads of training wanted to make their budgets. So I am sure that while there are discussions, implementation is more debatable. I mean, FDX have a base in HK, with no non US/ Green card pilots.

[NoAndThen]

Noandthen. Let me know what brand of time machine you have, i'd like to get one. Would help with choosing lottery numbers.

The lottery? Is that what you call your applications to DL, UA and AA? I wouldn't even call it that - at least with the lottery you have a chance.

[iflylow]

I'm sure ALPA is just dying to get foreign pilots from basically the most pathetic union in this industry. Guys like Air Profit training his cheaper, zero experience replacements, all while asking other unions not to train their pilots. Air Profit must personally be getting recruited!

[bafanguy]

Air Profit and MM,

I'll take another run at my questions since the subject interests me and historical perspective might be germane to whatever the future holds...and you guys seem to have some information on the subject:

You both mentioned that US carriers have actively solicited foreign nationals back in the 60s, I'm assuming with government assistance with visas, etc. I can't dispute what you're saying but can you provide the history of those events and a list of the airlines (or a link to such history) ?

[green card holders don't count]

AP, you mentioned the comments by your friend at a US legacy training department but didn't fill in the context of his remarks. Did he say the airlines have now formally approached the US kackistocracy to lobby for leeway on visas for foreign nationals to come fly for legacies...or were they just pondering the possible need to do that in the future ? There's a rather large difference between those two cases.

There's no particular reason why people would take the trouble to follow the recruiting/hiring situation here in the US but I do. If the US legacies (who are keenly aware of the retirement attrition) are sweating bullets over future pilot supply, they have a VERY odd way of demonstrating it.

You'd be stunned at the qualifications of the legions of people who can't even get an interview with a career-destination carrier and/or the ones interviewed and turned away. Just getting an interview is a huge hurdle.

Under current hiring attitudes, anyone rolling in with a fat logbook of WB time and thinking the US carriers will fall at their feet might be in for a real surprise.

I wonder how the HR types will feel about their previous "rejects" when they really need to fill seats (the legacy bell curve peaks in 2028). I'm looking forward to seeing that happen.

As for US pilots being a little irked at the prospect, I suppose your reaction might be similar if a bunch of Americans rolled into the UK legacy world and set up shop. Just kinda human nature.

[Air Profit]

As you have asked your questions in a polite and dignified manner, I will endeavor to clarify. All of the US major airlines have been in discussion with the Department of Homeland Security (Immigration) to advise and caution that over the coming years they will have trouble satisfying their requirement for suitably qualified pilots to satisfy their retirement (UA, approx 65% in the next 7 yrs, similar in most majors) and expansion needs. A simple demographic analysis clearly proves that fact. Further, the US Govt will only need to add pilot to the list of approved employer needed skills (such as doctor and nurse as examples) that are then granted green cards (immigration status) to enable them to move to the US and become employed by US carriers. Many professions have that status already (as mentioned above). I am not sure why this idea gets the yanks so upset? It can only happen if they can't source the required aircrew domestically. This date is still two to three years out. Don't forget, they are already doing this on behalf of the commuter airlines that can't find enough pilots now (some have already shut down due to no pilots). To argue that somehow this will never happen is absurd, as none of us can predict how this situation will evolve (and I am only relaying info, not stating the outcome). As I said, the above info is from the head of training for one of the US majors. He is obviously more in the loop than any of us.

[SweepTheLeg]

As you have asked your questions in a polite and dignified manner, I will endeavor to clarify. All of the US major airlines have been in discussion with the Department of Homeland Security (Immigration) to advise and caution that over the coming years they will have trouble satisfying their requirement for suitably qualified pilots to satisfy their retirement (UA, approx 65% in the next 7 yrs, similar in most majors) and expansion needs. A simple demographic analysis clearly proves that fact. Further, the US Govt will only need to add pilot to the list of approved employer needed skills (such as doctor and nurse as examples) that are then granted green cards (immigration status) to enable them to move to the US and become employed by US carriers. Many professions have that status already (as mentioned above). I am not sure why this idea gets the yanks so upset? It can only happen if they can't source the required aircrew domestically. This date is still two to three years out. Don't forget, they are already doing this on behalf of the commuter airlines that can't find enough pilots now (some have already shut down due to no pilots). To argue that somehow this will never happen is absurd, as none of us can predict how this situation will evolve (and I am only relaying info, not stating the outcome). As I said, the above info is from the head of training for one of the US majors. He is obviously more in the loop than any of us.

Air Profit, it's truly scary you're allowed to test other pilots at Cathay. To be as ignorant, arrogant, and flat out stubborn as you are, I feel bad for these Cadets who have you as their first impression of airline testing.

You really have no idea what you are talking about. The Legacies in the USA are the best paying airline jobs in the world. There will never be a shortage of Americans applying for these positions. Please, show me the math that these Legacies will have a hard time recruiting. Don't tell me about you "friend" at the mystery "major" having secret meetings only you and him know about. Give us facts... numbers, freaking anything!

Why is this so hard for you to understand? Do you comprehend how big the military is, the regionals, are, and GA is in the USA? That actually wasn't a question because you obviously don't.

I know I know... CX Testers are never wrong... can't lose face! Keep showing those 250 hr pilots who's boss! Doing it to give back to the profession, right?

[iflylow]

Further, the US Govt will only need to add pilot to the list of approved employer needed skills (such as doctor and nurse as examples) that are then granted green cards (immigration status)... Don't forget, they are already doing this on behalf of the commuter airlines that can't find enough pilots now (some have already shut down due to no pilots).


Oh Wise One,

Please let us know of what regionals are giving green cards, or any visa for that matter leading to permanent residency in the USA? Please, name just one... any one...

We're all waiting to hear. This should be interesting.

[mngmt mole]

How big the military is? Oh, you mean the military that just recalled 2000 pilots back FROM the airlines because they have a critical shortage. The regional airlines that have had to reduce their schedules, and have even shut down due to an increasingly critical shortage of pilots. Major US airlines, that are already desperately competing for the available pool of experienced pilots, and who's executives have publicly fretted about the looming shortage. Boeing themselves who are warning their customers about the need to source pilots. I get that the US pilots on this forum seem to have an amazingly thin skin about the issue, but AP and others have only stated that the granting of greencards/visas would ONLY be done as the domestic pool of pilots runs dry, something that many industry pundits have predicted. Of course, people such as iflylow and sweeptheleg know exactly what will happen in the future. Remarkable. At least AP has only posited an opinion, and not stated an outcome, like the soothsayers above.

[iflylow]

How big the military is? Oh, you mean the military that just recalled 2000 pilots back FROM the airlines because they have a critical shortage.

This should be almost as good as Air Profit. Can you please provide anything showing anything at all proving 2000 pilots have been recalled into the military? Maybe even 200? No wait, 20? Actually even 2? I need to give my military buddies a heads up they should be back on active duty!! 😲

[Trafalgar]

I believe this is what MM was referring to:

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/10/20/trump-lets-air-force-recall-1k-retired-pilots.html

It's a 1000, and only addresses the 'growing shortage' in the US Military. So MM, not quite correct, but the point you make is valid. The shortage is getting more and more acute, and will only get worse. Not sure why you seem so exercised by this iflylow. I suspect you never made it in the US majors, and just have a bit of a chip regarding anyone who does, particularly the idea of someone from another country. Remember, after all the WW2 vets were hired, the US majors needed many more pilots for their great expansion in the 1960's, and were able to hire from overseas. So not quite sure where your certainty it would never happen again comes from. Simply put, you have no :mad: idea. Oh, btw, all the other facts mentioned by MM are correct.

[iflylow]

So the military has the option to recall 1000 pilots? They have the option to do a lot of things. As I mentioned before, who has been recalled? List one person. Anyone!!

I have a problem with all Cathay pilot typical BS about things they have no idea about. It’s tiring and so easy to call out.

[Trafalgar]

I think you missed the point iflylow. MM was incorrect on one point, but correct on all the others. Even on the point of error, his sentiment towards the bigger issue is correct: the military is concerned about a growing retention crises, hence the need for the change in legislation. You seem to have a problem jealously guarding 'your' jobs back home, but fail to see that the situation is evolving. AP also told you his info was from a direct and well connected source. And your info is from...? You obviously never made it in the industry, and you just can't stand to see others succeed where you failed. Can smell that a mile off...

[bafanguy]

I believe this is what MM was referring to:

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/10/20/trump-lets-air-force-recall-1k-retired-pilots.html

It's a 1000, and only addresses the 'growing shortage' in the US Military. So MM, not quite correct, but the point you make is valid. The shortage is getting more and more acute, and will only get worse. Not sure why you seem so exercised by this iflylow. I suspect you never made it in the US majors, and just have a bit of a chip regarding anyone who does, particularly the idea of someone from another country. Remember, after all the WW2 vets were hired, the US majors needed many more pilots for their great expansion in the 1960's, and were able to hire from overseas. So not quite sure where your certainty it would never happen again comes from. Simply put, you have no :mad: idea. Oh, btw, all the other facts mentioned by MM are correct.


Traf,

This is the first paragraph of the article:

"The Trump administration is giving the Air Force the option to return through voluntary programs as many as 1,000 retired pilots to active-duty service, the Pentagon announced."

I'd be surprised to see retired USAF pilots voluntarily leave their legacy airline job to return to service and fly a desk.

As I recall, the USAF decided not to exercise that option...or if they did it was just a handful and not 1,000. I can't find the article stating that but am pretty sure of it.

The National Guard and Reserve pilots currently on airline seniority lists may be called up to active duty for periods of time (and have as long as I can remember) but WILL return to their airline careers...I can promise you that ! :O

In any case, this issue involves insignificant numbers of pilots.

[Trafalgar]

Yes, I know. That is why I stated MM was wrong in his initial assessment. The fact that the US Govt had to approve this legislation does however confirm the sentiment of MM's post: the military is having trouble crewing their aircraft, as is the rest of the industry.

[iflylow]

Trag,

You seem like a good guy. You quit training so you’ve got that going for you, which is nice. You post a little too much on pprune for what I’d consider normal but no one is perfect. I’d just stay out of this.

MM and Air Profit came on here and started making some big claims, and it was pretty easy to ask for a few details and realize they were both full of :mad:. Yes, there may be a pilot shortage at the regional level. No, there will never be a shortage at the legacy level. Anyyone who has ever been involved in aviation in the USA knows this. The legacies would set up ab initio programs (such as Delta and Auburn U) before ever hiring foreigners. ALPA always has and always will be against foreigners with their lobbying muscle. Trump, for another 3 years at least, will never allow it. Congress will lower the 1500 hr limit before they allow foreign pilots in, and their actions have made it clear they aren't even interested in lowering that limit!

Air Profit spreads all this crap because it’s self serving. He’’s been trying to lobby Cathay to sponsor a visa for him to get on a USA base. It’s pathetic to start spreading rumors for your own personal benefit, but what do you expect from a CX Tester?

[bafanguy]

The fact that the US Govt had to approve this legislation does however confirm the sentiment of MM's post: the military is having trouble crewing their aircraft...

A true statement...let there be no doubt ! So far, most of the squawking is coming from the USAF side of things. In all the articles re the USAF's retention problem, the airlines are remarkably silent.

The military continues to train new pilots by the way but every pipeline has its limits.

The airlines don't give a rat's about the military's staffing problems...and vice versa, by the way. The airlines want EVERY military pilot (now to include rotor wing)...and will get 'em. This is DL's latest public announcement:

"Announcing a change to our minimum pilot requirements!

Effective immediately, Delta will allow pilots of aircraft in the Powered Lift category (e.g. the V22 Osprey, AV8B Harrier, and F35B) to count 90% of your Powered Lift flight time toward our requirement of 1,000 hours fixed wing turbine time.

We do still require that all applicants meet all flight time requirements to hold an AMEL ATP.

If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to send them to us via the Send Message button on our Facebook page!"


https://m.facebook.com/profile.php?id=934287680018222&ref=content_filter

That's why it's amusing to see these two sides "talking" about the matter: chickens talking to the foxes about who gets in the hen house.

[Trafalgar]

Ok. I personally agree with you on this. I still am not sure why you attacked AP, as he was stating what he was told by a fairly highly placed source. I don't think he personally said it would happen (I will reread more carefully his comments to be sure, but haven't done so at this point). I am also not sure where AP has ever 'lobbied' CX for a visa.

[reazasassain]

You guys do realize American carriers are already hiring foreign pilots. In fact there are Australian Cathay pilots who have recently been hired by Sky West. Some SOs are jumping ship for better opportunities in America. Sky West is capable of hiring foreign pilots under the US immigration E visa.

[Sorry Dog]

Don't forget, they are already doing this on behalf of the commuter airlines that can't find enough pilots now (some have already shut down due to no pilots). To argue that somehow this will never happen is absurd, as none of us can predict how this situation will evolve (and I am only relaying info, not stating the outcome). As I said, the above info is from the head of training for one of the US majors. He is obviously more in the loop than any of us.

The reason many react negatively to the idea of U.S. Majors or regionals for that matter needing to sponsor is that we are not anywhere close to that kind of shortage. The abuse of the H1B visa system has happened in many other industries as a means of importing cheaper skilled labor. In the case of the regional airlines, they have only recently raised wages out of the cellar while kicking and screaming the whole time. The irrational economics of commercial pilot training at previous wages is finally playing out to something a little more rational. With this in mind, when airlines talk about not enough pilots to fly it is hard not to be skeptical about their motives.

I have seen the H1B system abuse first hand. Years ago I worked in the cellular industry that is full of green card holding programmers and analysts from India, Pakistan, etc. who work for 1/2 or 2/3 (but have rarely or never been in an actual equipment shelter) and would probably need help to hook up their own home stereo system. This trend has only accelerated since I left. The point of the green card system is NOT there so that companies can tap into the worldwide labor market anytime there is upward pressure on wages.

[Freehills]

This. It is hard to see ALPA rolling over on this one. Heck - look how tough they have been on scope clauses, and that is vs fellow US pilots.

Also the demise of commuter airlines is as much about the re-ordering of US domestic aviation as anything else. It just often makes much more sense to drive 90 miles to a large airport with multiple flights per day on A320/B737 than to take a once daily commuter flight from a local airport. 19 seaters are pretty much obsolete, and this "uneconomicness" is creeping up the scale - almost no-one is buying aircraft with less than 76 seats (the scope clause) these days. Paying crew less or importing them won't change the numbers, that the cachement area of airports has been steadily rising.

[Freehills]

Some stats to back me up, 2008 vs 2018 planned capacity in the US (from the Boyd group)

Flights, down 7.6%. Number of seats offered, up 8%

Average size of aircraft up 17%

[bafanguy]

You guys do realize American carriers are already hiring foreign pilots. In fact there are Australian Cathay pilots who have recently been hired by Sky West. Some SOs are jumping ship for better opportunities in America. Sky West is capable of hiring foreign pilots under the US immigration E visa.

The big difference is that the regionals are NOT career-destination airlines...merely steppingstones for the majority of people. Hence, the attitude surrounding them is less "intense"...the E-3 visa is a wholly different animal. It's remains arguable, just as an example, whether E-3 holders will be able to "flow" from AA's three wholly-owned" regionals to mainline AA holding only an E-3 visa (and perhaps no college degree). I've not heard that the first Aussie E-3 holder has made the jump via a defined "flow".

The influx of Aussies to US regional carriers is well documented although I admit to being surprised people would leave CX to fly for a regional here.

[Shep69]

I think the fact of the matter is that one might have a better life working for a regional carrier in the US rather than CX. At least after a short time period of slugging it out, and the pilot shortage has the knock on effect of higher turnover at regionals (with much more rapid advancement through seniority) as well as necessarily higher wages.

Cost is a relative thing. Costs of living in the US can be quite low depending on where you live and rather than blowing all your money trying to make ends meet with hugely expensive housing in a tiny place in HK, you can actually get a pretty decent amount of acreage pretty cheap. Even between locations in the US costs can vary wildly (one can get a decent place for maybe one-fifth to one-tenth of the cost outside of the areas where CX bases in the US even which are some of the more expensive cities to live in; hence the large fraction of commuters).

Now, it’s very unlikely a regional will take as good care of you on the road and you will be quite a bit busier (rather than watching air go by or droning for long periods of time). Then again, some people like busy. The equipment may not be as shiny and well maintained, but again some folks don’t mind this either. Living in a decent place under decent conditions really has a great deal going for it. And for those already far along in their careers but not ready to hang it up quite yet (but not wanting to live in HKG with little say in their destiny) a regional might make sense for some extra cash while doing something you like. With the added advantage of accumulating Social Security credits if needed. As well (with some) of better reciprocal agreements and staff travel, KCM, CASS, etc.

Much depends on the exact details but the fact people are considering stuff like this speaks volumes as to where we’ve come in a few short years.

[Freehills]

True, but couple of points. You’ll pay US taxes and SS on all worldwide income, not just your pay. And while you pay the taxes, E3/ H1B visa holders don’t accrue social security credits unless/ until you get a green card. So not a great deal for semi-retirees.

[jetjockey696]

I guess this how things are done by the cabin crew who are not happy with there working conditions and no one listens..

Video borrowed from emirates cabin crew..

https://youtu.be/eNwrT9N4MlI

[positionalpor]

Flying for Cathay is like flying for a regional carrier just with bigger Jets.Same management mentality

[cxorcist]

This is the truest statement on this thread!

[airplaneridesrfun]

There is no pilot shortage in the US. Just a shortage of pilots willing to work for what management wants them to. That is why there is so much hype right now. Whoever said that working for a regional is better than Cathay should just go try it for a little while. Are we underpaid for flying big jets, YES! Do we need a pay rise, especially considering HK is so expensive - an emphatic YES!

Are the articles talking about a pilot shortage trying to increase supply, so that the supply curve shifts to the right and wages go down - Bingo! It's not rocket science people. The fact that Cathay has effectively trained warm bodies to be pilots will eventually come back to bite the airline, but for now they have shifted the supply curve out..... and they win on the wage front.

What are we going to do about it? Do regulatory agencies around the world know how little experience our SO's have? Would they allow two SO's to occupy the flight deck on an airplane that holds mainly it's citizens?

[Samsonite]

Right from ALPA, Yes the US will hire foreign pilots but the BIG 5 will not sponsor any! that is the ALPA stance.

[bafanguy]

Sam,

Would you have a link to the statement ALPA made on this subject of US legacies hiring foreign pilots ?

I looked on the ALPA website and found only this but it doesn't address current events. You said, "Right from ALPA...", so I assume there's a recent statement from them on this subject ?:

ALPA Administrative Manual Section 130-Directives 10/31/16

PART 40 -COLLECTIVE BARGAINING, ORGANIZING

A.FOREIGN PILOTS WITH H-1B VISAS SOURCE - Executive Board October 1993

The President shall utilize the resources of the Association to fully investigate the practices of those U.S. companies hiring foreign pilots with U.S. Visas and any other practices which result in foreign nationals performing flying which could be performed by U.S. pilots.

Should such investigations reveal that U.S. companies are not in full compliance with the statutes pertaining to the hiring of foreign pilots, a formal complaint shall be filed with the Department of Labor.