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G-CPTN
7th Dec 2017, 20:56
An attempt by Trump to unite the two factions? - or a move to stir up things in the Middle East?

Jet II
7th Dec 2017, 21:10
Wont make a blind bit of difference where the Embassy is.

gruntie
7th Dec 2017, 21:17
The BBC are reporting that his speech contained “five key takeaways”.

It might be KFC, or even a dodgy kebab: but I’ve listened very carefully, and I can’t spot any food anywhere.....

vapilot2004
7th Dec 2017, 21:36
Trump is merely keeping a campaign promise to the Bible thumpers (and some pro-Israeli settlement hardliners) that put him into orifice. This is a shoot-from-the-hip decision, not unlike, apparently, most of his decisions, where rational thought and input from learned professionals is again, apparently, considered a waste of time.

G-CPTN, no disrespect intended towards you whatsoever... "Unite" is not a term that comes to mind when describing Trump's campaign, his persona, nor his divisive and combative administration.

A little recent history: A Jerusalem embassy has been part of official US policy since a 1995 law from Congress was passed, but subsequent US presidents, with actual diplomatic skills and knowledge of our Constitution, have kicked that can (IED?, Suicide bomber?, Can of BioAgent number 666?) down the road, until now.

The Constitutional aspects are obvious and spelled out in the plain language of Separation of Powers and within Article II. The powers bestowed upon the Executive here are both explicit and implicit.

Congress was attempting to usurp the Constitutional powers of the Executive's right to manage and implement US foreign policy. Within the diplomatic aspect, there is of course, some nuance and if we've learned one thing about this president, aside from his proclivity towards lying, nuance is not a quality he holds within his personal skill set.

VP959
7th Dec 2017, 21:39
I suspect that there will be a bit of a fuss for a while, the US embassy probably won't move to Jerusalem during Trump's time in office, there will be a lot of stalling about finding a location, approving funding, etc and in a few years time the US Embassy will still be in Tel Aviv.

Meanwhile, every Palestinian-supporting nation in the ME will be pissed off and more anti-US than they are already, the diplomatic relationships between the US and many of it's key allies will become a bit more strained than they already are for time.

Overall, I suspect this bit of shit-stirring won't achieve anything positive, and might well end up making the situation worse.

meadowrun
7th Dec 2017, 21:47
The embassy won't be built for years unless they have a pre-cleared site picked out. The archelogical considerations alone are monumental in that city.


Trump's negotiators over there (Jared, Donny jr.?) reported back that the Palestinians do not negotiate in good faith (never have), lie and stall and their ultimate goals have not changed from your garden run genocide and cultural extermination. Trump decided to hell with this and sent the ME a wakeup call.

NutLoose
7th Dec 2017, 22:01
Ahhh religion, an indoctrinated hatred of your fellow man and as with racism, no child is born hating one another, It is a state of mind taught to them by their elders.

vapilot2004
7th Dec 2017, 22:01
Trump decided to hell with this and sent the ME a wakeup call.

There are some learned folks in the realm of International Relations that suggest an impetuous hardliner/rabble rouser (bad cop) like Trump, followed by a more thoughtful dove-like administration (good cop) could "reset" US relations in some of the worst politically troubled parts of the globe, putting some bad actors "on notice".

That "reset" comes with great risk, however, and, aside from threats of blocking access to the gooey black stuff that flows freely there, the potential powder keg of violence is the primary reason behind what some describe as our ongoing two-faced stance in the Middle East.

Of course, there is also the risk that a US foreign policy flip-flop the above scenario would create has the potential to further isolate the United States as a nation that cannot be trusted to keep her course steady and words true. We've witnessed the results of such a scenario with the Bush 43 and Obama administration's unwieldy conglomeration of foreign policy safaris.

MG23
7th Dec 2017, 22:08
That "reset" comes with great risk, however, and, aside from threats of blocking access to the gooey black stuff that flows freely there, the potential powder keg of violence is the primary reason behind what some describe as our ongoing two-faced stance in the Middle East.

Since the oil money's going to run out soon and the Middle East in its current form will collapse into widespread war when that happens, there's little risk in trying to improve the situation there beforehand. At worst, the war comes a little earlier than it would have otherwise.

Cazalet33
7th Dec 2017, 22:18
The archelogical considerations alone are monumental in that city.

Yeah, but it's got a lovely wall.

Sallyann1234
7th Dec 2017, 22:23
Trump's negotiators over there (Jared, Donny jr.?) reported back that the Palestinians do not negotiate in good faith (never have), lie and stall and their ultimate goals have not changed from your garden run genocide and cultural extermination.
That's all very true. 100% accurate.

But you know what?
If you change 'Palestinians' to 'Israelis' it will still be 100% true.

The only difference is that the Israelis are very much nearer to achieving their goal than are the Palestinians.

vapilot2004
7th Dec 2017, 22:30
Since the oil money's going to run out soon and the Middle East in its current form will collapse into widespread war when that happens, there's little risk in trying to improve the situation there beforehand. At worst, the war comes a little earlier than it would have otherwise.

"Soon", being the relative term that it is, I would imagine most, aside from Big Oil, their investors, and their minions, would not welcome more conflict in the region in the coming decades of post "peak oil".

there's little risk in trying to improve the situation

How does poisoning the well of diplomacy improve anything?

Recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel comes with recognizing the settlements and the current apartheid situation that exists there now between the Palestinians and Israelis. Any further pressure upon the powder keg of hardline stances cannot end well and the only way it would "end" is if Israel pummels her Arab neighbors into submission. That ain't gonna be a pretty picture for Israel or the West to live in moving forward.

If you change 'Palestinians' to 'Israelis' it will still be 100% true.


Good g-d, Sallyann, would you kindly refrain from sharing your overly simplistic and realistic viewpoints? There's no room for that kind of talk here. :p

I do generally agree with your statement, however genocide and cultural extermination are not equally pursued here. One side's execution is by design, the other, an unfortunate and unintended consequence of collateral damage.

The two may be considered classic examples of the difference between an entrenched "enemy's" actions and those pursued by a Western-aligned government.

Concours77
7th Dec 2017, 22:34
If "A" and "B" are in stalemate, give one an advantage. Entropy takes over. There is no downside to recognizing the holy city as capital, none. The only people criticizing this move are partisans. Think about it.

galaxy flyer
7th Dec 2017, 22:58
As usual, lots of tripe for sale here.

First, the country gets to decide its capital, not outside countries. Saying the US recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is as silly as the US recognizes London as the UK capital. Jerusalem is the Israeli capital because they said it was.

Second, it’s West Jerusalem that’s the capital, it has always been Israeli since the founding of the state. It is Jewish, by wide majority and no one, even the Palestinians, aren’t arguing the fact.

Third, the Palestinians need to face reality. They’ve been offered numerous settlements and rejected every one as they live in the fantasy of throwing the Israelis into the sea, as Al-Ashraf Khalil of the Mamelukes did in the 13th century.

We might remember the more recent history when Jordanians and Palestinians occupied Jerusalem and desecrated Jewish holy sites and refused access to other religions.

GF

vapilot2004
7th Dec 2017, 23:05
"Deciding" and "recognizing" are two different actions. One is internal, the other, external.

Fomenting conflict, on the other (bloody) hand, exists in both realms.

Sallyann1234
7th Dec 2017, 23:06
"
Good g-d, Sallyann, would you kindly refrain from sharing your overly simplistic and realistic viewpoints? There's no room for that kind of talk here. :p

I do generally agree with your statement, however genocide and cultural extermination are not equally pursued here. One side's execution is by design, the other, an unfortunate and unintended consequence of collateral damage.

The two may be considered classic examples of the difference between an entrenched "enemy's" actions and those pursued by a Western-aligned government.
I make no judgement of which side is right or wrong, only that by reference to the changing map of the region it is quite clear which side is winning.

meadowrun
7th Dec 2017, 23:06
True g f.
However half his, half theirs, as a capital city is an instability that cannot exist in nature.
Know of any other national capitals shared by such fervent opposites in so many ways?
It's the hate that has to be dealt with one way or another and I don't expect a group hug at anytime.

Cazalet33
7th Dec 2017, 23:13
The only difference is that the Israelis are very much nearer to achieving their goal than are the Palestinians. The other difference is that Palestinians in Palestinian Jerusalem don't have guns and Israelis do.

vapilot2004
7th Dec 2017, 23:15
I make no judgement of which side is right or wrong, only that by reference to the changing map of the region it is quite clear which side is winning.

Cannot argue with that either, Sallyann.


Know of any other national capitals shared by such fervent opposites in so many ways?

Berlin, circa the Cold War era was the capital de jur for West Germany and the de facto capital for East Germany.

It's the hate that has to be dealt with one way or another and I don't expect a group hug at anytime.

:D

Jet II
7th Dec 2017, 23:32
If the Yanks build their new Embassy on the dividing line between East and West Jerusalem they wouldn't need a new one if/when a Palestinian State is created -just a different door at each end of the building..

Just my contribution to balancing the budget.. ;)

vapilot2004
7th Dec 2017, 23:38
If the Yanks build their new Embassy on the dividing line between East and West Jerusalem they wouldn't need a new one if/when a Palestinian State is created -just a different door at each end of the building..


Israeli side:
https://www.travoh.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/001-St-Regis-Luxury-Hotel-Rome-Italy-Exterior-Entrance-740x540.jpg

Palestinian side:
http://media.gettyimages.com/videos/prison-gate-opening-and-closing-lamberton-pennsylvania-usa-video-id9010-118?s=640x640

meadowrun
7th Dec 2017, 23:48
The architects took such pains on symmetry perfection with the St. Regis Hotel in Rome, the lamp, the doors, the various column features, the arches, the whole structure...........

Then they park a fancy supercar in the middle of the symmetrical centre arch....slightly off to the side by a couple of inches.


Sorry, photographer instincts kicking in.

galaxy flyer
7th Dec 2017, 23:51
There’s 8,500-ish square miles of Israel; millions of square miles for Palestinians, Arabs, Sunni and Shi’a; do they really need that lousy 8,500 square miles? Israel is a prosperous, self-reliant nation that is 20% Muslim; how many Jewish followers are in the Muslim world? If Israel can be prosperous on the same ground that Palestinians lived, how is it they are dirt poor while their Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Authority drives around in new Merced’s and live in mansions?

The Palestinians are led by thieves selling snake oil to their followers. It’d be criminal, if not so pathetic and obvious.

GF

vapilot2004
7th Dec 2017, 23:59
Hear hear, GF. :D

Palestinians have always been pawns of a greater conflict. Arab nations only care for them for political expediency. Their de facto governing regimes are corrupt.

Meanwhile, Americans support Israeli aggression* against them with money and weapons, whilst supplying medicine and bags of rice for the oppressed.

*Aggression, that for the most part, has been sadly justified.

GF, your post also reminds me of the openness of the Islamic Ottoman Empire to Martin Luther's newfangled experiment in religion, Protestantism. Ironic that self-proclaimed followers of the new offshoot are the primary perpetrators of the current cluster fack.

Truth be told, it's always been about water (historically) and oil (recent history) yonder in the sand pit.

Good eye, Meadowrun.

galaxy flyer
8th Dec 2017, 00:09
Have you been to Israel?


GF

vapilot2004
8th Dec 2017, 00:13
I have. You?

reynoldsno1
8th Dec 2017, 01:21
Well, this is what Jared reckoned about Middle East peace in August:

So first of all, this is one of the ones I was asked to take on, and I did with this something that I do with every problem set you get. Which is you try to study the historical context to understand how something got to where it is, who was successful, and who wasn’t successful. And you try to [unintelligible] is research it and look at the conventional sources but also try to get some unconventional sources as well. And what I’ve determined from looking at it is that not a whole lot has been accomplished over the last 40 or 50 years we've been doing this.

And the other thing about it I’d say is that the variables haven’t been changed much, so at some point it's just one of those things where you kind of have to just pick and choose where you draw conclusion. But that was the other observation I had.

The third one is that I have tried to look at why people haven’t been successful in the negotiations, so I looked and studied all the different negotiations. I spoke to a lot of people who have have been part of them, and I think the reason why is that this is a very emotionally charged situation. Look at what happened this past 10 days—a lot of seemingly logical measures taken on the different [unintelligible] part somehow became a little bit incendiary. But we were able to calm it down by having a lot of really great dialogue between Jordan and the Palestinian authority and the Israelis.


I’d say what makes me hopeful about it is the fact that, a) we’ve had two achievements so far that I think are actually quite noteworthy, which I'll talk about in a second. The reason why we haven’t been able to do that is the trust that we have with all sides. So if you’ve noticed about this conflict, and [unintelligible] nothing’s leaked out. So nothing has leaked out which I think gives the parties more trust, and more ability to really express and share their viewpoints. And ultimately, if you do a deal that when somebody had to compromise somewhere—all right so there's a stated set of positions on one side. There’s a stated set of positions on the other side. And there’s a lot of viewpoints all around that people have, which may or may not be conducive to a solution. So I think you need to be able to probe people in private for them to have the confidence that it’s not going to be used against them, and that it’s not going to leak out in the press, which would be very, very hurtful. That’s been a big advantage, which has allowed us to really have a lot of very interesting conversations.

So the two successes that we’ve had so far is—I don’t know if you’re familiar with the deal we’ve had on the water with the Jordanians and the Israelis and the Palestinians—so I was saying that they’ve talked about in concept for a lot of years where [unintelligible] and we were able to figure out how we were going to negotiate a solution which simply [unintelligible] talking for a very, very long time. But again, that happened just because we’re talking to all sides. We don’t let them get caught in the past.

You know everyone finds an issue, that, “You have to understand what they did then,” and “You have to understand that they did this.” But how does that help us get peace? Let's not focus on that. We don’t want a history lesson. We’ve read enough books. Let’s focus on how do you come up with a conclusion to the situation. That was one thing that we achieved, which we were quite happy about—which is, you know, small thing, but it’s actually a pretty big thing over there. But something that we thought was a pretty big step.

The other thing was working through, in this past week, it really showed us how quickly things can ignite in our history, and you have some people who don’t want to see and achieve an outcome of peace. And other people sometimes thrive in the chaos, and they thrive [unintelligible] and that's not new to politics and its not new to that conflict. It's just the way it is, and you always have people on all sides [unintelligible] .

And again, all these people make arguments about why they feel the way they do. So as tensions were really mounting, I don't know if everyone is familiar, but there were two people—two Israeli guards killed at the Temple Mount (and that's the first time in many, many, many years that that happened, so Israelis [unintelligible] putting up metal detectors on the Temple Mount, which is not an irrational thing to do. You know when you have—police officers were just killed, and weapons that were used to [unintelligible] the weapons to check them—so then what happens is they start inciting it.

They say look, you know, this is a change to the status quo. The Temple Mount is a [unintelligible] occupation of Israel, and Israel was saying we don’t want anything to do with that, we just want to make sure people are safe. And that really incited a lot of tension in the streets.

So we're going to work with them [unintelligible] to take down the metal detectors there, and then I think one of the Palestinians' religious leaders was saying, “If you go through the metal detectors, then your prayers don’t count.” And that is not a very helpful thing to have said. And then there was a lot of rage. And there was an Israeli family that three people killed in their home, which was absolutely terrible. You know, so, "I'm going to do this to free the Temple Mount." So ultimately we were able to work with them, and we were able to get the Israelis to take down to the different forms of surveillance that the Jordanians were okay with, and we talked with the Palestinians the whole time to try to get their viewpoint on it.


And then ultimately they said, "Okay, we took down the metal detectors but there's still a bridge up somewhere." And they said, "Okay, we'll take that down, too." And so Bibi was getting beaten up by the press in Israel, because that was very politically unpopular for him to do. At the same time we got a situation in Jordan where an Israeli security diplomat in Jordan was attacked by two Jordanian men, and in self-defense he killed the attackers. So then it worked out where the Jordanians got the Israelis to accept their people from the embassy back to Israel.

[Unintelligible]

My point is that these things are very, very combustible, and very, very delicate in terms of how you can do, but I think the fact that all these conversations were all done in quiet and nothing leaked out [unintelligible]. But I think we were able to keep things quiet. But I mean, any day something could happen.

So, what do we offer that's unique? I don’t know… I’m sure everyone that’s tried this has been unique in some ways, but again we’re trying to follow very logically. We're thinking about what the right end state is. And we’re trying to work with the parties very quietly to see if there's a solution. And there may be no solution, but it’s one of the problem sets that the president asked us to focus on. So we’re going to focus on it and try to come to the right conclusion in the near future.

And here we are today ...

meadowrun
8th Dec 2017, 01:27
That's a couple of minutes I'll never get back.

lomapaseo
8th Dec 2017, 01:35
Then they park a fancy supercar in the middle of the symmetrical centre arch....slightly off to the side by a couple of inches.

woman driver parking

Jet II
8th Dec 2017, 01:50
woman driver parking

Surely valet parking?

MG23
8th Dec 2017, 02:08
"Soon", being the relative term that it is, I would imagine most, aside from Big Oil, their investors, and their minions, would not welcome more conflict in the region in the coming decades of post "peak oil".

What do you think is going to happen when the demand for oil collapses? They'll all just sing Kumbaya and love each other?

galaxy flyer
8th Dec 2017, 03:38
Yes, twice, quite fascinating and moving. I love history and it’s all well curated there. Been most of the ME, sometimes even using a passport.

GF

RatherBeFlying
8th Dec 2017, 03:48
has got himself an orange haired dummy:p

People are accusing the orange haired dummy of killing off the two state solution, but fifty years of slow motion ethnic cleansing (underhanded bureaucratic maneuvering and expropriations, settlers setting up camp and burning olive groves and raiding villages...) has much more guilt.

scr1
8th Dec 2017, 06:18
Israel is a lovely country. With lovely people (on both sides of the divide). That sadly suffers from terrible politics. (controlled by extremism on both side)

Sallyann1234
8th Dec 2017, 08:30
Surely valet parking?
Driver had to leave room to get out the door.

cattletruck
8th Dec 2017, 10:14
Hmmm, I don't get this at all. I thought people had moved on from the traditional robe brigade as I now see Apple/Android followers in the street every day.

megan
8th Dec 2017, 16:33
Been most of the ME, sometimes even using a passportHow's that work GF? When invited to the Vietnam games we had to have a passport, no Visa required though, stamped "Not valid for North Vietnam".

vapilot2004
8th Dec 2017, 20:43
GF, glad you visited. It is a beautiful land occupied by some incredibly passionate people.

What do you think is going to happen when the demand for oil collapses? They'll all just sing Kumbaya and love each other?

Let me ask you this, MG: Do you care?

Their's is a culture born and bred in violence, but let's not forget the fact that we helped create the current mess.

There is some small hope in the younger members of the "royals" that think in progressive terms for the future of their domains. They have plenty of money to lay the groundwork for a diversified economy. Time and the hot, sandy winds of change will tell.

That's a couple of minutes I'll never get back.

:D

galaxy flyer
8th Dec 2017, 21:08
Megan,

Funny enough, three times in my post-military flying, I’ve stopped by CIQ and been shown the door with, “you flew those passengers, please just leave, no need for passports”. These are countries you want to move to.

Yes, I’ve never used my Official Passport.

vapilot,

let's not forget the fact that we helped create the current mess.

It might be more accurate to state we’re just trying to fix the “mess” created by the now unlamented empires of France and Britain along with the mess created by Nazis and the Muslim Brotherhood, not to mention a bunch of other extremist groups that go back well before US involvement, post-WW II.

GF

Lonewolf_50
8th Dec 2017, 21:34
The idiots did as expected.
"A Day of Rage" (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/one-dead-scores-hurt-in-palestinian-day-of-rage-over-jerusalem/ar-BBGo33f?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=ientp)


A bunch of rabble rousers got some idiots to get involved in a protest that was intended by its organizers to become violent. It ended in tears. Same stupid stuff, different date.

galaxy flyer
8th Dec 2017, 21:44
An, no doubt, American aid to the Palestinian Authority will be used to pay the “martyrs” families for life.

GF

Ancient Mariner
8th Dec 2017, 22:13
One corrupt terrorist state supporting another.
What a surprise.
Per

galaxy flyer
8th Dec 2017, 23:42
How pure is your terrorist state?


GF

galaxy flyer
9th Dec 2017, 00:14
Game theory may play a role in the Jerusalem recognition decision. Israel may pay for it later Big Time when the administration imposes a solution on them.

GF

Sallyann1234
9th Dec 2017, 09:52
The idiots did as expected.
"A Day of Rage" (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/one-dead-scores-hurt-in-palestinian-day-of-rage-over-jerusalem/ar-BBGo33f?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=ientp)


A bunch of rabble rousers got some idiots to get involved in a protest that was intended by its organizers to become violent. It ended in tears. Same stupid stuff, different date.
You think it is clever to celebrate the inevitable reaction?

The whole world said it would happen, with probably worse to come. The whole world advised against such an inflammatory action, but it took someone as stupid as Trump to go ahead and chuck a bucket of fuel on a smouldering fire. :ugh:

Jet II
9th Dec 2017, 13:54
Just out of interest - does anyone really believe that this action is going to make a blind bit of difference either way to the possibility of a future peace deal?

Ancient Mariner
9th Dec 2017, 14:35
How pure is your terrorist state?


GF

Not pure at all. We have unfortunately adhered to NATOs requests at a couple of occasions where we should have said no.
Per

lomapaseo
9th Dec 2017, 15:55
Just out of interest - does anyone really believe that this action is going to make a blind bit of difference either way to the possibility of a future peace deal?

Well it does remove a chip off the table that was worth negotiating for. Since it's unlikely that the chip can be won back by armed conflict it encourages more negotiations to regain a status quo between the parties.

obgraham
9th Dec 2017, 18:07
Well it does remove a chip off the table that was worth negotiating for. Since it's unlikely that the chip can be won back by armed conflict it encourages more negotiations to regain a status quo between the parties.Except that that approach has produced nothing for 70 years.
This table needed knocking over.
Next is for the "Palestinians" to find themselves some new leadership.

SpringHeeledJack
9th Dec 2017, 19:37
How about Jerusalem, or at least the area surrounding Temple Mount being a 'stateless' co-joined area ?

lomapaseo
9th Dec 2017, 19:37
Next is for the "Palestinians" to find themselves some new leadership.

one who won't drink the hemlock tea

Espada III
9th Dec 2017, 20:37
How about the real Palestinian state (Jordan) and Lebanon giving full citizenship to those people who left Israel in 1948 on the promise that once the Jews were driven into the sea they could go home. Instead they are pawns in refugee camps.

Mistakes were made post 1967, but the Israelis are reacting to a constant state of war, not only in the local theatre but huge international opposition which is illogical.

scr1
9th Dec 2017, 20:53
How about Jerusalem, or at least the area surrounding Temple Mount being a 'stateless' co-joined area ?

The original 1948 UN plan had Jerusalem as a international city under the control of the UN. Israel said yes The Arabs said no to the plan and went to war thinking they could take everything.

kkbuk
29th Dec 2017, 22:53
I see that Jared uses the Donald Trump form of gibberish.