Rocket Forces Launch Sequence?

[Pontius Navigator]

Any old missilers out there?

I have a question about deployment and launch sequence. I know that Thor was deployed on revetted dispersal sites with three missiles. Should they have been launched, how long between launches?

How were the SS4 Sadler deployed? How many in a silo complex? Again, would these have been ripple launched and over what length of time.

[Yellow Sun]

That's an interesting question PN and I suppose the answer is that all missiles would be fired within the time allowed by the highest readiness state that could be ordered. Unfortunately, missileers are now getting very thin on the ground; I only know one and I doubt that he could cast much light on the process.

The best secondary source I have found is "Project Emily by John Boyes", but even that does not appear to have a direct answer. on pp116 it is indicated that:

....the missile (could) be held at a ready state in the shelter at T-5 minutes forty seconds, held vertical and unfuelled at T-five minutes fifteen seconds for an extended period of time and a fuelled missile held at T-two minutes for up to two hours.

It is also interesting to note that the RAF launch team was originally intended to be one Launch Control Officer (LCO) and three warrant officer (master aircrew) Launch Control Consol Operators (LCCO); one per missile. However this was never adopted and the establishment seems to have been one LCO and LCCO per watch. although it is reasonable to assume that they would have been augmented at higher alert states.

On pp129, Boyes quotes an Air Ministry letter to Duncan Sandys, referring to Thor:

60 megatons [of] weapons at 8-10 minutes readiness are a factor an enemy could never wholly ignore

So, it would seem that it was expected that a launch crew could despatch missiles in something close to two minutes but that the realistic figure was assumed to be somewhat longer?

YS

[Pontius Navigator]

Thank you, that is the thrust of the question. Every second after the first BMEWS detection would have increased the counter launch window.

I wonder too, in a target rich environment like the UK, would they have aimed at a timed plan to avoid fratricide?

I do know that in post-launch exercises the nuclear bomb plot play would last for half an hour so before the fallout plotting play began. Whether that was a pure exercise construct or what they thought would happen I don't know.

[Yellow Sun]

I wonder too, in a target rich environment like the UK, would they have aimed at a timed plan to avoid fratricide?

I doubt that we shall ever know the answer to that one. One would imagine that there would have been some effort made to deconflict but it may be that the targeting priorities would have overridden it.

I tend to think that a first strike plan would have been simple, relying on simultaneous launch. At that time, the advantages of simultaneous penetration were not so important (no ABM) and simultaneous detonation would have been more difficult to achieve. Having said that, some smallish timing elements would have been available with target allocation taking into account differing time of flight but that would have been at the expense of range advantage for the more forward based units. Who knows?

Some time ago I did briefly play around with the plotting the cross range lines for some Thor pad alignments and then superimposing a range bracket. You could then have a stab at what the target sets may have been. I wouldn't say that there were any surprises.

I do know that in post-launch exercises the nuclear bomb plot play would last for half an hour so before the fallout plotting play began. Whether that was a pure exercise construct or what they thought would happen I don't know.

I am not sure how grounded in any likely reality that was. The initial strikes, perhaps but I'm pretty sure that we would barely have noticed any respite before the follow on waves.

They were dark days,
YS

[Pontius Navigator]

. the answer to that one.

Some time ago I did briefly play around with the plotting the cross range lines for some Thor pad alignments and then superimposing a range bracket. You could then have a stab at what the target sets may have been. I wouldn't say that there were any surprises.

As it happens, I recall an int briefing, I can't recall exactly when but probably the Bomber Command Int Team, and we were told that they knew all the SS4 targets from the Baltic States. Clearly the same process you used.

I just did a finger exercise yesterday and came up with between 50 and 100 first priority targets (1968) for the SS4. I wonder how many they had; they would have needed at least double that number of missiles.

[CNH]

As part of the report that cancelled Blue Streak, it was estimated that between 300 and 400 missiles with 3MT warheads and a cep of 0.55 miles would take out all the silos.
How realistic a scenario that was is another matter.

[Pontius Navigator]

CNH, that is a lot of kill. How many targets?

With a maximum error of 1.25 nm 3xSS4 should kill a soft target like an airfield. Against a hardened target with a smaller footprint, maybe 5.

[CNH]

60 underground silos.

[Yellow Sun]

As part of the report that cancelled Blue Streak, it was estimated that between 300 and 400 missiles with 3MT warheads and a cep of 0.55 miles would take out all the silos.
How realistic a scenario that was is another matter.


Yes, quite, I was never sure whether to classify this sort of thing as "The Mathematics of Madness" or the "Statistics of Psychosis". When you looked at some of it a bit more closely you found some pretty big incommensurables were either ignored or supposedly mitigated by increasing the number of strikes. The fratricide issue that PN mentioned earlier is a classic example of this. How do you reduce it but still maintain the intensity of bombardment? Most of the answers seemed to be to just throw more at it.

YS

[Heathrow Harry]

Where were they planning to put the silos??

Presumably in groups of 3 or 4 but even those would have to spaced out. Salisbury plain, catterick, horse guards parade,spadeadam............

[Yellow Sun]

Where were they planning to put the silos??

Presumably in groups of 3 or 4 but even those would have to spaced out. Salisbury plain, catterick, horse guards parade,spadeadam............

O.R. 1139 dated 29 August 1958:

.....5-10 underground launching sites around a central domestic and technical facility.

......degree of protection afforded...against a 1 megaton yield warhead exploding on the ground or in the air at half a nautical mile from the site without warning...

Appendix to CMS. 3341/59 (Held in TNA):

II. Site Criteria
(1) Rock mass (hard chalk, limestone or better) not less than 300 feet thick and preferably with no overburden. But if overburden is present it must be soft and not more than 25 feet thick.

V. Design of Site
(2) The site will be about 3 acres in extent

Other than identifying suitable geological areas, I doubt that very much effort went into basing options. Clearly much of Eastern England would be deemed unsuitable and one could assume that it would be preferred to utilise locations already under MoD control. I'm not sure what's under Salisbury Plain, but Otterburn, Catterick and Sennybridge training areas would be eminently suitable. Similarly, large areas of Wales, the South West and Scotland would also meet the criteria.

I suspect that any deployment would have followed a similar pattern to what the French did on Plateau d'Albion (https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/france/plateau_d-albion.htm). After all there are only so methods available.

Maybe someone will uncover a study somewhere, but given the number of iterations the Thor basing plan went through before being implemented, there's no guarantee that it would resemble what might have been executed.

Grim stuff

YS

[Heathrow Harry]

I suspect that definition was carefully drafted to INCLUDE Salisbury Plain

https://www.wiltshiregeologygroup.org.uk/geology/

[CNH]

By the time of cancellation, the design of the launcher was very well advanced, but no firm decisions had been taken as to where they might have have been sited. There had been a large number of inconclusive surveys, but but that stage, decisions needed to be taken fairly urgently. Whitehall in particular was dead set against Blue Streak deployment.