Mount Agung Indonesia eruption

[A0283]

27nov2017 about 1501 EU central - eruption symbol suddenly pops up on FR24 (which overlays the volcano circle symbol that has been showing eruption activity for at least a number of days now).
Lion Air LNI 697 / JT696 (SUB-KOE) was just passing at that moment with JT697 (KOE-SUB) just passing the other way to Surabaya.
Both flights were passing through the northern top of the 'hexagons' ... dont exactly know what the hexagons are based on (perhaps BNPB)... They are a bit different from the Sigmet 'hexagons'.

Bali/Denpasar (DPS/WADD) was closed but I understand Lombok had just been reopend today. Let me check that.... because of ash Bali was closed from monday to tuesday morning (news of early this morning). With about 445 flights cancelled.

Volcano status was upto level 4 I think because it went magmatik.

@DaveReidUK ... Dave last tuesday a phreatic eruption started ... all about definitions :-) ... now going magmatik

[A0283]

Agung (3142 m), AREA Indonesia, ERUPTION CONTINUOUS VA EMISSION TO FL300

Observations - ISSUE TIME 2017-11-27T12:50:00Z

Current ash area - VA CLD SFC/FL300 S0911 E11519 S0904 E11608 S0844 E11621 S0814 E11621 S0748 E11559 S0750 E11518 S0816 E11453 S0854 E11455 MOV W 5KT

Forecasts -

VALID 2017-11-27T18:50:00Z -- First forecasted ash area (usually +6 hours) - VA CLD 6 HR 27/1850Z SFC/FL300 S0912 E11442 S0930 E11526 S0920 E11609 S0853 E11626 S0807 E11613 S0755 E11533 S0815 E11438

VALID 2017-11-28T00:50:00Z -- Second forecasted ash area (usually +12 hours) - VA CLD 12 HR 28/0050Z SFC/FL300 S0918 E11433 S0938 E11508 S0927 E11611 S0843 E11610 S0801 E11556 S0756 E11520 S0820 E11415

VALID 2017-11-28T06:50:00Z -- Third forecasted ash area (usually +18 hours) - VA CLD 18 HR 28/0650Z SFC/FL300 S0953 E11440 S0845 E11601 S0803 E11557 S0746 E11517 S0816 E11345

Remarks -- VA IS UNIDENTIFIABLE ON CURRENT IMAGERY DUE TO MET CLOUD. WEBCAM AND GROUND REPORTS INDICATE ERPUTION CONTINUES AT CONSTANT RATE. HEIGHT AND MOVEMENT BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND HYSPLIT MODEL GUIDANCE.

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FR24 has added an eruption symbol to Dukono (volcano NNE of Agung) as well.

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UTC 1600 monday is 0016 local time tuesday, still dark there, so clear to see via cctv that activity is going down a bit at the moment,
UTC 1647 monday is 0047 local time tuesday, still dark there, ... via cctv that almost no activity is visible.
UTC 1722 monday is 0122 local time tuesday, still dark there, ... via cctv again some activity visible.

[MATELO]

Google have a red circle as well indicating an eruption. (incl of disaster emergency numbers)

[DaveReidUK]

From the BBC News a few moments ago: "Even the experts are struggling to predict what the volcano will do next"Well except the volcano experts at Google and FR24.

Let's just wait and see.

[Genghis the Engineer]

I've never met an expert volcanologist (and I have met a few) who claimed to be able to predict a volcano's behaviour with any reliability. (Or for that matter, to be able to tell you reasonably accurately what was coming out of it whilst it was erupting either.)

[A0283]

On this forum as I understand it its more about the effect of ongoing volcanic events and their effect on airtraffic and airports than on predicting eruptions. So Mount Agung is interesting but Dukono hardly.

Volcanologists are indeed pretty clear about the difficulty of prediction.

[clark y]

A0283, Mt Agung has a history of larger eruptions. Apparently the last on in 1963 was around the size of Mt. St. Helens. Www.volcanodiscovery.com is a website (no, they don't pay me) which has a global listing of basically all volcanos with links. If you look up Mt Agung, you will find links to live webcams and live seismographs. Upon looking at the data you can see why there is interest in this hill.
As for Dukono, it has been puffing away up to about 7,000' as long as I can remember. It seems a lot more stable therefore less interest.

[A0283]

Nearby developing Tropical Cyclone Cempaka ( eye to peak still about 265nm ) and other comparable weather makes this an interesting mix. Makes you wonder how many people there are who are specialized in the interaction of volcano eruptions and extreme weather !-).

[lomapaseo]

Ash causes lightning and rain.

I'll have to go to my ouija board to work out what happens to the pressure in a storm gradient with ash.

[4Greens]

Dont forget the BA that lost all engines in a volcano eruption in this part of the world. They eventually got them going to land ok. There was no NOTAM for the cloud as the Indonesian system didnt display one. Australia knew about it but at the time wasnt allowed to issue a NOTAM for something in someones airspace. This has been changed.

[RatherBeFlying]

There's a number who have been caught in the wrong place during an eruption.

[WingNut60]

Nearby developing Tropical Cyclone Cempaka ( eye to peak still about 265nm ) and other comparable weather makes this an interesting mix. Makes you wonder how many people there are who are specialized in the interaction of volcano eruptions and extreme weather !-).

A cyclone passing on it's way to N-W Australia may effect Bali with rain, etc but don't expect much more than that.
Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is urging the public to prepare for extreme weather conditions for the next three days, but mainly for Sumatera and Jawa.
It's start of the rainy season anyway for Bali.

How will it interact with the Agung event? I'll let you know next week.

[Global Aviator]

What has not been mentioned yet is if Agung gets angrier where will the ash cloud end up? If a cyclone brews in the region that will only assist to intensify the spread depending on the winds.

Remember a few years ago an Indo volcanic eruption closed an Australian airport, not to mention re routing of flights to Aus from Asia.

If I was in Bali I know I’d be trying to get on a boat, or renting a villa for the next month and enjoying life.

[WingNut60]

Unlikely that ash from Agung would ever affect flights from JKT or SIN, etc to Perth.
It all tends to stream east, as it's doing now. Admittedly not always, but generally so.

Tropical cyclone activity might disperse it down over northern Oz, Cape York, etc
Can't see it bothering Melbourne or Sydney.

[A0283]

ICAO template message - Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA):
Last Issued: 20171127/2316Z
Current Aviation Color Code: RED
Volcanic Activity Summary: Eruption with volcanic ash cloud at 2310 UTC (0710 LT). Eruption and ash emission is continuing.
Volcanic Cloud Height: Best estimate of ash-cloud top is around 22854 FT (7142 M) above sea level, may be higher than what can be observed clearly. Source of height data: ground observer.
Other Volcanic Cloud Information: Ash cloud moving to west - southwest.
Remarks: Seismic activity is characterized by tremor and low freq earhtquakes.

[WingNut60]

......Other Volcanic Cloud Information: Ash cloud moving to west - southwest.
Remarks: Seismic activity is characterized by tremor and low freq earhtquakes.

Yes, a bit uncharacteristic but looks like that cyclone activity south of Java is drawing air in from all directions, including from the east (Bali).

[wheels_down]

Even if it affected Darwin, they have minimal flights it wouldn’t be a huge concern. Few mining airports along the WA coast only ferrying in/out workers which is nothing compared to the volume of some of these Asian Airports handle.

Airline Bosses love these sort of events. What a way to blame any profit miss or mismanagement....simply blame the volcano for everything.

[Metro man]

Airport now reopening but could close again if the wind shifts.

[DirtyProp]

Volcanologists are indeed pretty clear about the difficulty of prediction.I believe it also depends on the particular nature of the volcano, since they can have very different characteristics and behaviour.
For instance, the Etna is active pretty much all the time and it spouts magma on an almost continuous basis. So much so that its height is never the same.
As such it's much easier to "predict" its behaviour compared to say the Vesuvius which alternates very long periods of quiescence to short bursts of massive eruptions.
It also helps if the volcano is monitored constantly, obviously.
Apologies for drifting.

[A0283]

Agung 20171128/2349Z
(1) VOLCANO OBSERVATORY NOTICE FOR AVIATION - VONA
(2) Issued : 20171128/2349Z
(3) Volcano : Agung (264020)
(4) Current Aviation Colour Code : ORANGE
(5) Previous Aviation Colour Code : red
(6) Source : Agung Volcano Observatory
(7) Notice Number : 2017AGU21
(8) Volcano Location : S 08 deg 20 min 31 sec E 115 deg 30 min 29 sec
(9) Area : Bali, Indonesia
(10) Summit Elevation : 10054 FT (3142 M)
(11) Volcanic Activity Summary : Ash cloud is observed at 2245 UTC (0645 local). Ash emission is continuing.
(12) Volcanic Cloud Height : Best estimate of ash-cloud top is around 16454 FT (5142 M) above sea level, may be higher than what can be observed clearly. Source of height data: ground observer.
(13) Other Volcanic Cloud Information : Ash-cloud moving to southeast.
(14) Remarks : Seismic activity is characterized by volcanotectonic earthquakes and volcanic tremor.

[OldLurker]

Volcanic Cloud Height : Best estimate of ash-cloud top is around 16454 FT (5142 M) above sea level, may be higher than what can be observed clearly. Source of height data: ground observer.Spurious precision, surely! It looks as if the ground observer estimated "around 2000m above the summit", then added the height of the summit, making the precise-looking height of 5142m which was then converted to feet inaccurately (5142m is 16870ft). Similarly with the earlier notice quoted in post #15.

[A0283]

@Ye Olde Lurker ... Think you might call that an astute observation ;-)

[WingNut60]

I hope they get new batteries for the calculator quickly if that all originates from DPS Met. (BMKG).

[A0283]

Just starting again i guess... Relatively high fight level for starters

WAAA-WAAZ UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT AGUNG PSN S0821 E11530 VA CLD OBS AT 2310Z SFC/FL140 MOV NW 10KT=

No VONA (Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation) yet.

No cloud directly above the volcano. Were some short seismic burps about hour and a halve ago.

[Heathrow Harry]

The Boys and Girls in Bandung do what they can - 200 people to watch 17000 volcanoes including around 70 active at any one time on a 24/7 watch.

Indonesia's TOTAL budget for natural disaster response is only US$ 296 mm

[A0283]

For those in the area or interested .. At the moment some visible activity.. Just before 10:00local a small mushroom cloud which quickly moves. Sinabung on Orange as usual and Dukono active too.

[Ranger One]

The Boys and Girls in Bandung do what they can - 200 people to watch 17000 volcanoes including around 70 active at any one time on a 24/7 watch.

Indonesia's TOTAL budget for natural disaster response is only US$ 296 mm

I know a couple of people professionally involved in this field - and they have the utmost respect for Indonesian volcanologists and the quality of their work. They're world class; very good at what they do; they have to be!

The top guy there - Surono is his name - is one of the best public safety volcanologists in the world; the eruption forecasts produced by him and his team have saved huge numbers of lives.

[Heathrow Harry]

They sure get a lot of practice!!!!

There are just so many volcanoes there