Mt Agung Erupts

[*Lancer*]

Ash cloud to FL150 moving S/SW. VA/QF/JQ diverting back to Aust.

At least an hour ago and nothing in the media.

[Flying Binghi]

More global warming on the way..:hmm:





.

[wheels_down]

I wonder when the Indo carriers stop? Schedule before Safety for them I guess.

[cbradio]

Last time it wasn't just the Indo carriers. Cathay, Singapore, all the Chinese, Qatar , KLM etc etc all kept flying except when the airspace/airport was closed (obviously).
I think its more the threat of having aircraft stuck there that deters the oz airlines, but it's better to play the safety card.

[Metro man]

The airlines in that region can easily do a 180 and return to the departure airport if Bali closes. Airlines coming from Australia are looking at a diversion with hotel rooms, crew rest requirements and the aircraft being unavailable for 12 hours.

It's similar to fog in Sydney, a flight from Melbourne takes a bit extra fuel and tries to arrive as it clears. A flight from Los Angeles needs to reschedule to avoid a major knock on effect.

[paperHanger]

It's similar to fog in Sydney, a flight from Melbourne takes a bit extra fuel and tries to arrive as it clears.

Not really, it trashes the engines.

The ash in the air turns to glass in the compbustion chamber and then accumulates on the blades and guide vanes south of there ... it also acts as an abrasive on the fan blades, causing excess wear.

[Wunwing]

I agree. Its not just a scheduling issue. The "cloud" can move quickly and if you end up near it there can be enormous damage to the airframe not just the engines.

I was on the last aircraft out of Manilla when the local volcano went off and as well as engine damage all the windscreens and a number of pax windows had to be replaced and the air conditioning system had to be stripped down.

The associated weather can also be extreme. The associated cloud system makes it impossible to see the cloud around you until it too late.
You know you are where you shouldn't be when St Elmos fire on the windscreen is orange and the smell is putrid in the cabin. By then its too late.

Wunwing

[Octane]

When the volcano was at the highest alert, 737's from Melbourne were making a fuel stop at Darwin, the alternates being too close to the volcano. Just read Mataram in Lombok is closed..

[tail wheel]

Similar example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9

[Capn Bloggs]

Not really, it trashes the engines.
That wasn't what Metroman meant... ;)

[Wunwing]

No it wasn't what Metroman meant but he see it very simplistically as a short term scheduling matter. It can be, as in my case, a scheduling matter because the aircraft can be out of the system for an extended period well beyond a simple turn back.

I might add in addition to engineering repercussions, that I wouldn't recommend accidentally getting into the weather patterns that Volcanic eruptions can create. They are not fun.

Wunwing

[wheels_down]

As Jetstar has demonstrated once before.

Jetstar faces $20m ash cloud damage bill after Airbus flies into Ash (https://thewest.com.au/news/australia/20m-ash-cloud-damage-bill-ng-ya-366279)

[Octane]

Apparently Agung is erupting now. Denpasar closed, ash on the ground..

[The Green Goblin]

Waiting for the big boom. She’ll blow herself to bits.

It’s going to leave the operators who have a large fleet exposure to the dps market very exposed.

I’m gathering this will go on for some time.

[Global Aviator]

All about risk management, when it’s just the ash cloud Aussie Operators tend to err on the side of safety, as industry professionals we accept this. The problem is when Garuda and Air Asia launch pax go but why can’t you? They just don’t get it.

As for the Jetstar encounter mentioned above, yes that was a flight into unreported ash in the wee hours of the morning, expensive but lucky!

On the corporate jet side it’s no different some go some don’t.

Yes if Agung goes big it will really hurt Bali for sometime. Although no airline really depends on the market alone. Unlike what was the airline Air Pacific? A310s has 4 of them? Starting to really do well then the bombings......

[Octane]

Global,

Maybe you mean Air Paradise?

[Global Aviator]

Yep that’s if, yes irrelevant but my point being no airline relies solely on Bali alone.

Ok Air Bali and the Caravans..... (and ��).

[Metro man]

The last major eruption lasted for a year. Some flights may be able to operate day VFR with favourable winds and carefully planned routes but the effect on tourism will be devastating. It’s now peak season and the holiday plans for thousands of people have been disrupted, not forgetting the local population who are in evacuation centres.

Few people would book a holiday knowing their outbound flight may be cancelled at short notice or that they could be unable to return home without an extended delay. Destinations such as Fiji and NZ will become more attractive for Australians.

Plans are in place to get visitors out with buses and ferries to Surabaya, currently there are around 60 000 in Bali.

Hopefully the scale won’t be on the level of Mt Pinatubo which deposited ash 30cm deep in parts of the Philippines. A massive ash cloud drifting around the airways between Australia and Asia will require extensive and costly rerouting for airlines.

Hopefully the knowledge gained from the eruption of the volcano in Iceland in 2010 can be applied, Europe was basically grounded for five days. Whilst no commercial aircraft suffered any damage, ash was found in the engines of some military jets. That eruption sent ash into the jet stream which spread it over a wide area.

[Duck Pilot]

Ring of fire destroyed Rabaul in 94......

This volcano has been hot for a while, if it goes off bigtiime it wil be interesting to see where the ash ends up particularly given the onset of the monsoonal season. Heard yesterday that there is the possibility of a cyclone forming in the Indian Ocean south of Bali later this week.

[mustafagander]

An answer as I see it is firstly to stop taking the bogans to Bali until Gurung Agung settles down and in the meantime position a big aircraft, say B744 if QF can spare one, to DRW and when the VACC says it will be OK, depart DRW to arrive over DPS about 15 minutes after first light and, subject to the ash not being at DPS, two rotations can be done to DRW during daylight hours to get the bogans out to DRW. That should make a big dent in the problem.

[jolihokistix]

Not to forget the horrific 1989 experience of KLM 747 over Anchorage, losing all four engines, falling 3,000 meters, and causing USD 80 million in damage.

[Duck Pilot]

Good idea musta although that wouldn’t work if there is any ash on the runway. If the wind is blowing the wrong way the airport could have meters of ash on it.

Media are now reporting that the airport is now closed.

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-11-27/AP/Images/APTOPIX_Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_61216.jpg-46484.jpg (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-11-27/AP/Images/APTOPIX_Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_61216.jpg-46484.jpg)

[VHFRT]

Plans are in place to get visitors out with buses and ferries to Surabaya, currently there are around 60 000 in Bali. .

Any info on these plans? Have some family stuck there and the Aussie carriers seem to just be pushing people out a few days and hoping for the best.

It’s a rough situation. The airlines don’t assist other than rebooking in the future, and I’ve spoken with the insurer who say they just call it a “travel inconvenience” which is limited to a $500 claim

[Metro man]

This is just the first stages, wait till the lava starts running down the slopes and fire is spewing out.

Buses have reportedly been deployed to the airport and members of the Indonesian hotel association are giving guests an extra night free.

[PoppaJo]

Here is the live youtube feed for those interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=islcMmfHHqE

[jolihokistix]

Insects buzzing around, and the occasional firework.
Pretty impressive presence up there above the little lights of civilization!

[Heathrow Harry]

load 'em all into small boats and let them make their own way home................

[PPRuNeUser0184]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RybNI0KB1bg

And what of the poor stranded schoolies..........let's all take a moment to pray that they have plenty of data to update Facebook/Snapchat/instagram/tinder/grinder/selfies and easy access to iPhone charging.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RybNI0KB1bg

[WingNut60]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RybNI0KB1bg

And what of the poor stranded schoolies..........let's all take a moment to pray that they have plenty of data to update Facebook/Snapchat/instagram/tinder/grinder/selfies and easy access to iPhone charging.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RybNI0KB1bg

Every tourist currently trapped on Bali (and they're really not trapped at all, there are ways out) went there knowing that there was a risk of this happening.
For those who are just making the best they can of it, I offer my empathy and best wishes.
For those doing the whingeing and whining, shut the F.... up. You knew what you were doing when you boarded the plane to go there.

[PPRuNeUser0184]

Every tourist currently trapped on Bali (and they're really not trapped at all, there are ways out) went there knowing that there was a risk of this happening.
For those who are just making the best they can of it, I offer my empathy and best wishes.
For those doing the whingeing and whining, shut the F.... up. You knew what you were doing when you boarded the plane to go there.

Amen to that bro

[Fris B. Fairing]

Volcanoes are controlled by the airlines. They are used to disrupt flights.

[C441]

Volcanoes are controlled by the airlines. They are used to disrupt flights.
…..and gouge more money out of the unsuspecting travellers who are only travelling to Bali 'cause it's cheap! "Those bloody airlines are making' us stay 'ere so they can get more cash outta us. Jungle Air had twenny flights in 'ere today an' they flew straight through the volcano smoke 'n they didn't crash - I saw 'em!"

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/27/Foreign/Images/2017-11-27T121937Z_637078496_RC1DA8C116E0_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-VOLCANO-4779.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/27/Foreign/Images/2017-11-27T121937Z_637078496_RC1DA8C116E0_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-VOLCANO-4779.jpg)

[Metro man]

Standby for all the stories about people stuck in Bali and running out of vital medicine because they didn't bring any extra along with them just incase.

[zanzibar]

load 'em all into small boats and let them make their own way home................


LOL - lots of Indonesian boat skippers ready to do the trip 😂😂😂😂

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-11-28/AP/Images/Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_Photo_Gallery_03100.jpg-25e8a.jpg (https://img.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2017-11-28/AP/Images/Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_Photo_Gallery_03100.jpg-25e8a.jpg)

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/APTOPIX_Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_74471-a7cb6.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/APTOPIX_Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_74471-a7cb6.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/2017-11-28T110130Z_1269036819_RC1552D69D30_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-VOLCANO.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/2017-11-28T110130Z_1269036819_RC1552D69D30_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-VOLCANO.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/2017-11-28T110127Z_1478623608_RC1118E2C340_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-VOLCANO.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/2017-11-28T110127Z_1478623608_RC1118E2C340_RTRMADP_3_INDONESIA-VOLCANO.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_Photo_Gallery_71889-fe12f.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_Photo_Gallery_71889-fe12f.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6NM.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6NM.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6NN.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6NN.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6FH.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6FH.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6HJ.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/AFP_UN6HJ.jpg)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1200w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_97141-b568a.jpg (https://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/11/28/Foreign/Images/Indonesia_Bali_Volcano_97141-b568a.jpg)

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

The photographs actually came variously from Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, European Pressphoto Agency, Agencia-EFE, Reuters and Getty Images.

[WingNut60]

Winds in DPS now from the west however at altitude (20K+) still from the north.
Does not bode well for opening Ngurah Rai but Lombok might be OK.

If forecasts are correct, by next Monday ash may even start to affect airports on Java

[Metro man]

Airport now reopening but may close again at any time.

[WingNut60]

Announced that Jetstar, Qantas and Virgin Australia are to launch rescue flights to bring stranded holidaymakers back from Bali.
Jetstar said they would not be taking passengers up to Bali — only bringing people back.

While I can see the apparent logic for that, it does presume that all of their passengers are holidaying Australians.
It steps around the possibility that some passengers might be Indonesians wanting to get home. They may even be Balinese.
I could get a bit agitated myself if, in those circumstances, I were offered a ticket to Singapore instead.

[Wunwing]

Having been involved in a few "rescue" missions I'd say if that's correct then they are looking at a narrow window to get people out. If there is no fuelling and no pax and bags to offload, then the turnaround can be done very quickly.I assume this op is daylight only, so no inbound may be the difference between an extra flights/day or not.

The airlines normally work together in these situations so its possible Garuda or another Indonesian operator is looking after the inbound.

[WingNut60]

My niece and her friend just departed PER on Batik flight to DPS.
Not the only ones on the plane, but close.

TC Dahlia will start pulling air from the east (Bali) very soon, if it's not doing so already.
But reduced activity at the moment is giving some relief with the ash cloud.

[Metro man]

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/bali/bali-volcano-qantas-jetstar-rescue-flights-cancelled-as-mt-agung-ash-cloud-moves-ng-b88677555z

Bali volcano: Qantas, Jetstar rescue flights cancelled as Mt Agung ash cloud moves
Geoffrey Thomas, Aviation Editor, PerthNow
December 1, 2017 9:00AM
Jetstar and Qantas have cancelled all flights from Bali this afternoon because of new information on the movement of the ash cloud.

Both airlines had been in a race against forecast wind changes and the imminent explosive eruption of Mount Agung to clear passengers stranded on the holiday island.

The two airlines will still operate 11 flights this morning and early afternoon but neither airline is taking passengers to Bali.

It is unclear at this stage what other airlines are doing and passengers are urged to check airlines websites.

More tremors occurred yesterday and overnight and the time between them is decreasing while their strength is increasing according to the Indonesian seismic reports.

A major escalation of the eruption is expected at any time.

However, there has been a significant reduction in the amount of ash coming from Mount Agung prompting some officials to comment that the eruption may be over.

But on Twitter, noted volcanologist Dr Janine Krippner said that “this does not mean it is over”.

“Fluctuations in activity are a normal part of the life of volcanoes,” Dr Krippner said.

Indonesia’s Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Centre also warned that a more violent eruption remains likely.

Devy Kamil Syahbana, of the PVMBG, told Reuters: "We cannot predict whether it will be bigger than 1963, but according to our evaluation the potential for a full-scale eruption is still high.”

In 1963 the Mt Agung eruption killed more than 1600 and lasted over a year.

[LostProperty]

Just noticed VH-OJT on the tarmac at DPS and leaving shortly for SYD. A check on Flight Aware reveals that she also did SYD-DPS-SYD yesterday. Bit surprised QF could rustle up a 747 for Bali.

[WingNut60]

Just noticed VH-OJT on the tarmac at DPS and leaving shortly for SYD. A check on Flight Aware reveals that she also did SYD-DPS-SYD yesterday. Bit surprised QF could rustle up a 747 for Bali.

Does it have windows ?

[mustafagander]

As I hear it QF is a bit oversupplied with B744s to effect rescues when the A380 Blunderbuss falls over again somewhere. Hence it is available. Crewing, however, may be a different story.

[C441]

Or the A380 doing Hong Kong frees up a 744.