Finnish Fighter Competition

[ORAC]

Looks like a pretty standard list of the current available aircraft. Replace their current F-18s with F/A-18E/F/G, the other options being F-35A, Gripe, Rafale and Typhoon.

Can’t see anything but the F-18 and Gripen being within their budget for 64 airframes.

MoD: At least 64 fighter jets needed to defend Finland (https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/mod_at_least_64_fighter_jets_needed_to_defend_finland/9946949)

Finland's Ministry of Defence plans to send out invitations to tender for the purchase of 64 new fighter jets. The new jets will replace the current stock of 64 F/A-18 Hornet jets, which have served the Finnish military since 1992. The defence report, which was approved by the Parliament in February, says that the readiness of the current fleet must be fully maintained after the procurement.

"We have interpreted that to mean 64 fighter jets. Because the new jets are not faster and can't stay up in the air any longer than the current ones, we will require the same number of jets to maintain the performance of our air defence", says Lauri Puranen from the Ministry. "That is the minimum number we need to defend a country of this size."

Parliament has decided that it will spend between 7 and 10 billion euros the new jets, which will make the acquisition the most purchase by Finland ever. The ministry said it will send out invitations to tender in early 2018 to Boeing and Lockheed Martin from the US, Saab from Sweden, Dessault Aviation in France and the British-European BAE Systems.

The new government taking up office in 2019 will make a decision about purchasing fighter jets to replace the current stock of Hornet jets at the end of 2021. The current fleet will be retired by 2030.....

[etudiant]

Somewhat surprised that no Russian jet is on the short list.
China could conceivably make an offer as well, but Russia and Finland have long had mutually beneficial relations and this purchase is an opportunity to put things back on track.

[ORAC]

Don’t be. Do a search over Finnish fears of Putin and a resurgent Russia. Their links with NATO have increased substantially, and to almost a defence pact with Norway and Sweden.

[Just This Once...]

I’m struggling to think of an export customer who actually gets meaningful support from Russia post-sale. Even without the politics a Russian-sourced FJ fleet can be problematic.

[Royalistflyer]

And of course the Americans would never dream of cutting off spare parts to a customer who didn't toe their line. No, perish the thought.

[rjtjrt]

And of course the Americans would never dream of cutting off spare parts to a customer who didn't toe their line. No, perish the thought.

The UK has cut off support to at least one customer who was involved in active operations in the past. The customer involved was historically very close to UK.

[Royalistflyer]

Of course it did,so there's no need to sneer at the Russians then

[Just This Once...]

And of course the Americans would never dream of cutting off spare parts to a customer who didn't toe their line. No, perish the thought.

Reading glasses required as I did say 'even without the politics'.

US & European aviation does have the capacity and resources to support their export jets where as Russia struggles to do so. Those who purchase a Russian product often finds themselves with a pile of dead engines, a brace of unsupported LRUs and a wall of silence over technical issues.

Even those who have paid handsomely for their aircraft and achieved contractual through-life support have had considerable issues (e.g. India). Those without such muscle usually fair much worse. Often this includes Russian forces.

Again, I am not questioning the ability for the US and Europe to turn-off the support tap, just noting the inability for Russia to turn the tap on in the first place.

[A_Van]

... Often this includes Russian forces.
....


Change present indefinite (tense) to past indefinite, or, better yet, to past perfect.


Sounds like a 10-20 year old stuff.

[Just This Once...]

Not really Van, things were still pretty bad in 2013, even with a number of years of stimulus. Looking back with the clarity of hindsight it was probably 2014/15 that saw a marked improvement in the support, maintenance and availability to the more modern parts of the Russian Air Force. 2016 was arguably more impressive when the logistics system was given a serious pull-through. It is now possible to see a complete end-to-end (from manufacturer to frontline) deployable system for the Russian AF. Given the stretch on operational forces this new-found capability has not been reflected in export support.

The problem with rose-tinted glasses and pride is that it can mask what has been a massive and genuine improvement from what was a terrible position. The shift in genuine capability from 2012 to 2017 has been remarkable.

[West Coast]

Somewhat surprised that no Russian jet is on the short list.

Ties with NATO draw closer at a minimum, joining the organization even a possibility, the common sense approach would be to purchase kit that would intergrate with a minimum of fuss.

[etudiant]

Ties with NATO draw closer at a minimum, joining the organization even a possibility, the common sense approach would be to purchase kit that would intergrate with a minimum of fuss.

NATO ties may not be in Finlands interest.
The country has done best acting as Russia's 'window to the west', a role hard to sustain if they join NATO. Certainly Finland is suffering currently because Russia is not buying as much from them as before. Politicians are surely conscious of that aspect.

[West Coast]

Maybe, the obvious being that any desire to join NATO, however unpopular is driven by Vlad’s expansionism. A relationship built on fear is hardly advantageous to Finland.

[ORAC]

Without trying to attract any more Russian trolls, the reason why Finland is not looking at any Russian aircraft is that they don’t trust them, refuse to sit on the fence any more, and are uncreasingly moving towards NATO membership. None an argument for or against, just a statement of fact.

https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-russia-nato-wary-finns-take-another-look/

[Heathrow Harry]

The Finns are VERY careful about Russia - as they are one of the few Western countries with a long border with them they have to be. Plus Finland does a lot of trade with Russia

It would be a major step to join NATO and I suspect they wouldn't gain much of an advantage TBH - I'd bet they'll stay in the current "fuzzy" relationship while still keeping their armed forces well equipped

[Just This Once...]

Finland crossed that rubicon when they joined the EU defence pact. The sky didn't fall in either.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian treaty with those friendly Russians didn't exactly last long.

[Heathrow Harry]

Ukraine was part of Russia up to 1991, Finland was never taken over by the Russians after it left in 1917 - not even in 1945 when it they could have had it for free

Sure it was in a sort of neutral no mans land from 1945 to 1991 but it seemed to suit both sides. Not everyone wants to be the site of a battle between the West & the East

[West Coast]

I'm sure Vlad is thankful to you HH for making his argument.

[Just This Once...]

Ukraine was part of Russia up to 1991...

Nope, not true. Being occupied by Russia as part of the Soviet Union did not make it Russia. Just as the brief German occupation of Ukraine make it part of Germany.

As for your dates, well in 1994 Russia co-signed a treaty to recognise the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ukraine. 20 years later Russia's little green men helped themselves. Regarding facts:

"what does it say about the mendacity of Russian diplomacy and its contempt for international opinion when the foreign minister says something that can be proven wrong with less than 30 seconds of Google fact-checking?"

[KenV]

And of course the Americans would never dream of cutting off spare parts to a customer who didn't toe their line. No, perish the thought.There appears to be some confusion. There's zero doubt that Russia, the US, the UK, France, Germany, China, and basically any nation that exports military gear could and likely would withdraw support of those weapons under certain political conditions. The REAL question is whether those "conditions" are more likely to arise for the Finns from the Americans, the Europeans, or the Russians. The answer is obvious.

And this ignores the difficulty Russian industry has in providing through life support to their own armed forces in the first place. Never mind to export customers.

[etudiant]

There appears to be some confusion. There's zero doubt that Russia, the US, the UK, France, Germany, China, and basically any nation that exports military gear could and likely would withdraw support of those weapons under certain political conditions. The REAL question is whether those "conditions" are more likely to arise for the Finns from the Americans, the Europeans, or the Russians. The answer is obvious.

And this ignores the difficulty Russian industry has in providing through life support to their own armed forces in the first place. Never mind to export customers.

Actually, export customers provide real money, sometimes better than the national government.
Obviously that can lead to more abuse, requiring expensive overhauls too often a simple example. So careful contracts are essential unless one has ample political clout.
That said, Finland was a Grand Duchy of Russia until 1917, so there are lots of very long term relationships. Finland has prospered as a bridge between Russia and the west, it has no experience as an armed outpost aimed at Russia, not even during the coldest days of the cold war.

[A_Van]

As mentioned by the topic starter, an idea regarding F-18 or Grippen looks very reasonable. Either one of the most reliable companies in the world in that business segment (which they have experience with), or a neighbour (that might be transparent for them to a large extent).

And I do not see any "militaristic" aspect here at all. If they were really afraid of "Russian invasion", they would spend their budget to buy PAC-3, MLRS (against "invading" land forces), Javelins, Apaches and so on, but not fighter aircraft as they cannot intercept modern (or yet to come) missiles and munitions. Looking at the map one can easily see that Russian AF do not need to enter their airspace to strike. Are they (Finns) going to enter ours? I don't think so.

IMHO the reality is that their current fleet is running out of lifespan and a replacement is needed. Nothing more. If they have AF (and not a bad one), they prefer to keep it at a certain level to maintain a certain status.

For Russia, the best option would be their purchase of F-35. Would be a great complimentary add-on for training of radar guys :-)

[Heathrow Harry]

"I'm sure Vlad is thankful to you HH for making his argument."

one I've heard from a lot of Finns while working in Helsinki TBH - they have a more nuanced view of their neighbour having spent a lot of time watching them

Dosn't mean to say they wouldn't fight - the Russians know they would so why bother............ taking over Finland isn't going to change any strategic variable that would make the losses worthwhile

[West Coast]

Sorry Van, hard to overlook Vlad's belligerence as a part of the equation.

[ORAC]

AW&ST:

Finland Plans War Games for Fighter Contenders

Finland is gearing up to hold a simulated war game to test the candidates for its future fighter requirement. The exercise, dubbed the HX Challenge, will “verify what the candidates have said and promised in their answers,” HX Program Director Lauri Puranen wrote in a blog published on the Finnish Air Force’s website Sept. 9.......

The challenge will test the mettle of five platforms entered into the tender, with the event planned to take place in the depths of the Finnish winter in January-February at Tampere-Pirkkala AB, home to one of the Finnish Air Force’s F/A-18 wings.

Puranen says the that the HX Challenge will only be focused on the technical part of the evaluation and will not “determine the ranking of candidates.” HX candidates are being scored based on security of supply, cost, industrial collaboration and performance........

The call for tenders, ongoing since January, is now in its third and final round, with negotiations due to be completed later this month, Puranen reports. An invitation to tender will be issued by the end of the year, leading to the HX Challenge. A final selection decision will be made in 2021.

[Martin the Martian]

With the Finns and the Swiss independently opting for the F-18C Hornet last time around, it will be interesting to see if both countries again select the same aircraft type once they have concluded their evaluation/selection process this time.

[Beamr]

The bids are in.

https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/finland-quotations-hx-fighter-programme/

everyone is coupling something with the offer,
Superhornets with growlers, Gripens with GlobalEyes, F-35's with development/manufacturing, Typhoons with jobs and Rafales with... dunno, red wine?

[Beamr]

Latest news: Boeing announced today that their offer includes option to buy Loyal Wingman drones on top of the 64 Super hornets/Growlers, all within the budget.

So as LM announced earlier that their offer is up to 64 F35's within 10bn€ (in essence offering F35's on the same price range with 4th gen competitors), Boeing is matching the raise. My uneducated guess is that Boeing is trying to avoid the Swiss decision of buying F35's at all costs.

This is evolving to be rather interesting. The winner is to be announced later this year.

[Beamr]

Fresh off the local press: the Finnish Defence Forces will recommend the F35 to the MoD to be the next fast jet for the Finnish Air Force.
The recommendation is based on capability, long life span beyond 2060, counter purchases and *dramaric drumming here*... the costs of purchase and use.
To recount: up to 64 airframes with price cap of 10 billion euros and maximum annual operating costs of 250 million euros.

Whats next? The recommendation is presented by MoD to the Government, which has the final word on the matter. However, I would be amazed if the politicians would walk over the pros involved in the process for nearly a decade.
Once the government has stamped the decision, the first one to know is the government of the selling country, ie. U.S. government, and then made public. Afterwards there will be more info on the evaluation process and how different vendors coped.

Short version: based on news today the FDF recommends the F35, final decision before christmas.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Fresh off the local press: the Finnish Defence Forces will recommend the F35 to the MoD to be the next fast jet for the Finnish Air Force.
The recommendation is based on capability, long life span beyond 2060, counter purchases and *dramaric drumming here*... the costs of purchase and use.
To recount: up to 64 airframes with price cap of 10 billion euros and maximum annual operating costs of 250 million euros.

Whats next? The recommendation is presented by MoD to the Government, which has the final word on the matter. However, I would be amazed if the politicians would walk over the pros involved in the process for nearly a decade.
Once the government has stamped the decision, the first one to know is the government of the selling country, ie. U.S. government, and then made public. Afterwards there will be more info on the evaluation process and how different vendors coped.

Short version: based on news today the FDF recommends the F35, final decision before christmas.

Not surprising.

[rattman]

Sounds like finland got some very interesting deals offered up. Gripen + global eye. Super hornet + growler + loyal wingman + aim260

[Beamr]

The aim260 has never been mentioned (how does one offer something that does not exist). But as the aim120 is not mentioned either, most probable answer is that the aim260 is bundled along with the offer, one way or another. And with both US offers.

[Beamr]

Just announced, the F35 won.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12224265

[Beamr]

What is noteworthy though is that Typhoon and Rafale did not meet the tender requirements in their final offers! In the end there were only F35, Super Hornet and Gripen in between which the choice was made.

it is for now unclear in which categories exactly the Typhoon and Rafale did not meet the tender requirements, expecting that info to be available later.

[Navaleye]

I think Finland made the correct call. The other contenders weren't good enough. Hope the eventually get Meteor and ASRAAM

[SpazSinbad]

Finnish Air Force Press Release:
The Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II is Finland’s next multi-role fighter - The Finnish Air Force (ilmavoimat.fi) (https://ilmavoimat.fi/en/-/the-lockheed-martin-f-35a-lightning-ii-is-finland-s-next-multi-role-fighter)

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Never in doubt. F35 is the only gig in town. It would be interesting to see what the Typhoon offer was in terms of the airframe, such as conformal tanks…

[golder]

The Typhoon and Rafale never made it past the gate and were excluded in the finale choice.