An 'amazing' revelation

[Rated De]

In news just in, Mr Joyce has an epiphany...

According to Joyce, he can fly two 236-seat Dreamliners for less than the cost of a single 486-seat A380, which entered the Qantas fleet in 2008.
"If we were to fly two 787s tail-to-tail, the per-seat cost would be less than the A380," the Qantas CEO said.


Got to be worth $25 million surely...

Just don't tell the other 20 odd operators of the aircraft that its CASK is half an A380 :E

[dragon man]

If the Irish Einstein has figured that out then why the f##k isn’t he pushing the A380 and 747 out the door ASAP and firming up orders for 50 more 787s? A dead set goose, living proof you don’t need a long neck and feathers to be one.

[downdata]

Maybe because you have to pay for the goddamn aircrafts in the first place?

The same reason why everyone don't already own an electric car even when the cost per mile is less than 10%(!!!!) of a petrol/diesel engine?

[rmcdonal]

If the Irish Einstein has figured that out then why the f##k isn’t he pushing the A380 and 747 out the door ASAP and firming up orders for 50 more 787s? Just because you have double the aircraft running cheaper ASKs doesn't mean you have the slots to actually use them.

[compressor stall]

Exactly. Also I’d like to know if it’s just seat cost per mile in the air, or does it include the two lots of airways charges, landing fees and ground handling.

Blind Freddy can see him and others mouthing off about A or B’s weakness depending on the negotiations.

A’s argument was go big due slot constraints and B’s argument was smaller and point to point.

[Rated De]

Given the contribution of fuel per ASK (fuel included CASK) I find it incredible that this comment of Joyce's is given any credence and is considered insightful. Lowering a fuel included CASK is elementary:
Denying Qantas a big twin internationally meant the cost base laboured unnecessarily

All the while they focused on JQ, growing that business, from 36 to 120 (approximately) pushing an IR rhetoric beyond Australia that only opaque accounting shields them from the deserved scrutiny of their 'investment'

The JQ 788 a case in point: Denying Qantas domestic a twin aisle 767 equivalent and leaving it with 67 737 meant a crowding of airspace and denying Qantas an asymmetry in product Virgin could not have matched.

Etihad's USD$1.87 billion loss was largely a fleet write down ($1.07 billion)..
Although the A380 purchase was not Joyce's decision the rest has been and Qantas has gone backwards ever since he and the three ringed circus headed by Clifford sat in the seats.

The 'game changing' promise of the 787 has been witnessed by 20 odd other operators. With years of service data, the hoped for gains are readily observable, but Qantas cannot see over the dashboard and any critical thinking once the domain of the mainstream media, has been hastily abandoned for junkets and advertising!

[Capt Fathom]

If you replace one large aircraft with 2 smaller ones, won't you need twice the number of crew?

[B772]

Today MH announced their 6 x A380's will be grounded in 5 months time.

This announcement is hot on the heals of the MH CEO Peter Bellew tendering his resignation. This means they have lost 3 CEO's and 2 x B772's in 3 years.

[donpizmeov]

He just isn't trying. He could have said 3 times 737 couldn't he? 12 dash 8s perhaps?

Bloody lazy management.

[Derfred]

And it's not the whole story, is it?

Not the same premium seat complement on 2x B789 vs 1x A380. No first class, for starters.

[maggot]

And it's not the whole story, is it?

Not the same premium seat complement on 2x B789 vs 1x A380. No first class, for starters.

Yeah; more J on the 2 789s... Probably too many to compare to a 380 side by side and the economy punters are sardined!

[parabellum]

Is it still too late for QF to go for a mixed fleet of B777 (various) and B789?. When Singapore gave up on the A340-300 Boeing bought them in exchange for a triple seven order.

[Rated De]

If the Irish Einstein has figured that out then why the f##k isn’t he pushing the A380 and 747 out the door ASAPI suspect the answer is two fold: fuel prices (the reason for the transformation) and the lack of capital budget. They expended huge resources growing JQ for no tangible return (yet!!!)

It matters little the manufacturer but the simple economics of seat cost given that fuel impacts the operating revenue in a drastic way suggest to not have a twin engined international fleet is at best short sighted. It shows how little corporate governance is actually evident when statements like Mr Joyce's are considered newsworthy and somehow insightful where shareholders reward myopic strategy with the largest corporate pay cheque in Australia.

And it's not the whole story, is it?From a RASK perspective no it is not. It is quite possible that the RASK/CASK premium is better for certain configurations than others.

However any calculation of operating cost returns you to the same question; Mr Joyce is only working out now that CASK is lower on twin engined aircraft?

[Kiwithrottlejockey]

Why do you think Air New Zealand dumped the last of their four-engine airliners?


It ain't exactly rocket science.

[LeadSled]

Folks,
It is a reasonable statement to make to say that: If Qantas had had a fleet of B777 in recent years, carrying the same number of passengers as the combined B747/A380 fleet, the fuel operating cost difference would have eliminated the widely publicized "international" losses of the airline. Or, at worst, reduced the losses to the degree that the QF corporate bias against "international" operations may not have been so marked.

Or put another way, having the wrong aircraft in times of high fuel prices (or any time, really) puts you at a huge competitive AND financial disadvantage, vis a vie the airlines who have the best equipment available --- and who are now rolling over old B777 fleets into new B777 (or A350 - maybe) fleets -- CX, BA and one of the world's biggest(~140) B777 fleet operators, Emirates, CZ etc., to name only a few.
Tootle pip!!

[donpizmeov]

615 seats on a 2 class EK 380 at 11.6t/hr. Don't think those little plastic jets will even come close.

[LeadSled]

DPMO,
Looks like all those major airline managements who have ordered B777/A350, particularly those who have dumped A380 orders, have got it wrong --- I guess that's why the A380 order and production book is really humming along?
Tootle pip!!

[Bend alot]

On the longer routes to me aircraft type plays a big part in who I will book my flight with also the hub has a role.

I will take the A380 then a 747 over what would next be a 777. Other than the A380 I have not liked the twin rides I have had with Airbus. I certainly don't mind a bit of a wait in Singapore if need be.

Now the idea of running 2 Game Changers as being cheaper than 1 A380 I don't think has been fully calculated - what would the cost of getting another gate and slot (at the same premium time) at say Heathrow?

How much ground equipment will be required? How much extra labour will be needed?

What will be the provision for sick crew both during flight and pre take off (all crew)?


How many extra hotel rooms will need to be used?

What is the difference in insurance?

Will it become too temping to cut a light load flight and run just 1 Game Changer to save a few bucks? Thus giving some punters a reason to fly another airline and maybe preferring it? (As long as the Irish Man gets where he wants, he does not mind leaving other stranded.)

Real-estate at major airports is prime real-estate and not cheap and this is where 2 is better than one isn't so good.

[parabellum]

and who are now rolling over old B777 fleets into new B777 (or A350 - maybe) fleets -- CX, BA and one of the world's biggest(~140) B777 fleet operators, Emirates, CZ etc., to name only a few.
Please don't forget Singapore Airlines, right up there with the most successful in the world! :)

[donpizmeov]

You are sort of right angryrat. It plies it's trade through Copenhagen, Manchester, London and Bangkok. The slave masters still seem to like the bar behind J class.

[haughtney1]

Pissing contests aside, the 380 will trundle on for most operators as a niche machine, Don is spot on, its a mass people mover in either capacity or slot constrained airports. It hasn’t as was hoped by Toulouse revolutionised travel, it’s merely eaten a lot of European taxes and its proven to be in the wider sense a sales disappointment, having said that, it’s a nice experience to travel on but now people are used to it per se the premium that has been charged which helped with yields has slipped somewhat.
When you can fill it up with full fare passengers it makes money, get below about 75-80% LF and it burns through any profit real quick.

[Plazbot]

what a idiot. you can't fly two airplanes behind each other. the jet wash would be to strong.

[AerialPerspective]

Maybe because you have to pay for the goddamn aircrafts in the first place?

The same reason why everyone don't already own an electric car even when the cost per mile is less than 10%(!!!!) of a petrol/diesel engine?
No such thing as 'aircrafts' the plural is 'aircraft'. Just sayin'

[LeadSled]

Papabellum,
Quite so, my omission, and it looks like one of the soon to be ex-SQ A-380s will have the doubtful distinction of being the first one "parted out".
At least there is still a small secondary marked, for freighter conversion, for the B747.

Haughtny1
I would agree, but the city pairs with that kind of slot constraint make for a very limited market.
Tootle pip!!

[CharlieLimaX-Ray]

Lufthansa are about to park one, that they lease and it is going to be parted out.

I always thought they A380 was designed to get around the limited slots at Heathrow.

[PoppaJo]

Lufthansa are about to park one, that they lease and it is going to be parted out.

I always thought they A380 was designed to get around the limited slots at Heathrow.

Etihad and Qatar bought them for this sole purpose, they only took a dozen of them. They only fly them to slot or restricted rights airports like Heathrow, Sydney, JFK, Bangkok, Paris.

The onboard product is absolutely sensational from those two. Singapore is about to upgrade the A380 to match Etihads standard which would be the best first class product in the sky.

Meanwhile Qantas does diddly squat. They still haven’t given me a reason to fly them, it’s been 10 years since I flew them overseas.

[swh]

If you replace one large aircraft with 2 smaller ones, won't you need twice the number of crew?

From the same article the reason he can make such a comment is he has made big cuts in staff costs. Look at the articles from last year the crew had to undertake a pay freeze and sign up for 30% lower than the 744 rates to get the 787.

“Obviously the maintenance and fuel costs are good on the 787, but we also have a deal with our pilots to give ourselves 30% more productivity on the airplane," Joyce said. "It's the same deal with the cabin crews and our engineers. That means the economics are a lot better than the A380."

So there you have it, he has said the economics are better than the A380 because he cut the staff costs.

[IsDon]

From the same article the reason he can make such a comment is he has made big cuts in staff costs. Look at the articles from last year the crew had to undertake a pay freeze and sign up for 30% lower than the 744 rates to get the 787.

“Obviously the maintenance and fuel costs are good on the 787, but we also have a deal with our pilots to give ourselves 30% more productivity on the airplane," Joyce said. "It's the same deal with the cabin crews and our engineers. That means the economics are a lot better than the A380."

So there you have it, he has said the economics are better than the A380 because he cut the staff costs.

Now that’s just bull**** right there.

I love this 30% figure plucked from the fundamental orifice.

It’s certainly lower than the 747 rate. As it always should have been given remuneration has historically been based on the size of the aircraft.

Fact is, the dollars on the 787 are a lot better than the similarly sized 767 and ball park on the 330. Given the A330 was itself based on 747-300 plus 3% then it was an aberration anyway.

Just because AJ spruiks bullsh1t to keep the media happy does not make it a fact.

[CurtainTwitcher]

Perhaps he should have been a little more specific: BOLD is my addition to the original quote.
but we also have a deal with our pilots to give ourselves up to 30% more productivity on the airplane, dependant upon sector length.



Note, the vertical scale has been removed, focus on the gap between the two lines. Should the B787 end up doing <14 flight time, his statement is far less credible.

https://i.imgur.com/p3OL3uF.jpg
LONG HAUL EBA 9 EXPLANATORY DOCUMENT 18/06/2015, p82

This document is still available from the AIPA website, alternatively a link was emailed on 18 June 15.

[Dragun]

Why do you think Air New Zealand dumped the last of their four-engine airliners?


It ain't exactly rocket science.

No, but it's very close to it given it's both science and economics relating to gas turbines :}

[Rated De]

"Ultimately we never lost confidence that the 787 was almost the perfect aircraft for Air New Zealand with long routes and relatively small traffic numbers. I think it will prove for Christopher and the team a real economic game changer."Former Air New Zealand CEO Rob Fyfe in JULY 2014...

Ultimately Mr Joyce will never look east for 'airline comparison purposes', as Air New Zealand is way ahead of Qantas.

Taking at face value Mr Joyce's comments is mainstream media procedure. He is never challenged. Sadly QF pilots bought a growth story for the 787 too..It was never a growth story it was a substitution.

Crew cost reductions are the boast, but the real advantage of the 787 is two fold; much lower fuel included CASK and in pulling capacity from the market a better yield premium is possible as a 747/A380 is replaced with a 787

[maggot]

A lot of J seats on the qf 789s. Obviously hoping for that yield... To sub 2 of them for a 380; that makes for a lot of J seats to get that yield. Possible pipe dream... Just hope they don't totally fork the company

[Rated De]

To sub 2 of them for a 380; that makes for a lot of J seats to get that yield. Possible pipe dream... Just hope they don't totally fork the company 5th Nov 2017 05:10Sadly that ship may have sailed, the push of JQ to the max has had little tangible impact. None of their franchises return anything and JQ Asia is still hidden in JQ segment. Share your sentiment regarding J yield. Who remember Red Q, an airline to be based in Singapore, err no Malaysia err...

JQ HK, an airline in one of the world's most expensive cities, lacking the necessary requisites to meet the law of the land with respect to ownership, then partnered with Stanley and Patsie, perhaps not the best company to keep. Hastily abandoned and never spoken of again.


Dubai cost QF lots of passengers, BITRE data shows it clearly, a nett loss of circa 400,000 passengers from QF metal in the first year. No change to any revenue, as indicated on another thread, it appears that Qantas got nothing..Now a return to Singapore is seen as an advance?

A three billion bailout, then a recanting, only to be 'transformed' and no media ask the question, was this the same Qantas that was 'terminal' in 2011? Personal riches from an interesting 'transformation' and no one, not even the regulator asks a cursory question.

The rising tide lifts all boats, hopefully the economy doesn't sag or a hasty refit of the 787 will be necessary...

The company I keep is asking the question is how long will Perth London exist, before 'customer preferences' re-route the aircraft to Singapore?

I applaud the audacity of Mr Joyce but many outside Australia are glad he is in charge at Qantas.

[CurtainTwitcher]

“The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it.”

― Alberto Brandolini

The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bull**** (http://quillette.com/2016/02/15/the-unbearable-asymmetry-of-bull****/). Recognise anyone?

[unexplained blip]

Well, AJ will have two 787 soon enough. ZNB rolled off the end of the Everett production line either late Wednesday or early Thursday PST. Either the Everett Delivery Centre is a bit full, or there were too many travelling jobs still to do, because it was still sitting North of the bridge all day.

[Chasco175]

I know what he meant but it is not what he said. Can you even fly " tail to tail".?

[Capn Bloggs]

The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it
Prune quote of the week!! :D:D:D

[Rated De]

The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bull**** (http://quillette.com/2016/02/15/the-unbearable-asymmetry-of-bull****/). Recognise anyone? From memory about half the floors in QCA? Is that still the rock under which they hide?

Nearly a floor of them in Waterside, a bulldust castle for BA. Although they hot desk it to keep pest controllers guessing, they have spread like any other insect..

No risk on the weekends, public holidays etc as the empire is on days off!

Nuking it from orbit is the only way to be sure!

[B772]

unexplained blip:
The contract delivery date for ZNB is 1 December. Lots of formalities both technical and commercial before the release by Boeing and the acceptance by Qantas.

[blow.n.gasket]

What's the hold up ?
Waiting for the glue holding the wings on , to dry , or what ?

[unexplained blip]

Typically 2-3 weeks in the delivery center. System tests, minor rectifications, test flight(s), repairing accidental damage, tyre kicking by the customer...

[B772]

Plus Export C of A, Registration, Insurances and the balance of payment to Boeing.

[wheels_down]

Qatar (and most others) have their aircraft online within 48hrs after delivery.

They are trying to drum up publicity for the thing. It’s not working Alan, your about 600 frames late to the party nobody cares.

[Keg]

Really? For a first of type Qatar have the thing flying revenue services 48 hours after delivery? I'd be very surprised if this was the case. Maybe aeroplane 6 onward will be hitting the line fairly quickly but I don't think the time frame for jets 1 and 2 is unreasonable.

I reckon the PR campaign has been pretty good. Sure, most pilots within the industry see through the spin but from talking with friends and others outside the industry, it's generating huge interest.

[Rated De]

They are trying to drum up publicity for the thing. It’s not working Alan, your about 600 frames late to the party nobody cares. It is the reality that instead of his random walk in Asia with JQ, they could have 'transformed' Qantas with a fuel efficient fleet.

Qantas burns 3.5 million tonnes of jet fuel to fly 150 odd million ASK.
Other airlines can halve the jet fuel required to generate ASK by flying an efficient fleet (long range twins)

Given IATA came up with their targets for CO2 emissions reduction in 2009 (when Mr Joyce was CEO and Chairman of IATA in 2013), Mr Joyce is a day late and dollar short again....

Qantas agreed to IATA's targets:

'The aviation industry recognizes the need to address the global challenge of climate change and in2009 adopted a set of ambitious targets to mitigate CO2 emissions from air transport:



An average improvement in fuel efficiency of 1.5% per year from 2009 to 2020




A cap on net aviation CO2 emissions from 2020 (carbon-neutral growth)




A reduction in net aviation CO2emissions of 50%by 2050, relative to 2005 levels'

With the fuel burn of the current fleet, Qantas will need to retire the 747 fleet, substituting 787 to reduce the fuel carriage and consequently the CO2 emission.to beat the requirements. 'Growth' of Qantas :=

Still can't see $25 million worth of value add, although for sheer audacity he is 'head and shoulders' in the lead! He is hardly 'game changing, not even at the right park! As wheels down stated, air-frames in the 600's are nothing new,except in Australia,( ignoring JQ 788) media foaming at the mouth for a Chairman's lounge membership or Seattle 'junket' ensure he is seen as some sort of visionary...

[mrdeux]

Sadly everyone knows that, but QF have had to suffer under Dixon (who thought that 777s were old hat), and Joyce who sees everything in orange.

Be nice to have a CEO with the best interests of the company in mind, but that will never happen

[AerialPerspective]

Sadly everyone knows that, but QF have had to suffer under Dixon (who thought that 777s were old hat), and Joyce who sees everything in orange.

Be nice to have a CEO with the best interests of the company in mind, but that will never happen
It started before that with JS trying his level best to destroy anything and everything that was credible about Qantas... even wanted to change the name... and they put his name on an aeroplane... unbelievable.

JS started the rot... and the dishonesty post-public float started with the government providing a $1.1bn capital injection (because BA had insisted the business be capitalised adequately rather than the previous 47 years of $164m in total) before they bought in.

Commonwealth cheque for $1.1bn goes into the bank, expands the company's equity from about $900m to $2bn - and it is obviously lower geared and able to pay down debt, so profit increases but JS claimed it was his team's work.

Of course a business' profit is going to double if it gets that sort of capital poured in.

I remember seeing a letter to a customer once that was complaining about seating after turning up last to check in and part of the response was "... I and my team have made great strides over the last 18 months but I cannot wave a magic wand and make 33,000 people work as they should overnight..." Disgusting. Many of us worked very hard but in a letter that most wouldn't have seen, the then CEO dumped on everyone.

I'd seen many letters from Ward and Menadue and they never wrote those things, they'd always support the staff, deal with the customer complaint and then deal with the internal issue separately, not publicly.

So, this attitude is not new, there's been wholesale weasel wording and obfuscation going on since before Dixon and it started the moment the bow-tied clown took over and started the circus act (BTW, RIP JS, I wish he hadn't died but no sense in not being truthful about what he did in reflecting on his time).

(and it's no surprise to anyone that one of the few QF people that survived is now running the opposition into the ground... it would seem he prospered under JS because he said all the right things and now seems to be being shown as not very capable - 5 years, no profit).

The industry is not what it was.