Soaking up the Surplus

[Canada Goose]

Wee Weasley Welshman wrote (see current thread about Daily Mail 20 yo 747 pilot) : "There are currently by my estimation around 800 Frzn ATPL holders in the UK with <500hrs seeking employment. About 70 people a month join them." WWW

So, WWW, my questions are;

1. Any guesstimates on how many ATPL holders are seeking employment ?

and the biggie .......

2. Assuming a substantial bounce back in the industry, let's say by next summer (2003), any idea how quickly the predicted surplus would be soaked up ? (i.e. if your average Joe Blow with fATPL and 250 hrs suddenly graduates what would be there chances, all things being equal, of them finding gainful commercial employment, particularly over say the potential pool of ; 800 + (12 x 70) = 1640 fATPL's). Feel free to make pre 9/11 comparisons.

Thank you.

C.G.

[foghorn]

On average in a static market, pilot retirement creates 300-400 jobs per year in the UK. More like the upper end of that scale over the next few years because of the infamous 'retirement bulge'. This number comes from the CAA's statistics of licence holders by age (which is captured during medical renewals)

Factor on top of that industry expansion/contraction and deduct any net migration to the UK job market from other JAA nations (usually incoming rather than outgoing for political, cultural and language reasons).

Cheers!
foggy.

[fcom]

Well according to the latest CAA figures which are 2 yrs out of date,there were less than 1000 additional ATPL/A holders between 94-97, but between 97-00 there was a further increase of 3000. Total increase in professional licence holders over this 3 yr period total in excess of 3500, so I reckon a fair guess judging by the amounts going through the exam halls could well be in excess of 5000 over the last 5 yrs. Just how many are still looking for work is anyone's guess.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'd say there about 800 frzn ATPL's out there who are committed to getting a flying job and actively looking. There are a lot out there who have the exams and some ratings but who have effectively given up. Similarly there are a significant number of no-hopers who have ticked all the boxes but won't get a job unless the market returns to the heydays of pilot shortage which is a long way off and they never last for long.

I would guess recovery will start for non-type rated pilots - barring war in the Gulf in 6 months time - in the New Year of 2003.

Such recovery is likely to be in the order of 300 pilots a year rising the next year to the 400 - 500 mark as many airlines have over contracted and the retirement bulge is real enough.

All in all it will take 4 years, maybe 5 until we reach the levels we had pre-Sept 11th.

Probably we'll then have a good 5 years or so of expansion and then the 10 year cycle will hit again :-( This industry loves its 10 year cycle.

WWW

[Canada Goose]

Thanks all for the replies, particularly WWW.

"There are a lot out there who have the exams and some ratings but who have effectively given up. " ........ how sad ! I hope I don't end up eventually in this category, or god forbid the, "significant number of no-hopers who have ticked all the boxes but won't get a job unless the market returns to the heydays of pilot shortage " :( .........but hey, that's life !!

Cheers,
C.G.
;)